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Where do we stand? Apparently, GM Ricciardi has pretty much ruled out the trade rumours involving Bobby Abreu ("too rich for our blood") and Kevin Mench ("they asked for WHAT?").

Well, apparently the Orioles have no intention of bringing back Sammy Sosa or Rafael Palmeiro...

OK, moving right along...

The Orioles are interested in Mike Piazza...

The Mets are talking to Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan...

Manny Ramirez... it's Manny, who the hell knows? Not Manny, that's for sure.

Seattle is asking about Aubrey Huff...

And much, much more.

This Day in Baseball: Mid-November Gossip Edition | 141 comments | Create New Account
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HoJu - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 12:36 PM EST (#131954) #
Anybody heard Farnsworth's name mentioned as a possibility for the Jays?
Petey Baseball - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 12:37 PM EST (#131955) #
I have just a question. How long until the first move is made by the Blue Jays? I wonder if they will wait it out, or move in for the kill early. Sometimes the ones the wait it out are the one's that get the worm. Although sometimes the early bird gets it.
Dr. Zarco - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 01:00 PM EST (#131957) #
Anybody heard Farnsworth's name mentioned as a possibility for the Jays?

PLEASE NO!! I'm begging you. No. I feel like a broken record.

Ryan B. - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 01:31 PM EST (#131959) #
I was reading an article from The Boston hearld today and it said Oakland is once again "danggling" Barry Zito.

I think he would be a great fit for this team. He'd be like having a 1a instead of a 2 behind Halladay and could really do some damage in the AL East where left handed pitching is at premium.

Anyone else think Oakland and Toronto could make good trading partners for Zito?
Jabes - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 01:36 PM EST (#131960) #
I'd love to have Zito and have a potential rotation with three LH's in it. Not sure what the Jays could give Oakland though, their infield is solid, and the Jays don't have much in the way of OF's to give Oakland. Beane isn't going to make a deal just because JP is his buddy.
Brian B. - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 02:29 PM EST (#131962) #
I believe I read somewhere that Billy Beane was lookin for a young starter to trade for Barry Zito.

Dustin MacGowan might fit the bill and might even be in J.P.'s plan B.
Gardiner West - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 02:49 PM EST (#131966) #
Who is Tony LaCava?
And why does Peter Gammons think that he's one of the next great young GM's?
What exactly does he do for the Jays?
Anyone have a good recipe for Cerrano peppers?

So many questions, so few answers...
Ron - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:11 PM EST (#131967) #
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/13137314.htm

The Jays turned down Abreu for Wells.

Good deal in terms of talent but the difference in salary is too much. You could make a picth for Giles with the difference in salary. And of course the Jays don't have anybody else to play CF on the major and minor league roster. THe FA market is thing.
Ron - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#131969) #
I meant the FA market is thin.
Wildrose - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:26 PM EST (#131970) #
In yesterdays print edition of the Globe, ( no link as it's on the suscriber only portion of the net), Blair descibes the latest on Burnett and the Jay's.

The Jays still hope Burnett's agent gives them the last shot at signing the pitcher. Ricciardi is not scared away by a term of 5 years, and he hopes Burnett is paying attention to the woes of Matt Clements who they feel was "eaten up" by the constant scrutiny in Boston.

This story is not over by a long shot.
Jabes - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:29 PM EST (#131971) #
Five year deals for unproven pitchers scare me.
Jabes - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 03:51 PM EST (#131972) #
Anybody remember Joey Hamilton?
CeeBee - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 04:39 PM EST (#131974) #
"Anybody remember Joey Hamilton?"
Unfortunately, yes.
The pichers graveyard is littered with blown out arms. Some come back like John Smoltz, but most never do like Gary Nolan and a host of others. Of all the risks in baseball, none, in my opinion is greater than a long term pitchers contract.
Named For Hank - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 04:52 PM EST (#131976) #
I wonder if they will wait it out, or move in for the kill early. Sometimes the ones the wait it out are the one's that get the worm. Although sometimes the early bird gets it.

J.P. had said at the start of the off-season that he wanted to move quickly because last year they waited on Clement and lost out as the rest of the teams moved quickly and nothing was left. More recently he has said that the market looks like it's going to move really slowly this year, so despite his desire to move quickly he still may not be able to.

I like that he's semi-imposed a deadline on the Burnett deal (saying something along the lines of if the deal isn't done by December the Jays will begin to pursue plan B) -- he's trying to make the market do what he wants, force the issue and get things rolling. I guess the team really felt burned by what happened with Clement last year.
Pistol - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 05:21 PM EST (#131978) #
Five year deals for unproven pitchers scare me.

Five years for just about any pitcher is scary.

However, I don't see how he's not 'proven'. He has a 3.73 ERA in 854 innings, including 300+ innings since surgery. I think you know exactly what you're getting with Burnett. You may or may not think he's worth whatever contract he's going to get, but he's certainly not unproven.

Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 05:32 PM EST (#131979) #
I would say 5 years for any pitcher is a little scary, especially one with as much injury problems as AJ. But its tough to find a pitcher who hasnt had injury problems. If the Jays have to take a chance anywhere Aj isnt a bad place to start. Gotta remember he did have a pretty solid year coming off elbow surgery, the year after TJ surgery is often a write off.

I dont understand trading wells for abreu, wells is a gold glover, isnt quite the offensive player abreu is but his best years are ahead of him, he's only 26. He seems like he wants to stay in Toronto and he's cheaper. If we were gonna be picking up abreu I would hope it would be for prospects. Gillick is a great GM, it seems like he allways makes sure he has a great defensive CF. White, Brady in Bal, Cameron in Seattle. I think its a good blueprint.
Dylan - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 05:35 PM EST (#131980) #
I think AJ had elbow surgery last year?
HollywoodHartman - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 05:43 PM EST (#131981) #
TB D-Rays news:

They have hired Angels bench coach Joe Madden to be their new manager. It will be announced in a press conference on Tuesday. It is rumored to be a 3 year deal. Madden's main competition was current Rays bench coach John McLaren

Souce: Espn.com
Dave Till - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 06:26 PM EST (#131982) #
Five years for A.J. is scary. But, at some point, the Jays are going to have to do something scary if they actually want to try to win. The zero-risk strategy is to keep your money in your pocket and finish third again.

Not sure whether another pitcher is the best solution, though: the Jays need bats. But I'd be happier to see the Jays take a flyer on somebody than to sit and do nothing. I want the team I root for to go down trying, goshdarnit!

I'm fascinated by the idea of the Jays being scared off by long-term contracts at this point, as J.P. himself is only committed to the team for two more years. Some GM's would be willing to happily load a team up with long-term commitments, knowing that he was free to jump ship before their negative effects really began to sink in.
Named For Hank - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 06:41 PM EST (#131983) #
But, at some point, the Jays are going to have to do something scary if they actually want to try to win.

That's what I was trying to say at the tail end of the last catchall thread -- that there's a time to mortgage the future, and that time is either close to upon us or upon us right now.
Ron - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 07:35 PM EST (#131984) #
The time is now for the Jays to take the next step and become serious playoff contenders.

Even if the Jays have to overpay for AJ, I would much rather see the Jays spend to get him than for them to just pocket the money.

CaramonLS - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 08:35 PM EST (#131987) #
Wells for Abreu... I don't know how JP can turn this down. You lose a lot in defense, but you gain a ton of Offense.

This guy piles up stats and does everything you want at the plate.

We have money to burn, and we aren't getting a ton of free agents. But I mean to pass up arguably one of the top hitters in the game?

