Yep, I would have to agree that Mills will be demoted to make room for Doc.  The problem is that Cecil, too, should probably be sent back to Vegas -- he's just not quite ready -- but who do you bring up to replace him?   Suddenly that massive surplus of starting pitchers is looking very thin again.  Janssen and Ray are still injured (and probably aren't suited for the rotation just now anyway)  That leaves Purcey -- whose last start at Vegas was a bad one, after seemingly a lot of improvement -- or Castro, who is probably not ready, and Zep, who is almost certainly not ready. What to do?  Muddle through with Cecil as the 5th starter, I guess.

Toronto needs to finish 6-3 or 7-2 at home; at least 6-4 or 7-3 on the road.  June 28 - July 4 is the time for J.P. to get the BIG SCARY BAT for this team.  That gives the Jays 79-85 games with improved offense .  As opposed to 57-64 games if you wait until the end of July.  Of course, J.P. will find some reason to do nothing.            Toronto has dependable starting pitching:  Halladay, Romero, Tallet, Richmond and ?????????????????????????   Someone of:Cecil, Mills, Purcey, Ray, Castro, ?????? will step up?

Sure enough, the Jays announced after today's game that Mills has been optioned to Vegas.  That was fast.  But not surprising.

 Doc, meanwhile, will be activated for Monday's game.

Of course, J.P. will find some reason to do nothing.

We don't actually know what Washington wants for Nick Johnson, what Chicago wants for Jermaine Dye or Jim Thome, or what Oakland wants for Matt Holliday. But make an offer. What price are you willing to pay? And most important, what's in it for Mark Shapiro or Kenny Williams or Billy Beane?

They can't be asking for too much for Johnson. He gets injured very often (in fact is playing sore right now) and is nowhere near even Type B status, so Washington receives nothing when he walks this offseason. It would be crazy if JP hasn't called and inquired on which arms it would take for Johnson.

Kevin Millar, heading into today's 0/3, has hit .204/.295/.323 in 105 PA since May 8th. Combined with Bautista's ineptitude over the same period, and Cito's reluctance to start Overbay vs. LHP, it makes for very weak lineups vs. LHP. I'd really like to see what a locked in Overbay could do vs. LHP, and there's the added bonus of having his stellar glove in there. Giving all this playing time to Millar because he's a seasoned veteran, and especially batting him 4th, is just crazy.

For Nick Johnson, that's easy - just think "more than Manny Del Carmen." In other words, someone major league useful right now, someone cheap who we can control for the next few years. And someone better than Brandon League.

Who does Toronto have that fits that description? That's not currently in the rotation?

Magpie, while the price tag was Manny Del Carmen, I am wondering if it won't ultimately turn out to be considerably less.

First, I am thinking the Nats were being greedy with their demands given the Red Sox bullpen depth and the panic they were likely feeling given Ortiz's woeful start. With Ortiz starting to hit, perhaps the Sox feel less panicked to find a plan B. That said, Lowell's continued precarious health status might necessitate a new body, after all, being added to the 1B/3B/DH mix. Maybe Johnson is still in their sights.

Second, as time passes, the acquiring team will have Johnson for fewer games, theoretically lowering his value. Of course, new injuries creating holes to plug might suddenly increase his value.

Third, Nats management might want to move Johnson before, you know, he gets hurt again, potentially eliminating his trade value altogether. What's the over-under, percentage-wise, of Johnson being on the DL come the end of July?

The Nats pitching is obviously terrible. Anyone would help. Would the Jays give up a Robert Ray who figures to be nowhere on their depth chart? Would the Nats see that as nearly enough compensation? (Aside: I think Ray is hurt and isn't there a rule about not being able to trade a player on the DL?)

Fair point, Chuck - Manny Del Carmen is really good. I think Boston would have to be in a panic to make that move.

And on the other hand - it's Nick Johnson. He only looks like Babe Ruth. He's just not that exciting. He's basically a fragile version of Lyle Overbay. Seriously - they're nearly the same player. Overbay walks a lot, Johnson walks A LOT - that's the only difference with the stick. Johnson is a good defender, Overbay is a Very Good defender.

