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It's time, surely, to change the subject?


I wanted to refer everyone to Rany Jazayerli's latest offering over at Grantland. Jazayerli believes he has discovered something:

for perhaps the first time in baseball history, minor league prospects seem to be overvalued by MLB front offices...

We've reached a point where trading away prospects is the new market inefficiency.

The Jays trading Molina for Santos is Exhibit A in his argument; Arizona trading Jarrod Parker and two other prospects to Oakland for Trevor Cahill is Exhibit B. Anyway, I think he might be on to something. Certainly the modern well-informed fan does seem to become extremely attached to young men who have never actually accomplished anything in the major leagues. Many of them never will, either.
Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 09:32 PM EST.
Moving Right Along | 190 comments | Create New Account
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92-93 - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 10:09 PM EST (#249528) #
I think it's impossible for us to know the value of a prospect to the Jays because we don't know what kind of budget constraints AA is working with. If Bruce Arthur is correct: "Anthopoulos was careful to note the payroll parameters he has been given — which resulted in a US$70-million payroll on Opening Day last season — remain in place."

This is the only reason I'd be reluctant to trade prospects for established talent.

JP Ricciardi said something interesting on TSN today. To paraphrase, he talked about how for the first 4 years the payroll was around 50m, and then Rogers gave him a 5 year plan (the dreaded words, I know, but not the same ones Griffin always referred to) of an increased payroll. After year 3 (2008) they pulled the rug out from underneath him. It's important to judge his spending habits with proper context, and that was an expectation that in 2009-2010 he would have a 100-120m payroll to work with.

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Matthew E - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 10:22 PM EST (#249530) #
Moving Right Along

Someone come and fetch us; we're in Saskatchewan.

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MatO - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 10:24 PM EST (#249531) #
Ted Rogers died in December 2008.
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ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 10:51 PM EST (#249533) #
I wonder how much of this is a consequence of the internet. When the Sox traded Bagwell for Larry Anderson, most diehard Red Sox (actually in those days they all died hard) hardly knew who Bagwell was. In fact, I'm trying to remember what trade publications we had outside of the Almanac that provided minor league information. It wasn't until Bagwell became one of the 3 B's that Boston fans were upset.

Nowadays, minor league names are tossed about with regularity and the predictable pretense of expertise. People who've never seen minor league baseball let alone the players they're discussing can hype individuals with a broad range of available statistical information, whereas 30 years ago if Toronto traded a low minor leaguer for another team's closer, unless it was one of the most commonly mentioned minor leaguers (like Carlos Delgado) it would have seemed like a steal. And from what Rany and Goldstein have said, Santos for Molina seems to be.

Lastly, I'm a bit apprehensive about this article given that this may be exactly what our front office is thinking.
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John Northey - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 10:58 PM EST (#249535) #
Molina (who is projected to be a reliever) getting traded one-for-one for a closer who is under team control for up to 6 years is an extreme example. Unless you see Molina becoming an above average starting pitcher the trade makes no sense from a White Sox POV. Mix in that Williams said he thought he'd have to give up more and one shakes their head.

Other trades the Jays made in the past year...
  • Danny Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson to the Oakland Athletics. Received Rajai Davis.
    Two minor league relievers (traditionally the definition of next to no value) for a guy who had over 400 PA two years running.
  • Traded a solid major league starting pitcher for a prospect in AA (Marcum for Lawrie)
  • The Wells trade (nothing explains that one short of lots of hard liquor)
  • David Purcey for Farquhar (guy they were going to release for a minor league reliever)
  • 3 ML relievers, 1 starting prospect, plus Patterson for Rasmus and a batch of salary dumps
    Basically it was Stewart and Rzep for Rasmus - two guys with around 120 IP pre-2011 in the majors for a young near all-star who was seriously slumping
  • Slumping 2B for another 2B with a backup infielder mixed in
  • Mills (AAAA starter) for Mathis (pure defence catcher)
  • 25 year old AA reliever for a backup outfielder with a 103 OPS+
Anything involving minor leaguers tended to be one or two prospects for something of value or minor league relievers for backups. Very odd as minor leaguers used to be cheap but clearly teams (including this one) see them as far more of a sure thing than in the past.

I suspect the best shot at gaining more young talent is for AA to trade minor leaguers for minor leaguers (thus avoiding the premium on minor leaguers) or more like the Escobar/Rasmus deals where minor leaguers (aka potential) was traded for slumping quality players.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:03 PM EST (#249537) #
Well Rany's just writing what I assume we've all been thinking.

Prospects in baseball have become tremendously overvalued.  So many of them end up not amounting to much.  This puts the Jays in a great spot, with their good, and most importantly, deep system.  They can start trading these chips for established players, like the Molina-Santos deal.

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ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:21 PM EST (#249539) #
Basically it was Stewart and Rzep for Rasmus

And Frasor.
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Ducey - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:23 PM EST (#249540) #

3 ML relievers, 1 starting prospect, plus Patterson for Rasmus and a batch of salary dumps

I am still not convinced Rasmus will amount to anything.  And I miss Zep.


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Jonny German - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:37 PM EST (#249541) #
I am still not convinced Rasmus will amount to anything.

Maybe he won't, but that's a gamble you take every time if you're trying to build for the future. Rasmus was the best centre fielder in the game at 23 years old. The talent is there.
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christaylor - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:37 PM EST (#249542) #
I don't think the post could be any more bang-on, especially for a team like the Blue Jays a team that, does have the resources to fill holes in FA and while they have a deep farm system they don't have any of the top-rung prospects (apologies to D'Arnaud and Gose) that are thought of as can't miss (as Rasmus was once thought of... not to mention Snider).

This off season, at the deadline (depending on where the team is at an for whom), and next off season, I hope to see the team shed some prospects after stocking up one last time in the draft. The minors are there for one thing only and can do it in two ways, kids working their way up the system and being traded for players who have a track record in the majors. I think the Jays would do well to do some more of the latter.

If D'Arnaud/Gose (and maybe and) could be part of bring back Felix. Go. Now. Run, don't walk AA. He's the tip, adjust the prospect back accordingly. Also, if for some reason a team wants Snider... jump on that. A prospect package for a SP makes too much sense. More sense that throwing money at Darvish, IMO. Then again, I've never been on for the prospect porn. I'm interested, but I generally only care when I see a September call-up and even those can be misleading (Snider, Lind).
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ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 20 2011 @ 11:38 PM EST (#249543) #
In the 'timing is everything' department, JIm Callis tweeted tonight that Molina would have been #18 in his ranking of Blue Jays prospects.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:01 AM EST (#249545) #
I think the Molina/Santos trade and the Cahill/Parker trade are quite different. Getting Santos for Molina IMO, was a steal. Trading Cahill for Parker and Cowgill is not the same and Jazayerli is wrong about a few things here. 1) That Breslow is worth Cowgill and Cook. I think Cowgill is likely going to be a fourth OFer and Cook nothing more than a middle reliever, but Breslow was incredibly hittable last year. He gave up an .866 OPS to lefties. 2) This type of stuff really annoys me: " So, superficially, his 2011 performance looks like a step back — his ERA jumped to 4.16, which is slightly below league average when you factor in that Oakland plays in a pitchers' park. But in reality, Cahill took a step forward "...no, he didn't. His WHIP rose from 1.108 to 1.425 because he was much more hittable. Using K/IP as the only indicator of success is just silly. Was Romero worse this year than last because he had a worse K/Ip ratio? I think Oakland could have probably got a better third prospect, but I don't think the trade is out of whack by any means.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:02 AM EST (#249546) #

People who've never seen minor league baseball let alone the players they're discussing can hype individuals with a broad range of available statistical information

Ladies and gennemen ... welcome to Batter's Box!

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Ron - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:30 AM EST (#249548) #
I'm so confident King Felix will be the Jays opening day starter, I'm willing to buy everybody here a Tim Horton's Double Double at a game next season if it doesn't happen.

It's time for AA to make a "Godfather" offer to a team that has no chance at making the playoffs the next 3 seasons.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:43 AM EST (#249549) #

To obtain Felix Hernandez from 'He who gave us Brandon Morrow', I would give:

1) Adeiny Hechavarria (SS),  Yunel Escobar is under contract for the next 4 years.   In that time, at least 1 of D.J. Thon Jr., Christian Lopes, Dewal Lugo, Gustavo Pierre, Jorge Vega-Rosado, Ryan goins, Andrew Burns, Shane Optiz or Jon Diaz will be ready to take over.

2) Anthony Gose (CF), Colby Rasmus is under control for the next 3 years.   In that time, we`ll have Jake Marisnick, Marcus Knecht, Michael Crouse, Chris Hawkins, Dwight Smith Jr. or Wilmer Baccara ready to take over.

3) Travis d`Arnaud (C), J.P. Arencibia is under team control for the next 5 years.   In that time, we`ll have Yan Gomes, A.J. Jimenez, Carlos Perez, Santiago Nessy, as well as Brian Jeroloman, Sean Ochinko and Jon Talley move through the system.

4) 1 or two of Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins, Drew Hutchison,, Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Adonis Cardona, Kevin Comer, Roberto Osuna and Asher Wojciechowski to name a few (still 16 more worth mentioning).

5) Any or all of Travis Snider, who is competing with Rajai Davis, Eric Thames and Ben Francisco for just 2 spots; Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil who are competing Dustin McGowan, Henderson Alvarez, Carlos Villanueva (or Reliever), Joel Carreno (or Reliever of AAA Starter), Luis Perez (or Reliever or AAA Starter/Reliever) competing for two Starting spots.

With some kind of package, I`m sure we can make a deal.

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Ron - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:59 AM EST (#249550) #
Richard SS, I wouldn't even put those kinds of "restrictions" in a trade offer. If I'm AA, I'm telling Jack Z he can select any 5 players from the farm system (Snider and Thames can also be selected). Even after a trade like this, the farm system would still be in good shape because the Jays have so much prospect depth and a huge amount of draft next picks next year.

Even with King Felix on the club, the Mariners are a really bad team. He also has little impact on attendance. The best move for the Mariners is to trade him right now and speed up the rebuilding process.
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sam - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:11 AM EST (#249551) #
I'm going to refer people to my list on the previous page of potential pitching options in the category of no one saw that coming. Felix is there, but he's earning $20 million dollars the next three years. So I don't know.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:13 AM EST (#249552) #
Okay, but dudes, even with Hernandez to front the rotation, the Jays don't make the playoffs next year, do they? Now if they break the bak and get Felix AND Big Cec's kid, maybe there's a chance, but that seems so wildly unlikely that even the Yu Darvish overpostings of the past few days would pale in comparison.
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TamRa - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:09 AM EST (#249554) #
"Richard SS, I wouldn't even put those kinds of "restrictions" in a trade offer. If I'm AA, I'm telling Jack Z he can select any 5 players from the farm system (Snider and Thames can also be selected). Even after a trade like this, the farm system would still be in good shape because the Jays have so much prospect depth and a huge amount of draft next picks next year."


I don't mind that in principle but I'd still work off lists, so as to keep them from doubling up on a thiner position. for instance:

List A - arrived or close pitchers:
Brett Cecil
Kyle Drabek
Henderson Alvarez
Deck McGuire
Drew Hutchison

List B - distant pitchers:
Aaron Sanchez
Noah Syndergaard
Justin Nicolino
Asher Wojcichowski
Adonys Cardona

List C - close hitters:
Travis d'Arnaud
Anthony Gose
Adeiny Hechevarria
Eric Thames
Travis Snider

List D - distant hitters:
Jake Marisnick
Michael Crouse
Marcus Knecht
Chris Hawkins
A.J. Jimenez

List E - filler:
Chad Jenkins
Moises Sierra
David Cooper
Mike McDade
Griffin Murphy

"You may pick any combination of one guy from each list, with the exception that you cannot have both Gose and Marisnick."

This is for example purposes only, though I think the only guy not listed that someone might target is such a deal is Carlos Perez - I just left him off so as to have five names on each list.

Point being to not have them seriously hole any one area of depth while still getting an excellent package.

I tend to think Snider would have more value to them than anywhere, because of the hometown angle.

A deal of Snider, Drabek, Syndergaard, Jimenez, Jenkins is good - but maybe they see the obvious that d'Arnaud is the best prize and the negotiate to get both he and Snider, but only take 4 players -

d'Arnaud and Snider and Drabek/Alvarez and Syndergaard for example.

I dunno. I'm not convinced they are ready to deal him.
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TamRa - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:12 AM EST (#249555) #
"Okay, but dudes, even with Hernandez to front the rotation, the Jays don't make the playoffs next year, do they?"

they have three years to get it done.

Speculation is fun, but (and this might be my heart more than my head) I'd really rather reach the top with OUR guys than go out and bring in the big gun. I mean, I understand you will get guys to supplement what you develop - Rasmus, Santos for example. but those are pieces of a puzzle, parts to a machine - it's kinda different when you go get THE hammer and bring in and creates the illusion that he alone made the difference.

it's not rational, but emotionally that's how i feel.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:18 AM EST (#249556) #

Any 5 guys from the minors, hmmm:

Drew Hutchison, Daniel Norris, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard and Henderson Alvarez or no deal.

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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:28 AM EST (#249557) #

Hernandez, Romero, Morrow, and the next best Two equals at least 5+ Wins.   With an E.I.G. and A LOOGY yet to come, the new Bullpen equals at least 7+ Wins.   The improved lineup, even without Prince Fielder (worth at least 3+ wins by himself), is equal to at least 5+ Wins.  

Yes, baring Bad Stuff happening,we make the playoffs next year.  

Merry Christmas everyone and Good Night.

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Dave Rutt - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:47 AM EST (#249558) #
Richard, I assume your wins figures are improvements over last year - in which case you're vastly overrating the effect of the bullpen. The team will be lucky to get 1 more win (i.e. WAR, not pitcher wins, which don't equate to team wins) out of the bullpen. Bullpens just don't have that big of an effect, are unpredictable, and last year's wasn't that bad to begin with.

With the usual caveats about the inaccuracy of using WAR for relievers, of course.
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joeblow - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 09:16 AM EST (#249560) #
King Felix would be nice but the parameters above are ridiculous. If it took 3 players to get Halladay, why 5 for Hernandez? His contract is fairly valued. Would you give up the same 5 to get Halladay back? Too early to blow up the farm to me. I would expect some salary will have to move the other way as well. And Alvarez is off the list. He's too close.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 09:48 AM EST (#249563) #
I am astonished at the lack of patience of this board - AA is only 2 years into this job and you want to give up the farm - King Felix is not going to make the Jays contenders and exchanging 30 years of control of your prime prospects for 3 years of Felix @ 20m is a bad deal - For me, I'm sticking very much with the plan and I loved the way the team was built in the 80's,loved the way Texas just built their contender and would like the Jays to follow suit - AA has at least 2 more years before I would get anxious about lack of contention - Also, if I was going to make a farm sellout trade it would be for Mike Stanton. All I can say is,Stick with the plan AA, it's going great and I'm convinced it has a great shot at taking us to the promised land - so, an absolute no to giving up any 5 prospects for King Felix    
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subculture - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:07 AM EST (#249566) #
+1
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CeeBee - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:35 AM EST (#249569) #
+2
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Mike Green - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:35 AM EST (#249570) #
Yes, baring Bad Stuff happening,we make the playoffs next year

Rule 1.  Go light on the eggnog when near the mistletoe or you might end up baring Bad Stuff. 
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Shane - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:44 AM EST (#249571) #

Ricciardi was giving TSN an interview? TV? TSN.ca print?

