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You may have heard that Astros outfielder Lance Berkman will likey miss the start of next season s he need 5-6 months of rehabd after tearing his right ACL while playing flag football.

While perhaps this opens the door for Richard Hidalgo to return to Houston, it raises this question: what single player can any team out there least afford to lose to injury (i.e., without compensation)? Take into account their ability to replace the player (either with bankroll like the Yankees or with a ready-to-step-in player, perhaps even like Jason Lane in Houston). And don't only consider statistics ... intangibles matter, too. That's what makes this opinion rather than a simple measure of "Above Replacement Level" players.

Question of the Day: What single player's off-season, season-ending injury would most cause you to cringe, "Ouch, their 2005 is over"?

San Francisco: Barry Bonds, natch.

Who else?
QOTD: Cue "The Replacements" | 100 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jim - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 09:59 AM EST (#18796) #
Roy Halliday?
CC Sabathia?
_Daryn - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:11 AM EST (#18797) #
IMHO, Halliday makes no different, the Jays 2005 is already over.

How about Santana??
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:12 AM EST (#18798) #
I think that even with Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia, their respective teams are a long shot at best to compete for their division.

At the beginning of 2004 I would have said it would be tough for Oakland to replace one of their big three (specifically Tim Hudson), however Tim Hudson went down for a period, Zito was inconsistant and yet they were still in it until the end.

Thus my pick for now is Johan Santana, if he went down, I would write off the Twins for 2005.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:17 AM EST (#18799) #
Looks like I took just a little too long to make my comments.

Nice work Daryn, I agree 100% :)
_Mick - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:21 AM EST (#18800) #
I guess that's an interesting twist to add to the question, Daryn. I don't know if I agree with you; Halladay might be the diffeerence between another unbearable season for Jays fans and a salvagaeable one, but there are probably situations out there where losing a key player -- say, Mike Piazza in NYM -- would elicit the reaction, "that's too badm but, eh, that's the difference between 73-89 and 71-91."
_larryB - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:35 AM EST (#18801) #
How about the Dodgers losing Gagne? Their whole future changed when he emerged. For that matter any "automatic" closer is probably one of the largest difference makers on a team from a psychological aspect as well as wins and losses. Yankees wouldn't be the same team without Rivera or someone just as good.
_Noah - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:39 AM EST (#18802) #
How about the Cubs losing either prior/wood.... oh wait nevermind.

I'd have to say that the braves would be in tough if John Smoltz went down for the season. He really is the core of their bullpen and I think they'd fall apart without him in there.
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:52 AM EST (#18803) #
Barry Bonds.

I don't really have anything else to add.
_Tassle - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 10:58 AM EST (#18804) #
I think he's asking for players other than Barry Bonds, since he's the overwhelmingly obvious choice.

I'd say Jake Peavy in San Diego.
_Pumped 4/05 - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:15 AM EST (#18805) #
Hey Guys,

Kind of off topic, but does anyone have any info on the Jeff Blair article in todays Globe? Stupid insider edition, like I'm, gonna pay $5.00 to purchase the article.

Off topic # 2 - Does anyone else find it strange that no one has any idea what J.P. is up to, or what his plans are. I think we may be very surprised by the team he ends up fielding. Also, re: Miguel Batista, J.P. say he still wants another starter. Does this mean we are going to be overpaying for a mediocore closer, or is it more likely that Batista will be moved?
Mike D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:28 AM EST (#18806) #
Pumped, I read the Blair column on a flight this morning. From what I can remember, Blair suggested the following:

1. Batista's role is still undetermined for 2005.
2. JP believes that a healthy Vernon and a healthy Doc will do about as much as any offseason additions to improve the club.
3. The Jays will target Koskie and Todd Walker, but both of them are hoping to re-sign. The Jays might have better luck with Matt Clement, who has an excellent relationship with Arnsberg.
4. Blair writes that Godfrey has been pressuring JP to find a closer once and for all. Blair suggested that JP might not, in his heart of hearts, want to splurge on a closer or trade Hinske. Still, he may do both at the winter meetings for "political" reasons.
_mathesond - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:31 AM EST (#18807) #
http://www.mathesond.mindsay.com
Without Guerrero, ther Angels are just another nice, high-payroll team good enough to miss the wild-card by about 5 games. Of course, they could always try to patch things up with Guillen...
Mike D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:34 AM EST (#18808) #
I can't even imagine how Seattle would score runs without Ichiro.
_Pumped 4/05 - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:55 AM EST (#18809) #
Mike,

This is strange for several reasons:

JP has said numerous times that he wants one more starter. To me, this suggests that Batista is as good as gone. If they had faith in his abilities as a closer, I would think that they would have announced that, that will be his role for /05. I don't understand why Godfrey or anyone else in the front office would be pushing for a closer at this point in the re-building process.

I hope that J.P has some kind of a secret plan to knock us all off our
socks..I'm starting to get worried about this offence.

It seems very strange to me that no one has heard anything about a back-up plan in case Delgado does not re-sign. He must have something cooking with someone.... We know that the F/A list is not that great.

Okay,....am I allowed to have a second question of the day?

I'd like to hear peoples predictions as to who will be playing first base for the Jays next year.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 11:58 AM EST (#18810) #
I'd like to hear peoples predictions as to who will be playing first base for the Jays next year.

Scott Spezio
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 12:23 PM EST (#18811) #
I'd like to hear peoples predictions as to who will be playing first base for the Jays next year.

