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Brian Dopirak had a big day at the plate for Las Vegas and Aaron Mathews had a couple of key hits as Las Vegas squeaked by Salt Lake. New Britain dropped both games of a doubleheader. There were also victories by Dunedin, Lansing and the GCL Blue Jays, as Auburn lost again.

Salt Lake 7 @ Las Vegas 8Boxscore

Randy Ruiz had a rare off-day at the plate, with an 0-5, but his year-to-date is still deserving of a promotion based on on-field performance alone and ignoring other factors. Not to worry though as Brian Dopirak picked up the slack with a 3-4 night. One of Dopirak’s three hits was a 2-run 2-out homer in the bottom of the seventh that scored Travis Snider and broke up a 5-5 tie. Dopirak’s homer gave Las Vegas a lead they would not relinquish, but three consecutive singles by JP Arencibia, Kevin Howard and Aaron Mathews gave Las Vegas an insurance that would turn out to be very important when Salt Lake scored two in the top of the eighth. Snider was 2-3 with a double, a homer, 2 runs, 2 RBI and a walk. Howard and Mathews each had two hits, as did Howie Clark and Angel Sanchez. Mathews had 4 RBI, with a 3-run homer in the fourth to go along with the key single in the seventh.

Fabio Castro started for the 51s and had another serviceable, but not outstanding, start. He surrendered 9 hits and three walks over 7 innings. Salt Lake touched him for five runs, four earned, as Castro struck out five. Brian Wolfe allowed a run to score over 0.2 innings and left two runners on base for Sean Stidfole. Stidfole escaped the inning after allowing one of the two runners to reach home. Bubbie Buzachero struck out two of the three batters he faced as he picked up his fifth save.

New Hampshire 2 @ Connecticut 3 (7 innings, Game 1)Boxscore

The Fisher Cats lost a pair of 3-2 games to the Connecticut Defenders during a Saturday doubleheader. Troy Cate made his first appearance for the Fisher Cats and went 5.1 innings. Cate struck out three and allowed two runs on four hits and a walk. Cate took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the sixth and after retiring the first batter allowed Eddy Martinez-Esteve to reach on a walk. Danny Farquhar came in to preserve the lead, but after getting another out he was touched for consecutive doubles that scored two runs and gave Connecticut a 3-2 lead.

New Hampshire had six hits during the game. Brad Emaus and Brian Jeroloman were each 1-for-3 with a run scored. Jonathan Diaz and Todd Donovan were each 1-for-2. Donovan had New Hampshire’s only RBI – the other run scored on a wild pitch – and he also threw out a runner at home plate. David Cooper had two hits, but also had two errors at first base.

New Hampshire 2 @ Connecticut 3 (7 innings, Game 2)Boxscore

If you thought the first loss was painful then you probably won’t want to read any further. New Hampshire took a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh only to see Connecticut score twice in the bottom of the last inning to win the game. The Fisher Cats scored twice off Madison Bumgarner in the fifth inning. For the second time in the day New Hampshire had the same number of hits as Connecticut, but in this game it was eight. Todd Donovan and Brad Emaus each had a pair of hits. Emaus had the key hit off Bumgarner with a 2-run 2-out homer that scored Donovan. Emaus also drew a walk. David Cooper had a double and Adam Calderone, Al Quintanta and Darin Mastroianni each had singles. Mastroianni and Donovan each stole two bases.

Nathan Starner went 3 innings and gave up a lone run. Starner surrendered four hits, two walks and also hit a batter. Leon Boyd threw 2 scoreless innings and then new Fisher Cat Sean Smith also had a scoreless frame. Edgar Estanga gave up a single to begin the bottom of the seventh and then turned the ball over to Zach Dials. The next batter reached on a bunt single and then the next one grounded to Dials, who threw the runner out at third on what I assume was a failed bunt attempt. However, a walk loaded the bases and a second walk forced in a run to tie the game. Dials then allowed a walkoff single that doomed the Fisher Cats to drop the twin bill.

Dunedin 9 @ Palm Beach 3Boxscore

Vincent Bongiovanni gave up a pair of runs over 6 innings. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out three as Palm Beach got six hits off Bongiovanni. Daniel DeLucia raised his low ERA as he gave up a run over 2 innings and increased it to 0.98. DeLucia did not have a good outing as he allowed three hits and three walks and Palm Beach left five runners on base over his two frames. Dumas Garcia threw a scoreless bottom of the ninth.

