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No Cole Hamels this weekend, but the lefty the Jays do get to contend with might be even scarier...

The Phillies, as a team, don't enjoy striking out. Their one regular who doesn't mind, Ryan Howard, is on the 15-day DL with a quad injury. That takes a huge bite out of this lineup's potency. Third baseman Wes Helms alternates between third and first in Howard's absence, with Mariner refugee first baseman Greg Dobbs and veteran utilityman Abraham Nunez splitting the playing time not occupied by Helms. Howard's injury means that the long-awaited titanic Mo State collision between him and Shaun Marcum will have to wait another year at least.

Philly's regular lineup with Howard missing is full of BABIP wonders. Some of those high hit rates seem sustainable (Chase Utley, Shane Victorino) and one abnormally low one will almost certainly improve (Jimmy Rollins), but the rest appear to be due for a slump.

Pat Burrell is a walking machine.

The contact-mad nature of the Phils' lineup will make for some interesting clashes with the Jays' young starters, as Dustin McGowan's raw stuff, Marcum's stellar strikeout rate and Jesse Litsch's surprise sinker collide with an NL-style BIP machine. It also means that pinch-hits that compromise the Jays' defense in close games are risky, since there will be more balls in play than usual.

In a desperation move, Brett Myers was moved to the bullpen after his second and third starts of the year were lousy. I think this weakens the Phillies' pitching staff (especially so long as Adam Eaton gets to take the ball every five days). At least Myers has been very effective in relief, so the Phils have a solid closer in the absence of the injured Tom Gordon. They definitely aren't shy about using Myers as a super-closer: he's been brought in at the start of the eighth inning for multiple flat-out two-inning saves. Progressive!

The chart lies: Jon Lieber is actually still Jon Lieber. His walk rate is just inflated by a six-walk showing in a draining loss against Atlanta. Saturday starter Jamie Moyer is back up to his usual masterful standard of hit avoidance, using his super-devious method of throwing just enough cutters that hitters are tempted to sit on inside pitches and get themselves out when Moyer goes for the trash on the outside corner. Adam Eaton is coming off two strong starts, in which he's gone 7+ innings each time.

The Credit Section: Batted-ball and Leverage Index are available at Fangraphs. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits. Everything else, most notably the AL average statistics, is available at The Hardball Times.

Mini-Advance Scout: Phillies, May 18-20 | 41 comments | Create New Account
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John Northey - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#168324) #
Always fun to read these.

Jamie Moyer - HOF'er?

Sounds funny at first, then I looked at B-R to see his career figures.

220 wins, 106 ERA+, 567 winning percentage, 2 20 win seasons, 3-1 in the postseason with a 2.66 ERA. 963 BB vs 2024 SO 3405 IP

Compare to Catfish Hunter - 224 wins, 104 ERA+, 574 winning percentage, 5 20 win seasons, 9-6 3.26 ERA in postseason. 954 BB vs 2012 SO 3449 IP

Surprised? I was. Catfish played fewer seasons (15, done at 33 vs 21 and still going) but the W-L records are far closer than I'd have thought and the ERA (relative to league) is almost identical as are IP, BB, and SO. Weird.
Rob - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#168325) #
Jayson Werth is slugging .270 with a .360 average on balls in play? Ouch. And here I thought he was still a Dodger.
tstaddon - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#168328) #
I have a feeling that Sal's old Pals are going to be stealing a lot of bases this weekend...
Magpie - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#168332) #
Remarkable how close Moyer and Hunter are in the end.

The most innings Moyer has ever pitched in a season was 234, which was a light load for Catfish, who threw at least many innings 10 years in a row beginning at age 21, going over 290 IP four times in five years.  At the end of this, his arm pretty much fell off (although it was briefly resurrected for the second half of 1978, without which there could have been no Bucky Dent Game.)

Hunter's best seasons are slightly better than Moyer's best, but not by a lot. So the real difference between the two is that Catfish crammed most of the same productivity into ten very high workload seasons. Which has value of its own (although being able to contribute effectively for another ten years itself has value.)

On the off chance that anyone's missed me (there was no TDIB yesterday!) - I'm between computers. I'm setting up a new one (lots of data transferring and software re-installation is on my plate.)

But I still have to unpack the laptop just to check in on everyone every couple of days. Hopefully, I'll be back up and running (twice as fast as before!) by Monday.

ayjackson - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#168335) #

Jamie Moyer - HOF'er?

