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The Advance Scout also jumps back on the Blue Jays bandwagon, for the series that Alex and I are tentatively calling THE BIGGEST SERIES EVER. Not to, you know, jinx it or anything. On to... the Advance Scout!

The Jays make their way to Fenway Park, where the Jays are 3-2 this season. Overall, they are 7-4 against those dastardly Red Sox, having outscored them 66 to 31 in those 11 games - the 10-2, 15-4 and 11-0 beatdowns being the chief reason for that. Now we all know how the Jays have done - winners of 11 of 12 - but how about the Red Sox? Well, they come into this series on a bit of a down note after a long string of success. After winning the opener of their set against Tampa, the Sox promptly dropped the next two, with the last game being in 14 inning fashion. On the whole though, they have won 11 of their last 16. After all, this is a pretty good team, and one that is seeking vengeance and a division title - they are 2.5 back of Tampa.  All of this is why this is... THE BIGGEST SERIES EVER (in the last few years).

On Friday youngster David Purcey takes to the mound against grizzled veteran™ Tim Wakefield. Purcey's been alternating dominant and mediocre/poor starts for a while, and this one is scheduled to be a poor one...Wakefield is definitely a veteran - this will be his 501st career appearance for the Red Sox, and most of them have been starts. Dude's been around a long time. Anyway, he is coming off his worst start of the year: he was lit up by the Rangers to the tune of 7 runs in 1.2 innings - he walked 4 and whiffed none. Other than this, Wakefield has been surprisingly consistent. He basically goes 6 or 7 innings every start and allows between either 2 or 3 runs. Seriously - he's pitched 6 or 7 innings in 15 of his 26 starts and allowed 2 or 3 runs 12 times. Maybe that information isn't phenomenally helpful, but I think it's about what should be expected of Wake tonight. At this point in his career there isn't much need for a scouting report on Wakefield. He throws a knuckleball, which bores in on hitters in the mid 60s generally. Hurrah! Well, he also throws a fastball in the low 70s, which he uses sparingly. Even more sparringly used is his curveball - might see two of those a game. Wakefield has been extremely streaky throughout his career, and he's on a cold streak at the moment. He's 15-11 all-time against the Jays, with an ERA of 3.87 - versus 4.32 for his career. No current Jays have hit him particularly well - Kevin Mench is 6/19 with 3 doubles and a homer, Barajas is 5/19 with a homer, Rios is 9/36 with 3 homers, Wells is 13/48 with 2 XBH, Scoots is 5/13. Bonus fun fact: Wakefield made his major league debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1992. The last year they had a winning season. He was a teamate of Barry Bonds.

The first game of the day night doubleheader on Saturday features AJ Burnett against Paul Byrd. Burnett is pitching on three days rest, something he's done three times prior in the regular season. He's been great in those games, going 3-0 with an era of 3.00, averaging 7 innings a start. He's also only allowed 14 hits and 6 walks in his last three starts, spanning 21.2 innings, while whiffing 23. Anyway, back to Byrd. It was a month ago today that he was traded to the Red Sox for a PTBNL. It's worked out alright for the Red Sox - he's 4-1 with an era of 3.82 in his five starts. His one loss was against... you guessed it, the Jays. He also beat us, giving up four runs both times. Byrd has had a pretty interesting off field career. He was named in the Mitchell Report and accused of using HGH, he wrote a book, Free Byrd, in which he extolled his Christianity and also some, uh, not particularly Christian issues. He's also garnered the nickname Frasier, after Kelsey Grammer's character in the eponymous TV show, whom he is said to resemble (visual evidence follows). He seems like a pretty good dude - here he is talking about the worst 'spread killers' in baseball - guys who kill the post game spread the quickest. He also has a sick windup. Anyway, back to the baseball. Byrd throws a fastball, slider, curve and change, none particularly hard at this point in his career. He'll work between about 72 mph and 87 mph. Joe Inglett is 7/10 lifetime, Lyle Overbay is 7/13, and everyone else has pretty much been terrible.



