Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - The Winter Meetings Thread

Here is a thread to discuss all of the transactions that occur at the Winter Meetings, which are in sunny San Diego from December 7-11. Many GMs are looking to upgraded their teams still through free agency or trade, although the transactions that have occurred already this offseason suggest it may be a quieter winter meetings than usual.

There are several big name free agents who have yet to sign a contract, led most notably by Jon Lester who appears to be close to deciding. The leading contenders are reportedly the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and Dodgers, with Lester seeking a seven year deal. With Andrew Miller having signed, David Robertson appears to be not too far behind and is the remaining elite reliever left unsigned.

Posted by Thomas on Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:42 AM EST.

The Winter Meetings Thread | 329 comments | Create New Account

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Richard S.S. - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 07:15 AM EST (#296117) #

There is not much Outfielders available in Free Agency and all the Big Bats are gone. For those you have to go to the Trade Market to find anyone like that.

Starters are controlled by the Big Three, first signing starts the rush (but it won't be fast). A very rich Trade Market in Starting Pitchers is available, but expensive.

The big rush in Relievers could start at any the as David Robertson isn't necessary to be signed first.

The signings of Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Russell Martin set the Free Agent market prices, so they'll be high.

And the Blue Jays won't be active unless A.A. gets lucky.

Jonny German - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 07:42 AM EST (#296118) #

Apparently the Jays have signed a Belgian teenager, Sam Buelens.

http://www.mister-baseball.com/belgian-outfielder-sam-buelens-signs-toronto-blue-jays/

"In 2014 Buelens played for the Borgerhout Squirrels and won the championship in the Belgian Division I. He appeared in 34 games and batted .348 (OBP .448/SLG .430) with six extra base hits, 50 runs, 23 RBI and 31 stolen bases (in as many attempts)."

melondough - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 08:23 AM EST (#296121) #

The rumours of the Jays interest in Holland has me wondering if AA would be willing to deal Hutchinson for him. I can see this being discussed. I picture KC would be willing to consider Hutch plus another piece that Navarro could bring back (maybe am OF from the Cubs?).

Personally I like the way the Jays are built right now and would rather not take any core pieces off this team to obtain Holland, especially when there are many serviceable RP out there.

I do however envision a 3 way that will eventually include Navarro.

melondough - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 08:28 AM EST (#296123) #

I should have added that I would be fine with a Hutchinson + Navarro (or something of substance we can get for him to flip in such a deal) for Holland deal only if AA had an agreement in place with a FA starter such as McCarthy. He is a player that I have noted twice before I would love to see us sign. For me, there can not be enough ground ball pitchers on this team.

John Northey - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:02 AM EST (#296124) #

Hrm... I do not like the idea of trading a starter for a closer as often starters can be very effective closers. Holland has been lights out for awhile now, 12.5 K/9 lifetime (275 IP) vs 3.2 BB/9 is impressive along with the 0.5 HR/9. He has 2 years of control before free agency. Still, even as a super-closer he peaked with 3.1 WAR in 2013 and 2.5 last year.

Hutchison has 4 years of control, but nowhere near the 'wow' factor (88 ERA+ lifetime). To trade him I'd need to be certain he isn't about to break through (his 9,0 K/9 2.9 BB/9 last year was impressive but his 1.1 HR/9 less so) and putting him in KC would give him a great chance (much better pitchers park than the dome - funny, just checked and it is a slight hitters park now and has been neutral pretty much all along but everyone thought of it as a pitchers park in the 80's). Tough to say what would be fair but I have trouble imagining an everyday catcher and a starting pitcher is fair for a closer - even a lights out one.

uglyone - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:11 AM EST (#296125) #

Yeah, put me down as considering swapping an SP for an RP as insane. let alone a $9+m RP. Let alone for a young cheap SP with Hutch's track record. that's crazy talk.

In other news, it seems like AA's default setting for these meetings are:

1) add some FA RP. sounds like he has money to add a big onebut may spread it around a few arms instead.
2) suss out any potential cheap stopgap upgrades at 2b.

and that sounds about right to me. an SP would be nice but with our current roster and payroll and system its not a priority unless something surprising becomes available.

John Northey - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:49 AM EST (#296128) #

An interesting one - Ichiro is hunting for work, would you sign him to be the 4th OF on the team sending one of Pillar or Pompey to AAA (or both if neither are ready)? He can play all 3 OF positions, with a positive UZR/150 lifetime at all 3 although negative at all 3 last year. His baserunning is excellent as always and can hit enough to endure. If he would sign for $1 mil then I'd say 'sure why not' but wouldn't go further than that with no guarantee of playing time.

As to what AA is up to - I'd say a 4th OF, backup SS, relief help should all be on his shopping list. Don't be afraid to upgrade elsewhere but given the costs I would be surprised although, after the Donaldson trade, I wouldn't be shocked.

China fan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:50 AM EST (#296129) #

There have also been a number of hints that Anthopoulos is looking to add another 1B/DH. That makes sense, because the Jays really cannot reliably count on Justin Smoak to be a good full-time 1B for a whole season, much as we might squint at his splits and perceive the potential for success at Rogers Stadium. Smoak is useful to have around, but I think AA wants to acquire an additional player for that role too.

So this week I'm sure AA will be focusing on the bullpen, with 2B and 1B/DH as possible additional targets. And probably starting-pitcher depth too, although he might prefer to wait until later in the off-season when the price drops.

jgadfly - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:53 AM EST (#296130) #

"...there can not be enough ground ball pitchers on this team"

A question for the more computer literate who know where to find the information (John?). I assume that for visiting teams the Rogers Dome turf poses ground ball fielding problems with both speed and tricky bounces (spin) for the infield. Is it possible to isolate visiting team fielding at Rogers vs how they field elsewhere ? Do visiting teams have disproportionately more errors or allow more ground ball hits.

Conversely, do Jay infielders have better fielding away from the Dome and do Jay pitchers get a higher percentage of ground ball outs in away parks ?

Also, this raises the question of Jay hitters. Do they have more GB hits or outs at home vs away ? Does a speedster like Gose lose more hits at home because of the faster field than he does on the road because of the slower grass fields.

I get the sense that shortstops like Reyes and Jeter get to a lesser number of ground balls at Rogers and that they create a lesser number of errors away from Toronto because they are more comfortable coming in on grounders than getting to them laterally. I suppose Tango Tiger has the answers and that is probably why he is working for the Jays. Also, is there a Stimpmetre for different fields ?

Jevant - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:28 AM EST (#296132) #

I would be very concerned if AA trades a current core rotation piece for a closer (or even a guy like Norris or Sanchez).

stevieboy22 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 12:35 PM EST (#296134) #

Hutchison still has at least 3 years of control....

Trading him for a reliever would be insane...

I'm interested to see what Hutch can do with a catcher that can actually frame...

SK in NJ - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 12:44 PM EST (#296135) #

Hutchison missed the super two cut off, so he is under team control for four more years and makes pre-arb salary in 2015 (near the min). Trading him for one expensive year of Holland would be horrendous.

bpoz - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 01:20 PM EST (#296136) #

When ST ends I really hope the Jays have 3 potential closers on the team. Cecil, Loup & Sanchez, if in our pen are fine as far as I am concerned.
Estrada, Jenkins & Redmond have proven value in the pen. That is 5 for the opening day pen, I am not sure about the role of Sanchez. Delabar is the 6th, he has to play himself off the opening day team IMO. We need 3 more pen arms to make 7, factoring in opening day injuries. One has to be a pretty good righty. He will have to be acquired. The extra lefty can be Rasmussen, I suppose he can be stretched out to do 2-3 innings.
Estrada & Redmond have proven track records, so they have roles that they should be able to fill well. Somehow there will be enough opportunity for both. Jenkins? I like him, I hope he gets a good opportunity somewhere. So far he has not had this opportunity with the Jays. Who knows, maybe he can even close. I can see that happening if Sanchez becomes decent as a part of the rotation. All it takes is an injury to open up a spot. But he may not be stretched out. There are many ways for things to happen, many planned and the some accidental.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 02:12 PM EST (#296137) #

I think our saving grace in the bullpen is that if the starting rotation settles a little mid-season (i.e. no injuries and Sanchez holds his own) then there will be some young options to step up late in the year. Castro, Osuna, Hoffman and Norris are all mid to late season bullpen options.

Donkit R.K. - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 02:21 PM EST (#296139) #

I was here when Batter's Box started, but I kinda drifted towards basketball as the sport I followed closely online and I haven't posted here in yeeeaaars. That being said:

Gregerson, Neshek, and Clippard - what kind of salary range are they expected to sign in? I imagine the three combined would come cheaper than someone like Robertson? I believe they're three righties too? Would look like a pretty good pen alongside Loup and Cecil.

What's everyone opinion on the disposed closers on the market like Grilli, Romo, and Motte? Better or worse options than Janssen? I'd prefer a closer by committee among the aforementioned 5 - but is there any chance there's someone in the org that might pressure AA into getting someone with experience in the closer role?

jerjapan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 02:48 PM EST (#296141) #

Donit, I'm a big fan of the names mentioned. Stoeten looked into some of the options in more detail on his blog and concludes that Neshek makes sense at 2 years and 10 million - I fully agree with that figure. He also likes Motte and especially Grilli on rebound contracts. he's got the MLBTR salary estimates which put Gregerson and Romo down for roughty 3 years at 7 million each.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/12/08/taking-a-closer-look-at-the-jays-free-agent-relief-options/#more-26700

I think the magical glow surrounding closers is offically gone in the Jays org, but they could still go for a closer type - Soriano is a name that Stoeten thinks makes sense.

A committee of Cecil and a couple of these names would be pretty tight, I think.. And i wouldn't rule Jansen out at all. I for one loved watching him pitch, and with his rough second half, he could be a bargain.

pooks137 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 02:53 PM EST (#296142) #

Castro, Osuna, Hoffman and Norris are all mid to late season bullpen options

I keep seeing people mention that guys like Osuna and Castro could be on the team this year. I just don't see it, though I'm not a big prospect guy.

I know they both have good pedigree, but both are so far away. You can't really count or even hope that these guys take a Kendall Graveman-like development path. And Graveman was a much older college grad.

They are so young and so far away. So much could happen. Don't put any expectations on them, they will only disappoint. Fill the pen with veteran, fungible relievers who can do the job and make a spot for the young guys if they force you too.

uglyone - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:09 PM EST (#296144) #

steamer projections are by no means authoratative, and probably even worse for relievers, but here's their reliever projections:

* - jays property

Holland 2.22era, 2.39fip
Robertson 2.59era, 2.57fip
Cecil* 2.97era, 3.06fip
Grilli 2.86era, 3.42fip
Clippard 2.90era, 3.63fip
Loup* 3.36era, 3.59fip
Romo 3.30era, 3.62fip
Gregerson 3.40era, 3.50fip
Neshek 3.20era, 3.76fip
Hendriks* 3.55era, 3.71fip
Estrada* 3.41era, 3.98fip
Motte 3.70era, 3.90fip
Janssen 3.93era, 4.13fip
Delabar* 3.85era, 4.21fip
Redmond* 3.87era, 4.26fip
Rasmussen* 4.06era, 4.27fip
Drabek* 4.15era, 4.24fip
Jenkins* 4.36era, 4.31fip

guys like grilli, clippard, romo, gregerson do look useful by these numbes, though i wouldn't pay too much for them.

China fan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:19 PM EST (#296145) #

Hendriks projected as a better reliever than Janssen? Not sure about those projections....

uglyone - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:22 PM EST (#296146) #

janssen's k/9 fslling all the way down to 5.5 last year crushes his projections.

hendriks, on the other hand, in his brief 17ip sample as an mlb reliever has a 10.7k/9 and 1.5bb/9 which will force any projection system to acknowledge the potential of him maybe being good in the pen.

China fan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:26 PM EST (#296147) #

The Jays have acquired 31-year-old 1B Chris Colabello on waivers from the Twins. He has a minor-league option remaining, so he'll probably be stashed at Buffalo like a new version of Dan Johnson. He has gaudy hitting numbers at AAA, but poor numbers in his two seasons in the majors. Looking for signs of optimism in his splits, the only things that I can see are: 1) much better record on the road than at home, with a .752 OPS on the road; 2) a weird pattern of success in April and September, combined with very poor numbers from May to August, which might lead an optimist to suggest that he eventually adjusted to the pitchers and began to improve at the end of the season. Probably a mirage, however.

dan gordon - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:38 PM EST (#296148) #

"Gregerson, Neshek, and Clippard - what kind of salary range are they expected to sign in?"

Clippard is arb eligible, not a free agent. He made just under $6 million last year and had a good year, so he'll get a decent raise. With Neshek's age, somewhat inconsistent history, and lack of closing experience, he may be relatively cheap, compared to other relievers. He made only $1 million last year.

"What's everyone opinion on the disposed closers on the market like Grilli, Romo, and Motte?"

I gave a pretty detailed explanation of why I don't think Romo is a good fit for the Jays near the end of the Saunders/Happ thread. Some of those comments also apply to Neshek, re: age, vulnerability to lefties and home/road splits, but I think Neshek would be a nice piece as long as they don't use him as the closer.

Grilli is a 38 year old guy with a career ERA of 4.16, WHIP of 1.37. I don't think he interests me very much. Motte was very good for 3 years in a row, then missed all of 2013 with TJ surgery, then really struggled last year and had some back trouble. If he's healthy, I think he could be a nice addition. You might be able to get a bit of a bargain if he bounces back close to what he was in 2010-2012.

Gregerson has had some very good numbers, but you have to keep in mind the pitchers' paradise he's played in for his whole career. Look at his home/road splits - career, home, ERA 2.02, WHIP 0.921, OPS against 0.509; career, road, ERA 3.60, WHIP 1.263, OPS against .697. You're going to be getting results similar to his road record, not his home record. I have a feeling he's going to get overpaid. Gregerson's road ERA, WHIP, and OPS against are pretty similar to what Chad Jenkins has done in his mlb career so far, although Jenkins has only pitched about 100 innings, and he probably, given his minor league record and K/BB numbers, wouldn't keep up that level of performance.

China fan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:47 PM EST (#296150) #

One more note about Colabello: he hit extremely well for the first few weeks of 2014 in the majors (.295/.343/.484 slash line), then got a thumb injury on April 23 and struggled for months after that. As of this month, he was telling the media that his injured thumb is "almost healed" -- so presumably it was affecting his hitting for most of the season. So there's a possibility, I suppose, that his hot-hitting April wasn't just a fluke and that he could bounce back in 2015. He also plays some RF. So there's that.

Mike Green - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:50 PM EST (#296151) #

Hendriks did go 12-2 with an ERA of 2.45 and a 13/126 W/K last year in triple A at age 25. I know that triple A isn't the same thing as the major leagues and that Hendriks has gotten killed as a starter in the major leagues. For what it's worth, I ran a Play Index to see how comparable players fared. I used an ERA+ less than 75, a W/9 rate less than 2.75, a K/9 rate of 5.75 or more and at least 150 innings pitched through age 25. There was one other player- Brandon Maurer. No help. If you loosen the criteria a bit, you get players like Jim Brewer who started out like Hendriks and ended up as an ace reliever.

China fan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:54 PM EST (#296152) #

Even after the acquisition of Colabello, the Jays still have only 37 players on their 40-man roster. So we should expect AA to continue to be active on the waiver wire this month and perhaps in the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. Plenty of room for a couple of relievers or 1B or 4th OF types. And several players can easily be dropped from the 40-man roster if necessary (including Matt Hague, Bo Schultz etc). So there's lots of room for activity.

stevieboy22 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:56 PM EST (#296153) #

I love the idea of bringing in Smoak and Colabello to complete for first..

But they should probably bring a Dan Johnson/Lyle Overbay type in as organizational depth (no promise of making the 25 man roster)...

The Smoak/Colabello experiment could easily end up as a disaster... It would be prudent to go out and get some more depth....

Cracka - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 03:56 PM EST (#296154) #

Colabello had a ridiculous April and was among the early AL leaders in OPS and RBI. As soon as I saw the signing, I thought of this viral video that was making the the rounds and was most likely the highlight of his season: http://nesn.com/2014/04/twins-chris-colabello-hits-home-run-while-his-mom-is-interviewed-video/

Overall, he's Dan Johnson, but not as good defensively. Big swing, streaky, will surprise pitchers who haven't prepared for him... but unlikely to be a regular contributor.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:25 PM EST (#296155) #

Soriano is a name that Stoeten thinks makes sense.

Well there's authority for you.

jerjapan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:41 PM EST (#296156) #

what's wrong with stoeten? he's informed about advanced metrics, thoughtful and as up to date as any blogger out there. is it the profanity and 'drunk jays' thing that disqualifies him? he absolutely speaks to, and represents, the new generation of young, smart, stats minded jays fans. who cares if he drinks too much and has an adam lind beard? im guilty of both sins myself.

jensan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:43 PM EST (#296157) #

My question is trading for a reliever for Navarro . Which team requires a catcher?

If it is Texas - Navarro plus Osuna ? For a reliever and a middle infielder such as Profor or Salinas?

PeterG - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:45 PM EST (#296158) #

Rosenthal reports that Lester will go to SF or Cubs. Red Sox out.

Donkit R.K. - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:48 PM EST (#296159) #

I was under the impression that the relievers I mentioned would come cheaper. Gotta remember how much the salaries have changed since I last tried to look at baseball from a more-than-casual fan perspective haha. Still all seem like intriguing names, although Gregerson moves down my wish list. I'd definitely like to see Neshek brought in, but not as the closer, ideally.

uglyone - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 04:58 PM EST (#296160) #

navarro should be worth a good reliever all by himself, maybe more.

he is a solid capable every day catcher. not many rp are worth more than that.

man would it be nice to see boston strike out with lester. i've been a bit boggled with how easily everyone thinks the sox can just build themseleves an entire rotation on the FA market, but even i thought they'd pony up for lester. if they can't win the bid for lester than i doubt they win the bid for scherzer or shields, and then getting goo sp starts costing them good young assets, unless they decide to go with a rotation full of mid rotation filler this year. either possibility makes me smile.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 05:10 PM EST (#296161) #

According to Jon Morosi, the Rays and the City of St. Pete's have reached agreement on the Rays being able to move to a different municipality, either in Pinellas or Hillsborough. That strikes me as good news, because i'd like the Blue Jays' feet held to the fire on natural grass and being the last team with artificial turf should help in that regard. Bob Elliot's petition answered 30 years late, but answered nonetheless.

Alex Obal - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 05:32 PM EST (#296162) #

For those who care about the truly important aspects of relief pitchers, Romo and Soriano have two of the three best closer entrance songs in the game: "El Mech�n" by Banda MS and "Picha Soriano," traditional, respectively. (The third is obviously Glen Perkins with "God's Gonna Cut You Down.")

jensan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 05:32 PM EST (#296163) #

Great name team who requires a catcher

JB21 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 05:46 PM EST (#296164) #

Huh?

bpoz - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:05 PM EST (#296166) #

Any examples of a non tendered player signing a minor league with with ST invite? They get to compete for a ML job.

There are many out of options players on 40 man rosters that will not make their team's Opening day roster. Hope our scouts are up to the task.

TB's new manager is Kevin Cash. If he is good ... well the Indian do have a good manager. Probably no regrets.

bpoz - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:09 PM EST (#296167) #

I do not know what Beane in Oakland is doing? But he is very smart.

jerjapan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:19 PM EST (#296168) #

the Cubs, White Sox and Pirates need a catcher. The Sox and the Braves might want a vet like Navarro for a year till their heralded young catchers can emerge.

Here's Stoeten, with the sort of instant, thoughtful analysis on minor transactions that I like about him:

http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/12/08/thumbs-up-for-the-jays-chris-colabello-claim/

Shaker - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:23 PM EST (#296169) #

Teams that appear to be seeking Catchers: Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers plus maybe Angels and ChiSox.

On the block: Rosario (Rockies) and Montero (D'backs), maybe Gattis (Braves, more of an LF/DH) and likely Castro (Astros) and possibly Ruiz (Phillies).

It's pretty fluid, despite our obsession with Navarro, there are potentially many moves before we get "our reliever" for him.

PeterG - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:32 PM EST (#296170) #

Could Estrada be a closer candidate? He did very well in relief the 2nd half of last season. Saw a list last week where he was third in MLB in missed bats (swinging strikes). Might be worth a look in ST. I am of the opinion that we need to add a couple of good relievers but not necessarily a proven closer. That can sort itself in ST from amongst several possible candidates.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:53 PM EST (#296171) #

I do not know what Beane in Oakland is doing? But he is very smart.

Beane's showing how you can use the players who were on the team with the best record in baseball in the first half of the season, as assets to obtain players that either won't be around, like Lester, or else aren't very good. Wendle is a down market Devon Travis and he used Brandon Moss to get him.

Sal - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 06:54 PM EST (#296172) #

I was wondering, like a few other posters, which teams might want Navarro.

I looked at catchers stats last year for each team and if they have a catching prospect nearly ready for the majors. Here is my guess for teams that might be interested and might consider Navarro an upgrade:
1- Boston
2- LA Dodgers (maybe, probably not interested)

There is a couple more long shot teams but I think there is actually very little demand for Navarro.

I hope I am missing something.

jerjapan - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 07:18 PM EST (#296174) #

Beane's showing how you can use the players who were on the team with the best record in baseball in the first half of the season, as assets to obtain players that either won't be around, like Lester, or else aren't very good. Wendle is a down market Devon Travis and he used Brandon Moss to get him.