There were plenty of similar lines across Dunedin’s lineup, so it makes it easy to quickly run over what most of the batters did. Raul Barron and Kevin Ahrens were each 0-4 with a walk. Jesus Gonzalez and Luis Sanchez were each 1-4 with a walk. Gonzalez had a double and RBI while Sanchez scored a run. Jonathan Jaspe was 1-5 with a 3-run home run. Brad McElroy, Moises Sierra and Matt Liuzza each had a single and a double. Liuzza walked twice, drove in two runs and scored twice. McElroy had a walk, 2 RBI and a run scored and Sierra had two runs scored and a walk. Adam Loewen was 2-5 with a double, a home run and a pair of runs scored.

Kane County 3 @ Lansing 8Boxscore

Henderson Alvarez went 5 innings and only gave up a run. Alvarez allowed eight hits but didn’t surrender a run and struck out seven. Yorman Mayora pitched 3 innings of 3-hit ball, allowing two runs, one earned. Frank Gailey pitched a scoreless ninth.

Some of the usually dormant bats for Lansing came alive yesterday in a display at the plate that must have pleased Lansing fans. Every starter but Mark Sobolewski reached base. Johermyn Chavez and Michael McDade each went 1-4 with a single, which paled in comparison to some of their other teammates. Antonio Jiminez only had one hit, but he made his count with a solo homer. Jon Talley had a hit, a walk and two runs scored while Balbino Fuenmayor was 2-4 with a pair of triples, a pair of runs and a pair of RBI. Tyler Pastornicky didn’t have a hit, but he walked three times. Kenny Wilson was 2-4 as the leadoff hitter and Brian Van Kirk was 2-4 with a double, a home run and 4 RBI.

Auburn 5 @ State College 8Boxscore

Scott Gracey pitched 4.2 innings and gave up five runs, four earned, on seven hits. Gracey settled down a bit after giving up three runs before he retired a single batter. Unfortunately, Auburn was down 4-0 after 2 innings and would never really get back in the game. Willy Mendez gave up two runs in his inning and David Slovak was touchd for another run in 1.1 frames. Only Steven Turnball escaped untouched, striking out two batters in a scoreless inning.

Ryan Goins had a double and a run scored, while Ryan Schimpf was held hitless but drew a walk. Sean Ochinko and Wellinton Ramirez were each 2-5 with a double. Ramirez scored twice and Ochinko scored and had an RBI. The best night at the plate belonged to Lance Durham, who was 2-4 with a double, a home run, a walk, a run and 3 RBI. Bradley Glenn and Marcus Brisker added hits, while Eric Eiland went 0-4 and saw his average drop to .203.

GCL Tigers 2 @ GCL Blue Jays 4Boxscore

A three-run bottom of the eighth propelled the GCL Blue Jays to a 4-2 victory over the GCL Tigers. Yudelmis Hernandez singled and Jonathan Fernandez came in to run for him. A sacrifice bunt by Oliver Dominguez advanced him to second and he went to third on Michael Crouse’s single. A sac fly by Gustavo Pierre tied the game and Crouse smartly went to second on the throw home. Carlos Perez doubled him home and he came around to score on a John Roberts single. The GCL Jays had nine hits, nearly half of which came from Perez who had a 4-4 game.

Sam Strickland only allowed one hit over 6.1 innings. Unfortunately, that one hit was a solo homer and Strickland allowed another run in large part due to three walks. Nestor Molina pitched 2.2 scoreless innings to pick up the victory and bring the GCL Blue Jays within one game of a .500 record.

Three Stars:
3rd Star – Carlos Perez, 4-4, R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 6 TB
2nd Star – Brian Van Kirk, 2-4, R, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 6 TB
1st Star – Brian Dopirak, 3-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, 6 TB

The Heartbreak Twin Bill | 31 comments | Create New Account
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92-93 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#203901) #
FREE BRIAN DOPIRAK!
Jays2010 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#203903) #

I cannot see how Kevin Millar is still on this roster; yes, FREE BRIAN DOPIRAK!

It will be interesting to see if anyone considers claiming Overbay on waivers in August; it's a longshot, yes, but he has some respectable numbers, a high walk total and plus defence. With only one year left on his contract, will anyone bite? If JP (or the new GM) wanted to move him in the offseason, I have to believe someone would take him if the Jays ate, for example, $2 million. A one year $5 million deal for Overbay seems like a decent deal to me, though I guess it depends on how the market shapes up.

