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It's a battle of 8-7 teams in Baltimore. Burnett, Towers and Chacin will carry the Jays' torch this weekend. The Jays should be favored to win the last two games, bruises and all, but Friday is a different story. Burnett, who really could use a win, runs into a certain overpowering righty who's only handed out 5 walks in his first three starts. Elsewhere, the Jays also get to contend with a left-leaning lineup and a revamped bullpen full of imported veterans and inexpensive pleasant surprises. And Alberto Castillo!

On to the Advance Scout.


Daniel Cabrera: Groan. Brace yourselves for the first of six Cabrera masterpieces against the Jays. He's still basically the same pitcher: power fastball, mid-80s humpless curveball, fall behind 0-2 and you might as well start heading back to the dugout. However, he grew a couple of inches during the offseason, and he also seems to be pitching directly over the top more than in the past. This might sacrifice a bit of velocity, but his fastball has vicious, Daisuke-ish movement that wasn't really there last year. He's also pitching to contact more, and thus far that has resulted in a better-than-league-average walk rate (impressive for a guy who walked 15.7% of hitters last year) and even more ground balls than usual. Sam Perlozzo has no qualms about running Cabrera's pitch counts into the stratosphere despite the fact that the man's only 25 and he might just have the best stuff of any non-Venezuelan pitcher in the majors. Cabrera threw 232 pitches in his first two starts of the year.

Adam Loewen: Similar to Erik Bedard: lefty groundball pitcher who runs deep counts and uses a slider as his out pitch. Throws his fastballs around 89-92 but regularly puts them in hitters' rearview mirrors regardless. Like Bedard, Loewen also throws a curve once in a while to keep hitters off the slider. He's not off to a great start this year - he battled blisters and only lasted 3.2 innings in Tampa Bay in his last start, and he's given up more walks than strikeouts.

Steve Trachsel:
The slowest of the slow comes at hitters with with a curve, lots of changeups and a jarringly slow splitter. He throws in the highish 80s with his fastball. Don't expect him to come out throwing fastballs - he'll usually lead with the slow stuff to set up fastballs later.

Alberto Castillo:
Musically gifted old friend now comprises the righty half of the Orioles' light-hitting catcher platoon while Ramon Hernandez rehabs. Castillo has become a very, very patient hitter. He runs deep counts and will draw a respectable number of walks. The flip side is that given 600 PA, at this rate, he'd lead the league in strikeouts. Hernandez took batting practice this week and will return to the O's lineup next week at the latest. There's an outside chance they activate him this weekend.

Brian Roberts: Has hit the ground running. Tuesday night, he swiped second and third off Casey Fossum for his third and fourth steals of the year.

John Parrish: A TJ success story who didn't pitch an inning in 2006. The Orioles decided not to non-tender him this winter, and the early returns on that decision have been spectacular. The word is that Parrish has quieted his hyperactive delivery, which has improved his command of everything. Parrish has an outstanding strikeout rate and will almost certainly start climbing the leverage ladder. He's unpredictable. He throws a 90-mph fastball and a hard slider around 85, as well as a changeup. Parrish opened his career by whiffing Chuck Knoblauch, Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams in succession.

Jamie Walker: The first-string LOOGY. He throws fastballs, sliders and changes and doesn't give up many walks. Given that John Halama and Tim Byrdak were the Orioles' most accomplished lefty killers last year, Walker was the one free-agent bullpen signing I thought was defensible.

Chris Ray: Fireballing closer who has one of the least fluid windups you'll ever see, which helps him hide the ball better than most. Nobody has scored off him by any means other than an A-Rod grand slam. He's added a splitter to his arsenal as a wrinkle, but he still leans primarily on his fastball and slider and appears to love to finish hitters with the high heater.

Chris Gomez: Hit a game-winning slam against the Royals on Saturday. So, uh, which one of you scumbags gave an O's fan his cell phone number?

Chad Bradford: The submarine artist gets to take another shot at pitching in the AL East without getting shelled. I'm skeptical. However, he has added a deadly weapon to his game this year that should help him elevate his game to a whole new level: a 'stache...

