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Due to lack of time, this will be the travel size version sans all bells and whistles.




Las Vegas 6, Sacramento 3

Sean O'Sullivan opened the second half with his worst appearance since joining the 51's, walking five in five innings, but he escaped only giving up to runs. He got the win and Chad Beck got the save.

Gose and Thames both went 2 for 5. Snider had an interesting night, striking out two times and walking three times. Thames had a double and Seirra contributed a triple.


New Hampshire 2, Portland 4

John Stilson caught the same bug as O'Sullivan, but had a slightly less severe case. He walked three (while striking out only one) in five innings, but he gave up three runs in the process, which was enough of a deficit to take the loss.

The offense managed only four hits, Mike McDade's solo homer and Kevin Howard's double being the only ones for extra bases.


Dunedin 7, Jupiter 2

Dunedin got better results from their starter, as Casey Lawrence delivered seven strong innings, giving up only one run.

The D-Jays offense was likewise much more successful. Ryan Schimpf was 3 for 5, Jon Talley and Jon Jones were both 2 for 4 with a double and Jack Murphy, newly repatriated from AA, also had a double. Fading Justin Jackson struck out four times.


Lansing 3, Quad City 15

Aaron Sanchez suffered his first setback of the season on Thursday. He gave up a two run homer in the first and was pulled with one out in the second and the bases occupied by two opposing hitters who quickly scored on a homer allowed by Kramer Champlin to the first hitter he faced. Sanchez doubled the number of earned runs he's allowed this season in this one outing.

Kevin Pillar and Kenny Wilson both had two hits, the latter hitting a double both times. Chris Hawkins doubled and Carlos Perez tripled.


Vancouver 12, Boise 11

Marcus Stroman debuted tonight but his effort will not be remembered in song and legend. He was the second reliever after starter Eric Brown was crushed for six runs in four innings (why is this guy a starter this year again?) and he (Stroman) gave up three runs, two earned, in 2//3 of an inning of work.

The offense reserved their major efforts for an eight-run 7th inning which overcame a six run deficit., with Matt Newman's 3 run triple the big blow. In the game Derrick Chung and Dan Kline had 3 hits in five at-bats apiece (one of Klien's a homer), but the standout performance was by Jason Leblebijian who was 4 for 5 with a walk and a double.


Bluefield 4, Pulaski 5

The mix & match piggyback arrangement in Bluefield came up Comer/Osuna on Thursday. The former gave up 2 runs in 4 IP, the latter only one. But the former walked two and the latter three. Both struck out four.

Lead of hitter Dwight Smith was 3 for 5 with two doubles. Third baseman Matt Dean was two for four and between them they had 5 of the teams six hits.


GCL Jays 3, Pirates 6

(in 17 innings)

The extra inning affair made it possible for the GC jays to get a lot of pitchers in the game eight in all. Yeyfry Del Rosario started with three shutout innings and Shane Dwason followed with three more (while striking out five). Then Brandon Kaye pitched 2 more. Chuck Gyseles and Tim Berchbueler combined to blow the save in the ninth and it was time for free baseball. Two more pitchers added three shutout innings apiece before Luis Mendez got roughed up for three runs in the 17th inning.

Offensively, with seven or eight plate appearances apiece (except for the catchers) only two of them managed more than a single hit. Gabe Cenas was 3 for 5 and Dewal Lugo was 2 for 7. The Pirates shut the Jays out for 13 consecutive innings.

Third Star Kenny Wilson

Second Star Dwight Smith

First Star - Jason Leblebijian

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#260271) #
I wonder how A Loup will do?
mathesond - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#260273) #
If he gets shuttled back and forth between the majors & minors, then I'm sure a Loup de Loup reference will be in order
Chuck - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#260274) #
Quand on parle du loup literally means when we talk of the wolf but figuratively means speaking of the devil.

I'd say that there was very little speaking of the devil with this particular promotion. I'm not sure I've ever heard his name mentioned in these parts, at least not lately. But it could be I may have just missed it. A cuttlefish for anyone who saw this coming. I would have bet on Fuentes being the lefty to land on our doorstep.
Jdog - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#260276) #
Alberta boy Shane Dawson off to a nice start so far.
TamRa - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#260278) #
well, his trip to the AFL was a clue he was on their radar, but as much as they said in the spring about Crawford, he kind of got lost in all that.

One would assume they have concluded Crawford needs more development?
Lylemcr - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#260279) #

I saw this last night on the tube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghITg_eq8Zo

As an old Expos fan, this made me laugh.  Love the Hawk!

Oceanbound - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#260281) #
Crawford is on the DL, TamRa.
John Northey - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#260283) #
Maybe we should start with assuming 99% of pitchers on the roster are injured and go from there :P

6 pitchers on the 60 day DL (Drabek, Hutchison, Litsch, McGowan, Perez, Santos), 2 more on the 15 day DL (Morrow, Coello).  Ugh.  Meanwhile all hitters are healthy.

Oceanbound - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#260285) #
Indeed, it could be worse. You could combine the Blue Jays pitching staff with the Rays offense. They trotted this lineup out recently:

D. Jennings
S. Rodriguez
B. Upton
J. Keppinger
B. Zobrist
B. Conrad
H. Matsui
J. Molina
E. Johnson

Ew.

uglyone - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#260287) #
Not big on using an injury excuse for the Jays right now.

