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The Boston Red Sox had a chance to clinch the AL Wild Card slot Tuesday night. Adam Lind had other thoughts.

The Jays slammed six homers in an 8-7 win, Lind clocked three of those longballs by hissownself -- the first Jay to hit three in a single contest since Frank Thomas a while back -- while Ricky Ro picked up his lucky 13th win and Jason Frasor saved his 11th game.

Lind is the second Blue Jay to reach the 35-homer mark in 2009, joining Aaron Hill, who hit his own 36th bomb against Da Sawx.

See now, it's not all bad news!

Adam Lind is pretty good. | 69 comments | Create New Account
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westcoast dude - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#206604) #

Jason Frasor walked the flaming coals of hell with narry a bead of perspiration on his lip: he had 'em all the way.  Adam Lind might even have had more dingers except for an unfortunate errant pitch in the ninth inning.  Aaron Hill's 35th was practically a given, at this point, but Bautista's tenth is a rather pleasant September surprise.  Ricky Romero got the Red Sox monkey off his back and now has a chance to win 14.  A little fine tuning in the bullpen and this team could win it all in 2010; as this roation is going to be deep.  Life is good.

Jays2010 - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#206605) #
Though it would take a pretty nice ending to the year, it is still possible that the Jays beat the Rays in run differential. Would it be a stretch to suggest the Jays are, once again, better than every team in the AL Central and West other than the Angels? If they had kept Rolen and Rios (which they certainly would have if they were in an actual playoff race, not just a pythagorean one), it certainly could have happened...
Mylegacy - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#206606) #
Westcoast dude says  - just above this -

 "A little fine tuning in the bullpen and this team could win it all in 2010; as this roation is going to be deep.  Life is good."

And some people think I'm a Pollyanna. Well WCD and I have one thing in common - we both live on the West Coast. Tonight my beloved Jays played on Buchholz like he was an old drum and this afternoon I was sitting on my balcony looking down into the harbour and watched two cruise ships at anchor while little boats ferried their passengers back and forth to beautiful downtown Nanaimo - as WCD says - between Lind etal and being on the West Coast - "Life is Good."
Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 02:38 AM EDT (#206607) #
So tomorrow Doc goes against the Pawtucket Sox and possibly some slightly hung over vets; to be followed by three games against the reeling Orioles (Purcey, Tallet, Richmond.) Winning three of these final four is a distinct possibility.

Nice for them, but it would screw everything up for me. Which is much more important. See, if the Jays finish 77-85, they won't be the second team in AL history to finish 10 games under .500 while outscoring the opposition. I had a study half-prepared and everything....
Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 02:56 AM EDT (#206608) #
Would it be a stretch to suggest the Jays are, once again, better than every team in the AL Central and West other than the Angels?

I wouldn't want to flatly assert that the Jays were better without actually looking at the four teams relevant to this in more detail. I guess this is where we would begin:

Runs Scored
Minnesota   773
Toronto 772
Texas 762
Detroit 722

It's worth pointing out that Texas lives in the AL West, where there are no truly lousy pitching staffs - i.e. they don't get to hit as often against Baltimore, Cleveland, or Kansas City.

Runs Allowed
Detroit     713
Texas 722
Minnesota 735
Toronto 747

This season, the Dome has played as one of the best pitcher's parks in the AL - the other three teams are all playing in hitter's parks (even Comerica, in 2009). So with that in mind, it's fair to say that Toronto probably has the best offense of these four teams. And the weakest pitching. You could begin the discussion there.

Not that it actually does them any good whatsoever.
TamRa - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#206609) #
I have been assuming maybe we deal Frasor but I'm about ready to write him in ink as next year's closer...

Speaking of next years rotation....if we indulge the possibility the McGowan is back in track, and that Purcey actually has a shot, and listen to Cito's description of who's where so far....

Doc
Marcum
McGowan
Romero
Zep
Listch*
Purcey
Cecil
Richmond
Ray

Not bad...

