Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Give that Surgeon a Contract

Shaun Marcum has a torn meniscus in his knee and will have surgery later this week with a 4 to 6 week recovery period. Here is the Blue Jays upcoming schedule:

Tuesday - Vernon Wells shoulder surgery
Wednesday - Lyle Overbay hand surgery
Thursday - Shaun Marcum - knee surgery

Frank Thomas and Scott Downs are day to day. John McDonald is back in the lineup Sunday.

The Jays strong play against the Yankees has come from the bottom of the order. If you consider the Jays normal top of the lineup, Reed Johnson and Matt Stairs have not been hitting well recently, Stairs has suffered from playing every day and probably will get time off next week. Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus are gone home for the winter, and Frank Thomas has not been hitting well since his three home run game. The bottom half of the lineup has been hitting better, Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, Adam Lind, Curtis Thigpen and yesterday Rey Olmedo all have been hitting.

Even though Thigpen had a couple of hits yesterday, and even though it looks like the Jays will leave him at catcher, I would look for the Jays to sign a major league veteran catcher in the off-season who could back up Zaun and let Thigpen play every day in AAA. I still don't know why the Jays didn't do that this year.

There are a lot of candidates for the job of backup infielder next season, Rey Olmedo who is smooth with the glove and rough with the bat; Russ Adams who is good with the bat and rough with the glove; Hector Luna who hasn't shown much so far; and Joe Inglett. I think Luna will be released unless the Jays have a spare 40 man roster spot.

Aaron Hill has played in 153 of the Jays 154 games this season, it looks like he might need a rest, he has been hitting well but he looks a step off in the field. Look for him to get a day off Tuesday or Wednesday.

With two marathon games agianst the Yankees, 33 total pitchers used, perhaps the most surpising thing was that Greg Zaun threw out a runner.

Early in the season the Jays were encouraging Jason Frasor to work faster, that's a dead issue now. Frasor has really slowed and must rank as one of the slowest pitchers in baseball. I wonder if Frasor will get traded over the winter as he seems to be a frustrating player to the organization.

I haven't seen a lot from Joe Kennedy these games to suggest he should be in the pen next season. I would have more faith in Downs and maybe even Tallet.

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 01:15 PM EDT.

Give that Surgeon a Contract | 62 comments | Create New Account

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Ryan Day - Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#174638) #

I don't think the Jays can send Thigpen to AAA to catch every day, since that looks to be Diaz's spot. It only makes sense to send Thigpen to AAA if they're going to do the super-utility thing with him; otherwise, I don't really see the harm in making him the backup catcher on the big-league team. Are there many inexpensive options on the market that would be significantly better?

And as much as I'd like to see Olmedo on the roster, I'm not sure there's a place for him if John McDonald is going to be around; they're pretty much the same sort of player. I'd rather see someone with more offensive potential, even if it means a dropoff in defence.

TamRa - Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#174639) #

I should think Tallet would have earned our respect by now. Tallet v. Kennedy is a no-brainer. Not that I'm adverse to keeping Kennedy in the system if a minor league contract would do it. It may be that Downs could be an important trading chip at some point given he's one year from FA.

R Billie - Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#174640) #

I wonder how long the knee has been an issue for Marcum. He apparently starting feeling pain in his Baltimore start but the injury may have been around and degenerating for a while before that. It could be responsible for his fatigue issues in the last month or so.

ayjackson - Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#174641) #

On the other side of the injury ledger, there was Brandon League hitting 96, 97 and 98 on the gun yesterday. Now he just needs his control back.

ramone - Sunday, September 23 2007 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#174642) #

Did you watch him just now, his control was much better, 2 strikeouts, got ahead in the count on all the hitters. Best I've seen him.

christaylor - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#174644) #

Watching League was very encouraging, given how things were sounding around April/May, it was easy to believe that he'd never pitch again in the bigs. Now if JP can turn this surplus of bullpen arms into something (read: LF/C/SS) that'll help the offense...

R Billie - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 05:32 AM EDT (#174645) #

League would be sold low right now. If you were going to trade someone you might have to look at someone like Casey Janssen who has put up good results but is a bit of a question mark to repeat with his low strikeout rate.

If you think you can get by with Wolfe, Frasor, and League as righty depth behind Accardo and Ryan then that's an option.

greenfrog - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#174647) #

Well, you can never have enough pitching. I would hate to see the Jays lose Janssen, who really seems to have taken to the setup role. And I'm not sure teams would give up that much for him after one good season and good-but-not-great peripherals. But with an apparent surplus of relievers, I can see the logic.

