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4 for 4, 87 hits and 63 runs.  That’s quite a show for our farm club.  Individual performances continue to impress.  Hechavarria, on a blistering 9 game hitting terror with AAA Las Vegas, went 2 for 5 with an RBI and now bats .513 with an OPS of 1.214.  Nicholas Baligod slugged a walk-off slam for Vancouver. And the pride of North York and St. Michaels Col. School his his second slam in as many nights for Lansing.



Las Vegas 7  Fresno 8

Despite a valiant effort in the bottom of the 9th by the 51s, starter Chad Gaudin (1-10) took the loss giving up 6 ER on 9 hits in 5.2 IP.  Reliever Mike MacDonald didn’t help his cause with a throwing error in the eighth.

In addition to Adeiny Hechavarria’s RBI, Darin Mastriani picked up 2 RBIs with ground outs in the 3rd and 9th innings.  David Cooper, Chris Woodward, Ricardo Nanita and Brian Jeroloman posted RBIs as well.  Woodward’s RBI came on a solo HR in the 7th inning.

New Hampshire 4  New Britain 5

A disastrous 6th inning in which New Britain put up four runs, finished the Fisher Cats, despite 9 hits and a decent start by Willie Callazo with 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R and 4 K’s.  Reliever Rey Gonzales (7-2) gave up 4 runs and three hits to suffer the loss.  Craig Stansbury had a throwing error, his 4th which cost a run in the 6th inning.

New Hampshire’s runs came on a single by Jonathan Diaz and a 2 run triple by Stansbury in the 2nd.  Mark Sobeolewski doubled in Yan Gomes who had reached on a force out in the 6th.  Moises Sierra had a good night for average, going 3 for 4.

Dunedin 8  Daytona 5

Harold Mozingo (2-0) took the win for Dunedin with 1.2 IP, 1H, BB, 2Ks and Matt Daly knotched his third save with 1.2 IP and 3 Ks.

Brad McElroy went 2 for 4 and batted in three with a single in the 4th, a ground out and a double in the 9th.  Brad Glenn and Brian Van Kirk also added an RBI each.  Ivan Contreas had a nice night going 3 for 4 and Ryan Goins went 2 for 5.

Lansing 9  Dayton 10

In one of Saturday’s three extra inning contests, the Luggies lost a tough one with Dayton putting up 3 unanswered runs, 2 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th.  Starter Marcus Walden had a decent run with 5.0 IP giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 4.  Brandan Berl (3-5) got the loss with 1.1 IP, giving up the winning run on 3 hits.

Marcus Knecht, soon to become North York’s best known 20 something, hit his second slam in as many nights, accounting for all of Lansing’s 4 runs in the 7th inning.  Lansing’s long ball didn’t stop there.  Marcus Brisker send a 3 run shot to the yard in the 4th and  Oliver Dominguez did a solo round trip in the 6th.  Eli Boike added an RBI single in the 3rd.

Vancouver 13  Everett 9

Another extra inning contest saw the good guys come out on top with a walk off in Vancouver.  Closer Phillip Brua (6-1) took the win with 2.1 IP.    A pair of errors marred the Canadians effort in the field one from Sean Opitz, his 13th, one from Alex Pepe on a pick off attempt, and a bad throw from Andrew Burns, his 6th.

The top three run producers for the Canadians put up 10 runs.  The walk off came when Nicholas Baligod slugged a slam in the bottom of the tenth.  Other round trippers included Kevin Patterson, his fourth, a two run shot in the 1st inning and a 2 run shot from Garret Maines, his fourth as well.  Jonathan Jones went 4 for 4 with a BB and hit in a pair and Maines added another RBI on a double.   Stephen McQuail went 3 for 4 with a 2B and scored a pair.

Bluefield 13  Pulaski 6

Bluefield  dominated with 15 total hits and a nice outing by starter and winner Mitchell Taylor (4-1) who went 5 IP with 4 runs on 6 hits and 4 Ks.  Relievers Andrew Sikula and Milciades Santana put in a couple of innings each and struck out 5 and 3 respectively.

RBIs in the Blue Jays effort came from Andy Fermin (4), Kevin Pillar (2) on a Triple, and Aaron Munoz who batted in a pair.  Pillar went 4 for 5 on the evening, Munoz went 2 for 4 as did Christopher Hawkins. Gustavo Pierre went 1 for 2 and Javan Williams put up a 1 for 2 as well.