Kevin Millar: The Crown Idiot is at the heart of a revolution in clubhouse chemistry in Baltimore. Two years removed from the Tejada-Sosa-Palmeiro soap opera, the O's claim to have put an emphasis on bringing in character guys. Accordingly, they are once again a tight group that hang out in the clubhouse after games and go gallivanting on Spring Break with 18-year-old college freshmen. Says Jay Gibbons of the clique-free clubhouse: "We don't discriminate. Our crew is everybody."

Jay Payton: Could the Jays use Jay Payton right now or what? He's finally recovered from the hamstring injury that hamstrung him in spring training, and is expected to replace Jon Knott on the Orioles' 25-man roster today. Since Millar is on a hot streak offensively, Payton isn't likely to force his way into the lineup immediately, but he'll definitely start Sunday.

D Fence: The Orioles' pitching staff features a large number of groundball pitchers, most prominently Cabrera, Bedard and Loewen. Unfortunately for them, they're saddled with a sub-par infield defense, according to the 2006 PMRs.

The Credit Section: Batted-ball and Leverage Index data are available at Fangraphs. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks respectively as a percentage of plate appearances. Everything else, most notably the AL average statistics, is available at The Hardball Times. The "Rest" column for relievers is basically self explanatory: the number on the left of the forward slash is the number of days off the pitcher has had, while the number on the right is the number of pitches the pitcher threw in his last outing.


Advance Scout: Orioles, April 20-22 | 76 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
braden - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#166258) #

This series frightens me to no end.  I fully expect Cabrera to throw a two-hitter with twelve K's and set the tone for the weekend.  I know Bad Cabrera will still show up every so often but I have no doubt it won't be against the Jays.

Let's hope that jinxes it.

Barry Bonnell - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#166259) #
Chris Ray has given up 4 earned runs this year.  Does surrendering 1 run mean only inherited runners?
Mike Green - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#166260) #
The PMR data is interesting.  Tejada/Roberts is actually a pretty good DP combination, and Mora's range is just a little below average, but he can't seem to handle bunts. This may be of use to the bottom of the Jay order.
Alex Obal - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#166261) #
Does surrendering 1 run mean only inherited runners?

It means runners driven in by A-Rod are entirely forgivable and don't count. Thanks for the catch.
FanfromTheIsland - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#166262) #
Umm, Alex O, I always wonder where you get the pictures for your Advance Scouts.
Alex Obal - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#166266) #
Same guy who does these pictures. He's pretty good.
FanfromTheIsland - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#166273) #

I thought so.... anyway, thanks.

Mylegacy - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#166275) #

Listen up pilgrims...

Janssen: 1 save 1 save opportunity; Marcum: 1 save - 2 save opportunities; Frasor 1 save - 2 save opportunities; Ryan 3 saves -  5 save opportunities.

6 saves in 10 save opportunities... 4 blown saves...

Our 8 - 7 record would be 12 - 3 without any blown saves. Would someone get their mother to kiss Ryan's elbow booboo better...Please!

VBF - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#166277) #
This team is set to break out.

The heart of the order is going to get hot. McDonald and Smith might come back to reality, but that won't offset Thomas/Wells/Overbay/Glaus getting back or getting hot. The bullpen is going to get better. Of course, the downside could be Towers and Chacin having a bad stretch, and it's certainly possible. And if they don't, this could be fun.



actionjackson - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#166279) #
Nice try Mylegacy, but you're trying to steal one for the home side. Remember that ugly (shudder! ick! ptui!) 10-7 loss to Detroit last Saturday. Frasor picked up his blown save in the 8th, allowing the Tigers a run to tie it 6-6. Overbay temporarily rescued him with a heroic bottom of the 8th inning solo shot and then well poor injured B.J. did his thing. 2 blown saves in 1 loss. Therefore, they might only be 11-4, had all gone smoothly, not 12-3. I hate to burst your bubble man, because you are the most optimistic, positive poster in these parts, but there you go. The only limit to the amount of blown saves there can be in one game is the amount of pitchers that blow them. That's why it's sort of a meaningless stat, unless you're talking about closers.
braden - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#166282) #
Cabrera seems to be getting a pretty big zone tonight. A few high strikes have been called and we're only in the second. Doesn't bode well.
Ron - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#166284) #
Why in the world is Wells getting the day off when Glaus is injured and the Jays havent' been able score runs the past couple of games? Why is Stairs starting in RF? I have a feeling Gibby is going with the numbers since Stairs has good numbers vs. Cabrera.


