Sometimes it's easy to know - I was in the house last Friday, and I've never seen so many hardened and cynical professionals laughing at the efforts of the highly paid athletes on the field (along with the predictable grumbling that it's almost nine o'clock and we're only in the third inning...)
And sometimes we see things we never expected to see. John Buck hitting three home runs. Alex Gonzalez and Jose Bautista both on pace for 40 - that's right, 40 - homer seasons. It is extremely, extremely unlikely that they will maintain this, but that's where we are. Early days, of course.
Nobody knows anything. At the beginning of the season, you may recall, we did our best to anticipate what might transpire this season. Among the questions we all grappled with was this:
Will Cito do the right thing and NOT platoon (future superstar) Travis Snider?
It probably should be noted that Gaston had already said Snider would not be platooned, which was my own cop-out of a response. Anyway....
Obal said Snider would pulverize the league in April and render the whole question moot. That missed the mark by a fair bit - Snider had an awful April (11-71, .155) and I'm pretty sure that if anyone possessed that information they would have said without hesitation that the kid would either be benched or sent to AAA. Luckily, none of us were put to that particular test, although I was asking rather loudly just how long the team was supposed to put up with it. Until it stopped, as it turned out...
As for the rest of us...
Gerry said "No, he probably will platoon Snider..."
Braden said "Unfortunately I doubt it..."
#2JB said "Probably not."
WillRain said "No he won't"
Matthew said he wouldn't be surprised if Snider didn't play at all.
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Fred Lewis 13 22 3 9 4 0 0 13 4 1 8 1 2 .409 .435 .591 1.026
Travis Snider 11 20 4 7 3 0 0 10 1 2 7 0 1 .350 .409 .500 .909
John Buck 9 18 4 6 2 0 3 17 6 0 7 0 0 .333 .333 .944 1.278
Mike McCoy 8 12 4 3 1 0 0 4 0 3 2 2 1 .250 .400 .333 .733
Vernon Wells 19 32 1 7 1 0 1 11 3 6 4 0 0 .219 .342 .344 .686
Jose Bautista 13 27 2 5 2 0 0 7 2 3 7 0 0 .185 .258 .259 .517
Randy Ruiz 6 17 2 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 6 1 0 .176 .176 .235 .412
John McDonald 6 13 1 2 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 .154 .154 .308 .462
E. Encarnacion 4 7 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 .143 .333 .143 .476
Lyle Overbay 20 36 2 5 0 0 1 8 3 0 8 0 0 .139 .139 .222 .361
Adam Lind 22 39 1 5 1 0 0 6 3 3 16 0 0 .128 .190 .154 .344
Alex Gonzalez 15 35 0 4 3 0 0 7 2 0 14 0 0 .114 .114 .200 .314
Jose Molina 6 12 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 .083 .154 .083 .237
Aaron Hill 13 20 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 4 0 0 .050 .269 .050 .319
Jeremy Reed 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 1.000 .000 1.000
Totals 28 310 26 59 20 0 5 94 24 28 90 4 4 .190 .257 .303 .560
That's not a platoon - he was spotted in and out against LH while he was struggling early on. But so far, he and Lewis have been the only guys on the team who seem able to hit the sinister fellows. And John Buck, of course. And yes - as bad as Lyle Overbay has been against southpaws, Adam Lind has been worse.
Which brings me to the strange case of Jose Bautista. I seem to recall a pre-season consensus that Gaston's plan to have Bautsta lead off and play RF every day was - how shall I put this - the opposite of wise. Indeed, Gaston himself ended up moving Bautista lower in the order once Fred Lewis arrived, and in the absence of Encarnacion he's played much more often at third base than right field. But he has played every day, at any rate.
Now the issue with Bautista, as I recall, was that while he might make part of a useful platoon, he simply doesn't hit RHP well enough to play a corner outfield spot. And while it's still early days, here he is hitting .185 against LHP and .250 (with all 10 of his HRs) against RHP.
Early days, I realize, and we should pay much more attention to what the man has done over the course of his career rather than the last five weeks. I entirely agree. And these are the lines everyone has been looking at:
Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
vs RHP as RHB 523 1548 1337 306 70 5 42 171 13 7 163 338 .229 .320 .383 .703 512 41 21 15 12 4 9 .272 91
vs LHP as RHB 273 654 556 145 29 4 26 68 4 3 78 131 .261 .355 .468 .823 260 14 7 7 6 5 8 .294 122
But here's where it actually gets interesting. The next two lines give Bautista's career numbers in games started by LH (regardless of who came in to pitch later) and games started by RH (ditto.) Ponder this, me hearties...
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
vs LH Starter 207 192 816 692 94 156 37 4 23 75 6 3 90 178 .225 .320 .390 .710 270 18 11 13 10 2 5 .265 93
vs RH Starter 406 302 1386 1201 170 295 62 5 45 164 11 7 151 291 .246 .336 .418 .754 502 37 17 9 8 7 12 .286 104
That's right. Over the course of his career, Bautista has been a more productive hitter in games started by RHP - despite his platoon splits. Go figure...
Well, one explanation is that he would get the start against a LHP, and then be utterly overwhelmed by the RH relievers who would eventually arrive on the scene. Or he was being sent in to pinch-hit against the LH starter, and the opposing manager would simply go to the bullpen. Bautista's career numbers as a pinch hitter are pretty horrible (7-49). As I've been saying, pinch hitting for the most part is a dying strategy because it's the defensive manager now who has all the options (arms in the pen.)
Furthermore, Bautista is a career .191 hitter (80-411) after the eighth inning. That is when the relief aces, most of whom are right-handed, show up for duty. But perhaps he's able to cope with the regular RH pitchers who populate most starting rotations.
So far so good, anyway.
