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As several loyal Bauxites have pointed out, ESPN has reported the Jays hosted a private workout for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman in their Dunedin spring training facility with both of his agents present. Despite saying earlier in the offseason that the team wouldnít be a player for Chapman, Anthopolous and the front office likely must have some genuine interest in Chapman in order for him to agree to the private throwing session.

The Red Sox offered Chapman $15 million earlier this offseason, which he turned down. So, either his demands have decreased or the Jays are demonstrating interest despite the fact it will possibly take upwards of $20 million to sign him. Iím still not convinced the Jays will win a bidding war if the Yankees, Red Sox or a similar big-market team truly wants Chapman, but it seems the Jays are not letting the rumoured price tag eliminate them from the talks. As several Bauxites have speculated, there may, however small, be an advantage in being the only Canadian team in the bidding war.

While the fact the Jays are interested in Chapman is exciting news, it raises larger questions. If they are going to submit an eight-figure offer to Chapmanís agents, where is this money coming from? Will this take away from the money Anthopolous has said is earmarked for the upcoming amateur draft and Torontoís multiple high-round picks? If not, does this signal an increased commitment to the team from Rogers?

What do you think Bauxites? Is spending, say, $20-25 million or more on Chapman a wise investment for the Jays?

The Chapman Conundrum | 92 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
braden - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 02:27 PM EST (#210669) #
Edwin Encarnacion reportedly suffered first and second degree burns on his face in a fireworks accident in the Dominican Republic.  He should be able to resume his offseason workout program in two weeks.
LouisvilleJayFan - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 02:31 PM EST (#210670) #
I would LOVE to see the Jays get Chapman. However, the major (and obvious) difference between the Jays getting him and any of those other teams is that the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. can afford for him to fail. If Chapman becomes a bust or is even major league average, it may well cripple the Toronto franchise for the foreseeable future.



92-93 - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 02:45 PM EST (#210671) #
A 25m contract spread over 4-5 years shouldn't ever cripple a franchise, no matter how hard he busts. Would love to see this happen.
ayjackson - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 02:50 PM EST (#210672) #
Well it certainly fits under our $16m amateur budget.  The fact that the Yankees and Red Sox don't seem to be overly interested and are trying to keep to a budget this year is a good reason to step in and take advantage.  In other years, this may not have been an option.
Moe - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:13 PM EST (#210673) #
A 25m contract spread over 4-5 years shouldn't ever cripple a franchise, no matter how hard he busts.

I agree, especially if you don't pay much this year and wait for the Ryan and Overbay contracts to expire. Then there is some money to spend on FAs, but considering that the team won't compete this sort of spending makes sense. HOWEVER, this is only true if (1) the Jays have the "silo" budgets most assume they have and (b) this would count against the major league payroll budget.

Imo, it makes no sense to spend that sort of money if it limits other draft and international FA signings. Think about how many players you can sign for this type of money in the DM and the draft. So, this really comes down to they way the budget is structured, if the Jays have x million to spend however they please, don't do it. If they have y for the big league team and z for the minors/draft, I would do if if it counts against the y for the big league team. In that case it's a much better investment than signing some veteran next year who contributes to a rebuilding team in 2011 and 2012.

Thomas - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:17 PM EST (#210674) #
If Chapman becomes a bust or is even major league average, it may well cripple the Toronto franchise for the foreseeable future.

Therein lies much of the problem. It's difficult to comment without knowing the specifics of the budgeting, but if the Jays lose much of their draft budget on and are forced to take some signability picks during the 2010 amateur draft, it's going to come back to haunt us if Chapman busts.

Chapman's also more advanced than drafted players and would be the sort of bold, high-reward gamble that AA has argued, convincingly, is necessary. The upside is tantalizing, but the Jays will suffer if they have to stash Kei Igawa Part II in Las Vegas for the next four years.

Matthew E - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:27 PM EST (#210675) #
If Chapman becomes a bust or is even major league average, it may well cripple the Toronto franchise for the foreseeable future.

I wonder what that would be like.
Moe - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:44 PM EST (#210676) #
He will supposedly get a major league deal. If I understand it correctly, that means he will be added to the 40 men roster and optioned to the minors where he could spend up to 4 years. But since he is on the 40men roster, his salary should not count against the 16m (or whatever it is) budget for the minors. Maybe his bonus would count against the draft budget but that's it. Considering that after 2010 the team outside VW is relatively cheap, I see no budgetary problems.

So say it's 5/25m:
2010 - 1m
2011 - 2m
2012-2015 - 6m each
4m bonus

I rather gamble on that then paying Delgado or Damon or someone else that money guaranteed for a losing team.

Moe - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:45 PM EST (#210677) #
spend up to 4 years

sorry, of course it's 3 years.
Mylegacy - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:50 PM EST (#210678) #
Chapman is represented by the Hendricks Brothers - IF we can find a photograph of them meeting with Beeston this past weekend AND none of the three of them are wearing socks - WOW - we've as good as signed him! A sockless Beeston rocks!

Same size as Randy, same fastball as Randy but further along at his age - drool.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:52 PM EST (#210679) #
Why not sign him and trade him at the deadline for Mark Langston?
92-93 - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:57 PM EST (#210680) #
Iím still not convinced the Jays will win a bidding war if the Yankees, Red Sox or a similar big-market team truly wants Chapman

It would be in Chapman's best interests to stay away from those teams, assuming the offers are close. The Yanks & Sox don't have room in their rotations for development time - guys like Chamberlain, Hughes, and Buchholz would have become full-time starters for other clubs already. Chapman is better off signing with a team where his path to the majors can be accelerated, and he can wait on signing with a big-market team until he hits FA when he can be paid by them as a dependable, front-line starter.
Forkball - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 05:07 PM EST (#210681) #
where is this money coming from?

I don't get the impression that money is an issue for the team right now.  Including $6MM to send to the Phillies in the Halladay trade is exhibit A for that.  And because the long term success plan is to build from the bottom there's no need to throw money at free agents to chase down 88 wins. So the team likely has money to spend if it makes sense.

What contract is appropriate is another story.
Geoff - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 05:26 PM EST (#210682) #
where is this money coming from?

