Pillar leads off, Encarnacion cleans up at first and Saunders bats fifth tonight.

peavy and cain have been horrendous, and we have stro to counter bum.

no excuses.

Sanchez is up. Now out. Can we bring the DH to both league or at least all interleague play?

MLB Leaders - Groundball Percentage

1. A.Sanchez 61.0%
2. M.Stroman 60.5%

Some pure defensive wizardry from Saunders this frame. Haven't seen an outfielder take a ball off the head in a long time.

Update

1. Stroman 60.5%
2. Tanaka 59.6%
3. Locke 59.6%
4. Sanchez 59.2%

why Burns now? In a two-run game with a shaky bullpen? When Smoak, Carrera, and Bailey are available?

be good, floyd.

oh hey we're back at .500 again.

maybe this time will be the last.

That's 6 games in a row with exactly 7 IP from the starting pitcher. Nifty.

Yes, FourSeamer, although I'm sure there's been a few, the last head shot with a baseball I remember is Jose Canseco's bounce off the noggin over the wall for a home run.It still cracks me up when I see it on blooper segments. At least Saunders was just in foul territory. By the way, I'm sure if any of us were shown the stats of our starting three in this series before the season started, we would have guessed our record would be lot better than it is right now.

In possible defence of Saunders, didn't he fall over the bullpen mound, which is oddly situated just past the foul line because of weird quirks in the San Francisco stadium?  Not quite the same as a Jose Canseco situation, perhaps.

I didn't see the game, but I notice that Sanchez -- in his otherwise excellent start -- did allow 5 walks in 7 innings.  Until last night, his command has been much better (12 BB in 38.1 innings).   Was last night a warning sign of possible command issues, or was he being squeezed by the umpire?  Or other explanations?

 

3 runs on 5 hits over the first three innings, then shut out with 2 hits the rest of the way. Yet another game where the bats look good early and then they just fall into hibernation. Will the O ever get going?

The offense seems to have three categories.

Performing well: Donaldson, Saunders, Pillar, Carrera/Barney (in small sample sizes)

Doing good things when they connect, but very low avg and thus inconsistent: Jose, EE, Smoak

Black Holes: Goins, Martin, Tulo, Thole.

I see this offense improving in one of two ways. Either EE and Jose return to old form and join the top group and it doesn't matter how much w black hole the bottom are, or group three improves and joins group two, or some combination of the two. Point is I think we need to see two improvements or even three among players to start getting to last years performance.

. Tulo- OPS 2016- 32 games- .569
- OPS as a Jay - 73 games- .640

. john McDonald- Career OPS- .596

I love watching Tulo's defence, but yikes. He's as puzzling as Storen and Cecil.

In defense of Tulo, a 57wrc+ is awful but not really in the same "category" of ridiculous uselessness as Martin's 7wrc+ or Goins' 9wrc+.

Worst "starting" hitters in baseball:

1. L.Morrisson -7wrc+
2. R.Martin 7
3. R.Goins 9
4. E.Aybar 13
5. C.Perez 17
6. H.Kendrick 24
7. N.Ahmed 24
8. D.Castro 24
9. C.Headley 26
10. J.Giavotella 27

13. P.Fielder 32
18. Y.Gomes 38
19. A.Lind 39
23. C.Gomez 49
24. K.Morales 50
25. A.Jones 50
32. M.Wieters 57
33. T.Tulowitzki 57
34. A.Rendon 59
39. J.Upton 61
40. J.Heyward 62
41. R.Zimmerman 62

there's a decent number of very good hitters struggling at the same level as Tulo is.

but Martin and Goins are a different story.

Give me mediocre, Jamie Campbell, give me mediocre. Campbell, discussing Stephen Strasburg's contract extension, called it a surprise given Strasburg's mediocre career.

Ahem.

Strasburg has disappointed, to be sure, because he has lost time to injury and has not met the the hype that came with his arrival. And it is certainly debatable whether he's the kind of guy you want to lock up for 7 years. But mediocre? With a career FIP of 2.80? I don't think so.

