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April is the cruelest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.


Don't you know by now? If it's April, the Blue Jays must have a losing record.


This is not a new thing. Just look at the last 15 Aprils.

Data Table Time!

Year     W    L     RS     RA    Pct. 
2016    8    9    65    62    .471
2015    11   12    122    115    .478
2014    12   14    120    119    .462
2013    10   17    104    137    .370
2012    12   11    105    96    .522
2011    13   14    125    118    .481
2010    12   12    110    108    .500
2009    15    9    142    112    .625
2008    11   17    116    112    .393
2007    13   12    129    106    .520
2006    12   11    135    125    .522
2005    13   12    122    118    .520
2004    7   15    100    120    .318
2003    10   17    149    178    .370
2002    8   16    124    172    .333
They've played really well in April exactly once, and that was the year they were supposed to lose 90 plus games.

In fact, since the team began playing way back in 1977, they've posted their worst over-all record (424-456, .482) in the cruellest month. But it's also somewhat characteristic of teams managed by John Gibbons. Gibbons has a winning record as a major league manager, but in April his teams have played .463 (82-95) ball. This was also practically a defining characteristic of teams managed by Earl Weaver, of course, so it's not something that actually bothers me.

In the process of looking at Gibbons, all the other Jays' managers were swept up into the net. The best guy to run the team in April? Cito Gaston, by a mile. This has little to do with the quality of his teams - Gaston managed a lot of pretty bad teams while he was here - Bobby Cox, Jimy Williams, and Tim Johnson all have better winning percentages as a Toronto manager. But Gaston's teams played .559 (119-94) ball in April. This is something that strikes me as highly ironic, because twice Gaston came on board as a mid-season replacement - he didn't manage any games at all April 1989 or April 2008. But Gaston and Bobby Cox (42-38, .525) are the only Toronto managers whose teams won more games than they lost in the first month of the season.

Do not read too much into this. The most successful managers in September were Tim Johnson in his one year (17-8, .680) and Jimy Williams (51-31, 622). If you were there, you remember Williams' 1987 team losing their last seven in a row, and four of those games came at the end of September. But prior to that fateful losing streak, they'd gone 19-5 in September 1987. The following year, having fallen three games below .500 and 10.5 games out of the pennant race, they posted a 20-7 mark in September to make the final season mark look a little more respectable.

All right, Oakland comes to town. We have matchups!

Fri. - Gray (2-1, 2.33) vs Sanchez (1-0, 1.35)
Sat. - Bassitt (0-0, 2.79) vs Happ (2-0, 1.89)
Sun. - Surkamp (0-1, 3.68) vs Hutchison (---, -.--)

Danny Valencia is headed to the DL with a strained hammy. The A's are expected to call up utility infielder Tyler Ladendorf to fill the roster spot, while playing Chris Coghlan at third.


A's at Jays, 22-24 April | 247 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#321490) #
Apparently Shapiro just re-signed one of his biggest mistakes - Michael Bourn.

I'm guessing for a bit cheaper than last time.

I like him better than Carrera already.
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#321491) #
Maybe this'll be the series the offense wakes up. Maybe....
SK in NJ - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#321495) #
Jays have signed Michael Bourn. Not expecting much out of him but he has the advantage of not being Carrera, so that's a plus. Solid 4th OF gamble.
Anders - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#321500) #
But do I dare to eat a peach, that is the real question.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#321501) #
State of the Franchise, after running the AL East gauntlet to start the year. (Little bit different being the big dog. Those teams weren't messing around and came at us hard.)

Starters Performing (4): Donaldson 186wrc+, Bautista 179, Saunders 157, Edwin 116
Starters Struggling (5): Tulowitzki 54wrc+, Pillar 53, Goins 44, Martin 3, Colabello -39

Bench Performing (1): Smoak 146wrc+
Bench Struggling (3): Barney 58wrc+, Thole 40, Carrera -20

Smoak has already started to take playing time from Cola, and that'll probably continue for now. Would be nice to see Barney get a bit more play. Carrera can't have much job security, and the Bourn signing might indicate that.

Starters Performing (3): Sanchez 36era-, Happ 50, Estrada 66
Starters Struggling (2): Stroman 110era-, Dickey 162

The good guys are backed up by mostly good underlying numbers. Stroman has struggled but that's also an expectations things - his numbers are still solid, especially considering how deep he has gone in every game. Dickey's era is ugly but his underlying numbers and knuckler look pretty good so far.

Relievers Performing (5): Biagini 0era-, Morales 0, Chavez 55, Osuna 65, Floyd 76
Relievers Struggling (4): Cecil 90era-, Venditte 179, Storen 189, Leon 205

The bullpen is looking pretty good. Cecil hasn't been great but not terrible either, and seems to be bouncing back. Storen's the one guy who sticks out really badly, but he's maintining ok underlying numbers too, and seems to be improving as well. Leon pitched his way out of a job right quick and Venditte is only hanging onto a spot thanks to injuries to loup and morales. It might be time to give a look to Girodo soon.



uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#321502) #
Like a carrera, etherized on the table?
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#321503) #
You guys are all doing "Prufrock."

I noticed. I paid a lot of money for that education, back in the day.
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#321509) #
"....he has the advantage of not being Carrera...."

Michael Bourn last season:  68 wRC+

Ezequiel Carrera last season:  90 wRC+
Lylemcr - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#321511) #
Yay. Michael Bourn. Just what we needed, another underachieving player....
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#321512) #
Roster news. Chad Girodo is with the team, a second LHP in the pen. And Colabello is not listed on the lineup card. (Tulowitzki and Saunders are getting the night off, btw.)
92-93 - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#321513) #
Citing last season's wRC+ for a 4th OF seems fairly irrelevant to me. If Bourn is a better defender and base runner than Carrera, which wouldn't take much, it's a good addition.

If one of the OF gets injured we're probably looking at Pompey coming up to play anyway, not the 4th OF.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#321515) #
Well, there you go. Colabello suspended for 80 games. PEDs.
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#321516) #
Sometimes you just gotta cheat.
Four Seamer - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#321517) #
This is going to be an interesting story, wherever it leads.
John Northey - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#321518) #
Sad to hear that about Collabello. He was a good story until that.
jester00 - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#321519) #
Well, Smoak 'em if ya got 'em I guess.
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#321521) #
Sad to hear? I can't stop laughing.

Good guy Collabello.

All the kids looked up to him too lol.
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#321522) #
I might try to sneak into the Jays Clubhouse.

See if I can give Dickey some steroids.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#321523) #
He tested positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, which is real old school. It's what the East Germans used from the 1960s until the Wall fell. I would think they've learned how to test for that by now.
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#321524) #
"....If Bourn is a better defender and base runner than Carrera, which wouldn't take much, it's a good addition...."

That's exactly the point that I made on the other thread.  He's probably a better defender and a base runner than Carrera.  Even last year, with his speed diminished by recurrent hamstring injuries etc, he still managed to steal 17 bases.   If the 4th outfielder is purely a pinch-runner and a late-inning defensive replacement, Bourn could be useful.

But as long as hitting is part of baseball, it's worth us considering those numbers too.  The 4th outfielder does often get time in the lineup.  By including the hitting numbers, I was tackling the suggestion that Bourn would automatically be a superior player to Carrera.  He wouldn't necessarily be a better hitter, and I don't think he could be limited solely to pinch-running and late-inning defence if he's on the 25-man roster.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#321525) #
Colabello says he learned about the positive test on March 13, which may explain why he's been hitting like a guy with something else on his mind. Says he has no idea why he tested positive.

Meanwhile, Jesus Montero is hitting .316/.344/.456 in Buffalo.
Chuck - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#321526) #
It's what the East Germans used from the 1960s until the Wall fell.

I would have thought that the hair on his palms would have been a dead giveaway.

Dave Till - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#321527) #
Sorry to hear about Colabello - he seemed like an interesting guy. Not everyone learns how to speak fluent Spanish.

I have to wonder, though: was he using PEDs this year? If so, they don't seem to be helping him.
Gerry - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#321528) #
Smoak and EE can share first base. You could call up any position player and rotate through the DH position. It doesn't have to be a first baseman called up.
Dave Till - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#321529) #
Never mind - Magpie answered my question.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#321530) #
The 4th outfielder does often get time in the lineup.

No kidding. And this team's left fielder had major knee surgery last year, the right fielder is 35 years old, and the centre fielder will run into a wall on occasion. If someone hits the DL, you might want to do something else, but your fourth outfielder will play anyway. Saunders is sitting tonight because he's a little banged up (same for Tulowitzki).
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#321531) #
"....Sad to hear? I can't stop laughing...."

You are gleeful over the bad news that others receive?  Sadistic or what?  These guys are still human, even if to you they are just a source of entertainment and amusement.

I suppose a lot of people will now assume that Colabello was on PEDs last year.  Maybe he was, or maybe he wasn't, I don't know, but my understanding is that the PED testing system has become a lot more stringent in recent years.  Presumably he was tested a number of times last year. 

There will also be the argument that he was probably on PEDs last year but simply didn't get caught.  Again, that may or may not be true, but if he didn't get caught, how many other players didn't get caught?  There's not really any logical reason to guess the identity of those who "didn't get caught."  I hope we don't end up in the same area as all those stupid whisper campaigns about Bautista -- "how could a journeyman fringe player suddenly become the top HR hitter in the majors? It must be PEDs."   Until we have evidence, it's a leap too far.  I'm sure PEDs are widespread, and maybe they are more common among fringe players who have unexpected improvements, but I don't think we should just make guesses or assumptions about anyone, unless there is further evidence.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#321532) #
He's proclaiming his innocence, which is exactly what you'd expect, of course. This is not a substance that gets into your energy drink, or your flu medication. In fact, it's so hardcore, so blatant - this is the East German wrestling team! - that it's quite impossible to believe anyone would actually select this as their PED of choice.

That's the best argument I can muster for him. By the way, this means he can't participate in the 2016 post-season, should the team get there.
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#321533) #
"....Says he has no idea why he tested positive....."

Even as a Cola defender, I'm highly skeptical of that statement.  
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#321534) #
"....Jesus Montero is hitting .316/.344/.456 in Buffalo...."

And the Jays acquired him after Colabello tested positive.  (I presume that the Jays knew about the test result on the same day that Colabello knew.)
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#321535) #
well, here's smoak's big chance. there have been signs of a possible breakout for him, but that might just be gibby protecting him from bad matchups.

opens up all kinds of roster possibilities. not sure which way i'd go.
Four Seamer - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#321537) #
It is an amazing coincidence that everyone who has ever failed a drug test either has no idea how the drug got in their system, or had no idea that the supplement they were using contained a banned substance. 
perlhack - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#321538) #
I just heard on the radio that Hutchinson has been called up and will start on Sunday.
perlhack - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#321539) #
Sigh...Hutchison. I meant Hutchison.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#321540) #
a hot start really would have served Burns well. he'd be the rigbt callup if he was hitting at all.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#321541) #
sunday was Stroman's start.

uh oh.
Gerry - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#321542) #
No uh oh. Gibby was talking yesterday about calling up a sixth starter for a game to give the starters a rest. They did this last season. As far as I know Hutch will replace Girodo (or Venditte) on Sunday and then a position player will be called up for Monday.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#321543) #
No one else has the Hutchison story yet, but even if true, I wouldn't panic. They've already talked out loud about going with six starters at times. Mainly to keep the innings down for Sanchez and Stroman.
Four Seamer - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#321544) #
Are they bumping everybody back, or just skipping Stroman's start?
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#321545) #
Hutchison's start has been widely confirmed.  They are probably bumping everyone back.  As mentioned above, Gibbons has been talking about the need for an occasional 6th starter to give a breather to the younger pitchers.  He will come up and take Girodo's spot for a game, and then the Jays will probably option him back to Buffalo and a hitter will be promoted.
SK in NJ - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#321546) #
Good news for Smoak. Clears the way for everyday AB's for him.

As far as Cola, bad news for him, especially given how great of a story he was, but from a team standpoint taking AB's away from him is probably a positive. He was a major regression candidate to start the season and he's proving that to be correct so far.

Give Smoak a shot, and if that fails, try Montero. I'm OK with either of those scenarios given who is currently on the roster.
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#321547) #
Meanwhile, the Girodo story is a nice one.  He's a homegrown prospect, drafted in the 9th round in 2013, a sidearm pitcher who was drafted as a reliever and has always been a reliever in the minors.  He has moved up fast through the minors.  He was still at Dunedin at the beginning of last season, then rose through three levels to finish up with 4 games for Buffalo, followed by 7 games in the Arizona league.  This year, in 6.2 innings for Buffalo, he has 7 strikeouts, while allowing 6 hits, 2 walks, and only one run.

