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It's been a relatively quiet few days, at least in terms of signings and trades.

The 2008 schedule is out.  The Jays open up in NY and then have their home opener on Friday against the Red Sox.  The rest of the month gets easier after that!




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rpriske - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 08:43 AM EST (#178087) #

Canada on the road again?

What the heck?!?!

perlhack - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 10:20 AM EST (#178088) #
The Jays should try to accumulate wins by mid-August. Starting August 15, they have 12 games against Boston (6 home, 6 road) and 9 versus the Yankees (6 home, 3 road) to finish the season.
Geoff - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 10:20 AM EST (#178089) #
I presume you mean that on Canada Day, the Jays are scheduled to play in Seattle, as they did this year.

Won't bother me so long as the Jays aren't swept in Seattle again on the Canada Day series. Some will also recall the Jays dropping 2 of 3 from July 2-4,2004 in San Juan.

I'm curious: do the Mariners have some promotion to attract Canadian baseball fans out west to party their holiday in Seattle?



Nigel - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 11:36 AM EST (#178092) #
The Mariners do a great job of marketing to Vancouver's Blue Jay fans (not just for the Canada Day weekend).  It's not quite like the early to mid nineties where maybe a third of the crowd came down to see Seattle/Toronto games but there is still a large Jay fanbase at Seattle games.  Safeco is one of the nicer parks (on the inside) to watch a game in and with a retractable roof you can book your tickets and hotel in advance and know you'll get your games.
Sister - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 11:45 AM EST (#178093) #
If I remember correctly, at one point the Seattle Mariners used to honor Canadian currency on par for ticket purchases and concessions.

Safeco is quite a nice ballpark with great upper deck site lines. I caught a game in late August against the Angels during the playoff race (the Mariners got creamed in that game).

Touring other ballparks and areanas makes me realize how terrible the concessions are in Toronto (Rogers Centre and ACC). At Safeco fans were allowed to bring food into the game (people were brining in whole pizza's they'd just purchased across the street).

Paul D - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 11:55 AM EST (#178094) #
I'm pretty sure you're allowed to bring food into the Rogers Centre.  The only thing you can't bring is drinks in glass containters.
timpinder - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 11:58 AM EST (#178095) #

Once again the Jays' games against the Yankees and Red Sox are back-loaded.  Over 55% of their games against Boston and New York are confined to just the last 25% of the season.  If they're in a race it will certainly make for interesting baseball, but it will be tough.  The Jays will definitely want to gather up the wins before the last two months.  And that stretch from August 8th - August 25th is simply deadly.  It could define their season, as they battle the Indians, Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees exclusively over that period.  Those are the teams they'll be fighting with for the wild card, or maybe, just maybe, the division.

I've spent my free time the last two days watching the highlights from 2007 at Bluejays.com.  Is it March yet?

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:10 PM EST (#178096) #
I'm pretty sure you're allowed to bring food into the Rogers Centre. The only thing you can't bring is drinks in glass containters.

This is true.

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:15 PM EST (#178097) #
I've spent my free time the last two days watching the highlights from 2007 at Bluejays.com. Is it March yet?

You may want to look into MLB.com's offseason package, Timpinder. They offer all of the season's games from every team plus the postseason for $15. I bought it last year to watch a couple of games and I was very satisfied with the product.

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:23 PM EST (#178099) #
There's a good article over at Lookout Landing discussing the 4/44 deal Silva has been offered. Josh Towers is involved...
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:27 PM EST (#178100) #
Over the past three seasons, the Jays are 55-54 versus the Red Sox and Yankees.
lexomatic - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:34 PM EST (#178101) #
I'm pretty sure you're allowed to bring food into the Rogers Centre. The only thing you can't bring is drinks in glass containters.

This is true.

The last time i went after work witha plastic water bottle I was asked to dump that. previous times i was not allowed to bring food in. I'm willing to admit that the policy may have changed but I would not expect that to be the case. I mean isn't that how movie theatres make money.. through concessions? I'm pretty sure they have the right to restrict peopel from bringing in food, even if it's not always exercised.

John Northey - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 12:49 PM EST (#178102) #
My brother-in-law runs a couple of theaters in the GTA and tells me how without the concession revenue there pretty much is no revenue. The movie companies suck up nearly every cent for new movies and anything over 4 weeks old tends to draw flies. So think of the $10 popcorn as your way of making sure the local theater stays there.

As to the Jays, well, they do give up 40% (iirc) of local ticket sales to the visiting team. Don't know how concessions work for league sharing.
bryanttelfer - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 01:00 PM EST (#178103) #
The Mariners are essentially Vancouver's team, kind of like Windsor and the Tigers. As recently as 2001, close to 20% of their season ticket holders shipped to Canadian addresses. They've done very well marketing over the border, and I'd expect the numbers to increase with the stronger Canadian dollar and the continued influx of Pacific Rim immigrants.
bryanttelfer - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 01:00 PM EST (#178104) #
The Mariners are essentially Vancouver's team, kind of like Windsor and the Tigers. As recently as 2001, close to 20% of their season ticket holders shipped to Canadian addresses. They've done very well marketing over the border, and I'd expect the numbers to increase with the stronger Canadian dollar and the continued influx of Pacific Rim immigrants.
natan79 - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 01:38 PM EST (#178105) #

I'm pretty sure you're allowed to bring food into the Rogers Centre. The only thing you can't bring is drinks in glass containters.