The nightcap Saturday sees Jesse Litsch going up against Bartolo Colon. The 2005 Cy Young Award winner has had a rough time since then, as he's struggled with injuries; this year has been no different. Still, he's managed to make six starts, going 4-2 with an era of 4.09 and a 26/9 k/bb ration in 33 innings. He continues to have problems with the longball, giving up five so far, though three of them were in his last start, when he allowed four runs in four innings. Colon is essentially a two pitch pitcher at this point, throwing a low 90s fastball and a mid 80s slider. Occasionally he'll mix in a change, which comes in at the same speed as the slider. His off speed stuff has been necessarily good in his career - after all, the man could pitch at one point. He threw a one hitter for the AAA Paw Sox earlier this year. He still looks pretty portly... Vernon is 8/23, Mench is 6/22, Zaun is 3/9, and it just gets ugly after that. Barajas is 0/18, Rios 2/9, Scoots 3/16, Rolen 0/7.

On Sunday, Doc takes the bump against Jon Lester in the finale. Lester has been very good this year, probably their best starter (unless you believe Dice-K is for real...). He's got an era of 3.23 in 189.1 innings, with good ratios. He's coming off a phenomenal start against Tampa, where he allowed nine baserunners, no runs and struck out nine in 7.2 innings. He's 14-5 on the season, and put a lot of beatings on people. Also beaten by Jon Lester: lymphoma. So the dude is pretty tough. He even threw a no-hitter earlier this year!  In any event, the Jays handed Lester the worst loss of his career last time the two teams faced, with the Jays roughing him up for seven runs using only five outs. That one start definitely sticks out as an anomaly this year, as Lester has been one of the five best pitchers in the American League this year. On his start against the Rays, everyone's favourite ex-Jay employee Keith Law says he showed "outstanding command of three pitches... over the first five innings, he worked heavily off his fastball, mixing in his cutter and curveball, both of which were very sharp." Lester throws his fastball around 92 on average, but has reportedly ratcheted it up to 97 once or twice. His cutter is faster than a lot of fastball, as it can also touch 90 but is generally a bit slower than that. Finally his curve, which he drops in on hitters in the mid-70s. It's a pretty potent combo. Mench is 3/4 (seriously, just dh this guy a bunch Cito!), Overbay 2/4, Wells 2/6, Rios 2/7. Vernon is the only Jay to have ever homered off Lester.

In other Red Sox news:

The Sox seem pretty set up the middle for years to come, with Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie at second and short. Pedroia has been nothing short of en fuego for the longest time. Over his last 65 games he is hitting .387/.432/.606, with 24 walks, 19 k's and 11 homers. And the guy is 5'9'' 180! He has become a surprise MVP candidate. Ultimately he isn't that close to deserving the MVP, but he's got a pretty good narrative and plays for a playoff team (for now!), while the stronger candidates (the Minnesota boys and Grady Sizemore, to my mind), do not at the moment. Also, Pedroia has his own brand of salsa. Which I'm pretty sure none of the other candidates do. Lowrie is hitting a not shabby .275/.358/.430 - not bad for a 24 year old rookie SS, though he is 8 for his last 41.

Jason Varitek is also mired in a slump, though this one has lasted most of the season. He's 1 for his last 14, and hitting just .226/.314/.365 on the year. The Red Sox captain has had a tough year, as he got divorced, He is the one of two major leaguers to play in the Little League World Series, College World Series, and Regular World Series. He's caught more games than any other Red Sox. He wants a big new contract from the Sox after this year. Good luck with that one, Tek.

David Ortiz is hitting .283/.409/.474 since returning from the DL, with 5 homers in 152 ABs... good, but not Papi-esque. He has apparently been stricken by the Vitamin Water curse. Oh I know, I never would have guessed it either. Jason Bay, on the other hand, is hitting .299/.354/.535 as a Sox, with 7 homers. Those numbers looked a lot better before he went 0/7 yesterday... Bay want's to stay in Boston after 2009, or at least he's saying it. I guess the Jays outfield will be full for a while anyway. Fun fact: Jason Bay's sister, Lauren Bay-Regula, and Brett Lawrie's sister, Danielle, both pitched for team Canada in the Olympics! Brett was there with the men's team as well.

