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Recent readers of the Box may be aware of my crusade against the 8-man bullpen. I have nothing against it in principle, except that until September, the active roster for major league teams is limited to 25 players. When rosters expand, if you want a 14-man bullpen, I will raise a figurative glass of ale and say, why the heck not!

I'll add another caveat. On teams with weak starting pitchers wherein several starting pitchers have difficulty reaching the 6th and 7th innings, a three-man bench is defensible as long as at least two players and/or one regular are reasonably versatile. I don't believe the current Jays are in that category.


I define position player versatility as follows: 1) ability to play multiple defensive positions adequately; 2) speed for the purposes of running the bases; 3) ability to hit right and left handed pitching well/switch-hitting ability; 4) above average defensive ability at at least one position.

Let's look at the current best lineup the Jays feature: Tulowitzki SS, Donaldson 3B, Bautista RF, Encarnacion DH, Smoak 1B, Martin C, Goins 2B, Pillar CF, Revere LF. This is the lineup that the Jays set on Friday against the Yankees. Five of those players (the first four plus Martin) are stars and you would never take them out of a game, except due to injury or for rest purposes. I would add Smoak to that list because he is a switch-hitter and by far the best defensive first baseman on the team, and it is usually counterproductive to downgrade your defense in the late innings. That leaves three players that could be subject to a tactical substitution.

Of course, the purpose of a bench is not limited to in-game tactics. Giving your players the occasional day off is almost universally regarded as a good idea in order to keep them fresh. This is especially true later in the season in the hot weather months. Very few players play 155 games or more without ever taking a few innings off and that is because (a) they sustain nagging injuries that require rest and (b) managers realize that even extremely durable players perform better when they get a day or even a few innings off even when healthy.

A good bench should have players capable of handling each defensive position competently and with something not too far below league average hitting ability for the position (e.g. you don't want Kawasaki as your backup first baseman).

OUR TWO-MAN BENCH

Two? Yes. When the Blue Jays start their A lineup, they back it up with a two-man bench. For all practical purposes Dioner Navarro is not part of the position player bench when Russell Martin starts the game. Navarro is not a good enough hitter or baserunner to productively sub in for Martin. And Navarro will rarely if ever pinch hit for anyone else either - if he did he would have to be replaced defensively and thus the Jays would lose their backup catcher and insurance in case Martin needs to come out due to injury. But there is the DH spot, where Navarro could hit and remain in the game, except that he is not going to pinch hit for Edwin Encarnacion either. In this scenario, Navarro's role is limited to subbing in for Martin or for Encarnacion in case of a blowout or injury. He has no pinch hitting tactical value in that role.

Bench player #1 is Chris Colabello. Colabello has had an excellent year hitting and can hit both lefties and righties well. He is a defensive liability at first base and outfield and is a below average runner. In recent weeks, he has been (all but) removed from his role as part-time first baseman due to substandard defense.

Bench player #2 is Cliff Pennington. The veteran acquired from Arizona, believed to be an upgrade over Kawasaki as the utility infielder. Pennington has a solid defensive reputation - however, his batting skills can only be considered adequate for a second baseman or shortstop, and substandard for a third baseman. He is not particularly fast.

To sum up, you have one player with very good pinch hitting utility, one player with good infield defensive utility, and one player with marginal baserunning utility. And that is it. There is no one with above average baserunning skill and no one with defensive outfield utility.

Both players were used in the 9th inning on Friday and the lack of versatility showed as Bench Player #2 had to sub in for Bench Player #1. The Jays burned both their bench players on one lineup spot. Limited bench versatility leads to limited deployment options, which results in opposing managers having an easier time dealing with uncertainties in the latter innings of close games. This is an important tactical point: if your opponent isn't sure what you are going to do, he will have to make his preparations based on best guesses and sometimes those guesses will be wrong. That opens the door to being tactically outmaneuvered.

WHO NEEDS DAYS OFF

The open sore on the current roster construction is the lack of a 4th outfielder, as evidenced by the team's unwillingness to put Colabello out there. A contending team playing through two weeks of baseball without a 4th outfielder on the roster must be exceedingly rare - I can't recall it ever happening before. The minor injury to Encarnacion was an opportunity to give Jose Bautista some rest time at DH, but of course this was not possible. Kevin Pillar has also looked like he needed some time off: he had an uncharacteristically poor defensive game on Thursday against the Athletics and has not hit well in recent weeks. The usual medicine for this situation is to give them a day off or two from running around the outfield.

MY IDEAL ROSTER COMPOSITION

In cases wherein the starting pitchers can be counted on to reach the 6th and 7th innings with regularity, my ideal roster construction is 14 position players and 13 pitchers (with two of them in AAA). Relief pitchers can be recalled from AAA easily if an unusual situation develops causing you to use up too many of your relief pitchers at once, such as a long extra-inning game. I want the position player bench to be versatile: to have one or two players who can hit righties, one or two players who can hit lefties, at least one player with loads of speed, and a couple of guys with defensive ability.

