Therein lies much of the problem. It's difficult to comment without knowing the specifics of the budgeting, but if the Jays lose much of their draft budget on and are forced to take some signability picks during the 2010 amateur draft, it's going to come back to haunt us if Chapman busts.

Chapman's also more advanced than drafted players and would be the sort of bold, high-reward gamble that AA has argued, convincingly, is necessary. The upside is tantalizing, but the Jays will suffer if they have to stash Kei Igawa Part II in Las Vegas for the next four years.

Best of all, it happens right on-screen. It's an easy and convenient way to manage your home phone calls when you’re watching your favourite shows. And you get a share in a tall Cuban lefty.

Agreed - I really enjoyed that.

I wonder what that would be like.

This is the start back to respectability, a setting the tone for the future.   Players wondering about signing here can see this team isn't shy about paying for value.   Overbay, Downs, Frasor. Gonzales, Buck, Encarnacion are free agents after 2010 (unless traded).   Who are their replacements, because we don't have that much in our minor system for internal replacement.   Spending money is relative, only when it's spent, until then it's provocation.

Sorry to side track the Chapman posts...but just read that the Cubbies are interested in some RP, in particular Frasor. Hmmm...does anyone know off the top of their heads if the Cubs have any excess OFs (other than Reed Johnson)?

They don't seem to have a good fit, at least in terms of major league ready talent. The non-starting OFers who played for Chicago last year are Johnson (a FA), Bobby Scales (a career minor leaguer), Jake Fox (traded to Oakland), So Taguchi and Tyler Colvin, a former first-round pick that they hasn't really panned out. In terms of Triple-A, the Cubs have John-Ford Griffin, Jason Dubois, Brad Snyder and some of the above names. Nobody is a prospect, aside from Colvin who seems to profile as a reserve.

A couple of names in the lower minors appeal to me in Hak-Ju Lee (a SS prospect stuck behind Starlin Castro) and Kyler Burke (another OF prospect). If the Jays could get either of those guys, and possibly a low-minors throw-in like Brooks Raley, that would be a deal worth making.

If the Jays sign Chapman, I won't quibble - They must like what their scouts reported - but the top 6/7 latin prospects signed for less than 20mil in total

last year and I think that would be a better gamble.

Interesting article by Will Hill on TSN.ca about the possibility of the Jays moving Travis Snider:

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=304414

Most people use italics to quote another poster. Try using "i" instead of "quote", surrounded by arrows on both sides, and that should work to italicize it.

Or at least he had written for a Rays-centric blog before joining MLBTR

Well, don't assume that because someone writes for a *ays-centric site that they are necessarily a *ays FAN!

;-)

By Will Hill I think you mean Daan De Kerpel (whoever the hell that is) and by interesting I think you mean pointless and amateurish.

Exactly, Chuck.

I'm really not sure why TSN.ca offers De Kerpel such bandwidth and profile, considering he offers no inside perspective and very little in the way of interesting analysis or style.  I'm also not sure how his perspective differs from Will Hill's other than to be less informed.  I wish I knew who in the TSN hierarchy said, "You know what?  What the Toronto market really needs is another voice to reiterate that things are bleak for the Blue Jays."

TSN needs Magpie, in other words.

I am late to the party here but here are some thoughts:

If the Jays sign Chapman over the Yankees and the Red Sox it won't be because of the Yankees and Sox watching their budgets, it won't be because Beeston has a special relationship with the Hendricks brothers or it won't be because Canada is friendlier to Cuba than the US.  It will be because of dollars.  And the only way the Jays outbid the Yankees and Sox will be because the Jays value Chapman as a starter while the others value him as a reliever.  Chapman throws hard but doesn't have much offspeed pitches.  Think of him as a variation of Brandon Morrow or Zach Stewart.  What would those guys be worth?  I am not sure but it will be a lot less as a releiver than as a starter.  That is the key question that all the scouts and front office people have to answer.

Once you have answered that you have then to consider the "Cuba" question.  As Jim notes few Cuban's have lived up to their reputation.  Many have fallen prey to the easy access to food and alocohol in North America having lived in a society that limits your access to those in Cuba, as well as the normal access to millions of dollars.

I am not saying don't sign Chapman but I would put him in the high risk, high reward category.

I think the Box would demand that both Brown and Drabek be in TSN's return package. Halladay was a year away from free agency, but Magpie is locked in to a longer deal.

It's also expected that Chapman will choose between the Angels and Jays within the next 3 or 4 days.

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marlins/2010/01/florida-marlins-still-in-the-game-for-chapman-uggla-to-stay-put.html

Very interesting to see the Jays mobilizing $21-million and becoming finalists in the Chapman auction.  This move, along with the Halladay and Morrow trades, certainly gives a clear idea of a strategic vision for the future.  I was wondering how on earth the Jays would persuade any fans to attend games in 2010.  The new strategy, I guess, is to create excitement with the acquisition of young talented players who provide hope for the future and could actually play games for the Jays this season, even if (in some cases) it might only be in September.  The fan base will not totally abandon the Jays if the team has enough good young prospects to provide a narrative for 2010 and 2011 and the future.   Even if the Jays ultimately fail to sign Chapman, it's exciting to see them in contention up to the last minute.

