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Features QOTD: First Round-itis?

Until Damon hit that home run yesterday, I thought it was all my fault. See, going into the first round of this year's playoffs, I thought there were four teams who were clearly better than their opponents in the four series at hand.

Yup, LAA was obviously the best team in the AL, just a noodge ahead of NYY. And CHC and PHI would make for a fun traditionally-loveable-losers NLCS bracket, certainly (the NL West never wins anything, after all). Then yesterday I found myself one dominating Jake Westbrook start -- that never came, of course -- from all four being swept in the first round. 

So as we just barely avoid the first "four-sweeps-and-out" first round of the Wild Card era, here's a couple of simple questions for you ...



  • What surprised you in the first round?
  • What, if any, trends do you see going forward toward the World Series?
  • Which player now holds the pole position for World Series MVP?
  • Five teams left ... rank 'em by their chance to win it all.

On that last one, here's mine:

  1. Boston (that's hard to write --  hope I'm wrong!)
  2. Colorado (riding the streak of all streaks at the right time)
  3. Arizona (they can't keep it up, can they?)
  4. Cleveland (Still have to get past NYY)
  5. New York/AL (If they beat Cleveland, they zoom to the top of this list)


Posted by Mick Doherty on Monday, October 08 2007 @ 10:39 AM EDT.
QOTD: First Round-itis? | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mathesond - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#175086) #
What surprised me in the first round was, really, the lack of overall competitiveness. The teams that were swept were outclassed pretty much from the get-go, and the Game 3 efforts by the losing teams in the sweeps were unimpressive, from what I saw.

Trends going forward - Viva la bullpens! No surprise that teams that don't have a dominant starting 4 in their rotation invest in power arms that individually can be generally relied on the get 3 outs, and collectively to shut out opponents for 3+ innings.

Player holding the pole position for MVP? Well, to seemingly contradict my previous statement, I am pulling for Fausto Carmona to throw 16 innings of 2-run ball in the Fall Classic as Cleveland ends a 59-year stretch of also-random.

And to rank them, Cleveland, Boston, (tie) NL champ, NYY. Yep, a big upset if the Bombers knock off the boys from Lake Erie, but even if they do, and then topple the Beantowners, they will be bested by the NL West representative.

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Gerry - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#175094) #

I can't disagree with your ranking Mick.

Thoughts:  How did two teams with no depth in pitching, the Phillies and the Cubs, make it to the playoffs?  I know the Mets collapsed to allow the Phillies in but the Phillies rotation had Cole Hamels and pray for rain.  I guess the Mets rotation wasn't much better.

The big time gap between series could just change the dynamic for the NLDS.  Will the players who were "hot" stay hot or go cold with no game play?

What are the odds of a Cleveland win tonight with Paul Byrd pitching, 15% - 20%?

If the Yankees comeback and beat Cleveland will Roger Clemens try and pitch in the next round?  Will the Yankees let him?

Other than the AL East there is plenty of changeover in division winners.  In the AL East Tampa and Baltimore haven't been good enough to win, so the Jays might be in a unique position, a reasonably good team up against the big boys.  Don't expect any other teams to be ready to do anything to help the jays as it doesn't impact them.

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Mike Green - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#175095) #
What was not fully appreciated before the NLDS was how much better the NL West has become.  It was a better division than the NL Central from the outset, but by the end of the season, the difference was quite large as the young stars in the West matured.  The Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies were all pretty good clubs, and the Dodgers weren't half bad. 
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jeff mcl - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#175097) #
If Roger Clemens is indeed done for the season, he will have been paid just under $1 million per start after producing a 6-6 record and ERA+ 104.   Carl Pavano did him one better by collecting just under $1 million for each of his 11 IP.  Manager Joe Torre is making a modest $7 million.   Kei Igawa's 6.25 ERA and WHIP of 1.67 cost the Yankees a posting fee of $26 million and a further $20 million in salary over 5 years...

I knew the Yankees were stinking rich, but sweet Jesus, what a reckless disregard for cash!
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Alex Obal - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#175098) #
I see the Rockies as a prohibitive favorite to beat the Diamondbacks in the next round. They slug real good. So prohibitive, in fact, that I'd gladly take the Rockies to win it all at 4-1 right now, even though they'd be my underdog in the World Series against any of the AL teams.

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AWeb - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#175099) #
Surprises: How bad the teams looked in losing. An average of 2 runs per game against Boston, Colorado, and Arizona (if nothing else, three premier hitting parks) is pretty anemic, great pitching or not. This lead to a lack of thrilling finishes, overall. A lot of  close games in the middle innings, but I don't remember anyone seriously threatening to overcome a deficit in the ninth.  Manny Ramirez hitting two 450 ft HRs surprised me, and I think put Boston at the top of the favourites list again. Colorado continuing to roll surprised me; I didn't think Philly would look so bad, especially with their triple-headed MVP monster of a lineup.

Trends: The NL West will send someone to the series, and both teams looked far superior to their opponents, but aside from that, I don't think 3 games establish much in the way of trends.

WS MVP:  Well, Beckett has got the hype machine going now, which given his post-season resume to this point, is certainly justifiable. Drew in Arizona is likely the MVP for them so far. The Rockies got 3 saves from Corpas, and Matsui is the type of guy post-season MVP voters love (small sample overachievers) if he keeps it going. But none of this really affects WS MVP, since that is for the WS only.

Boston, Colorado, Arizona, Cleveland, NYY. The winner of the last series probably jumps in front of the NL teams, since the AL is still a better league, although after St. Louis last year, I won't claim the NL has no chance again.
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Chuck - Monday, October 08 2007 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#175106) #

I knew the Yankees were stinking rich, but sweet Jesus, what a reckless disregard for cash!

I don't think they'd have knowingly forked out that cash to any of Clemens, Pavano or Igawa if they knew beforehand what they'd be getting. But do they take risks that no one else can afford to? Absolutely.

Should be an interesting rotation next year. Clemens will surely retire. Pettitte may retire, though I imagine the Yanks will coax another year out of him. Mussina is under contract for one more year, but that tank looks empty. Igawa has looked awful this year. Three very young guys with a lot of potential, Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain, run the risk of being seriously overworked on an undermanned team that doesn't accept losing. Just watch Scott Boras get Kyle Lohse $10M to throw 180 mediocre innings.

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Wildrose - Tuesday, October 09 2007 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#175114) #
Jays hire new hitting coach.
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John Northey - Tuesday, October 09 2007 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#175115) #
Gary Denbo does sound like the right guy for the job.  The Yankees have had a killer offense and have produced good hitters for years.  Taking their organizational guy away should both help the Jays and hurt the Yankees.  The year he was their ML hitting coach they were 5th in runs per game vs 6th the season before and 1st the year after.  Doesn't say a lot one way or the other but doesn't hurt his case given he was running the minors hitting for them at that point.

I guess we'll see if the Jay hitters listen to him.  The Mike Lowell story is a good bit so lets  hope.
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jgadfly - Tuesday, October 09 2007 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#175126) #
RE: Denbo hiring... Now all the Jays need to do is hire the guy who fast-tracked "Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain" through the Yankee system ...or at least find out how the heck he did it.
[ Reply to This ]
QOTD: First Round-itis? | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.