14 position players implies a 5-man bench. Here are the types of players I'd like to see on a bench:

1) The second catcher, used to give the primary catcher at least one day off per week.
2) 4th outfielder with high defensive utility, preferably with pinch hitting and speed value. Could be part of a productive outfield platoon.
3) Utility infielder, with at least good defense at multiple positions, some speed and a decent bat against either lefties or righties
4) A hitter with pinch hitting utility, preferably bats left if your lineup is righty heavy and right if it is lefty heavy. Defensive value and speed is a bonus. Can function as 5th outfielder or platoon first baseman.
5) Choice of...
(a) Third catcher, so that your number two catcher can be used more widely as a pinch hitter.
(b) A very fast baserunner, capable of going first to third on most singles and occasionally stealing a base.
(c) A second utility infielder, preferably hitting left if your first utility infielder hits right, or vice-versa.

The Three-Man Bench and Why it Sucks Here and Now | 57 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#308993) #
Great summary. I don't expect the Jays to go so far as the 5-man bench, but they really need to get a 4th outfielder on to the team.

Dalton Pompey would be perfect. I think that management is being overly cautious, at best, with their line that he's still in AAA because he needs to be playing every day. I don't buy that it's critical to his long-term success and I don't think it would be difficult to get him significant playing time. I'd have him take 2 starts a week from Pillar, 1 from Revere, and 1 from Smoak wherein Bautista shifts to DH and EE to first base.
cybercavalier - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#308994) #
my ideal roster construction is 14 position players and 13 pitchers (with two of them in AAA).

Does that mean a 27-men roster although the extra 2 players can be called up whenever needed ? However in postseason is this calling-up not possible except injury to any of the 25 men ? In that case negating the benefit of getting extra healthy bodies.

Having said that,

Here are the types of players I'd like to see on a bench:

Pompey is almost a perfect match except he cannot catch. With the current pennant race and imminent entry to postseason, Pompey can afford spending 1 month and more on bench after AAA season ends. Meanwhile the Bisons has veteran OFs, Kawasaki and Tolleson. The Bisons has released recently Luke Scott; could Colabello be sent to Triple-A so he will be in the starting lineup, Hague-Colabello batting 3rd and 4th, and polishing his 1B defense ? Kawasaki and Carrera would be up until Triple-A season ends. The transaction of roster would then be decided based on the situation as it then is, say both the Bisons and the Jays entered the postseason.
hypobole - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#309002) #
If you ask tour GM to give you an 8 man pen because you have 8 trustworthy relievers, manage like you have 8 trustworthy relievers.

If you want to manage as if you have a short pen, the 8th and probably even 7th relievers are much better served being replaced by position players with the skills described by Robert.

I've wanted to believe the braintrust knows what they're doing with their roster construction, but Gibbons has made it impossible.
Kasi - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#309004) #
It's not even being treated like that. How many appearances has Sanchez and Lowe had in the last week. It's heavily in Sanchez favor. Maybe if you trade for a stud reliever you should use him.
Kasi - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#309005) #
Basically this is an eight man bullpen treated like a three man. Osuna, Sanchez and Hawkins get all the tough spots, Cecil occasionally gets an inning and the rest only get used in mop up duty or not at all.
short - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#309006) #
Anyone know why Pompey was pulled from last night's game? Call up?
92-93 - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#309007) #
"And Navarro will rarely if ever pinch hit for anyone else either - if he did he would have to be replaced defensively and thus the Jays would lose their backup catcher and insurance in case Martin needs to come out due to injury."

Navarro could've PH for Revere last night, with Martin going to 2B and Pennington to LF for the remainder of the game. I hope the reason Gibbons didn't make that move was because he wanted to see what Revere could do in that spot, and not because he was scared of an injury possibility in extra innings. I thought he may, considering his trust in Navarro in RBI spots.
Chuck - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#309008) #
Navarro could've PH for Revere last night

I was thinking that as well. Despite his relatively rare strikeout, one where he looked as hapless as John Kruk against Randy Johnson, my concern was that if Revere didn't hit a single, he wasn't likely to hit a sac fly and tie the game. Navarro (or Valencia) was perhaps more likely to strike out against Miller but at least presented a sac fly threat.

Vulg - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#309010) #
An 8 man pen makes zero sense in the context of Gibbons' usage (or non-usage) of all those arms. If he was creatively interspersing each pitcher here and there for maximum effect, sure, I'd buy the argument. Such as things are, the extra bench flexibility is clearly more useful than riding 4 guys, using another 2 occasionally and burying the last couple.

Related to usage: While I'm proud that my team bucked convention by making Tulo a leadoff hitter (i.e. I'm very on board with loading the top of your lineup with your best hitters), I'm sad that it still doesn't agree that you should use your best reliever (i.e. Osuna) in dangerous and high-leverage situations. I was watching the 8th inning with a budy last night and we got super-nervous when Sanchez came in. He misses his spots and gets by because his stuff is so nasty it generally doesn't matter that he missed. Osuna is a robot. That should have been his at bat. Any of Lowe, Hawkins or Sanchez could have started fresh in the 9th if you're worried about Osuna's pitch count.

