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As usual, most of the spots are spoken for.


Because very little in this world makes sense anymore, we can probably expect the Blue Jays to carry seven relief pitchers.  A 12 man pitching staff means just 13 hitters, and twelve of those jobs are signed, sealed, and delivered.

The starting lineup will have Zaun catching, Overbay, Hill, Eckstein and Rolen in the infield, Rios, Wells, and Johnson in the outfield. Stairs, Scutaro, and McDonald will be on the bench, along with the extra catcher. Right now, that looks like Fasano unless a new name gets added to the mix.

On the outside, looking in - Adam Lind, Curtis Thigpen, Russ Adams,  Rey Olmedo, Joe Inglett...

Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum are sure to fill four of the rotation spots. Litsch is the incumbent fifth starter. Let's leave him there for the moment.

In which case, the bullpen will certainly include Accardo, Janssen, Downs, and Frasor. And leading the charge for the final three spots would be Wolfe, Tallet, and League.

That's your 25 guys, with Ryan opening the year on the DL.

There's obviously a very good chance that Casey Janssen will be given a chance to take the fifth starter's job, and should he do so I would expect Litsch to begin the year starting in the minors rather than relieving in the majors. Which opens up another  bullpen job, at least to start the season - an opening for Camp or Wells or someone who gets hot in Florida.

Gustavo Chacin may yet be heard from, but I'd be pretty surprised if that happens in April. We can be pretty sure that more starters will eventually be needed. I certainly expect that both Burnett and Marcum will miss a few starts.

I've been away, gang. But I'm easing back into it. I've been going over the predictions we all made last spring, and I'll post a report on it shortly.  Suffice it to say that... how shall I put this... we did not distinguish ourselves. Out of 100 possible points, the winner (take a bow, electric carrot!) scored 45.

Anyway, that's enough from me for now. I'm a big chess fan, and on the occasion of the passing of Bobby Fischer ( an obnoxious repulsive loony, but one of the three greatest players who ever lived)... I'm going to have a game. Against the computer. Which I will lose.






Roster Construction 2008 | 58 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
christaylor - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 08:51 AM EST (#179126) #
As far as what the roster will be on opening day, it is hard to disagree with the original post, but I hope that the organization will consider three things. First, not gifting the backup catching job to Fasano (or other veteran re-tread). Diaz and Thigpen need to be given a serious shot. This isn't a major issue if Zaun can produce but it is meaningful for the future...I have a sinking suspicion that Zaun is going to fall off a cliff this year (better catchers have at the same age, the most recent Blue Jays example that comes to mind is Fletcher) and a league average, young catcher would be really valuable to have. I'm tired of seeing this organizations parade of aged vets (Huckaby, Myers (although that was the most baffling and amazing performance ever by a Jays catcher), Wilson, Philips, Fasano).  Other than perhaps SS, C is the position that JP has consistently handled in an a most baffling way. Lastly, I have no faith in a Stairs/Johnson platoon. I hope JP has an open mind and is willing to be convinced by Lind's play in ST. One of the big reasons why I have no faith in the S/J platoon is that Gibbons has consistently shown that he doesn't know how to use a strict platoon. Here's hoping that Gibbons becomes Bobby Cox and that S/J won't fail like I feel it will.
Zao - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 09:05 AM EST (#179127) #

<i>One of the big reasons why I have no faith in the S/J platoon is that Gibbons has consistently shown that he doesn't know how to use a strict platoon.</i>

Really??  I always thought this was one of his strong points.  I thought his handling of the Johnson/Cat platoon was marvelous and I can't think of any other strict platoons.  There was Rios/Hinske for about a month before Rios emerged.  Were there others I'm forgetting?

peiscooter - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 10:09 AM EST (#179128) #

The roster does look pretty much set at this point in terms of position players and I'm hopeful that Thigpen will start the year in Toronto with Fasano at Syracuse as injury depth and a backup to Diaz.  I'd like to see Diaz play regularly looking ahead to a possible Zaunless 2009.

I also like the depth in our infield with Scutaro and Johnny Vac as backups and depth with Adams, Olmedo and Inglett at Syracuse.  I didn't think last years depth of Howie Clark, John Hattig, and Ryan Roberts provided much security. 

As for pitching, with Litsch as the 5th starter, keeping Randy Wells as a Rule 5 condition will affect one of Wolfe, League or Tallett.  Problem solved, howver, if Janssen moves into the rotation and Litsch starts the year in Syracuse with Chacin.

