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Today, a look at the offseason.


Offseason:

Mike G: The focus of the club should be on winning in 2007. Wells need not be traded nor signed to a long-term contract now.

Wells' expected performance should be pretty clear. Between age 24 and 27, he's had 2 up seasons and 2 down seasons. There is no reason to believe that he won't continue at about the halfway point between the up and down seasons on average- .285-.290, 35-40 doubles, 30 homers, 50 walks. Even in the RC, that's an above-average hitter. He plays slightly above average defence in center, and is very durable. He grew into a leadership role in 2006, and there is little doubt that he will be able to continue in that role.

I have no idea what that's worth on the open market. Beltran signed for $17 million/year, and Wells is pretty clearly a notch or two below Carlos. Vlad signed for $14 million/year a few years ago and Wells is pretty clearly also a notch or two below Vlad. The Twins just picked up a 1 year option on Hunter with a net cost of $10 million, and Wells is a notch above Hunter. I would guess that about $11-$12 million/year is fair market value. Wells turns 28 this off-season; a 4-5 year contract would have modest risk.

Whether it is worth it to the club to sign Wells at fair market value is a difficult question, in light of the uncertain long-term budget constraints. I have complete confidence that Rios could play a fine defensive centerfield, but the loss of Wells might be felt in the overall outfield picture. The fine details of any trade offers and Wells' position matter in making that decision.

Pistol: The difference between these contracts and Wells is that those were signed in different times, particularly Vlad (who also had back concerns at the time). There's a lot more money out there today and a lot more teams that could get into the bidding. I'd be surprised if Wells got anything less than 5 years and $70 million.

Mike G: Pistol is probably right about the market. At 5 years/$70 million, I'd pass and chalk it up to an unfortunate side effect of the 2006 off-season moves.

Personally, I would rather have Alex Rios in 2011 than Vernon Wells, and getting Rios' name on a long-term contract at this point will not cost anything like these numbers. I can imagine though that there might be different views on that question.

Matthew E: I'd rather have Wells than not have him. On the other hand, I don't want to get held up. Maximum years and salary? I dunno... Ricciardi's generally willing to pay extra for someone he really wants anyway, so anything I could say about it is irrelevant. More irrelevant than the rest of it, I mean.

I could see the points of either keeping Wells around for a year or trading him, but: if they do keep him, they had better damn well better offer him arbitration going into the '07-'08 offseason. On the one hand, he might take it, which is good. On another hand, it gives the team longer to negotiate with him, which is good. And on the last hand, at least it leaves them with a draft pick if he eases on down the road.

I'd be fine with Rios if Wells wasn't there. Or maybe even Johnson. Maybe.

Pistol: Rios is the reason why it might make a lot of sense for the Jays to explore trading Wells, regardless of whether he's open to an extension or not. Wells is easily the Jays most valuable trading chip (aside from Halladay) and if the rotation and/or middle infield can be significantly upgrade it has to be considered.

Gerry: The Jays in 2007 will likely be a better team with Wells than without him. The Jays could trade him but they are unlikely to get a single better player back and getting several lesser players back will not make them a better team.

If the Jays were to trade Wells they could be a better team in 2008, assuming they get some younger players back. Plus the Jays would not have paid out $14 mil to $15 mil a season and through some combination of Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Adam Lind and Frank Catalanotto (or another FA) would have the position covered.

At some point the Jays have to stop planning for the future and win now. If the Jays can sign a couple of quality free agents to plug the starting pitching, shortstop or catcher holes then I see them keeping Wells. If they cannot plug their holes then they might have to trade him and plan for 2008.

Pistol: Generally getting the best player in a trade is the way to go. However, I think it’s certainly possible the Jays could trade Wells for a package of players none of who are as good as Wells and still come out ahead.