That was extremely frustrating to see play out.
Jdog - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#309012) #
With Revere up you know the chances of a sacrifice fly are negligible Im not sure why you wouldn't bunt to tie the game. A safety squeeze would have been my call there.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#309013) #
Cybercavalier. In the post season, you only need 4 starters, so your bullpen automatically gains an arm. Using 14 position players in the post season means a 7 man bullpen, more than enough with all the off days in the postseason.

But if that really makes you nervous, you can farm out a position player and recall a reliever on August 31st.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#309014) #
About Navarro pinch hitting, Martin to 2b, Pennington to LF. That sure is contrarian thinking! I don't think it is advantageous, though. Whatever marginal utility you gain by increasing your chances of winning or tying over versus using Revere, you more than lose by horrendously weakening your defense in extra innings. Notice that analysis does not include the injury risk to Martin.

Any manager who would do that would never be in that situation because they would be clever enough to have the proper defensive subs on the bench, or at least let Colabello run for himself and have Pennington in reserve.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#309017) #
Jdog. Trying to bunt well with the infield in is a highly refined skill and I'm not sure there is a major leaguer who can or could do it consistently well since Brett Butler retired. Nevertheless, as Zaunie pointed out today, Revere is very very far from an accomplished bunter. Against a normal lefty, a suicide squeeze is an option, but not so against Andrew Miller and his nuclear slider.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#309019) #
As a matter of principle, I agree with Robert. 

I do think that it is important to acknowledge that roster composition is negotiated between the general manager and the manager.  John Gibbons has over his career exhibited a preference for a longer bullpen, and I suspect that the back-to-back starts for Estrada and Hutchison  play a role in bringing this preference to the fore right here and right now.  I reiterate that I don't agree with it, but I am far from surprised.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#309020) #
Every team must have two catchers, neither of whom usually plays another position well. You must have two Catchers, so neither are/should be considered part of the Bench. Your DH is useful if he plays an actual position well enough to not be a downgrade at that position.

Whatever else is needed is what the Manager wants. It might not be the best make up for the Bench, but it is his decision.

Fourth Outfielder: needs to be MLB-quality, not what A.A usually finds. He must be at least average or better at Center, Right or Left.

Middle Infielder: needs to be MLB-quality, usually younger than what A.A. usually finds. He must be at least average or better at 2B, SS and possibly 3B.

It's always hard to make up a quality Bench because of how good they must be and what they can play. The needs of the Bench should control the size of the Bullpen, not the other way around. If the Bullpen must control the size of the Bench, then get a better Bullpen.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#309022) #
I think they should go back to the 60's baseball. 23 man rosters, 4 starting pitchers at most, no DH and 4 or 5 man bullpens. We would have less saves, more complete games, pitchers with 250+ innings pitched and 1 game a week on TV(national game of the week only)
The above may be taken with a grain of salt, or a shot of whiskey or whatever else may be your poison. :) but... a 3 man bench sucks. Even a 4 man bench is not enough. Maybe a 27 man roster with a 13 pitcher limit is the answer?
scottt - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#309056) #
There's no use for Loup on this team anymore. He's a reliever with an ERA over 5.00 and that's not because he had a bad week or 2. He's been equally bad every month of the year. And he still has 3 options. If anything he's getting worse for lack of use.
cruzin - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#309065) #
I'm sure I've already indicated my dislike for the 8 man bullpen. I think it really speaks to Gibbons non-confidence in his starting rotation or his need to over manage a bullpen.

August is always seen as a grind and maybe it's starting to take it's toll on some of the position players who are projecting to reach their all time highs for games played in a season. The 8 man bullpen is simply a luxury that the Blue Jays can't afford especially since the recent 8th man is practically never used.
John Northey - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#309068) #
The 8 man pen can work if you have 8 good pitchers who can be interchanged at will.  The problem is we have 7 plus Loup.  Loup was effective before this season but if you look at FIP he wasn't as good as it seemed....
2012: 1.92 FIP 2.64 ERA
2013: 3.32 FIP 2.47 ERA
2014: 3.83 FIP 3.15 ERA
2015: 3.89 FIP 5.05 ERA

As they say a relievers ERA can be misleading but FIP takes away a lot of the randomness and you get a clearer picture.  Loup has been getting worse.  This year is bizarre with the 1.5 BB/9 vs 10.1 K/9 which should mean he is very effective but the 1.5 HR/9 is the killer.  You cannot give up home runs at that pace and survive.

Loup could be useful in the long man position or to face 1 LH at a time when necessary.  But right now after the horrid year he is having I'd avoid anything with any kind of pressure unless no other practical option is left.  Right now he should be back in AAA while someone else gets a shot - Wolf has done great in AAA and deserves a shot, why not put him in that slot given how bad things have gone for Loup.  Call Loup back in September.

Now, would another hitter be nice?  Sure.  But remember who manages this team... would he actually use another outfielder?

Thomas - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#309069) #
The 8 man pen can work if you have 8 good pitchers who can be interchanged at will.

Why stop there? A 9 man pen can work if you have 9 good pitchers who can be interchanged. So could a 10 man pen.

The fact you have 8 good relief pitchers doesn't mean that you have to have all of them on your major league roster. Particularly if you have a strong starting staff led by three workhorses.