As much as EE's defence is a MASSIVE downgrade from Rolen's, his bat, at 26 year's old, still has very nice potential. I think he has a good chance to outproduce Rolen offensively through 2010. And replacing Millar with Dopirak and eventually Snider with Inglett could really solidify the DH position. The Jays could easily have above average production from 8 offensive positions the last 2 months (and Barajas/Chavez can 'hover' somewhere around average) if they were willing to punt Millar...

Alvarez's last 8 starts: 43.2 innings with a 42:6 strikeout to walk ratio. He is coming around nicely.

Hodgie - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#203904) #

Thomas, unless there was a small transaction at the trade deadline that everyone missed, I think the FisherCats are still located in New Hampshire, not New Britain.

Thomas - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#203905) #

Thomas, unless there was a small transaction at the trade deadline that everyone missed, I think the FisherCats are still located in New Hampshire, not New Britain.

Well, with all the Halladay rumours and the Rolen trade of course most people missed that transaction.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#203906) #
Snider is up to .292/.393/.583.  Even when you let the air out of the statistics, that will play.
tstaddon - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#203907) #
Terrific to see Snider scorching AAA. Here's betting the next time he comes up, it's to stay. I'd also really like to see Brian Dopirak and Angel Sanchez called up soon; Dopirak more or less immediately, Sanchez perhaps in September.

I wonder, too, if any thought's been given in the organization to giving Rios a chance to establish himself as a leadoff hitter. Assuming Scutaro is resigned, that would give the Jays a nice combination of speed and OBP at the top of the lineup (Rios and Hill have comparable OBP numbers) while allowing Hill to hit closer to the middle of the order. Consider:

Rios
Scutaro
Lind
Hill
Snider
Wells
Overbay
Encarnacion
Barajas (or replacement catcher)

Pretty dangerous looking group to me. Even if Snider gets off to a slow start or Wells struggles, there are bottom-third handicaps in place in the persons of Overbay/Encarnacion.
ramone - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#203909) #
There is some serious speed at the top of the Lansing batting order, Wilson now with 25 and Pastornicky with an even 50 stolen bases on the year.  Nice to see in the Jays system.  It will be interesting where Justin Jackson and Pastornicky end up playing next year, I see them both at Dunedin, perhaps splitting time?  Any thoughts on that?
TamRa - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#203910) #
I'm not sure how you put together our specific lineup but I do think it's at least possible that if the Jays would resign themselves to the potential Rios never hits for power consistantly it might take some pressure off him and he could just do what come natural. One way to do that might be lead-off - unless he screws himself up thinking about the OBP instead of the SLG.

Speaking of which, taking a cue from Mike Wilner I checked something out - this is Rios 162 games average for his stats since Opening Day 2006:

.281 - .341 - .475 - .815 - 113 OPS+
44 doubles, 7 triples, 20 homers, 89 RBI, 25 steals, 302 TB

Now, here's everyone's darling Carl Crawford over the same period:

.303 - .350 - .456 - .806 - 110 OPS+
27 - 13 - 15 - 84 - 58 - 297

And my guess is Rios rates out better on defense but laying that aside - a big portion (most?) of Jays fans think Rios is a mediocre performer who's overpaid, while most of those same people would crap themselves if the Jays went out and signed or traded for Carl Crawford.

Yet they are essentially the same guy. Except Crawford steals more bases.

This is the sort of thing that makes me think some Jays fans over-compensate against homerism.


Chuck - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#203916) #

Yet they are essentially the same guy.

I think it is arguable that this is not so.

Rios struggled at ages 23 and 24, appeared to "get it" at ages 25 and 26, and in the two years since, has been trending downwards (OPS+ 85, 84, 120, 122, 111, 92).

Save for his crappy age-26 season in 2008, Crawford has been trending upwards every year from age 20 on (OPS+ of 77, 81, 105, 111, 113, 117, 87, 119).

What will age 29 bring for Rios? Is there any reason to feel confident that it will be equivalent to what age 28 will bring for Crawford?

Comparing their stats from the start of 2006 includes a Rios (OPS+ of 122) we haven't seen in a while and includes a Crawford (OPS+ of 87) that is clearly out of line with his established level. And that's the jerry rigging that is required to make these players look the same.

