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After a visit to the Hardball Times I saw that today was the deadline to finalize the 40 man roster for this year's class. The Jays 40 man roster is currently full.


As you may recall there were changes in the CBA a year ago that gave teams another year to keep players in the minor without the need to add them to the 40 man roster. A snippet from BA:
The major league portion of the Rule 5 draft will be affected by giving teams one extra year to protect players from it.

Rather than teams being allowed three years (for players signed at age 19 or older) or four years (for players 18 and younger) before leaving them off the 40-man roster subjects them to the Rule 5 draft, those periods have been lengthened to four and five.


I believe that the 2004 and 2003 draft class now needs to be protected or exposed to the Rule 5 draft (the change in the CBA made it a double year this year).

From the 2004 class I believe only David Purcey would be protected. He's always been considered to have excellent stuff, but doesn't always harness it. However, he's coming off an excellent AFL campaign. Thigpen, Lind, Litsch and Janssen are already on the 40 man roster from this draft class.

I don't expect them to be added to the 40 man roster, but I think some consideration would be given to Mike MacDonald, Kyle Yates, and Aaron Mathews.

From 2003 Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum and Josh Banks are already on the 40 man roster. I can't see anyone else from that draft that would be a consideration.

So who might be removed? In no particular order: Ryan Houston, Jean Machi, Davis Romero, Ty Taubenheim, Tracy Thorpe, Russ Adams, Joe Inglett and Rey Olmedo.

If I were to guess I'd say the Jays would add Purcey and drop Inglett. If they were to sign a free agent catcher or another backup infielder/outfielder they'd have to free up another spot or two. I'd be surprised if a player was selected by the Jays in the Rule 5 draft.

40 Man Shuffle | 132 comments | Create New Account
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PeterG - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 01:07 PM EST (#176325) #
I would not drop Inglett. We need some depth (even if at AAA) at the infield position. I also would not consider dropping Davis Romero. Probably, the man to leave off the 40 man IMO is Thorpe. He has been in the system a long time without ever showing much.
 
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 01:42 PM EST (#176326) #
Houston's pitching in Venezuela I believe, and fairly well last I saw - for what it's worth.  I agree about Davis Romero being protected, though since nobody has access to his medicals, I doubt anybody would risk taking him in the Rule 5.
Barry Bonnell - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 01:47 PM EST (#176327) #

Tom Verducci of SI.com has an article on the Jay's chances in '08.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/tom_verducci/11/20/bluejays.aleast/index.html

ayjackson - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 02:55 PM EST (#176330) #

Here's a little summary of how the Jays did at fall ball....

  • David Purcey, LHSP, AFL - 22 IP, 13 H, 9 BB, 25 K, 1.23 ERA, 0.91 GO/AO
  • Ricky Romero, LHRP, AFL - 11.2 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 12 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.00 GO/AO
  • Travis Snider, RF, AFL - .316/.404/.541/.945, 15/29 BB/K
  • Sergio Santos, 3B, AFL - .319/.337/.585/.922, 3/15 BB/K
  • Ryan Patterson, LF, AFL - .275/.348/.450/.798, 9/14 BB/K
  • Anthony Hatch, 3B, HWL - .273/.343/.446/.789, 11/21 BB/K
  • Brian Jeroloman, C, HWL - .237/.378/.356/.734, 14/9 BB/K

 

Bailey - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 03:19 PM EST (#176331) #
jgadfly - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 03:23 PM EST (#176332) #
Josh Towers is being offered arbitration (?)... can he be taken off the 40 man list and what would happen if he was claimed ?
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 03:25 PM EST (#176333) #

The Jays added Purcey to the roster and DFA Haerther.

Am I missing something or is this a little baffling.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 03:31 PM EST (#176334) #
I guess. Haerther was, I believe, a six year minor league free agent, so it didn't cost the Jays anything to acquire him.  If he is chosen by another club in the Rule 5 draft, the Jays make $50,000 in the process. 

Count your 50Ks and the millions will take care of themselves!

Pistol - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 04:20 PM EST (#176337) #
But I believe that another team can claim Haerther now just like the Jays claimed him.  They just might be trying to slip him through now with teams filling up the 40 man rosters.  I seem to recall them doing this a couple years ago with someone else - maybe Brian Tallet?

I almost included Haerther in the candidates to be dropped but I figured he would have been ahead of the minor league relievers I mentioned.
Thomas - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 05:43 PM EST (#176341) #
I seem to recall them doing this a couple years ago with someone else - maybe Brian Tallet?

IIRC, it was Tallet. I seem to recall them trading Buzachero for him and then dropping him like a week later.

There are a couple of guys I'd value less than Haerther on the 40-man, so I'm surprised by the move, too. Although it may work in the end, just like it did with Tallet.

Wildrose - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 05:58 PM EST (#176342) #
Godfrey on CNBC ( business channel ) talking about the rising dollar and it's effect on the team. He states  the squad does not yet have a 2008 budget number (why so late, is the Roger's braintrust pre- occupied with getting an N.F.L. franchise?) but does point out the prior budgets have been correlated to the dollar. What was the dollar at the start of the season?
R Billie - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 07:03 PM EST (#176343) #

I have a hard time believing the Jays don't have a pretty good idea what their budget will be.  I think they've found that publically announcing how much they have to spend has probably not gained them any leverage in free agent or incumbent contract negotiations.

I think the real answer to the budget question is it's kind of open depending on what opportunities are present.

Wildrose - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 07:10 PM EST (#176344) #

I think the real answer to the budget question is it's kind of open depending on what opportunities are present.

I agree 100 %, as much as I don't particularly like this approach from a fan's standpoint , it is the absolute correct way to go in a  competitive market. Parsing the tea leaves I'm skeptical of the $ 4 million left in the kitty amount  as discussed by Ricciardi   in the Blair interview.


melondough - Tuesday, November 20 2007 @ 09:18 PM EST (#176347) #

What was the dollar at the start of the season?

1 cdn $ = 0.859 USD to close 2006.

Go to: http://www.advisor.ca/bulletin/archive/index.jsp and simply choose the date you want information for.  You will find the currency info. about half way down the pop up page, mixed in with the closeing values of many of the major world indices for that day.

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 12:44 AM EST (#176348) #
On an unrelated note, a friend of mine just told me that Jays farmhand Drew Taylor works in the same biomedical engineering lab as him here at U of T. Drew is doing a PhD or perhaps even an MD/PhD, I can't remember which.
Dave Rutt - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 12:47 AM EST (#176349) #
Taylor is also the son of Ron Taylor, a former reliever who compiled a 91 ERA+ in 800 innings at the big league level and later became the Jays' team physician.
FranklyScarlet - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 06:47 AM EST (#176351) #
Gerry - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 08:18 AM EST (#176352) #
Cathcart was the hitting coach in New Hampshire in 2006.  In 2007 Cathcart became the manager of the Lansing Lugnuts and led them to a division title.  Cathcart lives in the New Hampshire area and is conducting off-season clinics for kids in Manchester.  His appointment had been speculated for those reasons so it is not a surprise.  The Jays now have an opening for a manager in Lansing.
Lucky - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 09:23 AM EST (#176356) #
When and where can we find the AAA and AA list of protected players?
Geoff - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 12:11 PM EST (#176362) #
Is nobody else bothered that a pretty good shortstop has been traded for a somewhat suspect starting pitcher, and a decent back-up catcher was traded for a struggling middle reliever coming off a long 50-game drug suspension.

I'd think that J.P. could have dealt from his strength in pitching to get Cabrera and/or Estrada.

I'd think Burnett is a more valuable player than Garland, and if the Angels sent Cabrera and cash for Garland, perhaps A.J. would net Cabrera and Ervin Santana.

What would the Jays need more for next year? Another season of Burnett or a season of Cabrera and Estrada?

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 12:26 PM EST (#176363) #
A couple interesting unprotected names that the Jays might have some use for, if they are looking to improve the bench even after the addition of Scutaro:

Tug Hulett can play 2B/3B/SS, he has a career .398 OBP with a solid batting average, and his father played in the majors. He also has a full season of Triple-A experience and showed improved power. He lacks athleticism.

James D'Antona can play 3B/1B/C and was a second round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2003. He has power potential, doesn't strike out a ton and takes his fair share of walks. His 43 doubles this season, suggest he could have more power available. He has plus make-up.

Justin Hedrick is a right-handed Double-A pitcher who has an average fastball and solid slider and has struck out 10.94 batters per nine innings in his career. He allowed fewer than seven hits per nine innings this season, although his control is a little spotty (3.87/9 in his career). He is a former sixth round pick of the Giants.

FranklyScarlet - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 12:50 PM EST (#176365) #
You can read more about James D'Antona in
The Last Best League
by Jim Collins...

Takes you through the Wake Forest experience and his summer on the Cape.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 02:22 PM EST (#176371) #

Rotoworld is reporting that Josh Hamilton is being shopped by the Reds. He's 26 now, a lefty thrower and hitter, 6' 4" 209 pounds. In 298 AB's he hit: 292/368/554 with an OPS of 922 and 19 dingers. He's not eligible for arbitration till after the 2010 season.

IF this guy would stay healthy, AND away from his recreational pharmaceutical challenges he might be a cracker jack pick up. Maybe for Frasor and Romero? Too much? Too little?

Skills - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 06:17 PM EST (#176377) #

Yeah I definitely forgot about Cabrera as an option. But seeing that trade makes me think the Jays could have put together a package for him.

Off the topic, Tracy Ringolsby has an article up at at Foxsports that absolutely rails on the Jays. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7469504.

Most of the criticism leveled against Ricciardi is appropriate, but Ringolsby is a little too willing to assume the Jays similarly have the lack of monetary constraints that the Sox and Yanks do, plus he totally ignores anything positive. Particularly, I was pissed off to see him refer to both Adams and Hill as "journeyman" former shortstops. For Adams thats fine, but for Hill that statement indicates a total lack of knowledge. I don't know if I can think of another young 2B I'd rather have. Pedroia and Kendrick sure look good, but with what we've seen from Hill so far, I find it hard to consider him a bust in any way.

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 06:23 PM EST (#176378) #
Frasor and Romero is way too little - I don't know what the Reds are looking for, but I expect Marcum would be a start and maybe McGowan would be needed instead. Hamilton is premium talent and will be very cheap in his prime years.

We don't need an outfielder that much though, unless you really want him in left. I'd rather get a SS. I'm also a bit worried about his immune system/general organ functions: this year he was sick for quite a while, and he stated that his body did suffer some permanent damage from the drug use. Additionally, while I don't know much about addiction, I get the sense that the possibility of him losing his way is not insignificant.

That the Reds are shopping him at all may be an indicator that it's best to stay away.

He's not eligible for arbitration till after the 2010 season.

I think you mean until after the '09 season.

Gerry - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 07:10 PM EST (#176380) #

Lee Gronkiewicz has signed with Boston.  I also believe, although not 100% verified, that Jamie Vermilyea has opted for free agency.

Per BA the Jays have signed  RHP Scott Richmond, RHP Jeremy Zick, SS Pedro Lopez, and SS Hector Luna.  Zick and Luna played in the Jays system in 2007, Pedro Lopez was a waiver claim.  Scott Richmond might be a Canadian who has played independent ball, again I am not 100% sure if it's the same guy.

