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Whatever it is, it ain't gonna be "Free"!
Okay, let’s see if I have this straight … according to ESPN.com’s not-very-user-friendly MLB Baseball Free Agent Tracker, there are 214 players who are/were free agents this off-season, some via non-tender, many via traditional contractual terms, with the occasional Cuban refugee tossed into the mix. (though they are two of the Top 10 ESPN.com ranks, they are not considered in this exercise.)

If I am counting right, 67 are no longer “on the market” as 55 have signed with a major league club and another dozen have inked minor league deals.



Again, if I am counting right, 29 teams have signed at least one free agent – we’re waiting on you, Cincinnati! – while nine of those have signed exactly one free agent. Nine more have signed a pair of freebies, while seven have inked a trio of players. Oddly, no team has signed four, but three rosters – including your Toronto Blue Jays – welcome five newcomers, and we can raise a beer stein to the leaders at the New Year turn, as the Milwaukee Brewers have already signed no less than six free agents to 2010 contracts.

Okay, that math doesn’t work exactly right, but you get the idea – there are still around 150 unsigned free agents on the market, which leads to an interesting thought experiment … given an unlimited budget, what kind of team could we build from the talent out there right now for “free”? Let’s see …

Starting Lineup
C Ivan Rodriguez
1B Carlos Delgado
2B Orlando Hudson
SS Miguel Tejada
3B Adrian Beltre
LF Matt Holliday
CF Marlon Byrd
RF Vladimir Guerrero
DH Jack Cust

Bench
C Gregg Zaun
IF Mark Loretta
IF Omar Vizquel
OF Johnny Damon
OF Rick Ankiel
UTIL Frank Catalanotto

As for a starting rotation, let's go five-wide and make sure we include at least two lefties. There's a lot of depth but a lot of question marks. How's this look?

Rotation
SP Erik Bedard
SP Doug Davis
SP Joel Pineiro
SP Randy Johnson
SP Pedro Martinez

That's right, no room here for the question mark that is Jon Garland, the clubhouse cancer that is Vicente Padilla, the age question of Jason Schmidt (on a team that already has two quatrogenarian Hall-of-Famers-to-be in its rotation?) or the health risk that is Chien-Ming Wang. Actually, toss Livan Hernandez into that group and that's a pretty decent five-man rotation on its own -- of guys who didn't even make this team! (More on that later.)

But with a rotation that might set a record for fewest complete games in a season, we need a solid bullpen, and we're even going to cheat a little and shore up that pen with two guys who are currently starters, but who have both starred in bullpen roles previously, in the elderly John Smoltz and the rebounding Brett Myers. And who else? Well, Troy Percival edges out Jason Isringhausen in the Battle of the Questionable Closers; Danys Baez is still around; and, hey, Blue Jay fans should recognize that last name, another starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever! It’s Miggy!

Bullpen
CL Troy Percival
RP Danys Baez
RP Miguel Batista
RP Brett Myers
RP John Smoltz

And how does that roster stack up? Well, it's an old, old team and injury-prone to boot, even on its bench. So we'll grab Mike Green's old visionary mixing bowl, stir it all up, add a dash of Cayenne pepper, and see this team hobbling to an 83-win third place in the 2010 AL East.

But wait ... there's tons more! You take those (arguably not) "Best 25" out of the mix, and you can still build up another entirely different, but pretty decent complete roster ...

Starting Lineup
C Brian Schneider
1B Adam LaRoche
2B Ronnie Belliard
SS Orlando Cabrera
3B Joe Crede
LF Garret Anderson
CF Reed Johnson
RF Jermaine Dye
DH Jim Thome

Bench
C Bengie Molina
IF Nomar Garciaparra
IF Khalil Greene
OF Darin Erstad
OF Brian Giles
PH Jason Giambi

Rotation
SP Jason Schmidt
SP Chien-Ming Wang
SP Vicente Padilla
SP Jon Garland
SP Livan Hernandez

Bullpen
CL Jason Isringhausen
RP Brendan Donnelly
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP Chad Bradford
RP Jeff Weaver

Yeah, I think that first team listed above would play plus-.500 ball in the ’10 AL East, while the “B” team there ends up around 71-91, presuming it – facing the same injury-prone issue as the varsity squad above – can stay more or less healthy.

