I LOVE IT!!! Lawrie hasn't played a full season for a while. Graveman is meh but I will miss Franklin.

Great trade!

It's a win now trade, three prospects plus Lawrie for a premium player. If getting the best player wins the deal, then the Jays won it. Donaldson has only two years of major league time but he is super two eligible. The Jays can afford to pay him while Oakland couldn't.

Graveman strikes me as a guy who will do well in Oakland. Nolin seems like a just a guy. Baretto looks very good but still a long way away.

Seems very good for the Jays at first blush.

Donaldson was 6th in WAR last year and 3rd two years ago. Lots of that is wrapped up in his defense... but still, in terms of WAR over the past two years he is only behind Mike Trout.

Tremendous deal.

hurts to lose barreto but man oh man donaldson has been an absolute monster the past couple of years and is completely controllable, too.

huge, huge deal.

great move.

Hate to see Barreto go. That's a huge price to pay. Sportsnet only flashed Lawrie and Graveman on their graphic. Sportsnet is so incompetent.

Consensus on this one. Good move, big price. totally worth it.

The Black Friday deal

last 2yrs all MLB:

WAR

1. Trout 18.3
2. McCutcheon 15.0
3. Donaldson 14.1
4. Gomez 13.4
5. Cabrera 13.0

Def (fangraphs)

9. Donaldson 28.8

wRC+

17. Donaldson 138



donaldson a very worth top-10 finisher in mvp voting in each of the last two years.

and he's under control for four years.

this is a crazy good add. especially considering that the only mlb piece we gave up is the guy he's upgrading on at 3b, and only one of the three prospects is arguably top 5 (or even top ten really) in the system. we just managed to add an mvp calibre player without blowing any holes in our team or system. just fantastic.

that being said, don't be surprised if fringy arms like nolin and graveman excel in that pitcher's paradise in oakland.

Wow, wow, just wow!

Couldn't believe when I just heard the bit about Lawrie being moved to the A's. Figured it would be Donaldson would be coming back, but then thought what additional pieces would be going over. I actually had high hopes for Graveman and of course the high cost of Barretto. But at least the cost wasn't one of the top 3.

Overall, a probably a fair trade for both sides. Win now vs win later.

I don't mind trading Lawrie although they don't really know what they are trading. I don't like trading Nolin or Graveman. I hate trading Barreto. They got a terrific player but they paid a ransom. I don't like this trade at all.

While he's a Super Two player, it's still funny that Donaldson is still under team control one year MORE than lawrie is.

Nolin and Graveman are non-impact players for a team that has much better pitching prospects than them.  You "dont like" trading two back-end starters? You need a reality check, seriously.  Both rank well behind: Stroman, Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez, and Osuna.  Then you factor in Hoffman who has the ability to move very quickly once rehabbed and who has much higher upside as well.  Barreto is the big risk here, but lets face it, we're built to compete now and hes an 18 year old who will have zero impact while guys like Bautista, Encarnacion, and Martin are the foundation of this team.

I don't like it either but I reserve the right to change my mind if the Jays win the World Series in the next year or two.

Impressive and exciting addition.

Another significant upgrade at a position where we had a serviceable option (on paper more than on field) in Lawrie.

Fangraphs had Donaldson ranked as the 17th most valuable player in baseball this July in terms of trade value (based on contractual status).

Now (still) to find a 2nd baseman and corner outfielder. I'll settle for league average at our black hole positions given the other upgrades we've now made.

Woah! AA Just keeps making this team's talent pool better and better! I like Barrette but I mean come on Josh Donalson is a MVP caliber player! The teams core for the next 2-4 years is really solid!

Playing alternate reality here its like trading Bautista for Michael Saunders, two end of rotation/bullpen guys and an 18 year old SS. I personally would jump off a bridge if I seen that trade.

Excellent use of prospects by AA, though we still need all the things we needed before the trade. Very right handed middle of the order now. The low minors shortstop logjam has cleared up somewhat. Can't honestly say I'll miss Lawrie, will miss Barretto - has a chance to be special.

barreto might hurt in the long run, but if the jays go out july 2 and go nuts (like the yanks and bosox last year), then there might be some system-gaming prospect restocking that could help down the road.

In case you don't trust wRC+ to adjust for his home park correctly, just look at his away stats for reassurance:

2014: .276/.361/.513/.874
2013: .309/.400/.477/.877

Once again, a trade out of nowhere.  No question AA still has 'ninja' skills after the Gose for Travis deal and now this.

Franklin Barreto is entering his age 19 season, has 2 years of a mid-800's OPS in short season play so he is a big risk to trade.  Given the high number of errors he has (54 in 125 games at SS) odds are he is moving elsewhere on the diamond soon.  Still not a guy you like to trade but in rookie ball flameouts are common so not a massive risk.

Sean Nolin is a good prospect but not a 'wow' one anymore. Very easy to add to a trade I'd figure as he is entering his age 25 season, his final option year, and didn't have a slot on the Jays.

Kendall Graveman I hate to see go as he was fun to cheer on.  Realistically though he was a bonus part and losing him isn't a big loss as in the spring anyone could've taken him from the Jays for next to nothing I suspect.

Brett Lawrie is the heartache one.  A Canadian who plays super hard and can play at 2B or 3B.  Still, compared to Josh Donaldson well, there isn't much of a battle.  Donaldson is older but has a year more of team control (very valuable) and like Lawrie has high defensive value but also has killer offensive value (125 lifetime OPS+, peaking at 145 in 2013).  He is in his prime years (entering his age 29 season) and will not be a free agent until after his age 32 season - just in time for his decline years.

Yeah, this makes a lot of sense although, like Martin, it is odd as it is upgrading a position from OK to 'wow'.  Much harder to do that than to upgrade, say, 2B from 'ugh' to 'OK'.  Curious what is coming next.

I have to dissent from the consensus on this one.  I think that the A's will do better than the Jays in 2015 and a lot better in a few years.  I will happily acknowledge that this is almost exclusively subjective- I ran a third baseman Play Index on Donaldson using simply his age 27 and 28 performance, and came out with great third basemen who held their value well (Brooks, Rolen, Ventura, Boyer, Bando...). The only one who flopped was Kelly Gruber  It is hard because every one of them came up earlier and starred by age 25.  So, I played with it and looked at first 3 year performance at any position beginning at age 25.  There were many more who did have a pretty steady downward progress in their late 20s/early 30s- Mitchell Page, Kevin Seitzer, Phil Bradley, Del Pratt, John Valentin.

Donaldson's glove is likely to maintain and I am not worried about him falling to pieces.  I just think he's more likely to be a good hitter than a great one over the next 3 years.  I think that he's going to be a 4-5 WAR player over the next few years, and I think that Lawrie will be pretty close to that, and the other players will more than make up the difference.  As it happens, I subjectively like Graveman and Nolin much more than any objective analysis would have it.  And I think Barreto is going to be a beast of a hitter in 3-5 years. 

All that said, I understand the deal.

I think that he's going to be a 4-5 WAR player over the next few years, and I think that Lawrie will be pretty close to that

Talk about a self-absorbed "analysis".  Lawrie can't stay on the field long enough to provide anywhere near that value, and even if he's healthy you're looking at a guy with major problems in his swing.  Yeah, its possible on some level, but so is Dickie pitching like he did as a Cy Young winner and I doubt you or anyone else expects that to happen.

They got a terrific player but they paid a ransom. I don't like this trade at all.

What I find perplexing about this comment is the inference that getting a 'terrific player' ought not necessarily cost 'a ransom'. You normally have to give up an awful lot to get a terrific player, unless you're trading Milt Pappas. I don't think the Jays gave up too much. Graveman and Nolin would have had a hard time making the team. Baretto may be great but, Eddie Zosky. And Lawrie didn't seem to have enough bat to play third, and enough health to play regularly.

Also with Lawrie joining Rasmus and Gose (and JPA the year prior)on the gone list, the purge of headcases may be close to complete.

I am surprised that AA traded Barreto but maybe values Lugo and Urena more than Barreto. OR maybe he sees Barreto as an OF player where he loses some long term value as bats at the OF position are easier to find over SS'.

If Lawrie can learn to use the entire field, he becomes a more dangerous hitter. Those 2Bs and 3Bs he'll get in the gaps would be fun to watch!

Like I said, love the trade! Trading 2 arms that won't be starters for you is a great use of resources.

I DON'T THINK AA is done quite yet. Lester maybe? I would front load a Lester contract. 30, 30, 20, 20, and 10 over 5?

Barry Davis @SNBarryDavis
AA "we've become a more desirable place for FA pitchers since the Martin deal." #BlueJays

I suppose anything is possible, but Lawrie would have to take a GIANT leap forward to a 4-5 WAR player.

Donaldson takes way more walks, has much more power (especially considering home parks) and is at least as good defensively. Considering the injuries are likely to sap some of Lawrie's athleticism... I can't see how you can consider the two players even close.

I doubt it has anything to do with who AA values more, its that the A's weren't going to make the trade without Barreto.

I am surprised that AA traded Barreto but maybe values Lugo and Urena more than Barreto. OR maybe he sees Barreto as an OF player where he loses some long term value as bats at the OF position are easier to find over SS'.

It had nothing to do with what AA "wanted".  You don't get Donaldson if you're offering Urena or Lugo, period.  You have to give something to get something.  I'm sure they didn't want to trade Barreto.

As someone already said, It's a win now deal - having overpaid for Martin, I understand this deal and have to give it a thumbs up - it's also a good deal for Oakland, Nolin and Graveman should do well in that big ballpark and so should Lawrie, freed of having to wear the "Canadian Saviour" hype in Toronto - Baretto may hurt in a few years but the fact that he's unlikely to stay @ SS lowers the pain and the jays FO have done well in acquiring quality amateur talent. What I especially like about this deal from Toronto's perspective is that Donaldson is still in his prime, not a thirtysomething acquisition.

but it's hardly even a "win now" deal.

Donaldson is still under control for years, and longer than Lawrie is.

Nolin and graveman were stuck behind 5+ younger and better starting pitching talents in stroman, hutch, norris, sanchez, hoffman, Osuna, etc.

Barreto stings, but as good a prospect he is, this isn't a top-20 prospect we're talking about here, it's not even a top-50 prospect.

Love the deal - it could look terrible in retrospect (like any baseball trade, injuries or sudden performance changes happen), but it looks very good right now. The Jays now have the best 3B and best RF in the league, and one of the top C, also possibly the best DH (where ever EE plays) . Holes in the lineup elsewhere be damned, you can win with a stars and scrubs approach. And the scrubs can still be upgraded, not many stars out there.

I've said all off-season that Melky would not (could not?) be re-signed. I hereby retract that position and announce 8 of our nine starting lineup.

Out batting lineup will be: Reyes, Melky, Bautista, Donaldson, EE, ?(platoon perhaps),Martin, Devon and Pompey. Five great(ish) bats at the top and two flat ouy up and coming burners at the bottom.

One other point I would like to mention - Maybe because I'm not young but I was never a fan of the Snider/Lawrie/Arencibia hijinks - reminded me of the Derek Bell antics - Also, kudos to AA, I didn't think that he would have the chutzpah to trade Lawrie after all the hype and marketing the jays did with Lawrie.

Would have liked the deal a lot more if Donaldson was 26 and not 29. Baretto is going to be great and maybe a lot sooner than people think.

Love the deal, Donaldson is a stud. I just read that he says he loves Bautista and he modelled his swing after him, which, if you have ever watched Donaldson hit, is a thing of beauty.

Hate to give up Barreto, the kid certainly has the hit tool, but if I'm an A's fan I'm feeling like Beane could've gotten more.

I'm normally very cautious about trading prospects for established players, but I really like this trade. Donaldson is a star, not just a good player. Keep in mind his stats have been hurt by playing in a very good pitchers' park. His career OPS away from Oakland is about 60 points higher than at home. That park really hurts your BA due to the huge foul territory. I expect he's going to put up some very strong numbers in Toronto. Then factor in that he's a very strong defensive player, and even a good percentage base stealer. Graveman and Nolin strike me as decent but not great prospects, Lawrie has a serious problem with staying healthy, and Barreto, while having a big upside, has never played a single game of full season baseball.

I expect Lawrie's injury problems are going to continue. I don't have stats on it, but I have been playing fantasy sports for many decades, and I know how important it is to stay away from injury prone players, because they often continue to get hurt on a regular basis. I've seen it time and time again, that some players' bodies just can't stand up to the rigors of professional sports well enough to avoid missing considerable time due to injury year after year. I'm tired of the Jays having to fill in for a great number of injured players every year, so dealing a guy like Lawrie is fine with me. A couple of current star players on the Rockies are looking like they fit in that injury-prone category, too, and I can't help but notice the Rockies are offering them in trade as well - Tulowitzki and C.Gonzalez.

Also, when he's been in the lineup, Lawrie hasn't come close to what he did in his short call up in 2011, and his numbers have not been improving the last 3 years. His OPS the last 3 years - .729, .712, .722. When a player levels out like that for 3 years, I'm starting to think there is a reasonable chance that this is about as good as he's going to get.

One thing about Donaldson - he does have pretty big lefty/righty splits. I'd like to see them get a lefty bat to break up the Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson trio vs righties. A small quibble.

Great trade.

I'm one who both loves prospects and believes the best use of them is as trade bait. IMO, prospects are always overrated. Even elite prospects bust quite often. Just good prospects actually bust more often than they succeed. As much as I love Barreto, odds are better that he busts than that he becomes a stud.

Trading a couple of pieces with some star potential for legit star actuality is exactly the right thing to do, IMO.

I want to think about this one some more, but my first impression is that it's a good trade for both teams.

Toronto upgrades at third base, improves its lineup, and perhaps reduces its injury risk. The team now has an outstanding core in Bautista, EE, Martin and Donaldson; a good overall SS (strong offense, meh defense) in Reyes; and a promising centerfielder in Pompey. The trade might also help in terms of improving the team's intangibles/professionalism - I don't know. Further moves may be pending with respect to 2B, 1B/DH and LF. I would expect at least one more move for a positional upgrade.

Oakland buys low on Lawrie, who could still prove to be a very good player. Even if he never reaches the potential most of us saw in him two or three years ago, he could still be a productive and cheap two-way third baseman. That has value. Graveman and Nolin are the type of control pitchers who could excel in Oakland. Barreto is a good prospect (though perhaps not a ML SS) who helps the low-budget A's keep the talent flowing.

One concern: AA has shown a propensity to trade for veterans coming off career or very good years (Dickey, JJ, Reyes, Buehrle, Donaldson). It doesn't always work out quite as planned. And, as Rios commented (as a visiting player) after the Miami trade, sometimes it takes a year for new teammates to jell. The Jays can't afford to have that happen again in 2015.

oh yah, I saw on Rotoworld a comment that the return package seemed a bit underwhelming for Donaldson...

...and on the A's site there is a lot of anguish and downright anger about the deal on their message boards

@JeffPassan

Toronto got Russell Martin. It got Josh Donaldson. And it's still in strong on Jon Lester.

Amazing, amazing, amazing trade.

Donaldson is a stud. A legit 6-7 WAR superstar at 3B and he is under team control through 2018. The only prospect the Jays gave up was Barreto, who may turn out to be very good someday, but Donaldson is already a star. This is a move the Jays had to make, as Lawrie at his absolute best will likely never be as good as Donaldson, and Nolin/Graveman are back-end starters at best.

Excellent move. Alex has been on fire so far.

One thing that's been clear about Anthopoulos since the beginning: he's not afraid of the Big Move(TM). This one is definitely high up on that list.

I think the most shocking thing to me is how the Blue Jays got a player of Donaldson's caliber (and control) without surrendering any of their young jewels (Sanchez, Stroman, Pompey, Norris). Barreto looks very promising but I can't possibly see him being a contributor until 2017 at the absolute earliest. I also think Nolin will be a better big league pitcher than a lot of people think but hey, sometimes you just don't wanna wait anymore. Thumbs up.

I will miss Brett Lawrie a lot though. The 2011 debut sent our expectations into an unreasonable orbit, but he can still be a fantastic player if his body will allow it. When he was in the lineup, you just knew you were going to see some kind of spectacular play around that part of the diamond.

My first (drunken) thought was "that's way too fucking much". My second (still drunken) thought was that it's a very fair deal. My current thought is "we just got another all-star who hits AND plays defence!". In adding up "value", it seems like a very even trade.

Lawrie's absolute best case upside is Donaldson. Nolin and Graveman are likely to be number 4/5 starters in a good rotation, or possibly even just relievers (and I say that despite being a huge fan of both of them, particularly Graveman).

Barreto has a big bat and the ability to play a relatively difficult defensive position, but is far enough away that he doesn't fit our "window".  Is he Jeff Kent 2.0? Maybe, but even if he is, I don't care. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush, it's as simple as that. We have a legit chance to be champs for the next two years, which is more than I've been able to say in a long time.

From the Jay's perspective, they get an all-star who helps them win right now, and I'm very happy about that fact.

Between Navarro and Happ, we should be able to fill 1-2 parts of the 2b/LF/relief needs we have. Toss in one more reasonable FA signings (Lowrie, A. Cabrera, M. Cabrera, etc.), and you almost have a full lineup.

I like Pillar/Pompey scrapping for playing time, as I think Pillar is going to hit a lot better than most expect.  We should even have enough budget left over to add at the deadline.

I am shocked and awed at what AA has done, and am much more enthusiastic than I was for the Marlin's trade (although I admittedly was very high on Dickey). I can't wait for the season to start.

Oh, and one final thing: can someone explain to me why the f^&# Chad Jenkins gets no love? He seems like a valuable commodity that is not respected in the least. He is the Rodney Dangerfield of MLB players.

If you put a good defense behind him (assuming you get another good defensive 2b, or you're playing Goins) he should be able to put up decent stats. Worst case scenario is he turns out to be a rich-man's Todd Redmond, and his upside is Derek Lowe. Let the man pitch until he proves he can't do it.

Out of nowhere.

Nobody realized that Martin being the star Canadian player made Lawrie expendable.

The Jays needed a bat to replace Lind and Josh will do just fine.

Still need a closer. 

This trade was clearly Barretto-optimal.

The key to this deal is who is Brett Lawrie really? We all saw his hitting ability in 2011 when he burst onto the scene but since then he hasn't found a good swing. He has been inconsistent and gone through slumps and periods when he hit well. Lawrie has been a league average hitter over the last three years. If thats what he is then this deal is a win for the Jays. If Lawrie can get back his 2011 form then Oakland wins.