If I recall correctly, Wilner's argument in likening these two was by looking at their career numbers. This conveniently ignored the fact that Crawford was in the majors at age 20 while Rios didn't get there until age 23. Wilner is obviously no fool but he often counteracts the relentless negativity he deals with by overstating matters in defense of the oft maligned Rios and Wells.

Jays2010 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#203918) #

Wilner is obviously no fool but he often counteracts the relentless negativity he deals with by overstating matters in defense of the oft maligned Rios and Wells.

I completely agree. I remember once someone was asking why Rolen wasn't swapped with Wells and inserted into the cleanup spot (b4 Rolen got his shot hitting 4th). The caller said that Wells can't hit with RISP and Rolen would be better in an RBI spot...and Wilner countered with "Wells has more RBIs than Rolen"...which was true...because Wells had hitters above him who were getting on base while Wells could not get on base for Rolen to drive him in...

I'll still take Rios as a CF over Crawford as a LF. I have no issue with Rios' contract if he plays CF because he should improve to at least an .800 to .850 OPS with considerable upside and elite defence at a premium position. Not to mention 30+ SB's if he gets the green light to run. Wells on the other hand...

Olerud363 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#203920) #

Chucks comparison allready discounted career numbers by doing the comparison since 2006. 

The love of Crawford represents everything that is wrong with the our franchise.   What I mean is the love of Crawford shows we don't even know whats wrong.  In 2002 JP promised money ball.  The teams failures isn't because money ball doesn't work.  It is because JP failed to bring us money ball.

Some people read Richard Griffin and that type and enjoy the backlash against money ball.  Good ol Tampa Bay, provin' em wrong winning old school with defense and that jack rabbit Crawford. 

The biggest difference between Toronto and Tampa Bay is that Tampa Bay is much more patient.  They draw significantly more walks and have a little more power.  Tampa Bay is proof that money ball does work.

In my mind Crawford and Rios are the same and any apparent trends are just luck.  But if Crawford really is trending up it is because of an uptick in walk rate.  It is because of moeny ball.

Tampa Bays success is because they successfully implemented moneyball.  JPs failure is that he never managed to implement the money ball concepts.  I just hope that the higher ups in the organization don't give up on money ball, but instead find someone who can implement it properly.

Jays2010 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#203921) #

Chucks comparison allready discounted career numbers by doing the comparison since 2006. 

The love of Crawford represents everything that is wrong with the our franchise.   What I mean is the love of Crawford shows we don't even know whats wrong.  In 2002 JP promised money ball.  The teams failures isn't because money ball doesn't work.  It is because JP failed to bring us money ball.

Some people read Richard Griffin and that type and enjoy the backlash against money ball.  Good ol Tampa Bay, provin' em wrong winning old school with defense and that jack rabbit Crawford. 

The biggest difference between Toronto and Tampa Bay is that Tampa Bay is much more patient.  They draw significantly more walks and have a little more power.  Tampa Bay is proof that money ball does work.

In my mind Crawford and Rios are the same and any apparent trends are just luck.  But if Crawford really is trending up it is because of an uptick in walk rate.  It is because of moeny ball.

Tampa Bays success is because they successfully implemented moneyball.  JPs failure is that he never managed to implement the money ball concepts.  I just hope that the higher ups in the organization don't give up on money ball, but instead find someone who can implement it properly.

Having not read Moneyball...does it say anywhere to tank for ten years? Because there is NO way the Rays do this without that. None. What exactly have they shown they can do that cannot be attributable to having a crappy team for 10 years, attaining high picks, selling off players at the deadline every year and having the unlimited roster space to find hidden gems such as Pena?

Now, I definately give the Rays a lot of credit...but this "credit" is directly linked to their ten years of losing. And I will give them much more credit if they can sustain this level of play for the next few years because it looks like Crawford, Kazmir and perhaps Pena may be moved for financial reasons. The Rays will now have to rely on their "strong farm system" to see what it can do because other than Beckham, all of their high picks are now in the majors. So let's see if they can sustain this in the AL East. Let's see if Brignac can turn his top 20 BA ranking from a couple of years ago into something productive in the majors. Let's see if they can hold off not having Kazmir (not like he is doing much this year anyway), Crawford and Pena. Bartlett will be an FA in a couple of years as well. The Rays are a very good team - top 5 in the majors without question...but due to financial reasons I would not be surprised if they have "peaked" depending on how much talent they have to lose...

