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Happy Simcoe Day.

Once again, it's an opportunity to take down the Yankees. You know 'em, you love 'em. This time, the Jays will have the dreaded Rogers Centre Mystique and Aura on their side as they look to keep up with the scalding-hot pinstripe offense in three home games.


But the dreaded Rogers Centre Mystique and Aura will receive a stiff challenge this afternoon from the remarkably mystique-immune Andy Pettitte, who for some reason has received very little attention in the advance scout this year. No more. This changes now.

Pettitte has sustained some seriously odd splits this year. Lefties are hitting .319/.375/.514 off him, while righties are hitting a thoroughly unimpressive .278/.325/.370. He's been hit harder at home - .300/.354/.437 in notorious lefty pitchers' haven Yankee Stadium - than on the road, .277/.327/.377. His career splits show that he's been 12 points of OPS tougher on righties than lefties, a difference that's nowhere near as pronounced as it is in the single-season splits.

Pettitte has a frustrating, sliderish cutter in the mid-80s that breaks substantially and shatters poor righty hitters' bats, eliciting looks of heartfelt concern from the poor lefties who know that's the fate that awaits them in the 9th if they don't get to Pettitte before it's too late. Unlike some cutter artists, who prefer to jam hitters up high, Pettitte likes to pound his cutter down in the zone relatively often, leading to a high groundball rate. He's also got a 90ish fastball which is an effective strikeout pitch because it isn't the cutter, as well as a curve and a changeup. He hides everything well. He can get in trouble when he pitches exclusively off the cutter and fastball.

One way to destroy Pettitte is knowing when the cutter's coming and not swinging at it. The '01 Diamondbacks obliterated him in World Series Game 6 when they discovered he was tipping his cutter. If you can't steal signs, beating him fair and square is a challenge. The Jays have only managed four runs, two earned, off Pettitte this year, and one of them came on a straight steal of home...

Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells have thrashed Pettitte over their careers. Thomas is 17-45 with 11 walks to 5 strikeouts. Glaus is 10-34 with 7 walks to 9 strikeouts and a .676 slugging percentage. Wells is 11-26 with 3 walks, 3 K and a homer. Lyle Overbay is 1-15 with no walks; Matt Stairs is 0-6. Nobody else has any noteworthy success to speak of. These splits make no sense at all.

Tomorrow, it's the 45-year-old Roger Clemens, two days removed from his birthday. Happy birthday, Roger Clemens! He has reason to be glad he isn't the 44-year-old Roger Clemens anymore, 'cause that guy got shellacked for eight runs by the White Sox (the White Sox (the White Sox)) and got booed off the Yankee Stadium mound in the second inning. Incredibly, the Yankees got him off the hook in the bottom of that same inning.

Thursday, it's Chien-Ming Wang. I have nothing to add about Wang that isn't already common knowledge except that he's durable and consistent. In 20 starts, he has only failed to make it out of the sixth inning once. That's startling. He's good.

The Yankee offense is en fuego. They're averaging about 10 runs a game over the last week while powering the team to five wins in six games against the AL Central's weakest links. New York is 18-7 after the all-star break. Robinson Cano's turnaround has been important: he's hitting .428 post-ASB as opposed to not so well in the first half.

Breaking news, as Joba Chamberlain (stats + video!) will join the team in Toronto. He'll be activated, either just before today's game or just after, in Mike Myers' spot, where he will work as a reliever. Joe Torre has never met the guy, but I think he'll come to like him pretty quickly.

A-Rod hit a milestone homer over the weekend but his wife wasn't there - she was just pulling into the parking lot. Gasp! See, nobody would know or care if he played for the Jays...

And 36-year-old Jason Giambi, who loves the city of Oakland and playing with his brother, will be in Toronto today. He'll almost certainly be activated no later than tomorrow, at which point he'll enter the lineup and create a huge logjam of powerful lefties who should really all be DHing. My guess is that big Shelley Duncan will be sent to Scranton when that happens.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Advance Scout: Yankees, August 6-8 | 116 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mick Doherty - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#172611) #

The Yanks are 61-50, with a Pythagorean W/L of 68-43, while the Red Sox are 68-43, with a Pythagorean W/L of 69-52.

These two teams are very evenly matched. If Clemens/Pettitte/Wang/Mussina/Hughes is up to the task, this could be quite a battle coming through September.

The Jays, incidentally, are 56-54 (59-51), so underplaying their performance, but not nearly as badly as the Yanks are.

Leko - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#172612) #

This is going to be a real statement series for the Jays.  Being 5 games back, they have the opportunity to either jump right into the wild card race with a series win, or be knocked out with a sweep. 

It will be interesting to see if they play with that sense of urgency. 

jeff mcl - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#172613) #
I might get my hopes up if MLB schedulers decided to allow the Jays to play their final 50 games at home.   Since that can't happen,  I'm approaching this series as a "let's screw the Yankees!" rather than a "let's get ourselves back in contention" sort of deal.
NDG - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#172616) #
Coming into this game I thought to myself that 'rookie nibbler vs Yankee aura' could get ugly really fast.  I have to give Litsch a lot of credit.  He didn't get many close calls (just as I expected), but really battled his way through.  Really there was no reason to pull Litsch in the sixth.  Abreu took two pitches that looked like strikes but were called balls, and A-Rods hit wasn't hit hard and was hit right where McDonald should normally be (why was he so far towards second on that play, surely it was Hill to cover second on a steal attempt no??).

Manhattan Mike - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#172617) #
Vernon Wells should not be hitting third in the Jays lineup. Period. End of story.
Chuck - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#172618) #

I'm about the last Vernon Wells apologist you'll find on this site, but he does have a 900 OPS against LHP this year, so today at least made somse sense.

Now, his 700 OPS vs. RHP is definitely a problem...

Mike Green - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#172619) #
In the last 29 days (BR gives us 28 days), Mariano Rivera has made 11 appearances and thrown 12 innings, allowing 7 hits, no walks and , no homers while striking out 17.  He was knocked all over the ballpark in April, but since then has been his old familiar self.  Today's 9th inning was a classic example, as he completely overmatched Rios, Wells and Thomas.  The man's going to be 38 in November, but still throws 95 with great control and superb "secondary" pitches.  I'd love to hear a lot more about Mo and a lot less about Jeter...

Litsch pitched very well, and made only one mistake (which Rance of course pointed out before it happened).  You absolutely must throw a strike to Bobby Abreu, with a 3-2 count leading off the sixth inning and ahead 3-1.  He's not going to swing at a ball and you cannot afford to walk him.  Knowing the hitters, and working situations, is something that takes a little time. Litsch seems to have a gift for it, and his stuff is, I am quite sure, good enough. 


BigTimeRoyalsFan - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#172622) #
It simply mystifies me that Gibbons continues to keep Wells in a 3-4-5 spot in the order. He seems to come up every game with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs and has virtually no chance at driving him in, because Ks, infield popups and infield grounders don't do the job. I understand he has a good career track record and we all know he can be much better than this, but let it start to happen before you plug him in the heart of the order every single night. Something has got to give. He was excelling as the leadoff hitter and you already screwed that up by taking him out, so if it's not going to be #1 and let Reed bat #2, the guy has to drop down to at LEAST #6. Let's assume Reed is the leadoff hitter (even though his #s aren't great yet this year), and look at how the Jays order should be stacked, judged solely on this season's #s.

.264 .321 .364 Reed
.250 .340 .424 Lyle
.300 .357 .527 Alex
.255 .370 .453 Frank
.259 .354 .469 Troy
.275 .328 .447 Aaron
.259 .315 .438 Vernon
.250 .336 .404 Gregg
.274 .290 .363 John

Back to Vernon - he just looks so awful at the plate, and I really think it is because he is trying too hard. He knows that all those expectations come with the contract, and he is trying to live up to it, but he can't. It's not his fault that JP gave him all that $ and it's not his fault that his manager continues to bat him in the heart of the order where the expectations are raised. Let's ignore the fact he makes 127m and put him where it makes sense in the order. Stop managing to $ signs Gibbons. Now I'm not sure if this is beef with Brantley or with Vernon, but I'm assuming it's just with Vernon because there is no way Mickey doesn't tell him before every game to concentrate on laying off those fastballs high up in the zone with 2 strikes. It's ridiculous - they do it every single time and he still strikes out, or else hits a pathetic infield pop up. GET HIM THE HECK OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP. There is no reason for him to be batting ahead of guys like Aaron Hill, who has hit the ball hard consistently all season.
Jabes - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#172623) #
Haven't we had enough of the Yankees coming into T.O. and treating us like an afterthought?  Of course we'll lose when the middle of the order, time after time, can't even put the lumber on the ball.  How long have we been waiting for the middle of the order to come alive?  Vernon Wells ABs today were horrible, maybe he needs to be moved down in the order or back into the lead off spot.  The rotation and the bullpen has been awesome and it's going to be wasted.

Maybe the hitting coach needs to be fired to send a message, but for god sakes do something.
Jabes - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#172624) #
I also just read Overbay is playing hurt, which accounts for his lousy production.  Why not start Matt Stairs in important games like this then?  Did Zaun NEED a day off today?
JustinD - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#172625) #
I'll tell you who I'm most frustrated with after this loss. It's not Wells. How could I possibly be frustrated with him? He just did what he's been doing all season. It's hard to get mad at a dog for shedding, thats what they do. Vernon Wells I'm not mad at. No. It's Aaron Hill that I'm mad at. He just had to hit that home run, bring it within a run and give me hope. I was all set to leave the TV knowing the Jays had given away a game. But he had to hit that homer, make things interesting. So I sat there and watched the Jays look futile at the plate instead of getting on with my day. Thanks for nothing Hill.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#172626) #
Gibbons woke up this morning and had a choice. Where to bat Vernon. So he sees Petitte is on the mound, gets excited, and bats Vernon #3. Let's examine some of his options.