More and more, the Jays' pregame show is becoming unwatchable. Campbell means well, but offers little insight. Zaun is a caricature entirely lacking in nuance. All calculated swagger, like a wannabe Don Cherry.

And spare me Kevin Barker. He is no salve. You'd almost think he's got the gig because of family connections.

"....Martin and Goins are a different story....."

On the other hand, you've also argued that the hottest and coldest streaks should be omitted when we're assessing a hitter.  Martin, in particular, could fall into that category, since he's been so extremely worse than his career norms for the past few weeks.  I think the neck injury was one factor, but admittedly his last 3 games have been poor as well.  Still, I think he will improve.  Tulo too. 

Boy, the Russell Martin Renaissance of late last week sure was short-lived, eh? The beard was a good start, but maybe the moustache will have to go, too.

"you've also argued that the hottest and coldest streaks should be omitted when we're assessing a hitter"

yeah, no, never.

but I've definitely said not to judge players on hot or cold streaks, either.

"....I've definitely said not to judge players on hot or cold streaks, either...."

That's what I was alluding to.  And I tend to agree with this point.  Most hitters have a hot or cold month.  It's still a bit early to be drawing too many conclusions from the early part of the season.  Although it's fun to post Kevin Pillar's WAR numbers, I don't actually believe he's the third-best outfielder in the entire league.

Goins performing like this isn't much of a shock. He's always been a bad hitter save for the 2nd half of 2015 (which clearly has not been sustainable).

Martin's decline is mind boggling though. He's not even getting unlucky. His BABIP is right in line with what he normally does (.275). He's walking way less, has one extra base hit all season, is striking out more than double his career rate, and can't seem to pull the ball anymore. I'm not sure if he made an adjustment gone wrong, if he's hurt, if his bat has gone to age-related hell, or a combination of the three. Either way, nothing in his stats show any positive traits.

The Jays need Martin and Tulo to improve not only to make a run this season, but to salvage any type of value for those two in the future. They have a lot of dollars and years remaining on their deals. If they are starting their declines already, yikes.

UO doesn't seem like the kind who would omit data points.

Yeah I fully expect Martin and Tulo to bounce back.

Goins? not so much. I don't think he's an mlb hitter despite his hot streak last year. And even in my backup infielders I prefer a guy at the plate who's a scrappy battling slap hitter than an all or nothing guy like goins.

On the other hand, there's no reason to doubt Pillar imo. He was a top-50 player in MLB last year by both fwar and bwar, and is doing it again this year. He's good.

"....there's no reason to doubt Pillar imo...."

I'm not doubting him at all.  I just don't think he is the 3rd most valuable outfielder in the entire league. That doesn't mean that I doubt him.

really there's a lot to be positive about.

Martin and Tulo should surely positively regress in a big way.

Travis should replace Goins sometime in the next month.

and while saunders and smoak may be overachieving a bit, bautista and encarnacion aren't quite at their best either.

It was good to see Floyd in the 8th inning role.  It seems to me that other roles ought to be adjusted.  Here are some considerations.  You want Storen to face mostly right-handed hitters, and to stretch out Chavez so he is available to take a start or five if the rotation needs someone beyond Hutchison.  Cecil may not be at his best when he returns from paternity leave.  Newborns will do that.  Loup might be back in three weeks or so.  Which means that Girodo is due for some higher leverage work against LHBs only.  Biagini has been pretty good and isn't restricted to low leverage work. 

For the time being, I'd notionally partner Storen and Girodo for medium leverage work, use Chavez for regular longer outings (2-3 innings) of medium to high leverage and Tepera for low leverage work.  Biagini gets the residuals.  Gibbons unfortunately isn't very comfortable giving a better reliever like Chavez or Floyd multiple innings in medium leverage situations. 

not sure if he can afford to use chavez that way. IMO he's going to want to use him in high level innings with storen and cecil demoted, though he'll try to keep chavez away from lefties as much as possible.

