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Every Other Day of the Week is Fiiiine ...

That's right, Nomar to the Dodgers, where he will apparently play first base.

Say, another pretty fair Cubbie shortstop moved over to 1B and turned it into a Hall of Fame plaque. Maybe Nomar will, too?

Which brings us to today's Question of the Day ....

... which is simply this:

Nomar Garciaparra, Hall of Famer?

Posted by Mick Doherty on Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:05 AM EST.

Every Other Day of the Week is Fiiiine ... | 128 comments | Create New Account

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Mick Doherty - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:11 AM EST (#136869) #

I think he needs about three .300/30/100 seasons in LA to get consideration, so likely no.

But what I think will REALLY hurt him is the fact that it was only after finally trading him that the Red Sox won their first World Series since Woodrow freaking Wilson was U.S. president.

Twilight - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:40 AM EST (#136870) #

I think Nomah can get in, but he has to avoid getting injured. He's had some great seasons, so if he can put up even a few good ones he'll be good to go. My hopes are definitely with him, sounds like a good guy, but I'm not betting on it.

Pistol - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:55 AM EST (#136873) #

Is Nomar a HOF? No.

Will he be? It's a real long shot unless he stays healthy and starts hitting like he did last millenium. Plus, his counting stats are rather ordinary right now:

191 HRs
1395 Hits
740 RBIs
765 Runs

Mike Green - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:01 PM EST (#136874) #

I'll just have to update last year's Hall Watch piece on him. Nomar was not quite the star that Banks was in his prime. Nomar didn't, and shouldn't have, won back-to-back MVP awards. Heck, he wasn't even close to being the most valuable player on his team (step forward, Pedro).

Nomar will need a resurgence to make it, as he had a fairly short career as a shortstop. Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? I don't think so, at this point.

The argument about whether he should go, absent a resurgence, is not as clear at all. It's really about the value of a shortish but bright career. The high side of the argument is Sandy Koufax. The low side is Dale Murphy.

Anders - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:22 PM EST (#136876) #

He has basically played 6 full seasons and 2 half seasons, and been amazing in 2 of those, and quite good in 4 others. I think the basic criteria is that you need 10 years (except in extreme circumstances) to make the hall, and so in that regard he's not particularly close. I think he would need to go at least another 5 years with only minimal decline to be a decent shot at making it - the switch to first cant help either. I dont think his chances are better than 1/10. He turns 33 in the middle of next year too.

Oh, and the fact that he's playing in what is probably the greatest era of shortstops of all time doesnt help - he's definetly behind Jeter and A-Rod, and probably behind Tejada

MatO - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#136877) #

He'll need a Paul Molitor-like late career resurgence. By the time Molitor was Garciaparra's age he had more hits but fewer HR's and was even more injury prone than Nomar. He then went on to the healthiest part of his career after the age of 32 and put up some amazing numbers. Molitor retained his speed into his late 30's but I doubt Nomar will age as well with all his leg problems.

Mike Green - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:52 PM EST (#136878) #

Paul Molitor is an interesting comparison. Nomar still hits for power, and still strikes out very little. That's a combination that bodes well for the possibility of a resurgence (even if he has lost much of his speed already). He strikes out in about 10% of his at-bats, and that is an exceptional figure for a 31 year old with some pop in the current high-strikeout environment.

It would be possible for him to add power by muscling up, and showing a little more restraint in his swing selection, and sacrificing a bit on the contact. The question for me is whether he will adapt to the changes of aging. The potential is there for a good adaptation, but potential and execution are always two very different things.

CaramonLS - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:55 PM EST (#136879) #

Interview with Jim Rome (On the Jim Rome show) coming up ~ 10 mins from now.

CaramonLS - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:56 PM EST (#136880) #

Sorry, mistype.

I ment interview with JP on the Jim Rome show in ~ 10 mins.

einsof - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 12:58 PM EST (#136881) #

Up to this point in his career he definitely doesn't have near the #s needed just to be considered for the Hall...If he can put up at least 3 or 4 more years of stellar performances then he has a shot---I wouldn't hold my breath..Unfortunately Nomar like many others before him will have his health problems dictate his final results rather then his talent--Nomar will probably join the ranks of Bo Jackson & Albert Belle ( careers ruined by health problems)--At least he can still play--But he's a pale shadow of his former self (so far?)

John Northey - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 01:10 PM EST (#136882) #

Take Nomar's core numbers and double them...
382 HR
2790 Hits
1480 RBI

Now that he will be playing first base (and will be viewed as a first baseman when he retires baring another position shift) would that get him in? Doubtful at this stage. He'd be close though. Voters are pickier every day and if doubling Nomar's numbers would still put him on the bubble as he hits his age 32 season then I'd have to say he has no real chance. If he stayed at short or even third maybe, but at first? Nah.

I think Nomar will be viewed in 10 years much like Carlos Baerga is today. Back in the early 90's Baerga looked like a star at 2B, some actually argued he was better than Alomar at the time, but he fell apart at 27 after 3 All-Star games in 6 seasons.

Ron - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 01:21 PM EST (#136883) #

JP on Rome:

- Targeted 7 FA's, landed 2.
- Wanted Giles and Nomar but signed elsewhere
- Team is still missing one bat
- The days of drawing 4 million fans are over
- Hope to draw 2.5 million fans next season
- AJ is just scratching the surface
- 16-31 in one run games last year, blew 13 saves. Ryan will help in this area. Thought Ryan should have been the O's closer the past 3 seasons
- Threw out the names Doc, AJ, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers as the starting rotation
- Didn't see Theo getting ousted
- Toronto is a wonderful city. One of the best cities to live and play in

Flex - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 01:38 PM EST (#136884) #

Thanks for the report, Ron.

Mylegacy - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 01:50 PM EST (#136885) #

I got(s) a question? Where does one hear Mr. Rome?

Many thanks.

Mylegacy - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 02:03 PM EST (#136886) #

On Nomar.

As said earlier he has to pull a Molitor to have a chance, IM(H)O.

Bush had 24 starts won 5
Downs had 13 starts won 4, 37 starts 9 wins. Give AJ 33 of those starts will he win more than 9?

Halladay had 19 starts won 12 give him 33 starts (up 14) will his wins go up?

16-31 in one 47 run games; split that 50/50 we get 23 wins up 7.

AJ gives us 6 more wins.
Doc gives us 5 more wins.
We win (other than Doc and AJ) about 4 more one run games.

We're up 15 games. How many games did we miss first place by? Oh yea, 15.

Now if only the offense is worth at least one win more.

Is Boston better? No.
Are the Yanks older? Yes.

There is a chance if Beckett's shoulder falls off (a real posibility) that Boston will be fighting with the O's and TB for 4th. We've a very real shot at this thing. Now, if only Prince's papi, Big Daddy could come out of retirement! Where's Joe Carter when you need him!

VBF - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 02:17 PM EST (#136887) #

2.5 million fans is roughly about 31,000 a game which is quite good and just about league average. I doubt that the days of 4 million fans are over, though it's going to take a few years like 89-93 for that to happen.

The Jays iirc had a 90%+ renewal rate among season ticket holders last year and an overall increase in ticket subscriptions (including flex packs) amounting to about 9,000 customers. There's little reason for that number to decrease or even maintain itself and coupled with 'buzz' and 'hype' surrounding the Jays, that number could go as high as 12-14,000 purely on curious Torontonians. Compare it to 1993 when season ticket holders accounted for 15,000 of all SkyDome seats (though there was a limit at the time).