One other observation about this deal, and it's about money.  Donaldson is going to make a fortune in arbitration.  Lawrie will not.  One of the downsides of acquiring a player who has been a star at age 27-28 in his two pre-arb Super Two years is that you will be paying for what he did, not what he is likely to do.  One of the other late-arriving stars was Ryan Howard. Obviously, I like Donaldson a lot more than I did Howard after his first two years, but the general point remains.  In this respect, the deal reminds me of the Dickey deal, which I also gave the thumbs down to.

Barreto was a ways away - might be something but also might not. Not to downplay what the Jays have lost in this deal - I thought all of the players involved had potential - but I look at it like the A's got a big handful of dice to roll, increasing their chances that one or two might work out. Hard to know if it's Barreto that hurts or the breakout year Lawrie might have in 2015, etc.

There are a few similarities between Barreto and Travis, assuming that Barreto moves from SS. Combining the trades looks like: Barreto for Travis plus Lawrie for Donaldson at the expense of Gose/Graveman/Nolin.

Looking at it this way, in my opinion, takes some of the pain out of losing prospects. I'm OK getting a near-MLB 2B in Travis over the potentially higher ceiling higher risk and further away Barreto. I would actually consider that an upgrade. The rest can be evaluated based on control, dollars, and MLB performance.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=travis000dev
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=barret004fra

Nice work AA. All we need now is Melky, Lester and a closer and we're done. 

No need to worry about losing prospects. The Jays don't develop prospects into good MLB players anyway. Maybe the As will. But it doesn't happen here. So it's essentially nothing lost at all. Most prospects never turn into anything useful for any organization.

I think Jose Reyes defense just got a lot better.

Regarding Donaldson's salary: MLBTR in a piece entitled "Athletics Will Not Trade Donaldson" reported $4.5M in 2015.

Addict, I couldn't agree more on Jenkins who I think has real value as a swingman on the jays. My thoughts on the trade: Franklin was the one guy in the system I didn't want to trade- however the combination of cost and control on Donaldson makes this a win.

I don't understand that point about Donaldson making more in arbitration. Obviously he'll make more, but his salary under arby will still be a bargain compared to how he performs on the field. Even Ryan Howard, who made $10m in arby, outperformed his salary that year.

I'm warming up to it a bit. You all are doing a pretty good job of selling the trade :) I still think Baretto will be the one we miss the most in a few years.

One of the reasons I gave a thumbs up to this trade is that for about a year now I've concluded that Lawrie would not reach his potential in Toronto - the Jays Marketing dept. along with the local media and fans made Lawrie a star before he was actually one - I hope the team has learned it's lesson and will let Pompey prove himself on the field before the hype takes over.

Not the biggest fan. Mostly because of the age difference between Donaldson and Lawrie. Donaldson is beginning his decline phase now while getting expensive fast. Even if his offense keeps up, his defense and DL time will move in the wrong direction. Lawrie may never hit better than he does but has more good defensive years left.

As for the arms, they are likely useful but not stars. However, even 1000 cost controlled innings at the end of the rotation have a real value. Barreto is a lottery ticket. Far removed and has a good chance not amounting to much but could turn into a star.

Every piece in isolation is not that bad to lose. The combinations seems expensive once you factor in Donaldson's age. Obviously, if the Jays win it all in the next two years, it doesn't matter. But I feel the team is still a bit off that pace which makes me not liking this trade too much.

"No need to worry about losing prospects. The Jays don't develop prospects into good MLB players anyway. Maybe the As will. But it doesn't happen here. So it's essentially nothing lost at all. Most prospects never turn into anything useful for any organization."

Yeah, we should have traded Stroman when we had a chance. It's true most don't turn into anything useful. The Jays the past few years aren't the same org they were prior. To judge the current development system on what was prior makes little sense.

People who say they dislike it are too familiar with the Jays players. If another team made a similar deal we'd be flipping out.

If you take the Rays... Jeremy Helickson was a higher rated prospect than Lawrie who also busted onto the scene, and then add two low upside AA/AAA pitchers and a highly regarded prospect who' hasn't played full season ball. If they moved that for Donaldson we'd all be cursing over the great move by them.

Regarding Donaldson's salary: MLBTR in a piece entitled "Athletics Will Not Trade Donaldson" reported $4.5M in 2015.

Really?  Tim Lincecum asked for $13 million in 2010 as a Super-Two, and ended up signing for $9 million.   Lincecum had had one decent year and one great year at the time.  In 2012, David Price had this history- 2010, 128 innings, ERA of 4.42; 2011- 208 innings, ERA of 2.72; 2012- 224 innings, ERA of 3.44 (ERA+ of 108 with a great defence behind him).  He settled with the Rays for $4.35 million.  I guess that the projected arbitration award depends on the influence of sabermetrics.  You can see how MLTBR looked at the Price arbitration situation here.

In any event, I think that they are way, way off in this case.  I think that the combination of sabermetric analysis and Donaldson's MVP standing the last two years (4th and 8th) means that he is going to be seen as one of the best players in the league, and that he'll get at least $7 million per annum and likely more than that.

Just think, all those numbers in a Pitcher-friendly Park to a Hitter-friendly Park. A.A. needs to sign him to a long term contract before Donaldson gets Extremely Expensive.

People who say they dislike it are too familiar with the Jays players. If another team made a similar deal we'd be flipping out.

I couldn't agree more. And had a GM other than the vastly over-rated Beane made this deal, it would be widely and properly criticized as trading four years of an all-star for three years of an always-injured player with a bat that doesn't play at third, some pitching spare parts and a distant prospect. If Toronto fans can't appreciate this deal, there's not many I can see them liking.

AA exploits Canadian advantage -- makes a deal during American Thanksgiving while all the other GMs are in a Turkey coma.

Unfortunately for Donaldson, sabermetrics have little to do with arbitration. Counting stats are what matter. He will get paid for his offence. He'll get little for his defence.

Comebydean,beane is getting savaged on primer for this trade.

So what does fWAR via Steamer say now about the Jays in 2015?
CA: Martin: 3.9
1B: Encarnacion: 3.7
2B: Travis: 2.3
3B: Donaldson: 5.6
SS: Reyes: 3.0
LF: Pillar: 1.4
CF: Pompey: 0.2
RF: Bautista: 5.4
DH: Dirks: 1.0

Yeah, LF & DH are just placeholders.  Pick any of the other options you wish or shift Pillar to CF and Pompey to the minors.  At this point those 3 slots are pure guesses as to who will play and odds are 1 or 2 of them will be someone who isn't in the Jays system at the moment.

So the Jays just added a guy projected to have a better 2015 than Bautista.  Think about that for a minute and how big a statement that is.  Not that Lawrie was rated poorly, he was at 4.0 but that assumed 580 PA which is more than he has had in the majors in any one season so far.

This is a great trade for the Jays. The upgrade from Lawrie to Donaldson is significant, and the price to do it was 2 pitchers who I don't think can make it, and a prospect who is years away from the majors, let alone being a contributing player.

The only thing holding me back from saying this is a heist is that it was a trade with Billy Beane.

Ninja move. Good protection around EE and Jose.

However by upgrading at positions where the Jays were already at least average, there are still big holes on this team. But in keeping with this trend, I can see AA going for a lead off hitter who can get on base. This reduces the risk of Reyes going down. A free agent who makes sense here is Nori Aoki, though I'm not a big fan of this.

For the closer I hope Andrew Miller is #1 on the list. But there are quite a few other options including trades.

To people worrying about Donaldson's age: I didn't realize 28 is old now!

It's also not really true that the decline for hitters starts at 28. There may be a slight decline, but true decline doesn't start until around 30-31, and even then it's not at all a given (see: Jose Bautista, and lots of other examples) and will not likely keep him from hitting like an all-star.

A fangraphs article on the topic: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/

OK, hypobole.  Let's make a bet. I'll give you a third more than MLTBR has it- $6 million.  If Donaldson's 2015 salary is more than $6 million, I win.  If it's less than $6 million, you win.  The prize is a pumpkin from Donaldson Farms. You in?

I said that Donaldson replaces Lind's bat, but on second thought, I think we still need a left handed bat down the middle.

Donaldson - very good hitter, he'll be better in TO because of the shorter porches and - very importantly - he won't have that acre or so of extra foul territory to pop out in he had in Oakland. He says he modeled his leg kick on Bautista. Jose wil be pleased. We traded what we hoped Lawrie would become for what he would have become had the stars aligned. We've got him for four years (at least) at well below what he will be worth during that time (no matter how much we pay him). With the STAGGERING losses of Graveman and Nolin we're left with NO young pitching depth except: Stroman, Hutch, Sanchez, Norris, Osuna, Castro, Labour, Hoffman, Reid-Foley and a dozen or so other useless stiffs. In other words we didn't have room for all those guys anyway.

On Barretto - a great bat on a very small person - he'll have some pop - perhaps like Pedroia. Franklin will have to prove he can play defensively in CF, 3rd or on 2nd - to date his arm's accuracy is iffy and he's got a steep hill to climb in finding a position to play in the bigs. Having just dammed him with faint praise - he's honestly and truly got a great hit tool. He was NEVER going to be our SS of the future. Urena is CLEARLY the future SS.

So we're a lot better now right? Yes and no. But we are much closer than where we were before this trade. Compared to our production at 3rd last year, Josh's production will equal that plus pick up most of the power loss with Lind's production and some of Melky's production as well. Martin's production will not equal Navarro's production last year. We're close enough now that a break out year form Pompey, or Devon being as good as he just might be - might be enough to see us with at least last year's production.

We're a Closer away from being a serious contender. We're also an Ace starter away from being a favorite to win the division. There is a reasonable chance that that Ace starter might just be Norris or Sanchez, or some "piggyback" version of them.

Love the trade overall: consolidates the value of several pieces into one, so that you can put more "WAR" onto the field in a game. As long as Donaldson continues to play like he has been, I like the deal. Clearly, for whatever reason, Lawrie either wasn't as good as we'd hoped, or he's not playing up to his potential here, and it doesn't seem like it would get fixed here anytime soon.

My only concern is: several people have mentioned that Donaldson is a very good defensive player - same as Lawrie. This worries me that it might turn out to be the turf that causes frequent injuries to defensively-aggressive third basemen. IIRC, Rolen did just fine here. On the other hand, of the "good 3B comparables" shown by Mr. Green (I think), Gruber was the only one to collapse, and he also played on the turf.

Worst nightmare: Donaldson turns into Lawrie (always injured) due to turf, and Lawrie, away from turf, turns into Donaldson. Then we essentially gave away the other players for nothing. Chance of this happening? No idea - hopefully < 10%..

Mike, if Donaldson is awarded or signs a one year deal for over 6 million you will not only win the pumpkin, I will also publicly proclaim you know more about arbitration than I and more than the folks at MLBTR.

Agree with the comments about the lefty bat in the middle of the order. There's a surprising amount of OBP on this team given the amount of HR-power down the line-up, but Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson 2-5 in the line-up (in whichever order) begs for a lefty.

Wait - checking OPS splits from 2013-2014:
[RHP, LHP, Delta]

Encarnacion 913 865 48
Bautista 865 995 -130
Donaldson 770 1025 -255
Martin 798 652 146
Average 836 884 -48

So not as bad as it looks. Martin looks to have reverse splits and Encarnacion hits slightly better against RHP. Likely they would but Encarnacion between Bautista and Donaldson. Would be really nice if they had a righty masher behind Donaldson though. Maybe we could trade Estrada for one?

Mike, if Donaldson is awarded or signs a one year deal for over 6 million you will not only win the pumpkin, I will also publicly proclaim you know more about arbitration than I and more than the folks at MLBTR.

You might very well win, hypobole.  I think that it is possible that AA agrees to a back-loaded contract with him to buy out his arb years.  It's still possible for AA to have 2015 payroll at the same level of 2014, but it will require a deal like that. 

I like the trade. We get a very good player, who has proven himself in the Big Leagues. Sure we gave up value, but you have to. We have pitching depth and also prospect depth, so we did not trade away the farm.
Nolin and Graveman to me, look like they know how to pitch ...ie pitchers rather than throwers. And Barreto has star potential, just like Lawrie did and probably still does.

In addition we still have big league parts that can be moved and quite likely will be moved. This off season is very active for many teams so far and it is still over a week away from the winter meetings. Rather than quiet, these meetings I expect will be quite loud.

I also like that we have opened up 2 spots on the 40 man roster. I expect more vacancies to occur all over the league due to the non tender deadline on Dec 2nd.

Can the off season get any hotter?

Beware the single-year reverse platoon splits. For their careers, Encarnacion and Martin have normal L/R splits: 881/820 and 798/740.

All the current talk has Martin slotted for the #2 hole, but before his sexy 400 OBP in 2014, his three previous years were 327, 311 and 324. Steamer has him slated for a 340/400 season, and that would certainly play.

gotta like Donaldson's #s with RISP. 299/425/483 wRC+ 158 last year, and he was similarly unbelievably good the year before with men on.

Thanks Chuck - the figures are from the last two seasons combined. Also, the splits in 2013 and 2014 independently are consistent. That said, I agree that a longer term perspective helps - maybe not career-long though. In Martin's case, it's a question of whether you trust the first, second or third chapters of his career. Similar points on Encarnacion and Bautista - more than two years would help, but full career data and it's almost like comparing two different hitters.

The Jays have become a more serious team.  By which I mean more
‘mentally tough’; more professional.  These terms are inadequate, of
course, but they reflect the clearing-out of a certain un-gritty
attitude that Lind, Gose, Rasmus, and Juan Francisco sometimes
represented.  (A clearing-out that AA hinted was coming after the season
ended.)  None of those guys seemed like real scrappers to me.  None of
them had, say, what Pedroia has in spades.  And I wondered about Melky
sometimes. (And Reyes often.) The Latin amigos thing often didn’t seem
all that team-oriented -- more interested in the camera and in each
other than in what’s going on on the field.  I also remember near the
end of the season a scene on TV in which Gibbons was being interviewed, 
and Melky came up behind him and was making demeaning hand gestures and
pointing at Gibbons for the camera.  I wondered how long Melky (or at
least the sort of attitude his gestures suggested) would be around. 
I’ll miss Lind’s left-handed swings and Lawries’ glove; but the
character/chemistry of the 2015 team will be noticeably different to
last season’s.  Better, in my view.

It would have been nice to pick up one of the A's excess first basemen in the deal. I would have liked Ike Davis as a platoon partner to Valencia rather than Smoak. The real issues at 1st, 2nd and LF haven't been solved.

This looks to me to be a good trade for both sides, which probably means Oakland got a bit of the light end in it. Barretto is the tough loss in it, but seemed to occupy significant value in the deal given the other pieces.

My only weird regret was that the deal couldn't somehow be expanded to get Reddick. This would have improved the LF defense as well as add the lefty bat to hit somewhere in or around the Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson cluster. I hope he's still on the radar. Failing that, Michael Saunders would make an interesting target at a reduced cost.

And put me down for wanting Sean Rodriguez's versatility, good defense and good bat vs lefties. He'd give some interesting platoon options while Toronto gives Travis some seasoning in AAA.

i am just so damn happy that we're a) finally targetting legit star level players, with both additions being amongst the very best at their positions ih the game and b) that we're targetting players whose star quality is actually supported by the saber numbers, and not just reputation or stats like wins or homers.


the jays are now the only team in baseball to have two hitters that posted 5+ war last year, and the onlybteam with three 4+ war hitters too. that's awesome.

Donaldson could probably also catch in an emergency.

More personally, I was at the Jays/A's game of May 1, 2010, when Donaldson took Dana Eveland yard for his first career home run. He was catching for Oakland that day.

Donaldson can catch like Bautista can play cf "in a pinch". Basically it better be inning #24.

That said he probably does end any chance of 3 catchers.

I like this deal. I am curious at AA's approach to the offseason though. It's clear that he has at least two objectives. 1st, change the culture around the team and 2nd, plug certain roster holes at 2B/LF/DH. So far he's done substantial work on the first. But aside from the Gose-Travis deal, has done almost nothing for the second (caveat being that we obviously don't know what irons he has in the fire).

So my question is whether he's taking an "end-around" approach to task #2? By that I mean, is he basically trying to upgrade significantly at positions where he can and hope that those upgrades will mask mediocre/below-average production at 2B/LF/DH? I don't think we can afford to go into the season with 3 roster sinkholes, but I wonder whether the significant upgrades that JD and Martin bring would be able to carry a Pillar/Izturis/Smoak/Valencia combo at the "hole" positions.

What I'm liking most about this off-season is AA's bold and unconventional thinking.  Everyone assumed he would target a 2B and a LF and a couple of relievers, to fill the obvious holes, and leave it at that.  Instead he has started with two of his most challenging acquisition deals ever, and at two unexpected positions: C and 3B.  (These were challenging deals in the sense that he had to pry a lot of money from the owners -- for the costliest free-agent deal in Jays history -- and then pry Donaldson from a GM who hadn't really intended to trade him.)  Anthopoulos is realizing two things: he needs to get creative and unconventional in his moves, and he needs to have higher standards.  It's not sufficient to leave "good enough" players in most of the lineup positions.  Players like Lawrie and Navarro might have seemed "good enough" for 2015, but Anthopoulos knows that the Jays will have a much stronger chance at the playoffs if he doesn't settle for "good enough."  He needs star-calibre players to fill as many lineup spots as possible, and he needs greater depth among the pitchers and greater durability across the whole roster.  To do that, he needed to figure out which "star-level" players might be available, and then target them and pursue them aggressively.  That's exactly what he has done with Martin and Donaldson.  Arguably he should have taken this approach years ago -- although perhaps the owners weren't ready to back him up on that.

As for Sano's question above:  I'm sure AA is not finished.  He might be willing to leave a young player at CF (either Pompey or Pillar) but I'm sure he will acquire another outfielder (Melky or someone else) and an infielder too (perhaps a relatively inexpensive veteran to upgrade the position for a year until Travis is ready). 

not sure targetting positions of weakness was the primary goal here.

the team's two biggest weaknesses last year were defense and relief pitching.

so alex has gone out and grabbed two of the premiere defensive players in baseball, after letting a number of poor defenders go. the fact that he was able to upgrade the offense at the same time is not only a bonus but really kind of remarkable.

the top of the order looks so good that having a few spots at the bottom being a fight between some platoon vets and some kids should be just fine.

though remember that alex does have an offer out tyere for melky, so is planning on filling at least one more spot, and i bet he does see pompey and travis filling two other spots sooner rather than later, so in his mind those postional holes might be near filled already.

it'll be interesting to see what he does with the bullpen.