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Best of all, it happens right on-screen. It's an easy and convenient way to manage your home phone calls when youíre watching your favourite shows. And you get a share in a tall Cuban lefty.

Anders - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 05:27 PM EST (#210683) #
Matthew E - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 03:27 PM EST (#210675) #
If Chapman becomes a bust or is even major league average, it may well cripple the Toronto franchise for the foreseeable future.

I wonder what that would be like.

I think we have an early frontrunner for comment of the decade.
sduguid - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 07:12 PM EST (#210684) #

Agreed - I really enjoyed that.

 

I wonder what that would be like.

Mike Green - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 07:12 PM EST (#210685) #
A major league average starting pitcher getting paid, let's say, $50 million for the 6 years pre-free agency would not cripple the franchise.  It just would leave it no farther ahead.

Randy Johnson had one replacement level season, then three above average seasons, followed by two All-Star seasons.  The ideal, of course, is to have a pitcher who explodes on the league, but a second Randy Johnson would do fine. One can always dream...
TamRa - Saturday, January 02 2010 @ 07:48 PM EST (#210687) #
I think a lot of comments are showing a lot of low expectations for the management that hasn't been earned by the current regeim.

It is, in my opinion, a cinch that if signing Chapman were to impact the effectiveness of the 2010 draft we WON'T be in the market for him and, conversely, if we sign him, we can rest assured they ownership assured Beeston et al that it would have no impact on draft spending.

As to the cost, it makes perfect sense - IF you think he's really a #1 caliber guy - to use some of this year's money to front load a bonus that makes him affordable in future years.

for instance - a five year contract for $25 million (chosing a big figure here just to make the point) structured thusly:

Signing bonus - $10 million (coming directly out of money otherwise saved on the 2010 budget, particularly iff you are confident you can dump Overbay's entire salary)

'10-'14 = $3 mil per year

(of course you can be more complex with the salary for each year but this is an on-the-fly example)

If he doesn't arrive in the majors (for a full season) until at least 2012 then you have three years in the majors he goes to arbitration. The contract is basically paying for all his pre-arb service.

What that basically amounts to is that you are paying a $10 million premium on the front end for the right to develop him.


Put another way, look at Justin Verlander who got a 4.45 million major league guarantee contract when he was drafted. All told, he made about $5.1 million (not counting any potential performance bonuses) under the deal that took him up to his first arbitration season.

that's the going rate, or rather it was SIX YEARS AGO.

So if you were going to pay Chapman $25, you say $5 mil of that is the bottom of the market, $5 mil is the result of inflation on a deal like Verlander's (which is to say more or less what that kind of guy would get today as a top draft pick) and the rest is the premium you pay for the privilidge of winning the bidding war....which if you get 6 years service time out of him that means you $1.67 mil a year you are "paying forward"

or, for a more current example, Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg wasn't a free agent and is said to be better than Chapman so that balances off a bit.

Strasburg signed for an AAV of 3.775 so if you gave the same AAV to Chapman you pay him almost $19 million - and in this example the "premium" that you have to "pay forward" is a little over $6 million.

I said all that to say this - IF (and it is an all important IF) - IF you think Chapman is a legitimate Ace worthy of the Jonson comparisons, and if you think his health will hold up and he won't go to peices before he can pay off, then offering him $25 million is an easy "yes" IMO.

Maybe a bit more.


Richard S.S. - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 08:44 AM EST (#210696) #

This is the start back to respectability, a setting the tone for the future.   Players wondering about signing here can see this team isn't shy about paying for value.   Overbay, Downs, Frasor. Gonzales, Buck, Encarnacion are free agents after 2010 (unless traded).   Who are their replacements, because we don't have that much in our minor system for internal replacement.   Spending money is relative, only when it's spent, until then it's provocation.

Jim - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 09:36 AM EST (#210697) #
that's the going rate, or rather it was SIX YEARS AGO.

That has absolutely nothing to do with this situation.  Being locked into one team and being able to negotiate with 30 is totally different.  Strasburg would have gotten at least $50-60 million if he was a free agent.
John Northey - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 09:54 AM EST (#210698) #
This is an interesting situation.  Chapman has some tough choices himself to make.  If he signs with the Yankees or Red Sox he would probably get more up front than he would with anyone else.  However, with a team that is likely to be sub-500 in 2010 he has an increased chance of actual ML service time in 2010/2011.  Get that extra year or two of service time in now will mean millions more in 6-7 years as a free agent vs starting arbitration/free agency later.  Mix in quality of infield defense (the Jays having two high caliber shortstops and a high end second baseman up the middle) and it gets more tempting one would think.  Hopefully he doesn't know just how ugly the outfield defense could be though :P  As others have stated it might be easier for him to get family out of Cuba if he plays in Canada rather than in the USA as well.

Lots of stuff to consider if you are a kid given his second major life altering baseball decision to make (first being to defect - I'd put having a child ahead of anything else though).  One wonders how big the various potential rewards are for him (World Series more likely as a Yankee, short term vs long term cash, potential to get family out of Cuba, culture that is conducive to players from the Caribbean, etc.) and how the Jays are marketing it to him.
Geoff - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 12:41 PM EST (#210702) #
Get that extra year or two of service time in now will mean millions more in 6-7 years as a free agent vs starting arbitration/free agency later.

If that extra year or two of ML service is either A. successful or B. useful to his development in future years, then it is attractive for later years. But if he's either a failure or is feeling crushed by too much pressure, too soon in his new environment, then you have the other side of the coin.

I still can't understand how, after all the players to have left Cuba in the last decade and a half -- who have families, one presumes -- why they would not have been greatly attracted to the Jays if they had anything to offer in diplomatic relations that would make a difference in negotiation. Are Canadian immigration officials just not impressed with all the other Cuban players, but for this guy they will grant visas to his closest family? Is Beeston that powerful that he can grant citizenship to anyone in the world he pleases?

I find it just as likely a story as if Chapman wants to come here because he has acquired a taste for Tim Horton's coffee and doughnuts.
Blue in SK - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 02:25 PM EST (#210703) #

Sorry to side track the Chapman posts...but just read that the Cubbies are interested in some RP, in particular Frasor. Hmmm...does anyone know off the top of their heads if the Cubs have any excess OFs (other than Reed Johnson)?