While I don't think AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan will sell an extra 5,000 tickets of people going to see them alone, their contributions to a contending team could easily attract this many people and quite possibly more. Toronto is really buzzing about the Jays and when the bandwagon makes a stop, everyone hops on board.

If only the Leafs could miss the playoffs...

huckamaniac - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 02:22 PM EST (#136888) #

"I got(s) a question? Where does one hear Mr. Rome?"

Rome can be heard in the Toronto and parts of Southern Ontario on WGR 550 from Buffalo. I think you can listen on the internet through one of his affliates.

MatO - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 02:24 PM EST (#136890) #

IIRC the season ticket base was 27,000 in the early 90's. There was a waiting list. I was on it at the time.

VBF - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 02:31 PM EST (#136891) #

Oh, really. Must've been one of my own mind creations :)

jgadfly - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 03:12 PM EST (#136897) #

NFN-with Quiroz struggling in Venezuela the backup catching position seems to be in need of upgrading...what options does JP have and does he move sooner than later (Can he afford to hope that they can straighten GQ out in spring training ?) Is Piazza available for $5M/season ? Does Wilson factor into the answer? Who else might be available? Has Eric Hinske ever been a catcher? (He looks like a catcher) Talking about turning 3rd basemen into catchers has Pat Borders signed anywhere? With so many questions and JP's past with stocking catchers (actually lack there of) how long can he wait?

subculture - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 03:25 PM EST (#136899) #

JP's done pretty well with catchers I think... getting Myers and Zaun cheaply for the production they provided, plus shipping Kevin Cash for ??? Quiroz has been hurt so it's hard to know what he's capable of... I like his approach at the plate better than KC's, that's for sure...

Hinske as Catcher is not a bad idea... but his hitting needs to improve - isn't there a batting coach somewhere that can fix his mechanics? He's a ex ROY with a decent glove and speed, good attitude from what I see, and has obvious power (when he connects, bye-bye ball)... surely he's salvageable?

einsof - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 03:51 PM EST (#136903) #

I'm not sure it can happen in this incarnation--but Hinske catching would solve alot of problems for the Jays..

CaramonLS - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 03:56 PM EST (#136905) #

Hinske as Catcher would solve a lot of problems.

However, he would be competing with Jason Kendall to see who in the MLB could throw out the least amount of runners. But aside from that, if he could play adaquate defense and not kill the Jays With passed balls and such, it would be very nice.

dwright5 - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 04:08 PM EST (#136906) #

Ouch. Never thought the Jays would miss Kevin Cash. They traded hin for Gaudin, who the Jays just turned into Dustin Majewski, an athletic 24-year-old outfielder, who hit well in the Cal League last year.

Ducey - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 04:31 PM EST (#136908) #

Hinske as catcher is an impossiblity. Catching has a series of skills not learned at a major league level including blocking pitches, blocking the plate, calling the game, throwing out runners. There is a good chance Hinske would have trouble even getting a glove on some of pitches thrown at him.

Somehow I don't think JP is going to pay Hinske $4.5 million to play at AAA for a year to learn the basics of catching. Nor is he likely to expose him to waivers to get him there.

Name 5 guys in the history of baseball that turned out to be even average catchers defensively after learning at the ML level...... Exactly, its not that easy.

MatO - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 04:55 PM EST (#136909) #

I remember when Kelly Gruber was still around that the Jays experimented with Ed Sprague behind the plate. I'm pretty sure he didn't have a lot of experience, but he looked pretty good to me. When Gruber left they moved him back to 3rd. Sprague had a much better arm than Hinske though but both their stats would look much better if they were catchers.

Magpie - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:06 PM EST (#136911) #

Curiously, Ernie Banks is all over the list of Most Comparable Age for Nomar over at Baseball-Reference.com - it's also interesting that the Most Similar Batter is Miguel Tejada, but he scores just 863 - which tells us that Garciaparra has been an unusual player. Not a lot of guys like him.

Obviously Garciaparra has a lot of work left to do - he needs to work on his counting stats especially, lest he go the way of Jim Rice. But remember, everyone - his lifetime batting average is still .320. That's awfully impressive, and when he packs it in I guarantee his lifetime average is still going to be very impressive. In the end, most of these guys will stand or fall on their numbers.

[Hinske] looks like a catcher

And that's after playing the infield for his entire career. I don't even want to think about what he'd look like if he actually was a catcher.

Name 5 guys in the history of baseball that turned out to be even average catchers defensively after learning at the ML level...

Five? I can't even think of one...

Jacko - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:11 PM EST (#136912) #

Another ex-Jay popped up on the transaction wire today.

Ryan Freel signed a 2-year deal with the Reds today. 1.5 MM per season is a pretty good deal for a .370 OBP hitter with speed. He left Toronto after the 2001 season at the age of 25, probably as a six-year minor league free agent. It's too bad the Jays didn't find room for them on their roster as a backup IF/OF (the role he currently occupies on the Reds).

It also made me look at the numbers of some other ex-Jays who have gone on to bigger and better things after being traded or cut loose. Mike Young (.249/.298/.402 as a 24 year old) and Felipe Lopez (.242/.315/.405 as a 24 year old took a little time to develop, and now they are pretty decent players.

Russ Adams and Alexis Rios were 24 last year, and many people see them as being disappointments. However, I'd hate to see them traded away for a short term solution only to see them blossom elsewhere.

Ken MacDonald - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:15 PM EST (#136913) #

I also think that the Jays need to upgrade behind the plate but converting Hinske isn't the answer becouse it would take far to long.I would rather see J.P. take a run at Nationals backstop B.Scheider.He could share time with Zaun so both would be fresh all year and if you wanted you could use one at DH if they both happened to be hot at the same time.Although you would be short a back up in that situation maybe Hinske would be good enough to be an emergency 3rd catcher.

King Ryan - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:18 PM EST (#136915) #

Um...well, there's Moe Berg! He became a catcher after playing three seasons in the infield. He wasn't a starter, but he did make the travelling all-star team (hehe.)

Nolan - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:40 PM EST (#136916) #

I found this quote regarding Roy Oswalt here and, well, found it peculiar.

The Astros, who will hold a press conference today at Minute Maid Park to give National League Championship Series MVP Roy Oswalt a tractor, are still mulling over their pursuit of free agent outfielder Rondell White.

Is it just me or is that an unusual way to say thank-you? Maybe Roy is a farmer...

Maybe JP should splurge and buy our Roy a tractor to keep up with the trend.

6-4-3 - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:47 PM EST (#136917) #

Doesn't Nomar's career just scream "veteran's committee selection", assuming that's still around after he retires? He's been identified as one of the trinity of shortstops (with Jeter and A-Rod), he's played very well for a short period in a major market, and at his peak he was very good.

He might make it in the easy way, according to baseball-reference, his HOF standards is at 43.7 (50 is average), and the monitor has him at 115, where a likely hall-of-famer is 100.

Of course, pouting his way out of Boston, having his team win the series after he was traded, and being hurt for three of the past five seasons really hurts him, but I think he'll get in.

Thaskins - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 05:57 PM EST (#136918) #

Does anyone else have any interest in bringing Hee-Seop Choi to town in a trade or if he is non-tendered by the Dodgers now that they have Nomar? Yes, he would be another lefty in the lineup and yes we've still got Hillenbrand AND Hinske. But, I'd love to see what the guy could do with 400 AB's against RHP. A platoon of him and a lefty masher could be pretty darn good. He could provide the extra pop we need in our lineup. . .