Chuck - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 10:11 AM EST (#179129) #

I thought his handling of the Johnson/Cat platoon was marvelous

I agree. But, the situation may be slightly different this time around. Johnson entered 2007 as the incumbent fulltime LF so there's a seemingly widely held concern (unless my spidey senses are off) that he may be given the opportunity to regain that status in 2008, having lost it due to injury. Or, at the very least, that he'll be in a 50/50 job share with Stairs which would mean that he'd still face more RHP than is palatable.

Unless I have entirely misread this, I don't see Stairs/Johnson as analagous to Catalanotto/Johnson, at least not right away.

christaylor - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 10:57 AM EST (#179130) #
I didn't think the Catalanotto/Johnson was handled that well especially because of two factors, first Gibbons handed Johnson the everyday LF job when he ought not to have and the lack of a DH on the 2006 team made it such that Gibbons really wasn't juggling a platoon really (both Johnson and Cat got over 800 ABs together, IIRC).
ANationalAcrobat - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 11:00 AM EST (#179131) #
Many of you have expressed concern that Fasano will start the year in the majors. His deal is a minor league one, so it will not be a problem to stash him away in AAA where he can hopefully be a sort of player-coach. I strongly doubt he will get the MLB job since it would mean Thigpen and Diaz would be splitting time at AAA, which makes little sense.
christaylor - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 11:02 AM EST (#179132) #
Also, after some thought, I really hope that Purcey gets a serious look in ST. I don't have much faith in Litsch and I really hope that Janssen stays in the bullpen. While I hope I'm wrong, I don't see League ever being a useful bullpen arm again. His mechanics were totally different in 2007 from 2006, not a good sign. Chacin's days as an effective pitcher are probably done as well.
timpinder - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 11:08 AM EST (#179133) #

I expect Stairs to start against righthanded pitching and Johnson to start against lefthanded pitching, with Johnson getting added time as a defensive replacement, just like the 2006 Johnson/Catalanotto platoon.  If that's the case, then it should be a very effective platoon.  Lind will get a chance since injuries happen, and if he's demolishing AAA pitching the Jays will have to find a spot for him one way or another.

As for the roster, I don't see League returning to form but I still expect a bullpen of Ryan (at least by May), Accardo, Downs, Frasor, Wolfe, Tallet, League.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Purcey in the bullpen by the end of May, though.  Originally I had Janssen in the rotation and Litsch in the pen, but Magpie's probably right that the Jays will keep Litsch starting in AAA so that he's ready to replace the first injured starter.  The only change in the roster I'd like to see is Thigpen instead of Fasano.  It sounds like the Jays are making a play for another catcher, though, so we'll see.

As it stands now, the rotation looks very good and the bullpen looks above average - very good depending on Ryan's health.  The lineup is vicious against lefthanders and with the additions of Eckstein and Rolen, a strict platoon of Stairs/Johnson and the return of a healthy Overbay, the lineup should be much improved and quite solid against righthanders.  With the great defense, including the late inning defensive options of McDonald and Johnson, this is a contending team that you could argue is the third - sixth best team in the AL.  It's going to be a great race, let the wild ruckus begin!

CaramonLS - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 12:26 PM EST (#179134) #

I expect Stairs to start against righthanded pitching and Johnson to start against lefthanded pitching, with Johnson getting added time as a defensive replacement, just like the 2006 Johnson/Catalanotto platoon.  If that's the case, then it should be a very effective platoon.

Ding Ding Ding.  If this is how it is handled this will be one of the more productive corner positions and combined will likely demolish number set by either Rios/Wells in terms of combined production at the position.  Hopefully Gibby has learned this off season no to mess around with Stairs.  Never, ever should your best hitter vs. RHP be leading off a game vs. RHP or batting 2nd.

The biggest concern for me this year is not who gets the extra spots, but who ends up batting in what order through the year - is Wells going to earn his cleanup/#3 Role, or will he be batting #7 or #8 like he should to beginthe year, or could we have a possible sinkhole at that spot, sabotaging the lineup each night?

Dave Till - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 01:37 PM EST (#179135) #
I am going to make a prediction here: Dustin McGowan is going to suffer an arm injury this year. He was worked hard at the end of last year, he's still young, and he doesn't exactly indestructible out there.

Note: I have often been wrong in the past. And I fervently hope that I am wrong this time too.

SheldonL - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 01:37 PM EST (#179136) #
batting Wells 7th or 8th is a ridiculous proposition...something akin to Torre batting A-Rod 8th in the playoffs a couple of years ago.
Like it or not, Wells is our franchise player... not because we're paying him $126 mil for the next 7 years but because he's a legitimate number 3 hitter and his Gold Glove capabilities are something you build teams around. Don't go out there and insult him by putting him in the 7th spot. Look at his career(multiple Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger), he's earned the number 3 spot.

