5'1" ? damn, that's short.....

I doubt it's true though.  If it was, he would be an awesome leadoff hitter with his ability to take walks.

Assuming Clayton is the starting SS, Stairs is the backup 1B/DH and Phillips is the backup C, that leaves only two spots on the 25-man roster.  Only two of MacDonald, Smith, Hattig and Olmedo will start the year with the Jays, and yet the Jays need a backup at 3B, middle IF, and a 4th outfielder, though in a crunch I guess Stairs could play LF.

So who's it going to be?  I'm really starting to understand why some here have suggested Russ Adams should learn to play in the OF.  I don't like any of the backup options if Glaus goes down at 3B, the Jays don't have a real 4th outfielder, and it seems to me that they have three backup middle infielders.  We'd better hope that there are no injuries this year.

Leigh, your wish for eleven pitchers is unlikely, when did the Jays last start a season with eleven pitchers?  Adams gets bumped from your bench.

A player who is out of options has to pass through waivers to get to the minors.  Roberts can be claimed by any other team now that he has been designated for assignment. 

Ron:

Technically every minor leaguer is a prospect of some kind.  However if we ask who has a good chance to be a major league regular then Pickering, Quiroz and John-Ford Griffin all miss the mark.

Sergio Santos has to show he can hit AAA pitching, he has the tools but hasn't been able to hit.  Dustin McGowan has the best chance of the prospects to start for the Jays next season but he has to show he can command his pitches.  Shaun Marcum has pitched well for the Jays, and is definitely a prospect, but I see JP putting him in the Dave Bush "cannot win in the AL East" category and maybe trading him.  Hattig is probably a major league .250 hitter and is back to AAA.  David Purcey has to show he can command his pitches to AAA hitters while Josh Banks will head back to AAA and try to develop a ground ball pitch.

"the Jays don't have a real 4th outfielder

Reed Johnson is the fourth OF, right?"

As of right now, Johnson will play everyday in LF. The Jays would be best off if Lind is playing everyday in AAA rather than getting one start a week in the majors. When Thomas gets hurt, he can be called up. I still would not be at all surprised if the Jays trade Rios or even Lind to get a starter.

"I really don't get this move to be honest. Maybe this is simply an attempt to spur some competition in spring training... but it does not bode well for Santos."

A complete depth move. Olmedo will compete for a utility role. He played 2B, SS, 3B, and RF last year (albeit very little at each) so maybe they like his flexibility.

A quick word on Lind.

No matter what he does in Spring, short of something other-worldly, he will start in AAA. The reason is he has a month of MLB time, if he does not come up till Mid-May then we own him for 07 AND six years thereafter. IF he is up all year we own him for one less year. No matter how good he is in his 23/24 old year I guarantee he will be worth much more in his 29/30 age year. The Jays are NOT going to give that whole year up for April and 2 weeks in May of his 23/24 old year.

I believe Accardo still has options and he hasn't really spent that much time pitching in the minors (like Marcum and Janssen drafted as an INF (?) in college). I wouldn't be surprised to see him sent down for some fine tuning as League was.

Amaedo is playing solidly in the VWL and his defense, speed and some OF experience seems to give him a slight edge on Macdonald, Smith (although he could be shagging flies in Duneden too) and Adams.

I read in Saturday's Globe where Billy Koch claims he has Morgellons disease. Morgellons sufferers say they are "plagued by constant itching, burning and crawling sensations, open sores that won't heal and strange "fibres" (black, white, blue and red) erupting from their skin."

Sorry I can't post a link to the article. I need to be a paying member of their site which I am not.

Things get stranger for Billy Koch.

"PECOTA disagrees with you.  Personally, if he's the best option then I hope that he is up immedately.  If you think you are going to contend, no reason to have a contributor in the minors hoping to save his rights for 2013.  You want to lose a playoff spot by two games when someone could have contributed but you buried them in the minors to save on service time?"

Jim, with all due respect to PECOTA, I disagree. Will delaying Lind's arrival 6 weeks end our chances in 07? Will delaying Lind's arrival 6 weeks be a risk worth taking bearing in mind it will save us at least $12 to $16 MILLION in the year he is 29/30, if he turns into the star we think he will? If he's not that good then it's a moot point. Paying a multi-million dollar penalty for rushing a guy over a lousy 6 weeks seems to grate at the Scottish part of my soul, and I'm not even Scottish.

However, If Johnson was traded, or if Wells had been, then I would have brought him up, needs must.

    Ohka's career ERA looks very good.  Do we have any idea why the Brewers refused to offer him arbitration, especially with the shortage of good pitchers in the league?   Was it just the injuries?  But he seemed to have good velocity when he returned from his injury last July, according to the article posted above.

"Ohka's career ERA looks very good.  Do we have any idea why the Brewers refused to offer him arbitration, especially with the shortage of good pitchers in the league?"

I like Ohka as a cheap back of the rotation risk. He is however, incredibly injury-prone now and his stuff, never the best, has lost some of its bite. Also, his K/BB ratio has been getting worse every year. If they have to give him a 2 year deal with guaranteed money, I probably wouldn't do it

I dont' see how Johnson would get 500 at-bats platooning LF at all, which is what JP and Gibby are looking for this year - especially with Stairs coming off the bench.