AWeb - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#166285) #
Since Burnett usually throws just the 96mph fastball and the 84mph curve, what is that 90mph pitch he's throwing? The announcers have been calling it a changeup, but since I've seen three of them clocked from 89-91 so far, which seems way too hard to be called a chanegup. It's also a glimpse into the seemingly endless untapped potential of Burnett, since the pitch seems to move an insane amount for that speed. For a 30-year-old guy, it's getting late in the day to keep playing the "if only" game with him, but if only he could throw that pitch in the strike zone...
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#166286) #

That's why it's sort of a meaningless stat, unless you're talking about closers.

Exactly. Marcum's blown save, when he gave up the two-run shot to Ramirez, was in the 8th inning. A healthy Ryan would not have been pitching then (though I guess you could argue that a healthy Ryan might have meant that Frasor would have pitched in the 8th rather than Marcum).

Non-closers most often get saddled with "blown" saves when they weren't even brought in to get a save in the first place. In fact, they are often placed in situations where they are more likely to "blow" a save than a closer, i.e., with men on base. It's much tougher to blow save with a 2- or 3-run lead in the 9th and nobody on.

Mylegacy, I'm a little disappointed in you. Surely you could have conjured a scenario whereby the Jays should be 16 and minus one and not the more pessimistic 12-3.

Noah - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#166289) #
man A-rod's homered twice today against the Red Sox.  Is this guy on a roll or what?   Here's hoping he cools down before facing our boys next week.

tstaddon - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#166290) #
Hahaha -- the Sportsnet cameras clearly caught Burnett dropping the f-bomb on some Baltimore fan at the end of the 7th inning. I can get behind that -- keep up the intensity, AJ!
Rob - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#166291) #
Unfortunately for them, they're saddled with a sub-par infield defense, according to the 2006 PMRs.

Not sure if that accounted for the go-ahead single in the 7th, but Perlozzo is glad that's all Wells did. Way to find yourself with a mediocre lefty on the mound against Vernon Wells, Sam.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#166292) #

That's pretty weak managing. What, he's pinch-hitting for Stairs against a lefty with men on base? D'oh. Didn't see that one coming. I don't see him lasting the season.

As for Burnett's "intensity", I'd rather he paid more attention to getting out banjo hitters like Bako than worrying about what fans are yelling at him.

Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#166295) #
what is that 90mph pitch he's throwing?

Yup, that's his changeup. He could stand to take just a little bit more off it it....
VBF - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#166296) #
The 4-2 lead is the most dangerous lead in baseball.
Rob - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#166297) #
I'd rather he paid more attention to getting out banjo hitters like Bako than worrying about what fans are yelling at him.

I don't think he was yelling at a fan. Umpire, probably. Based on how Gibbons kept jawing from the dugout, that's my guess.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#166298) #
Jamie Campbell said there was a bunch of Burnett supporters behind the Jays' dugout (his wife is from Baltimore). I wonder if maybe his wife had been voicing her displeasure over him walking Bako after starting him off 0 and 2.
jeff mcl - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#166299) #
Yes, the naked eye deceives.  But Marcum does not look like a setup man, he doesn't pitch like a setup man, and he doesn't perform like a setup man; he's a 5th starter in training.  Accardo, who might well finish the year setting up for BJ, should probably be getting these innings.  I only mention it because it's a second blown save in 2 days from one of the manager's favourites.
VBF - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#166300) #
Thanks again, Gibbons.
jeff mcl - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#166301) #
Oh wait, there's a late inning reliever worse than Marcum.
robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#166302) #
After watching this game, I challenge anyone to make a rational case for the '07 Blue Jays being a legitimate pennant contender.
Mike Green - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#166303) #
Sometimes it's hard to advocate for a young pitcher, but I'm sticking with Marcum.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#166304) #

And, from a distant corner, a small voice is heard emanating from the darkness. What about me coach, what about me?

