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Towards the end of today's game, this exchange happened in the Chat:

CaramonLS: Can you do a comparative analaysis of other teams #3 hitters combined?
Magpie31: When I get home!
CaramonLS: I'd like to see where the Jays rank, because I was going over the teams in the AL Central/AL East... Out of those 10, Jays would rank last.

Magpie delivers! A Data Table, what else!

Anyway, I had a caveat, which I expressed immediately:

Magpie31: It's not so much the batting order spot as his role in the offense. I don't mind a Wells quality hitter batting third. But I don't much like a Wells quality hitter being the best hitter on the team.

See, I naturally suspected that this query had something to do with Vernon Wells. I wasn't born yesterday. Caramon's been posting for a while, and he's very much a root-and-bough kind of guy. He has suggested that Josh Towers isn't exactly the ideal number two starter, and that Vernon Wells isn't exactly the ideal number three hitter. I don't think these are remotely outrageous notions.

However, Caramon's solutions, if I understand him correctly, are to discard these guys - he has suggested not offering Towers arbitration this off-season - and replace them with something better. I agree that it would be a consummation devoutly to be wished if someone better than Towers could be the number two starter: because then Towers could be the third starter. Or fourth! Or fifth! Whatever.

And the same with Wells. I wouldn't want to replace Wells with an ideal three hitter - I'd much rather replace Rios with such a player.

Well, who wouldn't?

But anyway - here are the numbers for all the third hole hitters in the majors this year. They're sorted by Runs Created per Game, which remains my preferred metric, and I'm just using the RC/G figure found on the ESPN splits pages. I don't know that it's using the Runs Created formula I'm using for my next Data Table.

TEAM	          G TPA  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI SB CS  BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS  RC  RC27

St. Louis	150 680 577 123 191 38  2  40 353 114  18  2 .331 .426 .612 1.038 142 9.29
Colorado	147 650 535  89 172 43  1  22 283  82   5  2 .321 .438 .529  .967 123 8.71
Chicago Cubs	149 668 588 115 183 47  3  40 356  88  12  3 .311 .383 .605  .988 131 8.27
Boston	        148 684 567 111 163 33  2  43 329 143   2  0 .287 .395 .580 .975 128 8.07
Philadelphia	149 677 569  97 161 34  3  25 276 104  29  7 .283 .388 .485 .874 114 7.23
NY Yankees	147 670 578 107 166 32  0  33 297 115  11  2 .287 .379 .514 .893 114 7.19
Texas	        149 677 600 103 177 33  4  36 326 130   4  0 .295 .372 .543 .916 115 7.02
Pittsburgh	148 660 571  97 161 42  5  27 294  75  17  0 .282 .371 .515 .886 111 6.95
Atlanta	        149 664 569 100 164 41  2  27 290 104  11  3 .288 .383 .510 .893 109 6.84
LA Dodgers	148 652 549  94 150 31  1  27 264  75   5  2 .273 .379 .481 .860 102 6.59
Florida	        149 669	589  94 175 36  1  30 303 112   1  0 .297 .368 .514 .882 108 6.58
Baltimore	147 655 607  79 181 38  5  29 316 101   9  1 .298 .344 .521 .864 104 6.26
LA Angels	148 662 596  85 179 34  5  21 286 107  14  2 .300 .359 .480 .838 102 6.18
Houston	        149 650 563  87 154 40  3  23 269  85   6  0 .274 .365 .478 .842  98 6.17
Cincinnati	149 675 606  91 191 32  0  23 292  85   2  0 .315 .372 .482 .854 101 6.05
Arizona	        149 676 585  87 160 36  0  23 265  77   4  1 .274 .365 .453 .818  97 5.82
Cleveland	148 658 579  79 159 39  0  23 267  94   0  0 .275 .352 .461 .813  94 5.81
Tampa Bay	149 655 613  82 177 36  5  28 307 108  14  1 .289 .325 .501 .826  98 5.73
NY Mets	        148 659 587  84 165 37  3  17 259  77  21  6 .281 .347 .441 .788  92 5.57
Kansas City	146 639 583  91 168 43  1  21 276  89   4  0 .288 .340 .473 .814  90 5.49
Detroit	        147 660 611  81 179 36  5  21 288  71   1  2 .293 .336 .471 .808  91 5.35
San Diego	147 663 563  83 149 26  4  17 234  70  12  7 .265 .364 .416 .779  88 5.31
Seattle	        148 650 586  98 164 32  1  17 249  87   8  3 .280 .343 .425 .768  87 5.31
Milwaukee	148 656 576  84 150 35  1  20 247  79   2  0 .260 .342 .429 .771  86 5.23
Minnesota	147 661 587  64 159 31  4  11 231  71  15  3 .271 .348 .394 .741  85 5.14
Washington	149 665 581  78 151 37  2  19 249  83   1  2 .260 .343 .429 .772  84 4.98
Toronto	        147 655 608  64 161 30  6  18 257  80   3  2 .265 .307 .423 .730  77 4.41
Chicago Sox	147 650 581  74 139 23  0  28 246  97   6  7 .239 .300 .423 .723  73 4.16
Oakland	        148 667 601  91 151 31  3  14 230  73   1  0 .251 .315 .383 .698  73 4.15
San Francisco	148 652 591  65 140 28  1  12 206  58   2  2 .237 .302 .349 .650  61 3.47
I am still gathering the information on who is responsible for most of these three-spot at bats on each team, and will add that when I have it.
Caramon's Request | 6 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
CaramonLS - Sunday, September 18 2005 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#128264) #
Thanks Magpie!