Plastic bottles over 500mL are not allowed either.  500 mL or less is fine unless it's booze.  I sneak in food all the time and have not had any issues with that in over 2 years.

Sister - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 02:12 PM EST (#178106) #
Regarding food: While I do not know the official Rogers Centre policy, I am aware that you can sneak in small snacks and the like in your pocket. That's not the issue I was speaking to. At Safeco, people were bringing party-size deluxe pizzas that required two hands to carry into the ball park - no questions asked. I don't think you can do that at the RC.





natan79 - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 02:51 PM EST (#178107) #
I routinely bring in sandwiches and sometimes even a footlong sub purchased outside and they haven't said anything about it the past couple years...it's just too expensive to buy food at the RC every time, especially when you go to 30 games a year
Geoff - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 03:03 PM EST (#178108) #
I wouldn't agree that Silva is on par with Towers. Silva had a very poor year overall in 2006, and all the comparisons are for stats from 2005-2007.

I'm curious how these numbers for HR allowed were calculated:

HR%

Silva: 3.5%
Towers: 3.6%


Because I see that Josh allowed 59 homeruns in 377.7 innings while Carlos allowed 83 in 570.7 innings.

Anyhow, Silva's performance has been quite good and consistent outside of a couple months, April and August of 2006, where he just didn't have it and was really susceptible to serving gopher balls. Outside of that, he's been a very valuable #3 starter for the Twins the last 4 years and does well to keep the ball in the ballpark.

Josh Towers? In 219 fewer career innings, he's allowed 5 more home runs than Silva. And outside of his one good year in 2005, hasn't shown that he can be relied upon to take the ball every fifth day as part of a major league rotation.

As to why Silva is garnering A.J. Burnett-type dough? I've no idea, the market is out of control. But Carlos Silva != Josh Towers. Silva commands plenty more respect than Josh.
Sister - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 03:29 PM EST (#178109) #
I know that the market is what it is, but I think for me, and perhaps many others, it is just hard to fathom someone with career numbers like Silva making $11m per year.

My sense of *good* value is being completely skewed. I also know that when you dig deeper its likely that this is *fair* value for his services -- it just doesn't feel right to me, that's all.





Pistol - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 03:40 PM EST (#178110) #
Rising salaries are just something you need to adjust for.  If players aren't getting it it's going to the owners.  The only issue is if players are overpaid and it prevents a team from doing something else.

I'd like to see the 0-2 year players get a boost in the minimum salary.  Not that $300k isn't a lot, but they're performing at levels much greater than that, and in some cases are wasting their best years making little money.
timpinder - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 04:02 PM EST (#178111) #

If Silva does in fact sign for $11 million per year, I think it's safe to say Burnett is a gonner next year.  Even if he only throws 135 - 165 innings again, there's still going to be a team out there that will top the $12 million per year he scheduled to make over the next two years with the Jays.  If Burnett throws 190+ innings, he could command $16 million per year.

I also agree with Pistol regarding the minimum salary for the rookies.  It should be increased.  I feel sorry for a player who is good for two years and then gets hurt.  You can't retire on $700,000 over two years, and a lot of these guys don't have an education.  A responsible union would look after ALL of their members, not just the members who have 3 years or more on the job.

crush_99 - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 04:34 PM EST (#178112) #
I'd prefer it if they raised the salary of the triple A guys. The owners and major league players both make an insane amount of money. I doubt the players union would ever let it happen...
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 04:58 PM EST (#178114) #
There is no need to sneak food into the RC. As someone pointed out, you can carry it in, it's not verboten.

You can go to Don Juan's truck with your gf before the game "Hey beautiful, no not you ugly!', get the best sausage/dog with fries in town, and just carry it in. You can't bring in cans though, or anything hard.

I think the Jays fortunes will be decided head-on with the Rays. I suspect the Rays will play them tough this year, and it will be more difficult to finish third than in the past.

I suspect Boston and New York will have insurmountable leads by early June, and the Jays will be duking it out in the CWS/Minn/TB/Tex/Oakland section of the AL, but ahead of Baltimore and KC. I predict lots and lots of trade talk as a result with AJ dealt before the break.
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 05:30 PM EST (#178115) #
I think the min. salary has been raised to 400 K.
Zao - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 05:44 PM EST (#178116) #
I see that April 29 and 30 are at home against Boston while May 1st is at Boston.  Does anyone know which is correct?
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 05:45 PM EST (#178117) #

The Jays have to be considered a long shot to make the playoffs. The competition is just so fierce in the AL these days. But if a few things break right, they could stay in contention. My short list of must-happens:

- Healthy and productive Glaus, Wells, AJ, BJ, Halladay and Zaun

- McGowan continues his progress as a starter

- Marcum and Janssen don't significantly regress

- Rios regains his power stroke (after his post-All Star power outage in 2007)

- Lind approaches everyone's original expectations for him

- Thomas is productive for most of the season, not just a month or two

- Respectable (not awful) seasons from Reed and Lyle

Whew...that's a lot to ask. But I think it will have to be one of those seasons where most of the team brings their A game and stays healthy.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 05:57 PM EST (#178118) #
Boston's schedule on the MLB site is identically in error -- but if you try purchasing Blue Jay tickets, there are no games to select for those dates.