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 07:30 PM EST (#176381) #
I'm sorry to see Gronk go - he could have been seriously useful. Ryan Roberts signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, reported by Rotoworld.
AWeb - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 09:17 PM EST (#176383) #
From the foxsports article linked to above:

Five years ago it was a franchise that was investing its future in defensively challenged Eric Hinske at third base, took umbrage at the suggestion it was a bad deal, four years later proclaimed he was just what the Jays expected all along — a backup on the corners — and then unloaded him.

Wow, that seems like a few new pieces of information pulled out of thin air. I don't remember the Jays ever saying they expected Hinske to be a corner infield backup all along, and that's exactly the total nonsense from the Jays that often gets ripped apart around here. And the Jays hardly invested their future in Hinske; it's not like they ponied up 5 years at 15 million per year. I also agree with the general point though, factual errors aside. The Jays have peaked out with this payroll and GM in the last few years, and seem to be waiting around trying to hit a lucky year (which could happen, and I hope happens, but it hasn't yet).  At least spend money on the draft. The Tigers have shown how great that strategy can work out, among the non-huge spenders.

Also, the article really drives home the point someone made here with a comment recently about the Jays' job being doubly hard because players are willing to sign (resign) with the Yankees and Red Sox at below market value. Lowell only getting three years @ 12.5 million seems well below what another team might offer. And Schilling, it seems to me, could have gotten a lot more than 1 year and 8 million (look at his numbers the last two years...they're pretty damn good). Posada and Rivera seemingly had no intention of going on the open market.  Pettitte, a 36 year old above average lefty who is just as good now as he was 7-8 years ago and a shot at 300 wins if he decides to keep pitching (201 after his age 35 season), is another who will only play in a few places, and seems unlikely to consider signing for more money anywhere else. While players taking less money to stay where they like is an admirable trend in some ways, it really hurts the Jays right now outside of the Halladay extension a few years ago. Or was Wells' contract a hometown discount? One struggles to remember when it seemed a reasonable price. Hope Wells reminds me in 2008.
timpinder - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 09:42 PM EST (#176384) #
We always seem to read about Lester, Chamberlain, Buckholz, Kennedy, Hughes, Pedroia, and Elsbury on ESPN, FoxSports, etc...  The Yankees and Red Sox are applauded for developing them, yet Ricciardi is bashed and the Jays' recent "reinforcements" of McGowan, Janssen, Marcum, Litsch and Lind are ignored.  The Jays' farm system is not as weak as some might suggest.  Snider, Purcey, Romero, Cecil and some others represent the next wave.
timpinder - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 09:58 PM EST (#176385) #
It's off topic, but I've read a couple of reports now that indicate the Orioles are desperate to trade Miguel Tejada and are looking for power bullpen arms.  If the Jays could get Tejada for a reliever and/or prospects not named Snider, I'd be a happy fan.  Tejada would be an upgrade at SS for 2008 and could spell Glaus at 3B if Glaus is injured or suspended.  He would provide insurance at 3B in 2009 incase Glaus opts out of his contract.  Rios/Tejada/Overbay/Thomas/Glaus/Wells/Stairs/Hill/Zaun would be one helluva lineup.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 10:09 PM EST (#176386) #
I wish Gronk the best.  The man deserves a shot, but as a homer, I hope that in the end, he gets his full shot in the NL. 
John Northey - Wednesday, November 21 2007 @ 10:18 PM EST (#176387) #
I hope Gronk gets his shot in Boston in '08 as odds are it will mean a series of injuries and/or ineffectiveness has occurred to the rest of their pen :)
Mick Doherty - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 12:50 AM EST (#176388) #
Didn't see the Rotoworld item, but according to Jamey Newberg, Roberts signed with the Rangers, not the Cubs.
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 05:26 AM EST (#176389) #

Scott Richmond might be a Canadian who has played independent ball, again I am not 100% sure if it's the same guy.

Yes, it is.  He pitched for the Edmonton Cracker-Cats of the Northern League last season.  Click here for story.

Checking out my scorebook, I saw Richmond 5 times at Telus Field.  He went 2-2 with a no decision, which came in the final game of the year.  The 'Cats bullpen pissed that one (and countless others) away.  Only one of the starts I saw I would consider bad.  The other loss was one bad inning after holding Calgary down for the first 4 or 5 innings but the 'Cats offence only scored one run for him anyway.  Even though ex-big leaguers Mike Johnson and Lou Pote were in the 'Cats rotation, Richmond was definitely the ace of the staff.  

Unfortunately, there's no radar gun at the field the locals call the "Phone Booth" so I can't give you an exact idea of what he throws.  A quick glance of my scorecards showed he tended to get more flyball outs than groundouts but you can afford to pitch that way at Telus Field, which is pretty spacious and home runs were pretty rare out of the dozen or so games I went to. 

He's certainly pitched well enough to earn a shot with a big league team and I'm happy it's with the Jays.  That's two prominent Northern Leaguers they have signed this season after snagging reliever Chad Blackwell from Gary. Here's more background on Richmond from the Northern League's website.

Maldoff - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 09:18 AM EST (#176390) #
It appears that the Angels (?!) have signed Torii Hunter.  Do we think this means they have officially given up on Gary Matthews? Or just realized his career year was HGH-aided?
Noah - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 10:05 AM EST (#176391) #
Yah they claim that they're going to have Matthews as a DH and fill-in for the outfield spots.  Seems like an incredibly expensive bench player to many.

Especially someone who's locked up for the next 4 years at 10+ million dollars.  Good luck moving that contract boys... :-p

ayjackson - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 10:50 AM EST (#176393) #
Cody Haerther is on his way back to St. Louis.  Cody, we hardly knew ye!
John Northey - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 10:55 AM EST (#176394) #
Looks like the Angels have learned the meaning of 'sunk cost'.  Matthews had one amazing year and the Angels went stupid on it, but if they want to win they just had to accept it was money thrown out and then decide how to win from now on.  Matthews is a lifetime 96 OPS+ so he has some value but it is as a quality 4th outfielder or platoon partner ala Reed Johnson, not as an all-star CF.

The Jays showed they could accept this type of thing, although not to this degree, years ago with Mondesi.  However, it is hard for a team to go 'yup, wasted that $50 million, should've spent $10 instead.  As to Vernon Wells, he is lifetime 108 which Matthews has passed only twice (3 times in 9 seasons he was above 100) vs Wells being under 100 just 2 times in 6 full seasons.

What about Hunter vs Wells?  If the Jays waited until this winter they could've picked between them.

Wells: 2 seasons above 120, 4 above 100, 2 below 100.
Hunter: 2 above 120, 6 above 100, 3 below.

Wells: Enter age 29 season
Hunter: Entering age 32 season

Wells: signed for average of $18 per year over 7 years ($126 , just counting extension)
Hunter: signed for average of $18 per year over 5 years ($90 million)

Wells: Signed for ages 29 through age 35 season
Hunter: Signed for ages 33 through age 36 season

Both signed after a peak season, but Hunter's peak was age 31 and at 122 (a 124 at age 26 could be viewed as equal or better).  Wells was age 27 at 129, slightly worse than his peak at 132 at age 24.

Despite Wells poor season last year I have to say the Jays still read the market fairly well.  $18 per year through his age 35 season sounds better than Hunter for $18 per year through age 36 season.  The Jays get a good part of Wells' prime years (29-32) with just 3 years in the traditional decline phase (over age 32).  Hunter on the other hand will be paid for just decline years.  Guess we'll see eh?  
timpinder - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 11:11 AM EST (#176396) #

John,

as soon as I saw that Hunter had signed for $18 million per year I immediately did my own comparison.  Add in the fact that Wells' last three "declining" years are also his opt-out years, and that if he decides to stay with the Jays he'll have to accept a pay-cut from his age 32 season, and right now the Wells contract looks pretty good indeed.

 

ANationalAcrobat - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 11:15 AM EST (#176397) #
It is worth noting that Bill Stoneman signed Matthews to that ridiculous deal, and that Tony Reagins is the new Angels GM. It is certainly be much easier for Reagins to admit the contract is not working out than for Stoneman to do it, and now Matthews is a borderline starter.
ANationalAcrobat - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 11:39 AM EST (#176398) #
Didn't see the Rotoworld item, but according to Jamey Newberg, Roberts signed with the Rangers, not the Cubs.

My mistake, I must have misread it. Rotoworld has him with the Rangers as well.

MatO - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 01:09 PM EST (#176401) #
Anything Ringolsby says about the Jays has to be taken with a grain of salt.  He's been anti-Ricciardi mainly because Ricciardi is associated with Billy Beane and Ringolsby doesn't like Beane.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 01:28 PM EST (#176402) #

Ringolsby really, really doesn't like Beane. Especially since Moneyball author Michael Lewis lumped Ringolsby in as a member of the "Ladies' Auxiliary" of the baseball media in a subsequent article.

 

Dave Rutt - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 01:38 PM EST (#176403) #
According to THT's fielding stats, Matthews doesn't handle balls in his zone too well (though he's not the worst), but makes an impressive number of out of zone plays (3rd in the AL last year behind Ichiro and Granderson). He also has a pretty good arm. Vlad, on the other hand, has a great arm, but not much else, ranking near the bottom in both RZR and OOZ in 2006 and 2007. GMJ isn't a bad player. His contract sure makes him look like one, but he's got speed, defense, and his lowest OPS+ in the last 4 years is 93.

Given that, I think the Angels should increase Vlad's time at DH. He played about 40 games there last year, and he's going to be a full time DH within a couple years anyway.

Even with Vlad at DH there's a logjam in the outfield, but it's one of those "good" problems. Sciosia is one of the best managers in the AL, and I think he'd do a good job at finding the hot hand among Willits, Matthews and Anderson (though without doing any sort of analysis, I have a feeling Anderson isn't a great defender, so in the case that he has the hot hand Vlad moves back into right).
jmoney - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 04:34 PM EST (#176404) #
Well perhaps I'm becoming more jaded with age, but this is the first season I've been really down on the Jays. I know the offseason basically just started but the idea that the Jays are gonna standpat with glaring holes when they're very likely swimming in cash is disconcerting to this fan.
ayjackson - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 05:22 PM EST (#176405) #
Well perhaps I'm becoming more jaded with age, but this is the first season I've been really down on the Jays. I know the offseason basically just started but the idea that the Jays are gonna standpat with glaring holes when they're very likely swimming in cash is disconcerting to this fan.

Have you seen the FA class?  On whom would you have them spend these untold millions?  And where are these glaring holes?  SS?  I think we've seen that when considering defence and offence, JMac is just slightly below average at SS (assuming 2007 wasn't a defensive outlier).  Outfield - solid.  Catcher - solid.  First base - solid.  Second base - solid.  Third base - solid, but durability/suspension concerns.  Starting pitching - very solid.  Bullpen - solid.  Bench - needs improvement.

parrot11 - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 05:48 PM EST (#176406) #
Anything Ringolsby says about the Jays has to be taken with a grain of salt.  He's been anti-Ricciardi mainly because Ricciardi is associated with Billy Beane and Ringolsby doesn't like Beane.     I really don't care too much who wrote it. I look at the article and think of the message that it's saying. And he's right, the Jays are longshots to make the playoffs. And he made a good point that the Jays can't expect to compete if they're getting beat in both free agency and drafting/farm system.
John Northey - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 06:22 PM EST (#176407) #
I think the big problem with the Jays right now is we have lots of solid, league average type players (a few above, a few below but nothing amazing either way).  This is much like the late 90's which is a bit scary. 