Yeah, Chavez has to be in the mix for high leverage outings since there's a closer Gibbon's is trying to not overwork and a setup guy with a lengthy injury history that has only ever pitched on back-to-back days once in his career (in 2007) before his appearance yesterday.

With the starters going 6-7 innings, Chavez for 2-3 innings once a week and 1 inning once a week should be doable.  It just takes a little patience and sang-froid on the manager's part.

The club has been in only 5 blowouts (4 wins) this season.  With many more close games, you have to figure out a way to use the right reliever in the right situation.  So take tonight.  Floyd pitched yesterday, Sunday and Friday.  He should have the day off.  Osuna pitched yesterday and Sunday.  Ideally he gets the day off.  You have Happ starting tonight with Stroman coming back tomorrow afternoon.  The Giants are quite evenly balanced as between RH and LH hitters, but the LH hitters (Belt, Panik, Crawford, Span) hit left-hand pitching very well with very little platoon differentials over their career.   Jesse Chavez threw 8 pitches on Sunday and before that hadn't thrown in 5 days.  It would be a great day for him to throw 2 or 3 innings depending on how he is throwing and the game situation.  It's probably not a great game for Girodo.  You could let Storen take an inning with Duffy, Posey and Pence among the four hitters due, but I wouldn't do that in a tight situation (preferring Chavez by quite a bit). 

well he's got 3 guys in Floyd Chavez and Biagini who have all been very good, and are all flexible enough to go multiple innings. Hard to tell which setup would be the best, but I think he'd give the vet chavez the shot at high lev usage before the rookie biagini.

He did appear to trip on the bullpen mound, yeah.  I'm still amazed there are parks where those are "in play", at least, in foul territory.

Sanchez did appear to be getting squeezed a little bit at times, but he also didn't seem to be quite as on point with his command/control as he has been for much of this year.

I suspect that he's going to give the 8th inning ordinarily to Floyd now.  The question is what you do when Floyd (or Osuna) is unavailable because of prior workload.  If you are flexible and thoughtful, you can use Chavez in a way that takes care of most of those situations and also stretches him out.  Gibbons tends to get caught up in the moment, with the result that pitchers like Leon end up with high leverage work rather than continuing on with a pitcher like Floyd or Chavez. 

Let's hope Happ and the offence give the bullpen a low leverage night.  I was thinking that there ought to be the drinks equivalent of leverage- a mojito (or a single malt if you prefer) for a low leverage outing, a beer for a medium leverage outing, a pop for a high leverage outing and ice water for an ultra-high.  Perhaps it should be the other way round- with maximum alcohol content for the highest stress situation. 

I like where you're going.

Local beer is more my expertise, so I'd go with Mill St. Organic for low lev, Beau's Lug Tread for medium, and a tasty Boneshaker for high lev.

I keep staring at the 2016 Atlanta Braves team batting statistics in horrified fascination. How do you get this far into the season with a team total of seven home runs? Their hitters have more caught stealing (8) than home runs (7), which has to be a first ever. Even worse, two of those seven have been hit by players no longer with the team, and one has been hit by Mallex Smith, whose career high in the minors is 5. If it weren't for Freddie "Four Homers" Freeman, they might not hit a home run the rest of the year.

The Braves are also last in the league in doubles, and haven't hit a triple yet (the only team in baseball that hasn't). And they are 1-15 at home. They drew 17,106 for their last (Sunday) home game, and I'm surprised it was that many.

Everybody has a theory about Martin and Tulo, so here's mine: they're both hard-working, conscientious, intelligent players. Which suggests that they're overthinking out there. Way too much. Though I suppose that Martin is old enough to have reached that unfortunate age where you wake up and suddenly realize that you have become just like the rest of us (and, sadly, like Ryan Goins): you cannot hit major-league pitches.

Headstock can close it out, and Smashbomb Atomic is the zaney, quotable guy you can use anytime (I'm always amused with the Flying Monkeys beer caps). Of course, if we trade for a reliever, then we get to break into the import market.

Damnit. Now I want beer and baseball.

