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Analysis At the Quarter Pole

The Blue Jays have played 40 games this season.  The good news is that at their current .575 winning percentage they are on pace for 93 wins.  The bad news is that 93 wins right now is 3rd in the AL East and 3rd in the wildcard.

What do the players look like spread over 162 games?



 

Player

AB

HR

RBI

Runs

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Gregg Zaun 227 20 53 28 0 0.339 0.383 0.696 1.080
Alex Rios 547 32 117 101 16 0.356 0.374 0.667 1.041
Vernon Wells 648 41 134 105 16 0.350 0.401 0.613 1.014
Troy Glaus 559 49 138 142 4 0.261 0.360 0.587 0.947
Frank Catalanotto 385 12 65 53 0 0.305 0.429 0.484 0.913
Reed Johnson 312 0 24 101 16 0.364 0.473 0.429 0.902
Shea Hillenbrand 531 16 77 81 0 0.344 0.380 0.511 0.892
Lyle Overbay 571 20 97 73 4 0.298 0.385 0.468 0.853
Bengie Molina 417 16 49 49 0 0.291 0.327 0.447 0.774
Russ Adams 446 8 65 73 4 0.255 0.306 0.382 0.688
Eric Hinske 219 4 20 36 0 0.259 0.333 0.352 0.685
Aaron Hill 531 0 41 53 0 0.206 0.241 0.282 0.524
John McDonald 211 0 8 36 16 0.231 0.255 0.250 0.505

*  I have to say I had no idea Zaun had a SLG% that high.
*  No surprise, but Rios would be the player who broke out the most this season
*  Glaus' counting stats would make him an MVP candidate, and Wells isn't far behind.  It strikes me as odd that Wells has so many fewer runs than Glaus when his OBP is higher.
*  The Jays would get 36 HRs and 102 RBIs from the catcher position
*  Aaron Hill - ouch.

Starters

Innings

Wins

Ks

BBs

HRs

ERA

Roy Halladay 227 20 126 41 20 3.04
Ted Lilly 186 16 146 101 28 3.52
Josh Towers 154 4 81 49 41 8.45
Gustavo Chacin 158 20 93 65 41 5.31
Casey Janssen 130 8 53 20 4 3.06
A.J. Burnett 41 0 41 8 16 6.30
Relievers
B.J. Ryan 74 0 81 16 0 0.48
Scott Downs 70 0 57 28 12 4.58
Pete Walker 70 4 69 24 12 4.58
Justin Speier 58 4 36 32 4 1.84
Vinnie Chulk 58 0 49 16 16 7.36
Jason Frasor 53 4 41 32 8 8.31
Scott Schoeneweis 49 0 32 20 8 7.30
Brian Tallet 28 4 20 16 12 9.00
Dustin McGowan 21 4 28 24 4 7.94
Francisco Rosario 20 4 20 4 0 0.00
Shaun Marcum 9 0 8 16 4 13.50

 BJ Ryan is on pace for 36 saves.  Pete Walker is on pace for 4 saves.

*  Halladay with 20 wins - seems realistic
*  Chacin with 20 wins giving up 41 HRs - not so realistic
*  Lilly - 16 wins, 3.52 ERA in a hitter's park - free agency will be kind
*  BJ Ryan's a decent pitcher
*  Speier's not bad either - free agency will be good to him too
*  Chulk, Frasor, SS Loogy, Tallet, McGowan, Marcum - ouch

 

Posted by Pistol on Friday, May 19 2006 @ 10:00 AM EDT.
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Mick Doherty - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#147170) #
If Chacin wins 20, gives up 40+ homers AND strikes out less than 100, they should create some kind of new award for him. I bet that's never been done.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#147173) #

And does it all in 158 innings with a 5.31 ERA.  No, I'm pretty sure that hasn't been done.  But, Alex Rios has a better chance of hitting 50 homers than there is of  this pace continuing...

 

[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#147174) #

I probably should have put this in initially:  Runs scored 936, runs allowed 802.

Prior to the season I had guessed 800/715.

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Spookie Wookie - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#147185) #

The Jays tend to start out the season with good offence and bad pitching-- I guess mostly as a result of the dome being closed?

Here are the numbers for the past 5 Aprils.  First what the april numbers project to, and then what the final tally at the end of the season was:

2005, Apr proj: 791rs /764ra (122/118/25g), final: 775/705

2004, proj: 736/884(100/120/22), final: 719/823

2003, proj: 894/1068 (149/178/27), final: 894/826

2002, proj: 837/1161 (124/172/24), final: 813/828

2001, proj: 927/687 (143/106/25), final: 767/753

 

[ Reply to This ]
Jonny German - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#147191) #
Wow, that's a pretty strong trend. 8 of 10 April projections too high, 1 bang on, 1 too low.
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John Northey - Friday, May 19 2006 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#147197) #
Hadn't checked the stat logs in awhile.  Interesting to compare to 2005...

Players with an 800 or better OPS
2005 - two - Catalanotto (818) and Griffen (1.000 over 13 AB)
2006 - 8 - all at 850 or better with 3 above Griffen's 1.000

OBP above 350
2005 - 3 - Cat, Zaun, Menechino - Cat #1 at 367
2006 - 8 - All at 360+ with all but one above 370 and 3 over 400

Slg above 450
2005 - 3 - Griffen, Wells, and Cat (Hilly was at 449) - Griffen only one above 465 at 692
2006 - 7 - All at 468 or above, 3 are over 600 (Zaun, Rios, Wells)

Sweet outside of poor Hill & Adams.  Guess getting married screwed them up :)  Luckily we can expect them to improve later which will help when the others start coming back to earth.

Pitching...
ERA Below 4.00
2005 - 9 - included 3 guys with 19+ starts and all but one over 50 IP (Marcum)
2006 - 6 - 3 starters, 3 core relievers, and Rosario

Team ERA
2005 - 4.06
2006 - 4.77

Interestingly enough...
WHIP
2005 - 1.33
2006 - 1.36

Hard to draw anything from the pitching really, other than Towers 2006 is much worse than Towers 2005, Janssen is a keeper, Ryan is a stud, and Lilly will probably drive us nuts in the summer.

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