TamRa - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 04:40 PM EST (#210704) #
that's the going rate, or rather it was SIX YEARS AGO.

That has absolutely nothing to do with this situation.  Being locked into one team and being able to negotiate with 30 is totally different.  Strasburg would have gotten at least $50-60 million if he was a free agent.

The "six years ago" remark wasn't about Strasburg. It was about Verlander who was sort of the Strasburg of his day - and it wasn't about what either player would have gotten as a free agent.

The reason I cited Verlander was as an illustration of the MINIMUM one could expect to pay (then) for a #1 draft pick through six years of major league service.

i.e. - to illustrate a "floor" of what a team would spend ANYWAY even if the player in question were their exclusive property.

I already said that Chapman being a free agent meant that you would have to pay more than that for the right to pay him that much. It was kinda the whole point of the post.

Apparently either I don't communicate worth a damn or you just simply refuse to let one of my posts go by without arguing with it.

which argument is cool if you'd just argue with what I was actually saying.

TamRa - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 04:57 PM EST (#210705) #
Overbay, Downs, Frasor. Gonzales, Buck, Encarnacion are free agents after 2010 (unless traded). Who are their replacements, because we don't have that much in our minor system for internal replacement.

a. Encarnacion isn't a FA until after 2011. His current contract ends this year but he still has an arb year after that.

b. you are overstating the problem with replacements.

Overbay - Wallace is his replacement, maybe even before he reaches free agency. if something happens there you have Lind, Dopirak, and eventually Cooper in line there (theoretically, even Arencibia at some point of d'Arnoud takes his spot.

Buck - Arencibia, followed by d'Arnoud

Downs and Frasor - the bullpen is deepest of all. Let's look at the list:

Starters - the ones who miss out on the rotation become defacto potential relievers - who should be major league ready already or by opening day 2011:

Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzep, Cecil, Richmond, Purcey, Ray, Mills, Stewart, and maybe Drabek

Only five of those guys will be in the 2011 rotation (obviously)

Relievers besides those who are now Jays and could potentially still be on the roster in 2011 (i.e. are not scheduled for free agency and will be major league ready)-

Accardo
Carlson
Tallet
Janssen
Roenicke
Camp
Hayhurst
and probably Farquhar.


so there are 12-13 possibilities for the 2011 bullpen, without counting Frasor or Downs, as many as five of whom have been closers or are said to be potential quality closers.

The bullpen is NOT an issue for the forseeable future, any more than the rotation is.



On the other hand, you are correct that there's no high-level alternative at SS (albeit gonzalez has a 2011 option) nor at 3B (assuming Wallace is indeed going to 1B).

Those, along with RF if indeed the jays are married to the idea Snider can't handle it, are the positions where alex still has to find some quality players who are closer to the majors.

As it stands, Seirra is probably first in line for RF and should be here any earlier than 2012 unless he takes a big leap.

Ahrens and jackson are at least three years away if they make it at all, and for those who prefer Pastornicky the same applies to him.


I still would like to see the Jays motivate the Dodgers to give up DeJesus, Jr.

Thomas - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 05:08 PM EST (#210706) #
Hmmm...does anyone know off the top of their heads if the Cubs have any excess OFs (other than Reed Johnson)?

They don't seem to have a good fit, at least in terms of major league ready talent. The non-starting OFers who played for Chicago last year are Johnson (a FA), Bobby Scales (a career minor leaguer), Jake Fox (traded to Oakland), So Taguchi and Tyler Colvin, a former first-round pick that they hasn't really panned out. In terms of Triple-A, the Cubs have John-Ford Griffin, Jason Dubois, Brad Snyder and some of the above names. Nobody is a prospect, aside from Colvin who seems to profile as a reserve.

A couple of names in the lower minors appeal to me in Hak-Ju Lee (a SS prospect stuck behind Starlin Castro) and Kyler Burke (another OF prospect). If the Jays could get either of those guys, and possibly a low-minors throw-in like Brooks Raley, that would be a deal worth making.

China fan - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 05:38 PM EST (#210707) #
Geoff, you're completely missing the point about Chapman and the Cuban situation.  I tried to explain this in the earlier thread.   Obviously, in the Chapman auction, the Jays can't compete with the Red Sox and the Yankees on contract money or playoff chances, so AA presumably wouldn't have gotten involved in the bidding UNLESS he believed that the Jays might have some OTHER advantage -- i.e. Canada's relationship with Cuba and the possibility that Cuba might finally be ready to accept MLB contracts for some of its nationals.  This would help to explain why the Jays weren't able to sign Cubans in earlier years but might now have a chance.  If the Cubans are now flirting with the idea of accepting an MLB contract for one of its nationals -- a deal that would send money to Cuba while allowing the player's family to move to Canada -- it would be more likely to happen with a Canadian team than an American team.  Hence the possibility that the Jays might have a chance to sign Chapman, even if their contract offer isn't quite as rich as what the Red Sox or Yankees could offer.  Of course this is all speculative, but it's a plausible explanation for why the Jays would have a chance to sign a Cuban this year, even though they were unable to do so in the past.
Mylegacy - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 06:11 PM EST (#210708) #
Chinafan - I understand your point - however Chapman's friendship with Kendry Morales trumps all else. IF - the deals on the table are anywhere near close I'm sure Chapman will go with his "friend" and stay in the Latin American environment of Southern California and go with the Angels.

To me the real "lesson" here is that clearly AA is thinking out side the usual Blue Jays box. Clearly AA has removed the blinkers and is looking at everything. Even if nothing comes of it - it's great for us to be so engaged with the team in early January in the first year after Roy's Reign.
Jim - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 06:36 PM EST (#210709) #
which argument is cool if you'd just argue with what I was actually saying.

You wasted an awful lot of words to not make that point I guess.  It's an absolute waste of time to try and extrapolate what Chapman is going to get based on what Verlander and Strasburg received because the situations have almost nothing in common.  Matsuzaka, Contreras, Igawa, Irabu and company would be much better comps. 

