Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Given the following season-to-date statistics, which outfielder would you choose?

Name	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA
Player A	189	.322	.377	.466	.843	.286
Player B	244	.335	.381	.409	.790	.273

As an armchair manager you'd probably be well-off with either of these players, but in this case I'm forcing you to make a decision.

If batting statistics aren't enough for you, I'm happy to report that in their time spent in right field, both players have been almost equivalent fielders. Player A has a lower fielding percentage but higher zone rating; both men's range factor is essentially equal.

Have you made up your mind yet? Click the link below to find out which player you now call your own.

If you chose Player B, you chose wisely. He won Rookie of the Year in 2001 and continues to patrol right field for the Seattle Mariners. To put it more succinctly, Player B is Ichiro Suzuki.

If you chose Player A, I commend you. While he received exactly zero Rookie of the Year votes in 2003, he continues to thrill Toronto's fans with his scrappy play. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you Player A: Reed Johnson.

From time to time the old saw "Reed Johnson's future is as a backup player" emerges from the ether, its gaping maw hungry for the career of an integral part of Toronto's lineup. While it's still early in the season, it seems Johnson is likely to improve upon his 294/353/427 line in 114 games last season; in 49 games this season, he's already at 322/377/466, and on a pace to hit 16 homers and collect 92 (!) RBIs. He's also in the top 10 in fielding percentage, range factor, and zone rating.

True, his 3:1 SO:BB ratio is a bit high, but his discipline is likely to improve as he grows as a hitter. In order to grow further, he needs—and deserves—regular at-bats. Luckily there seems to be no danger of him being benched for any extended period of time; Mr. Johnson has definitely established that he deserves his spot in the lineup every day.

Posted by Joe on Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:25 AM EDT.

A backup player | 34 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_t - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#60678) #

Well put. If not for Reed tonight...well, I had my doubts about his hitting third.

robertdudek - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:41 AM EDT (#60679) #

People get these stereotypes in their head: Short guy, old for a rookie, therefore 4th outfielder material. To them I say - just watch them play and if they play themselves out of a job, so be it.

_SNAKE - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#60680) #

Player A: Reed Johnson. For his second year in the bigs, he has the best approach to the game I have ever seen. As his numbers prove that.

_Jobu - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#60681) #

Amen to that Joe. I never understood the constant refering to Sparky as a 4th outfielder. He does not have to platoon and he should not have to look over his back. He is a solid starting outfielder for any team, not just the injury crippled Blue Jays. Not only is he integral to this years team, but I say for all of JP's extended future plans.

_Ron - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#60682) #

There was an article a few weeks back on ESPN mentioning how over-rated Ichiro is.

At that time his ISO power was ranked 183 out of 188 players with a certain amount of AB's.

As you saw today and yesterday Ichiro gets a lot of dirtbag hits and has no power. I wouldn't be suprised if teams started pulling their OF in when he bats.

robertdudek - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#60683) #

That would be stupid. Ichrio has the power to get the ball over outfielders' heads and he's smart enough to change his approach if faced with an extreme defence.

He is what he is: The best leadoff hitter in baseball.

_Sneeps - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#60684) #

Ichiro routinely hits tape measure shots in BP. He was close to being picked for the homerun derby last year, or the year before.

_Ron - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:40 AM EDT (#60685) #

Almost every ML'er can hit bombs in BP. Heck Justin Miller hit a bomb over the monster in BP last week.

Doing it in a game against a ML pitcher is a whole other story.

_Ryan Lind - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#60686) #

First: Just to brag a bit; I knew A was Johnson and B was Ichiro from the stats. I'm not the only one I'm sure, but still. 8-)

Second: I've been a supporter of Johnson since he got here, and I never understood why he gets so much flak. Earlier this season I was talking to people about the Jays and they were complaining a bit saying "Hinske and Phelps have been disappointing ... and Reed Johnson shouldn't even be in the Majors."

Now the first statement is obviously understandable, but the second one just baffles me. What is it exactly that makes people dislike him so?

_Matt - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 05:07 AM EDT (#60687) #

the ? about reed is... who's gonna sit in the outfield once cattalanato returns?

_coliver - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#60688) #

My my my...

Pistol - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#60689) #

He is what he is: The best leadoff hitter in baseball.