I don't love the Moss trade from Oakland's POV either, didn't like the Lester move, and I thought we won the Donaldson deal.

That said, he's been one of the most successful GMs in the game for 17 years, with 8 playoff appearances and a winning percentage over 530 during his tenure. It's like you are suggesting that the team 'with the best record in baseball in the first half" wasn't his creation.

92-93 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 08:22 PM EST (#296176) #

@pooks137 - AA himself was saying how Castro could be a big league reliever this year, so a lot of what you are reading from fans is based on that comment. Sure, he could've been trying to pump up Castro's value (like Nestor Molina prior to his trade) or simply blowing smoke (like Farrell on Dyson), but it's not like fans are just reading the kid's stat sheet and getting excited.

I'm skeptical the team can get the right piece it's looking for by trading Navarro. The only reason I can see for the Jays being better off trading Navarro would come from the keeping-your-promise angle in terms of Navarro being promised a starting C job to accept Toronto's offer, if that actually happened. I continue to think this team still hasn't adequately replaced his bat in the lineup for it to make sense to trade Navarro - I like the idea of Smoak, but they shouldn't be relying on him for much of anything until they see it themselves.

John Northey - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 08:42 PM EST (#296178) #

The more I read about the chaos created by the Jays looking for Beeston's replacement the more fun it is. Right now the ChiSox and Orioles have high up people very annoyed with ownership because they are not being allowed to interview for a job they want that would be a promotion. That has to make it more difficult for both clubs to succeed as a distracted front office is a sloppy one. Heck, that has to be a kick in the pants for the Orioles as they are in the same division as the Jays and likely the two will be fighting it out for the AL East title given the issues in NY/Boston/Tampa right now.

melondough - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:02 PM EST (#296181) #

I found this National Post article to be quite an interesting read on how the Jays stack up against their competitors in War. They break it down with a pretty neat colour coded comparison grid.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/12/08/what-do-the-toronto-blue-jays-still-need-charting-the-team-position-by-position/

Also, I can't recall where I read it but there was a script of some of the things AA said to the media today. One of the tidbits I found interesting was that he said there was only one FA at this point he was ready to offer a contract to but he just signed somewhere else and really wanted to just play for "them".

Who is this he is referring to? I am thinking it's Hammels since he signed today. That said, I would have expected him to be focusing in on a lefty starter. Personally I would love to see Sanchez in the bullpen to start the season. I think he will thrive there and would also mean AA would not have to go after 3 RP. Another starter makes sense to me.

melondough - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:26 PM EST (#296182) #

With it being rumoured that Samardzija is on the verge of being dealt to CWS for Siemen and some prospects, I can only say those prospects better be of the premium kind. Otherwise I just don't see why AA could not offer a better package. If Oak wants a young SS (like Siemen) could the Jays not flip Navarro somewhere else to get them one?

Last year Samardzija earned $5.3M and being arbitration eligible this year I assume he will earn $7M or $8M on 2015 before being a FA in 2016. He would look excellent in a Jays uniform. Excellent WHIP and K numbers. Very frustrating. Worse though would be if I were an A's fan. They could conceivably lose Hammel, Lester, and Samardzija tonight. They will be terrible next year.

Gerry - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:49 PM EST (#296183) #

Long time friend of Batters Box, Dane Johnson, will be the new bullpen coach for the Jays.

greenfrog - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:49 PM EST (#296184) #

Melondough, I saw those comments too. I was thinking Zach Duke was the free agent the Jays might have wanted.

Donkit R.K. - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:06 PM EST (#296185) #

I read 9 or 9.5 was the expected number for Samardjiza

pooks137 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:09 PM EST (#296186) #

I was thinking Zach Duke was the free agent the Jays might have wanted.

I thought AA might be referring to Victor Martinez. There was some speculation in the media that the Tigers "feared" the Jays aggressiveness and tried to lock up Martinez early. Trading Adam Lind away without a clear replacement could have also been an indication how AA was thinking of taking a run at Martinez.

At the time of the Martinez rumours, no one was really taking the Jays seriously as the "mystery team" as AA/Rogers hadn't yet signed Martin/opened the vault/proved they were serious players in FA. I'm not sure of the timeline, but the "making of" backstory of the Martin signing where internal reports suggested that he wasn't initially on their radar could suggest that the focus/monies may have switched to Martin after Martinez was out of play.

pooks137 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:13 PM EST (#296187) #

I was thinking Zach Duke was the free agent the Jays might have wanted.

And while Zach Duke is obviously a nice piece, non-closing LOOGY/LH relievers are one of the few places on the team where the Jays are set/have depth with Cecil and Loup. I can't really see AA coveting him over everything else out there with the teams current holes/needs.

vw_fan17 - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:18 PM EST (#296188) #

Very frustrating. Worse though would be if I were an A's fan. They could conceivably lose Hammel, Lester, and Samardzija tonight. They will be terrible next year.

melondough - I have a feeling this has been said, and turned out to be untrue much more often than "the Jays will be good next year" has been true. It seems that almost every offseason I hear the A's will suck, and, come September, they're in the thick of a pennant race, ahead of the Jays... Sure, they do have a few sucky years in there, but in general, they've been much more enjoyable (from a "winning" point of view) than the Jays over the last 20 years, IMHO.

melondough - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:30 PM EST (#296189) #

I read 9 or 9.5 was the expected number for Samardjiza

Even still, I would happily have him start 20% of our games at under $10M. He is a stud pitcher and at under 30 could have a few great years left in him to boot. At worst we could qualify him at season�s end and get a sandwich pick if not re-signed. That would replace part of the package needed to obtain him today.

I was thinking Zach Duke was the free agent the Jays might have wanted.

I also highly doubt another lefty is who AA meant when he said there was one FA he really wanted but couldn�t get because that player really wanted to go somewhere specific. I agree with Pooks137 that it was likely Vmart but I read his comment to imply it was someone more recently that�s why I figured it was Hammel. Anyone know where that article is that I know I saw today?

It seems that almost every offseason I hear the A's will suck, and, come September, they're in the thick of a pennant race, ahead of the Jays

I don�t know vw_fan17. Mr. Beane has really dismantled the team this time but I get it. Though they still do have tons of starting pitching depth with an ace in Gray (someone I think Stoman can emulate this year) as well as Kazmir and Chavez along with Griffin and Parker coming back from TJ. I guess their hitting has never had to be great in the past. They have traditionally relied on pitching in that spacious ballpark.

John Northey - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 11:34 PM EST (#296190) #

I think the problem for the A's is perception. 2 of the past 3 winters the Jays have gone out and done something to excite the fans but failed in the regular season. The A's tend to do the opposite... they flop in winter then boom in summer. The A's approach is better for wins but the Jays is better for selling season tickets.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:52 AM EST (#296191) #

Chisox sign Robertson. 4yrs, $40++

John Northey - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:39 AM EST (#296192) #

A few pieces falling now....

White Sox To Acquire Jeff Samardzija - A's get Marcus Semien and Chris Bassitt plus a 3rd player
Diamondbacks Sign Yasmany Tomas -a top Cuban player, $14MM signing bonus, salaries of $2MM, $4MM, $6MM and $10MM, and a one-time player option for $15.5MM for 2019 and $17MM in 2020
White Sox To Sign David Robertson for 4 years, $46 million- less than reports suggested he'd get

So 2 guys the Jays would've liked are gone. Samardzija I saw as a 'meh' to be honest, might have been an upgrade but we still don't know the full cost. Robertson at $11.5 mil a year for 4 years sure sounds tempting but the Jays probably would've had to guarantee a 5th year or push it to $12-13 mil to get him and 4 years is pushing it for a reliever imo while 5 years is asking for trouble.

katman - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:44 AM EST (#296193) #

At this point, with Robertson out of the picture, I do think Sanchez has to be the closer if the team is all in for 2015, unless there's a trade move on the horizon. There's no-one else I see with the kind of shut-down stuff a contending team needs as a free agent signing, and if the closer position goes wonky we've seen that it throws out the whole bullpen. I suppose we could try Cecil, and he might be OK, but we're much stronger with Sanchez. In a playoff run, you NEED a guy like Sanchez, as 2014 showed. And as I mentioned before, I do not trust Sanchez's 2014 walk rate as a starter in a major league role.

Once that bullet is bit, a couple things can happen. One involves filling out a bullpen that will pitch a lot, given that Dickey, Hutch & our likely #5 starter will be 5-6 inning pitchers. We then have:

-- in --
Sanchez
Cecil*
Loup*
Estrada+
Jenkins+
Redmond+

-- prove-its --
Delabar
Drabek
Rasmussen*
McFarland?

Translation: Realistically, another signing (Gregorson? Neshek?) or trade will be needed to add a solid late-inning bullpen piece.

Then the Jays need a starter to take Sanchez' slot, giving us Dickey, Stro, MB, Hutch, +1 - but the truth is you need about 7-8 starters over a season. Norris can start in Buffalo and force his way in. If Norris doesn't, Estrada and Jenkins can spot-start as needed for injuries. Now we begin to have starting pitching depth, though it's still pretty thin, and total rotation quality is an issue. Unless Stro & Hutch take another major step forward, we'd want the additional starter to be better than Happ was (like, a #3 type minimum), because this is a starting lineup with too many #3-4-5 types. You can live with a bunch of 3s if offense is great, but not with a couple of 3s and then 4-5s. So sign/trade in a 3, hope Stro becomes a 2 and Hutch a 3. If not, you got insurance so you're at least 3, 3, 3, 3-4, 5; if so, you have 2, 3, 3, 3, 3-4 which can be made to work.

Bullpen may get mid-late season help from minors, and Norris could emerge as a starter or a bullpen guy for later in the season. Which we may need if Stro & Hutch don't step forward together.

TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:09 AM EST (#296194) #

what's wrong with stoeten? he's informed about advanced metrics, thoughtful and as up to date as any blogger out there.

I'm with you there. Finest writer on the Jays, period.

rpriske - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 08:35 AM EST (#296195) #

I'd be okay with Cecil transitioning to closer.

I's rather that than give away too much for Holland.

raptorsaddict - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 08:54 AM EST (#296196) #

Add me to the pro-Stoeten club. His work is excellent, and now that he's out from underneath the thumb of the Score his productivity and output is through the roof, and the quality remains very high. He's also enjoyable to read. I put him at the top of the list of Jays writers.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 10:18 AM EST (#296197) #

yeah stoets is great. one of the only (maybe the only) jays writers whose player analysis i can take seriously. and he's funny too.

a bit too respectful to keith law for my liking, but that's just a quibble.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 10:58 AM EST (#296198) #

Beane's pitching acquisitions at the deadline last year were costly and (I think) improvident. I understand exactly what he's doing this off-season though. Semien and Lawrie will occupy two key middle infield slots at low cost (I am guessing Lawrie at second and Semien at third although it might be Lawrie at third and Semien at shortstop). It looks like Crisp is going to have move to left-field, but Gentry is there to take over in centerfield. His pitching staff should be absolutely fine.

It's not easy to compete consistently on the budget he has to work with.

snowman - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 11:41 AM EST (#296199) #

"One involves filling out a bullpen that will pitch a lot, given that Dickey, Hutch & our likely #5 starter will be 5-6 inning pitchers."

A minor quibble, perhaps, but I wouldn't lump Dickey in with the 5-6 inning pitchers. He averaged 6 1/3 per start last year, slightly more than Buerhle. And led the team in starts. They may not be ace-quality innings, but you should be able to count on getting 200+ innings from Dickey next season.

But I would agree that the bullpen will likely be logging a lot of innings next season. I'd like to see a few longmen, like Jenkins, and fewer one-inning guys.

finch - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 11:56 AM EST (#296200) #

Reading as to what Chase Headley is asking for makes the Donaldson trade even THAT much better. I still can't get over the value we got.

I like Storen as our closer. LEt's get hiM!

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 11:58 AM EST (#296201) #

LEt's get hiM!

I didn't know that there was a section of the internet where you can clip out letters like in the old days for ransom notes and such. Al Gore thought of everything when he invented the contraption.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:05 PM EST (#296202) #

A.A. made an offer for K.C.'s Holland. Apparently they want a young Starter in return.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:26 PM EST (#296203) #

How much is a top reliever worth anyways? Checking FanGraphs I found 10 in the majors who were worth 2+ WAR. Dellin Betances & Wade Davis were over 3, Aroldis Chapman & Jake McGee over 2.5, while Sean Doolittle, Andrew Miller, Greg Holland, Craig Kimbrel, Steve Cishek, and Kenley Jansen were 2.0+. Not many. For comparison there were 33 starters worth 3+, 55 worth 2+ WAR. So one in 3 teams have a 2+ WAR reliever while on average there are almost 2 starters per team worth 2+ WAR.

In 2013 there were 2 over 3 WAR (Koji Uehara & Greg Holland) with just 8 worth 2+ (Joe Nathan, Mark Melancon, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Nate Jones).

From 2012 to 2014 we see 3 relievers total 7+ WAR (Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and Aroldis Chapman), with Kenley Jansen over 6, and Sean Doolittle, Koji Uehara, Jake McGee, and David Robertson worth 5+ WAR.

So clearly Holland is one of the best around. Him and Chapman are the two I'd be most tempted by. Kimbrel would also be sweet (both ERA + FIP below 2 every season of his career) and might be available. Funny - all 3 of the best by WAR pitchers in the majors for the past 3 seasons could be on the trading block.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:30 PM EST (#296204) #

On the topic of teams that need catchers, Arizona will need someone to replace Montero who was just traded to the Cubs. Also I believe Colorado would be looking for help at the backstop position.

As for what could be grabbed from either organization for Dioner Navarro, I have no idea. I don't expect the Snakes will part with David Peralta or AJ Pollock. Vidal Nuno?

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:35 PM EST (#296205) #

hey john, if you feel like doing a breakdown of how many rp reliably get 2+ war a season, or even 1+ for that matter, i wouldn't mind one bit.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:46 PM EST (#296206) #

WAR has its failings. One of them is in reliever evaluation. To give an example, Mariano Rivera had 40.2 career fWAR. No one who has thought about it treats that number seriously. Rivera pitched with a career leverage of about 1.8; WAR does not account for this. His career WPA was 57, which is probably still low, but is at least within the park. In his best years, Rivera had a WPA between 4.5 and 5, and usually a WAR of about 3. The WPA number is probably more representative of his contribution. Holland's WPA has been exactly 7 over the last 2 years; you are generally looking at 3-4 for high leverage relievers, with Rivera (of course) in basically a class of his own (the Yankees saved him for the post-season or his seasonal numbers would have been even more otherworldly).

melondough - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 12:58 PM EST (#296207) #

"A.A. made an offer for K.C.'s Holland. Apparently they want a young Starter in return."

I agree that Hutchinson is too much but I am fine with trading him for Holland IF we can also get another fine piece like Lorenzo Cain (who can hit, steal, and comes with elite defensive abilities). This would fill AA's goal of adding a CF as well as someone with speed to burn.

Obviously KC would not do that straight up but they do have Dyson who can take over in CF and are looking for corner OF's. That said, I could seem them considering it if we added Navarro which I suspect can be flipped prior to the trade for a half decent corner OF.

Hutchinson + Navarro for Cain + Holland

From the Jays point of view this would make sense only on the premise they go out and sign a FA starter of quality (a #3 rotation guys will do).

Looking at it closely it seems like a doable deal for KC. It would be tough for them to move Cain Cain since he made just $546K last year and is arbitration eligible with $2.3M the expected salary (and not a FA until 2019). Holland comes in with an expected salary of $9.3M. However Hutchinson missed out on super 2 status by just a few days and would expect to earn close to $500K again this year and is not a FA until 2020. That would be appealing for KC not to mention Hutchinson is age 24, 4 years younger than Cain. Well on second thought I may have talked myself out of wishing for this hypothetical deal, it would be very difficult to swallow trading.

MLB Trade Rumours has a page full of expected arbitration contracts here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2015.html

soupman - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 01:03 PM EST (#296208) #

in terms of context neutral wins (wpa/li), since 2012 [RP >100IP], casey janssen has been worth 3.06; David Robertson that just signed for all the money has been worth 3.31, and the only guy separating them is tyler clippard. no one else available has been better.

in the same time span, holland has been worth 4.58, second only to the force that is koji uehara. for reference.

i think there's a huge value in having a 'game over' guy in the 9th, but the #s don't seem to indicate it's nearly as much as most people think...either that or Janssen is extremely under-valued in this market, despite basically being david robertson's equal according to this one stat that i looked at because it seemed to be a good way of controlling for a lot of the 'fuzz' in other stats.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=100&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13%2cd

hypobole - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 01:04 PM EST (#296209) #

Hello? Sorry, I must have the wrong address. I'm looking for Batter's Box, the website where relief pitchers are totally fungible. :)

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 01:08 PM EST (#296210) #

I know this isn't of much importance but it's bothered me a few times reading here so I'm going to try pointing it out -- it's Drew Hutchison, not Hutchinson. Drew Hutchison. One less letter to type. Sounds better. Is accurate. And no way KC is trading Cain for Hutchison and Navarro. I don't expect they would trade Cain and Holland for Hutchison and Norris either. KC needs offense in a big way and want to compete now.

PeterG - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 01:40 PM EST (#296211) #

According to Bob Elliott, KC asked for Norris in return and the conversation was over.

Jevant - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:05 PM EST (#296212) #

Royals are now apparently shopping Omar Infante, and not relief pitching? Not sure who would play 2B for them, and he'd be a bit of a longer term solution than just running Izturis out there, but depending on cost...

Certainly means you wouldn't have to rush Travis.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:43 PM EST (#296213) #

Mike - agreed that WAR isn't ideal for relievers as it undervalues them as a rule. Still, interesting to see that top ones can reach 2-3 WAR a year ($12-18 mil in value). If that is an underestimate of the value then you could see an argument of Hutchison for Holland (doesn't mean I would do it, just that a case could be made). The Norris for Holland idea is a total 'no (#@ way' case though.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:50 PM EST (#296214) #

If the Jays are going after an upgrade at second base, I'd prefer they use Norris in a package to get Zobrist from TB.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:54 PM EST (#296215) #

If Dejesus could still play CF, I'd say he and Zobrist for Navarro and Norris would be sensible. However I don't expect Dejesus can handle that, especially on turf. He'd be only good for a lefty DH and 5th OF if the team needed that.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 02:59 PM EST (#296216) #

"Rivera pitched with a career leverage of about 1.8; WAR does not account for this"

actually, it does, or at least it tries to.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 03:18 PM EST (#296217) #

It's a nice example of the difference between BBRef's WAR and Fangraph's WAR. BBRef's does adjust for leverage; fangraphs' doesn't. I was thinking fangraphs. You can see that Mariano Rivera has 40.2 career fWAR and 56.6 career bWAR. The majority of the difference is due to BBRef's account for leverage. Wade Davis had 3.1 fWAR and 3.7bWAR last year. Accounting for leverage is basically the difference

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 03:36 PM EST (#296218) #

its pretty interesting the people seem to value norris over hutchison.

Age 19

Hutch (A-/A): 68.2ip, 8.3k/9, 2.5bb/9, 2.49era, 3.17fip
Norris (Rk/A-): 42.2ip, 9.1k/9, 3.8bb/9, 8.44era, 4.25fip

Age 20

Hutch (A/A+/AA): 149.1ip, 10.3k/9, 2.1bb/9, 2.53era, 2.32fip
Norris (A/A+): 90.2ip, 9.9k/9, 4.6bb/9, 3.97era, 3.88fip

Age 21

Hutch (AA): 16.2ip, 6.5k/9, 1.6bb/9, 2.166era, 3.08fip
Norris (A+/AA/AAA): 124.2ip, 11.8k/9, 3.1bb/9, 2.53era, 2.57fip

Hutch (MLB): 58.2ip, 7.5k/9, 3.1bb/9, 4.60era, 4.48fip, 4.03xfip, 4.09siera
Norris (MLB): 6.2ip, 5.4k/9, 6.8bb/9, 5.40era, 6.13fip, 5.85xfip, 5.95siera

Age 22

Hutch (A+/AA/AAA): 35.1ip, 10.7k/9, 3.6bb/9, 4.84era, 3.13fip

Age 23

Hutch (MLB): 184.2ip, 9.0k/9, 2.9bb/9, 4.48era, 3.85fip, 3.82xfip, 3.59siera

and hutch throws harder and with better command than norris.

i hope people don't think hutch is expendable just because his ERA was completely out of whack with the rest of his numbers in his first full season in mlb at age 23, coming off of tj.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 03:44 PM EST (#296219) #

Jevant - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 03:51 PM EST (#296220) #

I was sorta assuming that Infante would be cheap, and would cost you a much lower-tier prospect compared to Norris. But I certainly generally agree with "get the elite talent" and figure out the prospects later.

That said, I am more and more convinced that the budget is certainly not going to be in the 150 range as discussed by some reporters early in offseason. I wouldn't be shocked if we end up lower than what it was last year.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 03:55 PM EST (#296221) #

Would it make sense for the Jays to try to get Trevor Cahill for Dioner Navarro? Given how expensive Cahill's contract is (12M), the Snakes just might. They need a Navarro as much as anyone.