February 2005 Rogers announced it was committing to $210 million in payroll over the next three years. So that became the total payroll for '05-06-07, then privately they told him, they'd increase the payrolls in the years after to $120 MM each year?

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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:49 AM EST (#249572) #
MLBTR is reporting an interesting offer from the Braves to the Orioles: Prado, Jurrens and a minor leaguer for Adam Jones.  Would we take the same for Colby Rasmus?
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rfan8 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:52 AM EST (#249573) #

The disconnect seems to be that some folks, including a lot of casual fans, feel this team is not far away from contention and only requires one or two pieces to get there, albeit pretty large pieces.  Others feel that they aren't quite ready yet, that the 'core' isn't quite ready. Really it's a matter of where you think we are in the rebuild process.  Personally, I think we are a year away.  I would like to see what Rasmus, Snider, Lawrie, Arencibia, Morrow, Alvarez etc. can do next year before I say the core is good.  They all have great promise, but haven't shown they can do it consistently over a longer period of time.

I guess there are others who are skeptical that Rogers will ever spend but that's a more difficult question to address. 

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zeppelinkm - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 10:58 AM EST (#249574) #
I am quite confident Jurrjens would get destroyed in the AL East.  I would only acquire him if I could flip him to another team for another player. A 5.2 K/9 does not portend to end well in the East, me thinks.

He's more likely to be Jurrjens, circa 2010, IMO, then Jurrjens circa 2009 or 2011 if he's brought over to the East.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 11:30 AM EST (#249576) #
My thinking is AA is after 25 year olds and less generally speaking. Felix is entering his age 26 season and is clearly a 'true ace' ala Halladay and is coming off a 'bad' year (his K/9, BB/9, HR/9 were pretty much as always but his H/9 jumped leading to his ERA climbing a bit and his W-L being 14-14) thus might be more possible than the season before (AA's MO-get a guy off a 'bad' year). Plus he has 3 years of team control pre-free agency.

Now, would I give up our top 5 prospects? No. 3 high ranking ones? Yes but I'd try to direct Seattle to ones the Jays scouts feel are less likely to break out anytime soon.

It is hard to find guys who can be Cy Young contenders year-in-year-out who are near the age 25 marker. They are very expensive either in cash (Darvish) or prospects (anyone else). Lets hope AA is at the top of his game and able to find something amazing in the next few months.

Fielder and other FA's would be nice but are luxury items at this stage. Once the Jays win 90+ then a high level FA is worthwhile, but until then focus is and should be on increasing the number of quality kids in the system.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 11:34 AM EST (#249577) #
"I am astonished at the lack of patience of this board - AA is only 2 years into this job and you want to give up the farm - King Felix is not going to make the Jays contenders and exchanging 30 years of control of your prime prospects for 3 years of Felix @ 20m is a bad deal."

It's not necessarily lack of patience it's acknowledging that Bautista's dominance likely has a relatively small window.

" I loved the way the team was built in the 80's,loved the way Texas just built their contender and would like the Jays to follow suit"

It's a different era than the 1980's. Every team used to build roughly the same way. Now, if the Jays relied almost solely on their own system, they'd never win. That model is outdated. You need to be willing to trade prospects and you need to spend money on big free agents. Especially in the AL East. Incidentally, the 1980's Jays never won. The 1990's Jays who won two World Series are the teams that traded away Jeff Kent, Mark Whiten, and Derek Bell. That is the price of success. The top prospect you trade might turn out to be Jeff Kent, but they might also turn out to be Steve Karsay.

I don't particularly like the idea of trading five great prospects for Felix as I think there is good value to be had with #2/3 type starters.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 11:42 AM EST (#249578) #
My thinking is AA is after 25 year olds and less generally speaking.

This is a silly restriction. "Several years of control at reasonable prices" is deisreable, as is "Likely to be as good or better going forward compared to what he is today". But 25 years old or less is simply something that often coincides with those desireable qualities. Yunel Escobar and Sergio Santos did not fit an arbitrary age requirement but were nonetheless fine targets.
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Anders - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:01 PM EST (#249579) #
Richard SS, I wouldn't even put those kinds of "restrictions" in a trade offer. If I'm AA, I'm telling Jack Z he can select any 5 players from the farm system (Snider and Thames can also be selected). Even after a trade like this, the farm system would still be in good shape because the Jays have so much prospect depth and a huge amount of draft next picks next year.

With respect, this is batsh*t #*@$* insane, and is never going to happen.
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:11 PM EST (#249580) #
"loved the way Texas just built their contender and would like the Jays to follow suit"

Texas is 41-47 vs. the AL East these last 2 seasons that they've went to the World Series.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:14 PM EST (#249581) #

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Texas build is present day not 80's

I have no problems with trading prospects especially if the team is contending as with the Jeff Kent & Steve Karsay trades which I liked when they happened or with Texas acquiring Cliff Lee and Mike Adams etc. or signing Beltre - those are the type of moves I want my team to make when they are contenders, but the Jays are not there yet. 

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Anders - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:17 PM EST (#249582) #
It's a different era than the 1980's. Every team used to build roughly the same way. Now, if the Jays relied almost solely on their own system, they'd never win. That model is outdated. You need to be willing to trade prospects and you need to spend money on big free agents. Especially in the AL East. Incidentally, the 1980's Jays never won.

This is a joke, right?

1. You've heard of the Tampa Bay Rays maybe? They made the playoffs three of the last four years in the AL East and lost in the World Series by relying almost solely on their own system? I think their biggest free agent signing was Johnny Damon.
Or the Texas Rangers that lost the last two World Series? In 2010 their entire lineup save Vlad Guerrero (a big money $5.5 million) was essentially home grown. They traded prospects for Cliff Lee, but didn't re-sign him, and they signed Rich Harden to a deal that didn't work out at all. In 2011 Lee left and they signed Beltre. It's not like they got there by spending there way to the top - when they were ready they made key targeted acquisitions. The Jays aren't really that close to being a playoff team, especially when three of the seven or so best teams in baseball are in their division.

2. Blue Jay wins by year, 1983-1993: 89, 89, 99 (lost ALCS), 86, 96, 87, 89 (lost ALCS), 86, 91 (lost ALCS), 96 (WS), 95 (WS.)

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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:23 PM EST (#249584) #
Shane, Ricciardi was on TSN radio. He didn't give specific figures for the payroll target in Year 4 and 5, he just said that the plan was stopped.
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:31 PM EST (#249585) #
IMO AA wants good players on the ML team & also in the minors.
Eg Marcum/Lawrie & Molina/Santos.

We discussed the new CBA in a recent thread. Looks like only elite FAs will be offered Arb, so the July trades will be affected.
So EE may have his highest value in July. Our record then will determine, if he should be traded.

In the Rasmus trade are CWS, Jays & Cards all happy? They all had different goals at the time, short & long term.

Based on what many are saying, I would trade Lind, EE, Cooper & McDade (favorite of mine), now or mid season & play Teahen at 1B. It all depends on if AA believes we are weak or strong contenders now.

All teams are at different stages & have different needs. AA knows this and also knows how to get his man.
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:32 PM EST (#249586) #
Ya, let's just continue to ignore that Texas plays in the AL West and that Tampa tanked for so long they backed their way into elite talent in Longoria, Upton, and Price at the top of the draft. The "building Jays", as Wilner likes to put them, don't ever select in the Top 10 and have had the advantage they were exploiting taken away from them. Why are so people so intent on denying the relationship between wins & spending? The relationship between salaries and wins has been strong.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#249587) #

I share the mindset of those that think you either add key pieces around Bautista, or you trade Bautista.

So propsects for Felix is fine by me (not our five best).

As is trading Bautista.  Would a Bautista for Teheren and Heyward deal be workable?

 

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Spookie Wookie - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:12 PM EST (#249590) #
People seem to be putting a lot of weight on the presence of Bautista. He is one player. He is on the wrong side of the aging curve, but all that means is that he is loses roughly 0.5 wins of expected performance per year. He is under control until 2016. The effect of his aging in the overall scheme of things is marginal. No sense in rushing into anything based on him alone. It would be different if there was a core of star veteran players, but there isn't. Just one excellent player, who is still likely to be performing at a high level 4 years from now.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:26 PM EST (#249593) #
Trading Bautista would be a wheel-spinning move that would push me away as a fan.

Consider: Bautista is a Blue Jay through 2016. When do other important players become free agents?

After 2012: Kelly Johnson
After 2014: Colby Rasmus, Brandon Morrow
After 2015: Yunel Escobar

This is not a team that needs to worry about "win now before everybody is gone!". They'll need a second baseman after 2012 (and it could well be Johnson himself, or it could be Escobar sliding over to make room for Hechavarria). No other key players are imminent free agents, and the ones that may depart before Bautista have obvious potential replacements alredy in the Toronto organization.

This team needs a solid starter and a legitimate first baseman to be considered a contender for 2012. I am confident AA can get this done without ransacking the farm system if his budget is at all reasonable.


And a Coke to Spookie Wookie.
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:29 PM EST (#249594) #
Morrow is a FA after 2013. If they can't sign him to an extension this offseason I'd Marcum him.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:32 PM EST (#249595) #
My mistake on Morrow. My point remains - if one of Drabek, Hutchison, Syndergaard, Nicolino, McGuire, or Wojciechowski isn't ready to replace him by then then there's really no hope for this team.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:35 PM EST (#249597) #

For me it`s a question of win-maximization.  You can maximize them now by trading prospects (and quite easily without crippling the system), or maximize them in 2-3 years by trading Bautista.  Do neither, and I think you`re hamstringing yourself a couple wins per year over the next four.

I don`t think you can trade Bautista right now, to be honest.  Maybe in 12-18 mths you reconsider based on the developent  of the likes of Rasmus, Lawrie, Snider, Alvarez, Morrow, etc (ie all the unknowns).  But this team has two cores (in terms of age/development curve) - Bautista and everybody else.  I don`t see how that`s deniable.  One of the curves `could` be used to improve the other.

 

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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 01:48 PM EST (#249600) #

And I don't see how you can claim this. How are Romero, Escobar, Santos, Johnson not part of the same core as Bautista?

I don`t see Johnson as part of a core.  He`s signed for a year and I haven`t seen any indication he will be a major producer for this team beyond that year.  Romero and Santos are conceivable in both cores.  I`ll take back the undeniable part.  This is pretty subjective stuff.  I don`t want to cause an unnecessary uprising over it.  I believe you build more assets around Bautista and I think AA is trying hard to do that. 

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John Northey - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:03 PM EST (#249601) #
Did Tampa tank they way to winning? Lets do a quick check of some key players...

Due to tanking...
Longoria: 3rd overall pick
B.J. Upton: 2nd overall pick
David Price: 1st overall pick

Via trades...
Ben Zobrist: via trade
Matthew Joyce: via trade

Via free agency...
Casey Kotchman: free agent
Kyle Farnsworth: free agent

Via lower draft picks (ie: Jays could've taken them)
Desmond Jennings: 10th round pick
James Shields: 16th round pick
Jeremy Hellickson: 4th round pick

So 3 core guys clearly in Tampa due to 'tanking' while the rest could've been gained by anyone (trades are harder, but do-able). The tanking aspect helped (a lot) but it took a lot more than just that or they'd be the KC Royals.

What matters most, by a landslide, is having a smart GM. Next is having a lucky one. Then comes going through a 'tanking it' period.
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 02:09 PM EST (#249602) #
Don't forget #1 overall Delmon Young, who led to Garza & Bartlett. TB doesn't compete in the AL East on that budget without being horrendous for years.
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Anders - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 03:06 PM EST (#249603) #
Don't forget #1 overall Delmon Young, who led to Garza & Bartlett. TB doesn't compete in the AL East on that budget without being horrendous for years.

I certainly agree that this was a major catalyst. However they've been good for four straight years and had the second ranked farm system going into 2011 per Keith Law. They are an extremely well run team, maybe the best in baseball. At a certain point I think one has to take into account the present more than the past.
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Magpie - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 03:28 PM EST (#249604) #
It's indeed true that Tampa was very, very bad for an historically long time. They needed to be - they completely wasted a first overall draft pick on Josh Hamilton. The next year they blew another (third overall) on Dewon Brazelton. Finally the next year they took Rocco Baldelli 6th overall. Good pick, but injury and illness wrecked his career just as it was getting really interesting. (Surely one of the saddest stories in the game these last ten years.) Anyway, the first Tampa team that did anything (the 2008 squad) got its key players just about every way you could imagine.

They traded prospects (Young and company, Josh Butler) for major league talent (Matt Garza, Jason Bartlet, Gabe Gross)

They traded major league talent (Huff, Hendrickson, Hall, Baez, Carter, Zambrano) for prospects/unproven players (Edwin Jackson, Dioner Navarro, Scott Kazmir, Ben Zobrist)

They signed a Japanese player (Iwamura)

Two players drafted and deveoped were outstanding (Longoria and Shields)

Three Players drafted and developed also contributed (Crawford, Upton, Sonnanstine)

They signed a famous, if past-his-prime free agent (Troy Percival, Cliff Floyd)

They traded for the bullpen, apart from Percival - they got Balfour for McClung, Howell for Gathright, Wheeler for Wigginton.

They got really lucky rooting through the scrap heap (Carlos Pena)
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 03:37 PM EST (#249605) #

...The team will be lucky to get 1 more win (i.e. WAR, not pitcher wins, which don't equate to team wins) out of the bullpen...

3 April 2011, (Toronto trails 3-2 Top of 9th), Rauch gives up solo HR (4th run) in Top of 9th, Blue Jays (score 1 in Bot. of 9th) lose 4-3.   Does Rauch cost the team a win, that the new bullpen won't, or will this year's improved offense be that much better?   Who should get credited with the team win or team loss?   IMO: Offense - 1st, Bullpen - 2nd, Starter - 3rd.   Hard to determine accurately isn't it?

At this Site, but not a Post on this page, it was discussed what getting a Closer for this Team would do.   (It's possible Toronto was the MLB leader in Blown Saves, last year.)   The Brighter Lights on this Site decided that an improvement of only 6 Team Wins could be possible, or was acceptable.   Is Santos a Closer?   I think so, but so does A.A.   (6 Wins)   Whomever A.A. acquires as E.I.G. with Janssen as 7.I.G. will be an upgrade on what we had.   (2 Wins)   I'm happy with Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva as Long/Short/Spot Start Guys.   If we go with a 6-man Bullpen, we will need 1 LOOGY (possibly Cecil).   (1 Win)   However, if we go with a 7-man Bullpen, we will need 2 LOOGY.   A.A. may be after one.   (possibly 2 Wins)   That got me 10 wins, so I thought 7 was a reasonable estimate.   I am not a grumpy, snarly Pessimist with gas, that some Posters are, so I am not surprised that someone might take issue with my ideas.