If the Jays really want to bring in some top young talent, they might have to trade Burnett (which makes some sense if we're likely to lose him after 2008). He's a marquee player whose stock has risen sharply over the last couple of months. I have a hard time seeing a trade happening, though. The rotation has finally come together. I think JP will keep AJ and hope that he (1) stays healthy, and (2) wants to stay with Arnsberg and the Jays badly enough that he plays out his contract.

Ryan Day - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#174648) #

I wonder if Jeremy Accardo has acquired enough Proven Closer mojo to become a valuable trading chip. Obviously it means you need to have faith in League's ability to close until Ryan is back (mid-season?), but it'd be interesting to see what he could bring back.

Scott Downs may have some value, too, and I'm pretty confident in Brian Tallet as the top lefty. After 60 innings, he still hasn't given up a home run - that's pretty impressive.

Jevant - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#174649) #

I'm starting to feel like I would be very hesitant to turn our strength into a potential position of risk.

Should we trade one or more of our relievers, we're only an injury after that away from having an extremely thin bullpen. Our pitching staff is one of the strongest in the league since it's been essentially healthy, and it would seem strange to shoot that in the foot. And we're missing our best bullpen arm. The 2008 pen could be something special.

I'm surprised I'm saying this, but I tend to agree with JP when he states that he likes the current makeup of this team. The hitting has been hobbled by injuries all year (Overbay, Wells, Johnson, Glaus) - if those guys even just play to their average levels we are probably much closer this year. I do realize there will always be injuries, but to lose production from 1B, CF, LF, 3B all in the same year seems unlikely to happen again.

I'm tempted to give this team a shot again next year. No team is going to be able to have backup plans for every position. Our best bet is to hopefully try to improve the SS offensive production (although they seem unlikely to do that), and cross our fingers.

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#174650) #

Well, something's gotta give on the pitching staff:

AJ Burnett
Doc Halladay
Dustin McGowan
Shawn Marcum
Casey Janssen
Gus Chacin
Josh Towers
BJ Ryan
Jeremy Accardo
Brandon League
Scott Downs
Brian Tallet
Jason Frasor
Brian Wolfe

I believe only Wolfe can be optioned to the minors (maybe we can apply for a fourth option with Gus). This doesn't include Jesse Litsch, Jamie Vermilyea, Davis Romero and Lee Gronkiewicz, whom could also figure into the equation. Josh may not be tendered, I suppose.

Jevant - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#174651) #

Well, fair enough.

That said, I would cross Towers and Frasor off the list right now. Rightly or wrongly (in my opinion, rightly in the case of Towers, wrongly in the case of Frasor), I cannot see either of them back next year. Towers has clearly lost all favour with the Jays, and Frasor seems to as well. I can understand Towers, can't understand Frasor, but that's the way it is.

So that cuts the list to 12 (and that's assuming Ryan and Chacin will both actually be back for the beginning of the year). If not, that opens up your spots for some of the other guys, and again, that's assuming no more injuries.

If those 14 players are all ready to go with the Jays for spring training, I'll agree - we can trade a pitcher. I'd just be shocked if that was the case.

davidcanavan - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#174652) #

I like the idea of trading one of the bullpen pitchers for a position player. I also like the idea of trading Chacin for just about anything that is offered, and try to find a diamond in the ruff (like Wolfe in the Koskie trade). For right now though I don�t see any particular reason to try to pick up marquis names at catcher, left field or shortstop like have been suggested. In left field I truly believe that Adam Lind can step in next year and hit in the 250-260 range with 20+ homeruns at the bare minimum. I would take that over Reed Johnsons career averages of 282 and about 9 homeruns a year any day, especially considering that Lind is only going to get batter with time.

As for the catching position, an upgrade isn�t particularly needed. Yes Greg Zaun has had a rough year, but he only has one year left on his contract, and two of the top prospects in the system in Thigpin and Diaz are knocking on the door, so trying to acquire a big name at catcher now seems detrimental to the future of the club.

As for shortstop, I love Johnny Mac, and if the rest of the club hits at their career averages no one will notice him hitting 240 with no power but contending for golden gloves. Plus the lower end of the jays system is packed with middle infielders (Ahrens, Tolisano, Jackson) so I think he can defiantly hold them over until hopefully one of them makes it up here.

