Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - What Got Into The Reds?

The Cincinnati Reds have traded Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner to the Washington Nationals in exchange for Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson.

Early returns on the deal from around the 'net have the Reds trading away a hundred-dollar bill for a roll of pennies, but I don't buy that. Wayne Krivsky has made some astute moves with his talent so far and there is more under the surface here than we know.

Most notable, and sure to draw derision (it has already), is the "challenge" swap buried in the deal of Lopez for Clayton. To many people, it's an absurd deal but I think that on the contrary, it may be a season-saving move for the Reds. Leaving aside the fact that Clayton is hitting almost as well as Lopez is when you take their home parks into account, there is vast gulf between the two players defensively. Even at 36, Royce Clayton still plays a very competent shortstop. Felipe Lopez, though, hasn't improved by one whit with the glove since he played in Toronto and his defensive numbers show it. With Lopez unable to read hitters or make the easy play, the Reds had a weak link defensively that they couldn't let fester.

That being said, if the move was made to improve the Reds' pitching and defense, they made the wrong move in getting rid of Austin Kearns, who was their best defensive outfielder. We'll have to see what other moves the Reds make to solidify their pennant charge in order to fully make sense of this move, but don't discount the effect that an improved bullpen could have on Cincy's chances. With their uncertain starting pitching, a solid bullpen can go a long way to not just preserving games, but winning them outright.

The Nationals, of course, have done very well for themselves. Once again, Jim Bowden's best quality - his willingness to pick up the phone, explore a deal, and move his talent - has landed him in the pink. If anyone was laughing at him for signing Harris and Clayton earlier this season, they should stop now.

Thoughts, everyone?

Posted by Bruce Wrigley on Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 04:16 PM EDT.

What Got Into The Reds? | 41 comments | Create New Account

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Pistol - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#150631) #

I can't say I disagree with the masses. It seems odd that no other team would be able to do better.

However, both Bray and Majewski are real early in their service times and Kearns & Lopez are nearing free agency. So from a cost perspective it'll save the Reds some down the road. But that's assuming of course that you think Bray and Majewski are going to be quality relievers for some time which I wouldn't count on.

This seems to indicate that Soriano won't be around for much longer.

Ron - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#150632) #

I had to check the names in the deal 3 times just to make sure my eyes weren't fooling me.

Talk about a 20 cents on the dollar trade for the Reds.

The only logical explanation from the Reds standpoint is that they're trying to dump salary. This trade will probably go down as one of the most lop-sided deals in the past 10 years.

Jdog - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#150633) #

Like I said In the BBFL thread, if this is the going rate for good middle relief, J.P needs to look into dealing Speier. That being said I wouldn't be suprised to see Majewski as the closer in Cinci.

As for the Nationals GM, he got roasted for the Soriano/Wilkerson deal.....how much grief he took here on the internet by stat freaks and the like, who love Wilkerson, made me laugh. I think he obviously made another fine move here as his team desperatly needed some offense(along with everything else).

Cristian - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#150634) #

The Soriano deal will only be a feather in Bowden's cap if he can peddle him for useful parts. If not, it doesn't really matter that Soriano is having a better year than Wilkerson. Soriano may be an All-Star but he's one being paid $10M on a last place team. Had Wilkerson stayed in Washington, he'd have been cheaper, not a pending free agent, and the Nationals would be no worse off in the standings.

MatO - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#150635) #

I don't think this is much of a deal for Cinci either now or for the future.

Kearns is having a nice rebound season and has hit as well on the road as at home, I think a year from FA
Lopez is not as good as last year but his OBP is .355
Wagner has been awful
Bray is a short-reliever, the best player Cinci gets but little experience
Majewski's peripherals are lousy, I'm sure he'll be exposed once he's out of Washington
Royce Clayton?
Harris is almost 26 and in the minors, a bit of potential there
Thompson is in the NYP

I don't get it.

Paul D - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#150637) #

Deals like this make me think that the Jays should have explored trading Frasor and Chulk last year.