Even if it is a ~8 million Salary difference... it is worth it, and I mean if Rios is in the plans for the future, you could move him to CF.

Just my opinion anyways... this move would make the team better and we'd still have some cash.

CeeBee - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 08:59 PM EST (#131991) #
What if?
Is an outfield of Abreau, Rios and Johnson/Cat better than an outfield of Cat/Johnson, Wells and for sake of who might be available Mench or Kearns?
There are just so many variables... Maybe John Ford Griffin will force the issue in spring training, maybe Gabe Gross will. Might be Alex Rios will take the next step and make big improvements. For a lot of players the 3rd year is the deciding one as to which way they will go. Griffey, Dunn, Giles are some more names that might enter into the equation. Anyway, it's fun to speculate and thats all it is, something fun to talk about to help keep the fire burning through a long cold winter :)
R Billie - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 09:10 PM EST (#131992) #
I think the question with trading Wells for Abreu is why do that if you can spend less per year to just sign Giles? Then you still have Wells and you add a star hitter to your team. Once you take park factors into account, Abreu and Giles are almost the same players except for stolen bases and about 4 years of age in Abreu's favour.

As far as the age of Brian Giles and the potential of AJ Burnett, PECOTA seems to like them. (NY Times article; reg required).

A relative sleeper could be found in outfielder Brian Giles, who despite being 35 has the kind of skills - excellent power, speed and a fine batting eye - that tend to age relatively slowly.

...

Pecota helps quantify the danger of long-term pitching investments, and points out which types of arms tend to project best. The strongest indicators of future performance are rates of strikeouts, walks and home runs, but also ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and even body type.

As for this year's free-agent pitching market, Silver sees a fine future for A. J. Burnett, an enigmatic 28-year-old right-hander. Burnett projects to have a 3.65 earned run average next season, but also has a 15 percent chance of blossoming into a Cy Young award candidate for several seasons. Of the two most intriguing relievers available, the veteran Billy Wagner and the less-known B. J. Ryan, Pecota chooses Ryan as the better long-term investment thanks to his age next season (30 to Wagner's 34) and several other peripheral factors.

These guys might be expensive and are certainly not without risk. But they're also likely to be good for the next two or three years. After which either their contracts might expire or you have the option of trading.

slitheringslider - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 09:29 PM EST (#131993) #
Wells for Abreu... I don't know how JP can turn this down.

I have to say this would be tempting, but a there are a few reasons why we should not trade Wells for Abreu.

1) Salary Differences - is another x million onto the payroll really worth a marginal increase in offence

2) Age Differences - Wells should be hitting his peak over the next few seasons, while Abreu, at 31 should slowly begin to decline

3) Is Abreu really that much better than Wells?
Abreu does that following things better than Wells: .OBP, SB

Other than that, the rest are debateable. Compare the 2005 season, Wells went .269/28/97, and Abreu went .286/24/102

However, comparing their career years
Wells (2003) went .317/33/117 and Abreu (this one is debateable, depending if you're a sabermatrician or an old school baller, I chose 2001) went .289/31/110.

.OBP aside, comparing Wells to Abreu, year in and year out, I feel like they would produce a similar line. However, I feel that Wells has a higher ceiling than Abreu (didn't JP say that he thinks Wells is going to win a MVP some day?). Wells 2003 line is better than any of Abreu's seasons, and I feel like going forward, Wells would produce at a level that is going to equal, if not better than that of Abreu. Also, we always complain about the lack of power in our lineup, swapping these players definitely wouldn't help as Wells has more power than Abreu. Also, Abreu strikes out more than Wells (don't know if that actually makes that much of a difference).

Defensively speaking, there aren't that many CFs that are better than Wells in the business.

My only justification of trading Wells for Abreu would be a sabermetric one. Abreu has consistently outperformed wells in .OBP by about 80pts. Is that justification enough? that's for JP to answer.

My conclusion is that we shouldn't trade Wells for Abreu, although I feel like you couldn't really go wrong with either. I hope 2003 was not his Career Year, but only a glimpse of the brilliance he will display in his career.
Pistol - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 09:33 PM EST (#131994) #
WARP3 has Vernon Wells at 7.2 wins and Abreu at 7.0 wins this year.

Trading Wells would only fill one hole while creating another (not even considering age or salary) which is why the conversation between the teams was apparently quick.
R Billie - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 09:40 PM EST (#131995) #
Yeah exactly. Fine, Abreu gives you more offence. But then where do you find another centerfielder like Wells? Answer: you can't. Unless you believe Rios is going to take a huge step forward.

Trading Wells is a non-starter. Unless you plan on joining the Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, and other teams who are chasing after Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, Johnny Damon, etc who are older and more expensive and in many cases not as good as Wells, either in production or ceiling.

Not only should they keep Wells but as long as he has a decent year, they should think SERIOUSLY about extending him a few years beyond 2007.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 10:06 PM EST (#131996) #
Extending Wells is a whole other issue. His contract is up in 2007, and he turns 27 next month. I have no idea how valuable a player he will be in his early 30s. The best thing is to see how he does in 2006 and then consider the issue.
CaramonLS - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 10:50 PM EST (#131997) #
And do people like Abreu grow on trees?

Also what is up with people marginalizing OBP all the sudden?

.405 OBP last season (Career .411), vs. Wells with his .320 OBP (which can't seem to top his sophomore high).

Abreu is 20% better at getting on base than VW is, IMO that is just something that cannot be thrown out the window so quickly.

Wells has good defense out in CF, but I'm just not a fan of his lack of plate discipline. We need a premiere hitter in that #3-4 Spot, Vernon can't fill that role.

IF we keep going with Rios, would he at least be an average CF? I know he has had some tough reads on balls during his time there, but I've heard "Natural CF" a lot.

Alone would this help us? Yes. But if you get another addition (Say Giles) you've spent most of the money JP has available for the next few years. You take a huge leap forward in offense, and a moderate hit in the OF defense.

Just my opinion, but I see it as 1 step back, 2 steps forward.


SK in NJ - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 11:16 PM EST (#131998) #
Instead of trading Wells for Abreu, wouldn't keeping Wells and trying to sign Brian Giles be more prudent?

2006
Abreu: $13 million
Wells/Giles: $4.3M + $11M = $15.3 million

2007
Abreu: $15 million
Wells/Giles: $5.6M + $11M = $16.6 million

Whether or not Giles at $10-11 million annually is an overpayment is not the issue here. If you can keep Wells and get a comparable outfielder to Abreu for essentially the same price as it would cost for Abreu alone, then it adds talent and doesn't create a hole in the process. A much better way to go.

Of course, I don't see Giles signing with the Jays, but just as an example.
Magpie - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 11:37 PM EST (#131999) #
Instead of trading Wells for Abreu, wouldn't keeping Wells and trying to sign Brian Giles be more prudent?

Yes. Yes! YES!!

Giles was actually even or slightly better as a hitter than Abreu last season, despite the massive difference between the San Diego and Philly ball parks. Here's what they did in neutral parks last year:

PLAYER	      TEAM  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
Brian Giles	SD 279 57 93 26  3  9  52  8  3 70 .333 .463 .545 1.008
Bobby Abreu    Phi 302 49 81 16  1  9  44 19  4 57 .268 .387 .417  .805
Giles will cost less than $28 million over the next two years. Giles will cost a draft pick, rather than a Gold Glove centre fielder who also happens to be your one power hitter.