I'm thinking that I'd rather have taken my chances with Downs in the 9th than Zambrano.

Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#166305) #
I would just like to invoke Earl Weaver's Eighth Law...
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#166306) #
It could be worse. We could be stuck with Mariano Rivera.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#166307) #

I would just like to invoke Earl Weaver's Eighth Law...

Don't covet thy neighbour's middle relievers?

robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#166308) #
Who wants to bet me Rivera finishes the season with an ERA 2.70 or less? These are just hiccups.
greenfrog - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#166309) #
Agreed. Zambrano may contribute this year, but he needs to pitch a middle reliever for a while until he proves he can be effective in higher-leverage situations.

Mike Green - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#166310) #
When is Rodriguez due up in the top of the ninth again?
Joanna - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#166311) #

Watching Corey Patterson punch  a single into the outfield after being struck out the previous pitch was really gross.  This ump is on the list of umps I've made note of.  O'NAN!!!

 Hahaha -- the Sportsnet cameras clearly caught Burnett dropping the f-bomb on some Baltimore fan at the end of the 7th inning. I can get behind that -- keep up the intensity, AJ!

I thought he dropped an f-bomb but then I thought he might of been saying thank you to someone.  But it was totally in the direction of his wife's family behind the Jays dugout.  F-bombs at the in laws = awesome!

It sums up the whole game.

Ron - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#166312) #
This loss was a kick to the gut. AJ had been struggling all night and he comes out to start the 7th after already tossing 100 pitches. Doc cruises into the 8th inning and gets pulled after 95 pitches.

I don't want to see Zambrano in a close game again, especially when there are better options in the bullpen. I would rather take my chances with Frasor with the bases loaded and 1 out. Before the season, I said the Jays were going to be a sub .500 team and after the 16 game mark, I have no reason to believe otherwise.


Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#166313) #
I'm thinking that I'd rather have taken my chances with Downs in the 9th than Zambrano.

I would agree that Frasor and Downs are the only people in this bullpen qualified to work the 8th and 9th innings. Weaver's Law assigns long relief to Janssen, Marcum, Vermilyea; Accardo isn't far removed from that; and Zambrano is a career starter who walks more than 5 guys per 9 innings, which doesn't leave him a whole lot of margin...
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#166314) #

Who wants to bet me Rivera finishes the season with an ERA 2.70 or less? These are just hiccups.

Er, yeah. I was just being sarcastic.

ARod is due up in the 9th. Cue the dramatics.

jeff mcl - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#166315) #
Depressing prediction: that version of AJ Burnett will be DESTROYED by the Yankees.  
robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#166316) #
Lost in all this is how poorly Burnett pitched for most of this game. A good hitting team would have blown the Jays out tonight.


JayFan0912 - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#166317) #
This is one of the worst managed ballgames for the jays. They've outhit  the orioles by a lot, and got a pretty good outing from burnett, but gibbons decides to bring marcum in for burnett  -- why would you do that ? really -- he gave up a two run homer to ramirez the other day, and there are other fresher arms in the pen. I could predict that move (bringing in marcum) right off the bat, gibons loves boosting confidence after failures.  And then he correctly inserts jansen into the game after the damage was done by marcum, and just removes him after a flyout and a bloop single... really stupid. I'd put marcum and zambrano in long relief, and let accardo, jansen, and downs handle the setup duty based on their numbers vs. the opposition.

Beyond that the jays offence isn't helping at all. They must have one of the worst RISP average in the league ... how many runners must they leave on the basepaths to score a run ?


Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#166318) #

So who needs Papelbon? The other Japanese pitcher, Okajima (the one who didn't cost $100M), got the save tonight. Papelbon may have been a wee bit fatigued after back-to-back saves in Toronto and got to spectate.

That bum Rodriguez totally choked in the 9th. Ack! Trade him. The bum. Hits a double and two meaningless homeruns in a loss. Never hits them when it matters.

