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How important is .500, versus other things?


As things stand before the conclusion of their series with the Orioles, the Jays are 68-68. With that record they would obviously have to have a winning record for the remainder of the season to finish above .500. Is this entirely meaningless distinction necessary? I would argue that it's pretty important. There is some psychological mumbo jumbo to be spouted off, sure, but there are some concrete, real world applications. I think it's reasonably clear that the team has about two windows of contention as currently built. First of all is next year. Jose Bautista has been the best player in baseball this year (I don't think there's any legitimate way to debate that if we're not including that most inscrutable of words, value.) It is in fact a much better year than last year, when he was also real good. But he's 30 and soon to be 31, and while he has good old man skills (power and walks), well, he ain't no Benjamin Button, so he's going to start getting worse at some point. The Jays can't really say they've had the best player in baseball since, well, ever really, and it seems like the sort of thing one ought to try to capitalize on. Other holes need to be filled of course, but the team probably does have to try to go for it in some fashion.

After that, they seem pretty well set for 2014-2016 (well, hopefully) as that's when prospects like Anthony Gose, Travis d'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Henderson Alvarez, etc. will be hitting their strides, with the team still in control of the Romero's, Lawrie's, Rasmi, Snider's/Thames' of the world. Of course there is probably some overlap between those two movements in 2013, and there's no reason the team won't be good that year; this is just to say that a whole 'nother cycle of players will be making their marks starting in 2013/2014 and they'll hopefully be good by 2014/2015. Home team optimism I know. But back to those real world implications. If ever the Jays were going to make a real world splash in the free agent market, this would seem to be the year to do it.

Two superstar hitters are on the market at arguably the position of greatest need for the Jays, first base. Prince Fielder is heavy but only 27 and has been healthy. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols, and his "down year" seems mostly babip driven, though he is 31. Both men I'm sure will be in the Adrian Gonzalez ballpark, which is to say ~$150 million total and at least 6 years (A-Gon got 7). I'd be surprised if either of them was below $23 mil in average annual value, though the Red Sox and Yankees will presumably not be in on them. CC Sabathia will also get a pot of money, but I don't think the Yankees will let him get away. I think Jays fans would be thrilled to sign either slugger, and it would make the team into real contenders provided a few other issues got sorted out. It would be easier to sell players on playing in Toronto if the team we're seen as being more on the cusp as well, hence the necessity to win. More winning also helps the attendance, which is up by over 2500 fans a game, (there are popular teams left so it might rise further), and then the team maybe says well geez, we're winning so we can afford to add more players, or conversely, adding Prince Fielder wouldn't hurt too much in the attendance department, plus it would create a little buzz around the team, whatever. So I think there are a bunch of reasons why winning would help the team going forward. (Also please don't bite our heads off that the team should be spending $157,283,947.93 a year already 92-93.)

The flip side to this conversation is that, ultimately,  winning 84 games vs. 78 games doesn't affect the team at all - they still don't make the playoffs. And you can make a good case that having young guys in the lineup getting experience will yield actual, tangible benefits for next year in the form of preparedness. I do agree with this, and so I would hope that the Jays aren't going to prioritize winning over player development. However, I don't think it will be an issue much this September. There is no John Buck this year, with Dewayne Wise being the closest example, and Wise isn't blocking anyone, really, and will go back to the bench upon Colby's return. The team's logic behind signing him is a bit strained, but not implausible. Other than that, everyone playing figures to be around or in the mix for next year. The best and closest position playing prospects are Adeiny Hechavarria and Anthony Gose; I don't think either are ready to start in the majors next year, and the team has concretely indicated that in the case of Hech anyway. After that, the only guy in AAA who could be said to have a legitimate chance of being a big leaguer that could help the Jays is David Cooper. I'm not as high on Cooper as some folk - he's a worse version of Lyle Overbay at best, but you could plausibly argue he deserves some at bats.

Pitching-wise things are a little more interesting, though several guys have to be hitting their innings limits. Every starter in AA has basically come up that's going to, and they are in the playoffs for at least the next week. There are no legit starters in AAA other than Kyle Drabek (I'm assuming we've had our fill of Brad Mills), and he doesn't look ready for MLB in the least. He could come back up and throw some low leverage pen innings. The only pen arm that qualifies as relatively young in Las Vegas is Ronny Uviedo, and in AA maybe you give Alan Farina a chance. Other than that though, there aren't any young guys that would plausibly break camp with the team next year I don't think, so for all intents and purposes the team might as well just roll out their regular lineup and give the league what for.

September call-ups start today. Thoughts on who you'd like to see come up?


How Hard Should the Jays Try to Win in September? | 137 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#242884) #

I dont think the record means a thing. Its about rebuilding the team and being prepared for the future.

When they put Patterson and Rivera on the field - the white flag was raised anyway.

Its more about what AA has done with guys like Thames and Lawrie and Drabek to name a few - a very nice entry into the big leagues. (I know - Drabek had a tough year - but he's young and talented)

Just no more retreads and placeholders. That isnt what winning teams do. 

 

I would love to see Cooper rewarded for his fine season in AAA - but he has no future with the club

I would love to see Loewen be given a chance. He deserves one - but I dont think he will be with us much longer either.

Dont mess with Hech or Gose - neither are ready and both are very young.

Only other one is Mastro - but when Dewayne Wise is ranked ahead of you - your career in Toronto is over. 

dan gordon - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#242891) #
Well, you can cross Farina off your list, he had Tommy John surgery a couple of months ago and won't be available until late next year at the earliest.  As far as callups are concerned, the Jays typically call up only about 3-5 players.  They've stated in previous years that there is no point in calling up more than that because there would be no chance to give them playing time.  This year, they will have Rauch coming off the DL and McGowan will be up for sure, according to Alex, so that's 2.  They already have their 3rd catcher called up.  With Rauch and McGowan, they'll have 14 pitchers, so that might be it for the pitching staff.  They may want to have a look at Farquhar, or try Mills as a reliever to see how that looks, although I would say both of those are unlikely.  I highly doubt Drabek would get the call - I think he needs to clear his head and regroup.  For position players, they may want another middle infielder, which would probably be Hechavarria, i would think, although that might not happen until after the AA playoffs.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them have a look at Loewen, given his contractual/option situation.  If Davis can get healthy in time, they've indicated they'd like to get him in a few games.  I guess Cooper is a possibility, but where would he play?  He'd basically be a bat to come off the bench.  They want to have a good look at EE to decide on his option for next year, and he's been one of the team's best hitters the last couple of months, and I don't see them benching Adam Lind.   So Rauch, McGowan, Hechavarria, Loewen and Davis would be my guess.  Maybe Cooper.
bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#242893) #

Prediction:

Pitchers - no clue

Position players - Cooper-Loewen-Davis

 

John Northey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#242894) #
Drabek is the only kid not up and playing who might be worth giving time to but with his struggles this year it might be best to let him rest. Cooper, Loewen and Mastro are the only other kids who jump out, but none should be regulars in 2012 with backup/injury replacement being their roles. I'd give all 3 a call-up just to see if they can handle the majors. I'd also get Jeroloman into a few games now that September is here so you can see if he can hit ML pitching well enough to be the backup in 2012 (ie: hit for a 80+ OPS+).

A couple of AAA relievers would be nice to see, such as Danny Farquhar and Ronald Uviedo, while Bobby Korecky is older (31) but done well (2.12 ERA over 51 IP in AA/AAA 8.3 K vs 2.8 BB). Evan Crawford might be worth a shot too.
China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#242896) #

The plural of Rasmus is Rasmi?

China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#242897) #
There shouldn't be a question mark there.  Anders is correct.  The plural of Rasmus is indeed Rasmi.
Ryan Day - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#242898) #
Like you said, there aren't any real conflicts between veterans and almost-ready rookies. If someone like Hech gets promoted, it'll be mostly for late-inning replacements and the chance to spend time on the MLB roster. Maybe Cooper gets to come up for some pinch-hitting appearances, but I can't imagine the team sitting Lind or Encarnacion for any significant time.

I suspect they'll want to give McGowan a serious look, but he's probably the only significant September callup. Interesting to see if he starts or pitches out of the pen.

bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#242900) #

There is no reason to take Hech or Gose up.

AA knows they are both top grade prospects - and very young.

Both still need work at various parts of their game.

Let them play - and win a Championship - that will do more for them than sitting on an MLB bench or playing a meaningless game or two.

Just my opinion.

Ron - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#242901) #
I remember hearing from a media member (I believe it was Jeff Blair) last September, that ownership thought it was important to finish above .500. The Jays went with their "A" lineup most games in September and finished 9-2 in their last 11 games to finish with 85 wins. Ownership belives there is some sort of physcological benefit just like how retailers will price their products ending with .99.

Every core member of the Jays is locked up the next 3 seasons. We have an ownership that says they have no problem opening the wallet when the time is right. The Jays have a stacked farm system that can be used to help the big league club through trades and promotion. If Rogers doesn't make a serious push for Prince Fielder than I hope they sell the team. I don't remember the last time a hitter of his quality and at his young age was available as a free agent.

The Jays are going to be ranked near the bottom in attendance this year again (despite the fact they have a lot of home games against the Yankees and Red Sox). The GTA has sent a clear message that they aren't going to buy tickets until the Jays are a playoff contender.

bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#242903) #

Ron,

Thats not saying much for the Toronto fans.

Regardless of this year's record - how can a true fan not be excited about a team that has players lilke Lawrie - Drabek - Gose - Thames etc...

They are loaded with young talent - and AA has made some super trades.

What drives fans away from the game - including me - are players like Patterson and Rivera. I think that was a mistake (noone is perfect)

There isnt anyone I know that would be willing to pay to watch players like that play. Even for free.

No more placeholders - and no more retreads - and Toronto's attendance will be just fine IMO.