Abreu is a wonderful player, but Giles is better, will almost certainly be cheaper, and won't cost as much to obtain. Signing him would surely be the preferred option.

CaramonLS - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 11:39 PM EST (#132000) #
I agree completely, it would be a lot more prudent than to trade Wells. Sign Giles, and keep Wells.

However, I think Abreu alone is an upgrade on Vernon, and fills more holes than it creates.

Not to mention, the money shouldn't be too much of an issue. Damn, we could have 40+ million to spend, but what good is it with no one coming to TO?

Magpie - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 11:45 PM EST (#132001) #
If Abreu was replacing Rios rather than Wells... that would be fun. I'd like that a lot.

Who wants J.P.'s millions? Anyone? Manny?

CaramonLS - Sunday, November 13 2005 @ 11:56 PM EST (#132002) #
You have to give to get.

Unless you want Jim Thome of course.
Twilight - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:44 AM EST (#132003) #
I agree you have to give to get, but I would definitely prefer to keep Wells. For one, he's a leader in the clubhouse and people respect him. Secondly, for a gold glove CF, he's cheap. And, he knows where he fits in. Near the end of the season, he said he was surprised he was still batting #3 in the lineup since he had been struggling as of late.

I think Wells is a great #3 hitter in the lineup. The problem is the Jays have no solid #4. When you've got a guy like Carlos Delgado hitting #4, Wells poses a rather significant problem for the opposing team. Do you pitch to Sometimes Power Guy and hope you get him out, or do you pitch around him and let him get on base for Always Power Guy? Sure Wells takes some swings at pitches he shouldn't, but as a pitcher, do you want to take the risk of putting him on and bringing an even more lethal hitter to the plate? But when you've got Koskie coming up next, why bother giving Wells anything to hit? Throw em all over the place and hope he strikes out. Hillenbrand is a better hitter than Koskie, and hits for average with moderate power, but still not a true clean-up threat. Which is what the Jays need in their current lineup.

Now regarding Burnett: I do think they know what they can expect from this guy. Whether the Jays need pitchers or not right now shouldn't be an issue, simply because you can never have too many. If Chacin or Towers doesn't repeat the year they just had, you have a problem. If Lilly gets hurt again (or is not effective), or if something yet again happens to the Doc, you have a problem. Having AJ in your rotation is a good safeguard against such a disaster. And if it so happens that the Jays end up with an abundance of effective starting pitching, not a problem! Look for another team that is having a pitching meltdown and offer them a trade. As you're just chillin' with some great pitchers, you've got the upper hand in a trade, and you can make another team pay out the nose for one of your guys--maybe even pick up a solid bat in the process, as a team with good hitting but a pitching disaster will need all the help they can get.

Just my opinion. I still think JP is better than me at this. LOL
danjulien - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 11:38 AM EST (#132015) #
I love doing a lit review for my thesis...
This is from 1994 economists...
<i>MP is marginal product in this study, which is how much more someone helps win games to his team. According to these economists, players barely affect win percentage, the best player at the time of the study was Robin Yount, and if he had signed with a .500 team he would have only added .56 wins to their win total...</i>
Thank god Sabrmetricians came alone and changed this thinking...
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:14 PM EST (#132018) #
Here's our parlour question of the day. Who will be better in 2006, Hee Seop Choi or Eric Hinske? If you think it's Choi, what would be a reasonable expectation for him in the Rogers Centre with 550 PAs?
Mike D - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:34 PM EST (#132019) #
Mike G, I don't think Choi would outperform Hinske. First of all, 550 PAs is an extremely dodgy proposition for Choi, given his injury history and his severe inability to hit lefties. Last year's 6-for-29 (.207) with three walks was his high-water mark by far in his career against southpaws; he must have been hit by a few pitches to post a .207/.343/.379 line with only three walks.

Second, even if he's healthy and manages to hit a respectable .250/.350/.450 against lefties -- again, questionable -- he's a streak hitter. His performance is likely to be highly lumpy, which isn't necessarily a good thing for a Jays lineup that needs consistent punch more than it needs a see-a-lot-of-pitches kind of guy. He rattled off both an 0-for-25 stretch and an 0-for-20 last season, despite being generally sheltered from lefties. Choi's best off serving a Bellhorn-type role in a deep lineup. No to Hee Seop.

On the other hand, to all Toronto-area Bauxites, if you see a 6'6", 250-lb lefty closer walking around town today, be really nice to him.

But not too nice. Don't come on too strong. Just be yourself, Toronto. And take him someplace classy, ya hear?
Pistol - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:36 PM EST (#132020) #
Hinske: .260/.335/.430 (aka, his career line)
Choi: .260/.360/.460 (basically his two year average with a slight uptick for changing parks)
Mike D - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:50 PM EST (#132021) #
I'd only agree with Pistol's numbers if Choi stays healthy and sits against lefties. He's a lefthanded Josh Phelps with slightly -- and only slightly -- better bat speed.
Cristian - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:51 PM EST (#132022) #
Am I the only one scared away by this picture of Bobby Abreu? Probably

http://i.somethingawful.com/inserts/articlepics/photoshop/11-11-05-cheating/saig.jpg
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 12:59 PM EST (#132023) #
Choi is probably available at a reasonable price. Checking BaseballReference.com I see he hitting his age 27 season next year and has had about a season and a half of AB's. Checking ESPN his splits for 2002-2004 had him hitting 253/357/461 vs righties over 783 AB's and just 159/317/280 vs LH over 82 AB's. In '05 he was 258/335/460 vs RH (291 AB) and 207/343/379 vs LH (over just 29 AB's).

If the Jays lose Cat or Hinske over the winter then Choi would mix in nicely, but unless he is about to jump from mediocre to superior he is nothing to get excited about. Oddly enough he had a 878 OPS at home last year vs 705 on the road despite home being Dodger Stadium (traditionally a pitchers park) and playing in the NL west (lots of games in Colorado - he had just a 439 OPS there - weird).

I'd take him over Hinske (Hinske is one year older) but neither is a player to jump up and down over at this stage. Two guys who looked to be more than they turned out to be. Both could develop but being in their late 20's it is now or never.
Mike D - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:00 PM EST (#132024) #
One last Choi factoid:

May 11-June 7 (25 games played): 0 HR
June 10-June 14 (4 games played): 7 HR
June 15-Sep 20 (69 games played): 1 HR
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:07 PM EST (#132025) #
Choi has hit 30 homers in his last 600 ABs. That's nice. Too bad it wasn't in one season. Anyways, I see him as a .265/.350/.470 hitter in the Rogers Center with 550 PAs.

Both Choi and Hinske played their minor league ball in the Cub system and Choi was quite clearly the better hitter. He's a year younger, but not as mobile. It's true that he hasn't hit lefties in his career, and that he got off to a cold start to his pro career, but I'd take his age 27 year if I could make the space.
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:10 PM EST (#132026) #
So, whats the over/under date for the first free agent signing by anyone? What about for over $10 million per year? And who to whom?

I doubt any starters will sign until Burnett sets the market. Will BJ Ryan be first among closers or will Wagner sign first?

My bet is on Wagner being first to sign or being very late to sign. Either he'll get very greedy or he'll take a quick offer and end it before BJ and the rest get going.

Tom Gordon is a favorite of mine, but he'll wait until the guys currently viewed as 'proven closers' sign then go to whoever loses out. Damon might surprise everyone and sign quick with the Red Sox or go to the Cubs (just a feeling that they'll be looking for 'magic' out of him).