The Chapman situation is the living, breathing embodiment of 'The Winner's Curse'.  I'd sit out on the high profile Cubans until one lives up to the hype (granting that Morales had a great 2009 but he only got 4.5 million for 6 years).
Moe - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 07:22 PM EST (#210710) #
You wasted an awful lot of words to not make that point I guess.  It's an absolute waste of time to try and extrapolate what Chapman is going to get based on what Verlander and Strasburg received because the situations have almost nothing in common.  Matsuzaka, Contreras, Igawa, Irabu and company would be much better comps. 

Of course these guys are the better comps to figure out what he will get. But if the question is how much would you pay a similarly high regarded draft pick for his first until he reaches arbitration, Verlander is a great starting point. Now, you may ask why would one do that? Well, as Will said, to figure out how expensive 25m really is.

If a guy you draft and you have full control over already 10m, it's only 15m extra, which is about what you have to pay to get Marlon Byrd on the open market. In that case I would do it.  

If a guy you draft that high only gets 3-4m, we suddenly talk about a 20-22m gap, now it starts to hurt a bit more.


The Chapman situation is the living, breathing embodiment of 'The Winner's Curse'.  I'd sit out on the high profile Cubans until one lives up to the hype (granting that Morales had a great 2009 but he only got 4.5 million for 6 years).

This is true for almost any FA signing. And considering the Jays play in the AL East, gambling said 15m on Chapman rather than on Byrd is the better idea.

And as I and others have said above, this only makes sense if the money comes from the major league payroll budget and not the draft/minor league budget. Then all this means is not being able to sign some mid tier FA next summer to help the team win 75 games in 2011.
John Northey - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 09:28 PM EST (#210711) #
Of course the Jays budget for the draft and international free agents has been rumoured to be $16 million which most view as far above what others would be budgeting. If this kid gets a multi-year deal then just year one would be part of that budget thus creative accounting (Beeston is a master of this) mixed with back loading could make it work in this years budget quite smoothly.
Mike Green - Sunday, January 03 2010 @ 10:00 PM EST (#210712) #
Here is a Clay Davenport note on Chapman from August.  Davenport suggests that Chapman has essentially had the statistical look of a dominant pitcher in the Midwest League through age 19-21 with control issues.  He really ought to spend a year (at least) in the high minors, from a development and confidence perspective.

I wouldn't vouch for the major league translation numbers.  I would bet that the K and BB rates are probably fairly accurate, but the HR rate is probably higher than Chapman would have given up. 
TamRa - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 01:57 AM EST (#210714) #
You wasted an awful lot of words to not make that point I guess.  It's an absolute waste of time to try and extrapolate what Chapman is going to get based on what Verlander and Strasburg received because the situations have almost nothing in common. 

It's not relevant, when discussing what Chapman will make, to say up front "he'll make more than a #1 draft pick" and then see what the most expensive #1 draft pick made in order to say "this is your floor"?

It's not relevant to say that such a #1 draft pick made X dollars over his pre-free agency career in order to say "this is the minimum you will spend if you draft a pitcher first overall" as a way to examine how much of what Chapman will make is what you would pay more than what you would pay for a comperable #1 pick?

Meh. I think it's a perfectly reasonable point.



Matsuzaka, Contreras, Igawa, Irabu and company would be much better comps.

Bull.

Matsuzaka was a veteran who could step directly into the majors, Chapman isn't that at all.

Same with the other two japanese guys and Contrares.

further, Contrares was seven years ago.

You can't any easier make a comparison between a 27 year old veteran and a 22 year old who's still a year or two from the majors than you can between a draft pick and a free agent.


On the other hand, it's perfectly reasonable to say something like this:

"If the Blue Jays had had the #1 draft pick in 2009 they would have had to spend $15 million to sign Strasburg. given that Chapman is a free agent, he will make more money assuming he's in the same ballpark talent-wise. So we know that the bidding for Chapman will be AT LEAST $16 and going upward from that."
(That based on the Strasburg comment)

and also to say:

"If we look at Justin Verlander, you can total how much the last 'Strasburg -like' pitching prospect will total before free agency in order to find a MINIMMUM total amount of what you would spend on chapman IF he had been the #1 draft pick and use that figure as a baseline in order to understand how much MORE you are paying for Chapman because he's a free agent."
(and that on the Verlander point)
They may be poorly communicated thoughts but they are - I believe - basic to analyzing how much you will want to bid for Chapman.

If a person such as yourself says "I'm not in favor of signing the big expensive risk" then, of course, there's no need for you to calculate what level of risk you are willing to take.

The obvious thing to do here then, would be simply to state this:

The Chapman situation is the living, breathing embodiment of 'The Winner's Curse'.  I'd sit out on the high profile Cubans until one lives up to the hype


And move on rather than mucking about in a train of thought in which you do not wish to engage in the first place.
85bluejay - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 01:59 AM EST (#210715) #

If the Jays sign Chapman, I won't quibble - They must like what their scouts reported - but the top 6/7 latin prospects signed for less than 20mil in total

last year and I think that would be a better gamble.

Jim - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 08:11 AM EST (#210716) #
So we know that the bidding for Chapman will be AT LEAST $16 and going upward from that."

We don't have to argue about it anymore, but this whole premise is just wrong.  Chapman doesn't have a 16 million dollar floor because that is what Strasburg got.  I know you don't get this, but the two negotiations have nothing to do with each other.  Strasburg had a binary decision and a hard deadline.  Chapman can negotiate with any of 30 teams.  If Chapman bombed his auditions he most certainly could sign for less then $16 million.  The floor on Chapman is probably much higher then $16 million since even well above that number small market teams would take a flier based on the hype and the general good publicity they would get. 

The monetary value of Chapman might be different then Contreras because of his age and when he'll potentially contribute, but the situation is 100x more similar.  Contreras was a free agent who teams weren't able to scout often and had to rely on workouts.  This isn't signing a draft pick by the deadline who only has 2 mostly poor options at his disposal, this is trying to value an mostly unknown quantity against potentially every other team in the league. 

The basis for Chapman's value is simple.  It's how many wins do you think he's worth times how much is a win worth to you.  How much you are willing to pay above and beyond that is based on obvious factors.  Unless you think you can watch his WBC performances and have an idea of how many wins he is worth in the majors the next 6 years there is no way for someone who isn't a professional scout with access to his workouts to try and assess his 'value'. 