 

 

 

 

greenfrog - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#242905) #
An update on some ex-Jays, for fun (post-trade stats):

Wells (LAA): 215/250/390 (428 PA)
Napoli (Tex): 294/389/582 (347 PA)
Rivera (LAD): 284/336/433 (149 PA)
Jackson (Cards): 4-2, 3.57 ERA, 45.1 IP, 52 H, 7 HR (!), 12 BB, 27 K
Rzep (Cards): 0-0, 0.75 ERA, 12 IP, 10 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 11 K
Dotel (Cards): 0-2, 1 SV, 2.92 ERA, 12.1 IP, 9 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 16 K
Patterson (Cards): 190/209/286, 0 SB, 1 CS (44 PA)
Frasor (Chi): 1-2, 5.73 ERA, 11 IP, 12 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 16 K
Stewart (Chi): 1-2, 5.86 ERA, 27.2 IP, 33 H, 4 HR, 9 BB, 19K
Hill (AZ): 355/412/581 (34 PA)
McDonald (AZ): 188/235/188 (17 PA)

And the return (leaving aside filler like Teahen, Tallet, Miller, et al.):

Francisco (Tor): 1-4, 11 SV, 3.76 ERA, 40.2 IP, 41 H, 5 HR, 16 BB, 42 K
Rasmus (Tor): 216/239/398, 3 BB, 22 K (92 PA)
Johnson (Tor): 308/419/577, 5 BB, 7 K (31 PA)

Interesting - the Hill/Johnson challenge trade has worked out really well for both teams so far.
China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#242906) #
I think at least 2 or 3 pitchers will be called up, if only to avoid situations like Tuesday when the Jays had nobody available except Tallet and Lewis in an extra-inning game. Rauch was added to the roster today, which helps on depth (if not on 9th-inning options). They still need another one or two pitchers for depth in case of in-game injuries or extra innings or blow-outs. It's a long season, and it's beneficial to have a bullpen of 9 or 10 pitchers at this time of year. So I'm thinking McGowan and then one or two from a long list that could include Mills, Richmond, Farquhar, Davies, Gaudin, Henn and Uviedo. Then of course there's the question of Drabek, but I really don't see how he gets any benefit from a couple innings here or there in September.
lexomatic - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#242908) #
The GTA has sent a clear message that they aren't going to buy tickets until the Jays are a playoff contender.

Personally, I'm only going to get a handful of tickets a year. I'm excited about what's happening with the team, but I hate going to the ballpark.
I didn't hate it in the past. I really REALLY hate it.
Anders - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#242910) #
Oh yeah, McGowan has to come anyway, and they do need to see what he can do.
Ron - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#242912) #
No more placeholders - and no more retreads - and Toronto's attendance will be just fine IMO.

Well to be fair to the Jays, even the elite teams have retreads (Chavez on the Yanks, Aviles and McDonald on the Red Sox).

The only way the Jays are going to take a big leap in attendance is winning. Big names by themselves don't make a big dent in the box office (Clemens, Halladay, Delgado, Bautista, etc...).

 
Lylemcr - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#242913) #

Greenfrog, nice post.

I think St Louis, CWS and Arizona all have to be happy with the trades. (even Chicago, because they dumped salary).

As a Jay fan, I am happy with both trades.  It is good that everyone does well in a trade. (unless you are trading with the Red Sox or Yankees)

For callups, I want them to call up any borderline playersprospects in AAAAA and give them one final evaluation before the uber prospects we have coming up pushes them out.

Ishai - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#242915) #
Not that I advocate losing as a goal, but it would be nice to have our first round pick protected when we sign the Prince this offseason.
Jonny German - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#242916) #
The GTA has sent a clear message that they aren't going to buy tickets until the Jays are a playoff contender.

This theory doesn't fit so well with Jays attendance seeing the 3rd biggest increase in the league this year (1,905 more fans per game as compared to 2010).
bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#242920) #

Ron,

Comparing the Blue Jays situation to the Yankees or Red Sox isnt what I would do.

The Yankees and Red Sox have Hall of Famers on their team. They can afford to throw a Chavez and Aviles out there once in awhile.

The Jays cannot afford to throw a Patterson and Rivera out there - ever - if fan attendance is the goal. 

Ron - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#242922) #
This theory doesn't fit so well with Jays attendance seeing the 3rd biggest increase in the league this year (1,905 more fans per game as compared to 2010).

The Jays are only averaging 22,809 fans right now. They rank 24th in average attendance. Are more fans going to the Skydome to watch the Jays this season? Yes. When you take into consideration the size of the city and the quality of opponents (heavy dose of the popular Yankees and Red Sox) is the Jays attendance pretty bad? Yes.


John Northey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#242925) #
How is Jays attendance vs other teams who are in big playoff slumps (ie: low hopes). In brackets is the last time they reached the playoffs. Listing teams who haven't made it in 10+ years.

Baltimore (1997) 21,627 per game
Kansas City (1985) 20,466
Pittsburgh (1992) 24,748 (first hopeful year since then)
Seattle (2001) 23,917
Washington (1981 in Montreal) 23,310

Jays (1993) 22,809

So Baltimore (similar situation to Jays) and Kansas are doing worse among the long time no-hopers. Pittsburgh (thanks to a great start), Seattle (not sure why), and Washington (15th of 16 in the NL for attendance, last top 10 was the year they moved there).

Of note is that below Toronto for attendance you see Tampa Bay (18,864) along with Cleveland, Oakland and Florida (dead last in majors at 18,206). Lesson to learn? Don't put a ML team in Florida. The Rays are doing better than the Jays, have been for a few years, yet somehow despite extremely low ticket prices are getting about 4,000 fewer fans a game. Hard to believe that only 3 times out of 14 seasons have the Rays not been in the bottom 4 in the AL for attendance. Their first 2 seasons (7th and 10th) and the last 2 years (11th with 23,148 and 9th with 23,025). For comparison, the Jays have never finished in the bottom 2 of the league for attendance and just once 12th (last year).
soupman - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#242926) #
Pittsburgh is the only team worth comparing the Jays to, imo. They're the only team that has drawn more than the Jays this year that have gone longer without appearing in the playoffs. However, they have a relatively new stadium, and, were regarded to be in a PO race this year until about a month ago. I would wager that as football and hockey start up, they'll see a dip in attendence, while the Jays strength of sched. will bump them up (if only on the backs of bosox and yanks fans).

the dome can hold more than just about any stadium, so when they are doing well, it will be great to see it filled up. until then, it's easy to look at it being less than 1/2 full and think this stinks, but i'll be happy to be able to afford tix at all when the bandwagon is at full speed.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#242928) #
I agree with both Jonny and Ron. 23000 fans per game is not very good for a market this large with an accessible downtown stadium. However, the increase in attendance is promising, and increasing attendance always requires patience. We aren't going to see a bump of 10000 in a single year, but I think they're on the right track.
Thomas - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#242929) #
My September predictions:

Off the DL (at some point): Rauch, Rasmus, Davis
Pitchers: Drabek (who will pitch very sparingly out of the pen), McGowan, Danny Farquhar
Position Players: Cooper, Woodward (who will retire in the offseason and become a minor league manager/coach in Toronto's system)

Out of luck: Mastroianni (signing Wise removed any chance he had) and Loewen (it will be hard enough for Cooper to find at-bats at 1B/DH and once Rasmus and Davis return there will be five outfielders plus McCoy and Teahen).
Ducey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#242930) #

Every core member of the Jays is locked up the next 3 seasons. We have an ownership that says they have no problem opening the wallet when the time is right. The Jays have a stacked farm system that can be used to help the big league club through trades and promotion. If Rogers doesn't make a serious push for Prince Fielder than I hope they sell the team. I don't remember the last time a hitter of his quality and at his young age was available as a free agent.

Ron, putting aside the fact that you post the same thing over and over again (that the Jays must spend like the Leafs or Rangers of old) it seems to me that acquiring Prince Fielder isn't going solve what is wrong with this team. 

This team should hit enough but has some major holes in the pitching staff.  They are 11th in ERA in the AL and have one starter right now who can be counted on - Romero.  The rotation in terms of effectiveness is Romero, Perez, Alvarez, Cecil and Morrow.  Drabek is strugging.  That doesn't look like a winning rotation to me.  The bullpen is a mess.

Instead of trying to win now, I'd rather the Jays tank the rest of the season to improve their draft pick.  Then focus on developing a rotation that can challenge Tampa, BOS and NYY.  This will likely come in a few years internally, but a shrewd pickup of a potential starter and a few good arms for the Bullpen is more in line with what is needed than a big free agent splash. 

baagcur - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#242931) #
The GTA has sent a clear message that they aren't going to buy tickets until the Jays are a playoff contender

Not sure they have even sent this message as the last time the Jays were in playoffs was getting on for twenty years ago. Plenty has changed since the time when the internet was just a gleam in Al Gore's eye

Ron - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#242932) #

Ron, putting aside the fact that you post the same thing over and over again (that the Jays must spend like the Leafs or Rangers of old) it seems to me that acquiring Prince Fielder isn't going solve what is wrong with this team. 

This team should hit enough but has some major holes in the pitching staff.  They are 11th in ERA in the AL and have one starter right now who can be counted on - Romero.  The rotation in terms of effectiveness is Romero, Perez, Alvarez, Cecil and Morrow.  Drabek is strugging.  That doesn't look like a winning rotation to me.  The bullpen is a mess.

Instead of trying to win now, I'd rather the Jays tank the rest of the season to improve their draft pick.  Then focus on developing a rotation that can challenge Tampa, BOS and NYY.  This will likely come in a few years internally, but a shrewd pickup of a potential starter and a few good arms for the Bullpen is more in line with what is needed than a big free agent splash.

Why can't the Jays make a big free agent splash or 2 and pick up a starter and few bullpen guys through trades? I'm not an expert on the Leafs or Rangers, but I'm pretty sure those teams weren't going out and signing 27 year old or younger impact free agents. 

The only MLB free agent that's going to cost a lot of money that I've advocated going after is Fielder. I stand by my off-season wish list: a middle of the order bat, a number 1 or 2 starting pitcher, and 2 back end bullpen pitchers. I agree the Jays only have 1 starting pitcher they can count on which is the same number as a team that is going to win close to a 100 games this season because they're so strong in all the other areas.