GCL Blue Jays 5  GCL Yankees 4

Despite being out hit 10 to 5, the GCL Blue Jays, the GCL club sent no less than 6 pitchers to the mound and took a close one over the Yankees.  Starter and winning pitcher Griffin Murphy went 5.0IP 5 H 0 R and 4 Ks.  Alex Ramierez got the save in .2 IP in the 9th, stopping the Yankees scoring frenzy at 4, preserving the Blue Jays lead.

Yudelmus Hernandez and Nico Taylor batted in a pair each and each went long.  Eric Arce added a round tripper as well.

DSL Blue Jays 4  DSL Angels 5

In the longest contest of the day, the Angles outlasted the Blue Jays through 13 innings in a game that lasted 3 hours and 45 minutes.  7 Blue Jay hurlers got the call, but Gilberto Vielma (1-8) got the loss with 2.0 IP, 4 BB 4 R and 2 Ks.

Run producers included Franklin Moreno (3 for 4) who brought in 2 and Tonguar Perez and Gabriel Quintana who each brought in one.

 

Three Stars-

Third Star:           Brad McElroy                     2 for 4, 3RBIs

Second Star:       Nicholas Baligod             1 for 4, Walk Off Slam in the 10th

First Star:             Marcus Knecht                  1 for 5, Hit Second Slam in as Many Nights

No Pitching Duels Here: Farm Collects 87 Hits | 62 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#241708) #
Playoffs are looking good for our minor league teams. Too bad about Vancouver missing out on the 1st half playoff spot by that tie breaker.
uglyone - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#241709) #
Silver lining of a potential Lind injury here is that they may be forced to actually give Cooper an extended look, which he more than deserves.
ayjackson - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#241710) #
While Cooper deserves an extended look, with Bautista potentially being day to day, the Jays might opt for Loewen who can play RF as well as 1B.
sweat - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#241711) #
or call up Snider, and move Thames to DH, and EE to 1st.
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#241715) #
if they call up anyone but Snider my suspiscions would be raised WAY up.
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#241717) #
more promotion news:

billsportsnews From Dunedin: Told this morning that Syndergaard & Nicolino both headed to Lansing #bluejays





92-93 - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#241718) #
Snider hasn't done anything since his demotion to suggest he's ready to be called back up, if the intention was ever to "fix" him in AAA.
Magpie - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#241720) #
Cooper has certainly earned an opportunity, and I'm very curious to see what he'd do with it. While he may not have the "upside" of other prospects, I wonder if he might actually be someone who's actually more likely to reach what upside he has. He appears to be a guy who adjusts and grows.
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#241721) #
Gregor tweets Lind is day-to-day, should play Tuesday
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#241722) #
Snider hasn't done anything since his demotion to suggest he's ready to be called back up, if the intention was ever to "fix" him in AAA.

Both Farrell and AA explicitly insisted when he was demoted that it was a roster crowding situation and they didn't expect him to "fix" anything this time.  This may have been dissembling or he may have raised concerns after going back to Vegas but all i can do is take them at their word.

uglyone - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#241724) #
well, Bautista is playing and Lind's xrays are clear, so so much for that.

still, though, why would we call up snider instead of cooper?

Cooper deserves a call, snider doesn't.
dan gordon - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#241725) #

Great to see Syndergaard and Nicolino moved up to Lansing.

McGowan had a rough outing today.  Only lasted 3 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs on 6 hits, didn't strike out anybody.   

Spookie Wookie - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#241726) #
I watched McGowan in New Britain today. His velocity was good -- 91-93 consistently, some 94 and 96. I am not sure on the accuracy of those 96s; they might have been stray readings, as both the 96s I saw were on batted balls. (For comparison's sake, I don't think I've ever seen a Fisher Cats starter higher than 93 on the gun in New Britain before today). He was leaving the ball up and the wind was blowing straight out to center. There was a towering 410-foot home run hit off him that was definitely wind-aided in terms of its distance (but still very well hit). His breaking balls did not seem sharp. Other than his pitching, he looks like he's in shape. His facial hair looks horrible though :)

Gose grounded out weakly to short a couple times but was patient and seeing a lot of pitches in each at bat.

