In the two games since Monday's horrible performance, Overbay has 4 hits in 8 at-bats, with a homer and two doubles, leading the team.   He seemed REALLY upset after the Monday performance, and (unusually) refused to talk to reporters the next day.   My optimistic scenario is that Monday finally shook him out of his lethargy and his slump -- it fired him up, woke him up, and gave him a whole new level of motivation for the rest of the season.....

Or maybe he'll just fall back into another slump.  But I prefer to read this optimistically, because a hot-hitting Overbay could be crucial to the team's success this year.  Adam Lind has also shown signs of life in the past 6 games.  Now if we could just analyze Hill's slump....

Brett Cecil quoted after the game..."I'm sure it might freak batters out a little bit, seeing me go like this," Cecil said later, with an exaggerated squint.

Considering Gameday had him touching 96mph and sitting 93-95 in the early innings I dare say that freaking out would have been an appropriate response. Is it just me or does it seem that both Cecil and Romero added a little more velocity this season? Having two young lefty starting pitchers throwing in the low-mid nineties with good control is something that I could get used to.

My optimistic scenario is that Monday finally shook him out of his lethargy and his slump -- it fired him up, woke him up, and gave him a whole new level of motivation for the rest of the season.....

The problem with that theory is that he was 3/3 with two XBH in May 14. His stretch of successful work dates back arguably seven games.

In any case, I hope this streak of success lasts longer than the one he had about this time in April.

I think that trying to draw conclusions after 2 days, 5 days, a week is mostly a mug's game. Let's hope Overbay is turning a corner, but this could just as easily be random chance. I am reminded of when everyone was convinced that Alex Rios was the next Roberto Clemente after a two week hot stretch coinciding with Cito taking the reigns, and that one didn't turn out so well in the end...

Well John, it may not mean anything in the end given the relative crap shoot that is the MLB draft, but this season's starting quintet at least has a significantly better "pedigree" than the 2005 group. For what it is worth, here are the starting five young guns for each season and their respective overall draft positions:

2005: Halladay 17th, Bush 55th, Towers 441st, Lilly 688th, Chacin Undrafted

2010: Morrow 5th, Romero 6th, Cecil 38th, Marcum 80th,  Eveland 469th

2010/2011 (Waiting in the wings edition): Drabek 18th, Stewart 84, Marc Rzepczynski 175th

If I am searching for optimism in this edition of the starting five in comparison to previous incarnations, I supposed this is as good a place to start as any.

I'm not an expert by any means, but I can't see Overbay putting together any string of success with his swing.  He seems to uppercut the ball, so there is no margin for error.  If he's a fraction of a second early he tops the ball into the ground, if he's early he'll get under it and hit an lazy fly or popup.  It seemed like when he joined the Jays his swing was much flatter and he hit more line drives.

Even .200 hitters will have a couple good games here and there.

It really did seem like Romero, and Cecil the night before, were not getting the low strike. Considering this pretty much nullified both of their changeups, I too thought both did well to pitch the way they did given the circumstances.

Anyone else happen to notice that since the bullpen implosion that was the Tampa series, Frasor and Downs have been by far our best pitchers out of the pen?

Frasor: 9.1 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 8.68 K/9, 0.96 BB/9, 0.96 ERA, 11.89 P/IP

Downs: 12 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 9.00 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 16.25 P/IP

I wonder how long a leash Gregg gets, considering how quickly Frasor was yanked to begin the season? Gregg in the same time frame:

Gregg: 11.2 IP, 1.80 WHIP, 10.03 K/9, 6.17 BB/9, 4.63 ERA, 19.63 P/IP

I guess it is too much to expect Gaston to break from the rest of the lemmings and rotate the three of them through the high leverage situations without being a slave to convention. Although, as much as I didn't like Gaston's use of Frasor, Downs and Camp, at least he wasn't giving away two outs in the 3rd inning to score 1 run or asking for a 2 strike bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out in the 5th. Those decisions alone should have warranted another Mariner loss.......

Once Cito brought him into the game it was his game to lose.

I agree that the wise thing to do probably was to allow Camp to finish the game, but I'm not sure that most managers wouldn't have acted exactly as Cito did. While managers make day-to-day adjustments for position players concerning getaway days and the like, I haven't noticed it as frequently for pitchers. Managers seem to break from regular usage patterns after a reliever has thrown two days in a row or has thrown more innings than usual*, but pitching the afternoon after a night game doesn't usually scare managers off. Many relievers get saves on a Saturday after closing the game on the Friday, as well.

*Gerry's point about last night's game is worth considering, but I think that a) Two innings seems like more than one, regardless of the pitches, b) Two innings involves the added consideration of sitting on the bench while your team bats and c) I wouldn't be surprised if Cito or Walton asked Gregg about his availability for today, to which he naturally replied he'd be ready to pitch if necessary.

