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Just a quick thread to help everyone enjoy opening day as Wells & Lind hit home runs to start things off in a good way.

Click here to see it live.

To read a statistical preview go to Baseball Reference.

And yes, Snider is hitting 9th.

Firsts of the season...
  • First Blue Jay pitch of the season: Shawn Marcum 86 mph fastball (called strike)
  • First hit: Adam Lind
  • First HR: Vernon Wells
  • First Error: Encarnacion
  • First GIDP: Overbay
  • First DP turned: Overbay to Gonzalez to Marcum
  • First 'This Could Be It' Moment: Marcum 6+ no hit innings
  • First 'Cito is an idiot' Moment: Letting Marcum give up 3 run HR after he gave up first hit (if he pulled Marcum then that would've been the first - darned if you do, darned if you don't)
  • First Reliever: Scott Downs
  • Halladay First Non-Jay Win: Today
  • First Blown Save: Jason Frasor
  • And First Loss: Jason Frasor :(
Opening Day | 66 comments | Create New Account
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Alex Obal - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#213117) #
First time through, Marcum made the Rangers look inept with the changeup.

Encarnacion has jammed himself twice. Sign he's looking to use the whole field, maybe?
Mike Green - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#213118) #
Well, that was memorable.
christaylor - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#213119) #
That was most definitely fun to watch. More fun to be had, too.
Gerry - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#213120) #
Too bad about the wind tunnel, Cruz did not hit that ball well.
robertdudek - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#213121) #
Off topic...

Make sure you catch the defensive highlight of the day (so far): Mark Buerhle makes as good a play as I've ever seen a pitcher make.

China fan - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#213122) #

Well, that was frustrating.  A few quick thoughts:

1) Randy Ruiz needs to be in this lineup every day.  Bautista should be at 3B, Lind at LF and Ruiz at DH.  Outfield defence will suffer, but 3B defence might actually improve and the lineup will definitely have more punch.

2) Why do people attack Cito for putting Snider at the 9th slot in the lineup?  Snider is by far the youngest and most inexperienced hitter on the team.  It's not even totally clear that he deserves to be in the majors full-time.  You don't build a lineup based on "potential."  You base it on the here-and-now, and Snider hasn't yet proven that he should be higher than 9th in the lineup.

3) This will sound like piling-on after today's game, but I'm not convinced that Frasor has the right constitution to be the closer for an entire season.  I see him as a 7th and 8th inning guy, not a high-leverage high-pressure guy.  It's impressionistic, but I never feel that the opposing team quaking in its boots when the little guy trots out there. 

Mike Green - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#213123) #
All around baseball, the signs of spring are unmistakable and a ninth-inning loss cannot take that away.  Albert Pujols goes 4-5 with 2 homers.  Jason Heyward hits a 3 run shot in his first major league at-bat.  And Roy Halladay is still Roy Halladay. 
John Northey - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#213124) #
A reminder of how great Halladay is - he went 1 for 4 with an RBI today. Sheesh.

Of course, he was a bit of a wuss only going 7 IP and just 88 pitches - of course a 10 run lead is fairly safe one would think.
John Northey - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#213125) #
Best thing about this game? 3 hits each for the two guys who are here until 2014 or so - Wells & Lind.

Next best? Marcum going 6 no-hit innings before running into trouble in the 7th (92 pitches total).

In the 'sadly no shock' column are Snider A) hitting 9th and B) striking out 3 of 4 PA's. Also Encarnacion's error.

In the 'the more things change the more they stay the same' category: the Jays losing despite having 2 more hits and one more HR than Texas.
Thomas - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#213126) #
I didn't realize this until today, but Roy Halladay finished his Blue Jays career (for now) with a 24-inning scoreless streak. How fitting.
martinthegreat - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#213128) #

I don't think you can blame Gaston for not taking out Marcum before the HR. That's just nitpicking on your part. If he had thrown 100 pitches maybe, but at that point I think he was only in the mid 80s, and had been very strong other than that one hit.

You could blame him for not pinch hitting Ruiz for Overbay vs a LHP with the bases loaded, a combination everyone knows doesn't work.

Also, is Snider batting 9th actually a problem with people? If so... why?? You should be happy he's starting at all really, he had an unimpressive spring, and a pretty unimpressive start.

John Northey - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#213129) #
The Marcum pull/lack of was more a joke as I know there are people going 'why did Cito pull him' after the HR was hit.

Play of the day - has to be this - ball off the ankle goes foul but the pitcher gets to it and tosses it between the legs for an out. Wow.
ZekeBella - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#213130) #

So the word is that the Jays have 3 closers?   NEXT!!   Seriously, the proper statement is that the Jays have 3 pitchers competing for the closer role. Frasor gets the first chance because he had a career year numbers-wise last year but  does anyone think that any of the 3 (Frasor, Gregg or Downs) is closer material on a contending team? The good news i guess is that they aren't on a contending team!

