As I mentioned in the weekend thread the key for the Jays at this point is to improve the talent that takes the field. Here's the example I gave:
If the Jays have 95 wins worth of value in 27 players it doesn’t do them much good when they can only use 25 players at a time and those 25 are worth 85 wins. When you run into that case you have to consolidate your roster to get more wins on the field. So if you trade 3 players worth 10 wins for 1 player worth 6 you’re still improving because those three players aren’t giving you their full wins if you can’t play them up to their full value. (All of the ‘worth’ numbers in this paragraph are purely hypothetical to illustrate the point.)
After I wrote that I figured that I could try to be a little more specific.
Last year the Jays won 80 games which gave them 240 win shares for their roster. I took the top 25, all of who were likley to be on the roster prior to free agency and then added in BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett (after the 25 man roster the remaining players in 2005 essentially totalled zero win shares). Adding Ryan and Burnett gets the Jays up to 267 win shares.
But you can't play with a 27 man roster, so to get it down to 25 I took off Scott Downs and Pete Walker - the two most likely to be bumped if the Jays made no changes. Once that is done the Jays are at 254 win shares for the 25 man roster. That's an increase of 14 wins shares, or close to 5 wins (3 win shares = 1 win).
Name Pos Bat Pitch Field Total WS Hillenn 1B 12.8 0 2.2 15 Hinske 1B 10.4 0 1.2 12 Adams SS 8.3 0 2.2 11 McDond SS 1.6 0 0.9 3 Hudson 2B 7 0 7.9 15 Hill 3B 6.6 0 2.8 9 Koskie 3B 4 0 2.4 6 Zaun C 8.6 0 5.9 15 Wells OF 14.5 0 6.7 21 Catatt OF 13.9 0 2.6 17 Johnson OF 7.6 0 2.9 11 Rios OF 5.4 0 4 9 Gross OF 1.2 0 0.8 2 Speier RP 0 7.6 0 8 Walker RP 0 7.2 0 7 Frasor RP 0 6.3 0 6 Batista RP 0 6.3 0 6 Schoeni RP 0 5.4 0 5 Chulk RP 0 4.6 0 5 Downs RP 0 5.1 0 5 Hallday S -0.1 16.1 0 16 Chacin S -0.5 14.6 0 14 Towers S -0.4 14.2 0 14 Bush S 0 6.2 0 6 Lilly S -0.1 4 0 4 Ryan RP 0 11.8 0 12 Burnett SP -0.2 14.1 0 12 Number of Players/Win Shares 27 266.6 Less: Downs RP 0 5.1 0 5 Walker RP 0 7.2 0 7 25 Man Win Shares 25 254.3
Then the Jays traded for Lyle Overbay, giving up Bush, Gross and Zach Jackson. Making that swap increases the win shares up to 277. But that's for 26 players. Taking Scott Downs off decreases the win shares to 272 for the top 25.
Name Pos Bat Pitch Field Total WS Overbay 1B 16 0 2.3 18 Adams SS 8.3 0 2.2 11 McDonld SS 1.6 0 0.9 3 Hudson 2B 7 0 7.9 15 Hill 3B 6.6 0 2.8 9 Koskie 3B 4 0 2.4 6 Zaun C 8.6 0 5.9 15 Hillen DH 12.8 0 2.2 15 Hinske DH 10.4 0 1.2 12 Wells OF 14.5 0 6.7 21 Catalnt OF 13.9 0 2.6 17 Johnson OF 7.6 0 2.9 11 Rios OF 5.4 0 4 9 Speier RP 0 7.6 0 8 Walker RP 0 7.2 0 7 Frasor RP 0 6.3 0 6 Ryan RP 0 11.8 0 12 Schoen RP 0 5.4 0 5 Chulk RP 0 4.6 0 5 Downs RP 0 5.1 0 5 Batista RP 0 6.3 0 6 Hallday S -0.1 16.1 0 16 Chacin S -0.5 14.6 0 14 Towers S -0.4 14.2 0 14 Burnett S -0.2 14.1 0 14 Lilly S -0.1 4 0 4 Number of Players/Win Shares 26 276.6 Less Downs RP 0 5.1 0 5 25 Man Win Shares 25 271.5
Summarizing the above charts to make them easier to read:
Total WS 25 WS
After Ryan and Burnett: 266.6 254.3
After Overbay trade: 276.6 271.5
So the Overbay traded added 10 total win shares to the Jays roster. However, because the Jays traded away two players from the roster and only added one (and moved Walker back into the top 25) they increased the win shares for the top 25 players by 17 win shares.
Bush and Gross (and down the road, Jackson) could very well contribute more to the Brewers next year than Overbay does for the Jays. But in Toronto they weren't likely to produce more than they did this year. The Jays gave up a pitcher in Bush who was slated to be a reliever and spot starter next year. He wasn't likely to perform that much better than Downs did this year and potentially McGowan, Rosario, Marcum or Banks could step in as well. There might not have been any spot for Gross next year.
Now, obviously this isn't a perfect analysis. For one, the only catcher in the 25 man roster is Zaun. Also, Overbay, Hinske & Hillenbrand all won't be able to put up win shares as high as they did this year just because there's 3 players for 2 spots. Plus, win shares is based on the past and isn't predictive. And this doesn't take salary into account at all, plus the Jays are likely to make further moves.
The point is that when you have a surplus of depth it doesn't do you a whole lot of good to hold onto it. Even if you're potentially giving up more than you're receiving it can still be a good move. I think that's the case in the Overbay trade.