I was just sorting through the OBP leaders at ESPN. Johnny Damon leads leadoff hitters, but ranks just 41st overall in baseball.

_Daryn - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#60690) #

For his second year in the bigs, he has the best approach to the game I have ever seen

while I'm not disputing the accuracy of the above, the relevance is in question...
Yes "for a second year player".... but what is more important is his "Arc"... If Rios had the same numbers we'd me MORE excited because he is on the upward swing..

the problem with "old rookies" is when the succeed they tend to flame out fairly quickly. Bob Hamelin, Marty Cordova both won ROY honours at about 26 only to vanish... Pete Walker, Frank Castillo, Ryan Freel(pronounced For-real?) also managed to perform like Rookies while actually at the top of their games...

All that being said....
I'd put Sparky in any (most) line-up in the league... THIS YEAR, and if you are Tosca that is what matters today and tomorrow...

I have the same question about Rios though....
we know Sparky IS hot, and both Cat and Dog were top players before they went down... why start the clock on Rios, (unless you think Cat can play 3rd? or DH)

_Jason Robar - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#60691) #

Mr. Johnson has definitely established that he deserves his spot in the lineup every day.

I agree, to an extent. If there's a lefty pitching he should be starting. But when a righty is starting?

Here's his 2004 splits (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS):

vs. LHP: .361/.405/.583/.988 (72 AB)
vs. RHP: .291/.354/.379/.733 (103 AB)

It also falls in line with his 2003 splits:

vs. LHP: .328/.366/.533/.899 (122 AB)
vs. RHP: .279/.348/.383/.731 (290 AB)

His overall stats have improved this year because his ratio of ABs against lefties has increased. Otherwise, it doesn't look as though he's made any significant improvements.

Jason
(surprised that Ichiro is consistently better against lefties than righties.)

_Jonny German - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#60692) #

It seems to me that there's a lot more talk about the flak that Reed Johnson takes than there actually is flak. A lot of Bauxites have apparently developed a persecution complex on behalf of Reed.
Here are the facts, and my opinions:

2004 AL LF Average: .294 / .367 / .443 (194 AB)
2004 AL RF Average: .282 / .350 / .431 (195 AB)
2004 Reed Johnson: .310 / .364 / .456 (171 AB)

If Reed can keep up his current pace, he's a little better than average. (I calculated a park factor for SkyDome season-to-date, and it appears to be playing as a pitcher's park. I don't really trust that, I think the sample size must be too small).

2003 AL LF Average: .286 / .343 / .458 (636 AB)
2003 AL RF Average: .277 / .339 / .451 (625 AB)
2003 Reed Johnson: .294 / .353 / .427 (412 AB)

Last year, Reed was somewhat below average, with his higher OBP not quite enough to make up for his lower SLG and the fact that his home park favoured hitters.

2004 Reed Johnson vs LH: .361 / .405 / .583 (72 AB)
2004 Reed Johnson vs RH: .273 / .333 / .364 (99 AB)

2003 Reed Johnson vs LH: .328 / .366 / .533 (122 AB)
2003 Reed Johnson vs RH: .279 / .348 / .383 (290 AB)

Reed's value to the team is maximized if he's platooned to some degree. When people say "he's not a platoon player", I agree that I wouldn't strictly platoon him, but I disagree in that I wouldn't play him against the best right-handers.

_Jonny German - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#60693) #

Sorry for repeating the L/R splits.

_Loveshack - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#60694) #

Here's his 2004 splits (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS):

vs. LHP: .361/.405/.583/.988 (72 AB)
vs. RHP: .291/.354/.379/.733 (103 AB)

Ok fair enough. Then the question becomes, who do you platoon him with? Who on the Jays roster is going to consistently hit better than .291 against RHP and can play outfield? And either is as good as Reed defensively, or who's hitting against RHP is so significantly better as to make up for the defensive dropoff?

BTW These are honest questions not me trying to be a smarty pants. I am far from a baseball expert especially when it comes to stats, these just seem to me like sensible questions to ask if you're going to start platooning someone. Honestly, is there someone on the Jays roster that it makes sense to platoon with Johnson? Like a Howie Clark or Pond or someone?

_MatO - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#60695) #

Frank Catalanato?