The only impact injury should be Morrow, and he's expected back in a couple of weeks.

Otherwise, injuries to your 4th/5th SP and a couple of relievers shouldn't be a season killer, IMO. (especially since one of those SP likely wasn't even our 5th best SP anyways).

MatO - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#260289) #
According to AA on the FAN last night, Morrow isn't expected back until mid or late August and maybe even September.  It sounded like it would be like spring training all over again for him and he just started throwing the ball.
scottt - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#260290) #
Loup will be slotted in place of Perez, low pressure relief.

Loup is Cajun, right?

The real good news is that Pauley is gone.
I hope Cordero is next, but maybe they'll try to offload him in a package.

Chuck - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#260291) #

If not a lupine nickname, then 40 years ago Aaron Loup might have received the nickname "caveman".

Aaron Loup (oop oop oop), he's the king of the jungle jive, look at that caveman go.

MatO - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#260292) #
DJ Davis is a double away from the cycle in today's game for the GCL Jays.  He lined out to CF to close the 7th.  He'll need some help from his teammates, who have combined for 1 hit and 3 walks so far, to get another shot.  It would be his first double of the season if he were to get one.
John Northey - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#260293) #
Not a season killer, but certainly hurts a team that was on the cusp of contention and still needs nearly everything to go right to win.  Losing your best starter this year, losing Drabek, Hutchison, Litsch, McGowan who were all to provide 4/5 depth this year in case Cecil had issues (which he obviously did), Romero pitching very badly, the closer gone, the backup closer stinking it up... ouch.

Yet somehow the Jays are still at 500 like last year, except this year that is good enough to be just 2 1/2 out of a playoff slot.  Imagine where they'd be without the injuries and if Cecil was the 90+ ERA+ guy he was rather than the 64 level he is currently at.
sam - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#260297) #
No point thinking that way as injuries always happen. The Jays in recent seasons have been lucky to not experience significant injuries. The Yankees have had similar injury issues, yet they've persevered. Even the Red Sox have had injuries and the Rays are missing their best player.

Rivera
Pineda
Chamberlain
Sabathia
Gardner
Pettitte

Crawford
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Bailey
Bucholz
Matsuzaka
Lackey
Beckett

So when you look at it:

Drabek
Santos
Hutchison
Morrow
Perez
Litsch
McGowan

Is not nearly as traumatic (if you take into account the fact that all teams grapple with injuries) as it seems. In fact, you could easily argue the Jays have been least affected by injuries as they've not sustained any injuries really to everyday players.
scottt - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#260298) #
Loup  appears to be a sidearmer who's been groomed to become an effective LOOGY.
As in the guy you bring in with the game on the line with a tough lefty in the box and no decent right handed options on the bench.

Seems to rely on a fastball and a curve.

With the rotation tllting left, here's hoping he's not thrown in against too many right handers.

bpoz - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#260303) #
Good point Sam. I do not expect either WC to come out of the AL Central. So how do the injuries of Baltimore, TB, LAA & Texas stack up.
scottt - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#260306) #
Texas and LA have spent a lot on free agency. They are less vulnerable to injuries because they plugged a lot of holes.

Boston is trying to swerve around the luxury tax. Otherwise they would not have started the year with so little pitching depth. They will most likely acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline though.

Tampa has little margin.
Richard S.S. - Friday, July 13 2012 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#260310) #

Toronto has Hechavarria, Gose and possibly d'Arnaud as primary MLB-ready trade pieces.   All are blocked by quality Major Leaguers who are proven.   Players like Snider and Thames only have throw-in value.   Usually more valued by team trading them than team receiving them.   Other primary trade pieces are Syndergaard, Sanchez, Norris and others.   All are probably 3+ years away.   A.A. has more than enough to make trades, he just needs to do it.   Dyson and Loup are up to see if they can pitch at this level, in case A.A. needs to trade a reliever.  

Knowing you need a good Starter for 2012, 2013, 2014 or longer, doesn't mean you'll get one.   Knowing you need another good Starter for at least 2012 and 2013 or longer doesn't mean you one either.   Knowing that because of injuries you must have a good Starter for 2012, but possibly longer, doesn't mean you get one.   But needing at least one good pitcher since pre-season due to innings limitations, and not getting one is a major failure looming for A.A.

Kelekin - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#260318) #
What makes you say Hech, Gose, and D'Arnaud are prime-time ready? I'd argue Hech is defensively ready, and it might be nice to see our investment and trade KJ if anyone is willing to take the chance.  Gose is not ready, and I think it'd be a ridiculous rush for him to be in the MLB this year.  I was one of the people in favour of keeping him in AA for half a year, since his numbers last year outside of stolen bases leave a lot of room for improvement.  D'Arnaud's certainly a lot closer - and while he may not have JPA's power and doesn't walk much more than JPA, he has a much better hit tool and better defensively.