 I had a bad feeling about Cruz when he came up but once he hit the ball I felt relieved and then watched in amazement when it somehow reached the seats. Does Texas have one of those wind tunnel doors they can open like they had at the Big O?  If they don't we need to test the man for 'roids!

dan gordon - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#213131) #

That's quite a play by Buehrle.

I don't have a problem with Gaston not taking Marcum out.  I wasn't even thinking about that when I was watching - Marcum was looking dominant.  Cruz hit a pretty good pitch.  I do have a problem with Gaston's continued reluctance to use pinch hitters when a key situation arises.  I know he doesn't like to pinch hit for veterans, and he thinks you get better performance over the course of a season from players who aren't worried about being pinch hit for, but as indicated earlier, you've got a 1-run game, bases loaded, 8th inning, opposing team brings in a lefty to face Overbay and you've got Ruiz on the bench.  it just seems so wrong to not make that switch.  I know Overbay is a better defensive 1st baseman than Ruiz, but with the heart of the Ranger order due up one more time, and without a dominant shutdown closer, I want to do what I can to try to score in that situation.  Oh well, only one more season of that stuff to live through.

martinthegreat - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#213132) #
Personally I'd prefer Downs as the closer, since he's been pretty good the last few years. On the other hand, I like the "relief ace" idea more, with the bet reliever pitching at the most important times, and not necessarily the 9th inning. Realistically, before last year, Frasor wasn't particularly good or bad, so I feel he needs more time to prove last year was more his norm than the years before that. He shouldn't be seen as closer or relief ace. Gregg to me is right out, he's not that great.
Mylegacy - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#213133) #
Encarnacion - the guy turned 27 in January. Should be in his prime for the next 3 to 5 years. Hurt his wrist/hand and missed most of the Spring. Has been - at times - a reasonably highly rated prospect. Should we give up on him? I say - all other things being equal - not until the All-Star break at the earliest.

BUT - are all other things equal? That is the question.

Bautista is 29 and showed last year and in the spring he can play third.  Ruiz is 32 and while the bat may be an improvement - clearly Randy is NOT part of us going forward - even for 3 or 5 years. However is Lind COULD play LF - even just a bit better than poorly - then... Bautista could be at 3rd, Snider in RF and Dandy Randy at DH.

The real dilemma is Lind - the guy is 27 - 28 on July 17th - he's a SIGNIFICANT part of the New Jays going forward. He's clearly seen by the Jays as not only being a weak outfielder - but as being an inadequate outfielder... clearly he's not going to be picking up any speed soon. If I was the Jays I just might consider trying to have Wallace make it or break it at third, Lind could be long term at 1st, Bautista at 3rd (until Pierre I suspect takes that position), Hech at SS (long term view), Hill at 2nd, Wells and or Snider in LF the other as DH, and two of Thames, Marisnick, Sierra, and who knows, fighting for two spots in the outfield.

Lots of possibilities, lots of interesting baseball to watch. Oh joy!

TamRa - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#213134) #
a few things...

*If Ryan Franklin can close for the Cardinals last year and they won 90+ games, I'm not worried about Frasor being able to close (there are other examples of "non-classic" closers)

*I'm one of those who thinks it's nuts for Snider to be hitting ninth. Simple equation: if the tying run is on base in the bottom of the ninth and I can ask either Snider or Gonzo to go out there and drive him in - I'll take Snider. If it's August and Gonzo is in the midst of one of those occasional good offensive years then ok, fine. but his normal typical production? I'll take Travis, even at 22.

*sucks to lose today but I'm impressed with Marcum, Lind, and Wells and not worried about Frasor.

*I can see people worrying about EE's defense, but i continue to be mysitifed that people think we should be better offensively with Bautista out there every day instead of Encarnacion - that makes zero sense to me.


ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#213135) #
I know he doesn't like to pinch hit for veterans, and he thinks you get better performance over the course of a season from players who aren't worried about being pinch hit for, but as indicated earlier, you've got a 1-run game, bases loaded, 8th inning, opposing team brings in a lefty to face Overbay and you've got Ruiz on the bench

I don't think there's a manager in baseball who takes Overbay out in that situation. Toronto had the lead, they were up by a run, not down. Overbay's value is supposed to be disproportionately defensive for a first baseman. Ruiz is a poor defensive first baseman. If Overbay hit a flyball, if Frasor held the lead, if Texas only scored once in the ninth none of this would be coming up. I'm not saying Overbay is a great player, I don't think he is at all, but I don't think anyone pinch hits for their starting first baseman when they're up in that situation.

Frasor's far from a lights out closer. Not much you can do about it as the options aren't really there. I can just imagine if Ruiz had struck out and booted a play or two in the field.
martinthegreat - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#213136) #

Regarding Gonzales v Snider for number 9, it's a wash at best. It could go either way to the point where debating whether Snider should be 8th or 9th is pointless. Snider hasn't really shown that much at the major league level.