Sounds funny at first, then I looked at B-R to see his career figures.

Sometimes HoF voters should set precedents, not follow them.

Geoff - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#168338) #
  18 - 22
  18 - 22
  18 - 23
  18 - 23
& 28 - 12

These are the AL east standings as of now, in no particular order. Certainly the season won't continue on this plane and it is only 1/4 completed.  10 games difference doesn't mean too much in May if you can make up that ground over 120 games. I would say no AL east team is a complete write-off given the standings, but health, fortune and money bags will be a factor on each team down the stretch, for better or worse.

So to my question behind all this: Is interest level out there faded away? Is this division no longer entertaining for a great many?

China fan - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#168339) #

  The Jays are really missing Reed Johnson.  In fact, judging by the last 20 games or so, I'd say Reed is more valuable to this team that BJ Ryan.   The Jays really need a sparkplug to get the offence into high gear.

   And what about the $146-million given to Wells and Thomas in the off-season?   When is that investment going to start paying some dividends?


John Northey - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#168340) #
I'd say the biggest loss is Greg Zaun so far. 

Reed Johnson 98 OPS+ lifetime - replaced by Lind 78 OPS+
Halladay - hasn't missed too much and will return soon, replacement went 8 2/3 IP with 1 R allowed
Ryan - Big loss, took awhile to figure out Accardo (0.00 ERA) is the best option as a fill-in
Zaun - 88 OPS+ lifetime, 94-110 as a Jay - replaced by Phillips (63 OPS+) and Fasano (46 OPS+)

For obvious impact Ryan is the leader due to those blown saves by both him and the rest of the pen after he went down, but now the Jays seem to have found a fill-in. Halladay going down might have opened up opportunity for others in a good way.  Lind was expected to hit better than this and should given time.  Zaun though... Phillips has forgotten which end of the bat is which while Fasano never really knew plus Zaun was known as a good handler of this staff.

I'm just hopeful that Thigpen can catch and continue to hit in the majors at some point (probably a September call-up) as his 297/357/446 stats in AAA look darn good right now.

FYI: In high A Brian Jeroloman (22 years old) is hitting 277/451/376 while catching.  Weird numbers (extremely patient hitter with 32 walks and 101 AB's) and if he can just show a bit more power I'd say he will climb quickly.

Ryan Day - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#168341) #
Tonight we see why in my opinion, Dustin McGowan will never amount to anything.

Sounds a bit premature. And absolute. Would you have said the same thing about the 2000 Blue Jays Rotation?
actionjackson - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#168343) #
Don't forget about Lind ripping a double down the left field line in the ninth inning off Brett Myers, who has an ERA around 1.00 since moving to the bullpen. You have to be patient with kids Sherrystar and I don't know what other options there are right now. I would rather go through the unknown peaks and valleys with McGowan, Litsch, and Marcum than the known abyss with Ohka, Zambrano, and Thomson. How idiotic and impatient would the braintrust look if they sent him out now after promising him an opportunity? He's only had 3 starts. Is that any reasonable sample size to base a decision on? This isn't a roto league, where you toss players aside for short term poor performance. Hopefully, the Jays are trying to build something here and as Ryan Day mentioned, McGowan isn't even close to being as bad as Doc was in 2000. I understand the frustration and I feel it too, but when injuries force you to go with kids inconsistency will be the order of the day. You've just got to ride it out and hope you find some bright spots.
timpinder - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#168345) #

And McGowan looks like he's just so close to putting it all together.  Four innings of dominance, then the 5th happens.  He's showing signs of brilliance but it seems like he loses his concentration or forgets his mechanics in spells.  He's also had just a bit of bad luck.  If one of those ground balls was over a few feet a double play could have gotten him out of that 5th inning with maybe one run allowed.   



John Northey - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#168346) #
Wow, did Carpenter (175 IP 79 ERA+ 6.26 ERA), Escobar (180 IP 93 ERA+ 5.35 ERA) and Halladay (67 2/3 IP 47 ERA+ 10.64 ERA) suck big time that year.  Ages 25/24/23.  Meanwhile Vernon Wells and Josh Phelps both had OPS+ in the negatives - although that was due to having a total of 3 AB between them in September.