Honestly, I'm going to go with Delgado. Maybe I'm crazy, but I really do think he wants to stay (his talk about the large Latin contingent in Baltimore could have been meant to drive up his asking price), and with Godfrey getting involved personally in the negotiations it seems like the organization wants to keep him. On a bit of a side note, does this situation seem to anyone else like Godfrey and the higher-ups doing a bit of an end run around JP, who has never seemed particularly hot on keeping Delgado? Anyway, I would really like to see him stay, though at a reasonable price.
_Jim - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 12:34 PM EST (#18812) #
'I think that even with Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia, their respective teams are a long shot at best to compete for their division. '

Well no kidding, but good teams are usually deep teams - that's the nature of baseball. Besides the obvious player in San Francisco there aren't a lot of teams that live and die on one player.

Minnesota's season is far from over if Santana gets hurt. They did win the division last year by around 10 games (I'm way to lazy to look it up). Chicago isn't going to be any better based on the history of their front office and it's not like Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City are going to storm the gate.
_Pumper 4/05 - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 12:34 PM EST (#18813) #
Lee,

It does seem like they're doing an end run around JP. I think that it's justified as Godrey has to consider, and, live with the consequences, of things like public perception, attendance, ect...

I hope Delagado is back as well, but I'm not holding my breath. A part of me thinks it would be better if Delgado moved on, while another part says "If not Delgado, then who?"
_BguyRed - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 12:35 PM EST (#18814) #
I don't think that he will be, but a guy that I could see JP targetting is Choi in LA. He has a trading partner there, and Coi is the right type of player, walks and such and LA seems to have soured on him already. Of course going throught the cubs marlins and dodgers, maybe they are right and he doesn't have much of a future, but my opion is he does!
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 01:12 PM EST (#18815) #
I think he's asking for players other than Barry Bonds, since he's the overwhelmingly obvious choice.

Yeah, I think that was obvious by the way he phrased the question, and I feel stupid for having missed it.

I'll steal an idea and go with Gagne then.
Pistol - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 01:25 PM EST (#18816) #
3. The Jays will target Koskie and Todd Walker

Todd Walker? That seems odd to me, no?
_Cory - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 01:48 PM EST (#18817) #
The obvious choice for first base is Mo Vaughn, err make that DH
_Hamboy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 01:57 PM EST (#18818) #
Just wondering about Berkman and 'Stros for 05 season....
With Berkman down for month or two in the beginning of the season, shouldn't Jason Lane fit in there rather nicely, than trying to assume huge salary of Hidalgo? I think, Lane is more than just 4th outfielder, given regular playing time, I think he has potential to be Berkman-esque outfielder.

And my thought on QOTD, IMHO, I don't think pitcher fits the question. Starting pitcher, starts 30-35 games in 162 game season, which is roughly 20% of all the games the team plays, which in turn pitcher's contribution to the impact on the team is 20% or less on team's win total. Whereas every day player might have chance to be a bigger impact on team's win total. Just a thought.

As for my answer, I think Vlad is critical to Angels success in 05.
_NIck - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 01:58 PM EST (#18819) #
I highly, highly doubt that DePodesta has soured on Choi. He's too smart for that.
_Mick - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:07 PM EST (#18821) #
Starting pitcher, starts 30-35 games in 162 game season, which is roughly 20% of all the games the team plays, which in turn pitcher's contribution to the impact on the team is 20% or less

Not precisely true. If a great starting pitcher consistenly gets into the eighth inning, say, then he saves the team's bullpen for those other games he is not pitching in. It's rolling effect, but it's real.
_Nicholas - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:08 PM EST (#18822) #
1B = Erubiel Durazo. Clev may be better than people think. Is Derek Jeter a BAD choice???
_Ryan Lind - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:09 PM EST (#18823) #
Probably.

If Jeter went down, the Yanks would just move A-Rod back to SS and sign Beltre.
_Sean - TBG - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:14 PM EST (#18824) #
http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
To answer your question Hamboy (and becuase I can't copy your text), pitchers, although they play in fewer games than position players have a much greater influence on the course of a game. I'm not sure exactly how it translates but a top starting pitcher is about as valuable as a top position player.
Mike D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:16 PM EST (#18825) #
Congratulations to Jason Bay, the NL Rookie of the Year!
_Hamboy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:17 PM EST (#18826) #
Not precisely true. If a great starting pitcher consistenly gets into the eighth inning, say, then he saves the team's bullpen for those other games he is not pitching in. It's rolling effect, but it's real.

Hmm... I don't know... given that a great starting pitcher wins every start he makes and goes 9 innings in all his start, his direct contribution to the teams win total is 20%. Also, given that it's a team of complete replacement level players, except for that great pitcher, the rolling effect of rest bullpen is almost even whether rested or not. Which would mean, the great pitcher's contribution is exactly that 20%, in a perfect world.

Whereas great hitter in a team of replacement level players, might have more of an impact, through playing everyday, as oppose to contributing every 5 days.

Just a rambling thought....
_Ryan Lind - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:20 PM EST (#18827) #
Your Rookies of the Year:

AL

Crosby
Takatsu
Cabrera (Daniel...)

