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The Royals bring their league worst (by a hair) offense to town for a four game set having lost four straight. The Jays will seek to capitalize, and potentially crack the elusive .500 barrier.

On to the Advance Scout!


Now turn around, it's burning down
The city we live in
Should we mumble lies?
Take them by surprise?
Let them have their way with us?

The Royals are basically the type of team that the Jays should and can beat - they can hardly hit a lick (and got no-hit the other day) and have been struggling of late. They are the type of team that good teams can sweep, like the Red Sox, for example. May is always to early for must win games, but if the Jays can go 3-1 they will be over .500. Nifty.

Tonight we're treated to the best pitching matchup in the majors on the night, and the best of the series, as Roy Halladay faces Royals ace Zach Greinke. Of course its the fourth straight Jays game not on television because of the Memorial Cup. Good one, Sportsnet, I'm really glad I pay for each of your four channels. In any event, Zach Greinke has been en fuego, as the kids say, and is carrying the staff along with Brian Bannister. He's averaging just under seven innings a start, with a 2.18 era and a 43/15 K/BB in 62 innings. Somehow he's even managed to go 5-1 despite the Royals terrible offense. Greinke suffered from a well documented Social Anxiety Disorder, but seems to have made a recovery. If it seems like he's been around for a while, well, he has - he's 24 and this is his fifth full season. He has very good command (although I guess only good control), and is able to locate his fastball, which runs into the low 90s, on any part of the plate. He also throws a slider, curve and changeup, and is effective at changing speeds, working from the low 70s to the low 90s. He'll get in trouble if he tries to nibble too much. Alex Rios and Kevin Mench are both 4/10 with no homers off Greinke; only Stewart has more than 10 ab's, and he only has 3 hits. Otherwise, we're lucky were not in the NL, as Greinke is a career .375 hitter with a home run in eight at bats... Greinke's brother, Luke Greinke, was named the best prospect in the Valley Baseball League by BA last year; he plays college ball at Auburn.

Saturday its Luke Hochevar (pronounced ho-CHAY-var) against Jesse Litsch. The Hype hasn't quite matched the results for Hochevar yet, as he has struggled with his command, walking 20 against 26 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. The 2006 number one overall pick (he was also the 1171st and 40th overall pick at various points) received a four year guaranteed contract thanks to Scott Boras, which is why he is in the majors with less than 200 innings under his belt in the Royals minor league system. He was roughed up in his last start against the Red Sox, giving up seven runs, walking six and whiffing two in six innings. Against the Jays earlier this season he allowed only one run as the Jays lost 2-1. He throws a low 90s fastball, a plus curve, a change and a slider; he'll throw the slider most of all the non-fastball pitches. He changes speeds effectively, or at least does when he's pitching well. No Jays have more than 5 at bats against him. He is apparently an awesome Rock Band player. As long as he doesn't pull a Zumaya I guess....

Sunday afternoon features almost-Jay Gil(ga)Meche up against Dustin McGowan. The Meche signing was ridiculed when it happened, and I guess things worked out alright for the Jays, but other than every FA pitcher being overpriced and not worth the risk almost by definition, Meche has been not bad at all. Meche has now pitched 275 innings as a Royal, in which he has a 199/83 K/BB ratio with an era around 4. Of course, he's struggled this year, and sports an ugly 5.58 era. He's picking up though - in his last five starts he's allowed only 13 runs in 31 innings. Perhaps a fiery speech from manager Trey Hillman did the trick. Meche throws both a two and four seam fastball, both have some zip to them. He'll also throw a plus slider at around 88, a couple mph slower than his fastball. He'll throw quite a few curveballs, as well as the odd change. He really doesn't rely on his fastball that heavily. He's more of a flyball pitcher. The Jays have had plenty of success of Meche - Scutaro is 7/20, Hill is 5/15, Barajas 4/12, Overbay 4/14, Stewart 5/14. Alex Rios has had 13 at bats against Meche, in which he has two doubles, two triples and six singles - yes, he's 10/13. Small sample size alert I guess, but maybe Meche should intentionally walk him - he's hitting .769/.786/1.231... with only one RBI. Go figure.