Meanwhile, Boston just continues to give Mariano Rivera grief. This has been going on for a few years now. This could be one interesting weekend in Beantown.

Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#166319) #
They must have one of the worst RISP average in the league ...

Not quite. Coming into tonight, the Jays were hitting .296 with runners in scoring position. That's fourth best in the majors.

All teams that score lots of runs leave lots of runners on base. That is the Nature of Things. Coming into tonight's game, the Jays had scored 73 runs. That's 7th best in the majors.

The offense hasn't really been a big problem....
jeff mcl - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#166320) #
This is worth discussing, because it's a continuation from 2006:

How does a team that's top 3-4 in most offensive categories (AVE/OBP/SLG) rank 7th or worse in runs scored?  And why?

Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#166321) #
Papelbon may have been a wee bit fatigued

Francona said he was not going to use Papelbon three days in a row, and you sure have to admire the way he restrained himself. Ninth inning, one run lead, tying run on first, A-Rod at the plate...

That took resolve. Great heaping helping of it.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#166322) #
The Jays' offense has that weird optical illusion thing happening, where the 7-8-9 hitters are doing better than the 3-4-5 hitters. We're more focused on the failings of the latter than the successes of the former.
Chuck - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#166323) #

That took resolve. Great heaping helping of it.

Imagine the Boston media had Okajima blown the "4-point" game?

Ron - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#166324) #
The Jays scored 42 runs in the first 6 games. In their last 10 games, the Jays have only scored 35 runs.
Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#166325) #
How does a team that's top 3-4 in most offensive categories

They're actually 8th in On-Base Pct, which is more significant than batting average or slugging. But this early, the sample sizes are way too small for team stats anyway. They scored four runs tonight, and PRESTO - they zipped all the way up to 4th place in the majors in runs scored. By the time the late games finsih, they'll drop down a few spots.
Barry Bonnell - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#166326) #
Wow, this team needs to remove Gibbons if it really wants to compete.

Janssen should have been brought in to start the 8th and no way Zambrano should have been out in the 9th.

After the Halladay debacle this is getting ridiculous.

Did anyone hear me on the show with J.P and Wilner tonight? I made the comment on how angry I was that Halladay was taken out yesterday.

Wilner made an inane comment about how Halladay said putting in Downs was the right move and he was shocked that Halladay had made that comment. Shocked? Halladay is pure class and would never question a move his manager made...but his face after the Ramirez home run spoke volumes.
jeff mcl - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#166327) #
I agree.  But, I saw a graphic  early in the game that looked pretty close to 2006 numbers ranking these four categories.   It probably fluctuated after today's box scores were tabulated.  I wouldn't bring it up if I didn't think I saw a strange some carry over from last year. 
Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#166328) #
In their last 10 games, the Jays have only scored 35 runs.

Even that isn't so bad. If they'd been doing that all year, scoring 3.5 per game, they'd have scored 54 runs in 16 games. Even that would rank 10th in the majors, right in between Boston and Baltimore, and is right around the AL average. The offense hasn't disappeared - they aren't the Angels or the Mariners or the White Sox, who dream of scoring 3.5 runs a game...
Magpie - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#166330) #
Oh, crap - disregard previous - I still had the Scoring Position split in effect.

Hang on... just replace Seattle and the White Sox with Oakland ...

GregJP - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#166331) #
Janssen had his good fastball tonight, but why didn't he throw Millar at least one slider with 2 strikes?????????????
greenfrog - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#166332) #
I just finished listening to JP on the FAN. Obviously, winning is the most important measure of a GM's performance (and at the moment, we're falling short on that score), but JP's PR skills really leave something to be desired. He continues to complain (when asked about the bullpen, he made yet another comment about the team's financial constraints) but I never hear him simply say, "we didn't get the job done." He was distracted during the call-in show because he was watching the Red Sox-Yankees game--what message does that send to Jays fans? He also talked up the farm system, commenting that we don't need much in the way of positional players (because most of our positions at the MLB are set), which I find really disingenuous. As though the only value to having prospects is to replenish your starting 9 (as opposed to producing bench players, utility players, injury replacements, or acquisitions from other teams through trades, etc). The system is currently almost barren of positional prospects (with Snider and Thigpen the notable exceptions).