 



Dewey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#242933) #
The current “ballpark experience” is not something that all members of the Jays’ fan-base enjoys.   And that’s *after* you’ve paid a lot of money simply to get into the park with a ticket.  I don’t know if Jays management doesn’t really appreciate this; or if they are merely trying to cultivate a ‘younger’ demographic, and assume that that means lots of noise and non-stop distraction for all.  (And they are thereby changing the nature of what it *means*  to “go to a ballgame”:   younger fans now *expect* lots of manufactured noise and mindless distractions.  They’re going to an “event” or an “experience” at which, almost coincidentally, a baseball game is being played.)  

 I’m not convinced  that Jays’ management is assessing their ‘core demographic’ correctly.  (How old, I wonder,  are the people who are making the decisions about who the Jay’s primary target audience is,  and what they ‘want’?)  There are a lot of people still around, far beyond the sainted 18-35 group,  who love and know baseball, who do have sufficient disposable income to attend, and who most certainly don’t go to the park to be assailed by manufactured noise and truly stupid distractions marketed as ‘entertainment’.   Most of them now just stay away.  

BTW, do Jays’ attendance figures include all season-ticket-subscribers, as they used to?   Or do they reflect actual attendance?    I’d think there are far more than 22,800 fans in the GTA who would like to attend a Jays game, but who don’t, or can’t, for all sort of good reasons, some of which *could* be fixed by a determined Jays management.  I have no confidence that they will be do that, however.
baagcur - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#242934) #
BTW when is the discussion of Lawrie as ROY going to start
soupman - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#242936) #
Dewey,

I hear this all the time from all sorts of people. I have seasons passes and almost everyone that I take to a game complains about the noise and the nonsense. It really disrupts the attention from the game. I understand having some stuff for kids, but the music they play doesn't pump anyone up, imo. It's so constant that there is no dynamic level to the game. It's just 100% loud all the time.

92-93 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#242939) #

(Also please don't bite our heads off that the team should be spending $157,283,947.93 a year already 92-93.)

Yes, how unreasonable of me to expect at least a MLB average payroll (which would be under 100m, so quit the hyperbole) while the US dollar drops and our ticket prices rise. At least over the last 2 months some of you have come to realize that spending money on FAs isn't the worst idea in the history of civilization. It's been amusing to watch the general consensus come around.

electric carrot - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#242940) #
I'm with Dewey on going to games at Roger's Centre but I might come to the opposite conclusion.  I personally will never go to another game at Roger's Centre.  Why go to game to torture yourself?  And it's too late for Roger's to change.  It's over.  It's like a bad girlfriend that you never want to see again no matter how much they say they've changed. So, if people need the distraction, go ahead old-girlfriend-who-I-don't-care-about-anymore, do whatever it takes to get new boyfriends.



Landomar - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#242941) #

For September callups, I expect to see something like McGowan, a reliever (Korecky or maybe try Mills there), Cooper, Mastroianni, and perhaps a middle infielder (a guy like Woodward or Diaz could sit on the bench for emergency depth).

Other than working in McGowan, I don't think we'll see any big changes to our lineup or rotation.  Hopefully we are able to finish the season on a positive note, and end up above .500.  It's not a huge deal, but I do think that a strong finish would be more fun to watch than losing a bunch of games, and I'm not concerned about whether our first round pick next season is draft compensation protected or not.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#242942) #

The players on the field should be trying to win at all costs at all times, no change there. The front office, well, they're already zeroed in on 2012, so these two things are entirely unrelated though not mutually exclusive. The only person caught in the middle  is the managerial staff, which should be trying to execute the former while potentially under different direction from the latter. In which case, if you value your job, you go with the latter.

Incidentally, I suspect the "target audiience" demographic for virtually every MLB club is the massive number of self-declared fans who don't really know much about the team. These are NOT me, the guys I jaw with at work, or most potential Ranger ticket-buyers (much less maniacal nutjobs like Friend of Da Box Jamey Newberg!). Test the waters around here beyond Hamilton, Young and maybe  the much-hyped Ogando and Andrus, and you'd get a LOT of blank stares. The Rangers just yesterday traded a big-arm prospect in Pedro Strop for a former closer in Mike Gonzalez, and I'mabetcha that 98 percent of legitimate Ranger fans couldn't name either one -- whose names were JUST IN THE HEADLINES a day ago!

92-93 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#242944) #

I'm not as high on Cooper as some folk - he's a worse version of Lyle Overbay at best.

Cooper is a year younger than Overbay was when he got to the PCL and he's having a significantly better year there, especially when you consider their plate discipline. The defense might not be there but is it really such a stretch to think that Cooper can develop into every bit the hitter Lyle Overbay is?

Greg - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#242945) #

I think Lawrie's problem in regards to the Rookie of the Year is that

A) he was called up too late

B) if it was to go to a late-call up it would probably be Desmond Jennings who is hitting just as well as Lawrie and has 12 games on Lawrie. 

vw_fan17 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#242946) #
with the team still in control of the Romero's, Lawrie's, Rasmi, Snider's/Thames' of the world

Well, since we debated the plural of Rasmus.. Shouldn't that sentence read: with the team still in control of the Romeros, Lawries, Rasmi, Sniders/Thames' of the world??

Also - while signing Fielder would improve the offense, perhaps we have to consider that signing Sabathia would improve our starting pitching, AND hurt the Yankees.. He's at WAR 5.5 right now (BBREF) - imagine adding 5 wins to our roster and REMOVING 5 from the Yanks? And, once we've signed CC, who is aquainted with the Prince.. perhaps we can get a bit of a discount on that signing..

This would be one of the few times you can help yourself AND hurt your opponent at the same time. Or, just push the Yankees' payroll into the stratosphere and get a few $$ back via the additional luxury tax :-D
John Northey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#242949) #
Last winter it would've been a waste to chase free agents as the Jays were clearly in rebuild mode with 3 teams clearly better than them in the division with no more than 2 making the playoffs.

Now it looks possible for up to 3 teams from this division to make the playoffs in 2012 or 2013. Now we have a much clearer vision on the weaknesses (Lind, second base if Johnson doesn't return, need for another starter, need for a closer) and strengths of this team (Escobar for real, Lawrie is ready, Bautista is for real, Romero is a solid #1 or at worst #2 starter). Now we have some premium free agents (or virtual free agents) available in Fielder/Pujols/Darvish/Papelbon who fill those obvious holes on the team.

Who would you have had the Jays sign last winter? Top contracts went to Crawford, Werth, Cliff Lee, and Beltre ($80+ million each) while other big ones were Jeter, Dunn, Victor Martinez ($50 mil+ each). Konerko, Soriano, Lilly, Jorge de la Rosa, and Rivera each got $30 mil+ deals. How did those guys do?

Crawford: 84 OPS+ (OF)
Werth: 98 OPS+ (OF)
Cliff Lee: 150 ERA+ (starter)
Beltre: 114 OPS+ (3B)
Jeter: 97 OPS+ (SS)
Dunn: 58 OPS+ (DH/1B/RF)
Victor Martinez: 125 OPS+ (DH/26 G at catcher)

So, 1 total flop (Dunn), 1 bad (Crawford), 2 not good (Werth & Jeter), 1 decent (Beltre), 1 very good (Martinez, but if limited to DH not as good) and 1 I'd trade for in Lee (who took a discount to go to Philly).

Last winter, if the Jays did what many here wanted, we'd have Crawford, Lee, Beltre and Dunn on the roster with Lawrie still in Milwaukee and Vernon Wells in CF (as most saw it as a pure salary dump, which it was for all intents and purposes). An improvement in the rotation, a nightmare in LF that we couldn't get rid of, a bigger nightmare at DH (Dunn), a solid 3B but without the amazing promise of Lawrie plus Marcum in the rotation still. Nice rotation (Lee, Marcum, Romero at the top) but no shot at chasing down a Fielder or Darvish as the budget would be topped out for awhile I suspect. The Jays would be a lot more expensive and not much better in 2011 (certainly not playoff bound) most likely and would be locked into a JP/Ash cycle of high payrolls and 85 wins for another 5 years.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#242950) #
I don't see AA spending on FAs for the sake of spending. He'll likely target someone who his scouts like a lot and who still has several prime years ahead of him. Whether that is Fielder, Darvish, Wilson, or none of the above, I have no idea.
hypobole - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#242951) #

No matter how hard the Jays try this final month, it will be surprising if they can finish over .500. 15 of the last 25 vs NY/Bos/TB, The remaining Oriole games are the only 3  vs a team with a record worse  than ours..

Henn should be called up, just so we have another lefty in the pen, although Mills can also be tried there or Perez removed from starting. Lots of righties to choose from. Do not want to see Drabek. The way he's pitching now, he has the ability to make Tallets effort the other night seem like a lockdown  in comparison.

Like to see Cooper, although as has been pointed out, getting him AB's will be next to impossible without benching Lind or EE. Same with Loewen, unless Rasmus injury lingers and the Jays are willing to give up defense to play Adam in  CF.

uglyone - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#242954) #
Cooper is a year younger than Overbay was when he got to the PCL and he's having a significantly better year there, especially when you consider their plate discipline. The defense might not be there but is it really such a stretch to think that Cooper can develop into every bit the hitter Lyle Overbay is?

IMO, this year Cooper has pretty much closed the gap that opened in AA-ball between him and his fellow 2008 1st round 1B Smoak, Wallace, and Alonso.
Anders - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#242957) #
David Cooper has had one good year in the last 3, in a hitters league, and it is entirely BABIP dependent - he's hitting .386 on balls in play. He doesn't hit for power, and he isn't a good defender.

Overbay had a .950 OPS in 900 AA at bats, and a .920 OPS in 725 AAA at bats. Cooper has walked about as much and hit for as much power as Overbay did, but Overbay's track record was better/longer. I'll believe it when I see it.