So, Bauxites, what do you think of these teams? Which is better? Who should be moved? Who’s missing and should be added from that initial long list of “free” agents?

What's left of free agency? | 42 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ron - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 02:33 AM EST (#210613) #
Cross Gregg Zaun off your list. The Brewers signed him to a 1 yr deal with a club option on December 4th. I'm not sure if these guys have officially filed for retirement but we could throw Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, Kenny Loften, Jim Edmonds, and Tom Glavine into the mix.
TamRa - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 02:47 AM EST (#210614) #
Pudge, Zaun, Vizquel, and Schnider are all off the market.


Has Ankiel gotten cheap enough for a reasonable gamble yet? or is Church still the obvious choice to platoon with Bautista (barring a trade)?


Spifficus - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 02:52 AM EST (#210615) #

A thought excersize and armchair GM-ing, always a fun combo. Thanks, Mick!

I think Pudge (Nats) and Vizquel (ChiSox) are off the list. I'd move Greene up from the taxi squad, and reunite the catching tandem of Molina and Zaun. Barajas could take Molina's spot on the leftovers.

This is a far better team than I thought was out there still. Looking at the rotation, though, that's too much uncertainty between Bedard, Johnson and Martinez. I'd probably swap The Big Unit with one of the innings eaters. Probably Padilla, because Garland is so vanilla he makes vanilla taste spicy. Also, I'd swap Batista for Weaver, who I trust more in the swingman role, or perhaps drop Cat (sorry!), and include them both.

TamRa - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 04:41 AM EST (#210617) #
on point, here's my team:

1. Johnny Damon - DH
2. Felipe Lopez - 2B
3. Matt Holliday - LF
4. Carlos Delgado - 1B
5. Vlad Guerrero* - RF
6. Miguel Tejada - SS
7. Adrian Beltre - 3B
8. Benji Molina - C
9. Marlon Byrd - CF

I'm giving up a lot on defense there so I'll try to make up a bit of it on the bench:

Hudson, Cabrera, Molina, Ankiel, Blalock

*It is a huge gamble to count on Vladdy's knees to hold up to playing the field but the next best RF option is probably Nady who's no model of durability himself. I chose to gamble on a bounce back from Ankiel instead.

SP:

Bedard
Sheets
Pinero
Washburn
Martinez

BP

Velverde
Smoltz
Shouse
Park
Beimel
Meyers

Whole thing would probably cost about $120 mil and if everyone were healthy - BIG if - would be formidable.


I'm going to guess that Mike overlooked Velverde by resorting to Issy and Percival as the closers there.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 12:29 PM EST (#210623) #
No soup today chez Green, Mick.  The Moet will have to do to help us say goodbye to the decade.  Speaking of which, Green's team of the decade is:

C-   Joe Mauer
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Scott Rolen
UI-  Alex Rodriguez
RF- Ichiro!
CF- Jim Edmonds or Carlos Beltran
LF- Barry Bonds or some other unaided slugger
DH- David Ortiz
SP- Roy Halladay
RP- Mariano Rivera

It might be fun to run out an outfield of Ichiro, Edmonds and Beltran.  Doc would have the season of his career.  Happy New Year, Bauxites.