Keith Law, who seldom praises Anthopoulos, gives some rare kudos to the GM on this trade.  He says the trade has brought Toronto “one of the best players in baseball for a package of prospects that doesn’t quite add up.”

Had Donaldson remained in Oakland, his arbitration hearing would have been a blast.  The A's presumably would have been asking the arbitrator to determine that Donaldson was not one of the best 5 players in baseball over the last 2 years because he hit only .278, he didn't drive in or score 100 runs in either year and he only averaged 27 home runs.  It would have been quite funny coming from representatives of the A's. 

Don't forget those AL-leading 23 errors. Horrible fielder.

I agree he's not done. It's clear to me that he's okay with Pompey/Pillar in CF. I think he zeroes in on LF and DH and lets 2B be manned by Izturis et al until Travis is ready. But then again, AA seems to be swinging for the fences a lot lately. So I would not be surprised if a few more big moves occur to dramatically remake that position as well.

Checking the Top 30 from the gang here...
#4: Barreto
#8: Graveman
#14: Nolin

Not bad really.  An old rule Bill James would follow is seeing if anyone would've done the deal a year earlier and if not why not.  A year ago they were ranked Nolin #4, Barreto #6, Graveman not even a minor consideration.  Lawrie was a year younger with more hope of avoiding injuries.  Donaldson was off his first full ML season, but what a season (145 OPS+, 8.0 bWAR). 

So, a year ago I doubt either team does the trade, but obviously they both did this year.  It'll be interesting to see if either regrets it after 2015.

Well, if AA keeps going for top 5 at a position what is left?
Checking Steamer WAR projections (not perfect, but as good as any way to see where the Jays are)...
CA: Martin is #2, a mile behind Posey and just ahead of Yan Gomes (sigh)
1B: Encarnacion is #7, #4 is Joey Votto (yeah, yeah, I know) and #1 is Miguel Cabrera.
2B: Clear top 3 in Robinson Cano, Anthony Rendon, Dustin Pedroia (4.6 to 5.1).  3.9 to 4.1 hits Ben Zobrist, Ian Kinsler, and Matt Carpenter.  Then comes 2.9 to 3.4 Neil Walker, Howie Kendrick, Jose Altuve, Chase Utley, and Brian Dozier.  Mookie Betts and Jason Kipnis have 2.6 and 2.5.  That hits all who are projected to be better than the 2.3 Travis is projected for.  The top 6 I could see AA chasing, but the rest would purely be a safety choice in case Travis isn't ready.  For the current Jays you get 0.1 to 0.2 for Tolleson/Izturis/Goins.
3B: Josh Donaldson is ranked #1, ahead of even Miguel Cabrera should he play there.  Lawrie was #9
SS: Jose Reyes is #5 with 3.0.  Troy Tulowitzki is the only clear upgrade with Andrelton Simmons also up high (4.1)
LF: Melky Cabrera only is listed at 1.7 WAR, way down the list.  The 3+ WAR crowd is (in order) Alex Gordon, Bryce Harper, Starling Marte, Christian Yelich, Michael Brantley, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Brett Gardner, and Steve Pearce.
CF: Rasmus was at just 1.4 as was Gose.  Pompey at just 0.2 (302 PA).  Mayberry 0.2 (199 PA).  Dominated by Trout, McCutchen (both over 6), Puig (over 5), and Carlos Gomez (4.4).  Jacoby Ellsbury is at 3.7, Adam Jones 3.5 with everyone else at 3.1 or less.
RF: Jose Bautista is #2 behind Giancarlo Stanton (both over 5 along with Yasiel Puig if he is in RF and Jason Heyward... no one else over 3.1). 
DH: Edwin Encarnacion #1 with 3.7 if there, well ahead of Pujols, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz (the only other DH's over 2).

So, any names there in CF, 2B, LF who we think AA can pry out of someone's hands? 

If A.A. has a choice to get a good 1B or a good DH, I'd prefer a First Baseman that can hit like Edwin, with All Star defense. Getting a good Left-handed Hitter will be difficult and likely expensive. We lost three Bats when Lind, Cabrera and Rasmus left. Martin replaces one, but Donaldson just upgrades one. There are still two Bats to acquire, possibly three if Navarro leaves.

I'd still like to see his Bullpen acquisitions, as that's what 'makes or breaks' this Team. Whether yesterday's acquisition made this team more attractive, remains to be seen. It definitely sends a message.

Nolin and Graveman will most likely Start for Oakland in 2015. There was no room here and they were expendable. They will be kept or traded as Beane needs. And that was why you draft very young Shortstops, trade assets.

I agree with uglyone I think that AA goes with the status quo at 2nd base and center field and tries to get a left fielder and bullpen help.  And let's also not rule out a top of the line free agent starter.  In fact it may be a good idea to not rule out anything at this point.

One thing about having the big holes be 2 out of 3 of LF, 1B, DH (depending on where EE is) is that in addition to it being easier to find a decent improvement, it is likely easiest to find platoon partners for those positions. And if the players playing it aren't "name" players that think they clearly deserve an entitled starting spot, then platooning them could receive good returns.

So maybe you sign a Melky or a Cruz or whoever is a star and improve the position a lot. But if you don't, maybe you make a quieter signing, or have minor leaguers who when platooned almost hit as well as the star you could have signed (at the cost of an extra roster spot and hoping everyone stays healthy so the platoon player isn't pushed into everyday status).

it is likely easiest to find platoon partners for those positions

Matt Joyce is a career platooner (573/819) and there is talk that TB is trying to move him.

I think it makes a lot of sense to add a LF that we can platoon with Pillar. Matt Joyce would work well, as would Daniel Nava, Chris Coughlan, Oswaldo Arcia, or Alejandro De Aza. Perhaps we could work out a trade for one of these players. Andy Dirks is also an option for this role, but who knows what Dirks would provide coming off of his injury, and it's a spot we could definitely improve.

Seems to me that right now the Jays aren't getting any significant offense out of CF, 2B, LF, or DH. So this isn't going to be 17 runs every night with 4 easy outs. That can change, but it might not. The offense looks to be no better, and possibly worse, than last year--at the moment, pending more changes.

I like the trade quite a bit (recognizing that it can take a while to evaluate how well teams did in a trade), but I want to see what further moves are pending. I would like to see one more good two-way player - or a good offensive player like Melky - at LF, 1B or 2B. I think this will make it easier to run one or more unproven players like Pillar, Pompey and Travis out there in a year in which the team is expected to contend. Right now Anthopoulos is on fire - I would like to see him keep being aggressive, a la Gillick in 1992-93.

To play devil's advocate, though - would the Jays have been better off signing Headley to play third, moving Lawrie to second, and keeping Graveman, Nolin and Barreto?

Personally, I prefer the approach AA has taken, but I can see the argument for taking the Headley route.

I'm with hypobole. Donaldson's value won't necessarily translate to a large arbitration award.

To play devil's advocate, though - would the Jays have been better off signing Headley to play third, moving Lawrie to second, and keeping Graveman, Nolin and Barreto?
Personally, I prefer the approach AA has taken, but I can see the argument for taking the Headley route.
-----
I agree with this assessment: Let the A's develop Lawrie at either 2B or 3B.

chiming in to say - to early to be platooning Pillar. Get Joyce and platoon him with Mayberry, fine. But not Pillar.

Joyce would be a nice add if they used him properly. He can't hit lefties and isn't a great outfielder. He's got a career OPS of .819 vs righties, and that's playing half his games in a pitchers' park - his career road OPS is 36 points higher than at home. Platoon him with Valencia, who has a career OPS vs lefties of .870, and you've got a heck of a DH. Joyce made $3.7 million last year and would be getting a raise. He'd basically be replacing Lind, so depending on how much his salary would rise this year, he'd be a cheaper version.

All of which makes me realize another benefit to getting Donaldson - no more Valencia playing 3B vs righties when Lawrie is out for his usual allotment of games.

Also, I'm kind of surprised at talk of Donaldson being expensive - he's a star player making what, $5-6 million next year? The Red Sox just signed a guy to play 3rd who is significantly inferior to Donaldson, and they're paying him $18 million a year. Another couple of great years and Donaldson will be getting up there, too. That's fine, they have a star player under their control for 4 years at ages 29-32, and he'll be making much less that a star player for the first year or two.

I like it. It's a very rare thing to be able to acquire an all-star level player for prime-ish years without committing to a very long and rich contract. The risk on the Blue Jay side of the equation is very low - Donaldson can be expected to perform at a very high level for 4 years. The Oakland side has a lot more variability. If Lawrie is healthy for them and Barreto develops into a major leaguer and Graveman and Nolin turn out to be something more than back-of-rotation pitchers, good for them. All four of those things have some possibility of happening. But none can be called likely.

Is our top 30 now top 28? I would like to add Chase De Jong.

I ought to elaborate on my concern for 2015.  I suspect that the budget is maxed out.  The Blue Jays have sacrificed important rotation depth (in my view) for a likely marginal upgrade at third base.  I was delighted with the Martin and Travis acquisitions, but this one leaves me feeling that important holes are being ignored and others created.  I know that the organization (and many independent people) think of Sanchez and Norris as rotation depth for 2015; I don't see it that way. 

Daniel Nava would make an excellent trade target.  The only real question is whether the Red Sox would be keen to deal with a divisional rival. 
------------
I agree with Green's assessment.

CF and 2B are still concerns. If BoSox players such as Daniel Nava would be an good trade target, how about Jemile Weeks? Pedroia IS assumed to be staying. If Pillar plays CF in 2015, how about getting a former all star to fill/backup CF, just as Navarro could be a backup catcher? say Grady Sizemore ?

Obviously acquiring an all star CF or 2B would make all my above suggestions irrelevant.

I'm not convinced the budget is now maxed out, given Beeston's comment about payroll in 2015, the recent moves and apparent negotiations by the Jays, and the possibility of moving some contracts like those of Navarro and Happ. Essentially, it's hard to know if payroll is maxed out when we don't know what the payroll is.

Donaldson being only a marginal upgrade over Lawrie in 2015 is built on a number of assumptions, one of which (presumably) is good health on Lawrie's part. In light of Lawrie's track record, that assumption seems questionable. If the Jays had kept Lawrie and he ended up on the DL, who would have played third base? The gap between that player and Donaldson likely would have been immense.

The Blue Jays have sacrificed important rotation depth (in my view) for a likely marginal upgrade at third base.  I was delighted with the Martin and Travis acquisitions, but this one leaves me feeling that important holes are being ignored and others created.
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Are these characteristics part of AA's legacy ? Management knows how to upgrade a position with incumbent and farm prospects but use other methods to fill important holes ? How about using former All star and graduating prospects to fill holes? say Pillar and Sizemore for CF. The A's and Indians have been successful of getting Kazmir for 25 wins over two seasons.
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Never read much into minor league signings.
------
Regarding minor league signing, even Alex Rios who played CF could be one. 

How can the budget be maxed out if there is still, according to AA, an offer on the table for Melky and to Miller. Jays are thought to be in on Gregorson as well.

Remarks from both AA and Beeston suggest that the budget may be nowhere near maxed out. I don't know where these thoughts are coming from.

Bob McCown has gone as far as to strongly suggest that Guy Laurence himself is not only behind, but leading the charge , in creating a new image for the Jays.

Hey Tamra, nice to see you back posting and blogging!

I agree that there are lots more moves to come, and more money to spend.  I still really think a trade for Ben Zobrist makes a ton of sense - TB is cutting payroll again and he is a FA after 2015.  He'll get a QO so any package for him would have to factor that value in, but at 7.5$ he's affordable, and he can play 2B or the OF depending on which prospect of Travis, Pompey and Pillar emerges first, or if a LF platoon situation is successful. 

Francisco Liriano would also make sens - he's looking for 3-4 years at $12 per, and with a draft pick attached, his price could be a bargain.  weve already lost one pick for Martin, so losing a second less valuable) pick is less of a disincentive for us.  Happ could then be dealt to upgrade the OF, pen or 2B - which I assume will also happen with Navarro. 

I assume that AA will sign one impact reliever but will add several flier types - older guys coming off good years, or guys coming back from injury -Burke Badenhop, Joe Beimel,Jason grill, Craig breslow, Luke hochevar.  Jason Frasor just resigned with KC for 1.8 million with a mutual option for the next year at the same price, so a move or two like this would add valuable depth to the pen.  I had Nolin and Gravemen down for bullpen roles anyway, so the minimal depth we had there is further depleted. 

Lastly, I think international FAs might help us at 2b.  I know Bleacher Report isn't the strongest source, but they had a nice artilce discussing how these guys still tend to be undervalued.  I don't know much about these guys, but there are 2 veteran cuban 2b out there, Jose Fernandez and Hector Olivera, and Korean Jung-ho Kang is a talented SS. 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2281022-has-wild-mlb-spending-actually-made-international-free-agents-a-bargain


 

I think we only need a one year stop gap at 2nd to hold the fort for Travis but that does not mean we should not get the best guy we can....I agree with the above concerning relievers. I would also like to sign Liriano and trade Dickey.

It has been awhile since I have ventured an opinion here, but if I am convinced of anything, it is that AA and Rogers are all-in for this season. That does not mean that they will "spend all their substance on riotous living", as my mother used to say. They may conclude that some of their holes cannot be filled at a reasonable price before the outset of the season. Some may be better filled in June.

But the systematic way they have been going about upgrading this team, especially in places where they could have gotten by, leads me to conclude that they will not stop until they have a championship calibre team.

I especially expect them to have strengthened this team substantially by year-end in the bullpen (two more additions) and in the outfield (I now think Melky will be leaning to return, unless he gets a huge offer elsewhere). They will also enlist a platoon DH that will team up strongly with someone on our bench.

My guess is that they will hold their fire on further moves at second base until they see what Travis, Izturis, Goins and company can do in the spring.

Still, through all of the foregoing, we will be admiring their workmanlike steps.

But where I think they will shock many of us at the level of Martin and Donaldson will be by snagging one of Lester or Shields. They may even do some sort of elastic stretch of their usual "no more than five years" policy, so that they can pull this thing over the top.

I think we all know that our rotation is still a couple of sandwiches short of a full picnic, and it must be pretty obvious to AA and Laurence, too.

Anyway, Laurence is an Englishman, and they invented the phrase "in for a penny, in for a pound". I think we will see, by Christmas, that he takes that maxim to heart.

Mike Green:

How do you define marginal? Fangraphs steamer projections show a 1.6 win WAR differential for Donaldson and that assumes Lawrie has 580 PA's.

I see this as a 2 or 3 win improvement for 2015 that does not eliminate the need to fill holes in the OF, at 2B and in relief. I do think that including Graveman and Nolin makes your bullpen problem worse, but acquiring all-star talent is a rare opportunity.

There is still lots of time left to add players.

I would love to see the Jays acquire both Loney and Zobrist from the Rays (from whom Steamer predicts 1.7 and 4.1 fWAR, respectively, for 2015).

Given that Zobrist is controllable only through 2015, maybe the Jays could send the Rays two or three prospects from the tier below Sanchez/Pompey/Norris/Osuna/Urena - i.e., players like Smoral/Castro/Smith Jr./Lugo/Nay/Jimenez. Heck, the Jays could even trade one of their better prospects (Osuna, maybe) and a prospect or two from the tier mentioned. It might be worth the sacrifice.

Martin/Donaldson/Reyes/Zobrist/Loney would really set the infield up nicely for 2015. Loney's just-OK LH bat would fit well in in the lower half of the lineup and his respectable defense would help consolidate the team's defense. Zobrist's switch-hitting, versatility, and overall talent would be a big asset. Plus, both players are used to playing under Maddon and should bring the right kind of attitude for the new (more professional and focused) Blue Jays.

how well do pre-season WAR projections correlate to end of season w-l records?

i saw it asked on fangraphs a while ago but didn't see an answer show up. i can imagine roster composition changes would make it difficult...

To clarify: I think my proposed trade might put the Jays over the top as favourites in the division, even without adding a #1/2 starting pitcher. It would require the Jays to add just over $16m jn 2015 salary (Zobrist $7.5m and Loney $8.67m). Fungible relievers could then be sought.

Consider the offensive and defensive potential of the following lineup:

Reyes SS
Zobrist 2B
Bautista RF
Encarnacion DH
Donaldson 3B
Martin C
Loney 1B
Pompey CF
Pillar LF

That is a very good lineup. If the Jays really want to aim high, they could add Cabrera to the mix (say, for 3/$39m) - perhaps trading Navarro and Happ to save some money - and you could go:

Reyes SS
Cabrera LF
Bautista RF
Encarnacion DH
Donaldson 3B
Zobrist 2B
Martin C
Loney 1B
Pompey CF

Which is pretty much a dream lineup. Depends how far the Jays are willing to go to break the mould in 2015. Their extremely talented core (Bautista, EE, Martin, Donaldson, Reyes) gives them options when it comes to roster construction.

I like greenfrog's idea of trading some marginal prospects for two of another team's top players.

That does not mean that they will "spend all their substance on riotous living", as my mother used to say.

> Your Mom wins this thread.

Checking Baseball Reference they project the Jays to have a $135.5 million payroll right now.  The Yankees & Red Sox are well ahead ($186.7 and $163.0 respectively) while the Orioles are back a bit ($115.2) and Rays well back ($79.2).

I suspect Boston is near their limit, with enough for Lester but that would be it.  Baltimore wants to make a splash I'm sure but haven't had any luck.  The Yankees I doubt will go much further but one never knows - adding one of the big pitchers would push them over $200 and basically skyrocket their luxury tax.  That means for every dollar the Yankees spend above $189 mil will cost them $1.50, but if they sneak below $189 then the clock resets and they pay 'just' 17.5% for going over in 2016 so signing someone now for $20+ mil a year will actually cost closer to $30 mil plus millions extra in 2016 vs not going over.  Big incentive to hold the line on spending for them.

Right now the big potential spender is the Cubs.  They are very big market (TV deal, sold out games) but have projected payroll of just $65.6 mil or less than Tampa Bay (!!!).  They could spend $30 mil a year on both Scherzer and Lester and still have a lower payroll than the Jays. 