NL

Bay
Greene
Otsuka

How the hell does Daniel Cabrera get the third place finish over Zack Greinke? Whatever. Congrats to Crosby and Bay.
_Cristian - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:20 PM EST (#18828) #
Bobby Crosby won the AL Rookie of the Year award with 27 out of 28 first place votes. The only other person to garner a first place vote was Shingo Takatsu. Hmmmm...anyone want to wager that the errant misguided vote came from Batter's Box favorite Joe Cowley of the Daily Southtown?
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:21 PM EST (#18829) #
Just going by your logic here, but since a hitter is only one batter in a line-up of nine, he can then only represent 11% of the teams offense. While a pitcher that makes 36 starts represents 22.2% of the starting pitching staff.
_Vernons Biggest - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:28 PM EST (#18830) #
How come i dont tear my ACL when i play flag football. Are athletes becoming more injury prone these days, so injury prone that even the small things can hurt them?

eg: Wade Boggs breaks his leg (correct me if im wrong) while putting on his cowboy boots.
_R Billie - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:30 PM EST (#18831) #
But in the real world not all bullpen arms are the same. Even on bad teams some arms are better than others. And no matter the quality of the arms you'd rather have them performing well rested and strong rather than fatigued and weak.

But even placing that aside, on the offensive side, a player may contribute everyday. But how many plate appearances does he get in a year? How many batters does a good starting pitcher who logs a lot of innings face in a year? I think they're more comparable than one might assume on the surface.

Let's take 2003 where Halladay logged 266 innings. He faced 1071 batters over the course of the year who hit a paltry .247/.275/.389 off him.

Compare that to Delgado who had 705 plate appearances, about as many as a cleanup hitter can expect. He hit very well of course at .302/.426/.593.

Now who was more valuable? It's not quite as obvious now. Yes Halladay's performances were limited to every fourth or fifth day, but Delgado's good performances were not perfectly distributed among the games he played. There were plenty of games where he had no influence on the result.
_Hamboy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:33 PM EST (#18832) #
Okay... my logic is that in a perfect world, a perfect pitcher would pitch for 9 perfect innings per start for 30+ starts and 30+ win for the team of complete replacement level players. 30+ wins for the total win total.

A perfect hitter in perfect world, would go 4 for4 every game he starts, and every hit would be of home run variety in a team of complete replacement level players.

Given that replacement level batters will all bat .250/.300/.400, the impact of a great hitter of 1.000/1.000/4.000 would greatly impact the win total of rest of the pitching staff of .500 pitchers.
_Vernons Biggest - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:40 PM EST (#18833) #
To answer your question Hamboy (and becuase I can't copy your text), pitchers, although they play in fewer games than position players have a much greater influence on the course of a game. I'm not sure exactly how it translates but a top starting pitcher is about as valuable as a top position player.

Very True. Not to mention that your ace, is your stopper of losing streaks (something we had alot of last year), and your starter of winning streaks, someone you can look to and know he'll get the job done.

With a Halladay/Lily 1/2 punch next season, if Halladay stumbles for a game, Lily can pick up the slack for the next game, something we didnt necessarily have last year.
Pistol - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:43 PM EST (#18834) #
There were plenty of games where he had no influence on the result.

And there were probably a lot of games where Delgado played well and the team still lost.

As R Billie points out a top pitcher will have more opportunities to have an impact as a top pitcher will have 1000 ABs and a top hitter will get 700 ABs (admittedly ignoring defense here).

It's why I've always felt that ignoring pitchers for MVP is silly.
_Fozzy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:49 PM EST (#18835) #
QOTD - Two words: Mariano Rivera.

If the Yanks don't make any big upgrades this year, after Gordon it's looking pretty sketchy down there.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:52 PM EST (#18836) #
If it is announded tomorrow that Mariano Rivera will miss next season, I would still think they would be the favorite to win the World Series. Therefore, I don't see how you can pick Rivera or any other Yankee.
_Mick - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:56 PM EST (#18837) #
If it is announded tomorrow that Mariano Rivera will miss next season, I would still think they would be the favorite to win the World Series. Therefore, I don't see how you can pick Rivera or any other Yankee.

Only after they traded for Trevor Hoffman AND Troy Percival, but tha was part of the QOTD setup -- ability to replace -- so I think Demarco is right here.

The Yankee loss that would easily be the most disastrous is Joe Torre, especially with Willie across town now.
_Hamboy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 02:59 PM EST (#18838) #
The Yankee loss that would easily be the most disastrous is Joe Torre, especially with Willie across town now.

I would have to disagree.... I think biggest loss to the Yankees would be G. Steinbrenner, not Torre.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 03:03 PM EST (#18839) #
Only after they traded for Trevor Hoffman AND Troy Percival

Yes, my comment assumed that the Yankee's would replace Rivera, however, I probably should specify those details.

I am still going to stick with Santana as my pick, I really think without him the Twins would suffer more than any other team losing a player. Vlad would be my second choice.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 03:08 PM EST (#18840) #
Pumper,

It does seem like they're doing an end run around JP. I think that it's justified as Godrey has to consider, and, live with the consequences, of things like public perception, attendance, ect...

I agree completely. As great an offensive player as he is, it may not make strict baseball sense for a team with the Jays' budget to bring Delgado back even at a considerably reduced rate (say in the $12-14 million per year range), but in terms of PR/marketing and the history of the franchise, he is very important. I think this is also what Godfrey believes.

I hope Delagado is back as well, but I'm not holding my breath. A part of me thinks it would be better if Delgado moved on, while another part says "If not Delgado, then who?"

Right. Carlos certainly has deficiencies in some areas and is expensive, but if you remove that constant presence from the franchise and that offensive force from the lineup, things look a lot different. And IMO, that difference is not for the better even if not resigning him would mean more room in the budget to fill some holes with solid mid-level free agents.
_Tyler - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 03:35 PM EST (#18841) #
Can one of you Delgado supporters do the math for me, and explain to me how "from a PR perspective" this makes sense for the Jays? I just don't see it.