So, I would conclude that those games are in Boston.

Original Ryan - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 06:11 PM EST (#178119) #
Boston's printable schedule has that series in Boston.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 07:57 PM EST (#178122) #
The players union really doesn't care in the slightest what happens to AAA/AA/A guys. They are not members of the union. The MLB Players Union caring about what happens to non-union members would be like the AutoWorkers union caring what happens to Toyota employees (non-union). In many respects for a union it is best if non-union employees get treated like dirt as it makes their union look much more attractive.

Now, getting minor leaguers to organize would be like herding cats as they are shifting levels every two minutes and being released, etc. In truth the union would be smartest to try to organize the minor leaguers and squeeze even more cash from ownership but it isn't going to happen. Too many players would fear being blacklisted and ending up in the minors forever or even in Japan.
AWeb - Wednesday, December 19 2007 @ 10:13 PM EST (#178124) #
I wouldn't agree that Silva is on par with Towers. Silva had a very poor year overall in 2006...

Not that I disagree that Silva is likely notably better than Towers, but Silva had a bad year in 2006? Towers would've killed for his year in 2006, what with the historical levels of suckitude he managed (or had you managed to block that out of your memory like many of us wish we could?). But yeah, overall Silva seems to be a slightly above average starter who's only 28, whereas Towers is a 30 year-old coming off two straight bad years. The difference between the two is a chasm, in terms of what teams will pay for.

I'm happy everytime a decent player ends up outside the division; if the Jays aren't going to do much, I don't want to see the teams they play half the time improve either. Of course, there's still that Santana trade in the wings...
scottt - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 07:51 AM EST (#178125) #
The Jays have to be considered a long shot to make the playoffs. The competition is just so fierce in the AL these days. But if a few things break right, they could stay in contention. My short list of must-happens


Last year, BJ lost 2 games trying to close while hurt. Oka lost 5 games and Towers lost another 10.

Just winning most of these games would have put the Jays very close.

Of course, the Yankees were terrible for the first half of the year. How the Yankees pitch will probably be a determining factor on whether Toronto has a chance or not.

timpinder - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 10:35 AM EST (#178126) #

Jayson Stark just wrote an article about how tough it is for teams like the Jays and Indians to compete in the AL with the high spending Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Angels.  He says they need to pray for health, out pitch the competition, and he quotes an AL executive who says that if the Jays were in the NL they'd, "win the National League".

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3161000

I have to admit it's frustrating having this unbalanced schedule.  People get tired of hearing Ricciardi whine about playing the Yanks and Sox 25% of the time and how tough it is in the AL East, but the fact is he's absolutely right.  I sincerely belive that if the Jays were in the NL they'd be going to the playoffs next year, and probably with a safe lead too.

scottt - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 11:07 AM EST (#178127) #
and he quotes an AL executive who says that if the Jays were in the NL they'd, "win the National League".

That's using a DH right?
timpinder - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 11:58 AM EST (#178128) #
Even without the DH, I think the Jays' lineup would be in the top 3-5 in the NL, on paper.  Their rotation and bullpen would both probably be in the top 3 too.  The Indians would also likely be the best team in the NL, in my humble opinion.  The Yankees, Tigers or Red Sox would probably demolish that league.  Some NL teams have good lineups, like the Mets, but no pitching.  Other teams have good pitching, like the Dodgers or Giants, but average - weak lineups.  Few NL teams are as well rounded as the Jays or Indians.  Overall, I think that the top six teams in the AL are all better, on paper, than the best teams in the NL.  It's just my opinion, but I think Stark is right.  It really is one tough battle for teams in the AL not named New York, Boston, LA or Detroit.  As tough as the Jays and Indians have it, imagine being the Rays or the Royals.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 12:13 PM EST (#178129) #
Don't worry about the Rays.  They'll be fine. 

It is true that there is a significant difference between the two leagues, and the difference between the two strongest divisions- the AL East and Central and the weakest- the NL Central is extremely large.  That said, it is possible for the Jays to compete over a period of years.  Their market size is above average, and really not much smaller than the Red Sox.  If their management (on-field and on-field) was above average, they would be competitive.  They have not maximized their revenue possibilities, nor spent as they might, nor handled/developed talent particularly well.  Their environment does make it unlikely that mediocre management will lead to good results.  That can be a good thing...

Parker - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 01:09 PM EST (#178131) #

I think the reason people get tired of hearing Ricciardi whine about the Red Sox and Yankees is that he knew what he was up against when he took the job.  It's not like MLB realigned the divisions and put Toronto up against these behemoths during his second year as Toronto's GM.

His story has gone from "we're gonna compete with these guys without spending much money" to "we can't compete without spending a lot more money".  If he'd been singing that tune at his job interview it's almost certain someone else would be running the show.

timpinder - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 01:42 PM EST (#178132) #

"Their environment does make it unlikely that mediocre management will lead to good results".