Magpie: It startles me to say this, but I think priority number one for this off-season is locking up Ted Lilly. There's not a whole lot of starting pitching on the market this winter, and no one is going to be looking harder than the Yankees. And if Barry Zito doesn't want to be a Yankee, who do you think they're gonna call? Who else can they call? Ted the Tease. So I'd want to get Lilly signed, sealed and delivered before the Yankees start kicking the tires.

Gerry: Yes the Jays should try and sign Lilly even for three years and $25 mil. Pitching is a scarce commodity and Lilly is a fairly durable, slightly above average pitcher who could get better with experience/maturity.

The free agent market for starters has been a real crapshoot the last few season with pitchers like Matt Clement and Carl Pavano not working out. as the old saying goes, "better the devil you know than the one you don't."

Craig B: Well, if the difference between Lilly and Zito is $25 million versus $36 million, I'll swallow hard and take Zito. But I think #75 is going to want more than a three-year contract.

Thomas: I'd do $36/3 for Zito over $25/3 for Lilly, but I think the ballpark for Zito will be $75/5. He's got the Cy Young and durability to back it up, particularly in such a weak class.

As for other options, the Jays do need to bring someone in to replace Lilly. They'd need it without the health questions of Burnett, but particularly with those present the team can't afford to have Chacin as the 3rd starter. Trade is one option and it's tough to speculate about that, but if they go the free agent route the pickings are pretty slim.

Vicente Padilla is one of the best choices; he had a 4.50 ERA this year in Texas and has been fairly consistent the last 3 years. However, it's been a few years since he had an ERA under 4 and he's unlikely to give you anything better than what he did this year.

Jeff Suppan would have been an interesting option, but I wonder if his playoff heroics are going to give him a pay boost on the open market that'll exceed his value. Suppan's a pretty solid middle-of-the-rotation guy with a consistent ERA+ of over 100 and he has made more than 30 starts every year since 1999. After that you get names like Tony Armas, Gil Meche, Kip Wells and Adam Eaton who are likely to be paid more than you'd want.

It's pretty slim pickings out there, so for a chance to get Lilly at $7-8 million a year for a few years, I think the Jays should do it.

Alex: The Jays should try to lock Lilly up ASAP for the reasons everyone's already hit on. The problem is, why would Lilly's agent ever close a deal before Zito signs? The Millwood Factor says Lilly makes a killing if Zito gets signed to a five-year deal. Particularly if it's a nonpinstriped team that lands Zito.

Padilla is the only other AL pitcher I'd really consider "interesting." Padilla actually has the high potential rewards to go with the risk of a three-year deal. He could be the best bargain on the market. He carries injury concerns and the dreaded "questionable mental makeup" reputation and had a rotten 2005 in the walk, homer and durability departments, but he returned to form in 2006 in an awful pitchers' park, racking up a full-season-career-high 7+ K rate and establishing himself as an AL team's co-ace. There may be a divisional exchange rate to worry about. He's pitched very well in all but one of his full seasons. It doesn't sound like he's attracting as much hype as he should be. He's only 29. If you can get him to sign a palatable three-year contract, do it. Who doesn't want to see Gibbons' reaction when Padilla breaks out his infamous spontaneous sidearm curve for the first time in a Jays uniform?

Though the Jays probably don't have the cash to go this way while also resolving the shortstop issue, a rotation with Burnett, Lilly, Padilla and Marcum/Chacin in the 2 through 5 slots would be the wackiest, riskiest, high-rewardiest, eccentricest rotation in the league. I'd love it.

Matthew: Priorities this offseason should be:
1. Starting pitching
2. Shortstop (or, if that won't work, second base)
3. A big hitter (can possibly be combined with 2., above)

The first two are obvious. The third... I think this offense is going to take a step back next year. They were running at just about maximum efficiency in '06, and you can't count on that to continue.

Mike G: The priorities should be shortstop, starting pitching, catchers (including hopefully Gregg Zaun), and a backup corner infielder, in that order.

At the right price (and assuming that he'd be content with a back-up role after his 05-06 struggles), David Bell would be a nice acquisition to let Glaus have 30 games at DH, and to fill in, in case of injury. Russ Adams would be fine as the back-up middle infielder in 2007.