The Jays? My bet is the Jays signing Gordon after losing out on the top closers on the market, or sending Gordon a high bid ($3-5 mil a year for 2 years) to lock him up and force bidding high for the name closers (suck cash out of the competition). If Frank Thomas is willing to come here I wouldn't be shocked to see him come for $4 million plus big playing time incentives, leaving Rios & Gross to share RF. No new starters via free agency, but a trade bringing in someone no one has thought of yet.
Mike D - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:12 PM EST (#132027) #
I think Choi is the kind of guy who could be a Triple-A MVP with his patience and his ability to crush mistakes. He just can't hit plus breaking pitches, moving fastballs or hard fastballs.

I think he simply has the wrong offensive profile to help the Jays' offence. A guy who sandwiches Player-Of-The-Week weeks between long, long droughts isn't good for a team that gets on base but lacks the power to consistently cash them in.
Anders - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:28 PM EST (#132028) #
I hope something happens soon, Im starting to get bored.

So, a fun bit of trivia (from Jayson Stark)

Other than Rocket Roger (who's done it ten times), which six active pitchers have at least 3 top three finishes in Cy Young voting? No cheating. (I was able to think of 5/6 in about a minute)
VBF - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 01:40 PM EST (#132029) #
Martinez, Schilling, Johnson, Maddux, Rivera, and what the heck, Smoltz.
Jdog - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 02:02 PM EST (#132030) #
Switch Smoltz with Glavine
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 02:04 PM EST (#132031) #
Another fun thing that just ended, HACKING MASS 2005.

Did anyone else participate in it? I came in 899th out of 1859 using mainly ex-Jays. Did lots of risks based on last year too. Had 5 guys who were negative ESPN in 2004 and only one who was 10+ in 2004 (Tony Womack at second, just couldn't resist him). Loaiza killed me with his -15 score. Izturis was my All-Star (along with Womack) with a score of 84 (dang injury).

Btw, the higher the score in Hacking Mass the worse it is. It basically takes (.800-OPS) and multiplies by plate appearances. For pitchers it is (ERA-4) times IP divided by 3.

Jays scores?
C: Zaun 36 (169th overall)
1B: Hinske 20 (327th overall)
Hillenbrand 5 (509th overall)
2B: Hudson 36 (169th overall)
3B: Koskie 26 (265th overall tied with Gonzo)
SS: Russ Adams 50 (95th overall)
LF: Johnson 25 (275th overall)
Cat -8 (643rd overall)
CF: Wells 12 (405 overall)
RF: Rios 50 (95th overall, 3rd highest in RF)

Who'd have thought Rios would hit better than Sammy Sosa and we'd all want to replace him? :P

Of note: Shannon Stewart hit 274/323/388 this year and ranked 3rd for LF for stiffness with 551 AB's. Hmm... anyone still miss him?

Among pitchers ex-Jay Hendrickson was 3rd highest thanks to a 5.90 ERA over 178 IP. Ouch. Other ex-Jays I saw before hitting a current one (outside of Lilly & Gaudin) - Leiter, Williams, Adams, Clement (OK, not an ex-Jay but almost a Jay), Lidle, Quantrill.
Lilly - 65 (47th overall)
Gaudin - 40 (140th overall)
League - 30 (227th overall)
Bush - 22 (305th overall)
Miller - 9 (453rd overall)
Batista - 2 (542nd overall)

Wow. Didn't notice until now that the Jays had 9 pitchers with ERA's below 4. Only 1 did it in under 60 IP (Marcum with a 0 ERA over 8 IP). 4 guys had ERA's above 4 and 50+ IP. 3 others with 10+ IP.

Guess the Jays did a good job of getting the crappy pitchers out of the line of fire quickly this year. By contract they had 6 guys below 4 last year, 2 with over 50 IP, none over 100. 3 guys were 6+ over 50+ IP vs 0 this year (McGowan the closest at 45 IP, Lilly at 5.56 ERA).
Rich - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 02:10 PM EST (#132032) #
$4 million guaranteed for Thomas? That's insane. I'd be interested in him as a DH, but he'll be 38 in May and over the past 5 seasons his Games Played look like this:

2001: 20
2002: 148
2003: 153
2004: 74
2005: 34

Prior to this season he still hit well when playing, but I'd be wary of guranteeing him even $2 million at this stage of his career. It's not that he can't hit anymore, though he was woeful this year, but it would be nuts to commit that kind of money to an old, injury-prone player (and malcontent to boot).
Pistol - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 02:21 PM EST (#132034) #
"HACKING MASS 2005. Did anyone else participate in it?"

I did, finishing middle of the pack at 822.

I was much better in the Predictatron finishing tied for 49th out of 1092.
HollywoodHartman - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 02:24 PM EST (#132035) #
A-Rod won the AL MVP. No real surprise here, he deserved it.
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#132037) #
Oh, I know my estimate for Thomas and Gordon are high but I figure the Jays will hit a point this offseason where JP feels the need to do _something_ that only hits the budget for one or two years and could have a big payoff. IMO Thomas is worth about $1 million plus big incentives that could push it to $10 million if he is healthy.

C'mon, someone sign already!!!
Craig B - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 03:37 PM EST (#132039) #
The Devil Rays signed Joe Maddon to be their new manager, an excellent hire - very smart - which shows that this division ain't getting any easier.
Pistol - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 03:58 PM EST (#132041) #

Typically I'm one to scoff at the suggestion of an incentive based contract, but Frank Thomas would be one case where it could come into play (old player coming off of an injury) and the Jays could get pretty creative with it given that they have the money to play with and a hole in the lineup.

If Thomas plays I'm pretty confident he'll hit. His OPS+ the last 4 seasons are 117, 149, 151 and 131 (and that 131 was with a .219 BA).

What I might do is something like this:

* Tell Thomas if he signs with the Jays he'll be the everyday DH and bat 3rd or 4th (subject to normal days off)

* Give him a guaranteed base salary of $2 million.

* Give him $20,000 for every plate appearance over 200 PAs

So here's what he'd receive if he had the following PAs (he had 662 PAs in 2003, 311 in 2004, and 124 this year):

PA	    Base         $/PA	     Total Compensation
700	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $12,000,000 
600	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $10,000,000 
500	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 8,000,000 
400	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 6,000,000 
300	 $2,000,000 	 $20,000 	 $ 4,000,000 
200	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 
100	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 
0	 $2,000,000 	 $     -   	 $ 2,000,000 

From the Jays standpoint there wouldn't be that much financial risk. If he plays he'll be worth what he gets, and if he doesn't play he won't get paid.

Would anyone object to a .270/.390/.550 line getting $10 million for 600 PAs? I think it'd be well worth it.

The real risk in this scenario would be if he got injured you'd have the same hole that exist in the lineup now. Obviously you could say that about anyone but Thomas carries a bit more risk fiven that he's played about 100 games the past 2 years.

I have no idea what other teams might offer Thomas; perhaps they'd be willing to guarantee a lot more. However, if Thomas had an offer similar to the above one I'm not sure how many teams would be willing to go with a contract that could be worth that much.

Thomas' contract will be one of the more interesting ones this offseason.