Damnit. Now I want beer and baseball.

Tomorrow's game is at 3:45 and features Stroman vs. Bumgarner.  Environment Canada forecasts a high of 20C with sun.  There must be a patio somewhere where beer and baseball could be had. 

"....Gibbons unfortunately isn't very comfortable giving a better reliever like Chavez or Floyd multiple innings in medium leverage situations....."

The Jays are leading the majors in innings per start.  They don't really need multiple innings from their relievers, except in mop-up situations (which have been rare).  What they really need is a single effective high-leverage inning from each reliever.  They assumed they would get that from Osuna, Storen and Cecil, but two-thirds of those guys have been terrible.  Now they have to get it from Chavez and Floyd instead.  The Jays don't need them for multiple innings -- just the 7th or 8th inning, please.  It's a rare day when the Toronto starter isn't good for at least 6 innings.

Before the season began, most of us were assuming that the Jays would want Chavez or Floyd to be stretched-out as the long men, available to step into the rotation.  Instead the team doesn't need that.  They've got Hutchison available almost any time as the 6th starter, for all the spot starts that might be needed, and the top 5 starters have been (as a whole) very good.  So instead the Jays need to be nimble and adjust the plan.  That's what they are doing now.  Chavez and Floyd are now the set-up guys, rather than multiple-inning guys. They just need to do that one thing.   Why saddle them with a second role as well?
 
Could Gibbons have made the adjustment earlier?  Maybe, but it's clear that Shapiro has invested a lot of payroll in Storen and Cecil and you don't give up on them after they've pitched only 6 or 7 innings in a season.  Those two guys are historically high-leverage guys, and you don't demote them to the lower reaches of the bullpen after a few outings.  Gibbons is demoting them now (unofficially) to lower-leverage situations, and it's still relatively early in the season (9 innings for Cecil, 11 innings for Storen).  To do it any earlier in the season would be almost unfair to guys who have a good track record and who should have been dependable this year (but weren't).

I'm going to tonight's game, I hope I can help jump start the offense, although SF isn't the best offensive park.

The Jays are leading the majors in innings per start.  They don't really need multiple innings from their relievers, except in mop-up situations (which have been rare).  What they really need is a single effective high-leverage inning from each reliever.  They assumed they would get that from Osuna, Storen and Cecil, but two-thirds of those guys have been terrible.  Now they have to get it from Chavez and Floyd instead.  The Jays don't need them for multiple innings -- just the 7th or 8th inning, please.  It's a rare day when the Toronto starter isn't good for at least 6 innings.

Before the season began, most of us were assuming that the Jays would want Chavez or Floyd to be stretched-out as the long men, available to step into the rotation.  Instead the team doesn't need that.  They've got Hutchison available almost any time as the 6th starter, for all the spot starts that might be needed, and the top 5 starters have been (as a whole) very good

Counting on Hutchison as the #6 starter with no other backup plan is tempting fate.  I'm a big believer in Branch Rickey's "luck is the residue of design" credo. 

Unfortunately, I'm in NS, and 14 + no patio TVs makes that an improbability. I might figure something out, though.

Hutchison I see as a high end #6 guy. He threw 150 innings last year and at the start was viewed as potentially the #1 guy in the rotation (obviously didn't work out that way). In his one ML start this year he went 5 2/3 IP which is nice for a spot start.

This years rotation so far...
ERA+: 75 (Dickey), 108 (Stroman), 130 (Hutch), 150's (Happ & Sanchez), 163 Estrada. Hard to complain about those figures outside of Dickey.

IP/Start: 7+ per: Stroman, 6+ per: Sanchez, Happ, Estrada; 5+: Dickey, Hutch
Again only Dickey a big issue.

Through 34 starts the rotation has the equivalent of a full season for a starter. 218 1/3 IP, 187 H 21 HR 72 BB 169 SO 3.26 ERA 14-7 W-L record. Yes, that includes Dickey. Far better than I think any of us dreamed of heading into 2016. Comparable to how Estrada was last year.