For radical strategic reasons, I would bat him number 2 but the world is not ready for such innovation(btw, Swisher batted in the 2 spot alot the past couple of years).
Dave Till - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 01:38 PM EST (#179137) #
That should read "he doesn't exactly look indestructible out there". Me not proofread good.
Jevant - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 01:43 PM EST (#179138) #
Funny you say that, because watching McG at the end of last year, I thought that is overall mechanics looked much smoother, which led me to believe that he was going to put it together and stay healthy.

But if you have some sort of inside knowledge, I'd appreciate it, because I need to ensure that I figure out what to do with him in my dynasty league...

Anders - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 02:13 PM EST (#179139) #
Don't go out there and insult him by putting him in the 7th spot. Look at his career(multiple Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger), he's earned the number 3 spot.

Not to get all out of sorts or anything here, but this is a ridiculous proposition. You don't 'earn' a particular batting order spot, and you certainly don't earn one in baseball based on defensive performance (though if you're John McDonald you can earn the number 9 hole I guess.) Vernon Wells is, at this point in his career, a .281/.331/.478 hitter, and he hit significantly worse than that last year. That doesn't really scream top of the order, and his .228/.290/.362 batting line in the 3 hole last year doesn't suggest otherwise.

On the balance of things Wells should probably hit 6th, and is at this point maybe the Jays 5th or 6th best hitter (behind Rios, Thomas, the Reed/Stairs platoon, and then maybe Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen.)

HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 02:22 PM EST (#179140) #
^^^^^^^ Ya. That.

Old friend Keith Law doesb't like the Rolen trade for the Jays, for the normal reasons (extra year, worse hitter, more injured). But he did have a little tidbit which I'm reading as praise for Snider.

"Adam: Bruce drew 113 BBs in 1157 cumulative Minor League Atbats. His line was .299/.362/.543. If he can sit at .310 with that line (and the subsequent bump in OBP and SLG) then yeah, that's a star. Maybe I don't see the hype, but I know I don't see any reason to think he'll draw more walks at the MLB level.

SportsNation Keith Law: The reason would be age - he's young, he's got time to develop as a hitter, and he's been young for his leagues so far. But riddle me this: What's the difference between him and Travis Snider except a year of experience? "
Mike Green - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 02:29 PM EST (#179141) #
The major differences between Snider and Bruce are  that Bruce has played centerfield, and that he actually made the age 19-20 developmental advance in 2007  that I am pretty sure Snider will make this year.  These things are not guaranteed though.

I'd like to see Thigpen get half the catching job, but it probably won't happen. And as I have said, Janssen to the rotation, Litsch to the bullpen is a move that is key to the club's success, in my view.  As Dave Till alluded to, injuries can be expected, and if they happen, Casey Janssen is the pitcher that the club needs to step up.  Purcey in the major league bullpen rather than the Syracuse rotation would also make me quite happy.





Mick Doherty - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 02:43 PM EST (#179143) #
The starting lineup will have Zaun catching, Overbay, Hill, Eckstein and Rolen in the infield, Rios, Wells, and Johnson in the outfield.

Not sure how this affects the roster construction as outlined, but don't you need a DH listed there? Or does that thought Hurt you too much for some reason?
Marc Hulet - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 02:55 PM EST (#179144) #

Purcey starting the season on the MLB roster is wishful thinking, I imagine. Dick Scott, director of player development, has said Purcey may begin the year in Double-A, where he pitched last year until getting injured. There is a chance that he could begin in Triple-A if he has a strong spring... but the MLB seems like a stretch.

scottt - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 03:51 PM EST (#179146) #
The lineup is pretty even now. I don't think it  matter much where Wells bat.
On the other hand, Well could steal a lot of bases if he's not hitting in front of Frank Thomas.

We're not going to see Rios batting behind Johnny Mac anymore.

I'd be surprised if Gibbons doesn't tweak the lineup everyday.

Litsch has 2 relief appearances in the minor. There's no way he's starting the year in the bullpen.

If League is not ready to start as the setup guy, it might makes more sense to give him some regular work at AAA.

Remember, we're second guessing a team that started Victor Zambrano in the pen last year.