Ultimately, I worry that none of the three are ready at this point.  I do realize D'Arnaud's numbers are great prior to the injury, but now the injury will make it so at best he is a September call-up.  I don't want to see the other two before September either, except in the case of Hechavarria if KJ is traded.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#260319) #
For the purpose of trading them away, is why I say they are MLB-ready. They are as "ready" as other GMs will think them to be. I just don't think they'll make the Jays before they are traded. We need pitching more than we need them. We over-value prospects for our Team more than they're valued by other Teams. Moving any of our top ten prospects/ MLB ready, up to all of them, should be done if we can get good quality Pitching. The minors are very strong and can handle major trades. If you wait for the prospects to be joining the Team, you miss an opportunity this year, and possibly give up on 2013 and 2014, something I am not willing to do.
CeeBee - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#260320) #
Most teams probably over value some of their prospects. With all the time, effort and money invested it's easy to see why. A team can also see the shortcomings of prospects too so I think it balances out. Fans..... now that's another story.
TamRa - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#260322) #
was looking over the list of potentially available players speculated on at MLBTR and these names jumped out for various reasons:

Starters:

Dempster - the best stats of the guys who are both available and are not totally out of reach financially in terms of an extension or out-ears. Not as expensive (in prospects) as the guys under control, nor as Grienke/Hamels

Garza - for reasons discussed at length

Rodruigez - still kind of skeptical whether he would hold up in the AL East, but should be an upgrade on our stop-gaps

Marcum - no idea about the extent of his injury or potential for recurrence, but would be a "feel good" situation otherwise

McCarthy - also injured, not sure how much the A's value the opportunity to extend him in-season as opposed to trying to sign him after.

Colon - the definition of a rental guy

Liriano - for the right price, might be the steal of the group given he's running on 2 months of fine work right now.


RH relievers:

Brandon Lyon - good numbers, might be packaged with Rodruigez in the right situation

Shawn Camp - turns out we miss him, might be packaged with Dempster or Garza

Huston Street - expensive

Brandon League - not as good as last year, price discounted?

Grant Balfour - ?


LH relievers:

Joe Thatcher - Padres being obvious sellers

Jose Mijaras - inconsistent history but times are hard

Matt Reynolds - BN-S might be assuming too much on this guy.


We shall see...


greenfrog - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#260323) #
I think Liriano is an interesting option, but it looks as though he'll be a free agent this off-season, so I wouldn't overpay for him. The Jays really need someone they can control beyond this year. I like the direction the organization is going in but I think contention is unlikely in 2012 (given the injuries, the tough schedule ahead, the competition getting healthy, etc).

It is perhaps a bit ironic that those who roundly panned options like Kuroda (115.1 IP, ERA+ 115) in the off-season are now floating players like Colon, Rodriguez, Camp and League as potential pitching options.

I would rather the Jays stand pat than make a desperation move in a sellers' market. There will be eventually be opportunities to make value acquisitions (as the Jays did with Rasmus) - no need to force things. Be patient.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#260324) #
On whether or not acquisitions should be made.
I think anyone who believes it will be easier to make acquisitions in the offseason is forgetting one important item. This offseason 30 teams will think they are in it. Right now, some teams have given up and will make trades. Thus ends part 1.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#260326) #
Well, evidently San Diego (Latos), Oakland (Gonzalez, Cahill and Bailey), Seattle (Pineda), the Cubs (Marshall) and others didn't envision themselves as contenders this year, so I'm not sure where that 30-team theory is coming from. Plus, in the off-season teams can acquire players via free agency as well as through trades, thereby creating a larger pool of potential acquisitions. So far, AA has typically acquired pitching in the off-season (Morrow, Villaneuva, Drabek and Santos), for whatever reason.

I'm all for adding good controllable players with upside at the deadline. I just think that the new CBA (eliminating draft compensation for traded players) and the extra wild card (more buyers, fewer sellers) means that deals will be harder to pull off.

I think the real issue is not so much whether to buy or stand pat in general, but whether AA can execute the specific trades that have the most appeal. For Rasmus and Santos, he gave up Stewart, Frasor, Rzep, Dotel, Patterson and Molina. Those trades barely dented the Jays' stellar farm system. In other words, can he get the guys he wants for prospects he views as B-list? Or can he get someone so good that including an A-list prospect makes sense?
Oceanbound - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#260328) #
You can't seriously believe that the Pineda trade is evidence that Seattle was giving up on the season. Sure, they likely didn't see themselves contending. Trading a good young pitcher for a good young hitter had nothing to do with that.
scottt - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#260332) #
The official story is that the Mariners are building up for a 2015 run.
scottt - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#260333) #
Ideally, AA should sign a marquee talent like Greinke to a long front loaded contract and trade him away once the local talent is ready to take over.

Trading the farm for 3 months or a year and a half makes little sense.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#260334) #
Oceanbound, I do. When you trade your promising #2 starter out of an already-top heavy rotation, and your division includes Texas and LAA, you're effectively conceding the season (to be fair, the M's were unlikely to contend even with Pineda). I expect Seattle is thinking ahead to a future rotation of Felix/Hultzen/Walker/Paxton and was trying to add some controllable offensive talent in Montero. But the minor-league pitching isn't going to have much of an impact (if any) this year.
scottt - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#260338) #
The Pineda trade is a lot like the Marcum trade.

The Jays were not contenders like year.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#260340) #
This team, with huge pitching problems, is still contending - many days after losing 60% of the rotation for almost the balance of the season. Saying they have too many holes to fill, while being true, gives up on a season where they still have a chance. That hasn't happened since 1993, and I'm personally disappointed in anyone who does give up.
Mike D - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#260343) #
Any arguments against immediately DFA'ing Jesse Chavez?
Mike Green - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#260344) #
I believe that question may be rhetorical!