Just because I can find a better use for tens of millions of dollars then signing one pitcher with no track record stateside doesn't mean I can't point out that you are comparing apples and oranges.  Chapman's a better pitcher then Carlos Silva and his negotiations have more in common, you might as well pull his contract out of the air and call it his floor. 

Jim - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 08:15 AM EST (#210717) #
Sorry, could really use the ability to edit.

If Chapman was in Strasburg's ballpark talent wise then Toronto couldn't be involved.  Strasburg would easily get $60 million and probably more like $70-$90 if he was a free agent.  

LouisvilleJayFan - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 01:36 PM EST (#210731) #
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/remaining-top-50-free-agents.html

I know pretty much everybody here checks that site already. One interesting thing about MLBtraderumors.com though, the guy who runs it is a Jays fan so I'm sure as objective as he may be a little bias might sneak in every now and then. I hope he's right though!

ayjackson - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 02:06 PM EST (#210734) #
Tim Dierkes is a Jays fan?
LouisvilleJayFan - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 02:28 PM EST (#210737) #
Yea, it was either in one of his chats or when he was on DrunkJaysFans that he mentioned it. I just remember thinking that it was kind of cool.
Maldoff - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 02:31 PM EST (#210738) #

Interesting article by Will Hill on TSN.ca about the possibility of the Jays moving Travis Snider:

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=304414

Denoit - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 02:55 PM EST (#210740) #
I think the article is a little rediculous. Out of all the left handed bats the Jays  have Snider's could be the best, why would you trade him? For a high ceiling arm? are you serious... pitchers are a much bigger risk than a hitter. Or how about a more athletic outfeilder...just ask the twins how Carlos Gomez is doing. Snider is excatly what the Jays need, a young controllable player to go with the group of players they have already aquired. And questions about his defence in left are a little premature. He is a 22 year old athlete in a big body, maybe if he was 32 I would begin to worry about it.
Chuck - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 04:52 PM EST (#210744) #
Interesting article by Will Hill on TSN.ca

By Will Hill I think you mean Daan De Kerpel (whoever the hell that is) and by interesting I think you mean pointless and amateurish.
Ryan Day - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 05:52 PM EST (#210745) #
I'm not sure why people are so eager to move Snider to DH. He's about an average corner outfielder - he's not going to win a gold glove, but he's not going to hurt the team in left, either. Will he need to move to DH in 4-5 years? Maybe, but that's something to worry about then; in 2-3 years, the team will have to make a decision on whether to keep Adam Lind long-term, and will know for sure what they've got in Wallace and Cooper.

If someone wants to make a great offer for Snider, sure, listen, but there's no need to move him.

Mike Green - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 08:53 PM EST (#210749) #
I don't know.  UZR has Snider with a positive range rating and a negative arm rating.  TZ has him with a significantly negative range rating and a neutral arm.  My observation of him is that he will struggle to be an average defensive corner outfielder, and that this is likely to affect his offensive development.  I think of Willie Stargell, whose best years occurred in his 30s.  Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines could have been centerfielders and Mike Schmidt could have been a shortstop, but their clubs (rightly in my view) decided that the effort to push them to the limits of their defensive capacities was not worth it. 
Ryan Day - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 09:14 PM EST (#210752) #
On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera spent several years floundering about with the glove at third and in left, and it doesn't appear to have hurt his offensive development. People talked about moving Mike Piazza out from behind the plate for almost his entire career, and Ryan Braun's spent three years being a horrible defender in left and at third.

I guess it's possible that Snider's struggles in the field could hurt his offensive development, but it's also possible he could be slowed down if he's not psychologically prepared for the DH role. I'd say let things play out, and adjust if necessary.

jabalong - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 10:29 PM EST (#210753) #
This is a good point.

Given the option, I'd much rather take this money and roll the dice on half a dozen top Latin prospects, rather than throw it all on one young guy who happens to have caused a stir at the moment.

And while we don't know, if this money is going to cut into the amateur draft money then forget it, as I'd much rather see the Jays sign all their top picks and not repeat last year's draft signing failure.



jabalong - Monday, January 04 2010 @ 10:33 PM EST (#210754) #
Er, the point I was replying to was this one:

"If the Jays sign Chapman, I won't quibble - They must like what their scouts reported - but the top 6/7 latin prospects signed for less than 20mil in total last year and I think that would be a better gamble."

(How do I do quotes in this HTML formatting? It's foreign to me as the old [quote]...[/quote] doesn't seem to be in play here.)
Spifficus - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 02:37 AM EST (#210757) #
It was Ben Nicholson-Smith that was the Jays fan, not Dierkes. If I remember, Ben was filling in while Tim lightened his workload for a few months in preparation for parenthood. Dierkes is a Cubs fan.
TamRa - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 04:40 AM EST (#210759) #
I was always under the impression that BNS was a Rays fan...

Or at least he had written for a Rays-centric blog before joining MLBTR

As for the previous argument about Chapman, while I have no ability to place bets, I'd be willing to risk  a good bit if I could afford it on the proposition that Chapman's contract will be closer to Strasburg's than to $60 million. The midpoint there is about 37, 38 million - I don't think he'll get over $40 mil.


Thomas - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 08:28 AM EST (#210762) #
(How do I do quotes in this HTML formatting? It's foreign to me as the old [quote]...[/quote] doesn't seem to be in play here.)

Most people use italics to quote another poster. Try using "i" instead of "quote", surrounded by arrows on both sides, and that should work to italicize it.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 10:15 AM EST (#210763) #

Or at least he had written for a Rays-centric blog before joining MLBTR

Well, don't assume that because someone writes for a *ays-centric site that they are necessarily a *ays FAN!

;-)

Mike D - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 10:56 AM EST (#210764) #

By Will Hill I think you mean Daan De Kerpel (whoever the hell that is) and by interesting I think you mean pointless and amateurish.

Exactly, Chuck.

I'm really not sure why TSN.ca offers De Kerpel such bandwidth and profile, considering he offers no inside perspective and very little in the way of interesting analysis or style.  I'm also not sure how his perspective differs from Will Hill's other than to be less informed.  I wish I knew who in the TSN hierarchy said, "You know what?  What the Toronto market really needs is another voice to reiterate that things are bleak for the Blue Jays."

