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A game and a series to forget.

Blowouts have no redeeming qualities. Your team is out of the game very early on and the bullpen suffers because the team tends to go through several relievers. The game has no entertainment value and you feel distressed no matter who the opponent is. You either curse the Yankees or the Red Sox for having near-limitless payrolls and being perennial playoff teams or you curse the fact that you are getting blown out by a bottom-feeder who you should be beating. Basically, the only good part of it is seeing seldom-used players get a chance to come off the bench. However, the excitement felt at seeing an unexpected Ken Huckaby double is almost deadened by the fact it means nothing at this point. A Huckaby double in a tight game is something completely different, but here it just feels hollow; like garbage-time in the NBA. The only joy blowouts provide are in the simple pleasures of watching baseball itself or in seeing a highlight reel play in the midst of a mass of meaningless at-bats. However, in the middle of a long season that is rarely enough to sustain interest.

Obviously the Jays are in a disappointing place right now, having gone 2-5 to start a long 13-game road trip against some weak opponents. Many hoped the Jays would be at 5-2 at this point, or at least 4-3. Even given the difficulties of travel, the Jays had 4 games against the third-worst team in the American League, and didn’t even have to face Zito. However, there is certainly the opportunity to get out of this trip with a 6-7 record if they can win the series in Houston and Chicago.

I decided to look at the blowouts the Jays have lost this year. Using the arbitrary qualification that Toronto had to be losing by at least six runs after four innings, I determined this was the fifth such game the Jays had lost this year.

Here is a look at the games in chart form.

Date		Opponent	Starter	Score*	SD**	Pitchers*** 		L5 Record**** 		
April 18	Red Sox		Bush	9-3	4	4 (BL, JF, VC, JS)	2-3
April 20	Yankees		Lilly	7-1	6	4 (PW, MW, JF, JS)	2-3
May 7		White Sox	Lilly	10-2	3	4 (MW, PW, VC, SS)	3-2
May 27		Twins		Towers	7-1	5	3 (JF, JS, SS)		4-1
June 5		Athletics	Gaudin	12-2	8	5 (SD, PW, SS, JF, JS)	2-3
*After 4 innings of play

** Smallest run differential between the two teams after the 4th inning.

*** Other pitchers the Jays used during the game. Denoted by their initials.

**** Jays record in the five previous games.

Not surprisingly, there’s no discernable pattern to any of this. Sometimes it seems to be forgotten in this day and age, but as Tom Candiotti said on one broadcast this week, “That’s why you play the games.” Paper matchups and patterns don’t determine everything, and there’s no pattern here which makes predicting when the Jays will collapse any easier. The only pitcher to have two terrible outings was Lilly during his notable slump period. Chacin and Halladay are the only two starters to not have a collapse. There is no discernable pattern in the Jays record coming into blowout games, and we can’t even blame them on a game reporter as they’ve occurred once each on a Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The most troubling thing about blowouts is probably their effect on a team’s bullpen. Having to use most of a team’s relievers can affect their bullpen usage for a couple of days down the road. However, the Blue Jays have never been forced into a discernibly difficult situation following a blowout for a couple reasons. Firstly, three of the four previous blowouts were followed by starts from Halladay or Chacin, and in each case the starter went at least six innings. The other start was by Dave Bush where he went 4.2 innings, but was aided by 3.1 innings of relief from Scott Downs. The Jays have never had two drastically short outings in a row.

Secondly, the value of a long man like Pete Walker becomes apparent when looking at blowouts. His ability to soak up three innings in these situations demonstrates value that can’t be measured statistically, as his appearances allow the Jays to only use two or three relievers where they might otherwise need four or five. Also, they avoid stretching someone like Speier or Frasor into a multi-inning appearance, and potentially rendering him unavailable for several days.

Sunday’s disastrous game should not affect the Jays badly for Monday. Chacin is starting and hopefully will give them another strong outing, and the team has Schoeneweis, Frasor, Chulk and Batista available in the bullpen and Walker could probably pitch for an inning if called upon. While the first week of this road trip has not gone as planned, there is plenty of opportunity to build a winning streak at Wrigley, as the Jays face Jon Koronka, Glendon Rusch and Sergio Mitre before heading into Houston, where they’ll unfortunately get Clemens and Oswalt, it looks like.

A's 12, Blue Jays 4 | 13 comments | Create New Account
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Thomas - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#118707) #
Here's a question raised by the last week or so's worth of starting pitching. It's something advocated by Wilner both last night and this morning. In light of the struggles of the non-Halladay members of the rotation, should Pete Walker be given a few starts?
Dave Till - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#118709) #
That's a good question. There are two problems with using Walker, as I see it:

- He might not be able to handle a starter's workload. He's broken down in the past when used too heavily.

- Whose spot does Walker take? All five of the Jays' current starters have pitched well at times (even Lilly) - they're just not consistently pitching well. There's no guarantee that Walker will be any more consistent when hitters start seeing him more regularly.
Dave Till - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#118710) #
Correction to the above: four of the Jays' five starters aren't consistently pitching well. The fifth, of course, is the Doctor. :-)
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#118733) #

Here are the updated team stats courtesy of THT. The Jays' offence is entirely average in all respects, in fact, almost eerily so. Most notably, the team isolated power of .150 is precisely league average. In terms of run prevention, the pitching is average and the defence is well above average.