In conclusion, trade some of the surplus bullpen arms for high risk high reward prospects, young guys with power arms, or young fielders with tools, something where in the future we could potentially get a great player, and even if that means next year we miss the playoffs again for some reason, there will be some actual hope in the farm system.

Jevant - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#174653) #

As much as I love Johnny Mac, I will notice that 240 (if we are lucky). With Zaun's dropoff likely continuing, that's 2 sinkholes in the lineup. Which simply doesn't look good for the AL East.

Johnny Mac is a defensive replacement/pinch runner player. To commit to him as Plan A at SS for the next 2 years is rather frightening to me. Webgems and all.

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#174654) #

I don't think JMac will ever even bump into Tolisano and Jackson at Spring Training, let alone hold the fort at SS until they arrive.

I don't think the Jays should trade Chacin, because he's worth more than he can return in trade. It's also hard to trade a rehabbing pitcher. The leading candidates to be traded from the staff are Towers and Tallet, in my opinion. I think by the end of next year, we'll have two more lefties prime for major league bullpen roles in Davis Romero and David Purcey.

Chuck - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#174655) #

no one will notice him hitting 240 with no power

... and no batting eye (312 AB, 10 BB).

I'm pretty sure that every opposition pitcher will notice the Jays' 9-hole being filled with what is effectively a decent hitting pitcher.

Jevant - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#174656) #

Not to mention that fact that if you've ever seen Johnny Mac swing the bat, it is painfully obvious that he can't catch up to a fastball over 90 MPH.

If you're a big league pitcher and you don't simply throw him fastballs as hard as you can, you're going to miss an easy strikeout.

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#174657) #

I'm not sure anybody has noticed, but Greg Zaun has put up a .755 OPS so far this year - quite a bit above the league (AL)average of .711 for the position, and a bit above his career average of .733. If only he could throw.

Also , Aaron Hill's late season surge has raised his OPS to .779 (OPS+ = 101).

Ryan Day - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#174658) #

You couldn't get anything for Chacin now. He's been injured for two years. And really, why bother trading him? He's not making much money, he's not blocking any better pitchers while he's on the DL... Let him rehab, then figure out what to do with him, probably mid-2008.

Chuck - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#174659) #

Im in agreement on Chacin. I'm very skeptical about his future. I was when he was healthy(ish), let alone the shape he's in now. If he turns into anything again, if won't be at the expense of more deserving candidates. I imagine he'll be entirely out of the 2008 picture (at least as far as the parent club is concerned).

As for Zaun, as long as he continues drawing walks at a league-wide low bar position for offense, I don't see him eroding into a sinkhole in 2008.

As for Hill, I'm pleased with his late season resurgence but he clearly needs a rest -- his defense was very un-Hill-like on the weekend (who was that guy?). As for his OPS, 2008's mission should be to get the OBP portion elevated. If he learns to better control the strike zone (and his over-eagerness), there is much room for growth.

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#174660) #

Gibby won a fan this weekend in NBC/SI NFL blowhard, Peter King, in his refusal to play out the string.

c. Toronto manager John Gibbons will have a lot of admirers in pennant raceville after using 15 pitchers in two games against the Yanks over the weekend ... when his team has been out of the race for three weeks.

Marc Hulet - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#174661) #

Chacin has a couple options left so there is no harm in sending him down and letting him try to recapture his previous form.

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#174662) #

Chacin has a couple options left so there is no harm in sending him down and letting him try to recapture his previous form. Thanks for clearing that up, Marc.

Jevant - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#174663) #

Completely right about Zaun, my bad. Should have checked his numbers better. He's well off last year's OPS, but still, not the sinkhole (this year) that I had in my mind that he was.

Whether he continues into next year is a whole different story. I can't see it bouncing back to last year's levels, but I've been wrong many a time before.

Chuck - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#174664) #

I can't see it bouncing back to last year's levels, but I've been wrong many a time before.

Zaun's 2008 will almost certainly not be a repeat of 2006, but if he can produce 400 AB's at even a league average level for catcher, that's helpful enough, especially given the modest cost to the organization of that performance level.

By definition, if each position produced league average offense for that position, the team's offense would be league average. The league averages, as provided by Baseball-Reference.

