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The bullpen shuffle continues, as last night's winning pitcher (that would be Jesse Chavez) has been DFA'd. (Quick update there!)

And coming up to replace him... Chad Jenkins?



Well. This is interesting.

The young pitcher goes into long relief? Holy crap, this organization is going to do something sensible with a young pitcher?

Express your surprise below.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
PeteMoss - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#261847) #
The injury bonanza may not support my point... but I really don't think the Jays have been reckless with their young pitchers.

As for Jenkins... this is his long term role if he ever makes it... and everyone else has had a shot.. so why not.
John Northey - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#261848) #
Weird move. Jenkins has just 4.5 K/9 in AA this year, 6.0 lifetime in the minors. K rate is generally viewed as a good indicator of a guy who can miss bats and Jenkins sure has trouble with that.

Now, Alvarez has gotten away (more or less) with a lower rate in the majors but in the minors he was at 6.5 K/9 - still low but better than Jenkins. Plus his minor league walk rate was lower, at 1.7 BB/9 vs Jenkins 2.2 lifetime rate.

Not sure what is going on here other than an attempt to see if Jenkins has 'what it takes' in the majors in an effort to use him as a piece in a trade.
TamRa - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#261851) #
Given what we've read about Jenkins' issues being mechanical and McGuire's being mental, I would not have been as surprised to see the latter promoted (under the thesis that he needs something good to happen to get out of his own head)

With Jenkins...i dunno. Maybe they think the major league staff can help with the mechanics some? Who goes off the 40 man roster for this?


Magpie - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#261852) #
Chavez has actually been Designated for Assignment.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#261855) #
Only someone who has watched Chavez knows how good he is. This smells like an offseason enhancing move. 1) We will definitely know how good Jenkins will be. 2) He's a fresh arm. 3) If anyone has any better idea, feel free.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#261857) #
The young pitcher goes into long relief? Holy crap, this organization is going to do something sensible with a young pitcher?

Too kind.  Jenkins was hit very hard in double A, and he's brought up for the long-relief role, not to give a fine young prospect time to adjust but rather simply because they need a warm body. 
acepinball - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#261858) #
Jenkins is likely up for a few turns in the rotation. He had to be added to the 40 man roster this season to keep him away from the rule 5 draft, so he was certainly going to come up in September anyways.

McGuire has had such a nightmare season that I imagine they'll preserve an option and keep him off the 40 man until next year when he needs to be added.
PeteMoss - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#261860) #
Completely off topic.. but based on the mega small sample size, if Gose and Rasmus are both on the team next year and starting, I'd play Gose in Center. I think he covers more ground out here with his speed.
scottt - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#261861) #
Romero, Morrow and Happ should last in the rotation until the end. Villanueva can probably remain there as well since he's a free agent and no longer needed in the pen. Alvarez will have to be shut down at some point. They can do what they want with Laffey.

Maybe the take away here is that Cecil remains a starter while Jenkins will be tried in long relief.
uglyone - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#261862) #
Alvarez pitched 160 innings last year after 120ish in each of the two previous years. He's currently on pace to pitch 190-200ip so I'm not sure he needs to be shut down.

I'm guessing Romero, Alvarez, Villy, Laffey, Happ for now and as long as noone else gets hurt Morrow comes back and boots one of the last 3 back to the bullpen. Unless there's more injuries I doubt any of Jenkins or Cecil or anyone else gets any more starts.
TamRa - Sunday, August 05 2012 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#261863) #
I say again, the Jays need to nail Villianueva down to an extension, IMO.

By the way, Laffey is there's unless they non-tender him because he doesn't have the service time to walk I do think Laffey is more likely to be pushed out by Morrow than Villy.




Oceanbound - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 03:00 AM EDT (#261865) #
The Jesse Chavez Experience may make a return yet, as despite being DFA, Chavez remains on the 40 man roster. Jenkins took the space that had been vacated by Drew Carpenter.
scottt - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#261867) #
Villanueva has left the team for personal reason and will not be making his next scheduled start.

Magpie - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#261868) #
Villanueva is just being moved back to Wednesday, Happ moves up to Tuesday.

The Chavez thing is odd; they didn't need to clear a spot on the 40 man roster, but they did need a spot on the active roster. As a new waiver period had begun on August 1, Chavez needed new optional waivers before being sent down; but the Chavez transactions both (he was recalled and sent back down) happened to take place on the weekend, when waiver requests are not accepted by the commissioner's office. Just a strange accident of timing.
Chuck - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#261869) #
Magpie's fluency in small print is either impressive or eerie.
Magpie - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#261871) #
It wasn't me - click on the link Oceanbound provided.
Chuck - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#261872) #
It wasn't me

I believe Andy Fastow gave a similar defense.
Mike Green - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#261873) #
Oddly, the Jays are still only 5 games out of a playoff berth on August 6 despite all of the misfortune.  Stranger things have happened to lesser ballclubs.
92-93 - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#261874) #
The whole business days for the waiver wire shpiel was eliminated in the new CBA.

The Rays were 9 games back in September last year and made the playoffs. Of course they didn't need to leapfrog the entire league.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#261876) #
Chad Jenkins came up now for a look-see because Toronto's due to have big 40-Man Roster problems this offseason. Chances are everyone that's border-line for making it will get a look this year.
dan gordon - Monday, August 06 2012 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#261877) #

For a few years now, I've figured that players moving up from Las Vegas to the majors would hit for a batting average about 80 or 90 points lower in the majors than they are hitting in Vegas, as a general guideline.  I find it's helpful to get an idea of how well a player is hitting in Vegas, since the Vegas stats are so inflated by the park and the league as a whole.  This was based on rough observations over a couple of seasons. 

There have been a lot of players who have played in Vegas and in the majors this year, so I just went through the stats of those players to check to see how accurate that estimate is.  I included Gomes, Snider, Gose, Cooper, Thames, Lind, Hechavarria and Sierra.  Those players have gone a collective 708 for 2,239 in Vegas so far this year for a batting average of .316.  In the majors they have gone 149 for 630, for a collective batting average of .237, so the drop off this season so far is 79 points.  Something to keep in mind when you see a guy hitting .300 in Vegas.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#261880) #
I'd guess there'd be a healthy dropoff in performance from any AAA group moved up to the bigs.

that being said, though, i think it's safe to knock off a good fifty AVG points and a hundred OPS points from vegas guys to normalize their productiin to average AAA numbers.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#261883) #
Drew Hutchison apparently needs Tommy John surgery after all, so he'll be gone for all of 2013 as well. Just what the doctor ordered. Or Dr. Andrews did, at least.
Sano - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#261884) #
Well then, the focus is all the more on the acquisition of some good starting pitching in the off-season.

I hope that the Jays didn't just prolong the inevitable by not putting him under the knife when the injury was first spotted.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#261885) #
Sano, the Jays really have no say in the matter of surgery. It's between the doctor and patient. If the doctor says there is a chance the injury could heal without surgery and the patient choose to wait and see how it responds, it's ultimately his decision (as with Stilson's shoulder).
Sano - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#261886) #
I was responding to this, admittedly, ambiguous statement in Elliot's piece (http://www.torontosun.com/2012/08/06/jays-hutchison-to-have-tommy-john-surgery)

"On June 15, Hutchison left his start against the Phillies after 12 pitches with pain in his elbow. He visited Cincinnati specialist Dr. Timothy Kremchek, who confirmed the teamís original diagnosis of a sprained elbow ligament. Immediate surgery was suggested.