Though he has pitched against both RHB and LHB this season, his performance has been noticeably better against LHB, so he is likely to be used in the LOOGY role in Toronto, or a modified version of that.  Last season, across three levels and the Arizona league, he held LHB to a pretty incredible line of .096/.143/.123. 

Girodo's career path has been fairly similar to that of Aaron Loup so far, and his heavy use against RHB this season suggests that the Jays want him to be more than a LOOGY.  We'll see if he can do that.

China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#321548) #
The Jays only found out about Colabello's test results today, according to Atkins.  So forget my speculative theory about Jesus Montero's acquisition.  The Jays acquired Montero without knowing about Cola's positive test.

It will be interesting to see which hitter gets promoted from Buffalo next week. Montero could be a candidate to be promoted, but it doesn't have to be a 1B.  It could be anyone, since Encarnacion is already the back-up 1B on the days when Smoak isn't playing there.  So the Jays could promote Brown or Burns or Montero or Lake, for example, and have them as a back-up for multiple positions, including DH. 

On the other hand, if the Jays believe that 1B is a major distraction (and injury risk) for Edwin, they could promote Montero or Kotchman, with the idea that they could occasionally spell off Smoak.  Of course Burns too can play 1B, so he's in the mix.

And if Smoak doesn't start getting more than walks, the Jays could be looking for a regular 1B, maybe on the trade market.

The other alternative next week is not to promote a hitter but instead to have an 8-man bullpen, for a week or two perhaps, if the current relievers seem over-used.

scottt - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#321549) #
With Cola out they mostly need a good hitter on the bench.

Unlike Carrera, Bourn can take a walk and is exactly the type of guy you usually put at the top of you lineup.  350 OBP, speed, not power. The OBP is very BABIP dependent.

Last year Bourn was walking 9.5% of the time and striking out 22%.
Carrera was walking at 5.7% last year and doesn't have a walk this year.
Carrera strikes out at about the same rate.

Carrera had a better BABIP last year. That's pretty much it.
Bourn is a better defender but I don't think there is a difference in base running skills.
Carrera is supposed to be a genuine threat to steal. I think Gibby just gives him a red light.
China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#321550) #
Jesus Montero is playing 1B tonight, for the fifth time this season.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#321551) #
just a note that montero's .800ops / 133wrc+ in buffalo is not all that promising for an mlb 1b.

though of course he has been a solidly above avg hitter vLHP in his mlb career at least, so the platoon possibility is there. not that smoal is really that kind of platoon guy.
greenfrog - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#321552) #
Between last year and this year, I haven't been that impressed with Barney's defense at second base. That leadoff single in the second was catchable (Barney was playing up the middle and Davis's hard grounder was only a couple of strides to Barney's right).
Chuck - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#321553) #
Thank you, Ron Washington, for doing a really terrible job.
mathesond - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#321554) #
Sigh. On the bright side, it's looking more unlikely that they'll lose on a passed ball.
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#321555) #
China fan, the guys a cheater. I'm Happy he got caught. Would u rather cheaters get away with it. I Don't feel sorry for him at all.

Now if he was the victim of an armed robbery and I found it funny then ya that would be kind of sadistic.

China fan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#321556) #
".... Don't feel sorry for him at all....."

I don't think anyone is asking you to feel sorry for him.  I only wrote my comment because your reaction seemed quite gleeful, and I just hoped that you weren't laughing at another man's pain.  Even a self-inflicted tragedy (if that's what it is) is still a tragedy for the man who did it.  Life is too complex for snap judgments.

If you're simply happy that justice is being done, I'm with you.  On the other hand, when so many "cheaters" are never caught, and when the entire system seems influenced by so many other factors, from accident to hypocrisy to politics and celebrity status, I prefer to keep an open mind.  Nobody seemed to care very much about moral questions when Melky Cabrera was signed by the Jays, because we thought he would help the team.  Roger Clemens might not be in the Hall of Fame, but he's otherwise doing very well and is still seen as a hero by many fans, so our responses as fans aren't quite as clear-cut or consistent as we might think. 
Spifficus - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#321557) #
A little closer to the now-times, Stroman was suspended for PEDs in the minors, but no one yells "cheater" and smothers their pancakes with Schadenfreude syrup in the morning after a bad start. It is what it is: he tested positive, and no matter what the circumstances (be it willfull or contaminated supplement not on the MLB happy-list) he's going to be away for 80 or more games.

I'll echo Uglyone's sentiment that too bad Burns wasn't earning a callup. It'd be a great opportunity to give guys a half day rest (using Encarnacion at 1B) for a few times. As it currently stands though, it looks like it's Smoak's job until he gives it up (or someone else pries it from his hands) and I suspect his opportunity would be at least a few weeks.
Kasi - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#321558) #
Looks like a certain pitcher still has platoon issues against LHB.
Spifficus - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#321559) #
Well, there were only two RHBs in the whole lineup, and they still had 2 H in 6 ABs. Considering only Vogt had more than one hit off him, I'm thinking this one's inconclusive.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#321560) #
Martin went into second almost as fast as I would have, and now he's out of the game.
Vulg - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#321561) #
The Thole-tax strikes once more.

But hey, backup C's add marginal value anyway so what's the big deal to a team with a stacked lineup, right?
SK in NJ - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#321562) #
Sanchez was getting lucky with balls in play his first three starts. His higher K rate was a huge positive but the balls in play were bound to catch up to him, especially since his SwStr% (while improving) still isn't where you'd like it to be. Only 1 walk though, so he's definitely taken a step forward in that regard, but it's a long season. Let's see how he adjusts.

The offense looks terrible. I said a few days ago that I'm generally optimistic that this team can turn it around, and nothing has changed my stance, but the strike outs keep piling up and the more playing time for Carrera/Thole is not a positive. I'd even add Goins to that list who doesn't resemble the 2nd half of 2015 version. Getting Travis back will help, and any help they can add to the bench would be a boost (even if it's a marginal improvement like Bourn over Carrera and/or Jimenez over Thole).

This is pretty much the exact same team as last season, with Happ replacing Buehrle, so I expect things to get better when something finally clicks. Gibby's teams usually have one prolonged winning streak in them (usually 11 games if history wants to repeat itself) so just have to hold their heads above water until then.
Eephus - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#321563) #
Oh sweet everything it'd be nice to somehow pinch hit for Thole here. Donaldson was a catcher before, right? Right???
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#321564) #
China fan, what kind of person would laugh at another man's pain.

I'm also pretty happy for whoever takes his spot.
uglyone - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#321565) #
never want to see osuna intentionally walk coco fricken crisp for any reason whatsoever.
King Ryan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#321566) #
Having the closer intentionally walk Coco Crisp is one of the dumbest things I've seen this season so far. God did that have me yelling at the TV. Big surprise that he came around to score. Now watch the game end 8-7.
John Northey - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#321567) #
I don't get why Osuna was brought in tonight when he was. Yeah, keeping it within one would've been nice but if it is tight tomorrow Osuna may not be available now.

The big issue though is the bizarre fact Thole is still the only backup catcher option. If Martin is indeed hurt that'll hurt a lot.
Eephus - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#321568) #
Carrera's out because "tie goes to the runner" doesn't apply to video review.

That's about as close as it gets.

King Ryan - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#321569) #
Have the Jays had a replay go their way this season? I don't think I've seen it. I've seen I think 7 go against them.
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#321570) #
According to someone on twitter, they've won 1 review, and lost 7.

The opposition has won 3 and lost 1.

Chuck - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#321571) #
Unrelated to this game...

The combined stats of Betances/Miller after tonight's game: 15 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 35 SO.

They have struck out 35 of the 55 batters (64%) they have faced. I believe only one pitcher has ever struck out 50% of the batters he faced in a season, and that was Kimbrel 4 years ago (116 K, 231 BF).

The frustration-based complaining about the homeside may now continue...

cybercavalier - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#321572) #
2 things:

The big issue though is the bizarre fact Thole is still the only backup catcher option. If Martin is indeed hurt that'll hurt a lot.

If former Jays catchers are considered an option to backing up Thole instead of calling up Tony Sanchez or Jimenez, is either Kottaras of Giants AAA, Quiroz of the Indians AAA and the recently released Robinzon Diaz good enough to backup Thole ?

Michael Bourn

Is there any late 20s early 30s OF diamond in the rough ? After looking at the boxscore of Buffalo and Rochester game, former Jays Darin Mastroianni is still an OF with Twins AAA.

My point was not necessarily bringing in former Jays but why must sign a CF whose skills set is widely known ?
Super Bluto - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#321573) #
China - if Atkins and the rest of the FO only found out about Colabello's test today and Colabello knew about it mid March - boy that's gotta be a cause of friction between those two camps. To get caught and not tell your team that you might be about to put them in a difficult position is really not good.

Having said that, I don't blame him at all. I don't blame any fringe player for taking anything. The risk is relatively low (suspension? loss of salary?) while the potential reward (a major league contract) is very high. In his 6 months in the majors he probably made more than he would have in 6 years in the minors.
pubster - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#321574) #
I think the health risks are bigger than the salary.
Magpie - Friday, April 22 2016 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#321575) #
In his 6 months in the majors he probably made more than he would have in 6 years in the minors.

No "probably" about it. He definitely did.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#321576) #
Pretty sad for Colabello. Not sad that he got caught, that's a good thing. Sad that he did the same tired 'cheat and lie' routine. Had he admitted it he might have got a second chance in major league baseball.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#321577) #
"....Had he admitted it he might have got a second chance in major league baseball..."

The Jays have already said that he'll get a second chance.

Others have done worse and still got a second chance.  Melky Cabrera's associates purchased an entire website and falsified its contents as part of an elaborate system of covering his tracks, and Cabrera still got a second chance -- with the Jays.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#321578) #
"....In his 6 months in the majors he probably made more than he would have in 6 years in the minors...."

To be fair, Colabello would have passed numerous tests without any incident last year in Toronto and in the previous seasons in Minnesota, so there's no evidence that he took PEDs before this year. 

I'm also skeptical that he would have taken PEDs for financial reasons.  He could have made more money by abandoning baseball a decade ago.  Instead he toiled in the independent league for many years, for less money than most of us make, in a league that virtually never leads to the majors.  That demonstrates the opposite:  that he wasn't motivated by money.  He might have been motivated by ego, or desperation, or something else, but his life history doesn't suggest that he was motivated by the idea that he could recover all of his losses with a few months in the majors.
pubster - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#321579) #
Maybe he was motivated by his boyhood dreams to play in the MLB.
King Ryan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#321580) #
False positives do happen.

I mean, I don't know. The mlb drug testing system is stupid in my opinion.
Glevin - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 06:26 AM EDT (#321581) #
"To be fair, Colabello would have passed numerous tests without any incident last year in Toronto and in the previous seasons in Minnesota, so there's no evidence that he took PEDs before this year. "

You really think that he started taking PEDs after winning a full time job and showing he could hit in the majors? What is much more likely is that he took them before but didn't get caught.

"I'm also skeptical that he would have taken PEDs for financial reasons."

Of course he did. He didn't take them to make less money. I liked Collabello but he clearly took something he wasn't allowed to and did it for personal gain. This isn't a Silken Laumann case with mistakenly taking cough medicine that was allowed up until the year before. This is taking a serious drug that has been banned for a long time and only has one use.
Paul D - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#321582) #
False positives do happen, and based on the rate stats, it's almost certain that at least one player suspended for steroids qas suspended based on a false positive. Now, it's unlikely that any one person is a false positive, and that's probably the angle I would go with if caught, but it's probably true of someone.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#321583) #
Cheaters dodge drug tests all the time. Just look at Lance Armstrong.
Athletes wouldn't be taking drugs if they knew they'd get caught.

There is no possibility of false positive. There wouldn't be sanctions otherwise.
I'm sure the samples are divided and retested several times.

The rules of engagements are to deny everything.
Unless they're writing a book about it. The exception is HGH wen re-habbing an injury.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Cola. He can't play any position.
He needs to put enough of them over the fence to be a viable DH or his career is over.

I would assume he would need to rake a AAA to be allowed to come back.
I don't see how you can play a steroid user who is hitting  .069.

jerjapan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#321584) #
Of course, the organization may chose to believe Cola, and perhaps give him a big league chance right away.   

Absent from this discussion seems to be the concept that he may have taken a banned substance accidently - this isn't to let him off the hook, but an intention to cheat is objectively different from an absence of sufficient care not to cheat by accident. 

That was Stroman's defense - honest mistake.  lots of these guys take tons of supplements.