Let's say that Delgado costs 10 mil, and the average Jays patron spends $20 at the ballpark, counting his ticket and food. That's 500,000 tickets that have to be sold just to break even on the cost of having him. IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. And that's without adjusting the figures to reflect that he's paid US currency, and the Jays take in Canadian currency.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 03:53 PM EST (#18842) #
DeMarco I hate to make a selfish comment but did you get the Scott Speizio playing 1st for the Jays in '05 from me? I suggested that on this website in August....It just seems weird that you and me both came up with the same dude.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:04 PM EST (#18843) #
did you get the Scott Speizio playing 1st for the Jays in '05 from me?

No, I don't really think it will be Speizio, but he's the kind of hitter J.P. likes (slow, mediocre and white).
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:07 PM EST (#18844) #
No, I don't really think it will be Speizio, but he's the kind of hitter J.P. likes (slow, mediocre and white)

Exsqueeze me?
_Pumped 4/05 - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:08 PM EST (#18845) #
Tyler,

I must admit that when it comes to math, statistics, and sabermetrics, I'm clueless.

I can't justify re-signing Delgado when it comes to a cost vs. value standpoint. I just think that there are a lot of intagibles, public perception being one of them.

By letting Delgado walk, the casual fans read a great deal into this.

A. Rogers won't spend the money to get a winner

B. The Jays will suck this year without Delgado

C. The Jays will never compete with the Sox and Yanks

D. The Jays are destined to become like the Expos

Now, to most of the fans on here, these seem like ridiculous statements; but remember, we're talking about casual fans here.

Public perception plays a huge part in attendance figures. And no offence to anyone, but Toronto has got have the biggest bunch of bandwagon fans out there.

I'm not advocating keeping Delgado simply for public perception, but I would not be the least bit surprised to hear statements like this if he did walk.
_Sean -TBG - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:08 PM EST (#18846) #
http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Tyler,
think the average fan spends a lot more than $20, as all 100 and 200 level seats are a lot more than that. Even if half the ticketholders have $7 seats the crazy-expensive ones would bring the price up a lot more. Also, you're not factoring in season's tickets, TV and radio revenue etc. There are a lot of ways for a team to make money.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:11 PM EST (#18847) #
Exsqueeze me?

That was another joke, from the 'White Jays' article. I guess it's too soon to make jokes.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:16 PM EST (#18848) #
Tyler,

I can see your point as well. What I am saying is that, as the longest tenured Jay and most likely the best offensive player in the history of the franchise (at least since I started following the Jays in the early 80s), Carlos is the most marketable player on the team and the "face" of the franchise. This is especially true as far as those in TO who are not hardcore baseball fans are concerned, and those are the people the Jays have to attract. I just think the team is a lot more marketable to the city in general with Carlos than it would be with the 2 or 3 guys whose salary would replace his if he walked. Remember, the Jays are going to have the same budget with or without Delgado and presumably are going to spend all of it, so this argument is not a matter of "does having Delgado bring in $10 million in extra revenue," but rather a question of "does having Delgado bring in more revenue than having the player(s) whose salaries would replace his". Also, remember that marketability of the team concerns not only ticket sales but also ratings on Sportsnet, which I'm sure is a consideration. Of course, what the impact of losing Delgado would be on all this obviously can't be quantified until it actually happens (if it does).
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:17 PM EST (#18849) #
Pumped,

Good points.
_DeMarco - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:19 PM EST (#18850) #
Winning games are more important to the casual fan than keeping Delgado. Of coarse, winning with Delgado would be the ideal situation.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:23 PM EST (#18851) #
DeMarco,

True. The above is only part of the argument for keeping Delgado. I personally believe that they are also better off keeping him from a competitive standpoint, as long as the price is reasonable (i.e. at least a few million a year less than he's making now), than with the two or three extra guys they would probably otherwise sign if he walks. This is certainly debatable though.
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:25 PM EST (#18852) #
You don't have to cover 10 million to pay for Delgado, only the difference between that and whatever they'd pay Durazo or whomever. This replacement also needs to be included in the number of wins, etc.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:28 PM EST (#18853) #
Paul D,

Right. Like I said, the Jays are basically going to spend whatever the budget is (US$53 million I suppose) anyways, so it's just a matter of whether they are better off with the best club they can put together within that budget including Delgado vs. the best they could without him.
_Pumped 4/05 - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:40 PM EST (#18855) #
Lee,

Thanks, you too. I'm sometimes not very good at articulating my posts, mainly for lack of time. I don't usually post on here, but find myself checking in at least a couple times a day.

The great thing about this site is a lot of differing oppinions and some pretty good points to back them up.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:47 PM EST (#18856) #
It all depends on who they sign if they don't get Delgado. If they are able to pull something off and get 4 good players somehow than how can the Blue Jays be worse off.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:56 PM EST (#18857) #
It all depends on who they sign if they don't get Delgado. If they are able to pull something off and get 4 good players somehow than how can the Blue Jays be worse off.

This is probably the biggest question. By spending the money they may use to re-sign Delgado, could the Jays instead get maybe 2-3 good players who could, on balance, help them more than Delgado? I happen to think not.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:56 PM EST (#18858) #
I thought that Bauxites would be interested in this....I don't know if someone has already reported it

The San Diego Padres traded one of their extra outfielders, Terrence Long, to Kansas City for left-hander Darrell May and right-hander Ryan Bukvich on Monday.

The Royals also obtained right-hander Dennis Tankersley.

May will give the Padres a starter who has averaged closed to 200 innings the last two seasons, while Bukvich gives the Padres a power arm out of the bullpen.

May went 9-19 with a 5.61 ERA in 31 starts in 2004. He threw three complete games, including a five-hit shutout of the Baltimore Orioles on June 9.