China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 04:49 AM EDT (#206610) #
WillRain, you forgot about Brad Mills, who should be ready for the majors sometime in 2010.  Despite an injury-plagued 2009 season, his season numbers at Las Vegas weren't bad in the end, especially for a 24-year-old.  He almost made the Jays in spring training in 2009.   Next year, fully recovered from his injuries and with a season at AAA under his belt, he should be knocking on the door of the major leagues at some point in the season.  I agree that Robert Ray should also be on that list, but if you include Ray, you've got to include Mills as well.   By the way, take a look at Mills' last three starts at AAA before his latest injury:   two of his last three starts were shut-outs of 7 and 8 innings, including a magnificent 8-inning 2-hitter in his final start.  In his 3rd-last start, he racked up 11 strikeouts in 7 innings.
FranklyScarlet - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#206611) #
Despite Lind's offensive performance last night ... Hill's year was the topic:

http://www.eagletribune.com/pusports/local_story_273011704.html

AWeb - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#206612) #
On another note, making my strange annual check-in with the Orioles in September....here they go again with 12 losses in a row. The Orioles are a remarkable 98-181 in September and October the past 10 years, a 57-105 pace. And this is with 2004's 19-13 record. Without that strange year, they've been on a 52-110 pace in the final month(s). They are certainly good at maximizing draft position - this is a remarkable run at the second overall draft position, cruising past 3-4 teams in the last two weeks. Basketball teams are wll known for basically throwing games for draft position, are the Orioles quietly pulling that same thing off somehow year after year?  Pittsburgh and KC get all the hype, but the Orioles have managed 12 straight losing seasons themselves now. Since 2000, they've managed to play .450 ball (their basic talent level during these years) in the final month(s) twice, 2004, and 2000 at 14-15.

At least the Jays play out the years like it matters - which it does, since I'm still watching now just like April. The Jays haven't had any more "meaningful" games this time of year than the Orioles in the playoff sense, but they manage to be respectable, and sometimes good even. Thank you Blue Jays for not mailing it in - I'll take watching a team winning games over a possible better draft pick anyday.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#206614) #
Aaron Hill's last few homers have been seriously struck.  While he is among the league leaders in "Just Enough" homers with 12, I now think that the "Davey Johnson, 1973" comparison is unfair. The Hit Tracker page shows a pull hitter with significant oomph. I think that he's going to have a few more seasons of 25+ homers.  Now if he can walk 60 times a season, I will be a happy man.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#206618) #

McGowan's comeback maybe encouraging but we don;t know if the can come back as a major league starter.  Arm strength is often impacted by labrum surgery, and when you add the long layoff that he had, he is still a long way from the 2010 rotation.

Due to his injury and the lack of work for the last 18 months my best expectation for McGowan is to be a major league reliever next season.

By the way I noted last night that Shawn Camp and Jesse Carlson were worried about the Jays lack of success in one run games, they arranged a one-run win to even the scales a little bit.  Well done guys.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#206619) #

The Boston Red Sox had a chance to clinch the AL Wild Card slot Tuesday night. Adam Lind had other thoughts.

And Scooter Feldman continued his final-week meltdown to accommodate da Sawx into the post-season anyway! At least they didn't get to celebrate on the field ...

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#206620) #
Due to his injury and the lack of work for the last 18 months my best expectation for McGowan is to be a major league reliever next season.

Right.  If McGowan is a decent major league reliever in 2010, the Jays ought to be pleased.  I have always felt that he would be better suited to a high-leverage role in the pen in light of his arm troubles and first-rate stuff. 
Dewey - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#206622) #

Ya know, I don't *like* the damned Sox, or their fans either. Youkilis annoys the hell out of me; same with Pedroia.  And when Papelbon threw his “errant pitch” at Lind's elbow last night I nearly lifted my old bones off the sofa and hit him right in the screen.   Really odd, how after three homers, Papelbon loses his control for one pitch. I don't like him either.   Rotten Sox.

Jim - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#206623) #
Can't have Doc throw a complete game tonight.  Lind deserves his payback.  MLB could put an end to this nonsense but they chose not to.
FisherCat - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#206624) #

I have been assuming maybe we deal Frasor but I'm about ready to write him in ink as next year's closer...

I know I'm repeating what I commented last week, but if Frasor is this team's closer on opening day in 2010.  the Jays are in DEEP trouble.  He just never seems comfortable out there in that situation.