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gnor - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#249606) #
FYI, I just did some research in baseballreference.com. I looked up the top 5 draft picks in the years 2001-2005, far enough back for a top prospect to have a significant career in the majors. Out of the 25 draftees I researched, only 11 have had a significant major league career.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 03:44 PM EST (#249607) #
That is much like the first great Jays team in 1985 (99 wins still the Jays record).

Expansion draft - Ernie Whitt, Garth Iorg, Jim Clancy
Scrap heap - Doyle Alexander
Free agent compensation - Tom Henke
Rule 5 - Bell, Upshaw, Lee, Thornton, Gruber, Acker
International FA - Tony Fernandez, Luis Leal
Free Agent - Dennis Lamp
Converted from hitter to pitcher - Dave Stieb
Drafted - Key, Moseby, Barfield
Minor league draft - Mitch Webster
Trades - Mulliniks, Garcia, Fielder, Johnson, Oliver, Lavelle, Caudill

Others were there too, but geez quite the mix eh? You sure can see why Gillick was viewed as the master of the Rule 5. He even missed out on a few he later said he thought about but didn't draft like Wade Boggs (twice - was finally going to take him the 3rd time but Boston finally protected him).
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Magpie - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 04:15 PM EST (#249608) #
3 April 2011, (Toronto trails 3-2 Top of 9th), Rauch gives up solo HR (4th run) in Top of 9th, Blue Jays (score 1 in Bot. of 9th) lose 4-3. Does Rauch cost the team a win

Believe it or not, that sort of thing happens to the other teams, too. With jaw-dropping regularity.

It's probably why every team's fans - there are absolutely no exceptions, zero - think the local manager is an absolute idiot when it comes to running a bullpen.
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Magpie - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 04:19 PM EST (#249609) #
It's possible Toronto was the MLB leader in Blown Saves, last year.

They weren't (just tied for the AL lead, with the Angels). The ML leader was Washington.

And in second place.... the St. Louis Cardinals. Who had what I would regard as a fairly successful season.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 04:26 PM EST (#249610) #

...I don`t see Johnson as part of a core.  He`s signed for a year and I haven`t seen any indication he will be a major producer for this team beyond that year...

Show me the link to the Kelly Johnson Contract Signing.   As far as I know, he's accepted Arbitration for a 1 year non-guarenteed contract and that's not a signing!   A.A. has said he'll like to discuss a long-term contract with him, and nothing as yet indicates anything different.   Going to: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html I find these players as available 2B:

Second basemen
Jeff Baker (32): http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml ;

Robinson Cano (30) - $15MM club option with a $2MM buyout: The New York Yankees will re-sign (99% chance) him or they will investigate a trade.   He's never going to a Free agent;

Orlando Hudson (35) - $8MM club option with a $2MM buyout  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoor01.shtml ;    

Maicer Izturis (32) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/izturma01.shtml ;

Kelly Johnson (31) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml ;Howie Kendrick (29) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrho01.shtml ;

Adam Kennedy (37) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kennead01.shtml ;

Ian Kinsler (31) - $10MM club option with a $500K buyout: The Texas Rangers will re-sign (90%) him or they will trade him.   I don't see him as a Free Agent ever;

Jose Lopez (29) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezjo01.shtml ;

Brandon Phillips (32) If he`s a Free Agent, I`m shocked.   He`ll ask for and receive; 5+ years, $15.0+ MM per year. He`s too rich for my blood ;

Freddy Sanchez (35) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchfr01.shtml .

If I have a choice, of someone I can reasonably expect to be available, I choose Johnson.   Anyone on a 2+ year contract is part of the core, at this point.

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StephenT - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 04:41 PM EST (#249611) #

Basically it was Stewart and Rzep for Rasmus 

The Jays also gave up 2 draft picks (the compensation for Dotel).

And approx $7 million (in the Teahen contract, unless they can unload some of it).

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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 07:15 PM EST (#249613) #

...AA is only 2 years into this job and you want to give up the farm - King Felix is not going to make the Jays contenders and exchanging 30 years of control of your prime prospects for 3 years of Felix @ 20m is a bad deal...

Take the top ten Teams in Baseball, and tell me on which of those teams, could Ricky Romero be their Ace.   Then, take the same top ten Teams in Baseball, and tell me on which of those teams, could Felix Hernandez be their Ace.   Then tell me again, this is bad.

J.P. Arencibia (25), is 2nd year pre-arb, under contract through 2016.   Travis d`Arnaud (22), will be in AAA in 2012 (not ready to take over in 2012).    The next bright thing(s) in the system might be Yan Gomes (24) in AA/AAA or A.J. Jimenez (21) in A+.   Travis d`Arnaud has huge trade value, but might be blocked.   Any other prospects trade value is more potential than developed.

Yunel Escobar (29), is under contract the next 4 years, through 2015.   Adeiny Hechavarria (22), returns to AAA in 2012 (but still can`t hit good enough to be up in 2012).   The next bright thing(s) in the system is in the lowest minors, with some talent higher up (and 4 years to develop).   Adeiny Hechavarria has big trade value, needs to hit.   Any other prospects trade value is more potential than developed.

Colby Rasmus (25), is 1st year Arb, and under contract through 2014.   Anthony Gose (21), will be in AAA in 2012 (still has no idea of what to do with 2 strikes - no plan).   The next bright thing(s) in the minors are too numerous to mention: in AAA, AA, A+, A, A-, RK+, RK-, DSL, it`s deep.   Anthony Gose has huge trade value, and is easily replaceable.

Travis Snider (24), 3rd year pre-arb,competes with Rajai Davis (31), under contract for next two years; Eric Thames (25), pre-arb; and Ben Francisco (30), is 2nd year Arb, for a LF and 4th OF position opening.   Travis Snider could still have good trade value to the right GM.

Dustin McGowan (29), is 3rd year Arb; Brett Cecil (25), is 2nd year pre-arb; and Kyle Drabek (24), is pre-arb, could very well be competing for 1 Starter opening or 1 Bullpen opening.   The next bright things in the minors are a continuous waver from AA on down, sweeping them under.   Brett Cecil has very good trade value (LHSP).   Kyle Drabek has very good trade value to the right GM.

When you consider who`s under contract,  who`s next in line, and who`s their replacement, you realize were getting a backlog in players that must be cleared.   Even losing your 5 best anything, will be replaced.   Felix Hernandez (or someone his caliber) and Ricky Romero are as good as almost any 1-2 in MLB.   I think he gets us into the post season.   Now tell me again, we don't have enough to trade.

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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 07:27 PM EST (#249614) #
Unless you can spend 100-120m on payroll you don't trade prospects for Felix Hernandez.
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Flex - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 07:43 PM EST (#249615) #
Unless you can spend 100-120m on payroll you don't trade prospects for Felix Hernandez.

That's a really interesting statement and I'd like to hear more. Are you saying as a low-budget team prospects are more valuable?
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bball12 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 07:46 PM EST (#249616) #
Richard SS - for what its worth - I think you always contribute very objective posts. I really enjoy reading what you post.

Hech is not ready
Talk about Sierra in 2012 is silly.
Gose isnt ready - and needs to make significant adjustments.
Thames - no in in the field. It isnt going to happen. He's a DH.
Snider - trade him.

The big questions for me: (pitching aside)

Will Arencibia play better defense?
What in gods name will Rasmus do? Absolutely anything is possible.
Will Lawrie settle in and produce consistently - and not hurt himself?
How will AA improve the 1b situation?
Can Johnson play a reasonable 2B?

We can bank on Esco and Bautista.
Lots of questions - too many for me to bet on competing.

Unless - AA makes some smart trades.

I am confident he will.

And remember - no more Pattersons/Riveras/Wises. No exceptions.

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pubster - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 07:47 PM EST (#249617) #
I think he's saying that if you have a small payroll you need young cheap players to out perform their salary to compete.

I think Romero could be the ace on a lot of teams. I'd rather have him than Sabathia on my team.

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bpoz - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 09:00 PM EST (#249618) #
AA & I want 5 Aces.

TB, SF, Phillies, LAA maybe a couple of others have more than 1 Ace. Right now we have 1 Ace. however I believe in our potential due to our pitching depth.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 09:58 PM EST (#249619) #
I hope the Jays land Beltran on a two-year deal plus option (vesting or club). He would strengthen the lineup, boost the team's playoff chances and preserve flexibility for when Gose, Sierra and/or Marisnick emerge in a year or two. If the Jays fell out of contention, he would be a useful trade chip as well.

Farrell could go with a lineup something like:

Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Beltran DH/LF
Lawrie 3B
Lind/EE 1B/DH
Rasmus CF
Arencibia C
Snider/Thames LF/DH

Which is not half bad, although I don't love KJ hitting second and pencilling in Lind's name in the lineup always annoys me. It's amazing how much better his 2009 was than any of his other seasons (OPS almost 200 points higher than his next-best full season). Here's a question: besides Rizzo, who are some possible next-gen first basemen coming up through the minors? Now that Votto is firmly unavailable, there's gotta be some gem AA can unearth somewhere.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 11:09 PM EST (#249623) #
Wil Meyers?
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 21 2011 @ 11:19 PM EST (#249624) #
Flex: Yes, that's essentially what I'm saying. Felix Hernandez is a 20m player. The Blue Jays payroll projects to be between 65-70m. To add Felix AA needs to know that he can spend 100-120m on the payroll, because otherwise the team will have to sell off players in arbitration because they can't afford their raises. He may be excellent and he may be young, but when AA is looking for cost-controlled players he doesn't mean the ones making 19, 20, and 20.5m.

Pubster: I'm going to assume you are putting a heavy emphasis on the contracts of Sabathia and Romero, because Sabathia is a MUCH better pitcher.
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Mick Doherty - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 12:41 AM EST (#249627) #

You know, it just occurred to me -- and maybe my erstwhile roster counterpart who posted the thread meant this intentionally?) that th e headline and the theme really work toegether nicely in a muppety sort of way  ....

Movin' right along
In search of good times and good news
Together we can't lose
This could become a habit ....
Opportunity knocks once, let's reach out and grab it
Together we'll nab it ... Yeah!
We'll hitch-hike, bus or yellow-cab it! (Cab it?)
Movin' right a long ....

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John Northey - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 01:33 AM EST (#249628) #
If the Jays are 100% unwilling to go past 70m for a payroll then the odds are extremely against them ever winning. Yes, Tampa did do it but it takes a lot of things going right to do it on the cheap.

I'm going on the assumption they will reach 100m if needed with option of going to 120m once they are on the cusp of winning. AA won't blow it now but has a long term budget in mind I'm sure (any 1/2 decent GM should).

Checking Cot's you can see the Jays future obligations.
CA: JPA is team controlled both years, Molina was $1 mil, Mathis is $1.5
1B: Lind is as expensive as he'll get until 2014-16 (options at $2-3 mil more per year)
2B: Hill was at $5 mil, Johnson will probably be $6-7 area
3B: EE was $2.5 last year, Lawrie is team controlled
SS: Escobar was $2.9 last, $5 this though 2015
LF: Snider started the year, Snider & Thames are team controlled
CF: Davis was $2 mil, Rasmus will be around the same (first year arbitration)
RF: Bautista goes up by $6 mil this year then stays there through 2015/16.
DH: EE is $3.5 mil vs Juan Rivera $5.25 last year
IF: McDonald was $1.5 last year, McCoy is team controlled
OF: Cory Patterson was $900k, Ben Francisco will be around $2.5 mil (arbitration)
1B/3B: Nix was team controlled, Teahen is $5.5 mil
Minors: Hechavarria actually costs $250k less this year than last

So for hitters we see...
CA: +500k, 1B: $0, 2B: +$1-2 mil, 3B: -$2 mil, SS: +$2.1, LF: $0, CF: $0, RF: +$6, DH: -$1.75, IF: -$1, OF: +$1.6, UT: +$5, Minors: -$250k = +$11.7 million

For pitchers we see...
Starters...
Romero: $750k vs $5 mil ($7.5 for 13-15)
Morrow: $2.3 vs ~$5 mil (arbitration)
Cecil: team controlled
McGowan: $600k vs $450k
Drabek vs Alvarez: both team controlled

Relievers...
Santos: $1 mil vs Francisco's $4 mil
Villanueva: $1.4 vs ~$3 mil (arbitration)
Janssen: $1.1 vs $2 mil (arbitration) vs Rauch $3.5
Litsch: $0.8 vs $1 (just shy of) vs Frasor $3.5
Beck: team controlled vs Camp $2.5
Carreno: team controlled vs Dotel $3
Whatever: team controlled (most likely) vs Rzep (team controlled)

Pitching spread = -$4.7 million

Net spread: +$7 million but last year they also paid $5 mil to Wells so that spread is now down to $2 million vs last year. So about the rate of inflation for a team that should be better than last years.
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Glevin - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 07:24 AM EST (#249629) #
"It's a different era than the 1980's. Every team used to build roughly the same way. Now, if the Jays relied almost solely on their own system, they'd never win. That model is outdated. You need to be willing to trade prospects and you need to spend money on big free agents. Especially in the AL East. Incidentally, the 1980's Jays never won.

This is a joke, right?

1. You've heard of the Tampa Bay Rays maybe?"

I'm sorry, you can't take one extreme outlier and pretend that that is a method to winning that can be duplicated.(Incidentally, of the 9 Rays position players that played the most last year, only 3 were drafted.) It isn't. If the Jays want to win, they are not going to be able to do it just with prospects. It's silly to pretend otherwise. The Rays also had ten years in a row picking in the top-10 and do draft very well apart from that (their top-10 picking was actually not all that good). Texas? Not built from the draft at all. Their only key drafted players were Wilson, Kinsler, Holland, and Moreland. They traded Teixera for four prospects (including Andrus, Feliz, and Harrison) and, traded some of their top prospects to get Cliff Lee and are willing to spend big on free agents.


"2. Blue Jay wins by year, 1983-1993: 89, 89, 99 (lost ALCS), 86, 96, 87, 89 (lost ALCS), 86, 91 (lost ALCS), 96 (WS), 95 (WS.)"

I said the 1980's Jays never won and they never did. They won a lot of games because the model then was different. You simply can't win through the Rule V draft anymore. Free Agency has exploded and you need to be part of that. The differences in budgets have expanded enormously and you need to spend to win. The Yankees top paid player in 1990 was Mattingly making $2.5 million. 10 years later, they had ten players making more than that including three over $10 million. By 2010, the Yankees had 14 players over the $2.5 million mark including 4 over $20 million/year. The game has changed. Trying to compete today the same way you competed in 1985 is like trying to win a war with bows and arrows.
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gnor - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 07:59 AM EST (#249630) #
Good analysis. The way I figured it, I took their standing 2012 payroll commitments and then gave all the arb eligible player a 10% raise. That came out to $57 million, which is probably on the low side. My feeling is that the payroll could go up, or stay flat,  depending on whether or not AA makes a deal like Cespedes or a Matt Cain, that will add payroll.
I agree that in the long run, a $100-140 million payroll will be a necessity, seeing as how they never tank out and garner any top level picks, so they are going to have to overpay at some point. If a deal that makes sense doesn't materialize this year, I'm still OK. Almost all the pieces are in place now, and this would be a good year to let everybody play, improve, and come together as a team. They will see what everybody is capable of, and their top prospects will be one year closer to the major leagues, which will increase their trade value.
IMO, this team will surprise a lot of people this year, just the way they sit.