Or this year, when they're back up and get hot. Middle relievers, unless they're Mark Eichorn, are very up and down. But sometimes someone will give you a whole bunch for them. If you think that Marcum can replace Chulk/Frasor, you start looking into trading Chulk/Frason. (Not saying that JP didn't do this)

dan gordon - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#150639) #

Washington's batting order looks strong now with Kearns and Lopez added to Soriano, Johnson, Zimmerman and Vidro. They've really helped themselves here. On the other hand, I don't think this is quite as one sided as some are saying. Lopez is a liability in the field, and is one of those switch hitters who really isn't a switch hitter - he can't hit lefties very well, and you don't really want to platoon at SS. Kearns has been very injury prone as well as inconsistent throughout his career, and both of them are close to free agency. The Reds' bullpen has been killing them. Bray and Majewski address a glaring weakness. Clayton improves the infield defense, and isn't a total stiff at the plate. Harris popped 13 HR's, drove in 81 and hit .270 at AAA last year. Not saying Cinci got the better of the trade, but I can see the deal from their standpoint.

Certainly, if Kearns stays healthy, continues to hit like he did in the first half, and Lopez either improves in the field or figures lefties out (or both) and Wash can sign one or both of them long term, they've got a steal.

Bruce Wrigley - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#150641) #

Lopez is a liability in the field, and is one of those switch hitters who really isn't a switch hitter - he can't hit lefties very well, and you don't really want to platoon at SS.

Oddly enough, I think that this is what saves Lopez's value, and why I think he can contribute. There's nothing wrong per se about platooning (or job-sharing) at shortstop - three of the best teams since the war (Casey Stengel's Yankees, Earl Weaver's Orioles, and Alvin Dark's A's) did exactly that.

And Lopez is particularly well-suited to sharing a shortstop job with somebody, because you can get BOTH a righty-lefty platoon and an offense-defense platoon out of him. Lopez hits righties quite well, while the typical run-of-the-mill shortstop can't hit righties at all, since 85% of shortstops are bad right-handed batters. But there are lots of shortstops (John McDonald, I am looking in your direction) who have a fine glove and can hit lefthanders some. (Lopez isn't that bad against LHP himself... .262/.309/.416 over his career). So you have a perfect solution... Lopez starts the game versus RHP, and comes out of the game in the middle if you're ahead. On the other hand, the cheaply-available righthanded-hitting glove man starts the games versus LHP, and Lopez goes into the game in the middle if you're behind. Work it right, and most of the time you can get five innings out of your glove man but three at-bats out of Lopez, almost every game.

The Nationals don't have that guy (they have Damian Jackson and Marlon Anderson, who have decent bats for backup infielders and play second base OK but aren't natural shortstops) but if they're smart they'll find him.

Ron - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#150642) #

The Yanks just picked up Sir Sidney Ponson according to Jerry Crasnick.

They probably didn't want to be overshadowed by the Reds/Nats trade :)

BTW did anybody listen to Jim Rome today? I tuned in 15 mins too late and missed JP's segment. The mini-recap section on the Rome site says he talked about why he's sorry he went after his players in the press.

Bruce Wrigley - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#150643) #

And of course, Marlon Anderson is a LHB anyway. Duh.

Jonathan - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#150646) #

It's been years of injuries and letdowns with Kearns and now he is near FA, and finally strings together a good year in a hitter's park. He's a valuable player no doubt, but Cinci may just be trading him at his peak. Lopez, as everyone in TO knows is a defensive liability and has not hit this year. He is easily replicated and while he is not a star, it will be easy for Clayton to replicate his offense while providing much better defence. I'm surprised they had to throw in Wagner as well - while he has been poor this year, he has shown flashes of sucess and potential in his past.

I don't think this is as lopsided as I first thought. GIven what teams are paying good RPs these days (just look at Showenwiess (sp)), this may not be that bad a move for a Cinci team trying to pounce on a weak Cardinal bunch.