The Jays rank right now #5 in the AL, #9 in the majors for projected payroll.  Add a $20-30 mil player (Lester or Scherzer or Shields for example) and they are in the mid to high $150's and a top 5/6 payroll (but 3rd in the AL East...geez is this a tough division).  That is as high as I see them going.  The $155-$169 range covers the Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox - that is a group I think the Jays are targeting to be a part of.  High payroll but not insane (Yankees, Dodgers).  So if Rogers is really pushing it they could get to $169 and be 3rd in ML payroll but I doubt it.  I really see them targeting $150 as a 'magic number' since it would sound good, put them in that upper tier (not insane tier).

I like greenfrog's idea of trading some marginal prospects for two of another team's top players.

Sarcasm! I get it.

It's true - the prospect package I mentioned might be insufficient to land Zobrist and/or Loney, but note that Zobrist is only controllable for a year. These days, one year of a good player (who will be 34 next year) simply isn't going to net you a big prospect haul.

Also, Loney is making quite a bit (close to $20m over the next two years) and is coming off a 716 OPS year (0.9 fWAR in 651 PA). So "two of another team's top players" isn't actually close to being accurate. Loney is way down the list, after Archer, Cobb, Moore, Odorizzi, Smyly, Longoria, Myers, Kiermayer, etc. The phrase sounds impressive in a superficial way, though - I can see why you used it.

Mike Green:
How do you define marginal? Fangraphs steamer projections show a 1.6 win WAR differential for Donaldson and that assumes Lawrie has 580 PA's. I see this as a 2 or 3 win improvement for 2015 that does not eliminate the need to fill holes in the OF, at 2B and in relief. I do think that including Graveman and Nolin makes your bullpen problem worse, but acquiring all-star talent is a rare opportunity.

There is still lots of time left to add players.

As I said upthread, I don't agree with the Steamer projection for Donaldson.  Chuck and I had a discussion or two here about Donaldson some time ago, long before this trade.  I think that he's a difficult player to project because of his unique career path.  If Donaldson is a 3 win improvement over Lawrie, it'll probably more than offset the loss of Graveman and Nolin.  If it's a 2 win improvement, it might do so by less than a win.  If it's a 1 win improvement or less, I'd bet that the A's end up better off on the challenge in 2015.

I agree that there is lots of time left to add players.  What is not so clear is whether there is any money at all.  The structuring of Martin's contract suggests that there might not be much.  I suppose that the club may trade Navarro for starting pitcher depth; this might be possible without spending.  We shall see. 

Some analysts have expressed amazement that the club was able to acquire Donaldson without parting with one of their top prospects (Sanchez, Pompey, Norris).  I don't see it that way at all.  I would have been a lot happier with a straight Donaldson for Lawrie and Norris deal.   I don't see Norris as likely to help the major league club in 2015, and I don't see much difference at all in the long-term value of Norris and Barreto. 

In determining what's next, A.A. usually takes about 7-10 days to do something. That gets us right at the start of the Winter Meetings and that might cause a bit of a delay. Anyone who feels they need to sign before the Meetings will sign soon. Almost everything not in the works now, will wait for the Meetings. Final decision time for Melky is around now.

If Navarro is traded, in bigger package or not, what comes back will be interesting, in future deals (Votto?). Without acquiring an Ace, I don't think a Starter moves, unless better comes here first. I don't know what A.A. can still do in trades, because I don't know what he's trading. Signing Free Agents is cheaper and easier, it just costs money.

Greenfrog's trade proposal makes plenty of sense to me.  Zobrist is definitely underpaid, but Loney is definitely overpaid. the prospects he listed are hardly 'marginal'.  Our system is good, even after trading for Donaldson.  It will take a hit in the rankings, just like after the Miami deal, but look at how quickly we rebounded.  Our lower levels are stacked, and these players tend not to carry as much weight when evaluating a pool of prospects. 

for example, even after trading 3 top twenty guys, Detroit's number one prospect still sits close to the bottom of our top ten. 

BTW Mike Green, do you ever like big prospect-for-veteran type deals?

An interesting idea... the Rockies are trying to clear some salary, their LF pre-2014 was Carlos Gonzalez who hit quite well (121 OPS+ lifetime, 144 in 2013) but just an 89 OPS+ in 2014 when he played just 70 games.  He is entering his age 29 season, signed for 3 years for $51 mil.  He has 3 years of 4+ WAR, but a -0.7 last year.  Hits left handed which is a big asset in this lineup.  His UZR/150 pre 2014 was solid, but collapsed last year so his career is now -0.9.  If healthy he could be as good or better than Melky was last year.  If not healthy he would be useless.  Is he worth chasing down?  The rumor mill also has Troy Tulowitzki as potentially available.  One of the few SS who could be worth more than Reyes but is injury prone ala Lawrie and signed through 2020 at roughly $20 mil per year.

So, take on both and send them some of our salary clearance (Reyes, Romero, Happ...doubt they want Navarro as they have good CA depth) but leaving them with tons of savings.  Send them a prospect or two of course as well (not the A list, but next tier) and you might have a deal although they might have a bit of a rebellion from fans over it - all depends how desperate they are to clear payroll.  High risk, high reward opportunity which could solve LF and upgrade SS (ala the 3B and CA upgrades).

FYI: Gonzalez is projected by Steamer to be a 2.3 fWAR, Tulowitzki 5.8 - that would add about 4 wins to the Jays projection with the old 'if healthy' addition.  Still, very scary risk and might be expensive in prospects if Colorado isn't desperate to clear salary.

Ken Rosenthal, whose sources are usually solid, says that the Jays are considering signing Alberto Callaspo to play second base, which suggests that the Jays aren't completely tapped out (but that they might not be flush with cash, either).

Steamer likes Callaspo for a 1.0 fWAR (93 wRC+) in 605 PA in 2015.

"The Blue Jays have sacrificed important rotation depth (in my view) for a likely marginal upgrade at third base. "

love you, Mike, but this is a crazy statement.

Donaldson has been worth 14.1war the last two years, lawrie has been worth 3. that's an average of 5.5 wins more per year. and that doesn't even include the negstive value of the guys who had to fill in when he was injured.

that is an absolutely massive upgrade.

the word "marginal" applies much more suitably to the second half of your statement - as in the marginal significance of depth pitchers nolin and graveman compared to Estrada, Norris, Sanchez, Redmond, etc.

all due respect, Mike, but you're getting which end is "marginal" and which is "important" completely mixed up.

4th in runs scored last year with '??' at 2b/3b for most of the year, and missing Edwin for over a month.

If healthy, they're going to score in bunches next year even if the season started tomorrow.

The pitching seems like the major area of concern to me. Pretty much everyone on the staff outperformed what anyone thought they'd do last year. There's a chance stroman is better than he was (peripherals indicate he's an ace in the making), but he also gave up 5+ ER in 1/4 of his starts.

What AA has done so far is get guys that have a good history of staying healthy. That will give them flexibility on the bench if they need to carry a 3rd catcher, or if they want to run a couple platoons if need be (either because the FA markets back him into that, or injury during the season).

if rumours about the cash rogers is willing to pony up are true, i think the jays are in a very good spot today to make adjustments that won't impair the long term health of the club by further depleting the farm. i'm excited to see what they do - it looks like AA is more into making "baseball" moves than picking up sleepers according to seamheads.

yeah, people complaining about holes in the lineup this year have to remember that we were one of the best offenses in baseball last year with next to nothing from CF and 2B (hilariously bad 76wRC+ for both slots overall, amongst the worst positional team performances in all mlb), and pretty poor contributions overall from 3B and C (both under 90wrc+).

at the moment we've downgraded lf and dh, while upgrading 3b and c....while probably having a more hopeful outlook for cf and 2b, too. and it doesn't sound like we're done, either.

mlbtr has a rumour that the jays are interested in callaspo...why? they already have izturis who is about as close as you can get to the exact same player. to wit:
PLayer A: 269/331/372
PLayer B: 267/330/370

career lines for the aforementioned. it's not like callaspo is ryan goins on defense or anything, either, as far as i can see, anyway.

Callaspo would be a spring training speed bump for Travis Devon. Travis will blow past him. Devon will be Divine - and this year.

Ken Rosenthal, whose sources are usually solid, says that the Jays are considering signing Alberto Callaspo to play second base, which suggests that the Jays aren't completely tapped out (but that they might not be flush with cash, either).

Or it may just suggest that the market prices of people like Stephen Drew, who may be an option at 2nd, don't come close to justifying the cost differential above Callaspo. Rightly or wrongly, the Jays seem committed to keeping Reyes at ss, so the Jays don't need to pay ss prices for a 2nd baseman. Moreover, if you recall it was only a year ago that Boras was calling Drew a 'legacy free agent' who deserved top dollar. Drew last year slashed .162/.237/.299, and put up a 51 OPS+. As bad as Callaspo was last year, he wasn't that bad.

An interesting question is where would the Jays be if none of the big trades these past few years happened.  We've reviewed them a few times but just for fun...

Happ trade: Joseph Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins, Asher Wojciechowski, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Kevin Comer
So far only Cordero & Francisco have ML time since the trade.  Comer in A ball with a 4.52 lifetime ERA, Wojciechowski entering his age 26 season 4.74 ERA in AAA last year (2.5 BB/9 7.0 K), Rollins in AA last year entering age 25 season (8.9 K/9 is nice with 2.5 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 but age and level put a damper on it), Carlos Perez is a catcher in AAA entering his age 24 season 709 OPS last year in PCL, Musgrove entering age 22 season, A- last year (NYP) 2.81 ERA 1.2 BB/9 but just 7.8 K/9 (nice but not wow).  None of Happ's gang would be in the top 10 here I suspect, although Perez would have a shot at backup if Thole & Navarro are traded but would still be behind AJ Jimenez as well.

Reyes/Johnson/Buehrle/etc. trade: Justin Nicolino, Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick and Jeff Mathis sent away.  All have reached but Nicolino.  Alvarez would be solid in the rotation here right now (144 ERA+ last year in 187 IP).  Nicolino is a top 100 prospect on some lists but had just 4.3 K/9 in AA last year.  DeSclafani got 33 IP in the majors but a 61 ERA+ but solid 3.77 FIP suggests he could be decent.  Escobar had a 3.3 WAR, then a -0.2 year (all defense from 1.4 to -1.6).  Hechavarria was -1.6 WAR and +0.6 the past 2 years.  Marisnick in 105 ML games is +1.3 WAR but that 58 lifetime WAR makes me question it (all due to defense).  Mathis has a 48 OPS+ in Miami and net 0 WAR.  Clearly Escobar would've been our SS in 2013, and by the end of 2014 Hechavarria might have taken over, while Alvarez would be the #1 guy here (sans Buehrle, Dickey, Happ) and DeSlafani would be a hot prospect fighting for a rotation slot.

Dickey Trade: Wuilmer Becerra, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Travis d'Arnaud.  This is the one that hurts. d'Arnaud after a very slow start to his career finished with a 105 OPS+ and lifetime is at 0 WAR but expect that to climb quickly as long as no more concussions happen.  Syndergaard is a top 20 prospect, maybe a top 10 in MLB - very surprised the Mets resisted calling him up last year.  Becerra hasn't left the rookie leagues yet but is just entering his age 20 season, had a 819 OPS last year in RF.   Buck was salary relief and barely stayed over 0 WAR over the 2 years.  d'Arnaud would be well back of Martin here of course, but Syndergaard would be fighting hard to be in the rotation and is a potential #1.

So without those trades we'd see...
Rotation: Alvarez, Stroman,  Hutchison, and a batch of kids fighting for the last 2 slots (Syndergaard & Sanchez the favorites, closely followed by Nolan, Norris, and Graveman with DeSclafani and Nicolino thinking they have a shot plus a few others I'm sure).
SS: Hechavarria or Escobar, probably Escobar at SS and Hechavarria at 2B - low offense but solid D.
LF/CF: Marisnick fighting with Pillar, Pompey, and (if his trade didn't happen) Gose.

An interesting team.  Very cheap with tons of potential but not a contender unless everything fell into place.

With those many prospects there would not be enough playing time for all to shine. With different teams, many more playing time chances due to different factors affecting roster configuration.

So regarding former Jays, could Alex Rios and Aaron Hill be interesting to AA this off-season ? Hill had underperformed in Toronto and performed well with Arizona; he underperformed in 2014, shall the D-backs take a chuck of his salary ?

I think Callaspo has a lot more left in the tank than Izturis. Yes, Callaspo had a bad year in 2014, but over the previous 3 seasons, his OPS comes in at .712, and he's only 31. Izturis is 34, and has done little with the bat since 2011. His OPS since then is .615, and marginal big leaguers like him are usually about done by their mid 30's. Plus, he's coming off a significant knee injury.

Another player I see on Rotoworld as a possibility for the Jays is Kendrys Morales. Had a poor season in 2014 after sitting out the first couple of months, and is probably never going to be the player he was prior to the ridiculous injury he suffered in that home plate celebration, but he was pretty solid in 2012, 2013, with OPS just under .800 each year. Switch hitter who hits righties better than lefties.

callaspo's bat might rebound but the numbers say he can't field 2b in any way, shape, or form.

Don't think Hill fits the Jays anymore.  His UZR/150 has been negative for the past two years, and declining 4 years in a row since he peaked the year before being traded away.  B-R's fielding measure has him as a negative defensively as well for each of the past 2 years.  Offensively his OPS+ was just 81 last year, and he is entering his age 33 season.  Rarely do 2B recover at that age (Roberto Alomar's last great year was age 33, then he never had an OPS+ over 90 for example).  He is owed $12 mil per for each of 2015 and 2016 so I'd stay far away from him.

Although I know nothing of Donaldson's locker room "presents", there does appear to be a conscious effort to remove certain types.  There were some rumblings about Lind not being the best there either, and if they wanted to get a more "mature" group, moving out Lawrie obviously makes sense from that perspective, again, from the limited view that all of us can get by the odd Sportsnet shot into the dugout, etc.

I was similarly surprised to see the comment re: interest in Callaspo considering Izturis will be back, which may mean they are worried about Izturis's ability to come back.  Izturis has been forgotten in many of the Jays roster construction comments - if healthy, gotta assume he'll be the starting 2B.  Callaspo would give a capable backup at 2b/3b/1b/DH, I guess, so if they are interested in adding depth, I get it.  Hard to see him being as bad as last year.

I am interested, however, to see how all these pieces fit.  Have to assume that Valencia feels pretty redundant now with all the RHBs in the lineup, and a guy like Andy Dirks would seem to have a pretty good opportunity to land a job at present.  Still feels that more moves are coming, but my guess would be that if they are going to upgrade anywhere, it would be LF rather than 2B.

Callaspo holds absolutely 0 interest for me. He would land under the 'why did we do that' category of signing much like Izturis has.  He is entering his age 32 season, had a 67 OPS+ last year, 93 lifetime.  Was playing 3B primarily for the 4 years before last thus probably isn't the best at 2B.  Last time he was over 1 for WAR was 2012.  No way on earth do I even kick the tires with him.  Izturis should be about the same and both I'd say would be lucky to be worth 1 WAR in everyday play.  Tolleson should be about as good and cheaper.  Goins gives you 'wow' defense but no offense which can be valuable off the bench.  Kawasaki could be resigned and would give you more overall.  I just don't see any point to signing Callaspo.

...and Callaspo hits left-handers better than right-handers.  He plays a decent third base and can hit left-handers to some degree.  He's ideally suited to the Danny Valencia role, but he's not as good.  The Blue Jays don't need him.

Ha, this quote from Donaldson struck me as somehow funny. At least he is a fan of the new (old) uniforms.

"Rogers Centre struck him as a fun, hitter-friendly place to play with loud fans. And as a bonus, he likes the Blue Jays’ gear. 'I’ll tell you what, those uniforms are pretty sexy,' he said."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-donaldson-went-from-afterthought-to-elite-blue-jays-lawrie-trade/

Izturis made a fair amount of sense at the time (if you look at his pre-Jays career, a 3/$10 contract looked like an easy one for him to make look good...and I imagine he would have but for the unfortunate injury last year).  Other than last year, Callaspo's bat has been pretty consistent, with a good walk rate.  Last year the BABIP cratered and he obviously had a bad year.  I'm not over the moon enthused, but I can see him being an acceptable buy-low.  Tolleson managed a 90 wRC+ last year while heavily platooned, and needed at .336 BABIP to do that.  Muni was 78.  I do think just handing the job to Izturis is probably the best approach provided they don't acquire an upgrade, guess I just see how a cheap (very, very cheap) Callaspo could improve the floor of this team. 

Morales would seem to make some sense, in that he wouldn't require platooning in the same way Lind would.  No idea what he would cost though.  Last year was pretty absolutely terrible for him.

I know people have dismissed it out of hand, but really, Navarro has hit well enough to DH, from both sides of the plate.

Last 3yrs vs. LHP:

D.Navarro: 233pa, 135wrc+ (2yrs: 213pa, 139wrc+)
D.Valencia: 282pa, 134wrc+ (2yrs: 226pa, 156wrc+)
J.Mayberry: 370pa, 121wrc+ (2yrs: 190pa, 126wrc+)

Last 3yrs vs. RHP:

J.Smoak: 864pa, 102wrc+ (2yrs: 517pa, 118wrc+)
D.Navarro: 626pa, 101wrc+ (27rs: 573pa, 101wrc+)


Given that he doesn't need to be platooned, and that he and Martin can switch roles to give Martin rest, possibly allowing us to carry an extra non-catcher bat on the bench....it might be a pretty good solution.

How about Craig Kimbrel as a trade target? He's signed through 2017 - 9.25 million, 11.25, 13.25 and a team option for 13 in 2018.  With the Heyward deal, it looks like Atlanta's building for down the road.  He'd be expensive, but he's as close to elite as there is in the relief role. 

You going to have to give up significant prospects plus pay Kimbrel - I'd rather just do only 1 - Pay Miller or someone else - try to Trade for someone like Maurer - actually do those 2 things & I'm happy.

Dustin Ackley played a plus 2b before Cano moved him - I won't mind acquiring him - 3 yrs control & LHB with power that should play up at Rogers Centre.