Jim Fregosi was the worst choice for a manager they Jays could've made imo.  He couldn't develop young pitchers and did some ugly things with that lineup (Homer Bush getting 297 AB's with a 33 OPS+ that year, keeping Alex Gonzalez at SS when Batista looked darn good there the year before and Tony Fernandez was hitting up a storm at third, Jose Cruz Jr never developing, etc.)

ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#168350) #
Looks like the young guys are almost assured to get a longer audition.  Today's Sun says that the Jays are shopping Ohka and Towers.
Dave Till - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#168351) #
Fregosi was an emergency stop-gap manager, of course; he was hired mostly because he was available on short notice when the whole Tim Johnson thing blew up in Gord Ash's face. His biggest weakness was that he just couldn't handle a pitching staff - he'd pull the starting pitcher early in game after game, overworking his bullpen. He got burned badly when the Jays faced a stretch or two of extra-inning games.

What strikes me now about the Interbrew-era Jays, in retrospect, was their air of complacency. The team had some good young players, but the Jays were forced to keep them in the lineup even when they underperformed. The farm system was dry, and the team couldn't afford to bring in replacement-level backups in case of emergency. Too often, the following scenario took place:
  1. A young Jay was handed a starting job.
  2. He underperformed because he felt safe.
  3. Eventually, he went elsewhere.
  4. He did better elsewhere because expectations were higher.
  5. In an interview with a Toronto baseball columnist, the player would point out how much better things were elsewhere.
People who complain about J.P. and/or Rogers don't know how comparatively well-off we are now. A few years ago, there were people who were speculating whether baseball was sustainable in Toronto. (I recall a Toronto Life article predicting that the Jays would be out of town by 2010.) There was even talk of contraction. Now, the Jays still have the problem of sharing a division with two 800-pound gorillas with unlimited cash flow, but no one is saying that the franchise is doomed.

As for McGowan: you absolutely have to keep running him out there every fifth day. There aren't many pitchers who are capable of dominating the opposition, and McGowan has done that in fits and starts. He could wind up being the new Kelvim Escobar, never quite getting control of his game - but he could become a star.

tstaddon - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#168356) #
I agree with the idea that McGowan's close. The ERA's ugly right now, but after 4 innings, he'd been dynamite last night -- and all in just 53 pitches. Fasano said after the game that McGowan was pressing himself to induce a ground ball and lost his mechanics because of it. That's just inexperience. Keep trotting Dustin out there and he'll find it eventually. Meantime, the fans will support him through the hard times.

If they really wanted to shop Towers, they should've let him continue starting. Of his four games, one was great, one was effective and two weren't good (though neither was so bad to warrant the hook). His 4.70 ERA as a starter is still third on the team among guys with more than one start.
Gerry - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#168358) #
Victor Zambrano is pitching tonight for Dunedin, two scoreless innings so far, no hits, 3 walks.
ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#168359) #
tstaddon - I figure that April 15 was Towers' great start, but which one was his effective start?
GregJP - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#168360) #
Man, I didn't watch Marcum's last start, but tonight he's making quality pitch after quality pitch.

Fast balls in great locations, and his breaking balls have the Phillies totally off balance.

He's throwing like a guy who has things all figured out as far as getting major league hitters out.  I'm sure I just jinxed him.  :)

Squiggy - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#168361) #

People who complain about J.P. and/or Rogers don't know how comparatively well-off we are now.

Well, those are two very different things. Many of us complain about JP. But I personally am glad Rogers came along when they did, and nobody is complaining about the higher payrolls that Rogers has sprung for lately. I just wish they had hired a different GM. JP's not the worst, but he's far from the best.

To imply that JP is even remotely responsible for keeping MLB in Toronto is a bit of a stretch. He's given us very Ash-like results in the final statistics that the average season ticket-buyer cares about (wins and post-season appearances). There may be more optimism around here (perhaps due mostly to the Rogers dollars) , but the win totals are not all that different.