The finale Monday afternoon features Brett Tomko going up against Shaun Marcum. The Royals are Tomko's seventh team. One team he's never played for is Cleveland, despite the fact that his father was the person who chose the name for their basketball team, the Cavaliers. In any event, Tomko has been, well, Tomkoesque this year. He's pitched 50 innings and allowed 32 earned runs, which is not so good. He's managed a pretty good 35-13 K/BB ratio though, roughly in line with his career numbers. Like seemingly every other, Tomko throws a fastball, slider, change and curve, as well as what pitch f/x identifies as a splitter. He can still dial it up there with the fastball, hitting 92/93 on a regular basis. Scott Rolen is 9/22 lifetime off Tomko, Stairs is 5/11, Zaun is 2/10, and no one else has more than 6 at bats against him.

Unfortunately we miss Brian Bannister, perhaps baseball's most statistically inclined pitcher. He got rocked by the Red Sox yesterday, alas. This also means that we're missing a Banny Log, Joe Ponsnanski's awesome tracking of Bannister starts. I would still recommend JoeBlog though, as Posnanski is one of the best sportswriters around, period.

As repeatedly alluded to, the Royals offense is terrible. They hit a ton of singles, and thats about it. As the Red Sox series was starting up they were fifth in the AL in batting average, despite being last in scoring, though I think being no hit might have dropped that a bit... Anyway, they hit for empty averages as there is little in the way of walks or power. The best regular has been Alex Gordon, who's hitting a respectable .295/.378/.451 at third, though there haven't been any Evan Longoria contract type rumblings surrounding Gordon. Gordon might have the most valuable baseball card of any recent player, for somewhat esoteric reasons.

Miguel Olivo has been a fine backup catcher; he's hitting .289 with six home runs and eleven doubles in ninety at bats. Backup John Buck, however, has an OPS of .671 in more at bats. DH Billy Butler has struggled this year, and was benched yesterday after going 0-10 in the first three games of the Red Sox series. He's hitting .267/.341/.352 with only one homer in 165 at bats. Apparently, though, his nickname is 'Big Donkey'. I can't make this stuff up folks. I guess when you are so bad defensively that the club would rather play Ross Gload and his 19 career home runs at first...

Tony Pena Jr. is probably the worst hitter in the major leagues, hitting .162/.185/.208 in 130 at bats. Of course, this means that Pena must do all the little things that don't show up in the stat sheet, like play good defense, right manager Trey Hillman? I call it Ron Gardenhire disease. Mind you, none of this stopped John Gibbons from intentionally walking him earlier in the year. Joe, what are your thoughts on this one?

Jose Guillen has admitted he showed up to Spring Training this year out of shape. This might help explain his .251/.280/.450 line, although he hit even worse than that two years ago. No editorial comments here about Guillen's bust for being linked to performance enhancing drugs and his subsequent fifteen game suspension. The Royals are Guillen's 9th team in 12 years, and has had well documented feuds with Mike Scioscia amongst others, so I guess he isn't winning Mr. Congeniality anytime soon.

Mark Grudzielanek (and yes, I copy/pasted that) was hitting .331 as recently as May 18th, though he's mired in an 0-13 stretch thats dropped his average down to .301. To be fair, the man is almost 38.

Joakim Soria just signed a three year, $8.75 million dollar extension with three club options that could bring the total value of the deal closer to 30 million. Soria has been lights out so far this year, allowing only two runs in 18.1 innings with 22 k's and 4 walks. The Royals bullpen as a whole has been surprisingly good, blowing only three leads all year, out of 38 chances.

A couple of other fun notes: the Royals have only issue two intentional passes so far this year, after allowing 54 freebies last year... they're hitting .284 with RISP....

The Infirmary: Luke Hudson and John Bale, both with shoulder problems.

2008 Motto Rating: New. Blue. Tradition. I'm gonna go with a C+, because its not really stupid on the surface, but if you think about what it actually means, well, new and tradition don't go together so much. Also, it sounds like some sort of wedding superstition.

Breaking News Alert: Joey Gathright can jump over a car. Still not as good as this.... He also might be Aaron Hill's least favourite player ever.