My sleeper pick for 2010 Jays' closer...

...DUSTIN McGOWAN!

Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#206626) #
Three one-run victories in the last week - they're still tied for the MLB lead in one-run losses, but they're now 21-27 in the close games. Not nearly as horrific as 2005, when they were 16-31.

Obviously, to still be 10 games under .500 despite outscoring the opposition by 25 runs indicates suggests that they've won a lot of blowouts, and haven't lost many. Which is, and always will be, a sign of quality. That's not exaqctly what this team has done. Here's how they've done this year arranged by victory margin:
 1 run games:  21 - 27
2 run games:  10 - 17
3 run games:   5 - 11
4 run games: 10 - 9
5 run games:  9 - 8
6 run games:  9 - 3
7 run games: 5 - 4
8 run games: 1 - 4
9 run games: 1 - 0
10 run games: 1 - 1
12 run games: 1 - 0
14 run games: 1 - 0

So in games decided by 1,2, or 3 runs - they've gone 36-55. In games decided by 4,5,6 runs - they've gone 28-20. In games decided by 7 or more runs- they've gone 10-9.
Frank Markotich - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#206627) #

I can't stand Jonathan Papelbon, but it didn't look to me as if Papelbon was trying to hit Lind. He was moving him off the plate, which is perfectly OK, it and wouldn't have even hit him at all if Lind hadn't done that funny downward twist where he lowered his elbow into the path of the ball.

S P - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#206640) #
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

That says the Jays are the 6th best team in the AL and 11th in the majors.  In 2006 they were 3rd in the AL and 3rd overall. In 2007 they were 5th in the AL and 8th overall. Last year they were 4th in the AL East and yet 5th overall!
Jays2010 - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#206646) #

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

That says the Jays are the 6th best team in the AL and 11th in the majors.  In 2006 they were 3rd in the AL and 3rd overall. In 2007 they were 5th in the AL and 8th overall. Last year they were 4th in the AL East and yet 5th overall!

Sounds about right; so maybe not better than the entire AL Central/West sans the LA Angels, but pretty close. And this is a team that had exactly 2 (poor) starts from their 2-5 starters from last year and jettisoned their 3B and RF part way through the year. If they brought this exact group back (including Scutaro, Barajas, Snider and Ruiz as an OF and DH respectively) and mixed in a McGowan here and a Litsch there, I'm guessing an 85-88 win team that would be a top 8 team in baseball according to BP's adjusted standings (though 3rd or 4th in their own division)...and yet the GM must be fired...

#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#206647) #

I can't stand Jonathan Papelbon, but it didn't look to me as if Papelbon was trying to hit Lind.

I gotta call B.S. on that one!  So did Doc, apparently!

 

 

Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#206648) #
Ortiz probably looked at the lineup tonight and thought "uh oh, me and 8 nobodies -- I guess I'm the one getting hit tonight."
AWeb - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#206649) #
Now that the no-no is over, I'd like to note that Ricky Nolasco has 14Ks through 6 innings in Atlanta. He's been intensely unlucky this year (ERA of 5.28, FIP of 3.50 coming into tonight, by far the largest difference in the majors), but it's been a few years (I think) since anyone punched out batters in the high teens, so I'm randomly hoping for him.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#206650) #
Tonight's game might be a good illustration why the Pythagorean record needs to be taken with a grain of salt. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#206651) #
And incidentally, now that Balsillie's bid for a NHL franchise is now dead, it is perhaps a good time for him to start looking to buy a baseball club.  Balls for Balsillie!  We don't want Strawberry, we want Blackberry!
Mike D - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#206652) #
As a fan, it has been pretty fun to pretend that this series matters.  Seriously, it's been delightful.
Sanjay - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#206653) #

I "heart" Harry Leroy Halladay III. 

If this was his last start as a Toronto Blue Jay, I am going to miss him dearly.

Imagine if the Ortiz HBP was the only blemish of the night, that would've my idea of a "perfect game". 

Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#206654) #
"Just got away from me." With a straight face! LOL.
Hodgie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#206656) #
Roy Halladay vs. David Ortiz: HBP, K, K, K 13 pitches. Classic!
Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#206657) #
A poster at SoSH:

Toronto has played well over the last month... They look like they just quit on the season in July and August after management quit and tried to deal Halladay, and gave away Rios

Although the best line of the night came after the fourth string catcher gave up consecutive hits to start the ninth:

He's got nothing. Bring in Nick Green.


S P - Wednesday, September 30 2009 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#206658) #
"Tonight's game might be a good illustration why the Pythagorean record needs to be taken with a grain of salt."

I thought Pythag accounts for run environment through non-2 exponents, no? Either way, it's still a better indicator of a team's performance than actual W-L.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#206667) #
My point is that with the Red Sox obviously not playing to win, the 12-0 score does not carry the same meaning that it would had it occurred in June. 
LouisvilleJayFan - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#206671) #
Any guesses on who (if any) of the Lugnuts makes BA's Midwest League Top 20 that comes out today? I'm guessing Alvarez at anywhere from 4 to 8 and Chavez at anywhere from 9 to 13.
FranklyScarlet - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#206673) #
Blue Jays set Fenway record for home runs 7:41 AM Thu, Oct 01, 2009 | Permalink
Mike McDermott    Email

The Toronto Blue Jays hit 13 home runs in their sweep of the Red Sox this week, setting a new record for homers hit in a three game series by a visiting team at Fenway Park.

Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#206680) #
I would say Pastornicky makes it and Chavez maybe not.
John Northey - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#206681) #
Today's adjusted standings have the Jays as the 5th best team in the AL, just 1 game behind the Angels and 3 1/2 back of the Red Sox and 5 of the Rays (Yankees a mile ahead of all).  The NL teams with better 3rd order wins are Atlanta, St Louis, LAD and Colorado.  Just ahead of Philly.

Thus, once again, what kills JP as a GM?  He just isn't lucky enough.  The big question is why the Jays consistently under-perform their 3rd order wins year in/year out. 
LouisvilleJayFan - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#206687) #
OK, so AGAIN the Jays have ZERO prospects in the Top 20 of the Midwest League. I really don't see how they could leave Alvarez out of the Top 20. He has to be banging on the door at 21 or 22.
Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#206695) #
In his chat Callis said Alvarez was right around #20, he was #20 in an earlier version of the list.  He labelled Pastornicky as "interesting" whatever that means.
Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#206696) #
I just noticed this.  There are ten pitchers in the top 20, the average height is 6' 3.5" with four of them 6' 5" and none less than 6' 1".  Alvarez is generously listed at 6' and is skinny, Pedro Martinez size.  Maybe in the BA world that size counts against him as pitchers are supposed to be big and beefy to take the abuse that pitching puts on the body.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#206697) #
When Pedroia was in the high minors, Callis described his upside as that of Jody Reed. 

BA tends to favour tools over skills.  Sometimes they are right.  Other times not so much.  Personally, I prefer the balanced approach of a John Sickels. So, for instance, they'll look at someone like Dee Gordon and say, "wow, he's a shortstop who hits .300 and steals 75 bases." They won't pay adequate attention to the fact that he's 21 in the Midwest League and that by the time he gets to the Show, he'll have lost some speed and it will be very, very hard to hit anything like .300 playing in Dodger Stadium without any power while striking out a fair bit. 
AWeb - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#206698) #
Thus, once again, what kills JP as a GM?  He just isn't lucky enough.  The big question is why the Jays consistently under-perform their 3rd order wins year in/year out.

Actually, I think what kills Ricciardi is that he hasn't figured out the answer to that question - why do the Blue Jays consistently underperform their team peripherals? As fans with access to numerous internet analysis sites, it's easy to lose track of the fact that the Jays should be far ahead of any analysis someone is giving away for free. I don't know that they are (the NBA is like this, apparently, with front-offices having far more stats info that the public) way ahead, but they should be. The Angels, for instance, haven't underperformed their pythagorean record (not sure about thrid order wins) since 2003. Toronto since 2000 against simple pythagorean: +5, -3, -2, -3, -4, -7, 0, -3, -6, -8. That's well into the realm of pattern, not random chance. 31 wins down on the decade...I assume that's the worst? Keep in mind that if the Jays had managed to be a +7 (Seattle this year), they're still in the playoff hunt (although obviously the Red Sox don't submit the last game). One lucky year is apparently too much to ask.