.304 .377 .667 as a #1
.228 .292 .365 as a #3
.359 .350 .564 as a #5

Um, DUH. Is this not as obvious to everyone as it looks to me? And those stats in the #3 spot are with 267 plate appearances. Vernon Wells batting #3 all season is the sole reason the Jays are 5+ out of the playoffs, EVEN with all the injuries and shit that has gone down this year.
CaramonLS - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#172627) #
Wells:  .239/.290/.418 (708)
Glaus:  .240/.331/.404 (735)
Thomas: .241/.353/.416 (769)

What are these numbers?  Our 'big hitters' vs. RHP of course.  We keep our team leader in OPS vs. RHP sitting on the bench now (Stairs), who by far, leads the team with a .896 OPS, with Rios as the only other the player checking in at an OPS vs. RH above .769.  So if you're wondering why the heck the Jays aren't hitting with RISP?  Just remember that these guys have some pretty darn awful split stats.  This is what you get when you build a team primarily out of right handed batters.
ahitisahit - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#172628) #

The Yankees are quite simply a better team than the Blue Jays. Rance said something to the effect of there being 2 or 3 times in a game when each team has the opportunity to win the game, and the team that performs in those situations will win. The Yankees continually perform in these situation vs the Jays.

Did Frank Thomas honestly think he was getting ball 4 called in the bottom of the 9th against Rivera? The guy just mowed down 2 hitters, and he has the reputation to get the benefit of the doubt every time. Get the bat off your shoulder!

I said last series that the Jays "pee themselves" against the Yankees every series, and today's game was no exception. Of course they were able to beat the Yankees in April and May, they were awful. When the chips are down, the Yankees know how to win and the Jays don't. Enjoy October Bronx Bombers.

scottt - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#172629) #
Listch was impressive for several reasons:

1. Last time he faced the yankees he got hammered hard.
2. The ump wasn't giving him anything.
3. He went after A-Rod for the overdue payback.
4. He battled with runners on base every inning.
5. He struck out 4--all on missed swings since they ump would not called a third strike all game long.

Maybe when they're done with the steroids, they should have a look at game fixing.

I was very disappointed when I saw Wells batting third.
I would have given Luna a shot a first.
Another good game for Thigpen.

Anybody predicted a Downs meltdown? 

CaramonLS - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#172630) #
Back to Vernon - he just looks so awful at the plate, and I really think it is because he is trying too hard. He knows that all those expectations come with the contract, and he is trying to live up to it, but he can't. It's not his fault that JP gave him all that $ and it's not his fault that his manager continues to bat him in the heart of the order where the expectations are raised. Let's ignore the fact he makes 127m and put him where it makes sense in the order. Stop managing to $ signs Gibbons. Now I'm not sure if this is beef with Brantley or with Vernon, but I'm assuming it's just with Vernon because there is no way Mickey doesn't tell him before every game to concentrate on laying off those fastballs high up in the zone with 2 strikes. It's ridiculous - they do it every single time and he still strikes out, or else hits a pathetic infield pop up. GET HIM THE HECK OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP. There is no reason for him to be batting ahead of guys like Aaron Hill, who has hit the ball hard consistently all season.

I agree with you BTRF, Wells simply isn't making the adjustments he needs to make. Striking out/infield popups on high fastballs or ground out/missing on low/outside breaking balls/sliders. These guys keep pitching him the exact same way, and instead of maybe taking some high fastballs and just sitting/leaning out on say, a slider away and slashing it for a single/double, he just keeps whiffing. It is getting more irritating because he keeps doing it again and again.  The same problems.
Alex Obal - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#172631) #
These guys keep pitching him the exact same way

It's so true. The book is out. He hardly gets any first-pitch fastballs, and I'm pretty sure every team in the league thinks he's very uncomfortable hitting deep in the count. So they figure he'll be overaggressive and aim to exploit that at every turn. It's been a bulletproof strategy this year.
Mike Green - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#172632) #
Wells' bete noire is the pop-up. It always has been.  The one plus about having him leadoff is it encourages him to focus on reaching base, i.e drawing walks and hitting ground balls and line drives, at least in the first at-bat.  Obviously, there are other things that a hitting coach can do to help him address his problem. 
CaramonLS - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#172633) #
So should Mickey Brantley be fired then?  This has gone on for about 100 games now this season without any adjustments.  Do we have an inept hitting coach who isn't recognizing the problems?  I mean to your general fan, the problems are becoming quite obvious now - as a hitting coach, you're supposed to catch these things before the fans do, long before - and before the rest of the league does too.
GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#172634) #
It will be interesting to see if they play with that sense of urgency.

I'm asking a serious question here.  What does this mean? 

Don't pitchers always try to throw the best possible pitch?
Don't hitters always try to get on base or make a productive out?
Don't fielders always try to make the play when the ball is hit to them?
CaramonLS - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#172635) #
I'm asking a serious question here.  What does this mean? 

Don't pitchers always try to throw the best possible pitch?
Don't hitters always try to get on base or make a productive out?
Don't fielders always try to make the play when the ball is hit to them?


It depends where you think the game starts and ends.  Are you watching the game, watching what a certain pitcher is throwing and his tendencies? Are you breaking down video of what you did wrong/right in the previous games and watching some recent game footage of the pitcher?  Are you getting yourself mentally focused, eating right?

In my opinion that all fuels the mentality of confidence, if you've done those things at the very least, even if you don't benefit from any of them, you can feel confident and get in the right frame of mind, which in a sense, is urgency.  Maybe urgency just isn't the right word though.  Maybe the question should really be: Are you making sure you will be playing your best when you step up to the plate/on the mound/play the field?
groove - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#172636) #
It will be interesting to see if they play with that sense of urgency.

I think we like to believe that our heros have that extra gear, that next level that they can turn on when they need it most.  It certainly seems that way when things go well.  It's also nice to believe that if your team wants it more it will find a way to win, but we all know that both teams want to win.  I have no problem looking at this sentence above and interpreting it to mean this is an important series.  We want our team to win it badly, so we hope that they do too. 

And they can actually play any more "urgently" if that means keeping the pedal down when the games are seemingly out of hand.  And yes, if we were leading 9-2 against the Yanks for example I wouldn't want them to let up one bit, though if it was against the Devil Rays l would probably switch to another channel.

GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#172637) #
I wouldn't want them to let up one bit....

How does a baseball team letup?  I can see it in hockey where you can skate up and down your wing and not exert maximum effort.

I just don't think any of this applies to baseball.  When Troy Glaus goes up to the plate he doesn't think, well we're winning 7-3, so I don't really need to get a hit.

I just think the majority of baseball fans don't really understand the true nature of the game.  When the Jays win 5 in a row they aren't trying harder, or even playing better.  It's the natural fluctuations of a baseball season. 

Why does a starting pitcher give up 8 runs against a team, and then shut them down 5 days later?  IMO it's 80% pure blind luck.  Maybe he makers a higher percentage of quality pitches, but overall bat to ball contact is so fickle, that there is a HUGE amount of luck involved.

If a team goes into the 9th down by a run there is nothing they can do to "try harder" or "care more"  It just comes down to trying their best (as they always should be) and if they get those runs or run is probably 70% how good the closer is, and 30% just basically luck.

Again, this isn't hockey where the effort level fluctuates quite a bit and is at its highest in the playoffs.  Baseball is about repetition, and 4 or 5 game winning or losing streaks have virtually nothing to do with "degree of urgency" or "wanting it more"

This is all my opinion, and of course I could be completely out to lunch.
GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#172639) #
This might not be an apt comparison, but let me compare baseball to poker.

I've been playing quire seriously for about 4 years, and am a long term winner at the game.  (mostly online)

Where the comparison lies is in the long term nature of both games.  There is a lot of luck in poker in the short term, but over the course of say 2000 hours of play, the luck evens out and the best players win the money.

But let's say I'm going to play over the next 3 days against competition that is close to my level.  No matter how hard I try, how mentally prepared I am, how much I concentrate, it is entirely possible for me to lose money each of those 3 days.  Conversely, I can be watching TV, surfing the net, and listening to music while playing and win each of the 3 days.

Let's compare this to baseball.  You can have Santana vs Edwin Jackson and it can be a very important game for the Twins.  Is it guaranteed that the Twins win this game?  Of course not.  The Twins could hit in extremely bad luck, Santana can make one bad pitch, and the Rays could win.  That's why baseball has a 162 game season, which might not even be a significant enough sample size.  Baseball playoffs are a complete joke, but that's a different topic.

Look at the standings this year.  Take out the Sox and Rays, and the other 28 teams are separated by not a huge amount of games.

I'm rambling here, but the bottom line is that there is nothing the Jays can do in these 3 games that constitutes "wanting it more"  The sample size is so small, that in reality anything can happen.

GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#172640) #
And they can actually play any more "urgently" if that means keeping the pedal down when the games are seemingly out of hand.

One more comment, and then I'll shut up :)

To me, this is a completely absurd statement.  How does a baseball team "keep the pedal down"?

Let's say it's the bottom of the 7th inning and the Jays are winning 6-3.  How is the approach the hitters use different than if the Jays are behind 6-3.  Does Reed Johnson have the score of the game in his head when he is facing the Yankee pitcher?