It appears Cahill had some rotten luck last year but has never been an especially reliable option. Sort of a right handed JA Happ. He'll be 27 next year and has two team options that could be abandoned if he can't perform this year. His splits suggest he needs to avoid LH hitters but maybe the Jays can hope to correct that. Perhaps all Cahill needs is a Russell Martin. Or perhaps the AL East will chew him up and spit him out.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:02 PM EST (#296222) #

Perhaps this team needs more Canadians. Morneau for Navarro and Delabar.

raptorsaddict - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:10 PM EST (#296223) #

Count me out on trading Hutch. I think his upside is a #2-3 starter whose stuff is better than I remember or expected. As a control pitcher, I think he'll benefit more than most from Martin framing his pitches.

I'd prefer they spread the cash out over 2-3 guys, which means re-signing the undervalued Casey Jansen (18 million over 3yrs? And definitely backloaded). Add in free agent reliever X (Axford, Motte, Grilli, Gregorson, etc.). And then a reliever for Navarro and you're good to go.

Many here bemoaned losing Sam Dyson for nothing, and that might be coming back to bite us now. His 179 ERA+ over 42 innings last year would look pretty good out there in the pen.

raptorsaddict - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:12 PM EST (#296224) #

I'd take Morneau for Navarro any day of the week.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:13 PM EST (#296225) #

actually mike fangraphs does credit leverage but just not as much. the argument is that the replacement player for those leverage innings isn't an AAAA callup, but rather the 2nd best reliever in the 'pen. so because of the relief "chain", the replacement value for relief pitchers is higher than for other players, those lowering their war. but they do include leverage. of course which system is better is open for debate.

An increased replacement level for relief pitchers does not address leverage at all, unless I am missing something. It lowers WAR for all relief pitchers, whether they have a leverage of 0.3 or 2.0. That addresses the relative ease of relief pitching as compared with starting pitching. It does not address the importance of situations when it comes to relief pitching.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:16 PM EST (#296226) #

It's Norris' K rate and the stuff that accompanies it which makes prospect-watchers salivate.

melondough - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:23 PM EST (#296227) #

"Would it make sense for the Jays to try to get Trevor Cahill for Dioner Navarro? Given how expensive Cahill's contract is (12M), the Snakes just might. They need a Navarro as much as anyone."

I would much rather have Liriano for $13M/year (as he signed today with Pittsburgh) then have them trade for the $12M Cahill. They didn't go after Liriano for that price so I can't see them being interested in the less talented Cahill at just $1M savings. You would have to think he would jump to pitch to Martin again this year. In fact, it would not surprise me if he were one of the calls AA said he received from a number of pitchers (well their agents) once the Jays signed Martin.

As for Morneau, he would be a massive upgrade and at only $7.5M and Cdn, well that would be just grand. Though they better get some more pitching.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:31 PM EST (#296228) #

Understood, the price for Infante would be cheap. I think KC would hope to just dump the salary as they want to get out of some buyer's remorse after seeing Infante last year.

I also don't understand how high the expectations can be for Norris at this time. He was a strikeout machine for a handful of starts last August in AAA Buffalo. Before that he had some tough games in AA New Hampshire, still striking guys out. How much is a high strikeout rate over 57 innings of AA/AAA portend of quality Major League pitcher? I can't imagine the Jays using him as even an emergency starter this year. Don't rush this guy. If he can handle a full year of AAA and succeed, call him up for September. Maybe he's gotten advice recently that changes everything for him that allows him to skip further minor league development?

I also don't comprehend how fast Aaron Sanchez is being rushed from looking at his minor league numbers. If anyone can explain why I'm such a fool not to see how these kids are ready for greatness as SP in majors, please help. I get that they are very talented but all I see is they are very young and have more risk in rushing them than rushing will help them. The results and lack of experience at higher levels don't scream to me they are ready. Yes, Norris had 23 great innings at AAA and Sanchez had 33 stupendous innings in the big show. Are they really ready yet for a full season at the higher levels is my question.

PeterG - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:31 PM EST (#296229) #

another possible deal with Snakes could be Navarro and Izturis for Hill.....does seem like a possible match up between 2 teams whether for pitcher or infielder

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:32 PM EST (#296230) #

hutch's k rates have been every bit as impressive as norris', except hutch also included grest bb rates along with it.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:36 PM EST (#296231) #

"An increased replacement level for relief pitchers does not address leverage at all, unless I am missing something. It lowers WAR for all relief pitchers, whether they have a leverage of 0.3 or 2.0. That addresses the relative ease of relief pitching as compared with starting pitching. It does not address the importance of situations when it comes to relief pitching. "

however you want to phrase it. either way, fwar does include leverage, but does not credit that entire leverage to that rp, since the replacement player for that leverage situation is the next best rp, not an aaaa callup.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:42 PM EST (#296232) #

geoff i'm with you on sanchez and norris, i have no problem with them starting in aaa and being our first injury fill ins if they're pitching well, and i don't hate the idea of them being relievers for us this year....but sticking either of them in the rotation to start the year is a mistake, imo.

particularly with Sanchez, who i see as having too many similarities to Drabek in performance and treatment for my liking.

that's why for now i'm convincing myself that estrada is pencilled in as our #5. i don't see him as a downgrade from happ anyways.

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 04:59 PM EST (#296233) #

I too, as I have said before, am of the opinion that Hutchison is well placed to be quite a bit better this year than last. I expect that he especially will benefit from Martin's catching and throwing abilities. I also agree that neither Sanchez nor Norris ought to be in the major league rotation at the start of the year.

dan gordon - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:04 PM EST (#296234) #

I think a lot of people are forgetting just how good Hutchison was prior to being called up in 2012. He had only made 16 starts above Lansing when called up, and in hindsight it was maybe a bit premature. His numbers in 2012 weren't great at the mlb level, then he got hurt and missed all of 2013, and then there was last year's inconsistent season and ERA in the mid 4's. However, his minor league numbers were consistently outstanding, including an amazing total K/BB ratio of 246/57. Now that he's another year removed from TJ, I think we'll start to see more of the guy who was so dominant prior to the call up in 2012. He's still just 24.

China fan - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:08 PM EST (#296235) #

A lot of people have focused on Sanchez's minor-league command problems, and have cited it as evidence that he can't thrive as a starter in 2015. I agree that it's a bit of a gamble to throw him into the rotation at the age of 22, but I also think there's a good chance that the Jays might be right when they assess that he's ready for the rotation. You can't assess him purely on his minor-league walk numbers, since he might be one of those constantly improving pitchers whose MLB numbers will surpass his minor-league performance. Possible evidence for this viewpoint: a) he's always been young for his level; b) Buffalo pitching coach Randy St. Claire helped him make a significant mechanical adjustment to his throwing motion after he reached Buffalo; c) his major-league BB numbers were dramatically reduced in comparison to his minor-league numbers; d) you can't attribute his improved command simply to his relief role in the majors, since he was often throwing 2 innings per outing (even 3 innings in one case), which suggests that he was maintaining the low BB rate over multiple innings (if not yet over a full start).

Of course I agree that there's no guarantee that Sanchez is ready for the rotation. I've been as cautious as anyone, and I would definitely hope that the Jays acquire some further rotation depth, beyond Estrada, in case Sanchez is not ready. But I'm willing to at least consider the possibility that the Jays evaluation of him is correct, and that he genuinely improved his command during the last half of 2014 and could continue to have relatively low BB numbers as a starter.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:12 PM EST (#296236) #

I'm not just saying that Norris and Sanchez shouldn't start the year in the majors. I'm saying I don't think they should be expected to be seen in Toronto for any reason at all before September, provided their development goes smoothly.

Maybe I'm too conservative, but I'd want them both starting in AAA from April through August, no questions asked. See how they do. Let them learn a thing or two or four. If one of them is really, really looking proven, maybe give them a taste in the August. Don't give them hope of rushing any faster. Don't do it out of desperation because Dickey or Buehrle or Hutchison are injured. Don't let them be forced into a spot. Have them earn it, have them show that they can start games at AAA, handle the rigors and all the distractions. They might not be ready to do even that this year.

If they have good years at AAA, then you can talk about them getting a shot in ST 2016. If you're going to make them starters you have to go slower I think. If they are to be relievers you can speed things up development wise, but don't rush starting pitchers. Sanchez looked great as a reliever in the second half last year. It may be that is the best role for him, as he hasn't shown to be that successful a starter yet professionally. He is only 22 so he has plenty of time to prove that he can be a starter. But don't rush that, not one bit.

jerjapan - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:20 PM EST (#296237) #

ChinaFan, AA certainly agrees with your take - I forget the source but I read comments recently where he felt Sanchez had turned a corner on some mechanical changs that he'd been working on. With those changes mastered, AA feels that his lower walk rates will continue wherever he pitches.

I'd love for him not to be needed to start the year with the Jays so we can manage his control time, but if he's our best option, we need to

I think of Juan Guzman, who walked 42 batters in 67 AAA innings when we called him up in 91 - he still walked too many guys, but was elite the rest of the season and contributed significantly to both of our WS wins.

China fan - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:23 PM EST (#296238) #

Why should we assume that it is "rushing him" if Sanchez becomes a major-league starter at the age of 22 or nearly 23? Plenty of pitchers have become MLB regulars at the age of 22 or 23. There's nothing inherently wrong with it. It depends on the pitcher. The only evidence used against Sanchez is his minor-league BB rate. Yet that too isn't necessarily proof that he must necessarily have the same problem in the majors. He was dominant for 33 innings in the majors in the final months of 2014, and that's a pretty good indicator that he might be ready. He is improving fast.

The Jays, clearly, were concerned that Sanchez might have command problems in the majors, but they were much less concerned after his mechanical adjustment in Buffalo. As noted by Jerjapan above, AA has addressed the issue himself -- and despite his biases, I don't think we should entirely dismiss this evaluation without our own evidence to the contrary. Here are AA's words, quoted by Shi Davidi, describing the effect of the change in his mechanics in Buffalo last year:

With his arm slot up, "his sinker was a bowling ball, his curveball was outstanding, his changeup was outstanding. I remember coming back (from a trip to Buffalo) and telling (John Gibbons), �What I�m seeing in these last three or four outings, he�s as good as any starter we have currently.� That�s how good he looked."
Before calling him up in early July, the Blue Jays debated whether Sanchez would throw enough strikes. With only nine walks in 33 innings, he did, and now he needs to keep it going. "I felt very, very confident that with the adjustment he made, that unlocked the command of his fastball," says Anthopoulos. "That doesn�t mean he�s never going to walk anybody, he�s still going to walk some guys. But that change was huge. �"
"You�d think, in theory, why would he be better going up a level? There was a tangible change. It wasn�t �I feel better, I�m getting better game-calling.� There was a tangible change they had worked on. It progressively got better."

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:47 PM EST (#296239) #

I agree the age is fairly arbitrary. There is no telling what age a pitcher is ready to reach the highest level: 22, 24, 28. The only thing to examine is how well prepared the person is to handle the workload that a SP in the majors must endure. It is an enormous endurance test. Physically, and psychologically. One has to be ready for adapting to those challenges.

I had read those quotes by Alex on the change Sanchez had with arm slot. I get that's why he has such a marked difference in performance arriving at MLB. I get why this is why hopes have sped up for him to contribute at the ML level. If they plan to keep Sanchez in the bullpen I would understand. You can pick spots and bail a guy out easier when he's a reliever. It's easier to develop at the ML level if he's a reliever in a way you can't if he's a starter. If they gave him a spot start or two to push him along, I'd understand. But I wouldn't want to see him made a full time starter at any point this year. There have been guys who developed as full time relievers and the next year became full time starters. I can fathom that process working for Sanchez, maybe even Norris. I can't see them jumping into a full time SP role at any point this season without having gone through a full season at a level above Dunedin as starting pitchers. It seems far too rushed for these kids, or anyone similar.

To take another case, Yordano Ventura spent all of 2013 developing as a starter in AA/AAA before arriving in 2014. Now, I'd be worried about him throwing 208 innings including postseason last year but I hope they kept good sense in evaluating his individual ability. These electric young arms shouldn't be foolishly handled. The risks outweigh the rewards. If you don't hurt them physically, you can hurt them psychologically by pushing too hard.

melondough - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 05:53 PM EST (#296240) #

Any interest in Dee Gordon among the posters here? Apparently being made available. You think that would be a good fit for 2B opening and AA's self proclaimed search for SB?

He struck out a respectable 107 in 650 PA last year and used his speed towards getting 24 doubles and 12 triples. Though he walked just 34 times I would be happy with Gordon and his $2.5M expected salary on 2B in 2015. He would also be able to relieve Reyes at SS which is where he played all of 2013 before taking over the 2B gig full time last year.

He's 26 and a FA after the 2019 season. What is it that LAD would want and more importantly what would we be willing to trade. Could they use Navarro?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/dodgers-open-to-trading-dee-gordon.html

bpoz - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 06:12 PM EST (#296241) #

You cannot win them all. D Farquhar... both AA & Beane had him but it was Seattle that got his value.

Sam Dyson, a waste. S Nolin, a reasonable prospect but 2 options wasted on basically no ML opportunity.
Graveman & Norris, more than likely burn an option in 2015 but hopefully not in the 1st month. If so more waste.
C Jenkins, he could have been used more on a pitching challenged team. I will admit that his injury factored into his under utilization.
Asset acquisition and development, go hand in hand IMO.

I think "patience" is a virtue.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 06:58 PM EST (#296242) #

I think of Juan Guzman, who walked 42 batters in 67 AAA innings when we called him up in 91 - he still walked too many guys, but was elite the rest of the season and contributed significantly to both of our WS wins.

Yes, Juan Guzman. The memories. There's a guy who taxed himself pretty hard physically and had a short but spectacular career for it. 92 and 93 were made ever brighter by his presence. But the year that I remember most of Juan's is 1996. He had an unbelievable year and it was so unexpected where he found it in himself. Of course he hurt himself after tossing a 9-inning duel with Alex Fernandez that ended his season. The game ended in the 11th after Spoljaric walked the first two batters and Mike Timlin was brought on to find a spectacular way to lose the game through wild pitches. (can't remember if I started despising Timlin before or at this game).

Regardless, Guzman's name got me thinking of that 1996 team and the unbelievable atrociousness of its pitching staff as assembled by one ass named Gord Ash.

They were quite the bunch. Led by the Cy Young-calibre effort of the mercurial Pat Hentgen throwing 265 innings (because the bullpen really needed to be saved for everybody else if this was going to resemble a professional ballclub), they followed Pat and Juan to great heights of second last in the division (thanks even more unbelievably bad 1996 Detroit Tigers who had nobody who resembled a Major League pitcher -- seriously, Jose Lima was probably the most talented of the bunch -- Jose Lima!) and had Gord Ash given Cito a pitching staff there might have been a good reason to enjoy that season.

Carlos Delgado had his breakout year. Shawn Green had his sophomore season of struggling under Cito. Ed Sprague and Joe Carter were still hitting home runs at a decent clip. John Olerud was still only 27. Otis Nixon was somehow stealing 54 bases at 37. It was an interesting team, if it weren't for the terrible fact that you didn't want to watch anyone pitch not named Hentgen or Guzman.

In the prior offseason, the Jays had signed Erik Hanson to a nicely sized contract (three years, $10 million! -- he's rich!) for the time and made him the all important Opening Day starter to lead the franchise to new success. Long story short he sucked and looked nothing like the all star the year prior. But as nobody else could pitch, so Erik gave the Jays 215 innings in 1996 to the tune of a 5.41 ERA. And he was perhaps the most valuable contributor behind Hentgen and Guzman.

The team also thought wise to let Paul Quantrill be a starting pitcher. This was a worse idea than letting Erik Hanson pitch every fifth day. Wisely, Paul became a reliever and would never start again, enjoying 9 mostly successful seasons as a reliever after 1996. Starting is not for everyone.

Woody Williams got his first taste of starting in 1996 at the age of 29, and his mediocre work was a welcome sight to my eyes when it meant I didn't have to see the other guys pitch. It was time Williams got into his career as a starting pitcher as he went on to contribute 11 more seasons as a starting pitcher in the majors, some of them quite exceptional and none of them as poor as the other members of the 1996 staff not named Hentgen or Guzman.

Which gets me around to talking about the guy I really wanted to focus on: Marty Janzen. For those of you who couldn't or don't remember, Janzen was the main return from the NYY when Toronto for some reason traded David Cone to their division rivals in 1995. Janzen was a promising young prospect in 1995. He arrived to the Jays and assigned to AA and acquitted himself quite well. In 1996, the Jays and the wisdom of Gord Ash observed as Janzen was struggling to adapt to life in AAA in April. And seeing as they didn't have many options that resembled starting pitchers on the ball club that was screaming for them, they called up the kid with promise, Marty Janzen in May. On May 12 to be precise. This was as a followup to letting Frank Viola start three games to an ERA of 12.15.

I highlight the story of Janzen to say: let not this club turn Sanchez or Norris into the next Marty Janzen. Who knows if Marty could have developed into a Major League starting pitcher had he gone through a more patient and prudent development process. He pitched in three games in May 1996 (the first two as a reliever) and came out as the victor in all three for a 3-0 record. Then, well.... then I would say he was unprepared for the task of being a starting pitcher at that level. You could argue that jumping up his pitch counts as they had from those first three games was stupid (43, 64, 106) and you'd be right. Then letting him continue to throw high pitch counts when he was clearly struggling. Well, blame Cito I suppose. The point is the kid wasn't prepared for that big a test. He had never pitched more than a month at AAA as a SP. He had a great year in 1995 in A+/AA but that didn't mean he was ready.

Don't produce another Janzen.

Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:00 PM EST (#296243) #

Gordon's salary, speed, solid OBP, ability to play 2B, and, just as much, ability to slide to SS when Reyes needs rest/makes his inevitable (sure hope I'm wrong) trip to the DL are definitely interesting. And I believe the Dodgers would be interested in Navarro, unless Grandal is a sure thing in a Kemp deal.
What's Gordon's defensive reputation at both MI spots?
Would lineup construction be an issue with he and Reyes on board? I know batting order is overrated by the casual baseball media/fan, and I'm certainly no expert on it, just seems rare that a team has two guys like that. Maybe more of a concern for a lack of power, than for batting order, but Jose, EE, and Donaldson would certainly help make up for that.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:03 PM EST (#296244) #

Ah, forgot I wanted to close with: don't bring Marty back to the future.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:13 PM EST (#296245) #

Gordon would be a great fit, although I'd expect LAD would want quite the return. What do you trade to the team that can buy anything?

I'm not sure you can avoid trading Sanchez or Norris, plus Hoffman if they believe in him and maybe something else. Gordon won't be cheap after his season last year. His defense had been poor but much improved at 2B. Questionable arm for SS. But controllable for four years and that unreal speed.

jerjapan - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:14 PM EST (#296246) #

fun read Geoff! that was a truly awful time in Jays fandom.

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 07:34 PM EST (#296247) #

If it saved money for a quality free agent SP to be signed this offseason that wouldn't otherwise be there, I'd see if the Dodgers would take Jose Reyes for Gordon and Darwin Barney. Let Barney, Gordon, Izturis and Goins play things out to settle MI and at least sign someone like McCarthy with the savings on Reyes (although Scherzer would be a lovely pipe dream).

MrPurple - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 08:04 PM EST (#296249) #

Is Ryan Howard's career over? It seems to me he is a left handed bat that could come to life in the DH spot, whether it's with the Jays or someone else. I am sure the Phillies would have to eat a huge chunk of cash but looking at those numbers from a few years back...oh my...I just have not heard his name mentioned very much and was wondering why?

Geoff - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 08:13 PM EST (#296250) #

To throw in another case of a Jays starting pitcher who was rushed too quickly through AAA and perhaps didn't have the proper preparedness, you need look no further than the top of the page. He hadn't started but 8 games as a starting pitcher in AAA before being thrust into a Major League role, and he learned on the job and progressed in three consecutive season with better numbers than the year prior as a Jay.

And then the wheels fell off. Control problems that were stepped around became unavoidable. The arm that had been so electric was betraying him and he didn't know how to work through it.

He was aggressively pushed and wasted. They got significant innings from him. But what could have been?

He's not getting his option picked up next year I imagine.

AA/AAA development is important. Madison Bumgarner started (and dominated) 19 games at AA and another 14 at AAA before becoming a starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. Kershaw made the jump after just 16 starts of dominating AA hitters at the age of 20. Norris has started all of 12 games between AA/AAA. He hasn't exactly mastered them either -- not that he must. But he could use a season to work on the craft -- at least. Sanchez has just 20 starts between AA/AAA and they look rather pedestrian on the surface. Yes, he got some great advice upon his call up to AAA. He needs to use that, spend his time at AAA as a starter with that development.

Or else what? Or more Romero.

MrPurple - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 08:30 PM EST (#296251) #

By that rational we are best to trade Sanchez and Norris and go get Cole Hammels, though it may take more then that.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 09:30 PM EST (#296252) #

Once a guy has been in the majors for a couple of years and had success (including an All-Star game) it seems silly to say future issues are due to not getting enough time in AA/AAA.

You want rushed? Check for guys who took a long time to 'figure it out' in the majors. Travis Snider certainly falls into that category, Lloyd Moseby (first 3 years he had OPS+ in the 70's then never below an 89 after that) too. Sean Nolan in 2013 was a sign of it (1 game then demoted and never brought back up...total waste of an option). That is a very strong indicator they were rushed. Succeeding for multiple seasons and then having issues is not a sign of rushed at all.