Olerud363 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#203924) #

so what happened to Pittsburg, KC??  They've lost 10 years in a row too....

So your saying the difference is the first round picks??  Longoria, Upton, are the only 1st round everday players and Nieman is the only 1st round pitcher making an impact right now.  That could change quickly though if Price puts it together.   Longoria, Upton are about the same as our mid 1st round picks Hill, Rios this year.  Nieman, Price are close in value to Romero, Snider.   I don't see that Tampa bay has a huge advantage over us because of the high draft picks. 

Yes they turned a high round pick, Delmon Young, into Garza...  However at various times similar high round picks Rios and Wells had as much trade value as Delmon Young, and now the trade value is gone.  Tampa has Garza, we have a 200 million dollar bill.  Decisions like this are what differentiates Tampa from us.  Not 10 years of losing.

Unlimited Roster space??  We could of easily chosen Carlos Pena over Frank Thomas.  

zeppelinkm - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#203925) #
I don't think he means the difference in how they got to where they are, but simply the critical difference in how the teams perform right now. Tampa does get on base better than the Jays. They also hit for a bit more power. Their BA's are virtually identical.
TamRa - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#203926) #
Comparing their stats from the start of 2006 includes a Rios (OPS+ of 122) we haven't seen in a while and includes a Crawford (OPS+ of 87) that is clearly out of line with his established level. And that's the jerry rigging that is required to make these players look the same.

Actually, the previous three years is the STANDARD by which most every stat comparison is made. Go to ESPN and you will find there's even an option on the drop down list for a three year split.

So I CLEARLY rigged the outcome by selecting the STANDARD split, right?


If I recall correctly, Wilner's argument in likening these two was by looking at their career numbers. This conveniently ignored the fact that Crawford was in the majors at age 20 while Rios didn't get there until age 23. Wilner is obviously no fool but he often counteracts the relentless negativity he deals with by overstating matters in defense of the oft maligned Rios and Wells.

So, on the one hand, a three year split was jerry-rigging, but on the other hand career numbers wouldn't be proper either?


TamRa - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#203927) #
Unlimited Roster space??  We could of easily chosen Carlos Pena over Frank Thomas. 

Sure.

So could every other team. Even the Rays signed Hee Seop Choi before Pena in the same offseason and the only reason Pena made the team was because someone (Greg Norton I think) got hurt at the end of spring training (Pena had been optioned and was recalled in light of the injury)

So clearly the Rays were talent recognition geniuses who KNEW Pena would be a key to their team over the next few years....right?

or...just maybe...that triped over him out of sheer luck.

ayjackson - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#203928) #
Snider and Dopirak went back-to-back in the first inning tonight in Vegas.  MiLB Gameday had the Snider bomb clearing the fence in straight-away centre (433') by a considerable measure.  Yummy.
LouisvilleJayFan - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#203929) #
Snider and Dopirak went back-to-back in the first inning tonight in Vegas.  MiLB Gameday had the Snider bomb clearing the fence in straight-away centre (433') by a considerable measure.  Yummy.

If one or both of those guys does not make the BA Prospect Hot List this Friday, I'm going to cancel my subscription...
TamRa - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#203930) #
Speaking of comparisons:

*The Jays have the third most hits in the AL as of this moment (42 more than TB).
*They are #1 in doubles (24 more than TB)
*Sixth in HR (only seven fewer than #3 TB)
*#2 in Total Bases
*#6 in slugging (.014 behind TB)
*#8 in OBP (.016 behind TB)
*#6 in walks (which isn't bad but it's 81 behind #2 TB which, as mentioned above, is a key difference)
*#1 in fewest strikeouts! (The #13 Rays have almost 200 more)
*#10 in stolen bases (56 as opposedto the Rays 142!)