His approach only varies based on the adjustments he is trying to make according to the pitcher he is facing.  The score of the game doesn't really matter.  He is trying to get on base.  What should he do differently to "keep the pedal down"?  I don't get that at all.
groove - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#172641) #
You can rest your regular players, put in your backups, pull your starter and put in the long relief mop-up crew, not play the platoon advantage, let the opposing team steal bases uncontested.. I can keep going on and on if you want. 

DepecheJay - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#172642) #
Greg, you are forgetting that MLB players are HUMAN.  I've played baseball all the way through portions of college and I'll tell you I hustled my ass off.  However, there were just some at-bats where I would lack any type of focus at all or any type of plan at the plate.  There would be situations where I would just naturally care more than others.  I know most baseball players tend to get complacent when leading games by even the most decent of margins.  This is at the dish and in the field. 

Keeping the pedal down and all those other corny sayings actually hold weight.  The best teams I've played for have always been assembled with a bunch of guys that straight up bust their asses and stay focused for the full duration of a 9 inning game.  It's VERY hard to find these types of players but some teams value it more than others. 

Just because they get paid to play the game doesn't mean there are times where they simply could care less.  No matter how much heart they have.

GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#172643) #
Greg, you are forgetting that MLB players are HUMAN.

Very good point.  I guess my main point is that no matter how much you bust your butt, the nature of baseball is such that short term results are dependent on the luck factor much more than in the other professional sports.
TamRa - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#172644) #

A lot of professonal athletes speak of being "in the zone" when things seem to just come easier for them....none of them can really explain what it is but all describe it as a feeling of having hightened abilities.

I'm not sure there is such a thing as being "in the zone" as a team, but there certainly seems to be times when good team - playoff caliber teams - APPEAR to be "in the zone".

Those are those times when they play like the best team ever for acouple of weeks in a row and win 14 of 17 or something like that. that's the one thing that has been missing from the psedo-contender Jays of the last few years, they never get, as a team, "in the zone" - while other teams do and they get left behind.

I personally think that it is the absence of such hot streaks that keeps the Jays from playing meaningful Septemeber games, AND is responsible for the impression by some fans that they don't know how to "utrn it up a notch" when they need too...even if that conclusion is just an illusion.

 

GregJP - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#172645) #
I personally think that it is the absence of such hot streaks that keeps the Jays from playing meaningful Septemeber games, AND is responsible for the impression by some fans that they don't know how to "utrn it up a notch" when they need too...even if that conclusion is just an illusion.

I think that it's an illusion.

I think what it comes down to is that the Yankees and Sox are able to have such streaks because of their overall better talent level.

With better talent at most positions it increases the odds of the collective group playing well at the same time.

I don't really buy a team "being in a zone" or good hitting being contagious.  I'm pretty sure if you took the 3-4-5 hitters on a team  and plotted their performance game by game you wouldn't find a very  high correlation as far  them hitting well during the same game.
Manhattan Mike - Monday, August 06 2007 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#172646) #

I'm pretty sure if you took the 3-4-5 hitters on a team  and plotted their performance game by game you wouldn't find a very  high correlation as far  them hitting well during the same game.

Exactly. But teams with "better" top hitters hit well during the same game more often, obviously.

Which brings me back to my original point: after 110 games or so played in 2007, is Vernon Wells one of the Jays top three hitters? Methinks not.

So why is he still hitting third? Because he's getting paid a lot of money? Because he's most comfortable there? Whatever the reason that I can think of, it doesn't seem to be good enough. He's simply not productive there. As such, he should be moved - even if it's a temporary move.

westcoast dude - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#172648) #

Josh the Stopper vs. the Rocket. I've been waiting for a game like this all year. Yesterday's game?  Forget about it, Jake, it's Yankeetown. So nice to see a crisp inning-ending 3-4-3 double play. I hope we see Thigpen as a late inning defensive catcher today and every day.

 

Manhattan Mike - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#172654) #
What irks me is the number of Yankee fans in the RC. Listening to the game on the radio at work, you hear the roar of the crowd when something happens (before the broadcasters catch up) and your first instinct is that something good happened for Les Jays. Then you realize it's Yankee fans cheering. Uch!
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#172656) #
Maybe if more people like you, "Manhattan" Mike, would make an effort to get down to the stadium and cheer you wouldn't have such a complaint. I'm just curious Mr. Big City - how many Jays games have you been to this year? If it is anything less than 5 right now, please don't rail on other Jays fans for their "silence". At least they show up.
jsut - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#172657) #
So you want more Jays fans that live in NY to come to the game?  I don't get it.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#172658) #
I want Jays fans that I know have the means to make it to a couple more games a year to do so.

And definitely not to hear them complain about attendance.

jsut - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#172660) #
You do realize that Manhattan Mike actually does live in New York right?  I'm not sure he falls into the category of people who could easily make it out to a few more games.  Anyway, i agree with you both, more people should get out to games, and drown out the yankee fans.  I'm doing my part tonight.
Jevant - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#172664) #
My thoughts after reading this thread?

"Teams with more better players win more games."

Tongue-in-cheek.  Sorry, couldn't resist.  I think your point is well made.  No insult intended, just some light humour on a Tuesday afternoon after a long weekend.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#172666) #
You do realize that Manhattan Mike actually does live in New York right?  I'm not sure he falls into the category of people who could easily make it out to a few more games.

Yes, I'm aware. I've even been to his apartment before! How cool is that?!?!

And he can easily make it out to a few more games.
grjas - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#172668) #
Vernon Wells batting #3 all season is the sole reason the Jays are 5+ out of the playoffs, EVEN with all the injuries and shit that has gone down this year.

Well no it's not the only reason, though no question it is one of the key ones. But one of the other big reason worries me more- Frank Thomas batting 4th or 5th with a RISP, B/A and power numbers in the toilet most of the season.   Add in his age (39), recent history (1 good year in 4), zero defensive contribution, and large commitment next year, and you end up with the biggest blight in the Jays 2008 hopes.

Unless of course Ted Rogers really does have an open wallet...
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#172669) #
At least he has shown, with his 9rbi over the last 4 games, a glimpse of how he can hit when he gets hot. And a quick glance at Thomas' 06 splits shows a 2nd half monster. I haven't seen anything out of Vernon this year to think he can turn it around for next (and be a superstar), save for maybe one good week out of 16 that he actually drove the ball to the outfield.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#172670) #

Jamie Campbell: Please, please, please look up Abreu's hitting history. Please stop characterizing him as a once power hitter who used to "carry the Phillies for weeks at a time". He only cracked the 20:1 AB:HR ratio twice in his career, and both times just barely. Is it that homerun derby you're thinking of?

Abreu has been a tremendous and underrated offensive player, don't get me wrong, what with a broad arsenal of skills: high batting average, a ton of walks, a lot of doubles, high SB ratio and 20ish HR. But he's not the man you keep portraying him as.

Thomas - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#172671) #
Bravo, Josh.
CSHunt68 - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#172672) #

Keep whining, A-Rod. Whatta baby! lol

Nice bruise. Hope your (soon-to-be-ex-) wife enjoys half your money. :)

Seriously, how old is this guy? Twelve?

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#172673) #
It's simply incomprehensible that Gibbons continues to bat Wells in the middle of the lineup. Drop him down in the order and take the pressure off so he stops trying to justify the albatross contract he received.
Thomas - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#172674) #
Also, I was at yesterday's game, so I didn't get a good look at it, but it seemed to me that A-Rod's hard slide into second was completely unnecessary on a force out. Am I wrong in thinking this? I understand the hard slide to break up a double play, but what point other than attempting to force an injury is there in sliding in hard on a force at second?
Thomas - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#172675) #
Ignore the post above. I was mixing up plays. Rodriguez was trying to break up a double play, so I won't hold that slide against him.

Anyway, he's still a jerk.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#172676) #
Royals Fan, check out Wells' career stats if you really need an answer.

Also take some consolation from the fact that studies have shown that the #3 spot is one of the least important in the lineup since it ends up in the most low-leverage situations. (sorry, I really don't remember which studies - maybe someone else knows the answer to this?)
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#172677) #
"The Book" suggests that the most important slots in the order are the #1, #2, #4, and #5.  The reason is simple- the #3 hitter comes up roughly 50% of the time in the first inning with two out and nobody on. 
westcoast dude - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#172678) #
Overbay has gone cold, so why isn't Stairs playing first and batting fifth? Towers Fall To Rocket. should be the headline.
scottt - Tuesday, August 07 2007 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#172679) #
"The Book" suggests that the most important slots in the order are the #1, #2, #4, and #5.  The reason is simple- the #3 hitter comes up roughly 50% of the time in the first inning with two out and nobody on. 

Maybe it's too simple, because I don't see what that has to do with anything. Unless there is a guy standing at third, why does it matter how many outs there are? You want your best hitter to hit with runners in scoring position and you want him to get the most at bats. For the %50 of the time the #3 hitter comes up with the bases empty, you want someone who can hit a double, that means Hill, Rios, or Wells. Hill hasn't produced hitting first or second, so he's left at the bottom.

The problem right now has a lot to do with Glauss.
VBF - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#172680) #
If I'm Gibbons,I think I'm at the point with Wells where I un-angrily move Overbay and Wells to 6th and 7th spots in the order. Sorry guys, but moving you around isn't doing anything. Learn to hit down there and you'll be up when you get that figured out. Wells is killing this thing right now.