Sanchez in 2014 showed he can compete in the majors in the bullpen without much doubt. Can he do the same in the rotation? No idea but it certainly isn't crazy to give him a shot at earning the role. Graveman was super-rushed this year, but I wonder if AA was trying to take advantage of a hot hand and make someone else go 'I want him' and given he was used in a trade he might have been right to do so.

Was Stroman rushed? 11 1/3 in A ball, 119 2/3 in AA, 35 2/3 in AAA and now in the majors. But I don't hear anyone saying 'give him more experience in the minors'. Norris had just shy of 200 IP in A/rookie, then just 35 2/3 in AA and 22 2/3 in AAA. Both went quick but is that too little? I don't think so. The rule with pitchers is if they can get ML hitters out then you get them up here ASAP before their arm blows out.

A classic for rushing is Dwight Gooden, but his first 3 years (19-21) he was over 200 IP each year, some injuries year 4 (179 2/3 IP still), 248 IP year 5, injured year 6 (117 IP), then 4 years with 190+ IP. So 10 years in and he only had one really lost year (but over 100 IP still). A safe bet that spending no time in AA/AAA before reaching didn't hurt him one bit. That 248 IP year after some injuries was dumb and probably hurt him year 6 but the next 4 suggest he was still pretty good & healthy.

Can a player be rushed too much? Yes. But if they are the results show up year 1 or 2, not years 4 & 5.

melondough - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 10:41 PM EST (#296253) #

Griffin has shed some light on the strategy Anthopoulos is employing. He writes: "GM Alex Anthopoulous has targeted pitchers especially with five-plus years of league service. Also he would trade catcher Dionar Navarro if such a move helped the team....The Jays believe that within two years, the starting rotation will be overflowing with pitchers from within the organization".

He points out that they are looking to trade for a short-term starter and possibly a solid reliever who will be a FA next year. Griffin says there is an "impressive and affordable list of such pitchers" that AA says they "can't line up value on right now".

Griffin notes that there are 21 such starters in the majors which meet the short term window criteria. He names Latos ($7.25M), Fister ($4.7M), Porcello ($8.5M), Ian Kennedy ($6.1M), Price, Zimmerman, Guthrie, Colon, Kazmir, Leake Jh.Chacin and Tyler Clippard as examples.

I am guessing he would have his best chance with Latos or Leake since the Reds are trying to shed payroll.

melondough - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 10:43 PM EST (#296254) #

Sorry I forgot to add the link to my last post.
http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2014/12/09/pitching_help_high_on_jays_wish_list_griffin.html

dan gordon - Tuesday, December 09 2014 @ 11:45 PM EST (#296255) #

I'm not particularly interested in Dee Gordon. His defensive numbers don't look great, and he's not much of a hitter. Career OPS of .658. Looking at his AAA hitting stats, he played in a hitters' park in a great hitters' league, and had a reasonably large number of AB's there in both 2011 and 2013. He showed no improvement in his OPS from 2011 to 2013, and the .780ish number he produced, in that environment, does not indicate a lot of offensive upside. Yes, he stole 64 bases last year, but he was caught 19 times, a 77% success rate. That has some value, but if you take a 2/3 success rate as break-even, which would be 55 steals in his 83 attempts, then his positive contribution was 9 steals. Prior to last season, he had 66 steals with 19 CS, so the success rate was consistent with previous years.

Last year's OPS, at .704 was his best, at age 26, and perhaps he can duplicate that, maybe even improve it a bit in a better hitting environment than Dodger Stadium. His road OPS for his career is 28 points better than at home.

I would be interested in knowing what the consensus is here about Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris. If you had to rank them in order, according to how good a career each will have, how would people be ranking them?

JB21 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:27 AM EST (#296256) #

Lester signs with the Cubs. 6 years 155 million. He apparently turned down 167 million over 7 from the Giants. Red Sox 'only' offered 135 milli.

The Cubs will be pretty fun to watch in 2015.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:35 AM EST (#296257) #

I understand if there isn't agreement on Romero's trouble coming from moving too fast through the minors. But I believe it was. I'd gather that his trouble was more mental than physical and that a slower development could have helped in that department. I also have a guess that his contract extension signing away his arb years was a heavy regret from him after his successful 2011 season.

I don't know that of course. It's very speculative to say that contract ever weighed on his mind. But I don't think it was outside of his vision how much a club friendly contract he committed himself to, where his incentives were very low to be successful for the next four years and his compensation was far below market value. And I expect many around him, teammates and opponents, contemporaries, friends, fans of the game, would have highlighted this for him. You could say he's the type of guy who wouldn't think twice about that sort of thing. But I think that would take a more exceptional and rare person than the more common one who would let that weigh on him.

So I guess I'm blaming his rushed path to the majors as the cause for him to take a well below market deal that any agent should have prevented him from taking, but one which someone -- who knows if Ricky or his agent --- was eager to get signed. There is a psychological part of this game that swallows players up and I absolutely believe their early development is key to helping them get through the tough times, or leaving them to drown. They may succeed for a few weeks, a few months or a few years. But sustained success, which every organization should hope to achieve with the young players it develops, is the hallmark of players who are well developed physically and mentally to take on the long race of an MLB season, year after year.

Sure, it's easy to say in hindsight that this player wasn't ready cause look how he failed. There is no one formula for time to develop that fits all. But if a player is not meeting his potential yet, you don't push him too far forward. Give him a window into his future, then let him fulfill his promise, prove himself at his craft before setting him free in the deepest waters. Kyle Drabek should never have been a regular in 2011 or 2012. I think part of why in that case is the belief that he could never develop in the launching pad that was AAA Las Vegas, so he was pushed into the majors after failing in AAA. Would he have been better off in the long run if he never experienced the failure he had at AAA? I think so. Was he ready for Toronto at that time? Not necessarily. It's a complicated and individual evaluation. It's worth repeating that it's very complicated. He may yet put things together, perhaps now as a reliever. Maybe after that a starter. Nothing is impossible, but the biggest hurdles are the psychological ones. They are also the most complicated, and get harder to overcome with age -- just like the physical hurdles.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:40 AM EST (#296258) #

ha red sox.

(though that is an awful, awful contract)

still...ha red sox.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:45 AM EST (#296259) #

If I was Lester, I would value the AAV of extra $2 million/year in Cubs offer over the Giants. Plus the Cubs have a stronger looking future than the very successful of recent years Giants.

Poor Boston, whatever will they do now? This has got to be the wildest offseason league wide since I don't know when. Is there any tally on the number of trades this year compared to history? Seems like there has been and will be far more than usual.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 02:17 AM EST (#296261) #

thing with romero is that he wasn't rushed. they left him in AA for years and he didn't improve at all. he was 23, in his third year of AA, and was just getting worse - he had a 4.96era, 5.8k/9, 4.1bb/9 - he didn't even look like a prospect at that point. it was pretty much a last ditch effort to salvage something when they decided to challenge him with the big promotion, and he just took off instantly when they did it.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 03:31 AM EST (#296262) #

Just the act of putting a player at higher level of the minors doesn't mean he is progressing in his development, or proving to anyone that he is handling it with aplomb.

As I said earlier, if a player is not meeting his potential yet, you don't push him too far forward. Give him a window into his future, then let him fulfill his promise, prove himself at his craft before setting him free.

Pushing a player ahead at the first sign that he is clicking with a new stage in his development is foolhardy. They did it with Romero and they would be doing it with Sanchez I believe if they ran with him as a starter without letting him spend a few months showing he can handle AAA as a starter at his advanced development stage. The rush to get him in there while his odometer has started to tick away, losing value during his development time that could be spent at the ML level is why some teams are better at developing players than others, in my opinion. The better ones I would argue don't concern themselves with the extra months it may take for a player to show he has the preparation he needs. Injuries and need at the major league level don't dictate the development process. The player's readiness dictates the development process.

Some players you may get tired of waiting for them to fulfill their potential. Some will never get there in the minors. Some will never get there in the majors. Some may have never had the promise that was imagined for them. But being impatient I would argue is a more certain path to failure in player development whenever it arises. Organizations that have more success will let their players meet with success and take a more deliberate approach that won't look like rushing a player at the first sign of promise appearing.

Perhaps whatever happened to Romero could have happened whether he had spent a year in the minors establishing himself or not. We'll never know. Perhaps Janzen or Drabek was going to be a disaster no matter how each was handled through minor league development. We can't truly know for sure. We can guess what should have been done, and we can try to find patterns across very different cases. Romero is but one case, unique unto himself.

pooks137 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:09 AM EST (#296263) #

As it pertains to rushing young pitchers, there is a school of thought suggesting that each pitcher's arm only has some sort of unknown quota of pitches/innings thrown/wear-and-tear before it breaks down.

If you subscribe to the notion, the theory continues that as soon as you believe a prospect could be ready to pitch in the MLB, you might as well bring him up to use those innings before he gets hurts instead of wasting them in the minors

Of course, no one really has a firm grasp on pitching injuries, and nothing that anyone has tried has really worked to prevent them.

If you are a true nihilist, I can see an argument for a use-them-before-you-lose-them approach to pitching prospects

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:41 AM EST (#296264) #

Since this is a winter-meetings thread, let me mention some of today's rumors: according to Bob Elliott and others, the Jays might be pursuing free-agent starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy (who might command $35-million to $40-million over 3 years) and relief pitchers Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson. Neshek might be obtainable for $10-million over two years. Thoughts?

pooks137 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 08:32 AM EST (#296265) #

I'm perfectly fine with Neshek at 2/10. Pen needs RH relievers. I prefer shorter terms for relievers.

Obviously some risk with age and career year last year, but even if Neshek is a bust, the contract is equivalent to about one contract year of any of the upper tiers of guys (Miller, Robertson, Gregerson, etc) and you can easily eat it if he implodes.

Gerry - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 08:49 AM EST (#296266) #

I have been thinking that Brandon McCarthy would be a good signing for the Jays for a few weeks now. The Jays will not get the top tier starters and they have traded some assets already so a major trade for a starter is less likely. Therefore they need to sign a free agent starter for depth. McCarthy is one of the best second tier starters available.

scottt - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 08:54 AM EST (#296267) #

The Jays have not developed many position players lately, but they have done quite well with the pitchers. Most pitchers eventually run into issues in the majors, that's just baseball. Romero didn't stop throwing strikes after a few good seasons because he didn't spent enough time at AA. That's complete nonsense.

I agree that Henderson Alvarez needed some time to work on his secondary stuff. It looks like the Marlins gave him 8 games at 3 different levels, might have been rehab. Not sure those 8 games made any difference but he now strikes out 5 per games which does make a difference. He seemed to have improved in the majors.

pooks137 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:30 AM EST (#296268) #

Henderson Alvarez's career path doesn't make any sense to me, at least looking purely at stats. Even though he has had success in Miami and is cheap and controllable, I'm still okay with the Jays unloading him since he seems to be walking a fine line.

Even with his good movement and velocity, he hardly struck out anyone in the minors. He was young for his levels, but never averaged more than 7.0 K/9.

Now in the majors, he's sitting close to 5.0 K/9, which is usually close to the breaking point. He seems to get by with good GB rates, low BB rates and limiting HRs. Seems like walking a tight rope that could go really bad with a push in the wrong direction.

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:31 AM EST (#296269) #

McCarthy's a decent pitcher. Career ERA a bit over 4, but he's spent a fair bit of time in hitters' parks like Arizona and Texas. The 2 years he spent in Oakland, in a pitchers' park, his ERA was in the low 3's. I wouldn't want to go very long term with him, but for a reasonably priced 3 year deal, I think he would be OK.

Neshek at 2/10 I think is OK, as long as they don't intend for him to close. You've got to protect him against lefties, and with Loup and Cecil, they can do that. I'd be very cautious about Gregerson. His numbers are very inflated by pitching in San Diego. It's like signing a guy who's been a hitter for Colorado. I suspect that Gregerson is going to get a contract that his employer will ultimately regret.

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:32 AM EST (#296270) #

I've been hoping for a Pat Neshek signing all off season, and 2 years at 5 million per is the number being repeated. Go for it.

Gregerson has a great track record, but pitching in Oakland and SD vs. the Skydome is a concern.

Both guys are of the second-tier, come in and compete for the closer role type that might represent the best value on the market.

Not crazy about McCarthy at those numbers - thats what Pittsburgh resigned Liriano for, who was a much more appealing target. I do think second tier QO guys are likely a good target for us with our first pick already gone. Ervin Santana at Liriano money, with maybe a 4th year?

Gerry - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:32 AM EST (#296271) #

Gregerson is off the market, three year deal with the Astros.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:42 AM EST (#296272) #

Brandon McCarthy would be great. Pat Neshek would be OK. I doubt that the club has the money for either acquisition. I anticipate that the Red Sox will be interested in McCarthy and the chance of him comng cheap is small.

melondough - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:14 AM EST (#296274) #

Jon Heyman reports that Neshek goes with Gregerson to Houston. Both are now off the market. AA has never paid more than $4.5M/year for a reliever and given out only one contract of over 2 years to a RP (to Janssen). I don't see that changing now.

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:21 AM EST (#296275) #

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:48 AM EST (#296276) #

not upset at all that we didn't sign those rp. maybe we've adjusted our sights as fans but we have to rememebr that $5-6m on multi year contracts for extremely questionable rp arms is still crazy. these guys don't even look as good as the likes of cordero, dotel, lightenberg, etc. looked when we signed them.

i'm also on board with mccarthy as a great bargain signing......IF he is still cheap enough to be a bargain. his fip and xfip have been very good for years now, and his 4.05era last year came with a totally unsustainably high 16.3hr/fb% - i.e. he was very unlucky.

but he has to be a bargain....if his salary starts creeping much above $10m and the years much more than 2, it becomes a very risky signing.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:59 AM EST (#296277) #

Pitchers are much easier to project than hitters, which is why they can seemingly be "rushed" and have success. Pitchers don't have to make split-second decisions the way hitters do. They "just" have to repeat a series of precise motions. A pitching coach or talent evaluator can watch a pitcher and judge whether he can succeed, may succeed or probably won't succeed. Also, once they reach the majors, video scouting of opponents (which I believe isn't used much in the minors) can attack hitters much more easily than pitchers.

I couldn't disagree more. You can take any evaluator who relies heavily on scouting and ask them to project pitchers and hitters. If they project 500 single A pitchers and 500 single A hitters, it's a guarantee that they will do better with the hitters. The same applies by the way to evaluators who rely heavily on performance measures. It doesn't matter whether you look at historical Baseball America lists or historical John Sickels projections, everyone does better with hitters than pitchers.

There is a reason that you may "rush" a pitcher even if you are more uncertain than you might be about a position player of equivalent talent. You alluded to it. Health. On the one hand, you want the pitcher to learn as much as possible in the minor leagues, and on the other hand, you don't want to have the pitcher wear down his arm and throw his best innings in double or triple A. With Sale, the White Sox decided to let him do his learning in the major league pen in 2010 and 2011 (for a total of 94 innings). This worked out swimmingly, and I think is a pretty good strategy. With Quintana, the Sox threw him into the rotation after 9 double A starts, it worked but that is by far the exception. The number of pitchers who have been tried in the rotation after less than 10 high minors starts and no bullpen experience is large. The number who have succeeded is very small. Tim Lincecum absolutely dominated the high minors for 11 starts (ERA under 1) and made it. Roger Clemens was almost as dominant for 13 high minors starts and made it.

Lylemcr - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 11:06 AM EST (#296278) #

I hate trading for closers. In so many cases, they seem to be flashes in the pan. To be honest, it is one of the most over-rated positions.

Sign a couple veterans releivers, one good one (like a Neshuk) and a couple gambles (like Jansen, Axford,etc).

I then would hold on till spring training before I do a trade. Let's see if there are any gaps that need to be filled because young players aren't ready (Ie. we need another OF or 2bagger)

Personally, I want to see Morneau come here. (It makes me wish Lawrie was here still, but oh well). If the Jays can swap Navarro for Morneau... please!! Could you imagine if they won it all and they had 3 Canadians starting for them? Axford needs to be in thier bullpen. :) That being said, Morneau is not what he once was and I would be happy with gambling on Smoak.

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 11:42 AM EST (#296279) #

Mike, maybe I shouldn't have used the word project the way I did.. I would venture to say of those 500 A ball pitchers you mentioned, evaluators would say 499 (and maybe all 500) are NOT ready for the majors and they would be correct.What I meant was at some point they would see the ability to miss bats combined with the ability to consistently repeat deliveries that would enable the pitcher to make a successful jump from the minors to the majors.

And yeah the failure rate is high. Pitchers get injured more often and more seriously than hitters. Pitchers are brought up often before they are ready, because teams need major league pitchers. Also position players can succeed in 2 ways, with hitting and defence (which is the easiest to project or translate from the minors to majors).

I still believe evaluators can more confidently and correctly say when a minor league pitcher can successfully pitch against major league hitters, than they can say a minor league hitter can successfully hit against major league pitchers.

JB21 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 11:46 AM EST (#296280) #

If they signed Morneau that would be 4 Canadian's starting for them.

James W - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 12:09 PM EST (#296281) #

Do we even know that Justin Morneau is better than Justin Smoak? I'm not convinced.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 12:13 PM EST (#296282) #

Hypobole, it's true even if you look at prospects let alone high A pitchers as a whole. You can ask scouts to name 5 A ball pitchers who they think will have decent major league careers and 5 A ball position players who will have decent careers. They'll do better with the position players. Guaranteed. So, for instance, if you look at BA's top 50 prospects for 2011 who were A ball or below, you have the following pitchers in order: Jameson Taillon, Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Jacob Turner, Casey Kelly, Tyler Matzek, Randall Delgado, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Trey McNutt. If you look at BA's top 50 prospects at A ball or below you have in order: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Gary Sanchez, Travis d'Arnaud, Brett Jackson, Jon Singleton, Aaron Hicks, Tony Sanchez and Billy Hamilton.

Catchers are most like the pitchers. They have a lot of fine skills to learn and they are most susceptible to injury.

Donkit R.K. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 12:14 PM EST (#296283) #

Neshek and Gregerson were 1 and 2 on my wish list, but I think the Astros overpaid a little on both. Knowing Gregerson was off the market (if that was afforded to AA), I would have at least matched the Neshek offer. On a 2 year term, the risk is relatively low especially with the amount of cost controlled pitchers the Jays have ready to play now and in the pipelone. Definitely wouldn't have been willing to go 3/18.5 to Gregerson though given the home park question marks.

On the subject of a different position, what is Jed Lowrie's defensive reputation at SS and 2B?

jgadfly - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 12:22 PM EST (#296284) #

If Gregorson and Neshek received 2 years at 5 million per then McGowan at $5M is not out of line. I'd even prefer Santos pitching to Martin at that price over those two. Jannsen as a setup guy would work as well. All 3 would benefit from Martin's framing.

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 12:41 PM EST (#296285) #

Mike, we're talking apples and oranges. You're talking of evaluating A ball pitchers. I'm talking of an evaluator seeing a pitcher and saying "this kid is ready for the majors" (ie Sanchez), which I agree never happens in A ball, except maybe a few who are projected to be relievers.

pooks137 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:00 PM EST (#296286) #

Earlier this morning, when it was rumoured the Jays were in on Neshek for around 2/10$, I thought that was a reasonable deal.

It seems irrational, but I don't like the deal at 2/12.5$. 6.25 mil/yr seems too high, even if its only 1.25/season or 2.5 mil more. Weird.

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:03 PM EST (#296287) #

We turned down a 4 million option on McGowan, so 5 million for him is out of line. That said, any of Jansenn, Santos, mcGowan or even Morrow on bounce back contracts could work. The would certainly benefit from Donaldson and Martin's defense and framing.

With Happ gone, we could even offer Morrow a chance for the 5th starter spot, but he probably wants more of a guarantee than that.

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:12 PM EST (#296288) #

No way I would offer Santos anything more than a minor league contract with a ST invite.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 01:28 PM EST (#296289) #

Neshek is actually the texbook example of the RP you DON'T sign.

Neshek will be 35yrs old next year.

here are the years of his career from best to worst:

1) 2014: 67.1ip, 1.87era, 2.37fip
2) 2007: 70.1ip, 2.94era, 3.66fip
3) 2006: 37.1ip, 2.19era, 2.88fip
4) 2013: 40.1ip, 3.35era, 4.66fip
5) 2012: 19.2ip, 1.37era, 4.52fip
6) 2008: 13.1ip, 4.73era, 3.73fip
7) 2011: 24.2ip, 4.01era, 6.31fip
8) 2010: 9.0ip, 5.00era, 5.52fip

that's his entire career.

two good years, separated by seven years. the only two years he has actually been a full time mlber. and only one of those years was anything special.

he had two other half-years, also separated by seven years, with middling results.

the rest of his career has been brief stints as an injury replacement with mostly poor results.

this is exactly the kind of RP you make sure you don't pay real money for. a pitcher who most likely will be just another middling reliever this year, and who may well not even be mlb quality this year at all.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 02:14 PM EST (#296290) #

Hypobole, I understand you now. I still don't agree. I think that there's a lot more to pitching than a set of motions that are required to deliver a pitch where the catcher wants it. There are some additional physical things involved with runners on, for instance, and the 90% of baseball that is half...

