I'm going to reserve judgement until the pitching gets sorted out because if this enables JP to get some pitching I'll be okay with it.  However you can color unimpressed with Clayton.  It just seems so unimaginative.  Any old GM can sign a veteran like Clayton, where's the vision.  Oh well, it's not a whole lot of money I guess.  OPS+ of 66 is awful and was just terrible after going to the Reds. 

I'd rather spend the dough on an impact middle infielder than on any of Lilly, Padilla, Meche.  Meche is a disaster waiting to happen for the club who pays him 10 mill a year.  At least Lilly/Padilla have proven they can pitch in tough environments.

The value in this market appears to be at middle infield. 

Sure wish we'd have dealt McGowan intstead of Bush for Overbay  last season...

The prudence of the Frank Thomas signing needs to be re-visited if we only have 90 million to spend this year.  

I don't mind this signing, because I think it means at minimum we have a boring, dependable, shortstop and  Russ Adams will get another chance to be a regular in the big leagues.

I didn't think the Lugo deal was very realistic, lest we forget that Russ is a former first rounder.   Adams had a decent 2004, and I thought his defence was improving hopefully he can forgot 2005 and make a comeback.  I don't think .260/15/60 and average defence is out of the question for Russ Adams, I can't figure out why he seemed so lost last year.  I'd say there is a decent chance Russ could be this years' Alex Rios and I am glad we don't have Lugo, Kennedy or some other expensive-but-low-ceiling player blocking him.

I like this move, and I think as Jays' fans we have to look at Adams rather than Clayton's potential for next year.   JP bought Clayton as insurance.

Since it just about guarantees we'll never have to see an Edgardo Alfonzo in the infield next year, it does make me feel better.  That being said, there's a nonzero chance that Clayton could crater like Alfonzo.

Somewhere out there Russ Adams has to be asking himself what has gone wrong in the past year. If this Clayton signing isn’t an indication Adams is buried in the doghouse, I don’t know what is. Clayton is coming off a season hitting .258/.307/.341 and McDonald is coming off a .223/.271/.308 season. Both players aren’t going to win a Gold Glove and aren’t young either.

I have no problem with Clayton as the utility man, but he’s a complete sinkhole in the batting order as a full time player. I find it extremely hard to believe there wasn’t a better option out there whether it was through free agency or a trade that would still fit within the Jays budget.

I surely hope this signing isn’t a consequence of paying big dollars to Frank Thomas or perhaps Gil Meche. A big thumbs down from my perch.

I don't consider this signing confirmed. 

Can we get two 11:59 PM reprieves from the governor in the same week?

You can't put four middle infielders on a team carrying 12 pitchers, so Adams would be the odd man out if both McDonald and Clayton made the team.

From Rosenthal:

"Clayton no longer is an elite defender, and his weaknesses could be highlighted playing on artificial turf at SkyDome. He still makes the routine plays, but had the third-lowest zone rating among the 15 qualifying National League shortstops last season."

The Thomas signing decreases the need to improve the offense coming from SS.  I understand avoiding Lugo, but why even make the move to Clayton?  His defence is weaker than Mcdonald and his bat is only marginally better.  My guess is that Mcdonald will be the starting SS sooner rather than later.

Perhaps this move is just a PR one?  After talking about improving the middle-infield, maybe they decided that making a nominal move was required for PR if they have concluded that Mcdonald/Adams is the way they wanted to go after losing out on Kennedy?

At least at 1 year/$1.5 million, they can afford to have this signing be a complete flop.

Not to nitpick, but this is the second time this off-season that Rosenthal has mentioned "the hard turf at Skydome;" the first time he commented on the Frank Thomas signing, and how it might affect his ankle. Weird.

Ken Rosenthal is worth reading when he's talking about player movement since he seems to legitimately be in the know. But when he foists his analysis upon the masses... shudder. He's just another generic BBWAAer.

I have no problem with this deal. He will be a stop-gap at best, and gives Russ Adams one last shot at making it.  Russ did hit 314/374/404 at Syracuse last year and may still make it as a serviceable (and cheap) major league shortstop. He's still only 25.