On a happier note, I checked what Encarnacion had done as 1B/DH over the last 3 years.  I felt, like Magpie, that not having to play third base was a weight off his shoulders.  In 739 PAs (almost all in 2011 and 2012), he's gone .298/.367/.528.  Most players suffer a modest decline while DHing, but not Edwin (so far). 

Richard S.S. - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#260345) #
Incidentally I read on another site that we have signed 32 of 44 of our draft picks which is very good. How is it our forgotten post only shows 31 picks signed.
On another interesting note, the Team can still sign 6 International Free Agents for $50,000.00 or less, plus unlimited signings that don't exceed $7,500.00.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#260346) #
It's easy to package off blue-ribbon prospects for a name-brand player at the deadline (interestingly, Ubaldo Jimenez, whom the Jays just finished pummelling, was one of the trendy guys moved last summer). It's harder to be disciplined, stick with the game plan and make more creative moves.

The two wild card spots aren't going away anytime soon. No need to get desperate in 2012.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#260350) #
The two wild card spots aren't going away anytime soon. No need to get desperate in 2012.

Thank you!  I was just thinking of this the other day, how on so many Jays sites people are saying they should go for it, and how they're so close to the 2nd wildcard, etc.  People are acting like it's a one shot deal and the wild cards go away next year.  They don't.  No need to make crazy desperation moves.
bpoz - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#260351) #
How many games do people think it will take to win the 2nd WC?

Here are some numbers 90 Wins .556, 86 wins .531.

Right now 86 Wins has a "chance" to be enough IMO. We have to go 42-32 to do that .568. Before doing the math a few minutes ago I was quite confident/optimistic but the math has changed that, because IMO you have to be quite good to play .568 ball.

Maybe we go into the last series of the season at .500 but only 2 games back. I like our offense. Why, back in the 1993 playoffs we won a very high scoring game. This years team is making a habit of winning high scoring games. IMO Farrell will thrive in those types of games with the use of expanded rosters & an elite farm.
scottt - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#260352) #
Chavez down, Beck up.
TamRa - Saturday, July 14 2012 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#260361) #
"Right now 86 Wins has a "chance" to be enough IMO. We have to go 42-32 to do that .568. Before doing the math a few minutes ago I was quite confident/optimistic but the math has changed that, because IMO you have to be quite good to play .568 ball."

Ah, but any team can get hot for a month. There are 30 games from September 1 until the end of the season and even relatively modest teams have ripped off 20+ wins in a month before. So if you suppose a 21-9 run to end the season, you could be at .500 as late as August 1 and win 87 games (not that I recommend that plan)

But it's easy to juggle then numbers a bit. Say over the next 44 games you go 24-20 which is .545 (the equivilant of an 88 win season) which most thought we were before the injuries. That makes you 68-64 on the morning of September 1, and you go 20-10 the rest of the way and you win 88 games...even though you only had one hot month.

A couple of teams have made the playoffs - and advanced to the Series - in the last decade in just such a way.
TamRa - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#260366) #
"It is perhaps a bit ironic that those who roundly panned options like Kuroda (115.1 IP, ERA+ 115) in the off-season are now floating players like Colon, Rodriguez, Camp and League as potential pitching options."

Since I made the post with those names in this thread, I'll bite.

i never "panned" Kroda, when I made lists of guys I liked, he was generally on it, admittedly behind Darvish, Oswalt, Bedard, and a couple of others.

I "panned" middling guys like Wandy Rodruigez (whom I consider middling for this division) because I did not want to see those guys get in the way of in house options that we needed answers about.

[yes, for the record, Rodrignuez is pitching better than Bedard, and Garza for that matter, so far]

I'm so ashamed I didn't anticipate three starters and three relievers on the 60 day DL. If I had anticipated that, I would have assumed we'd have been a LOT more than 2.5 games out at the break.

Things have changed.

Beyond that - Kuroda has a 115 ERA+? So did Marcum the year before we traded him. He's good, and he'd be welcome here - he's not a Cy contender.


You voice enough opinions, many of them will surely be proven out to have been in error. when everyone was writing Colby Rasmus off and demanding that Gose go ahead and take over, I was on the opposite side. when everyone was saying "we must sign free agent pitchers" I was on the opposite side.

It happens. I have to accept the risk of being wrong (in hindsight) if I'm ever going to be able to brag about being right (in hindsight)

No irony there, IMO. Like I said - things change.
TamRa - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#260367) #
"It's easy to package off blue-ribbon prospects for a name-brand player at the deadline (interestingly, Ubaldo Jimenez, whom the Jays just finished pummelling, was one of the trendy guys moved last summer). It's harder to be disciplined, stick with the game plan and make more creative moves. "

Can't speak for others but nothing from me has ever implied or should be read as implying any sort of "sell the farm" strategy. I would be relatively content not to add anything (except a couple of low cost relievers) but Alex says he's going to.

I would like to think, by now, we would all have come to grasp the fact that AA is, if nothing else, VERY disciplined and VERY creative. Personally, I've seen no reason to assume he will commence making rash and unwise moves NOW. Nor do I advocate such.

