I don't think it matters how Buehrle pitches (unless he throws a no-hitter) because I don't think Toronto will hit well enough to win. I have noticed that when a player isn't hitting well he takes fewer pitches. When you consider how many swing at the 1st pitch, you realize the problems this Team is having.

Lets see where the Jays stand offensively at this point...  All standings are vs the 15 teams in the AL
Runs/game: 3.59 - 13th place, just ahead of ChiSox (3.56) but a good margin on Seattle (3.22) while in eyeshot of Tampa Bay (3.69) and Cleveland (3.73)
Runs Created/Game: 4.0 - 12th place
Batting Average Balls in Play: .259 - 14th place, 6 points ahead of Tampa Bay
Avg/OBP/Slg: 228/287/399 (league average when adjusted for the dome: 256/321/411)
OPS+: 86 good for 12th in league, just 2 points out of 14th place
Secondary Average: 275, 6th place : total bases-hits+walks+SB-CS)/AB a measure of what they do right outside of hit for singles
Isolated Power: .171 4th place - the part of slugging percentage without singles factored in
Power/Speed: 16.5 2nd place - indicates tons of power and speed, need both to do well here, Oakland is 1st with 17.5, Boston 3rd at 14.5, Angels last at 4.9
HR: Tied for 3rd with 20, 5 back of the Yankees
SB: 3rd with 14, 1 back of 1st place (Oakland and Boston) with just 1 CS which is the fewest CS in the league
BB: 11th with 45, well ahead of the White Sox with 26, well back of the A's with 73 (they are 15 ahead of everyone)
SO: 4th highest at 131 (no shock)
Sac Bunts: 0, the only team without one
IBB: 0, one of 4 teams without one

So basically digging through the numbers you see the Jays have all the power and speed expected but their inability to get singles is hurting them, as is their lack of walks.  Interesting that they haven't had a single sac bunt yet and that Bautista (or someone else) hasn't been intentionally walked yet.

I think the Jays would greatly benefit from having a solid LHB to hit 5th against RHP (perhaps someone like Lance Berkman, although he's getting up there in age). Superficially, Arencibia might seem like an appropriate "big bat" to slot into the 5th spot, but he's a career 220/274/432 hitter against RHP -- not good.

JP did a nice job in his first PA against Kuroda, though. The ump burned him by calling him out on a 3-2 pitch that was well outside.

Another sloppy game (so far). Bad error on Macier (didn't come back to haunt them). Misplay by Lawrie (cost 2 runs). Lots of weak at bats ending in pop ups and weak ground outs.

Well past time for robo-umps when it comes to ball-strike calls.  With pitch f/x in all parks and us being able to see the location/speed/movement of every last pitch there is no reason for human error when it comes to ball-strike calls anymore.  Tennis put in an electric eye for close plays, time for baseball to catch up.  To make umps happy perhaps have a 5th umpire on each crew who stays in the booth and is responsible for going over video of every play and if a field ump is wrong on a call he can call down and over-rule it, plus would be responsible for all error calls thus removing the bizarre situation where a guy will not call an error when one is needed due to a guy having a hitting streak or something going.  It would improve the game all-around by making more calls correct calls.

When he played for Toronto Vernon Wells was a dead pull hitter. Now he is on the Yankees and in the first two games I have seen him ground out to 2B with a runner on third and single to right field. On the radio Jerry Howarth said that one year Vernon did not have a hit to right field until the end of May.

I guess some credit goes to the Yankees for getting Vernon to think of the team. Why didn't he do that in Toronto?

Lind for Kawasaki to face Robertson, with 2 outs, man on 1st, down 3 runs and Davis on deck?  Wrong move.  Wait a batter.

...but it works anyway.

Gerry raises a good question.  The Angels were apparently unable to persuade Vernon Wells to take the outside pitch to right field either.  Perhaps it was easier to convince him playing in a park like Yankee where the porch is so inviting.
And Wells pokes another one to right-centre.

I suppose we could take comfort from this comment in Keith Law's latest chat (although it was made before the Jays' last two losses):

Erix (Brooklyn)

Small sample sizes and all, are there any team or individual performances thus far that have changed your opinion on them since Spring Training?

Klaw (2:06 PM)

No. I'm glad we could have this chat, though.

There's a lot of fault to go around on Aaron Loup's throwing error. Here's how the first base wheel play works:

1. The pitcher's job here is to anticipate bunt and bust to the third base side of the diamond. He is tasked with fielding anything in front of him and making a strong throw to the bag which the catcher will be directing him to throw to.

2. The first baseman's job is to anticipate bunt as well and cover the first base side of the infield. Coaches want their first basemen fielding the bunt as pitchers are the more likely to make the throwing error, so the first basemen needs to bust and make a play here.

3. The second basemen here is reading the hitters hands. When he sees the top hand of the hitter slide up the bat he needs to anticipate covering first. Once that ball is on the ground he needs to beat the runner to first base.

4. Similarly, the shortstop is reading the hitter's hands and his job is to cover second base and on a sharply hit bunt perhaps turn two at first or back door the runner at third. The shortstop is the last part of the "wheel" which is turning towards first base.

5. The third basemen, perhaps has the most difficult job in the infield here. His job is to play a few steps in at third and read the ball on the ground. He knows that the pitcher is covering his side of the field and should a ball be hit hard enough and close enough to the pitcher there's the chance for a bang-bang play at third. However, in the very rare situation that the hitter bunts the ball hard enough and essentially along the third base line he should make the play to first. The third basemen here is taught that he should only be making a play on this ball if it's obvious the ball is his and he can easily make an out to first. Anything else, or in between, is the pitcher's ball.