_alsiem - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#60696) #

I'm with you Loveshack,

Most of the Jays would run to the bank with a .291 average. I think he's above the level of a platoon player as his vs. RHP stats are still average, not terrible. Great comparison on this thread, it proves that a lot of subjective thought goes into analysis. How about the fact that Giambi and Delgado are 1, 2 in allstar voting for 1st base? More than a little subjective.

_Jason Robar - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#60697) #

Then the question becomes, who do you platoon him with?

If we assume that Rios is up for good, then Catalanotto is the obvious answer. If Rios goes back to Syracuse, then I would start Sparky because I don't think there are better alternatives available to the Jays. With that said, not having better alternatives does not mean that Sparky is a good starting corner outfielder.

(Is Sparky in the Jays plans for 2005 and beyond? Or does Wells/Rios/Gross push him into a reserve role?)

Jason

_Jobu - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#60698) #

If Rios develops his defence the way he's projected too and the jays hold on to sparky, I think toronto fans could be spoiled by amazing OF D for years to come.

Joe - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#60699) #

http://me.woot.net
not having better alternatives does not mean that Sparky is a good starting corner outfielder.

Your logic is sound, but your implication is that Reed isn't a good starting corner outfielder. I think an above-average defensive outfielder with about average (or slightly better) hitting ability for his position is a good starting corner outfielder. What's your take?

_alsiem - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#60700) #

Is Sparky in the Jays plans for 2005 and beyond? Or does Wells/Rios/Gross push him into a reserve role?

Perfect example of the man getting no respect. Gross as done nothing to warrant Johson being bumped.

As LL Cool J states:"Don't call it a comeback! I've been here for years!"

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#60701) #

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?2905
Joe, the comparison to Ichiro doesn't tell one much about Sparky over this season because of sample size issues. COMN for Sparky's career record. He is 27. In a full season, his career OBP is .360 and he hits for some power. In the context of the Skydome, this is essentially average performance for a leftfielder, maybe a smidge below. His defensive stats were poor last year, and have been good to date this year. He sure looks good out there.

Johnson could be either a starting corner OF, or a super back-up of all three OF spots. This really depends on Gross' development. It is not clear yet whether Gross will produce more or less than Johnson. It is also not clear whether a Gross/Johnson platoon would ultimately be a more effective use of resources than either out there on his own. One thing is for sure, once Gross arrives, on a daily basis, the outfield will not have Dave Berg in it, and no one will complain.

_Nigel - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#60702) #

I'm one of the people who have been saying that Johnson is really the right handed half of potentially one of the best outfielders in the game Johnotto. I think the splits above illustrate the point. The idea that Johnson should not be in the majors is ludicrous. He's outstanding versus lefties and can play a significant role for any club getting 300 or so AB's a year in that role. As a full time corner outfielder I think he's stretched. Over a full season I suspect that he would be a below average corner outfielder offensively. To be fair, he's only had just over one season's worth of AB's in the majors so you never know. The only good thing about injuries is that you get to find out the answers to a few of these questions.

_Cristian - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#60703) #

The situation becomes much clearer next year, even if Gross warrants a major league job. I find it funny that people are suggesting Reed getting bumped for Gross. Up until now, Gross has been a pure platoon hitter. I guess this answers another question because, to me, Gross is Reed's perfect platoon mate. I'm not suggesting that Reed only play against lefties. With a learning Rios in right, Reed can get some at bats there as well. As well, I think it would benefit Wells to have a day off every once in a while. The bottom line is that in the course of a season, there are more than enough at bats for 4 outfielders, especially in a DH league. I'm not even counting injuries, which as we all know too well this year, can have a huge effect on what the daily lineup looks like.

As for this year, why argue whether Reed deserves an everyday job when injuries dictate that he'll have one for the foreseeable future (I believe that when Cat returns, he should take some DH at bats from Phelps). In the future, when more options present themselves, we'll have more information on Reed to make a better decision.

However, if Berg gets more leftfield starts, you can toss my argument out the window--it'll join me because I'll be jumping out of windows myself.

Craig B - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#60704) #

I think one of the reasons that people see Reed Johnson as a 4th outfielder is that on really good teams, championship teams, the kind we're used to seeing on TV in October, there is frequently a player of Johnson's approximate ability filling that role, as fourth outfielder and one of the primary pinch hitters, who is sometimes a defensive replacement for a slower slugger or sometimes a platoon player versus lefties.