China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#242958) #
It's a small sample size, but Kelly Johnson has an OPS of 1.206 since he joined the Jays.  It's possible that this was a great change-of-scenery trade, and it's possible that Johnson has remembered how he did things last year.  Even if he's a Type A, anyone think Anthopoulos should forego the draft picks and sign him to a multi-year deal?  If 2B can be converted from a sinkhole to an above-average position, how dramatically does this improve the Jays and is it worth the lost picks?
hypobole - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#242959) #

CF - Should Kevin Towers sign Aaron Hill and his .993 OPS with the Dbacks to a multi-year deal?

Anyway I'm sure whatever AA does will be well thought out.  Personally, i believe he'll be offered arb. If he accepts, we have a 2nd baseman, if not we''ll have a pick or picks. But if AA truly believes in him, anything is possible.

China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#242960) #

Hypobole, the AL East is not quite the same as the NL West, so the comparison with Hill is not entirely valid.   In any event, for what Arizona needs, Hill might indeed fill the bill. This may have been a win-win trade for both teams -- a classic change-of-scenery deal.

But the reality is that the Jays have only a few weeks to evaluate Johnson, so it's inevitable that he'll have to be assessed on a relatively small sample size, with all the perils that that entails. I'm just saying that the sample looks pretty favorable so far.

As for arbitration -- I've never known Anthopoulos to simply throw up his hands and wait for someone else to determine the shape of his team.  If AA really wants someone, he's not likely to sit back passively and wait for fate to decide.

greenfrog - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#242961) #
Just curious: how many other teams would likely get involved in the bidding for Johnson this off-season? As usual, the market will determine the contract he gets. Hard to see him passing up the chance to become a FA.
Magpie - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#242962) #
But.... but... but I don't want Prince Fielder. I really don't.

Pitchers needed first. Lots of them. Until they arrive, 2012 is not the year. Nor 2013, in all likelihood.
Jonny German - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#242964) #
"As for arbitration -- I've never known Anthopoulos to simply throw up his hands and wait for someone else to determine the shape of his team. "

Overstated. Jason Frasor is an obvious counterpoint.
Jonny German - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#242965) #
Magpie, which rotation do you prefer for 2012?

a)
CC Sabathia
Ivan Nova
Bartolo Colon
Freddy Garcia
Phil Hughes
A.J. Burnett

b)
Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
Brett Cecil
Henderson Alvarez
Dustin McGowan
Yu Darvish
Magpie - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#242967) #
For 2012? I'll still take Option a). It ain't no great shakes either, I'll admit. Of course those guys have the best bullpen and the best offense in the majors.
Landomar - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#242968) #

I've always liked Kelly Johnson, and I think he's awesome.  I'd be happy to see us extend him for 3 years and $18 million or so, but I guess we'll have to see what the market for him is like.

A Johnson-Escobar combo up the middle for the next few years would be exciting for me, as I really like both of those guys, and think they are good bets to be top 10 players at their positions during 2012-2014.  If we could lock into those two, along with Lawrie, and Arencibia/d'Arnaud, then that's a great foundation in the infield.  We'd only need to worry about first base (as Lind is ok, but not an above average regular at 1B, and we might be able to upgrade that spot).

China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#242969) #

....Jason Frasor is an obvious counterpoint....

Frasor is not analagous at all.  He was one of seven pitchers in the bullpen, pitching perhaps two or three innings  a week, and therefore not nearly as significant as an infielder who appears in every game.  Keeping him on the roster for $3-million was a fairly minor move.  And we all knew that Anthopoulos was trying to trade him this year, and had been trying to trade him since the summer of 2010, and finally did succeed in trading him in the summer of 2011.  So his presence on the team -- as a fungible, interchangeable reliever -- did not exactly shape the future of the team.  Whereas Johnson, in my view, could have a very big impact on the future of the Jays, especially if he converts a sinkhole position into a position of strength for the Jays.  His presence in 2012 could be one of the biggest lineup upgrades from 2011 (if he continues to hit as he has).  So my point remains:  Anthopoulos is unlikely to shrug his shoulders and passively await arbitration to determine 2B for the Jays in 2012.

Jonny German - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#242970) #
Frasor is not analagous at all.

Okay. Miguel Olivo then.

So my point remains: Anthopoulos is unlikely to shrug his shoulders and passively await arbitration to determine 2B for the Jays in 2012.

Your point remains overstated. Who in their right mind thinks that Anthopolous will shrug his shoulders? If he wants Kelly Johnson, of course he will try to sign him to a contract. And if he doesn't want him he will still offer him arbitration, because he values draft picks highly enough to risk retaining a player he doesn't want. Like Miguel Olivo. Or Jason Frasor.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#242972) #
The view that this club is a long way from competing emerges from 2011 runs scored/allowed and wins totals (which are half decent, but quite a ways from competition). It is not the ideal way of looking at it. A number of personnel decisions (the starts given to Reyes and Drabek, the at-bats given to Patterson and Nix) arose from management's view that this was a building year. You have to look at the player personnel likely to fill each role in 2012 and start from there.

I have mellowed in my view about the time needed for Hechavarria. He never looked like the weakest hitting shortstop (the Dal Maxvills and Mark Belangers of the world), and since he arrived in Las Vegas, he has displayed better strike zone judgment and hit many more line drives (these two things may be correlated). He might be ready after an AFL stint and a couple of months in the minors in 2012. It sure would offer a boost to the pitching staff if he was.
China fan - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#242973) #

....If he wants Kelly Johnson, of course he will try to sign him to a contract....

Thank you for making my point.  In your haste to quibble, you didn't realize that we share the same viewpoint.  It was the original poster, not I, who suggested that AA might not offer a contract to Johnson.

Here, in fact, is what I was reacting to:

....Personally, i believe he'll be offered arb. If he accepts, we have a 2nd baseman, if not we''ll have a pick or picks....

This comment predicted (as far as I can see) that Anthopoulos would not offer a contract to Johnson but would simply offer him arb and nothing else.  So, Jonny, you and I both disagree with this statement.  No need to attack me -- you could have quibbled with his comment, rather than mine.

bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#242974) #
Mike,

Hech has really improved on the curveballs/sliders out of the zone.

He still has a way to go on the high hard stuff.

 

bball12 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#242975) #
Not really big on Johnson. A tad bit erratic for me.

I don't think AA should "chase him" to make a deal.





Glevin - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#242977) #
"Not really big on Johnson. A tad bit erratic for me."

Yes, he is but almost every hitter in baseball goes hot and cold. No, Johnson is not Cano or Pedroia, but he can be an above-average 2Bman for a few years and there is a lot of value in that.

The other factor in the Jays' attendance is the Dome itself (excuse me, Rogers' Centre). Seattle's attendance is higher than one would expect partly because their stadium is consistently ranked as one of the nicest. The Dome is one of the five worst stadiums in baseball. It really doesn't have much of a baseball atmosphere and it's incredibly ugly. I am not advocating building another stadium by any means, but I wish Toronto had waited a few more years when the retro stadiums started to come out.
Bid - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#242978) #

I think management, the players and the fans all benefit from everybody trying to win evey game...more than is lost through not banking a first draft choice. I admit I can't quantify the draft choice part.

The noise is certainly dreadful at RC...I agree with all you all said. We went to a Thursday afternoon game at Wrigley in June, and the only time I couldn't hear the old guy next to this old guy was when 46,000 acknowledged Ramirez hitting one out--although it was never deserted-Loblaws quiet the way the RC gets. Wrigley buzzes constantly pretty much uninterupted by wheeps and dubious rock; and the approving roar which often accompanies popfilies here--I am not immune...sometimes it's the crowd's best effort. Anyway, in the back half of the first deck at Wrigley one peers out from under a 10 foot deep brow of containers--private/press boxes I guess, hanging from the second deck. Further back than we were it must have been snow goggles.

I recall Fenway from relatively the same spot had some of the same shut-in feeling. I really miss Tiger Stadium.

So: Win every game we can...give the young position players as many innings as possible...find most of next year's bullpen...and for the next few days sample the work of Don Wakamatsu and his coaches in NYC.

Alex Obal - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#242979) #

The plural of Rasmus is Rasmi?

Rasmussen, no?

MatO - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#242980) #
David Cooper has had one good year in the last 3, in a hitters league, and it is entirely BABIP dependent - he's hitting .386 on balls in play. He doesn't hit for power, and he isn't a good defender.

Overbay had a .950 OPS in 900 AA at bats, and a .920 OPS in 725 AAA at bats. Cooper has walked about as much and hit for as much power as Overbay did, but Overbay's track record was better/longer. I'll believe it when I see it.

Actually, Cooper has been on a tear since July of last year.  Overbay's been a year older at those levels than Cooper.  Cooper has a walk rate 50% higher than Overbay did in AAA and a strike out out rate half that of Overbay.  Cooper more doubles and Overbay more HR's.  Overbay had a BABIP of .383 in his big year in AAA.

John Northey - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#242982) #
I detest the music blaring and stuff but if you look at MLB you can see it has helped for all teams.

Last place team in attendance in 2011: Florida Marlins 18,206 per game

Rank that would've been in...
2001: 27 of 30
1991: 24 of 26
1981: 15 of 26
1971: 10 of 24
1961: 4 of 18
1951: 3 of 16 (last was 3,815 in St Louis for the Browns)
1941: #1 of 16 - tops that year was Brooklyn at 15,379 despite Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak and Ted Williams 406 average
1931: #1 of 16 - 14,109 the tops for the Cubs
1921: #1 of 16 - 15,778 for Yankees in probably Ruth's best year
1911: #1 of 16 - 9,000 for the NY Giants was tops
1901: #1 of 16 - 5,278 for the St Louis Cardinals was tops

The point here is that pre-1980 the worst of today would've been a top team for attendance. The non-stop racket started around that time. It seems the casual fan does indeed love it. Sigh.
JB21 - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#242983) #
Comparing Wrigley to the Rogers Centre is like ... well ... c'mon man!

