That David Ortiz fella is pretty good.
Could anyone explain why you would throw the ball anywhere near the plate with Ortiz batting? I always thought that you pitched left-handers high and inside. It works against the Dude all the time. Sigh! Go Tampa!
Could anyone explain why you would throw the ball anywhere near the plate with Ortiz batting?
Never mind that, could someone exlpain why Towers was allowed to pitch to Ortiz when you have Schoenweiss available?
And can anyone explain how they get that sweet creamy caramel into the Caramilk bar?
I find it ironic that as this game started, Ortiz was LEADING our Boxcasting "Who will win the AL MVP award?" poll and now he trails, as I write this, by more than 10 percentage points.
Bitterness does not become you, Blue Jay Nation.
Bitterness does not become you, Blue Jay Nation.
First they pour a layer of chocolate into the chilled mold of the top portion of the bar.
Then before all the chocolate hardens, they flip it over, causing the un-hardened chocolate to fall out, there-by creating a cavity for the caramel.
They then flip it back over, and fill the cavity with caramel, followed by another layer of chocolate.
Then before all the chocolate hardens, they flip it over, causing the un-hardened chocolate to fall out, there-by creating a cavity for the caramel.
They then flip it back over, and fill the cavity with caramel, followed by another layer of chocolate.
JP on WWJP was also wondering why SS didn't come in to face Ortiz and said he'll be talking to Gibbons to find out what his reasoning was. Naturally, he was sure to make it clear that he's sure Gibby had a good reason. Personally, I think Gibby's been a little off the last week or so, not handling the 'pen nearly as well as he did for the bulk of the season.
Also notable that he said quite plainly that they plan on bringing Lilly back next year and that Downs will probably be on the team as a long man.
Also notable that he said quite plainly that they plan on bringing Lilly back next year and that Downs will probably be on the team as a long man.
Ortiz another clutch bomb ..... ho hum
WWJP
- "Hudson will be here next year"
- Hill won't be a backup next season. He's either going to be starting or at AAA
- Was about to say something negative about Dunn but he cut himself off because of potential tampering fines
- He did briefly talk about Thome when his name was brought up. Has a little bit of interest but his salary is huge and the Phillies would have to pick up a large chunck of it
- Jays are missing 2 power bats and this will try to be fixed in the off-season. Said it's going to be hard to aquire these type of players through.
- When asked about the Tower vs. Ortiz matchup, he thought SS should have come in. He was going to ask Gibby about keeping Towers in later tonight
- There has been a lack of hustle in some instances this season. He didn't name any players.
WWJP
- "Hudson will be here next year"
- Hill won't be a backup next season. He's either going to be starting or at AAA
- Was about to say something negative about Dunn but he cut himself off because of potential tampering fines
- He did briefly talk about Thome when his name was brought up. Has a little bit of interest but his salary is huge and the Phillies would have to pick up a large chunck of it
- Jays are missing 2 power bats and this will try to be fixed in the off-season. Said it's going to be hard to aquire these type of players through.
- When asked about the Tower vs. Ortiz matchup, he thought SS should have come in. He was going to ask Gibby about keeping Towers in later tonight
- There has been a lack of hustle in some instances this season. He didn't name any players.
So three-fifths of the '06 rotation is presumably set: Halladay, Lilly and Chacin. Assuming the Jays successfully acquire a Burnett or a Washburn, that leaves one spot open for Bush or McGowan, and adios Josh Towers. That's pretty good.
Downs and Batista would be a very nice left-right long-relief/spot-starting combo, and adios the rapidly fading Pete Walker.
Power bats are indeed hard to find, but I'm pretty sure JP can get at least one -- he's got the minor-league wherewithal to make a trade and the payroll room to add salary. A serious run at Aubrey Huff would be nice. My concern with Thome is not just his contract, it's the distinct possibility that he got old sooner than expected.
I would fully expect that any non-hustling players will not be back in 2006.
Downs and Batista would be a very nice left-right long-relief/spot-starting combo, and adios the rapidly fading Pete Walker.
