• Jurickson Profar: switch hitter, 111 OPS+ last year, 94 lifetime. He fits the Jays MO as he has had as his #1 position in different years 2B, LF, SS, 3B and played 10+ games in one season at 1B, CF, RF, DH, and PH at some point of his career. But last year was a LF/DH after playing all over the place in 2021 (1B/2B/LF/CF/RF/PH 10+ times each). Not a 'wow' bat by any stretch but someone who fits the mix/match style the Jays love. He opted out of his $7.5 mil guarantee for 2023 with the Padres hoping for more as a free agent. Last year was his only year of 2+ WAR (3.1). I see him as a low odds guy but one to keep an eye on.
• Robbie Grossman: switch hitter, 80 OPS+ last year vs 101 lifetime. Peak of 128 in 2020. LF/RF who has played CF but not since 2020. Coming off a sub par year he might be cheap and switch hitting off the bench would be nice. 2021 was his only year as a 2+ WAR player, poor defense has hurt him a lot.
• Michael Brantley: LH hitter, nearly a Jay a few years ago, LF/DH, 125 OPS+ last year, 117 lifetime. I see him as high odds just due to the Jays liking him (and Springer pushing for him).
• David Peralta: LH LF, 109 OPS+ last year, 111 lifetime, could be solid, but nothing special.
• Joey Gallo: LH LF/RF 79 OPS+ last year, 109 lifetime, had trouble in both NY and LA after being a solid hitter in Texas. Could be a solid get, but I'd be nervous after the disaster in NY. One where the hitting coach has to be confident he can bring him back to his old days. Might be wanting a one year 'prove myself' deal.
• Wil Myers: RH RF/1B/LF who can play 3B if needed (not advised), 111 lifetime OPS+ vs 108 last year. As a RH bat he'd mix well with KK - one all bat, one all glove. Had a $20 mil option for 2023 but the Padres opted out of it. If no one gives him a mega deal he might sign late cheap.
• A.J. Pollock: RH LF/CF/RF 91 OPS+ last year, 113 lifetime could be a solid replacement for Teoscar with multiple years of 2+ WAR, entering age 35 season. Probably the best choice so far. He declined his $13 mil option ($5 mil buyout) so obviously expects more than $8 mil minimum to break even. No rumors on him on MLB Trade Rumors so he might be getting anxious by now. Depending on deal wanted he might be the best fit.
• Andrew Benintendi: LH LF 109 OPS+ lifetime/last year, just entering his age 28 season so should be after a 3-5 year deal (MLBTR forecast a 4 year $54 mil deal) so I don't see him coming.
• Michael Conforto: LH RF 124 OPS+ lifetime, DNP last year due to injury/poor choices. Wants a 2 year deal (player option year 2). Tempting but won't sign until late unless someone gives him what he wants. I'd lean against it - all risk on the team, not the player.

A fresh bag of baseballs!

* * *

Rogers Centre renovation: Amazing to see the video. All the various projects since Rogers took over SkyDome have proven quite positive. (Buffalo & Dunedin too.)

Jersey advertisements: MLB embraces the inevitable. The Maple Leafs have done well with the Milk promotion. Unsure who might be an ideal sponsor for the Blue Jays.

Payroll: As I gather, the Chairman of the Board aims to create a separate ownership entity for the company's sports assets. Easy to accomplish with full control of the baseball team, but hindered by a limited 37.5 % stake in MLSE. (Apparently Bell & Mister Tannenbaum--the other partners--are not on-board with the scheme.)
To the point: the Chairman could increase discretionary spending if the team is separated from the main corporation, whereby absent those pesky fiduciary obligations to stockholders.
Conclusion: Normally, I never complain about payroll.

Free agency: I do not anticipate much activity here.

Trade market: Over here is where the action will be.

* * *

Rod Barajas once spurned Toronto, but later came around. In that spirit, I may be willing to overlook Kevin Kiermaier's infamous transgression.

Buster Olney had an interesting point in todays column.

An assistant GM took note of something else: the remarkable lack of trades. For all the money thrown at free agents this offseason, there have been only 17 completed trades that involved at least one major league player, most of which have been relatively unimpactful. The homogeneity of baseball's front offices, all of which are adept in analytics and use similar projection models, has made it increasingly difficult to gain clear advantages via trade, the executive noted. It has prompted teams to turn to the open market for most of their needs this offseason, creating the fierce competition that has blown the lid off free agency.