The Jays were worried that the sprain might be an early warning sign and throwing again throw with a weakened ligament could require reconstructive surgery ... the same as Drabekís."

So if immediate surgery was suggested, but the Jays opted to try to get him through it by rest and rehab, then I wonder whether they just prolonged the inevitable.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#261888) #
Sano, you're still making it sound like it was the Jays decision. It wasn't. Hutch made the decision.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#261889) #
Based on my limited understanding: There are injuries that obviously need surgery - in Drabek's case, for example, he got hurt, everyone said "Surgery!", and that's that.

Then there are lesser injuries that could, in theory, be dealt with via rehab & conditioning. If you can salvage Hutchison's arm without losing a year of his career, that's a good thing for both the team & the player; obviously, if that doesn't work, he could lose even more time.

Ultimately, even if the wrong choice was made, Hutchison has lost a month or so - not such a big deal next to the 12-18 months he's going to miss now.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#261890) #
Rogers announced today the acquisition of Armco Pitcher Repair (slogan- "every ligament re-used at least twice or your money back").  CEO Nadir Mohamed cited Bruce Springsteen's "We take care of our own" as an inspiration for the move in a press conference. 
Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#261891) #

If you can salvage Hutchison's arm without losing a year of his career, that's a good thing for both the team & the player

I think the talk at the time was that Hutchison would inevitably lose a year of his career, it was just a matter of which year, i.e., surgery now or surgery later. I wonder if Hutchison might have been motivated to consider rehabbing and continuing to pitch now with the idea of pitching well enough to further entrench himself in the team's future picture. Or maybe he just didn't want the surgery unless there were absolutely no other options. It's probably easier for us to be cavalier about his livelihood than he is.

I wonder how many Porsches Dr. Andrews has.

 

Gerry - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#261892) #

And Dustin McGowan will have shoulder surgery this week too.  Maybe it s a two for the price of one special, or maybe the Jays are cashing in some of their frequent surgery points.

If you have followed the news from Florida, everytime Dustin McGowan starts to throw his shoulder hurts.  This operation will try to figure out why.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#261895) #
When Marcum underwent his TJ, I felt that he was the type of pitcher who could overcome it and thrive.  I feel the same way about Hutchison, and perhaps even more strongly.  We will see him in 2014.



Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#261896) #

everytime Dustin McGowan starts to throw his shoulder hurts.

As much contempt as I have for Rogers in general and their seemingly tight-pursed ownership style in specific, I can't help but feel that the contract McGowan signed had less to do with his on-field potential and more to do with PR and, dare I say it, honest to goodness goodwill.

McGowan has clearly been dealt a very crummy hand, health-wise. Everyone is obviously pulling for him, but who really expects him to ever pitch again?

Sano - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#261898) #
I feel the need to clarify. My assumption from the beginning was that it was Hutch's decision and indeed, other news stories covering the most recent decision to have surgery have confirmed this. My reaction was just to the statement in Elliot's piece that I didn't remember reading elsewhere. Namely that immediate surgery was recommended. So my point was that if the initial diagnosis was that dire, why prolong it? Even if it was Hutch's decision, the Jays should have put their foot down and followed medical advice.

Anyway, water under the bridge, it was only a month and in the grand scheme of TJ surgery recovery, that's not really a big deal.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#261899) #
hypobole's point was that the Jays couldn't have "put their foot down", they can't force Hutchison to have surgery if he doesn't want to.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#261900) #

If Hutchison has his surgery by the 15th he will have 18 months prior to Pitchers and Catchers reporting in 2014 to recover, while Drabek will have 20 months to recover for 2014.   I've always thought 18-24 months was when a Pitcher is most fully recovered.  Unfortunately, Teams hope for 12 months, which causes problems in itself. 

Luis Perez should be available to pitch in Spring Training, 2014.  Unfortunately, Teams think Relievers recover faster.  Wrong!  Santos' surgery turned into a straight-forwarded cleanup, which should have him ready for Spring Training, 2013.

I'd guess there'd be a healthy dropoff in performance from any AAA group moved up to the bigs...that being said, though, i think it's safe to knock off a good fifty AVG points and a hundred OPS points from vegas guys to normalize their productiin to average AAA numbers.

Combining small sample numbers for 6-10 players to support a position is still small samples (in which Sierra and Cooper are hitting well so far.)

John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#261902) #
I suspect the Jays felt that there was no need to 'put their foot down' as surgery means no pitching in 2013 regardless, and no surgery means he could've been useful in 2013.  Plus up until now the 18 month window kept 2014 open.  There is a chance he won't be available now until late 2014 but that was a risk with any surgery.  Rule #1 with surgery - avoid if at all possible as once under the knife one never knows what will come out.
TamRa - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#261904) #
18 months is the extreme outside edge. Lately it's been 10-12 months,  you have to look no further than Marcum and Listch for examples.

This is being done quickly enough that Hutch will have the opportunity to "rehab" over the last 4-8 weeks of the 2013 minor league season and be at full strength the following spring. Drabek is obviously a couple of months ahead of him but Drabek has to work on actually pitching well, not just on being healthy.


Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#261906) #
There's healthy, and then there's effective. Litsch was back in the majors a year after his surgery, but he wasn't very good.

I suspect Drabek's days as a starter may be done. Two TJ surgeries before your 25th birthday may be a sign you're not meant to start.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#261907) #

Breaking NewsMarcum Likely to Miss 2009 with Tommy John Surgery

It is expected to be confirmed today that Shaun Marcum will need to undergo Tommy John surgery, which would put him out of the lineup for approximately a year (which would really mean 17 months, until March 2010). Thanks to various posters for the heads up.See: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20080919135329405 And in 10-12 months, injuries increase, as to being normal - since when.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#261911) #
Heh - funny reading that article.  I was optimistic as always, hoping the Jays would take a risk and blow $20+ a year on CC Sabathia that winter (200+ IP each year since, 137/136/145/121 ERA+'s).  Sigh.  Turns out it took $121 over 7 to sign him.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 07 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#261912) #
It's funny to go back into the time machine.  My favourite comment was this one:

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 23 2008 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#192757) #

Right again, John.  Out of curiosity, is September-of-the-previous-season the all-time record for Earliest Writeoff Of An Above-Average Team's Playoff Chances in Batter's Box history?  Mick, can we get a ruling on this?

Sorry Mike, totally missed this earlier. Your Official Ruling on This Matter is NO.  Here in Texas, Ranger fans are already looking forward to, say, 2011, when the bulk of the best minor league pitching depth in baseball should pay dividents. (Yes, yes, "should" is a naughty word.) But as a sidebar note to that ruling, officially speaking, September-of-the-previous writeoffs are, technical term coming here, waydamnearly.


It sure is cool when the future arrives early. 




Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 02:10 AM EDT (#261917) #
Chad Jenkins' call-up just might be possible A.A. is following an old tried-and-true method of using a Starter in the bullpen, until he figures it out, then Starting him.  A lot of Pitchers who became good Starters for the Jays did this (during the first run to glory).  A lot of Relievers came this way too.  And it settled the 'hash' of others.
TamRa - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 03:10 AM EDT (#261918) #
It is expected to be confirmed today that Shaun Marcum will need to undergo Tommy John surgery, which would put him out of the lineup for approximately a year (which would really mean 17 months, until March 2010). Thanks to various posters for the heads up.See: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20080919135329405 And in 10-12 months, injuries increase, as to being normal - since when.