Gerry - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#168362) #
Final line on Zambrano, four innings, one hit, seven walks, two runs, three K's.
Maldoff - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#168369) #

Seems like people in California are already hoping for a trade for Troy Glaus.....,1,4308495.story?coll=la-headlines-pe-sports

Mike Green - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#168370) #
I'm back from holiday, and the news was spotty. I see that Doc is out after an appendectomy, and that Jesse Litsch (!) is taking his place for 4-6 weeks.  What was the rationale for the choice of LItsch over a promotion of Janssen to the rotation and bringing someone up for the pen?
grjas - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#168371) #

Well Sunday's game seemed like an ecapsulation of the season:

  • pitcher shows hope for a game, loses it the next
  • vaunted lineup goes 0'fer with men in scoring position
  • boneheaded plays on the basepaths
  • non-show by the DH (oh yeah this was in an NL park- oh well what's the difference)
  • solo HR's when it hardly matters
  • bench is abysmal
  • bizarre manager decisions (play your closer in the 8th so you can PH him in the 9th)

The most frustrating thing about this team is the listless attitude. Sure attendance is low: if the players don't care why should we?

The picket line is looking enticing.

Petey Baseball - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#168372) #
I hate to be overly negative after a loss (like I have been many many times this particular year, unlike previous ones) but I am officially joining the Blue Jays strike. I just can't put myself through afternoon like today, as guys like Jason Phillips, John McDonald and Ryan Roberts keep getting trotted out there. Yeah talk about injuries all you want, but these guys would still be getting playing time under Gibby's  "keep everyone happy" system of managing even with the regular group.  I have no problem with Royce Clayton starting everyday at short, the guy has lasted 13 years in the pro's and when played regularly at the start of the season, he was actually faring pretty well at the plate.

I love Johnny Mac but, its time to bring up Rey Olemdo. At least Olemdo has good footspeed and can be justifiably placed on a roster as a late game pinch runner./defensive replacement. I have my doubts that he could be any worse than McDonald at the plate, and my hunch is, that he could at least put up a .320 on base percentage.  The Minister of Defence simply should not be in this lineup 5 out of 7 games. Its killing them.  Unlike the catching situation, there are some choices available.

I'm also going on strike because I have finally been convinced that they cannot win consistently with John Gibbons as manager. He did an ok job in his nearly 2 1/2 years of managing, but its becoming obvious that ok is just not good enough. There is no fire on this team. Maybe thats a stretch with Reed and Zaun out, but even when they were in the lineup this team simply doesn't show up consistently.  Hands up if you have grown weary of the Jays habit of having a strong mini-stretch of two or three games, only to inexplicably throw up two (or three) out of three stinkers in the next mini-stretch? I realize that this has to do 90% with the personnel on the field, but it just doesn't seem that Gibbons is capable of getting enough out of the guys he's got. 

For goodness sakes people,  Jim Leyland can get guys like Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge and Marcus Thames to step up and to play inspired, consistent baseball while still getting good production out of the Sheffield's and Ordonez's and Pudge's of the world. Ron Gardenhire can get guys like Jason freaking Tyner and Lew Ford to be solid contributors to the winning in Minnesota.
There are many such examples from across the league from managers who have been on the job shorter than Gibby. Who has overacheived on a consistent basis in the 415 games Gibbons has managed? Have any young players blossomed?  Have any fringe players suprised? The answer to this question for the most part, is...well....not really.  His constant lineups switches, (how many different places has Aaron Hill and Lyle Overaby hit in the lineup this year so far) and unneccessary games off (why the hell would hitters like Lyle Overbay or Vernon sit against anybody?) over the past two years are mystifying. The only way guys like that should sit, is if there is an injury, or they ask for it. And I guarentee you that both those guys didn't ask more than once if that.

 carry over from the very strong end to the homestand. Take last years July series where they manhandled the Yankees moving back in the pennant race, and then for whatever reason played perhaps their sloppiest road trip of the season on the West Coast and in New York. 

I'm on strike.

Ryan Day - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#168373) #
For goodness sakes people,  Jim Leyland can get guys like Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge and Marcus Thames to step up and to play inspired, consistent baseball while still getting good production out of the Sheffield's and Ordonez's and Pudge's of the world.

Monroe: 232/285/428
Inge: 225/316/413
Thames: 184/254/407
Rodriguez: 253/263/393
Sheffield: 240/361/433
Ordonez: 346/429/660

Never mind that Sean Casey is the first baseman, hitting 252/303/313. There are four guys in the starting lineup with an OBP of .316 or lower. And the bench of Thames, Infante, Rabelo, and Perez makes the Jays bench look like WAMCO.

Good thing Leyland's around, though. Things could really get ugly if these guys weren't so inspired. 
Petey Baseball - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#168374) #

Ryan: Marcus Thames hit 26 home runs last year.