The Chart: The Chart is delayed today it takes hella long to do and (shameless plug alert) and I am about to be on the radio with Alex Obal discussing the Blue Jays on CFRC Kingston at about 4.45 (http://www.cfrc.ca/). Alex has volunteered to whip something up, so that should be along in a while.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2008 stats, except where noted. Special bonus high five to Alex for doing the chart I was too lazy to make.




Advance Scout, Royals, May 23-26 | 28 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2008 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#185814) #
Excellent Scout, Anders.  Alex and Anders on the radio?  This aint the John Kruk broadcast!





tstaddon - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#185840) #
Mike, in the Thursday wrap you made mention that now is exactly the time the Jays ought to move a lefty. Couldn't agree more. Tallet's unlikely to look better than he does right now and, to other organizations, should carry some appeal as a guy who can throw two batters or two innings. If I'm not mistaken, he's next in line to receive a raise, either through renewal or arbitration, so I'd move him as soon as a bat became available.

Davis Romero could likely do a suitable Tallet impression today; Purcey's nerves suggest he'd be best served getting acclimated as a long man; and, very quietly and consistently, Mike Gosling's demonstrating that he may be the next on the Downs-Tallet converted-starter assembly line. Holliday and Dunn are out of reach, of course. But I wonder about the availability of the following: Brian Giles, Raul Ibanez, Brad Hawpe. Randy Winn and maybe even Ken Griffey Jr.
92-93 - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#185842) #
I agree with trading an arm too. Taking a quick peak at the recent bullpen usage, and Benitez hasn't pitched in a week, and Camp has one appearance in that same span. The fact is that with this rotation Gibby very rarely goes to his #6, and for sure not his #7. The traded lefty (I'd think about Downs too, he could land a REALLY useful bat) and Benitez are then replaced by a healthy Wolfe and Accardo from the DL. That still leaves you with the healthy balance of 4 RHP (Frasor, Accardo, Wolfe, Camp/League) and 3 LHP (Ryan, Downs, Carlson). Even that pen is too deep. And if you are looking for a long man, look no further than Brandon League, who has really impressive numbers since taking over that role in Syracuse.
brent - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#185844) #
game 49- WPA heroes Scutaro (6), Overbay (9), Halladay (5)      WPA let downs Zaun (9), Mench (4), Hill (15), Inglett (2)
ayjackson - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#185851) #
Somebody mentioned Matt Murton in Chicago.  I'm not sure of how Eyre's elbow is in Chicago, but they have had only about 10 lefty innings to date from their pen.  I wonder if Tallet-Murton could be at the heart of a minor trade.  At the least, Murton would be an effective lefty hitter for DH or LF platoon.
jamesq - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#185861) #
Hey Anders, if you have a rogers digital box,  the games were made available on channel 399 at no cost.
Anders - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#185864) #
Alas I am but a lowly student in Montreal, where Rogers television doesn't even exist!
Chuck - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#185866) #
Murton would be an effective lefty hitter for DH or LF platoon

Murton is a righy batter.
HollywoodHartman - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#185868) #

Jays just 3.5 back of WC... PLAYOFFS!

brent - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#185871) #

game 50- WPA heroes Litsch (4), Wilkerson (2)        WPA let down Rios (16)

brent - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#185874) #

Chicagojaysfan asked for a summary (after 50 games).

Catching

 Zaun overall WPA  -0.16   clutch games 6  let down games 8                  Barajas -0.42   clutch 4 not 10

Infield

Overbay   +0.42  clutch 9 not 11                         Hill -0.70 clutch 9 not 15                        Eckstein -0.62 clutch 7 not 12

Rolen  -0.06 clutch 5 not 5                                  Scutaro -0.31  clutch 6 not 5                 Inglett +0.20 clutch 2 not 1

Outfield

Stairs -0.80 clutch 6 not 10                                Wells -0.62 Clutch 7 not 8                      Mench -.062 clutch 0 not 4

Wilkerson -0.64 clutch 2 not 4                           Stewart -0.29 clutch 4 not 9                    Rios -0.87 clutch 8 not 16

Starters

Marcum +1.57 clutch 6 not 2                             Halladay +0.86 clutch 5 not 2                 McGowan +0.46 clutch 4 not 2

Litsch +0.32 clutch 4 not 2                                Burnett -0.23 clutch 4 not 6                     