I know Da' Box has grappled with this question, but with no offense to the excellent analyses here, the front office should be going way past that. Unlucky when good, unlucky when bad; if there's an answer beyond "it sucks to be unlucky", the Jays need to figure it out.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#206699) #
Whoa.  Third order wins/losses go beyond adjustments for "efficiency in run distribution", or divergence from Pythagoras.  They also include an adjustment to run scored/prevented from component parts and adjustment for opposition quality.  The adjustment for opposition quality will in the AL East of the last 25 years or so would almost always be significantly upwards; this has nothing to do with luck.

As for the Pythagorean divergence, luck is probably a significant part of it but there are obvious reasons why the Jays of late aughts might fare poorly in close games (lack of speed and one-run strategy proficiency, a generally poor bench, and field managers not particularly strong at tactics). 

Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#206700) #
there are obvious reasons why the Jays of late aughts might fare poorly in close games (lack of speed and one-run strategy proficiency, a generally poor bench, and field managers not particularly strong at tactics).

These are all things that may be true in a particular instance, but are not necessarily true as a general rule.

The thing about field managers and tactics - what field managers are good at tactics? How would we know? How would we recognize such a creature? (I can absolutely assure you that every team's fan base regards their local manager as a blithering idiot.) As an explanation, it makes an attractive sort of sense. But the issue turns us all into blind men trying to describe an elephant.

I can report that just because you've managed 2000 or so games in the major leagues (which might possibly help one absorb, by osmosis if nothing else, a sense of which game tactics work and which don't) doesn't mean your team can't be really lousy in close games. Or underperform your Pythagoas year after year after year.
S P - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#206702) #
"...there are obvious reasons why the Jays of late aughts might fare poorly in close games (lack of speed and one-run strategy proficiency, a generally poor bench, and field managers not particularly strong at tactics)."

I didn't know there was a correlation between speed and winning close games. Good base-running helps, which the Jays have had, but stealing bases doesn't necessarily correlate to winning close games.

What do you mean by "one-run strategy proficiency"? What's the strategy in those situations other than to simply hit the ball? I think they're just simply losing close games.

I'd say Gibbons was a pretty good manager insofar as a baseball manager can be "good". In other words, I don't think there's such a thing as "good managers", but I do think that managers can be bad. Take Cito for example: he actively hurts his team's chances of winning by making ridiculous mistakes (playing Kevin Millar at 3B) or mistakes of omission (not playing Ruiz, Accardo, not making defensive substitutions, not making obvious pinch-hitting calls, etc.  A "good manager" would make those obvious calls, which Gibbons did.

I think people tend to apply the dictator concept to baseball without realizing that there really isn't much room for a manager to have an impact on the game other than bullpen changes--the #1 responsibility of the manager.  Baseball is on the opposite spectrum from football where the coaches control absolutely everything except when the play breaks down on the field.

The fact that the bad luck has persisted under a two different types of managers, good and bad teams, with good bullpens each year, tell me that it's simply a case of awful bad luck.
Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#206703) #
ridiculous mistakes (playing Kevin Millar at 3B)

Well, if the alternative is Raul Chavez or Kyle Phillips... Gaston has done worse things in his time. This one hasn't even hurt the team!
Mylegacy - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#206704) #
Speaking of prospects - I'll remodify and repost this later in the appropriate thread however::::

SIX guys who are not "Prospects" BUT will have a major impact on 2010:
1) Shawn Marcum, 2) Dustin McGowan, 3) Moomraker, 4) Romero, 5) The Mighty Ruiz and 6) Adam Loewen