The pen though... 3-10 record 3.78 ERA 90 appearances, 83 1/3 IP 87 H 10 HR 27 BB 85 SO. Like Mark Lowe was last year for the Jays but worse control. Also a lot like Casey Janssen's last year here. Not what I'd call a happy situation.

Counting on Hutchison as the #6 starter with no other backup plan is tempting fate.

Fun Hutchison fact: he's never won a game in class-AAA ball. In 11 starts for Buffalo over three years, he's 0-5.

Might be time to start thinking of Hutch in the pen longterm.

All it takes is one injury and suddenly one of Not Fausto, LeBlanc, or Diamond become the 6th starter. Then if/when Sanchez reaches whatever his innings limit is, that drops another SP down.

It might be tempting fate to push Floyd back to a SP workload after a month and a half of 1 inning relief, but Chavez at the least has to be reasonably ready to take over a rotation spot when a need arises. They can't assume the same 5-6 SP's will be healthy all year.

Unfortunately, I'm in NS, and 14 + no patio TVs makes that an improbability. I might figure something out, though.

A story. It was one of those (rare) years when the Leafs were decent and it was playoff time.  My daughter was 12 and in gymnastics; one of the coaches told us in front of the young women at the end of a training session that he had to leave quickly to get a seat at the "sports b...er...Leaf-watching place".  I hope you find a suitable Jay-watching place.

I realized after the fact that I forgot the C, but wasn't going to repost just to clarify it was 14 degrees, and that I wasn't in fact 14 (no matter what my posts may otherwise imply). I'm happily early-middle-aged and only in want of an edit button, a patio heater, a TV/Tablet/phone/something and a supply of hop-based beverages all at once.

I know taste is subjective, so my apologies... but Smashbomb Atomic makes my top 3 list for worst beer I've ever tasted.

There's (almost) never a reason to apologize for taste, and beer is included. I just happen to tend towards very hop-forward beers. I'm a juicy IPA and DIPA lover at heart, even though I also appreciate good stouts, sours and, really, lots of other things when done well. Also the faux aphoristic caps helps make the Biagini comparison work.

I'm going to tonight's game, I hope I can help jump start the offense, although SF isn't the best offensive park.

I'm going to the afternoon game tomorrow with my 9-year-old daughter (taking her out of school for the day), so I'll cover that game :-)

I think Sanchez may have struggled with his control a bit last night due to the weather - it was cold, and it's always damp in SF. I think it must have been pretty windy, as well, since a few high pop-ups to the outfield that are usually pretty routine turned into circus acts (Pillar's mis-read & stumble, Bautista prior to that also had to adjust his route a couple of times).

I'm also guessing that Martin is still hampered by neck soreness. He may have been rushed back since a broomstick with his jersey taped to it would equal Thole's contributions both at and behind the plate. Tulo has been grim at the plate so far this year - striking out on 3 pitches with a runner at third and NOBODY out was ridiculous...didn't even offer at any of the three strikes. A halfway deep fly ball or even a ground ball to the 1st base side might have cashed in another run, but he just stood there. He hasn't been himself defensively, either...not sure what to make of that.

Their hitters have more caught stealing (8) than home runs (7), which has to be a first ever.

Nope.

Obviously, this happened on pretty well every team before the Ruth was mighty and did prevail. But since then? The very first team I thought of was Whitey's Cardinals, and the first of his teams I looked at were the 1985 champs. They hit 87 homers, had 93 men caught stealing, and won 101 games. Could Atlanta win 101 games? Sure, but they might need to play about 300, of course.

Second team I thought of was Chuck Tanner's crazy 1976 team, the one that swiped 341 bases. They were caught just 123 times, which is pretty good. And they hit just 113 homers. And they won 87 games.

Has this strange feat ever been achieved by a Blue Jays team? It has not. The awful 1981 team (Worst Offense Ever!) came closest - they hit just 61 HRs and had 57 guys caught stealing.

Don't write Tulo off. I think Cano's early 2025 struggles are a good comparison to a star player moving to a new team. He finished strong and is starting this season strong.