Previously annointed Red Sox deity Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen back to earth, once again showing why we look at minor league track records. Since May 24th he's hitting .240/.282/.321, and is only 12/17 stealing bases (after going 19/21 before that... and hitting .299/.399/.428).

Red Sox close Jonathan Papelbon has been getting himself into some trouble lately. He gave up his first runs in 18 appearances spanning 20.1 innings on Wedneday, blowing the save against Tampa. However, as Keith Law and others have noted, Papelbon, over the course of two games against the Rays, threw 30 straight fastballs. The league caught up to Billy Koch, and they'll catch up to Paps too if he doesn't get his act in order. Red Sox Nation, as always, overreacts.

The Infirmary: Curt Schilling is basically dunzo, but that doesn't stop him from making fun of Yankees fans. Julio Lugo has a left quadriceps injury and has been out for two months. Meanwhile, the future has passed him by.

The 2008 Slogan: "2007 World Series Champions". Rating: A. Hey, it's true.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. Once again, the Chart has been brought to you by Alex's technowizardry. He truly is the advance scout. Also, if any of the links don't work, it's his fault. Or Firefox 3, one of the two.


Advance Scout: Red Sox Sept 12-14 | 45 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#192359) #
Like Curt Schilling, I too enjoy making fun of Yankees fans every chance I get - over at Bronx Banter, they're just playing out the string,  discussing their favourite memories of the old ballpark. Their own season is all but over. But the Yankees are not our concern for the moment.

Here's what's occurred to me. It's time for Boston's karma to change, for their hot streak to end. The Red Sox win two titles, the Patriots win several and go unbeaten, the Celtics rise up from the depths and win a championship... all things must pass, and this will.

And Tom Brady can tell you that it's begun already.
Pistol - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#192363) #
I initially dismissed the Pedrioa MVP talk.  But looking at VORP he's 3rd in the AL behind A-Rod and Aubrey Huff so it's actually a legitimate argument.

Dan Daoust - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#192364) #

"...they're just playing out the string,  discussing their favourite memories of the old ballpark. Their own season is all but over."

And yet, the Tampa-Yankees game gets the ESPN broadcast tonight.

Anders - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#192365) #
And Tom Brady can tell you that it's begun already.

I would caution against reading too much into this - Tom Brady was afflicted by the aforementioned vitamin water curse, except apparently he actually endorsed smart water, which is made by the same people. So I guess we need more evidence before deciding if this is Boston based or flavoured water based.
TamRa - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#192374) #
I, for one, hope that the Yanks are particularly motivated in that last series to see to it that if they can't make the playoffs, the Red Sox won't either.


John Northey - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#192376) #
OK, why did Cito leave in Purcey for the 7th? 120 pitches?

I thought, great we got 6 out of him - a hard 6 but he did it with minimal damage. Now it is 4-0 against Wakefield with a hot knuckler.

Sigh. Cito does like to push the starters.
Moe - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#192377) #
I was just thinking the same: "Over 100 pitches after 6, we won't come back."
Then the double and Cito still leaves him in?

Did Cito want to save the bullpen given all the starts on short rest? But who cares about them if they loose tonight. A loss tonight, plus one of the short rest starts going badly (and that's what he would be saving the pen for) and it's pretty much over.

John Northey - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#192378) #
Well, it was a fun dream. Still a slim shot but moving quickly to none. Lets hope for a 3 game rally that gets the blood flowing again.
ScottTS - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#192379) #
Here's what's occurred to me. It's time for Boston's karma to change, for their hot streak to end. The Red Sox win two titles, the Patriots win several and go unbeaten, the Celtics rise up from the depths and win a championship... all things must pass, and this will. And Tom Brady can tell you that it's begun already.

The Curse of ManRam?

It might make tonight's game slightly easier to take if I knew that the Red Sox were in for another 80 years or so of futility...