To improve the offence will be difficult. The single easiest improvement would be to find a backup catcher who can hit better than .130/.200/.152. A realignment to produce a more effective bench would also be useful.

As for the pitching, Pete Walker has pitched pretty much at the same level of effectiveness as he always has, 3.5 walks per 9 and 5.2 strikeouts per 9. The team DER behind him is an exceptional .759. If he's thrown into a starting role, it would be unreasonable to expect an ERA lower than 4.50. To insert him into the rotation in place of Lilly would make sense if it is felt that Lilly needs time in the bullpen to regain his form. As for Towers, it seems that he has lost some velocity since the start of the season, and you'd want to know why.

BCMike - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#118741) #
To me, Walker seems comfortable and very effective in his current role. So the question is, what is the upside of moving him into the rotation? I'm not sure he would be more consistent than the current group of starters, and I'm not sure the starter he replaces would be as effective as Walker in the pen. Basically I think putting Walker in the rotation would be change for the sake of change.

Question for Bauxites... I'm looking for a site that has good previews of the day's matchups. Basically pitching matchups and relevant stats, injuries & roster moves, who's hot/not etc. all of which is presented in a nice format(ie: you don't have to dig around to find all the information). Any recomendations?
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#118742) #
As for Towers, it seems that he has lost some velocity since the start of the season, and you'd want to know why.

My own theory is that he runs down a little bit. He's not the biggest and strongest guy out there. He looks positively scrawny, in fact (compared to the other players, that is. He looks like a decathlon champ next to me.) I've always thought that he tires a little early, once he gets past 80-85 pitches or so. If he pitches well and goes deeper into the game - he had 90+ pitches three starts in a row - he's just not as strong afterwards.

It's possible that what he really needs is to get driven from the mound in the second inning after about 35 pitches. Which hasn't happened in his last few starts. Failing that, maybe just sklp a start entirely.

Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#118744) #
That's a thought. The most intriguing thing about Towers' splits is that he pitches effectively in the first 3 innings, and then fades in the middle, but he hasn't pitched well in relief.

You could try skipping a start with him, like you might for an older pitcher. Or, for the really adventurous, he would make a fine candidate for a tandem pitcher regime. He'd go a maximum of 4 innings (the problem being that he would not be eligible for the win even if he pitched effectively).
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#118746) #
he hasn't pitched well in relief.

It's possible that he's never learned how to get loose quickly.

One day I was in the press box for a Towers game. It was one of his recent losses and I think it was a Saturday afternoon 1:05 start time. It was 12:30, I had time to kill... So I thought I'd take some notes of his warmup routine - how does a starter get ready? To amuse myself, and I thought maybe I'd use the information one day. (I may have planned to compare everybody's routine, I forget!) I lost the notes, but as I recall, it went something like this:

12:30 goes down into the LF corner. Stretches for about five-seven minutes.
12:40 starts playing catch with Huckaby. Easy tosses from about 40 feet.
12:45 by now he's lengthening the distance and throwing harder. Within a few more minutes he's throwing hard to Huckaby from at least 120 feet.
12:50 starts throwing off the bullpen mound. No rush - he throws about five pitches a minute for the next nine minutes (roughly 45 pitches off the mound, for the mathematically challenged).
1:00 walks in from the bullpen
1:05 out to the mound, the standard 8 warmup tosses

Experienced relievers can be ready in less than five minutes, and often need to throw fewer than 20 warmup pitches off the bullpen mound.

JC - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#118747) #
BCMike: It may not have everything you're looking for, but Rotoworld.com is a pretty good source for up-to-date info.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#118755) #
That would explain it. The thing is that Towers' warmup routine evidently works for him. He does pitch effectively in the first 3 innings. So, the best thing is to work with it.

I've seen enough to persuade me that Towers can be reasonably effective for 130 high-leverage innings in a season if he's used carefully. That actually has significant value, provided one is not stuck on the 5 day, 6-7 inning expectation for a starting pitcher. So, you could try skipping a Towers start (maybe Walker gets one), and see how he does the next time through.
BCMike - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#118763) #
Thanks JC, I completely forgot about rotoworld for some reason.
Pistol - Monday, June 06 2005 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#118772) #
"12:45 by now he's lengthening the distance and throwing harder. Within a few more minutes he's throwing hard to Huckaby from at least 120 feet"

I went to a Ravens doubleheader a couple years ago (when AA was New Haven) and Dave Bush pitched the second game and did the routine of throwing close and then moving out while he warmed up. He ended moving out close to center field while the catcher was still on the left field line, and he was throwing them right to the glove from that distance. It was pretty impressive.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 07 2005 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#118816) #
Q and 'Sac used to do that at the Dome. One would stand on the line and would stand perpendicular to the 400ft sign in centre field, or even a couple of steps past it. They'd then toss it to one another and would basically, hit the glove with the other partner not having to move it at all, or only a few inches in some direction. They "missed" a throw when Q had to take half a step to one side. As Pistol said, very impressive.
A's 12, Blue Jays 4 | 13 comments | Create New Account
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