I don't expect the Jays to pick up someone who can be reasonably expected to outproduce Navarro with the bat at DH, and the roster could be a lot better if the Jays could convince Navarro to catch Dickey and dump Thole. With Donaldson at 3B you can do that and still use Navarro at DH a little easier - if you lose your catcher and insist on keeping the DH you'd have another option. Navarro was a tremendously clutch hitter last year (stating a fact without getting into the clutch as a skill argument) and I don't think it will be much of an issue if he is your DH/#7 hitter. If the Jays can get value by trading Navarro and pick up a better DH that'd be great, but otherwise I don't think it's a position of need right now - that would be OF + RP.

For his career, Navarro is .247/.317/.330 in high leverage situations and .250/.319/.355 with runners on base.  He has done better with no one on and in lower leverage situations. Clutch hitting hasn't been a repeatable skill for him.  If you put Navarro at DH and Encarnacion at first base, you're getting a poor defender at first base and a below average offensive player at DH (an average hitter but a below average baserunner).  It's not a good use of resources.  With the talent on hand, they are better running out a Smoak/Valencia platoon at first base and DHing Encarnacion.  Better than that would be finding a left-handed hitting first baseman who can field the position decently.

Tidbits of ideas:

About closer experience, Is Canadian John Axford available ?

About versatility, if Danny Valencia is redundant, could he be trained to play 2B with Buffalo, increasing his versatility value ? For Izturis, slowly easing him from starting 2B to an infield utility role is a good way to handle his playing time as he is entering age 34 and beyond. Like Izturis, Tolleson is in the same category though younger. 2B Jake Elmore is listed on the same mlbtr news page with Axford, are middle infielders like Elmore and Cardinal's Dean Anna of Sctuaro's type -- good obp, occasional power, good avg -- appealing to the Jays? Shall graduating AAA batters fight for playing time of a position during this coming spring training ?

In the light of these ideas, AA's trade for Donaldson with prospects and Lawrie makes sense: getting a finished all-star farm product. How about the price of getting Jose Altuve from the Astros ?

How about Craig Kimbrel as a trade target? He's signed through 2017 - 9.25 million, 11.25, 13.25 and a team option for 13 in 2018.  With the Heyward deal, it looks like Atlanta's building for down the road.  He'd be expensive, but he's as close to elite as there is in the relief role.

He's maybe -- maybe --  the only guy I would break my "Don't give up assets for relievers" rule to get.

Aaron Hill would be a very far stretched from money resources to get from the D-backs: he doesn't fit Jays' need. Maybe the Yankees would like him.

One thing about platooning/grouping players with low oWAR or dWAR contribution, how could a team like Jays maximize their WAR contributions ? Say mixing Valencia and Mayberry types (huge hitting split against pitching handedness), bench batters (Tolleson) with graduating farm prospects like Pillar ?

Navarro is 'plan B' at DH I suspect.  Plan A is unknown to us (trying to guess AA this winter is extremely hard - outside of getting rid of Lind did anyone see the other stuff coming outside of 'boy wouldn't Martin be nice').

I suspect Happ is being packaged to get a LF or as part of a package to upgrade further at 1B/DH (well past Navarro).  I'm thinking right now AA isn't looking for 'lets take cheap guy who might do better' deals, but instead for 'lets get this guy who is playing well'.  LF is probably the biggest hole right now, but might be lower priority since Melky doesn't seem to be getting the offers he wanted.  So finding a high end 1B who can play defense would be #1.  Trying to figure out who could be available at 1B who is star calibre right now... not easy... hrm... most are signed to reasonable long term deals thus not likely to be traded, or expensive long term deals thus, again, not likely.  The pricey ones are Adrian Gonzalez (4 years $21.5 per) entering age 33 season projected 3.4 fWAR, Joey Votto (4.4 fWAR projected signed for 9 more years).  Both could be available but do the Jays really want to go there?  Freddie Freeman has a lot more reasonable deal (7 years but sub $10 mil this then $12, $17, and $21-22 after that) and rumour are Atlanta is considering cutting payroll.  Atlanta also has Justin Upton in LF who is a free agent post-2015 while making $14.5 this year.  That could work... $23 mil this year and then just the one guy after but the cost would be high (at least one of the big prospects plus others).  Still, if the Jays did that boy would the lineup be super-scary to all other teams with a top 5 offensive guy in LF, RF, 3B, 1B, SS, CA, and DH leaving only 2B and CF as weak offensively while the payroll would be in the $150's but could be reduced by clearing out Navarro and Happ thus shifting back to the $140's.  But what would Atlanta want for two quality hitters in their primes - that would be a ransom demand I'm sure (all of Sanchez, Norris, Osuna and more).  But would it be worth it?  I suspect so.  Still, Atlanta would be nuts to trade Freeman so I doubt it could happen.  Upton though... he could be available on his own at a reasonable price due to the single year of control.

Fun to daydream.  Advantage of AA doing what he did a couple years ago, going out and pulling off a 'wow' deal indicating anything can happen.

Navarro has much more value to a team that needs a starting catcher -- a role that he cannot occupy on the Jays any more.   He has value as a premium-position player for those teams, not for the Jays.  So it makes sense to trade him for assets, and acquire a DH for a cheaper price, either on the free-agent market or the trade market.  Even a platoon DH could be an adequate acquisition for the Jays, if they plan to allow some of their veteran hitters (Bautista, Reyes, Encarnacion etc) to rotate through the DH slot to reduce their exposure to turf-related wear-and-tear.  

Looking at the lineup as it currently exists: Melky Cabrera would be a great fit.  And with Nelson Cruz signing with the Mariners, the competition for Cabrera has significantly reduced.  If the Jays can sign Cabrera (or another good LF hitter), their lineup from 1-to-6 would be a powerhouse.  Then they can get away from Pompey or Pillar at CF, and they can focus on getting a cheap DH and some bullpen arms.   Unless AA thinks he has the money to upgrade the starting rotation too.

The second-last sentence of my post above should, of course, read: "Then they can get away WITH Pompey or Pillar at CF...."

Fun to daydream.  Advantage of AA doing what he did a couple years ago, going out and pulling off a 'wow' deal indicating anything can happen.
----
If Lind was still a Jays, swapping Votto with Lind plus prospects could have make sense ? Donaldson for Lawrie and prospects is possible, why not Votto for Lind plus guys ?

Finding a better fielding 1B would potentially have an even greater benefit to the Jays than it would to most clubs given Donaldson's throwing issues (and Reyes had some throwing issues this season as well).

This would another point in favour, in addition to those aready made, why there's benefit to dealing Navarro and moving Encarnacion to the DH role on a regular basis.

Amazing. I thought pointing out that I am merely stating a fact from last year would spare me the lecture, but apparently not. Thankfully I have access to Baseball-Reference and know how to look up a player's statistics...

Smoak has hit .225/.314/.397 vs. RHP the last 3 seasons. Navarro has hit .279/.323/.406 over the same time frame. With the talent on hand they are better off doing what I said, not spending an additional 3m on Smoak.

If Dioner Navarro had any trade value as a full-time C the Jays wouldn't have been able to sign him last season at 2/8m. I'm all for trading him, I'm just skeptical they'll be any better off by doing so.

I'm not a fan of Smoak at all, and agree with chinafan that Navaro has more value to a team needing a catcher than to us as DH.  If he's our DH, we may need to keep Thole in case there is an in-game injury to Martin - we don't want to lose the DH. 

the loney and zobrist idea mentioned by greenfrog earlier in the thread makes some real sense though.

still think Navarro and his 110wrc+ last 3yrs, 111wrc+ last 2yrs, is an underrated option for DH, especially since he saves us the need to platoon there which frees up a bench spot itself, and he could be the backup C which frees up yet another bench spot.

For $5m not sure you could find a fulltime DH who has posted 110wrc+ the last 3yrs.

That being said, he does have good trade value, and might be the perfect guy to swap for a quality 2B.

Nobody has mentioned or not much, the Dec 2nd non tender deadline. I am very interested in this list. Would there be about 50 players on this list?
Would it be a needle in a hay stack type list? Was EE on this list?

I am still wide eyed by all the moves in baseball, and the silence of the NYY.

Then they can get away with Pompey or Pillar at CF, and they can focus on getting a cheap DH and some bullpen arms.
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the loney and zobrist idea mentioned by greenfrog earlier in the thread makes some real sense though.
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Mayberry, Danny Valencia, Loney could then be swapped for Votto ? The Reds' LF needs improvement too, Mayberry's playing time in NL could ease him to that role. He and Heisey could save playing time for Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce. Zobrist would be a good acquisition but where would Izturis, Tolleson go ?

SS Reyes
LF Cabrera
RF Bautista
1B Votto
DH EE
3B Donaldson
2B Zobrist
C Martin
CF Pillar

This is a scary lineup to opponent.

I have wanted the Jays to take a flier on Kyle Blanks for a while now and think he is do to break out in a big way anytime now, all he needs is some good luck in the health department. He would be a great fit if he was a LH batter, but I would prefer him to Smoak and he would cost a lot less. Not sure what his defense at 1B is like but he could also be a back up LF.

"If he's our DH, we may need to keep Thole in case there is an in-game injury to Martin - we don't want to lose the DH. "

I think we'd be fine losing the DH for one or two at bats in the rare occasion that the starting C gets injured in-game.

One problem with Zobrist/Loney is that the Jays and Rays don't really match up very well. The Rays have a shot in 2015 - why would they cede this and lend a major assist to a divisional rival? It might be different if the Rays were weaker and were going through a true rebuilding. The Rays could be quite decent next year.

interestingly, the Red Sox would be kind of a perfect fit for Navarro, since they'd probably one a stop-gap vet partner for young Vazquez, and they have a number of 1B/LF/DH-type bats to match up with us.

One other point about Navarro:  I wouldn't be surprised if Anthopoulos informally promised him a starting-catcher job, and that was one reason why Navarro accepted the $8-million two-year deal as a free agent.  He doesn't want to be a back-up, understandably, and he was probably assured by the Jays a year ago that they saw him as their starting catcher, so that he can rebuild his value as a starter.  If another team is now willing to acquire Navarro as a starter, can Anthopoulos ethically keep him as a back-up catcher and part-time DH in his walk year, thereby potentially depriving him of millions of dollars in his 2016 free-agent contract?  Yes, of course the Jays can legally and contractually do whatever they want with Navarro, and I can already see most Jays fans scoffing at the notion that the Jays have any kind of moral obligation to Navarro.  I can already predict the reaction here:  "Navarro is being paid $4-million in 2015, that's a handsome sum of money, he agreed to it, and he'll do whatever the Jays tell him to do. He can like it or lump it."  Many fans get very angry at the notion of unofficial verbal understandings between teams and players.  It smacks of spoiled arrogance by players.  But the reality is that a lot of baseball teams have these kinds of verbal understandings.  People were angry that the Jays kept John Buck as their starting catcher throughout September 2010 when JPA was thought to be the catcher of the future -- but it later transpired that the Jays had made a verbal promise to Buck and they kept it.  The reason?  Negotiating credibility, and the need to attract free agents to Toronto by any means necessary.  If you break a verbal agreement with a player, the word gets around the league, and other free agents are less likely to sign.  Navarro proved in 2014 that he's good enough to be a starting catcher for a lot of teams in the major leagues, and it might be unfair of the Jays to turn him into a back-up catcher and DH in 2015, thereby damaging his ability to get a starting job in the future.  It might seem a little absurd, but that's the reality of baseball, and that's the reality of Toronto's weak negotiating position for potential free agents.  They need to keep their promises.

Navarro has much more value to a team that needs a starting catcher -- a role that he cannot occupy on the Jays any more.   He has value as a premium-position player for those teams, not for the Jays.

This is exactly why I cannot understand why keeping Navarro is anything other than a fallback.  And he wants out, since he needs that full time catching job to establish his value for next winter when he'll be a UFA.

It's like having an extra starting SS and playing them at DH.  Navarro can upgrade more than a few teams behind the dish, so the Jays are presumably going to find a spot where he can do that for someone else and get an asset back that fills a spot where they have a need.

What is in it for the Reds?  If you had Joey Votto would you consider giving him up for those 3?

Mayberry, Danny Valencia, Loney could then be swapped for Votto..

No need to put Loney in with Mayberry and Valencia already headlining this package. Perhaps one of the marginal prospects left over from the Tampa fleecing could be substituted.

And that's how you turn Erik Kratz into Joey Votto in three easy steps.

Perhaps one of the marginal prospects left over from the Tampa fleecing could be substituted.

ComebyDeanChance, I don't understand how 2 of Smoral/Castro/Smith Jr./Lugo/Nay/Jimenez  along with an Osuna calibre player is a fleecing.  Zobrist has one year left, and Loney slugged a mighty .380 last year (415 for his career) as a 1b who will earn around 9 million next year.  sure his value is largely in his glove, but this still seems a reasonable package to me? 

You don't get players projected for 3.8 WAR on reasonable contracts with no risk attached (because the contract expires at the end of the year) without giving something up.  Those guys require elite prospects.

Think of the Heyward-Miller deal from a few weeks back.  Heyward was projected for 5 WAR, and he cost Miller (a MLB starter with a great pedigree and 4 more years of control) and a good pitching prospect.  You won't get Ben Zobrist for a collection of B- prospects, to say nothing of asking for Loney too.

I think Navarro is as good as gone, for reasons that have been mentioned here but which I will repeat nonetheless.

1) The whole "being nice to an impending FA who you told would be the start C when he signed" part can't be ignored. Baseball is a small world where reputation for fair dealing matters a lot. Players know who does right by their guys (John Buck, anyone?) and those who will screw them (Astros, anyone?).

2) Navarro has value as a trade chip, and we have holes to fill at 2B, LF and in the bullpen. He's on a good contract and can be an everyday catcher. That isn't going to bring back a superstar, but it should be more than enough to get a very good reliever to plug one of those holes.

3) Using him at DH is a poor allocation of resources and roster spots, particularly since there is no guarantee he will outplay a "mix and match" approach that uses Mayberry, Valencia, Smoak and whoever needs a day off the concrete (Jose, EE, Reyes, etc.). Why clog up DH for a guy who isn't going to be better than that?

When you boil it down, it's exceedingly simple: Navarro is more valuable to a team that isn't us, and we have holes that need filling. If we can do that in salary-neutral way (or even free up salary if the reliever is paid less), we will.

I also like the idea of us matching up with the Red Sox for some of their surplus outfielders, but I think it's more likely Dionner helps solve our issues in the pen.

I also think we should (and might) sign Lester. 5 years, 120 million + 2 easily vesting options w/ buyouts if they don't vest. We stay within our 5 year policy, Lester gets paid, we get an ace (although I also want to state for the record that I think Stroman is an ace in waiting).

And, if Guy Laurence is really going to open up the chequebook, re-sign Melky, leaving us only with one major weakness, 2b. In that case, take a whole bunch of crap, throw it at the wall and hope something sticks. If nothing does, run Goins out there everyday and live with 1 black hole in the lineup - we could more than afford that with our impressive lineup of bats.

We have 2 extra spots on the 40 man now with Nolin and Graveman gone - can they be used on players not currently protected, like Stilson and McFarland?  I'm still confused about their omission given the presence of a bunch of AAAA guys on the 40 man. 

Tomorrow is the non-tender deadline, and it might give us a better understanding of AA's plans.  Among the non-tender candidates are Mayberry, Valencia, Dirks and Smoak.  Can the Jays realistically keep all four of those players on the 25-man roster in 2015, especially when they are still likely to acquire another outfielder, another infielder and another DH/1B type over the rest of the off-season?

"3) Using him at DH is a poor allocation of resources and roster spots, particularly since there is no guarantee he will outplay a "mix and match" approach that uses Mayberry, Valencia, Smoak and whoever needs a day off the concrete (Jose, EE, Reyes, etc.). Why clog up DH for a guy who isn't going to be better than that?"

not sure I get this part.

wouldn't having a platoon DH "clog up" the roster more than having one switch hitting DH with a similar performance?

Jervant, I have to confess to not being as knowledgeable on minor league prospects as many round here.  what do you see as a package that Tampa would go for with Zobrist and loney coming back?

Considering the divisional factor as well, I'd be very surprised if either player was moved without one of Sanchez or Norris going the other way (and then more), but the bottom line is I just don't see why Tampa would solve a divisional rivals greatest holes in one fell swoop.

Zobrist would be a good acquisition but where would Izturis, Tolleson go ?

Away. Far, far away.

"....I just don't see why Tampa would solve a divisional rivals greatest holes in one fell swoop....."

With two Wild Card playoff positions available these days, does "divisional rival" really mean so much any more?  Oakland is a "Wild Card rival" of the Jays, yet Oakland has been willing to ship some great talent to the Jays in trade deals in recent weeks.  I'm not sure if Tampa would be unwilling to deal with Toronto if the deal was a good one for Tampa's needs.

Fair enough, and especially if Tampa isn't "going for it" in a particular year.  Actually, it may be more the team giving up the prospects that would fear sending young cost-controlled talent for a rental, especially as long as the schedule continues to have 50% of your games being played intra-division...

Yes, I had forgotten about the intra-division games.  I suppose the larger number of head-to-head games within the division could be a deterrent.  But not an overwhelming factor, one would think.

I can't see norris or sanchez going for one year of zobrist.  we got 4 years of donaldson for 3 B- type prospects and Lawrie, and Donaldson's the best 3b man in the game.  Lawrie obviously has serious value, but the injuries are a major red flag. 

the divisional factor is legitimate, but moreso if the Rays are trying to win next year.  are they?  they gave up a year and a half of Price for what many considered an underwhelming package. 

"wouldn't having a platoon DH "clog up" the roster more than having one switch hitting DH with a similar performance?"

Of course. The team would be much better off if Navarro was the backup C AND the DH, provided you don't need to force a Dickey trade to do so.

Martin, as one of the premiere defensive catchers in baseball, should be able to handle the knuckbleball, no?

So with Nelson Cruz getting $58M over 4 years, what do you say Melky will get? Whether we sign Melky or not it certainly will be nicer to face Baltimore without Cruz in their lineup. He had some huge game winning hits last year. This really hurts Baltimore.

I like how you think uglyone. You get a lot more bang for your buck with Navarro at 5m at backup C/DH than Thole at 1.75m. Sure, Navarro might have a problem only catching 40 games, but he may want to consider that not catching as much may actually mask his catching deficiencies and allow him to secure another 2 year deal as a backup C good enough to warrant 300-400 PA in your lineup.

...we got 4 years of donaldson for 3 B- type prospects and Lawrie,...

Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin will start for Oakland next year, as expected by myself and some others. Oakland's a consistent Playoff Team, unlike other Teams I know. I fully expect Graveman to be a Number 3 Starter, soon. I believe Nolin won't be better than that. At present I believe they would currently be about our 7th through 11th Starter. It's just that Toronto's Starting Staff is as good (more experienced) or better than that.

Brett Lawrie was changing his training routine (his words). He's now playing on grass in a Park with big foul ball spaces. He'll be a Star.

It's possible Franklin Barreto is the Gem of the trade. He could be Oakland's Starting Shortstop in 2017. These were not the best we had to trade, but they are a lot better than any B- type prospects.

Great discussion by all.
A Sanchez in the pen for 2015: 1) Is cheap. 2) Looks like he can provide Closer or top RH Set Up.

Both my points are accurate, I believe. The problem is there are legitimate objections or negatives to this role. What are they? Please. Remember that it worked for J Key.

My objection is that his arm cannot be built up for his future role as a 200 IP SP. Hopefully a very good one.

Presently we have Jose Reyes (SS), Josh Donaldson (3B), Jose Bautista (RF), Russell Martin (C) and Edwin Encarnacion (DH) as Significant Pieces. We have gaps at 1B; 2B; LF; CF; Backup C; 4th OF; Mid-Inf: Inf/OF.

Presently we have 11 players: Justin Smoak; John Mayberry Jr.; Steve Tolleson; Ryan Goins; Maicer Izturis; Danny Valencia; Andy Dirks; Dalton Pompey; Kevin Pillar; Josh Thole and Dioner Navvarro, to fill 8 positions. I think we can do better, but will A.A. think so?

R.R. Dickey; Mark Buehrle; Marcus Stroman; Drew Hutchison and J.A. Happ form our Rotation. With Russell Martin catching, they will be better, perhaps very much so. I just think we can do better, but will A.A. think so?

Aaron Sanchez will be a Starter (with inning limitations), perhaps a very good one who starts in the Bullpen. Marco Estrada is a Reliever who can Start. Where do they fit? Only Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup are the others for the Bullpen, leaving three positions to be filled. While Steve Delabar, Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins filled those spots last year, they may not be good enough any more. There are still lots of decisions to be made going forward.

I don't think we have to worry about the money going forward. I think we have to worry that A.A. might not have enough time to do everything he must.

In my view, Navarro isn't really an adequate full-time DH. He has a career wRC+ of 86 and he's a poor baserunner (i.e., slow). I think he would be a fine backup C and occasional DH and pinch-hitter.

I think the goal should be having EE as the primary DH and a competent first baseman like Loney (as an example) at 1B. That's in a perfect world; in the real world, AA might not be able to do better than Smoak. We'll see.

As for what it would take to land certain players, I'm fairly certain that had anyone suggested Lawrie/Graveman/Nolin/Barreto for Donaldson last week, he or she would have been mocked by the usual "realists" and superior minds. It's not always clear how potential trading partners value a team's minor-league assets. Look at Dombrowski and Robbie Ray.

Melky's now the best bat left on the Free Agent Market (MLB Trade Rumors - Cruz signing). Any chance of him returning has just vanished.

Blue Jays not signing Melky will have nothing to do with him being the best free agent bat left. There is a lot to gain by not signing him and obtaining other equal or better upgrades at a lower price.

Blue Jays not signing Melky will have nothing to do with him being the best free agent bat left. There is a lot to gain by not signing him and obtaining other equal or better upgrades at a lower price.

These are very important considerations. In addition, the team is no doubt taking into account what the rest of the league is going to do and whether there are any competitive offers.

There seems to be a segment of the Blue Jay fan base that is desperate to re-sign Cabrera, or 'Melky' as they affectionately call him, at any price. It's hard to find a logical basis for this desire and it's certainly not representative of other major league teams. In fact, Toronto signed Cabrera for 2/16 precisely because no other team could hold their nose tightly enough to sign the guy. Not only had he been caught using PED's, but he and his management team constructed a ridiculous lie that might have made even the greatest cheat-and-lie guys blush. My own view, and that of some players, was that he and his rep team should have been drummed out of the majors for his fraud.

Cabrera apparently turned down a 5/75 deal with the Giants before he got caught cheating. I suspect he wants to see if he can get that back. The front office, wisely, would much rather take the pick than pay him anywhere near that. They don't know if he will get caught again. They no doubt have suspicions about his 2014 'comeback'. as does any reasonable person.

Some of the Blue Jay fan base may think Cabrera is lined up for a 4 or 5 year deal. i think it is much more likely that he is scampering in March to get back near the QO level on a 1 year deal than it is he gets more than 3 years. If the team gets a pick from the 'Melky' Cabrera era, then it should count itself fortunate and move on.

AA on Prime Time Sports this evening confirmed that he is not trading any of the 2014 starting pitchers, and that right now Aaron Sanchez is pencilled in for the bullpen, although he will be stretched out as a starter. He suggested that Norris will start at AAA, and that Castro could be in the major league bullpen later this year because of his superior fastball and Fernando Rodney-like changeup. He is still looking to trade Navarro, but would not confirm any other trade possibilities. He confirmed that the 5 year max contract is still in place, so all of you dreaming of Lester can stop.  Re the Callaspo situation, AA re-affirmed his  oft-stated  position that he likes to keep his real work quiet and that if you hear rumours there is probably nothing to them. Re Melky Cabrera's current value, when asked about the Cruz signing all that Anthopolous would say is that power (ie Cruz) is valued more highly by most teams. Sounds like Melky's value may not be as great as Melky and his agent believe.

AA on Prime Time Sports this evening confirmed that he is not trading any of the 2014 starting pitchers, and that right now Aaron Sanchez is pencilled in for the bullpen, although he will be stretched out as a starter

Good.  Sanchez pitching 2-3 high leverage innings at a time works for me. 

Good. Sanchez pitching 2-3 high leverage innings at a time works for me.

Did I miss us getting a new manager? Gibbons seldom pitches anyone for 2-3 innings in a high leverage situation. He's guided instead by 1. r/l splits, and; 2. making sure everyone is available every night to cycle through the bullpen. if Gibbons had Sparky Lyle he'd turn him into a loogy.

There is a very interesting article in Fangraphs today about Donaldson's throwing errors complete with GIFs. Some of the people doing handsprings about Donaldson might want to read the article and watch the throwing GIFs before you put a crown on his head.

rotorose, I wouldn't take anything AA says on PTS seriously. He's not exactly going to publicly tell the other players what he's holding. What's said on that show by guys like him amounts to politics.

AA's last comment on PTS was that there could be a couple of deals before tomorrow night's non tender deadline....no guarantees but has several balls in the air and working towards getting something done.

AA has been rumoured, in the past, about interest in Gordon Beckham. Beckham will be the 2B this season once he is non-tendered.

AA certainly was effusive in his praise of this Castro kid. I didn't know he can dial it up to 100. Sounded like we'll see him this year.

It has just been reported by Jeff Todd on MLBTR than Markakis is unlikely to sign back with Orioles and that Giants and Jays are seen as most likely alternatives.

Is Joel Hanrahan a valid rule 5 target? Bluebird Banter thinks so.

some of the people doing handsprings about Donaldson might want to read the article and watch the throwing GIFs before you put a crown on his head.

many of us did read the article, including the conclusion, which states:

"he’s still tied with Beltre atop the WAR leaderboard at third base. Josh Donaldson doesn’t need his defense to be an great player. He’d have been a +5 WAR player the last two years without it. But the defense is what puts him in an elite class above his peers, and the defense comes with a blemish"

Donaldson has the second highest WAR for position players over the last 2 seasons. 

Did I miss us getting a new manager? Gibbons seldom pitches anyone for 2-3 innings in a high leverage situation.

Sanchez pitched 2 or more innings 7 times out of his 24 appearances.  5 more times he pitched more than one inning.  As a comparison, the best reliever in the game, Craig Kimbrel, pitched a maximum of 1 and a third innings, and he did that 5 times all season. 

I've been saying for months now that Sanchez may end up as an ace reliever.  Future value be damned, we'd like to win next year.  If that means Sanchez as relief ace, so be it. 

There seems to be a segment of the Blue Jay fan base that is desperate to re-sign Cabrera, or 'Melky' as they affectionately call him, at any price.

That certainly is over-the-top, calling a player by his first name. What's next, calling a guy by his initials?

They no doubt have suspicions about his 2014 'comeback'. as does any reasonable person.

Right. I'm also pretty sure he faked the tumour on his spine in 2013.

Put me in the camp that says we should have Sanchize in the bullpen. He's elite there, we have a need, and we are in win-now mode. Lots of pitchers have made the switch to starting after being an ace reliever- Chris Sale and Kelvim Escobar come to mind.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-may-not-have-the-payroll-to-sign-melky-cabrera/

...and there's the bucket of cold water.  Although I'm not going to be that fussed if we don't end up with Melky, if we end up with no additional upgrade at 2B, LF or 1B/DH...I think that's going to be a critical issue.

How would people feel about a Beurhle for Kemp deal?

Kemp has five years left, at approximately $107.5m (would probably require a little bit of cash coming back).

No one is saying that Donaldson is not a valuable player and those who are sold on trade are sold on the trade. But Donaldson makes many errors and many of those errors are throwing errors. He is going to win a lot of games with his bat and with his glove but sooner or later one of those errors is going to come at a critical time and is going to cost a game or two. Combine Donaldson's throwing errors with Reyes's many errors and maybe some of those runs Martin is going to save are going to get fumbled and thrown away.

Anyone else think AA is pumping up Castro for the purpose of being part of a package?

Reyes wasn't probably going anywhere any way you slice it, so those errors are happening either way.

Donaldson's defensive "value" or lack thereof is certainly part of the package.  But most projection systems suggest that Donaldson will earn more value with both the glove and the bat compared to Lawrie, even factoring in those errors.  If Donaldson can improve on that arm even a bit, should be even better.

Certainly you can make an argument that if Lawrie develops the Jays could regret this in 2016 or 2017.  But that's a big if, and premised both on Lawrie improving at the plate, learning how to stay healthy, and Donaldson declining.  Unless all 3 of those things happen, hard to see how this deal results in a big "loss" for the Jays, even if it ultimately may not be viewed as the massive "win" it is being made out to be now.

AA mentioned Castro as part of a general question posed to him on pitching depth after the trade but with the caveat that he needs to improve his slider. He also mentioned Osuna probably starting in AA New Hampshire and Hoffman back on the mound in May. Some of us were concerned about who would play SS in Lansing this year. Baretto or Urena? But AA said that Baretto had been scheduled to start in Dunedin this coming year at the age of 19 and that he might have moved as quickly as Pompey did last season.

This thread is convincing me that maybe Melky shouldn't be our first prioroty but that a good defensive 1st baseman may be a greater need given the throws coming from the other side of the infield.  James Loney perhaps.

I think AA handles the media quite well. I like that. All sports media & team officials have to talk, speculate, etc... the public demands it.

Rumors are a part of this, it creates excitement and the public has a short memory.

Practically everyone did not expect Donaldson to be traded, I believe. When it happened, many were surprised.

I liked what AA had to say about the Gose and Donaldson deals. He said that he liked all the players, coming and going, which is a good safe thing to say. I was surprised when he criticized the bullpen. I can see a lot of changes there, but still why say anything that specific.

As a Jay's fan I do wonder what the goals are. For example are we trying to win? Some may strongly believe that the level of the payroll is an indicator. That is fine. I for one, do not like players making the team based on options or lack of. ST means nothing to me. But actual previous years results carry more weight. So when the best/most deserving players do not make the team at the start of the real season, then your team is not as good as it could/should be.

Yonder Alonso may or may not be tendered today.  Former top prospect, stuck in Petco.  Swings left.  1B defence seems something to be desired, but has some OF experience too, so could cover that in a pinch.

Not sure he's that much better than what we presently have, but he kinda fits the profile, and presumably will be cheap.

Ideally the team should be set pre-spring with spring being more about getting the regulars ready and seeing where the kids in the minors are at along with any minor league signings so you know who to call up when injuries occur.  I hate spring battles for a job as it normally means neither player is really ready for the job.

Right now CF/LF/2B/1B are the debates (assuming EE is the DH).  2B has a guy but he might need more AAA time with the backups being Izturis, Goins, and Tolleson with Kawasaki being a maybe if the Jays commit a ML contract to him.  CF has Pillar & Pompey, neither proven and Pillar the most ready most likely.  LF and 1B are a mish-mosh of guys who should, at best, be in a platoon.  No way I see AA being happy going into spring like this.  CF & 2B are potentially OK but ideally you'd have a vet backup for CF (ala Rajai Davis) in case the kids aren't ready so you can get above 0 WAR until they are.

Checking for high end defense at 1B the highest projection for defense at 1B is Stephen Vogt at +5.9 but he also plays RF and CA for the A's and is pre-arbitration so I doubt he is available.  Next is a big drop to Brayan Pena at 0.9 but again is also a catcher and doesn't hit well (weird that the 2 biggest defensive scores at 1B go to catchers).   You don't want to go extreme and get a all-field no hit at 1B (ala Overbay at this point) so who is best and potentially available?  This is probably AA's big target, a 1B who can field at a high level and hit half decently.

Daric Barton, perhaps?  Ticks all those boxes and LHB to boot.  Gotta think he's out of room in Oakland.  Change of scenery, good defensively, gets on base, would benefit from move to Toronto?

Cannot imagine he would cost anything (and if AA had any interest, getting him thrown into the Donaldson deal would presumably have been easy).

Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin would be with Daniel Norris in AAA Buffalo as our #7-9/#8-10 Starters. They would be an important part of the AAA Team. Graveman and Nolin will probably start for Oakland this coming season, while Daniel Norris will start for Buffalo. If Norris is our #7/#8 Starter (depending on what Estrada is), who's next - #8/#9? Not everyone can do, they need to be able to pitch up here. Secondly, who is the Starting staff in Buffalo this coming season? That might be more important than we know.

Who are the top 3 Shortstop in our system? Who supposedly takes over for Jose Reyes? We have pitching coming out of every corner of the system from the DSL on. We have adequate outfield prospects with good potential and decent catching prospects with good potential. But we presently have not much else, other than an individual or two, in any other position, so who's the future in the system? Who's the best at each position and how far away are they? Top Prospect Lists are fine until the offseason, then everything changes and people need to know.

In terms of SS's, Urena and Lugo are the future. Both can handle the position with the glove, have good speed and can hit. They are banking on those 2 kids. Of course, they could draft someone but more realistic outcome is trading their pitching for a SS. The Cubs make a good partner in the future. My prediction, Stalin Castro will be our SS of the future.

One thing I haven't seen, is what does the Martin signing mean for Pentecost, who we selected in the first round with the intention of moving through the system quickly? He is now blocked for more than a few years....

If Yonder Alonso is available, i would take him. His defense at first is ok (much better than Edwin's), and he is a decent enough LH hitter. An Alonso / Valencia platoon at 1B would provide solid production, and also would be really cheap.

If Nolin and Graveman are starting for a team like Oakland this year, while they wouldn't have cracked our rotation, then why is anyone worried about our SP situation?

ah Yonder Alonso, another one of the great 1B draft class of 2008.

I.Davis (27): 2138pa, 111wrc+, -33.7def, +5.8war
Y.Alonso (27): 1409pa, 105wrc+, -17.9df, +3.2war
E.Hosmer (25): 2388pa, 104wrc+, -65.2df, +2.4war
J.Smoak (27): 2218pa, 94wrc+, -41.5df, -0.2war
D.Cooper (27): 226pa, 101wrc+, -7.1df, -0.1war
B.Wallace (27): 1077pa, 93wrc+, -28.7df, -1.0war
A.Dykstra (27): ----

looks like we're slowly working our way up the list.

Alonso is one of the less sucky ones, and wouldn't be the worst pickup in the world.

Graveman and Nolin would have been my #6 and #7 starters for the year  (I would have actually preferred Graveman in the 5 slot to Happ).  The odds are very high that your #6 and #7 starters will get significant work in a year.  Anyways, the deal is done and all this is left is the passage of 15 years to see how it works out!

One thing I haven't seen, is what does the Martin signing mean for Pentecost, who we selected in the first round with the intention of moving through the system quickly? He is now blocked for more than a few years....

Pentecost has played a total of 25 professional games split between Rookie-Advanced and Short-A. He still has a long climb to the majors.

My gut is the Jays have $150 for this year, meaning another $15 mil is available (roughly).  Happ is $6.7 and Navarro $5 so that could add $11.7 mil without too much effort (no need to eat salary with either player I'd expect) thus $26.7 could be available for AA to spend.

Needs: closer (or solid reliever to mix in with current crew), 1B (solid fielder so EE can DH), LF

Nice to have: vet for 2B for 1 year, solid proven backup SS, solid proven backup CF, proven ace for rotation

Right now there are a couple of closer types available as free agents that would eat up a big chunk of that $15 mil.  1B/LF could be covered in house (Mayberry, Smoak, Dirks, Valencia) but wouldn't be ideal. 

So given all that watch AA go get a star CF or something just to mess with us all :)

The Luxury Tax Line is somewhere above $180-ish MM, which is what I consider A.A.'s max limit. Of course, he's not going to announce that, confuses Free Agent signings to no end. I think the 'area' they are trying to stay in is the $145. MM - $150. MM range. I doubt he's going to announce that. I'm pretty sure he can get approval for any signing, over and above what is planned, increasing his limit.

A.A. will stretch and exceed limitations for anyone he deems worthy. I know he has ideas about everyone's value and term, and will seldom exceed those numbers, unless something special is available.

So what do we know? He wants to upgrade wherever it's possible, in the time available, if it's practical. First Base really needs a upgrade, but Encarnacion and Smoak might have that covered. Two or three Bullpen acquisitions and one outfield position filled, Left or Center, are the major needs.

It's simple, if you hit well but don't defend well, you are likely to be replaced by someone who does both well. If you defend well but don't hit well, you are also likely to be replaced by someone who does both well. If you hit well and defend well you could be replaced by someone better. Only Bautista, Martin, Encarnacion and Donaldson are exempt.

It's doubtful A.A.'s satisfied with the Team even by August 31st. It's just who is available that meets his price.

Graveman and Nolin would have been my #6 and #7 starters for the year  (I would have actually preferred Graveman in the 5 slot to Happ).

Given his track record of decent success, and his salary, Estrada has to be number 6 no?