Paul D - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#321585) #
Scott, there are absolutely possibilities, he'll, certainties of flame positives. We'd like to believe that this system is foolproof , but that's just not how it works.
John Northey - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#321586) #
I expect he'll be sent to AAA to rehab then fully sent down until September and released quietly in the winter unless he tears the cover off the ball.
Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#321587) #
Of course, the organization may chose to believe Cola, and perhaps give him a big league chance right away.

And they may choose to not believe him, at least privately, and then give him a shot to return anyway.

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#321588) #
Mention of the early testerone Olympic cheats brought to mind this interview by Barbara Frum, which many of us older folks remember very well.
christaylor - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#321589) #
I like this autocorrect error. The next time I teach stats it'll be "flame positives" and "ice negatives".
Vulg - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#321590) #
Wow, Gibby actually slotted Carrera into the leadoff slot. He of the .176 (.306 lifetime though!) OBP.

My lord.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#321591) #
would have thought barney earned himself another start.
Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#321592) #
Wow, Gibby actually slotted Carrera into the leadoff slot.

This was a situation many of us feared. Given Saunders' injury history, especially his most recent, the team's 4th outfielder was likely to assume more than standard issue 4th outfielder duty. It would have been nice to have a player in this role somewhere between replacement level and starting caliber.

Too many ABs are being doled out to the decidely replacement level Carrera.

scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#321593) #
What's funny is that Bourn would be fine leading off.
Vulg - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#321594) #
This was a situation many of us feared.

Indeed. Sadly, too many of my 'fears' have come to fruition. Too many ABs (and innings) are being doled out to a subpar backup C, a weak bench is hurting the team and this may actually be the season time catches up with Dickey.

Granted, Sanchez has helped address (for the most part) what was my biggest concern with respect to the rotation, but it's frustrating that the risks associated with some things could have been mitigated with even a modest bump to payroll.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#321595) #
"....He can't play any position...."

Cola is a perfectly adequate 1B and has made a number of excellent defensive plays there, including this season and in the playoffs last year.  It's fine to attack Cola after his test results, but there's no need to exaggerate.
jerjapan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#321596) #
"And they may choose to not believe him, at least privately, and then give him a shot to return anyway."

Good point Chuck.  I have no idea what most FO's views are on ethics, PED's and what is or is not evidence that a guy is not a 'character player'.  I do know that I'm pulling for Cola.

Put me in the camp that would like to see a platoon at 2b with Goins and Barney, and in the camp that wants Carrera to get the hell out of dodge.  Totally disagree with Gibby's preference for Zeke over Cecilliani - no chance he'd get claimed IMO, but I can at least get the logic - familiarity, clubhouse guy, part of a winner, whatever.  But the logic of Carrera batting first seems to be that the rest of the batters in the lineup will be screwed up somehow if they all move up a spot.  Nonsense.   
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#321597) #
He's proclaiming his innocence, which is exactly what you'd expect, of course. This is not a substance that gets into your energy drink, or your flu medication. In fact, it's so hardcore, so blatant - this is the East German wrestling team! - that it's quite impossible to believe anyone would actually select this as their PED of choice.

Last year was the comeback year for stanazolol, also known as Winstrol - Ben Johnson's PED of choice for the 1986 Olympics. A number of players, including Ervin Santana got caught with stanazolol in their system.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#321598) #
"....would have thought Barney earned himself another start...."

Me too.  Your praise of Barney before yesterday's game was prescient.  I still think the sample size is too small, and he's unlikely to continue with such a dramatic improvement at this stage of his career, but his early hitting numbers as a Blue Jay in 2015 and 2016 are certainly intriguing.

China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#321599) #
"....You really think that he started taking PEDs after winning a full time job and showing he could hit in the majors?...."

Anything is possible.  He could have had an off-season health issue and was trying to accelerate the recovery process.  He could have felt greater pressure to retain his job this season, after unexpectedly winning the job last year.  We could all speculate about many potential scenarios that might motivate him.  The only actual evidence is the test of March 13, 2016, and the knowledge that he passed the tests last year.  (And even those two facts can be disputed.)  The rest is guesswork. 
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#321600) #
".... if Atkins and the rest of the FO only found out about Colabello's test today and Colabello knew about it mid March - boy that's gotta be a cause of friction between those two camps....."

Atkins stated publicly that he only learned about the test results yesterday.  It does seem odd, but I don't know the normal processes in these situations.  Perhaps MLB has an agreement with the player's union, under which the player is informed of preliminary results in confidence and then has the right to appeal in confidence.  And perhaps that often happens.  If so, the union might argue that the players shouldn't be obliged to jeopardize their salaries and roster spots by divulging a preliminary result which could later be overturned on appeal. 

China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#321601) #
John Lott's response to Colabello's test results is, typically, a thoughtful and nuanced essay.  Worth reading.  Here's the link:

https://www.facebook.com/lottonbaseball/posts/1773915536177931:0

uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#321602) #
i actually don't mind Carrera stop gapping leadoff as it shows that that is now Saunders' spot. and it's not like pillar or goins would be any better.

but it is funny to note how much headache gibby would have already saved himself this year by just bumping all the big bats up a spot.

since he was willing to do just that last year at some points, though, i have to feel this may be as much donaldson/joey/ee's call as gibby's.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#321603) #
I've been trying to work myself up to having a strong opinion on the cola situation but i just can't. I'm not upset at him morally even if he did it, and i never really expected him to be a critical part of the team this year. Weirdly, my first reaction to the news was "nice now we won't be forcing him into the lineup if he doesn't earn it".
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#321604) #
"Your praise of Barney before yesterday's game was prescient. I still think the sample size is too small, and he's unlikely to continue with such a dramatic improvement at this stage of his career, but his early hitting numbers as a Blue Jay in 2015 and 2016 are certainly intriguing."

well, saying that Barney is as deserving of playing time as Goins isn't exactly "praise" from my point of view, but thanks.

I don't expect any dramatic improvement or any improvement at all actually. I just think he's just as likely to help us as goins is, and just as likely to have hot streaks to take advantage of.

well, that's a bit of a lie actually - honestly i do think he has slightly better odds of helping us than goins. not a huge difference but i'd lay my money on barney if i was forced to.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#321605) #
"Indeed. Sadly, too many of my 'fears' have come to fruition. Too many ABs (and innings) are being doled out to a subpar backup C, a weak bench is hurting the team and this may actually be the season time catches up with Dickey."

smoak and barney are technically part of that bench, and have been great.

of course, what irks there is that both have better mlb pedigree than the starters playing ahead of them, so their positive contributions still somehow feel like a negative overall.
Eephus - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#321606) #
Nice play by Brooks Donaldson over there.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#321607) #
Our home scorers bend over backwards to try and look objective. Every borderline error call they seem to score against us, both against the hitters and pitchers.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#321608) #
nice inning, but still having trouble getting that one big hit.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#321609) #
hey now there's a big hit.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#321610) #
There's so many banned PEDS. They can't possibly test for all of them.

Every time someone get caught, they release what it is he was using.

Can't one just look at a banned substance that no one has tested positive for in the last 20 years--or ever--and go with that?
CeeBee - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#321611) #
Big hit in every way. Time to turn on the May power a few days early.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#321612) #
Not to pick on anyone but our bench is suddenly looking pretty good now...

Smoak 157wrc+
Barney 155wrc+
Carrera 72wrc+
Thole 51wrc+

That backup catcher, though, still stinks.
Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#321613) #
...gibby would have already saved himself this year by just bumping all the big bats up a spot... since he was willing to do just that last year at some points, though

That was early last year, when Donaldson was a new Blue Jay and not yet a league MVP. The calculus is all very different now.

China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#321614) #
Smoak is surely not classified as a "bench" player anymore, as of yesterday, yes?
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#321615) #
yeah chuck, that's the reality.


and hey, sometimes I don't want the jays to push the other starter out of a game early. these meatballs are good hittin'.

Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#321616) #
Time to turn on the May power a few days early.

April bringer-of-rain showers bring May team power.

Or something.

uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#321617) #
China, well, he was never really classified as the bench player but that's how it seemed to be laid out to start the year. And that doesn't really change due to a suspension or injury.

Of course, whether smoak deserved to be the bench guy is another question.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#321618) #
My main man Happ lookin' good.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#321619) #
dehydrochlormethyltestosterone drastically enhances muscular strength. Athletes using that are documented (by the East Germans) to dramatically exceed their top performance in a matter of weeks. For example a woman who couldn't reach 18m without the drugs set a world record of 20.10m with the drug.

Biological half-life is 16 hours. There are 71 stereoids and their variants banned in baseball. Plus 8 drugs of abuse and 55 stimulants.

I'm sure a doper can avoid detection for a long time if he's not tested for everything at least once a week.

Given that's this is a substance that has large, obvious side effects on women, the chances of ingesting this by accident are basically zero.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#321620) #
Carrera is now hitting 300. He just need to learn to track a ball in the air and we're good to go.
CeeBee - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#321621) #
Carrera eat hit wheaties this morning?
eudaimon - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#321622) #
Maybe we've been hating on Carrera a little too hard.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#321623) #
Carrera was 4/6 off this pitcher before today.

maybe those stats sometimes mean something.
CeeBee - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#321624) #
Tulo's getting his timing back :)
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#321625) #
tulo's line over his last 10gms is lookin pretty tight.
CeeBee - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#321626) #
Semien was 7/10 against Happ. 0 for 3 today. I agree with sometimes though.
eudaimon - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#321627) #
Maybe Tulo has figured it out...
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#321628) #
tulo up to a 94wrc+, despite a paltry .190babip.
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#321629) #
Floyd as a late inning reliever seems to be working.
Kasi - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#321630) #
I wish they'd use him in a bit higher leverage situations. He might be second best right now behind Osuna.

Also nice to see Happ working out so well.
Spifficus - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#321631) #
I think they're being cautious with Floyds usage (using him if he warms up, giving him opportunities for multiple innings, not having him go back to back games) because of his injury and starter history. That's why I like him in a variant of the Mark Lowe role - latter part of the ballgame when tied or down by a run or two to try to hold the game close and give the offense a chance to come back.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#321632) #
That was the team we've been waiting to see all year.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#321633) #
I wish they'd use him in a bit higher leverage situations. He might be second best right now behind Osuna.

I agree. I think he's shown he's pretty good. Very good signing.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#321634) #
It's gonna come down to what Storen does I think. Both Floyd and Chavez have been excellent, but unless they give up on Storen as the setup guy there's not going to be a ton of high leverage work available. Not that I mind.

For the record I think Storen will be fine.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#321635) #
Storen still wants to be a closer.  Chavez wants to start. So does Floyd.
Kasi - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#321636) #
I agree they should keep him doing multiple innings. I think he'd be well suited to do what Osuna sometimes does. Come in to take care of base runners, than pitch the next inning.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#321637) #
".....My main man Happ lookin' good....."

Although I do recall someone calling him an "expensive mediocrity" before the season began....
Kasi - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#321638) #
No that would be David Price. (Or Zach Greinke)
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#321639) #
"....Wow, Gibby actually slotted Carrera into the leadoff slot. He of the .176 OBP.  My lord....."


Seems that Gibby made the right decision.  Carrera now has a season average of .318 and an OPS of .727, both of which are certainly good enough for an occasional lead-off hitter who has speed and can steal bases.

Of course the sample size is still very tiny.  But the sample size was even tinier before the game, when people were ridiculing Carrera.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#321640) #
"....No that would be David Price. (Or Zach Greinke)...."

I'm sure David Price will get a lot better as the season goes on.  But I think we do have enough indications from J.A. Happ by this point to conclude that he was a good acquisition at a reasonable cost, even when his current 2.42 ERA inevitably rises.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#321641) #
Nice win.

I have two unrelated thoughts about Colabello's suspension.  I share John Lott's agnosticism about whether Colabello took PEDs, in the sense of voluntarily taking something that one knows or believes will enhance performance and is in contravention of the rules.  Reading Pillar's comments in the Globe and Mail this morning, my sense is that there is no denial of the test results.  Pillar described it as a "technicality".  What could that mean?  One possibility is that Colabello's test findings are consistent with a level of the drug in his urine that is ineffective to enhance performance but recognized by the testing.  I suppose it is possible that a supplement contains a trace amount (unadvertised) of a steroid, not enough to be caught by the FDA but enough to be caught by MLB.  I don't know this to be the case, but it's the only meaning of technicality that I can think of that would make some sense.

Colabello's suspension creates an opening for Pompey.  The club does need a leadoff hitter, and the time has never been better to move Bautista to first base for a prolonged period.  I don't think that the club is thinking that way.