May led the Royals in wins and innings pitched for the second consecutive season. He threw 186 innings last season and 210 in 2003, when he was 10-8. Over parts of six big league seasons with four teams, May has a career record of 25-39 with a 4.98 ERA.

Bukvich appeared in nine game for the Royals last season, going 0-0 with a 3.68 ERA and one save.

Long batted .295 with three home runs and 28 RBIs. He and catcher Ramon Martinez were obtained from Oakland in November 2003 for centre fielder Mark Kotsay.

Tankersley went 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA in nine games, including six starts, last season.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 04:59 PM EST (#18859) #
Lee, I am starting to lean towards your mindset, but lets wait until the deals are done to figure out whether the Blue Jays are better off or not. We owe it to JP to give him a shot at making the team better without him.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:03 PM EST (#18860) #
Pete,

We owe it to JP to give him a shot at making the team better without him.

And conversely, JP owes it to us and the organization to fully consider whether the team is likely to be better off with or without Carlos in light of the moves he would likely be able to make in lieu of re-signing Delgado...
_Tyler - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:07 PM EST (#18861) #
The only way I see Carlos making a difference at the box office is if the choice is 67-94 with him or without him. I'll still take a 90+ win team without him to sell more tix. In terms of Sean's comment attacking my average ticket price, I think it's pretty much in line when you consider the number of 2$ seats, freebies, and Star Pass holders who are included. The seats down low may cost a lot less, but a ton of them are season ticket holders, who I suspect will come with or without Carlos. How long they'll support a losing team, even one featuring Carlos Delgado is anyone's guess. The same argument goes for TV and radio fees; a winning team will bring in more. If Carlos can be fit into a 50 mil winning team, great, but I don't think he can. I have my doubts about whether a guy like Halladay can fit into a 50 mil winning team as well, if that makes anyone feel better. This isn't about me not liking Delgado, it's about me not thinking you can win on 50 mil competing against the Yankees and Red Sox when you're buying baseball skill at a fair market rate.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:14 PM EST (#18862) #
Lee,

True man you hit it right on the head. I would be ecstatic to see Carlos back. I honestly cannot picture in my mind what it would be like to see him in another uniform, and see the Jays without him on first base.

I will tell you what I think. I think we are turning a page in Jays history if he doesn't come back. I think without Delgado, the Blue Jays have finally shed the last piece from their 1996-2004 past. It will be a new feeling to this 2005 team, finally a team that JP can work with. A team that can address and show its long sought after 2nd ace. A team that can finally find 4 guys in the bullpen that can dominate teams in late innings (even those as mighty as the Yankees and Red Sox.) There is reason to be concerned, but people (not you) saying that the Blue Jays are toast without Carlos need to turn the page. Lets see what happens without him. I think it will be a fresh new start not seen around here in a while.
_Magpie - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:23 PM EST (#18863) #
Why do the Royals want Terrence Long? Why would anyone even want him around, never mind giving up a rotation starter?
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:28 PM EST (#18864) #
Tyler,

If Carlos can be fit into a 50 mil winning team, great, but I don't think he can.

I wonder that myself, I just personaly happen to believe that the money is better spent on Carlos than on two or three other guys of somewhat lesser ability. I certainly could be wrong though.

Pete,

I will tell you what I think. I think we are turning a page in Jays history if he doesn't come back. I think without Delgado, the Blue Jays have finally shed the last piece from their 1996-2004 past. It will be a new feeling to this 2005 team, finally a team that JP can work with. A team that can address and show its long sought after 2nd ace. A team that can finally find 4 guys in the bullpen that can dominate teams in late innings (even those as mighty as the Yankees and Red Sox.) There is reason to be concerned, but people (not you) saying that the Blue Jays are toast without Carlos need to turn the page. Lets see what happens without him. I think it will be a fresh new start not seen around here in a while.

Very good points. As much as I want to see Carlos stay, if I were convinced that the Jays could, by passing on him, instead add a top-quality #2 starter, some solid bullpen guys, and enough offense to replace (or come close to replacing, anyways) Carlos' production, then I would say give it a shot. I would be willing to try it even though, as a long time and somewhat nostalgic fan, I honestly don't want to "turn that page" on the team's history. Certainly, I would agree that if the Jays could sign, say, Clement, Benitez, and either Durazo or Glaus in lieu of retaining Carlos, it would make a lot of sense, but I don't know if that is realistic. However, I am also a believer in intangibles (yes, even the Jeter mystique), and I think there is something to be said for keeping around a guy who means as much to the franchise's history as Carlos has, even if it doesn't outwardly seem to make the most sense. I know this is somewhat contradictory, but just one man's opinion... :)
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:36 PM EST (#18865) #
All in all, I suppose it boils down to a matter of how much is added to the team by whomever could be had for the money that is currently being paid to Carlos versus how much is lost by losing him. This would seem quite simple, however, the problem is in assigning the correct value to each of these. Perhaps I underestimate the other pieces which could be had for the money which I would advocate using to pay Delgado, and overestimate the value of having carlos in a Blue Jays uniform...
_Tyler - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:38 PM EST (#18866) #
I'd rather see the Jays go forward with a 40mil payroll, and flexibility to add if necessary than to lock up Delgado for 3 years, and be in such a strapped position. The problem is, this isn't just a one year window you have to look at. If the Jays sign him, they might be screwing themselves for down the road. I don't really think that they can win next year regardless, but in 2006 or 2007, they might be in a position where they're better off spreading that money around.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 05:41 PM EST (#18867) #
Lee

True man. I contradicted myself right off the bat.