I agree with that.  Ricciardi has to be great, not mediocre, but he's probably been an average GM so far.  If the Jays had signed Pavano, Giambi, Farnsworth, and Igawa to those contracts they'd be absolutely crippled right now.  I think Posada and Rivera will prove to be poor signings too, based on their ages.  Add Damon to that list, and those seven over-paid players alone would consume the entire Jays' payroll.  The Yankees have the money to hide their mistakes though, and the Jays can't afford to make any mistakes.

They can be competative, but they're at a huge disadvantage.  They can't afford to make any mistakes and everything must go right on the field as well.  Check out the payroll disparity:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_teams_by_payroll

The difference between the top teams and just the average teams is simply enormous.  If the Jays had even the Red Sox payroll, and players wanted to come to Toronto, they could have A-Rod playing at SS and wouldn't have any problem signing Johan Santana next year, and they'd still have money to spare.

Ozzieball - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 04:44 PM EST (#178133) #
If the Jays had signed Pavano, Giambi, Farnsworth, and Igawa to those contracts they'd be absolutely crippled right now.  I think Posada and Rivera will prove to be poor signings too, based on their ages.  Add Damon to that list

This is the Yankees second biggest advantage, that they can blow 100M between Igawa and Pavano (seriously, 100M between those two) and keep on chugging. They have no near catching prospects and the rest of the free agent market sucks, so they can afford to give Posada 52/4 because they can afford to eat the last two years of his contract when age catches up. I still don't think this is as big as their first advantage, which is being able to run roughshod over the draft and sign players like Hughes and Joba who, as high-cost-high-risk prospects are untouchable for most other teams. Also using overcap signing bonuses to make 3-5 first pick equivalents a draft. I hate the Yankees so much.

In the end, I think that Alan Ashby put it best when talking about the struggles of the Oakland A's. The best general managers can sign good contracts, make good trades, make good drafts, but ultimately they're still picking up the overlooked players, and the truly best players are not going to be overlooked. Add to this the complicating factor that Cashman and Epstein aren't mental invalids who will submarine their team, and no matter how well run Toronto/Baltimore/Tampa is, they're still facing an almost impossible climb.
Chuck - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 05:11 PM EST (#178134) #
Some interesting defensive numbers.
bryanttelfer - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 05:14 PM EST (#178136) #

 If their management (on-field and on-field) was above average, they would be competitive.  They have not maximized their revenue possibilities, nor spent as they might, nor handled/developed talent particularly well. 

I'd disagree on a couple of things. Toronto faces two major hurtles in competition with the Red Sox and the Yankees.

  • Toronto is not considered an attractive destination by free agents. Historically, Toronto has had to overpay to attract top talent, compared to other teams. We lack the 'legacy' value of the Yankees or the Dodgers, this is a market where even the best baseball player is a second or third rated sports figure against hockey, the growth is almost exclusively Canadian, meaning a diminished visibility and thus less opprotunities for endorsements. Players sign with New York to be a Yankee as a value point of the contract. They sign with Toronto because we're offering the most money/years.
  • Toronto is an extremely inconsistent fan base. Again, even if you want to assume the Blue Jays have a growth market of 31 million people, the Jays have seesawed average attendence from 45K+ to 24K over the last 15 years. Unlike the Yankees and the Red Sox, the Jays cannot count on a highly committed fan base as a regular source of revenue to offset loss.

Over the last few years, the front office has stablized spend, acquired and reinvested in severely needed upgrades to the Rogers Centre, and put the organization in the black with an expanded payroll. Of all the things to criticize the Jays for, their financial management over the last few years is not one of them.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 09:38 PM EST (#178143) #
If the going rate for Carlos Silva is $48M/4 years, the Jays had better come up with a bigger payroll--and fast. Otherwise it will be Halladay/McGowan/Marcum/Janssen/Purcey in 2009. We'll have two extra draft picks (for the departed and very wealthy AJ) and another .500 club. Well, that might be the rotation anyway. No wonder JP has been chasing Lincecum and Bedard. It might make more sense to give in during 2008 and extend AJ for two or three more years.
Alex Obal - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 10:09 PM EST (#178145) #
It might make more sense to give in during 2008 and extend AJ for two or three more years.

That's an interesting question. Right now, AJ is heading into his age-31 season and slated to make $12 million in each of the next 3 years, ignoring the opt-out of course. How much should the Jays be willing to spend on an extension to convince him to waive the opt-out before spring training?
Lefty - Thursday, December 20 2007 @ 10:57 PM EST (#178146) #

Alex, I was actually speculating / advocating on this subject during the past season on the live in-game chats.

The course you outline above makes a lot of sense. We're on the hook this season anyway. If AJ comes up with a broken wing during this season the Jays could well find themselves on the hook for the remaining two years anyway.

I'd strongly consider re-negotiating now. Offer something like $14 for this season, $15 for the following two.

This would put him within the range of expectations and reduce his financial risk for injury this season.