Forget me clamouring for A-Rod. I forgot all about his womanly antics. Sacrificing the integrity of this team is not worth it. I can't cheer for that.

The following players shall be etched in Jays lore:

-Josh Towers, because you are a fearless sparrow.
-Matt Stairs, who will always give a damn.
-Ernie Whitt who isn't going to take no guff.
-Casey Janssen and Brandon League. For jumping from the bullpen seats and over the outfield fence to run and help your teammates.

It sucks when you lose a game that you wore your pride on your forehead but all that is good in the world will be again, when Roy Halladay takes the mound tomorrow.

And congratulations Barry Bonds on your 756th home run. Keeping hitting them for years to come. Hold that record and don't let anyone get close.

subculture - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#172682) #
1)  Totally agree with Wells subpar season costing the Jays a number of games this year... but his week or so leading off gave a glimpse of how good he is when actually hitting the ball.  Right now, he seems to approach every pitch as if he's down 2 strikes... I feel like catchers read him very easily, and know how to throw him whatever he's not expecting.  I think his mental approach has not developed like everyone hoped... I thought Thomas would rub off on Well's and make him more patient at the plate...  But if not Well's at #3, then who? 

2)  The talk by JC about sending down Frasor when Burnett comes back gave me the chills... Towers is the obvious candidate in my eyes.  How many games has this guy lost in the last year and a half?  He's a #5 pitcher on a team like the Royals... NOT a contender!  And how much does Rios appreciate his bravado in tonights game hitting A-Rod?  I think Clemens was an idiot too, but Towers must have known that he'd get somebody hit on his own team.

3)  I'm optimistic about the Jays simply b/c their young pitching is looking great... and nobody's even mentioned Chacin in a long while, a guy who IS a great #5 on a contender.

VBF - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#172683) #
What irks me is the number of Yankee fans in the RC. Listening to the game on the radio at work, you hear the roar of the crowd when something happens (before the broadcasters catch up) and your first instinct is that something good happened for Les Jays. Then you realize it's Yankee fans cheering. Uch!

Meh.

1. They do this in every stadium except perhaps one. Maybe two.
2. They don't outnumber us.
3. We don't take any guff from those guys. Unless you've got a 10 meter radius of Yankee fans, you're gonna get chirped.

I've used the word guff twice tonight. Time for sleep.



BigTimeRoyalsFan - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#172687) #
3)  I'm optimistic about the Jays simply b/c their young pitching is looking great... and nobody's even mentioned Chacin in a long while, a guy who IS a great #5 on a contender.

Chacin has been downright awful for 2 seasons now, with a 5.15era and 1.43whip. Litsch and Janssen should both be ahead of him on the depth charts, and if you asked me, Towers too. I hope this guy doesn't sniff the Jays rotation next year. I see him as the perfect #7 reliever in your pen, a guy who can actually have some usefulness pitching 3x a month, unlike Jason Frasor.
krose - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#172689) #
Batting Wells in the three or four hole has not been productive. Many of us have noticed that and commented on Wells' inability to drive in runs. I have thought, for some time, that there are a number of other shortcomings with the line up card. Some of the other difficulties are; staying with Thomas and Glaus in RBI slots for too long when they are not productive, failing to use Stairs to balance a right handed heavy line up, keeping Aaron Hill at the bottom of the line up when he was the second hottest hitter.

I thought that today's game may have demonstrated a new and even more profound problem with the Jay's team. I think that some key players may have quit on John Gibbons. JG has never demonstrated a propensity for communicating. Not only do his interviews demonstrate weakness in ability to use the English language, but they suggest a problem with getting his ideas across. (Witness the way the Hildenbrand and Lilly situations were handled.) While Gibbons has been successful at keeping some issues in the clubhouse, I think that Josh Towers has provided "leakage" that points to the team's frustration. Towers said as much last weak when he hinted that some players are not playing as hard as they could. Today's game may have been a manifestation of the truth of those comments. Tower's made his latest statement when he hit ARod. (That plunking was not just about the "MINE" incident from several weeks ago. It was also about the Stairs plunking from the night before.) The Jays players came to Tower's defense as they must. However, later in the game when there should have been a positive emotional response the team showed even less life than before ARod was plunked. Wells misplayed two balls in centre field and Rios misplayed one in right field. At the plate there seemed to be no plan of attack. Rios and Overbay have joined Wells and Glaus in NeverNeverLand.

Meanwhile, JG sits at the end of the bench looking as lost as John MacDonald on a 95 MPH fastball (or as lost as Wells and Glaus on just about any pitch). Any time the camera is on him, JG is alone. He is never communicating with any of his coaches or his players. He turns in the same predicable line up card each night with pretty much the same results. The only thing that seems to have changed is the level of alienation of the manager, and recently, the level of effort of some of the players.

This is a very harsh assessment. There is some evidence pointing to a team in more than a slump. I hope I'm wrong. If I'm not, and the problem(s) are not addressed, this team will not be fun to watch for the rest of the year. What do others think?
Dave Till - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#172694) #
I've read studies that show that changing around the batting order doesn't make all that much difference. Gibbons might as well keep everybody in their accustomed lineup spots.

I can't tell whether the players aren't trying hard enough for Gibbons - I'm not in the clubhouse. My guess is that some players, especially Wells, are trying too hard. But that's just a guess.

I think that Towers rates ahead of Chacin - Gus may never pitch for the Jays again. But Towers wouldn't be of much help in the bullpen - he's vulnerable to the home run. He belongs in the starting rotation in a homer-hostile ball park.

I watched the important bits of last night's game this morning (I had it on tape). The shots of Matt Stairs sitting on top of the Gatorade cooler on the top step of the dugout, glaring at Alex Rodriguez, were priceless.

RhyZa - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#172696) #

I can see why Yank fans are all riled up about Towers' comments about Pena (there seems to be history there or who knows what was said on the field by Pena) but boy there 'post game comment' thread on nyyfans.com is just ridiculously one sided and nauseating.  It's like grade 3 all over again.

Must win game today.  Pride is at stake.

grjas - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#172698) #
Lord are the Jays dull when behind early. How about a bit of heart guys... (and no plunking A-Hole 3 mos. after the fact in your own backyard doesn't cut it..)


What was most interesting about the game was how aggressive the Yankees game plan was despite an offence that was already red hot. Two bunt attempts in an inning, aggressive base running, hit and runs, timely steals. This team (and manager!) doesn't sit on its collective butt awaiting a three run homer.  JG- are you listening... oh what's the point.

RhyZa - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#172699) #

err that should read 'their' of course.  I can't believe I did that, but it is early.

But to re-iterate at least on sosh I can get a few laughs to go along with their whining.

DepecheJay - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#172715) #
So the Jays try and be the tough guys and teach A-Rod something, only to get their asses handed to them by those same Yankees.  Great.  Last night's performance was what I'd expect from a team that has given up.  Count me in the bandwagon to get Gibbons out of Toronto.  He really does absolutely nothing during the course of a game.  Same lineup, same coca-cola can in hand, same sitting alone, same results.  Perpetually 500.  This team needs a breath of fresh-air and they need it soon.  If Ricciardi is serious about keeping the same exact squad together for next year, I can promise you that this team will yet again be a 500. team. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#172718) #
It's obvious what needs to be done.  John Gibbons needs to stop drinking Coke and try Pepsi instead.
westcoast dude - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#172719) #

Towers, like Icarus, got a little too close to the sun. Check out Bob Dylan's "Foot of Pride" on The Bootleg Series, Volumes 1--3, Josh. Part of the lore, yes, but out of the rotation, please. We know JG can't communicate, let's see if he has backbone to DFA him.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#172721) #

We know JG can't communicate, let's see if he has backbone to DFA him.

Gibbons would have no authority to do so.

subculture - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#172731) #

I'd agree that Janssen and possibly Litsch (too early to say for sure) are more valuable than Chacin, but there's no way in hell I'd ever put Towers ahead of him...  I know stats might indicate otherwise, but my eyes tell me Chacin knows how to WIN games.  Towers seems too focused on trying to establish himself in the clubhouse, as a major leaguer, as a guy who looks out for his teammates, as a guy with good enough stuff, etc... he should put all that energy into actually winning a game! 

Towers has a great game once in a while, but then has real stinkers where the jays have no shot.  Chacin almost always gives the team a chance to win, and I think everyone values that.  Chacin, 25-15 lifetime... Towers, 45-54.

SPLIT G IP H R HR BB SO W L Sv P/GS WHIP BAA ERA

Career 58 331.2 340 165 45 118 185 25 15 0 91.9 1.38 .268 4.18

Career 133 718.0 868 433 122 120 381 45 54 1 86.6 1.38 .299 4.95

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#172733) #

The sports section at the Globe & Mail website has a poll on who should be dropped from the rotation when Burnett comes back. I assume this is intended as some sort of sanity test.

Incidentally, there were 7 votes each for dropping McGowan and Marcum.

 

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#172736) #
I know stats might indicate otherwise, but my eyes tell me Chacin knows how to WIN games.

You should get them checked. Teams win ballgames, not pitchers. If it were up to me Wins, Losses, and Saves would all be abolished from the stat book. I can't stand how managers manage games with those stats in mind.
AWeb - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#172738) #
Assuming the Jays don't pitch McGowan full out until the end of the season, and since he's at 127 IP so far, after post-injury years of about 100 and 110, one hopes he doesn't pile up 200 IP this year, I don't know if I'd oppose removing him from the rotation after, say, the end of August. Now might be too soon, but it's not a completely silly idea.