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gnor - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 08:36 AM EST (#249631) #
We won't compete this year, no matter what we do. They need to improve ERA, starters IP, RISP hitting, errors, and depth. I have been wrong before, however.
  • JP improved his D throughout the year, and you can expect that to continue. Mathis will help.
  • Rasmus has had an off season to rest, settle in, and get his head in shape.
  • Lawrie will have to make some adjustments at the plate, because they have an idea how to pitch him now. Does Murphy's Magic works once again?
  • Don't write off Adam Lind. He had a +WAR in his first year at first base, had a better dWAR than Texiera, and hit 26 homers in a "sub par" season.
  • I would sooner have Aaron Hill and John MacDonald back, but Kelly Johnson should hold his own.
  • No more Jayson Nix or JoJos either!
  • Whatever AA does, we will never see it coming.
The questions are why they play the games, right?

Did anybody else notice that later in the season EE played a pretty solid third base when he got the chance?

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gnor - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 08:58 AM EST (#249632) #
I think what he means is that if you are going to pay a high salary to one player, you had better have a good supply of low cost, controllable prospects to keep your salary down.
Interesting thought, though. Are the Yankees more likely to trade prospects for a player they need to win immediately, given their ability to compensate by shopping heavily on the free agent market? Do the Blue Jays expect a greater return for their prospects, given their aim of building a strong core of home-grown players?
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Chuck - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 08:58 AM EST (#249633) #

Don't write off Adam Lind... and hit 26 homers in a "sub par" season

No need for the quotes around sub par.

He's certainly young enough to turn things around, but his 1150 PAs over the past two seasons have looked like this:
2010  237/287/425, 90 OPS+
2011  251/295/439, 95 OPS+

Save for his one big season in 2009, he's been much closer to replacement level than league average.

I think the absence of an in-house Plan B will afford Lind the opportunity to reestablish himself, but even then the leash is going to be a short one due to a potential numbers game involving Thames, Snider and Encarnacion. Lind wouldn't be the first player with a sweet, lefthanded swing whose career was derailed by poor pitch recognition.
 

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John Northey - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 09:36 AM EST (#249634) #
Lind's big hope is how he was at the start last year. From opening day to June 18th he hit 339/384/633 over 198 PA. From June 19th to August 11th (198 PA) he hit 205/253/297. Then from August 12th to the end of the season he hit 197/233/380 (146 PA). Ugh.

What happened is the question. The answer (hopefully) is what he and others said it was. Fatigue. Knowing he'd play everyday at 1B and that many thought he couldn't handle it he worked out like mad. He took extra balls all the time, he did everything possible to look good out there. Then he forgot that the season is 162 games, not 18 (or 46).

Of note: his hottest stretch was April 25th to June 18th - 432/477/895 for a Bondsian 1.372 OPS. We tend to forget just how hot Lind got for awhile.

Encarnacion, on the other hand, got hot between June 24th and the end of the season - 286/361/508 vs 250/287/364 before that. Remember when we all thought AA made a mistake signing EE and did a genius move signing Lind long term?

EE played just 14 games at 3B from June 24th on (including the final 5 of the season with Lawrie out, hitting just 158/273/368 during that 5 game stretch), 22 before that. Pretty clear that when he has anything more demanding than 1B to play he just cannot handle it. His sOPS+ by position: 1B: 100, DH: 123, 3B: 89

IMO 2012 should be a lot better. EE will be a DH/backup 1B/LF/3B (hopefully just emergency). Lind will have a trainer watching his every move one hopes. If Lind can get more rest and not overtrain...if EE can DH and not be screwed up by his defense...then a major improvement will occur without a penny being spent.
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scottt - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 09:39 AM EST (#249635) #
Tampa got better through leveraging high draft picks. The Jays will always spend enough to never be in this situation.

The alternative is the Marlins strategy. Overspend on top free agent and compete for a short while then dump them for prospects and collect high ranking picks for a while.That's not in the cards either.

The Blue Jays philosophy is to maintain an average team on the field that is profitable.

The talks about being a few pieces short or not is misleading. Like it or not, the team isn't going to get better at RF,CF,SS,2B,3B. C could improve if D'Arnaud is an upgrade. That leaves just LF,1B and DH.

Fact is the Jays will have to trade some young players to accommodate the roster. Any acquisition would force a trade or just writing off some players.

Playoff will require bad performances from Boston or New-York, even when Tampa eventually falls out of the picture.
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CeeBee - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:07 AM EST (#249636) #
"Like it or not, the team isn't going to get better at RF,CF,SS,2B,3B. C could improve if D'Arnaud is an upgrade. That leaves just LF,1B and DH."
Are you saying Rasmus has no chance of being better next year then last? Or a full year of Lawrie doesn't improve us at the hot corner? J.P. has no chance of improving on his rookie season? Sorry but I really don't follow that line of reasoning. Even 2nd base has a decent chance of seeing better production then last year IMO.
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bpoz - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:11 AM EST (#249637) #
Optimism, Pessimism and Realism.

Of the 3, I have a hard time recognizing Realism.
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Geoff - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:32 AM EST (#249638) #
Olney has a column this morning about AA. (espn subscription req)

He argues that the Jays were probably closer to a $20MM bid than a $50MM bid for Darvish, basing this on his reputation for being honest and direct among his peers and not the type to create smokescreens for fans and the media. So when he says he has budget limitations, and his moves indicate that he has a very limited budget.

Also if the Jays were serious about getting Darvish, they wouldn't bid $50MM knowing that the bar had been set at $51,111,111.11 for Matsuzaka; they would have been sure to go slightly above that bar, not slightly below.

So if you're interested in plenty more conjecture, there you go.

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pubster - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:33 AM EST (#249639) #

The Jays should be better at CF next season than last. Rasmus SHOULD be an improvement over what Rasmus/Davis contributed last season.

Davis should also contribute more next season than what the Jays got from their 4th OF last season.

In the infield, I except Lawrie to outproduce what EE/Nix/Lawrie etc contributed to the team last season.

Kelly Johnson even in a bad year will do more offensively than what Hill provided last season.

IF Lind is platooned at 1B, I think 1B will also be more productive.

Thats a lot of improvements offensively. Mostly due to acquiring Rasmus and Lawrie.

Bautista, and Escobar may not play as well next year as they did last year, so those positions may not be as productive.

I dont know what will happen with DH/C. I expect Arencibia to be better, but doubt Mathis will contribute as much as Molina did last year.


Optimism? Pessimism? Realism?

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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:44 AM EST (#249640) #
John, that's a pretty optimistic take on Lind (IMO there is a chance he'll rebound, but I'm skeptical that an improved training regime is going to suddenly transform him back into his 2009 or early 2011 self). Either way, the Jays' options at 1B look pretty limited, at least for the first half of 2012. So there is a good chance AA plays Lind in an effort to recoup some value for a possible deadline deal (or trade next off-season). AA has a lot of patience and I don't see him dumping Lind for pennies on the dollar unless it's part of a series of moves with a strong net benefit to the team.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:47 AM EST (#249641) #
Also, Lind is relatively cheap ($5M per in 2012 and 2013), which gives him some appeal in light of the dreaded (dare I say the word) parameters. Of course, someone like Alonso or Rizzo would be even more appealing in that respect.
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pubster - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:51 AM EST (#249642) #

Sabathia is 30
Romero is 26

Sabathia costs MUCH more than Romero.

They both had comparable seasons last year.

Sabathia doesnt have to pitch against the Yankees lineup.

Romero is a better athlete.

Sabathia is a better bet to have a solid 2012 than Romero since he's been doing it longer.

Sabathia has had a better career, has a much better resume and puts up better K:BB ratios.

 

Would you do a straight up Sabathia for Romero trade right now?

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zeppelinkm - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 10:54 AM EST (#249643) #

I am just not certain Romero can keep out performing his numbers. But then again, he's an excellent fielder and good at holding runners on. Maybe these skills are not properly measured and he will continue to have his ERA out perform his FIP and what not. But Sabathia is a true ace. One of a handful in the game.

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smcs - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 11:53 AM EST (#249644) #
Lind's big hope is how he was at the start last year.

That, and Major League Baseball banning left handed relief pitching.
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92-93 - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 01:23 PM EST (#249645) #
Again pubster, context is important. No, the Yankees wouldn't trade Sabathia for Romero. And no, the Blue Jays wouldn't trade Romero for Sabathia.

Saying they had comparable seasons is way off base. The only thing similar was their ERA. Sabathia strikes out more hitters while giving up fewer walks and HRs.
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John Northey - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 01:30 PM EST (#249646) #
Oh, I know it was a very optimistic read on Lind. That was what I was going for. Showing that there are ways Lind could be very valuable - the potential does exist that, for a year or two, he could out hit Fielder.

::ducks::

OK, I know few will buy that, but look at Fielder's career so far by OPS+...
Years over 150 OPS+: 3
Years in the 130's: 2
Years at 110 or less: 2
Age: 28
Players traditionally have 1 or 2 years at a peak then play for a long time at their 'true' level and have 1 or 2 years at a bottom level. Fielder has had 1 bottom level (110) and 3 high level (150+) with 2 mid-level (130's). If I was predicting his future I'd see a lot more 130's than 150's in it.

Baseball-Reference's 10 most similar by age (counting just the 9 retired ones) were 6 points lower in OPS+ so far vs Fielder. For the ages of 28 and beyond they had an OPS+ of 124 - add 6 to that and you get 130. Now, is that worth $25 million a year? Not really.

Lind has one 140+ and 2 in the 90's for full-time seasons (500+ PA) plus a 100 & 77 for part time ones (300+ PA). His most similar had a 113 OPS+ through age 27 (7 points higher than Lind). Post age 27 they had a 115 (108 if you cut those 7 extra points). 3 of those were at 120+, just one sub-100 (Greg Walker at 81). This suggests Lind has a reasonable shot at being as good as Fielder from this point forward. Low odds (about 1 in 9) but a shot. He has about the same odds of being a washout.

Now, is it worth an extra $20 million to get a guy who is likely to out OPS+ who we have by around 15-20 points? Maybe. However, Lind clearly has issues with LHP so platooning him could cut that spread. Mix in the health factor (Lind working out too much, Fielder...well...) and one wonders about that $20 million spread and if it could go elsewhere for a better gain.
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melondough - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:22 PM EST (#249647) #

I think this may have been mentioned once before but I believe Toronto and Clevland are a great trading match.  Clevland is rumored to be looking for a 1st baseman and a LF.  Toronto needs Relief pitching.  Looking below at Clevland's 5 principal relievers, would you deal Snider or Thames for any?  What about Lind? I would consider Snider for Pestano.

Tony Sipp: Age 28 Lefty - 2011: 3.03ERA, 1.11WHIP, 62IP, 24BB, 57K. Arbitration eligible 2013-2015 ($437K in 2011). Note: 2011 his best of his 3 years

Joe Smith: Age 27 Righty - 2011: 2.01ERA, 1.09WHIP, 67IP, 21BB, 45K. Arbitration eligible 2012 and 2013 ($870K in 2011).  Note: 2011 carrer year

Vinnie Pestano: Age 26 Righty - 2011: 2.32ERA., 1.05WHIP, 62IP, 24BB, 84K.  Arbitration eligible 2014 and 2016 ($414K in 2011). Note: 2011 was his rookie year

Rafael Perez: Age 29 Lefty - 2011: 3.00ERA., 1.24WHIP, 63IP, 19BB, 33K. Arbitration eligible 2013 and 2013 ($1.3M in 2011). Note: 2011 his best in lat 4 years

Chris Perez: Age 26 Righty - 2011: 3.32ERA., 1.21WHIP, 60IP, 26BB, 39K. 36 Sv in 40 Opp.  Arbitration eligible 2012-2014 ($2.25M in 2011). Note: Huge drop off in K's and ERA from 2010

Durbin and Hermann made up the rest of the core but both had poor years.  There were 5 others who pitched in relief but none reached 20 IP (Hagadone, Judy, Germano, Putnam, & my favourite of the names...Kluber).

Pestano who is free agent elible in 2017 was drafed in the 20th round of 2006 but has had impressive stats every since Rookie Ball in 2007.  In 2010 Pestano's AAA stats was 1.55ERA, 1.06WHIP, 46IP, 14BB, 59K.

Snider for Pestano - If I am AA I would look closely at this type of a trade. 

Another option that I would love to see:

Pestano and Choo for Snider and Lind

Choo to Atlanta for Jurgins (Atl is looking for an elite OF like Adam Jones in Balt who they were rumored to be willing to trade Jurgins and Prado for). 

Choo and Jones are within $1M of each other (approx. $3m v.s. $4M) and both arbitration eligble in 2012 and 2013.  I realzie Jones is a CF and Choo a LF.

So AA get Pestano and Jurgins for Snider and Lind.  EE plays 1st and Beltran is signed to play partly in LF and partly DH.

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

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pubster - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:30 PM EST (#249648) #

Last year Romero allowed 73 earned runs in 225 innings. Opposing batters hit .216 off Romero.

Sabathia allowed 79 earned runs in 237 innings. Opposing batters hit .255 off Sabathia.

Sabathia has better K, and BB numbers. Romero is great at stopping the running game, is a better athlete, and had a much better ground ball rate than Sabathia.

Is it really off base to say they had comparable seasons?

 

 

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Dave Rutt - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:50 PM EST (#249649) #
In my opinion, yes. Romero posted a BABIP of .255 last year, well below his career average. There are pitchers who can sustain a low BABIP, but I'm not counting on Ricky being one until he does it for more than one year. As others have pointed out, his fielding independent numbers are not nearly as good as his ERA.
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TamRa - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:50 PM EST (#249650) #
"So AA get Pestano and Jurgins for Snider and Lind.  EE plays 1st and Beltran is signed to play partly in LF and partly DH."

You give up Snider and get back a reliever and a starter who, in this division, wouldn't be much if any better than Jesse Litsch?

I wouldn't do that deal straight up, let alone with Lind
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#249651) #
If AA really does have severe payroll restrictions going forward ($70-80M, that kind of thing), and the team truly isn't going to be competitive with NY/Bos/TB/Tex/LAA over the next couple of years, I wouldn't mind seeing AA doing a quasi-rebuild around the very young generation of players on the team like Lawrie and Alvarez and others coming through the system.

Essentially, what this would mean is trading high-value players like Bautista, Romero, Escobar, maybe Rasmus and Morrow, in exchange for a handful of premium prospects of Lawrie's calibre. Then he could rebuild around a massive core of young talent like Lawrie, Alvarez, d'Arnaud, Gose, Marisnick, the slew of promising pitching prospects in the minors, along with the newly acquired blue-chip players. This would enable the Jays to have the requisite critical mass of cheap talent to - in effect - win on the cheap (if this is the reality of the situation).