Kasi - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#321642) #
The question with Price was never really this season. Like you I assume he'll get to 4 WAR, although I'm hoping he crashes and burns. But in a year or two I expect Boston won't be so happy with it.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#321643) #
now you guys gonna force me to attack Happ and support Price?

come on now.

Price: 83fip-, 72xfip-
Happ: 102fip-, 120xfip-
Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#321644) #
Carrera now has a season average of .318 and an OPS of .727, both of which are certainly good enough for an occasional lead-off hitter who has speed and can steal bases.

Sure, if you believe that he truly is a 318/318/409 hitter (does anyone?). He's an 0-for-4 away from his numbers being back in the crapper. I think today's performance may have bought him a couple of more weeks before we see Bourn.

Chuck - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#321645) #
and the time has never been better to move Bautista to first base for a prolonged period. I don't think that the club is thinking that way.

I don't see Bautista conceding to a position change in a walk year.

Kasi - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#321646) #
But one costs 12 million for a measly three years, while the other costs a wee bit more in cost and in length.
jerjapan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#321647) #
I don't see Bautista conceding to a position change in a walk year.

A few people have expressed this idea, and it certainly makes intuitive sense on the surface- does anyone have any actual data or examples to back the idea up?  I.e. players switching / refusing to switch positions in their walk years?

The more I think about it, the more I feel that this idea is assuming a lack of intelligence in too many front offices - anyone thinking of signing Bautista (and his north of $100 million dollar commitment) is watching him play RF. 

And if there is one Jay who I assume has his finger on the pulse of the behind-the-scenes game, I feel it's Bautista.  He certainly knows he isn't playing well in right thus far. 
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#321648) #
I share John Lott's agnosticism about whether Colabello took PEDs, in the sense of voluntarily taking something that one knows or believes will enhance performance and is in contravention of the rules. Reading Pillar's comments in the Globe and Mail this morning, my sense is that there is no denial of the test results. Pillar described it as a "technicality". What could that mean? One possibility is that Colabello's test findings are consistent with a level of the drug in his urine that is ineffective to enhance performance but recognized by the testing. I suppose it is possible that a supplement contains a trace amount (unadvertised) of a steroid, not enough to be caught by the FDA but enough to be caught by MLB. I don't know this to be the case, but it's the only meaning of technicality that I can think of that would make some sense.

Boy Mike, that's quite a bit to read into Kevin Pillar, who to my knowledge has no scientific knowledge at all, using the word "technicality". The same "this is different" hubris was heard from Boston fans when David Ortiz was reported to have tested positive. The mere appearance of MLBPA officials at his press conference was inferred to mean that this was a 'unique' case.

MLB's testing is done by WADA. In order to fail the first screen, on the first sample, a player must have more than 4 times the common ratio of testosterone in the first sample. But that is only a gateway test that leads to a second sample being tested with an expensive and sophisticated isotope test. The isotope test detects and measures the amount of exogenous testosterone. Once it is over a clear threshold, a test is considered positive.

I have no idea what Kevin Pillar, Colabello's close friend, was told, likely by Colabello himself. Maybe he thinks it's a 'technicality' that a test distinguishes manufactured testosterone from the natural variety. I have no idea what Colabello's friend thinks is a "technicality" and neither do those who want to claim that Colabello is somehow innocent just because he follows the trodden path of lying about it afterward. He failed the test used by the most sophisticated tester in the world, negotiated by a very sophisticated bargaining agent, and lost his appeal.

Here is what seems to me to be by far the most likely scenario. Colabello is the third player to recently be caught using the same substance, turinabol. Another was caught last week, and another in September. He is a career Independent Leaguer who, out of the blue, puts up a star major league season. Following being caught in March, he immediately plays like an Independent Leaguer on a major league team.

It seems to me very likely that Colabello and the other two were using the same supplier. I imagine that MLB investigators trying to find the supplier, asked Colabello about the supplier, who it appears just did the typical double down of cheat and lie. I suspect baseball is through with Colabello and we won't be hearing his name much more. As for the claim above that he is not finished because the Blue Jays said they will give him a chance to return, that's what teams have to say. It's officially a three-strike rule, and teams can't officially say they are done with him now, however unlikely it is that he will ever wear a major league jersey again.

While It may be sad that someone is facing misfortune, his own cheating was his method of gaining a major league roster spot over someone more deserving. Players, his close friend Pillar excepted, by and large hate these guys. The days when the MLBPA stood with the cheaters over the non-cheaters are now long gone. So I suspect is Colabello.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#321649) #
The club does need a leadoff hitter, and the time has never been better to move Bautista to first base for a prolonged period. I don't think that the club is thinking that way.

I think you're right on both accounts. I think Bautista would scream to the heavens if he was moved, the club knows it, and they're not going anywhere near it.
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#321650) #
"....He's an 0-for-4 away from his numbers being back in the crapper...."

Sure, but he's also a 2-for-4 away from his numbers being even better than they are now.  It works both ways. 

But of course your overall point is right -- we can't draw any conclusions from his very limited numbers in 2016 so far.

My point was simply that Carrera's critics were attacking him on the basis of an even tinier sample of 2016 plate appearances.  A more reasonable prediction would be a repeat of his 2015 hitting performance.  His OBP last season was the same as Jose Reyes produced in the lead-off spot in the same season, which suggests that it's not totally ridiculous to have him occasionally in the lead-off spot.

By the way, Gibbons says Carrera will be back in the lineup tomorrow.

Does anyone have analysis on his defence today? I didn't see the game.  There were a couple of "web gem" catches, but I'm not sure if he was taking poor routes or was out of position or anything like that.
Vulg - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#321651) #
My point was simply that Carrera's critics were attacking him on the basis of an even tinier sample of 2016 plate appearances. A more reasonable prediction would be a repeat of his 2015 hitting performance.

I'd argue a more reasonable prediction would be his lifetime OBP of .306.

His OBP last season was the same as Jose Reyes produced in the lead-off spot in the same season, which suggests that it's not totally ridiculous to have him occasionally in the lead-off spot.

That's more a suggestion that Reyes had no business leading off last year.

I'm happy Carrera made me eat my words today, it helped the team win. If he's somehow taken a huge leap from the player he was with Cleveland, Philly, Detroit and the Jays last year then that's fantastic - it's happened to other players. I have my doubts though ...
China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#321652) #
"....Players, his close friend Pillar excepted, by and large hate these guys...."

So we have to ignore anything said by a player's friend?  I didn't know that this was grounds for disqualification of an opinion.  Are we only allowed to listen to people who actively dislike a player?

In any event, there's no evidence that the Jays now "hate" Colabello.  The exact opposite was described in reliable accounts of the clubhouse meeting at which he spoke. Russell Martin hugged him, Gibbons said he loves the guy, etc, etc.  

You speak of "likely scenarios" -- which are indeed quite possible -- but then you revert to absolutes in calling him a liar and a cheater, and you even imply that he was a liar and cheater in 2015 when he passed every drug test.  I much prefer John Lott's approach of retaining an open mind.  Life is far more complex than the absolute certainties that some people peddle.


China fan - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#321653) #
"....I'd argue a more reasonable prediction would be his lifetime OBP of .306...."

If we're using lifetime OBP as the measure, then we'd have to note that Michael Saunders has a lifetime OBP of .304.

But it makes more sense to give heavier weight to recent performance.  Saunders had a much higher OBP in his last full season (2014), when his OBP was .341.  That's why he was one of the two short-listed candidates for the lead-off spot this spring.  Similarly, I would rather give a bit heavier weight to Carrera's combined numbers in 2015 and 2016, rather than his numbers from earlier in his career.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#321654) #
In the ex-Jays dept., I wonder if Colby Rasmus is going to have one of those 5+ WAR years in 2016. After his grand slam today, he's hitting .288/.441/.673 with 6 HR. Pretty good value for Houston for 1/$15.8m.
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#321655) #
CF, do you actually believe people were down on Carrera strictly because of his 2016 numbers (prior to today)? He is a replacement level player. There is a large sample size to determine that. His defense is not very good, and again, there's a large sample size to determine that (career -12 DRS, -5.7 UZR, etc). One four hit game and a nice catch in the field is not going to change that.

I was saying in the off-season prior to and right after trading Revere that the 4th OF will end up playing a lot. Saunders is an injury risk, and Bautista is in his mid-30's, so investing $ in a capable 4th OF would have been a smart move. Turns out, they had an OF with a 4th OF skill set (Ceciliani) but decided to go with Carrera, likely due to GIbby's influence. Carrera playing a lot, never mind leading off, is not going to help the team. Mediocre players have good games every now and then, and this was just one of them.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#321656) #
As for another ex-Jay, Liam Hendriks, the good news is that he's pitched 8.1 innings with zero walks. The bad news: 17 H and 9 ER allowed (2.04 WHIP and 9.72 ERA). Time will tell whether the Chavez-Hendriks trade was a good one for the Jays, but I'm not currently mourning the loss of Hendriks.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#321657) #
Does anyone have a recent update on Travis's progress? If he's healthy and Pompey continues to refine his game and gain confidence, I think those two could really help ignite the team this summer.
scottt - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#321658) #
Offensively, Carrera can get lucky enough on balls in play to be valuable, but he's not walking enough to be valuable if the balls he hits are played. Just look at this year.

As long as Colabello is not accusing Smoak of spiking his drink, it doesn't matter what he says.

A technicality is what usually keeps a guilty party from conviction.
I'm reminded of Ryan Braun who dodged a positive test because his sample containing artificial testosterone sat on a fridge during a weekend.
In Colabello's case, I understand this to mean that an appeal based on a technicality was not successful.

cybercavalier - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#321661) #
Offensively, Carrera can get lucky enough on balls in play to be valuable, but he's not walking enough to be valuable if the balls he hits are played. Just look at this year.

Given that I in general agree with this assessment, JoeyBats' first taste of significant contribution to the batters lineup was leading off. In other words, is drawing walks a skill that can be learned ? Carrera got a 3-2 count before singled in his first AB... could that PA result in a walk if Carrera has next such chance ?
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#321662) #
the irony is that Carrera hits just fine for a speedy defensive 4th OF.

it's the "defensive" part that sucks.
Magpie - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#321663) #
Does anyone have a recent update on Travis's progress?

Thought I heard them say on the broadcast the other day that he's swinging a bat. Not at live pitching, maybe not even off a tee. But hey.. baby steps.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#321664) #
I much prefer John Lott's approach of retaining an open mind. Life is far more complex than the absolute certainties that some people peddle.

An open mind to what? Whether taking anabolic steroids is cheating? It clearly is. Whether he was caught having taking turbinal? He clearly was. Whether having been caught cheating he lied about it? He clearly did. He told the same old "i have no idea how this anabolic steroid got into my system!" foolishness that we've heard since Seoul, when Ben Johnson had no idea how that anabolic steroid got into his system. You can choose to swallow that nonsense if you choose, but that's not indicative of an "open mind". Much the opposite, it's indicative of someone who wants to close their mind to the obvious without any convincing evidence of a reasonably likely alternative explanation. It's the kind of 'feel-nice' schlock about 'nuance' (as if sneaking an injection of steroids or smearing on the clear and the cream is 'nuanced') that has nothing whatsoever to do with open-mindedness, or reason. But if you want to tell me what your alternate theory is, and the evidence that makes this alternative explanation probable, I'm eager to hear this explanation and your supporting evidence.
John Northey - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#321665) #
I always have fun looking at ex-Jays. At some point in the season I'll probably do an 'ex-Jay all-star' post but for now lets do a quick and dirty look. Stats from MLB.com so hopefully will be up to date.

SP: Syndergaard - 0.90 ERA in 3 starts, 20 IP 4 BB vs 29 K's - the 'oh crap' from AA, his biggest blunder
SP: Price - 2-0 7.06 ERA in 4 starts, 21 2/3 IP 6 BB vs 32 K's, that ERA is deceptive.
SP: Graveman - 2.04 ERA in 3 starts, 17 2/3 IP 6 BB vs 15 K's - glad to see him do well

Those are all the starters I found doing a quick and dirty look through. I'm sure I missed some. Those 3 are all good, even though Price has that horrid ERA.

RP: Hendriks: 9.72 ERA in 8 1/3 IP 0 BB 8 SO BABIP gods hate him this year
RP: Rzepczynski: 0 ERA in 6 1/3 IP 1 BB 4 SO, nice to see him back.
RP: Castro: 1.50 ERA in 6 IP 2 BB 8 SO no saves or W or L
RP: McGowan: 3.38 ERA in 5 1/3 IP 2 BB 2 SO for Miami

FYI: Brandon Morrow in in AA for San Diego, doing poorly; Casey Janssen is a free agent still, Kyle Drabek has 2 IP in the majors so far this year for Arizona in 1 relief game 4 BB vs 2 SO.