Every day you can come up with new numbers that illustrate how infrequently some of the club's relievers are being used. Between August 7 and today (including both dates), Hendriks, Loup, Schultz and Lowe have combined to throw 6 innings. And undoubtedly we'll hear about the need for an 8 man tomorrow if Hutchison leaves the game in the fourth inning, but I don't believe another batter or two in addition the 1.1 innings Hendriks has thrown in the last 10 days would stop him from eating up needed innings in a blowout.

The 8th man in the bullpen is Gibbons' security blanket.

John Northey - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#309070) #
I agree it shouldn't be needed.  Gibbons is just addicted to having it from what I can tell.  I know Tony LaRussa would've gone with a 10+ man pen if he was allowed.  I think it would be great if the union in the next agreement said OK to a salary cap sorta (expansion of the current setup) in exchange for a 26 man roster with a cap on pitchers allowed on the roster at a time of 12 during the non-September time.  That would allow bigger benches, and would prevent guys like Gibbons from going nuts with the pen.  For the union it would also mean 30 more jobs (more than adding an expansion team).  If the cap is tightened a bit then it would be a benefit for the owners too.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#309072) #
In Bill James parlance, I believe that John Gibbons is a "fear manager". He seeks to eliminate as many difficult decisions as he can, especially in-game, wherein he does not have the luxury of a lot of time to contemplate them.

An 8-man bullpen with a pre-defined pecking order with most everyone limited to one inning no matter how they are throwing or what the game situation is, is as close as you can practically come to decision free in-game relief use (unfortunately he still has to decide when to take the starter out - no way to avoid that).

The extremely short bench, with one catcher, one hitter and one utility infielder relieve Gibbons of almost all in-game position player decisions. He has even managed to eliminate all decisions pertaining to his starting outfield! That is groundbreaking stuff for the "fear manager"!

Now before all the AA/Gibbons acolytes jump on me, I think there is good reason to believe that Gibbons has strengths as a manager in the realm of interpersonal relationships. This is reminiscent of the most successful manager in team history, Cito Gaston. This team is full of stars who've been around the block - just the kind of teams Cito had from 1989 to 1993. The team is constructed to minimize the negative aspects of Gibbons' "decision phobia". At least that's my current hypothesis.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 15 2015 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#309073) #
Northey. Your idea is much too daring to have MLB let it see the light of day. Personally, I like it.
John Northey - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#309074) #
One can always dream.  Another change I'd like is no pitching changes mid-inning until a pitcher has given up at least one run.  That would lessen the need for 8 man pens and would speed up games.
Dez - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#309077) #
I don't see where the idea that gibbons doesn't use his bench comes from. Gibbons is actually forward thinking compared to most managers -at least he understands left right splits. He ran the catalanotto-reed Johnson and rios-hinske platoons, and was effectively using Valencia earlier. There are many managers that would stick Valencia against rhps just because. He also platooned rasmus and Lind despite calls from traditionalists to play them every day.

At this point yes the 8 man pen is a little ridiculous. Now that we know revere isn't very good hopefully it will be over soon.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#309078) #
...Now that we know revere isn't very good...

Another person who's opinion appears to be set in stone, despite warnings, on this site, about small sample sizes. Expecting long time NL hitters to flourish immediately in the AL is foolish and contrary to established precepts. There's always an extended time of adjustment.

Ben, who isn't any good, Revere in 603 Games, 2467 Plate Appearances and 2319 At Bats has a .291 career average, with a career OBP of .324 and not big power, .343 SLG. In my opinion, that's just fine on this present team.
Lylemcr - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#309080) #
In the AL, have a deep bench is not as important as the AL.

We lost the last 2 games because Yankees Pitching > Blue Jay Pitching. I am not sure where the last man on the roster would have made a difference. If the top 5 hitters are not hitting them, how the hell is a player from the bench going to hit them?
Today, this is a must- Hutchinson > Servino. Since they lost the first 2 against the Yankees, I think they should be starting Dickey today. Just for no other reason that it seems to mess them up.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#309082) #
At the risk of kicking the hornets nest, one question I would like to hear addressed specifically is if the eight man pen is so objectively foolish, why do so many smart organizations do it?

I took a quick look at all 25 man rosters as of this morning. 

Milwaukee, St. Louis, Toronto, Chicago Cubs, San Fran, Washington, Cinci, KC (arguably the best pen in the game) and Minnesota all have 13 pitchers on the active roster.  

Phillie and oakland have 8 relievers and four starters at the moment, the Rays and the Red Sox have 7 relievers and four starters - so possibly they might be down to a six man pen if a reliever is demoted for a starter or moved into the rotation  

The Cubs - possibly in possession of the best management duo in the game with Maddon/Epstein, Cards and Giants are certainly amongst the best run franchises of the decade.  

Roughly a third of big league teams are doing this.  why?  the 'fear based manager' idea is interesting but impossible to prove - and I know a guy like Maddon is not afraid to make decisions. 

Lylemcr - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#309085) #
You also have to look at the makeup of the starting pitchers vs starting hitters. With the age of the pitchers and the ability of the starting hitters, I think it would be more likely that we need an extra releiver.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#309086) #
The "Fear Manager" or "Fear Based Manager" concept is relatively new/newly discovered. All the 'wanna-be' baseball experts are breaking the fingers trying to fit Gibbons in the mould.