Gerry - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#150647) #

I turned it on half way through the segment with JP. JP said he is an emotional guy, he overreacted, he spoke with the players to apologize, and the players know he is an emotional guy. But he isn't sorry for wanting to win so badly.

tstaddon - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#150649) #

Has anybody watched Wagner pitch this year? What happened to the kid?

js_magloire - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#150650) #

It's taking a while for this deal to sink in.

This deal isn't as bad as I first thought for the Reds. The worst part is that they lose Austin Kearns for 1.5 years. I think he is fulfilling his potential now, and they will be much less likely to sign him back. (-1)

The only difference between Felipe Lopez and Royce Clayton is 9 homeruns and 3 errors, both on the side of Lopez. That's right, he only has 3 more errors than Clayton this year. SO this part of the deal is okay, except that Cinci better have another option for next year at SS, I guess they decided early to not sign back Lopez. (null)

They get the possibly decent Majewski, Daryl Thompson, and the prospect Bill Bray. But they gave up Ryan Wagner. (+2 = positive column for the Reds)

What the washington nationals are going to use these players for 1-2 years just to make a soaring charge to 72 wins is beyond me, while giving up a lot of service time in possibly decent pitchers.

Named For Hank - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#150651) #

Like I said In the BBFL thread, if this is the going rate for good middle relief, J.P needs to look into dealing Speier

...and replace him with who? I thought that the Jays needed pitching and didn't need hitting -- trading away a pitcher is a perverse way to address that need.

Jdog - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#150652) #

....and replace him with who?

I said JP should look into trading Speier if the going rate for middle relief is so high, however I wasn't really advocating he be dealt... I was more just saying ....Wow we should do that. But If we could get a good shortstop for Speier and Adams, we could move Hill back to second and the D would be that much stronger allowing a groundball pitching Brandon League to take over Speier's role without missing a beat. How's that for an answer of the top of my head.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#150653) #

Oddly, Washington has been a hitter's venue this year. Clayton is nowhere near the hitter that Lopez is, if you look at the last 2 and 1/2 years, but is a better fielder. What precisely is Cincinatti's plan for right-field? It seems to me likely that there will be a significant decline offensively and probably defensively, and it's difficult to see that the addition of Bray and Majewski could offset that.

Named For Hank - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#150655) #

But If we could get a good shortstop for Speier and Adams, we could move Hill back to second and the D would be that much stronger allowing a groundball pitching Brandon League to take over Speier's role without missing a beat.

I would have a hard time believing that Brandon League is ready to go when the Jays still have Taubenheim up with the big club -- if he's at all better than Taubenheim, why isn't he up instead? And if he's not better than Taubenheim...

Thomas - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#150656) #

Mike, they're going to play Chris Denorfia in RF. He's hitting .347/.409/.457 for Louisville this year. It's not bad, but he's no Austin Kearns, who I had no idea played that strong a RF.

Ryan C - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#150657) #

I got a nice chuckle out of our friend Keith Law's comments on espn.com

"Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds' organization while he was their GM."

Jordan - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#150661) #

Gary Majewski, if anyone recalls, was a Blue Jay briefly -- one of three Rule 5 pickups the year they got Aquilino Lopez from the Mariners. They eventually returned Majewski to the White Sox and Jason Dubois to the Cubs -- Dubois, in retrospect, could've helped at 1B/DH this last year or so.

Can't say for sure if it's a bad deal for Cincy, but it's a great deal for Washington -- they traded away a lot of filler for some real talent. If they didn't have Ryan Zimmerman at the hot corner, I'd say they should consider making Lopez a third baseman; maybe they'll put him in left field once Soriano goes. Kearns still has a lot of upside and the Nats have a year and a half to see what they've got before he gets really expensive. Hard throwers like Wagner can blossom with a change of venue. Nice haul.

That's Jim Bowden for you -- he'll make some incredibly insane moves and some truly brilliant ones -- you take the bad with the good, and this is good. If he does this well dumping Soriano, the Mets will have some competition next year. They're off to a great start under the new ownership.