Glaring holes are easy to fix (well, at least to picture a solution for).  However, average players stick around and you feel you are OK but never get off the 500 treadmill.  High ceiling players (such as Rios) are what we need here to move up to the Boston/NYY level. 

So right now who is here that could be an all-star, someone who any team would like to have, someone who could have a season where you say 'he was the best there was at his position' ala the WS years with Alomar, Olerud, Fernandez, Molitor, Winfield, and viewed that way with Carter & White not to mention pitching with Henke, Ward, Hentgen, Morris, Key, Cone, maybe Stewart (he was past his prime and it was well known he was by this point).

Now we have Rios, Wells (if he recovers from last season), Glaus (if healthy - major if).  Solid guys are Thomas (past prime), Hill (solid but doubt will ever be viewed as the best in the league even in a career year), Overbay, Zaun.  Mediocre who can be solid are Johnson, Lind, Stairs (last year was way above what to expect).

Pitching wise we are in much better shape as Halladay, AJ, and McGowan all have Cy Young raw skills.  Marcum, Litsch, Chacin, are guys who should fight it out for the #5 slot and in a peak season can do what Towers did in '05 but should not be counted on for more than league average stuff.  Accardo has hit his peak but should be a good setup man, BJ is a peak guy, the rest are solid but not guys who will be top 1/2 of the league in payroll.

Hmm.  Looking at the staff we do have a team that can be a contender.  The hitters are the scary part.  We have 3 guys who can be top 5 at their position, 4 who can be average, and 3 sharing a position hoping to be average.  When things go sour (as they did this season) it gets ugly. 

There is hope here.  I think the frustration is the feeling that the team could improve but chooses to put financial restraints that are not needed onto itself.  We'll see what happens over the next few months and I figure we'll have a team that teases us in '08 but comes up short again.  Still, it sure beats being a Tampa or Baltimore fan.


greenfrog - Thursday, November 22 2007 @ 10:22 PM EST (#176409) #
I think the main problem with the Jays is the lack of a coherent long-term plan. What is the plan, anyway? JP has made his share of mistakes, but he's also made some good moves. I think he's an average GM who flubbed a couple of key opportunities in the draft (always easy to second-guess in hindsight). But ownership hasn't stepped up and committed to deliver the goods, despite being a highly successful company in a major (and fast-growing) market. (Commitment could mean a competitive budget; securing access to Japan, the DR or other foreign markets; maybe even a new GM and president.) Instead, we get magical thinking (for instance, that Royce Clayton is a legitimate starting shortstop) and perennial excuses (not enough money; we could have been a contender if it weren't for the injuries).

So in one respect Ringolsby is right: the message does seem to be tolerance of mediocrity.
Mylegacy - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 01:15 AM EST (#176410) #
jmoney said: "Well perhaps I'm becoming more jaded with age, but this is the first season I've been really down on the Jays. I know the offseason basically just started but the idea that the Jays are gonna standpat with glaring holes when they're very likely swimming in cash is disconcerting to this fan."
And others have echoed similar thoughts - to you all I say - balderdash and hogswallows!   We have 1 true offensive appalling sinkhole, the incumbent however happens to be a near Golve Glove defensive player and that is of course, JMac - the Prime Minister.   Offensively, we have plus players (if healthy - and they can't all break every bloody limb, or tear every shoulder muscle every year!) in the persons of : Rios, Thomas, Glaus, and Wells. And, very solid players in Overbay, Hill, Stairs, Zaun and Johnson.   Our starters are at least the equal of anyones - Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum and one of Litsch, Chacin or dare I say - Purcey (by mid-season perhaps?)   Our pen is OUTSTANDING, absolutely FANTASTIC - Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, Wolfe, League, Downs, Tallet, Frasor. Could be the best pen of any team team in either league!   We are holding steady with a straight flush. This team has a very good chance of getting to the playoffs as is. Having said that, I'd like to see Tejada's bat in there - BUT I don't blame JP for having the nerve to play these guys. If we've got more money, and I think we all agree more is there - then I say keep it till we see what we need as the season unfolds.
John Northey - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 08:00 AM EST (#176411) #
Mylegacy, good point on the cash.  Better not to spend it on some shiny trinket we don't need (such as Hunter) and save for something we do need.  Few pitchers and hitters on the market are of any real interest to the Jays.  I wanted A-Rod here badly (as everyone knows) and feel the Jays could've afforded him easily, but it seems he wanted to stay a Yankee (gotta figure the Angels would've paid $300 million given what they just blew on CF).  Posada was a potential upgrade who again wanted to stay a Yankee.  Bonds looks like he could be in jail.   The only other potential upgrade would've been signing a #1/#2 starter for the #4 hole in the rotation.  However, what free agents fit that profile?

So, the Jays holding cash until a solid trade comes up makes sense.  It sucks as a fan (I want them to do something noooooow!!!!!!) but as a team I can understand it.  It isn't like the Yanks or Sox improved outside of holding on to what they had while Baltimore and Tampa are, well, Baltimore and Tampa :)

Last year we had sub-100 OPS from the following regulars...
CA: Zaun - 98
1B: Overbay - 85 (this one hurt)
SS: McDonald - 61
LF: Lind - 77, Johnson - 66
CF: Wells - 85

Zaun, McDonald, and Overbay are 30+ which puts a ? beside their ability to come back.

Lifetime OPS+
Zaun:  90
Overbay: 111
McDonald: 58
Lind: 91
Johnson: 95
Wells: 108


bryanttelfer - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 10:24 AM EST (#176412) #

I don't think Overbay's year can be considering anything other than an outlier. Hand injuries are notoriously difficult to come back from quickly, and the raw physical changes to Overbay's swing was pretty obvious. He started topping balls because he couldn't get the bathead through the zone fast enough, because his hand just couldn't manage it that quickly after the injury, and as a result, ended up chasing junk because he could put a solid swing on his normal pitch choices.

Much like Wells, I would be extremely surprised if '08 isn't at least a career average year from our 1B.

As for the free agent market, it does get frustrating when everyone talks about what's needed to upgrade and blames JP for not getting it without bothering to look at the market. It's a thin FA crop everywhere but CF, and there aren't a lot of options that represent major upgrades to the team. In my mind, Tejada only makes sense if you're looking to platoon both SS and 3B between him. A-Rod would have been a significant upgrade pretty much anywhere, but I disagree that without an offer ridiculously higher than anyone else, he would have wanted to play here. Posada had a career year, but was looking for a 4 year deal that would have seen him at 40 in the starting hole. Lots of potential ideas, but they all come with significant downsides too.

What the Jays should be looking for is a solid SS prospect, that's not more than a year for at least a platoon role and can hit. I'm happy with a Fernandez type, light hitting lead-off guy with speed. They need some left-handed starting depth, and they need a 3B option with some power. Other than that, the Jays are a contention team. Career numbers show an above average offence, a deep rotation, and easily the best field wide defense in the league. With solid starting pitching, you've got a contention team here.  

Paul D - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 10:54 AM EST (#176413) #

The Jays can expect below average production (offesively) at SS, left field, first base, and catcher.  Even if Zaun and Overbay have years which are closer to their averages, they'll still end up being below average.  An OPS+ of 111 from your first baseman is not enough.  95 from your leftfielder is no where near enough.   Actually, looking at the numbers, 90 from a catcher would be alright.

I hope that the Jays are having discussions about all the big names this season.  They're weak at both 1b and LF, I hope they call Florida and inquire about Miguel Cabrera.  (I'm not saying they should get him, maybe the price is too hight.  But players with that kind of offensive pedigree don't come along very often)

Skills - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 11:05 AM EST (#176414) #

And he made a good point that the Jays can't expect to compete if they're getting beat in both free agency and drafting/farm system.

Ringolsby is right that the Jays are longshots to make the playoffs, but the individual points he makes to support his argument are weak. Specifically, how are they supposed to "beat" the Yankees and Red Sox in free agency? The Ryan and Burnett signings were big ones that everyone railed on at the time, and while Ryan's injury effectively kills any value he might have, after last offseason, it became clear that the Burnett contract was a smart one. After all, Lilly and Meche (there was  a third but i can't remember off the top of my head) got paid the same amount and are held in lesser esteem.

So the Jays have been active in free agency, but how can they compete with teams that are able to retain aging stars like the Yanks and Red Sox? Giving these long contracts to Posada and Rivera is probably unwise, but it doesn't matter because the Yanks can afford to waste the money, especially if they get 1 or even 2 solid seasons out of them.

Second, while the college-only drafting strategy was misguided, people seem to forget that money impacts the farm system as well. After all, every year, Boras clients fall to the end of the first round and even into the second, not because they are not desired, but because no one wants to pay their lofty signing bonuses. No one, that is except the Yanks, Red Sox, and a few others. Thus, I would argue that the Yanks and Red Sox fiscal advantage carries into the draft and farm systems.

Basically, while Ricciardi has made a bunch of bonehead moves and implemented some ineffective tactics, Ringolsby pretends that money is not a factor in either the implementation or design of strategy in free agency or in the draft.

Rich - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 11:18 AM EST (#176415) #
I can't stand Tracy Ringolsby - always has an agenda, is never short on darts to throw, and doesn't let the facts get in the way of his opinions.  That said, for different reasons, I too share his lack of optimism about the 2008 Jays (sadly).

The problem is neither lack of ownership spending or commitment, nor the absence of sufficient big league talent.  The Jays' big weakness is the lack of talent in the minor leagues.  The offence is relying in large measure on a number of talented, but aging and fragile hitters - namely Glaus, Zaun, and Thomas (not to mention the return to form of Wells and Overbay).   Expecting them all to be healthy and that the team can afford 400+ AB's of Jonny Mac is just wishful thinking.  Hoping that everyone stays healthy is JP's only plan - there is no contingency if things start to go astray. 

7 years into his tenure I had expected the farm system to be littered with ready-to-go prospects at the upper levels, who could step in and contribute when the inevitable injuries occur, or else could be used as trade bait in mid-season deals to push the club over the hump.  This is what Beane did brilliantly for many years.  Are Thigpen, Adams, or Lind really capable of playing at a playoff-calibre level if forced to play regularly for a good stretch of time?  JP has developed all of 4 useful big leaguers thus far - Hill, Marcum, Janssen, and Bush and that's just not good enough to compete in the AL East.
Chuck - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 11:25 AM EST (#176416) #

As per Baseball-Reference, these are the average AL 2007 and 2006 OPS's per position:

CA  .713, .748
1B  .790, .819
2B  .755, .727
3B  .761, .780
SS  .713, .745
LF  .760, .797
CF  .754, .771
RF  .824, .817
DH  .802, .819
all   .761, .776

Some observations:

  • As expected, the bar for average shortstop and catcher is much lower than the league average. Zaun's 2007 OPS+ of 98 was for an OPS of .752, much higher than the league average.
  • LF was unusually low in 2007. It's really an 800-OPS position.
  • RF has been awfully high the past two seasons. As good as Rios is, that high bar precludes him from standing out dramatically from his peers. To put this in context: in 2007, Zaun out-edged his positional average by 39 whereas Rios out-edged his by "just" 28.
Mike Green - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 12:17 PM EST (#176420) #
The AL OPS averages for rightfielders being higher than first basemen, DHs and leftfielders over the last 2 years is quite unusual.  Small samples and all.