I would rather see AA do this than get desperate and start trading his best prospects for players like Garza or Gio with the team still falling short - at which point you've got a decimated farm system and still no playoffs in sight.
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melondough - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 02:58 PM EST (#249652) #

You give up Snider and get back a reliever and a starter who, in this division, wouldn't be much if any better than Jesse Litsch?

Litsch...seriously?  I think you are way off base on this one Tamra.

I wouldn't do that deal straight up, let alone with Lind

Wow you must really love Snider


 

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melondough - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:02 PM EST (#249653) #

Rothenthal is reporting Beltran is down to Cardinals, Jays, and Indians.  Well we all know that if the Jays were actually in it their name would not be in the rumor.  So is it another case of the Jays being used?  I know AA is looking for a middle of the order bat but we have gone through these hopes too many times for me to get sucked in again.  I think the only team truely in on him are the Cardinals and the Jays and Indians are being used.

 I would love it but I will be shocked if it happens.  Someone please shock me! 

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Mike D - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:11 PM EST (#249654) #
On ESPN's website, Jim Bowden has proposed three hypothetical Garza trades, with the #1 option being to the Jays for Drabek and Gose.  I'd think twice about it, and would probably do that.
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ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:22 PM EST (#249655) #
Rothenthal is reporting Beltran is down to Cardinals, Jays, and Indians.

If there's any truth to that rumour, it must be a hard decision. One team just won the WS, is in the US, and plays on grass. The other two are the Jays and the Indians. There would have to be one monster of a salary differential, and I don't mean a few million a year, in order to have Beltran in a Jays' uniform. He turned down a trade to the Indians last year.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:27 PM EST (#249656) #
Garza has a career ERA+ of 109 and is two years from free agency. He's arb-eligible and earned almost $6M in 2011. He would be a solid addition, but do you want to be giving up Gose (who could be an All-Star CF) for him? Tough call. How about McGuire, Knecht and Nolin?
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ayjackson - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:27 PM EST (#249657) #
I agree cbdc, but I heard that StL is offering 2 years at $8m per year, so maybe there is a big difference.
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timpinder - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:39 PM EST (#249658) #
Beltran doesn't make any sense for the Jays. If the Jays had managed to get Darvish or Latos and had acquired a legit middle of the order 1B, then Beltran would be a nice addition to a possible contender.
However, it appears the Jays are still rebuilding, so why would they spend money on an older outfielder when they have Snider and Thames that need to play regularly and develop?
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:44 PM EST (#249659) #
I don't think AA has ruled out contending in 2012 and 2013. The team should be better than last year by addition (Lawrie, Alvarez, Santos, Rasmus, McGowan, Carreno, Johnson) and subtraction (Patterson, Nix, Rivera, Hill, Reyes, Davis not starting). It's not inconceivable that with a couple of further additions (Beltran, a 2/3 starter, maybe a reliever) the Jays could be in the playoff hunt. Plus, with all their prospects, they would seem to be in a good position to make a deadline deal to further bolster the club.

I'm not saying contention is likely, but it is possible. Beltran would help on that front.
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85bluejay - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 03:55 PM EST (#249660) #
I think Beltran to the Jays is a good match for both & I hope it gets done - A great bat to hit in 3 spot ahead of Bautista, doesn't cost any players/picks, can mitigate injury problems by resting in the DH spot esp. against LHP with EE @ 1st, good trade chip if team not contending/Snider ready, allows team to sell high on Thames
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85bluejay - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:00 PM EST (#249661) #
To give up Gose I would want somebody better than Garza - I think Gose is going to a big star
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rfan8 - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:03 PM EST (#249662) #

I never realized how hard as a fan it is to be in on every player.

Beltran would be a pretty big upgrade in LF and would be around for 2-3 years so he would be in the "contention" window.  Probably means Travis is dealt though and I just don't see it.

 

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Glevin - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:19 PM EST (#249663) #
Available pitchers are dropping like flies. Danks re-signs and Gio Gonzalez goes to Oakland for a bunch of good prospects.
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JB21 - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:21 PM EST (#249664) #
Glad we didn't get Gio. The A's got a LOT for him.
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Mylegacy - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:41 PM EST (#249665) #
"I think Gose is going to be a big star."

So do I...but what do I know...

I thought Snider would be a middle of the line-up righty killing monster by now. I thought Drabek would at least a mid-rotation starter by now. I thought Bautista was a very good fill in guy when we got him. I thought we'd make a "value" bid on Yu not a "competitive" bid... Oh well I was right on one of those things.

AA got us Escobar, and Lawrie and Morrow and Santos - and I think all four of those guys are major pieces of a contending team. All four came as a surprise - all four were not known to be readily available. Beltran is the best hitter not named Prince out there...does that mean that AA has absolutely no interest and is looking at guys so far below OUR radar that some of us will have to look their names up in BA's Almanac before we realize what a brilliant move AA just made?

AA doesn't have the money we'd hope he has - pity - seriously a pity. BUT - AA has at least 30 or 40 prospects that most observers are all a flutter over...I trust AA's judgement on which shiny piece to trade for which shiny piece. Marcum for Lawrie, Gonzlez for Escobar, Brandon for Brandon, Santos for Molina - seems like good judgement by AA so far. AA will not be on the winning side of all his trades - all the time - BUT I'm convinced he can build us a stealth winner - a stealth contender.

What I'm not convinced of is will Rogers ever let AA have a payroll of $120 to $150 to pay to KEEP the team contending as our young, cheap core becomes expensive as do the few free agent additions necessary to keep our team up there as contenders. I HONESTLY BELIEVE that if we the fans BANKROLL it BEFORE AA is allowed to invest it - that Rogers will let AA invest the best part of the fans increased expenditures in shiny bits for the team. BUT I HAVE NO ILLUSIONS that WE THE FANS will have to put the bums in seats before Rogers puts matching dollars from its obscene income into the Jays coin chest.

Hopefully, at this time of peace on earth and goodwill to men - we can forgive Rogers and continue to back AA. AND - just to be on the safe side - we better all buy season's tickets - that is the ONLY SURE way of the team getting more money - if it comes from US! Since Rogers is a business not a sports mad owner operator - what other reality could we expect.

Peace on earth...is that really too much to hope for! Sigh.





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CeeBee - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 04:47 PM EST (#249666) #
Ditto on Gio. Maybe it will work for the Nats but I don't think it would have been good for the Jays to give up that kind of haul unless we were really close to contending and desperate for a mid rotation starter.
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Glevin - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 05:01 PM EST (#249667) #
The NL East is becoming a powerhouse division with the Marlins and Nationals spending.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 05:17 PM EST (#249668) #
I'm glad AA is being patient, sticking to the plan, and not forcing moves for the sake of making moves.
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melondough - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 05:27 PM EST (#249669) #

As per John Sickels ranking done Dec 20th Nationals prospects in the Gio deal ranked as follows: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/20/2650433/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2012

Cole #3: B+ (RHP)

Peacock #4: B (RHP)

Norris #6: B (Catcher)

Milone #9 B- (LHP)

Using his Blue Jays rankings done Nov 30th, I think a comparable haul would be: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/11/30/2601596/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2012

Syndegaard #4: B+ (RHP) or Nicolina #5: B+ (LHP)

McGuire #7: B+ (RHP)

Jimenez #10: B- (C)

Sanchez #11: B- (RHP)

I guess it would be more fair to say Jimenez, Sanchez, and any two of the following B+ rated pitchers -AA's choice (Syndegaard, Nicolina, Norris, McGuire,Hutchinson).  Wow are the Jays ever deep.

I guess I would have considered it for McGuire, Hutchinson, Jimenez, and Sanchez.

 

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sam - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 05:58 PM EST (#249672) #
I'm not the biggest fan of Carlos Beltran. I find it curious that management would consider Beltran given his position and past injury issues. I imagine Beltran will take at least $10-15 a year over two to three years. I'd prefer the team to earmark those dollars elsewhere. I also think the market for starting pitchers with control is slim and expensive.

I'd like the Jays to acquire Anthony Rizzo. He fits in well with what the Jays are trying to do and exhibits many qualities the Jays are looking for. Rizzo is an athlete with plenty of projection. He has high OBP and power numbers. I think one of Snider/Thames and McGuire would be worth it.

This would be a young team, but with a lot of talent.

Escobar SS
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Lind DH
Lawrie 3B
Rizzo 1B
Arencibia C
Johnson 2B
Snider/Thames/Francisco/Davis LF

Teahan, Davis, Francisco, Mathis

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
Drabek

McGowan
Villanueva
Carreno
Janssen
Perez
Mike Gonzalez?
Santos

I'd go watch that team. I think there are starts there for Hutchison and Jenkins and McGowan as the season progresses. And there are innings for Beck, Magnuson, and Farquhar in the bullpen.

It's a young, but exciting team. You probably look at all those young players and assume half probably don't perform to expectations, some do, and maybe one or two exceed those expectations. So maybe Cecil wins 15 games, but Alvarez burns out in early August. Or Rasmus hits 20 HRs, but Lawrie hits .250. All in all, it might not be a playoff team, but it's probably a .500 club with another year of development for the likes of Rizzo, Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, Drabek, Lawrie, Rasmus, Snider/Thames. The aggregate development of all those guys probably means the team is better than last year.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 06:05 PM EST (#249673) #
I would like to be a fly on the wall in AA's war room during discussions of Rizzo. He seems to be quite talented, but BA does say he needs to iron out "the length and uppercut in his swing." AA's scouts seem to have been more right than wrong during his tenure, so I would be interested in hearing their views.
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TamRa - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 06:27 PM EST (#249674) #
it's closer than you think:

SO/BB
Litsch - 2.01
Jurrijens - 1.98

SO/9
Litsch - 5.2
Jurrijens - 6.2

BB/9
Litsch - 2.6
Jurrijens - 3.1

H/9
Litsch - 9.3
Jurrijens - 8.5

WHIP
Litsch - 1.31
Jurrijens - 1.28

And that's with Listch's numbers including the ugly 2010 rebound from TJS and Jair pitching in the NL

Jurrijens IS better, but not by all that much. The reliever you mentioned looked good too, but he's just a reliever.

However, that's not even really the main point. If I list the Jays potential starters (in 2012) by my ROUGH estimation of their actual talent (which is not always the same as results)

Romero
Morrow
McGowan
Alvarez
Drabek
Cecil
Villianueva/Listch
McGuire (but not until second half at best)
Carreno
Hutchison (late season at best)
Perez

then the VERY highest I'd put Jurrijens on that list is slightly ahead of Cecil. That's not the kind of pitcher we need more of. We have plenty of options who have similar ability and some of them which we really do need to see what we have (unless he's a total train wreck, Drabek NEEDS a significant number of major league starts this year, for instance, in order for the team to know if he's an asset or not).

In that context, i don't think we need Jair here at all, at any price. Not because he lacks value but because he lacks value TO US.
(unless the idea is to flip him or trade some off the other candidates in a significant deal)

And yes, i DO think very highly of Snider.

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TamRa - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 06:45 PM EST (#249678) #
This would enable the Jays to have the requisite critical mass of cheap talent to - in effect - win on the cheap (if this is the reality of the situation).

I think we already have that.

One must, of course, make some assumptions BUT

3b - set for six years if not more
SS - set for 4 years and several interesting possibilities (Thon, Lopes, etc) in the low minors for the years after, IF you dismiss Adeniy. If you like Heck then you are set for seven years (one of esco, six of hech) at ss ans Esco...

2B - ...succeeds Johnson and this position is set for 4 years - also with low-minors guys you can hope develop into a worthy successor.

RF - set through 2016 with Bautista (if he doesn't end up DHing in the end which I think he will (and with multiple options to succeed him if not push him out of the field

CF - Rasmus has 3 years left and Gose doesn't need three, Marisnick probably doesn't

LF - Between Snider and Thames and the potential shuffling when Gose arrives...I'm not worried.

DH  - always a spot where you can plug in parts as necesary, not the sort of position where you put a "core piece" (unless it becomes Bautista in a couple of years)

1B - the question mark. Either Lind rebounds in 2012 or you have to address it, but with ton's of excess SP it's easy enough to find a Rizzo-type opportunity to fill it.

C- needs no explanation - good for 7 years or more

SP:
Romero holds a spot through 2016
Alvarez has six years coming
Drabek has six years coming
Cecil has, i think, four more
Morrow has 2
McGowan has 1

McGuire is 1, one and a half, years away
Hutch no more than 2
Jenkins (bottom of rotation but still) no more than 2
Nicolinio, Syndergaard, Wojo all in 3-4 years
Sanchez, Nolin, Cardona, maybe Norris in 4-5 years


fifteen or more options to shuffle through by the time Romero's contract is up - without a single import  from any source

the presumptive closer is in place for six years and the bullpen is often filled out buy excess SP - plus if you do have to make economical; signings, the bullpen and the bench are the place to do it (see the Rays 2011 bullpen)

If there were suddenly a rule in place that no team could acquire any player not currently in their system for the next five years, I'd be pretty confident about the Blue Jays' future

Of course, that doesn't mean that guys we THINK will be good-to-great major leaguers couldn't bust - any of them could. but that's a cvhance any team on a limited budget takes.

I'm only speaking within the context of "if we never spend more than $80 million, how will we do" - I don't think that future is bleak.

(but I really really hope that turns out not to be the ceiling)
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 09:28 PM EST (#249687) #
What do you do with Morrow if he is just soso at the ALL Star break? I would trade him.
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Landomar - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 11:17 PM EST (#249690) #

One thing I'd still like to see is a mult-year deal for Kelly Johnson this offseason.  I really like both Johnson and Escobar, and would be happy to plan on using those two for the next three or four years.

If d'Arnaud and Gose continue to develop as hoped, we should have a nice outlook for 2013.  We might have something like:  

  1. Escobar - SS
  2. Rasmus - LF
  3. Bautista - RF
  4. (TBA) - 1B/DH
  5. Lawrie - 3B
  6. (TBA) - 1B/DH
  7. Johnson - 2B
  8. d'Arnaud - C
  9. Gose - CF

Maybe Lind keeps one of those 1B/DH spots, but I don't really trust him to be consistently good.  My plan for Lind would be to wait for his next extremely hot streak, and then try to sell high on him (if a good deal can be found out there).  Let Cooper/Encarnacion play quite a bit at 1B in 2012 if need be; I'd actually like to see a bit more of Cooper at the major league level, as I think there could be some value there (either as a useful bat for us or as a trade chip).

In general, we should end up having a surplus of young, talented, MLB position players soon, which could help us create attractive trade packages for elite pitching (or a Joey Votto type; hey, I can dream).  The good news is that we have AA as our GM, and at this point, I'm expecting crazy stealth / ninja trades on a semi-regular basis from him. 

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Mylegacy - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 11:29 PM EST (#249692) #
Kelly for three years - madness, madness. (Unless he's prepared to be in a 2nd base, 3rd base, LF, 1st, DH back-up role - in which case I'm OK with it).

I bet my best bottle of 18 year old single malt that Hechy FORCES Escobar to 2nd and Kelly to the scrap heap by JULY! You can count ON IT!