AWeb - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#174665) #

Zaun's OPS+ in Toronto have been : 94, 94, 110, 96 (so far). The 110 was in part due to greater use of platooning advantages with Molina around. Zaun has also raised his power and lost some OBP this year, but all in all, I think expecting another similar year next year is quite reasonable, and actually not a weak spot, offensively, for the Jays going forward. I would expect an injury or two though, so I hope Thigpen can at least provide better defense/offense than Phillips managed this year (which is setting the bar pretty damn low). And hopefully Zaun and the pitching staff can limit the SB better next year (Zaun's hand injury makes me hope he'll throw better next year).

For the foreseeable future, the Jays need things to break right if they are to contend, since they aren't producing top hitting prospects at a high rate, and have no top-tier hitters (unlike the division leaders) able to make up for horrible performances by others. No one on the team is an OBP machine (5 Red Sox and 3 Yankees get on more often than Thomas) or a speedster either, which helps to minimize slumps. This year, things went very wrong with several important lineup spots, most of which are heading to surgery now. Next year, it looks like they start out on the same fine line again.

Oh, and the games this weekend, with the Jays battling the Yankees hard with half a lineup, were great, even if they did lose 2 of 3. If only Hill hadn't looked so bad in the field, what could've been....

Glevin - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#174666) #

"For the foreseeable future, the Jays need things to break right if they are to contend, since they aren't producing top hitting prospects at a high rate, and have no top-tier hitters (unlike the division leaders) able to make up for horrible performances by others."

That's exactly it. Also, considering that a few of their players are in the decline phase of their careers, sudden declines/injuries are to be expected. The only players I expect to be better are Lind (improvement), Wells (the 04/05 variety) and Overbay. Thomas, Zaun, and Stairs will probably all be worse. Also, why would anyone give up anything for Chacin?

hugo - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#174668) #

hey, anyone know why Litsch made the start today? Shouldn't it have been A.J.? Or is he not well?

ayjackson - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#174669) #

Well I expect Hill and Rios to be better; I don't believe they've reached their career highs at the age of 25/26.

Ducey - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#174670) #

Rey Olmedo who is smooth with the glove and rough with the bat; Russ Adams who is good with the bat and rough with the glove

There are two more candidates for surgery - imagine Russ Olmedo showing up for spring training to challenge Johnny Mac!

Joanna - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#174671) #

According to the official site

"A.J. Burnett was originally slated to take the mound for the Blue Jays in the regular-season finale at Yankee Stadium, but he left the club to tend to a family matter at home. With Burnett temporarily out of the mix, rookie right-hander Jesse Litsch moved his next scheduled start up a day to start against New York. "

He will pitch in Baltimore, apparently.

Shaker Mo - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#174673) #

Regarding A.J.'s status:

Is it sad that the BJ Ryan injury coverup has me harbouring suspicions about the reasons behind AJ's sudden removal from the start?

It probably is nothing other than what it seems, but I have been taking any Jays infury reports with a grain of salt since "BJ-gate".

Mick Doherty - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#174679) #

imagine Russ Olmedo showing up for spring training

Hm. Yeah, but what if the slick glove and good bat end up in Rey Adams?

John Brattain - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#174680) #

Zaun is still useful (.333/.436/.606 since the end of August). Switch hitter, good batting eye, decent offense for his position. The key with Zaun is not overusing him. He's too good to be a backup, but his performance suffers if he's used too much.

This is actually an ideal situation for the Jays. They can break in a new backstop over 2008 without suffering a loss of production on the field. Zaun should catch 80-90 games, and be a bat off the bench while breaking in Thigpen (or somebody else). If you've got a team that likes to run, you play him, but if it's a more station-to-station club, then Zaun catches. Since he switch hits it doesn't matter if the station-to station team starts a LHP or a RHP. He has funny splits though: He bats better as a righty (career: .275/.366/.390) but homers more often as lefty (every 36 AB as opposed to 61 AB as a RH ... he bats .246/.338/.389 as a lefty BTW).

Bottom line, I'm glad he's with the Jays in 2008--he's a handy guy to have around. From what I've heard from the players themselves, he busts his butt working on his game and getting ready to play. His approach is that he treats each game (pregame/in game and post-game) like he's auditioning to play in the next one.

I want that kind of attitude in the clubhouse.