Under this senario, the Jays are gambling an additional $8 million in order to keep him around. If he suffered serious injury they are already in for $36 million anyway. I'd say thats a pretty fair deal for the player and the team.

timpinder - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 12:41 AM EST (#178148) #

With McGowan looking like he's going to be the #2 starter the Jays were hoping to get with Burnett, and with the emergence of Marcum, Janssen and Litsch for the back-end of the rotation, I'd like to see the Jays take the draft picks and let Burnett walk.  Shortstop is going to be a glaring hole again after this year, and it's possible that Glaus will be gone too.  I'd much rather see the Jays spend Burnett's money on a guy like Rafael Furcal next off-season than on the oft-injured Burnett.  Ricciardi can afford to wait and see how the young guys in his rotation continue to develop and how minor-leaguers like Purcey and Romero come along before committing $15 million per year to a flaky starter instead of a SS or 3B.  If the pitching regresses, well you can always trade Rios (Wells isn't going anywhere in CF and Snider is on the way in RF), or you can spend the Burnett/Glaus money and go after a horse like Sabathia or Santana, if they become free agents next year, as scheduled (I can dream, can't I?)

Besides, I don't like the idea of A.J. Burnett making more money than Halladay. 

Geoff - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 02:26 AM EST (#178151) #
Lefty, A.J. might take the extra $8M you propose if he didn't figure to pocket an extra $25 million at least by becoming a free agent. I expect he'll land a contract for at least $60-75M at the end of the season. I'm not sure if the Cards will throw 5 and 75 at him but the Orioles might.

And is it being suggested above that the Jays are leaps and bounds ahead of the Brewers and Cubs? I don't see how the Jays would destroy those teams. The Pirates are laughable and the Astros more so every day. The Cards are in a sad state, but like the Reds I believe will rise again. So is it just a mirage I see of the Brewers and Cubs being legitimate competition should the Jays find themselves in their division on Christmas morning? It's not the same as the Yanks and Sox and while it is imaginable for the Jays to beat both for first place, it's also imaginable that they only reach third.

Am I just not perceptive enough? I wouldn't imagine saying the Jays are head and shoulders above all NL clubs; maybe above all but five or six.   I grant that among those top five NL clubs there is more of a level playing field with the Jays' talent level than the top 5 AL clubs. But I wouldn't be so bold as to say that the Jays would likely dominate any NL division. I'm not sure if I may be underestimating the Jays or overestimating NL pitching or NL bats.

What makes folks think Halladay et al. vs. Zambrano et al. or Sheets et al. is no contest?

Paul D - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 07:40 AM EST (#178152) #
Historically, Toronto has had to overpay to attract top talent, compared to other teams.

I"m not sure there's any proof of this.
scottt - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 09:29 AM EST (#178153) #
The Jays are playing the NL Central in June, so we'll see how they compare.

That's the whole point of inter-league, no?
Mike Green - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 09:58 AM EST (#178155) #
Toronto is not in a position to bind itself to the inefficiencies of the free agent market.  Burnett has given the club an average of 150 innings of 117 ERA+ pitching per year, and that is probably a reasonable expectation on average for him over the next 3 years.  It's not worth the money to extend him.  Take the picks, and use the money that you would have spent on him to extend Rios and Hill for another year, with some left over to buy out a free agency year of one of the pitchers (McGowan, Marcum, Janssen).  You would want to wait a year or two to make a decision about which pitcher to buy out.  I am more interested about the club's prospects in 2011 and 2012 than in 2009 (or 2008) right now.
Chuck - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 10:11 AM EST (#178156) #
The Jays are playing the NL Central in June, so we'll see how they compare. That's the whole point of inter-league, no?

No. The point would be $.
VBF - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 10:20 AM EST (#178157) #
Unlike the Yankees and the Red Sox, the Jays cannot count on a highly committed fan base as a regular source of revenue to offset loss.

It almost seems impossible looking back now, but there were some pretty empty Yankee Stadiums in the early 90s, and late 80s, and quite a few empty Fenway seats in the early 2000s. I'm not sure how bad these teams would have to be to get back to that, but every team, regardless of fan base sees awful looking attendance figures when they don't make the playoffs for an extended period of time.
brent - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 10:27 AM EST (#178158) #

I wasn't able to watch as many games as most fans during Delgado's tenure with the Jays. However, I quite often saw a couple of minutes at high leverage situations. I constantly remember Delgado fairing quite poorly all of the time (it was quite infuriating). Other fans were quite disappointed to have seen him leave the Jays. I felt that he wasn't worth the amount he wanted from the Jays (especially after being one of the best paid in the game). I don't feel much sympathy for him being duped by the Marlins (didn't get that no-trade clause in the contract) and packaged off to the Mets. Anyway, I was curious to see what his "clutch" hitting was like. I went to Baseball Reference to have a look.

