For a few years now, I've figured that players moving up from Las Vegas to the majors would hit for a batting average about 80 or 90 points lower in the majors than they are hitting in Vegas, as a general guideline.  I find it's helpful to get an idea of how well a player is hitting in Vegas, since the Vegas stats are so inflated by the park and the league as a whole.  This was based on rough observations over a couple of seasons. 

There have been a lot of players who have played in Vegas and in the majors this year, so I just went through the stats of those players to check to see how accurate that estimate is.  I included Gomes, Snider, Gose, Cooper, Thames, Lind, Hechavarria and Sierra.  Those players have gone a collective 708 for 2,239 in Vegas so far this year for a batting average of .316.  In the majors they have gone 149 for 630, for a collective batting average of .237, so the drop off this season so far is 79 points.  Something to keep in mind when you see a guy hitting .300 in Vegas.

If you can salvage Hutchison's arm without losing a year of his career, that's a good thing for both the team & the player

I think the talk at the time was that Hutchison would inevitably lose a year of his career, it was just a matter of which year, i.e., surgery now or surgery later. I wonder if Hutchison might have been motivated to consider rehabbing and continuing to pitch now with the idea of pitching well enough to further entrench himself in the team's future picture. Or maybe he just didn't want the surgery unless there were absolutely no other options. It's probably easier for us to be cavalier about his livelihood than he is.

I wonder how many Porsches Dr. Andrews has.

And Dustin McGowan will have shoulder surgery this week too.  Maybe it s a two for the price of one special, or maybe the Jays are cashing in some of their frequent surgery points.

If you have followed the news from Florida, everytime Dustin McGowan starts to throw his shoulder hurts.  This operation will try to figure out why.

everytime Dustin McGowan starts to throw his shoulder hurts.

As much contempt as I have for Rogers in general and their seemingly tight-pursed ownership style in specific, I can't help but feel that the contract McGowan signed had less to do with his on-field potential and more to do with PR and, dare I say it, honest to goodness goodwill.

McGowan has clearly been dealt a very crummy hand, health-wise. Everyone is obviously pulling for him, but who really expects him to ever pitch again?

If Hutchison has his surgery by the 15th he will have 18 months prior to Pitchers and Catchers reporting in 2014 to recover, while Drabek will have 20 months to recover for 2014.   I've always thought 18-24 months was when a Pitcher is most fully recovered.  Unfortunately, Teams hope for 12 months, which causes problems in itself. 

Luis Perez should be available to pitch in Spring Training, 2014.  Unfortunately, Teams think Relievers recover faster.  Wrong!  Santos' surgery turned into a straight-forwarded cleanup, which should have him ready for Spring Training, 2013.

I'd guess there'd be a healthy dropoff in performance from any AAA group moved up to the bigs...that being said, though, i think it's safe to knock off a good fifty AVG points and a hundred OPS points from vegas guys to normalize their productiin to average AAA numbers.

Combining small sample numbers for 6-10 players to support a position is still small samples (in which Sierra and Cooper are hitting well so far.)

Marcum Likely to Miss 2009 with Tommy John Surgery

I watched game after game after game after game, listening to Ricciardi-speak, listening to TV broadcasts, listening to questions why Marcum was being pushed in his rehab.   I remember it well.  Then my work changed and I missed most of it since.

People are suggesting 12 months as time enough, I however prefer 18-ish months as best.

The internwebby is immense, nothing ever disappears, including people to lazy to look it up themselves.

And as people are too lazy to do the research themselves, I'm not going to continually help so consider everything as:     In My Opinion or ignore it, whichever makes you happier.

Did you notice Marcum was shut down somewhat later to avoid injury?

I thought he had a non-arm-related setback (lower back injury) during his rehab that bumped his timetable back to the point of the season being effectively over.