Glevin - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 06:17 PM EST (#136919) #

I don't think Nomra is close to HOF level at this point. His numbers are just not good enough and moving to 1B will mean that he'll have to be a monster offensively. I mean, Nomar will not match the offense of all those 1B guys like Delgado, McGriff, Giambi, Thome, et all at first base. Considering he is 32 and has only played 140 games in the last two years, it makes it seem almost impossible.

Ducey - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 06:50 PM EST (#136920) #

Here is an article from Dayn Perry at BP that likes the moves made by the Jays. He thinks the Jays combo of D and Pitching puts them in the hunt for the AL East. I can't read all of it but there is enough there to give you the gist:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4662

VBF - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 07:10 PM EST (#136921) #

Is it just me or is that an unusual way to say thank-you?

They need a press conference for that? Talk about a slow offseason.

R Billie - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 07:15 PM EST (#136922) #

While I agree with some of what Perry wrote, I would be wary of projecting 50 doubles out of Overbay. I think doubles totals are somewhat luck related. How many flyballs, linedrives, and duck snorts into the gaps and down the lines fall in? How much does a quality opponent's defence in the outfield cost you and conversely how much does poor opposing defence inflate your numbers?

Delgado and Olerud are both examples of only 27 major leagues in history to have 50+ doubles. I believe Don Mattingly is also on that list. But I also believe that none of these three players in particular ever repeated the feat. 50+ might be as meaningful as the 17 triples Tony Fernandez once hit. And interesting stat but probably not a repeatable skill at the end of the day.

Overbay's value which can be counted on will be in getting on base, playing good defence, and providing a modest amount of power. I'm not going to measure his success on whether he repeats 50 doubles, though I do think he will probably get 40+. Rather I'd like to see him raise his average and onbase and hopefully get some improvement in isolated power by moving to a park with a shorter right field.

Jacko - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 07:39 PM EST (#136923) #

Finding a decent lefty masher seems to be easier said than done right now. The market is so tight that it appears Reggie Sanders and Mike Piazza are going to end up being very overpriced. Same goes for Thomas, and he might not even play 50 games. Lecroy is an option, but it's going to be hard to carry both him and Quiroz at the same time.

I hope that JP is talking to the Royals about getting Matt Diaz, who they designated for assignment.

Jonny German - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 07:43 PM EST (#136924) #

Does anyone else have any interest in bringing Hee-Seop Choi to town...?

Not me... last year he hit righties .258 .335 .460 in 291 AB. Hinske was .283 .358 .452 in 389 AB. Granted Choi played in a pitcher's park, but his stats don't inspire me to clutter up the roster more.

Now, trading Hillenbrand and bringing in Jason Phillips or Matt LeCroy to platoon with Hinske and serve as 3rd catcher, I like that idea. LeCroy is a legit lefty masher - career .292 .364 .531 in 518 AB, including an OPS over 1000 in 124 AB last year. Phillips isn't as much of a hitter (.270 .353 .472 in 89 AB last year, .269 .351 .419 in 294 AB career) but he has the added benefit of being a legit catcher (93 games last year) and could therefore take over as #2 if Quiroz can't handle it.

Newton - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 09:01 PM EST (#136927) #

Not to belabour the point (which I attempt to make in every notes from nowhere thread) but the answer to our search for a bat is Erubiel Durazo...

I am also enjoying the Craig Wilson conjecture. I might even prefer the people's mullet to Reggie Sanders (due to his potential to pick up the odd game behind the plate), although I have little idea how well he plays RF.

Michael - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 09:17 PM EST (#136928) #

Mylegacy - ever the optimist. If everyone stays healthy, and the Jays get lucky, then they could finish first in the AL East. But imagine this senario: Halladay season ending injury in spring training, and AJ adjusts to the AL not well putting up a 4.50 ERA, and the Jays don't find another bat, and Hinske continues to not hit, and the Jays score runs and allow runs more in line with their component EQA and EQR. Meanwhile Schilling is back to 100% healthy and effective as is Giambi. Removed from the pressure of being one of the few high paid stars Lowell recovers his swing and Cano continues his development as an excellent 2b. Now how many games behind 1st and 2nd are the Jays?

So while I think the Jays stand a decent chance of being in the high-80s in the win total, predicting Jays in first is a bit wishcasty.

About the JP on Rome and the starting lineup. I'd much rather have Batista in the rotation than Lilly, unless Batista is necessary as part of a trade (say to acquire Dunn - Batista and Hillenbrand for Dunn? I'd say that's a fairish trade [Batista and Hinske would obviously be ideal, but I think that would be a wishcasting trade]. But likely we'd only do it if we could control Dunn in the long term).

6-4-3 - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 09:33 PM EST (#136929) #

Batista and Hillenbrand for Dunn? If we throw in Chulk, can we get Edwin Encarnacion, too?

VBF - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 09:46 PM EST (#136930) #

Mylegacy's point was that if everyone fullfills their projections or maintains their current level, we're a 90 win team. To be honest, it's quite fair. It's not like we're saying "if Hinske can get an OPS of .900..." It's a logical conclusion. It's not rosey coloured glasses anymore.

Now there's a whole slew of what-ifs that apply to every team. The odds are far greater that everyone does their usual thing plus a hopeful increase in Burnett performance and marginal increase in production from some inconsistent bats (Adams, Rios, Wells etc.), than everything going crazily wrong or everything going crazily right.

We don't have to be unreasonable when accounting for a 90 win projection.

Pistol - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 09:56 PM EST (#136931) #

The Braves traded for Matt Diaz:

http://tinyurl.com/9krar

melondough - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 10:46 PM EST (#136932) #

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports that the Dodgers are out of the running for veteran Reggie Sanders. "Dodgers GM Ned Colletti had hoped to add Sanders to play left field, but has found competition from American League teams that view Sanders as a designated hitter and are perhaps willing to give him more than a one-year deal, The Los Angeles Times reports."

They list the Blue Jays and Royals as two of the most possible destinations. I would love to see Reggie in Toronto. How do others feel? A few items to consider before replying:

- The Blue Jays are in desperate need of some veteran leadership, especially a righty which Sanders happens to be. Yes Sanders is 38 but he has young legs and a quick bat as shown through his #'s below.
2005: 21 Hr's and 14SB .340OBP,.546SLG (in only 295 AB)
2004: 22 HR's and 21SB, .315OBP,.482SLG
2003: 31 HR's and 15SB, .345OBP, 567SLG
2002: 23 HR's and 18SB, .324OBP,.455SLG
2001: 33 HR's and 14SB, .337OBP,.549SLG

-Reggie can play either LF or RF and can do so well. Over the past 5 seasons he has made just 16 errors in 1100 Total Chances. That's a .985 fielding % average over the past 5 yr's (.983 in LF last yr). He has added 35 Assists during that 5 yeat period.

Accoridng to his ESPN profile "Sanders can play either corner outfield position with above-average range, though he will occasionally misjudge a ball. He has an above-average arm and will produce his share of assists because of the quickness with which he releases throws."

I think he is more than capable of taking over the OF when called upon. Otherwise DH is another great alternative.

-He is considered a "positive force in the club house"

-He can hit both lefties and righties well (although better average versus righties) and has almost identical power numbers (1 Hr every 16.5 AB v.s. righties and 1 Hr for every 15.5 AB v.s lefties) His numbers over the past three seasons are shown below:

V.S. Righties V.S. Leftites
2005: 186AB/.280/13HR 109AB/.257/8HR
2004: 333AB/.270/19HR 113AB/.230/3HR
2003: 317AB/.278/19HR 136AB/.301/12HR

-Reggie does strike out a bit much but not horribile. Over the past 5 seasons his #'s look like this:

2005 1K every 4.3 AB's
2004 1K every 4.1 AB's
2003 1K every 4.5 AB's
2002 1K every 4.5 AB's
2001 1K every 3.9 AB's

Now c'mon wouldn't he look great in a Blue Jay uniform?
I think if the Jays were to get him it would have to be a two year deal likely in the $4 to $5 million per season range. I think his body is in good enough shape to merit this.