Pistol: The Jays don’t trust Adams at SS anymore, he’s not going to be a defensive replacement, and he’s not going to pinch hit for too many players (unless Johnny Mac is the starting SS which is a bigger problem). If that’s the case there’s not much reason in my mind to carry Adams on the 25 man roster.

It sounds like there’s going to be competition from at least the Red Sox and Mets but I think Lugo is a tremendous fit for the Jays. They gave 570 ABs to McDonald, Adams, Figueroa, Alfonzo, and Roberts this year. Of that group the highest OPS was Adams at .601. I think Lugo improves the Jays by at least 5 wins, and maybe more by allowing Hill to stay at 2B.

Besides the obvious areas of need I think the Jays should also look to upgrade on Jason Phillips as the backup catcher (I’m assuming a Zaun/Phillips combo). Phillips can only hit lefties and has no defensive value. If Zaun got hurt the Jays would have a pretty big dropoff.

Gerry: There are two major outcomes that will impact the Jays this offseason, the Vernon situation and the hot market for free agents. All pundits suggest that MLB teams are awash in cash and that many free agents will get contracts that will appear to be very expensive. Will the Jays be able to play in that game, does JP have enough money to both sign Vernon and free agents? Will JP be able to use his persuasive skills to land his targetted players as he did last off-season. These two outcomes give us four combinations, let's consider each one.

1. Vernon elects to stay and JP signs a shortstop, a starter and a catcher. This is the dream scenario, the Jays are serious contenders in 2007.

2. Vernon elects to stay but JP is unsuccessful in luring attractive free agents to Toronto. It will be very difficult for JP to trade Vernon if he wants to stay so even though JP needs to plug holes it will have to be through other means. The Jays tradeable commodities list is short, maybe some middle relievers but that's it unless you sign a free agent to compensate (think Koskie and Glaus). This is possibly the worst scenario with JP looking to resign Johnny McDonald or an equivalent, putting his faith in Josh Towers and Shaun Marcum as starters, and Jason Phillips behind the plate.

3. Vernon doesn't want to stay and JP signs his targetted free agents. In this case there is no need to trade Vernon as free agents have filled the gaps and Vernon will be playing for a contract. JP can sit tight through next July and then decide whether to trade Vernon for prospects, which is what you usually get at deadline day.

4. Vernon doesn't want to stay and JP cannot sign his targetted free agents. In this case JP will look to trade Vernon to plug the gaps.

In summary JP will have to understand the Vernon situation and the free agent signings before he can determine which of these courses to follow as he plans for 2007. Scenario 1 is the most attractive followed by #3, #4 and #2.

Roundtable, Part IV | 78 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
AWeb - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 09:50 AM EST (#157420) #

If the Jays pass on Wells at 5/70 million, just due to the cost,  it would be a head-spinning reversal from last year's offseason strategy. If a closer and injury prone starter get $10 million+ per year, how does a top centre fielder, possibly the best player on your team (win shares leader the last two years), not get that kind of money too? If you want to trade him to fill gaping holes on your team, that's one thing. But don't say he's just too expensive.

And if MLB is awash in money, then saying "he's overpriced this year" is nonsense. Inflation in baseball tends to move in large jumps, and tends not to return. If 14mill/year looks like a lot now, just wait until next year, or the next.

JayFan0912 - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 10:14 AM EST (#157421) #
I wouldn't sign wells to 5/70 ... I don't think he is worth this much, and the money could be spent better. I also disagree that we can't get equal value for wells - the market for cfs is bare, and vw is probably the 2nd best cf in baseball. Any one of these trades sounds good to me:

Wells and overbay for teixeira, laird, and a pitching prospect
Wells for wood/sanatana or maybe aybar/mathis/sanatana
etc.

