The most important stat, without a doubt, is the fact Marcum is leading the majors in H/9 (hits allowed per nine innings). And he's been in the top 5 for the last month. He's at 4.76, followed by Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempter, Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez. That's a ridiculous number.

Marcum's line drive is way down at under 15%, his pop-up rate is good and his HR/fly rate of 9% is down and slightly below league average.  To restate the obvious, he has been pitching very, very well.

FIP will normally understate the value of a pitcher like Marcum (and overstate the value of a Burnett c.2005).  Marcum fields his position exceptionally well and holds runners very well.  This means that his hit rate (or more particularly opposition BABIP) will be almost always lower than expected, and his ERA will be lower than expected from his components because he leaves a few more runners on. 

His only issue, and it is a big one, is durability. 

game 39- WPA heroes Burnett (3), Barajas (3)             WPA let downs Overbay (9), Wilkerson (2), Hill (12), Scutaro (4)

game 40- WPA heroes Marcum (6)*3, Stewart (3), Ryan (7), Hill (7)         WPA let downs Rios (11), Mench (2), Overbay (10), Velandia

This is Marcum's third game with over .300 WPA.

Another big plus for Marcum is the Jays defense.  With Rios/Wells/whoever we have a very, very good outfield (a bit weaker now) so for a fly ball guy that is a great thing.  The infield isn't shabby either.

Right now the Jays are 6th in defensive efficiency in the majors, and given they were #1last year and 8th both of the 2 years before it isn't a fluke.  JP obviously believes strongly in pitching/defense and the Jays are showing that.  I suspect 2004 when the Jays came in 17th for de JP decided it was needed (25th in '03, 20th in '02).

Now, if we could just get a bit of offense from the slots where defense tends to be ignored (LF/DH) I think we may have something.

Jays offensive stats for LF: 222-307-292 from Stewart/Stairs/Lind mainly but 5 others have played there (ugh).  DH: 209-304-318 from Stairs/Thomas/Stewart plus 4 others and McDonald (4 times in the DH slot but no plate appearances).  

As a left fielder who plays regularly in MLB (14 of them) the worst stats belong to Delmon Young in Minnesota: 271-315-307 - better in all 3 categories than the Jays ugly group.  Eric Byrnes in Arizona is also pretty bad at 231-295-385 but outside of a 12 point loss in OBP he wins out easily via his 93 point Slg advantage.  The worse figures for the 3 categories by regulars in LF are 209 average (Adam Dunn), 295 OBP (Byrnes), 307 Slg (Young).  IE: our LF's as a group have hit about as poorly as the worst regulars in the majors for each of the 3 stats (222 vs 209 average, 307 vs 295 OBP, 292 vs 307 Slg, 599 OPS vs 602 OPS).  Now THAT is bad.

I'd say JP has a clear mandate now - you want to improve this team find a 1/2 decent LF/DH.  Stairs is 1/2 of the solution in one of those slots, lets hope Mench is the other 1/2.  Wilkerson might be part of the LF solution but I just don't see Stewart being part of it anymore and our AAA team has no real solutions either.

Note: The stats I listed were just while they are in LF, not counting PH/DH/RF/1B/etc. AB's.

Marcum had one start with an infield of Rolen, McDonald, Hill and Overbay.  With Marcum's defensive ability, that infield will sure surpress the run value of a ground ball. 

We had some discussions about pitch counts and effectiveness last week.  This is a nice summary of average starting pitcher performance by pitch count by Pizza Cutter. 

It is the rare pitcher who is effective over more than a year or two from pitches 76-100.  Roy Halladay is one. 

i always knew that the sneak would be a solid mlb pitcher, but this is ridiculous. 

Today is the first day I've noticed the Jays Pythag record below .500 (19-21) at baseball-reference.

However, strangely enough, it depends on which page you view.  It is either 19-21 or 20-20.  Probably depends on whether they use the power of 2 or 1.8 (or whatever that other number is).

Either way, it's getting harder and harder to be credible and say the Jays have been the victim of bad luck.  Even the 1-run record thing doesn't hold much weight now.  With a pythag of 19-21, you'd expect the Jays to be 6-7 in one-run games, which isn't a huge boost versus 4-9.

Yeah, I noticed the Jays falling to more runs allowed than scored too. 

As I mention above the killer is that two key offensive positions have been offensive in a different way this year, kind of like a skunk is offensive. 