Mike Green - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 06:00 PM EST (#179147) #
You are probably right about Purcey, Marc.  I wouldn't have stuck Collins in the GCL either....
SheldonL - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 06:14 PM EST (#179149) #
We have the luxury of having several potential number 3 hitters: Rios, Wells, Rolen, Overbay. Our cleanup guy without question appears to be Thomas. For the leadoff role, it's either Eckstein or Johnson.
I don't necessarily agree with these "formulations" (ie. leadoff guy=high OBP, cleanup hiter=most powerful hitter, number 3=best overall hitter).
I'm just saying that since baseball(read that "GIbby) is still stuck on this sort of lineup, I don't want us to be robbed of at-bats from Wells.
I think Rios has been our best hitter so according to the formulation, he should hit 3rd. But then, Wells hits 5th IMO. Then Rolen hits 6th and Overbay 7th....which is ridiculous because Rolen and Overbay will lose at-bats over the course of the season. I really mean plate appearances here.

Example: In '06, the 3-4-5 hitters were Wells, Glaus, Overbay. Aaron Hill batted 7th or 8th(off the top of my head). They all played about the same number of games(153-157) each. Wells had 611AB+54 BB, Overbay 581 AB+54 BB, Hill had 546AB+42BB, Glaus 540AB+86BB.
Do you see how pronounced these splits are! I don't want to see Wells(who's career line is very good for centerfielders...even his worst season (probably '05) makes his bat very good) robbed of at-bats. This guy has usually been good for around 70 extra base hits a year. That would make him the cream f the crop for number 7 hitters....that's why I think it's ridiculous!
scottt - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 09:16 PM EST (#179150) #
Hill was the 7th hitter last year and had 66 extra base hits.

The Yankees usually have Cano batting 7th. He was .306 last year with 67 extra base hits.

Just look at the Tigers. Who do you bat 7-8-9 on that team?



Chuck - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 09:36 PM EST (#179151) #

I don't want to see Wells(who's career line is very good for centerfielders...even his worst season (probably '05) makes his bat very good) robbed of at-bats.

First off, I can't see any argument for any season other than 2007 as being his worst.

Second, I think you may be overestimating the man's bat. He's had two very good offensive seasons, three where he's been slightly below or slightly above league average and last year's clinker. His OPS+ from 2002 to 2007: 96, 132, 105, 104, 129, 85. For his career, he's at 108.

Now, if he can provide a 100 OPS+ and play gold glove defense, well, you've got yourself a valuable player. But unless he can repeat his 2003 or 2006 numbers, this is not someone with an inalienable right to lay claim to the heart of the batting order.

SheldonL - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 10:38 PM EST (#179152) #
I think we've got 7-8-9 hitters of sorts with Zaun, Eckstein, and Johnson-Stairs platoon.
I think our top six must be the rest(Wells, Rios, Thomas, Rolen, Hill, Overbay...in no particular order). I don't see the logic in batting any of these guys in the number 7 spot.
IMO, the ideal lineup would be
Wells, Hill, Rios, Thomas, Overbay, Rolen
then Johnson-Stairs, Zaun, Eckstein.

As for Cano batting 7th....big mistake on the Yankees part. Instead of 66 extra-base hits, the could have seen him hit 70+.
david wang - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 11:02 PM EST (#179153) #
You don't want someone with a career 330 OBP and 315 OBP vs RH leading off, no matter the circumstance.

I think Eckstein and his speed, 350 OBP and lack of power should be leading off vs RH and put Vernon at the 7 or 6 where his low walks doesnt hurt and his power can be better used to also drive people on base in to start the year and if he hits well, he goes up.

Vs RH

Eckstein
Stairs
Rios
Thomas
Rolen
Overbay
Wells
Hill
Zaun

It splits up the lineup R/L as best as possible, Overbay and Stairs can be switched and Rolen and Thomas can also be switched, but I think this is the best lineup for the Jays against Righties subscribing to the your best hitters go in the 2 and 4 slots philosphy.
melondough - Saturday, January 19 2008 @ 11:29 PM EST (#179154) #

The Chicago Tribune has a ringing endorsement for the acquisition of Rolen, giving the advantage to the Blue Jays.  It will be pretty exciting IF Rolen returns to form.

