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Features Pinch Hit: AL Cy Young Race
Brian W looks at the Cy Young contenders.


It seems that lately the media has written off Roy Halladay in the Cy Young race, with Zach Greinke the clear favourite.  Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez get some consideration, but generally it seems to be a race between Greinke and C.C. Sabathia.  When I took a quick look at Greinke's numbers, something jumped out at me.  First, a look at the standard stats for the contenders.

                GS      IP      H       ER      BB      SO      W-L     ERA      CG   SO
Greinke         29      205.1   177     50      42      216     13-8    2.19     6    3
Halladay        29      214.0   214     72      30      189     15-9    3.03     7    2
Hernandez       30      207.1   175     58      63      193     15-5    2.52     1    1
Verlander       31      210.0   189     78      57      239     16-8    3.34     3    1
Sabathia        31      213.1   184     81      58      178     17-7    3.42     2    1

From these numbers, it seems Greinke is a runaway leader.  The only real knock against him is the lack of wins, but playing for KC, that's expected.  Sabathia will likely pick up some votes from people who rely on the win-loss record when deciding, especially if he reaches 20 wins.  No problem so far.  Now let's look into the opposition these pitchers have faced.

                Opp Win%    >500    <500    NY/BOS  OPS
Greinke         .485        11      18      0       .754
Halladay        .531        22      7       8       .776
Hernandez       .516        20      10      1       .759
Verlander       .502        16      15      3       .762
Sabathia        .487        15      16      3       .752

Despite pitching for the Royals and thus not getting to pitch against them, Greinke still has the lowest quality of opposition faced (Sabathia is surprisingly close).  Somehow Greinke has managed to go the entire season without ever facing the Yankees or the Red Sox.  On the other hand, the Jays have been altering their rotation to get Halladay to face those two teams as much as possible (5 against NY, 3 against Boston).  None of these pitchers comes anywhere near the level of opposition faced by Halladay.  Despite playing for a team that is far below .500 and facing the best teams in the league Doc is still third in ERA and has put up a 15-9 record.  To me, that deserves Cy Young consideration.  Will he win?  Of course not, and to be honest, I'm not sure if he should.  How much should Greinke be punished for playing against bad teams?  He's done as much as could be asked of him and might have done just as well had he faced the top teams more often.  On the other hand, Halladay would likely have won 20 games pitching against the teams that Greinke has faced.

I haven't been able to find a pitching statistic similar to support neutral win-loss record which attempts to incorporate quality of opposition. If any Box reader knows of a stat that does this I'd love to see the numbers for these pitchers.

What do you think?  Does Greinke's amazing ERA give him the trophy?  Does CC win 20 and take the Cy?  Or should there be a campaign to give Doc the recognition he deserves?
Posted by Matthew E on Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 08:42 PM EDT.
Pinch Hit: AL Cy Young Race | 22 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
fozzy - Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#206228) #
Wasn't this one of the main arguements against Cliff Lee winning the Cy last year, that the quality of opposition Halladay faced far exceeded that of Lee? I seem to remember a lot of discussion on BBTF about the subject, which certainly gave some people pause to just handing it to Lee.

Another thing I would be interested to know if how often these pitchers stack up against the other team's ace; it seems (though I haven't checked) that Halladay is often lined up with the opposition ace or #2 (Sergio Mitre excepted), which makes what he's doing in the W-L column even more impressive.

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zeppelinkm - Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#206229) #

I did up an excel sheet last year that outlined the quality of opposition Doc faced versus that which Lee faced. I think it was the next day BBTF posted an article displaying the same thing using some different stats.

I forget which site it is, but there is a site that allows you to sort pitchers by the quality of their average opponent OPS (which is shown above...). Doc was #2 in terms of quality of the opposition faced last year, and it certainly appears he is again this year. For Cy Young candidates or not.  FYI, Lee ranked 73rd out of pitchers who threw 120 innings or more.  Also, Lee received 5.86 RS a game whereas Doc averaged 4.75. (Still have the excel sheet saved...) ANDDDDDDD finally, the quality of the starting pitching Doc faced was also superior to that which Lee did.

Anyways, as Brian has shown us once again, Doc rules.

 

 

 

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Jim - Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#206230) #
Still looks like Greinke to me.  The average batter is clearly worse, but it's an ERA that is almost an entire run lower.  This with the 'defense' that Kansas City fields.  The h/9 is ridiculous. 
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zeppelinkm - Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#206231) #

I'd probably vote it something like Greinke, Felix, Doc myself.

However, it's really hard to say. The Yankees and Red Sox are not forgiving offences to play against, and Zack hasn't had to face them once. Although sometimes I tend to think when a good pitcher is pitching, he determines his own fate on most nights. A good pitcher can normally shut down any offence. Ironically, Felix Hernandez's worst start of the year was against the Blue Jays, (5.1 and 7 ER) and he pitched well against the Red Sox (7 innings 3 runs).

Also, correction to my above post, it wasn't BBTF it was Joe Sheehan who posted a similiar article the next day last year.

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Chuck - Thursday, September 17 2009 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#206232) #

While opposition winning percentage is good to consider, at least in terms of its impact on W-L record, I believe that opposition offensive ability (as opposed to overall ability) is much more meaningful.

For instance, while Detroit is a 500+ team, their R/G is below league average and that makes them an attractive team for Greinke to get to face. True, he has to face them with KC's pitiful offense, but at least he can put up good numbers while losing.

All things considered, I'd give the award to Greinke, but I'd say he's a stretch to win it, even he gets to 16 wins. If Sabathia can get to 20, the voters may feel backed into a corner.