As for Chacin, he has a long track record of out-performing his peripheral stats in the minors and the majors. Call it smoke and mirrors or "clutch" pitching (career 800 OPS against with no one on, 750 with men on base, 595 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position), but he has done reasonably well despite his obvious failings.  While not crazy about him, and knowing he poses a large injury risk and shouldn't be counted on, if he returns to full strength, I wouldn't be opposed to him getting another crack at the rotation (maybe take a few McGowan starts in September?).

Bid - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#172739) #

"Check out Bob Dylan's "Foot of Pride" on The Bootleg Series, Volumes 1--3, Josh." Or even better, Lou Reed's incendiary version on the Bob-fest video.

We were at this frustrating and fascinating game. What sticks with me is McDonald's defensive gems, the Posada throw-outs; Lyle scooping absolutely everything, yet diving like a nervous statue at two shots over the bag--this man has a very sore hand, and so must Zaun whose swings seem very long for him. I had hoped Stairs might bat for Zaunie in the seventh, however  much of an insult that could have seemed.

But  I came away with respect for the Yankee game plan: don't try to kill Towers' dinky offerings--just line 'em to the outfield. And we wondered if Torre's decision to have Cabrera bunt with a four-run-lead  had a whiff of the deep woods to it, or as a Yankoid twit behind us suggested, "Joe's getting him a single for the cycle." Geez.

Mostly tho I thought about Roger, who wasn't really all that good, but who got a major assist from umpire Cousins for his assortment of sub-patellar heaters, and a ridiculous deference on the mound after he plugged Alex--Cousins did everything short of lick him...right there on the Jumbotron. Hey! No discussion, Roger...get off the field.

Oh, and if Damon could bunt, he'd make a fine DH.

 

subculture - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#172742) #

You should get them checked. Teams win ballgames, not pitchers. If it were up to me Wins, Losses, and Saves would all be abolished from the stat book. I can't stand how managers manage games with those stats in mind.

Well, gee my EYES showed me Chacin getting more wins and keeping his team in more games than losses.. and funny enough the stats back that up.  Did YOUR eyes not pick that up?  Maybe you feel that playoff teams should be decided by run differential instead of actual WINS? 

And as much as I also love my stats, I also realize that my 30mins a day spent thinking about Jays strategy might not always give me a better perspective than the Jays coaches, GM, staff etc who do this as a fulltime job... so I tend to give them some credit for going with a pitcher who they might FEEL gives them a better chance to win regardless of what the stats say.

And how about stats like ERA?  and opponent batting average?  should those go out the window because Chacin is superior to Towers?

 

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#172743) #

Chacin has always been a good pitcher when he's been healthy. Even last year, he had a decent April and a strong September. Some players are able to succeed without the peripheral numbers people think they should have.

Of course, he really can't be counted on to be healthy at this point, so we'll have to see what happens. I'd say he deserves a shot at the rotation, but he's going to have some competition from Litsch and Janssen. (at least, I hope Janssen)

ScottTS - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#172744) #

"Check out Bob Dylan's "Foot of Pride" on The Bootleg Series, Volumes 1--3, Josh."

Look , Towers was *not* very good last night - his control wasn't great, and he kept leaving pitches up, with predictable results - but it seems like a lot to ask for him (or just about anybody) to beat the Yankees when the team behind him couldn't muster more than 3 hits in 6 innings, and only scored 2 runs the entire game. He's gotten lousy run support this year, but then so have most of the Jays starters.

 Not to mention that the bullpen coughed up 5 runs on its own, after Josh had been yanked.

Mostly tho I thought about Roger, who wasn't really all that good, but who got a major assist from umpire Cousins for his assortment of sub-patellar heaters

To my eyes, it wasn't just Clemens who was getting the benefit of the doubt - Tallet got absolutely *robbed* on a beautiful 3-2 pitch to Damon which loaded the bases, and then threw what looked like 5 strikes to Jeter (only two of which were actually called), and then got robbed again in the next inning when he fooled Cano on a 3-2 pitch (it looked to me like Cano clearly went around), which was again called a ball.

The frustrating thing was that the Yankees didn't need the benefit of the doubt - they're clearly a better team, and  the Jays were (again) completely awful at the plate.

I'm not sure what the solution is to the Jays offensive woes. It's hard to know how much to fault Gibbons - after all, it's not him up there swinging the bat . Sure, he could move Wells down in the order, but its not just Vernon - Overbay, Glaus and Thomas are all having pretty lousy years. The only  thing I think he probably should be doing is something that virtually no manager in baseball would do - platoon Thomas and Stairs at DH. That still leaves a gaping hole at shortstop (and catcher - Zaun is batting .245) and no left handed hitters on the bench, and that's not Gibbons fault.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#172746) #
Zaun was horrible in April, but he's been hitting 271/353/421 since he came back from the DL. He's not really a problem.
Bid - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#172748) #

You're right about Zaun...he had five hits in Texas, and while none against the Yanks yet, he only pinch hit the first game. Maybe it's my eyes that're sore.

About Roger not being the only one affected by official favor.  As the Yankees Steinbrenner their way to the post-season they are just as much a trial for the umpires as they are for their opponents. For some of us, too.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#172750) #
Read your quote subculture, and then my reply, and then tell me what your reply has anything to do with what I wrote. I lend absolutely zero credence to this silly notion of having a "feel" to win ballgames, and here is why - we are applauding Chacin for giving up 4 runs over 6 innings. That is not a good start, by any stretch of the imagination, win or lose. We can expect more, "5th" starter on not. Get this notion of keeping teams in ballgames out of your head - it simply does not exist. And if it does, what you are doing is applauding pitchers with a 6.00era.

GregJP - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#172751) #
I know stats might indicate otherwise, but my eyes tell me Chacin knows how to WIN games.

I would call you a moron, but this message board is far too dignified for me to direct such vitriol towards you.


Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#172752) #
Despite his struggles this year, Chacin's ERA+ is 109. For reasons described above, he has, so far in his career, allowed fewer runs than his W, K and HR rate would suggest.  The live issue with him is the effect of his injury on his performance.  Personally, I'd be happier if he started back in the pen and had some success there before he had another rotation trial.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#172753) #
Incidentally, the Jays' batting order tonight is odd.  Stairs and Overbay 1-2, followed by 5 right-handed hitters, and then Zaun and McDonald at the bottom of the order.  It does make it easy for Torre to send out left-handed relief.
CeeBee - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#172754) #
Seems to be working so far though it's only the 3rd inning.
subculture - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#172756) #
I would call you a moron, but this message board is far too dignified for me to direct such vitriol towards you.

Thanks for abstaining.   I would call you and RoyalsFan pathetic victims of kneejerk reactions to words like 'eyes' and 'feel', but I'll take the high road :)

So again, if BOTH my eyes, AND the stats, indicate that Chacin is a better pitcher than Towers, what exactly are you trying to prove?

Like life in general, there's no such black and white when it comes to judging baseball players.  If you completely discount what you see, than you're eliminating a very useful tool when evaluating a player.  Just the same way that you'd be a fool to ignore their stats...

And if you're knocking Chacin for giving up 3 runs a game, what are you saying about Towers - that he should be in the minors?  I bet you every team in MLB would gladly take 3 runs and 5-6 innings from their #5 pitcher.  That's Chacin, and unfortunately not Towers.
Seamus - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#172757) #
Wow.  Frank Thomas is really on fire.  His stats aren't even really looking that bad anymore.  The batting average is up to .265
subculture - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#172759) #
Read your quote subculture, and then my reply, and then tell me what your reply has anything to do with what I wrote. I lend absolutely zero credence to this silly notion of having a "feel" to win ballgames, and here is why - we are applauding Chacin for giving up 4 runs over 6 innings. That is not a good start, by any stretch of the imagination, win or lose. We can expect more, "5th" starter on not.

Okay, I did read them, and maybe I'm not sure which quote/reply you're referring to, but all I see is you not providing any evidence to your claim that Towers should be higher on the depth chart than Chacin.  Instead you seem intent on bashing all of the 'myths' of baseball, again without providing any actual supporting evidence.   If Tower's had a superior ERA, and opponents batting average, etc etc, I could understand where you're coming from.  In that case I would even be open to the notion that I might be wrong in my judgement.  And I'd be very happy to receive more from a 5th starter than what Chacin gives... but I'd be a fool to expect more from Towers! 

Now, if Towers goes on some great workout regimen, adds 2-3 miles to his fastball, learns the gyroball from Dice-K, and mentally matures from watching better pitchers like Halladay, and we 'see' (oops that word again) all that improvement in training camp, would you be offended if Gibbons had a 'feel' that Towers was going to have a better year?

Stats don't account for many things, such as a manager seeing somebody regain health and focus, or resolving personal issues, and *** steroid usage.  Stats don't tell you that a particular player is kicking @ss because it's his contract year - any fan can tell you that though. 

Get this notion of keeping teams in ballgames out of your head - it simply does not exist. And if it does, what you are doing is applauding pitchers with a 6.00era.

Wow, so a pitcher who is able to limit the amount of runs that the opposing team scores better than another pitcher DOES NOT EXIST?  Hahaha, surely you mean to say something else right?  Or is that how you justify Towers having a higher ERA than Chacin?  If pitcher A rarely allows the opposing team to score more than 4 runs in a game, does he not keep his team in the game?  Versus pitcher B allowing 7 runs every other game?  Yes, there's no guarantee that 4 will win and 7 will lose, but I know what I'd rather have.  And where did you get 6.00 era from?  Towers was 8.42 last year!  And you're applauding him! 
Alex Obal - Wednesday, August 08 2007 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#172760) #
Incidentally, the Jays' batting order tonight is odd.  Stairs and Overbay 1-2, followed by 5 right-handed hitters, and then Zaun and McDonald at the bottom of the order.  It does make it easy for Torre to send out left-handed relief.