(Toronto didn't hit well in July but TB hit worse in July)

On the pitching side, the Jays are #5 in team ERA (just a hair ahead of the Rays which is remarkable when you compare the stability of their staff to the chaos of ours)
Among starters, the Jays are #4 and the Rays are #8 in ERA

They are also virtually tied in BAA against both overall and as starters/relievers

Jays are third in pitching strikeouts (TB is 8th)

In July the Jays were 3rd overall in ERA (3.81 to the Rays 4.58)

Once again, the results add up to less than the sum of the parts...


ayjackson - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#203931) #
I think Snider would be ineligible for the BA hot list, given his tenure in the majors.
Jays2010 - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#203932) #
By no means do I think that the majority of the lineup will come back, or necessarily should come back...but, if EE can play an average defensive 3B, Scoot is resigned, Barajas (or a comparable) is resigned and Snider fills the LF/DH void this could be a very solid offence (again). Add Dopirak, Bautista, JMac and Chavez to the bench...not bad....probably the 4th (maybe 5th) best offence in the AL East in 2010...but not bad...
Spifficus - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#203933) #

MiLB Gameday had the Snider bomb clearing the fence in straight-away centre (433') by a considerable measure. Yummy.

Jerry Reuss just said that the shot Snider hit last night was a carbon copy, so it's not like these are PCL cheapies.

TamRa - Sunday, August 02 2009 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#203934) #
I wonder if with the increasing pitching depth doesn't make it obvious that we should be trying to get something for David Purcey. His road numbers in AAA are just fine, I would think that if the Jays are seeing him as pretty far down the list that there are some teams (NL teams in particular) that might still see him as good enough for there rotation.

Seems like maybe we should be looking to see if we can turn him into a young SS or catcher who can play for us next year.

For instance, the D'Backs have seen Montero take the starting job from Chris Snyder - would Purcey be something like the right price to acquire Snyder?
Just as an example.


Looking around the league, I'm pessimistic about SS. as much as I realize Scutero will surely regress, he still may be the best buy to fit our needs out there even at an inflated price.

As for 3B, now that I've been reminded of Figgins I can't get that idea out of my head.

Of course, if we're going low budget all this speculation is useless.


Noah - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#203937) #
I'm sitting at Cashman Field for tonight's 51s game. Offensive domination by the home squad, Vegas leads 14-6 in the Bottom of the 6th. Homeruns by Snider, Dopirak (back to back in the first), howard, and clark. Very impressed with snider who also got an outfield assist at home. Dopirak looks good at the plate but his defence at 1st is very poor. Arencibia has also looked so-so at the plate. Davis Romero pitched and got hit pretty hartd through 4 innings.
The_Game - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#203938) #
2 HR for Dopirak tonight....and we're stuck with Millar batting cleanup on Tuesday night against Pettitte.
Spifficus - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#203939) #

as much as I realize Scutero will surely regress, he still may be the best buy to fit our needs out there even at an inflated price.

Given the derth of quality shortstops around, we might not get the opportunity to see up close whether he'll regress or not. KC, StL (assuming LaRussa loses it over Lugo's defense), the Reds, Giants, Tigers, Astros, and the Red Sox could all be shopping for an improvement / replacement at SS.

As for Purcey, it's going to be interesting to see what the organization does with him the rest of the way. They might use him to give Cecil a rest in September. Not sure he'd be worth much at this point without finishing out the schedule strong. Of course, if he has options left (I can't remember), he might help provide depth to at least deal someone a little more desirable.

Not sure if it's a fast gun in Vegas, but it had one of Janssen's fastballs at 96. It had brief thoughts of all the power righties in our bullpen flashing through my mind... Roenicke, League both mid-upper 90's, Frasor and Accardo sitting about 94, and now, could Janssen be back to low 90s? Looking at his velocity charts on fangraphs.com, He was sitting low-mid 90s in the first and last third of 2007, but the middle third found him mostly below 90. It'd be very nice to add a control freak with a legit fastball to those first four (or in place of one).

Oh, and the Angels have Brandon Wood back at SS... again. I'd love to know what their plan is, because I can't discern any real patterns at this point.

Chuck - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#203940) #

Yet they are essentially the same guy.

Your (and Wilner's) assertion was that Rios and Crawford are the same guy. Looking at both career numbers and 3-year splits, yes, their numbers are extremely close. But I don't believe that paints a very clear picture.

Crawford's OPS+ starting age 20: 77, 81, 105, 111, 113, 117, 87, 116
Rios's OPS+ starting at age 23: 85, 84, 120, 122, 111, 92

Crawford's career number are in 4500 PAs. Rios's are in just 3300 PAs. By age 28, Rios will have played 6 seasons, clearing an OPS+ of 100 just 3 times. By age 27, Crawford will have played 8 seasons, clearing an OPS+ of 100 5 times.