Something like this might not be my first option, but it might end up being one of the more realistic option for the Jays this offseason.

dave - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:09 PM EST (#132042) #
FYI: New Blair blog today:

"Signing Ryan would allow the Blue Jays to be creative with Miguel Batista. They can trade him or move him into the starting rotation because his contract is cost-effective. The Blue Jays daliance with A.J. Burnett has made more news and the discussions with outfielder Brian Giles are sexier because he is the biggest name bat on the market - although the New York papers report that Giles's agent, Joe Bick, has had four serious discussions with the Yankees who envision and outfield of Giles, Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield. That's all well and good. In a lot of ways, Ryan is the most intriguing option on the market for the Blue Jays"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/
Rich - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#132043) #
Pistol, I think that's a very creative contract and suits both the Jays and Thomas in their current circumstances.
Newton - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:37 PM EST (#132044) #
I'd love to see the Jays roll the dice on the Big Hurt.

The Big Hurt would love to be promised a prime time role on a MLB team to pursue 500 career HR and pad his HOF credentials (he publically stated he was going for HR's in 2003 in an effort to reach 500, whether that's good or bad is another thing but he's clearly motivated by his place in the game).

Incentive based contracts are great for flexibility and help ensure a return on investment but can lead to budgeting nightmares (witness Jason Allison on the Leafs). In season upgrades (ie. if the Big Hurt's ankle can't support his 280 lb frame) are necessarily more costly than off-season upgrades and JP would have difficulty budgeting this off-seaon with a potential 10 million dollar contingent cost.

I'd pursue other options first and if we don't find a worthwhile way to spend money this year roll the dice with an incentive based deal like this on Thomas, then it truly is a no lose situation.
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:38 PM EST (#132045) #
An outfield of Giles, Matsui and Sheffield? That sounds like the Yankees I know. Actually, I don't think that they would be that stupid. Giles or Matsui, sure. Signing both makes no sense and would be a horrific waste of money. Whatever else comes this off-season, the Yankees need a centerfielder who can catch the ball.



jabonoso - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:48 PM EST (#132046) #
Well they seem to be happy winning 12 to six runs games.
With the ARod MVP there two facts that strike me. The four most voted for MVP were Dominicanos (ARod, Papito, Manny and Vlad),the last 4 MVP's are Dominicanos (ARod twice, Vlad and Tejada. Sum to that that between 96 to 2000 Juan Gone and Ivan got three MVP's and you got 7 latinos in 10 years, in the american league. Then add Bartolo, Pedro.
Dominicana will be very hard to be beaten in world classic next year and latino players are very prominent lately (add Johan to the Cy's)
Edward - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 04:50 PM EST (#132047) #
Yeah, can't see the Yankees going big on Giles. Their outfield defense would be atrocious to go with an already suspect infield defense. I wonder what Giles is looking for - a World Series title, dollars, or a little bit of A and a little bit of B?
Newton - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 05:11 PM EST (#132048) #
The Yanks with Giles and Matsui would probably consider utilizing Sheff at DH. If they were able to acquire a true CF (Bradley, Pierre, Damon) they would be "fielding" their best offensive lineup since the 20's.

Giambi would need to play a lot of 1st base (not sure if this is feasible) and Sheff be willing to DH to make this work.



John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 05:23 PM EST (#132050) #
The Yanks could always put Giles at first, or Sheff. Matsui is probably the best defensively of the potential Yankee outfield though so he'll stay out there. Sheffield is probably the best bet to move to first and Giambi to DH should the Yanks go whole hog.
Ducey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 05:32 PM EST (#132051) #
Rotoworld:

"Rangers signed LHP Kevin Walker and LHP Jesse Carlson to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.
Walker, 29, appeared in nine games for the White Sox last season and allowed seven runs in seven innings. At this point, the 24-year-old Carlson is probably the more interesting of the two. The Blue Jays never gave him a chance even though he had a 2.79 ERA and a 59/12 K/BB ratio in 58 IP between Double- and Triple-A last season. Both relievers will probably open the year in Triple-A Oklahoma's bullpen"
Jim - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 05:46 PM EST (#132052) #
Wasn't A-Rod born in New York and raised in Miami. Doesn't that put him on Team USA?
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 05:48 PM EST (#132053) #
Looking at Baseball Cube I could see why Jesse Carlson wasn't kept. Killer at AA, mediocre at AAA. Also, as a 6 year free agent he probably figured Texas has more opening than Toronto in the pen. He has a very live arm from the looks of it though.
Nick - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 06:01 PM EST (#132054) #
Jim - the residency rules for the World Baseball Tournament (not sure the proper title) are very lenient so more countries can field stronger teams. For instance, it has been reported that Frank Catalanatto and Mike Piazza will be playing for Italy. A-Rod has already announced he will play for DR.
Chuck - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 06:19 PM EST (#132055) #
The real risk in this scenario would be if he got injured you'd have the same hole that exist in the lineup now. Obviously you could say that about anyone but Thomas carries a bit more risk fiven that he's played about 100 games the past 2 years.

Pistol, I think Thomas will end up getting a contract similar to what you proposed (though likely with less granular thresholds). I think the real risk with Thomas is as you've suggested: if he gets hurt and can't play, you've got to resort to a plan B. A team that sees itself as a serious playoff threat may be disinclined to go into next season having to plan for backfilling 500 DH AB's if Thomas gets hurt. As such, I think that Thomas will be more attractive to middle-of-the-road teams that might only make the playoffs should Thomas regain his former glory and provide a full season's worth of high quality numbers.

It may not be the concensus around here, but I think Toronto fits that profile. A lot of things are going to have to break right to get them to 90+ wins. One of those things breaking right might be a low-risk contract to someone with huge upside potential, like Thomas.

Mike D - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 06:31 PM EST (#132056) #
Quick "Choose Your Own Adventure" hypothetical for general discussion:

Let's imagine that J.P. was more convincing in his recent sales pitches than he could've hoped for. When he gets to work tomorrow morning, he's informed that A.J. Burnett is on line 1 ready to sign immediately, and that B.J. Ryan is on line 2 ready to sign immediately. What does J.P. do?

1) Picks up line 2 and apologizes to B.J., saying that the Jays' #1 offseason pitching priority has agreed to sign and that the Jays will be allocating any remaining free agent dollars on hitting. He wishes B.J. luck and tells him there's no offer.

2) Works out deals with both pitchers, but then scrambles to unload some combination of Batista, Koskie, Cat and/or Lilly to free up extra money for hitting.

3) Works out deals with both pitchers and essentially declares the Jays done for the off-season, with the exception of minor moves. The Jays don't take on any significant hitters' contracts.

Is there an option (4)? Obviously, the hypothetical is pretty unrealistic. But what would he do if it came to pass?
HollywoodHartman - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 07:06 PM EST (#132057) #
"The Toronto Blue Jays announced today that they have re-signed four Minor League Free Agents to minor league deals. Outfielder Chad Mottola, infielder Kevin Barker and Danny Solano, as well as pitcher Adrian Burnside have been signed for the 2006 season."

-insidethedome.com

...it's news...
Flex - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 07:12 PM EST (#132058) #
Assuming Ryan signs for less than Mariano Rivera money, JP should have enough left over, after signing both of those, to trade for an impact hitter wtihout having to get rid of contracts. Of course if he did do some dumping, he'd be able to buy a bigger impact. AJ and BJ could probably be had for $20 mil a season. After raises to a few others, that leaves, what, $6 mil left over?

Okay, not so big an impact there. But free up one Batista-sized contract, and he can aim for a big bat.
VBF - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 07:34 PM EST (#132060) #
But part of that six million can go to someone like Frank Thomas. Then you can go and make some non-salary dumping trades if you can.

Flex - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 07:40 PM EST (#132061) #
And by the way, to be silly for a moment: AJ, BJ and JP. How could they NOT all be associated with the Jays?
Jay - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:08 PM EST (#132063) #
Crazy rumour alert from a non-regular...Read at your own risk.