Changing the subject, has everyone heard the story of JC Romero and the fan?

Robert Eaton, a 25-year-old resident of New Port Richey, Fla., filed a police report alleging that Romero assaulted him soon after the game, the St. Petersburg Times reported earlier today. Eaton told the Times that Romero responded angrily to a comment Eaton made about steroids. He alleges that Romero "grabbed him by the neck" and "pushed him" after Eaton asked the reliever, who was suspended 50 games earlier this season for a positive drug test, "for some juice."

Okay - Romero shouldn't have done that. He was of course suspended for 50 games earlier this season - he says the banned substance came from an over-the-counter medication and has actually sued the manufacturer and two retail outlets, which suggests that he might be serious.

Anyway, I seem to remember as one of my basic Life Lessons - "Do not yell derogatory things at people you don't know. Especially when they're way bigger and stronger than you are."

I can be a slow learner, but I had mastered that one by age thirteen.

Second, as time passes, the acquiring team will have Johnson for fewer games, theoretically lowering his value. Of course, new injuries creating holes to plug might suddenly increase his value.

I don't think that factors at all. It's purely a matter of offer and demand. The Nationals will make the move when they feel the demand has peaked and they get the best offer. As time go buy, he could get injured possibly voiding his trade value, other players could get injured possibly increasing the demand and some teams might fall out of contention which could reduce the demand and maybe even offer an alternative offer.

I'm sure everybody remember what Matt Stairs went for.

The Nats pitching is obviously terrible. Anyone would help. Would the Jays give up a Robert Ray who figures to be nowhere on their depth chart? Would the Nats see that as nearly enough compensation?

Is Bobby Ray really "nowhere on their depth chart"?  Why?  I was rather impressed by the little I saw of him up here.  But what do I know?

Is Bobby Ray really "nowhere on their depth chart"?  Why?  I was rather impressed by the little I saw of him up here.  But what do I know?

My presumption was based less on his ability and more on the sheer volume of starting pitchers -- many, albeit, injured -- that would appear to rank ahead of him on the depth chart. Does he even crack the top 10?

Interesting points about Johnson. I agree that it's a question of supply and demand. In recent seasons, the deals often seem to go down to the wire as various teams come out of the woodwork to make offers (presumably the Nats are aware of this and are biding their time). The problem for the Jays is that without adding a LF/DH soon they might be chasing three teams for the wild card, let alone the AL East title, at that point.

I did a search on mlbtraderumors.com and it looks as though the Red Sox, Giants, and Mets are three possible suitors, or were as of a month ago. Of course, Ortiz has picked it up dramatically since then, so the Sox may be less interested. I still think the Jays are a perfect fit for the Nats. We give them a young pitcher or two; we get a good-fielding 1B/DH left-handed hitting rental with a career OBP of 398.

I think Ray is a good idea, although the perception might be that he's too much of a fringe prospect. Would Tim Collins be too much to give up?

Would Tim Collins be too much to give up?

Why don't you just trade away my heart? :-(

I would do Johnson for Collins in a heartbeat. But I doubt the Nats would do it.

Maybe Collins and someone from AA, Luis Perez?

I would think it would take something more like a Purcey to get a Johnson deal done.

Another available bat that could help the Jays is Teahen. He's hitting .294/.362/.494 vs. RHP this year, and could sub in across the diamond. If DeRosa could be had for Perez, Teahen would likely only cost League and a lower level arm, or something along those lines.

JP should look to improve the offense BEFORE the Jays kick off all these divisional July games.

I wonder if the Cubs are ready to cash in their chips on Milton Bradley's three-year deal?  What would it take?  Perhaps we could include Ryan in the deal to offset some salary.

Cito stikes me as the kind of tonic that might soothe what ails poor Milton.

Not a good day in Jaysland yesterday. The big club gets blown out, and the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays (and Angels) all win. Meanwhile, in a depressing reminder of the Jays offenses of recent years, the starting lineup included Millar, Bautista, Chavez and McDonald (with Millar in the cleanup spot, no less). To add insult to injury, AJ combined with two relievers on a one-hitter against the Mets.

