Jeff Blair now says it's an official done deal.  Two years at $7.25-million plus an option for a third year at $3.75-million depending on the number of games played by Zaun in the next two years.

  http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061128.wsptzaun28/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

The distinct implication in this morning's Star, from Griffin as well as others, is that the union scuppered the Barajas deal because it involved Barajas taking a pay cut (which it did).  I'm usually skeptical whenever whispers of The Evil Union manifest themselves, but you have to admit, this has been a strange saga.

    So it turns out that the Jays would have saved $2-million (over two years) if Barajas hadn't cancelled the deal.   The Zaun deal is exactly $2-million more than the Barajas deal.  Now I think we can understand JP's logic a bit better.  He saw Barajas as being roughly as good as Zaun (more power and better defence and younger, but worse OBP) and saw a chance to save $2-million by signing Barajas.  For some bizarre reason, Barajas apparently wasn't talking to his agent and was apparently shocked to realize that his agent had negotiated a deal for a pay cut.  (What, they didn't have cellphones?  they weren't talking to each other?  Barajas and his agent look like idiots on this one.)  So at the last minute, Barajas cancelled the deal, and JP scrambles fast to sign Zaun at the cost of an extra couple million.

     You've gotta give some credit to JP on this one, for his flexibility and his nimble ability to shift gears at the last minute.   But I still think Zaun needs a platoon partner, and Phillips is not really ideal.   What if Molina is still available in January and his cost becomes affordable?  Zaun would blow a gasket -- again.  But it might be best for the Jays.  Their catcher tandem last year was an ideal offensive force, and Molina and Zaun would strengthen the bench as pinch-hitters and back-up DHs for Frank Thomas on his off-days.

It's at times like these that we should remember the words of one of the great balladeers of our time, the immortal Richard Marx:

'Cause it don't mean nothin', the words that they say

Don't mean nothin', these games that people play

No, it don't mean nothin', no victim, no crime

It don't mean nothin', till you sign it on that dotted line.

All the media reported that the Barajas signing was a done deal, and even Gregg Zaun felt sufficient closure on his Jays career that he could fire some parting shots at the front office. But this is a good reminder that until the guy shows up at the press conference and tries on the jersey for the cameras, it's all speculation. For all the dime-store psychology on display here yesterday (especially mine), it was all about the dollars in the end. It always is, really.

I'm happy to have Zaun back, because he's the better offensive player and blocks the plate as well as anyone else in the game. But my "starting pistol" description of his inability to control the running game still stands, and I'd really like to see his backup (or platoon partner) be a strong defender, rather than, say, Bengie Molina.

This deal ended up costing the Jays about $2M more than they had planned to spend on the catcher position. We'll soon see if that has any effect on the club's ability to fill the remaining holes in the middle infield and starting rotation. I would think not, but this has been a bad off-season for assumptions.

  Here's the link to the Boston Herald article which speculates on Texas trading for Vernon Wells:  http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=169391

   It actually suggests that Texas might trade Michael Young for Wells -- which would certainly solve the SS problem anyway, though it does nothing for the pitching problem.

   But if this rumor was true, JP surely wouldn't be bidding hard for Adam Kennedy, as he is.  Kennedy would be a complete waste of money if Young was acquired and Hill shifted back to 2B.   So I'm inclined to be skeptical of the Herald story.

   By the way, the Toronto Star reports today that the Cardinals are now the frontrunners in the bidding for Kennedy, with the Jays and Padres still in the game.

[T]he Toronto Star reports today that the Cardinals are now the frontrunners in the bidding for Kennedy, with the Jays and Padres still in the game.

Turnabout is fair play -- the Cards thought they had AJ Burnett in the bag last winter, only to have the Jays scoop him up, so there'd be a certain parallelism if Kennedy ended up in St. Louis. I'd be happy to see Kennedy as a Jay, but it wouldn't break my heart to see him land elsewhere.