Noticed that the Fisher Cats bat boys were wearing "Toronto" uniforms, in Blue Jays grey. I'd never noticed that before. I don't know if it's normal, but it seemed odd (Fisher Cats uniforms are completely different color than the Jays).
92-93 - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#241728) #
Cooper's 58:37 BB:K ratio shows a hitter with a very good plan at the plate and makes me discount his PCL stat a little less than normal.

I absolutely love Farrell bringing Janssen back out for a 3rd inning here.
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#241729) #
at various times over the past few years, when the subject of 40 man roster construction is at hand, I've voiced the opinion that it would be no great loss to take Luis Perez off the roster.

Clearly, I had no clue. There's a lesson to be learned there in terms of the difference in what I (or anyone) can infer from the stat sheet and what the internal decision makers see.

In case you were not paying attention - Perez threw five perfect innings today and finished with one hit and two walks allowed - all in the sixth inning.

Janssen finished the game with three innings of no-hit relief BTW - he's the most indespensible guy in our bullpen.


Jonny German - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#241731) #
Me too on having questioned Luis Perez' spot on the 40-man prior to this season. He sure looks a lot better going forward than that other hard throwing lefty that is happily throwing for the Orioles nowadays...
TamRa - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#241733) #
I think Cooper has a better future than most professional evaluators (whose comments I've heard) have said - though it would be so much better if he played good defense - I'm thinking sorta like your typical Casey Kotchman.

But I don't think that future is with the Blue Jays - and Travis Snider's might be. The only reason I'd give Cooper significant at bats would be to showcase him for a trade, and even that would fly in the face of the claim that the only reason Snider went down was at-bats.

China fan - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#241734) #

Francisco would have pitched the 9th inning tonight, except that he had "soreness in his right shoulder" according to Farrell.  The only other options were Camp and Ledezma  -- at least those were the only two pitchers who were warming up in the bullpen at that point -- so Farrell opted to give Janssen a third inning.   So it's not quite the anointment of Janssen as the new Jays closer -- at least not yet.   He might be there soon, however.

As I noted in the other thread, I think Perez and Alvarez are forcing their way into the discussion for the 2012 rotation.  It's very early days, but after McGowan's setback today, I could see Perez and Alvarez possibly being the frontrunners for the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation next season, unless Anthopoulos acquires another pitcher by trade or free agency.   They're certainly ahead of Drabek at this point, and McGowan still has a fair distance to go to establish himself as a potential 2012 starter.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#241735) #
The timing of the Nicolino and Syndergaard promotions suggests an effort to give them a taste of full-season playoff ball. It's also a nice perk for the fans in Lansing. Enjoy the show, LF.
Thomas - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#241737) #
I am another who has questioned Luis Perez's 40-man roster before. I, too, stand corrected. Whether he'll keep this up is unknown, but his first 50 innings have gone much better than I expected.
Mylegacy - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#241740) #
Alvarez and Perez are both pretty out standing guys, no doubt.

BUT - I've  Yen it might be Yu.

Yu's Persian name is Farid - meaning "Glorious" (his father is Iranian and once lived in the States and his mother is Japanese).

Wouldn't he look Farid in Jay's Blue?
hypobole - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#241743) #
If AA wasn't going to spend 3.5 on Beede, he isn't going to spend 50 on Yu.
Hodgie - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#241744) #

"If AA wasn't going to spend 3.5 on Beede, he isn't going to spend 50 on Yu."

He may very well not but it will have nothing to do with what happened with Beede, they are completely separate situations.

johnny was - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#241745) #
Aside from Ichiro, and for a short period Akinori Otsuka and perhaps Akinori Iwamura, none of the Japanese players who've gone through the posting system in the past decade have accomplished anything of note in MLB.  We can all have a good laugh about the Yankees paying Kei Igawa $20 million to suck heartily in the minor leagues and the Bosox $100 million investment in Daisuke Matsuzka, but should recognize that this is probably the highest risk/lowest reward international market.  
soupman - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#241747) #
had daisuke been healthy, he would be a far better option for a 4/5 starter than say, barry zito.

anyway, you judge based on talent, not nationality.

hypobole - Sunday, August 21 2011 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#241748) #

He may very well not but it will have nothing to do with what happened with Beede, they are completely separate situations.