Mylegacy - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#192380) #

Tonight we found out the problem with running a marathon. If you're dead last after 25 miles and the only way you can win is by running a sub 4 minute final mile - good luck. None the less, it was a glorious defeat. I feel like I'm writing about the French Army.

Vive les Jays! Vive les Jays Libre!

Chuck - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#192382) #
Check out TB's lineup against Mussina today. Joe Maddon is managing like a Strat-O-Matic manager, loading up his lineup with RHB against the heavily reverse-skewed Mussina.
SK in NJ - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#192384) #
Why in the world did Cito bring in Carlson in an 8-0 game? Good grief. They have so many filler pitchers who could have combined the 3 innings (Tallet, Frasor, Camp, Wolfe, Parrish, etc), but Cito brings in one of his top relievers?

Maybe they are saving the long men for Litsch's start tonight, but still. Between this and Purcey's 120 pitch outing, I am beginning to dread 2009. Halladay + 4 young starters + Cito's pitch counts/overwork - Burnett = Trouble.

Glevin - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#192385) #
"I initially dismissed the Pedrioa MVP talk.  But looking at VORP he's 3rd in the AL behind A-Rod and Aubrey Huff so it's actually a legitimate argument."

He's still the fourth best hitter on his own team and 22nd in the league in OPS for guys with over 350 ABs. Just because 2B is a weak position this year, does not make Pedroia a good MVP candidate.
scottt - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#192386) #
Cito did what he could. He used the best lineup he had against Wakefield. It's too bad it didn't produce any runs.
It's just not the same without Lind and Snider.

The bullpen didn't play in the outcome.

That's 3 errors in 2 nights for Rolen. He had 6 in 98 games before that.

I thought it was a decent outing for Percey, 6.2 innings, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 Ks.







HollywoodHartman - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#192389) #
What should be done with Snider for next year? I don't think he should be the teams only option in case he needs more time. But, signing someone takes away Snider's spot if he is ready come around June or something. It's a preplexing issue.
sduguid - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#192390) #
It would be nice if Cito would take guys out when it is clear that they just don't have it. I suppose the options are sometimes limited but I think a bit quicker hook would have helped a couple of times tonight.
King Ryan - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#192391) #
I hate the God damn Red Sox so much that it's unhealthy.

And yes, I can't believe Litsch and Downs were left in so long when it was immediately obvious that neither of them had any command.  Argh.

whiterasta80 - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#192392) #
The one complaint I had about Cito was always that he left guys in too long.  Even back in the World Series years it was a problem.  What's the precise rules on Sept. call ups.  Can we add Davis Romero to the roster for an extra bullpen arm tomorrow?
scottt - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#192393) #
Litsch wasn't bad. They couldn't touch him.

You don't want to bring Downs in with runners on base.

 It was a close one. Too many leadoff doubles.
Moe - Saturday, September 13 2008 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#192394) #
Especially after first announcing that Litsch is on a tight 100 pitch count. I think his 99th pitch was the lead-off double, so a good point to take him out, but Cito leaves him in all the way until his count is up to 111 and the bases are loaded? Then he brings in a guy who pitched in the morning, o.k. no damages, but it can't be healthy. Finally he brings in Downs who is not the same anymore after he was used too often late Aug/ early Sept.

I would think about not using the Doc tomorrow and I think shutting down Downs for the rest of the year (or use him only twice a week) might not be a bad idea.

The hitting might be better, but the pen management of Gibbons was clearly superior. Sure one could always second guess him, but on average, J.G. did a much better job with the pitchers. I wonder whether that's his background as a hitting guy -- thinking that pitchers are "softies"?