As to Lind - his 5 games since going back he has gone 4 for 19 with a double, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1 run scored, and 1 RBI.  Works out to 211-286-263 - ugh but one good game could change it quickly (a 3-3 would up his average to 318).  Just 3 guys in AAA have an OPS above 800 - Inglett (here already), Lind, and Velandia (here already).  Good ol' Russ Adams has come back to earth and is now at 233-336-367  Makes one wonder if the Jays real need is a hitting coach in the minors who can figure out what happened to these guys.  Adams and Thigpen (179-203-241 over 112 AB's) didn't look this bad a couple years ago and figuring out what happened would be useful. 

I'd say Scott Campbell is close to being given a shot in LF even though he is a second baseman in AA as his 354-407-478 after going 279-390-397 in A ball last year is looking darn tempting.  Of course, that would be a panic move that should be avoided if at all possible.  Hopefully Mench and/or Wilkerson does the job in LF/DH and Wells gets back soon.

Just noticed an article via BBTF - http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/lifestyle-baseball-india.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Anyone else think it would make a ton of sense for the Jays to put a training camp for teenagers somewhere in India?  You have a population that is about 4 times the US population, many of whom play cricket which is similar to baseball, and who are not being chased after by MLB scouts at the moment.  I've thought for years it would provide a source that could be amazing for the team that exploits it first.  Think about it, a town of 100k in the Dominican provided a stack of ML'ers to the Jays in the 80's - what if India could do the same in the 2010's? I'd guess it would cost less than $1 million a year, or 1% of the ML payroll budget, to set up a really good camp and to track down some top talent.  If just one every 5-10 years pans out you would be easily ahead of the game.  In India they do speak English as a first language quite often (it is one of many official languages there) thus one less problem to deal with vs players from the Dominican.  I just don't see the downside or high risk that this would entail.  Given the size of India all 30 teams could easily have camps in different areas and never scout the same kid so no worries if someone else is there already.

C'mon JP - become a leader and help the Jays become #1 in India for the 2010's.

Absolutely, John. 

The sub-continent is a logical place for the Jays to be first to.  Rohinton Mistry can write the book about the culture clash as baseball is brought to India by culturally unaware North Americans; Deepa Mehta can film it. If you've ever seen the Coca-Cola Kid, you'd get the idea.

I'm with Mike Green, Marcum proved last year that he could be among the league's best(his 3.31 ERA as of Aug 15th)... I just hope that he doesn't have a meltdown like last September... I wasn't pleased about the high pitch count last night....

but all in all, the guy can pitch!

I wish Burnett would take a tip from this guy... really the only thing keeping Burnett from being a perennial Cy Young candidate is his inability to change speeds on his fastball and to actually throw a changeup!
If he could do that combined with that hammer-curve(when it's on , of course), he's pretty much Johan Santana(i.e. superplus fastball & change)!

Beyond making logical sense for the Jays, it would be a logical move for MLB in terms of marketing.  That's quite a large market.  The linked article mentions the role of Yao Ming in creating a fan base for the NBA in China.  Although, I am sure there will be more than a few complaints about American companies outsourcing jobs to India.

I think much of Marcum's poor September was due to his balky knee.  He had been having problems with it since August and had surgery in the offseason to repair his meniscus.  As a control pitcher, the pushoff leg is pretty important to his repeatable delivery. 

Now that he's healthy, lookout.  The command he's shown doesn't give me any reason to think he won't keep up most of what he is doing.  Quite impressive. 

Yesterday's games were somewhat typical of the last few weeks.  How many diving plays did the Indians make?  Sure, you can credit the Indians for good defense, but it seems the Jays have run into good defense all year long.  The ninth inning with Rios/Mench were case in point.  Rough luck as of late.  It'll change. 

It's hard to tell, obviously, but Marcum looks to me a fair bit thicker in the lower body.  I suppose that is the result of aggressive rehab after the knee surgery.  There may be performance benefits from that.

Here's a poser to challenge even the most devout of the Marcum Love Affair crowd ...

Roy Halladay is 31 and has 114 career wins. Shaun Marcum is 26 and has 19 wins. From this day forward only, who will win more big league games?

(Example: if Doc ends up at 200 wins, Marcum would need only 87 career wins to "beat" him. Who's willing to project?)