0-5 in Buffalo doesn't really mean anything. Ks and BBs looks fine.

Hutch can be a decent starter. He's too valuable to move to the pen.

 Through 34 starts the rotation has the equivalent of a full season for a starter. 218 1/3 IP, 187 H 21 HR 72 BB 169 SO 3.26 ERA 14-7 W-L record. Yes, that includes Dickey. Far better than I think any of us dreamed of heading into 2016. Comparable to how Estrada was last year.

The 218 IP is problematic. There's no way they average that in October. Only Dickey has ever approached that workload.

There's a pretty good chance non of them get 34 starts anyway.

Boston really has their bats going lately.

Their hitters have more caught stealing (8) than home runs (7), which has to be a first ever.

Nope.

I picked the wrong dubious achievement to highlight. The remarkable accomplishment of the 2016 Braves is to (so far) hit less than one-third as many home runs as the second-worst home run hitting team. The Braves have 7; the second-worst is the Dodgers with 24.

There might be another team as futile as this, but I can confirm, thanks to Baseball Reference, that this great a difference in tater generation hasn't happened in the 21st century, and hasn't come close to happening.

0-5 in Buffalo doesn't really mean anything. Ks and BBs looks fine.

For sure (though the 4.10 ERA isn't wonderful). I just thought it was interesting that Hutch has zero triple-A wins, given that he has 30 major league wins.

I don't think Cano and Tulo is a similar situation at all. First Cano doesn't have Tulo's injury history. Second Tulo was struggling already in Colorado last season with the exception of one month.

That's true, but Tulo's 2015 struggles was due to his hip surgery. I don't see that holding him back. It's like if Jeter got injured then tanked for half a season and everybody is ready to write him off, only difference is Tulo is better than Jeter.

Boy, that Saunders is a bit of an adventure out there, isn't he?

For sure (though the 4.10 ERA isn't wonderful).

That can vary a lot depending on BABIP, team defense and other factors.
Do you remember the Jays having a better 6th starter just waiting to get a start?

elite pitching and defense, punch and judy offense, just like we expected.

Happ has sure been awesome so far. Very nice game tonight.

Loving the Giants announcers for this series. You get the sense Kuiper and Krukow are out to have a great night, and just happen to be calling a baseball game. A great mix of humor and insight.

Yeah, they're one of my top announcer crews, too. A couple friends sitting around watching a ballgame over a couple metaphoric beers (or food. lots and lots of food), and having fun. They know they're not perfect, they don't try to be, and they don't worry about it.

What sort of bizarro season did we get into here? Dominant rotation, anemic offense, stellar bullpen EXCEPT FOR Brett Cecil and Drew Storen.

meanwhile, we're stuck with Tabler mind boggled that there are boats in the bay - WITH BARBEQUES ON THEM!!!!

have a day, troy. you needed it.

Reviews of this sort of ticky-tack nonsense is just the worst. The absolute worst. Baseball needs to fix this.

The sub-200 guys - Tulowitzki, Martin, Goins -  all got hits today, which is nice to see.  Hopefully they're warming up.

Yeah. Unless Shulman is doing the games, I am finished with Sportsnet broadcasts.

Actually, we're in a good stretch where the opposing announcers are actually good. I quite enjoy the Rays Dewayne Staats (who is fantastic pbp) The Minnesota broadcasters (Bremer and Blyleven) are both quite enjoyable as well.

I'm with you on the Twins, but there's something about Staats' voice that doesn't work for me. Gary Thorne on the Baltimore broadcasts is really good, and the other Kuiper and the Oakland crew is also quality. When NESN fired Orsillo, they really dismantled a great team - I'll have to force myself to listen to a Padres game sometime to see how he's blending in there.

But yeah, Shulman turns a well below average crew into one well above average.

Happ-y Days!

Now we need Ace Stro to shut it down and finally get us over that .500 hump for good.