           Neifi Perez has played in the Majors for 10 years mostly as a starter. He may not be Jose Reyes, but he sure aint John McDonald.

           Omar Infante can play 5 positions, and has played in over 200 games in the bigs.  

           Rabello: Well I can't say much. But he's better than Sal Fasano or Jay Phillips I bet.

Okay, its fine if you don't put much stock in inspired baseball.  Neither do I, quite frankly.  But something has to explain the absolutely baffling inconsistency in player development, and the lack of any emergance of...well...anything.





Ryan Day - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#168375) #
You don't think Aaron Hill, Alex Rios, Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janssen, or Shaun Marcum have emerged?

I'd say you have high standards, but you also just okayed Neifi Perez, who may have been a starter for 10 years but hasn't had an OBP over .300 since 2001 (and that mostly happened while playing in Colorado). If there's a difference between him and McDonald, it's a pretty tiny one. And if Leyland was able to inspire Thames to hit 26 homers last year, what's he been doing this year?

The difference between the Tigers and the Jays isn't Leyland's ability to motivate mediocrity. It's the DL-free rotation of Robertson, Durbin, Verlander, Bonderman, and Maroth.

Gerry - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#168376) #


John Thomson was injured (blister); Taubenheim and Purcey's past few starts were not great.  Geremi Gonzalez was either released or sold to Japan.  I had thought they might bring up Josh Banks but they picked Litsch because they thought he was "throwing the best" right now.  With Towers, Vermilyea and Tallet solidly in the back half of the bullpen, and with Jason Frasor struggling, Casey Janssen is too valuable in the pen to pull him out now.

I see Litsch getting at least one more start, if he is hit in Minnesota then John Thomson could come up.

Ryan Day - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#168377) #
I'll admit, too, that I'm not a fan of Gibbons - his bench usage is bizarre, even considering the quality of the bench (though Matt Stairs is redeeming the faith of the Jays management), and his bullpen management is even worse whenever a starter pitches less than eight innings.

However, I don't think we can really count "not having Jim Leyland's magic powers" against him.

timpinder - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#168378) #
Gibbons continues to bench Lind so that Stairs can get AB's.  I don't have a problem with it from a management perspective, since Lind has been stuggling and Stairs has been swinging a hot bat.  But Lind isn't going to improve while he's sitting on the pine.  If he's not going to play, then in my opinion he should take the bus to Syracuse and get regular playing time in AAA.  If he stays down there for a month or so it will have the added benefit of giving the Jays control of him for an extra year, if I'm not mistaken.  Either way, in my opinion he needs to play everyday, whether it's in Toronto or Syracuse.
Wildrose - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#168379) #

Seems like people in California are already hoping for a trade for Troy Glaus.....

I'd do a Glaus/LaRoche deal in a country  second, especially given how rickety Glaus looks on the bases and in the field. Also he's a diminishing asset as he probably will be a free agent after 2008. I think this writer is just blowing smoke. It should be noted that Laroche's father works for the Blue Jays.

Mylegacy - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#168380) #

For goodness sake "girly boys" (with apologies to Governor Terminator)...

Litsch pitched a fairly good game...some of the hits he gave up were on pretty good pitches. Wells lost nine pounds when he had his prolonged "flu(ish) thing" and was saying just the other day he still feels weak. Frasor looked good the other night, the pitching IS coming around. Hitting is cyclical, all winter we stare at a 285/356/506 set of numbers like the guy ALWAYS does that...those numbers are the end result of a year of highs and lows.

I'm EXCITED, DAMN EXCITED about; Rios, Wells (as he regains his strength), Glaus (I'm developing a real man-crush for him), Hill, Overbay, Accardo, Janssen, Frasor (who's coming around), Litsch (guy looks like Marcum), Marcum, (even) McGowan and AJ (finally seeming to step up when needed).... put those 12 guys together with a healthy Halladay, Zaun and Ryan and you've got the heart of a contender.

On strike? No way, play ball! Hell, lets play two!

Sherrystar - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#168382) #

How can we be excited about a team who's season is OVER and it's not even the end of MAY!

How can we be excited about a team that has made Lieber, Eaton, Seo and a few others, look like Cy Young award winners? We keep hearing the offence will come around, the offense will come around. When, in October?