TSN needs Magpie, in other words.

Moe - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 11:29 AM EST (#210765) #
I'm not sure where to put this:

The Blue Jays: A trainwreck of pitching mechanics.
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2010/1/2/1230198/the-blue-jays-a-trainwreck-of

Nothing too new, but it puts the Jays pitching depth in perspective

Ryan Day - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 12:06 PM EST (#210766) #
I don't know how meaningful that article is, given the diverse list of players. McGowan was drafted under Ash, Drabek & Morrow by other teams and acquired by AA... Towers never had serious arm trouble, did he? (aside throwing 85-mph fasballs across the plate) Some of them were first-round talent, some of them were later finds....

I don't know anything about pitching mechanics, so I'm not going to say the author (whoever he is) is wrong, but that list doesn't have much in the way of analysis or depth. And heck, even if the Jays are acquiring pitchers with bad mechanics, they've gotten some good seasons out of pitchers no one had high expectations for.

Denoit - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 12:27 PM EST (#210767) #
I think if you look around the Majors every team has its issues of arm troubles. Its the nature of the beast. Pitching overhand is itself a very strenous activity and these guys are pushing their arms to the limit. Mechanics can play a factor but I would like to see a list/study of every team and their arm injuries for the last 5 years before I jump to conclusions. I think if you follow a certain team the injuries seem worse because you dont notice the other teams problems as much as yours. Just have a look at all the pitchers that have undergone Tommy John, its a widespread problem not just the Jays.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 03:57 PM EST (#210774) #
Just an alert for the stats-savvy.  Baseball Prospectus seems to have taken a step forward with the addition of Colin Wyers and Pizza Cutter, among others.  Keep an eye on them during the off-season. 
Gerry - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 05:17 PM EST (#210775) #

I am late to the party here but here are some thoughts:

If the Jays sign Chapman over the Yankees and the Red Sox it won't be because of the Yankees and Sox watching their budgets, it won't be because Beeston has a special relationship with the Hendricks brothers or it won't be because Canada is friendlier to Cuba than the US.  It will be because of dollars.  And the only way the Jays outbid the Yankees and Sox will be because the Jays value Chapman as a starter while the others value him as a reliever.  Chapman throws hard but doesn't have much offspeed pitches.  Think of him as a variation of Brandon Morrow or Zach Stewart.  What would those guys be worth?  I am not sure but it will be a lot less as a releiver than as a starter.  That is the key question that all the scouts and front office people have to answer.

Once you have answered that you have then to consider the "Cuba" question.  As Jim notes few Cuban's have lived up to their reputation.  Many have fallen prey to the easy access to food and alocohol in North America having lived in a society that limits your access to those in Cuba, as well as the normal access to millions of dollars.

I am not saying don't sign Chapman but I would put him in the high risk, high reward category.

 

Thomas - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 05:50 PM EST (#210777) #
TSN needs Magpie, in other words.

I think the Box would demand that both Brown and Drabek be in TSN's return package. Halladay was a year away from free agency, but Magpie is locked in to a longer deal.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 09:06 PM EST (#210785) #
Well, I know Brown has all five tools, but can he format a data table, that's what I want to know.  And  Drabek, forget about it.  After the TJ, there's no way he produces 3000 word pieces with any consistency at all. 
ayjackson - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 10:08 PM EST (#210787) #
MLBTR is quoting an unnamed source that the Chapman courtship is over and it's the Angels or Jays for $21m.
timpinder - Tuesday, January 05 2010 @ 11:12 PM EST (#210791) #

It's also expected that Chapman will choose between the Angels and Jays within the next 3 or 4 days.

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marlins/2010/01/florida-marlins-still-in-the-game-for-chapman-uggla-to-stay-put.html

John Northey - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 01:50 AM EST (#210797) #
Nice that the Jays appear to be one of the finalists. $21 million doesn't sound out of order for a top quality pitching prospect (high first round) given he is a free agent. Lets hope they don't end up bridesmaids.
TamRa - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 02:28 AM EST (#210798) #
If Chapman was in Strasburg's ballpark talent wise then Toronto couldn't be involved.  Strasburg would easily get $60 million and probably more like $70-$90 if he was a free agent. 


Quote:
The Marlins' maneuvering may be all for naught, however.  An unnamed source tells Rodriguez that the Angels and Blue Jays seem to be the favorites to sign the Cuban left-hander, and that Chapman will sign with one of the two clubs for "around $21MM."


Now, Chapman is acknowledged to not be as good as Strasburg - but he's not being compared to any other drafted pitchers at all, talent wise. He's closer to Strasburg than he is to whoever the previous #2 was.

Maybe it's just me but 21 is a helluva long way from 90.

TamRa - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 02:30 AM EST (#210799) #
By the way - if he's having a hard time deciding at $21, I'd drop another 3-4 mil in there and see if that cleared it up any.


China fan - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 04:08 AM EST (#210801) #

Very interesting to see the Jays mobilizing $21-million and becoming finalists in the Chapman auction.  This move, along with the Halladay and Morrow trades, certainly gives a clear idea of a strategic vision for the future.  I was wondering how on earth the Jays would persuade any fans to attend games in 2010.  The new strategy, I guess, is to create excitement with the acquisition of young talented players who provide hope for the future and could actually play games for the Jays this season, even if (in some cases) it might only be in September.  The fan base will not totally abandon the Jays if the team has enough good young prospects to provide a narrative for 2010 and 2011 and the future.   Even if the Jays ultimately fail to sign Chapman, it's exciting to see them in contention up to the last minute.

Some other quick points that should be made (assuming that the report of the $21-million offer is factually accurate): 

1) the money for the Chapman contract offer cannot possibly be taken from the draft budget -- this is clearly an absurd concern.  I don't see how the Jays would be so rigid and arbitrary as to insist that the $21-million must be removed from the budget for signing draft picks. The Jays have proven in the past that they have an ability to do creative and flexible budgeting, and I presume that the Chapman offer is an example of that.

2) will Jim finally admit that Dice-K is a poor "comp" for the Chapman situation?  If it takes only $21-million to become a finalist for Chapman, that's a lot less than the $103-million that the Red Sox spent to acquire the rights to Dice-K and to sign him to a contract.