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 02:57 PM EST (#296291) #

How well a pitcher holds runners can be and is evaluated, but yeah, Yogi was right as only Yogi could be. Or there's the Crash Davis take; a kid can have a million dollar arm, but if he has a five cent head...

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 03:08 PM EST (#296292) #

Part of judging whether a pitching prospect is ready to take a starting role in the major leagues is mental readiness. It's a very subjective evaluation. In my view, the evaluation is significant for position players but crucial for pitchers.

"Rushing" is detrimental to the development of confidence, which is so important for the mental readiness of pitchers and particularly starting pitchers.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 03:37 PM EST (#296293) #

I hate trading for closers. In so many cases, they seem to be flashes in the pan. To be honest, it is one of the most over-rated positions.Sign a couple veterans releivers, one good one (like a Neshuk) and a couple gambles (like Jansen, Axford,etc). I then would hold on till spring training before I do a trade. Let's see if there are any gaps that need to be filled because young players aren't ready (Ie. we need another OF or 2bagger) Personally, I want to see Morneau come here. (It makes me wish Lawrie was here still, but oh well). If the Jays can swap Navarro for Morneau... please!!

Do the Rockies in need of a catcher capable of starting ? How about signing American (the continental) players from Japan, South Korea, Europe and Australasia. RP/CL Scott Matheison (from Vancouver), Dennis Sarfarte ?

------

Part of judging whether a pitching prospect is ready to take a starting role in the major leagues is mental readiness. It's a very subjective evaluation. In my view, the evaluation is significant for position players but crucial for pitchers. "Rushing" is detrimental to the development of confidence, which is so important for the mental readiness of pitchers and particularly starting pitchers.

IMO, Archives of videos and comments on them can be useful for this evaluation. In hindsight of Joey Bats phenomenal improvement of his batting, his timing improved because of video reviewing and coaching, that were mostly mental/psychological aspect of the baseball game. BbRef, BbCube are publicly assessable websites for stats; Will videos on MLB.com and various similar sport newscaster sites, and both commercial and amateurish postings on video sites like YouTube be useful ?

short - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 03:49 PM EST (#296294) #

Rule 5 draft tomorrow. It shall be interesting!

hypobole - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 03:59 PM EST (#296295) #

Could someone explain why the Jays only have 37 players on the 40 man? Did I miscount?

Rich - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:04 PM EST (#296296) #

In terms of Sanchez and Norris, context can't be ignored. Where the team is during the season in terms of overall performance and health and production of the pitching staff will have a HUGE influence on what role, if any, these 2 pitchers will play. To state in December that they should be left in the minors until August regardless of anything else is, respectfully, just plain silly. This team is built to win now, and as BP loves to say, flags fly forever. If either of these guys can help get the Jays to the playoffs this season, whether they start or relieve with the big club, that's what the team should do. Are there concerns with both? Sure. Does that mean they shouldn't help the 2014 club? Of course not.

21 years is an awfully long time, my friends...

short - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:06 PM EST (#296297) #

It is because of the Donaldson trade.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:08 PM EST (#296298) #

The Baseball World is changing, and I don't think someone is paying as much attention to the change as that person should. It once was, "Do you like that person at that price?" Now it is, "Do you like that person, then pay the price."

Waiting until the end of the Offseason and signing two Relievers, from those that are left, seems to be the plan. That plan is scary, major durability issues/performance issues abound. The In-House solution is Cecil, Loup, and a bunch of Pitchers, not named Sanchez, who are just not good enough. That smacks of doing nothing and repeating last year. I want Relievers who are too good to leave off the Bullpen Roster, not filling it with those who are just available.

I'm getting tired of trading depth to fill A.A.'s need to trade. Spending just cash doesn't do that. I want someone better and I want someone new.

CeeBee - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:26 PM EST (#296299) #

Well Richard, all you need is patience. Maybe a little, maybe a lot. Eventually, or maybe sooner there will be changes at or near the top.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
:)

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:29 PM EST (#296300) #

I'm with you Richard, we don't need to make trades to fill all of our needs. But Martin shows that AA is willing to spend on a FA. Still plenty of quality FA relief options available on the market that will probably go for a lot less money than the Pat Nesheks and Zack Dukes of the market.

I have a strong impression that veteran Japanese pitchers have tended to make quality MLB relievers at affordable rates. Taiwanese and Korean pitchers could also provide value, but I know very little about who might be available. I certainly prefer this to signing AAAA players who have had success in the far east - these guys don't seem to have the same level of success.

Gerry - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:35 PM EST (#296301) #

AA met with the media today and said that he is looking at trades to pick up relievers. I understand that whatever AA says should be taken with a grain of salt but why? Allegedly the team has lots of budget left, why not spend those dollars rather than trade assets out of the system? Is the budget really as large as we believe?

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:40 PM EST (#296302) #

Bob Elliott reported that the Jays had talked to the Diamondbacks about Wade Miley earlier this offseason - now it appears he's headed for the Red Sox - will be interesting to see the cost.

I'm betting the jays lose a prospect in the Rule v draft tomorrow - Stilson is a good candidate because a team can stash him on the 60 day DL.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:46 PM EST (#296303) #

Maybe the money is not there - the budget may be less than we were led to believe

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:50 PM EST (#296304) #

with guys traded away on the 40 man, can we not protect 3 more players before the draft? Stilson in particular could be a cheap option for our pen when he gets back.

and how did I miss that one of our minor league signings, Radhames Liz, signed a 2 year, 3 million dollar big league contract with Pittsburgh? I seriously slept on that guy.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 04:50 PM EST (#296305) #

mostly because to get an actual good reliever, you have to trade for one. the fa market for rp is scraps.

and i would enjoy seeing the red sox give up assets for miley. soft tossing league average nl lefty. .790 and .757ops vs non pitchers the past two years. that's not the recipe for al east success i don't think.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:00 PM EST (#296306) #

"....why not spend those dollars rather than trade assets out of the system?......"

Anthopoulos also mentioned today that some free-agents still don't want to come to Toronto. They often have specific cities or clubs in mind, and that's where they prefer to sign.

Still, I agree that there could be other explanations. The payroll may be smaller than we expected. It might be smaller than last year, not bigger. If so, that means Beeston has blatantly misled us. (Get him of him! Oops, they're already planning to do that, for other reasons....)

A third explanation, however, is that the Jays simply decided that the free-agent relievers weren't worth the substantial sums of money that they would have required. Miller and Robertson were very expensive, Gregerson got $18.5-million, and there are question marks about Neshek and other free-agent relievers, as Uglyone argues persuasively upthread. Trades do allow the Jays to pinpoint the players that they want, for less money or shorter contracts, and filling specific needs. One key question is whether the Jays have much in trade assets left to offer. It would have to be from the lower levels of the farm system, but that could be dangerous to the future depth of the system.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:02 PM EST (#296307) #

"Get rid of him" was what I was jokingly trying to say about Beeston above. Darn that lack of "edit" function on this site...

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:06 PM EST (#296308) #

Can one quote George W. Bush here without getting into mounds of trouble (pardon the pun)? The question of the believability of Blue Jay managements' proclamations about the size of the budget reminds me of GWB's "fool me once..." dictum.

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:07 PM EST (#296309) #

Keep in mind the big drop in the Canadian dollar. A $140 million US budget is now costing the Jays $161 million. A bit more than a year ago, the dollar was about par, and for a while was well over par. Rogers is a Canadian corporation, so their financial statement are in Canadian dollars. If the budget is the same as last year in US $, it represents a big increase for Rogers. If they want to keep the Canadian dollar cost the same, the US $ dollar budget will have to fall substantially.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:18 PM EST (#296310) #

"....The question of the believability of Blue Jay managements' proclamations about the size of the budget reminds me of GWB's "fool me once..." dictum...."

I'm not sure whether such cynicism is fair. It's still December and nobody actually knows the size of the 2015 budget, so it's a bit premature to claim that we were "fooled" by anyone. We should also admit that the payroll has indeed substantially increased in the past couple of years, and the Jays have indeed acquired high-priced players like Reyes, Buehrle, Dickey and Martin. Just a couple of years ago, cynical fans were predicting that none of those things would happen.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:21 PM EST (#296311) #

I remember years ago a jays executive saying that the company usually does currency trading when it's favourable to mitigate fluctuations - also the U.S network money is in U.S currency. It does have an effect but I think it's not as immediate as we might think.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:25 PM EST (#296312) #

I must have completely forgotten what happened last off-season. It seems like a mirage but I have this vague recollection of Anthopoulos promising not one, but two, two starting ptichers. It did seem over-the-top at the time.

The Martin contract is structured so that the bulk of the salary is payable in 2016 and later when most of the big contracts are off the books.

ayjackson - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:28 PM EST (#296313) #

Heading into last season (ie from Jan-March), the dollar was about 90 cents US, not par. It was 94 cents a year ago today.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:37 PM EST (#296314) #

I think people are letting off the Jays management too easily regarding last year - the Yankees were able to acquire Chase Headley & Brandon McCarthy for not much talent by mainly absorbing their contracts for the rest of the season - no long term commitment - given that teams were backing up in the fight for the wild card, I think those 2 players would have been a tremendous shot in the arm for the jays - the team sat on their hands while insisting through the media that the money was there if they needed it.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:40 PM EST (#296315) #

".... I have this vague recollection of Anthopoulos promising not one, but two, two starting ptichers...."

Really? He "promised" it? I recall him saying that he would like to acquire two pitchers, but I don't recall any promises or guarantees.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:50 PM EST (#296316) #

Neal Cotts has pitched decently in a hitters park in Texas the last 2 yrs. - I'd be happy if the Jays got him on a 1yr. deal.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:53 PM EST (#296317) #

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/diamondbacks-listening-to-offers-for-wade-miley.html

Checking that periodically, only shows who's not after Wade Miley. It's mildly interesting on who acquires him. Would A.A. do it? Why:
1) Needs Sanchez in the Bullpen more than as a Starter.
2) Flip him to KC for Holland.
Perhaps not.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 05:54 PM EST (#296318) #

Some intriguing speculation from TSN today that the Jays are interested in signing Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani, who would be converted to 2B. Toritani wouldn't be too expensive, since he's 33 and would be signing a short-term contract and probably isn't good enough defensively for SS. But he's a solid hitter with an .820 OPS last season, a very high OBP and walk rate, and some speed on the base paths. He's described as the "Cal Ripken of Japan" after playing 1,444 consecutive games. He might be obtainable for a few million dollars per season. He has expressed interest in leaving Japan and joining MLB in 2015. Potential drawbacks: he's represented by Scott Boras, and he has already attracted interest from the Mets and others.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:16 PM EST (#296319) #

Boras is now confirming "discussions" with the Jays about the potential acquisition of Toritani.

It's actually not a bad idea. I could live with a high-OBP good-defence patient-at-the-plate 2B for a year until Travis is ready for the job. If a 2B such as Toritani can get on base at the bottom of the lineup, he sets the table for the heavy-hitters at the top of the lineup. He might be an improved version of Kawasaki.

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:34 PM EST (#296320) #

I think people are letting off the Jays management too easily regarding last year

I believed this is on ownership, not management, unless you feel that AA should have known that ownership might have backed away financially from the big off season of 2 years ago. If that's the case, I'd love to hear your argument for it.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:49 PM EST (#296321) #

Bastardo for Joely Rodriguez?

Now there's a move that kind of annoys me. Bastardo was just given away for a nothing prospect. Bastardo has question marks but worth taking a gamble on, and I don't think he's going to cost all that much.

PeterG - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:52 PM EST (#296322) #

AA must think he can get better than Bastardo. Anyone think he should have kept McGowan at 4 mil....and is there a link for the Tortani story...can't find anything

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:56 PM EST (#296323) #

MLB Trade Rumors. Sportsnet site: Winter meetings live.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 06:58 PM EST (#296324) #

There's no story yet on Toritani. Just brief tweets tonight from Scott MacArthur, Shi Davidi etc. The information is just emerging now, and Boras was scrummed by the media only a few minutes ago, where he confirmed the "discussions."

Must emphasize that this is still speculative. Toritani might have many other suitors, for all we know.

JB21 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:14 PM EST (#296325) #

Dee Gordon traded to the Marlins, Andrew Heaney coming back along with a couple others.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:14 PM EST (#296326) #

Okay, so TSN has now posted their Toritani report: http://www.tsn.ca/macarthur-jays-eyeing-overseas-market-to-fill-second-base-1.156868

And some quick analysis from Stoeten: http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/12/10/jays-have-interest-japanese-infielder-but-not-the-one-you-think/

Also, from Japanese sources on Twitter and from some roughly translated Japanese media articles, it appears that the Jays are the frontrunners for Toritani and there aren't a lot of other competitors for him, except perhaps the Mets. The Jays seem to have scouted him repeatedly last season.

Some skeptics suggest, however, that Toritani wouldn't be much better than Kawasaki. But a quick comparison of their Japanese League statistics suggest that Toritani is about 60 points better in OPS and about 30 points better in OBP. Not sure how that would translate to MLB numbers.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:15 PM EST (#296327) #

A.A. doesn't like the Winter Meeting because it takes time away from his work. Does he dislike it so much he deliberately doesn't do anything here? Or does it just seem that way year after year?

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:19 PM EST (#296328) #

I'm all for it. nothing to lose.

his bat was much better than Muny's over there. Muny had a couple big years over there in his mid 20s but had fallen off considerably by the time he came over.

Muny's last 3yrs in Japan:

2011: .310obp, .636ops
2010: .368obp, .765ops
2009: .325obp, .684ops

Toritani's last 3yrs:

2014: .406obp, .820ops
2013: .402obp, .812ops
2012: .373obp, .748ops

on average that's over 100ops points better I think.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:22 PM EST (#296329) #

At Bat site on iphone is suggesting Dee Gordon deal is BIG.

China fan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:23 PM EST (#296330) #

Yes, you're right, uglyone. I was using their career Japanese numbers to compare the two players. But it's probably more relevant to use their last 3 years in the Japanese League instead. And by that measuring stick, Toritani is far superior. The key number is his OBP (over .400 for the past two seasons) which should translate well to the majors.

JB21 - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:29 PM EST (#296331) #

Dee Gordon for the Marlins top prospect who many are saying will be rotation ready in 2015 seems like a steal. The Marlins are also sending other players in addition to Heaney.

Dodgers also acquired Jimmy Rollins. Apparently Friedman works during the Winter Meetings.

85bluejay - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:40 PM EST (#296332) #

Not surprised about the Gordon trade - apart from selling high on Gordon, the Cuban prospect Alex Guerrero apparently has a clause in his contract making him a FA the next winter after a trade - so little trade value - Heaney is a nice return for the Dodgers.

AA had previously been interested in Bastardo - surprising he didn't top that offer.

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 07:56 PM EST (#296333) #

I don't understand what the Marlins are thinking. Gordon is not a good fielder, he's not a good hitter, and he's a decent, but not great, percentage base stealer. If he was my team's 2nd baseman, I'd be looking for an upgrade. For that, they give up their top prospect, PLUS a reliever who had a very good season in the big leagues last year, a catching prospect who hit over .300 with double digit home runs between A+ and AA, and an outfield prospect who also hit over .300 with double digit home runs in the high minors. Plus, they may have to take on Haren's big salary if he doesn't retire, as he threatened to do if traded. Can they be that mesmerized by the fact that Gordon stole 64 bases last year? I can't fathom trading Heaney even up to get Gordon, let alone all the other stuff.

jerjapan - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 08:01 PM EST (#296334) #

Trying to find what I wrote about Toritani in an older thread - anybody know why search is disabled, or if there's a better way to find old comments?

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 08:30 PM EST (#296335) #

The Nationals are apparently looking at dealing Ross Detwiler and Tyler Clippard. Presumably the Jays would have interest, particularly in Clippard, who could close.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 09:13 PM EST (#296336) #

Toritani and Kawasaki are the same age. They were both 28-30 in 2009-2011. Toritani hit much better than Kawasaki relative to league. Kawasaki played in the JPL and Toritani in the Central League and I don't know if there is a difference in the quality of opposition between the leagues.

It's fun to watch the video clips in Stoeten's article. Toritani was a fine defender at shortstop with a pretty good arm. His swing reminds me (unsurprisingly) of Ichiro's. He has quite a bit more pop than Kawasaki but much the same tenacious approach to the strike zone. He could probably slip into the back-up middle infielder role quite nicely after Travis is called up. I doubt that he is a better player than Travis, but he'd be more than capable starting off the season at second base.

Donkit R.K. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:00 PM EST (#296337) #

From MLB Trade Rumors:

"The Diamondbacks and Red Sox have agreed in principle to a trade that will send left-hander Wade Miley to Boston in exchange for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster and another minor leaguer, FOX Sports� Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report"

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 10:10 PM EST (#296338) #

Now we just hope A.A.'s next acquisition is better than Wade Miley. I consider Martin, Donaldson far superior acquisitions than Sandoval and Ramirez. Saunders was fine, about Miley caliber talent. Just need to stay ahead of the competition in acquiring talent.

dan gordon - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 11:13 PM EST (#296339) #

Sounds like a great trade for Boston. Miley has a career ERA of 3.31 away from that hitters' park he's been pitching in for the D-Backs. Miley is now, at least for the moment, Boston's best starter, and they didn't give up a ton to get him. He's going to have a few really good years for the Sox. I suppose Webster has some decent upside, De La Rosa doesn't interest me at all.

uglyone - Wednesday, December 10 2014 @ 11:30 PM EST (#296340) #

miley was league average in the nl, and a soft tossing lefty who gave up a .775ops to non pitchers the last two years. imo there's a pretty good chance he blows up good in the al. i'd slot him in as #5 on our staff.

then again, those "prospects" are entering their late 20s and have been bad in mlb and mediocre in aaa, and only have two pitches each, without great command...so it didn't cost them much. those guys probably end up rp in the end.

dan gordon - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:01 AM EST (#296341) #

You're not factoring in the fact that he played in a great hitters' park. To get a better view of how good Miley is, you've got to look at his home/road splits. Away from Chase Field his numbers are terrific. That's the guy the Sox are getting. He's going to be a very good pitcher for them. His career opponents' OPS on the road is just .704

Any time you evaluate a guy who plays in an extreme park, either a hitters' park or a pitchers' park, you have to look at the road numbers to get a realistic idea of how good the player truly is. Hitters look great if they play for Colorado, Arizona, Texas, etc. Likewise, pitchers playing for those teams look much worse than they are. The opposite holds true for players who play in pitchers' parks like San Diego and Oakland.

melondough - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:16 AM EST (#296342) #

Apparently the Dodgers are flipping Heaney to the Angles for Howie Kendrick. What a bizarre day. Also McCarthy to Dodgers. Well better them than the Yankees I always say. Would be nice to be a Dodger fan.

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:19 AM EST (#296343) #

true, but the away parks in that division - where most of his away games were - are all pitching havens, so i'm not sure we can just take his away split at face value.

but we do have a good indicator.....over his career his home xfip is 3.76 and away is 3.68, which probably gives a good measure of his true talent....and that's pretty average in the NL. replace pitchers with dhs and i'd guess its going up to 4 and maybe more.

(and fenway isn't exactly the easiest place for a lefty to pitch.)

i dunno i don't see him thriving over here, but obviously i could be completely wrong.

not a huge sample, but here's what he's done in interleague play: 71.0ip, 1.34whip, 4.44era

hypobole - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:42 AM EST (#296344) #

Doesn't ERA+ include park factors? And Miley's division Foes did have 3 pitchers parks, but also Coors Field.

stevieboy22 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:27 AM EST (#296345) #

The D Backs are interested in Navaro,

I wonder how the D Backs value Aaron Hill...

2 years 24 million on his contract, coming off a bad year:

Would a trade like Navarro(5M), Goins and Ricky Romero (7.5M + 0.6M buyout) for Hill make sense for either side?

JB21 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:29 AM EST (#296346) #

Dan Gordon. The Marlins aren't paying Haren's salary. The Dodgers are paying Haren's salary (and if he retires Miami gets to keep the money) and they're also paying whatever Gordon makes in arbitration. Marlins gonna Marlin.

dan gordon - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:47 AM EST (#296347) #

"true, but the away parks in that division - where most of his away games were - are all pitching havens, so i'm not sure we can just take his away split at face value"

Well, 36 of their 81 road games would be in the division, so most of the road games are actually outside the division, and you forgot about Colorado, which is by far the best hitters' park in baseball.

Miley was one of Arizona's best starters, now he's Boston's best starter, and it just bugs me that a division rival was able to pick up a guy they really needed so cheaply.

Speaking of cheap acquisitions, that sequence by the Dodgers was amazing. They get 4 players for Dee Gordon, then trade 1 of those players for a player who is better than Gordon. Admittedly Kendrick is only a year from free agency, but still, they really fleeced the Marlins.

dan gordon - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:02 AM EST (#296348) #

JB21 - thanks for the info about the financial aspects of the trade. Makes things little more understandable for the Marlins.

cybercavalier - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:49 AM EST (#296349) #

stevieboy22
-------
D-backs consider switching Hill for 3B. veteran 3B Andy Marte is in their system for pinch in for a young 3B prospect who shall be testing waters in 2015. IMO,

Navarro (5M) and 3B/1B Matt Hague with D-back paying some of Hill salaries.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 08:05 AM EST (#296350) #

My conclusion from yesterday: don't trust Bob Elliott's rumors. His sources seem rather poor. Within 24 hours, he was proven wrong on McCarthy, wrong on Neshek and wrong on Gregerson. (To be fair, the Jays were probably sniffing around all 3 of those players, but probably weren't at all serious when the bidding began and the price ranges became clear. Elliott seemed unaware of that.)