Mick has been adamant in these parts that the Rangers will not trade Michael Young, so I'll assume that the Herald story is way off base. Tell you what, though, if Texas offered me Young for Wells, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Conflicting reports out of Boston -- one says the Red Sox are closing in on Julio Lugo, the other says they've cooled on him considerably and that the Mets and Dodgers are now the frontrunners. In neither case are the Jays mentioned, so I'll probably have to give up any hope of seeing Lugo patrolling shortstop for the Jays.

The other buzz in Boston, reflected in the Herald article, is that JD Drew (or "Nancy," as his Dodger teammates apparently referred to him), is close to joining the Red Sox, and that that might finally mean a Manny Ramirez trade. I don't care how many players the BoSox could buy with the money saved in any Manny trade -- any deal that gets Ramirez out of a Boston uniform is A-OK with me. The Red Sox are almost certain to be a weaker team next year if they trade Manny. Go Theo!

Not to beat a dead horse, but given that about 20 posts in this thread have commented on some fantasy of a Wells-for-Young trade (and some people seem to think it's actually a "rumor" of some sort), let me reiterate ...

This ain't happening, not unless the Jays "throw in" Roy Halladay or make some other equally unlikely over-offer. Young is a fixture in Texas. Nobody, ever, is "untradeable" but it would take a "Jeter and Wang and here's some cash, too" type of offer -- in other words, the offer would need to be the kind of offer the other team would essentially never make. 

Which, of course, ain't happening.

At least it's a reasonable contract.

I realize that Kennedy gave a hometown discount, but 3.33/year isn't much at all.  There's no way Lugo is worth 8.  Perhaps he might realize that now.  If nothing else, this might help keep some skyrocketing costs a little lower.  I'm warming up to offering Lugo a 4/24 deal, with flexibility to go up a bit. 

My early comments remain on Loretta though.  JP - please stay away. 

JP missed his spot on the fan590 at 6:15pm this evening and  had a rep tell the fan that he is entertaining a free agent this evening.  I have a strong feeling he is going to make a move very soon (i.e. tonight) regarding another free agent.  Godfrey was nice enough to become an "emergency fill in" (after some on-air complaining from the shows host).  He said that according to the people he spoke to, Barajas' agent was the one who told his client that there was too much money out there to take the Jays offer.  Mr. Godfrrey went on to say that Bengie's agent told him to do something similar last year and it cost his client $13 million (i.e. missed out on a 3 yr $18 million deal).

I can't quite understand how Barajas' agent could accept an offer and then tell his client to decline it - seems strange.  Maybe it was the new agent that said it was not enough.  I think his advice will really cost Barajas.

"Where I come from, your word means something and your handshake means something," Ricciardi said. "Unfortunately in this case, it didn't. I'll leave it at that. We had more than a handshake."

Good chance it's either Meche or Padilla... And please don't compare Meche with Towers, it's an unfair comparison. Meche can supposedly throw 98 MPH when completely healthy, which he was for the first time this past season (Take that as both a good thing and a bad thing). Towers meanwhile barely throws 90 MPH and just came off a season where his ERA was in the 9's... Meche may not be a star of any sorts, but I got a good feeling that he's much better than Josh Towers.

I really hope the Jays don't sign Gil Meche, unless they somehow manage to sign him to a one-year contract and get a real starting pitcher during next year's offseason.

Meche's numbers last year were pretty much consistant with his career average:  4.65 ERA, 1.44WHIP, 4.01 BB9, 6.35 K9, 1.20 HR9, and he has a poor health record.  Expect the ERA and definitely the already unimpressive HR9 rates to go up at the Roger's Center.  If Meche signs for something like 3/24, it will handicap the Jays for the next three years.  If the payroll remains the same and barring major trades, your team will be the same for quite a while, because the removal of Wells, Koskie, Hinske and Towers off the books next year will probably only cover the raises some players are getting in their contracts, and others will be getting though arbitration.  If they're going to commit to a pitcher for a multi-year contract then they should spend more money and get somebody who's proven, or wait until the deep crop of starting pitchers comes on the market next year.  I will not be happy if they sign Meche.  Not at all.  I'm just having visions of J.P. dumping him on some other small-market team at the trade deadline with the Jays picking up all but $2 million of the $15 million left on his contract. 