Happ might prove to be the best value signing of the off-season, while Price might end up being the biggest bullet dodged. Just as we all predicted :)

Happ was really dealing today. For all those concerns about how can people have so many IP when they never have, Happ was super efficient with the pitches today. Even with the failure to get the last out (I would have left him in for at least one more batter, absent injury/mechanics concerns) he only used 111 pitches, 75 of them strikes, and he was sub 100 through 8.

They were going to pinch hit for him if Goins had gotten on in the 8th (burns was in the on deck circle), and the bullpen went from Chavez -> Osuna -> Chavez to no one as the Jays score the 2 runs and knocked out the save opportunity for the 9th (at least until 2 men reached to put the save back on the table).

BTW Happ has a higher OPS than Tulo, Martin, and Goins. :)

The most fun play for me at the game tonight was Saunders ducking to one hop the ball but then throwing out the force play at 2nd. You don't see the FC on the ball hit to the outfield very often.

I can also confirm the temperature was dropping pretty quickly in the last few innings, and there did seem to be as many Jays fans in the stadium as Giants fans. A lot of blue.

I don't remember John Mcdonald ever having a night like this.

Nice to see Happ having a good run now for almost 12 months. He took a lot of slings and arrows over the years and bounced around between roles without complaint.

Gibbons: "All the Tulo haters can suck on that one"

I don't remember John Mcdonald ever having a night like this.

This one is pretty similar: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201008200.shtml

Of the four Jays hitters who have batting averages of less than .200 this year, Tulowitzki has by far the highest OPS.  That's because of his 6 HRs and his above-average 11% BB rate, both of which are very encouraging signs if they continue.  Since his BABIP rate of .197 is still far below his career rate of .318, there is plenty of potential for improvement.  Obviously his historically high K rate of 27.9% will have to decrease, but I think that's likely.  Even with his terrible start, he is still tied for 7th among AL shortstops in fWAR.  (FanGraphs sees him as the fourth-best defensive shortstop in the league.)  I'm not too worried about him.

Blue Jay starters have the lowest ERA in the league, but the fifth best FIP and xFIP (per Fangraphs).  The key is the .265 opposition BABIP, easily the best in the league.  The relievers have had an opposition BABIP of ..325.  Some of that is luck and some is just more hard-hit balls particularly against Storen.

This team seems to be rounding into form. My only complaint at the moment is that I think we need to move Pillar to the bottom of the lineup and install Saunders as the leadoff man. Saunders is clearly the better hitter.  Higher OBP and even SLUG% is great to have in that spot -- especially given the firepower we have that follows. To me it's a no-brainer.

Also, happy to see both Happ and Estrada proving that they are worth the dollars many (but not all) of us predicted they might be.  David who? 

I was on team Price in the offseason, but the conservative FA approach is looking fabulous at the moment - I was totally meh on the Happ deal and the only hope I had was that the Pittsburgh era Happ was the new JA.

What do you guys think - is this a hot streak or a new Happ? He looks sustainable to me, although I missed last night. Can't make those west coast evening games...

I'm much Happier about Happ than I was in his previous Jays excursion. He really looks like the new and improved Happ. Unfortunately last night we had a power outage(not unlike some of the Jays) in the 4th inning and I missed the rest of the game. Hope Stro is dealing today too :)

For me, it's been a bit of both for Happ. He's hitting his spots far more than I remember him ever doing in his first tour with the team. A lefty with quality stuff that hits his spots most of the time has a good chance of succeeding. It was amazing how efficient he was last night - I don't think he had an inning with more than 12 pitches until the 8th. That was unfathomable the last time, unless he only came into the game in the 8th.

So far so good on the Price vs Happ/Estrada/Chavez choice. Price 6.75 ERA, Jays trio: 2.05/2.39/2.45 = 6.89 - those 3 with their ERA's added together are barely higher than Price's ERA at this point. I suspect most of us would've been happy if any one of them had a lower ERA than Price.

Yeah, yeah, FIP shows how that isn't likely to continue to be the case...
Price: 2.95 Jays 3: 3.92/3.33/3.37 - none of our 3 are lower than Price.

