Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 2012 Minor League Players

2012 Minor League Players - Middle Infield

We started this series by looking at catchers and first basemen, today it's the middle infielders who we review. Because of the interchangability of shortstops and second basemen we will look at them together making it a double position look.

Las Vegas

There could be a battle for playing time in AAA. The Jays had an excess of middle infielders, even before they added Omar Vizquel this week.

Adeiny Hechavarria will return to Las Vegas to handle shortstop. Hechavarria made a great first impression in Las Vegas last August but he didn't follow up that up in the fall where his performance was weak. Hechavarria battled some leg problems in the AFL which may or may not have impacted his hitting. 2012 is a big year for Hechavarria to show he can be an offensive threat in the major leagues.

Jon Diaz was recently in Toronto as part of the players of the future camp. Diaz impressed John Farrell last spring training with his defense and because, in the major leagues, shortstop is a defense first position. Diaz can play defense with the best of them but his hitting is weak. Diaz is short in stature and his strong defense and weak hitting earn him John McDonald comparisons. Diaz endured a tough 2011 after a taxi crash in Vegas knocked out both he and his wife.

Luis Valbuena or Mike McCoy will have a spot in Vegas, or now with the Vizquel signing both may be in Vegas. They will be joined by recent signee Brian Bocock and returning Chris Woodward. It is conceivable that the 51's could carry four middle infielders but that is a stretch. If Mike McCoy is one of the four he can play the outfield but otherwise it looks like the Jays have too many guys. They must know something more than I do. Although Chris Woodward is a spring training invitee, he could retire at any time and even take on a coaching role with the Jays.

My expectation today is that Omar Vizquel will get the backup job in Toronto. Luis Valbuena and Adeiny Hechavarria will be the starters in Las Vegas with Mike McCoy as the super utility backup. don't know where Bocock or Diaz fit. Alternatively the extra players in the Jays system could mean that Valbuena has been promised a major league spot or his release. New Hampshire will need a backup, or a starter too, Diaz could fill one of those roles.

New Hampshire

Ryan Goins will be 24 when spring training rolls around and the 4th round draft pick in 2009 will get pushed up to AA to show he can handle it. Goins had a 750 OPs in Dunedin last season despite a slow start and missing the month of June due to injury. Goins has been a decent player as a pro without showing major league promise.

Ryan Schimpf missed the first half of 2011 but came back to Dunedin and hit well in the second half. Schimpf is more of an offensive than defensive player and did he hit 10 home runs in a half season in the FSL. As a lefty hitter in New Hampshire Schimpf could put up some good power numbers. Diaz or Bocok could be the backup in AA.

Another option is that Schmpf stays in Dunedin, he only played a half season in 2011. Diaz or Bocock could then be the starting second baseman.

Dunedin

There are few obvious candidates to move up from Lansing for the middle infield, or indeed any infield position. Lansing made the playoffs last season giving lots of at-bats to Gustavo Pierre, Gari Pena, Bryson Namba, Oliver Dominguez, Balbino Fuenmayor and KC Hobson. That is not a lineup to put fear in the opposition.

Oliver Dominguez could handle a promotion after two years in Lansing. Kevin Nolan has been a backup in the his with the Jays but he has been a good performer when called on. Nolan could be given the everyday job in Dunedin.

The other move that would make the upper level jogjam easier would be to leave Goins or more likely Schimpf in Dunedin to start the season. That would open up a job in AA for one of the AAA excess players.

Lansing

Peter Mooney, Gari Pena, Shane Opitz and Gustavo Pierre will battle for the shortstop position in Lansing. Pierre has played there for the first half of last season but couldn't handle the defensive requirements. At this time it is uncertain whether he will stay at shortstop. Pena is a very good defensive player but hasn't contributed offensively. Mooney is a 2011 draft pick whose scrappy play earned him a promotion to Lansing to end last season. And Opitz is a 2010 draft pick who was pushed to Vancouver last season and handled it well. Mooney is the oldest at 21, the other three will be 20 years old at the start of the season.

In part because of his age and experience Mooney would be the favourite here but if the Jays think Opitz can handle it he might get the nod too. Both Mooney and Opitz can handle second base as well as shortstop.

Jonathon Berti, Jorge Vega-Rosado, Andy Fermin and Daniel Arcila are options for the second base job, as are Pena, Opitz and Mooney. Berti is the college player who was assigned to Vancouver last season. Vega-Rosado was the Blue Jays player of the year in the GCL. Even though Vega-Rosado played well in rookie ball, I don't get the sense that he will be pushed aggressively and I don't expect him to make the Lansing squad.