Lol...damn it...why can't we just have 100 mil, 50,000 at Skydome every night, millions in tv and souvenirs, have people all over the place with Delgado, Wells, and Halladay jeresy's on, have our own "Blue Jay Nation" and have this country give a rats ass about baseball again? Damn it.
_Lee - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:03 PM EST (#18868) #
Tyler,

Good point. That is another option to consider.

Pete,

You're right, especially about the country giving a damn, LOL. Honest to God, I have lived in Canada all my life, and I have no love for the US whatsoever, but I cannot understand the sporting preferences of people in this country. I mean, is there any other nation in the world whose sporting networks actually devote significant time to the absolutely incomprehensible and God-awful sport of curling? And am I the only person in the country who can't stand hockey? I honestly have never watched a complete hockey game in my life, it's just unbearably boring to me, and I wish that TSN, Sportsnet, et al. would just shut the heck up about the lockout and talk about sports that are actually being played. I mean, 2004 may have been a flop, but what the Jays did in 2003 was amazing, and no one except the hardcore baseball fans (who go to the games anyways) seemed to care. I don't get it. At least the Raptors are doing well in terms of fan interest even after two absolutely terrible seasons and a 01-02 season that wasn't so hot either (the low attendance on Sunday excepted)...
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:24 PM EST (#18869) #
I don't like hockey, but curling is fantastic, both to play, and as a spectator sport.

Yesterday's Raptors game was their lowest attendance of all time.
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:24 PM EST (#18870) #
I don't like hockey, but curling is fantastic, both to play, and as a spectator sport.

Yesterday's Raptors game was their lowest attendance of all time.
_Prisoner of Ham - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:29 PM EST (#18871) #
Much as I love Delgado, the fact remains the same factors existed when he was signed to the ungodly contract face of the franchise, great talent, how can we win without him, PR message to the fans and the result was four years of varying mediocrity. I can understand Ricciardi wanting to try a different approach.

I think it's arguable, and I'd like to see a study, that three $5 mil bats (for example) in a lineup do more to create scoring opportinuties than one $15 mil bat surrounded by $1 mil talent.
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:30 PM EST (#18872) #
I mean, is there any other nation in the world whose sporting networks actually devote significant time to the absolutely incomprehensible and God-awful sport of curling?

The Scandanavian countries, I'm sure. Curling's quite popular there, judging from the fact that those are usually the countries who Canada usually faces in the finals of the world championships.

Besides. Curling is perfectly understandable, and not anywhere near the level of godawful bloody-mindedness. If you want pointless, then I direct your attention to cricket. Incomprehensible, that.

To a large degree, the popularity of a given sport (from a viewing perspective) is mediated by the number of people who actually *play* that sport.

Football, basketball, and baseball have huge amounts of participation in the US, at all levels. This translates into equally huge numbers of viewers, irrespective of the product displayed on the field of play. The NFL has wildly profitable TV numbers, but unless the Vikings, Colts, or Chiefs are playing, then the quality of play is usually crappy. Unless you like 'defensive' struggles like Cleveland/Baltimore last night.

Because we live next to the 900lb gorilla, Canada gets saturated with those sports as well.

It just so happens that hockey and curling are quite a large part of the social fabric of this country - because people play them. You play the game, you like watching the game. Thats why TSN cant shut up about the NHL. They recognize that there is a great demand for hockey content, and thus feed the masses. Just because you dont give a whit about anything played on ice doesnt mean that there isnt a market for it.
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:33 PM EST (#18873) #
Yesterday's Raptors game was their lowest attendance of all time.

I firmly believe that this reflects the fact that the Rap's have come off of two particularily craptastic seasons in which they played some pretty unwatchable ball, an off-season in which their biggest free-agent acquisition was someone they tossed into the scrap heap 2 years ago, and their marquee star petualantly demanding a trade.

Which once again proves the adage. In Toronto, if you aint the Leafs, you better damn well win if you want people to show up.
_Four Seamer - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:45 PM EST (#18874) #
I'm glad to see so many passionate (and lukewarm) defenses of curling on this site! It is a wonderful game, and if every person who derides it took the opportunity to give it a try, they certainly would gain a whole new appreciation for the sport.

But that said, what business is it of anyone's whether people in this country like it or not, and the extent to which they're committed to it? Whether you like a certain sport or not is simply a matter of taste, and why people think it appropriate to casually slur another person's (or in this case a nation's) hobby is beyond me. If you want to create new fans, win them over. Don't tell them they're stupid because they like curling (or cricket, for that matter).
_Rob - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 06:53 PM EST (#18875) #
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/awards/y2004/index.jsp?award=roy#voting
Bobby Crosby won the AL Rookie of the Year award with 27 out of 28 first place votes...anyone want to wager that the errant misguided vote came from Batter's Box favorite Joe Cowley of the Daily Southtown?

Cowley also gave his 2nd-place spot to Ross Gload, I'm sure. COMN for voting. I'm actually shocked he didn't vote this guy third.
_Christopher - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 07:30 PM EST (#18876) #
It is a wonderful game, and if every person who derides it took the opportunity to give it a try, they certainly would gain a whole new appreciation for the sport.

So true. Even my hockey-obsessed friends in high school took a liking to it.