Actually what I would do with the Blue Jays bullpen is something a little different.  Cecil would be the 9th inning guy.  He's a lot better starting off innings anyway and I would have enough confidence in him against both RHBs and LHBs. Sanchez gets high leverage 2-3 inning work.  Estrada gets 1-3 innings work of somewhat lower leverage or when Sanchez is unavailable.  Loup gets medium leverage/lefty intensive work.  I'd like to get 80-90 innings out of both Sanchez and Estrada and 50-60 from Cecil and Loup. 

I don't think that Gibbons would do that, and it doesn't look like the club is about to change managers. 

I don't know how I missed this, but congratulations Dale Scott. 

MIke Green, I'm really not understanding your dissent on the Donaldson trade.  Just a couple weeks ago, in the Russell Martin thread, you told us that you'd be "satisfied" with a lineup that featured Lawrie, Travis, Smoak/Valencia etc.   You praised this lineup for having "a nice balance of talent -- ability to reach base, hit for power, speed and good defence -- and a balance of experience and youth."   Now the Jays have taken that same lineup, deleted Lawrie and added Donaldson.  Surely you have to be more than satisfied now?  Surely it has become a stronger lineup than the one that you praised on Nov. 18th? 

I'm almost getting the feeling that you're being deliberately contrarian. First you join the tiny percentage (8 per cent) of Batters Box voters who disapprove of the Donaldson trade.  Then you suggest that Kendall Graveman (with only 49 innings of experience above A-ball) should have been put into the Jays starting rotation ahead of J. A. Happ (who has 840 innings of major-league experience, plus an xFIP of 3.95 last season).  Do you really think Anthopoulos should have vetoed the Donaldson trade in order to preserve some marginal depth pitchers (Graveman and Nolin) who were rendered completely unnecessary in 2015 because of the presence of Sanchez, Norris and Estrada?  

Huh.  Wonder what the reaction will be around MLB and on the newsblogs.  It shouldn't be a big deal of course, who cares who he dates/marries as long as it isn't his boss or a player.  Hopefully a player will come out one of these days as it is a safe bet there are dozens in MLB but just too nervous about how people would react still.  Has a player/referee/linesman come out in hockey yet?  I don't think so.  Basketball has one player as does football (sort of...I don't think he has played a game yet but was drafted).  Still waiting for that 'Jackie Robinson' type - a player who would be high profile/high calibre rather than marginal like the NBA & NFL have had. 

CF, I have said many times that I do not share the enthusiasm for the 2015 possibilities (in the rotation) for Norris and Sanchez.  I have always thought that Sanchez would be better in the relief role (and have said so here many times going back 2 or 3 years).  I think that Norris might end up as a great pitcher, but I think that he's at least a year off.  If the Jays have an injury in the rotation and need to put someone in there at the start of 2015, I would have been a lot happier with either Graveman or Nolin than Norris. 

Estrada wouldn't be a bad choice in those circumstances, but the club is short of high leverage relief without him.  I also think that he is better suited to it. 

It's a combination of things.  I am higher on Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto than most.  I think that Donaldson is the best player in the trade, but that it is likely that he will be on a slow downward path given the typical career path of players who emerge as late as he did. 

"....the club is short of high leverage relief without him...."

Difficult to make this comment at such an early stage in the off-season, when Anthopoulos is clearly shopping around for bullpen acquisitions.  To assume that the Jays need Sanchez and Estrada in the bullpen is highly premature.  It's more reasonable to expect that Sanchez and Estrada will both be available for the rotation if there's an injury at the start of 2015.  Both of them have far more MLB experience (and MLB success) than Nolin or Graveman, so it takes a great leap of imagination to believe that Nolin and Graveman would be superior starters to Estrada and Sanchez.

For those wondering about the Rogers Stadium turf issues, here's an update from an article on Sportsnet today:

Installation of the new AstroTurf 3D Xtreme, the next generation of their old carpet with redesigned grass fibres, is scheduled to start Jan. 23 and should be completed by early March. While it’s far from ideal, the new rug is slated to serve as a stop-gap until Rogers Centre can be retrofitted for natural grass, a process slated for 2018.

Given that we're now getting close to what is perceived to be the Jays' payroll limit, do we think AA will make another big splash in the FA market? I have to say I'm sceptical about the Melky and Markakis rumours, and suspect that AA might well chose to try and wait out the market to a certain extent. Of course, we might see more trade action on a smaller scale.

I think tonight will tell us a little, who does AA non-tender/keep?

AA has never been good at "waiting out the market" in my opinion. He strikes me as a guy who likes to get stuff done.

That being said, I'm sure he will surprise us with whatever he does. So forget everything I just said.

A.A. doesn't like the Winter Meetings as he gets so little work done (for him) during this time. I suspect he'd like to finalize anything he's got going before then. So basically then, in the next 5 days something may happen. Then those busy Winter meetings happen. Of course massive deals can occur then.

There it is, Gordon Beckham is now a free agent. Do the Jays go get him?

"Estrada wouldn't be a bad choice in those circumstances, but the club is short of high leverage relief without him."

So now we've turned Estrada into a high-leverage reliever in order to make a point about the importance of Nolin & Graveman to team depth? Oh gosh, this one's off the rails.

"For those wondering about the Rogers Stadium turf issues, here's an update from an article on Sportsnet today"

Classic. I could swear I've read a version of this article for each of the last 5 off seasons. "While we aren't ready yet to install natural grass, we've updated what we have to be as state-of-the-art as possible to ease the effect our awful turf can have on the players' bodies."

"That certainly is over-the-top, calling a player by his first name. What's next, calling a guy by his initials?"

Indeed. All you "internet kiddies" that think you are buddy-buddy with Mr. Cabrera and can refer to him by his first name - how dare you?!

I see on Rotoworld that the Jays are said to be interested in Dexter Fowler. I think he was mentioned here recently. Vast majority of his career in Colorado, so you have to be careful about his stats. His career road OPS is only .700. Not a good percentage base stealer. His defensive stats look weak. I'd rather stick with Pompey and/or Pillar in the outfield.

Beachy and Medlen were both non-tendered by the Braves. Two starters who have been excellent when healthy, but are coming off their 2nd TJ surgeries.

Ogando non-tendered by the Rangers. Was bad last year, but in only 25 IP. Had a career ERA of 3.12 prior to that, despite playing in a hitters' haven.

Seems like there may be an abnormal amount of intriguing players to shop from out of the non-tenders. I'd be interested (to varying degrees) in Ogando, Medlen, Beckham, Young Jr, Blanks, Ondrusek, and Everth Cabrera.

Mayberry Jr., Smoak, and Dirks non-tendered. Looks like we have some more moves coming.

That's 5 spaces free on the 40-man Roster. Those moves coming must be a blockbuster trade or multiple signings.

With Melky probably leaving as a FA, we have a need for a Cabrera who has been suspended for PEDs.

Everth, you're up.

In all seriousness, though, I would be quite happy to see us add Everth Cabrera for next season. He could compete with Izturis for starts at 2B, while also giving us a guy who can take over at SS if Reyes misses games.

It's interesting, but those non-tenders might just be making enough to pay Martin's salary.

I'm happy to see the Jays not being shy about cleaning out the back end of the roster. I am slightly puzzled about keeping Valencia over Mayberry tho. Both are severely limited in that they are helpless against right-handed pitching and not known for great defense. But while Valencia lines up behind 2 all-stars in Donaldson and Encarnacion, Mayberry was potentially the 4th outfielder behind 2 rookies.

I'd say that right now, Valencia is the 1B vs lefties, with Edwin DH. Against righties, it would be Navarro DH and Edwin at 1B. Plus, Valencia would be the primary backup at 3B. Valencia has a slightly better career OPS vs lefties, including about 40 more points in the OBP department, compared to Mayberry. I didn't think they would tender Mayberry, and I think it's good they didn't tender Smoak. Some interesting non-tenders by other teams for them to look at.

The non-tendering of Mayberry/Dirks/Smoak is good news.  The Jays can do better than those three.  Most analysts are estimating that the Jays still have $18-million to $20-million in payroll room to play with -- and more than that if they trade Navarro and/or Happ -- so it should definitely be possible for them to dip into the free-agent market (Melky or someone else) to fill LF and perhaps 1B/DH too.  I assume that Anthopoulos has had a comprehensive exploration of the trade market and the free-agent market by this point, and he's now quite confident that he can acquire the players that he needs.  No need to settle for fringe platoon players whose hitting numbers have to be cherry-picked (or squinted at) to make them look adequate.  After paying so much (in dollars and talent) for Martin and Donaldson, the Jays are clearly going for it, so why would AA settle for fringe platoon players in the outfield and 1B?  If he decides that he needs the non-tendered players as bench pieces later, there's still a chance that he can bring them back on reduced salaries at that point.

The Jays now have only three outfielders on the 40-man roster:  Bautista, Pompey and Pillar.  And they don't really have any MLB-ready outfielders in the farm system either.  So this guarantees that they're going to acquire one or two outfielders from outside the system -- outfielders who are better than Mayberry and Dirks -- and that can only be good news.  Anthopoulos wouldn't have reduced his outfield depth to just three players unless he was quite certain that he could acquire good upgrades in the free-agent or trade markets.  I'm looking forward to the news.

The only odd thing is AA's decision to pay $150,000 to Smoak to buy out his contract. That looks like wasted money now.  One possible explanation: AA was worried about a lack of 1B/DH options a few weeks ago, so he needed to have Smoak around for depth, but the recent evolution of the free agent and trade markets has left him more confident of finding a better option for that role.  I hope that's the case.

One more point about the outfield decisions:  Good roster management would probably require the Jays to have 4 outfielders, not 5.  If they use Pompey and Pillar as the CF tandem, they've already got their back-up outfielder (whichever of Pillar or Pompey is not playing that night).  The 4th outfielder has to be able to play CF, so that means Pompey or Pillar.  The Jays are very unlikely to acquire a CF from outside the system when Pompey is so close to being ready for a full-time role, if he's not ready now.  So the Jays probably have just one outfield hole at this point: they need a good-hitting LF who can make contact and take walks and get on base for the power hitters.  Mayberry and Dirks are not that guy, since they'd need to be platooned.  The obvious answer: invest in a solid LF such as Melky, Markakis, Fowler or Aoki.  Then you're done in the OF (except for the depth pieces that can be stashed in Buffalo) and you can concentrate on the bullpen and 1B/DH. 

So after all the non-tenders the Jays estimated payroll is now $131.0 million.  5th in the AL, 9th in the majors.  2 teams are in the 120's, 3 in the 140's, the Jays are it in the 130's.  So given the $150 many are starting to guess the Jays have available that leaves $19 million open plus easily traded guys like Happ & Navarro $11.7 combined shifting that to $30.7 million.  So lots of room to work with still.

The only non-tender that really surprises me is Dirks.  He seemed like the best LF option versus RHP we had at this point, and could be platooned with Pillar (who is the ideal 4th OF since he can cover CF).  I hope that means that a permanent LF solution is en route.

Put me down for hesitant on giving up anything of major value for Fowler. 

It does appear, from the between the lines of AA and all the scuttlebutt, that 2B is not a priority for the Jays this offseason. They must really like Travis (which may be a perfectly justifiable position).  I've warmed up to Izturis starting the year at 2B and as soon as Travis proves he's ready he gets brought up (which could even be for Opening Day).

Mike Green - what's wrong with you - Please keep your rational thoughts to yourself - Only homerism exuberance is accepted at this location.

In all seriousness, though, I would be quite happy to see us add Everth Cabrera for next season. He could compete with Izturis for starts at 2B, while also giving us a guy who can take over at SS if Reyes misses games.

He'd be a great buy-low add, assuming the team believes he can rebound, but If the team is trying to rehab the locker room character, this might be impossible - 50 game suspension in the Biogenesis scandal, followed by a DUI charge and a resisting arrest.

Not that this guarantees he's a 'bad character guy', and we've already shown a willingness to forgive PEDs.

So who, other than Beckham and Cabrera, are people interested in from the non-tenders?  Beachy and Medlen from the Braves are obvously great rotation depth options coming of surgery. Alexi Ogando has had periods of dominance in the pen, but again, is another injury risk.  Limiting him to the pen may mitigate that risk.

".....Please keep your rational thoughts to yourself - Only homerism exuberance is accepted at this location..."

In fact, I asked Mike to share his thoughts and explain them further -- not to keep them to himself. Nobody here would tell anyone to keep his thoughts quiet.  This is a location where anything is accepted -- but can be freely debated.

John, where are you getting the $131-million projected payroll?  According to Shi Davidi last night, the Jays now have $121.7-million in 2015 commitments, including salary arbitration projections for Donaldson, Cecil, Estrada and Valencia.  Beyond that, there might be a couple million for pre-arb players.  And beyond that, nobody knows. Some are projecting about $140-milion, a slight increase from 2014, which would allow potentially $18-million to $20-million for new acquisitions.  But I've never seen $131-million as a projection, unless there's a formula that I'm missing.

The Jays kept Dirks, Mayberry and Smoak and presumably tried to sign them to reasonable contracts. That is fine. However that decision now leaves three additional Jays minor leaguers unprotected in the rule 5 draft, that could be the cost of the option on those three players.

In fact, I asked Mike to share his thoughts and explain them further -- not to keep them to himself. Nobody here would tell anyone to keep his thoughts quiet. This is a location where anything is accepted -- but can be freely debated.

Suggesting that a well-respected poster here is being "deliberately contrarian" is borderline ad hominem and not conducive to free debate. It's uncalled for.

Mike Green deserves plenty of respect - I always read your posts Mike - but "contrarian" is a pretty tame ad hominem.  I relish the label myself - just ask my long-suffering friends ...

I'd say ChinaFan disagreed about as politely as possible.  Far, far more strident attacks are launched on posters weekly on this site - including on China - will you police those now too? 

Why are speculations, even assumptions, being made as to Jays budget for 2015. We don't know and they are not going to tell us. Only 2 days ago, AA said directly, with no dancing around, that he would have the money to fill all of the perceived holes, lf, 2b, dh, bullpen.

There is much more to come....only hoping it does not cost much in prospect currency.

I am puzzled by the non-tendering of Dirks.  Perhaps his health is not good as hoped.  If healthy, his left-handed bat would surely have added something to the bench at a minimum. 

As of today, the outfield is Pillar, Pompey, Bautista.  I am fine with those three starting, but they obviously do need another outfielder for the bench at a minimum.  A left-handed bat would be ideal.  And they do need a left-handed hitting first baseman. 

will you police those now too?

I'm not policing anything. There was an implication that CF's earlier comments were perfectly fine, and I was pointing out an instance where they weren't.

If anyone felt that the phrase "deliberately contrarian" was an ad-hominem insult, I certainly withdraw it and apologize.  It wasn't intended that way.

I wonder what kind of value we could extract from LAD for taking Ethier off their hands. Prior to 2014, he showed no real production decline and had always hit RHP really well. he might be a good candidate to rebound in a platoon roll and would fit well with our 4th outfielder / DH / bench need.

That said, he's due $56m over three years, so LAD has to really stump up the cash (50%) and/or prospects coming with him.

I was thinking about Ethier too, but I imagine the Dodgers are probably looking to move Kemp and do a Ethier/Heisey platoon at this point, although I suppose it could be a Crawford/Heisey platoon too, so maybe Ethier could be moved.  Scratch that - I'm sure if anyone called up LAD and said they'd take all of Ethier's contract, they could have him.

He can play CF in a pinch too.  Not a bad option, but I imagine with the payroll parameters the Jays deal with they'd need a massive amount of the money covered.

Of the non-tenders, I really like Everth Cabrera as a bounce back candidate - he'd be a nice fit @ 2b and he's a better defensive SS than Reyes, so the Jays can give Reyes lots of rest - However, with so many teams looking for a SS, Cabrera is likely to have many suitors and as someone previously mentioned, the jays FO has previously had a soft spot for Gordon Beckham.

Beachy/Medlen/Ogando are all interesting - but I don't expect Rogers centre to be appealing to them unless their health situation leaves them with fewer choices.

The Jays FO decision to gamble on leaving guys like Stilson/Burns etc. exposed to the rule v draft and keeping those non-tender players certainly leaves them vulnerable to criticism if they lose some prospects to the draft - maybe the jays FO are so focused on 2015 that they are willing to take those chances.

http://www.fangraphs.com/freeagents.aspx?sign=unsigned&pos=B&nteam=all&oteam=all&sort=5,d

Just found this over at Fangraphs and thought it was worth a share.

Thoughts:

1) Jed Lowrie would seem to be a good 2B option (especially since he can cover a Reyes DL stint) provided AA is willing to spend at 2B (I increasingly am of the opinion that he is not, and they are committed to a "stopgap til Travis" solution there).

2) I mentioned Daric Barton earlier before I saw this, and that would seem to be an excellent flier for the Jays, especially now that Mayberry/Smoak are out of the way (LH, good OBP, great defence).  I'm going to keep hammering away at this drum in the hopes that someone in the Jays FO randomly decides to read my comments...

3) If we were looking for a LH bat in the OF, Colby Rasmus looks like an intriguing option...just kidding.  Except not really.  I do wonder if that whole situation was handled improperly last year, although seems to go with the culture change thing.

4) Melky's projections are a bit lower than we'd probably all like, but I think most would still prefer him to come back (and he seems pretty clearly to be the best offensive option out there with the possible exception of Headley, who clearly isn't coming to Toronto at this point). 

5) If it's Aoki or Markakis (I doubt the Jays pay for Markakis if they aren't going to pay for Melky), please, please, please be Aoki.

6) Wow, the FA bats that are available are really not all that good at all.  If not Melky, Aoki or Rasmus (the latter of which is clearly not happening), I'm having a hard time seeing what option is better than Dirks (which I hope suggests that either a) Dirks wasn't healthy, so they didn't have a choice, b) Melky or Aoki is on their way to TO, or c) AA has a nice trade coming.;

Matt Kemp is the Dodger A.A. should acquire. He's about two years younger (age 30 - 2015 season) than Ethier (age 33 - 2015 season) and a much, much, much better player. He's under contract through 2019 (age 34 - 2019 season) at about $2.0 MM - $2.5 MM more than Ethier. That's insignificant money when you're spending that much (Jose Reyes makes more).

The non-tendering of Dirks/Mayberry leaves me to believe that the Jays are confident of acquiring an everyday outfielder via trade/FA - if it's Dexter Fowler, given his defence, weakness from the leftside and likely salary, I will not be excited.