The main reason I support it, however, is the fact that it is a one year deal. JP came in with the mandate of building a team that would compete every year and be sustainable. Signing a one year deal with Clayton not only frees up money this year, it frees up money for next. JP obviously looked around for an SS this off-season and decided none of the candidates were worth the money and the years they were going to get. I would personally rather have Clayton for a year at $1.5M than Alex Gonzalez for 3 years at $18M.

The only thing left is a pitcher. I think the chances are great of getting one of the 'top' guys - here's hoping for Padilla or (gulp) Lilly.

What did the group do on average for the rest of their careers?  261/327/341OPS+77 which fits nicely with Clayton's career line of 258/313/368 OPS+ 76

That's totally unfair, though.  Those guys played in a lesser offensive era, as their average OPS+ of 88 shows.  They might've done that, but if the comps were based on adjusted stats, Clayton's comps would look worse, and so would their post age 36 lines.

If the Jays are able to sign both Lilly and Meche as a result of making this deal, will some of you like this deal then?

I personally think it's fine. It allows Hill to play a position where he plays a great, gold-glove calibur defense, and also allows them to target the 2 starting pitchers they want. Clayton is also a fairly large offensive upgrade on John McDonald, whether you want to admit it or not. He would obviously be more effective agaisnt only lefties, but just like last year with Bengie Molina, that doesn't appear to be an option, so why worry about it? And judging by the other SS signings so far...this deal is actually a bargain. Counsell, a comparable player to Clayton, signed today for a 2 year/6M deal. And Cora recently signed a 2 year/4M deal with the Red Sox, just to be their backup. It's seriously not as bad a deal as some of you are making it out to be. I'm fine with it. The Jays Opening Day lineup will still be far better than it was last year.

I don't mean to put a downer on this "giddy" scenario, but I don't think the Cubs or the Mets (or LAD or SF for that matter) are going to make it that easy for JP to sign both Meche and Lilly.  Once JP signs one, he better have the other on the other line because the remaining FA will have his price increase again (if given a choice who should JP sign first?). 

I also want to say to all those Meche doubters that as far as I know, no one here is paid to be a scout of proffessional ball.  Those that are paid obviously see something in Meche (i.e. Cubs and Yankees).  Otherwise he would not have so many suitors.

     Both the Globe and the Star today are confirming that JP is striving to sign BOTH of Lilly and Meche -- not just one of the two.  There's no guarantee it will happen -- JP admits to the Star that signing both of them is an "extreme wish" -- but JP wouldn't be confirming this target unless he is pretty certain that his budget will allow him to spend at least $17-million or $18-million on free-agent pitchers, or maybe even more, and that's good news.   So I see two scenarios here:

    1) he signs both Lilly and Meche, which would be ideal.  There might be questions about Meche, but he would work well in the 4th spot in the rotation, and Chacin would be good in the 5th spot.   Marcum becomes the spot starter in the bullpen, which is a good slot for him.  This also makes the Royce Clayton signing look a bit better.

    2) he signs Lilly or Meche but not both.  This would still leave him with $7-million or $8-million to spend on another pitcher, who might not be ideal but might still be an adequate 4th starter.  Padilla?  Armas?  Mulder?  (Maybe a good poll question.)

    Anyway, the good news here is that JP has more money for pitching than we first realized.  He couldn't possibly be targeting both Lilly and Meche unless he was sure of having a good chunk of change.

I can certainly see Adams contributing next year, but I can't see him playing SS again on a regular basis.  He's showed that his arm is just too weak and inaccurate for that position.  If he hits .325 / .375 in AAA with good defense at 2B, maybe he comes up to play 2B later in the year with Hill shifting to SS, and Clayton becoming a utility guy.  Otherwise the Jays may have to make a trade for a SS prospect.