There's next to zero chance that Lind breaks camp with the club. Stairs will DH when Thomas has a day off. Lind may turn out to be an everyday major-leaguer, but he's still very raw - particularly his footwork and glove (which go along with a less than average arm).

I can't for the life of me understand why someone would "want" Jannsen and Towers in the lineup over Chacin - two soft throwing righties with meatball fastballs over a crafty lefty who gives a different look, and has good cutting movement on his fastball - like I'm trying to think of the logic here but it totaly escapes me.

First of all, regarding Chacin, I also think he'll get bombed again this year.  The more he's seen, the more he's hit.  Barring any trades, by mid-summer I envision a rotation including Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum and one of either Thomson, Towers, Ramirez, Janssen, or maybe R. Romero.  I have no faith in Chacin.  His stuff is marginal and his peripherals are weak.  Chacin's success was dependent on his cutter, which is also the pitch that caused his elbow injury.  He'll either throw the cutter and get hurt, or he won't throw the cutter and he'll get demolished.  Either way I'm not banking on Chacin producing much better than a 5.50 ERA.

On a completely seperate note, Rotoworld's Matthew Pouliot has the Jays and the rest of the AL East's Top 10 Prospects list up on the main MLB page.

First of all, regarding Chacin, I also think he'll get bombed again this year.  The more he's seen, the more he's hit.

 I don't think the numbers back that up. He started four games against Boston in 2006, and came away with a 3.43 ERA, giving up 3, 2, 0, and 3 runs. If they were figuring him out, the didn't show it very well.  In 2005, he made multiple starts against Baltimore, Seattle, and Tampa with good results, while in similar explosure the Red Sox and Yankees beat him up. In September, he bounced back with four good starts in five tries. It's true that he gets less effective as the game goes on, but that can be attributed to his tendency to throw a lot of pitches.

 His comps at BB-ref include Kirk Rueter, Brett Tomko, and Donovan Osborne - guys who weren't spectacular by any stretch, but were reliable, average-ish pitchers, the sort most teams need unless they've got five Cy-Young candidates (which the Jays certainly don't) Maybe he won't survive, but I don't think you can assume he won't, and assuming that guys like Towers and Thomson will be better seems spectacularly optimistic. Chacin's certainly earned the right to a starting slot until he proves he can't handle it.

 He doesn't need to be signed to a long-term contract or anything, but he's earned the right to a spot in the rotation until he proves he can't handle it, or until someone much better comes along.

I hope I'm wrong and Chacin is a solid #3 starter.  Mike Green has a good argument but one point that I made that was not addressed was the Catch-22 regarding Chacin's cutter.  Scouts credit the development of his cutter as being the catalyst for his breakout year during his 4th AA season.  The doctors also credit the cutter as being the cause of his injury in 2006.  I worry that if he throws his cutter consistently he'll end up on the DL, and if he doesn't throw it he'll get hit.

Mylegacy,

The Jays are NOT going to give that whole year up for April and 2 weeks in May of his 23/24 old year.

You may not have heard, but games played in April and early May actually do count in the standings...

Sorry for the sarcasm, but geez, at some point you have to stop worrying about what is going to happen six bloody seasons from now, and put together the best roster from what you have available in an attempt to actually win. I believe that the Jays are at this point now. The best roster they could put together includes Lind, for the whole year, so that is what should happen. That said, I have absolutely no faith that Lind actually will start the year in the majors...

Greenfrog,

I agree that Johnson should be starting in LF. Lind has superb potential but looked a little overmatched at times in September (despite his strong numbers).

He can look however he wants as long as he's putting up that .322 EqA.

Scouts credit the development of his cutter as being the catalyst for his breakout year during his 4th AA season.  The doctors also credit the cutter as being the cause of his injury in 2006.  I worry that if he throws his cutter consistently he'll end up on the DL, and if he doesn't throw it he'll get hit.

Then that would be a very good reason to bump him from the starting rotation. But maybe the Jays can minimize his workload and reduce some of the stress on his elbow. Even if Chacin is, at best, a 180-innings-a-year pitcher with an around-average ERA, that still has value.

 I don't think he's a sure thing to succeed, but I have to take issue with the idea that he's destined to fail. Maybe he won't work out, and if another team offered a good deal for him, I'd certainly take it. But for now, he has had MLB success, he has a reasonable chance of more, and he's still going to be cheap for another couple of years. Assuming he's going to fall apart and tossing him away seems like a huge waste.

Greenfrog,

You're right; one can't necessarily predict Lind to continue what he was doing in September from such a small sample. However, I think he did enough to show that he is one of the four best OF we have available, so I believe he should be on the ML club. If it turns out that Johnson is better to start off with, then do that; that can be figured out in ST. My point is that every decision about this club at this point should be made with the mentality of winning NOW, which means that Lind should be at least the 4th OF. Of course, the counter-argument is that spending to much time on the bench could hinder his development, but I don't buy that at all.