I disagree re: Overbay. I'm sure some managers, maybe Manny Acta of the Indians (who likes sabremetrics) would have taken him out. Anyone who 1. likes sabremetrics or 2. recognizes that Overbay is a platoon bat at this point, which isn't hard (even Cito didn't start him vs LHP that often last year) would recognize that the Jays had much better options than they allowed themselves.

Mike Green - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#213138) #
I don't know that sabermetric analysis would necessarily give one a good answer to the Ruiz for Overbay issue.  Overbay has hit .232/.289/.330 over the last 3 years against lefties (367 PAs).  That is a greater than typical platoon split, so you probably would regress it some.  What Ruiz is likely to do against all types of pitching is a big question mark.  CHONE has him at .255/.310/.450.  Over his short major league career, he has a reverse platoon split.  Given the small sample, you'd probably end up with a very small platoon advantage for him.  Balanced against that is the significant pinch-hitter demerit.  All in all, it looks to me as though Ruiz would be only marginally more likely to reach base (if at all), but would be much more likely to go long.  With a 4-3 lead in the eighth, that would not be the thing you would be most concerned with.  On the other hand, there is obviously a big defensive gap between Overbay and Ruiz. 

Personally, I think that Cito made the right move although it didn't work out.

Gerry - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#213139) #
If you pitch hit for Overbey who goes to handle firstbase?  McCoy or Ruiz?  I know Ruiz played a little there in the spring but I don't think he is considered a "real" first baseman.  Has McCoy played first?
Dave Till - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#213141) #
My $.02:

- What a good thing it is to see Marcum back in form. I was actually grateful that the Rangers busted up his no-hitter - no need to run up pitch counts this early. I was not so grateful for that game-tying home run, naturally, but this is SOP for Marcum: he makes his living by outguessing his opponents.  Because Marcum is not overpowering, if the hitter guesses right, he will make good contact.

- I was actually more pleased to see Wells single to put the team up 4-3 than I was to see the home run. Last year, there must have been 68 games in which opponents pitched around Lind, and Vernon hit a popup in about 67 of them. Perhaps all he needed was to be fully healthy. We'll find out, I guess.

- It is so wonderful to watch Lind hit. First, he got on top of a high fastball and muscled it for a single; 99 out of 100 hitters would not have been able to catch up to that pitch. Then, he took a low inside breaking pitch that hung a bit too much and tomahawked it into the right field stands. It's like he's a cricket player or something - he seems to have a collection of swings. And we're going to get to watch this for the next four years. Yowza!

- Frasor's pitch to Young in the ninth was just awful - a fastball up - but after that, he was a bit unlucky. I wouldn't write him off just yet: a 1-run lead facing Young, Hamilton, Guerrero and Cruz is pretty much the working definition of "tough save". Though, somewhere, quietly, in the secret place in his heart where no one can see, Kevin Gregg is smiling.

martinthegreat - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#213142) #

Let's see:

Overbay: 619 OPS vs LHP (or, god awful)

Ruiz: 770 OPS vs LHP in small sample (or, passable)

So we have a good fielding first baseman who has proven his ineptitude against LHP to the point where his statistics look like John McDonalds, or a mediocre fielding first baseman who hasn't proven much other than that he hits LHP at least passably, and has put together a strong September and a good spring training, as well as an impressive minor league career.

Lets say that this OPS comparison above, though there is a small sample size with Ruiz, is about right. There is a 151 difference in OPS for that one at bat. This at bat, with 1 out and the bases loaded, late in the game, is quite important, given that a 2-3-4 run lead is way better than a 1 run lead, as shown in the 9th inning today. Both are slow runners and double play candidates, though Overbay is much more likely due to generally making more outs.

On the other hand you have improved fielding. For one inning. With a chance that the first base position may not even be particularly important in terms of range and so on, in that there could be 3 fly balls, or even a ground out to second, which isn't a particularly hard play for even a mediocre first baseman to make.

So, I dunno. I don't see how this is even close in terms of decisions. Ruiz would give a much better chance at putting the game out of reach, and his mediocre fielding would not have been too likely to have an effect over only one inning.

92-93 - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#213143) #
Can somebody please explain to me why Cito bothers carrying 4 bench players? Mike McCoy is more than enough in case of emergencies, and you can just call up somebody else in case of an actual injury. There's zero reason to carry Ruiz and McDonald instead of 2 RP if he refuses to PH for Overbay in that spot.