I would be interested in any comments that would give a real good reason for JP not to jetison M.Batista and his $4.8 million salary out of town and then use the savings to sign Sanders rather than any other F.A hitter.

Newton - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:06 PM EST (#136933) #

Melandough: That is great news indeed. Signing Sanders would be a great move as it costs us nothing in terms of prospects and allows us to compete at a higher level in the short term. A 1 year deal would be preferred but he should still be a decent DH/OF option in 2007.

Signing FA's Sanders and Durazo would complete a dream offseason.

I don't see how KC and Sanders are a good fit.

Pistol - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:16 PM EST (#136934) #

KC needs OFs and has money to spend. How's that not a fit?

--
It seems odd that Sanders has virtually no platoon split.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=4737&type=batting&year=2005

melondough - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:22 PM EST (#136935) #

Newton: I really like Durazo too but coming off Tommy John and not being able to play the OF is a bit of a concern - yer still would say he is worth a shot as he has terrific OPB (great BB #'s!)

Pistol: What do you mean by virtually no split #'s?

Pistol - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:33 PM EST (#136937) #

No splits means that he hits RH pitchers and LH pitchers equally well.

2005: Ave/OBP/SLG/OPS
RHP: .280/.348/.554/.902
LHP: .257/.328/.532/.860

2002-2004
RHP: .275/.327/.530/.857
LHP: .265/.345/.531/.876

Normally RH hitters hit lefties better than righties and vice versa. Over the past 4 years Sanders has been virtually identical.

Wildrose - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:38 PM EST (#136938) #

At 38 years old I was somewhat leary, then I looked at his SB numbers, he's 68-17 since age 34 (14-1 last year in half a season). The guy can still run. I think he's a viable option.

Pistol - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:39 PM EST (#136939) #

Why not combine the four years to make it clearer:

Pitcher AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
LH      0.263	0.344	0.531	0.875
RH      0.276	0.333	0.534	0.867

King Ryan - Monday, December 19 2005 @ 11:53 PM EST (#136940) #

Reggie is also very close to becoming the fifth member of the 300/300 club.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 12:03 AM EST (#136941) #

Reggie! Reggie!

But; does that mean the Cat and Johnson push Rios to the bench as Reggie takes LF? Or visa versa?

Or, is it a Hinske from the left and Reggie from the right DH? If so where is Hilly? With Reggie's splits is he the sole DH? Then what about both Hinske and Hilly? Keep at least one for back up?

JP, hope you got some moves planned...

Do pigs fly?

david wang - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 12:11 AM EST (#136942) #

I think Reggie Sanders will spell the end for Hinske/Hillenbrand/Koskie. If Overbay didn't already do so.

It would not be finacially possible I don't think to have them all on the team and we would see one of the corners along bith Batista/Lilly move.

Sanders would be a great fit for the team, he could bat 6th and creat a L-R-L-R for the 3-6 holes if Overbay bats 3rd, which I feel he should.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 12:16 AM EST (#136943) #

Looks like K.C. is out of the Sanders chase!
Wow a 3 yr deal may be too steep though....
From MLB.COM
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051108&content_id=1266287&vkey=news_mlb_nd&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

OF Reggie Sanders, Cardinals
Dec. 19 -- The veteran slugger was once a target of Kansas City, but is apparently out of the Royals' picture. Sanders, 38, is looking for a three-year deal but the Royals won't offer more than two. American League teams like the Twins and Mariners are seeking Sanders as a potential DH, and Toronto's Globe and Mail has reported that the Blue Jays may be pursuing the free agent. On the Senior Circuit, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti would like to see Sanders in blue.

Gerry - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:47 AM EST (#136949) #

Nothing happening on the trade front according to JP, as quoted in the Star.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1135032611538&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908

Jordan - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 09:32 AM EST (#136950) #

Reggie Sanders has been in the major leagues for 15 years, during which time he has played more than 140 games a season exactly never. And over the last six seasons in particular, Sanders has averaged just over 410 AB per year. He's an amazing talent, but it would not be wise to count on him for full-time production. DH'ing half his games would help keep him healthy, but he was born a month after I was, and I can tell you that's not exactly a spry age.

So for that reason alone, a three-year deal would not be advisable. But if I were Jays GM, I'd happily give him a two-year contract with a third year triggered by incentives (plate appearances, etc.) When healthy, Sanders would be a legitimate cleanup option for this ballclub, and his excellent clubhouse presence has been noted elsewhere.

If you signed Sanders, you'd still keep Hillenbrand around, for a number of reasons: filling in for the oft-injured Koskie at third, taking the DH at-bats when Sanders plays the OF, and playing a super-utility bench role all other times. Even with Koskie, Overbay and Sanders in the fold, Hillenbrand could expect to get 400 AB. No room for Hinske, though.

I expect the trade front will re-open as spring training approaches: someone's going to need an arm like Batista's, and Hinske can be cleared out before the 25-man rosters are set. At this point, the Jays are in a surplus position, and it's much better to go to Florida able to sell rather than needing to buy.

Malcolm Little - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 09:41 AM EST (#136951) #

With both Hillenbrand and Rios needing ABs, Sanders is still a nice fit.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:00 AM EST (#136952) #

I am starting to think that getting Sanders is becoming a pipe dream. If JP can't make a deal to clear some room then I do not see how he can add another FA.

Just look at the 25 man roster as it stands now:

OF - Rios, Wells, Cat, Johnson
CI/DH - Koskie, Hillenbrand, Hill, Overbay
MI - Hudson (my favorite Jay!), Adams, MacDonald
C - Zaun, Qiroz

That's 13 hitters which leaves room for 12 pitchers....

SP - Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Towers, Lilly

Now they have a problem because they only have 7 spots left for RP. I count 10 RP on this team.....

RP - Ryan, Batista, Frasor, Schonweiz, Speier, Walker, Chulk, Downs, League, & McGowen.

I guess the obvious choice is to send League (which I am fine with) and Mcgowen (which I think is a mistake as he looks ready to develop now) down to AAA until an injury occurs (Which you know will happen). However, assuming there are no takers to start the season for Batista then he gives Toronto a power bullpen (like Anaheim) but then they are still one over so who goes?

I think Downs is an extremely under-rated and very usefull pitcher (great k numbers too). I am thinking Chulk or Walker?

Malcolm Little - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:03 AM EST (#136953) #

You think Hinske's turfed no matter what?

Hill could go down, too. Hill, Chulk, and McGowan in AAA. I think McGowan in AAA is almost assured.

Malcolm Little - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:20 AM EST (#136954) #

Is Jeff Davanon a decent target for the Blue Jays? Could he be the extra insurance for the OF to go along with Rios for RF?

One RF FA & dumpitty dump Hinske, and I like the team quite a bit.

Turfing Batista & Koskie would be gravy beyond that.

I'm ok with Quiroz as the back up C.

Pistol - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:29 AM EST (#136957) #

"If JP can't make a deal to clear some room then I do not see how he can add another FA."

I think it's the reverse situation. If you can't sign a FA you want then there's no need to clear players on the roster now.

I think the Jays could do a salary dump trade with Batista any time they want. Same thing with Hinske (although some of the salary would likely be picked up). But they're not going to sell at a discount just to get rid of them.