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Mick Doherty - Thursday, December 22 2011 @ 11:44 PM EST (#249694) #

I think the potential for enormous amusement here on Da Box is highest if Mr. Lind spends 2012 hitting .320 with 35 bombs and playing Gold Glove 1B.  The rush to proclaim him the Next Great Jay would be huge, and EVERYone here would claim that they "knew it all along" or at least "believed it was possible."

Helll's bells, those things would be said if he hits .270 with 25 bombs ...

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TamRa - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 12:59 AM EST (#249695) #
On Lind, John pointed this out earlier (something i mentioned a few times during the season)

"Lind's big hope is how he was at the start last year. From opening day to June 18th he hit 339/384/633 over 198 PA.:

I certainly think it's POSSIBLE Lind could still give us more than one season with an OPS over .900, I will say for the record now that I would not be even mildly surprised by that.

I'm not, however, willing to go so far as to say I expect it. I do expect .800+ though/
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Richard S.S. - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 01:07 AM EST (#249696) #

I agree, we need a fit and healthy Adam Lind to play 1B for us this year.   I would be delighted but shocked if he had more than a solid year: .270 / .325 / .450 with 25+ bombs and 80+ RBI.   Anything less is unacceptable.   Fielder on a 5 year, $125.0 MM contract makes so much sense. I don't think A.A. has looked far enough ahead to see when the next high impact player is available (Josh Hamilton will be re-signed).   Joey Votto (in 2014 at age 30, wanting a Teixeira or better contract) is close, but not quite that.   Besides, Adam Lind plays a decent LF, a lot better than Thames.

If we can trade Adeiny Hechavarria (as a stud prospect) for a Front-Line Starter, he's gone.   In 4 years time, D.J. Thon Jr., Christian Lopes, Dewal Lugo, Gustavo Pierre, Jorge Vega-Rosado, Ryan Goins, Andrew Burns, Shane Opitz or Jon Diaz will be the next bright thing at SS to take Escobar's postion.   Hechavarria's value at this time is at his highest.  If he cannot hit as he should, his value will plummet, as no-hit Shortstop are legion.   You do not move Escobar (29) to 2B, you do that with a younger player or someone not too bright, like A-Rod.   I would like to see Kelly Johnson here on a 3 year contract, maybe by then, we'll have good 2B prospects in our minors.

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bpoz - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 10:25 AM EST (#249704) #
I was going to post these stats for 2011 earlier.
--------- AB HR RBI OPS
Pujols. 579 37 99 906
Feilder 569 38 120 981
Lind... 499 26 87 734

I don't consider myself an expert in analyzing the OPS number, I think it is the BB that hurts Lind.

So Pujols & Fielder are definitely elite 1B, 2 of 10 by my rough count. Do others agree that Lind is in the next lower level? And also would Bauxites agree that Overbay is at the 3rd & lowest level.
I can live with 1B at level 2, he would still be dangerous. IMO a line up where all the positions are dangerous ie no easy outs can be affordable & quite dangerous. OK, JPA may be an easy out based on various stats but he was definitely dangerous.
Remember WAMCO, Borders was an easy out, but the others could cover for him.
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Jonny German - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 11:00 AM EST (#249708) #
In 2009 Adam Lind was a star-level hitter. Every other year he's been much worse than Lyle Overbay's career average. Putting him in a tier higher than Overbay is widly optimistic.
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zeppelinkm - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 11:03 AM EST (#249709) #
I don't want anything to do with Jair Jurrjens in the AL East.  We have better (or at least very comparable) in-house options that we don't have to give up anything for.
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Chuck - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 11:46 AM EST (#249713) #

So Pujols & Fielder are definitely elite 1B, 2 of 10 by my rough count. Do others agree that Lind is in the next lower level?

Better to consider first baseman on a continuum rather than in arbritrary stratifications. Ranked by 2011 OPS+:

DET Cabrera 181
MIL Fielder 164
CIN Votto 156
BOS Gonzalez 155
STL Pujols 150
WAS Morse 147
CHW Konerko 144
TB Kotchman 128
PHI Howard 125
CHC Pena 123
COL Helton 119
ATL Freeman 118
KC Hosmer 118
HOU C. Lee 117
NYY Teixeira 117
FLO Sanchez 113
LAA Trumbo 113
PIT D. Lee 111
LAD Loney 110
SEA Smoak 104
CLE LaPorta 97
TOR Lind 95

And this doesn't include part-time first basemen Napoli 171, Butler 125, D. Murphy 125, Young 124, and Reynolds 119.

Not only is Lind not even close to being a league average offensive first baseman, he's not even a league average hitter across all positions.

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bpoz - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 12:00 PM EST (#249715) #
OK, so I am wrong, but I irrationally want my 1B to get RBIs. I watched Overbay take BBs or an out by a bad umpiring call and the following hitters could not get the run in.

So I still prefer Lind. I know bad judgement.
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92-93 - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 12:42 PM EST (#249719) #
Here's the thing, bpoz - if Lyle Overbay had ever spent an entire season batting 4th like Lind did he too would likely back his way into an 85+ RBI season.
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John Northey - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 01:29 PM EST (#249721) #
Thanks for the list Chuck. Seems clear if you want a league average or better 1B you need a 115-125 OPS+ (boy is Howard overpaid). 140+ is All-Star level, 160+ is tops in the league.

Fielder, however, if you go through his stats should not be expected to produce over a 130 level during the duration of his next contract. He could be a 150+ monster ala Pujols but odds are against that. Lind should be able to be a 110-120 OPS+ hitter based on comparable talent. Not great, but acceptable until someone better comes along.

Given that, how do you add a stack more offense at 1B? Cooper is unlikely to ever be more than a 120 OPS+ hitter, no other hitting prospects are showing talent above that in the system. The Jays really need to find some pure offensive talents. Fielder won't be it though - they'll hunt for it I'm sure.
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Mike Green - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 02:37 PM EST (#249729) #
Using OPS+ and ignoring defence is the most favourable way of evaluating Lind.  He has a career wRC+ of 104 (OPS+ of 106).  He is a below average defensive first baseman.  If you are trying to compete and cannot acquire an alternative, you platoon him with Encarnacion (who also backs up Lawrie) and find yourself a full-time DH who can actually hit.  The Jays of the eighties had a hole at DH and filled it nicely with Cliff Johnson.  Mike Napoli (like Johnson, a catcher who could hit) would have been good, and if you can get your paws on another like him...
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Chuck - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 02:39 PM EST (#249730) #

Lind should be able to be a 110-120 OPS+ hitter

I think should is too optimistic. I'd go with may.

His OPS+ from 2007-2011: 77, 100, 141, 90, 95.

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bpoz - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 05:25 PM EST (#249735) #
Lind's OPS IS terrible. I thought with the extra 70-80 ABs he could have 30HR & 100RBI, that used to be considered a good season. His OPS would still be weak.

Victor Martinez in 2011 had only 12Hr, but 103Rbi, 46BB & 51SO for a solid season. He does play multiple positions. His 2010 in Boston got him the big contract, 20HR but only 79Rbi.

Thanks everyone for your contributions.

So Lind is easily replaced and his trade value is not that much.
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TamRa - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 10:58 PM EST (#249744) #
"So Lind is easily replaced and his trade value is not that much."


Not so fast.

Here's a list of the 26 MLB first basemen with as many as 400 PA, ranked by OBP:

Cabrera - not available
Votto - not available
Fielder - can't file under "easy" to obtain
Gonzalez - not available
Kenerko - 10 and 5 player, likely veto
Helton - not available
Kotchman
Pujols - not available
Murphy
Butler - unlikely to be available
Morse
Pena
Sanchez
Freeman - not available
Howard - not available
Texeria - not available
Looney
Hosmer - not available
Lee
Smoak - not available
Morland
Overbay
Huff
Lind
Dunn
Trumbo

so let's see what's left:

Murphy
Morse - obvious career year, even the nats say LaRoche will be their 1B next year.
Pena - free agent, seemingly not in demand anywhere - why?
Sanchez
Loney
Lee - Free agent, seemingly not in demand, why?
Morland - Same OPS as Lind, in a much friendlier park
Overbay - could have signed him and didn't, for good reason
Huff - I assume none of us would seriously want him anymore
Dunn - we can all agree this is a disaster contract, yes?
Trumbo - ROY and worse OBP than Lind. not sure they would deal him.

So, in theory, Murphy, Loney, and Sanchez. Maybe Trumbo. Assuming the price is reasonable and we actually want them. I, for one, don't think any of them are a major upgrade on Lind, OBP or no.

there's also Morales whom, if healthy, i'd be ok with giving a go.

but the overall point remains - "easily replaced" ain't necessarily so.
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BlueJayWay - Friday, December 23 2011 @ 11:12 PM EST (#249746) #
Don't forget it's first base.  The far edge of the defensive spectrum.  A lot of players could be moved there if need be.
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Mick Doherty - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 12:53 AM EST (#249748) #

[Napoli ...] a catcher who could hit

Well, yes, but to my admittedly untrained eye, a hell of a catcher who can hit. Defensively and particularly working iwth the young pitchers,  Nap was one of the keys to the Rangers second pennant.

Speaking of the Rangers, I see Mitch Moreland got a bit of a derogatory mention here in this thread. So this is as good a time as any for me to admit this -- I've seen a lot of Moreland here for the Rangers, and while the results have, to date, been (at best) mixed, I completely believe that he IS going to win a(t least one) batting title someday. Forget the stats, he looks like a natural at the plate. I know, I know, Gregg Jefferies, Dave Magadan, Glenn Braggs ... let the slicing and dicing of my soothsaying begin! 

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TamRa - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 03:22 AM EST (#249749) #
"Don't forget it's first base. The far edge of the defensive spectrum. A lot of players could be moved there if need be."

Premium hitters usually don't like to do that if they can talk their way out of it, and unless you are taking on Carlos Lee or something, I don't see a ton of candidates to do that anyway.

Looking down the list, and noting that I've already spoken of Morse and Butler, I don't see a qualified hittier, whose available, who's a reasonable candidate to acquire and move to 1B who's OPS in 2011 was .825 or better.

Nick Swisher at .822 is probably the best i nthat regard. He's hit better, and he's played 1B - but why would Yanks deal him to us? and who would we give up we'd want them to have?

After that I don't see another guy util I get to Mark Reynolds (ugh) and after him it's Lee who hit about the same as EE (for a heck of a lot more money).

I don't see it.
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Chuck - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 08:11 AM EST (#249751) #

I've seen a lot of Moreland here for the Rangers, and while the results have, to date, been (at best) mixed, I completely believe that he IS going to win a(t least one) batting title someday

High praise for a 26-year old with a .258 lifetime average. Can we call you Mylegacy South? Do you have a taste for single malt?

Forget the stats, he looks like a natural at the plate.

And very often, so does Adam Lind. I know Magpie pursued this subject in the past. Why do lefthanded hitters and throwers just look so much better? I don't dispute that they do. I think that's part of the reason we get sucked in.

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Chuck - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 08:19 AM EST (#249752) #

I don't see a qualified hittier, whose available

Lind's replacement wouldn't necessarily have to be someone else's starting first baseman. Maybe somebody like a Brandon Belt.

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Landomar - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 08:58 AM EST (#249753) #

One easy way to replace Lind would be to just use Encarnacion at 1B, and let somebody else DH.

For his career, Encarnacion is .260/.336/.453.  Lind is .267/.316/.466.

In general, Encarnacion has been much more consistent from season to season, while Lind's numbers are usually worse than his career line (as they are propped up a bit by his one monster season). Of couse, Lind's elite season also raises hopes that he'll do it again. I'm not confident that he will, but you never know.

Right now, if another team offers something good for Lind, I'd have no hesitation to move him. If not, then we might as well keep him for 2012 and see how he does. Perhaps the best solution would be a Lind/Encarnacion platoon at 1B (they both have significant splits), while still trying to find a superior hitter for the DH spot.

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bpoz - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 11:10 AM EST (#249754) #
AA has already said that the July trading deadline is or can be significant. Let me analyse this newer concept.

1) We will still have buyer/seller roles staying the same based on playoff probability.
2) The new CBA changes many things. Arb can only be offered at an estimated $12mil. So EE & KJ (if 2012 is a 1 year contract) and players like that will not be offered arb for picks. IMO this increases the odds of trading them. If hot & someone has a need at that position, how much would they pay.

Re: Rasmus trade, Dotel & Fraser were worth a draft pick each, so AA really must have wanted Rasmus. St Louis wanted to improve on their pitching which due to injuries or some other factor causing 3-4 pitchers under performing.

A hot Doyle Alexander for an unknown.

Detroit & St Louis had a need for a hot/quality but temporary SP. Might I suggest that AA go outside the organization to meet that need in July and obtain the necessary needed pieces to satisfy his needs.

I am still unsure of M Teahen's role.
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Magpie - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 01:01 PM EST (#249755) #
A hot Doyle Alexander for an unknown.

Ah, but Doyle wasn't even remotely hot in August 1987. He was 5-10, 4.13 and he was three weeks away from his 37th birthday. He'd gone 11-10, 4.14 the year before. The Tigers surely assumed they were getting someone to fill out the back end of the rotation. They couldn't have expected what he actually delivered.

So they gave up a 20 year old kid they'd taken in the 22nd round two years earlier. Who, in his second year as a pro, had gone 4-10, 5.68 at AA (86 K and 81 BB in 130 IP.) There wasn't a whole lot of reason to expect him to win more than 200 games in the majors.

The lesson, as always - in baseball, you just never know.
[ Reply to This ]
Mick Doherty - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 02:15 PM EST (#249756) #

to win more than 200

And to save more than 150 ... only man to do both!

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Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 24 2011 @ 05:35 PM EST (#249757) #

Welcome to the new "Moneyball".

There will be only three ways of gaining Draft Picks.  

1) The first 6 picks in the 1st Supplemental Round, and the first 6 Picks in the 2nd Supplemental Round, may be traded (not for strictly cash), but trades must occur in-season and cannot occur offseason.

2) You are unable to sign your picks in the 1st, 1st Supplemental, 2nd, 2nd Supplemental, 3rd, 3rd Supplemental rounds.

3) You need Free Agents, with expiring contract, that had been making at least $15.0-ish MM, on your team.   No more $40.00 MM salary teams.

There is now a value in Big Ticket contracts.   To offer an estimated $12 .5 MM Qualifying Offer to your Free Agent, to gain a draft pick there by, there needs to be someone with a big ticket salary on your Team.   Trade for Carlos Lee anyone?   To sign or trade for someone, in-season or off-season, making $15.0 plus MM on a expiring contract becomes the new "Moneyball".

 

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bpoz - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 09:41 AM EST (#249764) #
Under the new rules St Louis could have offered Arb to Pujols and if he signed else where they get a draft pick.
But any team acquiring him during or after the year would not get the pick if Arb is offered & declined. Is this correct? Please help.

Fantastic new topic Richard.

Merry Christmas everyone.
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bpoz - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 09:56 AM EST (#249765) #
The lottery picks have a value...obviously. So does the PTBNL.