Bullpen

Ryan +1.87 clutch 9 not 0                                  Carlson +1.37 clutch 6 not 2                   Frasor +0.59 clutch 2 not 0

Downs +0.52 clutch 7 not 3                               Tallet +0.48 clutch 5 not 2                       Camp +0.05 clutch 2 not 1

Only 50 games into this, there is little most of us wouldn't know already (like Rios slumping). Looking at the way the players accumulate their numbers, it seems that they are steaky. I would have to hope that key players like Hill, Eckstein, Stairs and Rios will reverse their numbers soon. Some of this can be pure luck (that when you hit a homerun, there are three runners on base), but that goes for a lot of other stats, too.

ayjackson - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#185875) #

Murton is a righy batter.

I said lefty hitter, but I meant lefty-hitter.  You know, to platoon with Stairs, Wilkerson or Lind.

ayjackson - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#185876) #
Rios for Lincecum is looking sweet.  Should've thrown in Thigpen.
China fan - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#185877) #
 Brent, can you explain the methodology briefly again?  You seem to be saying that Overbay is performing better than Rolen, while the best-performing outfielder is Stewart.   If you believe this is true -- and I'm open-minded at this point -- can you explain in layman's terms how this could be true?  Have we been under-rating Stewart, for example?  Is he under-appreciated for some reason?  Is Rolen over-rated?  As I say, I am agnostic on these questions, and would like to hear the case from you.
tstaddon - Saturday, May 24 2008 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#185878) #
Third place sweet third place.
scottt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#185881) #
I see how Boston gets no-hitters against these guys. Litsch is turning into an effective inning eater while Marcum is reaching the late innings more often than last year. I see an opportunity to take one guy from the pen and add one to the bench. Would have to be a clutch hitter (like a guy who can hit lefty very well or someone who can hit sac-fly routinely) or a gold glove type. Or maybe keep one guy when MacDonald comes back. (Luna goes down when Eck comes back.)

I think it's just a matter of time before they cut Benitez.
scottt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#185882) #
 Brent, can you explain the methodology briefly again?  You seem to be saying that Overbay is performing better than Rolen, while the best-performing outfielder is Stewart.

If I'm not mistaken, this is based on game counts. Rios has sucked in more games than Stewart, although when Rios has been good, he's been vastly better than Stewart.


scottt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#185892) #
So now Overbay has broken Tony Fernandez's team record?
adrianveidt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#185896) #
tstaddon, regarding your earlier post - Giles, Winn, and Griffey are probably too expensive given the $100 million payroll limit the team has already reached.
Ibanez and Hawpe are both good hitters but Hawpe is a lot younger, and a little cheaper at just under $4 mill. If JP trades for Hawpe, it seems to me he would be giving up on Lind, who could be a similar player but there's no time to wait and see. JP could therefore offer Lind and Tallet for Hawpe, which Colorado should certainly consider.
That would give the Jays an outfield with 3 young players all slugging at about .450-ish. The team also has a few other players that slug at .450, plus or minus 50 points, such as Hill, Rolen, Overbay, Stewart and Stairs.
The Jays offensive philosophy would therefore be to string together a few base hits to produce a run, just as they did in the 7th inning today.
The Jays lack a position player that can slug above .600, so they can't do the power game the Red Sox love so much (Man-Ram and Ortiz both slug over .600 typically). Their regulars aren't fast enough to do the Angels' running game (and speaking of .600 sluggers, they don't have Vladimir Guerrero).
Meanwhile, 20% of the Jays' $100 million payroll is taken up by AJ Burnett at $13,200,000 and Lyle Overbay at $6,750,000.
scottt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#185899) #
Hawpe was placed on the DL yesterday with a pulled hamstring.
tstaddon - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#185906) #
Personally, calling up Lind and playing him regularly - with protection against lefties - would be my ideal remedy. That post was just a short scan of a market that's still developing. However, if someone's decided Lind's moment to be done here, I'd think each of those clubs might consider a Lind/Tallet package.