FWIW, the average of all Halladay's retired BBRef comps had 53 wins left in them, while the average of Marcum's retired BBRef comps had only 23 wins left in them.  I am pretty sure that Marcum will beat the 23 win average, and I expect that Doc will too.  It is a good lesson though in the unreliability of pitchers.  The real question in Marcum's case is durability.  In Halladay's case, it is weathering the loss of mph. 

Tomorrow, by the way, is Doc's birthday. 

It is a good lesson though in the unreliability of pitchers.

The BBRef comps need to be improved to be anything more than just a source of entertainment.  1 player of the top 10 comps had a career ERA+ greater than Marcum's career 104 (coming into this year) - 114 by Chad Ogea.   The average ERA+ of all 10 pitchers by their age 26 year was 95.  Considering that 100 is league average, you're comparing a pitcher who is 4% better than average with 10 who, as a group, are 5% below average.

Similarly with Halladay - you have his career ERA+ of 128 being compared with 10 pitchers who average 114 ERA+ to that point.

Also, and just a side note, the average of all Halladay comps should be 48 wins - Morris is retired now, although BBRef doesn't show it yet.

One more item.  The BBRef comps severely undersell Marcum because of their poor K/IP ratios.  I looked for a better one, and the best I could come up was Dice-K.  I wonder who will have more wins from this day forth- Marcum or Dice-K?  The hype would suggest that it would be obviously Dice-K, but...

1)  I've posted several times about Marcum's upside, and even traded McGowan for Marcum last year in my fantasy league :)    I'm certain he'll win at least 1 Gold Glove in his career, and his ability to control runners separates him from some other 'control' pitchers like Towers.  Like Halladay, I also believe he pitches intentionally at less than 100% velocity, acknowledging control, movement, consistent mechanics and speed changes are what's going to make him successful.  Burnett unfortunately just does not have that kind of control IMO and is going to end up a sometimes spectacular .500 pitcher for any team (win big, lose big).

2)  There are a number of teams struggling offensively, and my unresearched theory is that :

          a) the crop of current young emerging pitchers is the best we've seen in at least 20 years.  Seems like every team as several top prospects in addition to already established good young pitchers.  Even Tampa!   
          b) far fewer hitters on roids... maybe the pendulum is swinging back to the pitchers, with fewer homers and bulked up players.  I think less pitchers were benefiting than hitters from performance enhancing supplements (except Roger, he was completely clean, as he was too busy dating it seems).

 

Roy Halladay is 31 and has 114 career wins. Shaun Marcum is 26 and has 19 wins. From this day forward only, who will win more big league games?

Whoever pitches longest for another team (that can score runs)..

Marcum has really picked it up this year, his consistency, stamina and knowledge of the game are all reasons why he is taking it to the next level.  What really plagued him last year was the one big "mistake"... the 3 run Homer or something along those lines - as well as tiring at the end of the year.  This year he has avoided all that to this point in time.

Part of the reason for Marcum's success the last 3 games is his curveball.  He is mixing it into the rotation of his pitches and really keeping the hitters off balance for the first time all year. 

We are witnessing the evolution of Marcum now.  He'll lead the Jay's Staff in ERA this year, but not in wins (lower IP than Halladay and poor Jays offense).

Beyond making logical sense for the Jays, it would be a logical move for MLB in terms of marketing.  That's quite a large market.  The linked article mentions the role of Yao Ming in creating a fan base for the NBA in China.  Although, I am sure there will be more than a few complaints about American companies outsourcing jobs to India.

From what I understand, Basketball was fairly popular in China before Yao, whereas baseball would be starting from square zero in India.

Baseball wouldn't exactly be starting from zero. It might compare to teaching rugby players American football, though perhaps a bit more complicated.

I think it's a fantastic idea, especially with the connection many Canadians have towards their South Asian roots, this could be something that if successful, could benefit Toronto more than any other North American baseball market. Teaching cricket swings to become baseball swings isn't that difficult if you start the baseball camps at a young age.

Of course, like many developing countries, the idea of organizing baseball has severe cost constraints. Not that it stopped the Dominican.

One more item.  The BBRef comps severely undersell Marcum because of their poor K/IP ratios.  I looked for a better one, and the best I could come up was Dice-K.  I wonder who will have more wins from this day forth- Marcum or Dice-K?  The hype would suggest that it would be obviously Dice-K, but...