Situation         At Bats           BA           OBP            SLG         IBB     SO

RISP                1861             293          415              559         169     447

Lifetime            6591            280           386              549         167    1601

April                  1045            287          402               552         29      271

May                  1285             266          363              516          35      342

June                  1057            268           369             535          24      260

July                   1061            272           386             543          24       266

August              1058            307            405             612          24      218

September        1085             285          395              542          31      244

Vs. RH              4646            288            401             587          153    1092

Vs. LH               1945            262            348             458          14      509

0 outs                2286            303            386             617           12     513

1 out                  2026            291            390             545           65     470

2 outs                 2277           248            382             484           90      618

1st inning             938            261             373             515          7        265

8th inning             753            262             364             497          29      193

9th inning              514           253             360             518          20       145

Extra inn.             114           237              383             404         14        25

2 out RISP           806           248              418             489          90       221

Vs. power pitcher 1872         246             361             491          57        564

With 2 strikes       3318         186              283             346          0         1553

Vs. relief pitcher   2141         268             381              522         97        540

2nd inning                610         318             415             682          2          142

 

I was quite surprised to see how great his overall hitting with RISP was, so I kept looking for more information. I was also surprised to see how strong his Aprils, Augusts, and Septembers were. What really stood out to me was his hitting depending on the number of outs. His numbers surged with none out but plunged with two outs. Does anyone know why? Also, his numbers in the first, eigth, ninth and extra innings were down. Seeing the starting pticher for the first time would probably lower his numbers. In the late innings, he might face more lefty-lefty match-ups. However, his numbers in the late innings were actually worse than his lifetime numbers against lefties. As you could see, Delgado did not fair well against relievers.  Power pitchers also had a significant advantage over him. I know that if a batter has two strikes on him, his numbers will go down and Delgado's plunged. In addition to counter for his down 1st and late innings hitting, Delgado was a fierce hitter in the second inning. He hit more homeruns in this inning than any other (60). He had less 2nd inning at bats than any other inning than the 9th. Presumably, he was usually batting fourth. That means that he would usually be leading off in the second inning (unless it was already a blowout). Most of those 2nd inning HRs were then solo shots. Is anyone able to explain his monster 2nd innings? The final question for me is whether Delgado was as an effective hitter as his overall seasonal stats indicate? For me, he is not the hitter I would be looking for to come through in when the team needs him the most. Would a look at some of his game scores be indicative of the true situation?

 

 

Gerry - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 11:35 AM EST (#178160) #

Baseball America have had a couple of Jays related items recently, both for subscribers only.  Yesterday BA had a short feature on Sergio Santos.  The most promising aspect was his decision tp play winter ball in Mexico because a lot of the Mexican pitchers throw junk and that has been Santos' weakness.  Hopefully that will pay-off in 2008.

Today BA have their organizational rankings with the Jays listed under the "teams in decline" category.  There is not much justification for the decline claim and BA do call JP mediocre for his 83 win average.  That strikes me as harsh, there are a lot of teams who would think 83 wins in the AL East is average, but using the word mediocre seems a cheap-shot to me. 

Mike Green - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 11:58 AM EST (#178162) #
BA is probably looking at the team from an organizational perspective.  It is true that there is very little talent high up in the organization.  Travis Snider is a great prospect, of course, but beyond that, the really interesting players were in the NYPL and GCL and are 2-4 years away. "Team in decline" is probably a good description of expectations for 2008-10.  It is true that the AL East is tough sledding.

"Mediocre" does sound worse than "average", doesn't it?  A little mean for the season, I guess. 



Parker - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 12:04 PM EST (#178163) #
I'm with Mike Green on the Burnett situation.  Even if he wasn't an injury risk, he's getting to an age where we may have to stop realistically believing that he can put it all together and become anything more than an above-average pitcher with flashes of brilliance.  This team isn't a #2 starter away from being a world-beater in 2009-10.  Let Burnett walk and take the compensation; try to contend when this year's crop of picks is Major League-ready.  A Burnett top-up/extension may preclude the team from being able to sign/trade for that little extra push down the stretch in 2011.
AWeb - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 12:35 PM EST (#178164) #
WIth Burnett, why not wait to see how it goes this year, with regards to both his immediate outlook, and the team's. The Jays might end up needing Burnett, warts and all, for a while longer, after a few serious pitching injuries (which happen all the time) to other guys. Or they may want to bring back the WS MVP. Being the depths of winter, it's hard to resist forecasting, but to say Burnett doesn't fit the Jays' needs in 2009 or 2010 is a little silly. It's possible that Burnett could be the best pitcher on the Jays in 2008 and sorely needed going forward. It's also possible he finally has that "big" injury and misses the year, at which point the Jays pay, Yankee's style, for a pitcher to rehab and constantly struggle. This is why player options suck...you lose a player doing well, or keep a player doing poorly.

greenfrog - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 12:45 PM EST (#178166) #

Toronto is not in a position to bind itself to the inefficiencies of the free agent market. 

The problem is that you can't decouple yourself from the free agent market and be successful—especially not in the AL East. The free agent market affects all other aspects of the market (eg the cost of buying out arbitration years, signing foreign players and making trades).

The D-Rays seem to be building around blue-chip prospects, but that’s only because they’ve finished at or near the bottom of the standings for years—hardly an appealing rebuilding strategy. And even the Rays will have to sign some pricey free agents eventually if they’re serious about making the playoffs.