I think it will be Mooney, Opitz and Pena on the Lansing roster.

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:59 AM EST.

2012 Minor League Players - Middle Infield | 29 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

TamRa - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:20 AM EST (#251141) #

"but he didn't follow up that up in the fall where his performance was weak. "

Actually, Hech opened the AFL season 1-for-21

After that, his slash lines were: .333/.404/.608

Of course, on the other hand, he had one massive game in which he went 4/4 with 3 triples, so in fairness i'll take that out too. .278/.358/.447/.805

Still, pretty good results - even for the AFL - for a guy who can't hit.

Hodgie - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 09:02 AM EST (#251144) #

Still, pretty good results - even for the AFL - for a guy who can't hit.

Perhaps it would be in another context but that really isn't the case here. The AFL rosters are littered with older players that won't be showing up on any relevant prospect lists and yet the average slash line was:

.366/.463/.829

Regardless of context, 71 AB in the AFL are fairly meaningless however the results are dissected. Unless of course your name is Chip Cannon.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 10:48 AM EST (#251147) #

It would be great if Hechavarria could hit enough to be a solid MLB SS. Heck, according to fangraphs, Omar Visquel amassed 48.3 WAR in his career (the average HOF player amassing 60 WAR), despite hitting 272/337/353. Perhaps it's no coincidence that the Jays recently signed the mentor...er, player Visquel to a minor-league contract.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-peak-less-wonder-omar-vizquel-and-the-hall/

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 11:16 AM EST (#251150) #

Omar Vizquel's OBP during his prime from age 29-33 averaged .368 and ranged from .347 to .397. It would be nice to get that out of the club's first baseman and DH, let alone a middle infielder.

The ZIPS projection for Hechavarria is .241/.269/.345. All that means is that he has quite a way to go before he hits enough to be valuable. Right now, the optimistic scenario is Mark Belanger, who developed plate control at age 25 and was a valuable player for a few years there. The pessimistic scenario is Dal Maxvill, who had one decent year at age 29 and was basically a replacement level player the rest of his career.

Gerry - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 11:25 AM EST (#251151) #

The other optimistic scenario for Hechavarria is that he gets hot for three months to end 2012 and he is a key piece in a major trade. There are lots of managers and GM's who love a premium defensive shortstop, and Hech is that today.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 11:40 AM EST (#251152) #

Well, to be fair to 22-year-old Adeiny, when Visquel was his age he hit 220/273/261 in 431 PA in the majors, and didn't crack a 600 OPS until he was 25.

sam - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 12:05 PM EST (#251154) #

Whether the Jays trade Hech will be a real litmus of "prospect love." Organizations who draft or buy amatuer players, especially expensive amateur acquisitions find it very hard to give up on a player. Trading Hech would be hard to fathom for AA, but if he were to get hot his value would be extremely high. I don't think I can see Hech getting traded before he at least has a crack or two at the Bigs.

Hodgie - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 01:16 PM EST (#251159) #

If there was a litmus test I would think it was passed long ago with the trades that saw Molina, Stewart, Wallace, Taylor, Pastornicky and Collins all leave the organization.

sam - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 01:26 PM EST (#251160) #

I disagree. Molina, Stewart, Pastornicky, and Collins were all inherited prospects from a previous GM. Wallace had been traded for, and then re-traded to acquire the prospect who was originally wanted.

Hechevarria is a different example altogether. He was AA's first, and most expensive amateur acquisition, and the shining example of the organizations recommitment to amateur development and expansion. Giving up on him, by trading him, would be difficult to swallow for what he represents.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 01:55 PM EST (#251164) #

I doubt Hechavarria will get traded anytime soon. If he doesn't do especially well in 2012, he's simply not going to fetch a whole lot in return. If he does well, AA will no doubt want to keep him, as the Jays' system is lacking in middle IF depth and Escobar isn't going to remain a solid defensive SS forever. Good shortstops (especially young, cost-controlled ones) are hard to find.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:07 PM EST (#251166) #

Vizquel had good plate control all the way up in the minors. Another example of a shortstop with a similar history of development from a base of good plate control would be Ozzie Smith.