As the free agents dry up and teams still have holes and/or money I think things could pick up again in January.

Jordan - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:36 AM EST (#136959) #

If the Jays signed Sanders and made no other moves, I think the answer would be to send Hill to Syracuse to open the year. This would not be a bad thing: in nearly 200 post-All-Star at-bats last year, Hill posted a .221/.299/.308 line. At least half a season in Triple-A would do him a lot of good. Either Hillenbrand or Hinske will fill the corner infield utility role, so one of them should be dealt before the season begins. In the end, 13 position players looks about right.

On the pitching side, the five starters listed above should be set, and Ryan/Speier/Frasor/Schoeneweis appear to be locks for the pen (again, barring trades). So you need, at most, three other pitchers. League and McGowan should start the year at Triple-A -- League in particular has work yet to do, and McGowan could be a starter in Syracuse. That leaves Walker, Downs, Batista, Chulk, and Shaun Marcum as candidates for the final three spots. Now it's spring training competition time: two of the slots go to the veterans (Walker-Downs-Batista, unless Miguel is dealt) and the third goes to either Chulk or Marcum. (And if Batista is dealt, I'd like to bring in a fifth outfielder to complement Rios, who has basically played himself into a part-time role right now. Devanon is a fine idea).

At the end of the day, then, you have your best 25 players, and you have depth to choose from when the inevitable injuries strike in Dunedin. I'd say the Jays are in pretty good shape at this point.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:44 AM EST (#136961) #

Thanks Malcom Little for reminding me of Hinske - I totally forgot about him. Wow, that leaves only 6 spots for RP's which you know there is no way the Jays will drop down to. So it's a forgone conclusion that probably 2 players from this list will be dumped or traded.

As for Davanon, I like the fact he is a switch hitter and I like his speed and OBP however he has little power (9 HR's in the past 500 AB). I think at this point there is no point in the Jays picking up another OF just for the sake of it. If there are injuries then it would be nice to see Griffin or another youngster given a chance.

Pistol, as for dumping Hinske I can certainly see why they may do it. And as much as it irks me to write this (b/c I really am at the end of my rope with him) I would be nervous as a Jay's fan to give Hinkse away. I don't know why (maybe b/c of his rookie season) but I can see Hinkse gaining some confidence elsewhere and hitting for average and power. If there is anyway we can turn him into an OF!!!

Actually, if Hillenbrand has lost the 18 pounds that he claims to have lost and he actually has changed his swing as he says he has allowing him to proclaim a promise to hit 30 Hr's this yr, then maybe they can turn him into an OF. If not I think it would be very possible to shape Hill into an OF. He is young and very athletic.

I have no problem with them giving Batista away. It saves them alomst $5 million and Batista is a cancer in the club house.

Jordan - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:47 AM EST (#136962) #

It saves them alomst $5 million and Batista is a cancer in the club house.

I have heard or read nothing to support this claim. That's a serious charge to make unless you have linkable evidence to back it up.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:55 AM EST (#136964) #

With repect to Batista off the field, maybe that was a bit harsh. However, I have read numerous times this off season that he is a loner (which is much different than a cancer I guess) and a bit of an odd ball. However, from a couple of the comments I read it says he is very disgruntled with JP for signing another closer and has asked to be moved.

I am not so ignorant to believe that what is written in the paper most of the time is gospel. That being said, with all the moves made I am not certain that I too would feel any different then Batista, so I can believe what I have read this time.

As for sending Hill to the minors, I think this is a very plausible possibility and would make sense in my eyes. I still wonder if they can send him to AAA and groom him into an OF. He is still young and obvioulsy on order to play 3B he must have a great arm (he can also run balls down as we have seen down the 3B line).

VBF - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 11:01 AM EST (#136966) #

I can't remember where I read it, but the Jays are currently about 3 million dollars overbudget. So, if they want to sign anyone they're first going to have to clear the 3 or so million and then make room for the signing. So yes, I'd say two of Koskie/Hillenbrand/Hinske/Batista are probably gone next season if they sign Sanders.

As for Batista, I don't think he interacts well with some players in the clubhouse based on his activity before and during a game (warms up by himself, talks on a cellphone in the camera pit while everyone else warming up, rarely goes into the clubhouse after BP) but he is by far not a cancer to the clubhouse, and has had nothing but an outstanding positive effect on some players, particularily Gustavo Chacin.

Rick - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 11:31 AM EST (#136969) #

I'm pretty sure this whole notion of Batista as a cancer was started by Richard Griffin. I, for one, heard him specifically say on Prime Time Sports that they Jays saw Batista as a "poison" to Chacin. This seems a bit much, especially considering elsewhere I've heard Batista commended for his mentorship of Chacin throughout the season. In the end, I really doubt this is a case of the Blue Jays' version of Socrates corrupting the youth.

timpinder - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 12:26 PM EST (#136974) #

Dumping Hinske and trading Batista I agree with, but why Koskie? He had one bad year. He has a career AVG of about .280, a career OBP of about .360, he can hit homeruns, and he's solid defensively.

I would like to see another bat added, but I don't think the hitting situation is really that horrible. Koskie should hit better, Adams should improve, Rios should improve, Hill should improve, and then there's the addition of Overbay.

Besides, talk is cheap and I don't believe that the Jays are really finished with trades. After all the FA pitchers have signed, some teams are going to look at their rotation and start calling J.P. about Batista. He'll be shipped with a package of either Hudson or Adams and a relief pitcher or Rios for a bat. (And Hinske will be dealt for some pine tar)

That's my prediction.

Leigh - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 01:35 PM EST (#136978) #

Man, that Wilkerson deal keeps getting worse and worse for Bowden and the Nationals. Here, Soriano says that (1) he will not move to the outfield, and (2) he will sign with an American League team after 2006 season

jabonoso - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#136981) #

"the Blue Jays' version of Socrates corrupting the youth."
Just want to add some more about El Artista.
He talks little and thinks a lot. He is a well read and structured Latino very different from your Mondesi-Sosa type of player.
He has a ESPN Deportes column, there and on ocassional chats with his readers he has been very critical of the Blue jays brass. He is particularly concerned about the lack of communication and not having the players well informed about the game plan.
He was not happy as a closer but he is a pro and have no problems taking the role assigned.
I've seen him in a couple of Caribe series with his Dominican team and he is a leader of the quiet type, very well respected and seems to have a knack for being the Maestro of the younger players.
I do not see him back with the Jays, and he could be a very solid starter for another team, especially in the national league...

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#136982) #

In my view, sending Hill down to Syracuse to begin 2006 would be an unmitigated disaster. When Hill was brought up in early 2005 after Koskie's injury and his arbitration clock thus started, I applauded the move as an indication that the team was committed to winning soon and felt that Hill needed the major league exposure to enhance his early development. Hill had a hot start and a cool finish, but overall his performance at the plate and in the field was exactly what I expected it would be. He's the most promising young position player on the club, by far.

If the team sends Hill down to begin 2006, they will have burned a year of service time in 2005 to no end and, to boot, reduced the chances of victory in 2006.

SimonB - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 02:06 PM EST (#136986) #

If nothing is doing, I do like the idea of turning Hinske into an OF. A Hinske/Rios platoon could be passable, as long as Rios gets the bulk of the AB when Eric hits a dry patch. However, I doubt that thought is even on JP's radar right now, and I fully expect some kind of RF to come to town by ST and Hinske to probably find himself on an airplane out of dodge.

