With the lefty going, this is a good opportunity to rest Lind.  DeRosa, Kawasaki, Izturis, Encarnacion is not a great defensive infield, but it is probably better than the alternative. 

I'd heard the lyric in the pop tune as "it started with a kiss, now we're up to that".  Coy euphemism instead of an awkward baseball analogy.  I guess I'll take the awkward baseball analogy, if I must choose.  It sure isn't "excuse me while I kiss this guy" among the collection of misheard lyrics...

Well played Mike. My attempts at humor resemble Emilio Bonifacio playing second base.

With the lefty going, this is a good opportunity to rest Lind.  DeRosa, Kawasaki, Izturis, Encarnacion is not a great defensive infield, but it is probably better than the alternative.

This again is a tough decision, the game of baseball is not cut and dried . I'd probably sit Lind , but he is coming off a 3/4 outing against a lefty from just a few days ago and he is the second hottest hitter in the A.L. over the last 30 days as measured by WRC +. I can see where they would consider playing him.

As for Encarncion, he is the fourth best hitter in the A.L.over that same period. I'm sure they know perfectly well he's a poor third baseman, but there is a legitimate argument to keep his bat in the lineup. In fact last night he hit another dinger and just missed another. I can tell you one thing for sure, they'll be happy to see the N.L. home games disappear in the rear view mirror so they can stop all these machinations ( and to have a healthy Lawrie back as well).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=90&type=8&season=2013&month=3&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d  


 

Whoops, wrong filter, here's the entire A.L. Edgar is actually # 12 overall in the past 30 days ( Jose # 15 ).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=80&type=8&season=2013&month=3&

The point remains though, how do you balance keeping guys who are hitting well in the lineup verses putting out a reasonable defensive group? This is why management gets paid the big bucks though....

I'm sure the Jays are very glad this is it for games at NL parks until September when they play 3 in Arizona.  At that point they should have lots of guys on the bench and in the pen so pitchers will hit rarely and hopefully Lawrie will be healthy.

Whoops, wrong filter, here's the entire A.L. Edgar is actually # 12 overall in the past 30 days

Edgar, Edwin...different build, same offence/defence combination. 

While I am happily eating crow about Lind so far, after years of wishing he'd go away, we do know two things about him very well. First, he will struggle to hit lefties (recent game notwithstanding). Two, he will struggle to stay healthy. This team is done like dinner as far as contending this year, so there's no point in trying to squeeze out extra games from guys. Lind is not chasing Cal RIpken's streak, he's not adding anything defensively, he needs at least an occasional day off. Give him one now.  And he can always PH later in the game.

I think I have said it here before but I would trade Lind.  The team needs to get more athletic and trading Lind lets you move EE or Bautista into the DH and/or 1B roles and put someone more athletic in the lineup.  It also creates more flexibility with the 2014 roster.

"I think I have said it here before but I would trade Lind.  The team needs to get more athletic and trading Lind lets you move EE or Bautista into the DH and/or 1B roles and put someone more athletic in the lineup.  It also creates more flexibility with the 2014 roster."

Gerry, the crying need for "more athletic" is neither of these moves. EE is the regular 1B, and does fine. Where we cryingly need "more athletic" is in LF, so Melky can DH.

I think a big question is what is the optimal setup for 2014 and beyond while not totally junking 2013 (big comebacks can occur).  Ideally one of Lind/Cabrera would be traded then put Gose or Sierra in LF thus jumping the defense and in the long run helping the offense.  But right now it probably wouldn't help the Jays win.

Cabrera seemed an odd choice at the time, but has played well after a horrid April.  He now is up to 284/328/375 which is better than his pre-2011 numbers (pre-PED).  Up to May 4th he was hitting 236/280/276 - very horrid and the Jays were 10-21.  Then May 5th the Jays broke a 4 game losing streak with a 10-2 win helped by 3 hits from Cabrera.  From May 5th to today he has hit 339/381/486 while the team went 14-13.

FYI: Cabrera has played in every single game so far.  Given how he is playing right now they might as well keep it up.