The Jay offence in 2008 looks to be generally slow, right-handed, with good power, and with modest abilities to get on base.  A return to form from Overbay would help that some.  A speedy left-fielder, who hits left, would be a nice addition.  Where is Luis Polonia when you need him?

Mike D - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 12:48 PM EST (#176421) #

Some terribly sad news:  the passing away, far too young, of Joe Kennedy.

SK in NJ - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 01:26 PM EST (#176422) #
The turning point for this core was letting Lilly, Speier, Catalanotto, and Molina go without getting any MLB ready compensation, and trading Hinske for a sack of nothing. I know people will chime in and say he got draft picks for them (minus Molina), but how is that going to help for 2008-2010? That's your starting LF, #3 starter, set-up man, catcher, and super utility bench player. The Jays replaced them with Matt Stairs (good), Tomo Ohka (ugh), Jason Phillips (double ugh), and Jason Smith (triple ugh). On top of that, JP gave what will turn out to be a 3-year deal for a 40-year old DH who outside of a hot last couple of (meaningless) weeks was a low-.800 OPS player for most of the year. The Jays threw away valuable assets for high school draft picks during their window of competing, which makes absolutely no sense. That's a big reason why the team is where they are at right now.

I know some here are trying to be optimistic, but this roster is 85 win calibre at best, barring some type of miracle where there are no injuries and everything clicks (yeah right). I'd be more inclined to move Burnett, Glaus, Thomas, etc, right now instead of chuggling along for another +.500 season with a flawed core.

jmoney - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 02:53 PM EST (#176427) #
Have you seen the FA class?  On whom would you have them spend these untold millions?  And where are these glaring holes?  SS?  I think we've seen that when considering defence and offence, JMac is just slightly below average at SS (assuming 2007 wasn't a defensive outlier).  Outfield - solid.  Catcher - solid.  First base - solid.  Second base - solid.  Third base - solid, but durability/suspension concerns.  Starting pitching - very solid.  Bullpen - solid.  Bench - needs improvement.

Solid isn't all that remarkable and it doesn't allow you compete in the AL East. 1B and LF are holes. I have no idea (maybe others do) of what Vernon Wells is going to be like next year. Glaus is falling apart and will have Steriod junk looming over him. Zaun and Thomas are older players that should be okay but could fall off a cliff.

The organization still seems to underfund the draft which could/should be the way this team competes with the Yankees and Red Sox. Instead they appear to be getting beat there as well.

You look at the amount of money MLB is raking in along with the rise in the Canadian dollar and you're not a bit disapointed with a GM saying that they're standing pat?
ayjackson - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 03:17 PM EST (#176428) #

Solid isn't all that remarkable and it doesn't allow you compete in the AL East.

Solid offence can take you to the World Series if you have a top three pitching staff - ask the Tigers; they did it with less than average offense.

1B and LF are holes.

Based on what?  Overbay was injured last year, and while he may be just average offense for 1B, he certainly isn't a hole.  Stairs/Johnson/Lind are certainly a variable in LF, but it isn't irrational to believe that we can get good production out of some combination of these players.

The organization still seems to underfund the draft which could/should be the way this team competes with the Yankees and Red Sox.

They have a philosophy to not work against the slotting system, I can't blame them.  If everyone did, nothing would be gained and salary structures would be upset.  You win at the draft by scouting properly, not by throwing more money at the problem.

Instead they appear to be getting beat there as well.

Bill James would disagree.

You look at the amount of money MLB is raking in along with the rise in the Canadian dollar and you're not a bit disapointed with a GM saying that they're standing pat?

There are zero attractive FAs out there.  I would not sign any of them.  I would work on trades, and I'm sure JP is - call him what you want, but he seems to be a busy bee.

So tell us - who would you sign to fix this rotten mess of a baseball team?  Or did you just come around to complain?

ayjackson - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 03:23 PM EST (#176429) #

The Jay offence in 2008 looks to be generally slow, right-handed, with good power, and with modest abilities to get on base. 

I was wondering the other day if there wasn't some way - with the help of a third team - that we could turn Troy Glaus into Eric Chavez.  The lineup would seem much more balanced.  I'm not sure if Chavez' three-year trend can continue or if he's just had too many injuries.  He apparently volunteered to waive his no-trade clause (8 teams, including the Jays) if Oakland was interested in moving him.

JustinD - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 03:27 PM EST (#176430) #
What I'm worried about is everyone writes off Overbay's dismal year last year as an aberration due to the hand injury. What I don't understand is why no one is pointing to his .230/.317/.396 713 OPS of April, which happened before the hand injury? I'm worried that his 07 might have been a combination of age related decline plus a hand injury. I'm not sure if the 06 Overbay will be back next year.

ayjackson - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 03:29 PM EST (#176431) #

What I don't understand is why no one is pointing to his .230/.317/.396 713 OPS of April, which happened before the hand injury? I'm worried that his 07 might have been a combination of age related decline plus a hand injury. I'm not sure if the 06 Overbay will be back next year.

There's nothing JP can do about it.  You don't assume a bad April is age related decline and go out and replace your 1Bman, whom you've recently extended, with an aging, over-priced free agent.

christaylor - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 04:03 PM EST (#176432) #
I can understand both those defending the current team and those who are pessimistic. After the '06 season, I thought the offense should have been upgraded (I thought Thomas was a good signing, unlike many I talked to at the time) and pitching was being too heaving emphasized with the team finishing 4th in the AL in pitching and 7th in offense (in terms of R/G). Now the situation has just become more extreme with the young pitchers coming in to their own in 2007.

What has bugged me the most (and it even bugged me at the end of '06) is Reed Johnson in LF. This team isn't going anywhere with him in LF... the .390 OBP in '06 was nice but it was a mirage. Johnson was injured last year, but even if health, the best the team can expect from him are is 04 or 05 numbers. That's totally unacceptable from LF which should be a position where the team gets plus offense. I can even hold my nose and swallow J-Mac at SS but Johnson. JP's worst move this off season will not be finding a real LF instead of having Johnson in LF. I don't have too many ideas and there's not really anyone out there in the FA crop (Wilkerson? He might be worth taking a shot on) but can't JP find a contract to take on? Bay? Dunn? Bradley? At this point I hope the Lind comes guns blazing in the spring and puts Johnson on the bench. This shouldn't be that hard for JP to do, turn the surplus of young pitching in to a LF who hits left and has some pop. Heck, even sign Stewart/Nixon/Green to a one year deal... if I have to hear people sing the praises of this "dirt bag" one more time, I'll lose it... he useful of the bench and at the bottom of the line up, but as the starting LF and leadoff hitter? C'mon JP, I'm just not buying what you're selling, get someone with some talent/promise in there... Johnson isn't even cheap anymore, but overpaid. Please JP send Johnson to the NL where he could be a highly useful player... but he's not doing the team any favors by blocking Lind and chewing up AB at the top of the order. Sorry rant over - but Johnson, to me, is the a figurehead of what's been wrong with the team's composition the last few years. Overbay's a similar story, but at least he reminds me of Olerud (my favorite Jay ever) so gets a pass. Sorry, my rant is truly over now.

In my dream of dreams: the Jays deal for Bay and Wilson, taking on salary, allowing the Pirates to say OK while taking a few grade B prospects (Banks?)... problem solved and I get my twenty flex-pack tickets for next year.

On the flip side, the offense ought to rebound to rebound to league average... if the pitching staff is able to step up instead of regress, this could be the season. Other than the lack of a lefty in the starting 5, there's absolutely no reason not to love this pitching staff. So this team will go as far as the pitching can carry it. Pretty trite stuff, but sometimes, the obvious is the right answer.
Chuck - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 04:12 PM EST (#176433) #
Solid offence can take you to the World Series if you have a top three pitching staff - ask the Tigers; they did it with less than average offense.

Not to nit pick, but the Tigers of '06 were 5th in R/G at 5.07, slightly above the league average of 4.97. Their road offense of 5.31 R/G ranked third.
Spifficus - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 04:28 PM EST (#176434) #
I wouldn't worry so much about Lyle - his May (also pre-injury) looks more like the Overbay of old (.274/.342/.538). His aggregate pre-injury line of /.256/.332/.464 is only suffering the effects of being 30 points off his career average. His line drive rates were still good, so as long as the hand is at full strength, he should be his usual self.
Exit - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 07:05 PM EST (#176440) #

There are zero attractive FAs out there.  I would not sign any of them.  I would work on trades, and I'm sure JP is - call him what you want, but he seems to be a busy bee.

Are you kidding me.  He sure didn't look to hard into Cabrera or Estrada.  If the Brewers were willing to take Mota and his baggage for Estrada, I would presume that they would have jumped at the opportunity for one of the many capable Jay relievers.   It was no secret that Estrada was being made available, and its no secret that the Jays are in need of a backup catcher. 

I've been reading many posts of people who are upset with the seemingly status quo .500 Team.  I don't blame them.  I'm one of them.  What is shocking is how many people keep defending this organization.  As a fan of this team I cannot understand how  some people are able to defend the lack of moves the Jays have done this off season.  Look at what the Red Sox and Yankees have done this offseason, regardless of salary,  They are examples of teams that are looking to win. 

There  are many names being tossed around right now, some that are more than " solid" which seems to be our benchmark, and I for one as a fan of this team would like to see JP get involved.

williams_5 - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 07:19 PM EST (#176441) #
Rotowire had this to say about Estrada: "The Mets are the fifth team in seven years for Estrada, who tends to wear out his welcome despite being a good switch-hitting catcher. He openly clashed in the dugout tunnel with Brewers manager Ned Yost during the Mets' visit to Milwaukee in August. And he often bothered pitching coach Mike Maddux with his handling of the pitching staff." He also was brutal at throwing out runners and had an on-base % last year of under .300. All that for $4 million a year? No thanks.
Exit - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 07:30 PM EST (#176442) #

IMO- If Estrada is good enough to be the Mets starting catcher surely he is good enough to be our backup, concidering we don't have one. 

Exit - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 07:38 PM EST (#176443) #
For the record- I'm not a member of the Johnny Estrada fan club, my point was  simply that I am tired of watching other clubs improve while we are not.  We have the resources, we have plenty of trade bait.  Dammit lets make moves. You can complain all you want about the AL East and how we can't compete but that is a load of SHi# .  We are in the AL EAST, so lets make some moves to compete in the devision.
QuasiGuru - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 09:41 PM EST (#176445) #
There is a very good chance Estrada will never play a game for the Mets.  He's up for arbitration and very likely to be non-tendered.
Mylegacy - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 10:12 PM EST (#176446) #

Good Grief Charlie Brown ....

What's with all you guys who think we're not improving! We had 13 surgeries last year! We had MOST of our regular hitters OUT for long periods of time. Even OK health gives us a HUGE improvement. The gems we've uncovered last year in the pitching staff + reasonable health gives us GREAT pitching and VERY GOOD hitting.