I really liked this lineup, mostly because of the high OBPs immediately in front of Rios, and notwithstanding Overbay's status as one of the biggest DP threats on the team. If he's gonna bat third and a RHP is on the mound, you can't name two better hitters to put in front of him. I figure Stairs and Overbay are both going to wind up with above-.350 OBPs at the end of the year (and, one would expect, higher against righties). Indeed they might even be better OBP bets against RHPs than Glaus and Thomas. And in the 3 innings Stairs, Overbay and Rios were due up, the Jays hammered out 13 runs and batted around twice...

When Torre breaks out his lefty specialist in the late innings, he only gets the platoon edge against Overbay. Pinch-hitting Reed for Stairs is a no-brainer. If the Jays had Lind on their 25 with a six-man pen, they'd also have the luxury of batting Thigpen or Luna for Overbay and then coming back with Lind if a righty emerged from the pen. That's another issue though.
Ken Kosowan - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#172761) #
Wow... I remember the days of yore. Days when Moffatt and the Coach would discuss baseball issues without resorting to the ESPN chatboard mentalities that have slowly changed the tone of this site.

I hate to say it... but the trolls are really starting to affect this site's feel.

What happened to not having to write in upper case to emphasize for meaning?

What happened to people not trading insults instead of thoughtful analysis?

What happened to people using the forum to discuss their love of the game and the statistical analysis that came with it?

What happened to Thor's Hammer?

What happened to the Cabal? (There is no Cabal)

Anyways, that's my two cents. To those of you who have really gone for the potshots and the EPSN chatroom mentality; I'll ask you to look at the ABOUT section of the site by clicking HERE.

Whatever happened to the Roster anyways? Many seem to have left.....

Let's put the intelligent back into Batter's Box.

subculture - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#172763) #
Hey Ken, I have to assume you're including me in that statement, and I do apologize for the caps (hey, I got a little feisty, but CAPS can change the meaning of a sentence).

I actually thought I was providing thoughtful analysis, including stats and examples in each of my posts.  I was a little taken aback by being indirectly called a 'moron', who should 'get my eyes checked', and having 'silly notions'. 

So let's take this dialogue back to a more constructive level, as it's obvious by GregJP and RoyalsFan's silence that they've realized they got nothing to back up their provocative messages.

Subculture hits the walkoff homer and exits the park!




VBF - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#172764) #
Tonight, Gibbons drinking his coke and sitting alone worked. In fact, it's worked once more than it's failed this season. I really don't think that's the problem.

Tonight was well worth the price of admission, *sigh* I only wish someone, preferably Matty had hit a blast.

Four game series in Kansas City. Of course as I write this, a gazillion people will probably start bitching about how the Jays always lose against Kansas City and someone, perhaps Magpie will rightyfully sweep away this notion, which is of course false.

Burnett, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch. It's very do-able.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 01:38 AM EDT (#172765) #
subculture, i really don't want to do this with you, but since you are insistent on duking it out, let's do it. here's my original post, with your quote.

3)  I'm optimistic about the Jays simply b/c their young pitching is looking great... and nobody's even mentioned Chacin in a long while, a guy who IS a great #5 on a contender.

Chacin has been downright awful for 2 seasons now, with a 5.15era and 1.43whip. Litsch and Janssen should both be ahead of him on the depth charts, and if you asked me, Towers too. I hope this guy doesn't sniff the Jays rotation next year. I see him as the perfect #7 reliever in your pen, a guy who can actually have some usefulness pitching 3x a month, unlike Jason Frasor.

Is there anything wrong in what I said there? I didn't ever say Towers has better numbers than Chacin or anything of the sort. I just tossed in that in my opinion I'd prefer to see Towers start for the Jays than Chacin. You went on to talk about Chacin's propensity to win ballgames, and it was then and only then did I start to mock you, telling you to get your eyes checked. Why? Because you said your eyes were telling you Chacin is a "winner". I then tried pointing out to you that teams win ballgames, not players. A point you have subsequently ignored.

Please don't take the lack of a swift response as you winning, or hitting home runs out of the ballpark. I apologize for not sitting here and clicking refresh to respond to you more promptly.

CSHunt68 - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#172771) #

If it were up to me Wins, Losses, and Saves would all be abolished from the stat book.

This from a guy who used RBI to compare the offensive contribution of centerfielders?!?

;)

Mick Doherty - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#172774) #

Whatever happened to the Roster anyways? Many seem to have left.....

Some have. And others have come on board. We're still here, but living in the never-never land between letting the discussions morph naturally (and being accused of disappearing) and stepping in and directing them more often (and hearing cries of Hitler, Stalin and other labels that are less than kind).  It's a weird place to be, and unless something really crosses a line, I personally stay out of it -- I think this is true of most members of the Roster.

This publication is very much owned by its community. It's true that the nature of the discourse on Da Box has "changed" as the membership has grown, but that is bound to happen in any electronic community. The bottom line here is, anything you don't like about Batter's Box, feel free to blame Mike Green. (Just kidding. But I am all about deflecting blame to others, especially those who are unequivocally not at fault. I learn from Barry Bonds!)

ayjackson - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#172775) #

We're still here, but living in the never-never land between letting the discussions morph naturally (and being accused of disappearing) and stepping in and directing them more often (and hearing cries of Hitler, Stalin and other labels that are less than kind).

We can have good paternalistic rule without hostile dictatorship - why not a little Queen Vic???  With all our faults, we love our Roster!!  (We are not members of the common throng!)

Mike Green - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#172777) #
The bottom line here is, anything you don't like about Batter's Box, feel free to blame Mike Green

"Complaints central, your call will be answered in the order in which it was received".  Seriously, Ken Kosowan has raised a point that we do like to remind those new to da Box about.  It is important to read the "About" and "Legal/Privacy" sections of our site.  We are not a "forum" or a "message board".  We are a place for intelligent, collegial discussion of baseball, but it should be fun.
Dewey - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#172784) #
This publication is very much owned by its community.

This is pretty disingenuous, Mick–unless you are defining “community” in some special way.  Ever since the policy of having “featured” comments on this site there has been a (mild) form of de facto censorship.  Moreover, I know of at least one regular poster who was arbitrarily, and without explanation, “disappeared” from this site because his views--not his language or manner-- were deemed unacceptable by the Cabal/Roster.  (Of course, only members of the Roster are aware of this.)   At one time your “About this Site” page acknowledged that this is *not* a truly democratic site, but I see that that satement has been removed.  I am all for civility, intelligence, and eloquence; but simple intolerance of others views is cowardly.  There is, or at least used to be, some of that at work here.  Sorry.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#172790) #

I should first note, for the record, that I do not speak for the entire Roster, nor do I wish to appear to be doing so. That said, I geniunely do not recall anyone being "disappeared" from this site for reasons outside breaking the de-facto user agreement, and nobody has ever been banned or even temporarily removed without extensive conversation via e-mail.

I understand the ongoing complaints about "featured comments," and again just for the record want to note -- nobody even seemed to notice when Da Box moved from default-not-featured to default-featuring of all comments (as it is now). That was the Roster listening to the community and responding. On the current home page, there are nearly 350 comments on the stories up now, and by my count, exactly four have been de-featured. Two of those, I did myself -- because of the use of inappropriate language. I could have just as easily deleted the comments, but what would that accomplish?

And also for the record, I see that two of the last six comments I de-featured were posted by me in the first place, So I am comfortable standing by what I originally wrote.

Again, those views may or may not be shared by other members of The Roster. Incidentally, where there were originally four Roster members -- all now, coincidentally, "Retired," -- and another two or three are essentialy inactive, the "staff" has grown from that original four to now a good 20.  All of whom, I believe, were originally non-Roster "Bauxites" (including me). So "owned by the community"? Yes, indeed, it is.

 

subculture - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#172795) #

You went on to talk about Chacin's propensity to win ballgames, and it was then and only then did I start to mock you, telling you to get your eyes checked.

Lol, so, the mocking wasn't a great start was it?  Maybe you'll have a better finish.

I then tried pointing out to you that teams win ballgames, not players. A point you have subsequently ignored.

Umm... and teams are made out of players, no?  And my subsequent posts were all about how pitchers who allow fewer runs give their teams a better chance to win.  Are you trying to say that pitchers performance is not related to a team's propensity to win?  I never said that Chacin all-by-himself could defeat an opposing team...  I'd also recommend taking a look at WinShares to understand player values.

I just tossed in that in my opinion I'd prefer to see Towers start for the Jays than Chacin.

Right, and I've been waiting for ANY reasoning behind that opinion... I never wanted to get into any of this other stuff... all I wanted to know is why you believe Towers is a better option than Chacin.  Stats don't support this, and neither does their won-loss record (which I know you don't care about anyways).  Do you SEE something or have a FEELING about Towers that makes you believe this? 

subculture, i really don't want to do this with you, but since you are insistent on duking it out, let's do it.

Okay, so let's not 'duke it out', I'd just like to hear a rational explanation supporting your statements, that we can go forward with. 

"teams win ballgames, not players" - please explain

"I'd prefer to see Towers start for the Jays than Chacin." - why?