MulRedux - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#150662) #

NFH, League *is* up. I don't think he can match what Speier can do this season, but I am not unconvinced he'll be a whole lot worse. With Frasor and Chulk in AAA, I think if you can move Speier [+ prospect is necessary] for an everyday quality middle infielder then you have to move him. The Jays can still resign him in the off-season if they're so inclined.

I'm not nearly as concerned about middle relief as I am about the middle of the infield and the starting pitching.

Rob - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#150665) #

Hey, it's not like this team actually puts its best relievers in the big-league bullpen. Unless there are people who want to make the case for Downs and Tallet over Chulk and Frasor.

Dubois, in retrospect, could've helped at 1B/DH this last year or so.

The same Jason Dubois who has a career OBP under .300 with 13 walks against 81 strikeouts? Averaging 19 homers over a 162 game season? I wasn't thrilled with the arrival of Hillenbrand, but there's no way Dubois was a realistic option.

Of course, I'm the one who wanted Gross to play instead, and I also said the Cubs should have given Dubois the everyday job in 2005, so...I'm going to back away silently now.

Jdog - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#150666) #

Like MulRedux says .......League is up and you owe him a future POD appearance for your oversight

Ryan C - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#150669) #

Found another interesting quote from Bill Ladsen at mlb.com

"Bowden had been speaking to Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky since Cincinnati lifted the ban from dealing with Bowden before the 2006 season started. After Bowden joined the Nationals in Nov. 2004, one of his top priorities was to try to land Kearns and outfielders Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena. Under the old ownership, then-GM Dan O'Brien was told not to deal with Bowden."

Perhaps lifting the ban wasn't such a good idea?

Bruce Wrigley - Thursday, July 13 2006 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#150677) #

That is a nice package of talent the Reds got, though. It's easily possible that the Reds could end up getting the two best (even three best) players in the deal. That possibility doesn't make it a good trade, mind you, but you can't write it off as a no-win.

Jordan - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#150684) #

The same Jason Dubois who has a career OBP under .300 with 13 walks against 81 strikeouts? Averaging 19 homers over a 162 game season?

The same one who posted a .269/.367/.458 line in 443 Double-A at-bats in 2004 and a .316/.389/.630 line in 386 AB at AAA as a 25-year-old in 2004 -- that latter one would've helped Syracuse, at the very least. He played for four different teams at two levels in 2005 after the Cubs yanked him around (he never had a chance playing for Dusty Baker) and the Indians had no place for him. He's doing less well for Buffalo this season -- .253/.308/.432 in 285 AB, but with 21 doubles and 10 HRs. I agree his prospect status has bottomed out, but I still think he could be a good pinch-hitter in the big leagues.

All that said, I also thought Lopez was the best of the three to keep that year, and for one surprising season, he certainly was. Dubois didn't turn out to be a missed opportunity.

CaramonLS - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#150700) #

...and replace him with who? I thought that the Jays needed pitching and didn't need hitting -- trading away a pitcher is a perverse way to address that need.

All comes down to whether the Jays plan on making a realistic run at the Division, as (I'm sure you'll agree with me, the Wild card is out of reach). Competing against 2 teams who can buy.... errr plug their holes with shrewd trades who are ahead of them.

I think middle relief in general is so incredibly fickle that it is entirely possible for League to fill the role of Speier or for Frasor/Chulk to step back into their roles. Its not like he is the BJ Ryan of middle relief or something to that effect. Lest we forget 2 seasons ago JP was putting Speier on the removable Waivers to see if anyone would bite for him.

Geoff - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#150704) #

Why is every media report counting out the possibility of the Wild Card being anyone else but Detroit or Chicago?

If Minnesota goes 45-30 the rest of the way and Detroit skids to 31-42, it's the Twinkies. Odds are against it, but it can happen.