Considering the offenses they are likely to be support from, I think the smart money has to go to Dice-K... and really, I hate to ever say such a thing!

Well, if you want to talk about 6'0 RH pitchers with unimpressive fastballs and killer changeups who field their positions like an extra infielder, the greatest of them all is still winning games in San Diego. Here's a link to a profile on Maddux from the SI Vault.

Marcum throws a little harder than Maddux does now, but definitely not as hard as Maddux threw in his prime. Marcum's control is very good; the Mad Dog's control was historically good, of course. But Marcum's in the same general mold.

Some fun quotes from the Master. Some thoughts about his current predicament:

I think I have to pitch better now than 10 years ago. I have to locate better because my stuff is not as good. It's still good enough to win, but not good enough to make mistakes. I don't throw hard enough for the ball to break as much as it used to.

And his four rules of pitching. Every young pitcher should commit them to heart, especially the third one:

1) Make the balls look like strikes and the strikes look like balls.

2) Movement and location trump velocity every time.

3) When you're in trouble, think softer. Don't throw harder; locate better.

4) Have fun.

I don't think India or Pakistan are going to be baseball hotbeds for the foreseeable future.

The cricket swing is completely different from a baseball swing. Cricket bowlers usually aim to bounce the ball in front of the wicket, so the batsmen's approach is usually to defend the wicket with a somewhat vertical swing. Also, because the batsman can be productive using all 360 degrees of the field (instead of 90 degrees as in baseball), they must be adept at slicing the ball off the edge of the bat.

The bowlers have to throw with a more or less stiff elbow, and many are spin specialists. Thus the throwing motion is very different.

I don't think you'll be able to get the best young athletes from these countries interested in baseball, for the same reason that it will be next to impossible to get Dominican and Cuban kids interested in becoming cricket players: cricket is a religion in India and Pakistan.

Marcum throws a little harder than Maddux does now, but definitely not as hard as Maddux threw in his prime.

Disagreement. Maddux in his prime ('93-'96ish) threw his fastball generally in the 89-92 range. It had incredible late movement and he could spot in anywhere. But Marcum throws about this hard.

While we're comparing the Jays' young arms to established pitchers, I think Jesse Litsch has more than a little Joe Blanton in him. Though they're very different pitchers, they both have solid K/BB ratios, and Litsch's delivery reminds me a bit of Blanton's. Once John Gibbons lets Litsch throw more than 85 pitches a start, Litsch could start to resemble Blanton from an inning-eating standpoint as well.

But Marcum throws about this hard [89-92].

I've never seen him do it. I can't remember ever seeing him hit 90 on the Rogers gun. Whenever I see him, his FB is 84-86. I don't think he throws as hard as Towers.

FWIW this link http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/05/08/jays-climb-out-of-basement-media-swoons/#comments shows Marcum topping 90 MPH a number of times in his start against the Red Sox.

How accurate is the pitch f/x radar gun?

Robert,

Cricket is a religion in Jamaica, and yet some of its best athletes (Chili Davis, Devon White) were educated in the States and become ballplayers. 

In India in particular, there is a growing young middle class that is literate, mobile and international and not necessarily tied to colonial traditions.  Baseball and basketball both have a chance to develop a following at some point reasonably soon, among this group. 

I've never seen him do it. I can't remember ever seeing him hit 90 on the Rogers gun. Whenever I see him, his FB is 84-86. I don't think he throws as hard as Towers.

I've never seen a FB as low as 84 from him.  Every game I've watched his FB ranges between 88-91, his cutter in the 84-86 area, the change right around 82, and the curve around 75.

The one thing to remember about Maddux is that he did have a great fastball with plenty of movement.  Much better than Marcum's.

Will India become a hotbed like the Dominican?  No.  But it doesn't have to.  India has a population of over a billion people.  You don't have to get every last kid addicted ala the Dominican in order to get results. 

As to differences between cricket and baseball - well, yeah.  However, when looking for new sources of players you start with athletes, then athletes who are building similar muscles and skills.  In Europe baseball scouting would not get too far unless you hit areas where hockey is big (hand eye coordination, use of a stick, ability to catch a puck) as soccer and basketball skills are not that similar to baseball skills (kicking a ball, using balls that are many times bigger than a baseball, no throwing of objects small enough to compare to a baseball, no use of sticks).  Much like how we've seen areas like Brazil not produce many ballplayers despite being close physically to areas that are baseball hotbeds.  Basically a cricket player, at a young age, could easily understand and adapt to baseball.  A soccer player you'd be starting from scratch with. 