We are winners! Learn to live with it!

CaramonLS - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 10:39 PM EST (#176447) #
So then why would the Mets trade Mota (an asset) for him then?  Why not just throw Mota on waivers if you wanted to get rid of him.
John Northey - Friday, November 23 2007 @ 11:21 PM EST (#176448) #
If healthy this is a solid, potentially 90+ win team.  If. 

Season - guys with 140+ games played - guys with 100+ games played
2007 - 4 - 9
2006 - 4 - 9
2005 - 5 - 10
2004 - 2 - 8
2003 - 3 - 10 (2 at 161, Delgado & Wells)
2002 - 4 - 6
2001 - 6 - 7 (Ash's last season)
2000 - 4 - 7
1999 - 4 - 7
1998 - 5 - 10 (plus a 98 gamer - best record since WS)
1997 - 2 - 7
1996 - 3 - 8
1995 - 1 - 8 (5 at 130+) - shows good health isn't everything
1994 - N/A but 6 at 100+ in just 115 games
1993 - 6 - 7 - WS
1992 - 4 - 9 - WS

What does this say?  That most seasons 4 guys are all that will be healthy out of the regulars on the team, with up to 6 if you are lucky.  You can get a guy at each position to play 100+ but that still leaves tons of games to play. 

Backups are vital!!!!!  That cannot be emphasized enough.  Injuries can and will happen.  In 15 years the Jays have failed to have more than 6 positions be true regulars.  We are hoping in 2008 to have Overbay, Hill, Glaus, Wells, Rios, and Thomas play at least 140 games.  The Jays are also hoping for McDonald to be close and Johnson & Stairs too, plus Zaun to be at least in 120 games.  Those are 10 guys who the Jays want to be in a minimum of 100 games each.  Wanting?  No, needing.  Yet in the last 15 years just 3 times have the Jays had 10 guys reach 100 games.  None of those years did they have 6 guys in 140+ games. 

What about pitching?  Starting we need the big 3 to pitch in 30 each, then one of the kids (Marcum) to get 25 I'd think.  Lets do the same exercise
Year - 30+ starts - 20+ starts
2007 - 1 - 5
2006 - 2 - 3
2005 - 2 - 4 plus a 19
2004 - 2 - 4
2003 - 3 - 4
2002 - 1 - 3
2001 - 2 - 3 might explain the issues that year
2000 - 1 - 4
1999 - 3 - 4 plus 2 guys at 18 starts
1998 - 2 - 5
1997 - 3 - 4
1996 - 2 - 4
1995 - 1 - 3
1994 - 0 - 4 (5th at 19 games, 1994 was surprisingly healthy)
1993 - 2 - 5
1992 - 2 - 4

From this I'd say hoping for 2 healthy guys and 4 getting a near full season (2/3rds of one at least) is reasonable.  It does really point out how vital the 6th and 7th guys are though.  Thus the value in holding a Towers who might stink but at least he shouldn't be a Zambrano stink level.

The Jays need more backups who they can count on.  Pitching we should be OK with the 5 20 gamers being back (Halladay/AJ/McGowan/Marcum/Litsch) plus Towers, Chacin, Banks, Purcey, Romero, and anyone they invite to spring training (bound to be a AAAA guy or two who could be a 5.00 ERA starter if needed).  The pen is so deep it is crazy (BJ, Accardo, Janssen, Downs, Frasor, Tallet, Wolfe, League, and whoever loses in the starter role or AAAA guys).

Hitters?  Ugh.  Stats are Avg/OBP/Slg throughout all levels merged together via B-R
CA: Thigpen (268/329/354), Diaz (320/346/413, does not like walking) plus AAAA guys who might be signed
DH/1B: Stairs & Lind would be used first, but no one in the high minors looks ready (Chip Cannon if he gets hot I guess)
2B/3B/SS: Scutaro is the first choice obviously, Olmedo if resigned, Russ Adams, Luna, a few others who couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag
OF: Lind & Stairs again, after that your guess is as good as mine.

No question the Jays need, desperately, for Johnson/Wells/Rios/Overbay/Thomas/Stairs to suffer no more than one injury at a time, maximum 2, or things could get really ugly really fast.  If Glaus goes down or is suspended the Jays are again very, very screwed.  We also must count on McDonald being healthy (scary that he is the best of what we got).

If healthy the Jays can win.  Big time if.  Very, very big time if.  JP's ability to find the best of the best in the minor league free agency group is going to be big this winter.  Josh Phelps would actually be a very good signing if he'd take a AAA contract (Pirates released him).  I'm sure others are out there who could be above replacement level given a shot.  Power hitters are needed as we have lots of no-hit good-field guys.  Lets hope he finds them along with a couple of AAAA starters to keep things safe should 3 injuries hit the starters at once.
Exit - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 07:38 AM EST (#176449) #

We are winners! Learn to live with it!

SO are you saying that what I need to learn is that 3rd place in a devision and never making the playoffs is concidered winning if you are a Jays fan?  Sorry, but I don't agree with you.

FranklyScarlet - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 09:22 AM EST (#176451) #
  Look at what the Red Sox and Yankees have done this offseason, regardless of salary,  They are examples of teams that are looking to win. I've been reading many posts of people who are upset with the seemingly status quo .500 Team.  I don't blame them.  I'm one of them. 

The Red Sox have resigned Schilling, Lowell and they've increased ticket prices.

Chuck - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 09:23 AM EST (#176452) #

So then why would the Mets trade Mota (an asset) for him then?  Why not just throw Mota on waivers if you wanted to get rid of him.

They wanted to unload Mota's salary and found a taker. They didn't care if they got anything back. Trading for Estrada gives them the option of making him their Plan B catcher. Plan A is to find a better catcher before the arb process, in which case they'd just release Estrada. Otherwise, they'll offer him arbitration.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 09:46 AM EST (#176453) #

Omigod, it's November 24 already and the Blue Jays haven't made a move yet!

Seriously, what have the Yankees and Red Sox done to improve so far? Resigning Schilling and Lowell. Resigning Posada and Rivera and Arod. In other words, so far they've been standing pat and not trying to improve themselves.

 

Chuck - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:00 AM EST (#176454) #

The Red Sox have resigned Schilling, Lowell and they've increased ticket prices.

Not sure if you were implying a cause and effect there, but the two are unrelated.

I am not defending Toronto's status quo off-season, but in reality, Boston and New York have been very busy doing no more than retaining their status quo, bringing all their players back: Schilling, Lowell, Wakefield, Posada, Rivera, Abreu, Rodriguez. Key personnel to be sure, but no one new.

At this point, I'd be surprised to see Boston do much more than try to parlay Crisp into some useful pieces. As for New York, there is still lots to be done. As things now stand, 3/5 of their rotation doesn't shave yet, and I'd imagine they'd prefer those three throwing closer to 150 innings than 200. They need some innings for the rotation (obviously Pettitte would be a tremendous fit), some bullpen help and perhaps once and for all finding a real first baseman.

Chuck - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:03 AM EST (#176455) #

I guess I am in agreement with Frank! His post wasn't up yet when I was writing mine. Maybe I shouldn't take so long to press the Submit button.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:32 AM EST (#176456) #

Expectations among the fan base have been raised in the last couple of years and it's understandable to see some frustration boiling over. It beats apathy.

It seems Tejada is available and I'd like to see the Jays try to get him if a deal can be done which makes sense. There's no particular need to have everything done by December 1.

The problem is that the team is in a division with two teams whose payrolls are more than double (Yankees) and close to double (Red Sox) that of the Blue Jays. Nobody can be so brilliant at drafting and player moves that they can consistently stay even under those circumstances. It isn't humanly possible. You can have a run of a few years, but the resource disparity will get you eventually. Plus the Yankees and Red Sox are well run, though certainly not perfect.

I think the franchise is at a key stage right now. They need to show the fans that they are willing to continue to make the necessary resources avavailable to win in order to keep the fans interested. There is more money in general and the Canadian dollar adds a kicker. I suggest people make their feelings known to messrs. Godfrey and Rogers.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:40 AM EST (#176457) #

There was a time, you know, when the Blue Jays had the biggest payroll in baseball. Of course, the raw numbers were much smaller.

I'm not saying match theYankees and pay luxury tax every year. But you have to spend money (wisely) to make money. And this is not a small market.

I honestly don't know how Rogers views the team. Are they looking at it strictly as a hard-nosed business matter or is winning of some value to them in itself.

As a fan, I want to see an owner who wants to win above all else. It's not my money, of course.

FranklyScarlet - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 11:10 AM EST (#176458) #

Not sure if you were implying a cause and effect there, but the two are unrelated.

No, Exit's observation on all that the Red Sox and Yankees have done had me chuckling.
They haven't sold any sod this year, either....



grjas - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 12:16 PM EST (#176460) #
I think the general consensus above is correct: 1. the Jays are a league average team with a chance to sneak into the playoffs if everything goes right (good luck with that); and 2. there are potential millions to spend in the kitty as well as some trade bait.

Which means JP is either daft or speaks dishonestly. Having seen his 2006/7 FA pursuits become highly publicized ... and unsuccessful... I suspect he is working quietly in the background trying to find the right deal which may or may not happen.  While I'm no big JP fan, I doubt he is daft.  On the other hand, we already know about his honesty.

I will watch with interest to see if this year the big deal gets done.



Chuck - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 12:24 PM EST (#176461) #

Expectations among the fan base have been raised in the last couple of years and it's understandable to see some frustration boiling over. It beats apathy.

I think the frustration in these parts isn't due to so much to the lack of Jay action thus far this off-season, but rather due to Ricciardi's stance that there won't be any action forthcoming.

Whether or not Ricciardi, Godfrey and Rogers honestly believe, in their heart of hearts, that a .500-looking team like the Jays can compete for a playoff spot is neither here nor there. Their public message is that they can compete but very few people, save for the odd optimist, are seeing this as little more than a vacuous marketing cry.

The truth is, I'm not sure what Toronto could do to compete with New York and Boston save for digging deeper into their pockets. And now that both these juggernauts are also developing such high caliber talent from within their own systems, the challenge to compete has been rendered even more difficult.

Frankly, I'd like to see the Jays get into the Migel Cabrera sweepstakes, even at the cost of McGowan. I think few people realize just how great an offensive player he is.

CeeBee - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 01:00 PM EST (#176462) #

Whether JP is posturing or not, I'm not sure I'd call him dishonest unless one wants to paint all GM's in all sports with the same brush. In fact most CEO's in the business world probably operate the same way though a lot less publicly unless it's a business that relies on a fan base. Any GM worth having will either say what the fans want to hear or beat around the bush so as to try to minimize a competiors advantage so I really don't care what JP says near so much as I care what he does, and it's way to early in the off season to be jumping off the bridge.

Now if he were to get Tejada, Cabrera, or Chavez in a deal that made sense I'd be all for it but I would be pretty careful giving up too much young talent.... i.e. Snider, Purcey unless it was a young player like Miguel Cabrera coming back and he could be signed to a contract extension.