I've been to 20+ parks and 19 of the current 30 and honestly I really enjoy going to the Rogers Centre for an open domed night game mid summer. It's no Wrigley/Fenway, or PNC/Safeco but it's certainly no Trop/Coliseum.
hypobole - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#242984) #

CF - Why do I feel KJ will be offered arb instead of a multi-year deal? Well there is the fact one of our middle infielders is already signed to a multi-year, deal and we have another on a major league contract in Vegas with an MLB ready glove, even if not a bat.

There were also signs this past offseason of AA's MO. Some argued vociferously John Buck would be resigned rather than being allowed to walk, and the same when Miguel Olivo was acquired. We all know what happened in both instances.

Like I said, anything is possible, but I feel a multi-year deal between AA and KJ is an unlikely scenario.

Mylegacy - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#242985) #
Read my lips - by July (most likely much sooner) Escobar (he of the daily diminishing range and daily decreasing speed) will be playing second and Hechavarria will be our everyday SS. KJ will be offered arbitration and get us a supplemental first round pick. We could quite likely sign Hill for a year. I've no objection to signing KJ for a year - however - he'll want more. The ONLY way we give him more than one year is IF he agrees to be a super-sub the SPLIT SECOND HECH IS READY.

His last 10 games in AA Hech was.304, .333, .419, 752. His first 20 games in AAA he is .388, .435, .518, .952 - That is DOMINANCE for 30 games now - not a hot game, a hot week but a solid month + of HEAT.

Thames, Lawrie, Hech, Gose and d'Arnaud ARE THE GUTS of the future position players. All of those in their way are only there till THE SPLIT SECOND these guys smash the doors down. Thames and Lawrie already have.

hypobole - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#242986) #

.How good has Lawrie's debut been? I found this on ESPN

 "Brett Lawrie had two more extra-base hits Thursday (2B, HR) to give him 17 in his first 26 career games. Those 17 extra-base hits lead the majors since he debuted on August 5.

FROM ELIAS Lawrie's 17 extra-base hits are tied for the most through a player's first career 26 games since 1940. He's just the third player 21 or younger since 1940 to have 17 extra-base hits through his first 26 career games (Jeff Francoeur,Albert Pujols the others).

I only hope Brett is more Pujols than Francoeur

smcs - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#242987) #
(he of the daily diminishing range and daily decreasing speed)

What is that based on?
Anders - Thursday, September 01 2011 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#242988) #
There are a bunch of reasons to be optimistic about the team next year, I think. The hitters are 25, 27, 29, 28, 21, 24, 24, 30 (C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-RF-CF) and the starters at the moment are 26, 26, 24, 21 (Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez.) If the team signed Prince Fielder, the difference in production at first and third from this year to next year could be 8 wins, and that's not even counting the upgrade to Rasmus from Davis or potentially to Johnson from Hill.

Also, this isn't an especially good offensive team. They're an average offensive team that has Jose Bautista. There are lots of easy ways to upgrade - the team has gotten marginal to bad production from 1B, 2B, C, LF, CF and 3B other than Lawrie.

Mylegacy - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#242990) #
smcs

Based on my sixty odd years of watching baseball.

Although, in the spirit of full disclosure my view of a few games over that time was slightly impaired - apparently even 18 year old single malt has side effects, who'd a thunk it...

uglyone - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#242995) #
KJ is and always was the best available option for 2B for next year.

if we don't re-sign him, any other option would be a downgrade.
92-93 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:54 AM EDT (#242996) #
Using a prospect's BABIP to diminish him while continuously ignoring his 62:41 BB:K ratio is very puzzling.
AWeb - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#242997) #

The point here is that pre-1980 the worst of today would've been a top team for attendance. The non-stop racket started around that time. It seems the casual fan does indeed love it. Sigh.

Also around that time local cable coverage started showing every game, ESPN/TSN and then the internet allowed people to see every highlight, and of course there are twice as many people living in cities now (not uniformly, of course).  Despite complaints, it has only gotten easier to go to most stadiums over time as well. I think this might be a correlation != causation for attendance rising. The constant promotions/noise are there because there are people who have a job description along the lines of "sell every moment of dead time to a sponsor". If you propose doing nothing, not playing music, not sponsoring every moment of dead time, you fail at your job. But attendance benefits? I remain skeptical. Small kids with a low attention span aren't exactly a large part of any crowd in pro sports, and never have been.

I'm not sure if pro soccer in Europe does the same thing (play constant music, noise), and it seems unlikely they would be able to given the continuous game action. But I believe the leagues there have also exploded attendance-wise during the last 30-40 years, and massively expanded in the number of teams as well.

John Northey - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#242998) #
Good points AWeb. However, it is funny how we hear about the golden age of the 50's or 20's yet both era's, even in NY where the population was sky-high even then and in an era when public transit was everywhere (private companies would run streetcars in the early part of the century) and tickets were much less after factoring in inflation they still had what today would be viewed as horribly low attendance.

For example, the 3 NY teams COMBINED had 55,029 per game in 1951 (Mays, Mantle, Snider) (taking 3 games and counting as one). The Yankees today get 44,933 while the Mets get 29,528 - if there was a third team it is safe to say they'd get 20-30k a game. The Yankees peaked at 53,070 in 2008.

Go to 1921 and you get a combined 35,962 which the Mets did better than alone each year from 2006-2009.
rpriske - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#242999) #

Off-season has three priorities, in my opinion.

 

1. Completely rebuild the bullpen. I can't see a good reason to have more than 3 or 4 from this year's crop in the mix to start 2012.

2. Second base needs to be stabalized. I woudl sign Johnson to a two year deal for reasonable money if he will take it. If not, AA has to get creative because there isn't much else out there. Sign a SS maybe...

3. THEN, and only then, worry about grabbing a new big bat... a Fielder, if you will.

AWeb - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#243000) #

I'm curious if anyone knows about season tickets - specifically, when did these become available and/or common. I wonder if the "think I'll go see a game" sales from the 50s are actually closer to the same thing today, except there weren't 10-20K presold tickets every game? Of course, it's also much easier to go to a game last minute these days too, since most can check the schedule within 30 seconds. And games are at night, which ties into making season tickets a big thing, and also would raise attendance a great deal, I would think.

Not that season tickets don't count, of course, but their existence certainly helps keep sales high, they are a great marketing/sales success story. The Yankees probably had 2 million tickets sold before anyone even tried to buy a single game ticket. I think teams have made the transition from planning the games around the players (daytime is better, doubleheaders probably are too, I'd rather practice less and have more off days) to planning them around the fans (game every day, same time, after work), and it's worked really well.

Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#243002) #

The plural of Rasmus is Rasmi?

Rasmussen, no?

This is clever and admirable.
John Northey - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#243003) #
No question 2012's pen will look very little like 2011's. I found opening day lineup at The Score.

To start 2011 we had...
Janssen, Purcey, Villanueva, Rzepczynski, Camp, Frasor, Rauch. Carlson, Dotel, and Francisco started on the DL.

For 2012 we probably will have...
Returning: Janssen, Villanueva - maybe Camp & Carlson (DL), slim shot at Francisco. So 2-4 of the 7 who started last year with 2 DL'ed having a shot.
Guys who are here now: Litsch,

My bet is on Janssen & Villanueva being here and that is it. Carlson will be in AAA or DL to start while Camp & Francisco are allowed to leave via free agency.

Looking at the rotation we see 2011 started with...
Romero, Drabek, Cecil, Reyes, Litsch (McGowan & Morrow DL'ed).
2012: Romero, Cecil return, Morrow back from DL (obviously), maybe McGowan back too. Add in new guys Alvarez and maybe Perez. That gives us 2 returns, maybe 2 returns from DL plus 1 slot for a kid (Alvarez). Fairly stable actually if you factor in DL'ers as guys who should've been in the rotation.

Lineup?
CA: JPA, Molina - 2012: JPA, Jeroloman
1B: Lind - 2012: same
2B: Hill - 2012: Johnson tentatively
3B: Encarnacion - 2012: Lawrie
SS: Escobar - 2012: same
LF: Snider - 2012: Thames (Snider if Thames flops)
CF: Davis - 2012: Rasmus
RF: Bautista - 2012: same
DH: Rivera - 2012: Encarnacion
Bench: McCoy, McDonald, Nix - 2012: McCoy, McDonald (if AA and McDonald are to be taken at their word), Davis
DL: Patterson & Podsednik (both gone - phew)

Changes at slots where change was desperately needed (2B/3B/CF/DH) while few wastes of space will return.
greenfrog - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#243006) #
I think the bullpen is the last part of a championship team that needs to be assembled. Relievers are to some extent fungible and their performance (and health) tends to vary from one year to the next. Elite positional players and starting pitchers are harder to find, and provide more overall value. It doesn't mean that you don't look for opportunities to add a Mike Adams or develop a David Robertson. But there isn't much point in spending tens of millions on a BJ Ryan or a K-Rod if the rest of your team isn't good enough to win.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#243007) #
So, what is a reasonable projection for Lawrie in 2012?  You probably wouldn't want to pay too much attention to his pre-2011 numbers because he pretty clearly has added quite a bit of power.  If you pop his Las Vegas numbers into a MLE generator, you get .281/.327/.505 over 299 at-bats.  If you add in his major league work,  you get .295/.344/.552 for a 21 year old.  The issues of regression and age-related improvement probably work out to pretty close to a wash.  While I was at it, I checked the MLEs for JPA and Thames.  JPA's MLE for his 2 years in Las Vegas amounts to .214/.254/.405.  Thames' amounts to .280/.335/.470.  Both are very close to their major league lines. 

For fun, I did a lineup projection using major league career numbers for JPA, Lind, Johnson, Escobar, Thames, Rasmus and Encarnacion.   I used Bautista's 2009-11 averages (.270/.395/.572) and Lawrie's MLE plus major league work for 2012 of .295/.344/.552.  The generator gave me 5.3 runs/game.  That figure sounds great, but you do have to realize that a certain number of at-bats will be taken by subs. 