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James W - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#206238) #

When I read the word "contenders" in the first sentence, I scoffed.  Before seeing any of the following paragraphs, I'd assumed that Greinke winning the Cy Young Award was a foregone conclusion.  Unlike last year, the "Doc has faced actual competition" differences don't seem so glaring; plus having watched the Jays in August, it feels like Halladay is barely in the discussion for the award.

I appreciate the article Brian, good stuff!

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Chuck - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#206240) #

One thing that Greinke has going for him (despite the numbers, of course) is the narrative. His personal story has been much discussed and will be thrown into the mix. Hopefully it will help offset the bias against low-win totals.

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Matthew E - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#206241) #
As a rough measure of a pitcher's quality/contributions, what does everyone think about IP x ERA+?
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AWeb - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#206242) #
Grienke has also suppressed opposing OPS more than Halladay - that is, Grienke has a .615 OPS against, Halladay a .678, which means that Grienke is lowering the OPS against further. I just don't see it as that close this year, and I think the voters might pleasantly surprise me by agreeing. Lincecum beat out Webb last year, despite winning 4 fewer games. But C.C. winning would essentially be a replay of 2005 in the AL (Colon wins 21, beats out Rivera and  Santana), right down to the body type of the winner.

Flipping through some leaderboards, I see Scott Baker (Twins) is second in the league for OBP against (Grienke first, Halladay third).  That one would've taken a few guesses.  If there weren't a few good choices starting, Rivera would merit a lifetime achievement Cy Young- don't look now, but after once again struggling early, he's having one of the best years of his career. Again. I hate the Yankees and their suspicious lack of mid-to-late 30s dropoffs.
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Mick Doherty - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#206243) #

I'm not usually one to promote a reliever for the CYA, but in a year when no starter has all that obvious a case -- nobody will win 20, the only guy with a stellar ERA won't even win 15! -- could the writers decide to give a Lifetime Achievment Cy Young Award to the greatest closer ever to play the game, having at least arguably the best season of his career in a new bandbox stadium? (Though to be fair, 10 of his past 13 seasons all have "arguably his best" discussion merit.)

Mariano Rivera, 2009 Cy Young Award for meritorious achievement?

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John Northey - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#206245) #
While I wouldn't mind the 'lifetime Cy' for Rivera it is interesting to look at his career so far. 
  • This year his ERA+ is 268 - he has 2 years with better, in his age 35 and 38 seasons. 
  • His K/9 is 9.7 - he has 2 years with better, age 38 and 26. 
  • His BB/9 is 1.7 - he has 5 better seasons, all from age 31 on
  • His HR/9 is 0.9 - his worst ever as a reliever (as a starter his rookie season it was 1.5)
  • His H/9 is 6.3 - 4 seasons are better, his best that age 38 season
Last year was his best by many measures (ERA+, BB/9, H/9, 2nd for K/9).  In 2001 and 2004 he had 50+ saves ('just' 40 so far this year) and those years he had 0 votes and a third place finish respectively.

Should be an interesting vote.  Always fun to try to guess what the media will do each year.
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Chuck - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#206246) #

Mariano Rivera, 2009 Cy Young Award for meritorious achievement?

Boo!

Let Rivera and Jeter earn their lifetime achievement awards via some other avenue (like HoF voting).

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Thomas - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#206249) #
There is no such thing as a lifetime Cy Young Award. Rivera's won 4 World Series and many division titles. He's going to the Hall of Fame and is justifiably recognized as the best reliever in baseball history. I'm not going to shed any tears if his resume lacks a Cy Young Award. It should go Greinke, Felix, Doc.

The same goes for Jeter and any talk of MVP this year, although at least his case is more compelling than Rivera's.


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Mike Green - Friday, September 18 2009 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#206260) #
It ought to be Greinke quite easily.   It wouldn't surprise me at all if Sabathia won. His gut inspires fear!
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Magpie - Saturday, September 19 2009 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#206263) #
Leaning towards Greinke. Also looking at King Felix.
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electric carrot - Saturday, September 19 2009 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#206265) #
Yeah, where's the love for Felix.  Plays on a team that played games that mattered into August and has the lowest OPS against for any of the contenders for the Cy Young.  Vote for The King.




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TamRa - Saturday, September 19 2009 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#206267) #
It's very close but if I were voting based on those stats, I'd probably go with Felix by a whisker.


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Spifficus - Saturday, September 19 2009 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#206269) #
For me, Safeco neutralizes any other adjustments that may have worked in Hernandez's favor. I wouldn't be able to put anyone ahead of Greinke at this point.
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TamRa - Sunday, September 20 2009 @ 02:56 AM EDT (#206273) #
Can someone check the right source (which I could probably find but don't know off the top of my head) and check the park effects as they apply to each pitcher?

For what it's worth, ERA plus favors Grienke by a significant margin.

But even though I know that Wins are an empty stat, I just can't see a guy with 14 wins getting it.

If he runs off three more wins then maybe it will look a bit better, especially if no one makes it to 20.




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James W - Sunday, September 20 2009 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#206275) #

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Kauffman Stadium appears to be the 5th highest rated park for runs scored, while Safeco's 23rd.  Chock up another point to Greinke.

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Mick Doherty - Sunday, September 20 2009 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#206277) #

If he runs off three more wins then maybe it will look a bit better, especially if no one makes it to 20.

I agree that wins are an "empty" stat, but not to voters. If Texas had not fizzled down the stretch and made the playoffs, you'd have a decent chance that Scooter Feldman would get some CYA attention. He has 17 wins and is scheduled to make three more starts ...

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James W - Tuesday, September 22 2009 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#206359) #
Greinke has now faced Boston, and come through with 6 shutout innings to pick up his 15th win.  I believe the case is closed.
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Pinch Hit: AL Cy Young Race | 22 comments | Create New Account
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