Subculture throws a challenge heater down the middle of the plate...

 

 

 

 

Dewey - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#172805) #
I see that my reply to Mick (sent a few hours ago) has not appeared, not even as an "unfeatured" comment--though others later posts have appeared.  Why is that?

Or is this simply more evidence of what I was speaking of--censorship?

Mick Doherty - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#172807) #
Dewey, you seem like a decent guy, and your comments (in other threads) on this site show depth, generally. Don't stoop to puerile conspiracy theories. My guess is that your PC didn't save the comment properly, or you hit the wrong button or somesuch. If it's still in your cache, repost it. But  try to steer clear of not-so-veiled insults.

I have never unfeatured a comment because I didn't agree with it -- only for language issues and/or for possibly legal problems (wild speculation and rumors without foundation, and/or name-calling directed at players and other MLB employees). I don't know if your post did any of that because I haven't seen it.  According to your profile, you have posted to this thread twice and both are appearing.

People who cry "censorship" at a free Internet site that is grounds for hundreds of members to post daily have no idea -- or at least no appreciation for -- what the concept means.

Dewey - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#172808) #
O.K., Mick, I'm willing to accept that, for some unexplained reason, the message was not sent/did not arrive.    In it I simply said that the banning did happen, arbitrarily and with no explanation provided.  And that repeated e-mail requests to a Roster member for an explanation went unanswered and soon were simply blocked.  Knowing of this, I trust that you will appreciate that I am *not* irresponsibly  "crying censorship".   I witnessed it, on this site.  Sad, but true.
seeyou - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#172810) #
'Rocket' suspended for 5 games: http://www.thestar.com/article/244859

Does anyone know if this means 5 games or 5 starts?  Because if that escapade is going to cost the Yankees five Roger Clemens starts, the Jays definitely came out on top of that incident.

John Northey - Thursday, August 09 2007 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#172812) #
Just 5 games so it doesn't really mean anything other than it will cost Roger a bit of cash as I don't think he gets paid during the suspension.  More a message that if the umps say don't toss at someone then you really shouldn't.
Magpie - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#172816) #
banning did happen, arbitrarily and with no explanation provided.

Those particular circumstances sound like some kind of bizarre technical accident. Because that isn't how it works around here. I don't participate very much in these particular Roster discussions, but I do see the e-mails, whether I want to or not. Lots and lots of them. Explaining what line has been crossed, requesting better behaviour, and so on and so forth.

And screw it, anyway. Some may call it censorship, but  I call it "kicking unwanted and boorish guests out of our house." The Internet is a big place, and there is no shortage of places to play, and so long as it stays that way... well, Solzhenitsyn knew censorship. But not someone who lost their posting privileges - and that's privilege, not right - at this place.
subculture - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#172827) #

Strike one!  RoyalsFan must have been taking all the way.

Subculture rears back and throws another juicy meatball right down the middle....

Dewey - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#172831) #
Whoa, this hurts.  Say it ain’t so, Magpie!

My hero has a cloven hoof.  And he seemed so generous of spirit, so tolerant and temperate, a person of such sound good sense.

This all started with my querying Mick’s assertion that “This publication is very much owned by its community.”  It’s not clear whether the “community” he means includes all of us or not. The metaphor you use is of a house, a private house, in which some are not welcome.  And you are free to kick out “unwanted and boorish guests”.  Of course, you decide what's boorish and who you want.  (The Solzhenitsyn remark is uncharacteristic of your usual good sense, right?)  And do people “lose” their posting privileges, or have them taken away?  (Ironic that the dozens of people to whom that has happened cannot now speak for themselves on this site.)  Suppose you were one of them, Magpie, and explanations had not been provided nor appeals listened to--how would you feel?

An autocratic Magpie–-who would have thought?  (Please don't go all huffy now, and take deep offense:  but I'm very surprised by the attitude you express here.  The dismissal seems so cavalier, of so little consequence--to you.)
AWeb - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#172843) #
It doesn't sound like people are kicked out without a hearing, they just take place over email (which makes sense, a thread with that sort of discussion would get ugly, quickly). Getting banned from posting at one of thousands of baseball sites does not amount to meaningful censorship, unless you've been banned from every other site already. Everyone is free to post things on the internet (it's free), but BB is by no means required, technically or ethically, to provide a free range comment area. Now, if BB had promised to do so, it's a different matter, but the rules they set down are very clear on this.

While I do miss the game threads from yesteryear (game chats are fun sometimes, though, and a great place to instantly vent on a stupid play), it was a small price to pay for a general end to the same arguments, day after day, by the same posters (i.e. JP sucks  vs No he doesn't, Hinske rules vs Hinske sucks, we should trade our bad players for other teams' stud prospects). Devolving into an ESPN-type board, full of swearing and insults, is what was happening, slowly. Occasional trolls stopped by and picked fights. I think that after the initial adjustment period, the site was better for the new comment system. Different, yes, but better.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#172848) #
Subculture - My liking of Towers over Chacin is purely personal, and has nothing to do with stats. It was also irrelevant, as I was simply just tossing Towers into the long line of starters I have on the depth chart ahead of Chacin

This discussion started because you claimed Chacin has a knack for winning. Please do not stray from that. That's all I want to discuss.

"teams win ballgames, not players" - please explain.


Please explain to me how it can be any other way.

And my subsequent posts were all about how pitchers who allow fewer runs give their teams a better chance to win.  Are you trying to say that pitchers performance is not related to a team's propensity to win?

It is. But a favorable W-L record DOES NOT predict a "propensity" to win games. It's luck. You use peripherals to gauge future performances, and as I have already pointed out, Chacin has over a 5era and 1.3whip over the last 2 seasons. He has been a BAD pitcher.
Magpie - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#172871) #
Say it ain’t so, Magpie!

That was a little grumpy, wasn't it?

Sometimes, generally late at night, I do get a bit like Letterman when the crowd boos a joke. And he is moved to cry out "Come on now, people! How much did you pay for the tickets?"

It may also be guilt. As I said, I haven't involved myself in banning procedures but I do see all the e-mails. It always seemed to be Named For Hank, who is far too nice a guy for this sort of chore anyway, patiently trying to explain the ground rules, and generally getting abused for his troubles. And I'd be thinking: a) man, I'm glad I don't have a piece of this, and b) why bother? Who needs this crap, anyway?
scottt - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#172873) #
Chacin has an OBA around .266 for the last 2 years.  Is BB/K hasn't changed that much. The big difference seems to be that he went from giving up 1 HR every 10 innings in 2005 to giving up one every 5 since. Chacin has also the advantage of being a lefty, which is more important against some clubs than others.

Towers has always had an OBA around .300. He's had the same problem with the long ball lately.

subculture - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#172877) #
"teams win ballgames, not players" - please explain.

Please explain to me how it can be any other way.   -  Now who's ignoring the point?  It's your statement, surely you can support it even a little bit?  There are many different ways you can go with that statement, but it seems like you're afraid to.  It's kind of like saying, "the team that scores more runs in a game usually wins".  Empty statement without direction.

My liking of Towers over Chacin is purely personal, and has nothing to do with stats.

Personal, as in Chacin wouldn't sign your Jays t-shirt, or his cologne doesn't compliment you?  I prefer Chacin over Towers, because I believe he gives the Jays a better chance to WIN games.  His stats are superior, and I've actually seen the Jays win a good percentage of the games that he started.  What is it about Towers that you prefer over Chacin?

.. a favorable W-L record DOES NOT predict a "propensity" to win games. It's luck. You use peripherals to gauge future performances, and as I have already pointed out, Chacin has over a 5era and 1.3whip over the last 2 seasons. He has been a BAD pitcher.

Finally, after 5 posts, you've said something that we can have a real dialog about, although I wish you would be more specific about which peripherals.  While I understand where you're coming from, I can't completely agree for some of the reasons I've already stated about relying too heavily on stats.  ERA can be inflated by a crappy bullpen, poor defense, Coor's field, or a manager that leaves you too late in games.  WHIP can be inflated by a tight strike zone, hitter's park, or lingering injuries that affect your control.

You say that W-L record is not at all relevant to 'propensity' to win games, and that "it's luck".  I say that peripheral stats (like whip, oba, era) are not necessarily any more relevant.  Why?  B/c while certain stats (like K/9) seem to be correlate well with a pitcher's success, you need to look at the whole picture, look at ALL the stats that you have available, because there are exceptions to every rule (and every stat), and to NOT look at W-L record is pretty foolish.  Guys like Chacin and Wang (on the Yankees) are good examples of that imo. 

You took offense to my statement that Chacin seems to keep his team in the game, and that the notion is actually silly.  That it's purely luck why Towers has so many bad big innings, and Chacin does not.  Here's more statements you can comment on, hopefully more constructively, that go hand-in-hand with that first one.

- perhaps certain pitchers matchup to certain types of hitting teams better than others.  So maybe a control pitcher like Towers pitchers great against aggressive teams, but is more likely to get lit-up by patient ones. 
- perhaps certain pitchers can adjust better to umpire strike zones, new catchers, teams that run, extreme heat/cold...
- perhaps certain pitchers like Chacin control the running game better, thus able to induce more double-plays, even though this isn't reflected in most peripheral stats
- perhaps certain pitchers handle pressure better, and are better able to execute at important moments.  I'm not talking about the 'clutch' factor... but think about the NBA where a lot of young mediocre teams hang around until the last 3 minutes of the game, and then wilt.
- how about guys like Jack Morris (and even Roy Halladay), who once he got a lead in a game basically would pitch to contact to have short innings (sacrificing quite a few solo homers) and get his offense back on the field, where usually they would respond with great run support.  Where is that in the peripherals?