They may be separate, but not completely. AA really like Beede, but was not prepared to pay more than what he felt was his value. This despite the fact more than a few other teams relatively overpaid to get their picks signed. So AA might bid on Yu, but the bid and the contract will be at AA's value, which will come nowhere close to the $50 million or so some team a lot more desperate or flush with cash will end up paying to bring Yu over to MLB.
TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#241753) #
Aside from Ichiro, and for a short period Akinori Otsuka and perhaps Akinori Iwamura, none of the Japanese players who've gone through the posting system in the past decade have accomplished anything of note in MLB.

I've not ever been caught up in the "Dice K" fan club - but his second season in the U.S. was definitely "accomplishing something"

I don't know if Saito was posted, or a FA - but he had a nice run.

It's certainly a very high risk market. I file it under "trusting your scouts" - that is, i want him to be ready to go big, to check it out and do all the necessary leg-work. If he concludes this guy is the Ichiro of of pitchers, go big...if he's too risky, let someone else take the chance.

All I'd be against is assuming it's too rich without even bothering to seriously look into it and do the scouting and so forth.

I think we should be done with the days where we just write something off by saying "we aren't the Yankees or Red Sox"
China fan - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:04 AM EDT (#241754) #

In the daily Hechavarria watch:  he was hitless yesterday, but picked up 2 walks and a stolen base, so he still had a productive day and flashed some skills that could be useful in the majors.   Also picked up an error -- his 2nd for Las Vegas. 

Another mysterious absence for Snider yesterday -- he wasn't in the starting lineup for the 2nd time in the past few days.  He came into the game as a pinch-runner for Cooper in the 9th inning.  Does he have a minor injury, or are they trying to let him clear his head and work on his mechanics in the batting cage?

Cooper had 3 hits and currently has an OPS of exactly .999.

Kyle Davies pitched a scoreless inning from the bullpen -- no hits or walks.  The optimistic view is that he might be in the mix for a 2012 bullpen slot with the Jays if he shows enough in the next few weeks in Las Vegas.  On the other hand, he'd have to be willing to take a huge cut from his 2011 salary of $3.2-million....

China fan - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:17 AM EDT (#241756) #

By the way, I agree with those who say that David Cooper deserves a longer look in the majors.  Say what you will about the PCL, but Cooper has the highest batting average in the league, a full 20 points ahead of the next-best hitter, and his OBP of .446 is far ahead of the next-best in that category too.  He has 58 walks and just 38 strikeouts this year.  He hasn't shown as much home-run power as some other PCL hitters, but he's still just 24 and could improve in that category too.

Who are the September call-ups at the end of the PCL season?  Snider, Cooper, Loewen, Jeroloman and a couple of pitchers? 

John Northey - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#241757) #
Snider, Cooper, Loewen, Jeroloman makes sense.

Snider and Cooper have been up, have offense so good pinch hitters if nothing else.

Loewen has been all over the outfield and will be a free agent or have to be offered arbitration and a ML contract for 2012 so you might as well see if he can be useful.

Jeroloman would fill the 3rd catcher role that is always a part of September. Ryan Budde is the other Vegas catcher and he has some ML experience (35 PA over 4 seasons) and has hit 240/335/415 this year vs Jeroloman 242/335/297 so he might get the call instead. Depends on 40 man slots (Jeroloman is on it, Budde isn't).

A utility infielder might be nice, and Chris Woodward was up earlier. The only 40 man guys is Hechavarria so he might get the shot.

Pitchers on the 40 man and not up are Drabek, Farina (AA reliever with only 17 innings so far), Mills, Walters (5 ML innings super wild, 11.48 ERA in Vegas). I could see Drabek & Mills being called up with Mills getting mop up work and Drabek a few starts once other guys are shut down. Very little is appealing but Vegas will do that to pitchers. Heck, Jason Lane's 11 K vs 2 BB in 11 IP is tempting.

Right now there are 39 guys on the 40 man roster so roster management might come into play.
Ryan Day - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#241758) #
Hiroki Kuroda wasn't posted, but has still had a very nice career in North America.

Anyway, Darvish has nothing to do with Beede. Beede is in high school,while Darvish has been pitching professionally at the almost-MLB level for years. Beede could sign with one professional team, while Darvish - through the posting system - will go to the highest bidder.

Anthopoulos was offering big money for Chapman - and, iirc, said he regretted not going higher - so he's not afraid of big spending on a relatively unknown quantity.