If Thigpen or somebody else turns out to be a stud behind the plate, then you've got a terrific backup catcher, pinch hitter, occasional 1B/DH. In short--he gives Toronto a much deeper bench. He's .259/.355/.407 as a Blue Jay--I'd take that total in 2008 thank-you-very-much.

I really don't see a downside--unless he gets hurt or falls right off a cliff.

Best Regards

John

P.S. Aaron Hill came into 2007 looking to be a bit more aggressive at the plate (hence the strikeouts) and add to his power. He has a solid batting eye and before this year had a BB/K of 170/215 since he signed in 2003. As you know this year: 45 doubles, 2 triples, 16 HR and a .450 SLG. If he's healthy, he is going to be awesome next year.

John Brattain - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#174681) #

Speaking of which: Don't forget, Joey Gathright pulled back two Hill HR in KC last August. Had he not done that (bad, Joey, BAD!) Hill would be .287/.333/.463 this year. That's pretty good work for a slick fielding 25 year old second baseman. We may have Chase Utley-lite in Toronto in 2008.

Best Regards

John

ANationalAcrobat - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#174687) #

On a different topic, I'll be very interested to see Janssen's velocity next year if he does get a shot as a starter. In 2006, I believe he was toping out around 89-90, however this season, pitching out of the pen, he has been hitting 93-94. I understand that many pitchers gain some miles from being able to let it rip out of the pen, and I am curious as to whether or not these miles will carry over to the rotation: This is apparently what has caused Zack Greinke's recent success. After a longish stint in the pen, he has returned to the rotation throwing much harder while maintaining his control, and his recent numbers are very strong.

R Billie - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#174688) #

It would certainly be interesting to see how Janssen could do in a second rotation stint if he could indeed carry his additional velocity over as well as stay strong for an entire season.

I would think that as long as he carries his decent homerun rate and control he can do alright in any role.

But I still have to wonder why Janssen even with the improved velocity is averaging only about 4.8 k/9 as a reliever this year and less than 4.5 k/9 over the first 165 innings of his major league career to this point. In the minors he was at about 6.8 k/9 in AAA and over 1 k/9 in AA (granted in just 40 some odd innings each).

For me it begs the question, is his 2.39 ERA this year a mirage? Is he actually closer to the 5.07 era he put up last year or the 4.85 he put up in AAA? Or does the added velocity make a difference even without the strikeouts?

Mylegacy - Monday, September 24 2007 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#174689) #

I'm wired about next year. Our pitching will be exceptional, even with a few injuries.

AJ and McG give us two classic power guys, both with great control. Doc is a "former" power pitcher who has made the coversion to plain old fashion "Ace." We have Marcum with four average pitches and exceptional control. Litsch is "Marcum Lite" BUT is only 22 and still learning - he has a great future ahead of him! Janssen would be starting by now for sure had Ryan not gone down. Janssen, to me, is a "Natural." This kid is going to be a star. Tallet could start, this kid is a keeper. Downs could start. If Purcey gets "control" he could be McG "Lite," if not he'll be traded. Romero projects to be Janssen or Marcum if it all comes together. When all is said and done, wow!

IF, Ryan is back to being Ryan by the All-Star break an exceptional pen will be unstoppable in the second half.

Offensively, how many years do five of your top hitters go down with a combo of; broken hands (2), messed up feet, back operations and shoulder malfunctions?

Off the wall prediction for 08 - Frank Thomas, after a full healthy year comes to spring training in his best shape of the last decade and actually hits over 250 for April and May. Expect a truly surprising, exceptional season from the Big Hurt. He's walking into the Hall not creepin' in the back door.

AND, those of you that have read my contributions to this site know - I've NEVER been wrong! It's not my fault if sometine the jerks on the field don't read my stuff so they know what to do.

Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#174692) #

Roger, we hear you. 162-0. It's a lock.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#174693) #

Believe Chuck, believe.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#174694) #

Steve Treder continues his Value Production Standings in today's THT with 2002-04. There is a handy summary at the end of the article. The punch-line- the Blue Jays produced the most talent in the AL East (by far) during the period 1994-2004, and produced the least during the period 1977-1984, yet the results in 05-07 were not as good as in 85-87. Or, as my mother-in-law used to say to her teenaged daughters, "it's not how you start out, it's how you end up".