TimberLee - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 01:38 PM EST (#176463) #

John Northey:    Thanks for putting all the numbers to this. A while ago we had a good study on this site showing how important a sixth and even seventh starting pitcher so often turns out to be, even if such players seldom get any consideration ( from fans, at least) when we are sizing up team situations before a season. Now we see just how seldom the Jays have had full seasons from anywhere near a full team of starting position players. I have said for several seasons now that the Blue Jays outlook can be simply stated - i.e., if everyone stays healthy, they have a good chance of sneaking up on the two perennial powerhouses. But - BUT- as you have just shown us, that hardly ever happens; therefore depth in the high minors is crucial and Toronto doesn't have it. That's why I cheered when they had Cody Haerther, and groaned when he got away again.

             

ayjackson - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 02:18 PM EST (#176464) #

The past to years, Pythagoreas has said we're a "10 game above .500 team:, not a .500 team.  We don't need everything to go right to make the playoffs, but we need more to go right than wrong.  That is, we need to be lucky - or efficient - and outperform our Pythagorean.

To stand pat with regards to Free Agents is a good thing in my opinion because of what's available at what positions and how overpriced it usually is.  I'd bet dimes to doughnuts (donuts, Mick) though, that JP is talking with a lot of teams about trades.  You can't force them though, and I hope he doesn't make a deal for the sake of it.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 04:56 PM EST (#176466) #

I think free agents tended to be overpriced more several years ago. Teams are now making a lot of money, so many recent contracts seem like good value. For example, the Jays were excoriated by many for giving AJ Burnett $55M over five years. Now that contract looks pretty reasonable. Roy Halladay is a bargain.

Of course, the pendulum will swing the other way again when the MLB economy hits a lull.

CaramonLS - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 05:20 PM EST (#176468) #

The past to years, Pythagoreas has said we're a "10 game above .500 team:, not a .500 team.  We don't need everything to go right to make the playoffs, but we need more to go right than wrong.  That is, we need to be lucky - or efficient - and outperform our Pythagorean.

NO NO AND NO.

Want to know why we have such a "pretty" pythag record?  Here it is.

OPS vs. RHP = .715

OPS vs. LHP = .849

Classic stat padding against roughly 25% of the league.  1452 PAs vs. LH, 4457 vs. RH.  Unless the AL decides to start throwing a lot more left handed pitching at us, there is no way you can simply count on our record to improve just like that.  This is an extremely unbalanced and flawed batting order that JP has put together.

tpegs - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 06:07 PM EST (#176469) #
With the Brewers in need of a closer and the at least perceivd notion that accardo is now a full card carrying member, what do you think we could get for them.  I hear they'd trade Capuano, but they'd probably have to sweeten that deal.  any thoughts?
parrot11 - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 06:12 PM EST (#176470) #

I think free agents tended to be overpriced more several years ago. Teams are now making a lot of money, so many recent contracts seem like good value. For example, the Jays were excoriated by many for giving AJ Burnett $55M over five years. Now that contract looks pretty reasonable. Roy Halladay is a bargain.

Of course, the pendulum will swing the other way again when the MLB economy hits a lull.

 

If recent history is any sort of indication that will indeed happen. I remember that the year after Manny, A-rod, and others signed monster contracts, the guys that were elite free agents signed for much less (e.g. Tejada, Vladdy, Pudge, etc). I guess the wise team saves for the rainy day when the average salary of Vladdy and Tejada combined is almost equal to A-rod.

SK in NJ - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 07:15 PM EST (#176471) #
Does anyone know why Ricciardi seems so reluctant to put Adams in an everyday role at 2B? Granted, he's a bust as a 1st round pick, but putting him at 2B and shifting Hill to short would not only solve two very critical issues (a competent SS and another LHB in the lineup), but it would cost about 5 times less than ONE of McDonald or Scutaro!

Adams hit .290/.353/.439 against RHP in AAA and .259/.333/.426 against RHP in the Majors (54 AB) last season. As a rookie in 2005, he hit .269/.329/.398 against RHP. Why not just platoon him with Scutaro or McDonald rather than put an aging/mediocre retread at short for the 7th straight year? It seems like such a waste of an already dwindling asset.

People mention the discrepancy between Boston/New York and Toronto growing now that Boston/New York are developing talent at a better rate, but if Ricciardi isn't even going to try to put his draft picks or inherited young talent in a position to succeed, what's the point? He'd rather have Fasano over Thigpen. He'd rather have McDonald at $2 million over Russ Adams. He'd rather have Matt Stairs and Reed Johnson over Adam Lind. The Red Sox are ready to sell low with guys like Crisp and Lugo to make room for their prospects, while the Jays seem to enjoy getting established below average performance out of no upside veterans. It's very frustrating.

If you're going to go for it, do an all or nothing type off-season. If you're going to call 2008 a wash, try to develop whatever young talent you have. The Jays are doing neither. Funny thing is, the Jays could stick Lind in LF, Adams at 2B, and take a chance with putting a guy like League in the rotation and probably get similar or better results
greenfrog - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 08:03 PM EST (#176472) #
Does anyone know why Ricciardi seems so reluctant to put Adams in an everyday role at 2B?

I think the main reasons are that (1) Adams has repeatedly shown a lack of defensive confidence (he had to be pulled from a game in September because of inexplicably wild throws from 3B); (2) he doesn't do any one thing (hit, hit with power, run, get on base, play defense) particularly well; (3) Hill has settled in as a first-rate defensive second-baseman, whereas Hill's play as a SS wasn't all that great; (4) Adams is around 27 and has yet to blossom;  (5) a combination of Hill-McDonald (with Scutaro getting significant time as a sub) gives the team more versatility, defense and experience. The DP combo of J-Mac/Hill was outstanding last year.

I think the team views Adams as a potential utility player if he can overcome his Chuck Knoblauch/Steve Blass tendencies. Some NL team might want to take a flyer on him as part of a trade (Adams wouldn't command much in return).


greenfrog - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 08:08 PM EST (#176473) #
the Jays could stick Lind in LF

Last year, Stairs showed that he was better than Lind--for the time being. Lind obviously has great potential (and a sweet swing), but IMO he needs to get stronger and gain more control over the strike zone (he especially needs to learn to lay off the high fastball). I think Lind will come on strong in 2008 and 2009.


TimberLee - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 09:06 PM EST (#176474) #
SK:      Whether Adams ever proves to be worthy of a regular MLB job or not, I agree that the Jays should hold on to him for now and have him available. As you point out, he has shown that he has something to contribute - namely, he can hit RHP well enough to fill in in the middle infield, and he has shown enough, and is young enough, that the team could yet make good use of his talents.
brent - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 09:17 PM EST (#176475) #

SK in NJ, I definitely have similar feelings about some of what you said. I have felt very frustrated over JP's term of his handling of prospects. He seems to not let some players get a shot at playing. You do not know what you have until you give them a significant chance to prove what they can do. It is not always certain how a particular player will translate from the minors to the majors. However, other players are given almost unlimited opportunities. Others have commented on this from time to time. Although many people have already written JP off, I still support him to see what he can do with a healthy team this year. If the team fails to perform (relatively to the situation), then it is time to try to find a top GM. I do not agree with making a change to just make a change- upgrade or he stays where he is. I nominate someone from Battersbox to be GM and let the collective vote on most decisions (hasn't the total group here been fairly accurate overall?).

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:08 PM EST (#176476) #
If Adams were to play second on the major league team and Hill short, there would be two guys playing key positions poorly. Hill didn't move to short to make room for John McDonald - he moved there because he doesn't play a major league short. Anyone who saw Adams often enough at second last year would say the same thing about him there.

Adams was a terrible pick, no question about that (an interesting contrast to Gord Ash's first pick), but eventually you have to cut your losses and move on. If Adams is going to play anywhere on this team, it's either at third or in left, and he doesn't hit well enough to justify either. Admit your mistake and release him, or else have him back up third this year. But don't ruin the middle infield just to import Russ Adams' mediocre bat.
ANationalAcrobat - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:22 PM EST (#176477) #
Well put, Greenfrog. As much as I enjoyed Adams' heroics against Jonathan Papelbon late in '07, he realistically does not have a role on a major league club. I think he has the tools to be a solid citizen in the major leagues, but he has not put it together, and at his age it is highly unlikely that he ever will.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:56 PM EST (#176478) #
I agree that Adams was an awful pick. There's nothing that can be done to change that. However, that doesn't mean he can't help the team. Assuming the best Adams can produce over a full season is his rookie year performance, that means the Jays would be getting an 87 OPS+, .325 OBP, and questionable defense at 2B. Not ideal in any sense of the word. However, if the only alternative to that is John McDonald, who in his BEST reasonably full season put up a 61 OPS+ and .279 OBP with great defense, how is playing Adams not considered a massive upgrade? The difference between Adams and McDonald might as well be the difference between Alex Rios and Reed Johnson over a full season. That says more about how poor McDonald is than anything positive about Adams. Moving Hill is a risk, but if JP is going to sit on his hands this winter, why not go for the best in-house alternative?

In a perfect world, JP finds a real SS and keeps Hill at 2B. In reality, John McDonald at short full-time is already conceding the season when up against the likes of Boston and New York. The latter two teams have enough to off-set a bad offensive position. The Jays have enough warts with their "star" hitters; playing a sub-.600 OPS short-stop full-time isn't going to help matters.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 24 2007 @ 10:57 PM EST (#176479) #
On a different note, is there some reason Joe Inglett (who is 29) was kept on the 40-man roster and Haerther DFA'd, which allowed the Cardinals to reclaim him? Haerther is 24 and seems to have a lot more potential than Inglett (maybe more than Taubenheim or Olmedo as well).
timpinder - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 12:09 AM EST (#176480) #

greenfrog,

my best guess is that J.P. saw Haerther as redundant since the Jays already have two very good left-handed hitting outfielders on the way (Lind in 2008 or 2009 and Snider in 2009 or 2010).  On the other hand, the infield situation looks quite scary, not including Hill.  Glaus could very well opt out after this year if he isn't extended, and all of the Jays' top 2B, SS and 3B prospects are 17 or 18 years old.  I think that's the reason why J.P. is hoarding infielders and chose to keep Inglett over Haerther. 

 

Lefty - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 03:32 AM EST (#176481) #
Picking up Haerther and losing him the next week smacks me as directionless.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 09:33 AM EST (#176483) #
I guess my take is that if we're relying on guys like Inglett to back up Glaus, we're already in deep trouble. I would rather have a deep pool of talent in the minors than an accumulation of guys like Luna and Inglett.

Either way, I think we're at risk of an offensive breakdown in 2008. If Glaus goes down, the bottom of our lineup is going to go something like Zaun/Hill/Scutaro/McDonald. That's not going to get you into the playoffs.
CeeBee - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 09:37 AM EST (#176485) #
Or making a deal to hold him for a week. Otherwise it hardly makes sense unless something else is in the works.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 09:38 AM EST (#176486) #
I guess my take is that if we're relying on guys like Inglett to back up Glaus, we're already in deep trouble. I would rather have a deep pool of talent in the minors than an accumulation of guys like Luna and Inglett.