3) I've got to question Gerry's argument that the Jays could never outbid the Yankees or Red Sox unless the Jays project Chapman as a starter while the others project him as a reliever.  Clearly the Jays and Angels project him as a starter, and I find it hard to believe that their scouts could be totally at odds with every other scout.  The Red Sox offered him $15-million, which doesn't sound like the money you'd throw at someone who projects as a middle reliever (although with Boston you can never be sure).  The difference between the Jays offer and the Red Sox offer is significant, but not so massive that it can be explained by a difference in scouting conclusions.  Without knowing for sure, I'd have to guess that the Red Sox are projecting Chapman as a starter too.  If the Jays are outbidding the Red Sox and Yankees on this one, I think there is some other explanation, which we don't know for sure yet.

4) is it time to abandon the cliche that the Jays have "crippled themselves for the forseeable future" with the Vernon Wells contract?  Yes, it is a burdensome contract, and it does constrain the Jays to some extent, but it doesn't "cripple" the team and it doesn't prevent the Jays from finding $21-million for an unproven 21-year-old prospect if they want to find the money.

5) if the Jays actually do sign Chapman to a $21-million deal, I'll admit that my own doom-and-gloom concerns about the penny-pinching attitude of the Jays owners may have been misplaced.  If the owners are simply pocketing the savings from the trading or dumping of Halladay, Rolen, Rios, etc -- along with the failed draft acquisitions of last season -- it's a very negative scenario.  If they're taking some of the savings and channelling it into the acquisition of young talent, that's a more positive scenario.

Denoit - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 09:27 AM EST (#210805) #
Great post China Fan, I think you got it right. This is definatly a great sign for the organization going forward.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 10:03 AM EST (#210806) #

I think we need to actually sign him for it to be a great sign.  The aggressive pursuit of him is a nice sign, but having a good scouting department isn't terribly important for free agents. For example, Say the Braves have an excellent scouting department: a perfectly viable strategy to sign free agents would be to go after the same guys they do and offer more. 

Closing this deal is critical to establishing that we are "players again".

 

uglyone - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 01:14 PM EST (#210815) #
I think the idea that the Yanks and Sox have limitless budgets to easily outbid anyone for anyone is wrong.Those two teams have already put themsleves over the luxyury threshhold, and both teams are still looking to improve their current teams NOW. If they DO have an extra $25 mil kicking around, they'd be much more eager to spend that on a free agent that can contribute right now, then on a prospect. They can't just throw money at Chapman just because - especially if it inhibits them from improving their current squads.

For teams like the Jays and Angels, of course, it makes much more sense.

For all the talk about the Jays losing Halladay and destroying their rotation, they could potentially be coming out with a very nice looking situation:

Starting Rotation 2010

  1. Marcum
  2. Rzepczynski
  3. Morrow
  4. Romero
  5. Cecil
In the wings potentiall even by midseason 2010:

  1. Litsch
  2. McGowan
  3. Chapman
  4. Stewart
  5. Drabek

That's quite a collection of young starting pitching talent, I'd say.

10 pitchers all with legit #2/#3 upside, at least, all fairly close to contributing.




Forkball - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 01:32 PM EST (#210817) #
I've got to question Gerry's argument that the Jays could never outbid the Yankees or Red Sox unless the Jays project Chapman as a starter while the others project him as a reliever.

I don't think you can lump all pitchers into either a 'starter' or 'reliever' pool.  If you think he has a high potential to be an ace you're going to be willing to pay him more than if you think he'll become a back-end starter.  The Sox certainly wouldn't pay $15 million for a relief prospect.  It's a risk / reward thing and they're apparently not going to go higher than that.  But because they have the resources to go out and sign a John Lackey they don't need to take as much risk as a team like the Jays.

The Jays aren't likely to compete, and probably shouldn't compete, with the Sox and Yankees for free agents.  So where they have to make up the difference is at the front end of the player acquisition spectrum.  And if you're doing that you're going to have to take a little bit more risk upfront.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 01:54 PM EST (#210818) #

I agree that the Yanks and Red Sox aren't limitless in their budgets, and that they might be more likely to spend their money on current free agents.  But they do have the money there if its needed unlike many teams. Rest assured that if Strasburg was a FA that it'd be down to those two in the bidding.  So I do think the fact that the Sox/Yanks aren't necessarily the top contenders in this speaks to Chapman not being a sure thing- as a reliever or a starter.

At the same time I'm absolutely delighted with the move to acquire another high ceiling prospect such as Chapman and agree that it is a great step. We just have to close the deal now, even if that means outbidding the Angels when the chips are down.  Its nice to know the money is there, and I'd hope that we could divert it to other latin american FA's if we fail, but anything short of adding Chapman will represent a loss.

 

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, January 06 2010 @ 08:11 PM EST (#210840) #
Based on recent updates at MLBTR, sounds like it's us or the Angels..
Denoit - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 08:56 AM EST (#210854) #

According to MLBTR Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are "trying like crazy" to sign Chapman. Does this indicate maybe the Jays have the upper hand? Probably not, but I'd like to think so...

Rich - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 01:56 PM EST (#210871) #
I'll be shocked if the Jays sign him.  Not only that the club would pony up that kind of dough but that he would choose Toronto over LA.  Unless Chapman has an aversion to the US (possible), loves hockey (doubtful), or desperately seeks a variety of fantastic ethnic food (who could blame him?), it's hard to see why he'd come.  The Angels have a better club and organization, great weather, and a nicer ballpark.  They also have a very strong Latino presence, which may or may not have any bearing on his decision. 

I'm from Toronto and have been a Jays fan all my life but even if I was good enough to be offered contracts by the Jays and Angels for the same money it wouldn't be easy to turn the Angels down.
ramone - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 02:06 PM EST (#210872) #
In Keith Law's recent chat he said the chances of the Jays getting Chapman is "very low".
jgadfly - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 02:40 PM EST (#210877) #

        Two comps as I see it ... Brien Taylor of the Yankee$ and James Paxton Jr of Kentucky.   All three are lefthanded pitchers and have no MLB experience. All three wanted a lot of money.   Two of the three presently have really good fast balls.  One of the three have a good secondary pitch.  One signed for a whole bunch of money and never pitched in the majors. One is about to sign for $21Million , possibly with the Jays, while the other (the guy with the secondary pitch) is still in university , possibly ineligible to pitch for his school because ... ?  Scott Boras, as named by Paul Beeston, acted as his agent and the Jays wouldn't cough up an additional $200,000 to reach an agreement. There seems to be somewhat of a discrepancy or perhaps more accurately, a somewhat large brainfart here.  Besides holding their nose , what should the Jays do ?