The Marlins last year had Juan Encarnacion (whose stat line takes a different shape but is about the same player).

The 2002 Angels had Orlando Palmeiro (not quite as good as Reed).

The 2001 D-Backs had David Dellucci (and also Danny Bautista).

The 1999-2000 Yankees had Ricky Ledee and Shane Spencer
(not quite as good as Reed), and actually started Paul O'Neill, who was the same sort of player but lefthanded.

These types of players tend to be squeezed into a backup role for teams who are contending for a championship, usually by a rent-a-bat of some kind (in Encarnacion's case, by a young phenom power hitter). They are certainly good enough to start for an average club, and add a lot of value in that role, but since they usually can't (or don't) play much up the middle they are often the first player on the block when a team wants to upgrade its offense.

I like Sparky, a heck of a lot, and I hope he continues to play the way he has.

_Jason Robar - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#60705) #

Craig sums up why I think that Sparky is best suited for a 4th outfielder role. If he gets 300 AB with the Jays in a 4th outfielder role, I would not object.

I like Sparky, a heck of a lot, and I hope he continues to play the way he has.

And I agree with this as well.

Jason

_Rick - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#60706) #

There is another way to look at the split stats. The Jays faced a lot more lefties in May(at least it seemed to me, especially with those times they played KC) than they did in April.

Reed's stats in May are also significantly better than those for April. Now is this because he hits lefties better? Or was Reed just slumping in April? I remember reading somewhere, I think 'twas on one of Fordin's notes, that Reed was saying he had corrected something he was doing in his swing. Thus from this perspective, Johnson's split stats for the year could actually just be the combined effect of facing more righties when he was slumping, and facing more lefties when he fixed his problem.

I do appreciate that Reed's stats for last year do indicate he is better at hitting lefties, and this would seemingly answer this question. I am just offering food for thought. And, in any case, right handed batters are supposed to hit lefties better than righties.

_Fawaz K - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#60707) #

If the rest of the club starts knocking the ball out of the park, I see no need to platoon Sparky. His OBP against RHP is hardly woeful; the concern lies in his SLG%. As a leadoff man his OBP is more critical and after his bunt on Percival I've come to believe that he can get on base at will. Defensively he's an upgrade over most lefties (just from observation, I don't know if the stats back it up) and while he hasn't got the power you'd like at the position, the same can be said for almost every spot in the Jays' lineup. At least they're getting above average offense at CF and 2B, and if the rest of the team comes around, I think that the look Sparky gives them complements the rest of the lineup well.

_Anders - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#60708) #

Im not sure if this got mentioned, but in my mind, the reason people keep talking about Reed being a plantooner is because we have two good of's coming up. That being said, I dont see why Rios will stay in the bigs when the Cat comes back.

It makes me sad to think that one of either Catalanatto or Reed will probably not be around next year (and my moneys on Catalanatto)

_Anders - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#60709) #

_GregH - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#60710) #

One other factor outside of Reed's stats - he has become a bit of a fan favourite.

My sons (8 & 9) and I started to love him at the Father's Day game last year, with the lead-off and walk-off home runs. We had the opportunity to meet him at one of the GM dealership autograph sessions last year and found him a very personable young man, who actually talked to my boys (who both play baseball) as if they were real people. He even listened to the 9-year-old's stories about his rep team (the Bolton Braves) who did go on to win the Ontario Baseball Association Championship in their division. My boy always talks about how he wants to play like Sparky.

Games that we go to (8 so far this year) the people around us like him and always clap and cheer loudly for him.

I say keep him as long as we can - his attitude about the game has got to help the team.

_Nigel - Wednesday, June 02 2004 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#60711) #

I think its almost a certainty that Johnson will be around next year. This is a financial issue if none other. Johnson is still a full year away from having arbitration rights after 3 years. He will still be getting something fairly close to league minimum next season. No matter how you view his production (even negatively) to get his production from a corner outfielder making around league minimum is excellent value for your money. Reed will be around next year (unless he's added into some trade). Where the rubber will hit the road is when his salary demands go up through arbitration. Deciding what his "value" is may be tough. Hopefully by that time we'll know whether he's "just" an excellent 4th outfielder/ platoon partner or a full time player.

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