Regarding Delgado, I'm leaning towards letting him walk, or hopefully sign before the arbitration deadline. Most of all, I'm just looking foward to the whole will-he-stay-will-he-go saga to be over.
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:00 PM EST (#18877) #
Im glad to see so many passionate (and lukewarm) defenses of curling on this site! It is a wonderful game

Oh. Dont get me wrong. I love curling. Curl every week. In fact, the only thing I hate about curling is the fact that when my weight is on, my aim is off, and vice versa :)
_Scott Levy - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:06 PM EST (#18878) #
"Hey, I like Carlos and I would like to see him come back," Ricciardi said. "But it has to be at a number that makes sense for us."
.........
Ricciardi said the Jays have yet to set a payroll for 2005 but it will be about the same as last year -- in the $50-52 million range.

And forget about the two-budget theory, that there would be a higher one to accommodate Delgado and a lower one if he signs elsewhere.

"That's nonsense," Ricciardi said. "There's only going to be one budget."


Delgado's not coming back folks, and Ricciardi's quotes proclaiming interest in bringing him back are about as sincere as an "I love you" from a gold digger.

Durazo is a Blue Jay. No doubt about it. The only question is what package of players will be going to Oakland. The A's have to cut salary, and the Jays have been more than willing to take some from them to fill a hole (Lidle in '03).

My plan? Trade Batista to Texas for Mench. Trade for Durazo (prospects most likely). Trade Hinske to the Reds (might have to eat salary or add a Chacin like prospect to entice them). Sign Koskie. Try VERY hard to sign Clement (or go back in time and don't burn bridges with Escobar, but I guess it's too late for that). Sign Todd Pratt for catcher. Sign Venafro as the lefty. Use the remaining money on a right-handed reliever, and go with Speier as closer and Frasor/Ligtenberg/FA as the RH set-up/middle relief portion.

Now, was that so hard?
_Paul D - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:19 PM EST (#18879) #
I firmly believe that this reflects the fact that the Rap's have come off of two particularily craptastic seasons in which they played some pretty unwatchable ball, an off-season in which their biggest free-agent acquisition was someone they tossed into the scrap heap 2 years ago, and their marquee star petualantly demanding a trade.

There are cetainly very good reasons for the fact that they had their lowest attendance ever yesterday, but that doesn't change the fact that it was their lowest ever attendance.
_Matt - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:22 PM EST (#18880) #
Hey there's a good article about the offseason written at rotoworld by Matthew Pouliet (or however you spell it :) )..... He doesn't predict a very bright 2005 for our fightin' jays though :( His trade predictions are fairly reasonable though...

http://rotoworld.com/content/features/column.asp?sport=MLB&column=14
_G.T. - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:22 PM EST (#18881) #
Besides. Curling is perfectly understandable, and not anywhere near the level of godawful bloody-mindedness.

Part of what has made curling a bigger TV sport in recent years is the miking of the rinks. Watching a telecast, listening to both the commentators and the teams discussing strategy makes it rather easy to "understand".

(Of course, miking the Scandanavian teams doesn't really help me all that much. :)

I can't see it ever happening, but wouldn't it be amazing to hear a manager and pitching coach discussing how much they think a pitcher has left? (Hey, it worked for the XFL, didn't it?)
_FTP - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:30 PM EST (#18882) #
If the Jays did trade for Durazo and sign Koskie, combined salary being roughly the same amount the team is willing to give to Carlos alone ($8.0-9.0 million), are the Blue Jays better off? That's a .900 OPS DH and a .800-.850 OPS third-baseman. Seems like a pretty good trade off to me.

Unfortunately, it might be harder to find a sucker for Hinske's contract than it will be to sign Koskie and trade for Durazo.
_Matt - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:32 PM EST (#18883) #
I'm actually sold on the raptors as a playoff team... The 3-0 record plus the level of competition in those games have me convinced that this is a 6-8 seed playoff team at least....

The key so far is the newfound depth... They're playing 10 guys with Araujo not even having been broken in yet... Solid minutes with a balanced attack... And there's production to be had out of each participant in the frey... I'm certainly digging that aspect...

And of course, You've gotta talk about what Rafer Alston is doing... great ball control with a refined shot to boot. No turnovers in 34 minutes last night in that type of offense is an extremely impressive feet....

The only question mark, is Loren Woods... Whether this team cracks the 5th seed and threatens for an Atlantic Div. crown rests upon his ability to hold down his spot in the starting lineup so as to allow Bosh to play 4... We saw him hold his own against Yao Ming and Ben Wallace, but he seemed to comepletely fall apart in the Portland game which turned out to be a wild last second three point miracle instead of a handy stable victory like the first two games were.... What Woods does is essential...
_Matt - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 08:51 PM EST (#18884) #
What about this idea for a trade.... Hill for Travis Hafner 1-1... I would not mind that bat on the lineup... not one bit.... Cleveland wouldn't mind having a bat like that coming from SS either I would think....
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 09:05 PM EST (#18885) #
What about this idea for a trade.... Hill for Travis Hafner 1-1... I would not mind that bat on the lineup... not one bit.... Cleveland wouldn't mind having a bat like that coming from SS either I would think....

The Indians already have a pretty good young bat coming up at SS - Jhonny Peralta who put up a .322/.382/.489 line in Buffalo. And only 22.

I just dont see the Indians doing Hill for Hafner straight up. Not only did Hafner hit the snot out of the ball, but he still made the MLB minimum last year. Yeah. It was his age 27 season, but you got to think that he's gonna get better.

The AL Central is weak enough, that Cleveland actually has a shot at things next year should Minny stumble. They arent going to be trading off Hafner for someone that wont contribute until '06, let alone next year.
_jsoh - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 09:10 PM EST (#18886) #
I'm actually sold on the raptors as a playoff team... The 3-0 record plus the level of competition in those games have me convinced that this is a 6-8 seed playoff team at least....