Do they understand the article as the Author wrote it? Probably not. Is it just their opinion of their interpretation of the article? That's most likely whether accurate or not. Do they understand Gibbons as well as they should? Of course not.

Ten people read the same item. Chances are exceptional good you will have ten different understandings of what was read, because you'll have at least ten different explanations of what was read. Right and wrong don't matter when discussing opinions, they just are. Taking the next step is where problems arise, and we shouldn't go there.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#309087) #
Look at the Cubs- they've got Montero, Ross and Schwarber behind the plate (and Schwarber also plays left-field), Bryant, Russell, Castro, Herrera and Rizzo in the infield, and Coghlan (who also plays second base), Denorfia, Fowler and Soler in the outfield.  The absence of the DH and positional flexibility allows the organization to get by reasonably well with 12 position players. 
Oceanbound - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#309091) #
If the 8 man bullpen is so good, it should be easy to explain the positives. It shouldn't be the other way around, the opponents of the 8 man bullpen shouldn't also have to justify why teams do it.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#309095) #
Mike green, that's a good explanation for the cubs, although with the versatile Pennington added to the jays, we aren't that far behind in positional versatility. I do love a catcher that can play elsewhere, so that's a big plus for the cubbies. (And why I loved yan gomes before his breakout).

The dh is a good point and may explain St. Louis and San Fran going with 8, but what about kc? Young, athletic, versatile and yet their eight man pen (at present) may be the best in the game.

Oceanbound, if you read these endless threads, plenty of arguments have been presented for the 8 man pen. I prefer seven myself, but believe challenging groupthink is vital and have given several arguments for the 8 man as thought experiments. Feel free to challenge any of em!
scottt - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#309106) #
but what about kc? Young, athletic, versatile and yet their eight man pen (at present) may be the best in the game.

Have you seen the Royal rotation? Their best pitcher is their closer. I mean they only have 2 pitchers with more than 100 innings pitched and one of them is Jeremy Guthrie. Is there an argument that an 8th reliever is not useful when you starters average 5 innings per game? Not from me.
cruzin - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#309107) #
"At the risk of kicking the hornets nest, one question I would like to hear addressed specifically is if the eight man pen is so objectively foolish, why do so many smart organizations do it?"

Exactly as scottt pointed out, there are times where an 8 man bullpen makes sense. But when your starters are going deep like the Blue Jays rotation has and coupled with the off days available this month, there's practically no reason to go with an 8 man pen.

Speaking of which, Loup has finally been optioned down. Now the question becomes who is coming up? I truly hope it's an OF and not another bullpen arm.
Dave Till - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#309110) #

Interesting article. Some random thoughts:

1) The second catcher, used to give the primary catcher at least one day off per week.

That's Navarro - no problem.

2) 4th outfielder with high defensive utility, preferably with pinch hitting and speed value. Could be part of a productive outfield platoon.

Had Saunders been healthy, this would have been Pillar, who actually has pretty much this skill set. An outfield of Revere-Pillar-Bautista is strong enough defensively that you don't need a defensive fourth outfielder, but a defensive outfielder might be required if you want to pinch-hit for Pillar (who hasn't been hitting in August).

3) Utility infielder, with at least good defense at multiple positions, some speed and a decent bat against either lefties or righties

Pennington doesn't have all of these qualifications, but he's about as good as was available in the market.

4) A hitter with pinch hitting utility, preferably bats left if your lineup is righty heavy and right if it is lefty heavy. Defensive value and speed is a bonus. Can function as 5th outfielder or platoon first baseman.

This sounds like Colabello.

So if Saunders had been here, the Jays' roster would have been only one bench player short of Robert's ideal.

Good bench players are hard to find, because if they were good, they wouldn't be bench players! I can think of three types of players that appear on a typical bench:

  • Defensive specialists that don't play regularly because they don't hit enough. John McDonald was the classic example of this. Ryan Goins would be too if Devon Travis was healthy.
  • Hitters who can't field, and don't hit enough to be the fulltime DH.
  • Players who can do a little bit of everything, and can fill in a gap if somebody gets hurt.

Bench players are also useful when regulars need rest, but one thing I realized is that the Jays' starting lineup is younger now. The only starters over 30 are Bautista, Martin, and Encarnacion, and EE is mostly DHing these days. Tulowitzki is the only player who seems to need a day off now and then, and he's had two since he got here. Pillar and Donaldson, in particular, seem close to indestructible.

In Bill James parlance, I believe that John Gibbons is a "fear manager". He seeks to eliminate as many difficult decisions as he can, especially in-game, wherein he does not have the luxury of a lot of time to contemplate them.

I'm wondering whether this is just that players prefer to have a role, especially pitchers, since it helps them prepare and visualize and stuff.

Gibbons may be reluctant to make unusual in-game decisions, but he has been creative in the past in his roster management. Last year, he was willing to move Brett Lawrie to second; this year, he's batting Tulo leadoff instead of batting him fifth and leading off with Revere (the fast guy). He's also sticking with a 20-year-old as his closer; a scared manager would probably start giving the save opportunities to Hawkins or maybe Lowe. A scared manager would also probably not go with Sanchez as his eighth inning guy.