Marcum pitched 15 innings in the Jays minors in August of 2009 which means that he was back on a mound getting "game ready" around 10 months from the date of surgery.

the fact that that 10-12 month recovery landed him right at the end of a season so that he had to wait out a winter is irrelevant to the point in time when he COULD pitch. it's true that when a pitcher comes back he doesn't always pitch well right off, but it does happen.

Now as it happens, an August surgery means that in all likelihood Hutch won't pitch in the majors in 2013 and if he does it will be in September. And if he had went for Surgery in June, he might have been up as early as July but there would be no way to predict whether or not he would have been effective. traditionally even if a guy pitches okay when he returns you assume the first season back he won't be back to his old self.

None of that is in dispute. I simply disputed the idea that a pitcher couldn't get back before 18 months had passed. History shows that's not the case.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 05:23 AM EDT (#261921) #
My contention is 10-12 months is not enough time to "be back".   Marcum was being rushed back as Ricciardi was desparate again.   Did you notice Marcum was shut down somewhat later to avoid injury?  Tommy John pitchers are pitching as soon as possible after the surgery (retraining the new ligament), and take a long time to get back.   The fact that Marcum was away from the majors almost 18 months showed in his effective return.  As another poster said - healthy doesn't mean effective, as this suggests: http://www.law.tulane.edu/uploadedFiles/Student_Org_Sites/Sports_Law_Society/19%20-%20Marcum.pdf.  Too often TJ Pitchers develop other problems when they're rushed.  And why are TJ Pitchers rushed - desperate G.M.s.  Even A.A. is not immune from "unusual moves": 1) 10 player trade receiving Free Agent (effective), Older Relief Prospect (great stuff - control issues), Average Starter (Starting/Relieving - too soon to tell). 2) Quality MLB OF traded for relievers (possibly very good Relievers) when unable or unwilling to acquire a Starter.  Why rush TJ pitchers, they are ready when they are ready?
Oceanbound - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#261922) #
Nobody's suggested that pitchers should be rushed back from surgery. You've also given zero evidence to back up your assertion that Marcum was on a rushed timetable.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#261923) #

I watched game after game after game after game, listening to Ricciardi-speak, listening to TV broadcasts, listening to questions why Marcum was being pushed in his rehab.   I remember it well.  Then my work changed and I missed most of it since.

People are suggesting 12 months as time enough, I however prefer 18-ish months as best.

The internwebby is immense, nothing ever disappears, including people to lazy to look it up themselves.

And as people are too lazy to do the research themselves, I'm not going to continually help so consider everything as:     In My Opinion or ignore it, whichever makes you happier.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#261925) #
Jordan Bastian on August 11, 2009 on Marcum's status.

"He's healthy," Ricciardi said. "There's nothing wrong with him, but there's no reason to rush him. He's going to pitch next year for us. He'll be like 17 months post-op at that time. He feels good. We'll probably just keep throwing him, but there's really probably no need to get him to the big leagues at this point.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#261926) #
I think it is safe to say 12 months is possible but any organization which is trying to be realistic will plan on 18 months.  Doing otherwise is risky.  I could see a lot of these guys coming back to help a September pennant drive in 2013 - mainly as filler to allow the regulars to get a break when the score is 4 runs off one way or the other.
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#261927) #
There is no universal right when it comes to a player's rehab. If the player keeps on their prescribed throwing schedule with no setbacks, then whether it's 10 or 14 months is irrelevant. 18 implies they had to be shut down at some point, either due to a setback or two, or the end of a season.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#261928) #
My understanding is that pitchers can theoretically return to the mound 7 months after surgery and return to throwing in competition 2 months after.  The problem is not physical recovery, but regaining sharpness after a long lay-off.  How many starting pitchers have returned to the MLB level 12 months after surgery and been immediately effective?  I suspect that the answer is very few. 
Oceanbound - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#261929) #
Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John in September 2010, started throwing in February 2011, then came back in September 2011 and pitched 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. But of course, it's Stephen Strasburg. Whose team is treating him so carefully he's supposed to be shut down later this year despite his team being in a pennant race.
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#261930) #
Right, but if the worry is the long layoff, wouldn't you want to get them back into competition as reasonably soon as their body is able to handle it? That way, you get the rust knocked off. Why would you arbitrarily delay the recovery by another 6 months, otherwise?
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#261931) #
The next starter in that rotation is another great example: Jordan Zimmerman. Shut down in July '09, and performing about the same in Aug '10. Of course these are anecdotes, not evidence. It would be interesting to track all the TJ honorees (separated by starter or reliever) for the past 5 years. Maybe on some over-caffeinated night...
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#261933) #

Did you notice Marcum was shut down somewhat later to avoid injury?

I thought he had a non-arm-related setback (lower back injury) during his rehab that bumped his timetable back to the point of the season being effectively over.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#261934) #
Zimmermann did not pitch about the same when he returned in 2010 although his ERA was less than 1/2 a run higher.  He pitched roughly like Brett Cecil has this year with 8 homers surrendered in 31 innings.  Strasburg, however, was pretty damn amazing. He had even better control than usual on his return. 

You would think that there would be little harm in bringing a pitcher back to long relief for 3 innings or so to start and then moving them up.  Originally, the Nats tried to have Zimmerman go 6 and it didn't work out well and then they scaled him back and he seemed to have adjusted by the end of 2010. 

I am not saying that there is any harm in bringing a pitcher like Drabek or Hutchison back to the big club in September, 2013 if ready physically.  I just wouldn't expect that they would contribute at the usual level.





bpoz - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#261939) #
My memory of Marcum was that he came back & only pitched in the minors & was shut down before the minor league season ended.
He was given a job in the 2010 rotation as well as the Opening day assignment. He pitched 195 Innings in 2010.
Halladay told Cito that he would love the way Marcum pitched.

What does it mean? I dunno.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#261940) #
It is really hard to fathom the Angels of 2012.  They finished 86-76 last year.  They have added Trout, Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Frieri, but aren't really doing any better.  Three pitchers have exploded on them and that seems to have done it; they brought in Greinke and he's getting tagged.  They have a fine team defence, according to all of the measures.  It might be an example of why it is not always that easy to get average performance out of your starting pitchers, and how important that can be. 
Magpie - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#261941) #
They have added Trout, Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Frieri

Sort of. They added Frieri and Trout at the end of April. The Angels went 8-15 in April (with Pujols hitting .217/.265/.304). They've played about .580 ball since their lousy start, which ain't bad.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#261942) #
I would like AA to make actually winning a priority for 2013.

IMO there is a good chance that 88-92 wins will get you the 2nd WC this year.

So that is what I would like for our record to be in 2013. Even if 88-92 wins is not good enough.

The 2010 85 win team was changed... Wells & Marcum. The 2011 team 81 wins was changed Lawrie, Rasmus, JPA etc...