Hawpe's career numbers away from Coors are a concern. And though many of those hitters are expensive now, by July they'd have little more left on their current deals than the amount we saved letting Reed walk.
adrianveidt - Sunday, May 25 2008 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#185916) #
If this was the first year of the JP/Gibbons regime, I think Lind would have been playing regularly. I don't think Ricciardi and GIbbons believe they have enough time to wait for Lind to develop, or risk him not being much of a player this year.
If the Jays don't make the playoffs this year, one or both JP and Gibbons will be gone. I'd hate for my job to depend on a guy like Lind when I can get a more proven player like Hawpe right now.
That having been said, I'd like to see Lind play now, since he has proven himself for the past few years in AAA. He's probably as good as Hawpe or maybe even a little better. Playing him given the tenuous state of the management team would take major gravitas.
Lind wouldn't solve the lack of a proven offensive philosophy (power or speed) though. This team is never going to score like the Red Sox/Yankees.

brent - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#185917) #

Brent, can you explain the methodology briefly again?  You seem to be saying that Overbay is performing better than Rolen, while the best-performing outfielder is Stewart.   If you believe this is true -- and I'm open-minded at this point -- can you explain in layman's terms how this could be true?  Have we been under-rating Stewart, for example?  Is he under-appreciated for some reason?  Is Rolen over-rated?  As I say, I am agnostic on these questions, and would like to hear the case from you.

Scott is right that these are based on game counts. Overbay has been more clutch than Rolen overall and Stewart more than Rios. This is not at all about overall talent and numbers produced. In layman's terms, I recommend going to The Book blog and read Tom Tango's work about leverage index LI. Every out in a game (and the current score) has a number attached to it telling you how important that situation is (bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded and a one run lead will probably be pretty high :) ).  With WPA it reflects how the player helps his team win. A player can have a lot of luck- which is not yet sortable from clutchness. However, I want to know more than just the end number. I want to know how the players got to their total score day by day. A player's overall total could be 0.00, but did they have a lot of great and disastrous games or were neutral most of the time. At the end of the year we might have more to see.

This is the explanation from fangraphs.com of WPA from their glossary:

WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players' WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

 

Here is the fangraphs link to the latest Jays game http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280525114

Now, compare looking at the boxscore to the players' WPA score. Even though Stairs goes 1-3, his WPA score is negative. It is a way of looking at the game differently.

 

 

scottt - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#185944) #
I didn't realize the pitcher's score was just the negative of the opposing hitters combined score.

That's a very poor measure of pitching.

For example, McGowan got a great score because he gave the Royals several occasion to score. Had he thrown a perfect game, his score would have been substantially lower.



scottt - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#185945) #
Jays just 3.5 back of WC... PLAYOFFS!

Just 3.5 back of first place in the east.
groove - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#185947) #
For example, McGowan got a great score because he gave the Royals several occasion to score. Had he thrown a perfect game, his score would have been substantially lower.

Well, not really. He got a great score because he left when the game was well in hand (2 run lead with less than 2 innings to play iirc). His score goes down for allowing opportunities to score, but goes back up when the scoring chance doesn't materialize. A complete game shutout should get the same WPA as a perfect game regardless of the number of hits/walks allowed.  Game scores are better for seeing pitching dominance, but WPA shows you who let your team win.

groove - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#185949) #
Okay - let me revise what I said above.  McGowans score was higher than Litsch's the next day because he pitched more innings when the score was close.  . The total WPA movement for the entire team is +/- 0.5, but if the team gets a huge lead early, the distribution will go more to the batters.  But if Litsch threw a perfect game his WPA would have been the same.
scottt - Monday, May 26 2008 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#185953) #
Well, not really. He got a great score because he left when the game was well in hand (2 run lead with less than 2 innings to play iirc). His score goes down for allowing opportunities to score, but goes back up when the scoring chance doesn't materialize. A complete game shutout should get the same WPA as a perfect game regardless of the number of hits/walks allowed.  Game scores are better for seeing pitching dominance, but WPA shows you who let your team win.

Apparently not. It's because of the leverage index. If the visiting team scores 8 runs in the first inning, the game is already won and the visiting pitcher won't get much WPA no matter what he does.

Ok, I was wrong. McGowan got more because the game was closer. It's still not a very good measure of a pitcher's performance. Still, how does B.J. Ryan get 0.172 for closing a 4-3  game on May 22, while Rodriguez got .215 for doing the same the day before? Is closing a game at home somehow more valuable than closing one on the road?
Advance Scout, Royals, May 23-26 | 28 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.