Glevin - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#192396) #
Egads...as a fan of baseball first and foremost, it's disturbing to continue to watch managers abuse young arms. Tim Lincecum threw 138 pitches tonight in a 7-0 game. 138!!!! Edinson Volquez threw 121 in a meaningless game but Baker is well known for ruining young pitchers.
92-93 - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#192397) #
It's even more concerning that it's not an isolated case. The Giants are 10 games back in September and here's Tiny Tim's last 6 starts, by pitch count - 119, 115, 132, 92, 127, 138. Bud Black deserves to be fired for that alone.
92-93 - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 01:20 AM EDT (#192398) #
Er, Bruce Bochy. I really wish we could edit posts.
China fan - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#192399) #
I think this proves the opposite:  that pitch counts aren't a good way of measuring a pitcher's future longevity or health.   I don't believe that all the medical experts, doctors and trainers on these ball clubs are reckless and stupid, while the truth can be discerned instead by a casual fan who looks at the pitch count on the box score.   It's just not that simple.  If it was that simple, ball clubs would be babying their best pitchers by sitting them down for any meaningless game -- for the last two months of the season for some teams.   If you buy the logic that 120 pitches is too much, then presumably 40 pitches is better than 80 pitches, and no pitches is the best of all.    Gotta save that arm!   Let's have him rest for the last two months of the season, so he'll be twice as good next year!
Glevin - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 02:42 AM EDT (#192400) #
"I think this proves the opposite:  that pitch counts aren't a good way of measuring a pitcher's future longevity or health.   I don't believe that all the medical experts, doctors and trainers on these ball clubs are reckless and stupid, while the truth can be discerned instead by a casual fan who looks at the pitch count on the box score."

They are not all stupid which is why most teams don't throw their young guys 120+ pitches. There are still teams that think that chemistry wins champions, that doesn't make them right.

"If you buy the logic that 120 pitches is too much, then presumably 40 pitches is better than 80 pitches, and no pitches is the best of all."

No. If a number greater than X is bad for the arm, why would it follow that a number greater than Y is bad for the arm? There is a definite point where throwing a lot of pitches hurts the vast majority of pitchers. You don't know exactly which pitchers or which pitch count, but the main point is...WHY TAKE THE RISK? You are a crappy team completely out of it winning 7-0 in a meaningless game. It's risk-reward. The upside of Lincecum throwing 138 pitches is none. It doesn't matter one single iota in any way that Lincecum pitched the 9th inning of a 7-0 game instead of Tyler Walker or whoever. The downside, if you are wrong, is that you ruin Tim Lincecum's career.
John Northey - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 06:26 AM EDT (#192401) #
Checking the stats I could see what they were thinking in SF. Last night was Lincecum's first shutout. Thus the manager risked damage to his arm in exchange for a stat.

Funny how that is. Statheads go 'don't risk his arm' but the manager, who probably gets sick of statheads, goes 'he deserves a shutout'.
Chuck - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#192402) #

What a curious day of bullpen usage. Game 2's trouble started in game 1, when Gaston didn't reach to the back end of bullpen to protect an 8-0 lead, and instead wasted 3 innings of Carlson and Tallet, with no consideration that they might be needed later that same day.

And Camp vs. Ortiz when you have a ten-man bullpen? How on earth does that happen?

Matthew E - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#192403) #
At this stage I don't expect the Jays to actually overtake Boston or Tampa Bay. I just don't want them to roll over. And I don't think they will.
Thomas - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#192404) #
I watched the last three innings of the Giants-Padres game last night and, FWIW, Lincecum showed no drop in velocity or lack of control in the 9th inning. The Giants announcers kept going on about how great it was going to be for Lincecum to get his first shutout, as John pointed out. I was almost as surprised that the Giants announcers didn't bat an eyelid at Lincecum going out for the 9th than I was by Bochy keeping him in the game. I agree it's nice for a pitcher to get his first CGSO, but obviously not at the expense of a pitch count of 138.
China fan - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#192405) #
  If the number of pitches-per-game is so important, shouldn't we care equally about pitches-per-season, and pitches-per-career?   If we care so much about the number of pitches in a three-hour period, presumably the number of pitches in a one-month period or five-month period should be equally important, shouldn't it?  But nobody even seems to bother keeping track of those numbers, and nobody tells a pitcher to take a week off to limit his seasonal pitch count, so I can't help suspecting that it's not a crucial issue.
    A year ago, if I recall rightly, people were fretting about the high pitch counts by Halladay and Burnett.  It didn't seem to hurt either one of them this season.
   I think it was Magpie who pointed out that a game situation -- length of game, temperature, etc -- is more important than a simple pitch count.
   With many millions of dollars at stake in the contracts of pitchers, with indeed their entire careers at stake, would any pitcher be willing to throw 120 or 130 pitches in a game if it significantly increased his chances of injury?  Maybe if he was desperately hoping to get to the major leagues, yes.  But if he already has a good career, who would jeopardize so much money if a high pitch count was a significant injury risk?  With a manager's job at stake, with the club's playoff chances at stake, would any of them allow a pitcher to throw 120 or 130 pitches in a game if it significantly increased the risk of losing a key pitcher?   I don't think so.
   I think the reality is:  a high pitch count is sometimes risky, and sometimes not.  It depends on the situation.  The raw number itself is not important.