I have no idea how interested Anthopoulos will be in Darvish, or what sort of value he'd put on him. But I expect he's at least looking at the possibility.
Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#241761) #
I take it Farina has missed a lot of time with injury - was it earlier in the season or is he still inactive now? If he's healthy it'd be nice to give him a look. I really hope he doesn't end up on the Lee Gronkiewicz path, a lights-out minor league reliever who never gets a real shot in the majors.
greenfrog - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#241762) #
Didn't Farina have TJ surgery?
MatO - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#241763) #
It was reported here a couple of weeks ago that Farina had TJ surgery.  He's been out since probably May.
Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#241765) #
It appears I'm rather out of the loop. I generally read the MLU threads but not the MLUs themselves.
John Northey - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#241766) #
Given just one 40 man slot open I'm betting Loewen gets it while Jeroloman gets his first call up as does Hechavarria - in both cases they'll mainly get a chance to learn what the majors is all about with a few dozen PA at most. Snider, Cooper, Mills, Drabek coming up with Mills & Drabek giving us heart attacks on the mound when they get their chance as others are shut down. Walters I'd put on the highly likely to be released list in order to open a slot. The 15 day DL guys (Rauch, Tallet, Villanueva), if returning healthy, will fill in the pen.

Others on the 40 man and not the 25 include Mastroianni and Sierra.

This will be a hard winter on AA to make a 40 man roster. Who do you dump, who do you keep? Who has to be added this winter as well, since those guys become possible call-ups too (gotta dump people to make room so might as well get it over with).
sam - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#241767) #
I agree that the Jays have likely scouted Darvish and have had internal discussions about Darvish, but he's been explicit in saying that he won't pursue Darvish or that market.

Even comparing him to Chapman is unfair. Chapman discussions were in the $20-30 million range, Darvish will be posted at $50 million and then will require another $50 in contract obligations. You're looking at a $100 million commitment to someone with no track record in North America. It doesn't fit with the Blue Jays. The more likely situation would be inquiring about someone with a proven track record and who is cost controlled. Someone like Josh Johnson is more fitting with the Jays strategic goals.
China fan - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#241768) #

The Jays need to add at least two or three pitchers to the team in September, so that they have lots of depth in the bullpen if the young starters can't go beyond 4 or 5 innings.  And it's just a traditional way of allowing more rest for the bullpen mainstays at the end of a long season.  So normally you'd expect two or three pitching additions in September. 

Pitchers who could be added to the roster in September include McGowan, Villanueva, Tallet, Mills and Drabek.   In the case of the first three, it will depend on their health, obviously, and also whether AA and Farrell want to assess their suitability for the 2012 team.  Some of them might just be shut down for the season, or even maybe DFA'd (Tallet).  As for Mills and Drabek, some psychology could be at work in the decision.  Do you promote them to the majors as a way to give them an encouraging slap on the back for a long and challenging season?  Or, in the case of Drabek, do you shut them down early to let them clear their heads for a fresh start in 2012?   In any event, I'd expect at least two or three of those five pitchers to be promoted next month.

sam - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#241770) #
I think Drabek should be shut down and sent to Dunedin to relax and work individually with Dane Johnson. I think if he shows progress, you send him to the Arizona Fall League.

Speaking of, who would you send this year to Arizona?

For me, it's got to be Adeiny Hechavrria, if anything to continue his hot streak against good competition and dispell notions that his success is due to his change of location. Drabek, if he is shut down and needs to get some confidence back after working stuff out with Dane. I think you probably send Etheridge to see if his success in Dunedin is translatable. You probably send Moises Sierra, as the Jays will likely need to make a decision about him in the next year or two whether or not they think he can play at the ML level--he is on the 40 man roster. I think Gose probably doesn't go. He seems to have stagnated a bit this past month or two. He has also played a lot of games this year. I wonder if they send anyone from the Lansing outfield. I doubt any of our top pitching prospects at AA and A+ go. Hutchison, McGuire, Woj, Molina, and Carreno have all pitched significant innings and will pitch in the MInor League playoffs.
hypobole - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#241771) #
I'm fairly sure we have 5 players who will require 40 man roster spots - Travis d'Arnaud, Nestor Molina, and Mike McDade are definites. The other 2 are Dustin McGowan if he's resigned and Danny Farquar if the Jays still feel he has major league potential. I don't see guys like Tolisano, Ahrens being protected and may be underestimating the Jays interest in relievers such as Evan Crawford. .
johnny was - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#241772) #
Just to clarify on my earlier comment, I in know way meant to imply that Japanese players can't hack it in the MLB.  Hideo Nomo and Hideki Matsui have proven that both Japanese pitchers and position players can excel in North America.   That Ichiro fella, too.