Either way, I think we're at risk of an offensive breakdown in 2008. If Glaus goes down, the bottom of our lineup is going to go something like:

Zaun (or someone like Fasano)
Hill
Scutaro
McDonald

That's 2007 all over again. Scutaro/McDonald is marginally better than Clayton/McDonald (hard to believe the Jays were running that lineup out there last year). But it isn't going to get the Jays into the playoffs.
timpinder - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 12:01 PM EST (#176489) #

greenfrog,

I agree with you.  The lineup must stay healthy if the Jays are going to contend.  There just isn't anybody who can step in right now if Glaus or Hill go down.  Lind could fill in at 1B, DH or the OF, Thigpen and Diaz are there for C, there's a lot of pitching depth, but 2B, SS and 3B are very vulnerable indeed.  It might be a good idea for J.P. to turn some of his pitching prospects such as Purcey, Romero, or Litsch, into a SS or 3B.  I like the idea of having Burnett in 2008, but if he could bring in a SS or 3B I'd be happy with that too.

westcoast dude - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 12:05 PM EST (#176490) #
Joe Inglett had a 1.6 OPS last season, admittedly a small sample size, but give the man a break. He got his chance, he came through. Put him out there and see if he can do it again. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Pistol - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 12:14 PM EST (#176491) #
admittedly a small sample size

Small might be an overstatement.  It was *5* ABs.

I would think a .694 OPS in AAA in 392 ABs might give us a little more information.
TimberLee - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 03:25 PM EST (#176495) #
However, 2007 was the first year that Inglett didn't hit for a good average, with a good OBP. He appears to be one of those guys who doesn't have enough power to play 3B, or enough glove to play 2B. But he sure looks like Toronto's best bet to step in for Glaus if needed.
dalimon5 - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 03:41 PM EST (#176496) #
This team needs 1) Pedro Feliz or Mike Lamb to sub in for Overbay and Glaus, 2) a bullpen type like David Riske (so that we can parlay our bullpen arms into an offer for a shortstop such as Tejada) and a Chris Benson or Jason Jennings type 5th starter to take on Litsch.

On another note, one thing I see nobody mentioning is this team's ability to handle the Red Sox and Yankees quite capably. The shocking part of this team is how good the bullpen is against everyone except the Devil Rays and other lowly teams. I am not referring strictly to last year's meltdowns. The Jays bullpen just always seems to cough it up against lowly teams. I still have nightmares of David Hollins taking Frasor deep on multiple days to steal a win away from our Jays.

Not only does our team need to be reasonably healthy, but our manager needs to cut the losses. By this I mean not sending out a rookie pitcher in the late innings of a game against Ramirez on back to back nights to kill a modest winning streak.
grjas - Sunday, November 25 2007 @ 04:20 PM EST (#176499) #
Whether JP is posturing or not, I'm not sure I'd call him dishonest .... Any GM worth having will either say what the fans want to hear

Hmm.. sounds like JP's comment “They're not lies if we know the truth.”  Anyway my point was not focused on his morality, but to highlight we should not believe what he states- he is very likely running the phones as we speak.

I hope.
Rich - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 12:50 PM EST (#176518) #
SK, you make an interesting point.  If you're going to draft Lind and Thigpen and as John Northey rightly pointed out, you're going to need help from your bench to contend, why is JP wasting time with the Sal Fasano's of the world?  If JP had drafted as skillfully as Epstein had perhaps it would be easier for the him to find roster spots for his young players.  I think Adams is a lost cause, but not finding ways for Lind and Thigpen to contribute simply compounds the problem of Ricciardi's poor draft record.  The club should be trying everything they can to make use of the (somewhat questionable) talents of these 2 players.
John Northey - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 01:17 PM EST (#176519) #
Sal Fasano is OK as a AAA backup who might get 50 AB's in a worst case situation and should be no more than a trainer for our top catching prospect at AAA at best (with maybe a September call-up as a reward, used as defensive replacement late in games). If he is going to be our top backup behind Zaun then we have another issue.

I wonder at this point if JP is trying to push Barrett to take a lower offer (once arbitration has passed) by saying stuff like Fasano being the backup.

Lind right now should be the top call-up if any of Stairs/Johnson/Wells/Rios/Overbay/Thomas gets hurt (seems a reasonable assumption that one will be hurt this season) but after his horrid season last year he has to re-prove himself imo.

Thigpen is my current #1 choice as backup catcher, but signing Barrett (without losing a draft pick) would be fine as well given his track record (121 OPS in '06, 110 in '05 and 108 in '04). Plus you always have injuries behind the plate. If JP did as good a job drafting as we hoped he would then we'd have that cheap backup that Thigpen should be but such is life.

Before tearing JP on drafting though, he has done a solid job in drafting pitchers. Janssen, Marcum, Mastney (relief for Cleveland, traded for McDonald), Bush (now in Milwaukee), and Litsch have all done well in the majors and JP has just 3 drafts that (reasonably) should've produced ML'ers by now (05/06/07 should be no more than Sept callups unless were top 5-10 picks, and even then should be just reaching in '08). His depth for hitters has been weak but I do have faith in his draft teams ability to find pitching. Maybe not Halladay level pitching but there are rarely more than 20-30 of those in the majors at any one time anyways.
Rich - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 01:44 PM EST (#176520) #
His depth for hitters has been weak but I do have faith in his draft teams ability to find pitching.

When you are competing against the Yanks and Red Sox you have to draft well in both areas to have a chance, and this is the focus of my complaint.  The offence is old and brittle and the minor league system lacks both the depth and talent to offer much support.  Your own charts (thanks for those, by the way) illustrate the folly of standing pat and hoping for the best of health from everyone.  It's not planning - it's wish-casting.

Secondary to my argument about JP's poor drafting is the lack of high-ceiling talent in the system.  Many of the pitchers you named should have solid careers, in addition to Aaron Hill and maybe Lind, but in 7 years Ricciardi has drafted exactly 1 player who looks like a can't-miss star talent - Travis Snyder.  Epstein has drafted guys like Lester, Papelbon, and Buchholz, while the Yankees have Chamberlain and Hughes.  Although money is a factor, look at the top talent that JP's predecessor was able to draft - Halladay, Wells, Hudson, Rios, Koch, and Young.  The current system has nowhere close to this level of talent, and it can't sustain a title challenge if anything goes wrong at the big league level.
Marc Hulet - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 05:11 PM EST (#176522) #
Except the scouting directors make the picks based on suggestions by the scouts, not the general managers. The GMs, yes, have some say in the first round picks, but later round finds like Lind, Papelbon, etc. go 100 percent to the scouting director and the scouts.
Pistol - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 05:27 PM EST (#176523) #
If JP did as good a job drafting as we hoped he would then we'd have that cheap backup that Thigpen should be but such is life.

Thigpen is the cheap backup the Jays should have.  Why they don't want to use him for 60 games next season is beyond me.  There's no reason to not expect him to put up at least a .280/.330/.370 line which is a lot better than the other free agent options.
John Northey - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 05:32 PM EST (#176524) #
Rich, good point about the 'star level' but remember, JP was first going for bulk not top notch quality.

Ash was like the slugger who swings for the fences every time up. Lets look at how he did - unlike JP we can easily tell if an Ash pick will be anything special as they've all been around for at least 7 years.

2001...
Gabe Gross - backup outfielder
Brandon League - has yet to become more than a Sept callup

2000...
McGowan - could be star starter at long last
Vinnie Chulk - decent middle man

1999...
Rios - two time All-Star
Brandon Lyon - see Chulk
Reed Johnson - solid starter/platoon guy

1998...
Felipe Lopez - All-Star once, solid starter
Jay Gibbons - Solid OF, about the level of Johnson imo
Bob File - was decent in middle relief but just 111 IP

1997... His best draft, probably the best Jay draft ever
Vernon Wells - We all know him
Michael Young - Would look darn good at SS here
Mark Hendrickson - A taller Towers
Orlando Hudson - Another all-star

1996...
Billy Koch - darn good closer for awhile
Brent Abernathy - hit like McDonald
Casey Blake - lost via waivers
Josh Phelps - Solid bat vs LHP

1995...
Halladay - Nuff said
Craig Wilson - Was darn good for awhile before crashing last year
Ryan Freel - solid utility guy, briefly a starter

Lots of All-Stars, a few subs but of note is how after the big 3 drafts to start he never again had more than 3 who were more than Sept callup level.

All-Star Level: Halladay, Wells, Young, Hudson, Lopez, Rios, Lopez

Starters: Freel, Wilson, Blake, Phelps, Hendrickson, Gibbons, Johnson, McGowan, Koch

Spare parts: Abernathy, File, Lyon, Chulk, Gross, League

So over 7 years he drafted 7 All-Stars, 9 regulars, and 6 spare parts. One per area per year, pretty good. Sadly he also traded/released many of them :P

JP's first 3 seasons he has taken...
All-Stars: None yet (Hill maybe)
Regulars: Bush, Hill, Janssen, Marcum
Spare Parts: Russ Adams, Mastney, Lind, Thigpen, Litsch

So about 1 regular and 2 spare parts per year with Litsch and Lind possibly moving to the regulars area and Hill the only one likely to be an All-Star someday (Marcum, Litsch, and Lind could have a career year and make it ala Lopez).

Not as strong as Ash, but also not as pathetic as it seems at times vs Ash. Like JP said, he chased spare parts and regulars not potential stars. Ash's last two years he flopped (McGowan being the only likely starter quality there unless League really turns it around) so I guess this is the way it goes. Swing for the fences and risk a K or cut down your swing and go for a few singles.

I'm glad JP is going for the fences more now (Snider) as stars are harder to aquire than regulars once the draft is done. JP's first draft was pretty much a dud (Bush only real starter, just over Towers level, while Adams had a season and that was it) but since then he's been fine even if he missed some stars out there.
John Northey - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 05:36 PM EST (#176525) #
But, Kevin Cash is available!!! How can you get better than that? :)

Seems most ML teams noticed how revenue was way up and locked up anyone decent pre-free agency with a couple of notable exceptions like Hunter and A-Rod.

Now, more than ever, it is vital to have strong scouting (stats and traditional style).
ayjackson - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 05:37 PM EST (#176526) #

Thigpen is the cheap backup the Jays should have.  Why they don't want to use him for 60 games next season is beyond me.  There's no reason to not expect him to put up at least a .280/.330/.370 line

That's because people believe his .238/.294/.287 line from his 101 MLB ABs last year are more indicative of his prospective ability than his career .279/.370/.426 minor league line through his age 24 season. 

SK in NJ - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 08:24 PM EST (#176536) #
The problem I have with Ricciardi's drafting is that his picks have a lot more value to the Jays than they do to anyone else, and that's a recipe for disaster if those players don't pan out or aren't utilized properly. Players like Hill, Adams, etc, are not going to come with the asset value of players like Maybin (for example). Maybin can flop for 5 years and still have more trade value than Hill and Adams ever did. So for JP to draft these low-upside players and then not even use them properly is just compounding the issue. If you can't trade Adams, use him. Marcum and Janssen provided more value to the team in '07 than they ever will in a trade. Do more of that, and the team is better off, even if those players won't be anything better than average or slightly better than.