Sigh. I suppose the good news is that (1) the Jays are only two games back in the wild card race, (2) Doc is ready to pitch on Monday, and (3) Barajas is day-to-day instead of taking up residence on the 15-day DL.

Not to get all Cassandra-like, but I think the Jays are going to get exposed in July unless they get another strong hitter into the lineup. A mishmash of Adams, Millar, Bautista and/or Dellucci just isn't good enough against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. This dilemma really does remind me of last year, and makes me wonder whether JP learned anything from the experience.

Just saw something cool on the RC scoreboard. It looked like this:

79 MPH
FASTBALL

Don't remember seeing that before.

Moyer needs two more wins to tie Carl Hubbell - Carl Freaking Hubbell - for 10th all time by a southpaw.

re: Nick Johnson

There has been a regime change since, but the Nats front office rather foolishly held on to Dmitri Young during his All-Star 2007 season when they could've pried something nice away from, say, the Twins, who desperately needed a DH for the stretch run.  They got 50 games from a fan fave last year and now his career is probably done.  I don't know that this is an organization that strikes while the iron is hot or is really trying to get younger/better.

Interesting what it took to get DeRosa from the Indians. Derosa for Perez and a PTBNL.

DeRosa is on pace to hit 29 HR with 100+ RBIs.

Perez was the #3 prospect for the Cardinals coming into the year. The Cardinals had the #8 talented system in the Minors coming into the year. The Jays had the 19th.

79 MPH
FASTBALL

Don't remember seeing that before.

Pat Hentgen circa 2004 maybe? If not him, surely Lenny DiNardo.

Nick Johnson seems to be the grand prize for a lot of teams at the deadline, and there will surely be an auxtion of talent held to acquire him. Why not give up a little less talent and try and acquire Aubrey Huff? Age doesn't really matter since it's merely a rental player and he's familiar with AL East pitching.

41 wins and in fourth place- how depressing! This could be a year of some embarrassment to MLB if four AL East teams win 90 games. Jays fans should cry murder for MLB to fix it's system. It would probably take NY and Bos getting squeezed from the playoffs for two consecutive years with 90+ wins each for it to get done.

And on the other hand - it's Nick Johnson. He only looks like Babe Ruth. He's just not that exciting. He's basically a fragile version of Lyle Overbay. Seriously - they're nearly the same player. Overbay walks a lot, Johnson walks A LOT - that's the only difference with the stick. Johnson is a good defender, Overbay is a Very Good defender.

With all due respect, I have to disagree.  Johnson has a 36-point advantage in career OPS (admittedly mostly from walks) which is significant to consider given the starting point of Overbay's very tidy .816.  I think it's more apt to say that Lyle Overbay is a less fragile poor man's Nick Johnson.  On the other hand, Overbay probably has significantly greater practical value due to Johnson's injury problems.

As much as I love Johnson's ability, I don't think it would really benefit the Jays to trade for him unless they have a mind-blowing offer for Overbay.  Since that's not going to happen, I think it would benefit the Jays more to go after a guy they don't need to play in the field regularly since the team hasn't had a decent designated hitter since Frank Thomas '07.  If the Jays trade for Nick the Stick, they're going to pay a premium for defence at a position they already have covered.

 

Oops, that was a major brain cramp.  My apologies to Mr. Lind.

I still think the team needs a great hitter more than a great fielder if they're going to deal for anyone, though.

Parker, all this trade-for-Johnson talk is with the idea that he'd slot in as the team's DH. Lind would stay in LF and Overbay would stay at 1B.

Or was that the brain cramp you were alluding to?

I don't see the Jays doing anything at the deadline, as usual, other than dump contracts.  In Blair's latest he speculates the Jays are nearing the breaking point with Rios and Wells and also mentions some possible revenue issues that I'm guessing would hamper them from taking on any more salary this year:

"The Blue Jays are in danger of a serious revenue crunch that will impact their ability to do on-field business next year. Money's not coming in, and Roy Halladay needs to be paid."