Marcum collapsing in the 7th is nothing new to Jays fans, it seemed like in 2008 he took a shutout into the 6th/7th every other game. I'd like to think that the majority of managers would pull the guy with Marcum's history already over 80 pitches fresh off TJ in his first start of the season, ESPECIALLY on opening day with an off day tomorrow.
92-93 - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#213144) #
Also, whoever decided that Jason Frasor should throw an 0-2 fastball to Vladimir Guerrero really needs to go over those scouting reports. Awful pitch selection.
Dave Till - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#213145) #
For what it's worth, I have no trouble with the decision to leave Overbay in. He's a better defender, and the Jays had the lead at the time. What if Cito had pinch-hit for him, and the Rangers had gotten the tying run because Ruiz misplayed a ball that Overbay could have fielded?

dan gordon - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#213146) #

I don't think there's a manager in baseball who takes Overbay out in that situation

Oh please, don't try to speak for all major league mangers.  This kind of comment has no value.  I could just as easily say the opposite.  If you have a valid point to make, like Mike Green did, fine.  Not that I agree with his point, but he at least makes a valid argument.

Ryan Day - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#213147) #
Why do people attack Cito for putting Snider at the 9th slot in the lineup?  Snider is by far the youngest and most inexperienced hitter on the team.  It's not even totally clear that he deserves to be in the majors full-time.

If Cito was rewarding performance, I could understand that. But Vernon Wells was awful last year, and he's back to hitting cleanup. Jose Bautista's got a career .316 OBP vs. RHP, and he's hitting leadoff every day. Buck and Gonzalez might have adequate bats for their position, but both have a career-best OPS+ of around 100.

Snider, despite his obvious struggles, still had about an average bat last year, which is more than can be said for a bunch of the guys hitting ahead of him.
katman - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#213148) #
Mark Buehrle. Oh. My. God. don't know if that's the best play I've ever seen - but at the very least, it makes the top 3.

Tough way to start, but Marcum looked great and that's a big plus. We're going to lose a lot this year. As long as the right people look good while we're doing it. I'll be chillin'.
scottt - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#213149) #
Trading Hill makes zero sense to me. There's a pile of draft picks to be cashed this year and there's already a number of players that won't be returning next year. Trading Hill to lose more games and draft near the top? Matts Sundin? What?

I don't pull Marcum, here. He is the ace.

If I'm playing to win, I go with Randy there. If not, this is a good chance for Overbay to increase his trade value.

Apparently, the plan with Ruiz is to play him as  little as possible, so expect to see Overbay starting against lefties.


ayjackson - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#213150) #

I'm a wee bit concerned that Marcum's velocity is down 2-3 mph on the fastball.  A little reminiscent of BJ.  Fortunately, Marcum is a spring chicken in comparison.

I'm not going to make any rash judgements on EE just yet.

Ron - Monday, April 05 2010 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#213151) #
If I was the manager, I would have pulled Buck in the 8th when the bases were loaded and put in Ruiz. John Buck being a starting catcher just shows you how bad the depth is around baseball for the position.

Despite the loss, it was a entertaining game to watch.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#213153) #

Lets be honest, the jays are not going to make the playoffs.  We have to look for positives (and negatives)

1. Marcum and Lind looked very good

2. Wells might come back to do something this year

3. Overbay looked horrible today.  The jays have to stick with him to see if they can trade him for something...  Just something...

4. Encarcion is not going to be our future 3rd baseman.  But his bat was looking alright.

5. Frasor... What are the twins offering for him?  :)  Bummer..

6. I thought Buck called a good game.

It is great to have baseball again. 

Glevin - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 04:06 AM EDT (#213154) #
If I were Cito I would have pinch hit Overbay with Pujols or maybe Arod. Come on people, there will be plenty of very questionable moves during the year, but this was not one of them.

Also, what's with the insane rush to write EE off completely. No, he's not George Brett, but he has power and might be a very passable 3Bman for a few years while the Jays rebuild. Let the guy return from his injury and see what he can do. It's not like Bautista or Ruiz are long-term answers or anything. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#213158) #
The whole Ruiz for Overbay situation doesn't seem obvious to me, one way or the other.  I would feel quite sure about leaving Overbay in, had the situation been runners on second and third and one out, or bases loaded nobody out.  Overbay is particularly vulnerable to the DP because he is so slow, and I do think that the risk of either a DP or a K would be noticeably higher with Overbay than Ruiz in the actual game situation. 

At a different stage in the competitive cycle, this situation would raise a roster construction issue. 

Cynicalguy - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#213160) #
It's funny hearing all the conclusions based on ONE GAME...such as Frasor is not fit to be a closer, Wells is back, Snider needs to stay at no.9, etc.
China fan - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#213162) #

Read the thread a little more closely, Cynicalguy, because you've obviously misread it and you're completely distorting what people said.  Nobody said "Wells is back" based on one game.  My own comments about Frasor and Snider were certainly not based on one game -- they were based on an overall assessment of what I've seen from these guys for years, as I made very clear in my comments.  If you want to make your own points, feel free to do so, but don't misquote people.