So I'm back to trusting Shi Davidi, not Bob Elliott. And here are a few nuggets from Davidi's late-night wrap-up at the end of Wednesday night:

* For the bullpen, the Jays think they might be able to trade a low-level prospect for a good reliever in his walk season from a team that needs to do a salary dump. He mentioned several possibilities: Tyler Clippard (likely to earn $9.3-million in arbitration), Brad Ziegler, Oliver Perez, JP Howell, Jonathan Broxton, and James Russell. In exchange, Davidi speculates, the Jays might be able to trade a low-level prospect such as Alberto Tirado or Jairo Labourt. Or even Max Pentecost, who is blocked by Russell Martin but can be traded in mid-January as a "player to be named later." But higher-level prospects such as Norris, Osuna and Castro are definitely off the table, Davidi says.

* After weeks of assuming that the Jays have $20-million in payroll room to work with, the Sportsnet reporters seem to have talked to a Jays bean-counter who explained some bad news: the payroll needs to include hypothetical buyouts for anyone whose contract might need to be bought out because of potential career-ending injuries, plus the optional buyouts for Dickey, Izturis and Romero (even though Dickey's buyout might not be used). Then you have to add around $6-million for pre-arb players and potential mid-year call-ups. So the Jays only have $8.5-million in payroll room to play with (plus potentially Navarro's salary, but probably minus about $3-million that was sent to Seattle in the Saunders deal), according to this new calcluation. (I can see the cynics already saying that the Jays were lying and spinning in their earlier numbers, but to be fair the Jays reporters might have been unaware of the correct way to calculate the payroll. Or, who knows, maybe they were deliberately misled.) Anyway, instead of having $20-million to play with in 2015, the Jays might only have a few million. Congrats to Mike Green for sniffing out this likelihood before I did!

* If the Jays acquire a good starting pitcher, Aaron Sanchez could still be moved back to the bullpen. I'd be fine with this, as long as the Jays see him as a starter in the longer term, which I think they do.

* For 2nd base, Toritani seems more likely than Lowrie, and Davidi confirms that the Jays indeed have been scouting him.

My own summary: let's be patient and see how everything shakes out, rather than furiously railing at the Jays for deceiving us on payroll. Even with less money than expected, the Jays can still acquire two or three relievers (from trading a low-level prospect and from trading Navarro), and they still might have enough money to upgrade at 2B (with Toritani perhaps) and even in the rotation. Seems likely, however, that the OF is probably set with the current players.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 08:59 AM EST (#296351) #

Thanks, CF.

Wade Miley is an interesting story, and I don't think that the ERA+ number does the story justice. He just turned 28. Over the last 3 seasons, he has thrown almost exactly 600 innings evenly distributed. His K rate jumped last year to over 8, but with a spike in his W rate to 3.35 and a smaller increase in his HR rate. He has always controlled the running game exceptionally well, but nonetheless has pitched better with nobody on. The end result has been just slightly above average starting pitching. My instinctive reaction is that a pitcher like this is a prime candidate for a breakout. On the other hand, a trade to Boston might not have been the best thing for his career- there have been relatively few left-handers in Fenway who have taken the step forward and a few who did right after leaving. And the left-side of the Red Sox infield isn't going to be great defensively either. Put him in St. Louis with a modern day Ozzie Smith behind him and it would be a different story.

85bluejay - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 09:37 AM EST (#296352) #

What a 24 hrs. for the Dodgers! They've improved the defence behind that pitching significantly - now brains behind that money - I think that 4 yr. McCarthy gamble will work out just fine.

I don't even bother thinking about what the jays payroll is - I just react to what they do - anything the FO/media say/speculate, I take with a large grain of salt - praise/criticise what they do, mostly ignore what they say - if they sell the future for the present, then so be it.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 09:40 AM EST (#296353) #

One alternative approach to anointing Sanchez as a 5th starter would be to stretch out Redmond, Jenkins and Hendriks to 3-4 innings in spring training and let the one who is pitching best have the 5th starter job at the outset of the season. That is probably what Earl Weaver would have done with the talent on this club. For what it's worth, Steamer has Redmond projected for a 3.87 ERA out of the bullpen (rotation equivalent about 4.2), Hendirks for an ERA of 4.19 as a swing man (rotation equivalent about 4.3), and Jenkins for an ERA of 4.31 out of the bullpen (rotation equivalent about 4.6).

John Northey - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 09:54 AM EST (#296354) #

I see 5th starter as a battle of Sanchez vs Norris with Estrada as the backup. Sanchez and Norris both have the incentive of make it or expect AAA time - I suspect the Jays would rather put Sanchez in AAA starting than ML bullpen unless the pen is a disaster. Redmond is purely a long man/emergency starter while Jenkins and Hendriks are also in the 'oh crap we need someone to start' category and fighting for a back end of the pen job.

Thus I see it as...
Rotation: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez or Norris
Bullpen: Cecil, Loup, Estrada, Redmond, battle for the rest (Jenkins, Hendriks, Delabar Drabek, Rasmussen, etc.)

No question AA will hunt down more relievers on the cheap. Given how variable relievers are I doubt he plans on blowing more than $4 mil on any single guy.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 10:17 AM EST (#296355) #

With the current personnel, it wouldn't make sense to send Sanchez down to learn how to be a starter at the outset of this season. The club has been built to compete now and Sanchez has shown that he can be very effective out of the pen. Obviously, if somehow Greg Holland and Wade Davis materialized on the club's roster without any significant losses, it would be a different story. It aint happening.

It is unlikely that Estrada has any significantly different expectation in the rotation than Jenkins, Hendriks or Redmond. He does have a career pattern of being a slow starter, and I would be reluctant to have him in the rotation at the outset. As for Norris, it's possible that he is completely unhittable in spring training and that his control is refined, in which case this club (and really any club) would go with him.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 10:30 AM EST (#296356) #

Porcello for Cespedes and minor league pieces per a number of sources. As a right-handed groundballer in Fenway, Porcello is well-suited to the Sox. He's probably not a better pitcher than Miley (or if so, only marginally), but I expect him to do much better in that context.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 10:42 AM EST (#296357) #

If anyone is advocating Toronto acquires Aaron Hill, please check on how good he is now. Checking an Arizona Diamondbacks' Blog might help. Hint: Maicer is better.

I don't worry about how much A.A. has to spend. I suspect arbitration increases to anyone, including new acquisitions, are pre-factored in. As for factoring in Buyouts for everyone, that covers very extremely miniscule impossible chance of total loss of all those assets (players are assets, some more than most). That's not a consideration for limiting spending. A.A. will spend what he needs to spend to do the job, because you can't go thus far and say "no more".

The true value of Dioner Navarro will be apparent before Spring Training starts. If he's still here, he has none. Too many people want Catching, someone will pay the price A.A. wants (excessive though it might be). Martin was a Wow! Donaldson was a Wow! Saunders was a Finally. A.A. needs more Wows!

85bluejay - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 11:15 AM EST (#296358) #

the Reds are said to be moving starters to the Tigers & Marlins - likely then that Aroldis Chapman is also going to be moved - high cost in prospects will be needed.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 11:25 AM EST (#296359) #

Porcello is a good add for Boston. I've wanted him in the Jays system since his draft year.

That being said, there's been lots of movement so far and its easy to get upset when you miss out on players that you think would be a good fit. But at the same time there are two good things to consider.

1. We did our business early and this team is definitely better than we were last season.

2. The movement, with very few exceptions, has been out of our division.

I'm fine with waiting now, just as I would have been last season. I just hope that if an opportunity like Ervin Santana for 13 million pops up we have the resources to make sure that it gets done.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 11:29 AM EST (#296360) #

I'm looking at the flurry of trades occurring the last day or so, and that got me interested. On the Roster we have our Studs, our newly acquired Assets and the untradeables - having little or no value. Dioner Navarro is it, unless someone moves in a blockbuster deal.

A.A. has to decide which top Prospect he will move, because to get everything done, he must move one. Everyone will jump on this and say "no, not ...! Time to thin the herd, too many are coming too soon, to keep everyone.

These are the closest, or best value for Trades.
In AAA/MLB status: Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Jimenez, Stilson.
In AA: Travis, Cole, Boyd, Burns.
In A+: Osuna, Nay, Castro, Dean, Smith.
2014s: Hoffman (DL), Pentecost (A-), Reid-Foley, Thomas.

Then we have: Davis (A), Lugo (A), Alford (A), Tirado (A-), Labourt (A-), Urena (A-), Smoral (A-), Tellez (A-), Jansen (RK+). Each with a certain value.

A.A wants to make trades? Good Luck.

Hodgie - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 11:57 AM EST (#296361) #

I find it interesting that the Red Sox are moving to more of a groundball starting staff, especially given that their infield defense does not exactly project to be stellar. You can count me among those that question how well Miley will transition to Fenway Park specifically and the AL in general. I like the addition of Porcello at the cost of a superfluous piece in Cespedes but that acquisition has really only elevated their rotation to weak from dumpster fire. Boston really blew it by not extending Lester last season when they had the opportunity. After all, Lester's floor is Porcello's ceiling and they have essentially traded one for the other.

JB21 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:04 PM EST (#296362) #

Panda, Bogaerts, Pedroia, & Napoli certainly isn't the worst IF in the MLB.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:10 PM EST (#296363) #

As expected Toronto select no one in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, while who they lose doesn't matter.

Hodgie - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:14 PM EST (#296364) #

I didn't say Boston's infield was the worst, however it is projected to be average to below average at three of the four positions which is not an ideal configuration when constructing a groundball staff.

Further, if there was any question as to their intent with the rotation, no sooner does my last post get submitted than word leaks out that Boston has now signed Justin Masterson. I believe the Sons of Sam Horn are going to have a thing or two to say as each subsequent groundball finds its way to the outfield this upcoming season.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:16 PM EST (#296365) #

So the Jays didn't lose Stilson or Burns in the Rule 5 draft. Other teams, apparently, have the same relatively low opinion of them that the Jays seem to have.

Still 3 open slots in the Jays 40-man roster. Will be interesting to see who they pick up in the next few weeks.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:25 PM EST (#296366) #

Hodgie, the defensive projection (and observed performance) for Pedroia is excellent and for Napoli is good (the -4 defence includes positional adjustment). Sandoval projects as average and Bogaerts somewhat below. It's pretty good for a right-handed ground ball pitcher.

Dave Till - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:33 PM EST (#296367) #

The club has been built to compete now and Sanchez has shown that he can be very effective out of the pen.

I would not be surprised at all to see the Jays open the season with Sanchez as their closer. He's got good enough stuff that he can just challenge hitters with it, which is good enough for one-inning stretches (at least, until the league catches up with him). I'm beginning to see him as the new Billy Koch (who was also a starter in the minors).

It is unlikely that Estrada has any significantly different expectation in the rotation than Jenkins, Hendriks or Redmond. He does have a career pattern of being a slow starter, and I would be reluctant to have him in the rotation at the outset.

Oddly enough, Estrada got off to a good start in 2014, but then got lit up in May. I'd be reluctant to start him in the Rogers Centre in April - balls tend to fly out of the park when the roof is closed in early spring, and Estrada led the NL in home runs allowed last year. That's a combination that isn't going to work out well for anyone (other than fans in the 200 outfield level looking for souvenirs).

As for Norris, it's possible that he is completely unhittable in spring training and that his control is refined, in which case this club (and really any club) would go with him.

Norris has risen so quickly that I am not sure what to expect. My guess is that he is ready, and that the fifth slot in the rotation will be no contest, but that's just a guess.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:38 PM EST (#296368) #

".....One alternative approach to anointing Sanchez as a 5th starter would be to stretch out Redmond, Jenkins and Hendriks...."

But the Jays would never "anoint" Sanchez as the 5th starter, even if they think he can probably win the job. That's what spring training is for -- to try various options and ensure that there's some competition. The Jays, in fact, have been quite ruthless in assessing their pitchers during spring training, and they've been willing to demote pitchers who don't perform as well as expected. Look at what happened to Romero at the end of spring training in 2013, and to Happ at the end of spring training in 2014. They didn't measure up, so they were demoted, even though they were expected to have full-time rotation jobs.

So Sanchez will have to win his job, fair and square. Even if the Jays decide that Sanchez is good enough for a starting role, and even if they don't acquire another veteran starter in the next few weeks, I'm sure the Jays will make certain that there's competition for Sanchez, and a back-up plan in case his repertoire isn't strong enough for the 5th starter job. And if Redmond or Hendriks simply out-pitch Sanchez during spring training, why wouldn't the Jays be willing to accept that pleasant surprise and shift Sanchez to the bullpen?

But honestly -- I really don't expect Redmond or Hendriks or Jenkins to out-pitch Sanchez in spring training. If Sanchez ends up back in the bullpen, it will be because the Jays acquire another good starter, and because the bullpen needs strengthening.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 12:41 PM EST (#296369) #

And to add to my last post: Sanchez would also have to compete against Norris in spring training, and -- as Dave Till points out -- there's even a possibility that Norris could win that battle. Estrada will also be competing against Sanchez. Nothing will be handed to Sanchez this spring without a serious competition.

pooks137 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:03 PM EST (#296370) #

I wonder if Masterson's 1yr/9.5 deal with Boston is a reasonable analogy for Brandon Morrow.

Masterson had been more durable than Morrow leading up 2014, probably making him more valuable.

If Morrow can get close to 9 mil on a pillow-contract like this, he's not going to be interested in signing as a reliever.

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:28 PM EST (#296371) #

[quote]@Buster_ESPN: Boston projected rotation: Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Anthony Raunado.[/QUOTE]

last 2yrs

Porcello (26): 30gs/yr, 6.3ip/gs, 6.4k/9, 1.9bb/9, 51.8gb%, 3.88era, 3.62fip, 3.45xfip, 3.61siera
Miley (28): 33gs/yr, 6.1ip/gs, 7.4k/9, 3.1bb/9, 51.6gb%, 3.94era, 3.98fip, 3.84xfip, 3.81siera
Buchholz (30): 22gs/yr, 6.3ip/gs, 7.4k/9, 2.9bb/9, 47.0gb%, 3.94era, 3.53fip, 3.80xfip, 3.86siera
Masterson* (30): 24gs/yr, 6.0ip/gs, 8.8k/9, 4.1bb/9, 58.2gb%, 4.20era, 3.63fip, 3.59xfip, 3.61siera
Kelly (27): 16gs/yr, 5.7ip/gs, 5.5k/9, 3.7bb/9, 54.1gb%, 3.29era, 4.18fip, 4.30xfip, 4.47siera

* - masterson probably overrated by a simple average as he was so awful last year they had to stop pitching him, so his awful innings were limited.

2 solid innings eaters up top, two guys who were awful last year but great the year before, and a fungible #5 starter. not bad, not great. no #1s and not even any clear #2s...and the 3/4/5 spots are still big question marks.

the interesting thing is that it seems clear they believe gb% is the new market inefficiency, which might have something to do with infield shift strategy. that might be the groundballiest rotaton around.

but i wouldn't be surprised to see them add one more SP as good or better than porcello/miley before the season starts.

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:33 PM EST (#296372) #

[QUOTE]the payroll needs to include hypothetical buyouts for anyone whose contract might need to be bought out because of potential career-ending injuries, plus the optional buyouts for Dickey, Izturis and Romero (even though Dickey's buyout might not be used). [/QUOTE]

this sounds lkke utter bullpoop to me, for the record.

Hodgie - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:43 PM EST (#296373) #

I understand the positional adjustment Mike, I am just more inclined to believe the projections for the infield which suggest regression given the age and/or body types of the major contributors.

The probability that Pedroia repeats his otherworldly performance of last season is small, Sandoval's history suggests he is just as likely to offer negative value as the alternative and Napoli is on the wrong side of the age curve, coming off another injury and not exactly considered an iron man to begin with. If a team's intent is to build a groundball centric starting rotation I would expect it to be supported by an elite infield defense and outside of Pedroia I just don't see it trending in that direction. Maybe I (and the projections) are very wrong and Pedroia, Napoli and Sandoval all buck regression, Bogaerts learns how to field adequately and the Butterfield shift compensates for advancing age/declining skills but I don't know that I would count on it.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:48 PM EST (#296374) #

Uglyone, we both know that corporations spin. And we also know that payrolls are never a rigidly fixed number. So it's probably useless to get hung up on the exact amount or the exact explanations that are used by the bean-counters. Anthopoulos is probably correct when he says that he can ask the owners to increase the payroll if he brings them an unexpected opportunity -- as he did with the Marlins trade. The reality, in all likelihood, is that the payroll is much higher than it was in 2012, but lower than we might have hoped when some of the media began predicting a payroll of $145-million or $150-million. Beyond that, the exact reasons aren't worth a lot of analysis. I was just passing on the information that the payroll will be lower than some were hoping. Ignore the corporate rhetoric, if you wish, and just focus on the reality of a payroll that seems likely to be somewhere in the range of $130-million to $140-million. That should still be enough to produce a contender, if AA has chosen the right priorities for his acquisitions. And so far, I think he has.

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 01:56 PM EST (#296375) #

jays rotation, last 2yrs:

Stroman (24): 20gs/yr, 6.0ip/gs, 7.7k/9, 2.0bb/9, 53.7gb%, 3.29era, 2.79fip, 3.19xfip, 3.21siera
Buehrle (36): 33gs/yr, 6.2ip/gs, 5.7k/9, 2.2bb/9, 44.5gb%, 3.77era, 3.88fip, 4.09xfip, 4.22siera
Dickey (40): 34gs/yr, 6.5ip/gs, 7.2k/9, 3.0bb/9, 41.1gb%, 3.97era, 4.45fip, 4.19xfip, 4.09siera
Hutchison (24): 32gs/yr, 5.8ip/gs, 9.0k/9, 2.0bb/9, 36.1gb%, 4.48era, 3.85fip, 3.82xfip, 3.59siera
Estrada (30): 20gs/yr, 6.0ip/gs, 8.0k/9, 2.5bb/9, 36.0gb%, 4.37era, 4.71fip, 3.91xfip, 3.71siera

huh. estrada's numbers are better than i thought. he did have a crazy highnhr/fb rate (14.6%), too, which might be a little bit of a fluke, and might mean he's even better than that performance.

now that the red sox have put gb% in, my head, though, its hard not to notice hutch and estrada's very low gb%, and think that it might potentially be a reason why they underperformed their peripherals.

then again, stroman's fantastic gb% left him underperforming his peripherals anyways, while dickey and buehrle always outperform their peripheals with average to below gb rates, so maybe that's just me reading too much into it.

85bluejay - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:08 PM EST (#296376) #

Even with the Jays not participating, this was the most fun and exciting winter meetings I can remember.

The Red Sox are putting much faith in Manager/pitching guru John Farrell abilities

John Northey - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:12 PM EST (#296377) #

For the rotation 5th slot battle (as is) I figure the Jays view is... Sanchez has it unless he has a bad spring, Norris has to be 'wow' to get it, Estrada the fall back position. Guys like Redmond and Jenkins are just emergency fill-ins who have to earn every pitch they get in the majors for good or ill, fair or not.

I expect Sanchez to win it in spring while Norris spends April and May in AAA before getting a shot when someone goes down with injury or Sanchez has issues (something always seems to happen to someone in those first few months). Estrada will get probably 5-10 starts and others a start here or there as needed.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:33 PM EST (#296378) #

I know the attraction of the high-ceiling guys. That was McGowan and Morrow last year. Hopefully, Gibbons and Walker go into spring training with eyes open. I honestly don't have a huge amount of confidence in their ability to sort out the rotation well unless the answers stare them in the face.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 02:55 PM EST (#296379) #

Hodgie, I don't quite get your comments about Napoli and Pedroia. DRS has him at +10 and +7 the last 2 years. UZR has him at +10 and +5. I understand some regression with age, but doesn't it seem likely that he'll be a little better than average in 2015. Pedroia has been +18, +11, +15 and +17 according to DRS and +19, +10, +11, +18 according to UZR over the last four years.. He is 31 years old. I'd expect him to be about +10 in 2015.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 03:28 PM EST (#296380) #

Mark Canha was selected second in the Rule 5 draft by the Rockies and traded to the A's. I guess he could platoon with Ike Davis. It's a smart move.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 04:09 PM EST (#296381) #

I don't think we should worry about who Starts, who Relieves and who's in AAA until later in the Season. It's fine to talk about Marco Estrada, Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins as being Starters for this Team, except that J.A. Happ was better and he's gone. Sean Nolin might be comparable to or better than those three and Kendall Graveman might be better than all four, and they are gone.

Estrada is a new acquisition, he was traded for, and might be decent - good wherever he plays. That all very well, except he's not a Top Five Starter. Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins were not traded, they are basically what's left. That's just saying they are not good enough. They are not Top Five Starter material and they're not even close.

Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman and Norris are good Starters, Top Five Starters, but how good they truly are remains to be seen. Aaron Sanchez has great stuff. He's pitched extremely well up here, but the consistency of his control is not what it should be. Daniel Norris has very good stuff and good control be very little experience. He just needs to pitch the innings up here to find out what he'll be. Both Sanchez and Norris are Top Five Starter material. No one else in the Blue Jays systems is of that caliber or even very close. Right now, AAA has nothing in their Rotation if both make the Roster in 2015. That's our problem.