Well, for Josh Towers would be more of a discard type scenario. But I'll admit he has been plesently surprising for me with his consistancy, and I'll offically rescind my "non-tender Towers statement".

As far as VW goes, yeah I'm just not a big fan of the way he comes up to bat every day. I don't like the hacks he takes, and I don't really like his situational hitting (or lack thereof from the games I've watched).

Now that being said I think Wells has a little more Value in the trade market than he is actually worth. Especially with the Deals being tossed around in ST (Wilkerson being an example, but he has really dropped off this season a fair bit), and I'll admit I'm a little clueless as to what he would fetch now, however with his strong Defense at CF and his ability to hit Homers, I would still think it to be good.

I personally like Wilkerson more than Wells for his ability to actually take some walks, and I think with the Nats desire for a Bigger name player (Gold Glove Vernon Wells is a nice player the fans could have grasped on to), that Johnson could have been nabbed as well in the trade, possibly for a Grade B type pitching prospect.

Anyways, thanks Mag for posting this!



King Ryan - Sunday, September 18 2005 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#128268) #
I was just reading through Dave Till's 2003 report card, and so much of it is depressing to me now. Here's what he said about our number 3 hitter:

Vernon Wells
2003 season in one word: Unstoppable

Continued improving throughout the season. Hit .344/.391/.542 after the all-star break; his slugging percentage after the break was higher than Delgado's. To give you an idea of what kind of player he is now: next year, he could win the home run title, the batting title, a Gold Glove in centre field, or all three. If he continues to grow at the normal rate of player development, he will be the second-best player in the American League at his peak (behind A-Rod). Is now the best player named "Wells" in Jays history.
Monthly grades: B- A+ A+ A A+ A+
Final grade: A+
*sigh*
Dave Till - Sunday, September 18 2005 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#128271) #
*sigh* indeed. :-)

Vernon Wells isn't part of the problem. Sure, he's got flaws as a hitter, with the main one being that he often chases bad pitches. But he's a great fielder, he's the Jays' only real power threat, he runs well, he's got a decent arm, he isn't a problem in the clubhouse (as far as I know), and he's not being paid exorbitant amounts of money. A team full of Vernon Wellses would do rather well.

What the Jays need is to upgrade at least two of their corner outfield/1B/DH slots.
Magpie - Monday, September 19 2005 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#128284) #
And here are the players who have received the most work in the three spot for each of the 30 teams:

TEAM	        Player	
		
St. Louis	Pujols	        95.3%
Colorado	Helton	        87.1%
Chicago Cubs	Lee	        81.9%
Boston	        Ortiz	        74.3%
Philadelphia	Abreu	        69.8%
NY Yankees	Sheffield	90.5%
Texas	        Teixeira	84.6%
Pittsburgh	Bay	        87.2%
Atlanta	        C.Jones	        52.3%
LA Dodgers	Drew	        44.6%
Florida	        Cabrera	        49.7%
Baltimore	Tejada	        60.5%
LA Angels	Guerrero	53.4%
Houston	        Berkman	        41.6%
Cincinnati	Casey	        59.7%
Arizona	        Gonzalez	91.9%
Cleveland	Peralta	        33.1%
Tampa Bay	Cantu	        43.6%
NY Mets	        Beltran	        88.5%
Kansas City	Sweeney	        76.7%
Detroit	        Shelton	        29.3%
San Diego	Giles	        43.5%
Seattle	        Ibanez	        49.3%
Milwaukee	Overbay	        60.1%
Minnesota	Mauer	        65.3%
Washington	Guillen	        48.3%
Toronto	        Wells	        73.5%
Chicago Sox	Everett	        53.1%
Oakland	        Crosby	        40.5%
San Francisco	Snow	        51.4%
Only three guys (Pujols, Sheffield, Gonzalez) have started 90% of their team's games hitting third, and one of them (Sheffield) has just been moved out of the three spot and is now hitting cleanup.
Gitz - Monday, September 19 2005 @ 02:08 AM EDT (#128290) #
Can we finally declare Vernon Wells the right-handed Garret Anderson? And can we further say there's nothing wrong with that, provided there are others in the lineup less averse to walking?
VBF - Monday, September 19 2005 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#128302) #
Yes, and yes.
Caramon's Request | 6 comments | Create New Account
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