Power bats are indeed hard to find, but I'm pretty sure JP can get at least one -- he's got the minor-league wherewithal to make a trade and the payroll room to add salary. A serious run at Aubrey Huff would be nice. My concern with Thome is not just his contract, it's the distinct possibility that he got old sooner than expected.
I would fully expect that any non-hustling players will not be back in 2006.
Didn't hear WWJP but interesting stuff.
If Hudson will be back, and Koskie is pretty much untradable then the only way Hill plays everyday is to trade Adams. Has JP said anything one way or the other with Adams? Hill going back to AAA seems to be about as dumb a move as possible, as I'd rather see him rotate between DH/3B/SS/2B than waste time in AAA where he could do nothing but regress imo.
Dunn strikes out too much for JP (heck, 195 K's is too much for pretty much anyone).
Who are the non-hustlers? Rios probably, Wells has fallen asleep in the field a few times (allowing guys to get doubles out of singles), not sure who else would fit that description though.
Thome? He'll be 35 next season, he hit 207/363/352 this season over 193 AB's (on DL for rest of season). However, his lifetime averages are 281/408/562 so the ability is there. He has a full no-trade clause. He has 3 years left on his deal which is worth over $14 million per year. If Philly pays almost all of the money owed then it would be OK but otherwise I would hang up the phone when Philly called. Delgado is making about the same over the next 3 years and is the better player at this point.
If Hudson will be back, and Koskie is pretty much untradable then the only way Hill plays everyday is to trade Adams. Has JP said anything one way or the other with Adams? Hill going back to AAA seems to be about as dumb a move as possible, as I'd rather see him rotate between DH/3B/SS/2B than waste time in AAA where he could do nothing but regress imo.
Dunn strikes out too much for JP (heck, 195 K's is too much for pretty much anyone).
Who are the non-hustlers? Rios probably, Wells has fallen asleep in the field a few times (allowing guys to get doubles out of singles), not sure who else would fit that description though.
Thome? He'll be 35 next season, he hit 207/363/352 this season over 193 AB's (on DL for rest of season). However, his lifetime averages are 281/408/562 so the ability is there. He has a full no-trade clause. He has 3 years left on his deal which is worth over $14 million per year. If Philly pays almost all of the money owed then it would be OK but otherwise I would hang up the phone when Philly called. Delgado is making about the same over the next 3 years and is the better player at this point.
Well, I think everyone now realizes what a mistake it was to let Delgado go. I have to admit, by the end of last season, a last place finish, I wasn't too concerned if he left. But now that I realize what a difference he could have made this year, and how hard it will be to replace that bat...
Non hustlers? Wells, Rios, Koskie (jogs, sometimes sacrifices the body at 3rd, sometimes looks like he doesn't want to get dirty), Hillenbrand (jogs to first).
Not that we're religious zealots: But does all the talk of Josh Towers not being back next year go precisely against Moneyball philosophy? It seems people look at Towers with their eyes and think "not a major league pitchers" and disregard his stats. If Towers were 6'4" with a muscular frame we wouldn't be having these constant debates.
I'm guilty of it too. I just think it's interesting.
Non hustlers? Wells, Rios, Koskie (jogs, sometimes sacrifices the body at 3rd, sometimes looks like he doesn't want to get dirty), Hillenbrand (jogs to first).
Not that we're religious zealots: But does all the talk of Josh Towers not being back next year go precisely against Moneyball philosophy? It seems people look at Towers with their eyes and think "not a major league pitchers" and disregard his stats. If Towers were 6'4" with a muscular frame we wouldn't be having these constant debates.
I'm guilty of it too. I just think it's interesting.