With Hill & Lind being so bad after their 2009 season, it is hard for me to predict what should happen. I think the 2012 offense when healthy "Late May till Bautista & JPA went down" was very good. Will they be good in 2013 if healthy? I hope so. The 2013 offense being good is my major positive. I would be very disappointed if it was not. I cannot see the rotation and pen being strong. IMO depth will be addressed but I doubt elite talent will be added. I think Santos is an elite pitcher, young & proven, but Oliver while good & consistent does not make it to elite status for me. However maybe a non elite pitcher or 2 does surprise and become elite.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#261943) #
The Angels have blown something like 18 saves this year as well, that can't help.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#261945) #
The Angels have blown something like 18 saves this year as well, that can't help.

It's actually 16 BSvs in 15 games (they've gone 4-11), which is still the most of any AL team. The worst month for it, as you might expect, was April before Frieri took over for Walden. They had 6 BSvs and went 0-6 in those games.

there is a good chance that 88-92 wins will get you the 2nd WC this year.


That will usually get the job done. This should be the last dozen or so teams that would have won the second AL wild card:

2011 - Boston          90-72
2010 - Boston 89-73
2009 - Texas 87-75
2008 - New York 89-73
2007 - Detroit/Seattle 88-74
2006 - Chicago 90-72
2005 - Cleveland 93-69
2004 - Oakland 91-71
2003 - Seattle 93-69
2002 - Boston/Seattle 93-69
2001 - Minnesota 85-77
2000 - Cleveland 90-72

You'll notice that the additional playoff team is spread pretty evenly among the three divisions, with a slight edge to the Central (4 outright winners, 1 tie); followed by the West (3 outright winners, 2 ties), and then the East (3 outright winners, 1 tie)
grjas - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#261946) #
"In 2013...I cannot see the ... pen being strong."

Huh?
electric carrot - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#261947) #
Toronto Blue Jays to Tampa Bay Rays.
Bug meet Windshield.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 08 2012 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#261948) #
Missing Bautista and Lawrie, and with Snider gone, it isn't much of a lineup.  Yunel Escobar's a fine shortstop, but he is not a clean-up hitter. 
Beyonder - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#261949) #
I'm late to this view, but given the uncertain state of next years' rotation, re-signing Carlos V is becoming increasingly urgent. Another very solid start last night.

Also, I know this will never happen, but I would love for Cooper to receive full-time at bats for the remainder of the year, splitting 1st base/DH with Encarnacion.

Lastly, I know many on this board don't think much of Greg Zaun as an authority, but last night he ripped Gose (and Hech to a lesser extent), saying that he looked pretty much clueless at the plate, and needed a "complete overhaul" of his swing. Regardless of whether you agree with him, I find it refreshing to hear someone on the major league broadcast who is willing to level serious criticism. In contrast, Mike Wilner has not criticized anyone since he was slapped down after the Cito incident.

bpoz - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#261950) #
Thank you for your response grjas, regarding my not seeing the pen being strong in 2013.

Let me say that "strong" is a subjective word.

This is my opinion. I love Janssen as our closer. Hopefully he can be as good in 2013. I expect/hope Oliver is back next year and as good. Both have a very good recent history.
But after that I see uncertainty. I like Fraser if he will resign, he has been consistently fairly good. That is all I will give the pen. I probably am being hard on them. Better add Carlos V as being good.
The following additions were not good enough for me, Gregg & Dotel(not bad), FF, Rauch, Cordero. I liked Zep.

So what I am saying is Janssen & Oliver. After them who knows. AA will add 1 or 2 veteran arms to the pen most likely and I expect the same success rate ie mediocre to bad. With Rauch & Cordero clearly being bad & expensive their type will be given every opportunity to succeed/fail in high pressure situations. I see their failure causing us to not contend, but then their success should help us contend.

I welcome all input on this subject. We have a lot of available arms, maybe we get the results Atlanta got last year. But that is a maybe.

John Northey - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#261951) #
Guys like Villanueva are nice to have, but only as support not as 'count on' - 600 IP in majors with a 103 ERA+ mainly in the pen is not something that is 'great', it is just 'solid'.  He might have figured something out this year and is suddenly going to be a top 3 guy, but I sure wouldn't count on it. 

The rotation is #1 for 2013, followed by figuring out 1B/DH/LF (EE and who?).  Then comes the pen.  Yes, it is a pain with injuries and ineffectiveness but pens are very unpredictable unless you are Mariano Rivera.  Guys come out of nowhere to do well, guys fall apart out of nowhere as well and injuries are always a big issue.

If resigning Villanueva is the biggest move this winter then I fear for 2013 and beyond.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#261952) #
I don't agree with Zaun at all.  Gose's swing looks fine to me (and my understanding is that the Jays re-made his swing and most scouts were impressed).  There are some pitches that he just can't handle yet.
Beyonder - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#261953) #
"If resigning Villanueva is the biggest move this winter then I fear for 2013 and beyond."

Agreed. I think AA and everyone at Rogers knows that if they hope to build on the momentum achieved this year (so far an extra 5G in attendence per game -- though this may drop now that the team has fallen out of contention) then they need to start winning. The only way that can happen is if they address the rotation. As I've posted before, there are lots of FA starting pitching pieces slated to come on the market that could help this team, and many of the traditional big FA spenders will not look to be taking on salary. I know you more grizzled fans will say I'm setting myself up for dissappointment, but this has got to be the off-season where AA takes the FA plunge.

Re: Villanueva just being solid. Maybe, but I think he has turned the corner in the last two years with the Jays, and frankly, we could use some solidity. I don't think his current value to the team is reflected in his career ERA+.
Gerry - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#261954) #

This is Villanueva's big chance to cash in so I assume he is looking for a three year deal.  I understand he wants to start so he will look to sign somewhere where he feels he will have a good chance to start.  He will likely look to get paid as a starter, a number that is higher than a middle relievers pay.  With all the Jays injuries he would have a good chance to start in Toronto but would you guarantee him a starters role and would you pay him for three years at a starters salary?

Those are likely the discussions taking place in the background.

Beyonder - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#261955) #
Mike. I'm just a career baseball watcher -- never a player, so am in no position to critique. But I will say that as a baseball watcher his at-bats thus far make me wince -- not just becasue of the high strikeouts and mediocre results -- but because he seems to set up so late in the pitcher's delivery. He doesn't seem to load until the ball is almost out of the pitcher's hand. Maybe it's nothing, but I can't remember seeing a player who gets set to hit so late.
TamRa - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#261956) #
Regarding the bullpen, and at the risk of saying things which have already been said, i see depth not weakness. That's not to say there is no uncertainty of course - this season illustrates. But that's the nature of relief pitching and there's no such thing as a bullpen which has certainty.

(Assuming a rotation of Morrow/Romero/Alvarez/Happ/FA or McGowan)

Janssen - no reason to expect a problem
Oliver - assuming he doesn't retire, no reason to expect uncertainty
Lincoln - I don't know how much better he has to pitch this year to be counted on
Santos - recovery from injury is a concern but one shouldn't over-react to that
Delenbar - home park splits having been noted

that's a perfectly solid core, one that's on par with or better than the vast majority of other bullpens, or with previous attempts to build a reliable pen.

In addition to that the last 2 (or three, sigh) slots can draw upon:

David Carpenter
Aaron Loup
Evan Crawford
Sam Dyson
Marcus Stroman
Chad Jenkins
and potentially others (McGuire, Stilson?)