I'm not worrying about how much A.A. is going to spend or how many people get traded. I'm only going to worry when A.A. stops doing things. Now about the other things:

Outfield:
A.A. will be acquiring at least one Outfielder. Right now only Pompey and Pillar can play CF. Anyone else playing there is downright scary. Who plays the outfield in AAA if Pompey and Pillar are up here?

Bullpen:
A.A. is sure taking his time here. I think the discussion with his staff was about getting one Stud Reliever or spreading the money around over two or three. That problem's simple, get two Studs.

Anything Else:
I am very sure A.A. is doing everything he can to acquire a top First Baseman, but other than Joey Votto, who available? I think A.A. is sure Devon Travis is our 2B of the future, so any acquisition there is one year only.

After watching the World Series, you could form an opinion about what you saw. Pitching, Defense and Timely Hitting won many games. Timely hitting should always be known by its true name: poor offense. After all, our 2013 Team won a lot of early games with timely hitting, with an offense that wasn't good enough.

At this point, I'm going to stop speculating on what AA will do next. Before the Martin and Donaldson moves, I was more or less convinced that Rogers wasn't going to allow any spending this off-season, especially considering that the Canadian dollar has been falling lately. Now, I have no idea what will happen next.

But I can understand the decision to non-tender Mayberry, Smoak, and Dirks, even if there's nobody in the organization to replace them - replacement-level 1B and LF types are easy to find, and there's no point in spending money on one when you can find another.

I think AA may have just looked at all the other non-tenders and decided that there was enough talent out there that he didn't need to hoard the likes of Mayberry Jr. That might also explain why we were one of the last teams to announce our non-tenders.

Whoops.  Proper link here.

The $131 projection was from Baseball Reference - they have projected payrolls for all teams on their front page.  It is easy to check so I use it a lot.

Big questions are what to do if an injury happens now.  Mayberry and the rest had the ability to cover a few slots at a 'meh' level.  Maybe AA figures he can sign a few AAA guys or something.  I don't see any real prospects outside of Pillar/Pompey who are close to the majors...maybe Dwight Smith Jr if you squint (A+ 816 OPS at age 21 so could climb quick) but that is stretching it.  1B has been a dead zone lately.  Guess a batch of decent AAAA guys is what AA will sign now to fill the depth while doing a trade to get a good hitter/decent fielder for LF and 1B.  That is all I can figure.

When I evaluate players, I expect consistency. That does not happen. So with the expectation of inconsistency, how do you make an evaluation? I mean an evaluation on their future performance. Maybe computers can do it.

EE put up good numbers for many years. As a third baseman he cost his team due to errors. Removed from 3B his production became fantastic. So why keep him at 3B? If during the year, the options are him and nobody else, then he stays at 3B.

Bautista had 16,15 & 15 HR with Pittsburgh before coming to the Jays. His massive increase in production was inconsistent with his past. When it continued, it became consistent.

Travis Snider: I use him as an example. He was on the bench with Pittsburgh, then became a regular in August. He has some nice numbers, BA, hits & walks. So maybe he could breakout. A McCutchen is their top OF, so Snider is on the bench or a regular. If he can stay healthy, and produce like he did in Aug & Sept, then he would be a good OF. If he can develop more power then he could be very good. Of course he may never develop.

There could be other examples.

Jays sign Ezequiel Carrera to minor league deal, invite to ST

".....Guess a batch of decent AAAA guys is what AA will sign now to fill the depth...."

That's exactly what Anthopoulos did today, signing CF Ezequiel Carrera to a minor-league contract.  He's a speedy 27-year-old CF with poor hitting numbers in the majors but good numbers at the AAA level last year.  I guess he's the new Mastroianni -- a minor-league CF speedster who can be the 4th outfielder when the Jays have an injury or when they need a good pinch-runner and late-inning defensive replacement.

Mastroianni, by the way, signed with the Phillies in October, so he's gone and the Jays needed a replacement -- a role which Carrera now seems to fill. Carrera has a career OPS of .645 in the majors, which is unimpressive but is significantly better than Mastroianni's career major-league OPS of .564.  Carrera has 273 stolen bases in his minor league career, and another 25 stolen bases in the majors.

Someone got to play at AAA. Gose, Pillar and Pompey were there last year. Now unless A.A. does something about Outfielders for the Big Club, Buffalo is short three Outfielders.

On the 40-man:


CF Pompey
RF Bautista
LF Pillar
3B Donaldson
SS Reyes
2B Izturis
1B Encarnacion
C Martin
DH Navarro

UT Valencia
OF
IF Goins
C Thole

UT Hague
OF
IF Tolleson
C Jimenez



AA has to feel really, really good about an incoming OF to just dump Dirks and Mayberry.

there was that rumour that melky had until the winter meetings to ink a deal with the jays, or else they'd move on...it feels like a shoe is going to drop in the next few days.

Carrera should do a fine job as the CF in Buffalo. Can't lose sight of the AAA team - we don't want to end up losing that affiliation and end up with Las Vegas or some such thing again. Buffalo could still use a few more position players.

we just re-signed Smoak for $1m.

I'll take him at that price.

Yes, that's good. Would be nice if they resign Dirks, too, unless there's a further injury concern we don't know about.

I don't know it any incentive are included, but this is a 'show-me' contract. Show me you can hit here and you can earn a long term deal.

Wesley Wright was non-tendered by the Cubs.  He'd make a decent third left-hander for the pen. 

Well, the Smoak contract does at least explain the oddity of why the Jays were willing to give him a $150,000 buyout payment. So the true cost of signing him for next season is $1.15-million if the buyout is included.  It's a reasonable price for a player who is, at best, a bounce-back candidate and platoon role player.  If he continues to perform at his pathetic 2014 rate, he can easily be dumped. If he regains his 2013 form (an OPS of .839 against RHP), he can be platooned with Valencia at 1B, improving the 1B defence and allowing Encarnacion to concentrate purely on hitting. But I would hope that the Jays are still looking for other DH/1B candidates, because there is certainly no guarantee that Smoak will replicate his 2013 performance against RHP.

Wright's last 4 seasons: ERA 3.25, WHIP 1.28, 8.5 K per 9, 3.2 BB per 9. Looks good.

I like Wright as well

It's kind of weird to choose to complement a core of Bautista/EE/Martin/Donaldson/Reyes with Justin Smoak at first base (traditionally a position where you want a strong offensive player or at least a competent one with good defensive skills). Maybe he'll rebound and be a useful player, but it would be nice if the team were adding strength to strength instead of already having to be so defensive with its remaining acquisitions. Of course, the off-season isn't over yet.

I must also concede that Smoak has consistently hit much better away from Safeco field, and his hitting style seems well-suited to Rogers Centre.  So there's at least a chance that he could turn into a decent hitter in 2015 if he hits strictly against RHP.  Here's an analysis, for example, that projects him to post a 110 wRC+ next season if he hits purely against RHP and if he benefits from the Rogers Centre effect:  http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2014/12/1/7184561/what-of-justin-smoak

But if he fails to show this kind of improved performance in the first few weeks of 2015, his salary isn't high enough to deter the Jays from dumping him.

Apparently, Jays have traded Happ for Michael Saunders. Per Jayson Stark.

I was going through Smoak's stats trying to talk myself into feeling good about this situation and as CF alluded to the best I could find was his career spits on the road. He actually hits LHP better on the road though, .322/.433 for a .330 wOBA and a wRC+ of 111. Versus RHP he's .312/.394 for a .314 wOBA and a wRC+ of 99. So ya, haven't quite talked myself into this transaction. Maybe the Jays think they can tinker with his swing a little and get a lot more production out of him.

So the Jays have restored the one-third Canadian content in their lineup that they lost when Lawrie departed.

Saunders would seem to replace Cabrera in the lineup.  A bit of a downgrade, offensively.  But it saves a huge amount of money.

Saunders is a nice acquisition, in exchange for a relatively expendable piece.  But if it signals the end of the Jays free-agent ambitions and the return of payroll parameters, it's a worrisome development.  The deal saves another $3.8-million (assuming that Saunders gets a projected $2.9-million in arbitration, versus the $6.7-million owed to Happ in 2015).  But it leaves the rotation rather thin, and it means that either Estrada or Sanchez will have to move into the rotation.  (Unless the Jays are seriously chasing Lester or another elite pitcher, which now seems less likely, although not impossible.)  Mike Green will not be happy at the further loss of pitching depth!

With Haap gone who becomes the #5 starter? Sanchez? I wonder if they have something brewing with Miller or possibly another trade candidate. Anyone have defensive metrics/comments on Saunders?

I wonder if they had targeted Markakis and made this move when they realized he would sign with Atlanta as just reported by Jeff Passan.

Jeff Sullivan, Fangraphs author and noted Mariners fan puts the trade thusly..."on the downside Saunders is better than Happ, but on the upside, Saunders is cheaper and under control longer than Happ."

Count me a fan of the move. I can't wait to see what starting pitcher Anthopoulos pulls out of his hat now. And to think that Markakis just got 4 years from the Braves.

Fun FG's article on him. I like the move, although count me in as worried we're just about done and there isn't a whole lot more money left.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/michael-saunders-is-a-box-of-chocolates/

there is mo evidence that there will be no further FA signing. Pitchers are likely to be signed going forward.

For what it's worth, Steamer projects Saunders to post a wRC+ of 110 next season, and a WAR of 2.4.

Steamer projects Cabrera to post a wRC+ of 116 next season, and a WAR of 1.7.

So by acquiring Saunders to replace Cabrera, the Jays are losing a little bit of offensive production, but gaining a lot of defence and overall value.

ok pickup, but i'm happy not to be paying happ $7m to be a typical #5 sp.

platooning with pillar in left should give us a solid lf situation both ways, though if pompey isn't ready we get a little thin in the of.

now the question is whether AA is gonna rush Sanchez into the rotation, or whether we're bringing in someone big.

looking closer at his splits, and how his time in CF hurt his defensive stats, maybe i upgrade this pickup from ok to good, actually.

As someone who sees many Mariners games I am a big fan of this trade.  Saunders' big problem has been staying healthy so he does come with this question mark.  Having said that, he is an effective left-handed bat with some speed.  Funnily enough he reminds me of Rasmus in many ways.  Defensively, I have always thought that he was average to slightly above average as a CF (even though the defensive metrics are mixed on him in CF) with many of the same skills and deficiencies as Rasmus as a defensive CF.  However, as a corner outfielder, if Pompey is in CF, then he should be considerably above average.  Heading into the season with Pompey in CF and a LF platoon with Saunders ready to cover CF if Pompey isn't ready or injured seems like a sensible plan to me.  A thumbs up on this, although I now wonder about moving the pitching depth in the Donaldson trade.  Pitching depth has become a priority now.

"Steamer projects Cabrera to post a wRC+ of 116 next season, and a WAR of 1.7."

well, remember, the projection systems are blind to cabrera's tumor, and just see 2013 as a bad healthy season.

In a pitchers park, Happ will be better. Is that park better for both GB & FB?
Our OF depth just got better.

But... on a more serious note. I have to drink to Mylegacy. Actually WITH Mylegacy. I have a beer my friend.
If all those prospects develop fast our OF & pitching will be deep enough.

Ah!! Better cover all the bases. Here is to AA. CHEERS !!
You do what you are good at...talk. I will drink.

It is the catching... But I will not worry. My fellow Bauxites will figure out if catching is a concern.

Shi Dividi answered my question. He figures the rotation sets up as: Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez with Estrada, Norris, Redmond, Hendriks and Francis as depth.

As we all know, speculating what AA is doing is practically pointless. A lot of the moves he has made this year do point to money being tight, but they all do make "baseball sense" as AA likes to say.

The 1B, LF, 5th starter situation essentially looks like a trade of Melky, Lind, & Happ for Saunders, Smoak, Estrada, & a briefcase full of cash.

Also assuming AA is more comfortable with Estrada as the long man than he would've been with Happ if Sanchez wins the 5th rotation spot. Happ likely would've put up a fuss.

And that's definitely not encouraging depth of talent to me. I have to believe AA has an affinity to make an acquisition in the SP department.

well, remember, the projection systems are blind to cabrera's tumor, and just see 2013 as a bad healthy season.

Would they not also be blind to his PED enhanced years as well?

Uglyone makes a good point about the caveats on the Steamer projections, given Cabrera's tumor in 2013.  At the same time, it's interesting that Saunders actually outperformed Cabrera by wRC+ last season (126 vs 125).  Given his superior defensive skills, and even his ability to back-up CF occasionally if there's an injury to Pompey, it's not hard to imagine that Saunders will post a higher WAR than Cabrera next season, assuming no major injuries.   (Health is indeed a wild-card factor for Saunders.  Does he share the Lawrie propensity for injury?  Apparently his GM questioned his conditioning at the end of this past season.)

So - as the World Turns and the dust settles - AA has (not really but by a twisted sort of calculus) Traded Happ and Cabrera to Seattle for Saunders and a post-1st round / pre-2nd round draft pick. Which saves TO a bundle(ish) and replaces the 1st rounder we lost when Martin signed. i like the deal. there is a CHANCE - again when the 2015 dust has settled - that Saunders may end up actually being an offensive upgrade from Cabrera - now that he's out of Seattle - and no question, hands down he's a defensive upgrade - big time.

In fact - any chance the team asks Bautista to go to left to take some wear and tear off him and puts Saunders in right? What do you guys think?

Hendricks may be out of options. I believe Drabek has one option left. IMO both are unproven. C Jenkins is getting more valuable IMO.

My thoughts exactly about Jenkins (as I said already in this post). Just give the man a chance already. If he messes up, fine, you've got a good reliever. If he turns into Derek Lowe 2.0, you've found gold.

Well, we are down to just one LHP in our Starting Rotation. So unless A.A. has a big upgrade coming here, we are much weaker, even with Happ's warts.

Saunders will benefit from moving to a better hitting environment. His career OPS on the road is 74 points higher than at home. He just registered his highest BA, OBP, SLG and OPS in 2014 at the age of 27. He came up to the big leagues very early, and really struggled with the bat his first 3 years, at ages 22-24. His last 3 years have been much better, so he may be just coming into his own as a hitter. That OPS of .791 last year, in that park, is impressive, although he only played 78 games. The injury problems are a concern, but they do have Pillar as well, as long as Pompey is ready for CF. It will be interesting to see if they platoon Pillar with Saunders, or use Saunders as a regular, and mix/match Pillar/Pompey in CF. Depends on how each of the guys hit, but at least they have 3 guys for the 2 positions, so if one plays poorly, they can still be OK.

Looking at the fielding numbers they show at BR, his defensive stats as a CF look a little weak, but he grades as well above average as a corner. If his hitting numbers from last year are a true indication of what he can do, especially adjusting for the park, he's a very nice acquisition, and well worth the loss of Happ.

I'd like to see Estrada in the rotation now, given how well he pitched as a starter in 2012 and 2013 (ERA under 3.90, WHIP under 1.15 each year), but I expect the Jays want to move Sanchez there. Obviously, the bullpen needs some help now, with one of those guys moving into the rotation.

f Norris is our #7/#8 Starter (depending on what Estrada is), who's next - #8/#9? Not everyone can do, they need to be able to pitch up here. Secondly, who is the Starting staff in Buffalo this coming season? That might be more important than we know.

The obvious answer: invest in a solid LF such as Melky, Markakis, Fowler or Aoki.  Then you're done in the OF (except for the depth pieces that can be stashed in Buffalo) and you can concentrate on the bullpen and 1B/DH. 

Someone got to play at AAA. Gose, Pillar and Pompey were there last year. Now unless A.A. does something about Outfielders for the Big Club, Buffalo is short three Outfielders.

Can't lose sight of the AAA team - we don't want to end up losing that affiliation and end up with Las Vegas or some such thing again. Buffalo could still use a few more position players

So the Jays have restored the one-third Canadian content in their lineup that they lost when Lawrie departed.
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Aside from this Saunders trade to the Jays, Canadian baseball players seem to appear in recent news. The following is a very brief recap:

OF Jim Adduci had been released by the Texas Rangers to play in Japan in 2015
Corner OF/3B/1B Jamie Romak signed with the D-backs
IF Taylor Green signed with the Brewers
P Andrew Albers played 2014 in South Korea
P Scott Mathieson played 2014 in Japan

Even just looking at Bballref Canadian-born MLB players list, some interesting names appears: Chris Leroux, Scott Diamond, Rene Tosoni, John Axford. All these players play in 2014 MLB; "stashing" in Buffalo is possible with Canadians complementing Jays prospects.

More or less asking a question, could signing All-star Ryan Dempster to a minor league contract help pitcher performance development in Buffalo ?

Wesley Wright was non-tendered by the Cubs.
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May I know the source of it ?

Wade LeBlanc was also non-tendered; he was considered a Marlins' rotation candidate during his time in Miami and performed ok with the Dodgers: K/BB = 6.59/1.88 = 3.50532, WHIP 1.08, G/F = 1.37 over 28.2 IP and mostly a SP in AAA. He could signed to Buffalo with a spring training invitation ?

Gabe Sanchez as a cheaper James Loney in Buffalo ?

Speculation is fun. Is it dreaming or actual thinking?

Since we are all doing it:
1) I seriously doubt ie low %, that we trade for or sign a #1 SP FA.
2) The budget in U$ will be lower in 2015 than 2014. A little more than 50% probability I think.
3) We will win more games in 2015.

Correction: Rene Tosoni played independent league 2014.
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Speculation is fun. Is it dreaming or actual thinking?
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If my speculation is correct, why the Jays 2015 will carry more Canadians than any past Jays active roster ?

To quote the Spice Girls (for you youngsters they were a British girls band a decade or so ago) "I'll tell you what I want, what I really really want"...

I want Dickey, Stroman, Beherle, Hutch AND THEN I want a piggyback of Sanchez/Norris (Sanchez starts goes five innings Norris comes in goes four - five days later Norris comes in and goes 5 and Sanchez follows up with four - rinse and repeat) AND I want this because Dickey and Behrle are going after next year (most likely) and having Sanchez and Norris ready for 2016 would be a big plus. Remember, Osuna is also going to be knocking the door down by mid-season (most likely). Our 2016 rotation would be Stroman, Norris, Sanchez, Hutchison and most likely Osuna or perhaps an Osuna/Hoffman piggyback - I do love piggy - in the form of a nice thick bacon sarnie in particular.

You have a lot more faith in the consistency of results in Tommy J rehab than I do.