I think that at least the rangers, tigers, angels, and the bosox would definately have an interest.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 10:24 AM EST (#157424) #

Wow. The Rangers would never, ever, ever do that. Wells is a nice player and a North Texas hometown boy, but do you really think the Rangers would (using BBRef's Most Similar By Age comparisons) replace McCovey/McGriff at 1B with Reggie Jefferson/Donn Clendenon AND throw in their starting catcher AND a pitching prospect for the privilege of having a Shawn Green/Ellis Valentine type in the outfield?

Yes, they need to re-sign or replace Gary Matthews Jr. but that's a WAY overloaded hometown-bias deal. (And yes, speaking of hometowns, I do live in North Texas, but no, I am not a Rangers fan.)

Pistol - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 10:39 AM EST (#157429) #
If 14mill/year looks like a lot now, just wait until next year, or the next.

That's a good point.  There's no reason to believe that revenues will decrease - there's no work stoppage to slow attendence down, the economy is stable, and MLB seems to be growing their internet products significantly.  Salaries are going to continue to climb, it's just a matter of how fast.

I bet the Jays wouldn't be able to sign Burnett for 4 for $48 or Ryan for 4 for $39 this offseason. 

Wells has less risk attached to him than a lot of players.  If he's signed for say 6 for $90 maybe he doesn't return that value, but he's been durable and he's still young so there's less of a chance that the deal will blow up like signing a mid-rotation starter for $8 million might be.



John Northey - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 04:37 PM EST (#157447) #

This winter is a big test for JP.  You have some young players who either showed a breakthrough at the major league level (Rios) or at the minor league level (Lind) and you have big leaguers who are expensive and either a free agent (Cat) or tradable (Wells) while playing those same positions (LF & CF).  Assuming, of course, that Johnson can play RF for a full season (also a big assumption).  Some big time risks are potentially there.  Do you spend around $20 million for each of the next 2 years to keep Wells & Cat or do you spend about $2 million on Rios & Lind?  Where does that other $18 million go to if you go for option #2 and what do you do if Lind and/or Rios are not ready yet and you put them in everyday?

This question is one that Oakland tends to go 'dump the old guys, keep the cheap kids' while NY tends to keep the old and dump the kids (although they do mix in their best kids quite nicely).  JP has to really dig into his scouts hat and decide where he is. 

As for us, what would we all do with $20 million?  Cat/Wells or Rios/Lind/damn good free agent?  Is the spread between Cat/Wells and Rios/Lind as big as the difference between having, say, Barry Zito in the rotation vs Shaun Marcum?

Ron - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 05:20 PM EST (#157449) #
It would take a lot of stones to do this, but if the Jays are unable to aquire a upper rotation starting pitcher, I would try BJ Ryan as a starter. Of course this means Speier is retained by the Jays.

If BJ can dominate for 1-2 innings at a time, let's see if he can do it for 6-7 innings every 5th day. I always hear players from other teams talk about how Ryan's delivery is deceptive. He has thrown over 450 innings in the AL and batters still haven't figured him out. I think it's worth a shot under the scenario I presented.

actionjackson - Thursday, November 02 2006 @ 07:02 PM EST (#157456) #
Ron, is that the Yankee fan coming out in you? The way B.J. throws across his body already puts strain on his arm, and now you want him to go out and throw 100 pitches or so every 5 days? He is a very impressive physical specimen I admit, but doesn't his 91 mph fastball dip to about 87 mph in trying to conserve energy to increase his durability? He has a fastball and a slider, but where's his third pitch? and his fourth? I think this is an argument based in economics rather than physical reality and I think Brandon League has a far greater chance of succeeding as a starter than Ryan does. But I think League's had enough turmoil already and I'd be inclined to leave him where he is even though it's extremely enticing to imagine all those weak ground balls and potentially quick innings. Mark me down for an emphatic no with regards to Ryan and a maybe with regards to League.