Moe - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 01:00 PM EST (#210625) #
Considering that Ankiel is a Boras guy, I would rather gamble on Nady. Offer him 1+1 with incentives. If he bounces back nicely, he becomes a trade chip.
PeterG - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 01:35 PM EST (#210626) #
Cubs may be interested in trading for Jason Frasor according to mlb traderumours. Apparently, they have talked and are talking to the Jays about their relievers.
92-93 - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 04:27 PM EST (#210631) #
I assume Mike that you're trying to assemble that team based on their peak performances, and not an actual All-Decade team. I'd think that Jeff Kent and Jorge Posada would be extremely disappointed being left off for two guys who basically missed half the decade.
Jim - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 06:21 PM EST (#210635) #
At some positions it was peak because I'm pretty sure I'd rather have A-Rod at 3rd. 
scottt - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 08:47 PM EST (#210636) #
Cubs may be interested in trading for Jason Frasor according to mlb traderumours. Apparently, they have talked and are talking to the Jays about their relievers.

Is Frasor a potential free agent after 2010? I think he's currently unsigned. If he stays, he's a candidate to close. As a closer, his trade value might go up a bit.

Some arms will have to be traded, but hopefully not for marginal prospects that will never wear a Jays uniform.
PeterG - Thursday, December 31 2009 @ 10:11 PM EST (#210638) #
Isn't that what was thought of Frasor when he was acquired?  And yes, if he stays, he will likely be the closer but I think he is seen that way already. Did he not finish the season in that role?
John Northey - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 01:55 AM EST (#210640) #
I suspect any reliever who is arbitration eligible will be on the trading block and not for too much.  The Jays have a surplus of pitchers for the pen so clearing out a few of the more expensive ones would clear payroll room for other things (hopefully to sign new kids via the draft or international free agency).  Why spend $10+ million on a bullpen (not counting Ryan) when you aren't going to be in the playoff battle (baring a miracle)? 

Now, I don't say trade for nothing, but remember that Frasor himself was viewed as a 'junk prospect' when the Jays got him years ago.

scottt - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 07:11 AM EST (#210642) #
Junk prospect?

Frasor was a successful closer in the Angel organization when they traded him for Jason Werth and he became the closer when they brought him up in 2004.  Surely, he's worth more than that now.

Richard S.S. - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 08:15 AM EST (#210643) #

Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet and Jeremy Accardo might be of interest to the Cubs.   They're looking for a reliever who can start/spot start if needed - Brian Tallet fills that bill.   They need backup for Marmol - Frasor, Downs or Accardo fill that bill.   For a #5-8 on the Cubs prospects list they get one, but for two relievers, we want #1-4 on the list; to wit: a top SS or a top3B or maybe a top RF (2011 ready prefered).   For more, we negotiate for a top stud, and something else?

Frasor's new pitch elevates his value greatly, as he showed this year.   A pitcher who works to be better all his career will be in  always be in demand.

John Northey - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 10:20 AM EST (#210644) #
Frasor, when aquired, was a guy entering his age 26 season who just finished his first (partial) AA season as a closer after starting the season repeating A+ (at 25) which is not normally viewed as much of a prospect.  That is who Frasor was at the time he came to the Jays organization.  He then threw just 3 games in AAA before coming up.  Another 18 games in 2006 was his last time in the minors.  61 IP total in AA/AAA.  He was a 33rd round draft pick in 1999 so he didn't exactly have a major pedigree either.  He came to LA as a player to be named later in a trade for Hiram Bocachica (a guy who twice has had negative OPS+'s in the majors, primarily as a CF/OF). 

To see the threads when Werth-Frasor occured check near the end here (people talking about who we could get for Werth then a 'shudder' at Frasor being all we got) and check here for post trade reaction (hint - it ain't pretty).

For those who forgot, Frasor was aquired for Jayson Werth at an end of spring deal where the Jays had to do something with Werth as he was out of options and there was no roster space for him.  In '04 Werth would go on to a 115 OPS+ in 326 PA, then drop to 89 before being injured for a year then as a free agent went to Philly and has had 3 straight 120+ OPS+ seasons in a row going from 304 PA to 676 last season.  FYI: our main outfielders in 2004 were Johnson/Wells/Rios/Catalanotto of whom only Wells cracked 90 for OPS+ (ugh).  Berg and Gross and Clark also logged significant OF time (30+ games, no others cracked 10 games) with OPS+ under 65.  87 OPS+ for the team as a whole despite still having Delgado.