But only because the Raps are in the (L)Eastern Conference. If they keep this kind of play up all year, then yeah. They can make it back to the playoffs. But then again, they played absolutely lights out for 5-6 games after the Rose/Marshall/Davis/Williams trade last year, and then immediately went in the tank for the next 15.

I think that mid-January will give a better idea of where they're at. I'm definately encouraged, but its a little early to be ordering those playoff tickets.
_R Billie - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 09:22 PM EST (#18887) #
I saw one of the Raps' last pre-season games. I was quite impressed by the way they were moving the ball and more importantly, using the clock when they established a lead. They could still get better at it but I have a feeling they will experience fewer late game collapses with their new play style. Vince was dishing the ball off very well also becoming more of a playmaker.

A lot of what the Jays do might hinge on what happens with Hinske and Batista. It looks like they're interested in keeping Batista though I guess he'd be very difficult to move at this point. They should still be able to get good value out of him, particularly if he has a half-decent year closing.
_Pete Warren - Monday, November 08 2004 @ 09:42 PM EST (#18888) #
haha whoever jumped on the mike venafro bandwagon??
thats a good one to be om ;)

i predicted he would be a jay a few weeks back
_Caino - Tuesday, November 09 2004 @ 12:07 AM EST (#18889) #
"If the Jays did trade for Durazo and sign Koskie, combined salary being roughly the same amount the team is willing to give to Carlos alone ($8.0-9.0 million), are the Blue Jays better off? That's a .900 OPS DH and a .800-.850 OPS third-baseman. Seems like a pretty good trade off to me.

Unfortunately, it might be harder to find a sucker for Hinske's contract than it will be to sign Koskie and trade for Durazo."

Unless you buy into the Kearns for Hinske/ Chacin. I dunno if I do. Seems pretty lop sided. But it's hard to gauge Chacin's value across the league. here;s to hping though.
_Eric - Tuesday, November 09 2004 @ 12:32 AM EST (#18890) #
Why do the Royals want Terrence Long? Why would anyone even want him around, never mind giving up a rotation starter?

I'm just going on opinion here, but I'd have to think Baird was going after Tankersley, with Long as a contract to eat.

It's actually a decent deal for them, as Tank was/is a pretty well regarded prospect, and can actually throw hard (something the Royals desperately need as a counterpoint in their rotation). In their situtation, that young arm with potential is a lot more valuable in their rotation than May.
_Vernons Biggest - Tuesday, November 09 2004 @ 01:01 AM EST (#18891) #
There are cetainly very good reasons for the fact that they had their lowest attendance ever yesterday, but that doesn't change the fact that it was their lowest ever attendance.

Hey, if 13,000 is your lowest attendance for an NBA game over a period of ten years, consider that a good thing. Numerous times did teams , such as the Clips, Hawks, etc, get a solid 5-8,000 fans a game.

The lowest PAID attendance for a Jays game this year was 13,007 and it happened on two seperate occasions.

If the jays don't show at least SOME progress next year, I fear we will fall into Tampa Bay territory averaging, 17,000 a game especially without a returning Delgado, or noticeable FA such as Koskie.
_Lee - Tuesday, November 09 2004 @ 10:38 AM EST (#18892) #
VBF,

Hey, if 13,000 is your lowest attendance for an NBA game over a period of ten years, consider that a good thing. Numerous times did teams , such as the Clips, Hawks, etc, get a solid 5-8,000 fans a game.

And it's not only bad teams like the Hawks and Paper Clips. The Nets didn't average much better than that when they were winning back to back Eastern championships and were clearly the class of the division. The support for the Raps in TO really is tremendous, I just wish the same could be said for the Jays.

The lowest PAID attendance for a Jays game this year was 13,007 and it happened on two seperate occasions.

That's actually a bit better than I would have guessed. If the Jays commanded the same ticket prices that the Raptors or Leafs do, they'd be set...

jsoh,

But then again, they played absolutely lights out for 5-6 games after the Rose/Marshall/Davis/Williams trade last year, and then immediately went in the tank for the next 15.

Good point. But I think Sam Mitchell deserves a lot of credit for what's happening now, and I think he will be able to sustain the positive attitude around the team (Kevin O'Neill was never much for positivity, which I think was part of the problem last year). With Bosh's continued development and a very solid PG in Rafer, I think the Raps have an extremely good chance to make the playoffs, and not as the 8th seed either, provided that Vince continues to play close to the way he has thus far.
_Lee - Tuesday, November 09 2004 @ 10:44 AM EST (#18893) #
My plan? Trade Batista to Texas for Mench. Trade for Durazo (prospects most likely). Trade Hinske to the Reds (might have to eat salary or add a Chacin like prospect to entice them). Sign Koskie. Try VERY hard to sign Clement (or go back in time and don't burn bridges with Escobar, but I guess it's too late for that). Sign Todd Pratt for catcher. Sign Venafro as the lefty. Use the remaining money on a right-handed reliever, and go with Speier as closer and Frasor/Ligtenberg/FA as the RH set-up/middle relief portion.

Sounds pretty good to me. I'm far from sold on Speier as a closer, but I doubt the Jays would want to spend for a relatively big-money FA closer like Percival or Benitez, and barring that he's probably the best option. If the Jays could make all that work (especially Clement, I think that's the key), it would be great. As for Escobar, I still think he's a head case, and I'm glad that the Jays aren't the team paying him big dollars.
_Jim Acker - Wednesday, November 10 2004 @ 03:43 PM EST (#18894) #
Any interesting stories, articles rumours?
_Jim Acker - Wednesday, November 10 2004 @ 03:44 PM EST (#18895) #
and does a new thread start when this one hits 100?
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