The 30 TOP PROSPECTS based on partly what they've done + their upside - NOTE - ALL these guys have done at least something...
1) Alvarez Henderson, 2) Moises Sierra, 3) Brett Cecil, 4) Marc Rzepczynski, 5) Brad Mills, 6) Zachary Stewart, 7) Robert Ray, 8) Eric Thames, 9) Carlos Perez, 10) Gustavo Pierre, 11) Johermyn Chavez, 12) Robert Bell, 13) Tim "Bit" Collins, 14) Brian Dopirak, 15) Angel Sanchez, 16) Kyle Phillips, 17) JP Arencibia, 18) Dirk Hayhurst, 19) Tyler Pastornicky, 20) Luis Perez, 21) Reidier Gonzalas, 22) Andrew Liebel, 23) Charles Huggins, 24) Trystan Magnusen, 25) Daniel Farquhar, 26) Kenny Rodriguez, 27) Welinton Ramirez, 28) Darin Mastroianni, 29) Justin Jackson and 30) Hunter Moody

NOW here are 20 more PROSPECTS - some of whom would be higher on my list if they were actually doing anything other than reading their press clippings:::
1) Stephen Jenkins, 2) Jacob Marisnick, 3) Michael McDade, 4) John Tolisano, 5) Juan Hernandez, 6) Joel Carreno, 7) Ryan Schimpf, 8) Sean Ochinko, 9) Mark Sobolewski, 10) Zack Dials, 11) Kenneth Wilson, 12) Scott Campbell, 13) Ed Buzachero, 14) Kevin Aherns, 15) Rommie Lewis, 16) Jon Talley, 17) Brian Van Kirk, 18) Justin McClanahan, 19) Eric Eiland and 20) Jon Fernandez (Tony's baby boy).

OK - So I KNOW BA doesn't like our prospects - I know there is not a lot of A+ guys there - BUT - there is a ton of guys that are going to play at the big league level. Ours is a good system. Is it April yet?

S P - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#206705) #
He could've played Lind in LF and actually play Ruiz, at DH, then put Bautista at 3B.

What's even worse is that he has batted Millar at cleanup 11 times and last night he even batted him 3rd!

S P - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#206706) #
Keep in mind that Millar started 3B for a Halladay start
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#206714) #
it's still a better indicator of a team's performance than actual W-L.

This makes no sense whatsoever. A team's performance is its won-loss record. When they invent a game where you total runs up at the end of the year then the above statement will be true. Until then, Boston will skip Beckett on Monday, pitch position-players on Wednesday and start minor leaguers, and it doesn't mean that the Blue Jays win 5 games in 3 because they score a bunch of runs off position players pitching or keep Pawtucket scoreless.
Frankly, Pythagorean wins are a better measurement of wishful thinking or an aversion to realistically taking stock than anything else
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#206715) #
That hittracker site is amazing.  I could spend hours tooling around that place.  Lind's page is pretty impressive.  You couldn't tell if he hits RH or LH by his HR plot.  It's a perfect random spread around the entire field.  Unlike Hill, who's almost exclusively left-left center.  Here's the link. 
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#206716) #
Oops, doesn't look like that link works. 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_4778&type=hitter

Try that. 

bball12 - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#206717) #
The best indicator of team performance. No equations needed.

Its called the "Party Snack Theory".

Here is how it works:

When the playoffs arrive and your team is in them:
Your team performed well.

When the playoffs arrive - and all of your players are watching the games eating Doritos and sucking down some Budweisers:
Your team didnt perform well.

No equations needed.
 

John Northey - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#206718) #
I'm not one to defend playing Millar (I feel he should never have been signed, or at least released at some point during the season) however...

When Millar played 3B: Jays are 3-0
When Millar has played in Sept: Jays are 9-4
August: 3-4
July: 4-9 (note how his playing time dropped after this)
June: 7-9
May: 7-12
April: 5-4

So when he played this month, the month I felt he really shouldn't have been here, the team has done well. When he was stuck in at third base - which seemed insane at the time, the team has won every time. April and September are the only times the Jays were over 500 this year.

Hrm. Looking at the team record by month I saw something sad. In July the Jays went 8-16 but somehow outscored their opponents 108-104. How the )@&! did they do that? Only in May (by 1 run) and August (123 vs 147) were they outscored (assuming they aren't outscored by 23 runs this weekend).

