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It's an off-day for the Blue Jays, who open a homestand against the Angels tomorrow.

Yesterday they scored all six of their runs after there were two outs in the inning. At the beginning of the trip, they couldn't have scored six runs if you gave them six outs every inning. In the first 36 innings of this road trip, they scored exactly one run. After that kind of start, coming home with a 6-4 mark for the trip ain't bad. They won three games by a single run, they won twice in extra innings.

David Eckstein should be back for the finale against the Angels, at which point Hector Luna will go back to Syracuse. Joe Inglett will hang around at least until John McDonald is ready. It's safe to say that neither Kevin Mench nor Brad Wilkerson, who are essentially competing for Frank Thomas' old roster spot, has exactly staked a claim for the job. Wilkerson has the advantage of being left-handed on a righty-heavy team and having more defensive usefulness. Sooner or later, the team will find someone who can crack the Mendoza Line. The quartet of Thomas, Lind, Wilkerson, and Mench has collectively hit .152 in 131 at bats, with Mench's .176 leading the way. And only Thomas has managed even one extra base hit.

On Friday, I took a quick peek at five teams who thought they were going to be contenders this season. I thought today I'd take a similar look at a few teams doing much better than some of us (well, me!) anticipated. How did this happen?

Am I the only one who looks at the Tampa Bay Rays and is reminded of the Ottawa Senators? If you're bad enough for long enough, sooner or later all those extremely high draft picks are going to kick in. Even if you completely blow one of them on Josh Hamilton or Alexandre Daigle. The Rays have also finally got some infielders who can make some plays and get some outs, which has helped their young pitchers a great deal.

Oakland has done it with pitching All of the pitchers have been solid to good, with the exception of closer Huston Street who really hasn't been bad. Two outings account for most of the damage, and only one of them actually cost the team anything. The guys getting the ball from the starters to Street have been amazing - Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine have combined to work 37 IP and have allowed just 3 runs. The offense sometimes seems to consist entirely of drawing walks - two of their regulars, Cust and Hannahan, actually have more walks than hits. They've needed them, because they don't hit much for either power or average.

The White Sox went into the season saying bravely that their aging hitters would bounce back and post career seasons like they did several years ago. I mocked them. And that's not why they're in first place. Jermaine Dye is having a good year, and Pierzynski is having the best year of his life. But the big news in Chicago regards three players who appear to have taken a big step forward: Carlos Quentin, John Danks, and Gavin (and His Tools) Floyd. The work of Danks and Floyd, along with what looks like Jose Contreras recovering his Forme of Olden Dayes, has more than made up for the struggles of Mark Buehrle. I still can't see them winning more than 85 games, but that's about 18 more than I thought they'd win two months ago.

In Florida, several good young players are playing as if they were actually great young players. It's not all that surprising that Hanley Ramirez would be one of them, but Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham have never been this good. I don't expect them to keep being this good, and the pitching doesn't look like much. But this season is not going to be the disaster many had anticipated.

The Pirates don't have any pitching either, but Jason Bay seems to have resumed being Jason Bay. Ryan Doumit and Nate McLouth look like the best thing to happen to the Bucs in many a moon. Alas, it's unlikely that either of them are really this good, of course, and neither is all that young. But it's been so long since the Pirates had anything to feel good about it that it seems churlish to actually point that out.

They say it's a long, long season and nowhere has that been more true than in Houston. Miguel Tejada was 31 years old when this season started, and next week he turns 34. Happily, for the Astros, he's aging quite well. The big story here of course is Lance Berkmann, who's hitting .399 and slugging better than .800. The disturbing news is Roy Oswalt scuffling along with an of 5.43 - still, Oswalt K/BB numbers look much the same as always. He's giving up a few more hits than usual, but not a lot - the problem has for him has been the Big Fly. He's already given up as many homers as he allowed all last season (in 212 IP) and should establish a new career high for homers allowed before the end of June. Strange.
19 May 2008: Developments | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ayjackson - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#185530) #

I wonder how Mets fans feel about that Milledge for Church and Schneider trade now.  They sure panned it in the offseason.

Chuck - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#185531) #

Roy Oswalt ... the problem has for him has been the Big Fly

Joining Oswalt (14 HR in 63 IP), Johan Santana's been a regular fly boy as well having given up 11 in 60 innings. Perhaps last year's 33 in 219 was a sign of things to come?

What's odd is how Santana's homeruns break down: he has given up 6 in 18 IP in Shea Stadium, not an especially favourable homerun park.

Oswalt's teammate, Oscar Villarreal, has been the poster boy for gopheritis. If this Oscar is grouchy, his 10 HR in 22 IP are probably the cause. There have been homerun derby pitchers with better ratios than that.

ayjackson - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#185532) #

Joining Oswalt (14 HR in 63 IP), Johan Santana's been a regular fly boy as well having given up 11 in 60 innings. Perhaps last year's 33 in 219 was a sign of things to come?

In my DMB sim league this year (based on '07 stats), Santana gave up 51 homeruns.  Maybe DMB saw something coming nobody else did?  The sim league is a bit platoon heavy.

Chuck - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#185535) #

In my DMB sim league this year (based on '07 stats), Santana gave up 51 homeruns.  Maybe DMB saw something coming nobody else did?  The sim league is a bit platoon heavy.

The platoon-heaviness should not have been an issue. Santana has actually fared slightly worse vs LHB over his career (658/643 OPS vs LHB/RHB). And he has given up homeruns at a slightly higher rate against lefties as well (1 in 34 AB/1 in 36 AB vs LHB/RHB).