I'd agree Keith. However, Towers does require a good defense to be successful and that makes him more available in a trade. To me the non-tender issue is just silly. Towers is very valuable at the moment (guys with 3.86 ERA's don't grow on trees). Looking at his numbers I'd say he has been better than Chacin this year. Just a 6.1 inning spread, in favour of Towers. Less than 1/2 the walks, 8 fewer K's, 2 more HR's, but 32 more hits. Non-HR hits have been shown to largely be luck related so looking at Towers I'd say, going forward, he could be equal to or better than Chacin, even though Chacin is just 25 next year and Towers will be 29 (pitchers are different animals than hitters when it comes to age).
Of note: When Towers was 24 (Chacin's age this year) he was in his first season in Baltimore and was 8-10 with a 4.49 ERA with a W-K ratio of 16-58 over 140 IP giving up 21 HR. Towers is a solid #4/5 starter imo and is well worth keeping around. You know he can provide around 200 IP (given a chance) and if he keeps the ball down he will stay out of trouble. He could easily become a #3 starter if his HR's can stay down. If someone makes a good offer I'd let him go, but outright releasing him? That would just be dumb.
Of note: When Towers was 24 (Chacin's age this year) he was in his first season in Baltimore and was 8-10 with a 4.49 ERA with a W-K ratio of 16-58 over 140 IP giving up 21 HR. Towers is a solid #4/5 starter imo and is well worth keeping around. You know he can provide around 200 IP (given a chance) and if he keeps the ball down he will stay out of trouble. He could easily become a #3 starter if his HR's can stay down. If someone makes a good offer I'd let him go, but outright releasing him? That would just be dumb.
The shift worked perfectly on Ortiz. The bomb he hit went directly over Koskie's head on it's way out.
As for JP saying something negative about Dunn, he's crazy. JP has put together a crappy offense and does not have one player in the minor leagues who can help change that.
As for JP saying something negative about Dunn, he's crazy. JP has put together a crappy offense and does not have one player in the minor leagues who can help change that.
I didn't hear the negative comment about Dunn -- was it negative about him as a player or negative about the Jays ability to get him?
The reason I ask is "Dunn strikes out a lot" doesn't sound like a comment that would cause a problem with the league's tampering rules.
I didn't hear the negative comment about Dunn
He didn't actually make a negative comment about Dunn, although he was on the verge of saying something to the caller before thinking better of it. From the context, it wasn't evident whether he was going to express misgivings about Dunn's utility or his ability to acquire him from the Reds at a reasonable price. He didn't outright deny any interest in Dunn, so it's unlikely he thinks he's a stiff, at any rate.
Over the last 2 years, Ted Lilly's FIP has been 4.88; his ERA 4.66. He has significant arm health concerns. The fact that he is left-handed does not make him a better bet than either of Towers or Bush next year. Any reasonable projection of Towers or Bush would have them performing better than Lilly next year.
The only advantage that Lilly has on them is his higher K rate, but this advantage is a long-term one and is negated by his lack of arm health. The fact that Lilly will earn much, much more than either adds to the imbalance.
The only advantage that Lilly has on them is his higher K rate, but this advantage is a long-term one and is negated by his lack of arm health. The fact that Lilly will earn much, much more than either adds to the imbalance.
Assume JP, contrary to what he's said all year, decides not to resign Lilly or Hillenbrand. Then is JP a liar or a shrewd GM who didn't want to divulge his hand too early? Both?
I vote for option (C) ... a good GM reserves the right to change his mind when new opportunities arise or new information comes to light.
The only reason I ask is that every time JP talks of keeping Shea and Ted, I secretly hope he's trying to up there value in the trade market. I hope we can all call JP a liar next year.
Another thing to consider is Lilly's market value... the smartest course of action may be to trade Lilly because there are GMs who overvalue the Ks and the potential (a baseball player with potential at 29 years old?)... But JP can't exactly go on the radio and say "Our game plan is to trade Ted to the highest bidder".
Towers does require a good defense to be successful and that makes him more available in a trade. To me the non-tender issue is just silly. Towers is very valuable at the moment (guys with 3.86 ERA's don't grow on trees).
I agree with pretty much all of that. The trade issue is complicated. Towers' development this year is largely because he's made a great deal of progress in reducing the numbers of homers he gives up, and I think it's largely a matter of maturity and experience and learning more about how to pitch.