Now, many would argue it is a waste of time going there as it could easily take years to get to the point of getting ML players.  However, I doubt it would.  Baseball players from Canada have reached the majors with minimal experience - Rob Ducey is a good example as he didn't play baseball until his late teens - thus it can be done.  The risk - reward balance is just so strong that I can't see why teams haven't done this yet.  A big plus for the Jays is the reputation of Canada vs the USA in India too.  I've worked with many from India and Pakistan and they have a strong dislike for the States and a strong like for Canada due to various policies and practices (racism in the States is far higher than in Canada when it comes to people from these areas, even pre-9/11).  Mix in the potential to make millions, or at least to get to Canada, and you've got a strong incentive that gives the Jays an edge over cricket and other MLB teams.

I'd far prefer the Jays to risk $1-2 million a year on this than spending it on the next David Eckstein or on a middle reliever or backup outfielder.  Far higher odds of getting something producing at a $10+ million level for years than you ever will from those guys (each rookie being paid the ML minimum for up to 3 years plus lower than free agent prices for 3 more while guys like Eck will cost the full amount after one year if by some miracle he learned to hit at a 280-350-450 pace).

John,

You have some interesting points - I don't know enough about it to agree one way or the other. I'd just like to add a couple of points to add to what you've already said:

• The complementary skill sets is an important point.  Some of the best pitchers in baseball don't start full-time pitching until they're drafted (Dave Stieb as one example).  There would be reason to think there are enough transferable skills in cricket that something could happen.  Also, you don't need the best cricket players necessarily, some of the not-quite-good-enough for cricket may find greater success in baseball.
  
• I think your costing estimate is quite low.  $1-2 million hardly gets anything done nowadays, let alone set up shop in a foreign country.  Ajax spends about $1 million pounds just in capital costs to set up each of their football (soccer) centres in Africa.  That doesn't include the on-going operational / maintenance costs, and is also for a sport that has existing popularity and some infrastructure.  I'd think you'd be looking in the 8 figure range, not 7.

    I'm skeptical about India.   Over here in China, the same kinds of optimistic comments were made about developing baseball in the world's most populous country.  For more than five years now, MLB has been heavily involved in China, sending over coaches and holding training clinics and even supporting a professional league.  The logic is:  the Chinese are good at hand-eye coordination (look at ping-pong), they've proven to be good at baseball in Taiwan, they're similar in athletic ability to the Japanese and Koreans, and they love other American sports such as the NBA.  So baseball is supposed to be a natural in China.  Unfortunately the reality is that the Chinese are still indifferent to the game (notwithstanding a large attendance at the MLB exhibition games in Beijing this spring, where the tickets were mostly given away and those who purchased tickets were mostly expats).  The professional league has tiny attendance, and scouts say the best Chinese players are still at the level of the low minor leagues.   It will be another 10 or 15 years before a Chinese player is good enough for the majors.  And China is decades ahead of India in terms of baseball infrastructure.
     Another quick point:  look at India's almost total absence from the Olympic medal tables.  Aside from cricket, India has not shown much aptitude for any other team or individual sports.  (Perhaps I've missed a sport or two.  Squash?)  I just don't see India as a likely source of baseball players in the foreseeable future.

My argument can be boiled down to these two points:

1) You are not going to take a mature cricket player and turn him into a major league baseball player.

2) You are not going to get the best young athletes in the country interested in baseball, at least not many of them. And if you can't get the best athletes, the best you'll do is produce a bunch of low A ball quality players.

India is pretty good at field hockey.

There's other factors as well though, not just population.

Infrastructure and attitudes towards athletics are also important.  Nutrition, space for kids to grow, relatively fresh air, seem conducive to producing athletes. 

Compared to Japan/Korea/Taiwan, China has been behind in all of these areas.  That being said, I think it will start producing baseball players faster than you might think.

India/Pakistan are definitely worth the investment as well, even if it takes the equivalent of a third of A-Rod's salary! 

Like China, they are emerging economic powers, and as the middle classes grow in each, the pool of decently-fed kids with opportunities to play sports (vs starting work early or joining the army) increases dramatically.