As for Lind...  same time frames: Pre-May 5th 226/391/302 - great at getting on but no power...kind of a slower poorer fielding version of Kawasaki but with even more walks.  Since: 373/411/651 = wow.  His walks have all but vanished but his average and power went up.  Of course, the BABIP won't stay that high so one hopes he gets more selective once he slumps (as everyone does).

I don't pretend to know, but I think the jury is out on what Cabrera's real level is. His OPS+s in chronological order from 2006 (age 21):
95, 88, 68, 93, 83, 121, 157, 90.

How much of his two big seasons can be attributed to PEDs is not discernable and is pointless speculation. Even absence PEDs, last year's 157 is anomalous. I would think that AA signed Cabrera with the hope that he could return to his 121 form from his stint in KC which would have easily been worth the money.

Cabrera will turn 29 later this summer and his hamstrings won't magically heal while he plays every day. Yes he was crap in April and is raking in May, but it is not an unreasonable fear that he is either in decline (a decline exacerbated by injury, but health is a component of age-related decline) or no better than the Melky of old. On top of all this, what little he once contributed with the glove is now long gone and in no apparent danger of returning.

One argument for DHing him would be that he really is the 121 guy from KC, and that he could perform at this level by not having to play the field. That seems at least plausible.

 

 

Gameday says that the wind is blowing out at 12 mph.  Perfect for a knuckleballer.

For the record, Melky's monthly OPS+:

APR: 63
MAY: 127
JUN: 106

and remember, APR was his first month back playing baseball after going 10 months or so without baseball.

Gameday shows Dickey throwing some mid 60s pitches marked as being of the Eephus variety. Can anyone confirm this?

Howarth & Morris seem to think Dickey's been taking a bit off his pitches to find some separation in the knuckleball, since he can't dial it up as well as last year.

gameday has Dickey's knuckler as high as 78 today, and his fastball at 81.

does he usually throw harder than that?

Dickey's hit 83 mph on several fastballs.

Whereas Zito's high hard one has stung the gun at 84 mph, several times.

One runner has made it as far as second base.

Willie Mays hit 98 HRs in his 399 career games at the Polo Grounds - almost exactly one every four games (.245).

He actually did slightly better than that - 203 HRs in his 816 career games (.248) - at Candelstick Park.

If he didn't lose a year and a half to military service, he surely would have hit 700 HRs. But 800 if he'd stayed in New York? No way.

Well, that's the most unlikely run of the year.

Blanco draws the 1 out walk.

Dickey fakes the bunt, has the infield crashing the plate, and rips a double down the line.....and somehow 42 year old Blanco makes it all the way around home.

nice.

and then cabrera follows up with the 2-out rbi for the insurance run. even nicer.

You're not suggesting that Tabler is spewing nonsense?

And DeRosa with yet another clutch hits, for 2 more 2-out rbi. makes a close 2-0 game a comfortable 4-0 game.

Might be time to give AA some credit with this signning. He's been great.

Really, he should be getting more and more at bats as the starting 2B, even vs. Righties. For now at least.

The world has turned upside down.  Lind in his second game vs LHP and he has 3 hits.  Double steal by our best hitters (Encarnacion & Bautista).  DeRosa batting cleanup and driving in 2.  Dickey getting a hit and RBI and run scored. 

Might be time to give AA some credit with this signing.

Sure, but if Mark DeRosa has turned out to be the best of your off-season moves - and he has, so far - well, it makes a fellow want to start drinking again.

"Might be time to give AA some credit with this signning. He's been great."

I just had fun reading the DeRosa signing thread from January. Many of you were very upset he was given a MLB contract at the cost of the precious Sam Dyson.

Adam Lind is now hitting .500 against LHP this season.

Waiting for my hair to suddenly grow back, now that All Things Are Possible.

I just had fun reading the DeRosa signing thread from January.

That sort of thing is always a hoot! Did I say anything especially stupid?

Dickey's rolling.

knock on wood, but this is starting to look like the best 2 consecutive jays' starts all season.

"Losing Dyson and adding DeRosa is not all that interesting to me, on
both ends. Just one thing - DeRosa had 85 ABs last season, and 86 the
year before. Both years he struck out in 18 of those at bats. One year
he hit .279, and one year he hit .188 - the deities of Ball in Play can
sure be fickle."