Brrr....  2004 was ugly, ugly, ugly.  No wonder we got excited about Adams when he came up with a 124 OPS+ in September.
ayjackson - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 10:34 AM EST (#210645) #
Frasor and Downs are both free agents at the end of 2010.  Accardo and Tallet have two years of control left.  If Downs pitches this year like he did last year, and closes out some games, he could plaly his way into an "A" ranking.  Both Downs and Frasor are solid assets that should be easy to tender next fall.
Mike Green - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 11:24 AM EST (#210647) #
A-Rod spent half the decade at short, and half at third.  I made him a UI, in light of that and pure capriciousness resulting from the steroid stuff.  I went for best 5 years, hence Utley over Kent and Mauer over Posada.
greenfrog - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 11:54 AM EST (#210648) #
Interestingly, both Werth and Frasor have proved to be late bloomers. After not doing much in his age 23-26 seasons in Toronto and LA (753 OPS), Werth's career has taken off in Philly, where he has posted an 870 OPS over the last three years (with pretty even home/away splits). Frasor has been more consistent but just had a career year at age 31 with a 173 ERA+ (compared to his career ERA+ of 119 and previous high of 137 back in 2005).

Although Toronto evidently got the worse of the Werth-Frasor trade, it could have been worse. Had the Jays been in contention last year, Frasor would have been very useful to have around. He could be a useful under-the-radar acquisition for a contender in 2010.
92-93 - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 02:46 PM EST (#210649) #
http://bit.ly/7n2yNL

The Blue Jays signing Chapman is the one thing that would probably garner a tremendous amount of fan support for the team after trading Doc. One can dream.
Chuck - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 03:08 PM EST (#210650) #

Although Toronto evidently got the worse of the Werth-Frasor trade

Had the Jays not made the Werth-for-Frasor trade, there's nothing to say that the Jays would have hung onto Werth until he became the player he is now. The Dodgers didn't stick with him.

 

Ryan Day - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 03:12 PM EST (#210651) #
Although Toronto evidently got the worse of the Werth-Frasor trade

I'd say LA got the worst of the trade, since they have neither Frasor nor Werth; they got one decent season and one poor one out of Werth before he got hurt and they non-tendered him. (Which was probably a sensible move for a hitter who'd had some serious wrist issues)
greenfrog - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 03:46 PM EST (#210652) #
Good point. The Jays got Frasor, LA got the worse of the trade, and Philly got the Werth of the trade. :)
timpinder - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 05:01 PM EST (#210653) #

It looks like the Jays are interested in Chapman:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4788226

ayjackson - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 05:45 PM EST (#210654) #
The fact that the Angels were amongst the leading suitors for Chapman and haven't been granted a private workout gets me quite excited.  Add to that our collective representatives were meeting last night while the rest of the world was pushing back the juice is music to my ears.  Be still, be still.
Mylegacy - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 06:14 PM EST (#210657) #
IF - we get this guy - we'll have added FOUR stud starters that didn't play in the Jays system before last year: Jenkins, Stewart, Drabek and Chapman. Going forward that would be one some-of-a-britch FOUR UBBER-PROSPECTS - WOW!
christaylor - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 06:31 PM EST (#210658) #
Chapman would be a really good signing if he's as advertised. The price tag is a little bit off-putting, especially if he wants a major league deal similar to the one signed by Porcello.

This site:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/aroldis-chapman-everything-you-need-to-know/

puts the money needed to sign him as much as $40-60m. I can't see the Jays being players at that level unless they get creative (which the front office has shown they can do with the Hill deal). Then again we'd not have heard the Jays associated with a name like this a few years ago. The amount of teams interested seems to indicate that he's for real and the Sox showed how smart their front office is by trying to get in early. I have faith in the AA program.
Wildrose - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 07:42 PM EST (#210659) #
Interesting stuff.  I wonder if the Blue Jays may have an inside track in these negotiations
as American corporations are precluded from dealing directly with Havana because of the Helms /Burton trade embargo act.