"Rolen is one of the best ballplayers in the major leagues and Glaus is a streaky hitter capable of carrying his team for a month every season. Rolen was a foundation player with his teams in Philadelphia and St. Louis; Glaus, who at the time faced major issues with his back, wasn't offered a chance to stay in Anaheim after 2004, when he reached free agency, and now Arizona and Toronto have traded him in a two-year stretch"

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-080119rogersinside,1,3763531.column?coll=cs_tab01_whitesox_layout

With respect to the lineup I thought I read not too long ago that Gibbons plans on hitting Rios and Wells back to back.  If so, then I can imagine Wells hitting #2 and Rios #3.  I hope not.

timpinder - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 01:37 AM EST (#179157) #
Based on the comments made by Ricciardi and Gibbons, I imagine the lineup will be similar to Eckstein-Wells-Rios-Thomas-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Stairs-Zaun.  I'd like to see Wells and Overbay swap, but Gibbons has said that he wants Wells and Rios at the top of the order so that they can use their speed (that was before Glaus was traded, though).  Against lefthanders I imagine Johnson will be in there instead of Stairs, probably near the bottom of the order despite the fact that he has been far superior to Eckstein against lefties over the course of their careers.  We'll see.  At any rate, this lineup is much improved against righties and should be less frustrating to watch.
Alex Obal - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 01:47 AM EST (#179159) #
Gibbons has said that he wants Wells and Rios at the top of the order so that they can use their speed

Here's what I don't get. Isn't speed most useful in front of singles/groundball/hacker hitters who put the ball in play a lot and don't walk much? If he wants to make the best use of Rios and Wells' speed, why in blazes would he hit either of them in front of Frank Thomas, who is not a singles or groundball hitter and does not put the ball in play a lot and is extraordinarily patient and does not not walk much?

I think batting one of those guys behind Thomas and Stairs/Overbay and in front of Hill makes a lot of sense. If Eckstein must hit leadoff and that means one of Wells and Rios is hitting 6th or 7th, that's life.
Mick Doherty - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 02:30 AM EST (#179161) #
Folks, please ...

If you have reliable information to share, if possible provide a link to details or at least name your source. Otherwise, even if your information is correct -- and we have no way of knowing if it is -- it opens the door to all kinds of wild, rampant supposed-insider information from other people, the type of online rhetoric that often causes flameouts on ESPN.com boards and the like.

I am not contesting or questioning the validity of anything posted here recently or previously (well, okay, there have been some wildly inappropriate and incorrect speculative posts that claimed supposed connections in the past, but we need not revisit those.)

It's nice to have inside connections, butsharing information publicly really necessitates a source, or else a post should be framed as speculation. It will (and certainly should) be taken that way anyway, without substantiation.

We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.

Chuck - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 08:51 AM EST (#179164) #

Isn't speed most useful in front of singles/groundball/hacker hitters who put the ball in play a lot and don't walk much?

Alex, Bill James said as much 25 years ago and yet lineups continue to be constructed so that speedy runners bat in front of homerun hitters and not singles hitters, where their speed can best be leveraged. The one exception we sometimes see is the use of a speedy guy in the 9th hole. who can use his speed in front of the top of the order.

On paper, I like Wells batting 7th (againt RHP, anyway), as some have suggested. I just don't see that happening to the team's highest paid player.

melondough - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 10:32 AM EST (#179167) #

Based on the comments made by Ricciardi and Gibbons, I imagine the lineup will be similar to Eckstein-Wells-Rios-Thomas-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Stairs-Zaun

Timpinder, I don't see Gibbons hitting lefties in three of the last four spots.  I definately don't see him hitting lefties back to back.  But from JP's comments, which I also remember reading, I do see Rios and Wells up at the top hitting back to back.  Against righties I think it makes the most amount of sense to have an order like: Eckstein,Rios,Wells,Overbay,Thomas,Stairs,Rolen,Hill,Zaun (or flip Wells and Rios if we have the 2006 Wells, also maybe flip Overbay and Stairs depending on which Overbay we see). 

Everytime I try and construct a lineup, I always have problems due to Thomas.  A large part of me wishes the Jays never signed him and instead had a more veritile hitting power hitting OF (i.e.2008 Lind) that could be rotated through the OF.  Actually would there be much oppositon to JP trading Thomas for a servicable bench player and a decent #3 starter?  If he did we could split the OF/DH/1B duties between Lind,Johnson, Overbay(1B only), and Stairs.  This would smash righthanded pitching - just a thought.  The biggest problem ofcourse if finding an AL team thinking they are playoff worthy and in need of a DH and willing to pay his salary.  Here are some possibilities:

Thomas to Seattle for Vidro and Jeff Weaver (or a good prospect instead of Weaver that we could flip for a #4 starter).  Vidro is owed $8.5 million this year and becomes a free agent after this year - he is a switch hitting DH who also played a handful of games at 2B and 1B.

Thomas to Texas.  Texas has Botts pencilled in as the starting DH which is why Rotoworld reported yesterday that they have some interest in Sosa.  I think they make the most sense from a match of where to send Thomas.  Question is who to get back.  Would they be willing to move McCarthy and Byrd?