Nevertheless, while he's done a good job in Toronto in 2005, he'd probably be a much better pitcher somewhere else. He remains vulnerable to the home run, especially at the RC. He's working in the one of the better hitter's parks, and more particularly one of the better HR parks in the majors (it's not Chicago or Arlington, but the next group.) Put him in San Diego or Detroit, and he might be an all-star...
But it's hard to use this knowledge in a trading strategy, unless you're the guy going after Towers. And you don't really want the Toronto GM to know what you're thinking...
Ideally, the GM would skate around the question of signing intentions in this kind of case. Something like: "Ted's had a difficult time this year, but we still think that he is a good pitcher. We'll sit down with Ted and his agent after the season and take things from there".
In fairness to JP, it was obviously not his best time. It seemed pretty clear to me listening to him that he disagreed with Gibbons' call with respect to Towers/SS, but he rightly refused to criticize Gibbons explicitly. The man does not like losing, and I do not blame him.
In fairness to JP, it was obviously not his best time. It seemed pretty clear to me listening to him that he disagreed with Gibbons' call with respect to Towers/SS, but he rightly refused to criticize Gibbons explicitly. The man does not like losing, and I do not blame him.
I think Towers would work best in a low HR stadium with good defense. Put him on the Yankees, for example, and he'll look terrible as their defense is terrible. Put him in Oakland though and watch out, low HR park (at least it used to be, not sure if they've done anything to change that lately) with a very strong defense. Send him to, say, Colorado though and he'd be toast.
Towers has been one of the Jays' best pitchers this year. I wonder how much of his success (and that of Chacin, Downs, and pretty much the entire bullpen) is attributable to Arnsberg. The pitchers seem to be playing over their heads, for the most part. Either that or they were underperforming before this year. Of course, we thought that Mike Barnett had transformed the team's hitting after the 2003 season.
I can't imagine any GM offering much for Lilly. Too much baggage.
If Towers is the real thing, and the Jays let him go, he could turn into the next Woody Williams. Just what we need- another ex-Jay taking the majors by storm. You could put together a pretty good team of ex-Jays who are active in the majors.
SPs: Carpenter, Clemens, Escobar, Williams, Wells (Loaiza and Doug Davis could compete for the 4 and 5 slots)
IF: Mike Young, Felix Lopez, Jeff Kent, Delgado (reserve: Cesar Izturis)
OF: Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Jason Werth
That infield is dynamite.
I can't imagine any GM offering much for Lilly. Too much baggage.
If Towers is the real thing, and the Jays let him go, he could turn into the next Woody Williams. Just what we need- another ex-Jay taking the majors by storm. You could put together a pretty good team of ex-Jays who are active in the majors.
SPs: Carpenter, Clemens, Escobar, Williams, Wells (Loaiza and Doug Davis could compete for the 4 and 5 slots)
IF: Mike Young, Felix Lopez, Jeff Kent, Delgado (reserve: Cesar Izturis)
OF: Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Jason Werth
That infield is dynamite.