Apparently Jarrod Washburn's team of choice this offseason is the Minnesota twins (as it is only 1.5 hours away from his hometown) but he is unsure that they can come up with the amount of money he is looking for. According to his old college coach (who is a friend of a friend...yada yada) he is apparently looking for 3-4 years in the $10-$11 range per. Wow! Now there is no telling if his old coach is as plugged in as he seems or even if Jarrod could realistically expect that amount of coin but let's assume all is true. What would that kind of payout do the expectations of the AJ's and Giles' of this free-agent season?
greenfrog - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:09 PM EST (#132064) #
Of course, then they'd have to go after Jeromy Burnitz (JB).
Pistol - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:22 PM EST (#132065) #
he's informed that A.J. Burnett is on line 1 ready to sign immediately, and that B.J. Ryan is on line 2 ready to sign immediately. What does J.P. do?

I suspect they already have gone through this scenario. If it's either one player or the other I'm sure the players would know from JP that if the other player accepted that their deal is off the table.

However, I suspect if this scenario played out the Jays would happily sign both and then go from there to improve the offense. There'd be some money left and some that would be able to be freed up.

HippyGilmore - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:23 PM EST (#132066) #
From Rotoworld:

ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Juan Pierre from the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers.
No Corey Patterson? We hope the Cubs wouldn't give up Felix Pie for one year of Pierre. Parting with pitching prospects, say Rich Hill along with Sean Marshall or Renyel Pinto, would be preferable.

Man, after re-signing Neifi, that will be one anemic offense. They'd better hope Derrek Lee can keep up his Superman act for another season.

Rob - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:44 PM EST (#132067) #
And by the way, to be silly for a moment: AJ, BJ and JP. How could they NOT all be associated with the Jays?

It's funny, but I certainly don't want to see the Jays follow the trend and go after C.J. Nitkowski. Or D.J. Carrasco. Now, e.e. cummings, on the other hand...I wouldn't go as high as 3 years/25 million per, but he might be okay with 1/20.

VBF - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 08:58 PM EST (#132068) #
TJ Tucker, JJ Hardy...
Flex - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 09:22 PM EST (#132069) #
So now, they're saying the Yankees are closing in on a deal with Matsui for four years at $50 mil. Does Brian Giles get more than that? If he does, I assume he's out of the Jays' league. But could we get any kind of age-related discount to keep him around, say, $11.5?

I'm thinking, sadly, not.
andrewkw - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 10:51 PM EST (#132070) #
3/36 for Giles wouldn't be that bad. I don't think he is looking for 5 years.
Jordan - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 10:59 PM EST (#132071) #
That Matsui deal would definitely raise the bar. Giles would most certainly ask for at least what Matsui's getting -- 4 years/$56 M seems a likely target now. The Blue Jays actually could afford it, but that would fill up a good chunk of the available payroll -- AJ Burnett would be off the table, and BJ Ryan might be a real squeeze.

Still, I'd do it. Giles is the best FA hitter available, and I'm pretty confident he'd hold up well during the first two years of the deal and perform decently enough in the third year (anything you get from him at 39 would be a bonus). Put it this way: if the Jays could sign either Giles or Burnett, I'd take the bat. JP might not agree.

One hitter by free agency and one hitter by trade would make this a very successful off-season for Toronto in my books. I keep hoping the Jays can deal with the Rays or the Reds for one of their surplus outfielders -- Jonny Gomes would be my primary target. But this looks like it's going to be an extremely competitive marketplace. JP will earn his pay this winter.
Pistol - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 11:36 PM EST (#132074) #
Matsui is a unique player in that his value to the team extends beyond the field. I think it's safe to say that the Yankees wouldn't get TV money from Japan if Matsui wasn't on the team.

And there certainly must be enough eyes watching for the *Jays* to put up Japanese ads when the Yankees or Mariners come to town to squeeze out a few more bucks rather than the normal ads.

Which is to say I don't think Giles can say I'm better than Matsui, I deserve more money. Well, he can, but I don't think it's comparing apples to apples.

Of course I predicted $38.4 million over 3 years for Giles in the FA prediction contest which is in line with the reported Matsui offer. (Which I suppose means I think Matsui is worth a lot more to the Yankees.)
Ron - Monday, November 14 2005 @ 11:46 PM EST (#132075) #
I like Godzilla. It's also amazing what you can found about him in Asia Time Magazine.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/2003/heroes/hideki_matsui.html

Indeed, his only eccentricity, if it can be called that, is his extensive private library of adult videos. His refreshing ability to laugh self-deprecatingly about his porno collection, reporters say, is one reason why fans and even nonfans have taken to him so much. Says former reporter Isao Hirooka: "Hideki just wants to be like ordinary people."

Japan's oft-lurid tabloids have found other things for Matsui to worry about. One series in an evening daily warned that in addition to problems arising from language, food and travel, there were potential dangers from the rising use in the major leagues of steroids, amphetamines and marijuana. Another newspaper article breathlessly noted recent revelations about gays in major-league baseball and stressed the need for Matsui to be vigilant in the Yankee Stadium shower room when he bent over to pick up the soap.
Maldoff - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 08:57 AM EST (#132086) #
Apparently the BJ Ryan day did not go as well as planned:

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1132008612147&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064

But Brian Giles is looking better and better.....
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:31 AM EST (#132091) #
It's hard to get a good feel for that Star article. Baker's making all the assumptions and has no quotes on the Ryan visit other than it was a 'Q and A session' (what else would it be?). That Ryan took the time to come to Toronto is enough for me to see that he's interested (although still likely a long shot to sign).

The only thing I take from the Giles part is that the Jays are interested in him and he's considering the Jays, along with many other teams.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:54 AM EST (#132100) #
The Sun article on the Ryan visit is more neutral. Still, it's interesting that neither reporter quotes Ryan or his agent. Usually players and agents at least pay lip service to the city and organization.

http://torontosun.com/Sports/Baseball/2005/11/15/1307492-sun.html

One thing I wonder about is whether visiting players are turned off by the cold November weather. "So this is Canada?"
VBF - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:58 AM EST (#132101) #
Well, for someone that visits Toronto three times a year during the summer, I'm sure he knows exactly what the climate here is during baseball season.

I would be more cautious with someone like Burnett, who never visited Toronto, period. But even then, I'm sure they know that it's almost December.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 11:01 AM EST (#132102) #
Cold November weather yesterday? It was, what, 13 degrees C, the sun shone. We expect our putative ace reliever to go head to head with Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz in key situations, and he's bugged by 13 degrees C in November? I sure hope not.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 11:31 AM EST (#132105) #
Besides, we also have global warming on our side. ;) Soon we'll be a balmy destination.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 11:48 AM EST (#132106) #
Richard Griffin won't vote for a closer for Cy, but he'll vote for a DH for MVP. That seems kind of odd to me, particularly as he seems to portray Rodriguez as some sort of slap-hitting shortstop.

The Star also has a story about potential moves which off-handedly dismisses the possibilty of B.J. Ryan signing, suggests some possibility of Brian Giles, and says Ricciardi has ruled out Aubrey Huff.

Grasshopper - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:09 PM EST (#132112) #
Thats too bad. I was hoping for Ryan and i dont care for Giles at all. Burnett is who i really want though.
R Billie - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:31 PM EST (#132113) #
I'm wondering why we're not interested in Huff...a guy who had over 20 hr and 90 rbi in an off-year and averaged better than .300/.360/.500 in the three years before that.