That was me? How... dull.

The thread about DeRosa is here.  Glad to see I was fairly reasonable there - mentioning how he had a 99 OPS+ pre-injury and figured he might be healed at last and if so would have value.  That Dyson was around #22 to 34 on the depth chart ... which this year gets you a few games in the majors :P

FYI: He is starting in AA for Miami and has a 2.67 ERA in 54 IP over 11 starts (just shy of 5 IP per start).  2.5 BB/9 5.0 K/9.  If that HR rate is for real then he could be something - just keep it well below 0.5 HR/9 and he can get away with the low K rate and decent but not wow walk rate.  An interesting prospect still but not a top 10 guy as 5.0 K/9 in AA is rarely a good sign for future success even if everything is good right now.

1st time we've had a starter head into the 9th all year?

crazy that it took over 2 months to see back to back starts like this.

this was supposed to be the norm, not a rare event.

2 outstanding starts...1 win :(

It's funny to read in that DeRosa threat, Bauxites gnashing their teeth over the thought of an 8-man bullpen (and quite rightly, I may add). Of course, they did not know that we would live to see the frequent existence of a 9-man bullpen.

With the day off and two consecutive games with an inning or less for the pen, everyone will be well rested for Friday night against Texas.  With Esmil Rogers starting, it would be a perfect time for a tandem start with Cecil.  Just give me 3 good innings, as Willy DeVille once sang.

It's already been mentioned by the astute readers and scribes of Da Box, but for the purposes of delusion let's revisit it.

The last glimmer of hope the  Blue Jays and their fans have are last years A's. After being swept in Arizona (two games were losses in extra innings) the A's were 26-35 and nine games out of the division on June 10th. They did not reach .500 until July 6th, and were 13.5 (oh my) games out of first place as late as June 30th. Cespedes hadn't played for a month, Brandon Inge was batting cleanup, and they a patchwork pitching staff that included Travis Blackley and Jarrod Parker. 

The season isn't over, especially considering that by the end of the month, the team might just have their entire roster playing at once for the first time.  

I think the Blue Jays we were expecting showed up two months late and in San Francisco and are currently 1-1.

I think the Blue Jays we were expecting showed up two months late and in San Francisco and are currently 1-1.

You were expecting Edwin Encarnacion at Third base? I sure wasn't.

You were expecting Edwin Encarnacion at Third base? I sure wasn't.

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it...

You were expecting Edwin Encarnacion at Third base? I sure wasn't.

No not really expecting that in particular but certainly was expecting some injuries with Lawrie being a decent candidate for obvious reasons.  The biggest difference in our off-season this year was the pitching overhaul and this only recently seems to be playing out kind of the way one might have hoped/expected.

Well, we now have 60% of the planned rotation in place, with all 3 showing good signs lately. 
Dickey: 6+ innings in all but one start (his 2nd).  2 ER or less in 4 of his last 6 starts (3.95 ERA in that stretch as 2 games allowed 6 ER).
Johnson: solid return game, 7 IP 1 ER.  Just has one disaster start (1 1/3 IP 6 ER) otherwise would have a 3.55 ERA
Buehrle: 7 straight 6+ IP games, 4.84 ERA in those, but last 5 starts is a 3.38 ERA.

Now, we just need Morrow and Happ to come back and do well and things will be looking much better.

What's the latest update on Happ? Does he have an expected return date?

The Star has a story on Ricky Romero today.

He is going back to his old self:

Romero = lesson #1 in how not to fix a problem.  Hopefully AA and crew have learned a lot from this and don't repeat it ever again. 

Anthony Gose has been shipped out to Buffalo.  The other half of the move will be announced tomorrow.

I figured Gose would be here until June 11th with a 5th starter not being needed until then. It'd be pretty silly to call up a 9th reliever, so who is it?