If some team had a wealth of too many good players to protect for the rule 5, then there may be a match somewhere.

When will the lottery take place?

If Snider, Thames & Sierra all fail to make the team out of ST would someone be willing to trade a lottery pick or even a lottery chance for any of them. The trade may have to be balanced better for it it work. Also the same pick can be traded more than once.

This can be very creative.
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timpinder - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 10:50 AM EST (#249766) #
Take Bautista's contract. If you disregard the option year, he's due to make $14 million annually 2012-2015. Would it make sense now for a team to backload a contract a little to up the final year, ensuring you get the draft pick??? For example, Bautista would make $13 million 2012-2014, but $17 million in his contract year. Will we start seeing teams do this? Because as it stands now the Jays might not get a pick if/when Bautista departs because he's due only $14 million in his final year.
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85bluejay - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 11:54 AM EST (#249769) #

You don't need FA making 15m to get compensation - In order to get compensation, the player must be with the team for the entire season and the team must offer him  a 1 year GTD.contract that matches the average of the top 125 players - next year I think it will be 12.5m - so it doesn't matter what salary your FA has, if you extend him that 1 year contract, then you will be compensated if he signs elsewhere. 

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timpinder - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 12:39 PM EST (#249770) #
Ahhhh. Got it, thanks!
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 01:59 PM EST (#249772) #

My mistake.   Let it read:

...

3) You need Free Agents, with expiring contracts of $13.0 MM or more (or they might accept Qualifying Offer).   The Free Agent must be acquired in the offseason, spending at least the full year with the Team.   No more $40.00 MM salary Teams.

There is now a value in Big Ticket contracts.   To offer an estimated $12 .5 MM Qualifying Offer to your Free Agent, to gain a draft pick there by, there needs to be someone with a big ticket salary on your Team, for the whole year.   Trade for Carlos Lee anyone?   To sign or trade for someone, each off-season, making $13.0 plus MM on a expiring contract becomes the new "Moneyball".   Two things will happen, someone else signs them, or, they accept the offer.

 

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Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 25 2011 @ 02:19 PM EST (#249773) #

You don't need FA making 15m to get compensation...

I disagree.   Your free agent has the choice of accepting the Qualifying Offer (for a limited time - check new CBA for details) if he doesn`t think he can get more money elsewhere.   Logic dictates he should be making more $$$$$ than the Offer, so as to seek Free Agency.   It should also be mentioned, you should be willing to take the Player back.   That QO is Guarenteed.

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hypobole - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 12:38 AM EST (#249776) #
Carl Crawford made $10 MM before signing with Boston. Jayson Werth's final year with Philly paid him $7.5 MM. C. J. Wilson made $7 MM this past season. All these players could have been offered 1 yr contracts by their clubs with minimal chances of acceptance.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 01:55 AM EST (#249777) #
Carl Crawford made $10 MM before signing with Boston. Jayson Werth's final year with Philly paid him $7.5 MM. C. J. Wilson made $7 MM this past season. All these players could have been offered 1 yr contracts by their clubs with minimal chances of acceptance.

I understand what you`re saying, if they were Free Agents after 2012.   If you know your Free agent is seeking more than the sum required for the Qualifying Offer, then by all means go ahead.   Not all Clubs (especially the Blue Jays) have Free Agents in 2012 seeking (with assurance of getting) more than the mandatory Q.O.   Not all Clubs have Big Ticket Free Agents for 2012 that will still receive more than the Q.O.

The whole object of the New Moneyball - for the Blue Jays - and other Teams, exists in the new CBA.   Toronto has its own 1st Round Pick (17), which they might lose, for signing Prince Fielder and a 1st Round Pick (22), which they cannot lose, for not signing Beede (lying about his shoulder status).   Toronto also has three 1st Supplemental round picks.   If A.A. wants to go Big on signing everyone, at any cost, he`ll pay 100% tax on the overage and lose 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014.   Signing one year Big Ticket contracts and trading (in the offseason) for Big Ticket players with expiring contracts might get Toronto a 1st Round pick in 2013, possibly in 2014, replacing picks that A.A. loses in 2012.  

In the past, Boston, New York, and, other Teams usually still had 1st Round Picks even after signing 1, 2, 3 or more Type A Free Agents.   They`ll still have that happen under the new CBA.   My idea is to get Teams, without Big Ticket contracts, and a dependance on the draft, some way to keep it up.  How about give Roy Oswalt 1 year $15.0 MM, then after the season, a Q.O. brings back a 1st Round pick or Roy Oswalt for 1 year at reduced cost.

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scottt - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 06:09 AM EST (#249778) #
The other part of that is that free agents who would sign a $13M contract have to be traded by the deadline even if the return is mediocre. Or you get nothing at all.

I don't see AA losing picks in the draft. Picks are protected for 2 years now. It's OK to use a protected pick to keep a hard to sign player away from the Yankees.
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bpoz - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 08:54 AM EST (#249779) #
Roy Owsalt is a great example, 1 year signing that if good will get a long term deal as a FA.

A possibility for the Jays is McGowan & Morrow have to prove a few things. Mainly that they are good enough to keep their rotation spot for a few years past 2012. If that looks likely then sign them to a 3 year contract in mid 2012 for what ever $ ie $3-5mil per year. Then if they mature into studs or something close they will command the big FA $ and the Jays should get the picks.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 11:40 AM EST (#249781) #


I don't see AA losing picks in the draft. Picks are protected for 2 years now.

If you are going to read selectively and ignore the rest, you will often have an opportunity to be wrong.

Read the new CBA under:   III) Reserve System Including Amateur Players   e) Rule 4 Draft   3) Signing Bonus Pools   B) ...15%+ 100% tax on overage and loss of 1st round picks in next two drafts...

Just because the new CBA is out, isn't going to make those high upside prospects easier to sign.  This forthcoming Draft is the last time for many years Toronto will have 4 extra picks (22, 48, 51, 52 supplemental round numbers subject to change).   To handcuff A.A.'s ability to sign as many prospects as possible for fear of losing Draft Picks, is short-sighted.   You can get a 1st round pick back, Boston and New York and others had done it for years - Big Ticket Free Agents - tha's not changed much. 

The other part of that is that free agents who would sign a $13M contract have to be traded by the deadline even if the return is mediocre. Or you get nothing at all.

Accepatable Risk is part of doing business.   To not take a risk limits your chance of success, so you have to evaluate your return, sometimes it will turn to crap.   Just trust in A.A., this is a new thing to him too.

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bpoz - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#249782) #
Excellent points Richard.

Combining the old rules and the new CBA rules, the earlier signing deadline can be a major factor.

University picks like Paxton, are eligible to get drafted the following year but HS picks, I believe, but am not sure have to wait. Then there is the draft budget. This all has to be factored in the signing bonus. My prediction, probably wrong, is that bonus values will come down.

I agree with you that getting extra picks will be harder. I think AA will not be as successful getting the extra picks. I cannot prove it but I think AA had to think about acquiring players for their draft pick value and sacrificing wins & development of players who would not net a draft pick. In 2010 Buck's playing time was an ingredient in getting the draft pick, Molina's playing not so much, and JPA played less but still learned a lot. That is a luxury a non contender has IMO. IMO we are now a contender based on talent but we lack experience being so young.

I don't know if this is a wise strategy or not. If a team estimates that they are at their max budget by a certain round then they may draft cheaper players accordingly. So more players that are considered riskier signings will fall. Again what to do.
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hypobole - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 12:55 PM EST (#249783) #
In my mind the new Moneyball will be an increased emphasis on amateur scouting and player development.
The Jays, through AA's hiring of extra scouts and club policy designed to attract the best people to the organization have an advantage in that area, but other organizations will be following suit. Case in point is the the Orioles recently reassigning 6 pro scouts to their amateur scouting department.
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greenfrog - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 01:09 PM EST (#249784) #
Why not sign Hideki Kuroda to a two-year deal? Sure, he's not a #2, but he could shore up the rotation nicely, giving the Jays 200 IP or so with decent peripherals. Worst case scenario, you package him off in a deadline deal. He's a Type B (and therefore wouldn't cost a draft pick), and by avoiding a trade, AA hangs on to his prospects. Slotting him in as the #3/4 would also create some healthy competition for the #5 slot in the rotation.
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92-93 - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 02:02 PM EST (#249785) #
For the same reason the Jays haven't been in on any free agents, greenfrog.
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TamRa - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 02:24 PM EST (#249787) #
repeating myself (too much I'm sure)

The team HAS depth of competition in the rotation, and they don' NEED to get in the way of developing younger pitchers by adding good-but-not-great SP

You know Romero and Morrow are locks

that gives you three spots for...

Cecil - is the reported increase in conditioning and focus real and if so does it produce the kind of pitcher he projected to be 2 years ago?

Alvarez - still quite young, can he sustain the progress or will he regress, and if he does will it be to such an extent you need him to either repeat AA or suffer the rigors of Vegas?

McGowan - will he stay healthy and if so maintain his re-born stuff over a long period? He's out of options so if he's healthy he has to be in Toronto.

Drabek - everyone seems to be almost writing him off, and maybe he has Ankiel disease and never recovers....but maybe not. if he pitches well in ST(particularly in terms of control), you cannot practically exile him to Vegas again and sending him to AA doesn't help him.

that's ALREADY one too many guys if all of them had good fortune, and we're all aware there are as many as 4 fallback starters who project to be major leaguers.

I was for Darvish, and he was the exceptional case. I could live with a few others though i don't really think it's the smartest move to sign them (Oswalt, Harden) but beyond a "difference maker" type signing, the LAST thing we need to do, IMO, is add a pitcher that you are obliged to include in the rotation who might not even be all that much better than the much younger in-house guys. That's the very definition of deviating from the long term development plan Alex has stuck closely too.
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greenfrog - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 03:01 PM EST (#249788) #
TamRa, the Jays' current rotation depth *could* prove sufficient, but there are an awful lot of question marks:

- Romero: can he sustain the leap forward he took last year? (And wasn't there some twitter noise about cleaning up his rotator cuff this off-season?)

- Alvarez: looks great IMO, but let's see how he holds up over a full season

- Morrow: realistically, is he a #2, 3, 4 AL East starter? (Career ERA+: 98.) If he's a #4, who slots in at #2 and 3?

- Cecil: realistically, is he good enough to be in an AL East starting rotation? (Career ERA+: 92.)

- Drabek: huge potential, huge implosion and control/command issues last year - enough said

- McGowan: has decent stuff, but even in 2005-08, never really found his groove as a major-leaguer (more potential than performance, with a career ERA+ of 92), and major questions remain about durability and consistency

It's fine to dream on their potential, but consider how they've actually performed (and held up) on the field to date in their careers. I agree that a Darvish or Latos would have been ideal, but I don't think it would be the worst thing to have a consistent quality innings-eater (ERA+ 114) adding some stability to the rotation and as a future trade chip. The Jays could always slot Drabek (assuming he makes the team) and/or McGowan into the bullpen to start the year.
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btfsplk325 - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 09:30 PM EST (#249790) #
TamRa writes: "Drabek - everyone seems to be almost writing him off, and maybe he has Ankiel disease and never recovers....but maybe not. if he pitches well in ST(particularly in terms of control), you cannot practically exile him to Vegas again and sending him to AA doesn't help him."

Can he hit? Left field maybe? :)
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TamRa - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 10:56 PM EST (#249791) #
- Romero: can he sustain the leap forward he took last year? (And wasn't there some twitter noise about cleaning up his rotator cuff this off-season?)

Maybe not. but if healthy he will get 32 or more starts so he takes up a spot either way.


- Alvarez: looks great IMO, but let's see how he holds up over a full season

I agree. but the point is, you don't KNOW if he can hold up over a whole season unless you give him a whole season to see.

- Morrow: realistically, is he a #2, 3, 4 AL East starter? (Career ERA+: 98.) If he's a #4, who slots in at #2 and 3?

Laying aside my optimism for him, he will (if healthy) get 32 starts. what "#" he is isn't the point, he takes up a turn.



- Cecil: realistically, is he good enough to be in an AL East starting rotation? (Career ERA+: 92.)

He's better than what he did last year, but he could very well be the 6th best option here. But, again, how do you know if you don't put him out there? What if he IS good enough to pitch in the AL East and you never find out because you are throwing $12 mil at Kuroda?


- Drabek: huge potential, huge implosion and control/command issues last year - enough said

So - we just assume he's done after one false start season? how much do we learn about what he can do with him in the minors? how does it make any sense to wash our hands of a guy who was so highly regarded just one year ago?


- McGowan: has decent stuff, but even in 2005-08, never really found his groove as a major-leaguer (more potential than performance, with a career ERA+ of 92), and major questions remain about durability and consistency

"Decent" is not the word professional observers use to describe McGowan's stuff. Regardless, you either sell him for pennies on the dollar, send him to the 'pen, or put him in the rotation.

I would concede that if McGowan was the only guy being blocked then I could see an argument for going ahead and doing an acquisition (but not for just one year, you'd need to be doing 3 years or so) for the reason that McGowan is only one year away from free agency himself.

Even then you'd be spending $12 million for what might be a marginal upgrade on what you can get for under a million, but I could at least see the logic.

By the way, importing a 37 year old Japanese soft-tosser from the NL West to the AL East doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. His career ERA+ is 114 in that enviornment and McGowan's one healthy year was 110 pitching to a much tougher league.

Here's McGowans 2007-2008 (I assume we can dismiss the early stuff as unrepresentative) as compared to Kuroda's career rates (again keeping in mind the quality of competition:

Stat - McG - Kuroda

ERA: 4.20 - 3.45
WHIP: 1.28 - 1.19
H/9: 8.4 - 8.6
K/9: 7.3 - 6.7
BB/9: 3.2 - 2.1
K/BB: 2.31 - 3.21
ERA+: 104 - 114

Now it's obvious who had better results - but when you factor age and competition, is it ENOUGH better to justify spending another 10-12 million?

And that's just considering McGowan.

To me, if you are trying to win every game possible in 2012, then add a starter, if you are trying to be the best team you can be from 2013-2020 and beyond, you need to see who's real and who's a poser and you do that by putting them out there. Even if you take some lumps along the way.

I get the whole reaction that comes from sending stiffs out there - the Dana Eveland's of the world - even if the circumstances demand it watching those bums is frustrating. but when the guy taking his lumps is a guy who might turn out to be very valuable over the next few years, I can live with that.

that applies as much to Brandon Morrow or Kyle Drabek as it does to Travis Snider and Colby Rasmus.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, December 26 2011 @ 11:31 PM EST (#249792) #

TamRa

We need 5 pitchers, 32-ish Starts, 210.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00, Winning % of .667.   Can you guarantee that?   No, I don't think so.

Ideally I'd like A.A. to acquire a Starter, as good as, or preferably, better than Romero.   That won't happen this offseason, because A.A. is more enamored with his prospects than any one else.   We need a # 2 Starter to eat 200.0+ innings a year, I`d be surprised if it happens.

If everyone you mentioned, can do everything you`d like them to, we still need a Front-Line Starter (I`d like 5).

Oswalt maybe, for the Draft pick; Kuroda, not a chance.