I can only guess that Tampa is asking something unreasonable for a guy with a $7 million year remaining before free agency.
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:32 PM EST (#132115) #
"Richard Griffin won't vote for a closer for Cy, but he'll vote for a DH for MVP."

Which is the kind of logic that made me abandon the writer's awards many years ago.

IBAs baby!
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:39 PM EST (#132117) #
'I'm wondering why we're not interested in Huff'

2003 - 311/367/555
2004 - 297/360/493
2005 - 261/321/428

I'd take him over Mench, all other things being equal (which they're not), but he's been slipping the past two years.

For what it's worth, his most comparible player BBref is Vernon Wells and most comparible through age 28 is Joe Carter.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 02:27 PM EST (#132128) #
If BP's defensive metrics are accurate, Huff is a below average defensive rightfielder and an above average first baseman. If you take an average of his 2005-08 performance and adjust it for the Rogers Centre, you've got a significantly better player than Hinske, but there'd be a lot of duplication. Vis a vis Rios, there are other issues, being the particular impact of diminished defence on this club and their relative growth curves (Rios will be 25; Huff 29). I'd be interested in Huff, but to make it work, you'd probably need a third party and a complicated deal.
Ducey - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:01 PM EST (#132132) #
New steriod deal: 50 games for first offence + includes amphetamines. It will be interesting to see if Congress will accept it.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-steroids&prov=ap&type=lgns
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:22 PM EST (#132134) #
Not that there's any way to tell, but I'd bet that a ban on amphetamines will have more of an impact than the ban on steriods.

jabonoso - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:35 PM EST (#132135) #
Finally!!!
An MVP award to young marvel Pujols
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:40 PM EST (#132138) #
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 04:03 PM EST (#132141) #
I'd have voted for Pujols, narrowly over Derrek Lee. The situation was quite similar to the 1993 AL MVP vote with Thomas and Olerud. I am not surprised that the electors took some account of Albert's prolonged greatness.
BallGuy - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:38 PM EST (#132164) #
Jeff Blair was on Primetime Sports on the Fan tonight and sounded less than optimistic about the Jays' chances of signing some big free agents. He thought the Jays' best chance was with Ryan (30%). He doubts Burnett will come to Toronto and doesn't think a free agent bat will come here either.
Blair figures the best chance Riccardi has is working a trade with Hudson and 1 or 2 other players to get a big bat.
He figures Riccardi will give the FA market another week and then start looking for trading partners.
Could be a long winter Jays' fans.
:(
HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:32 PM EST (#132165) #
News Roundup:

Matsui resigned with the Yanks 4y/$52m

NYY picked up Tanyon Sturtze's $1.5m option

The Los Angeles Dodgers hired Ned Colletti as their general manager Tuesday to replace the fired Paul DePodesta.
Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:36 PM EST (#132167) #
"Jeff Blair was on Primetime Sports on the Fan tonight and sounded less than optimistic about the Jays' chances of signing some big free agents. He thought the Jays' best chance was with Ryan (30%)"

Well, just on the number of teams interested in Burnett, Ryan and Giles you wouldn't think the Jays have more than a 25% chance on any of them (although that 25% might be more than any other team).
Jabes - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:53 AM EST (#132169) #
It sounds like Giles wants to remain on the west coast, I'm wondering if Billy Beane grabs him as a great replacement for Dorazo.

Is Lyle Overbay on JP's radar screen? I've heard he would be available in a trade now that he's arbitration eligible. It seems like the Jays and Brewers would match-up well in terms of making a trade. (minus the rath of Gord Ash.)

If the Philles were willing to take Koskie, what about trading for Thome? If you look at it as Koskie's salary coming off the books, you look at it as paying Thome about 7 million a year for the next two years. Is Thome's injury risk any greater than Koskie's? His upside is certainly greater and he can DH with the Jays.

Chuck - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 07:59 AM EST (#132175) #
Here's the link with the voting. Who gave Scott Eyre a vote?

Must be cool when your mom has an MVP vote.

Did you see Podsednik's 12th place finish in the AL? One writer thought he was the 5th best player in the league. Another thought he was 6th. BP had him 8th in VORP... on his own team! Nobody buys into a good bullshit inspirational story like a member of the BBWAA.

See how many votes Peralta got? Nada. You're a top flight defense shortstop who hit 292/366/520 and even your hometown writers don't see fit to throw you a crummy 10th place vote? Shameful. Even Wickman and Sizemore got votes.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 09:49 AM EST (#132180) #
Peralta's defensive statistics were very good, but his defence was not particularly well regarded by his home fan's in Tango's study. The same went for Rowand. It is not only sportswriters who undervalue the defence of young players at key defensive positions, and overrate the veterans, but fans too.

Anyways, if you believe BP's WARP1 is an accurate measure of value, Peralta was tied with Johan Santana as the 2nd most productive player behind A-Rod. You have to make a huge clutch adjustment to have Ortiz as a more valuable player.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 10:07 AM EST (#132181) #
home fans, not home fan's.
Jordan - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:02 AM EST (#132186) #
I made a side wager with some of my ex-Roster colleagues before the season ended that Podsednik would finish in the Top Ten in AL MVP voting. I was wrong ... but not by much.
Pistol - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:11 AM EST (#132187) #
Take it for what it's worth....

http://www.nynewsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spyanks164514987nov16,0,4787748.story?coll=ny-yankees-print

* The Yankees also gave Matsui a no-trade clause, but no performance-based bonuses.

* Orioles lefthander B.J. Ryan, said last night he will not visit the Yankees on this trip. Ryan, visited with Blue Jays officials in Toronto on Monday and spent yesterday in Detroit. The Yankees understand they will have to pay Ryan a closer's salary to pitch in a setup role which Ryan has said he is open to doing. But the Yankees worry that the allure of closing for another contender may be too attractive to pass up.

* The Yankees are thinking about offering Giles, 34, close to $30 million for three years, but they want to investigate whether he seriously will consider coming to New York, a person familiar with the situation said.
Fawaz - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:23 AM EST (#132189) #
I suspect the ban on amphetamines will have only a marginal (if any) impact on how teams go about free agency, but if the policy passes through, I would be a little more cautious about signing everyday players and relievers to expensive contracts. For what it's worth, Steve Phillips was on SportsCentre last night and he suggested that about 70% of position players were using amphetamines and that a player he acquired struggled greatly with mental and physical fatigue once he took himself off them. If the choice is still between Giles and Burnett, this tips the scales towards Burnett for me.
Nick - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:07 PM EST (#132204) #
I was scanning the Newsday article posted by Pistol and almost fell out of my chair when I read that Boras' asking price for Damon is 7 years and $84 million. That has to be a misprint. I can't believe even Scott Boras would ask that.
Chuck - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:26 PM EST (#132207) #
I can't believe even Scott Boras would ask that.

Isn't Boras Chan Ho park's agent as well? I seem to recall that prior to Texas signing Park, way back when, that Boras was floating a "$20M per year" trial balloon. I think Park ended up signing for $65M for 5 years.

No harm in beating your chest and asking for the moon. Obviously no one is going to bite on a 7/84 contract for a 32-year old Damon. If Damon gets a 4-year deal, which I suspect he will, he'll have done well.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:02 PM EST (#132210) #
Obviously, Chuck? I agree that no sane person would offer Johnny Damon a 7 year/$84 million contract at his age, but it wouldn't shock me at all if some owner gives him something close to that. It's a thin line between baseball ownership and insanity...
rtcaino - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:17 PM EST (#132218) #
"It's a thin line between baseball ownership and insanity..."