And on top of that there's Cecil, who I expect to be given every chance to be the second lefty and Jesse Litsch if he can come back.

Am I opposed to Affeldt, Howell or some such? Not at all. Do I think it's a high priority area of need? Not remotely.

-------------
Someone else mentioned that there was a big class of free agent starters but a lot of bodies does not necessarily mean that very many of them would be, say, better than Alvarez and Happ (in 2013)

Looking over the list, and placing them in (my own opinion of) some kind of rough order ignoring the cost (and without looking up stats):

Grienke
Dempster
Jackson
McCarthy
Liriano
Marcum
Loshe
Kuroda
Lewis
Bedard
Harden
Corria
Blanton
Colon

And it gets worse from there. We don't have a place for a Jeff Francis or a Aaron Cook in the middle of our rotation IMO

And the competition will be feirce, which means you should be prepared to take risks (McCarthy) or pay more than the guy is actually probably worth because that's where the market is  None of this constitutes me arguing against a signing, i'm supportive of the idea (albeit i won't be n the crowd calling it a travisty if they don't either, there are other ways to supplement the rotation)


I'm not as sold on the idea that the offense is fine as some seem to be. RF, CF, 1B, and 3B seem solid. Catcher is ok within the context of what you expect from a catcher with the potential for an upgrade if/when d'Arnaud steps in. SS is okay within the context of what shortstops are hitting now but it's not a plus position in the lineup.

Left worries me because I'm not convinced Gose is ready but I worry the jays may be willing to let him grow in the majors (and hope he does) and I see nothing to like about 2B  - and no obvious FA solution.DH is Lind&prayer or...what? Ortiz?


for all the talk of throwing out the money this winter, I for one am not at all impressed with the class of options in terms of how they match up with our needs.

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#261957) #
"Oliver - assuming he doesn't retire, no reason to expect uncertainty"

He'll be 42 next year, so I'd say there's a decent amount of uncertainty. He's miraculously defied age for the past 5 years, but you never know when it'll come to an end.
Chuck - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#261958) #

Assuming a rotation of Morrow/Romero/Alvarez/Happ/FA or McGowan

McGowan? Someone is an unabashed optimist.

Magpie - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#261959) #
McGowan? Someone is an unabashed optimist.

Or an incorrigible comedian. When I saw that, I burst out laughing. And then I instantly felt bad for poor Dustin. But he'd probably hurt himself watching baseball on television.
John Northey - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#261960) #
I'd expect a trade for an ace or near ace level pitcher rather than free agency given AA's track record.  If they are serious about 2013 that is.  Hopefully Gose or Sierra or some other kid does good enough to convince other teams he is worth a lot.  Of course, if they do too good then the Jays might just keep him.

To improve it is easiest if there are very clear holes, which there are in LF, 2B (free agent), DH or 1B, and in the rotation.  LF/DH could be internally filled (Sierra/Gose/Lind/Cooper) as could 2B (Hech) making the rotation high priority.  Still, after what we've seen I sure wouldn't count on Gose or Hech in 2013 and I can't imagine trusting Lind to be productive again either.
Beyonder - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#261961) #
"a lot of bodies does not necessarily mean that very many of them would be, say, better than Alvarez and Happ (in 2013)"

Well, if the test for acquiring a FA starter is whether they will be necessarily better, then no one on your list makes the grade. If the test is whether a pitcher is likely to be better than Happ or Alvarez, then the top 9 names on that list meet that test. To that I would add Joe Saunders, as well as a couple of guys whose options will either not be picked up (Peavy, Santana, possibly Haren?) or exercised by the player (Westbrook).

If the Jays were truly ready to let Gose grow in the majors, wouldn't they let him hit against left handers in what is increasingly looking like a nothing year? As it stands he seems to be sitting one game in three.
MatO - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#261962) #

I can't help but think of this scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail when I think of McGowan's continued misfortunes.

[ARTHUR chops the BLACK KNIGHT's left arm off after a short battle]

ARTHUR: Now stand aside, worthy adversary.

BLACK KNIGHT: 'Tis but a scratch.

ARTHUR: A scratch? Your arm's off!

BLACK KNIGHT: No, it isn't.

ARTHUR: Well, what's that then?

BLACK KNIGHT: I've had worse.

ARTHUR: You liar!

BLACK KNIGHT: Come on you pansy!

greenfrog - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#261963) #
Assuming a rotation of Morrow/Romero/Alvarez/Happ/FA or McGowan

Which, no doubt, will be rated just a hair below Tampa's rotation of Price/Shields/Moore/Hellickson/Cobb or Archer.
neurolaw - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#261964) #
Tamra last season I may have agreed with you - but after this years unmitigated pitching disaster I think that we should not assume anything about the rotation.

John, getting a premium ace level pitcher has not happened yet because you need to give up premium talent and AA has not been able to pull the trigger. I don't see that changing this off-season.

So what are the Jays left with - they can't go into 2013 with an unproven young staff and while it would be nice to get elite pitching what the Jays really could do with is average pitchers. The Happ trade makes me think that the Jays realize this and to be honest the FA class fits that mold well enough.

The elite pitchers part - I think Magpie put it well in a previous post - the Jays are going to have develop their own or get lucky with a FA signing.

Personally in my opinion I think Morrow is the only one who has a guaranteed spot next year. Everyone else's spot is fair game.
Magpie - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#261965) #
I'd expect a trade for an ace or near ace level pitcher rather than free agency given AA's track record. If they are serious about 2013 that is

I don't expect any of the truly desirable free agents will be standing in line to play for a last place team in a foreign country. I assume - I hope! - Anthopoulos understands that, and will be trying to trade for pitching help. But that's much, much easier said than done - there are no-trade clauses, there are teams holding out for a billionaire's ransom. The deal isn't always there to be made. You can't count on solving the rotation problems - which are huge, immense - that way either.

I think they've got no choice but to grow their own. But I don't feel good about growing them at the major league level. I think all too often when you throw young kids into the knife-fight that is the AL East, it actually stunts their development. You want to work on developing new skills in this environment? (And that's if they don't actually hurt themselves in the attempt to play at this level.)

The Jays have plenty of pitching prospects, and if you have 15 good pitching prospects, you'll probably come up with three or four actual major league pitchers. Probably. Eventually. So I think this off-season - just like last off-season should have been - needs to be a winter of looking for low cost band-aids to tide you over until the kids are actually ready. It can be done, and it can actually work. (Better than Thompson-Ohka-Zambrano, anyway, which was a similar idea.) Just last year, the Yankees found Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon on the scrap heap, got 50 useful starts from them, and won the division. You can't count on that, of course. But they need to buy time for some young pitchers to emerge.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#261966) #
I'd expect a trade for an ace or near ace level pitcher rather than free agency given AA's track record.

I don't think AA's track record suggests either. If anything, it suggests he'll be trying to acquire a guy wo could be ace-level, but has stumbled upon hard times or lost his lustre.

If Ricky Romero pitched for another team, AA would probably be trying to trade for him.
92-93 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#261967) #
Well played, greenfrog. To follow will be an xFIP chart to prove how deep our pitching staff is.