Getting tired so will leave hitters to others or later.
uglyone - Saturday, April 23 2016 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#321666) #
LATEST NEWS
RECENT NEWS
Devon Travis (shoulder) will take another round of on-field batting practice Wednesday.
His live BP session went well on Monday and the second baseman did some light fielding drills on Tuesday. Travis is just beginning to ease into heavier workouts after missing all of spring training following November shoulder surgery. He could be ready to join the Blue Jays' active roster by the end of May. Apr 19 - 8:08 PM
Lylemcr - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#321667) #
Jays Starters 9-5
Jays relievers 0-6 + 6 saves. (4 Blown saves)

I am happy with the starters...
Magpie - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#321668) #
Brandon Morrow in in AA for San Diego, doing poorly...

And Ricky Romero made a couple of four inning starts for AAA Sacramento, but is now on the 7-Day DL.
Paul D - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#321669) #
It's possible to think that Colabello probably did take steroids and still have sympathy for him.
Paul D - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#321670) #
Actually, someone at Primer pointed out that the rules say the following: Players who test positive for either their first or second tests are given the option to appeal, in which scientific tests will be conducted to prove validity of test. Within that period of time, they are restricted from participation in all baseball activity.

Any idea how Colabello was playing games during his appeal?

Cracka - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#321671) #
"It's possible to think that Colabello probably did take steroids and still have sympathy for him."

I'm cynical and I personally think that many players - both MLB and minors - are periodically or regularly using PEDs and are avoiding detection, either actively or passively (by using drugs that only leave a "positive result" trace for a short period of time...) and because of this, there's tremendous pressure for a roster-fringe guy like Colabello to take PEDs to "keep up to the competition" (for example, a guy like Jesus Montero who has his own PED-related suspension).

The stakes are ENORMOUS for fringe players -- sometimes the difference between poverty and prosperity (especially for players from poor countries, maybe not for Colabello who has a university degree). Pro-Am and lower minor league players make poverty-line wages (~$2k/month). Colabello's career earnings might look something like this:

2005-2011: ~$10k/year
2012: ~$10k-$20k (signed with Twins org.)
2013: $200k (played 1/3 season in MLB)
2014: $250k (played 1/2 season in MLB)
2015: $420k (played 5/6 season in MLB).
2016: $521k (projected - based on full season in MLB).

Do I have sympathy for Colabello? No. But if PEDs are the difference between making $10k and $500k, I certainly understand why he might make that decision, especially when he sees others around him doing it.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#321672) #
Dustin McGowan was DFAed by the Marlins on April 17.
Oceanbound - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#321673) #
Paul D: Those aren't the actual rules, they're just words posted on Wikipedia. It doesn't say that in the actual JDA: mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf
Paul D - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#321674) #
Thanks Oceanbound.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#321675) #
"....do you actually believe people were down on Carrera strictly because of his 2016 numbers (prior to today)?..."

If you look back at this thread, I was responding specifically to the guy who quoted the 2016 numbers.  I never said that 2016 was "strictly" the reason for the longstanding criticism -- it was the poster himself who thought that the 2016 numbers were the best way to attack Carrera yesterday.  When some people are using the 2016 numbers to attack him, what's wrong with me using the 2016 numbers to defend him?  People seem to expect to be free to attack players on the basis of a tiny sample size, without any pushback when they are wrong. 

"....He is a replacement level player...."


Look around the majors. The majority of 4th outfielders are mediocre replacement-level players, who are on the roster to be pinch-runners and back-up hitters. You're attacking the Jays for choosing Carrera as the 4th outfielder, but have you checked out the actual hitting numbers of his competitors for the job?  This is nothing to do with yesterday's game.  Look at his major-league numbers since the beginning of 2015, and compare them to the actual major-league numbers of Lake, Brown or Ceciliani.  Since the beginning of 2015, Carrera has this line:  .278/.321/.376.  Of course that's not enough to warrant a starting job in the majors, but it's enough to warrant a 4th outfielder job, especially when you can steal bases.   None of the other three contenders have produced to that level over the past 2 seasons in the majors.  So why are you so convinced that Gibby was wrong to choose Carrera?  Let me guess -- was it because of Ceciliani's impressive spring numbers in a tiny sample when he was playing against mostly minor-league pitchers?  Or perhaps the tiny sample of Buffalo numbers by Brown or Lake this month?  Why would that outweigh the actual evidence of major-league experience?

As for his defence, I see contradictory evidence, including his brilliant catches in yesterday's game, and I don't feel that I have enough evidence to say that his defence is bad enough to disqualify him from a back-up job.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#321676) #
"....Whether having been caught cheating he lied about it? He clearly did...."

You've worked yourself up into a lather of righteous moral indignation, like some Bible-thumping preacher, with absolute confidence in the unshakeable truth of everything you say.  Climb down from your pulpit and consider again the messy nature of reality on the ground, where mortals live.  If it is so "clear" that Colabello lied in his statement, why is it so much less obvious to the people who actually know Colabello, including people like John Lott and Kevin Pillar?  They are prepared to keep an open mind, so why is your mind so closed when you are so far away?   Do you think there's an inverse relationship between proximity and the ability to discern the truth?  Isn't it possible that the people who are with the Jays might be aware of details and nuances that elude the average fan?

In your first statement, you said it was obvious that Colabello cheated in 2015, not just in 2016 when he tested negative.  When I challenged you on this part of it, you didn't repeat it in your second version. Do you still think it is "obvious" and "clear" that he cheated in 2015?  If so, where is your evidence?  If you're just saying that he must have cheated because his hitting was better than before, then presumably you also believe that Bautista and Encarnacion must have been cheating because of the sudden change in their hitting abilities.  To make the situation even more complicated:  what about the widely reported suspicion that large numbers of baseball players take PEDs without being caught?  If that's true, then we really are in a muddle when we attack Colabello while ignoring the many others who take PEDs without being caught.  Was he maybe just trying to level the playing field?  Who knows, but moral certitude is probably inappropriate here.

When people like me and John Lott and Kevin Pillar suggest that we should keep an open mind, a lot of this is in response to the notion that Colabello is a long-time cheater whose 2015 season was purely a result of PEDs.  It's not because we are naively ignoring evidence, it's because there isn't any evidence, aside from statistical variations.  Do you believe that every PED user was using drugs for their entire careers?  If so, at least admit that you are guessing and speculating, rather than basing it on hard evidence.  Colabello was setting team records for Minnesota in April 2014 -- was he also using PEDs then?  I know what your answer will be, but I prefer an open mind.

By the way, people with an open mind don't need to propose an alternative theory.  And we're not "closed to the obvious."  We just know that there's a ton of mystery and ambiguity and complexity in life and baseball, which cannot always be quantified in statistics or announced results of drug tests.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#321677) #
Moving on to fresher subjects:  which hitter would you promote from Buffalo after today's game?  It's been virtually confirmed that it will be a hitter, not a pitcher, who is promoted when Hutchison is demoted after today's game.  Who should it be?

Montero is one possibility, since he hits well against LHB and could platoon with Smoak.  I was surprised, however, that he didn't play in yesterday's Bisons game.  You'd think the Jays would want one more look at him before making a decision.  And his defence is questionable, so he might have to play only at DH, which presents a possible risk for Encarnacion (playing at 1B).

Matt Dominguez is another possibility.  He has one of the best hitting records on the Bisons this season, and is an excellent defender.  And he's already on the 40-man roster.  But do the Jays need another infielder? 

If the Jays are concerned about wear-and-tear on Russell Martin, maybe Sanchez or Jimenez could be promoted? 

Andy Burns is another possibility (despite his slow start), if we give credence to all the praise he got from Gibbons during the spring.  His positional flexibility would be an asset on the bench.

And the best hitter on the Bisons this season has been Casey Kotchman, who also happens to be a 1B.   So it could even be him.

Lots of possibilities, but no obvious choice at this point.



uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#321678) #
They're all possibilities. No clear choice.

Dominguez and Burns provide the most defensive versatility. Montero's not actually hitting all that well for a 1B - heck Kotchman is outhitting him.

Actually, Casilla is hitting pretty well and gives us even more defensive versatility.

and Bourn started for Dunedin yesterday, btw.

uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#321679) #
As for Carrera's defense, there's never been any doubts about his range, nor his (over)willingness to make diving catches.
scottt - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#321680) #
Every player is tested at the begging of spring training. During the year the testing is random.
Having failed a test once, Colabello will now be tested 6 times a year.

The samples are divided into an A and a B samples. If sample A test positive, a test of sample B is scheduled within 10 days in the presence of representatives of the player and of the player association, to eliminate the possibility of false positive.

Players have the right to claim ignorance but they cannot put in doubt the testing methodology without losing confidentiality rights. So, their agent will probably tell them to say they don't know what happened and move on. The truth comes out in a book or a news article many years later.

uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#321681) #
Carrera back in the leadoff spot today, which after yesterday and given that an extra day off never hurts a hammy recovery, isn't a bad call.

Potentially more interesting is Barney finally getting a start instead of Goins, though it is up against the lefty Surkamp, so for now it's probably just a platoon thing.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#321682) #
On another note, especially after yesterday's mini-breakout, I sure hope they smash this career minor league soft tossing lefty today.
Paul D - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#321683) #
Scott, the possibility of false positives is reduced, not eliminated. I'm at the game, but I'll try to dig up some articles later. I think it was either fangraphs or prospectus that had some good stuff on it.
Paul D - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#321684) #
I wondered if Pillar would get a day off today, to reward carrera for yesterday's game and to give Pillar a break. Guess Saunders still needs the break, and/or Hutchison needs the best defence possible
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#321685) #
Russell Martin has been scratched from the game, replaced by Thole.

You know what the Jays need right now?  A third catcher who could also DH.  Someone like, oh, I don't know.... Dioner Navarro??   

Kasi - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#321686) #
Martin out again, so yay to more Thole I guess.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#321687) #
And yes, I realize that Navarro is hitting badly this season.  But it's only 31 plate appearances, a little early to judge.  He's also getting $4-million, which the Jays didn't want to pay.  But I still think $4-million is a reasonable insurance policy in case of a Martin injury.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#321688) #
Interestingly, Matt Dominguez is playing at 1B in today's game for the Bisons, while Montero is back at DH.  Are they trying to get Dominguez ready for possible 1B work in the majors?
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#321689) #
And I had missed the fact that Dominguez was also playing at 1B yesterday too.  Two consecutive games at 1B for a natural 3B who has a higher defensive value at 3B, while both Kotchman and Montero were each benched for one of those two games.   Seems like a strong hint that Dominguez could be promoted today.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#321690) #
In 2015, the Jays were 8-7 through 15 games, with good Offense. Their biggest problem was the Bullpen.
In 2016, the Jays were 8-7 through 15 games, with average Offense. Their biggest problem is the Bullpen.
In 2015, they finished off the month 11-12 going 3-5 over the last eight games.
In 2016, there are two more games to play than in 2015. The Jays are 1-3 with 6 games remaining.

In 2015, the Jays went 2-5 in week two and lost four straight at the end of week three.
In 2016, the Jays lost four straight in week one and three straight this week.
As in 2015, when the Jays learn how to stop the bleeding, they'll win a lot of games. Until then, they just have to avoid being buried.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#321691) #
if martin needs this much rest than sanchez or jimenez would be a smart call.
Alex Obal - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#321692) #
Hello, this is the Carrera Island tourism board...
Magpie - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#321693) #
You can not stop him. You can only contain him.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#321694) #
carrera and barney are exactly the kind of depth spark we needed. lineup's been way too top heavy so far.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#321695) #
I missed the HR hutch gave up - destroyed or barely out?
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#321696) #
So far today, Carrera/Smoak/Pillar/Barney have 6 hits in 8 plate appearances.   Really helps to balance the lineup.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#321697) #
just watched davis' hr - holy crap how did he get that out of the park at all? let alone opposite way. that's some crazy power from a kinda protective swing.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#321698) #
Did Hutchison just walk the leadoff hitter on 4 pitches with a 6-1 lead? Apparently he's not ready to return yet.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#321699) #
Hutch pretty much looks the same as last year. Command not good.
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#321700) #
it's just weird. he looks so good then suddenly has at bats where he's just nowhere close.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#321701) #
Drew Hutchison: 95 pitches were thrown over 5.2 IP with 55 for strikes. He needs to do better.