On the other hand, if you could get something you can use t a profitable end for Mosies Sierra, or Chris Hawkins, or Sean Nolin or Mike McDade or Jenkins/McGuire or even Eric Thames - or some combination of similar guys...there's not a thing imprudent about that.

If there's anyone here who's advocating, say, Nicolino and Marisnick for Wandy Rodriguez, I haven't seen it. Yes, there was discussion of premium talent for Upton - but (a) he's premium too (in the eyes of the advocates) and (b) he's not a half-season patch.
bpoz - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#260377) #
"No need to make desperate moves" !!

EL for MY+.

TamRa you could be on to something. Very Hot Streaks. The last one I remember was Tulo & the Rockies.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#260379) #
Chisolm tweets Santos undergoing shoulder surgery, club expects him to be ready for ST next year.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#260380) #
From the Dec 26, 2011 thread:

Me: "Why not sign Hideki Kuroda to a two-year deal? Sure, he's not a #2, but he could shore up the rotation nicely, giving the Jays 200 IP or so with decent peripherals..."

TamRa: "[Cecil is} better than what he did last year, but he could very well be the 6th best option here. But, again, how do you know if you don't put him out there? What if he IS good enough to pitch in the AL East and you never find out because you are throwing $12 mil at Kuroda? .... By the way, importing a 37 year old Japanese soft-tosser from the NL West to the AL East doesn't exactly fill me with confidence..."
Kasi - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#260384) #
There is no point even bringing up Kuroda. He wasn't going to sign here. He made it well known that he was going to a top contender or staying on the west coast. Toronto never had a shot at him.

Now Edwin Jackson...
greenfrog - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#260385) #
No one is perfect and I have made lots of questionable calls - it's in the nature of being a fan (or a GM, for that matter). What I find annoying is the revisionism. Before the season you argued (at great length) that the Jays had ample starting pitching depth (comparable to that of the Rays), that this would be a good year for seeing what we have in Cecil (in lieu of adding depth by chasing Jackson, Kuroda or someone similar). Fair enough - but at least own that position later on.
Kasi - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#260386) #
Not sure who you're responding to. I never said we had starting pitching depth comparable to the Rays. Maybe you're thinking of Tamra?

My point was bringing up Kuroda or Fielder or some of those guys as people we should have gone after is pointless. They were not going to sign here. Toronto does have issues getting Free Agents to play here that are hard to deal with (being in Canada for one, the turf on the field, being in the AL East and not being the Yankees/Sox, not having the payroll of a top team, etc).

Now a guy like Jackson, or someone else I would have been happy to get, and would have rather seen the money go there instead of for Cordero. Not sure why AA didn't balance his acquisitions between RP and SP and went all the way on RP. Maybe he overestimated the depth like Tamra, who knows.
uglyone - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#260387) #
If the Rays lost Price and Moore in addition to Niemann, they'd be lacking SP, too.

speaking of the rays, remember when everyone here was upset we didn't make any good signings like Pena or Scott?
greenfrog - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#260404) #
Good point - Lind actually has a higher OPS than Pena at this point. TamRa is looking pretty smart at this point for giving Pena the thumbs-down months ago (if I recall correctly).

The Rays actually did suffer a significant starting pitching hit when Niemann (who was doing well) went down in mid-May. They've still been able to field an excellent rotation in Price, Shields, Hellickson, Moore and Cobb, with Davis the likely #6 (he has been pitching well out of the 'pen). If you imagine an injury to Price, a two-man-down rotation of Shields, Hellickson, Moore, Davis and Cobb would still be pretty respectable.

Gotta give the Jays credit for hanging tough despite the injuries. Thanks to a nice performance from Villanueva and the bullpen, the team is only 1.5 games behind LAA and Baltimore for the two wild card spots.
scottt - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#260405) #
There's only 3 teams behind the Jays. Very entertaining.
uglyone - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#260406) #
* - average brought way down by leaving their final starts in the first innings


Morrow (27): 13gs, 6.0*ip/gs, 3.01era, 3.48fip, 3.89xfip, 3.82siera
Price (26): 18gs, 6.6ip/gs, 2.80era, 3.46fip, 3.30xfip, 3.41siera

Romero (27): 19gs, 6.1ip/gs, 5.04era, 5.18fip, 4.52xfip, 4.66siera
Shields (30): 18gs, 6.6ip/gs, 4.44era, ????fip, ????xfip, ????siera

Alvarez (22): 17gs, 6.3ip/gs, 4.36era, 5.19fip, 4.39xfip, 4.42siera
Hellickson (25): 16gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.48era, 5.46fip, 4.97xfip, 4.91siera

Hutchison (21): 11gs, 5.3*ip/gs, 4.60era, 4.45fip, 4.00xfip, 4.02siera
Moore (23): 17gs, 5.9ip/gs, 4.42era, 4.43fip, 4.53xfip, 4.29siera

Villanueva (28): 3gs, 5.7ip/gs, 1.59era, ????fip, ????xfip, ???siera
Niemann (29): 7gs, 5.0*ip/gs, 3.38era, 3.30fip, 3.82xfip, 3.81siera

Drabek (24): 13gs, 5.5*ip/gs, 4.67era, 5.59fip, 5.04xfip, 5.36siera
Cobb (24): 9gs, 6.3ip/gs, 4.89era, 3.40fip, 3.57xfip, 3.49siera

Cecil (25): 5gs, 5.3ip/gs, 6.75era, 5.66fip, 5.09xfip, 4.76siera
Archer (23): 2gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.86era, 2.30fip, 2.69xfip, 2.50siera

Laffey (27): 4gs, 5.8ip/gs, 3.52era, 4.46fip, 4.16xfip, 4.26siera
Ramos (28): 1gs, 2.2ip/gs, 0.00era, 4.95fip, 6.04xfip, 7.40siera

Ricky's rough year has really set back the comparison for the Jays, but I'm not sure there's as big a gap between the two rotations as some think.