Flex - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#192406) #
By the way, I think some props are due to Ricciardi for going after Lincecum in the off season. Rios has had an off year, Lincecum's been great -- I think Ricciardi pretty much nailed that one. Sure pitching is the Jays strength, but imagine how good the rotation would be next year with him as the number 2. And given the emergence of Snider, you could project a Lind/Wells/Snider outfield next year being the core of a solid offence supporting a stellar rotation.

John Northey - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#192407) #
As I recall there has been a few studies which showed that high pitch counts for younger pitchers is dangerous for their career vs older pitchers who can take it. The key being where their body is in its development. IE: if you are 21 and still growing then a 140 pitch count could kill your arm, but if you are 32 it won't. I suspect part is also that the pitcher has the experience to know when he is losing it (ie: dropping the arm, shifting mechanics to keep going) and knows not to push it too much.

All this says is that going 120+ for Halladay is probably safe as Roy is fully grown and knows his limits. Purcey might be OK as at 26 as he has probably stopped growing by now. Lincecum is 24 and might or might not be fully grown (I think 25 is about the point the average guy hits his physical limits but am not a doctor so don't take my word for it) so the effect 138 has on him is up in the air. Depends on if he is A) fully grown and B) knows his limits.

2009 will be interesting as we'll see if Lincecum is a Clemens (able to take it) or a Wood (not).
Mike Green - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#192408) #
!38 pitches is a lot.  If the White Sox had Vazquez, say,  throw 138 in a 1-0 game in his next game, I wouldn't bat an eyelash (providing he was looking OK).  Having Lincecum do it in a blowout is a waste.
Moe - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#192409) #
If the number of pitches-per-game is so important, shouldn't we care equally about pitches-per-season, and pitches-per-career? 

This is something I have been wondering about for a while and never really found much about. For a season, it's always innings pitched, never pitches thrown. A lot of people use the "no more than 30 IP more than in the previous season" rule. Before this season, McGowan was on a list of young pitchers having violated that rule in 2007 -- predicting he would go down this year. After reading this, my thought was: Normally a pitcher's IP go up because he is better than before, but that mostly also means pitches/inning go down, so in principle you IP can go up, but total pitches thrown stays constant -- of course that's an extreme example, but I would really like to see the 30IP rule expressed as not more than 300 pitches more (or 500?)
Jays2010 - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#192410) #

What should be done with Snider for next year? I don't think he should be the teams only option in case he needs more time. But, signing someone takes away Snider's spot if he is ready come around June or something. It's a preplexing issue.

I'm of the opinion that if we can get a true starting SS, then we can afford to rotate the DH spot until Snider is presumably ready by midseason. A lot of people seem to be okay with the idea of moving Hill to SS and letting Inglett/Scutaro platoon at 2B. Instead, why not just get a true SS and let the DH rotate until June, thus allowing Inglett to play against all RHP and having Scutaro/Bautista et al play against LHP. I just don't think there is much on the FA market that makes sense at DH, considering the better players will require multiyear deals and the lesser players aren't much of an upgrade over an Inglett/Scutaro/Bautista platoon. Perhaps signing someone on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training makes sense as a placeholder for Snider...