Cincinnati never used Ryan as a starter at any level. Baltimore tried him as a starter in 2000 at Rochester. He had 14 appearances and started 4 games, pitching all of 24.2 innings. Let's give him 10 relief appearances at 1 inning per. That leaves 14.2 innings in 4 starts. That's below 4 innings a start and he has never started again at any level...ever. His P/PA averages are also staggeringly high considering his apparent efficiency. The last 3 years they have been 4.5, 4.3, and 4.1. Yeah, he's getting better, but the league average this year was 3.77. For some perspective Abreu and Giambi were around 4.5 P/PA this year. Not exactly the kind of efficiency you want from a guy you're trying to get 7 innings out of. I like Mr. Ryan right where he is thankyou very much.
Marc Hulet - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 11:27 AM EST (#157468) #
I really think Alou and Lorette would add a winning attitude to the team, but I am afraid Vincente Padilla's reputation is to close to that of Loaiza's for my liking. Not to mention his 4.50 ERA is the best he's had in years. The best. Ugh.
Mike Green - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 12:20 PM EST (#157470) #
Alou turned 40 this past July.  You'd never know it from the way he hit, but still he is 40.  More to the point, having a right-handed DH around all season doesn't make much sense to me.  Alou is going to cost a significant amount, and the Jays should probably DH Glaus at least 30 games next year. 

Alou would make a nice mid-season acquisition though.  Playoff contenders usually find a way to add a veteran bat after the All-Star break.  Having Alou and Glaus on your club in the AL playoffs would be a definite plus, but we're ahead of ourselves.

js_magloire - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 01:37 PM EST (#157471) #
Well Alou is very injury prone. Would you extend the same red flags to Mike Piazza, who would be 38 (as a primary DH)?
Mike Green - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 01:54 PM EST (#157473) #
With Catalanotto being a type A free agent, it has become much more likely that he will re-sign with the Jays.  With Catalanotto, Lind and Glaus all deserving of time in the DH slot, I really see no need to sign a primary DH.  The priorities which we discussed in the Roundtable- middle infielder, starting pitching, catching and 3b/1b backup, will demand all of the club's resources. 

Piazza's a better risk than Alou for a club that needs a primary DH, but the Jays are not that club.

Marc Hulet - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 03:21 PM EST (#157482) #
DeRosa does not have the range to play short every day and Graffanino is a grade C shortstop at best and I question his range as well. Either would be OK, not great, as a second baseman if you were to throw Hill over to short. From the looks of the free agent pool, Hill could very well be at short next season. I'm not a fan of signing Lugo.

Maybe the Jays can look to Arizona for Alberto Callaspo and Scott Hairston. Callaspo is a slick middle infielder, albeit it with limited power and Hairston could split time between LF and DH if Catalanotto is not back. Neither figure into the D-Backs' plans and the Jays could offer up a collection of depth with Frasor, Janssen, Taubenheim, Rosario, Thorpe, Houston, Purcey, etc.

Both would be cheap options and allow the Jays to spend money for pitching and catchers, while saving at SS and DH. Heck, grab catcher Johnny Estrada from Arizona too (also not needed by the DBacks) and platoon him with Zaun until Thigpen is ready.

Estrada (Snyder and Montero catch)
Callaspo (Drew and Hudson)
Hairston (Quentin, Young, Byrnes)
for
Frasor (love 'em, but he's expendable if you bring back Speier)
Taubenheim
Rosario

The DBacks get three promising bullpen arms with MLB experience and the Jays fill three holes.

Mike Green - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 03:31 PM EST (#157483) #
Christina Kahrl's take on the Machi signing is here.
China fan - Friday, November 03 2006 @ 09:32 PM EST (#157491) #

     I'm baffled why people are desperately searching for DHs and catchers when the answer is right in front of us.  A clutch hitter who hit 19 home runs last year, with a slugging percentage of .467, who is very eager to play for the Jays next year.  A guy who would help solve problems at two positions (catcher and DH) and who could be signed for an affordable $4 or $5 million.  His name is Bengie Molina.