As for Glevin's comment:  there is no "insane rush" to write off EE.  But I don't see any grounds for insane optimism either.  He's supposed to be recovered from his injury, so we can't use the injury as an excuse.  The guy is 27 years old -- he's not in the "prospect" category any more -- and he has a career OPS of .788, with steady declines since 2008.  He hasn't impressed, either defensively or offensively, and it's clear that the Reds were keen to dump him on the Jays to offload his salary.  My reading of the Rolen trade is that the Jays accepted EE's salary as one of the concessions in the deal, because the Jays wanted to get rid of Rolen's salary and to acquire a couple of prospects in return (Stewart and Roenicke, not EE).  The Jays are giving EE a huge amount of playing time because they don't have anyone else in the system at 3B (except in the lower minors).  I'm not writing him off -- I'd love it if he could turn it around and start mashing the ball as he did in 2006 -- but his peak was four years ago and he's showing little sign of turning it around for any consistent period of time in the last couple years.  I'm just arguing that Ruiz is a better hitter than EE and has a natural slot in the lineup (DH) since Bautista can play an adequate 3B. 

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#213163) #
[EE] is 27 years old -- he's not in the "prospect" category any more -- and he has a career OPS of .788, with steady declines since 2008.

I'm not sure what that means: there's been one season since 2008 - 2009 - and that was the one in which he was injured. He'd been an above-average hitter for three years before that. If he's healthy, he's probably good for a 280/350/450 season, and he's in the age range where players have career years.

That said, his wrist was still bothering him in spring training, which doesn't seem a good sign for the year. And his defence is pretty lousy. But on the whole, I don't think he's a problem.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#213165) #
That's optimistic, Ryan.  Even if you throw out 2009 and use the 2007-08 numbers and adjust them from the NL Central to the AL East, you get something like CHONE's .255/.335/.428 for EE.  ZiPS has him at .233/.317/.397 which is probably the pessimist's view and treats the 2009 numbers as quite important. 
jmoney - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#213166) #
I won't say Wells is back but I will give him credit for the homerun. Last year he popped that pitch up a mile high in the infield.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#213168) #
It is April - time to feel that Marcum is a Cy Young contender, Wells and Lind are going to fight for the MVP, Encarnacion will make 162 errors, etc, etc, etc.

In truth the numbers at this stage mean little. Wait a month before deciding anything, and even then only if you get an extreme result (ERA under 1, OPS of 1.250+, or ERA over 7/OPS under 500).

It is fun though to see leaderboards and box scores and have baseball on every night.

FYI: Lind leads the majors with a 1.000 batting average and OBP (only guy there who qualifies), one of 6 guys with a 2.000 Slg%, net 3.000 OPS (718 OPS+). Marcum leads the AL in innings pitched (7) and strikeouts (6).

Ah, the fun of silly stats.
TamRa - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#213169) #
I'm just arguing that Ruiz is a better hitter than EE and has a natural slot in the lineup (DH) since Bautista can play an adequate 3B.

My counter argument there is this:

If we are speaking only of hitting, the contest is not between EE and Ruiz, it's between Bautista and EE - and EE wins that one, IMO.

Laying aside the need for and lack of a lead-off hitter, both Ruiz and EE are noticeably better hitters as full time players than Bautista is.

So referencing Bautista's ability to play 3B is irrelevant (from an offensive view)

Ruiz does need to play, but EE doesn't have to sit for that to happen.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#213170) #
Okay, it's probably a bit optimistic. But league switches, injury recovery, and aging are a weird combination. Though I do have a feeling that Encarnacion is the sort of hitter who might respond well to Cito.

(On the other hand, he might be the sort of hitter Cito likes and plays regardless of how bad he hits.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#213177) #
No, he's not George Brett, but he has power and might be a very passable 3Bman for a few years while the Jays rebuild.

I'll never understand the assumption that players can change because they are joining your team. Edwin Encarnacion is a horrendous defender, probably the worst defensive 3B in the game since he broke into the league. The idea that Brian Butterfield can sprinkle some magic pixie dust on him and turn him into a "passable" 3B is as likely as Randy Ruiz stealing 20 bases. The team's FA additions this offseason had a defensive slant to them, as does starting Jose Bautista as your every day RF - to pair those moves with E5 as your everyday 3B astounds me. He doesn't need to be run out there constantly just because the Reds forced the Jays to swallow some salary in the Rolen trade.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#213181) #
According to UZR, Bautista was a poorer defensive third basemen than Encarnacion prior to his arrival in Toronto.  I don't know if Encarnacion will benefit from the change of scenery as much as Bautista appears to have done.  Butterfield has done a fabulous job, but he wasn't able to help Russ Adams with his defensive issues. 
Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#213182) #
Hmm. Bautista's an interesting comparison to Encarnacion, for a variety of reasons. While you might think a player going from the NL Central to the AL East would lose some numbers, Bautista didn't - his 2009 in Toronto is right in line (a little better, even) with his 3 years in Pittsburgh.

And as Mike says, Bautista was no great shakes at third prior to meeting Mr. Butterfield. Heck, he may not be so great now - his sample size for 2009 is pretty small.