        My 2 cents says forget Chapman, buy Paxton a ticket to Mexico, have him sign a contract with a Mexican professional team, have him play in a game, purchase the contract from the team and show him the money... then take the savings and set up a baseball academy in Cuba and then , fill out the paperwork and be creative. 

 

jgadfly - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 03:09 PM EST (#210882) #
   I just read that Bo$ton are still in it with Chapman ... I would imagine that Luis Tiant may be doing some of the translating for Epstein .
LouisvilleJayFan - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 03:22 PM EST (#210884) #
Keith Law hates the Jays. I take anything he says about them with a grain of salt. I personally don't like him for his Tim Collins remarks.


92-93 - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 03:45 PM EST (#210885) #
Keith Law displays great subjectivity each time he's on PrimeTime. The notion that he hates the Jays is simply untrue, and he could last be heard drooling all over Wallace's bat and the acquisition of Morrow. Any beef he may have had with the organization likely departed with JP.
Mylegacy - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 03:54 PM EST (#210886) #
I'm not as down on KLaw as I was. I read all his stuff and I don't think he's that unbalanced. Though CLEARLY he was wrong big time on his thoughts as the Wells signing was unfolding.

On Chapman - While I continue to be intrigued - It's clear that many scouts/teams don't see him as a starter. IF they are right clearly the guy's not worth the 21 big ones being talked about. IF the Jays get him - he'd better turn into a starter or we're going to be seriously over invested in the guy. And then there is the Cuban history of guys under performing - being seduced by Western lifestyle and never  reaching their potential.

Chapman Conclusion: I'll be happy if we sign him and relieved if we don't. Sort of a win-win.

BCANA - WOW

Because of the NEW MINOR LEAGUE 2010 JAYS: Jenkins, Drabek, D'Arnaud, Marisnick, Wallace and maybe Chapman
COMBINED with guys like Stewart, Alvarez, Sierra, etc.,
AND our other young pitchers: Romero, Cecil, R-alphebetsoup-ski, Mills and Ray -
Not to mention Collins, Bell and Farquhar ---
AND our returning injured: Marcum, McGowan and Litsch
-
WOW, Even without Roy, this might just be the most interesting year to follow the Jays both in the Bigs and the Minors i out history!  Ain't it April yet?

MatO - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 04:11 PM EST (#210888) #
My understanding is that Law and AA are friendly if not actually friends.  I also got the impression  that Law softened his stance concerning the Jays considerably during that final year or so of JP's reign.
robertdudek - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 05:06 PM EST (#210890) #
The Chapman situation is the living, breathing embodiment of 'The Winner's Curse'.  I'd sit out on the high profile Cubans until one lives up to the hype (granting that Morales had a great 2009 but he only got 4.5 million for 6 years).

El Duque certainly had some brilliant moments with the Yankees and it can be argued that one of two of those world series titles might not have happened.

For me, there is no question that he lived up to the hype.
robertdudek - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 05:26 PM EST (#210891) #
Many have fallen prey to the easy access to food and alocohol in North America having lived in a society that limits your access to those in Cuba, as well as the normal access to millions of dollars.

I don't think getting alcohol in Cuba is a big problem. But it is more likely that baseball players in Cuba are more carefully scrutinized off the field than baseball players over here and in the US - and that this has had some impact.


robertdudek - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 05:31 PM EST (#210892) #
then take the savings and set up a baseball academy in Cuba and then

This just isn't going to happen while Raoul Castro is alive.
Denoit - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 05:53 PM EST (#210896) #

BCANA - WOW

hun? I dont get it?

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 07 2010 @ 11:07 PM EST (#210910) #
Denoit - it means the information contained within the lines started by "B" "C", "A", "N" and lastly "A" - contain information that yours truly, Mylegacy thinks is - WOW.

Nothing more nothing less - Don't you agree those lines contains lots of WOW?
mathesond - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 07:47 AM EST (#210918) #
"Denoit - it means the information contained within the lines started by "B" "C", "A", "N" and lastly "A" - contain information that yours truly, Mylegacy thinks is - WOW. Nothing more nothing less - Don't you agree those lines contains lots of WOW?"

Ya now, ML, if you changed one of the 'A's to an 'O', you could have spelled BACON - WOW. Most everyone can identify with that!
TamRa - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 03:48 PM EST (#210943) #
Because of the NEW MINOR LEAGUE 2010 JAYS: Jenkins, Drabek, D'Arnaud, Marisnick, Wallace and maybe Chapman
AND our other young pitchers: Romero, Cecil, R-alphebetsoup-ski, Mills and Ray -
COMBINED with guys like Stewart, Alvarez, Sierra, etc.,  and
Of course you add our returning injured: Marcum, McGowan and Litsch
Not to mention Collins, Bell and Farquhar ---


Howzat???



China fan - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 03:51 PM EST (#210944) #

Regardless of how you spell it, you've still forgotten Morrow......

Mylegacy - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 05:39 PM EST (#210947) #
Morrow, Morrow, Morrow, Morrow - there, now I've remembered him. Just makes it all the more WOW!

Jon Heyman over at SI.COM is JUST NOW reporting the Jays look like the high bidder at the moment for Chapman. He seems to indicate we're offering either 20 million, 23 million or 25 million. He also says that Chapman MAY make the decision by "Monday."

TamRa - Friday, January 08 2010 @ 07:34 PM EST (#210951) #
Rosenthal tweets Jays are favorite according to one of his sources...



Flex - Sunday, January 10 2010 @ 12:56 PM EST (#210979) #
The latest as of Sunday morning is that Chapman has signed a $30 million deal with a National League team.
Brent S - Sunday, January 10 2010 @ 01:49 PM EST (#210985) #
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports is speculating that it's the Reds with a 5 year/$30m contract. No final confirmation though.
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