Especially when you consider the impact of tropicana field on the rays' pitching numbers - 3.09era at home, 4.41era on the road. (same thing happens every year - last year it was 3.16era at home, 4.04era on the road).


I still agree with the sentiment that I would have rather gone with our internal options this year than grab some veteran "inning eater", even though the injuries have pushed that argument to its limits for sure.

Of course, I always wanted us to be adding one more legit top-of-the-rotation type pitcher, and still do.


scottt - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#260408) #
The upcoming Yankees series will be a big test of the Jays rotation. Sabbathia being the Yanks 5th pitcher isn't likely to help.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#260410) #
"I still agree with the sentiment that I would have rather gone with our internal options this year than grab some veteran "inning eater""

I'm sure first-place NYY and Washington are happy they went with "innings-eaters" like Kuroda, Pettitte and Jackson, too. They aren't front-of-the-rotation starters but they sure as heck are pitching like solid mid-rotation ones - something the Jays are in dire need of. And they cost only cash on a short-term commitment - no prospects.
Alex Obal - Sunday, July 15 2012 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#260411) #
I sense semantic confusion. To me, an "innings eater" is a guy about whom the best thing you can say is that he eats innings. The best thing you could say about Kuroda was that he had been a dead ringer for Tim Hudson four years running, now five. Jackson, he has a live arm and is an auto-2.3 K/BB. Pettitte, his last season he put up a 3.28 ERA in Yankee Stadium. Jason Marquis? Well, he eats innings...
greenfrog - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#260414) #
Yes, I agree. I think people often use the term "innings eater" for rhetorical purposes. For example, someone might say, "I was in favour of acquiring a front-rotation starter, but not a mediocre innings-eater like Jackson or Kuroda." This sets up something of a false choice, as if teams are perpetually forced to choose between players like Zack Greinke and Brad Penny. For many teams, pitchers like Jackson and Kuroda can fill a valuable niche in the middle of a rotation.
bpoz - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#260416) #
Please clarify. Last year Romero pitched like a #1. This year he is not pitching like a #1, but he puts in 6IP/game, is that enough to be an innings eater.
scottt - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#260420) #
Someone who is expected to provide 200+ innings of 100+ ERA+ ball.
John Northey - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#260422) #
When I think 'inning eater' the first name to mind is Jim Clancy.  Lifetime 98 ERA+, regularly over 200 IP in prime.  He actually was a bit better as in his prime he was at 106 ERA+ (1980-1988) but with Jimmy Key, Dave Stieb and Doyle Alexander it is easy to be shifted down. 

Generally I'd put it as a guy who you'd expect to be around a 95 ERA+ with 200 IP - solid but not great.  Livan Hernadez was like that most of his career outside his 2 years in Montreal.

Chuck - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#260423) #

Jason Marquis? Well, he eats innings...

I think it's difficult to truly chew through innings and not be at least mildy effective. Marquis doesn't and isn't, at least not any more. And because you need to be good enough to stay in the game long enough, I think the term "innings eater" is too often used as a pejorative.

When I think of inning eaters, I think of starting pitchers who can give you 180-190 IP with a middling ERA, who are more reliable than most at staying healthy and while having minimal potential for a Cy Young caliber season, probably won't stink either.

With respect to Alex's remark about Marquis, Marquis' 2006 season (194 IP, 6.02 ERA) does portray inning eating in its most negative and stereotypical light. The Cards won the World Series that year with Marquis not even making the post-season roster. His job, presumably, was to spare everyone else from being overused.

But I think that level of stinkitude while serving as an "innings eater" is comparatively rare.

Two examples of recent innings eaters for me have been Garland and Marquis. Both had very modest pitching skills, but were utile enough to be valued assets:

John Garland 2002-2010: ERA+ from 91 to 128, avg 205 IP (no truly stinky seasons)
Jason Marquis 2004-2009: ERA+ 114, 103, 74, 100, 101, 116, avg 196 IP (just one stinky season)

It's a rare team that would have a hard time finding a spot for someone like this in a rotation. You don't want to ask them to be your best starting pitcher, but their predictable healthy, middle-of-the-roadness are valuable assets.

Edwin Jackson appears to be a present day version, averaging 200 IP a year for the 4 years before this one with ERA+ from 95 to 125. He'd be a welcome addition to any rotation.

scottt - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#260430) #
It's easier to eat innings in the AL. In the NL, a pitcher might get pulled for a switch hitter with gas left in the tank.
TamRa - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#260449) #
"From the Dec 26, 2011 thread:"

There are no replies to the 12/26/2011 thread, which is a 10 Photos thread.