Man, I could go on and on... but very interested in all the great stuff you're going to contribute so I'll wait for your response...

RoyalsFan hits an infield single, but Subculture unfazed and with a comfortable lead, rears back and throws another heater down the middle...
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#172881) #

I don't appreciate your tone, or your immature baseball broadcasting.

It's your statement, surely you can support it even a little bit? 

Just because at some point baseball statisticians decided to start awarding "wins" to the starting pitcher does not mean that pitchers can "win" games. Teams do, not individual players. I am not sure how I can explain it any better, I find it to be pretty self explanatory. If you would like to explain to me how a pitcher can win a game, I am more than happy to listen.

"What is it about Towers that you prefer over Chacin?"

He's much better looking. I made it clear it had nothing to do with stats. I was mentioning him as the 7th guy on the depth chart, Chacin #8. Obviously my feeling is that neither should start next year. If I'm going to be stuck with having to use one of the crappy guys, I'd rather Towers, and maybe it's just for character. I find Towers to be filled with fire, an edge. Chacin, on the other hand, has no problem getting plastered the night before a spring training start and driving under the influence. Not that I know Towers doesn't do the same, just Chacin got caught. It doesn't say much for his committment to the game/team that he is out drinking the night before a start, and pulled over for drunk driving at 4 in the morning. My gut tells me Josh does not do the same.

B/c while certain stats (like K/9) seem to be correlate well with a pitcher's success, you need to look at the whole picture, look at ALL the stats that you have available, because there are exceptions to every rule (and every stat), and to NOT look at W-L record is pretty foolish.

I agree 100% that is impossible to just look at stats and be able to paint a picture, predict future success. There are way too many intangibles that go into these stats that you really need to watch every game to have a better understand of how a guy has fared. That being said, W-L is not a stat. It is useless, in my opinion. We can agree to disagree. I will not even glance at a pitcher's record, because to me it means absolutely nothing.  I'm not sure why you find it foolish though, or better yet - What information can you get, in terms of future predictions, from looking at a guys W-L record?

Your last 5 points are all extremely relevant, and the first time you have actually addressed what you can get out of looking at a W-L record. If you believe a pitcher's record can be indicative of the things you mentioned, that's one thing. They certainly are not located in the peripherals, as you pointed out. Do they exist in W-L record? Perhaps. I don't see it. I find the W-L record to be way too reliant on a team's offense, and actually have very little to do with the things you mentioned. I think the reason Chacin was over .666% last year was the Blue Jays offence, and near nothing to do with any of the 5 things you said. And that's based on watching all his starts. He was not a good pitcher. He was a lucky one, that his tribulations were masked by one of the best offenses in the league. Towers, especially this year, has not had the same fortunate luck. When he gives up 4 runs over 5 or 6 innings, he loses every time, as he should.

Man, I could go on and on... but very interested in all the great stuff you're going to contribute so I'll wait for your response...

Please stop trying to show me up with a condescending tone.

I never intended for this to be a discussion about who is better, Towers or Chacin. So from here on out, let's keep it to whether or not Chacin has a "propensity" to win games, and whether or not you need laser eye surgery.

 

Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#172882) #
Friends, it seems to me that this has been beaten to death.  Wouldn't it be nice to be talking about Shaun Marcum instead?
subculture - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 03:46 AM EDT (#172888) #
Alright, in the spirit of moving on, and agreeing to disagree, I'll ignore your last comment about laser eye surgery and focus on  what we're actually debating.  Basically, I feel that Chacin is a decent pitcher (I said imo he's a great #5 pitcher), who despite less than impressive peripherals, manages to win games.  Note I never said that he singlehandedly wins games, and I don't think you seriously ever believed that is what I implied either.  If you've been concerned with the semantics of what "win" means, then we've wasted a lot of time.

I believe that he has a greater propensity to win games than Towers, whereas you'd rather start Towers because you like his fire.  Can I infer that you thus feel that he has a greater propensity to win games than Chacin?  Or to rephrase, that the Jays have a better chance of winning games that Tower starts, versus Chacin?

Of course, if you just don't like Chacin based on perceived character issues, regardless of his propensity (or lack of) to help his team win games, then we really are having a separate discussion which is not at all along the lines of what I thought we were talking about.

The reason that W-L is still important, is because as you admitted yourself, there are too many intangibles that go into stats, that there must be room for error.  And if someone establishes a pattern of success despite poor peripherals, or someone else establishes a pattern of failure despite great peripherals, than I think it's worth at least looking for another explanation.
W-L can hint of another reason (or overlooked stat) of why somebody may be more or less successful than expected.

I would love to see a stat for pitches executed - meaning, if a catcher calls a particular pitch, what % of the time the pitcher actually throws it in that location (give or take a few inches) and at the ideal speed.

Please stop trying to show me up with a condescending tone.

Let me say that I only returned what you had delivered... the initial mocking did not bring out the best in me, and I'm surprised if you are surprised at my tone, considering the type of words that you used in your posts.  However if you're indicating that you'll change your tone, I'm happy to comply.

Perhaps the only way to conclude this debate is to actually watch Chacin's future results (assuming he will return healthy and pitch).  I really don't care if his era enters Tower's territory (8+), or his whip is 2.5... if the Jays win the majority of times that he starts, I'll take each victory as a little one for myself.

Mike, I'm sorry we keep beating on this, but I really was trying to get some clarification on why I was being mocked, but am ready to get past this, having made my point.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 04:21 AM EDT (#172889) #
I want to answer quick, so you don't pop another one out of the park off my bullpen.

And if someone establishes a pattern of success despite poor peripherals, or someone else establishes a pattern of failure despite great peripherals, than I think it's worth at least looking for another explanation.

I was thinking about this before you wrote it. If a guy for 5 years straight has a 5.00era with a 1.5whip yet finishes each season with a .666 winning percentage, then what? Can I still ignore W-L? You made several good points earlier. I guess the real question is what size of a sample is needed before using the W-L record. It's pure opinion I guess. But I still need to see more from Chacin to believe he has a "propensity" to win games, and can fit the bill of somehow being a "winning" pitcher.

Can I infer that you thus feel that he has a greater propensity to win games than Chacin?  Or to rephrase, that the Jays have a better chance of winning games that Tower starts, versus Chacin?

No. My point was that if for some god forsaken reason the Jays need to resort to either of these 2 next year, I would rather see Towers. And that would be because they are so far out of it they just need an arm to start some games for them. Neither should sniff next year's rotation, but if one of them has to for a bit for some spot starts I'd prefer to see Towers make them. Out of my love for him.
subculture - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#172929) #
ActionJackson pinchhits and strikesout!!  

Lol, just kidding...  well said, and if you'd posted 2 days earlier it might have been more effective.

I think we've pretty much made up our differences, agreeing to disagree on some points, and recognizing others.

I'm just not as down on Chacin as some others though, and would feel very comfortable with him as the #5 pitcher (especially if he's the one lefty).  That doesn't mean I wouldn't prefer a rotation that was so awesome that Halladay was #5... 

M&M's emergence to me makes me wonder if we're now in a position to trade Burnett to improve our offense.. either in the trade or using the salary saved.  And part of that reasoning is because I've got no issue with Chacin at #5 .... I'm not ruling out Janssen or Litsch either... we need depth, but neither one of them has started a full season yet so let's not expect TOO much out of them.



actionjackson - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#172945) #
subculture, I think at this point you might get the proverbial "bag of donuts" and zero salary coverage for Burnett. His market value is that low. If he can stay injury free for the next year and if shows the form he's shown throughout his career i.e. 98 mph fastball and an unbelievable curve and hopefully some more freakin' changeups, low H/9, high K/9, reasonable BB/9 and decent HR/9, maybe, just maybe by next July 31 he becomes tradeable but not if the team is in next years race because you're going to want him. I think his salary gives him even less market value than Towers right now, frightening as that may seem. I want to see how he does when he's pitching for a contract next year, even if that contract only becomes possible if he decides to opt out of the final two years. He did it before in 2005, when he made 32 starts before being sent home after his Sept. 25 start. That's the only season in his career when he's made at least 30 starts in a season. I think the smell of greenbacks could lead to a big year for Mr. Burnett and that could be good for your Toronto Blue Jays.

As for what other teams would want in exchange for offensive upgrades, well there's Marcum, McGowan, Accardo, Janssen, Litsch, League (maybe), Frasor (maybe), Rios (self-defeating), Lind (not as much as at the start of this year), Hill (also self-defeating), Overbay (see Lind). Unfortunately, what the Jays want to keep is also what other teams want and what the Jays might want to trade: possibly Wells, Johnson, Glaus, Burnett, Ryan, Towers, Chacin other teams have little or no interest in at the moment. Anything can happen I suppose, but we're not matching up too well with potential trading partners at the moment. I think that's why you hear JP saying he's "happy" with this team as is *cringe*. There's no position that the team has depth at except pitching and at that position you can never have enough. How's that free agent market looking JP? This team needs some tinkering, although maybe if you left the offense as is it would be better next year because I've never seen so many guys have career worst seasons all at once. They're absolutely frustrating to watch most of the time, especially against RHP and that's where any tinkering that is going to happen must take place. I think this will be a very frustrating offseason to be a Blue Jays fan, unless JP gets some cahones and wants to change the makeup of this team. But standing pat might also be the best option *shudder*.
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