PeteMoss - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#185536) #
For the Rays - I wouldn't call Josh Hamilton a complete whiff, he was obviously extremely talented as evidence by the fact that he was away from baseball for so long to deal with his drug issues and now in his 2nd year back is already one of the best hitters in the AL.  He just had his demons get to him and the Rays were the unfortunate team paying him when he went down.  Now Devon Brazelton on the other hand, that was a huge bust.
Pistol - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#185537) #
For the Rays - I wouldn't call Josh Hamilton a complete whiff

Hamilton turned out fine, but the Rays only have a small amount of cash to show for it, which I think was the point.

I wonder what % chance they thought Hamilton would be taken in the Rule 5.
Chuck - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#185538) #
Which has been the more unlikely, Josh Hamilton's resurrection or Rick Ankiel's transmogrification into a highly competent non-pitcher?
owen - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#185542) #
Which has been the more unlikely, Josh Hamilton's resurrection or Rick Ankiel's transmogrification into a highly competent non-pitcher?

I have to think that Ankiel's career path has been the more unlikely.  I will always reserve hope that redemption is possible for people like Hamilton, no matter how hard they fall.  And we always knew he had the talent in him.  But we definitely did not know that Ankiel had this talent in him.  How likely is it for any given person to make the major leagues?  Without putting a number on it, the answer is something along the lines of "very, very, extremely unlikely."  But Ankiel has basically made it to the majors twice.  I don't think that what Ankiel has done is all that different from what Deion Sanders and Bo Jackson did, though Prime-Time and Bo-Knows both played each sport at a higher level than Ankiel, at least thus far.

Still, I do not want to downplay the difficulty that must have been involved in Hamilton's climb back from where he was - not just to get his life back on track, but also to resume his baseball career at this level.  But if you had asked me if Hamilton could've made it back I would have said "if he is determined, if he has people who care for him, if he is lucky, he can do this."  If asked the same question about Ankiel I would've said "he is embarrassing himself; you only get one major league career."
Chuck - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#185544) #

I agree with you Owen. I was totally convinced that Ankiel was allowed to "play at" being an outfielder in the Cardinals minor league system only because the organization felt so badly for him. I never, never imagined he'd get a single major league at-bat, let alone do what he's doing now.

I think that too many people mistake "good hitter for a pitcher" with "good hitter (for a major leaguer)". It makes me wonder how many other pitchers not named Ruth or Ankiel could have forged a major league career as a non-pitcher. Micah Owings would be one who would appear to have a Plan B in his hip pocket.

As for Hamilton, he could have failed, even absent his drug use, because so many seemingly "can't miss" prospects simply do miss. And then he could have failed solely due to being out of baseball from ages 22 to 24, presumably crucial years in a player's development. And then slap a drug addiction on top of all that? He's living the unlikeliest of Hollywood scripts. It's absurd that he has to suffer verbal taunts in road parks for something he overcame.

scottt - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#185561) #
I think D-Train would have had a shot.

A tons of pitchers were good hitters in high schools. Marcum was a decent hitter in college. I'm sure he's not the only one. I presume NL pitchers don't spend that much time working on their hitting and that those who hit well are "natural" hitters.

If I remember correctly, the Rays have (had?) a third baseman converted reliever somewhere in their system.
uglyone - Monday, May 19 2008 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#185564) #

on the flipside, I'm still convinced that Johnny O could have made MLB as a pitcher, even if just as a LOOGY.

6'5" lefty, college all-american, excellent demeanour for a pitcher....I think he could have done it.

robertdudek - Wednesday, May 21 2008 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#185640) #
I think Stieb could have made it as an fourth outfielder.
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, May 21 2008 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#185671) #

This team is going to kill me.

VBF - Thursday, May 22 2008 @ 03:29 AM EDT (#185677) #

I guess everyone's feeling a little too depressed to post.

A few things that really bother me:

-Two nights in a row, Marco Scutaro comes up to the plate with runners on, late in the game. There are no better options available on the bench. I know he has a .360 OBP, but he also slugs around .300. Mench probably isn't much of an upgrade, nor is Inglett or Luna. There used to always be a Hinske/Catalanotto around to take over in those situations.

-JP has replaced Frank Thomas with Shannon Stewart/Wilkerson in the lineup and I don't think his defence and versatility will make up for the difference in the bat. The notoriously slow starting Thomas has an .880 OPS since joining Oakland which brings up two things:

a) History indicates that this was going to happen in some capacity.

b) I still like getting rid of Thomas as long as Lind gets his ABs. Not Stewart. When Thomas was released, the argument was that Lind was hitting well and needed to come up. It certainly seems that there was more behind the scenes than that simple explanation. Just my own hunch but I think the truth would make Kenny Williams look good.

-Even if you make the argument that Wilkerson has reverse splits so he can backup Overbay at 1B, there's a real chance that Lind will be a Major league 1st baseman someday. Why not now?

-It certainly looks like the Jays complete lack of a bench has cost them the last two games (apart from the regular offensive slumps). If a player like Hinske or Cat  were able to pinch for Scutaro in the close situations, the last two games might have had different outcomes. This is a fault of the general managing variety.

-Apart from hitting Wilkerson leadoff, which is a problem, I haven't had any real problems with Gibbons handling of anything lately

-If you sign Barry Bonds, this team makes the playoffs. You could even include a 12 million dollar buyout clause if Bonds gets arrested. His 300 ABs would do wonders.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 22 2008 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#185732) #

I guess everyone's feeling a little too depressed to post.

I've got that sense too.  At least the Piazza discussion is getting some love.

I think the Jays knew Thomas' bat would again come around - maybe a slight decline from last year.  They didn't want to wait, though.  They wanted to give ABs to Stairs and they wanted out of the next year of the contract.  Thomas obliged with some pouting and JP had his opportunity to get out of the vesting option.  What the Jays are in dire need of is some LF production so that the move is justified this year.  It shouldn't be hard to find left field production, should it?

19 May 2008: Developments | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.