Now if we could just analyze Hill's slump....

For starters, his BABIP is .169, which according to BBRef is worst among qualifiers in the Majors.

For starters, his BABIP is .169, which according to BBRef is worst among qualifiers in the Majors.

Though not out of line with his horrific line drive rate.

Once Cito brought him into the game it was his game to lose.

You cannot state this as fact without at least attempting to quantify the reasoning. Teams win and lose ballgames, not pitchers.

"Once Cito brought him into the game it was his game to lose."

You cannot state this as fact without at least attempting to quantify the reasoning. Teams win and lose ballgames, not pitchers.

This seems like a pretty accurate depiction of The Modern Manager's usage of The Closer. There are always exceptions, sure (especially as the closer gets more fungible), but once they've decided he's "The Man", a manager will almost always let him go until the game's over (extra innings notwithstanding). Personally, I'm going to stick with this conventional wisdom in absence of a way to mine the info out of Baseball Reference. SvOpps 9th or later where the closer gets removed with the lead vs all save opps? Heh, Manliness Ratio?

Since this is serving as the TDIB thread...

The Jays have now outhomered their opponents 66-32 (and 6 of those 32 were yielded by Tallet, in his 17 innings).

This may be difficult to sustain (he says, recognizing the magnitude of the understatement he has just uttered). If and when the wheels start falling off, this differential will be the first casualty.

It's one thing to promote a hitting philosophy of "hit the ball hard and, if possible, out of the park" and a pitching philosophy of "keep the ball down and in the park". It's another, entirely, to execute such plans. They have done so, for now, but the next 3/4 of the season may tell another tale.

On another topic, V-dub's defence (per UZR/150) in CF this year is looking remarkably consistent with his defence in 2004-2007.  Is this an abberation or is the cliff dive for the season-and-a-half of 2008-09 an abberation?  How are we to rely on UZR/150 when they produce such staggeringly different results even over large sample sizes?  Defence does not "feel" like it should vary from year to year like batting statistics will.  Thoughts, Bauxites?

When Gregg was looking like a dominant closer earlier this year, I was thinking that it might have something to do with the AL not being familiar with him.  He has an odd delivery and I thought it might take a bit of time for hitters to catch up, word to get around regarding how he pitches, etc.  He certainly was pitching far better than his track record would suggest he was capable of doing, and it seemed unsustainable.  I suspect that the hitters have indeed caught up, and the Gregg we are going to see from now on is the pitcher he has been prior to this year.  In particular, the hitters don't seem to be swinging at his slider that he throws down (or outside) and out of the strike zone, and he is now getting behind in the count.  Previously, hitters were swinging at it and he was getting ahead consistently.

And while we're doing random spitballing here (with apologies to Jayson Stark, who does this better)...

How about those "whose got the worst contract" contracts? And yes, they are all still bad contracts, despite the 2010 performances.

Vernon Wells: 301/359/596 (11 HR, 32 RBI)
Alfonso Soriano: 323/386/615 (7 HR, 23 RBI)
Barry Zito: 54 IP, 2.15 ERA, 6-1 W-L

Not previously in the running for worst contract in baseball but now a new viable candidate:

Carlos Lee: 197/241/329 (5 HR, 16 RBI, statuesque defense, one imagines)

And which pitchers deserve a better fate? Remember when Marcum finally got a W, long after he deserved a few? How about the misery shared by:

Zach Greinke: 9 GS, 1-4,  60 IP, 2.72 ERA
Roy Oswalt: 9 GS, 2-6, 61 IP, 2.66 ERA

And how about the best player mainstream fans don't know?

Ubaldo Jimenez, 0.99 ERA, 8-1, 63 IP, 36 H, 1 HR

The humidor helps, sure, but c'mon. And what is Halladay thinking? Cliff Lee all over again, but even moreso? Halladay, incidentally, is on pace for way more complete games than he ever pulled off in the AL. Some might argue that the easier competition means lower pitch counts and thus longer outings. But the need to pinch-hit for pitchers late in games can throw a wrench into the idea of complete games.

Doc has a fair lead on U-nez in WAR for the season so far.  2.8 to 2.2.  RR Cool is at 2.0 after yesterday's effort.

we're doing random spitballing here

It's the Friday of a long weekend - time for a "shiny object" thread.

Doc has a fair lead on U-nez in WAR for the season so far.

Yes, but come Cy Young voting time, you have to ask yourself: WAR, what is it good for?

And how about the best player mainstream fans don't know?

Ubaldo Jimenez, 0.99 ERA, 8-1, 63 IP, 36 H, 1 HR

I take it you live in Canada Chuck, because it's impossible for a mainstream baseball fan in the US to not know who Ubaldo is; the media is obsessed with his gas and his ability to maintain it deep into games. Sigh, if only Rogers would stop these shenanigans and allow Canada the option of ESPN and the MLB Network.