On an entirely different tangent - I don't get all these calls to deal Hillenbrand. He was essentially the Jays' best hitter last season and while he will decline, JP has repeatedly stated that he wants a lineup chocked full of average or slightly above hitters. Hilly's versatile, will hit for a good avg will a bit of pop, and I absolutely think Ricciardi sees him as our DH in 2006. If you get a good hitter in return, then I guess it might make sense, but IMHO Hinske is in much more dire need of a change of scenery. I doubt JP will trade Hilly/Koskie unless he is blown away with an offer.

Jacko - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 02:27 PM EST (#136987) #

That's a fairly creative solution. Hinske's stolen base totals over the years have been surprisingly high for a guy of his size, so it's possible he has the speed to not be a complete butcher out in RF. And he does have the added bonus of being a nice platoon complement to Rios. It unblocks the logjam at 1B/3B/DH, and allows Rios an extra year to adjust to MLB pitching (i.e. he won't have to face really tough righthanders). It's the role that I thought Gabe Gross was destined to fill in 2006, but it's not a huge stretch to imagine Hinske doing it instead.

Is Johnny Mac really necessary next year? Without him in the mix, I can envision a rotation of Adams, Koskie, Hill, and Hudson at 3B-SS-2B with Hill playing the role of supersub, especially against lefthanded pitching. Though I suppose there is room for both of them.

LF: Johnson/Cat
CF: Wells
RF: Rios/Hinske
3B: Koskie
SS: Adams
2B: Hudson
1B: Overbay
DH: Hillenbrand
UT: Hill, McDonald
C: Zaun, Quiroz

That's not bad, not bad at all...

Leigh - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 02:58 PM EST (#136989) #

ESPN is reporting a six player trade that sends Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and a minor leaguer to Texas for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge.

Maldoff - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:01 PM EST (#136991) #

Damn you Leigh.....I was just about to report that!!!!

actionjackson - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:02 PM EST (#136992) #

I would think the most logical choice for a conversion (can I get an Amen pulleeaassee!) to the outfield would be Russ Adams. I feel Hinske, Hill, and Hillenbrand (though he has allegedly lost weight) are all a bit chunky and might wear down over the course of a season. Adams is young, lithe, fleet afoot, which would probably give him better range than the others and I think it would take the pressure off his throwing difficulties (a la Knoblauch). Also, in the outfield, there's more time to react, hence maybe his booting of balls goes down. Platoon him with Rios in RF, open up SS for Hill, make Hillenbrand the every day DH and trade Hinske. Players on roster might look something like this:
C-Zaun, Quiroz
1B-Overbay
2B-Hudson
3B-Koskie
SS-Hill
2B/SS-Macdonald
1B/3B-Hillenbrand
LF-Cat/Johnson
CF-Wells
RF-Adams/Rios

That's 13 players. Of course, if we could get Reggie Sanders and do some fat trimming, I'd be much happier, despite Mr Sanders health record. When he plays whew! I agree that giving him some DH time would reduce the pounding he would take, and he's an awesome physical specimen. Mrs Action is crossing her fingers for a Reggie signing. She's followed his career, courtesy MLB Extra Innings for a while now. I say sign him and worry about the trimming later. Nobody gets paid until April. There's plenty of time for adjustment until then.

Leigh - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:04 PM EST (#136993) #

Is it just me, or was Young's 2005 better than any of Eaton's five full seasons? Sledge and Gonzalez are both touted as potentially good hitters. Daniels pulled off the deal of the year with the Wilkerson trade, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt, I suppose.

Pistol - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:05 PM EST (#136994) #

Well that trade strikes me as odd. If I were the Rangers I think I'd almost rather have Chris Young than Adam Eaton.

Newton - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:20 PM EST (#136996) #

Young is going to look great in Petco.

I'll save you some money on your fantasy mags this offseason and let you know that Young will be a top 30 fantasy pitcher in 2006.

Highly questionable trade for the Rangers.

binnister - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 03:53 PM EST (#136998) #

Colour me puzzled about that trade too.

Insert Lilly (for Eaton) and Clulk/or/Fraser (for ...the other guy) and do you do that trade?

I think so.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:05 PM EST (#137000) #

Blue Jays agreed to terms with infielder John McDonald on a one-year, $500,000 contract.
He gets a $100,000 raise. McDonald, who was reacquired by the Blue Jays last month, will be one of the club's reserve infielders. He shouldn't have any value in AL-only leagues. Dec. 20 - 3:57 pm et

That's not a bad deal for a guy who can protect the lead late in the game. With our new stopper and better SP we should do better in one run games.

actionjackson - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:15 PM EST (#137002) #

I would have agreed re:Young for Eaton, until I looked at the fact that Young's an extreme flyball pitcher which might not bode well for his future at Ameriquest. You wouldn't know this from his homeruns allowed this year, nothing shocking: 19 in 164 innings or something like that. But Daniels seems bent on making the pitching staff over into more of a groundball staff. Eaton represents an upgrade in the groundball department: something like 1.2 GO/AO, but is that enough to give up an arm like Young? I for one don't think so. I think Daniels got hosed. Clearly, if he wasn't before, Wilkerson is off the market now.

Wedding Singer - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:15 PM EST (#137003) #

I looked up Eaton's and Young's stats with the intent of arguing that Eaton is the better pitcher, but he doesn't appear to be - check out the career stats:

Young - 7.34 K/9 2.46 BB/9 0.68 GB/F Age 26
Eaton - 7.04 K/9 3.18 BB/9 1.13 GB/F Age 28

Surprisingly, Young has similar home/road splits, while Eaton pitched significantly better at home. Young should flourish in PETCO, where his penchant for flyballs will not hurt him as much; while the Rangers may like that Eaton is more of a groundball pitcher, better suited to their home park. In addition, when you factor in that Young is two years younger, and that Eaton will be very expensive after this year, AND SD picked up Gonzalez and Sledge, I think SD definitely got the better end of this deal.

actionjackson - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:25 PM EST (#137006) #

binnister, I highly doubt the Rangers would have any interest in Lilly: extreme flyball pitcher. Batista is another story though as he was an extreme groundball pitcher prior to losing 15 of his 17 pitches last year as the closer. At least Batista has a good health record. I don't have the specifics, but I think Eaton's been injured a lot and he's just 28. Oh well, I think Daniels could have done a lot better, but what the hell do I know? If this is the trade he has been holding off on forever, colour me disappointed.

Pistol - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:45 PM EST (#137008) #

1.13:1 is not a groundball pitcher. The GB/FB average is something in the 1.25 range.

I'd be curious to know what the real reason are behind the moves for the Rangers (which we'll probably never know) because it doesn't seem to make sense even accounting that Young is an extreme flyballer.

Chuck - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 04:54 PM EST (#137010) #

while the Rangers may like that Eaton is more of a groundball pitcher, better suited to their home park.

A lot of Eaton's groundballs seemed to have no problem clearing the distant PETCO fences.

Chuck - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 05:44 PM EST (#137012) #

Here's a HoF related link that was linked to in a BP article. It's nice to see that voting privileges aren't wasted on dufuses.

Twilight - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 06:05 PM EST (#137014) #

With all of the problems that ballpark seems to cause, you would think the Rangers would renovate a bit.

Jim - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 07:21 PM EST (#137022) #

'Free-agent reliever Octavio Dotel has signed with the Yankees, FOXSports.com has learned.'

I like that move for them depending on the money.

Jim - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 07:40 PM EST (#137024) #

As for the early non-tenders, If I were in charge I'd at least try to bring in Pete LaForest and Tyler Yates on minor league deals with Spring Training invites.

Jim - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 07:41 PM EST (#137025) #

Seems the money is 2MM guaranteed with incentives that can get it to 5.25MM. After a little thought with no option year, I don't know how much I love it.