NIce idea, but what GM in his right mind would want to acquire Wells? If I'm an opposing GM (say, Brian Sabean), I would take Wells if the Jays paid half of his remaining salary and threw in a couple of prospects. That doesn't seem likely. And at this point, Rios would probably net pretty much a nil return--better to wait a season or two and try to sell high (or at least higher than now). But it is painful to watch in the short-term, especially when so many Jays (Lind, Hill, Rolen, Scutaro, Overbay, even Barajas) are having career years.

Johnson has a 36-point advantage in career OPS (admittedly mostly from walks)

Entirely from walks. Overbay's a career .281 hitter with a .452 slugging percentage; Johnson's a career .273 hitter with a .454 slugging percentage. Overbay's career high in HRs in 22; Johnson's is 23. Johnson's edge in career OPS comes from his edge in OnBase, and that's entirely because he walks A LOT, rather than a lot.

Interesting article by Blair. At the end of the day the strongest feeling the Jays will elict from the average fan is apathy. They've been mediocre for so long I don't really expect a whole lot more and if I do then I'm bound to be disappointed. Wells gets huge money to be below average at best or terrible at worst. Rios might be the dumbest player I've seen put on a uniform. Ryan's arm made that deal a bad one. Too much money tied up for too little in return.

Rios needs to change his stance to something like what Dale Murphy had: stand up straight instead of hunched up.    He'll get traded, straightened out and start hitting like an All-Star.  Memo to Cito: You blew it.  Vernon Wells is just a noose around the neck of the franchise, one that will slowly cinch tighter and tighter until it strrangles the host.  Short of Divine Intervention, there is no way out on that one.  If you look at it like a Greek tragedy, it  has elements of hubris, nemesis and catharsis.

Is Brian Tallet tough to watch or what? 6 walks today....It's like watching one of those blindfolded knifethrowers with the woman spinning on the board, only you just saw him have a little too much to drink backstage.

I think the idea Rios can't be dealt is a wild overstatement. In fact, I think it would be very possible to screw up badly by dealing him.

I would, if I had the chance, entertain offers for a similarly talented player. but to "dump" Rios is just silly. His contract never gets higher that 12.5 per year and that's not REMOTELY the burden that Wells out years are going to be.

Even if he never ends up playing up to his potential over a full year, he's not vastly overpaid if we keep him and there's still enough potential for breakout to make him attractive to other teams.

Wells' contract was just borderline before - requiring consistant above average performance to be reasonable but the market reversal really sent that proposition over the cliff and the only way you move him now is to trade him for similarly bad money ar hope a Mondesi-esque opportunity comes along.

The casual joining of the two players as if they are equally bad problems is damned sloppy, I don't care if you are Jeff Blair.

pimping what I think is a great idea - if you can't drag through the whole thing (some of which I've said before) at least skip to the punch line towards the end:

http://mvn.com/thesouthpaw/2009/06/29/the-vernon-wells-dilemma.html

Tell me what's wrong with that? and if it's as good as i think it is, is it possible to talk up the idea and maybe get Jays managment or even VW himself thinking along these lines?

I hate to do it, but I think the loss yesterday needs to be placed squarely on Cito's shoulders. The strategy in the 9th was questionable at best. With your team down by one, I think you have to sacrifice Hill to move the runners into scoring position and let Wells knock him in. In addition, if they indeed gave JonnyMac the steal sign, I think that was another poor decision.

Parker, all this trade-for-Johnson talk is with the idea that he'd slot in as the team's DH. Lind would stay in LF and Overbay would stay at 1B.

Or was that the brain cramp you were alluding to?

What I meant was that I was completely ignoring Lind's contributions at DH from earlier this season when I said the team hasn't had a decent DH since Frank Thomas '07.  I understood Johnson would be acquired to DH, which is what I meant when I said it would force the Jays to pay a premium to bring in a player with excellent defence they aren't going to use since Overbay is already entrenched at 1B.

Entirely from walks. Overbay's a career .281 hitter with a .452 slugging percentage; Johnson's a career .273 hitter with a .454 slugging percentage. Overbay's career high in HRs in 22; Johnson's is 23. Johnson's edge in career OPS comes from his edge in OnBase, and that's entirely because he walks A LOT, rather than a lot.