If the Jays front office is even considering contention for 2013 it's imperative, as it was last offseason, to add 2 starters. Last winter we were told the contracts being handed out were too big/long, that the requested packages for pitching were too valuable, and that in season trades were easier. Well, in the last calendar year AA's significant moves have been to add Sergio Sirotka and give up on Aaron Hill, leaving the team without a 2B for 2013. AA did nothing at the trade deadline when we were told it would be easier to find a trading partner, and I don't see how this team is going to go about improving its rotation if its married to its prospects and can't spend money on the FA market. Something has to give.
92-93 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#261968) #
"I think they've got no choice but to grow their own."

If this is the case, just trade Bautista. Stop with the mediocrity and do it right. If we're pinning our playoff hopes on Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino making an impact while Bautista is still around and elite we're going to be disappointed.
neurolaw - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#261969) #
Well put Magpie - the Jays need average major league pitchers to hold the fort down while the youngsters develop.

The Jays need to bring their prospects into the bullpen first to let them learn to get hitters out first and then move them to the rotation.

I think the Happ trade and Jenkins being brought into the bullpen suggests that AA may have realized this. I envision Stroman being brought along in a similar way.


Mike Green - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#261970) #
The Rays traded Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.  Alas, the Jays do not have a much-hyped prospect with discipline, plate and otherwise, issues to acquire that solid starter and middle infielder who would be so valuable. 

Anthopoulos has a much tougher hand to play going into 2013 than he did entering 2012. 

greenfrog - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#261971) #
Obviously there are huge question marks surrounding the rotation, but I do think the bullpen has the potential to be pretty good in 2012, with the usual caveats about injuries and relief pitcher volatility from year to year.
neurolaw - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#261972) #
92-93 I think trading Bautista is a fair point. However AA was on the radio after the trade deadline and said that he is happy with the line-up and the bullpen and now the rotation is the thing he will work on. In some ways I agree, if the rotation is even average the line up and the bullpen can help the Jays can win quite a few games.

But on the other side I can see the breaking point with Bautista is coming. If the Jays remain mediocre next year the issue of Bautista will need to be dealt with.
92-93 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#261973) #
Actually, MG, that's exactly what Travis Snider was, IMO, and when he was pulled from the game I assumed he was going to be part of a package with a Low-A arm headed to CHC for Garza.
neurolaw - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#261974) #
I don't think Travis Snider was going to bring that kind of talent back. Our glass half full view of Snider is getting in the way of reality.

The conversation of getting an elite pitcher starts with D'Arnaud or Lawrie.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#261975) #
Agreed, 92. I immediately thought Snider and Nicolino (plus a lower prospect) for Garza.
JB21 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#261976) #
92, you sound like a fan who's team has hit a low in their season. Santos was a very good trade, injuries happen while the prospect we gave way isn't exactly lighting up the minors. And giving up on Aaron Hill? C'mon, surely you're better than that.
Magpie - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#261977) #
I immediately thought Snider and Nicolino (plus a lower prospect) for Garza.

It's easy to suspect that Garza was indeed Anthopoulos' target at the deadline - he's proven he can pitch in the AL East, the Cubs need hitters - but Anthopoulos, like everyone else, got scared at the last minute by the state of Garza's elbow. We don't know if that's what happened. But as it now turns out that Garza is probably done for the season, you can see what would have scared him.
92-93 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#261978) #
You may note, JB21, that I didn't criticize the KJ-Hill trade. I was merely stating what AA has done in the last 12 months. I liked the trade, but there's no question it hasn't worked out, and if I'm going to be sold on the Snider trade by the logic that the Jays have all these scouts and talent evaluators and know what they're doing then I think it's fair to mention a trade made within the last year in which they've horribly whiffed. Aaron Hill was not done.
92-93 - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#261981) #
08/09/12 Ronald Belisario roster status changed by Toronto Blue Jays.

Anyone know what that means? Claimed on waivers?
Mike Green - Thursday, August 09 2012 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#261982) #
Snider didn't have 10% of Young's hype or purported upside, and wasn't a first overall pick. Trading Snider and Nicolino for Garza (at this stage of his career) wouldn't be an obviously good thing to do.  At this point, I think that I would look at trying to acquire a low upside innings-eater presently in double A or triple A, or someone who has just arrived and is not superficailly doing so well (like Anthony Bass).

John Sickels, by the way, has a nice summary on the Jay minor league system today. 

TamRa - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 03:48 AM EDT (#261983) #
Which, no doubt, will be rated just a hair below Tampa's rotation of Price/Shields/Moore/Hellickson/Cobb or Archer.

The propensity of some here to continually invoke "I remember when you said something I think was stupid" ad infinitum is growing extremely tedious.Once, twice maybe go to that well and then LET IT GO.

That's the sort of thing we like to think we are above here...except when we aren't


If yall want an echo chamber where everyone is on the same page then, ya know, have fun with that.


Sano - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 05:15 AM EDT (#261984) #
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/despite-rash-of-injuries-fading-jays-still-drawing-good-crowds/article4472581/

Rogers is going to have some explaining to do if they don't pony up the money this off-season to find some proven starters and a big bat to help the team.
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#261985) #
From my BP e-mail today:

"What You Need to Know
Friday, August 10

Since losing Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez has stepped in admirably for the Yankees."

Bashing a baseball is one of the best remedies for a broken heart.


BlueJayWay - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#261986) #
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/despite-rash-of-injuries-fading-jays-still-drawing-good-crowds/article4472581/

Rogers is going to have some explaining to do if they don't pony up the money this off-season to find some proven starters and a big bat to help the team.


Well, we'll have to see what happens now.  The last home game the Jays played they went into it just a half game behind both Tampa and Baltimore for 2nd in the East, and were still only about 3 games out of a wildcard and were over .500.  They've lost 9 of 11 since and are even more injured and the season is realistically done.
Beyonder - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#261987) #
With two remaining home series against the Yanks, one against Texas, and one vs. Boston, The Jays are assured some relatively high year-end attendence figures. Those teams are all 30,000+ draws. I say relatively high because even though the numbers have improved, we are still 20th in the league in attendence according to ESPN.
Paul D - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#261988) #
Speaking of roster moves... who was called up to replace Lawrie?
Ryan Day - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#261989) #
The article on the Jays' site says they won't be making a move until today.
Mike Forbes - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#261990) #
David Carpenter has been chosen to take Lawrie's roster spot.
Oceanbound - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#261991) #
At this very moment a Rogers executive is cackling in glee at the fact that the team is able to save money by reusing their Carpenter jerseys.
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#261992) #
Hey, it's $300 on e-bay for one of those babies. If I were a Carpenter and you were a Blue Jay...
Original Ryan - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#261993) #
David Carpenter has been chosen to take Lawrie's roster spot.

I fear that John Farrell will be making an appearance on an episode of Hoarders one of these days. His apparent desire to have the biggest collection of relievers in the majors is worrisome.

I really don't understand the reasoning behind going back to an 8-man bullpen right now. Despite the sweep in Tampa, the bullpen really wasn't worked that hard over the series. Lyon, Delabar, Lincoln and Oliver should all be available tonight, with Loup and Janssen being iffy and Jenkins likely still unavailable after his 3-inning debut on Tuesday. Despite Romero's struggles this year, he's pitched at least 6 innings in 17 of his 23 starts this year. The 7-man bullpen was rested enough to get through tonight's game.