Now Chapman I'm sure is regarded as being a traitor to the revolution in Cuba. As however, Tor Kamata was fond of saying , " money talks Mr. Whalen, money talks....". Lets just say part of the cost of signing Chapman finds its way into the coffers of the Cuban Baseball
Federation.  This  would be completely legal to do in Canada , not so in America.

Chapman has left his parents, 2 sisters and a girlfriend and their child behind,  upon defecting. Perhaps if the appropriate Cuban wheels are greased they can come to Canada as well, and Chapman can return home when he wishes.

Who knows - the Cubans are quite ideological ( although perhaps less so now that Fidel is no longer running the show on his own)  , perhaps they won't do business with a defector ? Maybe Selig steps in to halt any direct dealings with Havana ? Perhaps the cost of signing him becomes inordinate ?

Wildrose - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 07:57 PM EST (#210660) #
There may be some tax implications as well for Chapman if he signs with an American team that may ( I really have no idea )  be dealt with more beneficially under Canadian Taxation law.

By signing in 2010, Chapman's bonus will now be eligible to be taxed by the U.S. government.

 


Wildrose - Friday, January 01 2010 @ 08:37 PM EST (#210661) #
This is a pretty good video of Chapman as he talks about his defection and his newborn child.
Geoff - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 12:31 AM EST (#210662) #
I wouldn't get too excited about the Jays' interest in Chapman. It's at least as likely that the rumour and workout are part of the Hendricks bros. agency doing some smart tactics to pressure the market  than the possibility that the Jays are any nearer to signing Chapman than a half dozen other potential suitors.

However, I thought last week when it came out about Chapman's signing bonus issue (and how he could have been better off taking the Red Sox offer) if there was any advantage that Canada would have to offer. Wouldn't think so, but Canadian-Cuban relations are a more interesting avenue if that can be made into something. Although I can hardly find it civil to say that Chapman's family would be allowed to emigrate if he signed with a Canadian franchise, but not if he signed with an American one. If there was any particular advantage the Jays had with signing Cuban players over the other 29 MLB teams, I'd expect it would have already come up by now.

China fan - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:48 AM EST (#210663) #
I find it interesting (and encouraging) that the Jays got involved in the Chapman talks AFTER the Red Sox had already made a $15-million offer for him.  In other words, the Jays knew that big money would be required, yet they still took a serious interest in the guy.   Maybe I'm over-optimistic, but I'm always looking for signs that AA has persuaded the owners to start spending money on young prospects.  Even if they don't acquire Chapman, it still might be an indication that the Jays are going to be a bit more aggressive in the hunt for Latin American and Asian free agents.  Unlike the MLB free agents, the youngsters in Latin America and Asia would fit with AA's apparent philosophy of acquiring prospects who could mature around 2012 or 2013 when the team is ready to make a bigger push.
China fan - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 04:01 AM EST (#210664) #

Wildrose makes an excellent point about the possibility that a Blue Jays contract offer to Chapman could be split with the Cuban baseball authorities.   This is somewhat similar to what happened with the contract money for Yao Ming, the Chinese basketball star:  a big chunk of his multimillion-dollar contract went to the Chinese sports authorities, who consequently allowed Yao to leave the country.  The same thing happened with Soviet and Russian hockey stars: before 1991 they had to defect and sever all relations with the Soviet Union, at great personal cost, but after 1991 a deal was negotiated to give a chunk of the money to the Russian hockey authorities and as a result everyone was happy to allow the flow of players from Russia to the NHL.