Dave Till - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#309111) #
One more thought: the roster size of 25 was set back when the average pitching staff contained ten pitchers, and occasionally got by with 9. In the 1970s and 1980s, a pitching staff usually compiled about 20 complete games a year (the 1983 Jays had 43).

To make up for the lack of complete games, and therefore an increase in the number of pitchers required, it would make sense to raise the roster size to 27 from 25. A few managers would use this to add yet more pitchers, but it's more likely that they would add bench guys. However, the Lords of Baseball would probably rather set their surplus cash on fire than spend it on two more major-league salaries.
PeterG - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#309117) #
I agree Dave. The 25 man roster no longer makes sense.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#309118) #
Of course since the 70s two things have happened with pitchers. The first is that starters have been asked to do less - you can call this the reign of the pitch count. The second is that frontline relievers rarely pitch more than an inning at a time. The 80s was a time when closers were first asked to work only one inning. Then loogies came into vogue. Then even set up men became limited to one inning.

So more innings to pitch and shorter stints means more relief pitchers. The idea was to get favourable platoon matchups, but that isn't even what drives a lot of decisions anymore: you see a relief pitcher have a clean 7th, then another of the same type comes in for the 8th. You are increasing their workload by increasing appearances without increasing innings. Most of the old timers will tell you its a lot easier to pitch 80 innings in 55 games than 70 in 70.

So what happens is that the Jays have 6 vaguely similar hardthrowing right handers in the pen and when the starters are performing well, some of them get worked heavily, such as Sanchez (because the 8th inning of a close game is his) and others, say Schultz, aren't used because their role is to pitch in the 6th or 7th if the starter can't.

The entire set up is grossly inefficient. There isnt much tactical lefty-righty stuff, some relievers get used up, others rust, shorter stints actually increase workload and increase the chances of being caught without sufficient arms in the case of a long extra inning game.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#309120) #
Cruzin, have you read the other threads and my other posts?  I have repeatedly stated that I prefer the 7 man bullpen, and have consistently argued exactly what you just said.   

Have you seen the Royal rotation? Their best pitcher is their closer.

Scott, the best pitcher for the Royals is Johnny Cueto.  Wade Davis is the best reliever.  Greg Holland, the closer, is not even their second best (Herrerara) and Madson might give him a run for third.  Cueto was acquired at the trade deadline, just as our best pitcher, David Price, was. 

so you seem to be arguing that a mediocre at best rotation might warrant an eight man pen.  I would argue that until 2 or 3 weeks ago, our rotation was solid but underachieving - our results were not that much better than the Royals.  so fine, we now have 2+ weeks with Price, and mounting evidence to prove that Dickey and Hutch are operating at the level we hoped / expected, and that Estrada may not turn into a pumpkin after all - so sure, demote that 8th guy. 

Full stop, all I'm trying to do is play devil's advocate.  Some people have taken the time to articulate compelling arguments against the 8 man pen, and some seem., IMO, to be following the groupthink. 


Craig B - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#309122) #
Robert and I have similar views (not surprising) on how to build rosters to win ballgames. However. Does this team need a long, strong bench of five? The Jays have five regular starters it roughly never makes sense to substitute. That means that all the substitution games need to be played with the bottom four in the lineup... some combination of Smoak/Colabello, Revere, Pillar, and Goins. (When/if Travis can return, he also should probably never be substituted... he sometimes looks goofy in the field, but by crikey he gets the job done). Note the distribution there... two lefties, two righties, and a switch-hitting first baseman perceived as suboptimal against lefthanders. Yes, if you're unwilling to use Navarro (who is an ideal pinch-hitter in some situations) in that role, you are making yourself just about a man short... Colabello/Smoak take care of one PH role and Pennington can either sub for that man if we need an infielder or PH the other side, to take care of Goins versus lefties (he doesn't need to PH for Revere... if Revere is to be PH for, it must be by Colabello, no one else provides enough oomph to be worthwhile). Pillar is an interesting case. He is widely seen as so fine defensively, and the Jays are so limited in their other CF options (Revere's arm being a limiting factor in using him there) that there might be no way of using any current club personnel (with one exception) effectively to substitute for him except against the power-pitching rigties that destroy him. Thankfully Colabello and Smoak don't mind that stuff. So the central problem is, in my view, game situations where (1) you need someone to run to score a critical run; (2) you need someone to hit for Goins AND someone else in a single critical sequence if you're really scared about the catcher; and (3) Pillar with the game on the line, overmatched against closers. Of those, I think (3) happens the most. So my view is, we'd actually be pretty fine with 13. The missing ingredient is Dalton Pompey. He ticks the boxes: can really play center, he can pinch-run, he can be another source of a pinch hit, he is another genuine switch-hitter who can pinch-hit for Goins or Revere situationally (or Pillar against that closer type), and most of all is hitting three freaking fifty since he got the kick up the butt of the AA demotion. The right mix is thirteen right now, in my view, with Pennington NOT having to do any pinch hit duties, since there would be two good switch-hitting base hit types on the bench waiting at most times. Plus, Pompey's just better than Revere. He should be here, Revere should still be around. That's thirteen real players and twelve pitchers, we still have a seven-man bullpen to baby everyone, and you're done.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#309123) #
Jerjapan. Davis just came back from an injury during which he was active but unavailable. Therefore, for quite some time they were functionally a 7 man pen. The Royals have Zobrist who can play infield and outfield, they have Dyson who is a terrific 4th outfielder as well.