If the team was concerned about not having a long man, they should have sent Jenkins back down and brought up someone fresh. Had they sent Jenkins back down after his appearance in Tampa, he could have made a start in the minors on regular rest and then been available for recall by the big club around the time he was due to start again.

Gerry - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#261994) #

When Lawrie was placed on the DL on Tuesday, the reporters in Tampa said a reliever was most likely being called up.  This was before games 2 and 3 in Tampa.  So the 8th reliever decision was not based on need, it was a more generic decision.  Not that that explains why we need an eight man bullpen.

 

Dave Till - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#261995) #
I fear that John Farrell will be making an appearance on an episode of Hoarders one of these days. His apparent desire to have the biggest collection of relievers in the majors is worrisome.

Oh well - it's not as if there are hitters left in Vegas who deserve major-league playing time. At this point, the #1 callup looks like it would be Mike McCoy. And hasn't the poor man travelled enough already? :-)

I'm more worried about how quickly they shuffle their players back and forth. People seem to go down after one bad outing, only to come back up after their replacements have a bad outing. I guess that might be another reason why the Jays are bringing all of the relievers up - during any given game, Farrell can then shuffle through his D-grade relievers until he finds one that is having a good day.

On the whole, though, I'm going to cut Farrell and the Jays some slack. Any team that loses its first baseman, third baseman, right fielder, catcher (and grade-A catching prospect), three starting pitchers, a closer, and assorted other bullpen spare parts is not going to win even if the manager is a genius.
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#261996) #
For what it's worth, I would prefer if Yan Gomes got most of the work at third base with another catcher on the roster.  I don't think the apprenticeship for Hechavarria at third base is a great idea from a developmental perspective.  Anthopoulos should also have been scouring the waiver wire for a LF/1B type.  This is what happens you trade both of your realistic options in left-field, with a 1B/DH on the DL.



 

92-93 - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#261997) #
Without addressing the ridiculous hyperbole let me say that if you're willing to part with Snider for Lincoln then Snider & Nicolino for Garza is a no brainer, assuming there's no health concerns for 2013. Such a trade would've actually improved the Jays chances of competing in 2013 and if they didn't and Garza wanted to leave you'd recoup a first round draft pick in the process.
92-93 - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#261998) #
This is exactly what the organization should be doing with Hechavarria and I've been saying it for over a year. Expecting him to be a big league regular just because they spent 10m on him is silly. He hasn't given any indication that he'll be able to handle MLB pitching yet, so for me his role should start as a utility infielder covering 2B/3B/SS and you go from there. I also scoff at the notion that his development is somehow being hurt by playing him at 3B. If the Jays head into 2013 counting on Hechavarria as a starter I'll be really disappointed. Maybe Escobar, Johnson, and Lawrie wouldn't be having the seasons they're having if Farrell had a viable backup to spell them once a week or so.
Original Ryan - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#261999) #
I'm more worried about how quickly they shuffle their players back and forth. People seem to go down after one bad outing, only to come back up after their replacements have a bad outing.

True. I believe Aaron Laffey was called up and sent down on two occasions without ever appearing in a game. Farrell may have had a premonition he was going to have a bad outing and decided against using him. :-)

One possible explanation for the 8-man bullpen that occurred to me: the team might be concerned about pitchers not getting enough rest after catching a red-eye flight from Las Vegas (or wherever the 51's happen to be playing), so they're preemptively calling someone up rather than waiting for an actual need to arise. If the Blue Jays are able to secure Buffalo or Rochester as a AAA affiliate next year, I wonder if that might also mean seeing the 8-man bullpen less frequently.

Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#262000) #
Well, if you have decided that Hechavarria should be a utility player, start him at third base in Las Vegas for 10 games or so (at least).  The club did give him an audition at second base, but it's a very different position.  I have no difficulty with Hechavarria in a utility role if the club has better options in the middle infield for 2013.  It is not clear that they do.

As for Garza, he's not a significantly better pitcher than Edwin Jackson at this point (even before the injury) and you are going to get stuck with a $10 million plus bill for him in 2013.  It is questionable whether it is worth giving up Snider and Nicolino for that.  As of the deadline, you would have probably been better off keeping the two and spending the money on a free agent like, perhaps, Edwin Jackson.  And no, I don't think Edwin Jackson is the second coming. 

Ryan Day - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#262001) #
Maybe Escobar, Johnson, and Lawrie wouldn't be having the seasons they're having if Farrell had a viable backup to spell them once a week or so.

Maybe you could make that case for Johnson, though he's been pretty slump-prone throughout his career. But Escobar has been lousy all year - if he's been worn out since the beginning of April, there's something seriously wrong with his development. And you could sit Lawrie down every other game, but he's still going to crash into things on the days he does play. (I'm also not sure what the problem is with "the season he's having".)
92-93 - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#262003) #
What's the difference where Hechavarria gets "comfortable" at 3B? Have you seen the roster the Blue Jays are rolling out on a daily basis?

As bad as Kelly Johnson has been he's probably still the best option on the FA market for 2B.

I was leading the EJax battle cry all winter and showed how he was a different pitcher than the one we all remembered as a Devil Ray, but he reportedly turned down multiple multi-year offers and there's very little chance he'd come to Toronto on a one year deal, which would cost the Jays a first (second?) round pick.
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#262004) #
The difference between learning a new position at the major league level and at triple A during the middle of the season is that learning at the minor league level takes the heat off.  Hechavarria has enough to learn about hitting major league pitching without having to learn a new position too.  It's a developmental issue. 

While Kelly Johnson may be the best option in the middle infield, it would not surprise me at all if he chooses to go somewhere else.

scottt - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#262005) #
Can the Jays lose a pick by signing a free agent? I'm more inclined to presume a pick in the top 10 overall next year.
bpoz - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#262006) #
Lose a pick? Please help me understand the new CBA.
You only lose a pick for over spending on the draft.
A team (NYY) can sign any number of FAs for any $ amount without losing a pick. However they will have to pay a huge $ penalty based on the luxury tax parameters.

So there are reasons for trading AJ to Pittsburgh. Complicared rather than simple reasons.
bpoz - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#262007) #
With the injury disaster continuing, I was intrigued by the minor positive notions to me anyhow that were suggested. I mean we are stuck with this situation anyhow.

One was that with some 60 day DL players not coming back for 2013, but having to count on the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft, AA is going to give a look see to many eligible players. I see the value in it and agree but by putting S Dyson on the 40 man a year early you risk losing a guy coming off, possibly J Carreno.

The other notion was that if you audition enough players some may surprisingly stick. Laffey is making a case as good as 3 or 4 others for example.


hypobole - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#262008) #
it's now 5 games in a row our starting pitcher has given up multiple runs in either the 2nd or 3rd inning.
ogator - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#262009) #
The Blue Jays traded Travis Snider for a relief pitcher. It is enough to make a person weep. It is impossible for me to cheer for an organization that thinks a relief pitcher is worth Travis Snider. That might make sense if the Blue Jays were up to their noses in outfielders with power. They gave away the exact player they needed for one they have several of. Whatever were they thinking? And please don't quote a bunch of statistics and argue Snider had problems as a hitter.
What a stupid, stupid, stupid trade.
Dewey - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#262010) #
Guess who homered tonight for the Pirates, with two on?
Oceanbound - Friday, August 10 2012 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#262011) #
Carpenter has been sent down, McCoy called up. This is getting sort of funny.
John Northey - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#262012) #
Hopefully Rogers is collecting those frequent flyer miles from the players going back and forth - might cover the cost of a good player for next year :)

Wonder how many transactions they are up to now? The B-R transaction page doesn't list up/down stuff.
smcs - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#262013) #
Carpenter has been sent down, McCoy called up. This is getting sort of funny.