Apparently the wind is blowing out at the Rogers Center. Either that or pitch selection/application is lacking.
JB21 - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#321702) #
Overall, a pretty good spot start from your 6th starter. Hopefully we can tack on a couple here.
jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#321703) #
I thought Hutch looked solid - some nice K's, a few borderline balls called against him.  More control would be great, but he's in a pretty lousy situation - MLB ready but getting called up to start one game and demoted the next day really hurts both the pocketbook and the pro ego IMO.  I'm sure there's lots of pressure on him which makes it tough to get comfortable, although he is a genuine luxury to the club as the 6th guy if he can handle the uncertainty of his role. 

it would be great if we had a catcher in the minors that we could promote and demote without concern for options, Thole looks bad everywhere and with Dickey struggling, he may have a short lease.  If he can't even assist Dickey in performing well, he has no role whatsoever on the team. 

If Dickey continues to struggle, how about flipping him and Chavez?  not suggesting that Dickey's on a short leash - give him another month or two at least - but if he just can't get right in the rotation, he could go the Hoyt Wilhelm role that Mike Green suggested a while back.   And this would allow us to part ways with Thole .... although who knows, maybe he would accept the minor league assignment - is there another team out there that he fits with? 

Kasi - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#321704) #
Oakland has one of the weaker lineups in the league. If Hutch looks like this against them I don't want to see him play against Boston, NY or Baltimore. It's a nice luxury to have as an occasional sixth starter to give Stroman, Sanchez and Happ a bit more time off, but I think Hutch's window of being a major league starter is closing unless he makes some significant improvements.
jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#321705) #
Hutch is 25, has 3.8 WAR over the past two years and has returned successfully from a major injury.  His development path many not have been perfect, but he's an MLB starter and a valuable asset while under team control.  He was wildly unlucky last year and was a major breakout / star candidate as recently as one year back.  solid stuff, good pedigree, early success in MLB - honestly, aside from a few walks today, what's not to like?

I'll certainly take a career xfip of 4.00 with upside. 

Glad I chose yesterday to dis Carrera - what a series - but props to Zaun for calling him a backup OF 'at best' after the game today.

China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#321706) #
Dominguez was 1-for-3 with a double and a walk in today's Buffalo game, while Montero was 2-for-4 with a double.  Burns and Jimenez were both 0-for-4.    We'll see who gets promoted, but Dominguez might be the leading candidate.  Dominguez is also the only candidate who has remaining options and who wouldn't require someone else to be dropped from the 40-man roster to make room for him.
China fan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#321707) #
"....solid stuff, good pedigree, early success in MLB - honestly, aside from a few walks today, what's not to like?...."

I'm with you on Hutch.   He's fine for an occasional spot starter, and I still think he has potential for 2017.  Still, if the Jays needed a starter for a prolonged period because of an injury, I think I might rather see Floyd stretched out. 
uglyone - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#321708) #
sounds like Sale came down with a case of the blue jays flu. he's been pushed back....not sure how far though. either way with stro going tommorrow I want us to be above .500 tommorrow night and then never see .500 again.
Magpie - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#321709) #
MLB ready but getting called up to start one game and demoted the next day really hurts both the pocketbook

Pretty sure it doesn't affect his pocketbook. He signed for $2.2 million, and I believe he gets it whether he's in Toronto or Buffalo.
baagcur - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#321710) #
Perhaps he has to pay for transport
jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#321711) #
right Magpie, thanks for that point - he's not at the minimum anymore.  2.2 million makes it a lot easier to ride the Buffalo shuttle!  Still think it's a tough gig for him, but i imagine the org has made it clear to him that he's a key piece.  He has options next year too so he might be on the shuttle for a little while - if Dickey is good enough to get a QO (possible) he might be one of those fringe QO guys who accepts - meaning back to Buffalo for Hutch. 
scottt - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#321712) #
It would take at least 3 starts to stretch Floyd properly. I wouldn't do that unless it's to replace someone for at least a month, not a 14 day DL trip for a minor thing.
scottt - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#321713) #
He stands at 1-0 with an ERA under 4.0. Why would his Ego be bruised.
jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#321714) #
because he is an MLB calibre starter who has been demoted to AAA not because of his performance but because he has options and the FO signed expensive vets to fill his spot in the rotation.  wouldn't you be pissed?  I would.  I hate the whole premise of workers not getting treated with respect - I know, they make millions, yada yada.  it's kindof a principle thing though - i want all the players to be treated equitably, including the guys in rookie ball.  Hutch just happens to be a relevant example at the big league level. 
Chuck - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#321715) #
He has options next year too so he might be on the shuttle for a little while

Starting pitchers are a volatile lot. Hutchison will likely see more duty in 2016 for some reason we don't yet know about. It's much too early for him to fret about what 2017 might bring.

jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#321716) #
It's early for US to fret about it ... but if I'm Hutch, I'm fretting away about this year, next year and the rest of my career.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#321717) #
You've worked yourself up into a lather of righteous moral indignation, like some Bible-thumping preacher, with absolute confidence in the unshakeable truth of everything you say. Climb down from your pulpit and consider again the messy nature of reality on the ground, where mortals live...

When people like me and John Lott and Kevin Pillar suggest that we should keep an open mind, a lot of this is in response to the notion that Colabello is a long-time cheater whose 2015 season was purely a result of PEDs..

By the way, people with an open mind don't need to propose an alternative theory. And we're not "closed to the obvious." We just know that there's a ton of mystery and ambiguity and complexity in life and baseball, which cannot always be quantified in statistics or announced results of drug tests.


So that's it? You were asked to provide a plausible alternate explanation to the plainly obvious one, that Colabello got caught cheating with turinabol, and when caught cheating lied about it, and instead you provide some banal drivel that goes "there's a ton of mystery and ambiguity and complexity in life and baseball". And despite there being "tons" of this supposed "mystery and ambiguity and complexity" which would explain away an irrefutable scientific test, you're not able to point to an ounce out of this "ton". When you're unable to identify any plausible explanation other than the obvious one, you tell us you don't have to. And this strikes you as a rational argument?

It is apparent that you do you understand what an open mind is. An open mind assesses the facts objectively and bases its decision on evidence. In this case, Colabello failed a foolproof drug test. As I explained before the WADA tests are two-fold. His first sample failed a gateway ratio test, for which the threshold is four times the usual amount of testosterone. When that test is failed, WADA (and thus MLB and the MLBPA) require a carbon isotope test on a second sample, which determines the ratio of manufactured testosterone, in this case acquired through use of the anabolic steroid turinabol, to natural testosterone, to conclusively determine whether a player has used a prohibited substance. When the second sample is determined to be over a clearly defined threshold for cheating, it is determined that the second sample fails also and the player is cheating. If there is some conceivable explanation as to how a player would have that much turinabol in his system, the player is offered an opportunity to explain on appeal. Colabello failed at all three steps, and then offered up the familiar and dull lie that he had "no idea how this anabolic steroid got into his system", despite the proven fact that it came through the drug turinabol. In the simplest and most true words, he got caught cheating with turinabol (the third player in a short time) and when caught, told the age old lie that we've heard at least since Seoul.

An 'open mind' accepts the plainly obvious as opposed to ignoring proven scientific conclusion in favour of the banalities that you have offered up. An open mind is not an empty one. If indeed there is some plausible explanation for how turinabol was present in Colabello to an extent sufficient for WADA, and thus the MLB and MLBPA, to conclude he is a drug cheat, then let's hear it. Colabello sure hasn't offered one. Babble-shlock about "tons of mystery and ambiguity and complexity" or "me and John Lott and Kevin Pillar have an open mind" isn't a plausible alternate explanation.

Your effort to conflate 2015 and 2016 is of no assistance to you. I wholly acknowledge that that there is no hard scientific proof that Colabello, only inference. I wholly embrace the distinction between the hard scientific proof that Colabello cheated by using turinabol in 2016, and the absence of that hard scientific proof in 2015. It's you, not me, who fails to acknowledge the difference, because you have closed your mind to the plain and obvious conclusion that Colabello got caught cheating by using turinabol in 2016.

Finally, I note your ironic use of religious metaphor. In insisting on the proven and obvious, that Colabello has cheated and lied about it, I am a "Bible-thumping" preacher (very very bad indeed), while you claim membership as one of the Trinity of "me and John Lott and Kevin Pillar", the Doubters who offer no explanation but urge us to ignore science for nothing at all concrete. First off, as a device of argument, your effort to associate me with the 'Bible-thumper" and you with John and Kev, those with whom you hope the reader will find favour, is too transparent to have the effect you wish. But moreover, religious metaphor is not your friend here. Your protests ask us to favour Kumbaya gibberish about "tons" of (identified) "mystery and ambiguity and complexity" which we need not be told about but should just accept on the basis of nothing more than faith, over clear scientific proof that Colabello cheated with an anabolic steroid.
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#321718) #
I liked starting Hutchison today. It might be early for a spot starter to push everyone back a day, but the starters have been eating up a lot of innings so far (on modest pitch counts but still). Never a bad thing to have a capable MLB starter like Hutch have a spot start here or there. As mentioned, he'll be needed at some point in the year. You can't expect the current five SP's to never miss a turn the rest of the season, so he and probably Chavez as well will likely be needed/used as SP's again. The later the season goes, the less I think they'll convert Floyd back to a SP, but with the way he's pitching out of the pen, he might provide a ton of value there as well assuming Gibbons uses him in high leverage spots more often.
jerjapan - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#321719) #
SK, I'm starting to think that the FO's plan is clear - Hutch is the 6th starter.  It's a perfect scenario for them since he doesn't need to be stretched out - just plan ahead to align the AAA rotation with the MLB one, and call him up when you need him.  If someone's injured they can just skip that guy and slot Hutch in whenever the can get him enough rest.  If it's a 6 starters this week type idea, they can plan ahead.  It will allow them to manage Sanchez's IP well. 

I don't like Hutch in AAA, but i get where Shapatkins is going with this. 
Mike Green - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#321720) #
CBDC, science helps you answer pretty conclusively the question: "was there steroid above the natural occurring level in the player's system?", but not the "explanation" question.  It may not be relevant for suspension purposes whether the player got the steroid there accidentally (for instance in a supplement) or on purpose, but the label "cheater" is harsh if the player didn't intend to cheat.  To take two examples, Melky Cabrera pretty clearly intentionally took PEDs and took elaborate steps to hide his use whereas Stroman took a very weak PED most likely accidentally (in my view).  It's fine if you believe that Colabello is likely in the first category.
scottt - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#321721) #
Article 10. C requires all major club to provide all players on their 25 roster with approved supplements.
There is no reason, for any players to use non-approved supplements unless they believe they contains Performance Enhancing Substances that are not banned. Why not just get your supplement of choice approved and provided to you free of charge? Or just use what everybody else is using?

Article 3. I covers Therapeutic Use Exemptions.

When the player say "I don't know why I tested positive." he's essentially pleading no contest.

MLB and its testing agency have no need to prove intent or motive.
They are only interested in proving, without doubts, that a player was using a banned substance.
The player is not required to provide an explanation or show guilt.

Every player is tested during spring training. 3200 tests are done randomly during the year.
Known offenders are tested 6 times a year. It becomes very difficult to cheat at that point.

Stroman wasn't on the 25 roster, so it's likely he was responsible for his own supplements at the time.


scottt - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#321722) #
Technically, it's not Happ and Estrada who took Hutch's spot. It's Sanchez.

It's very important to have starters to last the whole year. That was always AA's mistake.

2014: Dickey, Buherle, Hutchison, Morrow has 6 starts than gone until September, Happ starts in the pen and replaces him in May. McGowan has 8 starts than moves to the pen. Hendriks has 2 good starts becore Stroman moves to the rotation at the end of May. Hendriks has another start at the end of June before he's traded at the deadline with Kratz for Valencia.