With Cuba potentially on the verge of liberalizing in the post-Castro era (and anyway Raul seems to be more liberal than Fidel), a baseball contract that gives money to the Cuban authorities could be historically significant.  Maybe the Americans wouldn't like it, but MLB might allow it if it opened the floodgates to a flow of Cuban baseball players.  Alternatively, even if it allowed Chapman's family to emigrate to Canada, it could be a win-win deal for everyone.  If something is shifting in the Cuban system, and if AA has spotted it as an opportunity for the Jays, more power to him.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 09:28 AM EST (#210665) #
Somehow I can see Beeston being friends with the Castros - sitting around smoking cigars and enjoying a few laughs.
Wildrose - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 10:42 AM EST (#210666) #

If there was any particular advantage the Jays had with signing Cuban players over the other 29 MLB teams, I'd expect it would have already come up by now.

Actually Beeston has been there before-in the late eighties  , the Blue Jays had the top 5 Cuban players signed to contracts, but the commisoner vetoed the deal. The Helms/Burton trade embargo also covers individual Americans as well ( e.g. J.P. Ricciardi) so caution is advised. Where it gets dicey is that the Jays play in the US and are some subject to a certain degree to American laws ( see Sherritt Mines).

We do however live in a world where things change-we have a new US president who is not totally commited to the Miami Cuban expatriate community as the prior President once was. Also the sands are shifting in Cuba as well, the Blue Jays may be wise pursue any advantage they have have in this region.

Forkball - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 11:48 AM EST (#210667) #
Even if they don't acquire Chapman, it still might be an indication that the Jays are going to be a bit more aggressive in the hunt for Latin American and Asian free agents.  Unlike the MLB free agents, the youngsters in Latin America and Asia would fit with AA's apparent philosophy of acquiring prospects who could mature around 2012 or 2013 when the team is ready to make a bigger push.

I think the time line is a little too specific, but otherwise I think that's part of AA's long term strategy.  That is to focus on spending their money at the early parts of the player acquisition chain (draft, international free agents) than the end of the player acquisition chain (old free agents). 

$5 million gets you Marlon Byrd in free agency.  $5 million in the draft or international free agents can you really good prospects that you can control for below market prices for many years.  That kind of potential cost efficiency is where you can make up a lot of ground against the payroll superpowers.  And because those teams also invest heavily in those areas you have to do that better (with better scouts and more scouts).
electric carrot - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 12:45 PM EST (#210668) #
Is JP the Jays' Dan Duquette?  And hence AA our Theo E?  Or is this just AA's honeymoon with us?



zeppelinkm - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 07:34 PM EST (#210686) #
Really sorry to thread hijack even a little bit, but I have a question I know a reader here can help me with.

I want to know what the league average OBP for players with at least 250 or 300 PA's is for any given season. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

Mike Green - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 09:17 PM EST (#210690) #
Go here. Export to Excel, and away you go.  The median is .337, and the average is probably .340.  The AL league average OBP without the 250 PA limitation was .336.
zeppelinkm - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 10:48 PM EST (#210691) #
Mike,

Should I just use the average function in excel for all the OBP's of all players? My gut is no, and I should not be lazy and just set up a formula to calculate the properly weighted OBP for all players...playing around now.

Thanks for the link. Never thought about using that 'export to excel' feature.

zeppelinkm - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 10:56 PM EST (#210692) #
Mike,

Should I just use the average function in excel for all the OBP's of all players? My gut is no, and I should not be lazy and just set up a formula to calculate the properly weighted OBP for all players...playing around now.

Thanks for the link. Never thought about using that 'export to excel' feature.

Chuck - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 07:15 AM EST (#210695) #
I would have thought Excel would have a weighted average function. Turns out that you have to use two functions to do weighted average calculations: SUMPRODUCT and SUM. Weighted average = SUMPRODUCT(OBPs, weights) / SUM (weights).
JohnL - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 10:59 PM EST (#210713) #
Is JP the Jays' Dan Duquette?

Well, he definitely is if you ask Richard Griffin, who was able to redirect his Duquette-hate to Ricciardi for 8 years.

What's he gonna do now?

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