Makes sense to ship him down to AAA at the moment.  He wasn't going to get much playing time as Cabrera has warmed up and Davis is the backup.  Anyways, Dickey is outhitting him so who need him?  :)

Hopefully another hitter comes up.  Ideally someone who can either cover 3B or 2B.  Negrych, of course, has the best OPS for infielders while Andy LaRoche (a top 50 prospect as recently as 2008) is doing well in AAA 282/358/463.  I'd bet on LaRoche myself as Negrych has slumped lately (522 OPS his last 10 games) and isn't naturally a third baseman and right now I think we're all tired of watching non-thirdbasemen play third.

#FreeThole

Romero = lesson #1 in how not to fix a problem.  Hopefully AA and crew have learned a lot from this and don't repeat it ever again.

I will grant that calling him up when he was almost certainly not ready was a poor decision. But given the number of pitchers that never recover from going all Steve Blass, it could well be that no solution was going to work for Romero, and that his transmogrification was doomed from the start. The inevitable excuses would then be trotted out: too many people tinkering, too many different messages, mental not physical, trying to make him into something that he's not, etc.

It could well be that Romero was receiving similar advice to Halladay's, way back when the Doc was getting retrofitted. And maybe in Halladay's case, it was following that advice and trusting those in charge that allowed him to make such an unlikely transformation. Or maybe Halladay was fixable and Romero isn't, no matter how hard anyone tries.

In the unlikely event that Romero's new approach proves successful, perhaps then the organization can be second-guessed. But until we see a fixed Romero, even if with another organization, there won't be evidence that he was even fixable in the first place.

And even if Romero gets fixed, the optimistic side can always say that he doesn't get to where he is without hitting the absolute rock bottom that the Jays' handling of Ricky led to, and that 2012 would've just repeated itself in 2013 for another 32 starts.

with Lawrie on the DL, and no sign of him returning soon, Andy LaRoche could be the chosen one.

Anyone think Romero's comments are somewhat typical of comments from several Jays--Lawrie and Arencibia namely.  My problems are not my fault, other people are to blame.  I'm amazing.

Thank god Gose was sent back. This kid needs fulltime at bats in AAA this season.

AAA Top Hitters:

1B L.Jimenez (31): 1.004ops season, .906ops May, .840ops last10, 1.258ops June
2B J.Negrych (28): .923ops season, .795ops May, .522ops last10, .765ops June
1B M.Gomez (28): .913ops season, .796ops May, 1.174ops last10, 1.176ops June
C J.Thole (26): .893ops season, .789ops May, .845ops last10, .978ops June
3B A.Laroche (29): .821ops season, .908ops May, .603ops last10, .639ops June


If we want to risk playing EE at 3B, we might be able to call up one of the hot hitting 1B/DH sluggers Jiminez or Gomez.

Sam, my thoughts exactly.  The coaches haven't covered themselves in glory this year, but their pupils may not be very teachable, either.

Romero has a very different history than the other two.  Until the last 2 years, he was considered very teachable, dedicated and all those other good things.  It's obvious that he is understandably very frustrated; his comments seem out of character to me, and I would attribute the tone mostly to the frustration.

Snider should be added to that list, although he struggled enough to forbear from claiming he was amazing.

Speaking of our coaches, Fangraphs has an interview with Mottola. My money quote:

"He’s (Lawrie) got a lot going on in his pre-load that we’d like to settle down, but that’s something that can take years."

Not exactly music to my ears.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-chad-mottola-blue-jays-hitting-coach/

The Lawrie issue is not new.  I noted it last year to much disturbance here.  He's got a real pre-swing hitch in his hands.  I don't see him catching up to fastballs.  I think what he does is he guesses on pitches and then gears his hands up for those pitches.  When he's down in the count and not sure what's coming he can't get his hands going early and he fouls things off or puts poor swings on the ball.  His hands are simply not in a good hitting position when the ball is pitched. 

Well the point he was getting at is that he's been doing this all his life as a baseball player. You can't just settle him down without wrecking his hitting approach/timing. They have to settle him to that with smaller changes over time. As Romero just showed, you can't remake a guy's mechanics from scratch.

Lawrie didn't have quite as much going on pre-load in 2011. Cumulative Red Bull effects?

wouldn't be a surprised if it's a case where the harder he presses at the plate, the more exaggerated that twitchiness becomes.

but it doesn't take an overhaul of his swing to make a change. His swing is a good one, but the load up might need tweaking.....and as we saw with Bautista and Encarnacion, that kind of tweak can happen pretty dang quickly.