Incidentally, Valencia has never stopped hitting. He's got an OBP of .345 this year and might have been a better choice than Carrera in left field and could have split some first base with Smoak.
He's Oakland's regular third baseman, just on the DL this week. As long as one doesn't mind paying 3M, anyway.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#321723) #
Mike, I don't and couldn't disagree that if there was exculpatory evidence that would show Colabello failed two tests because of accidental consumption of turinabol, that this would remove him from the category of a plain and obvious cheater. I've not read anything at all that suggests there is any such evidence.<br><br>

First of all, I doubt very much that the WADA isotope test is triggered by the amount of anabolic steroid that could be secondarily consumed in trace amounts. I've seen nothing that would support that conclusion. <br><br>

But moreover, I'm afraid Colabello's good friend Kevin Pillar hurt more than helped Colabello in this regard. Usually when these guys are caught, they tell us tales about taking supplements, often acquired on the road, and not paying enough attention to what was contained, and 'apologize' not for cheating, but for their pretend 'inattention'. The Nixonian non-apology apology.  If I recall, this was the David Ortiz line. <br><br>

But Pillar pretty much did Colabello in on that one. He is reported to have said exactly the opposite about Colabello, that he was extremely careful about which  supplements he used, and never obtained them when travelling. He's <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-first-baseman-colabello-handed-80-game-ban-by-mlb/article29723915/">quoted as saying</a>: <br><br>

<i>“Being around Chris and getting out and<b> travelling I know how careful he is with the supplements he takes. He’s a guy that travels with his own stuff. He doesn’t go to a smoothie place and ask for the protein. He provides his own.</b>”</i><br><br>

Not much room left there for the 'who knows where it came from' defence. If by some extraordinary chance, one of the supplements that Colabello, and perhaps the other guys who got caught recently using turinabol, contained extraordinary amounts of turinabol that would cause Colabello to fail the WADA tests, that's obviously open to him to demonstrate, either at his appeal (which he clearly didn't) or now in public. Instead, the same article tells us that Colabello declined the opportunity to say anything at all.<br><br>

As we know, one can't simply invent that exculpatory evidence out of thin air, as some would have us believe, especially thin hot air. I've seen nothing whatsoever that would suggest any other conclusion than Colabello is the common drug cheat, who when caught using a currently popular steroid, gave the template lies about having no idea how this anabolic steroid got in his system. Not a shred of exculpatory evidence at all.  He's sure not claiming it got there through the supplements that Pillar has told us he was very careful in consuming, and for obvious reason. That's a matter to be proven, and he's shown nothing whatsoever in this regard. Until he shows any evidence whatsoever that he is other than the garden variety drug cheat, I see no reason to assume otherwise.<br><br>

I think the nub of the matter is that internet culture wants to assume that PED cheating, and lying about it afterward, is OK. That it's somehow cool. Various versions of moral relativism (such as an extraordinary column by the very likeable  Shi Davidi last year, in which he wrote that baseball is a long season and he could see how players dip into the steroids, and which made me wonder if he'd say the same about baseball writers in the same long season dipping into some plagiarism); bizarre theories that major league baseball had somehow 'legalized' the possession and use of anabolic steroids when Congress specifically made such possession and use (without a prescription) illegal in 1990, etc... <br><br>

I obviously swim against that internet current and don't hesitate to call drug cheats exactly that. It's not just  because of what strikes me as the intellectual bankruptcy of the 'PEDs are OK' crew. I've been a baseball fan for half a century, and a close fan for more than 40 years. Part of the game is its sacred records. 60, 61 (and 61*), 714, 715, 755 - all of these are important numbers. On the other hand, Barry Bonds' 'records', meaningless numbers achieved by cheating and defacing a beautiful game, mean nothing at all to me. It would be easier of course, to simply fall in with the Primer crowd, and loudly cheer Rodriguez on when his lawyers claim they will attack major league baseball, then quickly fall silent when the DEA gets involved and Rodriguez immediately recants the lies he's been telling for years, but the stupidity of it would make me throw up I'm afraid. <br><br>

Anyway, long post, late night. Cheers.





ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#321724) #
Yikes. Switched from Safari to FF when my post didn't take in Safari, and Firefox obviously doesn't like my html
pubster - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#321725) #
CBDC, some people think that an open mind means that you have the ability to believe something that goes against the facts.

ie. I know my dna was at the scene of the crime, and 5 people saw me do it, but have an open mind.
Magpie - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#321726) #
I think Steve Buffery makes a whole lot of sense on the whole Colabello issue. (I'm not at home, I can't do links properly, but try copy and pasting this:)

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/04/23/blue-jays-chris-colabello-needs-to-prove-his-innocence

The gist of it :

If Colabello didn’t knowingly use Turinabol, does he not owe it to himself — and the Blue Jays organization — to at least try to figure out how it got into his system? Seems to me any athlete slapped with an 80-game suspension without pay, along with the shame of testing positive, would go all out to get to the bottom of his positive test. Wouldn’t you hire lawyers, consult drug specialists, etc, to find out how the substance got into your system? Perhaps Colabello will do that, though there’s no word yet on what his plans are going forward. But if he doesn’t pursue the reasons for his positive, what does that mean? Wouldn’t you go down kicking and screaming if you tested positive and you’re innocent?

Makes sense to me.
John Northey - Sunday, April 24 2016 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#321727) #
When it comes to guys using now and getting caught I have no sympathy but I do wonder, if Bonds hit 69 home runs in 2001 instead would it even have been an issue? He was so hated by media that he became the poster boy for PED use even though it was McGwire who was caught with stuff in his locker, in the midst of his 70 HR season.

Bonds I have sympathy for due to that. There isn't much question he started due to the way the media treated McGwire in '98 and due to the fact MLB turned a blind eye to it all back then. Basically what MLB and the media said in 1998 was you were a sucker if you didn't use PEDs and please use more as HR's bring in the fans. Bonds just did a better job with it than anyone dreamed possible - breaking records no one thought could be touched, all time OBP and Slg records that were video game numbers. I figure if Bonds was hit by a truck in the winter of 98/99 then we might still not have testing in MLB.

What does this have to do with the Colabello situation? Basically that unlike Bonds (and Clemens and many others) he broke a well known rule that has clear penalties and it would take a lot more than 'I dont know how it got into me' to make me go 'OK, he might be innocent'.
China fan - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#321728) #
"....CBDC, science helps you answer pretty conclusively the question: "was there steroid above the natural occurring level in the player's system?", but not the "explanation" question...."

With this one-sentence rebuttal, Mike has pretty plainly demolished the very lengthy posts by CBDC.   But let me add a couple more sentences to make it plainer. 

CBDC seems to think that I am challenging the science of the March 13 test results, and then he winds himself up into frothing outrage at this notion. In fact he created a straw man.   I have never said that the March 13 test results are wrong.  I have been addressing his claim that Colabello must have been a cheater in 2015 too.  CBDC has absolutely no "science" to support his second argument, but he makes it anyway.

Let's be a little more specific.  Some people have noted that "false positives" can happen in test results.  (This hasn't been my argument, but for the sake of fairness I am acknowledging this argument.)  For this reason, there is a tiny amount of doubt about the March 13 results.  So let's say it is 99.9 per cent likely that the test results are accurate.  (Maybe it is 98 per cent, I don't know, but there is a tiny amount of doubt about the results.)  Then there's the question of the explanation.  Is he a deliberate cheater, or was it an accident?  Again, I agree with those who say that it's most likely that he's a cheater.  Let's hypothetically say that it's 90 per cent likely that he deliberately cheated.  You'll see that this estimate still overwhelmingly points the finger of blame at Colabello for the March 13 test results, while still allowing for the very small possibility that it was accidental or a false positive.  Now, why would anyone want to insist that it is 100 per cent certain?  To say that it is 90 per cent likely is still a heavy criticism of Colabello, while still allowing for the very small possibility that something else might explain it.  I'm quite content to say that there's a 90 per cent chance that Colabello deliberately cheated, and I don't see why this would outrage anyone.  Nobody here is blindly defending him. And what's the satisfaction in declaring 100 per cent certainty?  Even our judiciary uses this kind of calculation -- "balance of probabilities" in some cases, "beyond a reasonable doubt" in other cases, and even then there are appeals that sometimes overturn the initial decision.  Some people spend years in jail and then are freed and receive an apology and compensation.  We're all fully entitled to strongly believe that someone is guilty, but I don't see why anyone would demand that everyone else must adopt the same level of certitude.

But all of this is somewhat beside the point, since my "open mind" argument was focused on 2015, not 2016.  And let's again admit that it's quite possible that Colabello cheated in 2015 too.  But we don't have scientific evidence -- we only know that he passed the tests.  Let's assign a 50 per cent probability to the notion that he cheated in 2015. (Based on his likely PED use in 2016 and the statistical rise in performance from 2014 to 2015, while acknowledging that he passed the tests.)   Are you insisting that we must agree to your opinion that he must have cheated in 2015 too?   I'm only saying that there is a greater possibility of doubt about 2015 than there is about 2016.  None of this is a naive claim that he must be innocent.   None of this is ignoring science.  None of this is a "closed mind."  It's just an attempt to assess reality objectively.
China fan - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 05:42 AM EDT (#321729) #
"...I think the nub of the matter is that internet culture wants to assume that PED cheating, and lying about it afterward, is OK...."

Not a single person in this forum has suggested that it is "OK" to cheat and lie.  You'll have to find another nub.  Right-wing arguments about "moral relativism" are irrelevant here, so you'll have to search for another nub.

What you might find, if you're fair about it, is the argument that the testing system is still not good enough to catch most cheaters.  In that case, we have a system in which some people are excoriated as cheaters while others are seen as heroes, even though both groups have taken the same substances.  If this is true (and many experts believe it is), then why must we adopt a pose of moral certitude after a test is announced?  If the system is flawed, it should be possible for people to debate it.
China fan - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 05:50 AM EDT (#321730) #
"...some people think that an open mind means that you have the ability to believe something that goes against the facts...."

That's ridiculous.  On this forum, especially, where we prefer to use data in every argument, it's clear that everyone here has respect for evidence and science.

But I would challenge the idea that "data" can be equated to "facts."  There can be data and statistics to support the "fact" that Player A is an excellent pitcher, yet that "fact" can be shown to be questionable after a few games of contradictory data.  Perceived "facts" can always be tested and revised. 
Parker - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#321732) #
The way I see it, it's a fact that Colabello failed his drug test. Everyone for some reason wants so badly to give equal credence to "both sides of the story" these days, as if Colabello's statement that he did not knowingly take any banned substances somehow cancels out the irrefutable evidence of a failed drug test? Do people see Colabello's statement as actual EVIDENCE to support his side of the story?

The problem I see with giving ANY weight to Colabello's statement is the fact that someone who is guilty would likely say exactly the same thing.
85bluejay - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#321733) #
Regarding the Colabello situation - I choose not to believe Colabello - just as I didn't believe Sharapova or most athletes caught cheating - if I were in Colabello shoes - older, playing in independent ball with no prospects - I probably would have been very tempted to use PEDs - so I'm not angry/upset - I'm just moving on - I was hoping the jays traded Colabello this past offseason because I was never a true believer and I've never liked having 3 limited defensive players in EE/Smoak/Colabello with the team carrying so many pitchers - i think the Jays will be better for having a more versatile defensive player (Burns/Dominguez) on the bench. I am also happy that Smoak and his LHB will likely get an extended look - finally!!
uglyone - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#321734) #
great discussion, gents!
SK in NJ - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#321735) #
I'm in the same boat as 85bluejay. I was never a fan of bringing Colabello back (unsustainable BABIP, lack of positional versatility on the bench, etc), and I had a feeling that he would be the starting 1B even with Smoak on the roster since Gibby liked him so much. If anything, Colabello being suspended helps the Jays. They'll add a better bench player to take his spot, Smoak will get regular AB's (his BB + power combo still intrigues me), and now we won't have to sit through 2-3 months of Cola's regression back into a pumpkin.

I'd care more about this story if the player suspended was an important part of the team, but I think this suspension actually benefits the Jays greatly, so I'm not really paying attention to whether he's lying or telling the truth. Sucks for him, but he made his bed.
uglyone - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#321736) #
the one thing we might miss about him is his clubhouse presence. by all accounts everyone loved him and he helped keep things positive.

but then again, that probably doesn't even matter.
sweat - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#321737) #
Add me to the list of people who aren't 100% sure that certain guys have cheated. I agree that it's much likelier that Colla knowingly took this drug than didn't.
For me there are a few things that give me reason to allow for a little doubt.
How are the samples tested?
Is there the possibility of contamination based on farming practices of animals (hormones, steroids, whatever)?
Is there some possibility of sabotage from people in the food industry?
Again, I understand what's most likely, but i don't think it can be 100%, especially without some paper trail of how this drug was purchased.
Zaun made one of his rare valid points about this, that the drug test Colla failed was a schedule drug test.
vw_fan17 - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#321738) #
I obviously swim against that internet current and don't hesitate to call drug cheats exactly that. It's not just  because of what strikes me as the intellectual bankruptcy of the 'PEDs are OK' crew. I've been a baseball fan for half a century, and a close fan for more than 40 years. Part of the game is its sacred records. 60, 61 (and 61*), 714, 715, 755 - all of these are important numbers. On the other hand, Barry Bonds' 'records', meaningless numbers achieved by cheating and defacing a beautiful game, mean nothing at all to me.