My point remains that the posting system has yielded Ichiro and a bunch of guys who ended up average at best, but mostly highly expensive disappointments.  Here's the list, courtesy of wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

Japanese pitchers who've had some success here like Hiroki Kurdoa and Koji Uehara came over as free agents in their early 30s once their indentured servitude was up (thus no posting fee) and did provide a good value to the Dodgers and O's respectively.  These kind of guys should be sniffed out.

John Northey - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#241775) #
Good point johnny was - I can see AA going for the free agents from Japan who would often be looking for cheaper deals in order to prove themselves in the majors. The posting system is such a crapshoot (you guess what the player is worth, offer 1/2 that to the team and 1/2 to the player with no idea what anyone else is offering) that I can't see AA going for it. However, as long as 2 teams fight for those guys their prices will remain high.

Btw, appropriate that Kei Igawa's lifetime ERA in the majors is 6.66 eh? Given he has just 4 starts in AAA and 14 games in AA (8 in relief) one figures he is pretty much done. His contract ends after this year at which point I suspect he'll head back to Japan.
Ryan Day - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#241777) #
I'm not sure enough players have gone through the posting system to make it significant. Only four players have had significan posting fees - Suzuki, Ishii, Matsuzaka, and Igawa - with Nishioka and Iwamura much further down at around $5 million. Of those four, Ichiro's a possible HOFer, Matsuzaka's been moderately successful, and Ishii and Igawa flamed out. The benefit of the posting system is that you have a better chance of acquiring a player in his prime - most Japanese players don't become FAs until they're around 30, at which time they're on the way down.

Interestingly, many high profile Japanese pitchers struggle with control in North America. BB/9 rates:
Matsuzaka - 4.4
Igawa - 4.6
Ishii - 5.6

...even back to Hideo Nomo at 4.1. Look at Dice-K's 2008: He only gave up 6.9 hits/9, but he allowed 5 bb/9.

I wonder: Ichiro is known for his aggressive approach, and few of the Japanese hitters we've seen have had much in the way of patience (Matsui & Fukodome are the only ones who'll take a walk). Are pitchers like Matsuzaka & Igawa able to succeed because Japanese hitters are more likely to swing at close pitches?

Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#241778) #
There may also be an issue about differing effective strike zones.  The pitch fx data is certainly not standardized, as we saw the other day here.
92-93 - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#241779) #
FWIW, Dice-K was 33-15 with a 3.75 ERA over his first 2 seasons before the injury problems started.
johnny was - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#241787) #
Even in his one really good season by traditional measures in 2008, Dice K's FIP was more than a run higher than his ERA.  Regardless, I don't know how you can look back on his 5 years as a Bosock and not say that he, as a $100 million player, was a pretty terrible investment.  Sure, injuries are unpredictable and Boston can eat that money, but a similar deal would have a crippling effect on the Jays for years.

If AA really had the dollars it took to make a serious run at Yu Darvish, I'd much rather him throw it at known commodities like Albert Pujols or even Prince Fielder.  Better he avoided $100 million+ players entirely.  We'll see how much it takes to sign all three soon enough, but I'd wager the difference won't be as large as one might think.
92-93 - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#241789) #
I think you are grossly underestimating the amount of money Pujols is going to get on the free market. ARod got 10/275 at the same age.
johnny was - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#241797) #
The point I'm making is that Yu Darvish, if he comes over in 2012, is almost certain to be far more expensive than he's worth in the long run.  I would assume that Dice-K's $100 million is the starting point for the posting fee + contract and that he ultimately costs somewhere in the neighbourhood of $150 million given his superior track record in Japan and that he'd be a year younger. 