As for signing starting pitching, I know a lot of people want to see the Jays win this year, but what about the next few years as well?  Why on earth would a smart GM overpay and handcuff the future budget to lock up one or two mediocre pitchers because starting pitching happens to be in short supply this year.  It doesn't make sense to me and if it happens, J.P. will have been incredibly short-sighted in my opinion.  Go for Lilly and Lilly alone, and if you can't get him, trade Wells for a starting pitcher, or wait until next year and take your pick:  Affeldt, Buerhle, D. Davis, R. Johnson, Rusch, Rogers, Benson, Byrd, Carpenter, Clement, Colon, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Jennings, Leiber, Miller, Pineiro, Schilling, Silva, Smoltz, Westbrook, Wright, C. Zambrano, V. Zambrano, among others.  Please don't sign Gil Meche J.P., unless it's somehow a one-year 'stop-gap' measure.

Starting the season with Royce Clayton as the starting shortstop would be a choice made not out of necessity or even out of strong market pressure, but rather one made as a result of the opinion that two veteran starting pitchers was a more important addition to the club than a starting shortstop. 

Sorry, I still don't see how signing a terrible player who might not be better than the terrible in house, cheaper options, leads to this conclusion. If you want to sign Lilly and Meche, which apparently the Jays do, then why get a below average fielder and awful hitter for short? Just don't sign anyone at shortstop until the pitching is sorted out, then see what's left and either sign or trade for a SS. At this point, Clayton is the "spring training invite" type, not the "sign for 1.5 million" type.  He's easily replaceable, or should be for a competent GM.

I think (and hope) what this finally says is "Aaron Hill, you are our starting 2nd baseman.  We will not be moving you between shortstop and 2nd base anymore.  You have job security, and we will not be messing around with your head, glove and footwork anymore."

Which would be smart.  Hill is developing quite nicely, and should turn into a fine ballplayer (and I think at least an above-average 2nd baseman, with probably an All-Star game or two). 

I can't shake the feeling that JP is probably going to pull off at least 1 trade (ala Glaus or O-Bay last year) that nobody will see coming and will shock everyone.  Did anyone really see Overbay and/or Glaus coming? (Maybe somebody did, but I know I was sure as heck shocked).  It looks like the lineup is more or less settled, although the bench could use some serious work (and maybe that's where a minor trade comes in).  But I wouldn't be surprised if something comes out of left-field (using the expression, not suggested Johnson be traded - although I wouldn't put that past JP either).

According to J.P., McDonald will serve as the backup infielder, and Russ Adams will start the year at AAA.

I'm not as down on the Clayton signing as some, but having both Clayton and McDonald on the roster is a pretty bad idea.

Signing both of them would allow the Jays to shop pitching, which would be interesting.

I thought about this last night, struggling as I was to fit these developments into my normally optimistic view of the team's chances. Assuming a Halladay-Burnett-Lilly-Meche rotation (a major assumption), you'd have a number of reasonable candidates for the #5 spot: Chacin, Marcum, Janssen and (yes) Towers (I think of Taubenheim, Rosario and McGowan as bullpen contributors at best for 2007). While that would give the Skychiefs one hell of a rotation early in the year, it would also give the Jays an uncommon number of young, affordable, league-tested starters from which to deal, either in spring training or at the trading deadline.

It's all speculation, obviously, but I find myself coming back to Bill Hall -- the Brewers appear intent on signing enough players to render him redundant, and Milwaukee needs pitching to compete in a wide-open NL Central. If the Jays are very comfortable with their 1-4 rotation slots, they could pull the trigger on a major trade from their young pitching surplus. Assuming no injuries and the acquisition of a reliable fourth outfielder, shortstop is really the only position where the Jays can upgrade themselves. And if they're serious about playing Royce Clayton, then they really need to upgrade themselves.

This all assumes a lot -- the odds of Toronto bagging Lilly and Meche both are very low. But add me to the chorus of Bauxites who believe that if the Jays had a four-year, $40 million contract to give to either Julio Lugo or Gil Meche, it should have gone to Lugo. I can only conclude that JP, having watched Chacin, Marcum, Janssen, Towers, Taubenheim and Downs start 72 games(!) last year with a collective ERA in the high 5.00s, swore to himself, "Never again." I can sympathize, but it would be a mistake to assume that all those guys will be as bad in '07 as they were in '06. Meche may be a bridge too far.