Thomas to KC for Teahan and De La Rosa (or maybe Teahan straight up).  They have Mike Sweeney as their starting DH.

Thomas to Minesotta.  Their starting DH is Rondell White.  Don't know what to get in return.

Thoughts?

 

timpinder - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 11:51 AM EST (#179169) #

melondough,

I certainly don't think that the batting order I posted was the best way to balance out the lineup, I just think that's how Gibbons is going to do it.  He said that Eckstein will be leading off and that he'd like Wells and Rios to hit back-to-back in front of Thomas who he's said will be his his cleanup hitter.  Based on those comments, there's your first four hitters.  As for having three lefthanded hitters at the bottom of the order, Zaun may be a switch hitter, but he's much better hitting righthanded and has a career OPS of .726 hitting lefthanded against RHP, so I would still like to see him hit at the bottom of the order against righties.  Rolen has pretty even splits, so if Overbay's not going to be hitting higher in the lineup against RHP then I'd at least like to see Rolen moved up.  We'll see how it plays out, I just think that Gibbons is stubborn and will have Eckstein leading off, Thomas hitting cleanup, and Wells in the second or third spot, stats and opposition pitching be damned.

Jimbag - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 01:30 PM EST (#179172) #
I agree Gibbons can be stubborn - though he did move Vernon around in the order a bit last year to try and get an offensive spark out of him.

Not necessarily a balanced lineup, but I think the order will look sort of like this for the better part of next season:
vs.  LHP
Eck
Rios
Rolen
Thomas
Wells
Overbay
Hill
Johnson
Zaun


vs RHP:
Eck
Overbay
Rios
Thomas
Rolen
Wells
Stairs
Zaun
Hill

I'm not very good at reading minds, but I think that's probably what Gibby has in mind - at least to start the season. If Lind can make himself unignorable @ AAA, that would change things. Obviously, injuries and days off will alter the lineup, too..but that's my best guess as to how Gibby will fill out the cards every day. Hopefully Wells will have a great season at the plate and move up from the 5-6 slot I have him in right now....


Rickster - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 01:34 PM EST (#179173) #

Thomas to Seattle for Vidro and Jeff Weaver

Ha! Did you just wake up from a coma? It isn't 2002 any more - these players are now quite lousy. Weaver posted a 1.53 WHIP last year, and struck out 4.7 per 9IP.

Vidro put up the same OBP as Thomas last year and slugged a paltry .394 in the DH spot.

Thomas to KC for Teahan and De La Rosa

Other than getting rid of De La Rosa, why would the Royals ever make that deal?

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 01:37 PM EST (#179175) #
According to BP AJ and Roy were 3 and 4 respectively in Pitcher Abuse Points last year. This is especially troubling about AJ considering he compiled the numbers in 6 less starts and has generally been less healthy than Roy (Appendix and line drives not withstanding). Should this be a cause for concern in the coming year?

BP Link
http://tinyurl.com/2vn2px

Wildrose - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 02:44 PM EST (#179177) #
It must be January with all this focus on batting order. Truth be told on a balanced team research shows very little difference exists as to which batting order you use , as long as you have the best players out there. Still in a tight division you need any edge you can get, and it is a fascinating topic that I even enjoy. If a guy had the time he could feed ESPN's, 3 year splits into this formula, and come up with the "best" answer.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 02:44 PM EST (#179178) #
Notwithstanding the optimistic talk about rebound seasons and last year's injuries, the fact remains that this lineup is simply weak against righthanders and the team will face an overwhelming predominance of righthanded starting.

Last year, Toronto had the highest team OPS vs. lefthanded pitching in the league. It also had the fewest number of at bats vs. lefties of any AL team, 1284 vs. 4252 at bats vs. righties. Many of these, were of course relief lefties who came in to face a lefthanded batter, so the number of at bats vs. lefty starters is even fewer.

Toronto's OPS vs. righthanded pitchers was the second lowest in the AL. That's not a result of inordinate injuries or slumps, it's a result of a lineup overwhelmingly tilted to one side. Only KC had a lower OPS vs righthanded pitching than Toronto.

Even if Toronto moves up from 13th to 9th against righthanders, an unlikely climb, the offense is going to greatly limit the team again.
Nick Holmes - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 02:49 PM EST (#179179) #
http://tinyurl.com/2vn2px

Hey HH, I'm not getting anywhere with that url.
HollywoodHartman - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 03:35 PM EST (#179180) #
Well I tried learning how to shorten my URLs, but alas it didn't work. Anywho here is the link

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015

Also an incredibly cool article from BP.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7063

CaramonLS - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 03:57 PM EST (#179181) #

batting Wells 7th or 8th is a ridiculous proposition...something akin to Torre batting A-Rod 8th in the playoffs a couple of years ago.
Like it or not, Wells is our franchise player... not because we're paying him $126 mil for the next 7 years but because he's a legitimate number 3 hitter and his Gold Glove capabilities are something you build teams around. Don't go out there and insult him by putting him in the 7th spot. Look at his career(multiple Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger), he's earned the number 3 spot.