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greenfrog - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 11:47 AM EST (#249795) #
Richard: when his next contract is up, I'm not sure Oswalt is going to justify a salary offer of $13M or whatever it will take to obtain a compensatory draft pick.

TamRa: here is the Jays' current rotation (ages 27, 27, 21, 25, 29, 24) with career ERA+:

Romero 119
Morrow 98
Alvarez 121
Cecil 92
McGowan 92
Drabek 73

Contrast that to the Rays' rotation (ages 26, 30, 22, 24, 28, 26) - admittedly a tough comparison:

Price 117
Shields 106
Moore 134
Hellickson 124
Niemann 97
Davis 92

It is easy to cite potential (Cecil versus Price, Drabek versus Moore, Morrow versus Shields, etc.), but despite the similar age range, the Rays have a big edge in proven performance. At some point the rubber hits the road and you have to look at the stats. For example, AJ Burnett has been living off his ace potential for years, but he's now 34 and has a career ERA+ of 105 (82 and 86 over the last two years).

As for Kuroda, I'm not saying he's any kind of rotation savior - I'm not convinced he would be a wise addition - but it is worth noting that his ERA+ (during his mid-to-late-30s) is almost as good as anyone's on the Jays staff, with better durability than everyone except Romero.
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TamRa - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 03:24 PM EST (#249797) #
Here's how I'd compare them (seeking to match similar age and experience):

Romero - 119
Price - 117

Currently a virtual wash but there are many who presume Price will still get considerably better

McGowan - 92
Shields - 106

No way to really be sure how this plays out because we've not seen McGowan have a chance to gather momentum. but as a prospect, he was considered to have true ace potential and I don't think anyone ever said that about Shields. I THINK McGowan has more talent, but whether we see a career year in '12 before he's a free agent is a much shakier proposition. On the other hand, Shields is coming off of a career year and likely won't maintain quite at that level so it's not a slam dunk that they won't be at least in the same ballpark in 2012.

Morrow - 98
Niemann - 97

I think most observers would argue that morrow has a much better peak potentially ahead of him than Niemann does. Kind of balances the difference between Romero and price in that regard.

Cecil - 92
Davis - 92

I see no reason to expect more from Davis

Alvarez - 121
Moore - 134

Alvarez will likely be good, Moore is considered the best pitching prospect in the game. i have to concede to Moore but i will also note that 2 years ago price was considered the best pitching prospect in the game or close to it. Moore's obvious talent may yet take a couple of years to blossom. Alvarez too for that matter.

Drabek - 73
Hellickson - 124

this time last year there was a pretty even divide on which of these might have the best rookie year. that's no longer in doubt but the point remains that they are not dissimilar in ability, just in results so far. Naturally we have to wait and see if Drabek gets his feet back under him.


This is obviously imprecise because the Rays will almost certainly trade Davis (or Niemann?) which will muck up the comparisons.

I DO think the Rays have somewhat more talent and considerably more certainty. In 2012. But the Jays are still a work in progress. the Rays have maybe the best group in the AL and if you have a squad you can even compare to them without laughing yourself out of your chair, you have something to be pleased with.
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TamRa - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 03:27 PM EST (#249798) #
"We need 5 pitchers, 32-ish Starts, 210.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00, Winning % of .667. Can you guarantee that? No, I don't think so."

Yeah yeah yeah. so does every other team in baseball. How many of them had that in 2011, or 2010, or, well, EVER?

Find me all the teams in the last 20 years that had:

5 starters with 210+ IP

OR

5 starters with 32 starts who all had ERA's under 4.00

OR

5 starters with 32 starts who all had a winning percentage of .667 or better


there are almost 600 teams to choose from - how many achieved either of those standards, let alone all 3

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Mylegacy - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#249799) #
Tamra and greenfrog are having a starting pitcher discussion they're using:

Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
McGowan
Drabek

as the starters...

I disagree:

I see

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil (SEE BELOW)
McGowan (I'd have him fourth IF I wasn't trying to give him more days off)

Rather than discuss Drabek - who has removed himself from consideration until he shows some improvement...

I see

Hutchison
McGuire - and possibly
Jenkins  - as ALL being considered before Drabek (at THIS time).

I would much prefer either McGuire or Hutchison to FORCE Cecil to the bullpen. Cecil has not shown an acceptable AL East level of ability against righties - and most hitters are righties. At this time I see the team IMPROVED if either Hutchison (preferably) or McGuire can force there way in this spring.

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Hutchison/McGuire
McGowan

with a bullpen of:

Santos
Janssen
Villaneuva
Litsch
Cecil (L)
Carreno
Perez (L)

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bpoz - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 04:48 PM EST (#249800) #
Regarding the rotation, some people are thinking 2012 and beyond.
I would be happy if 2012 produced 2 pitchers as good as Romero. I had doubts that Romero would be as good as he is. These are pitchers that record 200+IP and an ERA below 4.00. So with 3 SPs that good we may compete.

I know that is wishful thinking. Alvarez may have an IP limit under 200, Hutch and others probably don't get more than 15 starts. And Santos HAS to be the closer, but can a 96-97 mph FB according to the gun I saw, a great slider and success with that 3rd pitch he is working on make him into that type of SP.

I don't know if Oswalt or Kuroda can be that pitcher in the AL East or even if AA will get them. However I can see room for 1 of them until early July, I don't know whose spot would be taken but the prospects & Drabek IMO may need until Mid July. You may not be able to trade Oswalt or Kuroda if they are not pitching well enough and if they are pitching well then should they still be moved. ALL speculation!!
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greenfrog - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 04:52 PM EST (#249801) #
2011 team payroll info is up on MLBTR. Unsurprisingly, the Jays' payroll ($75.9M) is well below both the AL East average ($119.6M) and the AL average ($104.7M). I note that even if the Jays had won the Darvish bidding, their payroll would be well below these averages (even factoring in the posting fee).
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 06:54 PM EST (#249804) #

Sometime after the first of the year, optimism take over and GMs are happen with what they have and are looking to Spring Training.   At that time, Trades Stop, and A.A. is out of luck.   His only option will be the Chicago Cubs, and their "rebuild / dump salary" mode they're in now.   Carlos Zambrano, all $18.0 MM owed and other problems, might be available.  If A.A. can take the entire salary, the cost in prospects should not be severe.

Drew Hutchison (3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.800 Whip, 3 GS, 15.0 10 H, 2 ER, 2BB, 21 SO in AA) may force his way onto the Roster sometime this year, having pitched: 14-4, 2.53, 149.1 innings over 3 levels (A, A+, AA) in 2011.   Noah Syndergaard had a better year, but is even more inning-limited, having at age 18, pitched: 5-2,1.83, 59.0 innings over 3 levels (RK, A-, A) in 2011.

Deck McGuire (2-1, 4.35, 1.306, 4G, 3GS, 20.2, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 SO in AA), before being hurt) may also be needed. He has only pitched: 9-5, 3.02, 125.1 innings over 2 levels (A+, AA) in 2011.

Chad Jenkins (5-7, 4.13, 10196, 16 GS, 100.1, 93H, 46 ER,27 BB, 74 SO in AA), might also be needed. He is more ready to be called as he pitched:9-12, 3.70, 167.2 innings over 2 levels (A+, AA) in 2011.

If A.A. is unable to acquire a Front-Line Starter this offseason, this shall be our Starting Rotation: Ricky Romero will be our default Ace, and will gives us more of the same.    Brandon Morrow will be our default Backup Ace, under-performing as usual (if, or unless he finally gets it), no longer inning-limited.   Henderson Alvarez will be our # 3 starter (because he can), able to pitch 190.0 - 200.0 innings in 2012.   The remaining two Positions will go to the best two survivors of the battles and I do not care who wins.

If AA cannot get at least one of: an EIG, a LOOGY, a Front-Line Starter or Big Bat we still need, I will consider this offseason a failure.

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TamRa - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 09:12 PM EST (#249808) #
Cott's calculates the 2011 salary at $70.5 FWIW
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greenfrog - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 09:30 PM EST (#249809) #
Are they using the same metric? According to the AP article cited by MLBTR:

"Figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/2011-payrolls-by-division.html
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 10:45 PM EST (#249810) #
What gets lost in the Cot's ($70.5-ish MM) figures is things like $5.0 MM sent in the Vernon Wells' trade, a Catcher (for a draft pick) buyout, doesn't get included in the Opening Day Roster Payroll numbers (so $75.9 MM is also right).
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greenfrog - Tuesday, December 27 2011 @ 11:29 PM EST (#249811) #
However you slice it, the Jays have a very modest payroll. Positive spin: the team already has a promising foundation (young core and strong farm system, front office, scouts, etc) in place, so they should be competitive eventually without a big payroll - and they may have resources available to add a key piece or two when they're on the verge of contention. Negative spin: Rogers are cheap corporate bastards, and won't authorize a competitive payroll unless they have to - which may be never, given that they have a bright young GM who can field decent (if not quite elite) teams on a relatively low budget. Besides, the team is a vehicle for marketing Rogers and its products, not to win championships.

Take your pick.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 01:35 AM EST (#249812) #
When A.A. spoke of ...parameters...he crossed a line that should never be crossed.   Finances are Beeston's responsibility.  A.A. has a job getting as much money as possible from Beeston, who can talk of ...parameters...when saying no.   When A.A.'s talk of a Big Offseason becomes A.A. talking about how trades are more important to him, that becomes a concern.   Then, that makes less sense, when he bemoans losing Molina for making a very good acquisition, casting doubt upon his judgement.   If he hasn't figured the way to get around the new CBA's the way I did (see The New Moneyball), he should be replaced.   His offseason was: 1) Waiver claims.   2) Minor acquisitions for the bench: Jeff Mathis, Luis Valbuena and Ben Francisco for Brad Mills, Frank Gailey and some cash.   3) A bigger move, acquiring (not a Bona Fide) Closer Sergio Santos for Nestor Molina.    Major Acquisitions of EIG, LOOGY, Front-Line Starter and Big Bat are still to come.   This offseason will show if A.A. is a top GM or just another lucky wanna-be.
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hypobole - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 02:33 AM EST (#249813) #

If he hasn't figured the way to get around the new CBA's the way I did (see The New Moneyball), he should be replaced. 

Why did the Macbeth quote "full of sound and fury" come to mind when I read this?

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85bluejay - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 09:17 AM EST (#249815) #
Richard S.S  -  did your doctor not warn you about the side effects of that medication?
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 09:56 AM EST (#249816) #
Richard SS, You seem to be a passionate Jays fan. You are working hard at this passion and I appreciate your contributions.

I checked the January 2010 & 2011 transactions for every AL East team and found that you are correct. Trades seemed to me to slow down but FA signings were still going strong. We will see what Jan 2012 produces.

I have to admit that I was taken aback by your use of the word Failure. After thinking it over, I concluded that it is a subjective meaning word so it is OK to use in this context. Even though it sounds like I am lecturing, I hope that I am not.
I don't know why AA stated his acquisition goals, But since I am one who believes in AA I conclude that there is a some good strategy behind this. I too consider this Off season a failure or disappointment so far because I kept hoping for minor league acquisitions this off season and the last 2. I was hoping his scouts would alert him to some C prospect that he could get cheap at the cost of very little to us. Juan Guzman for Mike Sharperson comes to mind. Sharperson looked like a good utility IF option but Guzman looked like a long shot IMO. So Gailey for Fransisco looks good to me because he cost us nothing IMO and I think Fransisco will very likely play in the Majors in 2012 for someone.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 10:48 AM EST (#249818) #
Kevin Goldstein of BP has posted a list of 10 players who would like to turn it around in 2012 (subscriber only). One is Kyle Drabek:

'Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
Drabek entered the 2011 season as the Blue Jays’ best prospect and a Rookie of the Year candidate, but he struggled with his command and, if anything, went backward following a demotion to Triple-A. Still, his stuff, including a plus fastball and plus-plus curveball, is still there. “I still like him a lot,” said one scouting executive, adding that a move to the bullpen might suit Drabek’s pitch inefficiency and fiery makeup better.'
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92-93 - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 01:14 PM EST (#249822) #
Again with this Kyle Drabek curveball? I just don't get it. Every scouting report on Drabek has talked about this plus-plus curveball since he was acquired in the Halladay trade, but it was non-existent at the major league level in 2011. He would throw some sort of breaking ball but it looked more like a slider and it was more of a 3rd pitch, not some reliable weapon like Kershaw's curveball. If he really has this developed of a curveball I hope he gets back to the basics that brought him to a top prospect status, instead of the mountains of cutters John Farrell had him throwing.
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Spifficus - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 02:02 PM EST (#249823) #
I saw an 80-85 hard breaking ball that looked pretty nasty. Of course, his fastball command had so many issues he couldn't put himself in a position to use it very often.

As for the cutter, why are you assigning that to Farrell? I thought I remembered him talking about them trying to get him off the cutter and to work on 4-seam command (and scrapping the pitch altogether when he went down). Either way, in the future it's going to be a good pitch... when he has both command of it and the 4-seamer, and the 4-seamer comes first.
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BalzacChieftain - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 02:05 PM EST (#249824) #

Drabek's cameo in September 2010 seemed to include a lot more of these mystical curveballs. He seemed to have some trouble harnessing it as it would bounce in front of the plate, but batters were still swinging at it.

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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 04:52 PM EST (#249827) #
Red Sox acquire Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick. Nice move for the BoSox; Reddick is a useful piece, but seems unlikely to become a star.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/red-sox-acquire-andrew-bailey.html
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 04:55 PM EST (#249828) #
May be more to the deal, per Buster Olney:

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN
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jester00 - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 05:14 PM EST (#249830) #
Looks like Bailey and Sweeney to Boston for Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara.  Decent for Oakland, but man are they going to blow next year.
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Moe - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 05:14 PM EST (#249831) #
Given the FA price for closers, that seems to be rather cheap. Redding is mot that shiny and the other two are C+ prospects.


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Moe - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 05:19 PM EST (#249832) #
Olney's comment: "I think as the winter went along, OAK's market for Bailey shriveled up, with all of the FA relievers available. Injury history a factor,too."

and here is what Sickels said about Reddick: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/6/2261533/prospect-of-the-day-josh-reddick-of-boston-red-sox

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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 06:46 PM EST (#249835) #
If you wanted Andrew Bailey as an E.I.G. / Backup Closer, what would you give that is better than Boston's offer?   Snider?   Which prospects?
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TamRa - Wednesday, December 28 2011 @ 07:12 PM EST (#249840) #
"If you wanted Andrew Bailey as an E.I.G. / Backup Closer, what would you give that is better than Boston's offer? Snider? Which prospects?"

Thames/Cardona/Crouse would seem to be similar.

Sickels had both those prospects as C+ players, ranked #21 and #23

Cardona was #13 for the Jays, a B- and Crouse was #24 and a c+

If you lay aside efforts to find similarities and just look for similarly regarded guys, you might say Moisese Sierra (#23, C+) and Chad Jenkins (#21 C+) but Oakland might well be looking for guys with more upside who are further away given what they got from the Red Sox.

Oh, and Thames is better than Reddick too, as a hitter, but he can't be a good RF.
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