McDonald will serve as the backup infielder, and Russ Adams will start the year at AAA.

Sigh.

Alex Gonzalez had a .299 OBP last season and 77 OPS+, yet people were suggesting the Jays sign him to a long-term deal. Granted, he's a better defensive player than Clayton, but most of the crying is due to Clayton's bat, and I think people need to understand that short-stop is not a buyer's market this year (or most years).

This deal keeps Hill at 2B and gives the team leverage. Why? Well, now if Adams comes into ST and beats the crap out of the ball, then Clayton is not someone who has to be the starting infielder. He's capable of playing both roles (starter or utility) and he doesn't come with the long-term contract that would necessitate starting (like Kennedy or Loretta, etc, would).

In 2003, Bordick was 37 and coming off two seasons where he hit .249/.314/.397 and .232/.302/.365 respectively. He ended up hitting .274/.340/.382 with Toronto. Chris Gomez had similar mediocrity in his offensive numbers, but came in and hit .282/.337/.346 (which is at the very least decent). Maybe coming to Toronto will help Clayton's offense as well, who knows.

At the very least, the Jays have depth now. If Johnson can't hit RHP next season, then Lind is just a bus ride away. If Clayton can't cut it, then Adams is there. Contending teams need veteran players to at least have an idea of what they are getting.

Funny you mention Chris Gomez, I was actually thinking about him in a similar stop-gap capacity (which is all Clayton is).

I hadn't realized that the Jays were forced to give 72 starts to those guys.  That's scary (and presumably what is driving JP).  At the same time, you have to expect there to be some injuries, and if we get both Lilly and Meche that gives us both depth and a very solid 1-4.  I can't see what is possibly wrong with that (see Tigers, Detroit - 2006, White Sox, Chicago - 2005).

At the same time, I just don't get the feeling we're going to get Lilly.  Not sure why, but I just have this feeling that he's playing TO and JP.  I'd like to be wrong, as he's my favourite of the options out there, but I just don't feel good about that.

Far be it from me to base opinions on feelings, but unfortunately there aren't any stats to use to judge Lilly's head (which always struck me as slightly different than the rest of ours anyways).  And I do worry about Ted's focus in a non-contract year.

Not terribly enthused about Meche, but all I'll say is that if we start the year with Chacin as our number 3, you can forget the playoffs.  Breakout seasons by young pitchers (McGowan, Janssen, Marcum, etc.) is what will put us over the top, not what you can rely on to make us competitive.

the underlying assumption seems to be that money spent on veteran starting pitching is more important than money spent on a shortstop

I see what you are saying, I think the terribleness of the signing in my head has made it hard to think straight...as is pointed out in the comments on the current poll, Clayton may soon have a legitimate claim to being the WORST HITTER IN ML HISTORY (career). Sorry, didn't mean to yell, but damn, when Neifi Perez may be a better choice, with better defense at least......(shakes head in disgust).

Soon I will enter the rationalization/acceptance phase, but for now I may enter the denial stage. The Jays didn't just sign Royce Clayton, it's all a terrifying dream. And Clayton is a good player, otherwise 10 different teams wouldn't have given him a chance, right?

 I don't think there's any way Adams is as bad as he looked in 2006. Talk of a wasted draft pick ignores the fact that even Baseball America said that Adams looked like a perfectly good leadoff hitter at the time he was drafted. There's a good likelihood he can bounce back to become a decent middle infielder.

  Of course, the one criticism that seems to have been validated is that he can't stay at short. But if Aaron Hill is the Jays' second baseman, where does Adams play? Left field? Or maybe the Jays will give him one more kick at the can at short; mediocre defence, backed up by Clayton or McDonald, might be acceptable if he can find out what happened to his swing.

bad defence

Saying Clayton is "bad" defensively overstates the case.  He makes all the routine plays, and Adams can't do that.  As far as his range goes, he's a reverse Jeter; very weak in the hole but very good up the middle.  (He's actually a reverse Jeter in many ways when you think about it.)