I don't doubt that JP is a passable GM. I'm just not buying what he's selling.
robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#166333) #
The Jays have lost three games in a row and it really doesn't have anything to do with the manager.

If they had left Halladay in and he had given up runs people here would be screaming that that was a blunder.  If you want to complain about a move, do it BEFORE the results are known, otherwise you have no credibility.

Here it is on a platter ...

We've lost 3 games in a row because two of our 8 best offensive guys are out and we have a pop-gun style bench and very few legitimate replacements at AAA. I said it in the offseason, I've said it early this season and I'll say it again - the bench will be the death of this team (and no I don't care what McDonald and Smith are hitting right now). I'm not too sure who should be blamed for giving Gibbons such weak bench bats but I have a hunch that his initials are JPR.

Problem number 2: the bullpen is full of inexperienced guys. Our number one man has gone down to injury and that means everyone in the pen has to take on greater responsibility than was originally planned. Fully healthy, it's an okay pen, but a very far cry from what the Twins and Angels have, for example.

Every pen is going to go through stretches where no matter who you bring in they're going to give up runs. This is one of those stretches. And it isn't Gibbons' fault.

To sum up: injuries, weak bench, inexperienced relievers. None of that is Gibbons' fault.

robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#166335) #
(when asked about the bullpen, he made yet another comment about the team's financial constraints)

Someone should ask JP how much the Twins have budgeted for the bullpen, compared to the Jays.


Barry Bonnell - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#166337) #
//If they had left Halladay in and he had given up runs people here would be screaming that that was a blunder. If you want to complain about a move, do it BEFORE the results are known, otherwise you have no credibility.//

No. If Halladay gives up the home run to Manny or Ortiz you tip your cap to them and say your best beat our best. You don't let Manny beat you with Shawn Marcum on the mound.
Geoff - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#166338) #
3 weeks into the season and Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum each have more saves than Mariano Rivera to their credit.

Yet the Jays bullpen is squandering wins on a regular basis to leave them two games behind the Red Sox, ahead of only Tampa Bay and their mighty bullpen.

robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#166339) #
By your argument, you'd never take Halladay out in a close game - because he's our best.

And if Roy comes down with shoulder tightness in June and has to miss 3 starts because he pitched too many innings in April, that helps them win the pennant - how exactly?

I don't want my star pitcher overworked in April and I have to trust my pen to get 6 outs with a two run lead.




Ryan Day - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#166340) #
We've lost 3 games in a row because two of our 8 best offensive guys are out and we have a pop-gun style bench and very few legitimate replacements at AAA. I said it in the offseason, I've said it early this season and I'll say it again - the bench will be the death of this team (and no I don't care what McDonald and Smith are hitting right now).

You'll have to explain how that works to me: The Jays have been losing because the bench players can't hit, even though the bench players have been hitting? Somehow, I find it easier to blame the fact that only Aaron Hill has an OBP over .330, and neither the DH nor the 1b has cracked a .400 SLG.  I wish all the regulars were hitting as well as Jason Smith.

It's not going to stay this way, but the injuries and the bench haven't hurt the team yet. It's the healthy players that are dragging the offence down.
GregJP - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#166341) #
I think that Speier would look very good about now as an 8th/9th inning guy in conjunction with Frasor.

I don't really get using Zambrano over Accardo or Downs in the 9th inning today.  So far Accardo hasn't had a chance in a high leverage situation, and I think Gibbons needs to find out if he can be that key 7th/8th inning guy with the lead.

What have Zambrano and Marcum exactly done to be ahead of Downs and Accardo in the food chain?



 
robertdudek - Friday, April 20 2007 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#166342) #
Yes the bench players have been hitting - singles. Well, I count Clayton as a bench player because he's not good enough to be a starter even though he is the starting shortstop. And there is obviously more pressure on the offensive core now that Sparky and Glaus are out.

Don't worry, as soon as Rios et al get it cranking up, the bench guys will pile up the 0-fors. It always seems to happen that way.