"....with Lawrie on the DL, and no sign of him returning soon, Andy LaRoche could be the chosen one..."

Good news: a report by Shi Davidi today says LaRoche is indeed likely to be the one who is promoted to replace Gose.

Good news: a report by Shi Davidi today says LaRoche is indeed likely to be the one who is promoted to replace Gose.

I view this as bad news. Not calling up Thole to share time with Arencibia, which would be a clear upgrade to the team, is pure and simple stupid.

Andy LaRoche has not hit major legue pitching well enough to be considered anything but a AAAA player.

Don't see the need for a 3rd catcher so till Blanco is gone no Thole. Not that I want Blanco instead of Thole or anything.

Don't see the need for a 3rd catcher so till Blanco is gone no Thole. Not that I want Blanco instead of Thole or anything.

They don't NEED another infielder either. They have four mediocre players for three positions, why add a fifth.

With or without Blanco, Thole improves the team more than LaRoche. And what they NEED is an improved team.

Robert, my guess is that the theory is that LaRoche plays a better 3B than any of the other infielders on the team.

I don't know if I buy that, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that that's the reason he's coming up.

My bet exactly - LaRoche can play 3B, was once a top prospect but the Dodgers were not doing well with prospects when he came through their system, then he went to Pittsburgh (where prospects go to die), kicked around a bit the last two years as everyone figured 'washed up'.  His ML 72 OPS+ suggests that is a correct view, but his previous top 100 prospect 4 years in a row (top 20 two years in a row) suggests there was once potential there.  Now 29 years old, he is in his prime and knows this might be his last chance after having no ML PA last year.  There are dumber things the Jays could do while Lawrie is on the DL (play Bonifacio and Izturis and Kawasaki at the same time for example).

Northrey,

That is an extremely charitable view of LaRoche, it qualifies you to be his press agent. Compared to what LaRoche has accomplished in baseball, Izturis is Jose Bautista and Travis Snider is Adam Jones.

I simply can't see how LaRoche is any better than the three players you maligned, and could be much worse.

Well, Izturis is hitting 216/250/307 and last 10 his OPS has been 505, so I don't see any improvement.  His defense at third has been horrible this year (-87.5 UZR/150 over 54 innings), as has his defense at SS (-53.7 over 113 innings, -48.5 over 191 last year), and even at 2B has been a big negative (-16.8 over 201 innings).  I mean, there has been nothing positive about him this year - heck, he is even 0 for 2 in stolen bases.

Kawasaki has been able to take walks, but his offense has nothing else other than stolen bases.  I love watching him play, but 214/331/277 just isn't going to cut it as we all expect that OBP to drop anytime now as pitchers just won't throw him pitches outside the strike zone if at all possible.  His defense has been OK (-0.3 UZR/150) but not a 'wow'.  His 7-1 SB-CS is very nice and all those things combined mean he could be a good bench guy but not an everyday player.

Bonifacio, like Izturis, has yet to figure out which end of the bat to use.  216/244/338.  His speed, his #1 asset, has been mediocre with 6-2 SB-CS so far (given his playing time one would've thought 15 SB by now at least).  For fielding he has a negative UZR at all but RF (26 innings) and SS (4 innings) and many have felt like averting their eyes when the ball is hit to him.  Some said he was getting hot, but his last 10 he has hit 235/235/382 for a 618 OPS.  If that is hot I'd hate to see cold.

So two of those 3 have hit in the 500's for OPS, while the third is viewed as doing great for him by barely being in the 600's.  Meanwhile LaRoche was at 654 his last time up, 642 lifetime.  Yeah, nothing special - in fact terrible.  But if he can play a 1/2 decent third defensively then he is one up on Izturis and Bonifacio.  Now, in his last year in the majors (2011) he was negative at 3B/2B/1B and positive at SS.  Lifetime he is just shy of 0 at 3B (ie: much like Kawasaki at SS).  Right now league average defense is a big plus in the infield (how sad).