Some other quick points that should be made (assuming that the report of the $21-million offer is factually accurate): 

1) the money for the Chapman contract offer cannot possibly be taken from the draft budget -- this is clearly an absurd concern.  I don't see how the Jays would be so rigid and arbitrary as to insist that the $21-million must be removed from the budget for signing draft picks. The Jays have proven in the past that they have an ability to do creative and flexible budgeting, and I presume that the Chapman offer is an example of that.

2) will Jim finally admit that Dice-K is a poor "comp" for the Chapman situation?  If it takes only $21-million to become a finalist for Chapman, that's a lot less than the $103-million that the Red Sox spent to acquire the rights to Dice-K and to sign him to a contract.

3) I've got to question Gerry's argument that the Jays could never outbid the Yankees or Red Sox unless the Jays project Chapman as a starter while the others project him as a reliever.  Clearly the Jays and Angels project him as a starter, and I find it hard to believe that their scouts could be totally at odds with every other scout.  The Red Sox offered him $15-million, which doesn't sound like the money you'd throw at someone who projects as a middle reliever (although with Boston you can never be sure).  The difference between the Jays offer and the Red Sox offer is significant, but not so massive that it can be explained by a difference in scouting conclusions.  Without knowing for sure, I'd have to guess that the Red Sox are projecting Chapman as a starter too.  If the Jays are outbidding the Red Sox and Yankees on this one, I think there is some other explanation, which we don't know for sure yet.

4) is it time to abandon the cliche that the Jays have "crippled themselves for the forseeable future" with the Vernon Wells contract?  Yes, it is a burdensome contract, and it does constrain the Jays to some extent, but it doesn't "cripple" the team and it doesn't prevent the Jays from finding $21-million for an unproven 21-year-old prospect if they want to find the money.

5) if the Jays actually do sign Chapman to a $21-million deal, I'll admit that my own doom-and-gloom concerns about the penny-pinching attitude of the Jays owners may have been misplaced.  If the owners are simply pocketing the savings from the trading or dumping of Halladay, Rolen, Rios, etc -- along with the failed draft acquisitions of last season -- it's a very negative scenario.  If they're taking some of the savings and channelling it into the acquisition of young talent, that's a more positive scenario.

I think we need to actually sign him for it to be a great sign.  The aggressive pursuit of him is a nice sign, but having a good scouting department isn't terribly important for free agents. For example, Say the Braves have an excellent scouting department: a perfectly viable strategy to sign free agents would be to go after the same guys they do and offer more. 

Closing this deal is critical to establishing that we are "players again".

1. Marcum
2. Rzepczynski
3. Morrow
4. Romero
5. Cecil

1. Litsch
2. McGowan
3. Chapman
4. Stewart
5. Drabek

I agree that the Yanks and Red Sox aren't limitless in their budgets, and that they might be more likely to spend their money on current free agents.  But they do have the money there if its needed unlike many teams. Rest assured that if Strasburg was a FA that it'd be down to those two in the bidding.  So I do think the fact that the Sox/Yanks aren't necessarily the top contenders in this speaks to Chapman not being a sure thing- as a reliever or a starter.

At the same time I'm absolutely delighted with the move to acquire another high ceiling prospect such as Chapman and agree that it is a great step. We just have to close the deal now, even if that means outbidding the Angels when the chips are down.  Its nice to know the money is there, and I'd hope that we could divert it to other latin american FA's if we fail, but anything short of adding Chapman will represent a loss.

According to MLBTR Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are "trying like crazy" to sign Chapman. Does this indicate maybe the Jays have the upper hand? Probably not, but I'd like to think so...

        Two comps as I see it ... Brien Taylor of the Yankee$ and James Paxton Jr of Kentucky.   All three are lefthanded pitchers and have no MLB experience. All three wanted a lot of money.   Two of the three presently have really good fast balls.  One of the three have a good secondary pitch.  One signed for a whole bunch of money and never pitched in the majors. One is about to sign for $21Million , possibly with the Jays, while the other (the guy with the secondary pitch) is still in university , possibly ineligible to pitch for his school because ... ?  Scott Boras, as named by Paul Beeston, acted as his agent and the Jays wouldn't cough up an additional $200,000 to reach an agreement. There seems to be somewhat of a discrepancy or perhaps more accurately, a somewhat large brainfart here.  Besides holding their nose , what should the Jays do ?

        My 2 cents says forget Chapman, buy Paxton a ticket to Mexico, have him sign a contract with a Mexican professional team, have him play in a game, purchase the contract from the team and show him the money... then take the savings and set up a baseball academy in Cuba and then , fill out the paperwork and be creative. 

BCANA - WOW

hun? I dont get it?

Regardless of how you spell it, you've still forgotten Morrow......