China fan - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#166343) #
   Robertdudek, you're still not making sense.  You began by saying that the Jays lost three in a row because of a "weak bench".   Then you admit that, actually, the bench players are hitting.   Finally, you say that they're hitting singles.  So how is this responsible for the three losses?     It's obvious that you're blaming the bench because you had predicted before the season that "the bench would be the death of the Jays" and now you want to persuade us that your prediction is proven by the three losses.   But in fact the three losses do not prove your prediction in any way.   As noted above, it is the healthy hitters who are failing to hit.   Why not simply admit that several regulars are in a slump, and the bench is doing okay?
Magpie - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#166344) #
the bench players have been hitting - singles. Well, I count Clayton as a bench player...

Clayton's got 12 hits and 7 of them are doubles. So maybe you don't want to count him for a while, he messes up your argument. A little patience, he'll be there for you.
Ryan Day - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#166345) #
It'd be nice if Overbay, Thomas, Zaun, and even Wells were hitting a few more singles. Power and plate discipline are just pretty baubles if you can't actually put bat on ball.

At the end of the season - probably by the All-Star break, even - I have no doubt that the regulars will be crushing the ball and John McDonald will be hitting about .230. That, unfortunately, is not happening right now.

It's really not John McDonald's, or even Matt Stairs', fault the Jays are losing.

Lefty - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#166346) #

Clearly there is a bit of frustration building among the faithful.

I'd have to say Dudek is more right than wrong in his analyses of the teams struggles.

A team is the sum of its parts, and when all those parts are not available, then there is extra strain on the machine itself.

With Ryan gone, the pen has been lifted out of its early comfort zone. I wonder how many are as dead certain the team could just send outright Towers and Ohka now. Marcum and Janssen look exactly what they are, decent young, inexperienced arms.

 

AWeb - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#166347) #
I have a hard time believing a starting pitcher with a pulse that is inexpensive could clear waivers right now. Don't Washington get a shot at people? Or Tampa? I don't see Towers or Ohka making it past the NL, even if they could get through the AL.

As for why Toronto has lost the last three games, I think it's pretty clear that the blame for the last three games can't be put on the weak bench, since they haven't performed weakly.  The bench is a good reason why Toronto will continue to struggle in the future, but it takes a bit of a disconnect from reality to see it as why they struggled recently. In reverse, the  Yankees won't continue to win because A-Rod hits 130 HR, drives in 324, and scores 216 (one would assume). But that is a major reason they've managed to win games so far.

Why hasn't Toronto won? In the last 5 games, they haven't scored on the other teams bullpen. 11 innings, 0 runs despite a reasonable number of baserunners. I don't really care which hitters didn't manage the big hits, they'll mostly even out in the end. But someone has to get them if you're going to win. The Jays BP has given up 3 runs each of the last two games, but if Wells hits a HR in the 9th tonight, or Hill doesn't hit into the DP against Boston in the 8th, we barely even notice.

Mylegacy - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#166348) #

Tonight I went crazy.

When Zambrano was announced and I was bouncing off the ceiling (and at 12 feet I've got a high ceiling) my wife, aka, she who must be obeyed, said, "Dear, sweetie pie, sugar plumy, why are you so distraught and full of angst? (It was either that or, "A**hole calm down!"... I can't remember her exact words) .

I replied..."This is the dumbest, f*cking, sh*thead move I've ever seen...you watch, Zambrano is the worse guy we could put in now. He has no control. He'll give up a bloop hit, walk a couple and then...bingo...we lose."

SO, since earlier in this thread it was said..

"If you want to complain about a move, do it BEFORE the results are known, otherwise you have no credibility."

AND, since my blushing bride of more years than I can count on all my various appendages is a witness...I can truthfully claim... I GOT CREDIBILITY! Now, if we could only win some stinking ball games, then I'd have contentment as well!

Mylegacy - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#166349) #

Thank God our Ace goes tomorrow. Towers, the only guy we can count on. Yikes.