6. The catcher needs to make the call on where the fielder is going with the ball. He sees the field and the play developing and is thus the best positioned to make the call on where someone is going with the ball. In many respects it's obvious and routine, but it those tight situations that fielder needs to know where he should be going. The catcher here needs to make a few reads in a split second and most importantly, at the right time. The read is not right off the bat, but that split second later when it's clear the runner at second has had a bad jump, or the pitcher is slow off the mound, or the ball has been sharply hit.

Here's what went wrong then. Arencibia clearly made the call to throw to third far too soon and without reading that Lawrie had made a poor break on the ball, and Lawrie didn't read the play well at all. Loup then made an ill-advised throw and should've seen Lawrie's misplay and re-adjusted to throw to first. As much fault here lies with Arencibia and Lawrie as Loup. In many respects Loup made the physical error, while Lawrie and Arencibia made the far more egregious mental error. Unfortunately for Jays' fans these are the types of errors we will have to learn to live with from the two as they both lack that extra baseball sense for their positions. This is the sense that ultimately means so much in these crucial situations.

Wells pokes another one to right-centre

It's also possible we're seeing a decrease in bat speed (and him learning to adjust to it), something also indicated by the uptick in bases on balls. He drew just 36 BBs in two years in Anaheim; he had 8 in his first 14 games in New York. Being liberated from Anaheim has to have helped. He never could hit there, even when he was at his peak.

"Extra baseball sense", ha!

Unfortunate/frustrating play. I don't believe the wheel play was on, and even if Lawrie did everything right I'm not so sure the throw still doesn't go into LF.

We're not getting any breaks, and certainly not making things easy on ourselves, but the starting pitching is starting to heat up, we're getting a little healthier, things are looking up. (*knocks on everything)

Bottom line is simple. This is what? The 4th or 5th game already that the Jays have thrown away with poor defense, and plays that don't measure up to major league standard?

Maybe they would only have won half of those games without the mistakes. Let's be generous and say so, discounting the discouraging, "you have to be too fine" effect that this kind of poor defense has on pitchers. It has to be especially damaging to guys like Buerhrle and Hap, though RA Dickey can't be thrilled either, but we'll ignore this.

If we've thrown away 5 games already and half were salvageable, it means we've already cost ourselves at least 2 wins on the season. Look at this division with Boston, Tampa, the Yanks, etc. 2 games could easily be the difference, and if that's allowed to climb to 3 or 4 throw-away games, our odds look bleak. You just cannot do that in this division.

JB21,

Yes, there is such a thing. In scouting parlance it's referred too broadly as "makeup" or being a "gamer." That includes whether they're generally a good person or have drive for the game, or whether they have a special feel for the game.

The wheel play was most obviously on by the replay, and is almost always on when runners are on first and second in clear bunting situations.

The chances Loup throws the ball into left field are marketed lower when throwing to a still target than to a moving target in this case. Your point that you're not sure Loup throws the ball into left field irregardless is taken, however, that I maintain chances are significantly lower if Lawrie and Arencibia do their respective jobs and thus make Loup's physical act of throwing that much easier. That is what infielders are taught--to make the pitcher's play easier--and it's not what happened here.

Without being too rude here, I'm going to assume from your comments you've played little of the game or are you're simply being wilfully naive here.

I think through the balance of this month, Toronto will win what it can while issues are worked out. I think it's safe to write this month off as unfortunate, and start fresh next month. Why? Well...

Bautista, when healthy, is an MVP front-runner. He was hurt before the WBC and missed a lot of games. Through the season to date, he's been hurt and missed a lot of games. Theory says: for every game missed it takes at least two games to regain timing.

Encarnacion was hurt (hand) during the WBC and missed a lot of games. He could still be one or two weeks away from regaining his timing. He could also be an MVP front-runner.

Lawrie was hurt at the beginning of the WBC and missed a lot of Games. Injuries to Reyes and Bautista necessitated a too early recall for him. He's still two to three weeks away from regaining his timing.

This is just a start, there's a whole lot more nobody wants to here about.

Sam, you're hilarious. I have enjoyed how you slip in the "I know, because I played a high level" into your posts, and now you get into a debate and you play that card again.

I played at a fairly high level, played with and against players drafted and who played in the MLB. I welcome your insight to the Box, but don't belittle others because you played at "high level".

Also, A) The wheel play was NOT on, and B) Your definition of the Wheel Play is wrong.

The wheel play isn't a judgement play, it's a pre-determined play to try to get the lead runner, but also giving you the option to get the easy out at first. The 3B continues to charge HARD, along with the 1B and the P. The 2B covers first, and the SS covers 3B. Having the 3B make that decision mid-play is ridiculous and would never happen, at any level.

I'm not too sure if Cal Ripken has enough baseball experience for you Sam, perhaps you're Lou Gehrig and can also talk down to Ripken. Anyways, for your learning experience.

http://www.ripkenbaseball.com/cc/notebook/?article_id=811

JB21,

You're certainly right. The play I described was not the wheel play and I've made a mistake describing it as such. I do believe the play I described is in fact what happened (and called "safe" bunt defense), and my questions to you were pointed towards what had happened, but it was certainly not the wheel play and I do apologize.

I also apologize for my language and my suggestion that you know little of baseball. I'm sure you do, but my language was clearly not in the spirit of the site, which I take to value frank and knowledgable baseball discussion, without devolving into name calling or petty arguments.

Again, I do apologize and I enjoy and your contributions and insight as well to the site.

Appreciate it my man, and likewise to your last sentence.

Very classy gents. Not enough of that on the Internet in general.

Agreed