Beyonder - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#243008) #

To improve this team's offence, the low hanging fruit is finding a fix at first base.   While Lind has arguably surprised with his ability to field the position semi-competently, he remains below average at first, and batting-wise his season is rapidly beginning to resemble his season from last year.  To me, David Cooper's 2011 season is every bit as impressive as JPA's MVP season last year (which earned JPA a full year audition).  While we all would have liked to see more power from Cooper, he's leading the league with 50 doubles.  That's an awful lot of very good contact.  We could do worse than give him a window of 300 at bats next year to see what he can do.  I have no idea what Lind would fetch in a trade, but I expect it would be much more than Cooper.   

 

 

bpoz - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#243009) #
Thanks John N. Your Opening day lineup is a nice data source.

Not important, but I wonder if the 2011 RPs listed Janssen 1st & Rauch last was coincidence because Janssen was to be the odd man out so 7th guy (options) & Rauch was #1 Closer.

I suppose AA had a plan for the 2011 season, partly that development was a major factor & at the expense of winning. I base this opinion of mine on Drabek & Reyes being given the #4 & 5 rotation spots, of course LV & options were the reason IMO.

I now ask myself & anyone else...Will 2012 be a win as MANY games as possible (hopefully 90+) philosophy. If AA does not say that clearly then his moves may give clues.

Jerry Hawarth keeps saying 2013 is the time table for the extra WC with re alignment also possibly happening. This is not his opinion, but his asking around conclusion.

A few Bauxites have stated... one day AA will have to make the tough, gutsy move or moves needed to make the team really great.

I hope I have been clear rather than vague stating my last 2 hypothesis.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#243010) #
For his career, Lind's slash line is .268/.318/.468.  The MLE calculator gives me .295/.358/.427 for Cooper's 2011 season in Las Vegas, but relying on that season alone for a 24 year old is probably dangerous, as it did represent a significant leap forward. 
Beyonder - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#243011) #

I think that's right, but the upside (of playing Cooper) is significant, and the spread between Cooper's performance and Lind's is unlikely to be huge.  If it turns out to be a mistake, maybe we attempt to convert Snider to 1B.  Lord knows at this stage, he's never going to get at bats trying to crack our outfield.  

 

Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#243013) #
I hope that's not true. Nothing against Thames, but he shouldn't be allowed to block Snider.
Jonny German - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#243014) #
No need to fight. Snider is a better defender, if he remembers how to hit then Thames can DH.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#243016) #
When 2012 opens,  Snider is likely to be in Las Vegas (if he is in the organization), in light of his injury/performance issues in 2011.  The odds are pretty good that he will get a chance due to injury on the major league club at some point in the season.  He is still young.  If 2012 were perceived to be a development year, he might open the season in the major league lineup, but everything that the club has done over the last year has been pointing to a more directed effort to win in 2012.



Beyonder - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#243017) #

I'm with you, but I think it has already been decided.  AA basically said Travis and Thames were performing at a very similar level when Travis was last sent down, and they opted to go with Thames.  Presumably AA is higher on Thames's potential than Snider's.  Unless Thames really falters or Jose gets hurt, I don't see a window of at bats opening up for Snider next year.  Short of hitting 40 home runs in Vegas, there is nothing he can do down there to make a case for a full-time job.   For whatever reason, the bloom has fallen off the rose with Snider, and he's now playing in a park where any numbers you put are marked with an asterisk.   The worst part of all of this is that his trade value is at an all-time low.

As great as AA has been in dealing with veteran players, I think his record this year in dealing with prospects has been mixed.  His decision to hand the catching job to JPA was the right one, and I think the lumps we have taken with JPA this year will pay off over many years to come.  I wish he's taken a similar tack with Snider.  Snider paid his dues over three years with the big club, accepted his demotions with class, put up solid numbers at the major league level last year, re-worked his swing at the club's insistence (by AA's account succesfully), and yet still got sent down in favour of a Johnny-come-lately who was playing marginally better over a very short window.

We would have had many years to find out whetehr Thames could become a solid contributor.  Our window of opportunity to find out about Snider is rapidly closing.

Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#243018) #
Presumably AA is higher on Thames's potential than Snider's.  Unless Thames really falters or Jose gets hurt, I don't see a window of at bats opening up for Snider next year.  Short of hitting 40 home runs in Vegas, there is nothing he can do down there to make a case for a full-time job.   For whatever reason, the bloom has fallen off the rose with Snider

I would be surprised and disappointed if this turned out to be the case.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#243019) #
I am more optimistic about Snider's chances of getting major league at-bats, as the roster now sits.  An injury to a corner outfielder, a first baseman or DH could make room for him.  This probably will change before 2012 opens.
Jonny German - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#243020) #
I think a lot of the perceived roster crunch comes from the idea that EE should be the full time DH. And while I think he's a great guy to have around and picking up his $3.5M option is a no-brainer, I see him as the DH against lefties and the scary bat off the bench. Which means I see lots of DH playing time available should Snider and Thames both play to their considerable potential.

This line of thinking presumes that Adam Lind either goes back to 2009 form or is replaced by Fielder. If neither of these unlikely scenarios unfold, then EE becomes the best first baseman on the roster and there's even more DH time available.
Mylegacy - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#243021) #
The LF tango is complicated by Gose. The SPLIT SECOND Gose forces Rasmus off CF - and he WILL - then Rasmus/Thames/Snider fight it out for LF.

At this point of those three - I'd prefer Thames. BUT - I've an open mind about it.

China fan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#243022) #

.....We would have had many years to find out whether Thames could become a solid contributor. Our window of opportunity to find out about Snider is rapidly closing....

I don't see how that's true.  Snider has another option year left.  The Jays don't need to make a decision about him until sometime in 2013.  They can let him start in Las Vegas next season, bring him up to the majors if he plays well, and send him back down if he still needs more development.  Then, if he still seems to be on the verge of being a solid contributor, they can give him the 2013 spring training and a few weeks of the 2013 regular season to see if he's ready for the bigs.  There's still lots of time to let him develop.

The other point is that the decision on Thames is not based on guesswork about the future -- the Jays can simply assess the present.  With a .796 OPS in nearly 300 plate appearances, Thames is a useful player today.  His numbers in 300 PAs are better than ANY of the OPS numbers that Snider produced in similar 300-PA stretches in 2009 and 2010, and of course better than Snider produced in 200 PAs this year.   So Thames won the battle.  He's contributing enough now to warrant being on the roster -- regardless of whether he's better than Snider in the long run.  If Snider is better by 2013, that's great -- and Thames can slide over to DH if he's still hitting well.

Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#243024) #
I ran d'Arnaud's 2011 through the minor league equivalency generator.  The #s were .266/.304/.433.  As 2011 was easily his best minor league season, and catchers generally don't develop as well offensively as other players, you would probably want to regress that significantly.  d'Arnaud's edge on JPA is probably more defensive than offensive at this stage.

Lylemcr - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#243025) #
Toronto is the 4th biggest market in USCanada.  (Only behind NY, LA and Chicago, which all have multiple teams)  Toronto also has the rest of Canada supporting it.  They should have better attendance
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#243026) #
A.A. Is in Japan watching Yu Darvish pitch as per Primetime Sports broadcast. This looks likes major play for a Starting Pitcher will be a considered move for A.A.
TamRa - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#243027) #
I hope that's not true. Nothing against Thames, but he shouldn't be allowed to block Snider.

Agreed. no one is a bigger Thames fan than me, going back to draft day. But EVERY professional evaluation I've seen of him projects him as "just a guy" while pretty much every evaluation of Snider was "future monster"

Given what we know of Alex's team building ideas, i'd be STUNNED if he rated Thames higher than Snider in terms of, say, the next 4-5 years.

Lylemcr - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#243029) #

Interview with Deck McGuire

http://1bluejaysway.blogspot.com/2011/09/1bjw-interview-deck-mcguire.html

I am very optimistic about him

Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#243030) #
I like Snider, but you do have to constantly re-evaluate.  At the start of the season, any thoughtful observer would have said that Snider has a decent chance to be a star in the league, but that he had a few things to work on.  Magpie articulated these concerns very well.  He still has a chance to be a star, but any thoughtful observer would concede that the possibility is less now than it was at the start of the year.  That doesn't mean that one gives up hope on a 23 year old.

As for Thames, the scouting report was not as you have it.  He had a nice swing and developed significant power in his sophomore year at Pepperdine, and could very well have been a first round draft but for a quadriceps injury which sapped him of his power.  That appears to be much improved.

If you asked me what the key to the change in their positions since draft day, it would be Snider's wrist injury and Thames' recovery from his quadriceps injury.  The vagaries of fate.  I repeat, though, that I like both of them.

BlueJayWay - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#243031) #
I ran d'Arnaud's 2011 through the minor league equivalency generator.  The #s were .266/.304/.433.

Wow, that seems low.  I know your 'equivalencing' up from AA, but he's hitting 313/372/538 this year.  And the Eastern League isn't a super hittery league either, is it?
BlueJayWay - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#243032) #
Toronto is the 4th biggest market in USCanada.  (Only behind NY, LA and Chicago, which all have multiple teams)  Toronto also has the rest of Canada supporting it.  They should have better attendance

I don't see how they should.  They haven't been to the playoffs since 1993.  They've hardly even been particularly close since then.  Given that, the size of the market isn't really relevant.  How many people do you expect to show up?
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#243033) #
We need a Starting Pitcher, at least as good as Romero. ( I would like to acquire Yu Darvish, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez just to watch New York try to cobble together something.). We need a totally revamped Bullpen as what's left isn't good enough. Kelly Johnson is about the best available 2B this offseason, so I doubt A.A. doesn't make at try to sign him. At D.H./1B, I prefer Prince Fielder, he's approximately 3-4 years younger than Bautista and Pujols, possibly healthier than both. Of course, having a protected (1-16) first round pick would help.
dan gordon - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#243038) #
I heard yesterday that since Aug 5th, Lawrie is leading all of major league baseball in extra base hits.  I noticed that he has an interesting little motion in his swing where he moves the bat head toward the pitcher a few inches as the pitcher is delivering the ball, and then whips the bat through the hitting zone.  This means the bat head is travelling farther and allows him to generate more bat speed.  Sort of like what Sheffield used to do when he'd waggle the bat head back and forth toward the pitcher a few times before swinging.  I don't know if Lawrie has been doing this his whole career, but as Mike Green noted, there has been a big increase in his power this year.  I tried to incorporate that movement and whipping action of the bat in my slopitch games and it's a little tough, even in slopitch, to get the timing just right, but man, when you do, the ball just jumps off your bat and you really have a lot more power.  Something to work on in the offseason.