I don't think Encarnacion is anyone's ideal third baseman, but there aren't any other options in the organization. (aside from Bautista, who might field a little better and hit a little worse) He's under contract this year for $4.75 million - if he can't hit or field, you can dump him, and start fresh with someone in 2011.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#213183) #
If Cito was rewarding performance, I could understand that. But Vernon Wells was awful last year, and he's back to hitting cleanup. Jose Bautista's got a career .316 OBP vs. RHP, and he's hitting leadoff every day. Buck and Gonzalez might have adequate bats for their position, but both have a career-best OPS+ of around 100. Snider, despite his obvious struggles, still had about an average bat last year, which is more than can be said for a bunch of the guys hitting ahead of him.

I haven't seen anything beyond your post that claims that Wells is hitting cleanup as a reward to last years performance.

The simple truth is that this is a lineup without a lot of offensive weapons. I agree with giving Lind and Hill the 3/2 holes. Lind is also the only lefthanded power bat right now. Unless you want to invite lefthanded pitchers in to eat up Overbay and Snider, and likely reduce LInd's effectiveness, you're going to separate them with a righty, and Wells is better as a righthanded hitter than the options.

Put me in the group that's curious about the obsessing over where Snider hits in the batting order. I think the organization is handling him perfectly. What you say about his stats from last year, misses the rest of the truth, i.e. that he had the typical 'rookie has hot start when offered steady fastballs - league adjusts and he doesn't' year. His OPS after two weeks was 1.028. Then the breaking pitches came, the fastball placement came, and his OPS for the rest of the year was .702.

The best place he can be is somewhere which allows him to learn to adjust, and to focus on that and nothing more. There's no organization 'plot' at work to reward or punish him. There's a reason major league pitchers are in the majors and minor league pitchers aren't and much of it has to do with making adjustment. He's not faced that before, at least to this extent, and he's struggling. The organization is right to have him focussing on that as much as possible and game situations as little as possible. The nine hole is the best place I know of to do that in the majors, the next alternative if he doesn't is Las Vegas.

Obviously if he makes the adjustments he needs to make and improves at the plate, he's going to be moved up in the order. It strikes me as odd that some are unprepared to let that work out. Is it because there's a fear he won't improve?

I'm unaware of a single mlb fanbase that's as obsessed with where a batter is hitting in the order as some in Toronto's are about where Snider hits. Even in Boston, where there's some disagreement about whether Drew should be up a spot or not (Francona's separating the lefties), there is not this level of antagonism or anguish about what to me is as close to a non-issue as you can get.

Finally, many years ago I saw Tim Robbin's film Bob Roberts. A friend pointed out that parodies of the American right don't work because the right is beyond parody. The comment in the lead post about taking Marcum out after allowing his first hit when he hadn't gone 7 (a great strategy to blow out the bullpen by May, let alone building his pitch count from st) reminded me of that. Tongue-in-cheek doesn't work sometimes. While Gaston isn't a particularly good in-game strategist (at least in the regular season, there are Braves' fans who would have switched Cox after the '92 series), at a certain point the criticism becomes beyond the pale. I think what Toronto needs least this year is an in-game strategist and needs most is someone who will help people do what they need to do. For many of the players that's really not much as they won't be here in 1-3 years.

Nor am I aware of a fanbase that extolls a career minor leaguer to the extent that some in Toronto do Randy Ruiz.
Parker - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#213184) #

I think everyone is starting with the hypoethesis that Gaston is a terrible strategist and then looking for examples of it.  He is, and there are plenty.  It's no secret that he'll trot out "established veterans" over the kids, regardless of whether the veterans are any good.  Last year the complaint wasn't that Overbay was allowed to hit against lefties, but that he was replaced by Millar against lefties.  This year, there's no Millar or any other established veteran right-handed bat who can play 1st base, so Overbay won't be platooned.

Gaston won't play Ruiz because he's not an established veteran.  The Ruiz obsession isn't because everyone thinks he's a .900 OPS hitter, it's because the alternative to starting him is a .710 OPS from Overbay against lefties.  We don't think Ruiz is great, we just think he's better than the alternative.  ComebyDeanChance, you said yourself that this is a lineup without many offensive weapons.  Ruiz might be a weapon, or he might not.  We already know that Overbay sucks against LHP.  We don't yet know that Ruiz does.

Parker - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#213185) #
Hypothesis.  I wish there was an edit post option for those of us who can't effectively proof our own writing.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#213186) #
Parker, you may be right that the reason Ruiz isn't being platooned is only that he's not a veteran. and if that's so, then I'd agree it's a poor reason. It may also be that Ruiz can't catch a cold, and the organization wants to provide at least as good as possible a defence for young pitchers. I don't know their motives, nor do I speculate on them as easily as some.