CDBC - just curious what your opinion is about "greenies", and whether they in any way relate to the "sacred" numbers you posted above? Some would say that, if today's drug testing had been in place for 100 years, some of your "sacred" numbers would also be considered "meaningless", or would have never happened... (as some say: it's better never to look at your heroes too closely)
Lylemcr - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#321739) #
Hutch is a good 6th starter. With Sanchez and Stroman in the lineup, the 6th starter will helpful to make sure they are available for the playoffs, assuming the jays make it.
pubster - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#321740) #
China fan, you make a lot of great points.

However, when you say things like "CBDC seems to think that I am challenging the science of the March 13 test results, and then he winds himself up into frothing outrage" it becomes hard to take you too seriosuly. You obviously don't know that CBDC was in a "frothing outrage". You just made it up. So after a comment like that I wonder, how much of what you say is made up to get a response, and how much is real analysis.

Just some feedback :)
jerjapan - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#321741) #
"Everyone for some reason wants so badly to give equal credence to "both sides of the story" these days"

I totally agree with you Parker - it drives me nuts when major media sources give climate change deniers equal airtime, for example - but as Sweat points out, you can't rule out some random longshots entirely. Cola almost certainly cheated IMO - but that almost is still important.

I was also something of a Cola supporter and figured he might be the sort of hitter who could maintain a high BABIP (although not last years high). but it will be interesting to see Smoak get some burn and I hope we go with a versatile guy like Burns over another DH like Montero.
Mike Green - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#321742) #
The stakes are ENORMOUS for fringe players -- sometimes the difference between poverty and prosperity (especially for players from poor countries, maybe not for Colabello who has a university degree). Pro-Am and lower minor league players make poverty-line wages (~$2k/month). Colabello's career earnings might look something like this:

2005-2011: ~$10k/year
2012: ~$10k-$20k (signed with Twins org.)
2013: $200k (played 1/3 season in MLB)
2014: $250k (played 1/2 season in MLB)
2015: $420k (played 5/6 season in MLB).
2016: $521k (projected - based on full season in MLB).

Do I have sympathy for Colabello? No. But if PEDs are the difference between making $10k and $500k, I certainly understand why he might make that decision, especially when he sees others around him doing it.

To be clear, I don't have any sympathy for someone with a university degree in the United States who intentionally uses PEDs to attempt to earn a higher income than he could otherwise.  Greed, at low levels and high, is part of humanity but it's not at the heart of the better angels of our nature. On the other hand, it would be nice at least to read an arbitrator's decision and reasons and to hear from Colabello before coming to conclusions.

The White Sox are coming to town.  Their leaders in OBP are Melky Cabrera and Brett Lawrie.  Must be something blowin' in the wind!   On another note, there is an advantage for the Sox in holding back Sale a day.  He is now facing Dickey which means that Thole will be catching.  Much better for Sale than facing Martin, Russell's current struggles notwithstanding.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#321743) #

BlueJayWay - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#321744) #
This White Sox series might be tough. Sale is Sale, Quintana can roll, and for some reason the Jays have trouble hitting Miguel Gonzalez.

OTOH the Sox aren't hitting anything.

cybercavalier - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#321745) #
About the discussion per se about Colabello, why discuss ? To join the buzz ? I know this question may appear metaphysical but be interesting to ask.

About White Sox' roster, why does it seem accommodating many "cast-off" from other MLB rosters ?

92-93 - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#321747) #
I just noticed that Melky Cabrera, the last juicer CBDC ran out of baseball in this forum, is currently hitting .333/.405/.485. Should be fun watching him, Lawrie, and Sale this week.
hypobole - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#321748) #
Melky's hot start this year has pushed his fWAR up to a total of 0.5 in the year plus he's spent in a White Sox uniform. He's in year 2 of his 3 yr $42 million deal. Interestingly, Ezequiel Carrera is also at 0.5 WAR in the same time frame.
uglyone - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#321749) #
WAR pace, 20 games in, way too early to mean anything:

WAR = average of fwar/bwar for hitters, average of fwar/ra9war for pitchers
Pace = 650pa, 32 starts, or 65ip

SP Estrada +5.3 (3gs)
SP Happ +4.4 (4gs)
SP Sanchez +2.0 (4gs)
SP Stroman +1.6 (4gs)
SP Hutch +0.0 (1gs)
SP Dickey -0.4 (4gs)

RP Floyd +2.0 (8.1ip)
RP Girodo +1.6 (2.0ip)
RP Osuna +0.7 (9.1ip)
RP Biagini +0.7 (4.2ip)
RP Chavez +0.5 (6.2ip)
RP Cecil +0.4 (8.2ip)
RP Morales +0.0 (0.2ip)
RP Storen -0.9 (7.1ip)
RP Venditte -2.4 (2.2ip)
RP Leon -5.6 (2.1ip)


IF Barney +12.2 (24pa)
3B Donaldson +9.4 (90pa)
OF Carrera +8.4 (27pa)
RF Bautista +6.4 (87pa)
LF Saunders +5.0 (59pa)

CF Pillar +4.3 (84pa)
C Thole +3.4 (19pa)
SS Tulo +3.3 (79pa)
1B Smoak +3.3 (39pa)
DH En'cion +0.8 (84pa)

2B Goins -4.1 (63pa)
C Martin -5.0 (59pa)
UT Cola -9.1 (32pa)
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#321750) #
Whoa! Let's all do our yoga exercises so we can follow CF's various pivots without getting whiplash.

First off, remember how CF, John Lott and Kevin Pillar were men of an open mind? It was pretty obvious that Pillar's somewhat incomprehensible comments about 'technicality' were specifically about the 2016 test. Well, CF would now have us believe that his 'open mind' comments were not the same as Pillar's at all, and it is only the 2015 season that CF was talking about. So he now claims he didn't mean to say that he and Pillar were ad idem at all. It just seemed that way.
Their minds didn't really meet he tells us now, because CF claims he was talking about 2015 while Pillar was very clearly talking about 2016. Seems disingenuous to me, but anyway...


Also, CF has a new Champion now! Instead of riding sidecar with John and Kev, CF's now with Sheriff Mike, who CF tells us 'demolished' my earlier post. I don't read Mike's post and mine in that vein, but I'll let readers whose eyes are perhaps less hopeful and more disinterested than CF's, make that determination.

And then CF tries the daring 'double pivot'. Remember how a short time ago, CF (along with his colleagues John and Kev) was a man who appreciated the unidentified "tons of mystery, ambiguity and complexity" as an explanation for how Colabello tested positive without cheating? Well now CF's a Man of Mystery no longer. Now he's a hard numbers guy, a Man of Science. In fact he tells us he was this all along. And while CF tells us at near the end of the post that he wasn't challenging the 2016 result, he spends most of the post trying to do exactly that.

Actually it turns out that CF is more a Man of Junk Science than a real Man of Science. He tells us that "some people" have noted false positives for Turinabol without pointing to any of these supposed anonymous 'experts' or any of these alleged false positives. The rate of these alleged "false positives", alleged that is by "some people", could be as high as 2%, but CF admits that he's picking this number out of his backside. He then without any expression of shame, tells us that even if the test was accurate, there is "let's say" a 10% chance that this is not a result of cheating but some "accidental" positive. this number to has been backside picked. CF has been repeatedly asked for any plausible explanation that would explain a positive test and has repeatedly failed to do so. He continues in that failure, but nonetheless warns us we should heed his words because people go to jail on false conviction.

All of this faux 'science' is utter nonsense of course. As it turns out in the real world, Turinabol is a drug specifically manufactured and marketed for drug cheats. It has, or more accurately had, a benefit to drug cheats of quickly leaving the system, and thus evading doping tests, and builds muscle without as much noticeable bulk. Manufacturers expressly tell prospective drug cheats that they can avoid testing.

Problem for the Turinabol cheats though, is that WADA recently developed better tests for it. So in December, WADA caught 17 drug cheats in weightlifting with tests. 11 of the 17 tested positive for Turinabol. MLB caught a further three, including Colabello, from last September through this season, in baseball. Colabello seems to be among the last who got the memo that Turinabol is now detectable. I'm sure WADA, MLB and MLBPA are hooting at the "I have no idea how this drug, which just happens to be a drug of choice for drug cheats, got into my system" claim. I understand that only Colabello and some UFC guy are disputing how this drug designed specifically for drug cheats (a coincidence,surely!) got in his system, and may launch an 'investigation'. I recall OJ committing when he was on trial to tracking down the 'real' killer of Ron and Nicole. Perhaps when OJ is out of the pen, they can combine their resources and launch a joint venture.

Lastly, in another post CF becomes a Man of Politics, instructing me that he'll have no "right wing" criticism of moral relativism. How criticizing moral relativism is "right wing" is not explained but that's really neither here nor there, because I'm sure I share the same lack of concern of others for what CF thinks is politically acceptable.
Kasi - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#321752) #
Normally I don't agree with China but here I will. This thing is overblown. Players have been cheating in all sports since there were options. If you're not cheating you're likely not trying. I don't condemn Colabello anymore than I condemn Bonds or anymore than I condemn all the players in the 60-70s who used amphetamines that are illegal in today's game. Especially understandable for players on that margin between making minimum wage in the minors and making hundreds of thousands in the majors.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#321753) #
CDBC - just curious what your opinion is about "greenies", and whether they in any way relate to the "sacred" numbers you posted above? Some would say that, if today's drug testing had been in place for 100 years, some of your "sacred" numbers would also be considered "meaningless", or would have never happened... (as some say: it's better never to look at your heroes too closely)

I just noticed that Melky Cabrera, the last juicer CBDC ran out of baseball in this forum, is currently hitting .333/.405/.485. Should be fun watching him, Lawrie, and Sale this week.


And just as CF tells us that there is no "PEDS are OK Crew", the "PEDS are OK Crew" members show up to spoil it. It kind of reminds me of John Crosbie's comment that "the prawwblem for da NDP is dat the 90% spoil it for the 10%".

But quickly. First, there is a huge qualitative difference between taking greenies, or drinking coffee which was another favourite Crew comparison, and taking anabolic steroids. Colabello didn't try to take greenies, nor did the weightlifters. Nor did any of the modern PED cheats. They want substances like Turinabol,which builds muscle mass to alter their body and thus their physical abilities - not substances that will keep them awake to exercise the same physical abilities. None of today's drug cheats are interested in greenies exactly because they're nothing compared to steroids. Different kettle of fish.

Second, I think Melky is a giant among cheaters. I think all of the PED cheats should go in on one plaque - that of the Melkster. Where other common PED cheats like Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, Palmeiro, Rodriguez, Ortiz etc told the same predictable lies about how they never "knowingly" took steroids (hello Colabello) Melky is a cheater with a difference. Only the Melkster came up with a non-existent supplement, and created a fake website for his non-existent supplement. While the rest of the PED cheats satisfied themselves with being garden variety cheaters and liars, Melky went all out and got creative with his fraud.

Of course I have no confidence whatsoever that the Melkster achieves anything with cheating. Anyone who says they are confident he doesn't cheat is either being dishonest, or a fool.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#321754) #
Oops. The second sentence should have read ...I have no confidence...the Melkster achieves anything withOUT cheating.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#321765) #
Normally I don't agree with China but here I will. This thing is overblown. Players have been cheating in all sports since there were options. If you're not cheating you're likely not trying.

Kasi, this is why the hawkers used to say "You can't tell the players without a program". CF's point is not at all that PEDs are OK. In fact, the PEDs are OK Crew doesn't exist here on CF's telling, despite the other posts in the thread and your post indicating otherwise. I'll leave you to decide what his point actually is now, as I've somewhat lost track (and interest).

vw_fan17 - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#321774) #
And just as CF tells us that there is no "PEDS are OK Crew", the "PEDS are OK Crew" members show up to spoil it. It kind of reminds me of John Crosbie's comment that "the prawwblem for da NDP is dat the 90% spoil it for the 10%".

Not sure how/where this "PEDS are OK Crew" things started. Or how I got put on it. I was asking for your perspective on the matter, since you're so vehemently against steroids. So, just in summary (to make sure I understand you correctly): coffee, tea, greenies (illegal without a prescription): OK. Steroids/HGH (some are legal with a prescription, AFAIK): not OK. So should players still be allowed to take greenies with a "baseball" exemption?

Just curious how you feel about other similar substances: cocaine? It's just a stimulant - doesn't increase muscle mass, but just makes you more alert and better able to perform to your maximum existing potential.. Pot? It's now legal in some parts of the country. Maybe it would have helped Steve Blass/Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblauch et all relax enough to throw properly again..

Note: I have not stated how I feel about any particular substance. I'm still trying to formulate my personal opinion.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2016 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#321779) #
You were put on it by error, vw. I apologize. I thought I was responding to someone else.
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