In my opinion they should either trade Wells for a starting pitcher and buy an outfielder, or wait until next year to buy a starting pitcher.

Just wondering how many of you would prefer the Jays sign:

Gil Meche http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4105

or

 Jeff Weaver http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4039

If you picked Meche, would your answer change if Weaver could be had for  between $2 to $3 less per yr?

Royce Clayton has become a journeyman -- if he joined the Jays, they'd be his sixth team in the last five years. In his youth with the Giants and Cardinals, he could pick it -- he was a standout defensive shortstop and an aggressive (though not very successful) base-stealer. But as his 30s have progressed, he's lost a step or two -- his RF and FP have been declining to league-average or lower levels for years now, and Defensive Win Shares placed him well-below average among NL shortstops last year. He hits a pretty empty .260 and his speed has eroded.

In short, he's a true stopgap measure -- he could be had for about $1M a season, and I doubt he'd get more than that from the Jays. If JP does indeed have about $11M left to spend, and he wants to either bring back Lilly or sign Meche, then that's going to cost him most of that, so $1M for a shortstop seems about right. I'd love to have Lugo, but at this point, it looks like a pretty simple choice: Lugo or Lilly/Meche. As much as I think that a Lugo-Hill middle-infield combo would do wonders for the entire pitching staff, I can't countenance the thought of, say, Chacin, Marcum and Towers starting 60% of Toronto's games in 2007. Lilly/Clayton or Towers/Lugo? It's not really much of a choice. At least Aaron Hill won't be playing out of position.

The Blue Jays have been interested in Meche as far back as JP's arrival with the team -- his name has come up almost as often as Tony Armas Jr. or Randy Wolf when the subject turned to other teams' pitchers. There are plenty of reasons to stay away from Meche -- the injury history, the wildness, the homer-proneness, the post-All-Star fade, and the inconsistency. But his 2006 stats show a real change: his K rate climbed significantly, but so did his GB/FB ratio -- for the first time, he yielded more grounders than flyouts. Opposing batters' line-drive percentage dropped, indicating they're not getting great swings on him. Like AJ Burnett, the Jays think Meche is a real talent who was rushed to the big leagues, struggled with injuries, and is just now hitting his prime.

Signing Meche would unquestionably be a gamble, just like signing Burnett was. But the Blue Jays have to take these kinds of gambles -- they're simply not in the market for the likes of Zito, Schmidt, and especially Matsuzaka. They can either sign proven league-average types -- a staff full of Cory Lidles and Miguel Batistas -- or potential breakout candidates. JP seems to think that league-average pitchers aren't enough to win the AL East and advance very far in the playoffs; I think he's right. Even Lilly, were he brought back, would be expected to take it up a notch -- improve his focus and start delivering the kinds of results that his stuff (which really is stellar) have always promised. 

JP has been wrong about a number of things in his tenure as GM, but he doesn't usually go wrong evaluating talent, especially the high-priced kind. If he's sold on Meche's ability to break through, that carries a lot of weight. There's a lot of risk here, and if the Jays do sign Meche and he implodes, there'll be no shortage of evidence available with which to hang JP. But overall, I kind of admire his willingness to supply his own rope.

For some reason, I can't shake the fear that Meche is the new Erik Hanson.

We should be so lucky...

Hanson the year before  he came to Toronto: 187 IP, 114 ERA+. Hanson, the 3 years before coming to Toronto: 524 IP, 116 ERA+.
 
Meche, 2006: 187 IP, 97 ERA+. Meche, the past 3 years: 458 IP, 90 ERA+.

how much would it take to pry Bill Hall out of Milwaukee

Jeff Sackman at Hardball Times discusses this very question. Hall would be a huge addition for the Blue Jays, but I'm not sure JP has the horses to offer. The Brewers need good young pitching, and the last time they traded with Toronto, they acquired a  boatload of the Jays' young talent. The best the Jays could offer these days would probably be Lind, League, and Marcum or Janssen, and the Brewers don't really need another outfielder. They can probably find other teams with more major-league ready starters to offer anyway. But it'd be nice to see Hall as a Jay, no question.