Personally, as far as the year at first base is concerned, and leaving aside for the moment the issue of a presentable defence (which I put aside less easily than others), I'd rather have Overbay sit. He's gone in 7 months, we're well aware of what he can and can't do etc.

But unlike others (Wilner is probably the best example) I'm not so desperate to get Ruiz' bat into the lineup that I'm be willing to play the 'clown show outfield' with Snider in right and LInd in left to magnify the number of hits that young starters allow, or throws to nowhere, or have an Encarnacion to Ruiz hot corner which will also not inspire pitcher confidence.

But overall, I don't have an issue with playing Ruiz over Overbay, especially vs. lefties, provided the guy has a better-than-dh glove. Even though he's a career minor leaguer, there's a better chance he'll be here next year than Overbay.

To some extent I think you're right about why the desperate by some search for things to criticize. As Glevin put it, we'll have enough bona fide in-game decisions to question to not need to invent some.
ayjackson - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#213187) #

He's gone in 7 months, we're well aware of what he can and can't do etc.

Are we?  I'm not sold that he can't hit lefties.  He's done it on multiple occasions in the past.  He's been injured and platooned the last few years, but if I'm AA, I'd like to turn him into an asset going forward.  He won't return much and perhaps can't be offered arb as a platoon player.  But if you give him two months to prove to the league that he's an everyday first baseman, what's the harm?  If he can't show it in two months, you platoon him with a capable right handed bat.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#213189) #
Given it has been just one game I'd not pass judgement on anything yet.

If Overbay plays vs all left handed starting pitchers all season regardless of how he hits them, then I'd worry a bit. I suspect though that, at first, he will. Why? Because Snider has yet to prove anything at the majors beyond being able to strike out a lot and hit decently for a middle infielder/CF but plays RF/LF. Platooning him to start the season probably makes sense and I bet we'll see Ruiz vs LH starting pitchers, Lind in LF, and Snider on the bench to start.

IF Snider hits well, IF Overbay doesn't, IF Ruiz does then we'll see it shift to Overbay/Ruiz platoon with Lind at 1B and Snider staying in LF.

IF Ruiz doesn't hit then the Las Vegas shuffle begins, as it also would if Snider keeps striking out 3 times a game (unlikely).
#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#213190) #

I know he doesn't like to pinch hit for veterans, and he thinks you get better performance over the course of a season from players who aren't worried about being pinch hit for

Look, they lose a game now so they can go win 2 or 3 or 20 more games down the line.    Wasn't that Cito's reasoning last year for leaving veterans in? :D

I can see both sides of the argument regarding Overbay/Ruiz.  Still, why play Ruiz at first base in the spring if you're not going to use him for an inning or two late?  Maybe Cito misses Kevin Millar.

Frasor was really frustrating yesterday.  Hill's great play up the middle to save a run only delayed the inevitable, unfortunately.  I keep telling myself it's a rebuilding year but I was some kind of pissed off yesterday.

How about that play by Mark Buehrle yesterday?  The between the legs flip after a liner off the leg and Konerko barehands it!  I think my first reaction was "As bleeping if!" or "Bleep off!".  Unbelievable!

As for former Jays, Brandon League got the "W" for Seattle in the M's win over Oakland and Scott Rolen had one and almost two bombs for the Reds yesterday.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#213192) #
In the spirit of Brumsfield's post...

I'd like to think that the majority of managers would pull the guy with Marcum's history already over 80 pitches fresh off TJ in his first start of the season, ESPECIALLY on opening day with an off day tomorrow.

Certainly the majority of smart managers would, at least those who having seen him move up to 90 pitches in spring training could see regressing him to 75 pitches his first start with a no-hitter going. Hopefully they'd have him down to 35 or so by the end of the month. Appears obvious to any serious student of the game.

Also, whoever decided that Jason Frasor should throw an 0-2 fastball to Vladimir Guerrero really needs to go over those scouting reports. Awful pitch selection.

Apparently there's a report on www.morecleverthanthou.com that what happened was this. With the 0-2 pitch coming, the normal course of the pitcher selecting the pitch was interrupted. Cito jumped in (with help from Bruce Walton, who nobody outside the organization regards as a proper pitching coach) and interfered. He first checked in with Anthopolous, who went upstairs to Tony Viner. Viner apparently said "We're trying to appeal to casual fans of the game and want to ignore statistical realities - throw a fastball." Tangotiger apparently started yelling over the headset "No, don't throw Vladdy a fastball in this situation, stats say to work him with a slider outside" but Cito drowned him out, yelling "We only care about counting stats and suppressing Travis Snider's numbers by hitting him ninth - throw him the fastball so we lose."