I assume you got the dates wrong, but as I was looking for that thread I found this, from 12/22/11:

In Reply to John Northey having said this:

"At this point it probably makes sense, if they can't get a true ace, to just sign some marginal ML pitcher to eat innings if we don't have a full 5 man ready to go staff in April."



I replied:

I do NOT want the jays to throw money at a marginal guy to "eat some innings," I'd be okay with signing Rich Harden, but that mainly because he'll either be very good, or he'll be hurt, and if he's hurt we have options to fill in. But as for taking care of things in April, I'd run this out there:

Romero
McGowan
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil v. Drabek

And now I'm already six options deep. if you have two problems here (say McGowan gets hurt again and Drabek isn't back to form) then, as you note, there Villianueva and Listch, and also Carreno and Perez (all of which I'd work as starters until at least the middle of ST) before you have to dip into the minors. Now, admittedly I might fill out the Vegas rotations with, say, Chad Gaudin or Kyle Davies (since both were with the team late last year they have some familiarality) or some such just in case I have a need and the three options in the upper minors are stumbling, but I wouldn't go out and get, say, Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis just to hold a place.

-----------
later in the thread, this:

to qualify:

I'm very happy if it's Oswalt, I consider him a top-of-the-rotation guy, not filler. I'm pretty happy if it's Harden, for the same reason (though he's apparently made of glass- you get what you can out of him and don't overpay)

>>I can live with it if they sign Jackson or Kuroda although I don't really think it's necessary, the Jays will get solid work from the most likely and value for the money they spend if it's not a crazy contract.
TamRa - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#260465) #
somehow I lost part of that in my haste.

The rest of the point was...

"To me, if you are trying to win every game possible in 2012, then add a starter, if you are trying to be the best team you can be from 2013-2020 and beyond, you need to see who's real and who's a poser and you do that by putting them out there. Even if you take some lumps along the way.

I get the whole reaction that comes from sending stiffs out there - the Dana Eveland's of the world - even if the circumstances demand it watching those bums is frustrating. but when the guy taking his lumps is a guy who might turn out to be very valuable over the next few years, I can live with that."


-----------
Point in all that being that every conversation and comment has context. YES I get it wrong sometimes, as do we all. And that risk is inherent to the conversation. But in the context of that particular discussion, my opinion had to do with not just the value of Kuroda (or whoever) but with the relative value within the context of the team's situation and long term plan.

I did, in fact, think Kuroda in our division carried some risk - almost every potential signing carries some risk and all of us look at potential signings and try to estimate the level of risk. He has, in fact, mildly exceeded my expectations. That's just one opinion among hundreds I've expressed here. Win some, lose some.
TamRa - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#260469) #
"I'm sure first-place NYY and Washington are happy they went with "innings-eaters" like Kuroda, Pettitte and Jackson, too. They aren't front-of-the-rotation starters but they sure as heck are pitching like solid mid-rotation ones - something the Jays are in dire need of. And they cost only cash on a short-term commitment - no prospects."

Well, they might not be #1 or #2 but they are certainly more than the sort of pitcher I was referring to as an "inning eater"

As if Petitte were ever available to us. Obviously he wasn't. The story is Kuroda wasn't either.

That doesn't mean you are always going to be right - I suggested Colon as a potential target, and in the off-season I would have filed him in the group of guys I didn't want to persue.

And I stand by that.

Without KNOWING then what we know now, there was no role for him. Now there is. Losing 3/5 of your rotation and most of your bullpen to season ending (or almost so) injuries will change your situation just a bit.

Why are we supposed to ignore that circumstances have changed?

And why, by the way, are we supposed to ignore that in light of the new circumstances I banged the drum for Ben Sheets, who would only cost us money and not prospects?

Saying "I'd rather see what Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil have rather than bring in Bart Colon" is a considerably different statement than saying "I'm content to stick it out with Aaron Laffey when Ben Sheets is out there to be signed"

Expecting to retroactively apply a wildly different set of circumstances to comments made seven months ago is hardly logical.
TamRa - Monday, July 16 2012 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#260476) #
"No one is perfect and I have made lots of questionable calls - it's in the nature of being a fan (or a GM, for that matter). What I find annoying is the revisionism. Before the season you argued (at great length) that the Jays had ample starting pitching depth (comparable to that of the Rays), that this would be a good year for seeing what we have in Cecil (in lieu of adding depth by chasing Jackson, Kuroda or someone similar). Fair enough - but at least own that position later on."


Own it?

I've only said a half dozen times or more in the last month that I not only own it but stand by it.

At the time, it was correct.

IMNSHO.

Here's something for you to wrap your head around, for the 4th time or so:

Things.
Have.
Changed.

What is true in December is not necessarily going to be true in July. And the Rays? they have exactly ONE more win than the Jays do as of this writing.

14% of their starts went to guys not in the opening day rotation.
28% of starts for the Jays have gone to players not in the opening day rotation.

Our sixth guy was Hutchison, there's was Cobb - who pitched better?
Our seventh guy was Cecil, there's was Archer
Chavez for us, Ramos for them.
Villianueva for us, they haven't gone to a ninth guy yet.
We've also gone to a ninth guy, Laffey.

In 25 starts, the Jays 6-9 starters have collectively posted a 4.84 ERA

The Rays 6-8 starters, in 12 starts, collectively have a 4.54 ERA - that's close enough to be comparable, and Chavez wasn't even a guy I was counting in the spring. If you count McGowan, as was assumed all spring, then we are actually down to the 10th option and still in the same ball-park.