As for JP vs. Ash, Halladay alone is worth more than Hill, Lind, Purcey, Adams, Romero, Bush, Thigpen, Marcum, Janssen, and Thigpen combined. Rios alone is worth more than them. Wells, when he's on, is worth more. McGowan looks like he's heading down that path as well. A star is worth A LOT more than even half a dozen regulars. The fact that Ash was able to average more than one star per year during his tenure is amazing, and a real testament to his (and his staff's) scouting ability. Ricciardi will never come close to that.
Rich - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 08:25 PM EST (#176537) #
John, that's a great analysis (again) - thanks for doing that.  I think it proves my point  - JP just hasn't drafted well enough to make this team a real contender in the AL East.  Hell, Ash drafted 7 all-stars and a bunch of other regulars in a similar span and he still couldn't catch Boston and New York.  JP has done a nice job acquiring top-level talent at the big league level - Glaus, Thomas, Ryan, possibly Burnett, but he's just not pumping the kind of cheap young talent into the team the way his bigger-budget competitors are.  The team's weaknesses are glaringly obvious, but the farm system just isn't good or plentiful enough to pick up the slack.
timpinder - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 10:53 PM EST (#176546) #

The constant knocks against J.P. for his drafting are growing tiresome.  It was clear that for the first few years he would draft lower ceiling college guys that could contribute soon.  In fact, I think J.P. stated that publicly.  The strategy of getting players that could get to the majors quickly has worked since Hill, Janssen, Marcum, Litsch, Thigpen and Lind are either here or knocking on the door, and others were turned into players like Overbay.  It wasn't until Purcey that J.P. switched gears and went for a high risk and high reward player with his first pick (even if he wasn't a high school pitcher).  Then people started slamming J.P. because Purcey didn't work out right away!  (Though he looked like a future ace in the AFL this year)

Now J.P. has switched gears somewhat, as he suggested he would years ago, and has drafted some high school players with higher ceilings.  You can't say that the Ash drafts were better because they produced Wells and Halladay until you've seen how the likes of Ahrens, Jackson, Snider, Tolisano and the rest, turn out.  Ahrens could be Chipper Jones, Tolisano could be Chase Utley, and Snider could end up breaking all of Delgado's Jays' batting records.  Not to mention the international scouting and the signing of guys like Fuenmayor and Chavez, who are 18 years old too.

It's ridiculous to suggest that Ash had more successful drafts because he's produced more all-stars than J.P., when all of Ricciardi's young 'high ceiling' picks are still getting an allowance from mom and dad.  We should have this debate in a decade.  Right now, it's too soon to tell.

John Northey - Monday, November 26 2007 @ 11:08 PM EST (#176548) #
I think the big thing that killed the Jays in the Ash era were two fold.
1) Ash kept trading (Young) or keeping in the minors (Wells) guys who could've helped the team win
2) Never picking the right guys to keep in the lineup

The two are related.  They say the biggest thing a manager can do is choose who plays.

In 2001 we had Escobar bouncing between starting and relieving while Loaiza, Hamilton, Parris, Michalak, and Lyon started. 
We had Fletcher (63 OPS+) catch while Phelps (who was still a catcher) stay in AAA.
An infield of Homer Bush/Tony Batista/Alex Gonzalez (no OPS+ above 90) starting while Felipe Lopez and Cesar Izturis were getting bits of playing time after Batista was finally tossed mid-season.

In 2000 Homer Bush played in 76 games despite a 33(!) OPS+
Cruz Jr didn't miss a game (95 OPS+) while Vernon Wells got to sit around in his second September call up (3 games, 2 AB's)

I remember going nuts over some of these decisions at the time and wondering why the Jays kept doing these things.  You can draft guys like Wells and Rios all you want, but if you keep playing guys like Cruz Jr, Mondesi and Homer Bush you'll never get anywhere.

JP has done a better job of picking who to play and who to keep than Ash did (yes, he should've kept Lopez but he sure wouldn't be a lot of help today) while being weaker in the draft department so far.  That is why I'm very happy that he has started the 'swing for the fences' approach on draft day.  The key is to mix the Ash draft day performance with the JP ability to know who to keep and who to dump and mix in some of Gillick's talent to find hidden gems in the minors (McGriff, Bell, etc.) and you'd have a great GM.  JP is showing promise on getting Ash's skills these last couple of drafts so lets hope he can find Gillick's magic soon as well.
Rich - Tuesday, November 27 2007 @ 04:54 PM EST (#176561) #
It's ridiculous to suggest that Ash had more successful drafts because he's produced more all-stars than J.P., when all of Ricciardi's young 'high ceiling' picks are still getting an allowance from mom and dad.

Debateable, but I can see your line of thought.  This is not really my main argument and I'm sorry for getting off topic.  The comparison to Ash was simply made to illustrate a point - that after 7 years JP hasn't built a strong enough system where he has a lot of ready-to-play talent at the upper levels.  Unless you are a big budget club, this type of talent is crucial when injuries hit, players underachieve, or help is available at the deadline for some decent prospects.  The A's under Beane and JP did this brilliantly and when he was hired it was my sincere belief that certainly by the winter of 2007 (if not sooner) the Toronto AA and AAA clubs would have more than just the odd player who could step up to the big club and contribute.  If you think I'm underestimating the talent at these levels feel free to explain why because I don't see it.  Are you honestly happy with the state of the farm system?

Also, the argument that JP went for lower-ceiling, quicker-ready talent and therefore couldn't have gotten higher upside players at the same time is bogus.  He could have tried to do both by grabbing a great talent where he could and sticking with mostly low-risk picks the rest of the way, but he didn't - Adams ahead of Kazmir, Romero instead of Tulowitzki or Maybin, for example.  Even though Beane got criticized for his draft approach, he still selected Giambi, Chavez, and Mulder who were all seen as high-upside players.
Pistol - Tuesday, November 27 2007 @ 05:40 PM EST (#176565) #
Beane didn't start as the A's GM until 1997.  Giambi was drafted in 1992 and Chavez in 1996 (and I'm skeptical whether Giambi was seen as a high upside player).  And Mulder was the 2nd pick of the draft.

The only picks that really overachieved for the A's were Tim Hudson in 1997 (round 6) and Harden in 2000 (17).

TamRa - Tuesday, November 27 2007 @ 07:46 PM EST (#176574) #
The overlooked thing about this comparison between Gord's draftees and JP's is that the book is closed on Gord's contributions and it is not on JP's.

A more accurate comparison wold be to look at what we knew of Gord's work at a similar point in his tenure. When you do that, you find:
Halladay was a guy that a LOT of Jays fan's were whispering (not to softly) "bust" about because oh his train wreck of a 2000 season - Compare to Marcum's relative success;
Rios was a guy who was considered a budget choice and wasn't changing any minds in his first year in the minors - compare to Snider's taking the minors by storm;
Wells was still over a year away from his full time role - compare to Lind;
Young was still a year away from a major league career that would not be impressive  until 2003  - compare to Romero, maybe, or Purcey;
 McGowan was just drafted - compare to Ceicl, or Ahens or whomever you like from the last draft;
Hudson was still a relatively unheralded minor league infielder - might compare him to a guy like Patterson;
Billy Koch was in his second season in the majors and looking like the real deal - compare to Casey Janssen;
Felipe Lopez was still FIVE years away from anyone saying he was putting up impressive work in the majors...again, Romero for instance;

Johnson, Blake, Gibbons, Freel, League, all 2,3, or more years away from being event important role-players in the majors.

Does this mean that I think Marcum is Doc? Heck no Few GMs ever get so lucky as to stumble onto a Roy Halladay
The point is not whether or not Snider will be better than Rios (could be) or Lind will be better than Wells (unlikely)....the point is WE DON'T KNOW YET.

The whole story on Gord's drafting ability was not written until at least 3 or 4 years after his last draft. If we are to compare, let's compare fairly.





TamRa - Tuesday, November 27 2007 @ 09:31 PM EST (#176578) #
Quote:

All-Star Level: Halladay, Wells, Young, Hudson, Lopez, Rios, Lopez

Starters: Freel, Wilson, Blake, Phelps, Hendrickson, Gibbons, Johnson, McGowan, Koch

Spare parts: Abernathy, File, Lyon, Chulk, Gross, League

So over 7 years he drafted 7 All-Stars, 9 regulars, and 6 spare parts. One per area per year, pretty good. Sadly he also traded/released many of them :P

JP's first 3 seasons he has taken...
All-Stars: None yet (Hill maybe)
Regulars: Bush, Hill, Janssen, Marcum
Spare Parts: Russ Adams, Mastney, Lind, Thigpen, Litsch
````Unquote

I take issue with a lot of this too. One flukey All Star game does not make you an All Star level player for your career. It pains me to say it because I had a lot of hopes for the guy but it's insane to call Lopez an All Star level player....right now he's barely a starter. Oh, and you only get to count him once.

Likewise, Freel, Wilson, and Phelps have never been full time starters and it's a stretch to apply that label to Hendrickson (a sixth starter at best). Neither Gibbons or Johnson have been secure in a full time role in there career either, with the exception of once.
A fairer assesment is that Ash produced six excellent players (replace Lopez with McGowan), six  useful players (Lopez, Gibbons, Johnson, Koch and - benifit of the doubt - League) and a bunch of marginal talent that any GM can find.



John Northey - Tuesday, November 27 2007 @ 11:42 PM EST (#176586) #
Oops, didn't notice I listed Lopez twice.  I debated putting him in the starter or AS level, but given he did make a team I figured I'd leave him there.

Freel qualified for the batting title twice, over 400 PA's once, over 300 one more time.  That is a no doubt starter for 2, maybe 3 seasons.  Especially given his 400 PA season was between the two regular seasons (injured I suspect).  He is much like Tony Phillips was a decade ago, a super sub who is in the lineup most of the time and plays all over the place (all 3 outfield positions plus 2B and 3B).

Wilson I was surprised to see had just one season with over 500 PA's ('04 with over 600).  4 seasons with 200+ PA's and 100+ OPS+, a 146 OPS+ as a rookie over 183 PA's, 395 PA's with a 94, then last season's disaster.  He was at minimum a strong platoon guy, but from what I understand he was at least in part an injured regular who many teams wanted a couple of seasons ago.

Phelps only cracked 400 PA's twice with 3 other seasons between 177 and 287 PA's.  112 lifetime OPS+ surprisingly enough.  I'd put him in the same category as Fielder pre-Japan was - platoon guy who isn't a regular but could be (although could be's don't count here).  Him I'll give on.

Hendrickson has started 30+ games 3 times and 25 one more time, with 122 IP last season (just 15 starts).  He may just have a 91 ERA+ lifetime but that is a guy who made it as a starter like it or not.  Plus he is still active and likely to get a lot more chances at increasing those totals.

To me a guy was a starter if he was playing regularly (400+ PA's or 25+ starts) for 3 seasons or more.  There just aren't that many guys who do that.

Now, to be fair, Ash was a failure after 2001 based on his draft/trade/signing free agent record to date.  A lot of these guys didn't get a chance until JP gave it to them (Wells, Hudson, Rios, Johnson, McGowan, Hendrickson, Phelps, League) while others bloomed elsewhere (Young, Lopez, Freel, Wilson, Blake, Gibbons).  Ash was terrible for wanting veterans over kids and I think it is safe to say that cost him his job in the end.  Where does JP rank?  We won't really know for another 5 years at least.  But it is fun to try to look and see before then.  Getting an everyday player and 2 starters plus a solid reliever and maybe another starting pitcher and 2 more everyday guys and a reliever and backup player is nothing to sneeze at from 3 drafts. 

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