     I'm convinced that people are overlooking Molina's strengths because he looks bad on the base paths. Okay, I admit that he's a slow runner and his defense has slipped a bit, but he is a reliable clutch hitter with power.  And it won't be hard to bring him back.  He wants to stay, and JP is open to it.

    JP should be focused like a laser on two priorities: upgrading at SS and finding a 3rd starter (Lilly or someone equivalent).   If he does this, and brings back Molina and Cat, I think the Jays will be in contention for a wild card at least.  The pitching will be stronger next year -- both in the bullpen, with League, and in the starting rotatiion, with improvements from Marcum, Chacin and/or Towers, and with one of the younger prospects due for a breakthrough.   There could also be a boost from Lind.  But it's important to preserve the strong hitting of last year. There's no way the Jays should be willing to lose big hitters like Wells, Cat and Molina.  Keep the offence, add an SS and figure out a 3rd starter.  That's the formula.

 

Ryan Day - Saturday, November 04 2006 @ 01:05 AM EST (#157492) #
 Unfortunately, Bengie's not so hot against right-handed pitching: 246/286/389 is barely tolerable from a gold-glove catcher, let alone a DH.

  Of course, that lefty line of 358/383/615 is pretty nifty.Particularly if you were to combine it with Catalanotto's 306/379/449 line against righties. 

  Not that either one would want to be a full-time DH, let alone a platoon one. But it'd be pretty cool if not for those pesky personalities and individual desires.  Bah.

China fan - Saturday, November 04 2006 @ 01:35 AM EST (#157493) #
  But if you split DH between Molina and Cat, and if you give them 50 per cent of their playing time at catcher and left field respectively, it could be an ideal solution.  Especially with Lind potentially to work into the mix at DH and left field.  Of course if Johnson stays strong and Lind lives up to his potential, the Jays can then use Cat as trade bait at the trade deadline.  But it's too early to be certain about Lind.
andrewkw - Saturday, November 04 2006 @ 02:09 PM EST (#157495) #
Except Molina can't hit righties at all.  Any way you look at it he is a liability either catching or dhing batting against right handed pitching.  If hes going to have a reasonable amount of at bats most will come against righties. 
Marc Hulet - Sunday, November 05 2006 @ 02:26 PM EST (#157509) #
Santana also rehabbed a labrum tear while in the minors, which is always a red flag.

It would take A LOT to get Bonderman. Too much, I would imagine for Toronto.

SK in NJ - Sunday, November 05 2006 @ 04:12 PM EST (#157510) #
I don't necessarily agree with the "if Wells doesn't re-sign, the Jays should trade him immediately" line of thinking. Yes, it would be good to get young talent for Wells if he doesn't plan on staying, but at the same time, what about 2007? The Jays are far more likely to contend in 2007 with Wells in the lineup everyday than without him. When a team hasn't made the playoffs in 13 years, it's time to stop thinking about "next year" when the opportunity is within striking distance now. This team's window of opportunity is right now. Halladay is in his prime. Burnett is in his prime. Glaus is probably looking at his last few productive years before injury-related decline starts to creep in. Overbay is in his prime. Ryan is in his prime. This is the time to think about winning right now. If it means losing Wells for draft picks after 2007, then that's the risk you take.

I'm not a huge fan of Ricciardi's spending habits, but I hope he spends money to win in 2007. Trading Wells for Aybar and Santana is a step backwards.
js_magloire - Monday, November 06 2006 @ 02:11 AM EST (#157530) #
Question: what does eveyrone think about the Jays signing Barry Bonds next year for, and I'm just throwing this out there, 8-10 million bucks.

It'd be a major distraction to the club. But attendance would sky rocket.

Just curious.

Mick Doherty - Monday, November 06 2006 @ 04:21 PM EST (#157553) #

Never happen.

First, he'd want twice that and will get at least 12-15M from one of the major market teams; second, if George got a whiff that TO was interested in BB, he'd swoop in with the 15M ... I have to admit, I've wondered if the Sheffield shenanigans are a way to get Bonds in pinstripes for "reclamation" of (Ruth's Yankee) all-time homer record.