McCoy should have been up weeks ago.
Oceanbound - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#262014) #
Wonder how many transactions they are up to now? The B-R transaction page doesn't list up/down stuff.

You can try compiling all of them from here if you're bored. Which, by the way, tells me that the Jays have claimed Juan Abreu off waivers from Houston and assigned him to Las Vegas, while DFA'ing Scott Richmond. Guess what position Abreu plays. Go on, guess.
Ryan Day - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#262015) #
Whatever were they thinking? And please don't quote a bunch of statistics and argue Snider had problems as a hitter.

In the absence of arguments or statistics, all I can say is that Travis Snider's immigration papers were not in order, and he was about to be deported to the Czech Republic. A relief pitcher is much more valuable than an outfielder who cannot leave Eastern Europe.
JB21 - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#262016) #
Abreu has 12 k's in 6 MLB innings as well as 459 K's in 383 MILB innings.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#262017) #
Snider is off to a nifty 333/361/455 start (127 OPS+) with Pittsburgh (36 PA). He could be a very nice outfielder in that division.

If yall want an echo chamber where everyone is on the same page then, ya know, have fun with that.

Honestly, I think this is the pot getting a bit worked up about the kettle's appearance. Over the winter two of your signature positions (argued strenuously and at length) were that the Jays had enough pitching depth and that the Jays' starting pitching wasn't far behind the Rays' (I think you said that 14 or 15 WAR was a reasonably optimistic target for Morrow, Romero, Alvarez, Cecil and McGowan/Drabek). More power to you for taking a bold, attention-getting position, but you should expect to get called out if those predictions turn out to have been way off base.
Chuck - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#262018) #
Abreu has 12 k's in 6 MLB innings as well as 459 K's in 383 MILB innings.

He also has a career 5.6 BB/9 rate. To me, this is up there with the Cust signing. Just warm bodies to fill positions.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#262023) #
Middlebrooks has apparently broken his wrist. Both the Red Sox and Jays have been snakebit this season.

"Bad spot," Valentine said after Boston's 3-2 win. "He got hit pretty good in a bad place. ... He's in a lot of pain. I was hoping it was down on the meat. It was straight on the bone."

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8258475/will-middlebrooks-boston-red-sox-broken-wrist-report-says
Thomas - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#262028) #
Both the Red Sox and Jays have been snakebit this season.

And, like the Jays, several of Boston's problems have also been at least partially self-inflicted. See: trading Youkilis for Zach Stewart.

TamRa - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#262031) #
", but you should expect to get called out if those predictions turn out to have been way off base."

Just so I will know - HOW MAN times should i expect to be "called on it"?

Have you yet to sufficently make the point?

I'm quite certain the point has been cited over half a dozen times, at what point is it sufficently made?

Look, I have no problem saying "I thought X would happen and I was wrong" - about a great number of different things. Over the course of, what, six or seven years here, I'm sure I've been wrong more often than right and i expect that's true for most of us.

But - just to take an example - uglyone beat the drum HARD last year that Kelly Johnson was a significantly better hitter than Aaron Hill. Have I missed your repeated reminders to him about how wrong he was?

Nope. Didn't think so.

Nor should you have.

In fact, I spent a lot of time disagreeing with that position and *I* haven't spent any time tossing "I told you so" comments at him because it's silly and childish - particularly when it happens more than once or twice.


greenfrog - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#262032) #
Fair enough, but consider how many times you labelled others "negativists" for questioning whether (for example) the team's pitching was as good as TB's, whether Drabek was likely to bounce back, whether Rogers was investing enough in pitching, etc. Everyone gets it wrong, most of us fairly often. It's just that your optimistic ones were in heavy rotation over a number of months. It's not unreasonable to expect some blowback when they don't work out.
TamRa - Saturday, August 11 2012 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#262041) #
". Everyone gets it wrong, most of us fairly often. It's just that your optimistic ones were in heavy rotation over a number of months. It's not unreasonable to expect some blowback when they don't work out."

so it's your continution that no contrary opinion was oft repeated over the winter?

or that no ultimately incorrect opinion is oft repeated here?

I refer you again to ugly's dissertations on how much better off we'd be with Johnson rather than Hill, which were posted with considerable regularity even before we had any clue they would be traded for each other.

if there is anything which is true of strongly held opinions on this (and pretty much all other) forum it's that strongly held opinions are OFTEN REPEATED. And that includes the wrong ones as well as the correct ones.

And yet this seems to be one of the very few that's "getting blowback"

Particularly this oft-repeated blowback.

I ask again the question you have avoided answering: HOW MANY TIMES is it necessary for you to declare victory before your appetite for gloating is sated?

All I get from this is either you want a site which simply affirms your opinion as wise and just, or it's just me you don't want to hear from, and I much prefer not to read any personal animosity into it.

Either way, I can't say what I've said on the subject any more plainly so I'm off the subject.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 12 2012 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#262043) #
All I get from this is either you want a site which simply affirms your opinion

Actually, it seems to me that you're the one who wants a site that will affirm your officially sanctioned version of "optimism," while any dissenters are portrayed as nattering nabobs of negativity.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 12 2012 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#262047) #

If you think Baseball Players don't pay attention to the webby and all the negativity therein,especially with the twits, you are mistaken .   You do, why shouldn't they.  Optimism and pessimism go hand-in-hand in making up a good blog and keeping it healthy and vibrant.  Beating each other over the head because of our opinion's differ is something children and politicians do.  Even the village idiot is better behaved.   Now I feel better. Next: 

July 25th was the low point of Romero's career: 1.1 IP, 4 Hits, 0 HR, 8 ER, 6 Walks, 1K in a 16 - 0 LOSS.  Before that time: 20 games,122.1 IP, 122 Hits, 17 HR, 71 ER, 62 BB, 84K.  Since then, he's pitched: 3 Games, 20.0 IP, 15 Hits, 0 HR, 6 ER, 9 Walks, 14K - shows he's "over the hump" and getting better. This is a small sample, but it is encouraging.   Is he an Ace?   NO, there are only 6 (and many arguments) in all of baseball, and he's not even close.  Is he our #1 pitcher going forward?  NO, Morrow's most likely to take over that.   It depends on A.A. to get someone better.

After much thought and personal examination I find that while I'm not always right, I'm never wrong.  Have a nice day.

bpoz - Monday, August 13 2012 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#262088) #
For me, I like AA's definition for good starting pitchers. He wants #2s & #3s. I do not know what his definition of a #3 is. But he did define #2, 200IP with an ERA under 4.00 ie 3.? and he must do it for 2 seasons. I do not think the seasons have to be in a row, but I assume the gap cannot be too big.

As of now Romero qualifies. Litsch looked promising but... Alvarez may eventually also qualify, for his career 199IP 4.24 ERA. But it has to be done in 1 season. I like the definition, 200IP shows durability.
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