Leigh - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 07:51 PM EST (#137026) #

Eaton for Young makes sense. Otsuka for Sledge makes sense. I can't seem to figure out why Gonzalez was included. Again, I was so impressed with the Wilkerson deal that I assume that I am missing something here.

R Billie - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:35 PM EST (#137028) #

Otsuka for Sledge does not make sense. Otsuka has shown to be a very valuable reliever for the past couple of years while Sledge showed he was decent for a corner outfielder his first go around and spent most of of his second year nursing a serious hamstring injury. Including Gonzalez is a bit much but makes a lot more sense for SD.

If you factor in salary in the Young for Eaton deal, that one doesn't make sense for the Rangers either.

melondough - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:40 PM EST (#137030) #

Cubs signed outfielder Jacque Jones, who had been with the Twins, to a three-year, $16 million contract.
Jones should be an upgrade over Jeromy Burnitz, though not as much of one as the Cubs would like. He's only had an 800 OPS once in his career, but that's because the Twins never used him strictly against right-handers, as they should have. In addition to his reasonable offense, he'll play very good defense in right field. All in all, he's worth $5 million per year. It's just up to the Cubs to use him properly. That means sitting him against left-handers and keeping him in the bottom half of the batting order. Dec. 20 - 8:22 pm et

Wow. Is this a good deal for Jones?

R Billie - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:44 PM EST (#137031) #

Eaton's supposed groundball tendancies don't seem all that significant either. His G/F ratio is 1.08 for his career and 1.07 for his last three years spanning 511 innings. That's a neutral ratio at best.

Meanwhile, Chris Young IS an extreme flyball pitcher (0.68 G/F in 201 career innings) but has allowed a tolerable 26 homeruns in those innings, especially in Arlington. Eaton meanwhile has allowed 62 homeruns in the last three years (511 innings) which is a very similar ratio despite pitching in spacious Petco rather than cozy Arlington.

R Billie - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:53 PM EST (#137034) #

I think saying the Jones deal is a good one is very strong. Yes he does fare better against lefties with a slightly better than .800 ops in recent years but that only puts his performance on par with guys like Eric Hinske who also have similar platoon splits.

Jones 2005 vs RHP: .268/.348/.466, .814 ops
Hinske 2005 vs RHP: .283/.358/.452, .811 ops

Of course Jones is more consistent year to year than Hinske but he never put up the .900+ ops against RHP that Hinske put up in his rookie year. Jones also has good outfield range but isn't much of a thrower.

All in all, I think you get what you pay for in Jones but if you don't like Hinske at $5 million then Jones isn't that much better, other than the fact that he can play a decent outfield while Hinske seems not to be good at any position.

Ron - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 08:57 PM EST (#137035) #

The Jays have inked PM John McDonald.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051220&content_id=1284969&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

Jordan - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 10:55 PM EST (#137039) #

I'd be taking a look at Jason Phillips too, non-tendered today by LA.

Smithers - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 11:12 PM EST (#137042) #

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5185202

" NEW YORK - The New York Yankees grabbed center fielder Johnny Damon away from the rival Boston Red Sox, reaching a preliminary agreement Tuesday night on a $52 million, four-year contract."

Wow! Damon to the Yankees! It'll be tough to live up to Womack's legacy, but good luck sir.

Terran - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 11:20 PM EST (#137043) #

I'm looking at the bright side. Our shot at the AL East wasn't the greatest. But we got a real shot at the wild card. Without Damon the Red Sox are a lesser team and thus easier to overcome.

Ron - Tuesday, December 20 2005 @ 11:27 PM EST (#137045) #

The Yanks are looking really scary at the moment.

Here's their potentional batting order:

Damon
Jeter
A-Rod
Sheffield
Giambi
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Williams

A starting rotation of:
Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wang, Wright

Bullpen:
Rivera,Farnsworth,Dotel,Chacon,Villone,Small,Myers

greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 12:05 AM EST (#137046) #

Yup, the Yanks (SOSH refers to them as the MFY...use your imagination) are looking pretty good for 2006. That is one tough lineup. Terrific OBP, power, a bit of speed. And their defense is suddenly quite a bit better. Really makes me wish we had Giles in RF. I don't think we have a single player who could break into their lineup 1-6.

timpinder - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 12:31 AM EST (#137051) #

We still have better pitching IMO, but that lineup is SCARY good.

Until today I had Boston winning the AL East, but Damon jumping over to the dark side changes everything.

AWeb - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 12:50 AM EST (#137053) #

Jays best hope to beat the Yanks lineup is a few injuries. They are quite old, see age in parentheses. Putting Bernie Williams in the lineup would help too (come-on Torre mancrush), as that would mean Giambi plays defense.

Damon (32)
Jeter (32)
A-Rod (30)
Sheffield (37)
Giambi (35)
Matsui (32)
Posada (34)
Cano (23)
Williams (37)

The pitching though, just doesn't look that great. Johnson is 42 years old, Mussina's 37 and hasn't been above average for two years, Pavano only ever had one good year, same for Wright, and who knows about Wang (not me, I'm sure someone does). Rivera turns 36, and must be tired form constantly not allowing anyone to reach base last year (OK, I'm reaching). Problem: almost everything went wrong with the pitching staff last year that a Jays fan could have hoped, and it didn't matter that much.

Now if only some of the aging Yankee baters would show a significant decline. Because this line of reasoning applied last year as well, and I was hopeful then too.

Gitz - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 12:58 AM EST (#137054) #

Gonzalez is young enough to improve, but it took him three years at AAA before he posted a slugging percentage over .500, and he hasn't shown anything in his brief time in the majors. Plus, you've got to wonder about a guy who was the number-one overall pick in the draft just five years ago and who has already been traded twice.

This is a pretty darned good trade for the Padres, as Leigh is spot on: Young is already better than Eaton, who strikes me as being a right-handed Eric Milton. That is to say, his reputation exceeds his worth.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 01:02 AM EST (#137056) #

I'm hoping Sheffield's wear and tear catches up and Giambi regresses. Given that and Posada's decline, the Yankees bats aren't so scary.

On another note, I feel like a heel for trying to start discussion of this in the new Spring Training thread. I'm new here and don't understand or realize where breaking news is to be discussed.

As a suggestion, might the batter's box groundskeepers consider adding a section of the site for breaking news and its discussion? I understand there is a desire to keep threads on the posted topic, but many people want to discuss breaking news or stories they read somewhere. And if any admins here want to start calling yourselves groundskeepers and aren't already, I'd be honored to inspire it. And if there's any help needed for coding anything, my offer still stands.

Gitz - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 01:02 AM EST (#137057) #

So, uh. You pitch around so-and-so to get to ... who on the Yankees? Cano is easily the worst hitter on the team, but geeze, the guy can crush a mistake. They could score 1000 runs next year -- and they'd better, because that pitching staff is not a sure thing.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 01:10 AM EST (#137058) #

I'd certainly want to have Burnett for $55-mil and 5 years rather than Damon for $52-mil and 4 years.

Really, couldn't the Yankees have had Damon for $60-mil and 6 years? Would anyone think they're stupider had they done that?

Ron - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 01:14 AM EST (#137059) #

No matter which way you spin it, the Yanks starting pitchers and relievers as a whole weren't good last season. This was due to a combination of poor performance and injuries.

And then:
- Womack got 329 AB's
- Giambi was in such a funk in the beginning, people were saying he should be sent down to AAA
- Bernie Williams was awful out in CF and way below average at the plate
- The backup catcher (Flaherty) was given 127 AB's and he put up a .165/.206/.252 line
- For most of the season, Tanyan Sturze was a key bullpen reliever

This team was reduced to picking players like Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small, and Mark Bellhorn off the scrap heap.