Count me among those who don't think this signing is very important.  It gives Adams another year to break through (which the signing of Lugo or Gonzalez would forever preclude) and shortstop can be upgraded mid-season if pennant race crowds are streaming into the RC.

Funny you mention Chris Gomez, I was actually thinking about him in a similar stop-gap capacity (which is all Clayton is).

Yeah, the HAMMER OF THOR worked out very well when he was here, and when he came in he was a worse performer than Clayton.

Except when their back has been completely against the wall, the Jays under Ricciardi have done pretty well at coaxing good performances out of most of their "stopgap" type position players.  Not just Gomez and Bordick, but also McDonald, Zaun, Menechino, Johnson, Myers, Wilson... some didn't work out well (Berg, Clark, Kevin Cash who was as much stopgap as prospect) but in general the record of the guys brought in and shoved in to plug a hole has been excellent as such players go.

It's funny how things turn out. What do the Jays need on the bench? Someone who can play 1B, 3B and corner OF and preferably be a LHB with some pop. Sound like anyone that was sent packing to the Red Sox last year?

I'm not second-guessing getting rid of Hinske, it's just funny what a terrific fit he would be for this particular team.

It gives Adams another year to break through

While I agree that Adams may have something in the tank, and might be able to turn into a major leaguer, his fit on this team isn't great. Hill sure seems like a second baseman and not a shortstop, and the Clayton signing appears to suggest that the team sees things this way as well. The trouble is, I can only envision Adams playing second base, not shortstop. The Jays have nowhere to play him to see if he can develop, unless they're prepared to keep yanking Hill around. For the sake of Hill's development, I hope they can lock him in at second base and just leave him there. Adams' upside isn't worth tampering with Hill's development.

Adams will have to end up on a team and serve as their plan B second baseman, and hope to luck into some playing time to allow him to develop. I don't believe the Jays are that team.

I'd much rather see a Schmidt or Zito than both Meche or Lilly.

Me too, and it would be a good use of the dollars. Unfortunately, I don't think either player is seriously considering the Jays as a destination. Schmidt reportedly has said he doesn't want to play on the east coast (I don't know if Toronto qualifies), and Scott Boras says Zito has a list of eight teams for which he'd play, and I haven't heard that the Jays are one of them. For my money, Zito ends up a Met and Schmidt goes to Texas, or maybe Seattle.

I look a the Jays and I seem a team very deep in cheap, internal candidates who can deliver a 5.00 ERA (Chacin, Marcum, Janssen, perhaps even Towers). The back of the rotation is taken care of, and taken care of cheaply.

How does the upgrade from one of the aforementioned $300K types to an $8-10M Meche make any sense? That's a lot of change to spend on someone who may look better than the aforementioned lot, but still not necessarily perform any better.

It's obviously a moot point now, but throwing that Meche money at Lugo would have nicely resolved the middle infield for the next few years. I don't see how Meche + Clayton > Marcum + Lugo.

It's funny how things turn out. What do the Jays need on the bench? Someone who can play 1B, 3B and corner OF and preferably be a LHB with some pop.

He can't get you the third base defence, but Matt Stairs gets pretty close to that description.

"It's obviously a moot point now, but throwing that Meche money at Lugo would have nicely resolved the middle infield for the next few years. I don't see how Meche + Clayton > Marcum + Lugo"

I'm not sure why the love affair with Meche exists to begin with. Last year was his best year and he still went under 200 IP with a WHIP of 1.43 in a pitcher's park. I hate the idea of spending anywhere near $10 million a season on a mediocre pitcher. 4/40 is too much for Lugo, but that would still be better spent if Meche indeed gets that kind of cash.

         ERA   W  L   G GS CG  IP    H   R   ER  HR  BB  SO  AVG
Lilly   4.92  15 20  45 45  1 247.0 244 141 135  40 115 189 .253
Zito    3.77  21 15  51 51  0 325.2 303 150 136  34 146 251 .249