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#174699) #

Time to change tack....Travis Snider had another marvelous year in the minors - robbed of his second consecutive MVP award by a base thief. So, would the Jays be wise to explore the trading of Adam Lind for a SS (Escobar, Brignac, Wood?) and sign a lefty platoon partner (Stairs, Wilkerson, Mackowiak, Floyd, Klesko, Bonds) for Reed Johnson to hold down the fort until Snider's 2009 arrival?

Flex - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#174700) #

would the Jays be wise to explore the trading of Adam Lind for a SS (Escobar, Brignac, Wood?) and sign a lefty platoon partner (Stairs, Wilkerson, Mackowiak, Floyd, Klesko, Bonds) for Reed Johnson to hold down the fort until Snider's 2009 arrival?

IMO, if the Jays plan to try to win next year, as I believe they do, then that's a good scenario. They want Stairs back, they need a place for him to play, and they're not going to give up on Reed Johnson, who they're not likely to get much for in trade. A fairly straight platoon with Johnson gives Stairs a decent number of at bats -- if he expects more he's asking for a lot -- and he's more likely to help the Jays win next year than Lind, who I like, but who needs a bit more time.

Makes sense. I like it. Let's do it.

Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#174704) #

That's an extremely interesting theory. I'm not sure what kind of return Lind would generate, but if we could get a good SS prospect, I'd think you'd almost have to do that. That'll be a lot easier than trying to find a LF platoon mate for a year.

Is Snider for sure 2009? I thought it was possibly 2010? Either way, I like your theory (which won't surprise many if you've read my thoughts on Johnny Mac).

Wildrose - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#174707) #

Well not everybody dislikes John McDonald, Tango's initial fan scouting report is up, and McDonald is rated the second best shortstop in the game behind Everett. The question remains does his overall defensive value, offset his poor hitting enough, to provide value moving forward? This is a very difficult question to answer.

Wildrose - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#174710) #

M.G. linked Joe Sheehan's work on pitch F.X. data, particularly how it relates to Jess Litsch. I stumbled on this blog, that looks at Jesse in particular using this approach.

Good stuff.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#174712) #

Is Snider for sure 2009? I thought it was possibly 2010?

It wouldn't shock me if Snider was in Toronto some time in 2009. However, I certainly wouldn't count on it. Maybe he slumps, maybe he twists an ankle and misses half a season... too much can happen to rely on it.

TangoTiger - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#174716) #

Wildrose, the question is not difficult to answer at all. Mcdonald is -7.4 offensive wins in 1430 PA since 2002. Per 700 PA (162 G), that's -3.6 wins. As a fielder, he's +1.5 wins according to the fans, plus another +0.5 wins for playing SS. Overall, he's -1.6 wins per 162 G. Replacement level is around -2.3 wins per 162 G.

He is definite bench material, no question about that. He probably has two years left before he provides no more value.

Wildrose - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#174718) #

He is definite bench material, no question about that. He probably has two years left before he provides no more value.

Thanks Tango, I guess the question then becomes can the Blue Jays live with this level of performance , or should they go find / trade for someone else.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#174726) #

Toronto fans rated McDonald higher than any of the metrics. He does appear to have had his best year defensively in 2007 at age 32. The other question going forward is what the expected rate of deterioration in shortstop defensive performance is in the early 30s. Whatever it is, McDonald can be anticipated to provide (at best) just over replacement value over the next 2 years. The risk is that the club sees McDonald this year, as it did for Clayton last year, as a reasonable everyday option for 2008.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2007 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#174727) #

Matthew Pouliot at Rotoworld gives his projected 2008 rosters (he imagines some trades and free agent signings) and adds some commentary. I think he gives a pretty fair assessment of the Jays' situation. He provides a couple of suggestions for SS (Uribe) and backup 3B (Ensberg or Lamb).

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=29041

scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#174729) #

Matt Clement, Shawn Chacon and Tony Armas Jr. are possibilities? God, I hope not!

Also he has Baltimore getting rid of Tajeda. That's the guy I'd like to play SS and back up 3B.

One of the problems I have with the Jays is the overuse of pinch-runners yet no legitimate base stealer on the bench.