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 04:38 PM EST (#296382) #

"I think people are letting off the Jays management too easily regarding last year - the Yankees were able to acquire Chase Headley & Brandon McCarthy for not much talent by mainly absorbing their contracts"

Don't forget Martin Prado, who was traded for a non-prospect and would look like a really nice piece on the Jays current roster.

"unless you feel that AA should have known that ownership might have backed away financially from the big off season of 2 years ago. If that's the case, I'd love to hear your argument for it."

Well, jerjapan, I was pointing out right after the trade with the Marlins that the payroll was headed to an untenable situation in 2013 unless a significant increase would follow. AA worked for the team when JP was given some shekels to play around and saw what happened the following years when JP didn't instantly succeed. I absolutely think AA should've been considering the future payroll when he made the commitments for 2013, and should not have just assumed he'd have enough $ to augment the roster the following year.

Hodgie - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 04:46 PM EST (#296383) #

Mike, perhaps I am placing too much weight on Napoli's career numbers at 1B. I see a player with 1000 innings of elite defense and another 2000+ innings of good to below average defense. Given his age, propensity for injury/missed time and my probable bias regarding the accuracy of 1B defensive value, when Steamer projects further regression closer to average I tend to agree.

As for Pedroia, he just had the second best season of his career defensively at the age of 31 according to metrics. Given the typical decline of players defensively at the keystone position it is way more likely that he performs at his career norms, which while still elite is considerably worse than last season.

In the end my assessment may be too harsh, but I have a hard time envisioning a situation where Boston doesn't see considerable regression in their infield defense. Only 3.5 months before Boston attempts to prove my speculation invalid.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:05 PM EST (#296384) #

My understanding, Hodgie, is that the Steamer fielding projections are here. Napoli is +4.2 I am also a little confused about your numbers. Napoli has 2000 innings at first base (playing there most of the time) the last two years, and 1000 innings at first base prior to that playing part-time. It looks to me like the right side of the infield should be pretty good and the left side not so much. Good for Porcello and Masterson. Not so much for Miley.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:13 PM EST (#296385) #

"....I absolutely think AA should've been considering the future payroll when he made the commitments for 2013, and should not have just assumed he'd have enough $ to augment the roster the following year...."

You've often made this allegation, but what evidence do you have of the inner workings of AA's mind? You're alleging that Anthopoulos was confident that the owners would give him a constantly increasing payroll. Where is the evidence of this? Any intelligent GM would know that he isn't guaranteed anything at all. He would know that Rogers is subject to the whims of its executives and its shareholders and therefore is as likely to make errors as any other corporation. Should the GM refuse to accept a payroll increase in 2013 because of the possibility that he might not get an increase in 2014? I don't think it logically follows. If he hadn't been able to sell the owners on the benefits of the Marlins trade, and the acquisition of Dickey and Cabrera, he might have got nothing at all -- just the old $90-million payroll that would never work in 2015.

Your argument, if I understand correctly, is that Anthopoulos shouldn't have done the Marlins trade and traded for Dickey if he wasn't confident of similar payroll increases in the future. So he should have kept Henderson Alvarez and Yunel Escobar and the younger prospects and hoped that this would produce a superior team by now. I don't agree. Alvarez is a nice player, and so is Syndergaard and maybe d'Arnaud, but I don't honestly believe that the Jays would be better off in 2015 and 2016 if they had done nothing in 2013. The team is shaping up pretty nicely in 2015. There are no guarantees, but you've got to like a team with the current lineup (from Reyes to Saunders in the 1-to-6 slots) and a rotation as it currently looks. Would the Jays be better if they'd refused to do the Marlins and Dickey trades? To answer "yes", you have to argue that the money would have been better spent on other acquisitions -- and that requires cherry-picking the free agents (with hindsight) to assume that the Jays would have picked the absolute best free-agents, which is easier said than done.

You're entitled to your opinion, and nobody can disprove your hypothetical argument about what would have happened if the Jays had never done the Marlins trade, but I think you're relying too much on best-case-scenarios in a hypothetical alternate universe.

dan gordon - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:14 PM EST (#296386) #

Heard on The Fan that Arizona may be after Navarro. They have a few interesting relievers. Evan Marshall would be nice, but 'Zona may not be willing to part with him for Navarro, given Marshall's age, team control and low contract. Brad Zeigler makes about the same as Navarro, and has 1 year left, plus an option.

jerjapan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:27 PM EST (#296387) #

I was pointing out right after the trade with the Marlins that the payroll was headed to an untenable situation in 2013 unless a significant increase would follow.

92-93, I recall you saying that and certainly your concerns were valid last year. Past history has shown Toronto ownership to be fickle in terms of financial investments in the team on the field. It has also shown that we often have to overpay to attract veteran talent. The real question to me remains unanswered - should AA have known that Rogers would shut the purse? I don't really have a clear sense of the financial history of the team - if we were spending more or less relative to our revenues than other teams. The course of this offseason should certainly clarify the intentions of the current CEO.

I think the sabremetric fanbase is more inclined to undervalue big ticket free agents than front offices are - as shown by the Fangraphs crowdsourced FA contracts. big contracts are a risk, but a risk teams at a certain pint on the win curve have to take. sure, AA could have guessed that a corporation like rogers might get a new CEO with a different philosophy - but is that a risk that he should take or not? take a look at the last 20 years of world series winning teams - they spend money on big contracts.

ultimately, i like that AA takes risks - i feel that given our super-competetive divsion and the financial resources available to some of the teams in the AL, we need to role the dice sometimes and overpay for big ticket contracts - even if ownership might change their level of financial commitment.

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:29 PM EST (#296388) #

I am very confused, CF, because your first paragraph seems to make the exact point I was trying to make in response to jerjapan.

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:39 PM EST (#296389) #

And just to address your second paragraph - the trades that offseason brought Dickey, Buehrle, and Reyes to the current roster, and it took off dArnaud, Hechavarria, Escobar, and Alvarez. Even if you want to argue that Rogers might have kept the money or that AA would have spent all of it foolishly, I'm still not convinced the Jays are a better team in 2015 than they otherwise would've been.

But let's be clear, since you seem to have turned my comment into a bashing of that offseason - I'm not doing that. I understand why AA put his balls on the line, even if payroll wasn't going to continue to increase. I was the one shouting from the rooftops for years that I was sick of the excuses and waiting.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:39 PM EST (#296390) #

So you agree, 92-93, with this part of my first paragraph? "If he hadn't been able to sell the owners on the benefits of the Marlins trade, and the acquisition of Dickey and Cabrera, he might have got nothing at all -- just the old $90-million payroll that would never work in 2015."

In any event, I'd like to know exactly what you're arguing. You think AA made payroll errors in 2013 and/or 2014. So what exactly should he have done, and how would it have improved the team that he now has? (Without using hindsight to cherry-pick the best-case scenario, please.)

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:42 PM EST (#296391) #

Absolutely I agree with that sentence, and I'm pretty sure I have never said anything that would suggest otherwise.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:42 PM EST (#296392) #

To be specific, 92-93, can you explain the argument about how the payroll became "untenable" because of the Marlins trade? In my view, the dramatic payroll increase in early 2013 did not prevent Anthopoulos from spending $82-million to acquire Russell Martin in late 2014, so what part of the situation was "untenable"?

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 05:46 PM EST (#296393) #

The part where the Jays GM identified his team's needs and then did nothing to fill them because he couldn't.

Vulg - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:07 PM EST (#296394) #

Carrying contracts like Reyes and Buehrle is what makes things untenable. If you're going to set a budget that is 10s of millions lower than the true big spenders in the league, don't pretend to be one. You'll end up constrained when wanting to, oh I don't know, build a bullpen or add any kind of value at a trade deadline.

I'd be pretty content if the Jays were the rich-man's Rays, but it's just silly to act like a poor-man's Yankees. You end up in these situations, where you can't fully invest when the time comes (i.e. a good enough amount of your young core matures). Unlike the Rays or A's, the Jays wouldn't necessarily be priced out of the market for their own players once control expires.

I like the Martin signing and love the Donaldson trade, but am frustrated by the constraints in place that prevent the team from addressing other glaring needs.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:08 PM EST (#296395) #

In my view, AA has had a great off-season (Martin, Donaldson, Saunders, Smoak, Travis). It will be a shame, though, if Rogers decides to zip up its wallet now (or at the trade deadline again). The team would benefit from an extra push to deepen the roster (players like Kendrick and McCarthy would have been nice adds) and really line the team up for 90+ wins.

I think the Achilles' heel of the 2015 team as currently constituted is health/depth. Gibbons is going to run his stars out there every day. I think the team may end up having significant injuries again, even with the Lawrie and Lind trades.

One argument I hate is the "we don't need to make any more acquisitions because we can carry a Goins or three - our lineup is that good." It's that good when it's healthy, but it's never really all that healthy over the course of a full season (thanks in part to the concrete). Inevitably because of injuries the team ends up with a lineup that is four, five or six strong, instead of seven or eight strong.the theory. Same with the rotation. The team you start with on paper is rarely the one you end up with later in the season.

Besides, you now have a great core of elite players. Why wouldn't you want to go the extra mile and construct a world-beating roster, at relatively modest extra cost?

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:10 PM EST (#296396) #

"....The part where the Jays GM identified his team's needs and then did nothing to fill them because he couldn't...."

You're still evading the issue of what you think Anthopoulos should have done instead. Should he not identify targets and areas for improvement? Should he never try to improve the team if he is not guaranteed to achieve every target? Should he have never done the Marlins trade because of the risk that might be unable to obtain every pitcher that he would like to obtain in the following season?

Alternatively -- since you're giving the usual cryptic comments that leave us all grasping for understanding -- are you saying that the fault is entirely the fault of the owners, and that Rogers shouldn't have increased its payroll in 2013 if it couldn't guarantee a similar increase in 2014? Much as I would enjoy the phenomenon of a constantly ballooning Jays payroll, it's not realistic to expect or demand this. It's also true that the "team's needs" in 2014 weren't really the fault of the owners or the GM. The needs were caused by the unexpected and unpredictable implosion of the team's two cornerstone pitchers: Romero and Morrow. Many teams would be badly damaged by that kind of scenario, which isn't easy for the GM or the owners to immediately fix.

I'm not defending the owners. I'm just suggesting that your argument is illogical because it seems to assume that every problem can be easily fixed and should be blamed on the owners or GM if it is not fixed.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:17 PM EST (#296397) #

"....You'll end up constrained when wanting to, oh I don't know, build a bullpen or add any kind of value at a trade deadline..... I like the Martin signing and love the Donaldson trade, but am frustrated by the constraints in place that prevent the team from addressing other glaring needs."

This is a very premature criticism. The rush to judgement on Dec. 11, with two months left in the off-season, is so strange. You're assuming that the Jays are "constrained" from building a bullpen. There's still plenty of time to build a bullpen, and Anthopoulos clearly has a bunch of options that he is mulling over. Just because he didn't sign Miller or Robertson or Gregerson, it doesn't mean that he is "constrained" from building a bullpen. There are more than 3 or 4 relievers available in the majors.

Obviously the bullpen is a "glaring need." If it hasn't been addressed by spring training, please feel free to rip the owners and the GM for their stupidity. I just don't think they're stupid enough to ignore the bullpen -- and in fact all the evidence suggests otherwise. And there's certainly nothing in the presence of Reyes and Buehrle that prevented the Jays from spending $82.5-milliion on the costliest free-agent contract in the team's history, so why would Reyes and Buehrle be constraining the Jays from spending a few million dollars to acquire a couple of bullpen pieces?

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:34 PM EST (#296398) #

AA should have continued his asset-gathering game until he was ready to spend $ on free agents. Making a push that entailed spending prospects AND money that would not be sustainable THE VERY NEXT YEAR never sat well with me, even if I was positively giddy at the time that the team was so much better than the day before.

"It's also true that the "team's needs" in 2014 weren't really the fault of the owners or the GM. The needs were caused by the unexpected and unpredictable implosion of the team's two cornerstone pitchers: Romero and Morrow. Many teams would be badly damaged by that kind of scenario, which isn't easy for the GM or the owners to immediately fix."

Romero imploded before any of these moves and Morrow had never thrown 180 innings, so we have a larger problem here if AA couldn't fill the 2014 holes because he was expecting better performance out of those 2 guys.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:44 PM EST (#296399) #

"....AA should have continued his asset-gathering game until he was ready to spend $ on free agents...."

You'd be counting on a very patient fan base. And as this very thread demonstrates, "fans" and "patience" shouldn't be uttered in the same breath.

As for Romero and Morrow: both were under expensive multi-year contracts in 2013 and 2014 -- contracts that most of us applauded at the time when they were signed. All of us expected better, not just Anthopoulos.

In fact, AA did manage to fill the holes pretty well last season -- with Hutchison and Stroman and Happ, all of whom were pooh-poohed by various fans on this site at various points in the past couple of years. Santana would have been nice to have as well. But the difference between (say) Santana and Happ wouldn't have been enough to push the Jays into the playoffs last season.

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:46 PM EST (#296400) #

Personally I'd be just fine if the Blue Jays didn't spend whatever $ they have left on fungible relievers and instead focused on either a better hitter than Navarro for the DH spot or an actual MLB 2B. I think the organization has more than enough arms to put together a competent bullpen, and I think the best way to improve the bullpen is to actually acquire a starter and bump the roles down. There's a lot of debate about the development of starters, and I land firmly on the side that believes there is nothing wrong with working them in through the bullpen and taking it from there. I see enough among Cecil, Loup, Estrada, Norris, Sanchez, Castro, Hoffman, Jenkins, Redmond, Drabek, Delabar, and the inevitable scrap heap adds AA will make that I don't think the bullpen will decide the success of the season.

FA RP on multi-year deals should probably only be signed by the big boys and the teams with $ to spend looking for mid-season trade value, like the Astros. Neither fits the Jays.

92-93 - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 06:51 PM EST (#296401) #

I remembered being skeptical of the Romero extension so I just looked it up. Fun thread, especially considering the fair Lester-Romero comparisons and what Lester just signed for.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100814153614238

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:04 PM EST (#296402) #

I've been reading: http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/12/11/gregor-chisholm-lays-down-an-excellent-deflating-point-about-payroll/#more-26927
and it's interesting.

If you include signed contracts, arby settlements, pre-arbys and buyout stuff together, it falls about $7.5 MM short of last years sum. Everyone important agrees payroll went up. So minimum $$$ available: $8.0 MM to, based on the way A.A.'s acting, a maximum of $12.5 MM still available. That's basically in the $137.0 MM - $142.0 MM range, which is fair in this economy.

Now it's possible there's more: $15.0 MM - $20.0 MM. If A.A. trying for everything, two - three Relievers and a 2B, he might need to count pennies too. Some of the top Relievers on the Trade Market are scheduled for around $9.0 MM in arby (2nd year).

Jdog - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:31 PM EST (#296403) #

I personally agree with your 92-93 when it comes to not worrying too much about the pen. The most important aspect is getting another starter, and looking for a high upside starter. I would have loved it if they acquired Mat Latos as he was very cheap. If they could acquire a player like this and use the kids in the bullpen or as AAA depth the team is going to be much better when the injuries hit. Is Andrew Cashner available? Is Medlen at all healthy? I also think they should be bringing in a potential break out guy for DH as well(yes easier said than done) maybe Smoak is that guy, Kyle Blanks is the one i would like to see get a chance. Bullpen.... if Janssen's shoulder is fine and we can get him back cheap due to his bad 2nd half I would be all over that. Don't be trading actual prospects for bullpen arms unless they are the elite.

jerjapan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:39 PM EST (#296404) #

so I just looked it up

I'm obviously outing myself as a luddite here, but I keep getting a 'search disabled' message. anyone got advice for me on how to re-enable the search feature?

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:47 PM EST (#296405) #

"Carrying contracts like Reyes and Buehrle is what makes things untenable."

see this i don't agree with at all.

reyes and buehrle were both productive players last year and worth their salaries in free agent dollars. if we had signed big name FAs to those kinds of deals we couldn't have bern upset at the kind of production we got there.

what hurt the jays imo last year was the $35+mil that was completely wasted on morrow ($8), romero ($7.8), rasmus ($7.0), santos ($3.8), janssen ($4.0), izturis ($3.0), Rogers ($2.0).

we got zero production out of those players, and only the crazy spending teams can afford to outright waste a quarter of their payroll.

i'm not saying those were bad signings necessarily but we just couldn't afford to have so many planned key pieces blow up like that.

Original Ryan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:48 PM EST (#296406) #

I'm obviously outing myself as a luddite here, but I keep getting a 'search disabled' message. anyone got advice for me on how to re-enable the search feature?

Use Google Advanced Search and type in battersbox.ca in the site or domain field.

China fan - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:50 PM EST (#296407) #

".....The team would benefit from an extra push to deepen the roster.... I think the Achilles' heel of the 2015 team as currently constituted is health/depth.... Besides, you now have a great core of elite players. Why wouldn't you want to go the extra mile and construct a world-beating roster, at relatively modest extra cost?...."

I totally agree with all of this.

Gerry - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 07:59 PM EST (#296408) #

Joe disabled search on the site a year or so ago. I don't remember exactly why but I think it was impacting site performance.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 08:23 PM EST (#296409) #

Looks like Melky Cabrera is having a hard time deciding which 5 year deal he should accept.

hypobole - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 08:34 PM EST (#296410) #

"AA should have continued his asset-gathering game until he was ready to spend $ on free agents"

Except Toronto is not a preferred destination whatsoever for free agents. Pitchers really don't want to come here. Ervin Santana last year was a well publicized example. Position players very much don't want to come here. Add in the club policy of 5 years max, and the pool of signable FA's shrinks further.

Of course the Jays could throw more money at their targets and yeah that will work for many. But quality FA's cost a lot, so the budget would be tapped out pretty quickly. Add in the fact the turf would almost assuredly cause more injuries, especially since position players are often over the age of 30 and already have a ton of wear and tear on their bodies. How much value would the team get for the overpay it took to bring the player here?

bpoz - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 09:25 PM EST (#296411) #

Without Buehrle & Dickey I shudder how bad the Jay's would be in 3013.
Now what do we do with them?

I do not consider us a favorite for the playoffs. As of today who are the favorites for the 5 playoff spots?

Not us. Baltimore, Detroit, LAA & Seattle for 4 IMO. The rest of the contenders? Fast start & very fast start.

But we are in the picture. This is good.

cybercavalier - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 10:11 PM EST (#296412) #

Regarding the 5th starter, would a mini "rotation" of pitchers, whom during ST 2015 coaches will have decided to be MLB pitching capable, be cycling in and out of the bullpen help give these pitchers game starting playing time (and evaluation) ?

Say Redmond, Hendriks, Estrada, Sanchez are picked to play in Toronto, Jenkins, Nolin and Drabek are sent to Buffalo for starting experiences. As Estrada's career performance is a slow start from April (as indicated in previous post), Redmond has most starting experiences so far. For the first cycle through the 5th starter slot, Redmond will be the first 5th starter until the 4th or 5th inning (assuming no blowout), Estrada will come in for 6th and 7th, the 8th and 9th inning pitching will be left for the other bullpen arms not mentioned.
For the second cycle, Hendriks or Sanchez pitcher as the 5th starter, Estrada again will fill in the 6th and 7th. Redmond is given a rest for this start but be available as a relieve pitching.
As Estrada's pitching settles in May and beyond, he shall pitch as the 5th starter and Redmond fill in the 6th and 7th. Future roles of Sanchez and Hendriks (for what they worth, Nolin, Jenkins, Drabek) will be decided based on their pitching performance as they then are.

bpoz - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 10:20 PM EST (#296413) #

Days off. Buffalo to Toronto shuttle. And of course options.

I would love to see Jenkins get a fair competition for the 5th spot. IMO he will not get it. It I am right, then where is the competition? Player's beliefs and expectations are important IMO.

David Wells comes to mind as one who did not have a fair opportunity with Toronto. IMO.

uglyone - Thursday, December 11 2014 @ 11:32 PM EST (#296414) #

I'm happy for Jenkins that he's been useful in the bullpen, but he's never even been remotely close to a passable starter at any level.

hypobole - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:56 AM EST (#296415) #

"Looks like Melky Cabrera is having a hard time deciding which 5 year deal he should accept."

CDC tossing some major league snark.

Melky's showing good patience at the plate, just sitting back waiting for one team to throw him that 5 yr hanger. He's going to get his pitch.

John Northey - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:56 AM EST (#296416) #

Checking MLB Trade Rumors I see that Melky has the Royals, Mariners (offered 3 years $42 mil it suggests), with the White Sox and Giants also in the running. The Royals figure he is too expensive but that price might be coming down.

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 09:13 AM EST (#296417) #

Dave Cameron has an interesting comment on the apparent common AL approach- aiming to be a pretty good team almost every year. I'd add that the presence of the second wild card has changed the incentives for teams.

John Northey - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 09:49 AM EST (#296418) #

Just read in the National Post (dead tree edition...at a hotel so I get it free) that John Mayberry has signed with the Mets for $1.45 million. Good deal for the Mets as I think he'd be a good LF/1B guy, the RH half of a platoon. He might have been nice to mix with Smoak at 1B (Smoak lifetime has a 709-650 OPS vs RHP-LHP) but I suspect we'll see someone else at 1B come opening day and the Jays probably didn't want to have a backlog of guys at that position making $1+ mil.