As for Pujols, A-Rod is so far the only player to sign a $200 million contract in MLB history (he did it twice) and it's very difficult to understand why the Yankees offered him 10 years for $275 million ($84 mil higher than the highest non A-Rod contract, Jeter's 10-year deal in 2001) on the last one when they weren't actually competing with any other bidder.  Maybe he gets $200 million, maybe he doesn't.  I would agree that he'll be more expensive than Yu Darvish, but probably not by more than $30-40 million.
uglyone - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#241799) #
Japanese League Totals:

Daisuke (18-25): 1402.2ip, 8.7k/9, 2.7k/bb, 1.14whip, 2.95era
Darvish (20-23): 792.1ip, 9.2k/9, 4.4k/bb, 0.91whip, 1.81era

Yu is younger, much better (i.e. doesn't have DiceK's control problems), and has about half as much wear and tear on his arm as DiceK did.

An added bonus is that Darvish's success isn't credited to some magical mythical Gyroball.
TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#241800) #
but a similar deal would have a crippling effect on the Jays for years.

No no NO - that's the exact mistake in thinking I'm arguing against.

The Jays projected payroll next year is ~$75 mil.

The Red Sox paid  $51 million for a posting fee and he's on a 6 year contract and a little over $51 million on a six year contract in which the highest annual salary is $10 million.

A roughly identical contract will NOT REMOTELY cripple the Jays financially. They were ready and able to give Chapman a bonus of $25 million. Even assuming they had to finance a $50 million posting fee, they would incur a $10-12 million annual payment on that, and a roughly $10 million payment to Darvish.

that takes the payroll (even though the posting fee doesn't count as payroll, for this discussion I'll pretend it does) to a point that is STILL under $100 million in 2012 - and this for a team that insists they could go into the $140 mil range when the time comes to add free agents.

would it be a PITA to be on the hook for big money for insufficent return? Sure. But if we'd not been able to off-load Vernon Wells, would the team have been financially hampered in making ANY of the moves they've made so far?  Having a PITA is not the same thing as being "crippled"

I repeat - this whole "we are not the Red Sox and Yankees" mindset among the fans needs to die in a fire. No one is the Yankees, not even Boston - but if the ownership and management loudly says "we can spend twice what we are spending now when the time comes - I have to speculate based on that proposition.

Could they be lying? Yeah, sure. But if I assume that whatever they say is untrue, then i can't project ANY thing about the future. I just sit on my hands and react to whatever happens. If i am going to say "sign Fielder" or "Sign Pujols" or heck even "sign Kelly Johnson" then I have to make certain assumptions and I so no reason to assume they are going to go so heavily on record that they are going to do something and then not do it.

So, to me the question of "should we sign Darvish?" is will he be an asset to the team worthy of the investment? Can we get noteably more from him over the next 5-6 years than, for instance, Henderson Alvarez or Deck McGuire?

Whether or not we can handle a $20 mil annual commitment between salary and fee is not even on my radar. If I've been told the truth about what they are willing to pay, it's not a concern.
uglyone - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#241802) #
Remember along with their posting fee for DiceK, the Red Sox got some exclusive japanese TV deal money (I don't know the exact details), which the Jays I'm sure would get as well...along with them likely boosting their gate revenues a bit.

That posting fee wasn't just money down the drain.
johnny was - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#241804) #
Jeff Passan (http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-japandarvish032308) and Jim Caple (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=darvish) have both suggested Yu Darvish's posting fee will be $75 million.   As TamRa points out, that's the entire team payroll for a year.  Just to buy the rights to negotiate with a single player?  Even if Rogers can afford to double payroll, AA still has a responsibility to spend wisely.   Going down this road is not wise in my view.
TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#241808) #
I'm fairly sure we have 5 players who will require 40 man roster spots - Travis d'Arnaud, Nestor Molina, and Mike McDade are definites. The other 2 are Dustin McGowan if he's resigned and Danny Farquar if the Jays still feel he has major league potential.

There's also, potentially, Jesse Carlson. McGowan will be added before the end of the season so he'd have to come back off again if they gave up on him.

There are 39 spots filled right now - lets go ahead and add McGowan and make it 40 - and here's a list of impending free agents or obvious release candidates:

Francisco
Rauch
Camp
Ledzma
Lewis
Tallet
Molina
Hill
McDonald
McCoy

Then, if you need to, you can consider ditching Walters, Mastorianni, and Jeroloman and if you still need a spot you can probably deal Mills for a player young enough to not need to be on the 40.

if the tentative 2012 roster is:
Romero/Morrow/Cecil/McGowan/Drabek
Willaneuva/Listch/Janssen/Perez/??