So Jason threw him the fastball and the rest's history, except it wouldn't be if Gaston had done the obvious and taken out Overbay with the lead to put in Randy Ruiz in the infield.
ayjackson - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#213193) #
Clearly if Handsome Tony Viner had been involved in the pitch selection, it wouldn't have been a fastball down broadway.  I have a feeling that it was Phil Lind who okay'd the fastball - but he was busy redrafting his daughter's pre-nup and not really paying attention to the at bat.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 06 2010 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#213194) #
Last season a Baseball Prospectus writer (I think) described Cito's managing style as "tactically inert." Which, to me, pretty much says it all.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#213196) #
Agreed greenfrog. Maybe if you never make a decision, you can't be criticized for it?

It was easy to forget this about him when he was gone for 10 years, but that's been his M.O. his whole career.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#213197) #
"darned if you, darned if you don't"

JN, I always thought that da Box was PG rather than G.  Not that I care, unless Selig introduces a Heidi rule for World Series games that carry on too long. 

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#213198) #
Local North Texas radio sportsguyz aare worried ... this morning's meme: "Rich Harden has never beaten the Blue Jays." Over and over and over. So, really, why play the game?
John Northey - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#213199) #
Heh. Price of having 3 daughters - they pick up on everything and the number of 'bad words' is a bit crazy at times. Even "crap" is a bad word to them. Since adopting them I've been adjusting my vocabulary a lot.
rtcaino - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#213202) #
Ken Rosenthal says that rival agents are not happy with the Lind deal, because of the three option years. That is certainly an indication that they Jays did pretty well with the contract.

Giving credit where credit it due, I came across this on MLBTR.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#213204) #
"Certainly the majority of smart managers would, at least those who having seen him move up to 90 pitches in spring training could see regressing him to 75 pitches his first start with a no-hitter going. Hopefully they'd have him down to 35 or so by the end of the month. Appears obvious to any serious student of the game"

Right, because spring training pitches vs. a AAA lineup are comparable to 82 opening day pitches. And let's throw out the fact that he was probably 30 minutes deeper into his throwing session than any time he threw over the spring (that one is for Magpie). Also, to the 3 ignoramuses in my Opening Day viewing part, he looked gassed - each one of us said that BEFORE he gave up the hit, and then pined for the pull after. The idea that by going to your bullpen on the first day with an off day tomorrow you will tire out your pen is downright laughable - the only depth this organization has is its relief core. Since many of you respect the opinions of Law & Wilner, let's go there -

Law - "Great start by Marcum. Now go to the bullpen." (tweeted immediately after the Vlad hit)

Wilner - "I’m not saying that Marcum should have been lifted after six with the no-no intact, nor am I saying that he should have been yanked in the 7th once Vladdy Guerrero broke it up with a hard line single to right. But I am saying that the option should have been there.

There wasn’t a reliever ready in the bullpen when Marcum finally did give up that hit, with his pitch count over 80 in his first start in a year and a half, with a 3-0 lead and eight outs to go. Heck, I’m not even sure that there was even a pitcher warming up in the bullpen - and that’s what I have the issue with.

I’ll admit, I wasn’t thinking “get him out of there” once Marcum gave up the hit, but after talking to Jeff Blair both before and during Prime Time Sports, I’ve moved over to his way of thinking. Marcum had done a great job, the Jays have a stacked bullpen and, with a day off tomorrow, nothing back for which to hold anyone."

Cito didn't even have a reliever GETTING LOOSE in the 7th inning when his starter was approaching 90 pitches in his first start. The lengths some of you will go to defend him because he provided enjoyment 20 years ago is astounding.
ZekeBella - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#213209) #

the Jays have a stacked bullpen

Eichorn, Ward and Henke was a stacked bullpen.  Downs, Gregg and Frasor?  Not even close.  I believe a lot of people are going to have a different image of the bullpen before this year is over. This is not an excuse for the way that Cito has, and will no doubt continue to use his bullpen. Cito's strength would seem to be communicating off the field, not the way he runs the show on the field which has always been rather erratic. He seems to follow his own "book"  which is not necessarily a bad thing but certainly causes you to scratch your head at times, even when it works.

 

92-93 - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#213211) #
"Stacked" refers to quantity, not quality.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#213219) #
I was 'watching' online and didn't know Cito had yet to get anyone loose in the pen. That is a major mistake as a guy off Tommy John in his first ML start since should be expected to go no more than 6.

I also was thinking, going into the 6th, that he should be pulled as soon as a hit is given up. There is no reason, once that hit is given up, to keep him in there really. The Jays had a 3 run lead, as rested a pen as humanly possible, a day off coming up, and no hope of Marcum going 9 for the shutout (if it was felt he 'deserved' it).

Ah well, like I said, first day so lets not keep getting into knots over it.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 07 2010 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#213220) #
It's nothing new. Cito is very late reacting to his starters getting tired late in games, and always seems to be 2 batters too late. I believe it was Jeff Blair who pointed out on PrimeTime how it was inexcusable to not at least pause the game after the hit with a mound visit, even if you plan on leaving him in. It all crumbed way too quickly, and to not blame that at least partially on the manager is just being an apologist for everything the man does.
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