IF we're gonna lose... I'd much rather lose with five starters chosen from; Halladay, Burnett, Janssen, Marcum, McGowan, Purcey and Towers... at least that way I'd feel there was a chance...that if they put it together...we could contend. All spring I've been willing to go with Chacin and Ohka because I knew Janssen, Marcum and Zambrano were ready to help, and I knew McGowan and Romero might we ready soon. Because of the weather Romero has yet to pitch this year! 

It's killing me to see Janssen's electric stuff being used p*ss poorly in the pen when he should be starting. Ohka or Chacin should be playing their smoke and mirrors routines in the bullpen, or better still Syracuse.

Boy, am I in a snit. Time for a scotch, single malt of course, and then to beddy bye, I've vented enough testosterone for one evening, a guy my age only has so much.

Ron - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#166350) #
when asked about the bullpen, he made yet another comment about the team's financial constraints

Did WWJP move to Friday?

Good thing I didn't listen because if I heard that comment, I probably would have been tempted to smash my iPod.
JP has used the payroll excuse every single season he has been the Jays GM. I could understand his frustration during the 50 million dollar years but he shouldn't play that card anymore.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#166352) #
To paraphrase: JP's comment was in response to a caller who said we're paying the price for 'going cheap' on the bullpen. JP said he didn't have unlimited resources to sign guys like Speier (who signed for $18M over four years), or to spend money at every position like some teams (he didn't name any, but we all know which ones he's talking about). He also challenged a frustrated caller to "throw out some names" of bullpen guys he could have signed in the off-season - let's just say it wasn't the most edifying exchange between management and a fan. The same sullen tone we're all used to when the Jays fall out of contention.

I think JP is still normally on on Wednesdays. I guess he was only available on Friday this week.


Barry Bonnell - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#166353) #

By your argument, you'd never take Halladay out in a close game - because he's our best.

And if Roy comes down with shoulder tightness in June and has to miss 3 starts because he pitched too many innings in April, that helps them win the pennant - how exactly?

I don't want my star pitcher overworked in April and I have to trust my pen to get 6 outs with a two run lead.

I wouldn't take Halladay out when he had only thrown 95 pitches and had been cruising to that point and and the prior two  innings had been cakewalks.  If he had thrown 110 pitches, then yeah, maybe you take him out. The fact is Gibbons preferred Down/Ortiz  and Marcum/Ramirez over one the best pitchers in the major leagues and he cost us a game.

Please, if Gibby is that concerned about shoulder tightness he wouldn't have brought Burnett out to pitch the 7th last night when his pitch count had already exceeded Halladay's from the day before.

 

Chuck - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#166355) #

I replied..."This is the dumbest, f*cking, sh*thead move I've ever seen...you watch, Zambrano is the worse guy we could put in now. He has no control. He'll give up a bloop hit, walk a couple and then...bingo...we lose."

Rog, I think there were a great many of us yelling at our television sets when Zambrano's name was announced. We just didn't make a point of logging our concerns on-line, to leave a formal record of our prescience.

I'm not sure why Zambrano is being treated more like Carlos than Victor, but I think he should be limited to long relief as a way of auditioning for one of the back-end rotation spots should it eventually be deemed necessary to make a change. I'm not sure he's done enough in his career to justify high leverage use in the bullpen. On top of that, he's still bouncing back from TJ surgery so he's not even his old self, as unspectacular as that was.

timpinder - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#166359) #

My wife and my in-laws were my witnesses.  I didn't understand why Marcum was coming in instead of Janssen who was fresh, but I guess you could say Gibbons was trying to get Marcum back on the horse to boost his confidence.  (2 earned runs in 0.1 innings later, mission failed).

Anyway, there was no excuse for Zambrano.  What a ridiculous move.  I believe my exact words were:  "What?  That's absolutely ridiculous.  Gibbons is an idiot".  At that point Janssen had pitched fine over a whopping 0.2 innings.  Just like MyLegacy, I predicted the imminent loss.  Again, my exact words:  "Watch this.  This guy walks about five batters every nine innings.  He's going to walk one or two guys and give up a hit.  We just lost.  Ridiculous". 

I don't think I've ever criticized Gibbons here before, but that was just stupid in my opinion. 

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