If everyone values players using almost the same methodology then you can only make even value trades where it can be tough to match up exactly. There are no easy marks left out there that you can fleece in a trade.

• Payroll 2007: $81,942,800 5% per year: $178,870,856
• Payroll 2008: $97,973,900 5% per year: $203,680,702
• Payroll 2009: $80,538,300 5% per year: $159,460,325

Toronto is a capital city for the pride movement. How about a home-white jersey with B L U E J A Y S spelled out in rainbow colours?

To be candid, I think it is warranted after the Yunel Escobar fiasco years ago.

The red uniforms need to go.

* * *

Cuttlefish awarded to John Northey. Hit the bulls-eye on Bassitt.

I'm not sure if that's what you mean, but presumably because the low park factor in Oakland, which suppressed the offensive line Bassitt allowed, also suppressed the offence of Oakand's hitters, which leads to the losing record at home despite the better non-park-adjusted pitching line?

With respect to the comment about Bassitt and Kiermaier producing what Teo would have next year, in 2022 Bassitt and Kiermaier combined for 4.3 WAR to 2.8 for Teo by Baseball-Reference WAR and 3.8 to 2.4 on Fangraphs WAR.

There's no guarantee they'll produce the same figures next year, of course, and Teo also missed several weeks with injury, but Kiermaier also only had 203 at-bats in 63 games. I think it's likely Bassitt and Kiermaier produce more than Teo next year, admittedly at the cost of a second roster spot.

It's probably worth including Stripling in that math. It's not clear that the team has made any genuine gains yet from last season.

• Payroll 2007: $189,639,045 5% per year: $413,958,252
• Payroll 2008: $209,081,577 5% per year: $434,665,582
• Payroll 2009: $201,449,189 5% per year: $398,855,615

White — did not look good in his stint with TO

1. Judge: 9 years $360 mil - ages 31-39 - **cough** Pujols. Oh excuse me. That is what I see happening. This is a guy who has 120+ games only 3 times in his career, but 5 times with 5+ WAR - basically if healthy he is worth it, but the Yankees are paying through the nose for his 30's.
2. Carlos Correa: 13 years $350 mil - holy crap on the years. Ages 28-40 - those last few will be bad. Like Judge just 3 years of 120+ games in his career, 4 times 5+ WAR, 3 more in the 3's and 4's. So if you get half a season he is worth it so far, but you better have a good backup ready and I'd worry about how much those injuries will lead to more in the future.
3. Trea Turner: 11 years $300 mil - 4 times with 120+ games, but never 5+ WAR, 8 times 2-4.9 though. Covers age 30-40
4. Xander Bogaerts: 11 years, $280 mil - age 30-41. 8 times 120+ games so fairly healthy at least, twice over 5 WAR, 5 times 2-4.9, his worst years were ages 20 and 21.
5. Dansby Swanson: not signed yet but must be drooling at the above deals. Entering age 29 season, 5 times over 120 games (160+ each of the past 2) but just once over 5 WAR, twice in the 2's, 3 times in the 1's.
6. Carlos Rodon: still on the market, should get a nutty deal in the end for a guy entering his age 30 season with 2 years of 5+ WAR, no others over 2.0, but those 2 5's were the last 2 years.
7. Justin Verlander: 2 years $86.66 mil - ages 40 & 41, won the Cy last year and is being paid in hopes of repeating ala Randy Johnson (2nd at 40, but never got another Cy vote).
8. Brandon Nimmo: 8 years $162 mil - twice over 120 games, once over 5 WAR, twice more over 2. He was very tempting but that covers his age 30-37 seasons and speed/defense are his top skills - the skills that drop fastest. I suspect the Mets will regret this quickly.
9. Willson Contreras: 5 years $87.5 mil - a catcher so lets use 100 games - over that 5 times, 4.1 peak WAR, 4 more in the 3's. This could work out well for the Cards, covering ages 31-35, but still risky.

It will be interesting to see if the FA contracts we have seen this year set a new expectation for all young stars that they should expect a contract that takes them to age 40. Not every front office is going to want to play that game.

MLB's current gaming is a little different. If the Giants think Correa will really be toast by 37, say, they'll just release him and eat the remaining contract, but the amount they eat will not be negligible, even if the Giants have already long gotten the WAR from Correa that they paid for.

I wonder if the owners have all decided, in concert or not, that running out somebody until age 40 is theoretically defensible and that to push them out further would be an obvious invitation for the league to intercede.