Wildrose - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 01:05 PM EST (#178167) #
I don't think an extension will be happening according to Ricciardi's own words ( scroll to bottom), although Burnett's agent seems to be open to this.   In my opinion the team seems to feel ( rightly or wrongly) that Burnett is a pussy who won't pitch through pain,  certainly not worth the risk for a long term contract. I think somebody however, given the current market, if he has a relatively healthy 2008, will pay him around $ 80-90 million over the next 5 years. Certain teams just seem to love big power pitchers  , I see him as a Met at this time in 2008. I can certainly see the arguement for not extending him, unless he gave you an unlikely team discount.
Newton - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 02:14 PM EST (#178168) #

With a huge payday looming as his incentive the odds are strong that Burnett pitches through his aches and pains this season to prove his durability.

I expect him to be one of the top handful of starters in the AL this season. 

That being said I still wouldn't touch him on a long term deal.

Let's hope the Jays are in the hunt and that we derive some value out of him while he's here and motivated.

Wildrose - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 02:53 PM EST (#178169) #
Wilner tells us what he thinks. I must admit I like Mike, it's good to see somebody on the Jays beat who has an inkling about sabermetrics. I've found him to be a company shill at times ( I guess you need to know who pays the bill), but in his blog he's fairly forth-right.
Mike Green - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 04:05 PM EST (#178172) #
The issue, AWeb, is an extension now, in the face of Burnett's opt-out option at the end of 2008.  If he does not opt out, the Jays have him at $12 million for 2009-10.  If he has a big year and opts out, the price will be much more than $12 million.  As far as I am concerned, the worst case scenario by far is not the opt-out but the arm blowout.  It is not a theoretical concern.
Parker - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 05:58 PM EST (#178175) #

I think the worst-case scenario is the one where his contract is extended this winter to pay him $75M through 2011 and he blows out his arm in Spring Training next year.

Hopefully this one IS a theoretical concern, though.

Lefty - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 06:43 PM EST (#178177) #

If he blows his arm out in spring training or during the course of this season the Jays are on the hook for the remainer of his contract.

Thats why I would offer up, not an extentsion, but a buy out of his option. Who knows what that might cost, but I think Ricciardi and AJ might. If it cost $8-10 million to buy the opt out option I think this makes good financial sense. Burnett would still be young enough to go out and get himself one more great contract if he proved durable.

And if we have too much pitching then so what. Some say let Burnett walk this year and take the two first picks. Well, there's no guarantee he will bring back two first picks if Elias rates him a B class free agent, due to an injury. If Marcum and Purcey perform like some expect they might, they would certainly bring back young talented middle infielders in a trade, or a third baseman. This might be a faster route to getting long term solutions at those positions.

Mike highlights concern over the free agent market "Toronto is not in a position to bind itself to the inefficiencies of the free agent market."  This is exactly why I explore the posibilty of buying Burnett's option. Everyone knows the price of wheat is going up. Everyone also understands there are hardly ever attainble free agent pitchers on the market. We have one of those right now. One who might be inclined to beleive a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, for a few dollars more. But who knows for sure. Only the parties to the agreement do.

Letting Burnett go for a pick or two does not fix next years hole at third or short. And anyway, how do we know the team won't waste those picks and where those picks will be in the draft.

I maintain that for a reasonable price, buying the option is a good and safe move.

Mylegacy - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 08:42 PM EST (#178182) #

Mlb.com the Jay's site, has an interview with Gibby about batting order. He's got Thomas, Glaus as 4 - 5. He mutters about Rios and Wells speed being 2 - 3 or 3 - 2. Eckstein is leadoff. The rest fall where they may.

I see Eckstein (360+ OBP) leadoff, Stairs (who will be our REGULAR LF'er against Righties - 2/3's of the at bats - Stairs was against righties 289/365/569 and lefties 289/396/422 I can't think of a better number two guy. Also as you all know he's a lefty.), Rios, Thomas, Glaus, Overbay, Wells, Zaun, Hill.

God willin' and the river don't rise that line-up has me going all goose-bumpy all over!

On Burnett. The guy is a HORSE! But a fragile one. I say beat his a** into the ground this year, if he survives let some sucker give him a king's ransom next year, if he breaks down - we'll have him for the next two years and we'll use him less so he'll last - even used for 20 to 25 starts a year he's worth 12 million. IF we are to compete in the AL East after 08 we'll NEED AJ or Purcey to become AJ-Lite. A real possibility. Purcey is the only possible ACE anywhere in our minors.

Santana or Lincecum would sure look good down the road. Sigh.

AWeb - Friday, December 21 2007 @ 08:52 PM EST (#178183) #
Buying the option makes a lot more sense to me than working out an extension and buying out the option. An extension would be worked out, essentially, like he was a free agent in coming years, which he will be if he opts out. I don't see the advantage to the Jays pre-emptively signing him to an even longer contract, which still has three years left on it already. If Burnett opts for free agency after a good, healthy year, try to resign him if you still want him. Yes, his price would be higher than if you did it right now, but in two years, Burnett has given them 150 IP/year (good ones, but not enough of them). That's not something the Jays can spend 17 million a year on right now.

By the end of the 2008 season, the Jays should have a much clearer idea as to the relative mertis of Marcum, McGowan, Janssen, and maybe Litsch. Will they want Burnett at, say, 17 million a year in 2009 and 2010? I think as of now the answer is maybe, and the Jays can't commit to possible futures with large sums of money (unless they decide to raise payroll significantly).  Is there any rational reason to think Burnett will stay healthier going forward than he has in the past? The fact he threw 700 pitches in 6 September starts, just like he did earlier in the year before getting injured, worries me.