Make no mistake, I too love this team... but we've been hearing about "wait till next year" for too long! A strike is more in order than any optimism.

p.s. Frank Thomas didn't even come close to those Myers fastballs. Is his batspeed on the decline (which would not be surprising at his age)

Ryan Day - Sunday, May 20 2007 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#168384) #
Me, I'm excited every time Roy Halladay steps on the mound, and usually at least every other time A.J. Burnett goes out there.

I'm excited to watch Troy Glaus, who plays every game like a gladiator and hits the ball as hard and far as anyone in the game.

I'm excited because while Jeremy Accardo probably will give up a run at some point this year, it's still pretty darn cool to see a guy with a 0.00 ERA in late May.

I'm excited because Shaun Marcum has given up four hits in twelve innings as a starter.

I'm excited because Aaron Hill is the best second baseman we've seen in this city since Roberto Alomar left. (Admittedly the field is weak... but still, Hill is pretty great)

I'm excited because even when Vernon is just okay, he's still pretty awesome

I'm excited because Scott Downs has a 1.72 ERA and 21 Ks in 15 innings and he's the third best reliever on the team.

So what the heck, you know? Sure, the season is a disappointment, and John Gibbons makes me bang my head against the wall three or four times a week. It's still baseball, and even a lousy team gives you something to cheer about 60 or 70 times a year - and I don't think the Jays will be particularly lousy the rest of the year.
GregJP - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#168385) #
Hands up if you have grown weary of the Jays habit of having a strong mini-stretch of two or three games, only to inexplicably throw up two (or three) out of three stinkers in the next mini-stretch?

Well, when you are a 0.500 team you will tend to have 3 or 4 game winning streaks at most followed by similar losing streaks.

If you flip a coin you will get a similar pattern.  If you have the talent to finish at or near 0.500 the chances of having a 6 game winning streak are approximately 1.5%.

Now when you have 0.600 ball talent the chances of such winning streaks are significantly increased.

As far as  Gibbons, I doubt he or any other manager could make this present team anything other than what it is, which is a 0.500 team at best.
subculture - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#168386) #
Funny how we can 'see' the same thing, but really process them very differently.

I actually like J. Mac as a part-time SS/utility player, and think Clayton is just an older version who no longer even has the glove.  His at-bats should be given to somebody younger, or we should be trading for a decent SS...  same with Stairs... and we should just have Philips or Fasano, not both.

Another note - I don't think it's co-incidence that the Jays pitching has improved after Doc hit the DL.  I think there's some kind of effect here, like maybe he's just so much better than everyone else on the staff, that nobody else has the confidence to be 'the man'.  Or, with so many on the DL, that everyone now realizes the team needs each one of them to perform b/c the ace isn't around to bail them out every 5 games.

Time to rebuild for next year, but I'm going to keep watching, b/c I'm excited by the development of the younger jays, esp. the young pitching which has taken so long to develop.  re: McGowan, does anyone else think that his mechanics seem less consistent when he's got runners on base?

Chuck - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#168387) #

Another note - I don't think it's co-incidence that the Jays pitching has improved after Doc hit the DL.  I think there's some kind of effect here, like maybe he's just so much better than everyone else on the staff, that nobody else has the confidence to be 'the man'.

Or it could have something to do with facing weak hitting teams like Baltimore and Tampa Bay. You know, occam's razor and all.

Mark - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#168388) #
I think Orlando Hudson has to be considered the best second baseman the Jays have had since Robbie left.
ayjackson - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#168398) #

I think Orlando Hudson has to be considered the best second baseman the Jays have had since Robbie left

I'd rather have Hill, myself.

Mick Doherty - Monday, May 21 2007 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#168400) #
I never considered Moyer vs. Hunter and as much as I love Moyer, never have really thought of him as a HOFer -- and he won't even make the first cut in voting, unless he hangs around until he's 50 and wins 300 games. Ain't happenin'.

I think the difference is that Hunter established himself and his bona fides early on -- he was an All-Star at 20, a Cy Young Winner at 28, a World Series champ at 26, The Free Agent Who Changed Everything before he was 30.

At age 28, Moyer's career record was 34-54 and he had been a "throw-in" in a couple of big trades. It was all perception -- early Hunter, was great and that aura stayed with him until and after he retired while Moyer didn't really "find" himself until his early 30's.

And, much as statheads hate the idea, it is the Hall of Fame NOT the Hall of Compiled Career Statistics.

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