You can't simply count up the roster spots without considering the versatility issue.
Craig B - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#309124) #
Sorry, will reformat here with paragraph breaks.

Robert and I have similar views (not surprising) on how to build rosters to win ballgames.

However.

Does this team need a long, strong bench of five? The Jays have five regular starters it roughly never makes sense to substitute. That means that all the substitution games need to be played with the bottom four in the lineup... some combination of Smoak/Colabello, Revere, Pillar, and Goins. (When/if Travis can return, he also should probably never be substituted... he sometimes looks goofy in the field, but by crikey he gets the job done).

Note the distribution there... two lefties, two righties, and a switch-hitting first baseman perceived as suboptimal against lefthanders. Yes, if you're unwilling to use Navarro (who is an ideal pinch-hitter in some situations) in that role, you are making yourself just about a man short... Colabello/Smoak take care of one PH role and Pennington can either sub for that man if we need an infielder or PH the other side, to take care of Goins versus lefties (he doesn't need to PH for Revere... if Revere is to be PH for, it must be by Colabello, no one else provides enough oomph to be worthwhile).

Pillar is an interesting case. He is widely seen as so fine defensively, and the Jays are so limited in their other CF options (Revere's arm being a limiting factor in using him there) that there might be no way of using any current club personnel (with one exception) effectively to substitute for him except against the power-pitching rigties that destroy him. Thankfully Colabello and Smoak don't mind that stuff.

So the central problem is, in my view, game situations where (1) you need someone to run to score a critical run; (2) you need someone to hit for Goins AND someone else in a single critical sequence if you're really scared about the catcher; and (3) Pillar with the game on the line, overmatched against closers. Of those, I think (3) happens the most.

So my view is, we'd actually be pretty fine with 13. The missing ingredient is Dalton Pompey.

He ticks the boxes: can really play center, he can pinch-run, he can be another source of a pinch hit, he is another genuine switch-hitter who can pinch-hit for Goins or Revere situationally (or Pillar against that closer type), and most of all is hitting *three freaking fifty* since he got the kick up the butt of the AA demotion.

The right mix is thirteen right now, in my view, with Pennington NOT having to do any pinch hit duties, since there would be two good switch-hitting base hit types on the bench waiting at most times. Plus, Pompey's just better than Revere. He should be here, Revere should still be around. That's thirteen real players and twelve pitchers, we still have a seven-man bullpen to baby everyone, and you're done.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#309125) #
I agree with Craig about Pompey (the no 4th outfielder approaches the most absurd roster construction I've seen). But how about Thole as the 3rd catcher? Martin won't have to catch Dickey (it really seems as if that is affecting his offensive game), Martin can DH once in a while, Martin and Navarro can now comfortably be used as pinch hitters without worrying about defensive issues. Bo Schultz, Delabar and Tepera can be the 26th, 27th, and 28th men in AAA.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#309126) #
Robert, my point is not to make a definitive statement about the Royals all year - I haven't got enough time to break down which teams have 8 man pens throughout the year - but rather, as I stated in my post, to note that as of today, one third of the teams in MLB have 8 man bullpens, including many - the Cubs, Cardinals, Royals, Giants and us - who are considered good or great organizations with quality GMs / managers / track records. 

I agree that the versatility issue is key - as mentioned in my reply to Mike Green - and love Dyson as a 4th OF - Pompey would be Dyson+ in my perfect roster.  ben zobrist has been my man crush for years due to his versatility (just check any of the off season threads where we talked about favourite off season targets - just please ignore the bits when I talk about signing Tori Hunter).  IMO, Pennington has the same level of versatility defensively, but nowhere near the bat of zobrist 

But what about the Cards?  The Giants?  It feels to me like people here are just picking one team, arguing why it's inevitable that they'd have an 8 man pen, and ignoring the rest.  surely ALL these organizations aren't run by people who know less than we internet fans?

All I'm arguing is that it is not definitively wrong to have an 8 man pen.

That said, I'm super happy Loup got demoted, and have argued for that move for a while  (it has to be an OF coming up, no?)  - partly so that we can finally stop talking about this and celebrate the awesomeness that is the first meaningful August baseball the Jays have played in 20+ years! 

  
Kasi - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#309128) #
Cards aren't using 8 relievers atm. They are actually currently running 6 starters. (something the Mets did earlier this year as well) People already pointed out why at this moment the Royals are running 8 (since they had a guy they didn't want to put on the DL). As for the Giants well a quick look at their team does show that their manager seems to use all 8 of his relievers, something that we won't have to deal with now with Loup going down.