Another one is no genuine leadoff hitter with Stairs/Lind in LF.

christaylor - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 03:24 AM EDT (#174731) #

The rotoworld was interesting, but assuming that JP is always willing to jump on things to make the team better I'd expect that JP will do something unexpected. Perhaps upgrading something that seems set or seems to already be a strength. A 1B? Upgrading the rotation (Meche says, "Get me out?") ? A 3B (moving Glaus to DH and trading Thomas who doesn't seem that un-movable now)? A starting OF (Crawford - pretty please)? Tejada for young pitching? Renteria for a couple of pen pitchers? I'm not suggesting any of these will happen, but the article's suggestions (Uribe given a platoon look, scrubs to fill the 5th spot in the rotation) seem to buy into JPs rhetoric a little too much and ignore that JP has made an interesting move each of the past few years... something probably will happen this off-season and I bet even JP isn't sure what it is as he'll take whatever falls into his lap that he likes (like Hillenbrand/Glaus/Thomas).

Chuck - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#174732) #

something probably will happen this off-season and I bet even JP isn't sure what it is as he'll take whatever falls into his lap that he likes (like Hillenbrand/Glaus/Thomas).

I'm not sure that Glaus and Thomas fell into Ricciardi's lap. He'd been pursuing power hitters pretty unabashedly for the past couple of years.

My concern about the impending off-season is that Ricciardi has already floated "no major changes" trial ballons. I can't see the upside of sending out such a vibe if is his ambitions are otherwise. That isn't to say that next year's starting nine may not be who we all imagine, but I'm going into this off-season with the belief that the status quo is his default position and that an 85-win team is what takes the field next spring.

ayjackson - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#174741) #

Chuck, I think a good GM would float the "no major changes" balloons whether he wanted to make them or not. If you're under pressure to make deals due to the expectations you've set going into the offseason, it may be more difficult to get fair value.

My personal belief is that he'll pursue trades because he's a busy bee in the offseason. I doubt he'll have money for FA signings, except a cheap bench player or two. He'll probably have money to sign Hill and Rios to long term deals if he can get reasonable deals done. I think he'll look to pick up a young SS/3B like a Zobrist but may look to a bigger prospect as well.

Chuck - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#174744) #

The past two years, Ricciardi's message was clear, at least to me. "I've got money and I'm prepared to spend it. Agents, please don't disregard Toronto as a potential destination for your clients (Burnett, Ryan, Thomas). GM's, if you are looking to unload some salary, keep my number on your speed dial (Hillenbrand, Glaus)."

He wanted Toronto to be considered a "player" in the acquisition market with Uncle Ted's chequebook at his disposal. His current posture sends out a decidedly different message, at least with respect to spending dollars. You're right, though, that it doesn't preclude him from making any talent-based (as opposed to cash-based) trades.

Still, I am expecting tweaking, nothing more.

Pistol - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#174747) #

I just looked at BP's adjusted standings. Every team in the AL East has underperformed by 2.5 games, with the Jays at 5.2 games. Just a coincidence, or is there a reason that would happen?

MatO - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#174748) #

Don't see this posted anywhere but they just had Mickey Brantley on the FAN and he will be let go after the season. I guess this is not unexpected.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#174750) #

The AL East as a whole underperformed their Pythagorean W-L significantly. It would be interesting to know what the AL East record and Pythagorean record was in non-intradivisional games.

Dez - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#174752) #

Just an unrelated note. The Pirates have hired Neal Huntington to be their GM. I guess that means Tony Lacava will stay with the Jays. Good news!

grjas - Wednesday, September 26 2007 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#174764) #

The Jays, I think, need to take a serious run next year before it is too late. I would be shocked if AJ doesn't opt out at year end given the seller's market in pitching, and the Yankees young pitchers are looking scary, and will only mature with age. I doubt there'll be much new money in the BJ kitty, so something major is probably unlikely.

I don't share the optimism that hitting will turn around sufficiently. Stairs, Thomas, Glaus, and Zaun are aging and creaky- and that's almost half the lineup. While more offense at SS would be helpful, I doubt the BJ's will get a substantial offensive improvement without forking out big dollars. (might be best to look for a lefty platoon partner to spell an overworked McDonald).

I would trade Lind and a young pitcher for a LF with pop or speed (ideally LH..). Lind is expendable with Snider on the way, pitching would still be deep, and the flexible Johnson allows you to spell any of the 3 outfielders as well as providing backup for injury. With Johnson- and hopefully Stairs- on the bench, the manager can also pinch hit for SS late in every game the Jays are losing.

The Yankees and Sox are getting tougher. We need more ponies under the hood to get the job done, and methinks we are running out of time....

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