Crawford's career numbers are hurt by the fact that he was in the majors so early. He was in the majors at age 20. Rios was in A ball.

Now, even granting that their careers have been more similar than many might think, does the position that they have BEEN the same guy mean that they are STILL the same guy? Here is where I look at the trending. One guy is heading in the wrong direction. The other guy isn't. It didn't always look that way, clearly. Once Rios developed power, he seemed headed for a level beyond Crawford's grasp. But not any more.

I certainly agree that Carl Crawford's reputation exceeds his talent level. And I agree that when Rios was good, he was underrated. But neither of these have anything to do with the question "who is currently the better player?".

lexomatic - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#203942) #
<i>For instance, the D'Backs have seen Montero take the starting job from Chris Snyder - would Purcey be something like the right price to acquire Snyder?
Just as an example.</i>

i would totally do this trade. snyder was decent power good patience (low average) with good defense for awhile. not sure what his price tag is but i would feel MUCH more confident with him than barajas.


<i>"There is some serious speed at the top of the Lansing batting order, Wilson now with 25 and Pastornicky with an even 50 stolen bases on the year. Nice to see in the Jays system. It will be interesting where Justin Jackson and Pastornicky end up playing next year, I see them both at Dunedin, perhaps splitting time? Any thoughts on that?"</i>


depending on jackson's injury (didn't someone say he had one in a pervious thread?) this may not be an issue. if jackson is rehabbing then you can put them at different levels. neither one has hit especially well, so i think if they're both healthy you let them fight it out, and whoever does worse plays at lansing. it might hurt their confidence a bit but competition might also work well.

i would probably want to schedule some specific batting time for pastornicky in the off season, and maybe try and work on leadoff type skills (anyone for trying to see if ricky will do a special coaching assignment?) something like a one week leadoff camp. working on jumps, reading pitchers and pitch recognition. then maybe another 1 week hitting camp.
i don't see pastornicky making it if he can't hit a little more, but his speed and on bass skills are encouraging. working on refining those (patience, base-stealing) is important. but also helping him to learn to hit to his strengths. he doesn't look like he's ever gonna have power, but right now his numbers suggest he gets the bat knocked out of his hands. the only player i can think of recently that had a career hitting like that is walt weiss. but he hit a tiny bit for average in the minors.

seriously the code on this page is such a pain.. i can't ever seem to get any formatting to work. ever.
Olerud363 - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#203943) #

Pastornicky is doing great for a 19 year old short stop.  It is considered good for a 19 year old to just hold their own in full season league.  Really he should be in advanced a next year.  Unless a player REALLY struggles, like Ahrens it is ussually a good idea to move them up. 

I understand the concerns...  but lets see what happens in the next couple of years.  Players gain alot of strength between 19 and 21, and while Pastornicky will never be a power guy he may gain enough strength so the bat is 'no longer knocked out of his hands' so to say.  Alex Rios had worse power stats at the age of 19...   Obviously entirely different builds.  But given normal development between 19 and 21 every reason to have hope in Pastornicky.

 

TamRa - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#203950) #
Given the derth of quality shortstops around, we might not get the opportunity to see up close whether he'll regress or not. KC, StL (assuming LaRussa loses it over Lugo's defense), the Reds, Giants, Tigers, Astros, and the Red Sox could all be shopping for an improvement / replacement at SS.

What works for us here is arbitration.

I can definately see a potential scenario where none of those teams will give up there first or second round pick in order to sign Scoot....leaving him to potentially accept the offer of arbitration.

But in any case, with so few good options and so many potential buyers, it reinforces the idea that whoever signs him will have to realize they are overpaying - including the Jays

Now, if we could find a way to deal for Aybar/Wood....or Hardy (who's having a bad year) or Brignac or maybe Alexi Ramirez....by all means do so.

But I don't see a lot of good matches....might be able to send some pitching for Hardy...
Moe - Monday, August 03 2009 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#203959) #
I can definately see a potential scenario where none of those teams will give up there first or second round pick in order to sign Scoot....leaving him to potentially accept the offer of arbitration.

In principle I agree, but for some teams on the list, it will only be a 2nd round pick. And if a club signs another FA, Scutoro likely will likely be the lower ranked on and only cost a 2nd/3rd round pick. So while it is a possibility that we get an Orlando Carbrera situation, I don't think we can count on it.
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