Trading Hechavarria after 3 hot months in 2012 is, I suppose, possible. The difficulty is that the club is very shallow (as Gerry's article hints at) in the middle infield. Kolten Wong would have been a nice fit.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 02:28 PM EST (#251168) #

Visquel's minor-league line is 241/321/319. Hechavarria's is 255/291/362. As alluded to by Mike, Visquel had a much better BB:K ratio (208:226) in the minors than Hech has posted to date (50:164). However, Hech has shown a bit more pop.

Hech is athletic and still young - can he refine his offensive game and eventually become a solid MLB SS? Does he have the work ethic and makeup to do so? This would provide a huge boost to the Jays' organizational future. As Gerry notes, 2012 is a big developmental year for him.

Hodgie - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:20 PM EST (#251171) #

If Anthopoulos had come from outside the organization I might agree with you Sam. Of course he didn't and was a key person in the front office when those players were acquired. Alex specifically targeted Wallace after the Halladay trade. The context of the acquisition may have been different, but there is no mistaking the fact that Wallace was a player Anthopoulos coveted and yet Alex showed no hesitation in dealing Wallace when he thought the trade could make the organization better.

TamRa - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:30 PM EST (#251172) #

There's also the matter of # of professional AB

Hech has 1058 plate appearances in professional baseball.

Vizquel had more than that before he got out of low A ball. Vizquel had a better OBP in all but one stop to that point than Hech's .305 in 2011, but they were all low-level teams whereas Hech was facing AA and AAA competition.

Comparisons with so many dissimilar factors are very difficult.

To me Vizquel isn't even the right comparison - we're talking about a guy some people consider a potential hall of famer.

I'm thinking more like Alex Gonzalez, maybe Alcides Escobar

Gonzo has been in the majors, and often a coveted player, for 13 years - and his career OBP is .291

I see no reason why Hech can't do AT LEAST that much.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:47 PM EST (#251173) #

Sea Bass was called up to the Marlins after hitting .270/.330/.443 in the International League at age 21 and after a decent season at age 20 in the Eastern League. Hechavarria might develop into something like Gonzalez, I suppose, if he adds quite a bit more pop.

jester00 - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:53 PM EST (#251174) #

Guys like Ozzie Smith and Dave Concepcion both had long successful MLB career's, and both of them have a career OPS of around .670. Hech is still young and has only played two seasons of professional ball, all at an age that was young for each stop. He'll probably never be much more than a .675-.725 hitter, but if the elite defense continues then he'll be a well above average player. I'm willing to wait on that.

BalzacChieftain - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 03:55 PM EST (#251175) #

No need to force unnecessary comps. Hech will be an above average defensive SS with limited offensive ability, probably with poor plate discipline.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 04:11 PM EST (#251176) #

Despite the pseudo-authoritative pronouncements about what is or isn't the right comp, I think Balzac has it basically right. The kid is young and has been in North America for only two years, showing plus defense and offensive limitations (along with some positive sparks) and inconsistent performances across different levels. How high can he fly? I'm not sure any of us has a clue. Just have to watch and see - one of the fun aspects of being a baseball fan.

lexomatic - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 08:35 PM EST (#251182) #

Seeing as this is a thread about the minors... anyone seen this comment from Bill James?
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/bill_james_mailbag_-_1_22_12_-_1_25_12

Nice company for Lawrie.

gabrielthursday - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 10:46 PM EST (#251188) #

Call me a rosy-eyed optimist, but I think Hech's eventual offensive numbers will look something like .265/.315/.390. Those numbers, while hardly imposing, would actually put Hechavarria slightly better than the average shortstop at the plate. Combined with his defence, that would make Hech a 4-win player. If you're a good defensive shortstop and a good baserunner, you simply don't have to hit all that well to be a valuable starter.

mendocino - Wednesday, January 25 2012 @ 11:48 PM EST (#251191) #

http://dplbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=303:ronniel-demorizi-agrees-to-terms-with-toronto&catid=1:latest-news

Jays sign 16 year old Shortstop

jgadfly - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 02:09 PM EST (#251215) #

Gerry, Thanks for your continued excellent articles, comments and insights.

I keep reading about the "Las Vegas field effect" and how it is difficult to decipher or project actual hitting and pitching performance. I've read that the infield is "fast" which leads to more ground ball hits and that the "power allies" are deep which leads to more doubles vs HR's (eg. Cooper). I don't recall reading any similar caveats attached to the Dodger prospects when LA had their triple-A team there.