Okay, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on the significance of the difference between walking a lot and walking A LOT.  You're right though; they are remarkably similar players.

An interesting idea there.  Wells agreeing to defer a big chunk of his contract long term to allow the team more cash up front to keep Halladay around.  If I recall correctly Wells said his deal was so his kids and grandkids wouldn't have to worry about working (ie: could do whatever they wanted without having to go to McDonalds or something) so a deferred deal where he still ends up with (inflation adjusted) the same cash would work out fine for him.  However, for the Jays would it really help a lot?  Depends on assumptions.  If you assume that MLB revenues will climb faster than inflation then a deferred deal would be good for the Jays as even inflation adjusted Wells deal would cost a lower percentage of revenues this way.  If you assume Rogers has no problem with having debts out 20+ years (which affects the value of the franchise and is a pain on the books) then it could happen.

Guess we'll see.  Btw, Blair really seems to be a mouthpiece for the finances of the team - lots of crying poor it seems whenever money is brought up without asking about why the Jays aren't in the top 10 of MLB for spending when their revenues should have the ability to be there (30+ million potential TV audience, large local market for tickets, etc.).

One more btw - Wells OPS+ is now 82 vs Millar's 83 but only Bautista is on the bench (along with Millar) and having a higher OPS+ (Snider was at 80 when sent down).

"I hate to do it, but I think the loss yesterday needs to be placed squarely on Cito's shoulders. The strategy in the 9th was questionable at best. With your team down by one, I think you have to sacrifice Hill to move the runners into scoring position and let Wells knock him in."

Absolutely not. First of all, Vernon Wells is terrible in the - runner on 3rd with less than 2 out situation - , because he has a tendency to hit shallow pop ups and a lot of ground balls to the left side. Secondly, Aaron Hill is one of your best hitters, and you've already removed your only catching option from the game. Playing for only one run would have been incredibly stupid.

"In addition, if they indeed gave JonnyMac the steal sign, I think that was another poor decision."

Being aggressive is almost never a poor decision, especially in that spot. Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was a bad call - Phillies fans were probably upset when Ruiz and Werth tried the double steal, and Ruiz got nailed at 3rd. They might want to remember the numerous times throughout the year that Manuel puts on the double-steal and it's successful with all that team speed they have. JMac likely thought he wasn't being paid too much attention to because of the circumstances, so he went on his own volition. I'm not going to rip him for it; it's far from the sort of base running mistake we see Rios make on a weekly basis.

 

Getting thrown out at third base in the 9th inning of a one run game is dumb.  I don't care if it wasn't the 3rd out, and I don't care if it's a mistake Rios makes.  Come on, you don't run yourself out of the game like that.  If you go, you'd better be damn sure that you've a fantastic jump and that you'll be safe.  Otherwise, be prepared to deal with people telling you what a stupid move that was.   What's John McDonald's career stolen base percentage?  Percentage when he's stealing 3b?

Okay, I just looked it up.  McDonald has 29 career steals versus 11 caught stealing, for a 72.5% rate, which isn't bad.  However, if you only have 29 steals in 11 partial seasons in the big leagues, stealing 3b in the 9th of a one run game is not a smart move.

"The casual joining of the two players as if they are equally bad problems is damned sloppy, I don't care if you are Jeff Blair."

I agree. Rios is slightly overpaid and Wells has an all-time bad contract. Not comparable in the least. Cito did screw up yesterday. Hill had about what, a 30% chance of getting a hit against Lidge? You'd have to think that Wells would have at least a 50% chance to hit a deep-enough flyball or get a hit.  Having McDonald run was ludicrous. This was not Crawford or Upton. McDonald has medicore speed and the risk of him getting caught was simply not worth it.  The guy had only stolen 3rd base 5 times in his entire career. Anyway, it was somewhat the fault of the horrible lineup construction anyway. If the Jays had Lind or even Rolen hitting after Hill instead of Wells, the inning likely plays out differently.