Thames vs Snider is an interesting situation.  I think a lot depends on how well Thames progresses from what he has shown this year.  Looking at just this year's numbers, he isn't walking a lot, so his OBP is not great.  He has some power, and the 20 doubles are nice.  The 9 HR's are decent, but not outstanding for an outfielder.  He doesn't steal bases and he's not a good fielder.  He'll be 25 next year, and he should still be on the upswing in his career, so he probably can improve on those numbers.  Can he be a guy who hits .280-.295 with an OBP of .330-.345 with 35 doubles and 25 HR's?  If he can do that, he'll be nice piece of the puzzle as a DH, or LF if he can work on those balls hit over his head that he struggles with.

Again, regarding Lawrie, I keep reminding myself of both the jump in his performance this year, and the small number of big league AB's he's had, but it's getting harder and harder to not think he's going to be one of the best players in baseball for a long time, when you factor in his age with what he is doing on the field. 

Ducey - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#243039) #

But EVERY professional evaluation I've seen of him projects him as "just a guy" while pretty much every evaluation of Snider was "future monster"

You mean like Mark "Hard Hitten" Whiten, Glenallen Hill or Josh Phelps?  Reed "Just a guy" Johnson has had a better career than those fellas.

Snider has potential but unless he can get over whatever is ailing him, its nothing more.

Just a guy is hitting .276 .318 .478.  Monster's MLB stats are .248 .307 .423.  They are only a year apart in age .

I have no idea who will be better but right now Thames seems to be able to drive the ball the other way with power (Snider seems to want to pull everything) and has a bit better eye.  This may make him the better player in the longrun.

Jonny German - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#243043) #
"He has some power, and the 20 doubles are nice. The 9 HR's are decent, but not outstanding for an outfielder."

9 homers for a full season from an outfielder are unimpressive. 9 homers over 70 games = 21 over 162 games. And 46 doubles and 9 triples. That'll play.
uglyone - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#243046) #
1. Completely rebuild the bullpen. I can't see a good reason to have more than 3 or 4 from this year's crop in the mix to start 2012.

I'll be the dissenting opinion and make the claim that our bullpen is actually pretty good. I would be more than happy to see 6 of our current 'pen guys back next year - Janssen, Villanueva, Francisco, Litsch, Perez, Carreno....and think there's plenty of potential depth arms in the org in Farquhar, Uviedo, and any of the young SP who could fill in in the BP in a pinch. I take those 6 guys and ideally add one more guy into that mix who can be a legit closer. I'd be more than happy for that to be an expensive guy like Papelbon, but I'd also be intrigued if we sign some SP and a guy like McGowan is shifted to the 'pen to fill that last hole.

2. Second base needs to be stabalized. I woudl sign Johnson to a two year deal for reasonable money if he will take it. If not, AA has to get creative because there isn't much else out there. Sign a SS maybe...

I think it's Johnson or bust on the 2B market. If we don't sign him, then maybe take a flyer on a guy like ODog.

3. THEN, and only then, worry about grabbing a new big bat... a Fielder, if you will.

Don't you think that's kind of backwards? prioritizing relievers ahead of an impact player like Fielder? Get the impact players first, then worry about filling in the gaps behind them, IMO.
dan gordon - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#243048) #
I was looking at 9 HR's in 272 AB's as being about half a season, so I was thinking he's about an 18 HR guy right now, which I don't consider outstanding for a corner outfielder.  It's good, but not outstanding.  I'm not saying he can't play at his current level, I'm thinking about the development of Thames compared to Snider, and if Thames stays where he is, I don't like his chances in that contest.  If he gets to the level I speculated about, I think he's the guy.  Of course, they could eventually go with Thames as DH and Snider in LF, making room for both of them.  Good point about the triples, too, I hadn't looked at those.
Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#243050) #
For second base, why wouldn't you pick out some excellent young 2B-prospect in someone else's organization and swap some A-ball pitching prospects for him? Might have to give up a bit extra to get it done, but that's okay; we're trying to consolidate as much quality as possible into about fifteen players here, and the Jays are dealing from a position of surplus. I'd rather that than settle for the relatively high-salaried Johnson.
uglyone - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#243051) #
It's a small sample size, but Kelly Johnson has an OPS of 1.206 since he joined the Jays. It's possible that this was a great change-of-scenery trade, and it's possible that Johnson has remembered how he did things last year. Even if he's a Type A, anyone think Anthopoulos should forego the draft picks and sign him to a multi-year deal? If 2B can be converted from a sinkhole to an above-average position, how dramatically does this improve the Jays and is it worth the lost picks?

Forget the small sample size, just look at the big sample size....his career sample size.

K.Johnson (29): 3090pa, 10.7bb%, 20.9k%, .261avg, .311babip, .344obp, .345slg, .184iso, .789ops, .345woba, 109wRC+

You're not going to find any available 2B who can match that line.
greenfrog - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#243053) #
Which would seem to be why KJ is headed for free agency.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#243054) #
Dan, it's probably easier to just look at IsoP.  Here's the list of AL left-fielders with more than 250 PAs.  As you can see, Thames ranks 3rd in IsoP.  That really isn't what he needs to work on.

There are two ways that he can get better offensively- strike out somewhat less and hit for a better average, or take a few more walks.  Both would be consistent with his minor league record.
China fan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#243055) #
Uglyone, you've persuaded me that Johnson is the best way for the Jays to upgrade 2B. The question is whether AA agrees. I hope he does, but he might not. What makes it an unpredictable situation is two things: AA's obsession with draft picks, and his obsession with "young controllable" players. Johnson is relatively high-priced (compared to most of the other Jay hitters at this point), and he could deliver one or two draft picks to the Jays if he leaves. To me, that adds up to a definitely possibility that AA will offer him arb and allow him to leave. Personally I'd prefer it if the Jays signed him to a one-year or two-year contract with some team-friendly options -- and I think that's certainly possible. But knowing AA and his biases, it seems equally possible that AA will allow him to leave. I see it as a 50-50 possibility that he leaves. I guess what I'm saying is: I hope Anthopoulos is evolving away from his previous biases and is willing to negotiate a deal, even if it costs him one or two draft picks and a fair chunk of change. If he's willing to bid for a Fielder or Darvish, he should be willing to bid for a 2B who would be a lot cheaper than Fielder or Darvish.
vw_fan17 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#243056) #
For second base, why wouldn't you pick out some excellent young 2B-prospect in someone else's organization and swap some A-ball pitching prospects for him?

I think the problem here is - if you pick up an A-level prospect, you'll have to wait 3-4 years for them to arrive. That'll be the last year of Bautista's contract... If we're going to try to win with Bautista, we need someone who can step in in 2012 or 2013 at the absolute latest.

Are there any can't miss 2B/SS prospects in AAA that are setting the league on fire and ML-ready a la Lawrie? OTOH, we don't want to do another Marcum for Lawrie trade - we like all our ML talent right now and don't want to give up more - we want to GET more ML talent. We have lots of MiL talent to trade in order to get it. And Hech is doing his best to show that he'll be here in 2013 at the latest, maybe 2012. If that's the case, then we need someone for 1-2 years, not a solution 3-4 years from now..
dan gordon - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#243057) #
Mike, that's a rather ugly group of left fielders.  I didn't realize the quality of the offense teams in the AL are getting from their LF's had deteriorated to that extent.  The RF's look somewhat better.  I agree that the OBP is the area where Thames is in need of greater improvement compared to his power.  I don't like having a corner outfielder with an OBP in the low 300's unless he's a bigtime power hitter.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#243058) #
You'll like him even better than that, CF.  There's a typo in uglyone's post.  KJ's career slugging percentage is .445 rather than .345.  When I ran the lineup for the Jays, the simulators would tell me that Johnson would be a #2 hitter in the ideal lineup (with Bautista leading off and Lawrie batting cleanup!), although there really wasn't much difference between the various choices of lineup and the simulators don't ask about speed or handedness. 
Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#243059) #
I think the problem here is - if you pick up an A-level prospect, you'll have to wait 3-4 years for them to arrive.

No, no; we're giving up the A-level prospects, and getting someone roughly major-league-ready. I agree that we wouldn't want to wait around for such a guy to arrive. Sure, it'd be expensive...
uglyone - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#243060) #
I'm not sure what to think of Snider right now, though I'd still lean towards him being good. I don't agree with anyone slagging Thames this year, though. He's been excellent as a rookie, and it's backed up by a very consistent MILB track record, even if he was a bit advanced in age (but not experience) for his levels:


Thames (24, MLB): 5.5bb%, 22.5k%, .276avg, .332babip, .318obp, .202iso, .796ops, .345woba, 117wRC+
Thames (24, AAA): 9.5bb%, 17.0k%, .352avg, .406babip, .423obp, .257iso, 1.033ops, .435woba, 150wRC+
Thames (23, AA): 8.9bb%, 21.1k%, .288avg, .327babip, .370obp, .238iso, .896ops, .393woba, 142wRC+
Thames (22, A+): 9.5bb%, 18.2k%, .313avg, .379babip, .386obp, .174iso, .874ops, .396woba, 151wRC+

He got in a little bit of trouble there for a few weeks when he was swinging at everything but he seems to have readjusted, and his K-numbers are falling back down to his MILB levels now. His batting average and babip are in line with his minor league track record. He's showing very good power (.202iso) which is not a fluke, I don't think.