Could you find out from your contacts what anomalies they take into account or how they modify their scouting reports/evaluations to compensate for this ? Thanks ...

Chuck - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:06 PM EST (#251228) #

Jays sign 16 year old Shortstop

Everyone in the DR is 16. Demographers can't understand where all the 17-20 year olds have gone.

MatO - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:12 PM EST (#251231) #

My personal observations are that a prospect called up from LV loses about 50 to 80 points off his batting average. That's based on guys like Lawrie, Thames, JPA and Wallace who had extended time in LV and in the majors in the last year. When the Dodgers were in LV I remember looking at the hitter stats and seeing most guys hitting over .300 so I don't anything has changed.

Gerry - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:26 PM EST (#251235) #

I heard from a front office guy that Luis Valbuena is out of options so he might not make it to AAA if he gets waived.

Gerry - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:34 PM EST (#251240) #

jgadfly:

The short answer is that front offices don't rely on stats. They have scouts who look at bat speed and approach for hitters and command and control for pitchers, among other things. Plus they talk to the Vegas managers and coaches to get their evaluations. So the wacky stats don't matter to who gets called up. I think they are more worried about what it does to hitter and pitcher approaches or to their heads. Does the environment wear down a pitcher, make him think he is worse than he is, make him lose his confidence? We can all say "that's Vegas" but when a starter is coming out of a game in the sixth inning and there are five runs on the board he doesn't feel like he did well.

Mat is right, the ground is rock hard and really fast. And it's not just Las Vegas. Some of the parks such as Colorado Springs are at altitude and others have other "odd" characteristics. So a curve might not curve in Colorado and a fly ball might get over the fence in the thin air. I think ground ball pitchers are the ones most impacted by Las Vegas. That is why Zach Stewart and Henderson Alvarez skipped AAA.

I hope that helps.

And if the Dodgers didn't mention it they must have been trying to downplay it. There is a reason they left and that Toronto and Vegas were the last two partners left in the game of AAA musical chairs.

John Northey - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:49 PM EST (#251242) #

I think it is worth checking how teams in Vegas did with prospects but it is hard to do so quickly.

1995 the stars had via the Padres (among the 25 and under crowd)
Marc Newfield age 22 - top 100 player in the minors by BA for 5 years but just 1051 PA in the majors.
Ray McDavid age 23 - top 100 player in the minors by BA for 3 years but just 48 PA in the majors.
Sean Mulligan age 25 - never highly ranked, just 1 ML PA
Tim Hyers age 23 - 2nd round pick, 230 ML PA
Roberto Petagine age 24 - amazing in Japan, just 438 ML PA
Jorge Velandia age 20 - 278 ML PA

Ick. Now _that_ didn't work well did it?

What about pitchers?
Dustin Hermanson had a decent career (1200+ IP, 105 ERA+) but that is about it for success.

If someone wants to do some more digging...

Of note: many of those guys were highly ranked at times (especially McDavid) but only Hermanson had any degree of ML success. Not a good sign.

sam - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 04:57 PM EST (#251245) #

Just to had on to Gerry's points about evaluation. Internally, Managers of the the minor league teams will usually submit weekly reports of players. Daily statistics are obviously available for hitters and pitchers, but you'll see players in the stands usually at Minor League games "charting." Essentially what they're doing is tracking each pitch thrown. The type of pitch, result, location, and velocity. These will then be sent up the ladder so when you hear John Farrell allude to "reports" on certain guys. It's a combination of manager reports, roving scouts reports, and then the charting.

Good managers and coaches at the minor league level are invaluable to a ball-club. They've got to develop these players, yet at the same time critically evaluate them. Good managers can really help ease how an organization directs its resources. If upper management trusts the evaluations of a manager then they won't have to sent multiple scouts to check out a player. Similarly, if players are developing accordingly then special instructors and roving instructors can be used at the lower levels where they are more needed. The Jays have done well to get Sal Fasano and Mike Redmond in the fold. I'm not sold on Clayton McCullogh, and they'll have to find someone to replace Mel Queen, but outside of that it's an organizational strength in my opinion.

85bluejay - Thursday, January 26 2012 @ 06:13 PM EST (#251247) #

Luis Valbuena is out of options, that's partly why Cleveland gave up on him - I think if Valbuena proves he can be adequate at SS, then he will win the Utility infielder spot.

2012 Minor League Players - Middle Infield | 29 comments | Create New Account

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