In blowouts the Jays are 29-20 (5+ run spread).
One run: 21-27
Extra Innings: 7-12

Vs Yankees: 6-12 despite being outscored by just 5 runs
Vs Boston: 7-11 outscored by 11 runs (factoring in yesterday)
Vs Tampa: 4-14 outscored 63 to 93 (!) ouch.

Biggest crowd of the year...
Home Opener (including road games)

Smallest...
KC: 9.5k, Baltimore: 10k, KC 10k then the 3 horrid ones in Toronto. The 5 lowest crowd games the Jays lost.
Thomas - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#206719) #
Take Cito for example: he actively hurts his team's chances of winning by making....mistakes of omission (not playing Ruiz

By my count Ruiz has not played in exactly three games he should have been playing in. August 29, September 1 and September 4. That's 10 more at-bats Ruiz should have, but it's not the end of the world. Criticize Cito for the mistakes he's made, not the mistakes he hasn't.

Thomas - Thursday, October 01 2009 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#206720) #
Okay, you can also probably make a reasonable argument that Ruiz should have got a start in place over Overbay at some point in that stretch, but that's another game or two at most, unless you wanted Cito to bench Overbay for a significant stretch despite having the second highest OPS of any regular on the team.
S P - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#206722) #
It's a better indicator of the team's performance going forward. This has been proven to be true. Look no further than the Rays of last year. They outperformed their Pythagorean record by a huge margin, so naturally that is being corrected by bad luck this year.
S P - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#206723) #
Why is Randy Ruiz, and his .973 OPS, missing ABs not a big deal? Pretend for a second that the Jays were contending. Ruiz is averaging a HR ever 13 ABs. So in that missed time he could've hit a HR that decided a game. Something tells me that even if they were a contender, Cito would still sit Ruiz. It's these types of egregious mistakes that can directly cost games. Like I said earlier, there's really no such thing as a brilliant managerial move; there are simple decisions and then there are omissions of simple decisions. Cito omits simple decisions.

All that aside, why would a losing team not play Ruiz in the first place? They finally brought him up and now they're sitting him for Millar? What's more important to do going forward--getting a veteran playing time, or seeing what Ruiz has to offer so they can make a good decision about him?
Chuck - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#206724) #

there's really no such thing as a brilliant managerial move

I think those moves do exist, but they are not in-game tactics. A manager's most important job, to my mind, is deciding who gets to play in the first place.

Much as I am not enamored with Gaston, the decision to turn Scutaro into an everyday player was a brilliant one. The decision to keep sending Tallett to the mound as a starter, at least in the first half of the year, was as well. The stubbornness to rest Rolen in day games seemed to pay dividends. One can't prove the causal effect between Rolen's rest and his performance, but one can't dismiss its possibility.

By contrast, the decision to keep writing Millar into the lineup was a good deal less than brilliant. The decision to stretch League's appearances beyond a single inning seemed stubborn. The reluctance to make Frasor a more integral part of the bullpen was frustrating. The love affair with Bautista has been curious (yes, Bautista has been shining in September, but will he even be here in 2010?). And of course the Ruiz situation. If Lind has been hurt, then yes, Ruiz has nowhere to play against RHP. But if Lind is sitting because of Bautista's superior defense, then that's worthy of debate. Ruiz is not likely to become anything in the majors, given his age, but why not play him in September and see how he looks, especially given his success in his limited playing time? Is he a viable $300K platoon-mate for Overbay?

Matthew E - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#206728) #
I'm not sure that it was so brilliant to turn Scutaro into a regular. I mean, it worked out great, but what else was he supposed to do? The alternatives weren't particularly attractive.
Chuck - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#206729) #

what else was he supposed to do?

I do agree that come the start of this season, yes, there were not a lot of alternatives. None in fact. But the decision was really made last season when he had three choices for shortstop: Eckstein, McDonald and Scutaro. It wasn't clear to me that there was an obvious starter among them, Scutaro least of all. Choosing Scutaro then cleared the path to have him start this season, a good reason why there were no other shortstops brought in in the off-season (well, that and a policy of thrift).

Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#206730) #
Returning to the whole Pythagorean vs. actual debate, if you want to get the most accurate projection of a team's projected performance (on average) in year X+1 using only Pythagorean and actual records in year X, you would use a combination of them.  Bill James' initial work might have suggested a 1/3 actual and 2/3 Pythagorean.  I am sure that somebody has done work on refining the mix.  I would venture a guess that if you looked at a club which had a significant Pythagorean differential over a prior 3 year period, the optimal projection would be weighted more to the actual record vs. the Pythagorean record.

Bad luck hasn't been the club's only problem over the last 5 years, although it was likely part of it.

Parker - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#206737) #
As much as I hate to do it, I have to give credit for Scutaro to JP or perhaps even Rogers for refusing to spend any additional money.  It's not the field manager's decision whether to sign a free agent.  It was a calculated risk to give Scoots the starter's job and in this case it paid off in spades, at least until he got tired and his performance started to suffer.  If anything, Gaston hurt the team's performance at short this year by not giving Scutaro more regular rest.  On the other hand, the question of whether it's better to play a tired Scutaro than a rested Johnny Mac is up for debate.
TamRa - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#206749) #
This makes no sense whatsoever. A team's performance is its won-loss record. When they invent a game where you total runs up at the end of the year then the above statement will be true. Until then, Boston will skip Beckett on Monday, pitch position-players on Wednesday and start minor leaguers, and it doesn't mean that the Blue Jays win 5 games in 3 because they score a bunch of runs off position players pitching or keep Pawtucket scoreless.
Frankly, Pythagorean wins are a better measurement of wishful thinking or an aversion to realistically taking stock than anything else


Please.

How many such games as we have seen this week will a team play in a given season?

2? 3? 5?

how much difference could it possibly make on the pythag?

Heck, come down to it - they WON these games so that by itself minimizes the difference between actual wins and pythag wins that these games produce.

So what if pythag says you underpreformed your stats by 8 games and it turns out it's only 7 or 6 because of a couple of suspect September games?

it's not like that's a gigantic shift in the point being made.

Forkball - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#206750) #
If JP had the money Furcal would have been signed.  IIRC, he was trying to trade players (that no one wanted) to free money up.
Magpie - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#206779) #
because they score a bunch of runs off position players pitching or keep Pawtucket scoreless.

Well, actually they scored 1 run off a position player and 8 runs off regular members of the Red Sox staff. One of whom (the one they scored 5 runs against) is a guy with 189 wins in the major leagues.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Roy Halladay held a few other teams scoreless from time to time?
Magpie - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#206780) #
They finally brought him up and now they're sitting him for Millar?

Ruiz can play third base? The guy blocking Ruiz, now and in the future, is Adam Lind.
Magpie - Friday, October 02 2009 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#206784) #
Ruiz is averaging a HR ever 13 ABs. So in that missed time he could've hit a HR that decided a game.

Youneverknow. One of the three games in question (Aug 29) ended with Millar hitting a game ending popup against Papelbon for the final out with the tying run on first base. In the September 1 game, the Jays lost 5-2 (Millar 0-2 with 2 BB) and in the other game (Sept.4), the Jays won 6-0 despite Millar's 0-5.
S P - Sunday, October 04 2009 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#206969) #
Ruiz can play third base? The guy blocking Ruiz, now and in the future, is Adam Lind.

No, but Bautista can.  Starting Millar at 3B for the first time since his early career, and especially for a Halladay start, is inexcusable.
Thomas - Sunday, October 04 2009 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#206973) #
No, but Bautista can. Starting Millar at 3B for the first time since his early career, and especially for a Halladay start, is inexcusable.

Blame this on JP and the bean counters.

You, or some other poster(s), have made this same mistaken point a few times this past week. Would you rather have Millar at 3B or Ruiz in RF or Overbay in RF and Ruiz at 1B? None of those are good defensive alignments, but Millar at 3B is the least worst of the bunch. And those were your own alternatives given the roster situation and injuries at the time.

Cito sat Ruiz for Millar in August and the first week of September a few times. It was stupid. Ruiz should have been given the opportunity to play 1B and the at-bats. However, Ruiz has almost nothing to do with Millar playing 3B.

Adam Lind is pretty good. | 69 comments | Create New Account
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