Great team, the ex-Jays. Wonder what it would cost. Data from http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/
Carpenter-$2,000,000
Clemens-$18,000,000
Escobar-$6,250,000
Williams-$3,000,000
Wells-$4,075,000
Loaiza-$2,900,000
Davis-$2,050,000
Starting 5=$33,325,000, full 7=$38,275,000
Young-$2,575,000
Lopez-$415,000
Kent-$7,350,000
Delgado-$4,000,000 (very backloaded contract)
Izturis-$2,150,000
Infield=$14,340,000 plus Izturis $16,490,000
Green-$7,833,333
Stewart-$6,000,000
Werth-$337,000
Cruz Jr-$4,000,000 (my addition)
Outfield=$14,170,333 plus Cruz=$18,170,333
So without a pen or catchers or DH we are at $61,835,333 Mix in the extra guys listed and you are at $72,935,333
Hmm. Think I can see why these guys aren't all here still :)
Carpenter-$2,000,000
Clemens-$18,000,000
Escobar-$6,250,000
Williams-$3,000,000
Wells-$4,075,000
Loaiza-$2,900,000
Davis-$2,050,000
Starting 5=$33,325,000, full 7=$38,275,000
Young-$2,575,000
Lopez-$415,000
Kent-$7,350,000
Delgado-$4,000,000 (very backloaded contract)
Izturis-$2,150,000
Infield=$14,340,000 plus Izturis $16,490,000
Green-$7,833,333
Stewart-$6,000,000
Werth-$337,000
Cruz Jr-$4,000,000 (my addition)
Outfield=$14,170,333 plus Cruz=$18,170,333
So without a pen or catchers or DH we are at $61,835,333 Mix in the extra guys listed and you are at $72,935,333
Hmm. Think I can see why these guys aren't all here still :)
I'm bringing this over from Primer so don't give me any credit for finding it. It's a pretty funny Blue Jays successories poster. In fact all the team posters are funny.
http://reds.mostvaluablenetwork.com/?page_id=401
http://reds.mostvaluablenetwork.com/?page_id=401
It was a mistake to let Carlos go, but the mistake was made by Rogers, not by JP. Had they decided on the budget earlier the Jays could have made a reasonable offer.
I seem to remember posting last winter that .300 / .400 / .600 hitters don't grow on trees and if you have one, you need to try your best to keep him.
I seem to remember posting last winter that .300 / .400 / .600 hitters don't grow on trees and if you have one, you need to try your best to keep him.
The rest of the team posters in the series Cristian linked to: http://www.red-hot-mama.com/comments.php?id=204_0_1_0_C
Again, credit goes to the creator. I am just the messenger.
Again, credit goes to the creator. I am just the messenger.
It's foolish to pass judgement on moves JP hasn't made yet, but I would be less than pleased if JP resigned Lilly and traded Towers and didn't seriously explore the reverse scenario. Maybe teams will pay a lot for Towers because of his success this year and his price, as opposed to Lilly who is not cheap and who has not been good. But other teams might see Josh as the soft-tosser who couldn't do anything in 2002 and was very mediocre in 2003 and Lilly as a lefty K machine. All I can really say is that since May I have been a lot more confident with Josh on the mound than with Ted.
It was a mistake to let Carlos go, but the mistake was made by Rogers, not by JP. Had they decided on the budget earlier the Jays could have made a reasonable offer.
...and if only Sportco had moved more quickly to sell the then SkyDome, then Rogers could have set their budget.
It would have been great to have the money available earlier. But because Rogers did not have a signed sale agreement with the owners of SkyDome they didn't have the guaranteed extra money available to them, so they weren't going to guarantee extra money to the team. Sales like this fall through all the time over the dumbest of things.
I know, I post this over and over again, but I'm irritated that people continue to accuse Rogers of dragging their feet over the budget and costing the team Carlos Delgado. It didn't happen that way.
...and if only Sportco had moved more quickly to sell the then SkyDome, then Rogers could have set their budget.
It would have been great to have the money available earlier. But because Rogers did not have a signed sale agreement with the owners of SkyDome they didn't have the guaranteed extra money available to them, so they weren't going to guarantee extra money to the team. Sales like this fall through all the time over the dumbest of things.
I know, I post this over and over again, but I'm irritated that people continue to accuse Rogers of dragging their feet over the budget and costing the team Carlos Delgado. It didn't happen that way.
But I think its feasible that Rogers knew that the purchase was going to take place in the forseeable future for a certain amount of money. I understand that there may be a little risk in that situation to give JP the go ahead to resign Delgado, but the reward may well have been worth the risk. I'm sure Ted didn't get where he is today without being aquainted with risk, yet it appears as though the strategy he took was quite conservative.
I don't really mind that the Jays didn't re-sign Carlos D. I think the pricetag (and risk of injury or decline in performance) was too high.