For radical strategic reasons, I would bat him number 2 but the world is not ready for such innovation(btw, Swisher batted in the 2 spot alot the past couple of years).

Wells simply doesn't have the numbers to bat higher than 7th for now vs RHP.

Wells hit .226/.280/.387 vs. RHP, which was the worst of any starter other than Jmac vs. them.  Career = .269/.315/.462.  Those numbers don't scream number 3/4 hitter, in fact, they scream to keep him as far away from that spot as you can imagine.  He hasn't earned the spot I'm afraid.  Vs. Lefties, sure, but not vs. RHP.  There comes a time where you need to choose:  Sooth someone's ego or win.  It appears you've chosen the former.  Batting someone #2 with such a poor OBP is an even worse Idea. 

timpinder - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 04:08 PM EST (#179182) #

The lineup is much improved against RHP.  The following is a possible lineup with my estimate of the more likely of career or 2007 splits versus righties.  The additions of Eckstein and Rolen, a strict platoon with Stairs facing righties instead of Johnson, and Overbay's return to form help make the Jays' lineup at least average against RHP.

Lineup vs. RHP:
                                                      Position    Bats        AVG        OBP        OPS

1. Eckstein               SS             R              .288         .350         .706

2. Overbay               1B            L              .283         .376         .831

3. Rios                     RF            R              .283         .334         .802 (2007)

4. Stairs                    LF            L              .273         .365         .867

5. Thomas                DH           R              .259         .360         .796 (2007)

6. Rolen                   3B            R              .284         .361         .865

7. Wells                   CF            R              .269         .315         .777

8. Hill                      2B            R              .281         .332         .729
9. Zaun                    C              S              .246         .338         .726

 

 

 

CaramonLS - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 04:14 PM EST (#179183) #
Great lineup timpinder.
ANationalAcrobat - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 04:15 PM EST (#179184) #
I really hope our hitter with the worst OPS against righties isn't the one getting the most at bats. That would be a disaster.
Rickster - Sunday, January 20 2008 @ 04:19 PM EST (#179185) #

There comes a time where you need to choose:  Sooth someone's ego or win. 

FWIW, there's no evidence that VW needs his ego soothed. As far as we know he'd be happy to hit anywhere. For my part, I just hope he can post a 300+ OBP this year to go along with his average-ish defence. That's worth about $17M, right?

vw_fan17 - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 12:39 AM EST (#179191) #
I really hope our hitter with the worst OPS against righties isn't the one getting the most at bats. That would be a disaster.

ANA: The one thing to keep in mind is the SHAPE of Eckstein's OPS. He's reasonably high on OBP, which means he's a singles hitter and/or walks. Not a lot of power. As long as his OBP is nearly as good as the guys who also have power against RHP, you want Eckstein leading off, getting on base, so the really good hitters can drive him home with a double, etc..

VW
Mike Green - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 10:53 AM EST (#179201) #
Wells' defence was, according to most measures, a little off in 2007.  If you take 3 year averages, the Fielding Bible as him at +6/year.  You'd probably want to deduct at least 1 or 2 for his age, and maybe more, according to taste. 
ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 12:40 PM EST (#179207) #
The Gibbons comment about Wells and Rios hitting back-to-back was before Rolens was acquired, if my memory is correct.

I think Rolen is either going to be our best hitter and hit #3 or else he'll be one of our worst and hit in that 7/8/9 spot, depending on who is in the rest of the lineup.  2006 Rolen was .310/.381/.540 versus RHP - that's top of the order stuff (suprisingly .259/.335/.462 against LHP).   Career-wise, his splits are more usual .865 against RHP and .922 against LHP.  Either way, if he's on, I see him as a top-of-the-order person and his speed difference versus Glaus makes me think Gibbons won't mind breaking up the Rios/Wells combo.

However, last year Rolen was .287/.341/.429 against RHP and .204/.306/.311 against lefties. Those numbers put him firmly in the bottom of the order.  Given his career, especially since the injury, I don't think that you can expect Rolen to have a middle-ish year (i.e. 110 OPS+ and hitting 6th or so).  He'll either be healthy and in the groove, hitting 120+ OPS+ and getting the #3 spot or else he'll be injured, hit weakly and be sup 90 OPS+.