Good line.
VBF - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:56 PM EST (#132222) #
Renovations!

-outside facade in long-term plans
-last three rows on concourse removed and to be renovated
-new club seats, made more intimate (maybe thats what Maureen the usher was tlaking about)
-renovated luxury boxes

binnister - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:11 PM EST (#132225) #
Totally Unrelated:

Looking at the "Renovation" link got me thinking... is this 'Ian MacDonald' the replacement for Dr. Prison Fence?

If so, shouldn't someone one invite him here? (Or make up a neat nickname for him?)
Chuck - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:22 PM EST (#132228) #
Obviously, Chuck? I agree that no sane person would offer Johnny Damon a 7 year/$84 million contract at his age, but it wouldn't shock me at all if some owner gives him something close to that. It's a thin line between baseball ownership and insanity...

I guess anything is possible but teams seem more focused on cost certainty and short term commitments than ever before. And while Mr. Steinbrenner is apparently looking for a center fielder, surely he must have learned a thing or two from the longterm commitment to their last center fielder, who was even younger than Damon when he signed his long term deal.

If not King George, who then is left to pony up for more than 4 seasons' worth of Johnny Damon?

Rob - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:47 PM EST (#132229) #
is this 'Ian MacDonald' the replacement for Dr. Prison Fence?

Ian Harrison has filled in for Fordin before, so it's not a bad guess.

Dr. Prison Fence was an obvious nickname based on the anagram, and as for Ian Harrison...how about A Rhino's Nair? Something with Rhino in it, at least.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:52 PM EST (#132230) #
Remember the Beltran. I know he was younger and a bettter fielder, but still.
Chuck - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:10 PM EST (#132235) #
I hear you Mike. But Beltran (a) is 3.5 years younger than Damon and (b) signed by a GM given a lot of cash to indiscriminately make something splashy happen (to say nothing of punch drunk over the possibility of Anna riding the team bus).

And, with 20-20 hindsight, do you reckon the Mets would take a mulligan if offered?

I look at the Beltran, Thome, Williams and Bagwell long-term contracts as warning beacons to current day GM's considering similar strategies.

Hell, even the Ramirez and Rodriguez contracts have been treated as millstones, rightly or wrongly, due to their longevity.

I will not categorically assert that there's no way that Damon sees more than a 4-year deal this off-season -- even should VBF conjure up a challenge! -- but the times seem to be a' changin'... don't they?

Or will the sirens cry of the free agent market leave yet more GM's awash on the rocks?
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:18 PM EST (#132236) #
Possible Ian Harrison anagrams:

I ran as Rhino.
Ash ran in Rio.
Oh, rain rains.
Horns in aria.
Nair rash on I.
binnister - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:38 PM EST (#132240) #
MacDonald...
Harrison...

Meh, who can tell these writers a part?

:)
John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:20 PM EST (#132243) #
Will people give out 7 year deals? IMO they should stick to Gillicks old rule of 2 years for pitchers not named Dave Stieb and 3 for hitters. However, given the current status (many with money, few dumping) I expect to see at least one 7 year deal and a few 5 or more year deals. Dumb as they may be, you sometimes have to overpay (in years) to get that one or two years you need to win.

Btw, I am in the camp of taking the 2 WS wins and 8 years of ick over 10 years of 'wait till next year' 500 ball.
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:45 PM EST (#132245) #
Ian Harrison anagrams...

A Raisin Horn
Sonar In Hair
Irina Sharon
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:52 PM EST (#132246) #
I much prefer Ian McDonald...

Clan Diamond
Manic Donald
Nomadic Land
Doc Mainland (my favorite)
A Midland Con
Old Acid Mann
Damn Old Inca
D 'n' D Animal Co.
Nomad Lad, Inc.
Rob - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:53 PM EST (#132247) #
"A Raisin Horn"

I think we have a winner, but we have to continue the doctor theme. Thus, Ian Harrison is Dr. Raisin A. Horn.
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:53 PM EST (#132248) #
AJ Burnett = A Burnt Jet, Juan Brett, June B. Tart
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 05:57 PM EST (#132249) #
The Mets and Padres have swapped Mike Cameron and Xavier Nady. The deal is pending Cameron being medically cleared.

Source: mlb.com
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:05 PM EST (#132251) #
Clearly, JP lost interest in Kevin Mench because his name doesn't anagram well. J.P. Ricciardi, or course, only makes "Ricci Dip Jar". Perhaps that's why Tony LaCava decided to stay... he gets top anagram billing in the front office as VOCAL TANYA.

But Paul Godfrey! Oh, the wonders of Paul Godfrey, who is also known as :

Feudal Porgy,
Floyd Prague,
Yo' Fudgeplay,
Frugal Dopey (ouch),
Podgy Earful,
A Fudgy Prole,
Ugly Deaf Pro,
Plead For Guy,
Go Pedal Fury,
Fog Up Dearly,
Ready Fo' Plug,
Ye Fur Lapdog,
Doug Palfrey,
Dug Foreplay, and of course
Earl Of Pudgy.
VBF - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:11 PM EST (#132252) #
Craig, you just made my month.
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:20 PM EST (#132255) #
Vernon's Biggest Fan = Banging Fresno Vest or Beg Nonfat Servings
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:27 PM EST (#132256) #
BJ Ryan also doesn't anagram well, so I doubt JP will be interested. However, Brian Giles works well...

Belgian Sir
I Garble Sin
Iris Bangle
Sabine Girl
Lesbian Rig
Bail Singer
Leasing Rib
Is Large Bin
Serial "Bing"
Gin, Ribs, Ale
Begin Liars
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:39 PM EST (#132258) #
Than again, BJ Ryan's full name (Robert Victor Ryan) gives you RETRO VICTORY BRAN, BORN IVY RETRACTOR, CONTRARY RIOT VERB and REBORN TAR VICTORY.
Fawaz - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:40 PM EST (#132259) #
Of course, the bidding for Giles could get out of hand if he truly is out to 'RAISE BLING'.
Craig B - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:50 PM EST (#132260) #
Shea Hillenbrand = Dr. "Heels" Hannibal or Hans Hailblender
Eric Hinske = Nick Heiser or Rick Shenie
Orlando Hudson = Donald Honours or Arnold Sunhood
Russ Adams = Dr. Musassa
Aaron Hill = Hal Nailor or Ira Hallon
Gregg Zaun = Reg Zagung (best I could do)
Guillermo Quiroz = Quizrole Gilmour


Nick - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:56 PM EST (#132262) #
Gregg Zaun = Zen Gag Rug
Jordan - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 07:53 PM EST (#132265) #
The Mets and Padres have swapped Mike Cameron and Xavier Nady.

Good to see Cameron going to neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox. Either team could easily carry his hit-and-miss offence and would be improved (vastly so, in New York's case) by his defence. Both teams still have to replace departing centerfielders, and their options are narrowing.

Jabes - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 08:53 PM EST (#132268) #
Nady for Cameron is actually a pretty good deal for the Mets. An infield with Reyes, Wright, and Nady is certainly one of the youngest and most promising in baseball.

Have to wonder what the Mets do with that 7 million now. I guess that frees them up to throw more money at Billy Wagner.
Anders - Thursday, November 17 2005 @ 02:04 AM EST (#132276) #
These aren't good...

I ran as rhino
Rain has Iron
Air Rhino's, NA

Some names

Sir Noah Rain
Sir Ana Rhino
(Dr.) Rohan Raisin
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