 

China fan - Tuesday, November 07 2006 @ 04:20 AM EST (#157565) #

    Jeff Blair finally weighs in on the Jays off-season prospects in a couple of articles in today's Globe.  He has some illuminating news and analysis.  For example: Jays new budget is likely to be around $90-million, leaving around $20 to $22 million for them to spend on the open market for free agents; JP would like to sign Wells, but a trade is still possible if he insists on a rumoured $17-million a year;  the Jays will go after Lilly and Zaun, but Speier could be over-priced and could go elsewhere; it will take a minimum of $40-million over five years to sign Ted Lilly; the Jays could drop Catalanotto in favor of Lind; the Sox will be the biggest competitor for Lugo, probably offering $8-million a year; and free-agent pitchers who interest the Jays will include Vicente Padilla, Gil Meche and Tony Armas Jr.

      On the issue of Wells, here is a quote from Blair:   "For the Jays to trade him, it would take a package like the Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar offer that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made to the Orioles last year for Miguel Tejada."

      Here is a link to the main Blair article, although he adds more in a 2nd piece as well:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20061107.BLAIR07/TPStory/Columnists

Jordan - Tuesday, November 07 2006 @ 01:21 PM EST (#157584) #

This shouldn't be all that complicated: if Wells will settle for something close to $14 million annually it will get done. If he wants $16 million or more? No dice.

That sounds about right to me. I can see Wells as a Blue Jay for 5 years, $75M. That would mean that in the key 2007-09 period, the Jays would be on the hook for a total of $60M for Wells, Glaus, Halladay, Burnett and Ryan (less $3M in '07, when Doc costs less). Assuming around a $90M payroll for argument's sake, that leaves around $30M for the other 20 guys (setting aside costs like Hinske's half-contract). Lyle Overbay's next contract, the new shortstop, and the new Ted Lilly (or the old one) will take up at least two-thirds of that. So now you've got $10M to buy 17 players, and things start getting dicey. It's doable, but you need a lot of minimum-wage guys to play like Aaron Hill.

That said, I don't think it'll happen, because Wells will get $18M or more on next year's market, and he's not going to leave that much money on the table just to play in Toronto. I think JP's best bet is to keep him for his last season, make a big run in 2007, and hope the experience sufficiently excites Wells that he decides to stick around. It's a long shot, but I don't see a better option at the moment.

Jordan - Tuesday, November 07 2006 @ 02:02 PM EST (#157588) #
Tom Verducci compares and contrasts the Blue Jays and Cardinals. Nothing new or very exciting, but an interesting read and a reminder that more depth in the Jays' rotation could've made a lot of difference last year.
Pistol - Tuesday, November 07 2006 @ 02:06 PM EST (#157589) #
New offseason thread is up.

Mike D - Tuesday, November 07 2006 @ 03:56 PM EST (#157596) #

I agree with Jordan, SK, R Billie and Ryan Day, and I'd like to add another point:  Even if you assume that, from an inward-looking organizational perspective, it's worth it to trade Wells to the Angels for 40 cents on the dollar, consider the impact on the 2007 American League wild card race.  The Jays would be making the Angels much stronger by filling an urgent need and allowing them to satisfy that need by purely dealing from surplus.  Unless the Jays win the East -- a very tall order without Wells or an equally powerful and way more expensive replacement -- they'd have to add the Angels (or A's) to the list of Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Red Sox as competition for the wild card.   It's already a club that will be bolstered by full seasons from Kendrick and Weaver.

Trading Wells frees up a negligible amount of money -- certainly not enough to replace his bat (the crucial distinction between '04 Delgado and '07 Wells).  If you lose him this offseason, you lose him.  You're likely going to have to pay eight figures for your #3 hitter in 2008 anyway, whether it's V-Dub or a new acquisition.

Roundtable, Part IV | 78 comments | Create New Account
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