The thing that people pointed out is that this 8 man bullpen didn't work, not necessarily because of just using it at all but in how the Jays used it. They had 2 lefties and one they didn't use. Then they had 6 very similar RHP, but since the manager uses defined roles so strongly basically half of those pitchers aren't getting enough innings. (Lowe, Schultz, Hendriks) Add to that the well known issues with the bench and subs on this team and it was easy to point out that this 8 man pen didn't work. Not because all 8 men pens are bad, but the roster setup here clearly was.
Craig B - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#309129) #
All 8 man pens are bad though, and this is a big part of the point being made. There is never a call for six righthanders in a bullpen; it's a nonsensical devotion of resources, like having four first basemen or five catchers. You can barely dream up a scenario where, in the context of a game or even a series, where four righthanded relievers plus a closer can't get you through, and provided that one guy can throw 40 pitches every other day or so, you can really make do with three plus the closer in almost all circumstances. The exception is the 17-inning type of game--that always demands a roster change afterward anyway.
Kasi - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#309131) #
There could be an argument or debate on the merits of an eight man pen if used properly. Most of this discussion focused around the lack of pinch hit options and subs for days off, but if the eight man pen was filled with specialists than there could be some debate. But it's a closer, a bunch of RHP who are all similar but only half get used, and two lefties of which only one gets used and used incorrectly at that (Loup should only ever face platoon match ups). AA enabled Gibbons desires here and he in turn ran the team like we had a five man bullpen.
Kasi - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#309132) #
Oops meant that the second lefty when used gets used incorrectly. Loup has made it clear he should never face righties.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#309136) #
At the end of the day kadi, I think you nailed it. AA enabled gibbons where he should be taken the choice out of his hands.

Craig b, four 1b or five catchers? Straw man fallacy all the way bro. Name a team that even carries four catchers
Kasi - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#309142) #
Well there is the Tony La Rusa bullpen right? Basically ride your starters but fill your pen with a mix of guys who can handle any situation in aggregate. I don't agree with it since it leads to high usage numbers for a bunch of 1 or 2 out pitchers, but it is a valid strategy. That kind of strat needs a big bullpen to make work. But if you're going to manage where Osuna always gets the ninth, Sanchez always gets the eight and so on. If you're not going to play match ups than give Gibbons the seven best relievers you can and call it a day.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#309144) #
It's funny, but if you look at the 1989 Athletics, they had a deep bench and never an 8 man pen. And, this shocked me, every reliever with 5 or more appearances averaged more than an inning per game - even Eck, even Honeycutt. I should say all but swing man Matt Young. That "La Russa pen" must be of later vintage. And they had Tony Phillips, who played all over the diamond.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#309145) #
As you go forward in time with the La Russa A's, Eckersley continues to average more than an inning until 1994, but the two main pen lefties (there always seem to be two) fall below an inning a game. The right handers continue to average more. The starting rotation ages and their innings and effectiveness drop. If La Russa invented the loogie, it happened around 1991.
John Northey - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#309150) #
In 1989 relievers being used as LOOGY's or closers used for just one inning wasn't done often if at all.  On the Jays you had Tom Henke closing with 1 1/3 IP per game, Duane Ward setup 1 2/3 IP per game, David Wells LH setup just shy of 1 2/3 IP per game.  Similar in 1990.  in 1991 Henke was barely over 1 IP per game, but Ward & Timlin were in setup roles way over 1 IP per game with both over 90 IP Ward in 81 games, Timlin just 60.  1992 we saw Henke drop under 1 IP per game at long last, Ward over 100 IP again, Ben McDonald & David Wells & Mike Timlin all well over 1 IP per game.

So if anyone wonders why Ward's arm finally fell off after 1993 (only 71 2/3 IP that year) I think we can see why.  5 years in a row of 100+ IP in relief.  Can you imagine if the Jays did that with any pitcher today?  That started at age 24 for Ward.

The game has changed a lot.  Some good ways some not so good.  I miss the platooning of Bobby Cox although he was a slave to it which cost the Jays in the 1985 playoffs.  Today where would you platoon?  1B, LF are the only spots and the Jays are sorta doing that with Cola & Smoak.  Revere and Valencia might have been effective in LF but that ship has long sailed.  Revere and Pompey might work though (not a strict platoon). 
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#309155) #
I can't see how Cola and Smoak are a platoon. We haven't faced any lefties and Cola's only played 1b once since he screwed up Donaldson's throw in the dirt against Minnesota. At this point EE and Cola will spell Smoak when Gibbons doesn't like Smoak's chances against a given pitcher, or someone like Martin or Bautista DH for a day and Gibby wants EE's bat in there too.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 16 2015 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#309156) #
Not that he is near Ward levels of work, but Girardi is using Betances in a more old fashioned way. Last I checked, he leads the AL in relief innings.
christaylor - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#309237) #
...and the 8 men pen is gone. I'm asking this without snark, but does anyone else think that tiny complaints are going to be the norm as this team heads into the home stretch of the season?

My reasoning is that all of us are turning more attention to the Jays. In the case of the casual fan, that is merely remembering that the Jays exist, but with the die hards who've been around during the impressively consistent decade of mediocrity the increased attention manifests itself with 25th man and quirky roster choices.
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