Or if Chicago goes 40-34 while Oakland and Texas tie with records of 51-22 and Toronto skips to a 49-25 record, okay that's far-fetched.

Toronto needs a record of 42-32 to beat a Chicago record of 33-41 from this moment.

The Yanks could be wild if they get a 45-31 record to Chicago's 37-37.

It's less likely, but possible that one of Detroit or Chicago will tank. For the second half, I'm rooting for the less certain possibility.

Mike Green - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#150706) #

You're absolutely right, Geoff. There is no guarantee that the wild card winner will be Detroit or Chicago. They're both good clubs, but a 6-8 game lead at the break is hardly insurmountable.

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#150708) #

Just ask the '78 Red Sox about insurmountable mid-season leads!

That worked out pretty well for them.

Named For Hank - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#150710) #

Hah, that's what I get for skipping the Kansas series. When did they call up League?

So then, League is up... and if they trade away Speier for hitting, who do they replace Speier with when League is already up? Chulk and Frasor have been not so great this year. A second baseman who doesn't throw away the occassional ball -- how much does he have to make up with his bat to account for the difference between 2006 Speier and 2006 Frasor? You can't blame Frasor's year on Adams' wildness.

If something really ridiculous is coming back, okay, sure, make the trade. But it would have to be really ridiculous.

If League makes an appearance in Sunday's game, he'll make a POTD appearance next week.

Mike Green - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#150714) #

The name that has been bandied about among middle infielders is Julio Lugo. Lugo is a solid player, who will be a free agent next year. The D-Rays have B.J. Upton coming up who reasonably could replace him. The Rays would probably be looking for a pitching prospect rather than someone like Speier. It's touchy because the Rays are long-term competitors, and have made a series of smart moves recently under the new management.

Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns would have been a nice addition to about 10 teams, including the home nine.

Jordan - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#150721) #

Actually, following the Huff trade, the Rays have moved Upton to third in the minors; they apparently intend to install the shortstop they acquired from the Astros once Lugo goes. It'd take more than a Tom Mastny to acquire Lugo, I imagine, but it had better not require a Francisco Rosario.

Mike Green - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#150724) #

What makes the whole thing so devilish is that it's not clear what the free agent compensation rules are likely to be at the end of this year. If things remain the same, Lugo might be a type A and arbitration could reasonably be offered to him, with compensation if he elects to be a free agent. But that's a big if.

Everyone has a slightly different take on the pitching prospects. The one who probably has the highest market value and who I would not trade is League. He's always been healthy and I think he's found a niche.

Craig B - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#150725) #

Mike, if you were driven to distraction by Adams's defense, imagine how you'd feel with Lopez out there.

Mike Green - Friday, July 14 2006 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#150726) #

Over the last 3 years, they've been pretty much equal at short, although with different areas of noticeable weakness. Lopez has hit the last couple of years, so the total package would be an improvement. You're just pulling my chain!

On a more serious note, we just had a You Be The Manager moment. Johnson at third, Hill at second with one out after Adams' sacrifice. Catalanotto and Zaun due up with the lefty Sherill on the mound. My thought was: I'd rather have Catalanotto vs. Sherill than Molina vs. Soriano. It might have worked out better.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, July 15 2006 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#150729) #

Exactly, Mike. Molina - Soriano vs Catalanotto - Sherrill is at best a wash in my my opinion. The real trouble is now you lose Cat against the right-handed Seattle late-inning guys. In practice, the game ended with Mottola in the on-deck circle. Had the Jays mounted a rally, you're now faced with the prospect of Chad Mottola flailing away against JJ Putz in a key situation.

An instructive example of the principle that a move has repercussions beyond the immediate situation and that you have to be careful before making a knee-jerk platoon move.

ken_warren - Saturday, July 15 2006 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#150731) #

An instructive example of the principle that a move has repercussions beyond the immediate situation and that you have to be careful before making a knee-jerk platoon move.

I recall Bobby Cox making this same mistake on repeated occasions against the Royals in the 1985 ALCS.

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