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:07 AM EST (#296419) #

Melky's showing good patience at the plate, just sitting back waiting for one team to throw him that 5 yr hanger. He's going to get his pitch.

I don't think so. While it's hard to put much stock in rumors, the M's are rumored to have offered the same 3 year deal that the Blue Jays are rumored to have offered, with a coincidental difference of exactly one million per year. I think he has a thin market. And if he misses out on the M's there may not be a multi-year at all. Doen't appear to be a lot of activity around him.

whiterasta80 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:10 AM EST (#296420) #

I'm not sure it's fair to lump Jenkins MLB starting numbers in with the rest of his career. He hasn't once had more than a days notice that he was going to start a game.

Not a recipe for a pitcher to prepare.

hypobole - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:19 AM EST (#296421) #

Thanks for the Cameron link, Mike. Certainly makes sense why the Jays, or any other AL team, don't seem to be going "all in".

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:22 AM EST (#296422) #

So there's a chance we can get Melky back on a reasonable contract AA is comfortable offering? That would be excellent news.

Richard S.S. - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 10:36 AM EST (#296423) #

Wins matter, with enough of them, it changes someone's world.
For those who were Starters, the record was: 39-36, not good enough.
For those who were Starters and Relievers, the record was: 28-23, 2/7 in saves, not good enough.
For those who were Relievers, the record was: 16-20, 43/58 in saves, which is bad.
For the record: 83-79,45/65, and that wasn't good enough. The improved Defense will make a big difference. It's hard to be under-achieving in this area and still win games. The addition of Russell Martin may make a huge difference in how games go, and that's significant. The Offense will be better, despite some issues unresolved.

We needed LF,CF,2B and 3 Relief positions to be filled in the Offseason and an upgrade in Defense was required. Defense was improved at 5 positions, the remaining three position being good already. Can the defense be better? Yes, but it doesn't need to be that much better. We filled the LF position. CF will be filled in-house, better defense, offense unknown. (Whether A.A. upgrades here is unknown.) Second Base could be filled in-house, possibly with better offense, but not better offense. (Whether A.A. upgrades here is unknown.) Relief is now the focus of the next phase.

Five of the people who pitched in Relief for this Team are gone. Thank you very much. What's left is sad. Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup might be the only pitchers on this Team good enough to be on everyone's Teams, as 4th/5th-7th in the 'Pen. That's not good enough. Of those remaining to be in the Bullpen and not in the Rotation, no none is as good as or better than Cecil and Loup anywhere in the system. And that is bad.

Pitchers are creatures of habit when they are pitching or will pitch. Starters can be truly weird, but that's not he issue. Relievers like to know who pitches when in a game. Set rolls are important. Even A.A. and Gibbons are governed by that. Having a Closer is important, as it settles rolls quick, removing doubt. Right now we need a big arm to close and a Big RH arm to pitch with Cecil and Loup in late innings. We lost a lot of games after the sixth inning. Cecil, Loup, Jenkins, Redmond and Delabar carry over from Last Year. They were not quite good enough. If Estrada (long relief/spot start) joins Cecil (late innings)and Loup (first in/fireman) in the Bullpen we have four openings: 1) Closer; 2) Late Innings: 3) First In/Fireman; 4) Long Relief. Two of these position must be the best they can be, any two. Two should be filled by the best available in-house. And that as good as it gets.

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 11:00 AM EST (#296424) #

I doubt that Anthopoulos is interested in having Cabrera back now. With the acquisition of Saunders, he has two corner experienced corner OFs and Pillar. Bringing Cabrera back would only make sense if the club was intending to give him significant DH time and move Encarnacion back to first base regularly. That would have a defensive cost, and with Reyes and Donaldson on the left side of the infield maybe not the best idea. Plus the club would lose the compensatory pick.

Richard S.S. - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 11:11 AM EST (#296425) #

As long as A.A. can recoup the pick he loses on Martin (#17-ish), by regaining a pick in the 31-38 range, he will. As long as he can give a Qualifying Offer to gain a pick, he won't be adverse to losing the first pick, if necessary. That opens up the Free Agent market tremendously each year.

jerjapan - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 11:56 AM EST (#296426) #

Toritani would be great, and could move to a utility role when Travis is ready.. Fundamentally sound veterans fit into ths years 'culture change' narrative.

there are several other international free agents that could fit for us at 2b next year - Cuban vets Hector Olivera and Jose Fernandez have had a lot of success and both recently defected, although they are in a limbo state at the moment, and SS Jung-Ho kang was MVP in Korea.

Also, i could see Cabrera back for sure at the price AA has in mind - 3 years, 39 million or so. He's shown with the Donaldson and Martin moves that he will improve solid positions in the lineup, not just holes.

and I'd be money that Jenkins and Drabeck are done as starters. the AAA rotation projects as Norris, Hendricks, Francis and Romero with an org soldier in the 5th spot and nobody knocking on the door in AA - so there is space for them. I just feel that their ceiling right now is middle relief in the bigs.

Thanks Original Ryan for the luddite advice!

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:08 PM EST (#296427) #

Kevin Pillar is an "experienced corner outfielder"? You must consider Anthony Gose a veteran.

greenfrog - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:10 PM EST (#296428) #

I would be very surprised if Cabrera ended up back with the Jays.

It sounds as if payroll parameters are back, and the Jays have bigger priorities (second base, starting pitcher, maybe a reliever or two).

I think a Pillar / Saunders platoon in LF should be more than adequate.

Four Seamer - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:14 PM EST (#296429) #

92-93, I think he means Saunders and Bautista are "experienced corner outfielders", plus Pillar.

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:21 PM EST (#296430) #

Thanks, Four Seamer. You got it. I haven't read much from you here this off-season, and I am curious what you think of the various moves.

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:36 PM EST (#296431) #

Good point, I totally misread that.

I was looking at the Tigers after this Cespedes trade, and noticed that Rajai is now bounced back into his 4th OF role where he'll probably caddy Gose quite a bit. Which made me realize I wish we still had Rajai Davis - a Rajai/Lind platoon would be perfect for this roster, especially because they don't really have a reliable CF right now. Never quite understood breaking that one up but keeping Lind.

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:45 PM EST (#296432) #

I am assuming that you mean Davis/Gose as a CF platoon. Some people (myself included) feel that Pompey/Pillar will provide better offense and defence than Davis/Gose. It's a matter of opinion. Gose hasn't hit much since 2011, and Davis has faded with the glove as he has aged. We shall see.

GregH - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 12:55 PM EST (#296433) #

This might be totally wishful thinking, but is there any chance that Romero, after his knee surgeries, might contribute at the Major League level in 2015?

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:05 PM EST (#296434) #

Well I was more thinking along the lines of Rajai/Lind at DH, with Rajai providing backup to the Saunders & Pillar/Pompey. I never really thought he was good at defense (average at best) and didn't see any drop off in the Tiger games I saw last year. It's a legitimate concern that this offense is still a Bautista/Encarnacion injury away from looking fairly weak.

China fan - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:07 PM EST (#296435) #

On the Romero question: After his disastrous 2012 season, Romero had surgery to "clean up" his left elbow, and he also received platelet-rich plasma treatment in both of his ailing knees. At the time, we thought that might help. It didn't help much, if at all, and I'm sure that's probably still the prevailing feeling about his latest surgery too.

By the way, I'm pleased that this is the 301st post in this thread. Lots of interest in the Jays again this off-season!

Four Seamer - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:12 PM EST (#296436) #

Thanks Mike. I am cautiously optimistic about the moves made to date, although of course they should not be viewed in isolation from the lower-key transactions that remain to be, and must be, completed to grade the off-season as a complete success (no need to repeat the obvious, but some additional resiliency in the form of additional options on the right side of the infield and a few more MLB calibre arms to add to the bullpen mix still strike me as essential). It is hard to reconcile these moves with what they expressly refused to do at the deadline, when perhaps a Headley or a Prado might have injected some energy, enthusiasm, and most importantly talent, but in this case at least viewing the future through prism of the past is a self-defeating exercise. I am sympathetic to the view that in the age of the second wild-card and increasing competitive parity, the soundest strategy is to assemble year in and year out the most competitive ballclub resources permit, and position yourself to capture lightning in a bottle, as it appeared to strike the Royals this year. As this is consistent with my preferences as a fan (while I would dearly love to see another flag or two flying at the Rogers Centre, what I really ache for is a team that consistently plays meaningful games into September, more often than not), I am hopefult that it is the blueprint going forward.

SK in NJ - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:25 PM EST (#296437) #

I think Toritani would be a smart move if only to add more depth in the middle infield. Right now it looks like Reyes, Travis, Izturis, Goins, and Tolleson. Unless Travis pans out right away, that's not a very strong MI core. Adding a versatile OBP-driven player who can play 2B/SS would be helpful. It would give room to start Travis in AAA, and push Goins back down on the depth chart. If/when Reyes has to miss time, then promote Travis and move Toritani to short.

The Jays should be a little better depth wise this season with Valencia (can cover 1B/3B) and Pillar (can cover all OF positions), but they need more. Someone like Chris Denorfia for the OF would be great, which would allow the team to start Pillar in AAA where he can be used as depth. Any prospect with options that can be sent down for a better MLB player should be done at this point. Travis and Pillar are guys who can be useful AAA depth throughout the season. That way they only come up in a time of need, and not with the expectation of adding wins to the team (although Fangraphs loves Travis and expects him to hit right away).

China fan - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:37 PM EST (#296438) #

Toritani, according to some reports, doesn't have the arm strength to play well at SS in the majors, so that's why he's being considered as a 2B option. Also, he'd be more expensive if he could handle SS in the majors. Current speculation is that the Jays could get him for $10-millon over 3 years, which would be affordable.

Toritani seems to have a little more power than Kawasaki (almost anyone would), but his primary strengths are his defence and his OBP skills. He has posted an awesome .400 OBP in his past two seasons in Japan. Scanning the results of other Japanese players who transfered to the majors: most of them seem to lose 30 to 50 points of OBP when they reach the majors. If that happens to Toritani, he'd still be in the same territory as Nori Aoki, who was being touted at one time as a possible LF solution for the Jays. Aoki went from a .400 OBP in Japan to a .353 OBP in the majors. If the same thing happened to Toritani, the Jays would probably be happy.

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:54 PM EST (#296439) #

CF, you can see Toritani's arm strength on the video embedded in Stoeten's article. He has more arm strength than Ozzie Smith and far more than Kawasaki, but much less than Hardy or Ripken. I am pretty sure that he would have played as a regular MLB shortstop when he was 27. I don't know that he would now, but I'd feel better about him backing up Reyes rather than Izturis or Goins.

Thanks, Four Seamer, for your thoughtful perspective.

bpoz - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:55 PM EST (#296440) #

Lester, Scherzer and Shields are all considered pretty good pitchers. If anyone wants to call them an Ace, go ahead.
Buehrle can also be called pretty good/Ace, if anyone is so inclined.

So based on opinion, which is subjective, what is yours, if you have one, in doing a comparison. The other evaluation is "objective". The last 3 to 5 years results can be used to make an objective comparison.

For 2015, 1 yr, they look close, IMO. Shields leads in CGs. All are equal in durability. Lester is 1st in ERA & Buehrle is last.

How equal will they be in 2015? How equal were they in the last 3-5 years?

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 01:56 PM EST (#296441) #

Is this Toritani talk coming solely from the Japanese media? Leaking something to a Japanese reporter seems like the perfect opportunity for Boras to use the Jays as his mystery team.

hypobole - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 02:07 PM EST (#296442) #

Boras himself mentioned the Jays being in on him. Then criticised the 5 yr max policy (although that's moot in this case).

China fan - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 02:14 PM EST (#296443) #

The Toritani talk has come from both the Toronto and Japanese media. The Jays beat reporters have reported that the Jays are interested in Toritani, and then Boras confirmed that "discussions" have been held with the Jays. The information from the Japanese media seemed to emerge a bit later, although it was already being discussed there. The Japanese media have said that several teams are interested in Toritani, but the Jays are "frontrunners." It doesn't seem surprising that the Japanese media would have their own sources on the status of Toritani's negotiations.

Of course we always need to be skeptical about reports of "discussions" or "interest." There's certainly no guarantee that the Jays will get him. But it's more than a random rumor -- it's got some substance to it.

uglyone - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 02:18 PM EST (#296444) #

re: mayberry and davis

Valencia suits that role better than either of them, since he hits lefties better than either of them and actually looks like he might be a plus defender at 1B.

now whether smoak is better than lind for the other half....i dunno.

i think daniel nava played some good D at 1B for the sox in brief stints. the sox still have too many OF, and also need a stopgap vet catcher to help light-hitting rookie vazquez and let swihart have a year in AAA. Navarro for nava, anyone?

or maybe Navarro for Victorino, and move Bautista to 1B?

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 03:21 PM EST (#296445) #

Lots of prospects changed hands at the winter meetings, but amazingly Blitzensen stayed put. I mean, you wanna talk upside, Blitzensen has it.

92-93 - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 03:30 PM EST (#296446) #

I hear he's quite the slick SS.

That similarity score list is fantastic. What's the Ozzie Guillen joke?

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 03:59 PM EST (#296447) #

Maybe it's a reference to this.

China fan - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 04:01 PM EST (#296448) #

I'm skeptical about this kid. If he's from upper Greenland, and he's clearly of German heritage, why is he known as "El Grosso Rojo"?

There's also a clear absence of fielding statistics. What's his UZR?

Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 04:22 PM EST (#296449) #

I don't know about the newfangled metrics. People used to say that 70% of the world is covered by water and that Garry Maddox has the remainder. I have it on good authority that Blitzensen has the water covered too. And throwing, man, Ozzie used to count on Keith Hernandez to scoop, but Blitzensen delivers as consistently as Ripken.

Richard S.S. - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 05:41 PM EST (#296450) #

Noticed this on my browsing:
http://jaysjournal.com/2014/12/12/alex-anthopoulos-blue-jays-prospect-aaron-sanchez-remain-bullpen/

So there's trouble in Trade-land. Two points to remember, Trade Market usually dies around/after Christmas; prices for acquiring anyone is expensive, usually more than most GM's want to pay. But those same reluctant GM's still make the trades.

Sanchez in the Bullpen solves one of A.A,'s problems, but if that happens, A.A.'s acquiring a Starter. That possibility has go up to almost 50%. Who, I don't know, and I don't care. I just want the next thing to happen soon.

dan gordon - Friday, December 12 2014 @ 11:56 PM EST (#296451) #

The Jays have been busy tonight. They've signed 3 players, RP Wilton Lopez, OF Caleb Gindl and 1B Jake Fox. The latter 2 are Buffalo types, but Lopez has a decent chance of helping the Jays' bullpen.

He's been a closer, briefly, and had 3 good years in a row with Houston from 2010 to 2012, with ERA's below 3 each year. He was not as good in 2013, with Colorado, but still OK, with an ERA of about 4.00. Then he had 1 very bad game in his 4th appearance last year, giving up 6 runs, and was immediately demoted to AAA, then designated for assignment in July. Kind of strange. He's an extreme control pitcher, with only 57 career walks in 305 innings. Not a big strikeout guy, with 221 for his career, but that's still a K/BB ratio of about 4 to 1. I'd say that as of right now, he's penciled in for a spot in the pen, but we'll see what else develops.

uglyone - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 09:58 AM EST (#296452) #

lopez is a nice pickup. maybe he's shot but he was pretty good before last year, and he's still in his prime years.

Mike Green - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 11:21 AM EST (#296453) #

Lopez' LD rate went from 17% in 2009-2011 to 24% in 2012 and has moved higher since. He's going to give up a lot of hits. I am not sure that he's a better pitcher than Jenkins, Redmond or Hendriks now. He's a useful guy to check out in spring training.

China fan - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 03:32 PM EST (#296454) #

Lopez was good from 2010 to 2012 but there doesn't seem to be much in his major-league or minor-league record over the past two years to give any glimmer of hope. After his demotion in early 2014, he posted a WHIP of 1.477 at the AAA level. His BB rate was low, but he still gave up 58 hits in 43 innings. Unless the scouts are noticing something that isn't apparent in his statistics, he doesn't seem to offer much promise.

CeeBee - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 04:15 PM EST (#296455) #

I guess it depends on what caused his downturn? Was it injury related, a mechanical issue, something off field or some combination of the 3? I guess spring training will tell the tale.

bpoz - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 04:44 PM EST (#296456) #

I am happy with anyone that we pick up for nothing. This adds to our depth.

We are set at SS with Reyes unless he is traded.

We have a lot of 2B players, but no one has the position locked up. Goins & Izturis also play SS, Tolleson only 2B and all occupy a 40 man roster spot. Goins has options left.
I really like Travis, Berti & Burns as long shots. They are not on the 40 man roster and all project to play in AAA. 200-250 ABs at AAA should test their readiness.

dan gordon - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 10:28 PM EST (#296463) #

Keep in mind that Lopez' AAA stats in 2014 were not only in the Pacific Coast League, but at Colorado Springs. His numbers don't look all that bad considering the extreme hitters' environment. His K/BB ratio was about 6 to 1. I've never really noticed him pitching, but from his stats, maybe he needs to try to be a bit closer to the corners with his pitches. He's walking almost nobody, and might benefit from being off the plate a little bit.

cybercavalier - Saturday, December 13 2014 @ 11:06 PM EST (#296465) #

They've signed 3 players, RP Wilton Lopez, OF Caleb Gindl and 1B Jake Fox. The latter 2 are Buffalo types, but Lopez has a decent chance of helping the Jays' bullpen.

How to tell the latter two are Buffalo types ?

China fan - Sunday, December 14 2014 @ 01:07 PM EST (#296477) #

cybercavalier - Sunday, December 14 2014 @ 08:06 PM EST (#296481) #

"......Keep in mind that Lopez' AAA stats in 2014 were not only in the Pacific Coast League, but at Colorado Springs. His numbers don't look all that bad considering the extreme hitters' environment...."

Interesting point; thanks for adding this to the debate.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140203&content_id=66858162&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

This news piece shares info on park factors in different minor league baseball leagues, focusing on individual parks in the International League and the Pacific Coast League. The ball park in Colorado Springs is not that leaning on extreme hitting and run scoring friendly and more than average home run hitting friendly.

Could this same rationale of possibly skewed numbers due to park factors be applied on hitting ? Based on the Runs Per Game diagram, Buffalo's Cole Aldridge in 2014 had been hitting 1.122 OPS n the Mexican League but was posting .665 in Buffalo. The Mexican League favors runs per game even more than the Pacific Coast League

dan gordon - Monday, December 15 2014 @ 01:48 AM EST (#296488) #

That's a good chart, comparing the park effects for all the AAA parks. I don't know what you mean by this "The ball park in Colorado Springs is not that leaning on extreme hitting and run scoring friendly", but the column in the chart you want to focus on is the "Runs" category. The Colorado Springs park grades at 1.244. What this means is that in games at that park, 24.4% more runs are scored than in the Colorado team's road games, or in other words, the park increases offense by 24.4%, compared to the rest of that league. The league itself is a very offense friendly league, so if you are playing in a park that generates 24% more offense than a league which already produces much more offense than say, the International League (the other major AAA league), then you are playing in a park where it is extremely difficult to produce good pitching numbers, and much easier to put up good hitting numbers.

Note that the average number of runs in the Pacific Coast League is 5.1 runs per game per team, vs 4.4 in the International League. Divide 5.1 by 4.4 and you get 1.16, meaning the average PCL park produces 16% more offense than the average IL park. Now multiply the 1.16 by Colorado's 1.24 and you get 1.44, meaning that games in Colorado will produce, on average, 44% more runs than games in an average IL park.

cybercavalier - Monday, December 15 2014 @ 11:42 PM EST (#296537) #

Note that the average number of runs in the Pacific Coast League is 5.1 runs per game per team, vs 4.4 in the International League. Divide 5.1 by 4.4 and you get 1.16, meaning the average PCL park produces 16% more offense than the average IL park. Now multiply the 1.16 by Colorado's 1.24 and you get 1.44, meaning that games in Colorado will produce, on average, 44% more runs than games in an average IL park.

Multiplying 4.4 runs per game per term in the IL by Buffalo's 1.015 park factor gets 4.466. Analogously, multiplying 5.1 runs in the PCL by Colorado's 1.244 gets 6.3444. Dividing 4.466 by 6.3444 gets 0.704 or 70.4% discount of runs for Wilton Lopez coming from Colorado Springs in 2014 to Buffalo 2015. Lopez earned 22 runs in Colorado, meaning he would earn 15.5 runs in Buffalo in 2015. His ERA would accordingly be 3.22.

By comparing this 3.22 ERA with Buffalo 2014 pitchers carrying similar ERA and IP, Lopez is then comparable to the performances from Stilson and Rogers, ahead of Tapera. Given similar age, could Lopez 2015 performance (if he made the 2015 active roster) comparable to Rogers' 2014 with the Jays?

Then [Lopez] had 1 very bad game in his 4th appearance last year, giving up 6 runs, and was immediately demoted to AAA, then designated for assignment in July. Kind of strange.

Rogers eventually stayed with the Yankees in 2014...

PeterG - Friday, December 26 2014 @ 09:18 PM EST (#296815) #

Kuroda signs with Hiroshima Carp. Is not returning to NY

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