2011 - Boston          90-72
2010 - Boston          89-73
2009 - Texas           87-75
2008 - New York        89-73
2007 - Detroit/Seattle 88-74
2006 - Chicago         90-72
2005 - Cleveland       93-69
2004 - Oakland         91-71
2003 - Seattle         93-69
2002 - Boston/Seattle  93-69
2001 - Minnesota       85-77
2000 - Cleveland       90-72

This is Villanueva's big chance to cash in so I assume he is looking for a three year deal.  I understand he wants to start so he will look to sign somewhere where he feels he will have a good chance to start.  He will likely look to get paid as a starter, a number that is higher than a middle relievers pay.  With all the Jays injuries he would have a good chance to start in Toronto but would you guarantee him a starters role and would you pay him for three years at a starters salary?

Those are likely the discussions taking place in the background.

Assuming a rotation of Morrow/Romero/Alvarez/Happ/FA or McGowan

McGowan? Someone is an unabashed optimist.

I can't help but think of this scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail when I think of McGowan's continued misfortunes.

[ARTHUR chops the BLACK KNIGHT's left arm off after a short battle]

ARTHUR: Now stand aside, worthy adversary.

BLACK KNIGHT: 'Tis but a scratch.

ARTHUR: Well, what's that then?

BLACK KNIGHT: I've had worse.

ARTHUR: You liar!

BLACK KNIGHT: Come on you pansy!

I fear that John Farrell will be making an appearance on an episode of Hoarders one of these days. His apparent desire to have the biggest collection of relievers in the majors is worrisome.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind going back to an 8-man bullpen right now. Despite the sweep in Tampa, the bullpen really wasn't worked that hard over the series. Lyon, Delabar, Lincoln and Oliver should all be available tonight, with Loup and Janssen being iffy and Jenkins likely still unavailable after his 3-inning debut on Tuesday. Despite Romero's struggles this year, he's pitched at least 6 innings in 17 of his 23 starts this year. The 7-man bullpen was rested enough to get through tonight's game.

If the team was concerned about not having a long man, they should have sent Jenkins back down and brought up someone fresh. Had they sent Jenkins back down after his appearance in Tampa, he could have made a start in the minors on regular rest and then been available for recall by the big club around the time he was due to start again.

When Lawrie was placed on the DL on Tuesday, the reporters in Tampa said a reliever was most likely being called up.  This was before games 2 and 3 in Tampa.  So the 8th reliever decision was not based on need, it was a more generic decision.  Not that that explains why we need an eight man bullpen.

True. I believe Aaron Laffey was called up and sent down on two occasions without ever appearing in a game. Farrell may have had a premonition he was going to have a bad outing and decided against using him. :-)

One possible explanation for the 8-man bullpen that occurred to me: the team might be concerned about pitchers not getting enough rest after catching a red-eye flight from Las Vegas (or wherever the 51's happen to be playing), so they're preemptively calling someone up rather than waiting for an actual need to arise. If the Blue Jays are able to secure Buffalo or Rochester as a AAA affiliate next year, I wonder if that might also mean seeing the 8-man bullpen less frequently.

And, like the Jays, several of Boston's problems have also been at least partially self-inflicted. See: trading Youkilis for Zach Stewart.

If you think Baseball Players don't pay attention to the webby and all the negativity therein,especially with the twits, you are mistaken .   You do, why shouldn't they.  Optimism and pessimism go hand-in-hand in making up a good blog and keeping it healthy and vibrant.  Beating each other over the head because of our opinion's differ is something children and politicians do.  Even the village idiot is better behaved.   Now I feel better. Next: 

July 25th was the low point of Romero's career: 1.1 IP, 4 Hits, 0 HR, 8 ER, 6 Walks, 1K in a 16 - 0 LOSS.  Before that time: 20 games,122.1 IP, 122 Hits, 17 HR, 71 ER, 62 BB, 84K.  Since then, he's pitched: 3 Games, 20.0 IP, 15 Hits, 0 HR, 6 ER, 9 Walks, 14K - shows he's "over the hump" and getting better. This is a small sample, but it is encouraging.   Is he an Ace?   NO, there are only 6 (and many arguments) in all of baseball, and he's not even close.  Is he our #1 pitcher going forward?  NO, Morrow's most likely to take over that.   It depends on A.A. to get someone better.

After much thought and personal examination I find that while I'm not always right, I'm never wrong.  Have a nice day.