I do wish they'd traded for Carlos Lee, somehow. (Say, thrown League in along with Hinske and Batista.)
That's just hindsight, though. I'm more interested in what the Jays are going to do going forward. I think the team might still be a full year away, and I hope they won't trade a lot of young talent for a slightly-above-average starting pitcher or bat. I think the future of the team largely depends on the development of their young core--including Adams, Hill, McGowan, Purcey, Romero, Banks, Janssen, et al. At the moment they're kind of betwixt and between. If they start trading young talent for a veteran or two, they may find they've jumped the gun.
I do wish they'd traded for Carlos Lee, somehow. (Say, thrown League in along with Hinske and Batista.)
That's just hindsight, though. I'm more interested in what the Jays are going to do going forward. I think the team might still be a full year away, and I hope they won't trade a lot of young talent for a slightly-above-average starting pitcher or bat. I think the future of the team largely depends on the development of their young core--including Adams, Hill, McGowan, Purcey, Romero, Banks, Janssen, et al. At the moment they're kind of betwixt and between. If they start trading young talent for a veteran or two, they may find they've jumped the gun.
But I think its feasible that Rogers knew that the purchase was going to take place in the forseeable future for a certain amount of money.
Not feasible in any realistic sense. They'd been trying to buy the Dome for four years.
And Delgado is 33 years old with another 3 years $48M (gauranteed) on his contract... unless you're telling me that re-signing Carlos would have 100% gauranteed the Jays a World Series banner, we're a long ways off from knowing whether the demand for Delgado was in line with his on-field value to the Jays.
50 million due Delgado in 3 years! completely untradeable now. His numbers this year are not even that good IMO. Compare to his prime numbers. I was so happy he was not resigned, and I still am.
By the way, I think it's pretty bush league of Florida to sign Delagado to that wickedly backloaded contract with only 4M in the first year, then turn around after that cheap year and say they can't afford him.
As for JP saying something negative about Dunn, he's crazy. JP has put together a crappy offense and does not have one player in the minor leagues who can help change that.
I don't for a minute believe that Ricciardi thinks poorly of Dunn. If he were interested in him, as he surely must be, how else would he react in a public forum? It's one thing to make a harmless statement about being interested in an impending free agent (doesn't hurt to let the player know). It's another, altogether, to express interest in a player under contract with someone else. Aside from the tampering issues, you'd only be given Cincinnati more leverage.
I think Towers would work best in a low HR stadium with good defense.
I suggested a Towers for Johnny Gomes trade in a recent thread. I think TB would move him given their glut of OF's and their need for pitching. While Towers may well repeat his 2005 season, I am skeptical and would sell high. Toronto may have a difficult time landing the big bats they need.
If Towers is the real thing, and the Jays let him go, he could turn into the next Woody Williams.
Except that they are very different pitchers. Williams always had good K rates. Towers doesn't.
His (Delgado's) numbers this year are not even that good IMO.
Ignoring the issue of whether Delgado is worth the money he is receiving from Florida, I don't think you can complain about his 301/395/579 line in a pitcher's park.
'50 million due Delgado in 3 years!'
Umm yeah. They didn't need to give him 4 years 50MM, just offer him arbitration.
Umm yeah. They didn't need to give him 4 years 50MM, just offer him arbitration.
Chuck's right on one point. Woody Williams actually had fair (but not good) walk and K rates as a Jay. Towers is more in the Bob Tewksbury, Bill Swift (excellent control, below average K rates) vein, but he strikes out more than they did.
These guys do generally have short peaks of 3-4 years, but can be quite effective. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Towers is even better in 2006.
These guys do generally have short peaks of 3-4 years, but can be quite effective. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Towers is even better in 2006.
Anyone have a chance to check out Dr. Prison Fence's latest mailbag? See this golden nugget of a question asked by a fan?
"I can't understand why Scott Downs is in the starting rotation instead of Pete Walker. Clearly, Walker is a better pitcher with more career wins and a lower career ERA."
Sigh....