On the front five...
*Morrow was compatible to Price before the injury
*Alvarez has done worse than Hellickson but there's less than a run difference between them
*Both Romero and Shields regressed some, Romero more so (and no one was arguing we needed to add pitching because of Romero)
*Drabek is a lot closer to Moore in ERA than anyone including me would have expected
*Carreno basically was a placeholder when McGowan couldn't answer the bell. Neimann was as good as I might have expected from McGowan, but lasted longer before he was hurt. I don't think the comparison of the two was irrational, but it's unfair to Carreno to expect him to be that good.

So having lost one of the projected front five before opening day, and having lost three more out of the five most used starters, and having seen one presumptive options fail to make it out of ST, and having seen two AA guys the GM called legitimate options regress in a huge way, and having resorted to guys none of us would have guessed would be used...they are STILL just ONE game behind the Rays.

I said they had comparable depth? I'll own that claim.

Gladly.

92-93 - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 03:52 AM EDT (#260484) #
For heaven's sake, stop pretending like David Price and Brandon Morrow were any bit comparable.

Brandon Morrow 2010-2011 325.2ip 21-18 4.62era 1.33whip
David Price 2010-2011 433.0ip 31-19 3.12era 1.16whip

The difference between Price and Morrow is far larger than Morrow and the worst qualified pitcher over 2010-2011 in ERA, John Lackey at 5.26.
92-93 - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 03:57 AM EDT (#260485) #
And let me qualify that last one, before you tell me you were comparing their 2012s - It was a 77 inning sample size, one where Morrow's ERA was drastically lower than his peripherals suggested it should be. Part of being a frontline starter is showing the ability to throw 200 innings annually with a low ERA, and it's a bit premature to be all excited about Morrow when he's yet to display that ability. His injury shouldn't have surprised anyone.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 04:17 AM EDT (#260487) #
in the off season we were discussing the potential results going forward...

Having "gone forward" almost half a season before the injury, the results were entirely comparable.


Albeit, in the off-season I was comparing Romero and Price and giving the edge to Romero, and Shields to Morrow and claiming Morrow would likely be better going forward - the context of the referenced discussion was the staff vs. the staff, and what might be the expected outcome. The individual comparisons don't really matter that much.
Morrow was pitching to relatively the same results at the time of the injury.

And what does any of this have to do with not being surprised at the injury? An oblique strain is hardly the sort of thing one predicts based on, well, anything.

Thomas - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#260516) #
If you count McGowan, as was assumed all spring...

Only by people who had never looked into his medical history or were being wilfully blind about it.....

92-93 - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#260517) #
You were comparing Romero and Price and giving the edge to Romero? Therein lies the problem. You're an incredible homer.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#260520) #
On this blistering hot day in Toronto, can I make a plea for civility and cool?  Find a patio table with a cool drink on it and a Bob Marley song playing, and disputes about who was right or not in the off-season or language usage lose their edge. 
92-93 - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#260523) #
I just got back from 5 days in Vegas, Mike. This feels like a cool spring day to me. Nice breeze.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#260579) #
"You were comparing Romero and Price and giving the edge to Romero? Therein lies the problem. You're an incredible homer."

I misspoke (in the latest post above). I gave the edge between those two to Price, even though Romero pitched better last year.

that was the whole juxtaposition of the top 2 spots, the guy who pitched better in 2011 in each comparison was not the guy i thought was the better bet to pitch better in 2012 (Price over Romero, Morrow over Shields)
TamRa - Tuesday, July 17 2012 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#260580) #
"Only by people who had never looked into his medical history or were being wilfully blind about it....."

And that list of people apparently including John Farrell and Alex Anthopoulos. McGowan WAS penciled into the front five through all but the last few days of ST. Cecil was through the first half of ST

On March 1 the presumptive five starters to break camp was:

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan

There was little dispute about this. In a couple of weks Cecil pitched his way out and Drabek was making the best case to be included; in the last week of Spring McGowan was waylaid (by an injury completely unrelated to his previous medical history, by the way) and that led to the turning in perhaps a bit of desperation to Carreno.

It's not that great a stretch to note that the original depth chart went:

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan
Drabek
Carreno
Hutchison
Laffey
Jenkins
McGuire
Litsch
Villianueva
Perez

And by Opening day...

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil - failed to progress
McGowan - injured
Drabek
Carreno
Hutchison
Laffey
Jenkins
McGuire
Litsch - injured
Villianueva
Perez

And by June 15...

Romero
Morrow - injured
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan - injured
Drabek - injured
Carreno - regressed
Hutchison - injured
Laffey
Jenkins - major regression
McGuire - major regression
Litsch - injured
Villianueva
Perez - injured

Whatever one might assume about his potential for injury, and only a fool would have presumed it was anything but high, he WAS in the top five on the depth chart until the last week of ST.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#260582) #
in the last week of Spring McGowan was waylaid (by an injury completely unrelated to his previous medical history, by the way).

Sure, the original injury was unrelated, but it isn't anymore. Since the end of April, McGowan has been suffering shoulder discomfort. Shocking, I know, for someone who has had rotator cuff and labrum problems for years.

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