Seamus - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 03:55 PM EST (#179225) #
sorry, a little off topic but on ESPN.com there is a chat wrap with Jerry Crasnick up:

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18881

It seems like you don't need to be an insider to read..

Anyway, it's an interesting read - Crasnick discusses what he feels is the best division in baseball and settles on the AL East.

I posted the link because he references Toronto quite often, saying that he feels Toronto has enough talent to win the AL East - with Burnett and Rolen being huge factors in that.

He seems pretty high on the team..

Shaker - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 03:56 PM EST (#179226) #
Wildrose, I hit that optimal batting order website and plugged in my version of a slightly adjusted 3 year splits vs RHP to determine our best lineup.  (Our lineup vs LHP is pretty much in order of reputation and needs no real help anyway.)

Here are projections (in my preferred order) vs RHP, leaning heavily on their 3 year splits but with some very minor adjustments for age/injury. (Young guys probably do better than below and old guys worse.  Rios' stats are last 2 years, Rolen (a crapshoot to project) are "3 of the last 4" years):
Player   OBA    SLG
Eck        .361    .382
Stairs    .357    .484
Rios      .344    .501
O'bay     .370    .464
Hurt       .356    .493
Rolen     .367    .516
VW         .306    .446
Hill         .332    .397
Zaun      .339    .398

This is the preferred lineup according to the Baseball Musings website:
1. O'Bay
2. Rolen
3. Hill
4. Rios
5. Stairs
6. VW
7. Hurt
8. Zaun
9. Eckstein

O'Bay makes no sense in the leadoff spot (either psychologically or sociologically).  I also don't understand why Hurt would bat behind VW at the bottom end of the order.  Although I kind of assume Hill is our breakout candidate in 2008, I am shocked to see him placed in the #3 slot.  The optimiser does, however, make sense in batting Rolen near the top and Stairs closer to lower-mid.

Combining convention, ego, salary, experience, voodoo, etc a reasonable lineup vs RHP might be:
1. Eck or Hill,
2. Rolen,
3. Rios,
4. Overbay,
5. Hurt,
6. Stairs,
7. VW,
8. Hill or Zaun,
9. Zaun or Eck.

I also think  that Wells would be ok with batting 6th or 7th vs RHP as long as he was #3 vs LHP (as he should be).  One of the advantages of batting Eck 9th is that JVac comes in late in the game he would bat 9th and thus rarely.


Seamus - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 04:03 PM EST (#179227) #
well, maybe I shouldn't say 'pretty high' on the team

but he seems to see good potential at least
melondough - Monday, January 21 2008 @ 05:39 PM EST (#179228) #

sorry, a little off topic but on ESPN.com there is a chat wrap with Jerry Crasnick up:

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18881

Thanks Seamus.  That was a pretty uplifting read.  It seems that a lot of fans around baseball have taken note that the Jays have great defense, excellent pitching, and a team with a few breakout candidates after being decimated by injury last year.  I am a bit surprised Jerry made no mention of Marcum or McGowan when asked about the best young pitching in the AL East.  Oh well...can't win 'em all.  Those that need a pick-me-up should take scroll though it.

FranklyScarlet - Thursday, January 24 2008 @ 12:21 PM EST (#179279) #
I know we have talked with Rod Barajas.   The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Orioles were also interested in signing him but that he appears to be headed somewhere else?  Is it to Toronto?

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles123,0,4656820,print.story
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, January 24 2008 @ 12:37 PM EST (#179281) #
I know we have talked with Rod Barajas.   The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Orioles were also interested in signing him but that he appears to be headed somewhere else?  Is it to Toronto?

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles123,0,4656820,print.story


I think there is a better chance of Ernie Whitt leaving the coaching ranks to catch than for Rod Barajas to fill that role on the team.  My guess, and I entirely agree with him if it's true, is that JP is never dealing with Barajas again after last offseason.
Geoff - Thursday, January 24 2008 @ 12:42 PM EST (#179282) #
An agreement for a two-year contract should be in place soon for Barajas, just in time for his replacement agent to back out of the agreement in the hopes of greater riches elsewhere.

His old agent added, "It's a good fit for both Rod and the Blue Jays. J.P. said he was looking for a No. 1 catcher who could play 120 games a season and that was exactly what Rod was looking for." Story

Hopefully this time, after losing out on Barajas, J.P. won't be inspired to pick up Royce Clayton. huh?

Anyone know whether Barajas is using Lozano or Clifton & Bross these days?
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