On an unrelated note, baseball reference has another awesome new feature in the game logs, where you can click on two games, and get the summed stats between those games, and an easy way to get cumulative stats as well. Well, it's new to me anyway.

timpinder - Saturday, December 22 2007 @ 01:12 AM EST (#178189) #

Purcey's name has been brought up here a few times as a possible starter for the Jays post-Burnett.  I mentioned him as well.  But is he still projected as a starter?  What exactly was the injury he suffered and did it require surgery?  I ask because I've recently read a couple of articles that suggested his future was likely as a reliever, not as a starter.

MyLegacy,  is Purcey really the only guy in our system with "Ace" stuff?  I don't get to see minor league games (though I'm really hoping the Chiefs move to Buffalo).  I've heard that Cecil and Ginley both have front-of-the-rotation stuff, and that Romero has 3 or 4 above average pitches, which, as a lefty, could see him become a #2 starter, if not an "ace". 

 

Mylegacy - Saturday, December 22 2007 @ 02:13 AM EST (#178190) #

TimPetc... - the last Jay's minor league game I was to was in Medicine Hat in the year of our Lord 1673. On reflection it might have been a few years later than that.

As to Purcey being the "only (potential) ACE" in our system - that's my take drawn from my wasted life of spending several hours a day reading about our beloved Jays from every source in the civilized world and the Toronto Sun as well. Guys like Janssen, Marcum, Romero, Banks and Cecil are handy arms, indeed they can be nice complementary pieces on a contender but they are not the ACE 1 or 2 guys you need to dominate. Purcey - if he ever learns to throw the ball where he wants to throw it - has, like: Roy, AJ and McGowan - ACE STUFF.

China fan - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 10:37 AM EST (#178203) #
Wilner, in his blog, suggests that Robinson Diaz might be ready for the majors by mid-season. If this is true, it would help to explain why the Jays have been rather passive and almost indifferent in their pursuit of the free-agent catchers. (Or, in the case of Lo Duca, they might have figured that it was sufficient to have one steroids-linked catcher on their roster, and two would be somewhat excessive.) Do we agree that Diaz could be ready for the big leagues so soon? If it's unlikely, or risky, then I think the Jays need to be much more serious in their pursuit of a catcher. It strikes me as penny-pinching of the worst order to leave a sinkhole in the lineup (on the days when Zaun is not batting) just to save a couple million dollars (2 or 3 per cent of the payroll).
manner84 - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 11:28 AM EST (#178205) #
I may be one of the few Jays fans that are excited about opening day being in the Bronx, as I live in NY. This is my first post so I apologize if its not in the correct thread. I wanted to get the outside NY prospective on the Jabba-Johan deal. Because inside this fishbowl of Yankee indoctronation you would think Jabba was the reincarnation of a impressive lefty who used to wear #32 for the Dodgers.
westcoast dude - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 02:15 PM EST (#178208) #

Welcome to the Board, manner 84. Twins waxed the Bombers, IMHO.

China fan, I like Robinson Diaz starting by July, or even sooner, if necessary.  No point in wearing him out in AAA when he'll be ready to go. Like Robinson Cano, Diaz is blessed with the Robinson  Factor Mojo. Expect big things from this future All-Star.  He's a huge upgrade on everything else (good catching is the scarcest commodity of all) .

Mylegacy - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 03:26 PM EST (#178213) #
Diaz is a real question mark. On one hand, he's won all-star in most leagues he's played in. On the other hand, pitchers apparently hate him. However, last year he is alleged to have made a great leap forward with his defensive work. As a hitter, he's a Wade Boggs type of singles hitter, except that Wade also took walks by the ton - something that just isn't in Diaz's vocabulary. His batting average (usually over 300) is remarkably similar to his OBP.
Gerry - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 03:41 PM EST (#178214) #

As a hitter Diaz is a hacker, he rarely walks or strikes out.  He is known as a bad ball hitter, his average is likely to drop in the major leagues as he sees fewer bad pitches, but how much it drops will be interesting. 

Diaz's defense needs work, he has a very good arm and his ability to work with pitchers is improving, he needs to work on his receiving which is still behind.  Diaz has always had a lot of confidence, over-confidence according to some, he might have to survive a settling in period in the big leagues.

ramone - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 04:00 PM EST (#178215) #

Speaking of Diaz did any one notice that he has played one game of Dominican League Winter Ball and hasn't played since.  I know he had hand surgery at the end of last season and the plan was to rehab in winter ball.  Does any one have any info on this, is he hurt again?

 

Also seems like Thigpen has fallen in the depth charts?  Curious if they're going to try and turn him into super utility player, third, first, second and left field?

TamRa - Sunday, December 23 2007 @ 04:45 PM EST (#178217) #
Wilmer is taking that from something JP said. i for one am skeptical Diaz will ever be our starting catcher. I think when Zaun's gone we will persue another vet and Diaz will be at best a reserve until Jerlman or Arenchiba arrive in which case he'll become a utility guy, if not before.

Of course, I'm no expert...


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