Arencibia/??
Lind/Encarncion
??
Escobar/??
Lawrie/Teahan
Snder/Rasmus/Bautista/Thames/Davis

- then you have five spots to fill, and 10 obvious exits so I'm sure we can add the three sure things you mentioned easily enough. And still have room for, for instance, Loewen or someone we don't see coming.

TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#241810) #
As TamRa points out, that's the entire team payroll for a year.

But would that be paid all at once? If so, then I could understand thinking it's too big a hit all at once (and if so let's quit dancing and pencil him into the Yankees rotation next year*) but my assumption is that this is something that will be spread out over several years.

*let's not underestimate the value of keeping him out of NY by the way.
DaveB - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#241813) #
Japanese League Totals:

Daisuke (18-25): 1402.2ip, 8.7k/9, 2.7k/bb, 1.14whip, 2.95era

Darvish (20-23): 792.1ip, 9.2k/9, 4.4k/bb, 0.91whip, 1.81era


Darvish turned 25 a few days ago. His Japanese League totals (ages 18-24): 1194IP, 870H, 321BB, 1156K, 2.05ERA. Great stats.



TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#241815) #
Speaking of, who would you send this year to Arizona?

First you have to consider the eligibility rules:

Eligibility Rules

The eligibility rules to play in the AFL are simple.

The roster size is 30 players per team.

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

  • All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.
  • One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.
  • One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.
  • No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
  • To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.
--------------------------------

So rule out anyone on the DL after mid-July (McGuire being the obvious one); rule out most Latin players (winter leagues in the Dominican and Venezuela); rule out anyone below AA (except one guy);

What does that leave?

Hechavarria - one foreign player, and being Cuban he's the obvious choice
d'Arnaud - an obvious choice
Hutchison - if he has the innings available, he'd be the one guy from A ball since he was promoted too late to be considered a AA guy
McDade - seems pretty obvious
Drabek - maybe, if they think he has come up with something that needs work, otherwise they will work on him in-house.
Loewen - got a taste last year, might be an obvious choice this year

that's six - possible alternates include Cooper, Gose and Jenkins

Molina and Sierra would not be eligible, and neither would any of those who've not played above Dunedin - with the possible exception that if Hutchison doesn't go you could legally select one player from A ball - but there's no one down there you'd want to seen to Arizona this year.


uglyone - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#241818) #
Darvish turned 25 a few days ago. His Japanese League totals (ages 18-24): 1194IP, 870H, 321BB, 1156K, 2.05ERA. Great stats.

ah thanks. B/R tricked me.
Gerry - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#241827) #

The AFL rosters are filled through a draft system.  The Blue Jays will be assigned an AFL team with four other major league organizations.

Those five team then have a draft and they draft positions, not players.  The Jays will have to prioritize their players they want to send to Arizona.  Lets say Hech is the Jays number 1 priority, they will draft the shortstop position first.  Ultimately a team should be able to get its top two and maybe three players set in Arizona.  After that positions might fill up and you might not be able to send a player, other than on the taxi squad.

Lets say the Jays want to send Hech and d'Arnaud.  They select shortstop for their first position.  By the time their second pick comes around two teams might have selected catcher and the Jays would be unable to send d'Arnaud to be a regular AFL player.

There is always room for pitchers, most pitchers hit their innings limit before the AFL starts.  The Jays will look at sending relievers and maybe a starter like Andrew Liebel who is coming back from injury.

TamRa - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#241832) #
good info Gerry - I'd forgotten about the position draft thing.


Ryan Day - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#241833) #
d'Arnaud - an obvious choice

Unless they want to give him some time off. He's spent a lot of time behind the plate this year.
BumWino - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#241909) #

Mylegacy

What a glorious opportunity to cheerfully admit that you were absolutely correct in your belief that Lawrie's ongoing contribution would be more than worth the services of Shaun Marcum. 

I note with interest that Yu2 have recently taken an interest in the Middle-East.  Sort of a really bad three-pronged pun.  Something sharp for you to sit upon when enjoying one of your alcoholic stupors, you know, in order to allow you to ascertain whether or not you are still alive.

Have a good one, friend.

 

 

Mylegacy - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#241925) #
Bum Wino

It's "Farid" to see you back on the blog! I had thought you'd fallen off the end of the world. Delighted to see your absence hasn't dulled what passes for your wit! Welcome Back!

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