None of those guys is a good option at third.  But of the poor options right now I'd say give LaRoche a shot and see if he can catch fire as Boni and Izturis have not shown anything to justify any faith this year.  In a week or two when Lawrie is back LaRoche can go back down if he hasn't shown why he was a top prospect not that long ago.  If he can catch fire, then the Jays will probably still send him down but might debate it a bit.

I would like to raise the idea that Lawrie may not be back in a week or two. He has a high ankle sprain. The swelling has been slow to go down and even when it does, it will take some time before he can put weight on it and then it will take longer for the ankle to become strong. And at that point, we may be talking minor league rehab. I have no inside information, but Lawrie could easily be gone from four to six weeks and he wasn't exactly tearing it up before he got hurt. The "who is going to play third?" question, may be a fairly important question. Either Laroche or de Rosa may fill in (I prefer de Rosa) but with Reyes already gone for an extended time, someone to "fill in" may not be good enough.

It is almost a given that Lawrie won't be back until July.

I'll make a wager that LaRoche sees minimal playing time; i.e. he's not coming here to be the regular 3B or anything close to that. That will be DeRosa, who is about equal to LaRoche defensively and way ahead offensively. It's difficult to see him viewed as anything more than the last man off the bench.

It's very convenient of Northrey to talk only about this year when assessing Bonifacio and Izturis. If anyone is going to hit well going forward, it is those two based on their better track record to LaRoche.

I ask again in a different fashion, what is this faith in LaRoche based on?

It isn't so much faith in LaRoche as a lack of it in the other options and figuring 'what the heck, lets see if this old top prospect can bring his AAA game to the majors'. 

Izturis is 32, coming off a poor season (81 OPS+) and has shown poor defense and poor offense all year without stealing bases.  Basically, everything that can go wrong in his game has gone wrong.  There is nothing positive about his performance to date.  In the offseason it wasn't unreasonable to think he could rebound from his 81 OPS+ to a 90 something as 2 of the 3 years previous he was over 100, but unless he hits near 100 his defense is not good enough to keep him in the lineup and with no indicators that he is picking up his game one has to wonder if the Jays screwed up royally on his deal ($10 mil over 3 years).  The Batters Box thread on his signing is here.  Yeah, I said it was 'solid' at the time but I didn't see him as an everyday guy but a backup 'John McDonald' role.  Then the big trade happened.  It is funny to see how we all expected things to go at that point and how things changed 5 days later.

Bonifacio I was high on in the preseason largely because the Jays and various others seemed to be.  High speed, versatility and coming off an injury that might have screwed him up last year.  Instead his 107 OPS+ at age 26 appears to be the oddity and the 68 OPS+ he showed the rest of his career closer to the reality.  If he was showing that speed that got him 70 SB in the 2 years before this then I'd be able to endure his poor defense, but poor defense, horrible offense, and 6-2 SB-CS just doesn't cut it. 

There is every reason in the world to believe Izturis and Bonifacio won't recover to be more than mediocre backup infielders.  Thus I say why not take a chance on someone else?  This year needs a few big surprises and not the negative types we've been getting.  Be it a AAAA'er like LaRoche or Negrych, or some kid coming up and doing well (don't see any in the infield) then that's what the Jays need to try.  As I said, if LaRoche's defense is poor then don't bother (I have no real idea where it is at) but if he can be league average for defense and hit at least for a 600 OPS then he is an improvement over Izturis/Bonifacio.  And boy is that a sad, sad statement.

Oh, FYI, my name is not Northrey - it is North like the direction with an ey at the end.

You're not fooling anyone Northrey.

I think I might have wanted to see DeRosa get more of a look at 3B. His arm and glove seem fine to me, and his lack of range shouldn't hurt him too much at 3B.

The issue is whether DeRosa is up to playing every day at this point in his career.  I think that he is better off used in a platoon role, and LaRoche will probably play better than Izturis or Bonifacio at third base as the other half of the platoon until Lawrie (thankfully) is able to return.  On the other hand, Thole for Blanco ought to have happened at the beginning of the year, and at this point, it qualifies as a complete headscratcher.