The end result of these "disasters" was a team that won 95 games.

By afraid in 06, be very afraid. The Yanks next season could win 105+ games.

Gitz - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 01:53 AM EST (#137063) #

Choosing between Damon and Burnett's contracts is something like having to choose between watching C-Span and C-Span2. Does it really matter in the end? They're both iffy at best.

If anything, Burnett's deal is worse, since pitchers are inherently more unpredictable than hitters. With Damon, the Yankees know what they're getting, and at 36, when the contract expires, Damon will still be, for the most part, the player he is now. Thin, athletic players age well.

Terran - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 02:36 AM EST (#137065) #

There's a lot of ways that the Yankees could still fall, but with Damon I don't think there aging offense is one of them. Too many things have to all go wrong to ruin that for them. It has to be what it was last year, their pitching that's the weakness.

But again, this is a devasting blow to the Red Sox who I think we now have a serious chance of surpassing.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 03:21 AM EST (#137066) #

Thin, athletic players age well.

Tell that to Bernie Williams, who hit the wall of aging at 34.

As JP has been wont to say, every contract is a risk.

Sadly, the Yankees bulpen isn't likely to be as bad as the Jays' that ruined their 2003 season of 86-76. Bringing in Farnsworth, Dotel, Villone and Myers should be adequate replacements for Gordon, Quantrill and Heredia/Embree/Stanton, but here's hoping for the newcomers' curse that the Unit got.

In the meantime, I'll hope Santa brings me the Gary Sheffield voodoo doll I asked for and that Jeter does an MJ and decides he's had enough baseball and is going to try out for the Knicks. Maybe A-rod will follow suit and suit up for the Jets.

rtcaino - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 04:00 AM EST (#137068) #

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/

New Blair Blog.

Newton - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 09:01 AM EST (#137069) #

Any idea who will spot Giambi at 1st and DH for the Yanks?

Their lineup might get scarier yet.

Jordan - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 09:22 AM EST (#137072) #

I wonder who the Red Sox will get to play centerfield? Considering they're not exactly a defensive powerhouse and that CF in Fenway is a major piece of real estate, they'd better get someone with wheels.

So I'll say it again: Manny Ramirez for Carlos Beltran. It just makes too much sense not to do it.

The Yankees look very good, but the Yankees always look very good in December. It's how they look in August that matters, and that lineup tilts heavily on the wrong side of 30. And it remains to be seen how well Damon will play when he has to shear his shaggy locks as per Yankee policy....

Leigh - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 09:45 AM EST (#137078) #

Damon's value has to be considered within its context. If Torre was actually going to run Bubba Crosby out there everyday - and if the recent past is any indication, he would have (Womack, Sierra, etc.) - then this signing removes the Yankees' sinkhole. Replacing Crosby with Damon is the offensive equivalent (roughly, using runs created) of replacing Frank Catalanotto with Manny Ramirez.

This is all based on the assumption that Crosby is as bad as I think he is, which may not be the case.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 10:17 AM EST (#137088) #

The prospect who goes from San Diego to Texas in the Eaton-Young trade has not been named yet. If it is a Grade C prospect, the Padres have made out like gangsters. Chris Young is a far better pitcher than Adam Eaton, and the addition of Gonzalez makes it a completely one-sided trade, on the order of last year's Mulder ("the truth is out there") deal. Incidentally, that makes 2 Chris Youngs dealt this off-season. How often does that happen?

I've already commented on the Damon signing in the poll. In short, he'll be an average offensive and defensive centerfielder at an exorbitant price, but at the same time a significant upgrade for the Yankees. With the additions of Damon, Farnsworth and Dotel and the loss of Williams, Womack and Gordon, the Yanks look to me to be poised to win 98-100 games next year.

Jim - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 10:47 AM EST (#137098) #

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=136818

With you on Phillips. He's a decent fit I think. I think he'd have to get guaranteed money though.

Jim - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 10:51 AM EST (#137100) #

Lee Sinins has the prospect going to Texas as C Billy Killian in his ATM email today.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 10:57 AM EST (#137105) #

Billy Killian was a 3rd round pick of the Padres in 2004. He's only 19, but hasn't hit at all at any level.

Chuck - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 11:03 AM EST (#137106) #

I agree with all those who have commented on Damon. He doesn't have to be great for this move to be great because of the incremental value he adds over Crosby and/or Williams. A huge, huge move for the Yankees, at least in the short term.

Now they can pursue a low cost 1B to slide Giambi to DH, and their roster, though old, would appear set. Hello Choi? He re-signed with LA but figures to be expendable, figuring to only get AB's once Garciappara inevitably goes down to injury (unless Izturis then takes over 2B moving Kent to 1B, a plan that had been bandied about).

The Ramirez-for-Beltran trade would make more sense had the Mets kept Cameron to backfill CF. Unless there's someone I'm not thinking of, wouldn't the Mets be then putting themselves in the thin CF market, looking to overpay for a Jeremy Reed with, say, Kris Benson (with a shrieking Anna's permission, of course).

Speaking of Jeremy Reed, do the Red Sox now more forcefully pursue a Clement or Arroyo-for-Reed trade? The Mariners do have Suzuki (sorry, Ichiro!) to backfill CF and Bavasi seems hell bent on bringing in a couple of new, expensive baubles this year.

Jim - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 11:47 AM EST (#137114) #

But Killian made it to AAA at the age of 18! :)

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 12:02 PM EST (#137115) #

Thanks, Jim, for passing on the word.

Bringing up a catcher who is too young to drink to triple A is a recipe for disaster.:)

Gitz - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 04:59 PM EST (#137150) #

Good point re: Bernie Williams. But he always had "old-player" skills -- i.e power and patience -- and Bill James has always been of the mind that those players do not age well, regardless of their physique. Plus, Bernie is not as thin as Damon; he's more muscular, and at any rate, Damon is naturally faster. I don't expect much decline over the course of the deal. I have little confidence that Burnett will earn half of his contract.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 11:16 PM EST (#137162) #

Okay, so would you equate Damon more as a Kenny Lofton-type then? His all-star status clock checked out at age 34 too, and while Damon may battle injuries and be a useful player for four years in the way Lofton has, I don't see that he's a better bet at $13-mil per than the more patient and powerful Giles with $10-mil per to be a perennial all-star candidate. And at that money, why aren't you buying an all-star candidate?

Geoff - Wednesday, December 21 2005 @ 11:24 PM EST (#137163) #

And don't think baseball didn't notice that Lofton isn't an all-star candidate anymore.

After earning a career-high $8 million in 2001 at age 34, he has had seasons of $1, $1, $3, and $3 million on 3 contracts. Who gave him a two-year contract at $3-million per? WHO do you think...?

And yesterday he signed a $3.85 million, one-year contract with the Desperate Dodgers.

as the world turns ...

Mike Green - Thursday, December 22 2005 @ 10:19 AM EST (#137182) #

Bernie Williams arrived in the big leagues as a thin fast centerfielder with above-average plate discipline and some doubles power. At the time, he bore more resemblance to a young Barry Bonds than to Tom Brunansky or Phil Plantier (young players with old player skills).

I suspect that it would have been better for his career if he had been moved from centerfield at about age 30 due to health and body type (at that point), but remaining there was apparently a matter of pride for him. Pride does come before a fall.

I think that Damon's chance of maintaining his performance level in his mid 30s is higher than Bernie's was.

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