Anders - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#192412) #
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#192413) #
2010, who exactly do you have in mind as a shortstop solution? Aside from JJ Hardy, who we'll have plenty of competition for- I don't think the rest are worth it.  And there's no Miguel Tejada available via trade as far as I know
Mike Green - Sunday, September 14 2008 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#192416) #
Curiously (see above), Vazquez was throwing a 3 hit shutout today into the eighth inning with a 2-0 lead.  The Sox pulled him after 106 pitches. 
92-93 - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#192419) #
2010, who exactly do you have in mind as a shortstop solution?

I'll take that question. Cito seems quite content with Scutaro/McDonald handling SS for another year, so here's what I would do. I'd trade Adam Lind to the Phillies for Jason Donald (just the framework if you think it's not fair). Donald hit .307/.391/.497 in 92 games of AA this year for the Reading Phillies as a 23 year old. The trade makes sense for the Phillies, as it would be Jason Donald and around 20m for 5 years of Adam Lind or 70m+ for 5 years to retain Pat Burrell. And obviously, 2B and SS are locked for quite awhile in Philly. There have been reports linking Sabathia to the Phillies, and letting Burrell go with a competent replacement could free up the $ needed to shore up the pitching. I think this makes sense from the Jays standpoint too, because I have a strong feeling JP wants Snider to open 2009 with the big club. The problem with that approach is the optics - it would be very hard for him to not go after hitting this offseason and try spinning it to the media, who would bash the idea of relying on Lind-Snider for LF/DH, and probably rightfully so. A Lind trade would open up LF for Snider to play everyday and bat 9 without the pressure, because the Jays would sign a DH to complement the lineup. The few reports I have read like Donald's defense, and he might be able to bridge the gap (2010-2012?) or more to hopefully a Justin Jackson arrival in Toronto. And please don't take this as me being unhappy with Lind's performance - I just think the ceiling is lower than many think. I see a Frank Catalanotto-type bat there, with more power but perhaps less of an on-base ability.
Jays2010 - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#192420) #

2010, who exactly do you have in mind as a shortstop solution? Aside from JJ Hardy, who we'll have plenty of competition for- I don't think the rest are worth it.

Well you are mostly correct, there are not many viable options aside from Hardy (although I do think we have a solid shot at him considering Milwaukee needs pitching and we may have a surplus depending on what happens with AJ.) There is Khalil Greene who I still consider a good option (.800+OPS outside of Petco) and Rafael Furcal.

This is probably a longshot, but the Braves desperately need pitching and may consider trading Yunel Escobar for pitching if they believe that Brent Lillibridge can handle the position down the road. Perhaps Litsch/Scutaro for Escobar? Again, this is probably a longshot, but the Braves are one team that needs pitching and they may consider it a better option to trade for someone such as Litsch than dropping 4 years and 50 million on someone like Jon Garland.

Johnny Peralta may be available if Cleveland feels that Asdrubel Cabrera can play SS (of course, the Blue Jays have to feel that Peralta can play SS for them). Maybe Litsch and Scott Campbell?

There are not many options that are a whole lot better than Scutaro, but if we can land one of them then I'd feel comfortable rotating the DH and basically allowing one of Inglett/Bautista/Scutaro to play everyday until Snider is ready.

Overall, if JP actually keeps AJ, then I'd like to see him use his pitching surplus to acquire hitting. If an unproven Edison Volquez can land Josh Hamilton, then I'd have to think that guys like Marcum and Litsch can definately acquire a cheap, controllable hitter considering that young, controllable pitching is the biggest commodity. If we get Burnett, I'd be comfortable with Halladay, Burnett, Marcum, Purcey and possibly R Romero beginning the year as the fifth starter until McGowan is hopefully ready. In 2010, we'd (hopefully) have an even bigger surplus considering Cecil and Mills should be ML ready. I know JP hates to trade pitching, but considering how valuable it is and considering how many 3-5 starters we have in the farm system I'd like to see him take advantage of the market and, for example, trade a guy like Litsch because we have guys like R Romero ready to take his place. Of course, if AJ does not stay (or is not replaced via free agency) then trading a starter becomes difficult.