The only anomaly so far in his MLB numbers is his low BB rate. If he can get that back up to his minor league levels of about 9%, then you're looking at a guy who can push the .350obp mark and the .200iso mark, which is pretty dang good I think.
92-93 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#243061) #

Pitchers needed first. Lots of them. Until they arrive, 2012 is not the year. Nor 2013, in all likelihood.

This is exactly why Jose Bautista needs to be traded.

Jonny German - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#243064) #
For Votto, who has 2 years left on his contract as opposed to Bautista's 4 years. Good plan.
uglyone - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#243065) #
You'll like him even better than that, CF. There's a typo in uglyone's post. KJ's career slugging percentage is .445 rather than .345. When I ran the lineup for the Jays, the simulators would tell me that Johnson would be a #2 hitter in the ideal lineup (with Bautista leading off and Lawrie batting cleanup!), although there really wasn't much difference between the various choices of lineup and the simulators don't ask about speed or handedness.

Ach. stupid typo.

I would love to see the Jays come out tonight with this lineup:

  • 1) SS Escobar
  • 2) 2B Johnosn
  • 3) RF Bautista
  • 4) 3B Lawrie
  • 5) LF Thames
  • 6) DH Encarnacion
  • 7) 1B Lind
  • 8) C Arencibia
  • 9) CF McCoy


  • And when Rasmus is healthy, Lind would/should be in tough to even stay that high in the lineup.
    Thomas - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#243067) #
    92-93 is missing the "j/k" tag or emoticon that usually finds with such posts.

    No, no; we're giving up the A-level prospects, and getting someone roughly major-league-ready. I agree that we wouldn't want to wait around for such a guy to arrive. Sure, it'd be expensive...

    Well, who is this prospect and why is his team trading him? The only guys I can think of who fit that bill who have arrived this year in the bigs are Weeks, Giavotella, Kipnis and Altuve. Some of those teams aren't contending right now, but it'd still be difficult to trade a talented rookie at a position they don't have filled for A-ball prospects. The best 2B at Triple-A I can think of off the top of my head who may be traded is Cord Phelps, who is blocked by Kipnis, but Cleveland is looking to contend right now, as opposed to rebuild, so that may have to be a three-way deal or involved major league talent. Additionally, it's not at all clear that Phelps could duplicate Johnson's 2007-2008 and 2010 numbers in the majors.

    92-93 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#243068) #
    Votto is also 3 years younger than Bautista and took a team-friendly extension in CIN so there's no reason to think he wouldn't extend in his hometown. If anything the fact that you are only locked in for 2 years as opposed to 4 is a benefit for a team that claims it can spend on talent when the time is right. Besides, I wasn't referring specifically to that rumour, but more to the idea that if this team won't be spending on FAs this winter it will be a ridiculous decision to retain Bautista as opposed to cashing in one of the best players in MLB for a significant prospect package.
    Landomar - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#243078) #

    I agree with uglyone that we already have many capable relievers for 2012.  At most, I think we could use a closer, a very good lefty (a Downs/Rzepczynski type), and perhaps one other guy.

    Villanueva, Perez, Litsch, and Janssen looks like a solid base to have.  If Francisco accepts arbitration, I also wouldn't mind using him again next season.  We also have some young pitchers (like Carreno) that could do very well in the pen next season, but I would prefer to put someone like Carreno in the minors, and call him up once we have an injury.

    For the rotation, adding one great starter would be my preference, and Yu Darvish is intriguing to me.  The track record for this type of signing may not be great, and I wouldn't want to post much over $40 million for him, but I've been following Darvish for years, and this guy has the "it" factor that's hard to describe (assuming his arm is still in good condition for the future).

    So yeah, on the pitching side, one great starter, a good closer candidate, and a quality lefty would be my shopping list.

    One random thought I've had - does anyone think that Cecil might be able to pitch like a Scott Downs if we put him in the bullpen?  If we have something like Romero, Darvish (example), Morrow, Alvarez, and McGowan for next season (if McGowan completes his amazing comeback), then perhaps putting Cecil in a high leverage relief role would work best for the team.  Cecil does have experience in the bullpen (he was a closer in college), he murders lefties, and he has excellent style points (cool glasses, somewhat weird delivery).

    hypobole - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#243081) #
    As long as Francisco does reasonably well, and stays reasonably healthy in September, he won't accept arbitration. As a Type B, he'll have no trouble finding work and may well even get a multi-year deal from some team.
    bball12 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#243083) #
    Ok uglyone - I'll  see you one lineup and raise you another:

    *SS - Escobar
    *2b - Sandberg
    *RF - Bautista
    *3b - Lawrie
    *LF - Bautista
    *DH - Lawrie
    *1b - Gehrig
    *C - Lawrie
    *CF - Mays

    Starting Pitcher - Lawrie

    Ya Gotta Believe!



    TamRa - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#243097) #
    This i agree with:

    I'll be the dissenting opinion and make the claim that our bullpen is actually pretty good. I would be more than happy to see 6 of our current 'pen guys back next year - Janssen, Villanueva, Francisco, Litsch, Perez, Carreno

    Albeit I find it increasingly unlikely Francisco will be back simply because of the pick situation. Don't be surprised, however, if the White Sox decline Frasor's option and AA brings him back.

    This however:

    ....and think there's plenty of potential depth arms in the org in Farquhar, Uviedo, and any of the young SP who could fill in in the BP in a pinch.


    I'm not sold on any of the minor league relievers being "projectable" by us, looking in from outside. there are several guys who might be something - but Josh Roenicke was supposed to be something until he was dispatched and Farquhar's numbers (for instance) in Vegas are little different from Roenicke's

    He might be something, Uvideo might be something, Crawford, Loup, Wright - Farina when he recovers. Can we get anything out of Mills?  to me none of these have really distinguished themselves as a "pick me!" guy.

    I think a couple of imports are likely.



    As for the Thames/Snider discussion - it makes me uncomfortable because i like Thames and I do believe people like Kieth law are selling him somewhat short. But there is a considerable problem with sample sizes. We've seen this movie before.

    His BB/K ratio is a red flag, the speed and defense issue is a legitimate point, and we don't know that he will have an upward development curve. I'm an optimist, I believe so, but I also think Snider is going to fulfill his promise too.

    for the record though, "just a guy" in this context is not Reed Johnson (even in his prime) - it's more like Luke Scott or Cody Ross or Marlon Byrd (offensively), a perfectly admirable hitter, but not an upper tier guy.

    Matthew E - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#243106) #
    Well, who is this prospect and why is his team trading him?

    I don't know who he is. His team is trading him because the Jays are offering them a good deal.
    Thomas - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#243122) #
    I don't know who he is.

    There are an extremely limited number of "excellent" 2B prospects, to use your words. It's not incredibly difficult to suggest names. There were only five 2B on Baseball America's 2011 Top 100 prospects, not that every player on that list is an "excellent" prospect. (I'm counting players listed at multiple positions as playing the position they played most often in 2011.)

    By the way, one of those 5 2B is currently playing the hot corner for the Toronto Blue Jays. (The other four are Ackley, Kipnis, Jean Segura and Danny Espinosa.)

    Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#243123) #
    There is a 20 year old second baseman who just hit .344/.411/.522 in the Midwest League, and will probably make BA's post-season top 100. Alas, he was picked right after Beede by the Cardinals and I don't think that they're giving him up. The name is Wong. Kolten Wong.

    In today's Globe sports section, there was a header on the front page "Cardinal was not comfortable dealing with media". I wondered if it was a feature on Gibson or Stan the Man or Curt Flood, or perhaps TLR or Rasmus. The answer was none of the above- the Globe has the obits after the sports section and it referred to Cardinal Ambrozic who passed away recently.
    hypobole - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#243124) #

    Wong might not be major league ready, even with his gaudy Low A numbers. Cord Phelps has been suggested by others, and the Tribe's minor league pitching may be a bit depleteted, so there could be a match.

    If we could sign KJ for one year, it would be ideal.

    BTW - Rajai sighting in the leadoff spot for the Dunedin Jays today 

    Mike Green - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#243129) #
    Wong almost surely needs at least 1/2 a season in double A, at the absolute minimum. The last player to make the jump from the Midwest League directly to the majors was, to the best of my recollection, Albert Pujols.
    bpoz - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#243142) #
    Sept call ups?

    When I predicted breakout years for the pitcher Bell & M Sierra for 2010, believe I jinxed them. Both had injury problems.

    I was also in full agreement with Mick D about the NYY demise this year. Boy was I wrong. Just wait till next year for my glowing prediction for NYY and the gushing over their FA signings. Did I pick Oakland to come out of the West?

    Since Cooper & Mills are having very good years and are on the 40 man roster, they are my Sept call ups. If I jinx them my 2012 prediction will be NYY & Boston to win 100+ games.
    scottt - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#243144) #
    McCoy at short, Teahen in left field, Molina as the designated hitter and Wise in center field. Not really trying to win,but I still hope they thrash CC.
    smcs - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#243145) #
    McCoy at short, Teahen in left field, Molina as the designated hitter and Wise in center field. Not really trying to win,but I still hope they thrash CC.

    Escobar is hurt. Thames is hurt. Lind can't hit lefties. Rasmus is hurt.
    China fan - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#243146) #
    Given that the Jays have 3 injured regulars (which accounts for the presence of Wise, McCoy and Teahen), and given that Molina has a higher OPS than Lind these days, this lineup does actually represent an attempt to win. 
    China fan - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#243147) #

    Or, what scms said. 

     (Hadn't seen his post when I posted....)

    scottt - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#243160) #
    What would the "trying to lose" lineup look like? Bench Bautista?

    We are in September after all.
    bpoz - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#243184) #
    In Cecil's previous start he was high in the zone and this start he was low in the zone. To the first 2 hitters he threw 1 strike in about 8 pitches. He has had to pitch with so many things that he relies on not working this year IMO.

    My comment with the "glass half full" is that he is still young & LH, Great change up, channels his emotions & frustrations into decent? pitching results. Since I always thought highly of him... he will get some breaks & pitch a No No this year or next.
    How Hard Should the Jays Try to Win in September? | 137 comments | Create New Account
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