Jays2010 - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#192421) #

I'd trade Adam Lind to the Phillies for Jason Donald

While I don't think this is a bad trade, there is no way that it would happen. Supposedly Ron Mahay for Jason Donald almost happened. If this is true, then Brian Tallet and maybe someone such as D Romero could acquire Donald. Lind is worth quite a bit more than Donald at this point. We should not be trading Lind at this point. I'd rather trade Overbay and move Lind to first until David Cooper is ready (at which time trading Lind would make sense because his value should be solid). If we are going to acquire a SS prospect, it almost makes more sense to just move Hill to SS and let inglett/Scutaro platoon until Scott Campbell is ready.

John Northey - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#192423) #
To get a solid everyday shortstop I think the cost would be at least Marcum or McGowan, not Litsch, plus 2 prospects. One never knows, some team could miss that Litsch is the type who could vanish quickly due to his low K/IP but I suspect most will want the guys who have shown they can K guys. To get a really good one I suspect two of the 3 young starters would be needed plus prospects.
whiterasta80 - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#192434) #

Of the names listed I have the following opinions

Khalil Greene- Big fan of his defense, but this season he wouldn't have given us any more production than a Scutaro and MacDonald platoon.  We'd be buying low and hoping for the best IMO

Jhonny Peralta- I think he could be the solution to our 3B issue, but his defense makes Eckstein look like a gold glover

Felipe Lopez- I have no problem gambling an incentive laden contract on him, he's probably my first choice out of the external options.

Jason Donald- He's a prospect- and while the deal may be fair- this is a rebuilding-type move. If I'm going to move Lind for a SS- it better be a MLB proven one. I'd be more comfortable if the deal was for Brandon Wood or Reid Brignac (not proven, but at least exposed to the bigs), but they're probably out of our price range.

I also agree with 2010 that the better option would be switching Hill and trying our own MI prospect Scott Campbell. (with Inglett as cover)

Rafael Furcal- is the solution to alot of our needs (leadoff, speed, SS who can hit), but can he stay healthy?  He's also going to cost alot more given that he was playing incredible baseball before the injury.

JJ Hardy- Would be a nice addition but will also cost alot more as well

-- For both Furcal and Hardy, my position is this.  If we have 20 million to spend.  We could spend 10 on them and 10 on Pat Burrel.  My preference over that would be to simply spend 20 on Manny (who destroys the ball in the dome) and go with some sort of internal solution. I think that would result in a stronger lineup. Of course my preference to both those solutions is spending money on a #2 (Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets) but that's for another discussion.

 

jgadfly - Monday, September 15 2008 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#192443) #

       Tossing around names of shortstops ... how about Bobby Crosby of Oakland ?   Of course that might mean we would still need a SS to play the road games but he does hit up a storm at the dome.

        Also, looking at plusses coming out of Boston this weekend (besides the hitting of Lind and Snider), I thought that Litsch showed some promise.  Did anyone else notice that his fastball was hitting 94 and 95 MPH on the radar.  Also, I keep forgetting that he is still only 23 and probably still has a degree of maturing to do (Lose the hat, Jesse).  He still looks like he is a puppydog batboy hangin' out with the bigboys AJ and Doc.  Is Litsch really 6'1" and 215 lbs ?  He looks like he could grow into a Sabathia/Zambrano clone.  He held together pretty well considering the adventures of the first inning and the intimidating presence of the Boston fans. 

         Speaking of which, does anyone know whether they teach crowd intimidation 101 at umpire school?   It seems that in Boston and NY, not only are the umps good for a run for the homeside offence but also save a run for the defence.  How does one make a "bang-bang" call on sound (ball hitting glove, foot hitting base) when the crowd noise is such that it's difficult to hear oneself think ?   How is it that an ump can pick up that sound when he is standing the same distance from 1st that  a tight end is standing from his quarterback who is yelling audibles at the top of his lungs and who still can't hear him ?  

         Anyway, as they used to say in Brooklyn, "Wait til next year"...  and hold onto Jesse, he may just be the real thing, just get him a new hat. 

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