Still, fun for now :)

Fun fact on Happ:  he's the first Jays pitcher to open a season with a 5-0 win record since Roger Clemens.

Of course a pitcher's win-loss record is a rather meaningless number.  But it would be nice to see a Jays pitcher reaching 20 wins again.  When is the last time that happened?  (I should know the answer, but it's easier just to ask the intelligent crowd.  Has it happened since Clemens?)

Stroman could have a shot at 20 wins too, if he gets a bit better luck with the bullpen.

The last Blue Jay to win 20 was Roy Halladay in 2008.

I think that a lot of the Jays' pitching success is due to their defense. They have superior gloves at third, short, second, center (Superman!) and catcher. With less skilled defenders out there, the starters would be charged with more hits and then more runs. I'm wondering whether that's Price's problem in Boston.

Defensive Efficiency (percent of balls in play made into outs) is one of my favorite ways to quickly get an idea of the defense of a team. Logically, the higher the percent the better the team defense is.

Jays: .706, 10th in MLB
Boston: .689 16th in MLB
Tampa: .710, 7th in MLB
Baltimore: .689 15th in MLB (almost dead on the ML average)
NYY: .673 26th in MLB

For the full range...
Cubs: .734 #1 in MLB
Milwaukee: .659 #30 in MLB


For 2015 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015.shtml)
Jays #1 in MLB .708
Colorado: #29 in MLB .668, .001 ahead of Philly who was #30. Guess losing Tulo and putting in Reyes hurt them.

Jose Altuve has hit more home runs (9) than Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion this year so far, and only one was really park-aided.  He also leads the league in doubles and has a IsoP north of .300.  I did not expect that.

The most noticable changes in Happ's pitching are that he is working quicker and more efficiently. A lot less of a snoozefest for the fans and the defense.

Thanks, Dave.  I had blanked on Halladay for some reason.

In today's lineup, Saunders is on the bench again, replaced by Carrera.  He has played in only 28 of the team's 36 games this season (if he doesn't play today).  I assume the Jays are being careful with him because of his injury last year.   Fine, but I hope he can play more often as the season goes on, and as the team develops more confidence in his health.  Right now he's the second-best hitter on the team.  It would be nice if he could play as often as Donaldson or Bautista.

I take back everything bad I had to say about Happ.

Osuna is unavailable for today's game, after pitching for 3 consecutive days.  Gibbons won't say, but Gregor Chisholm predicts that Floyd will have the closer job today, while the set-up men will be Chavez, Girodo and Biagini.

If so, that's a heck of a demotion for Storen -- he doesn't even qualify for the set-up role today.  He'll have to work his way back from the bottom of the heap at the end of the bullpen.  But there was no other option.  Gibbons can't just keep throwing him into the late innings if he isn't producing.

elite pitching and defense, punch and judy offense, just like we expected.

It is interesting to see 3 Blue Jays SP in the top 12 in ERA and Stroman coming in at 22nd. Mind you is the BP did a decent job of not letting inherited runners from scoring in Stroman's outings then he'd be right there with the other 3, leaving Dickey alone as the stragler. Would never have guessed pitching has been what's keeping the Blue Jays afloat. Hopefully, the bats start picking up because it's bordering on the ridiculously bad that some have been.

I had blanked on Halladay for some reason.

David Wells, too!

For Stroman's first MLB at bat, he looked pretty darn good. Fouled off a pitch straight back, took a ball then hit one about 375ft to CF. Not bad, kid.

I think that a lot of the Jays' pitching success is due to their defense. They have superior gloves at third, short, second..

Thanks Dave.

weird game so far.

as Beltre would say there's snakes in the infield.

the very good news is that Bum is already at 65 pitches thru 3ip so he won't be able to go deep into this one. Stro just has to shut them down until we get into the pen.

and then a 9 pitch inning. ach.

Tulo giveth, and Tulo taketh away.

Hey, a perfect 7th inning from the bullpen!

Would somebody please fetch the man in white?

Now that is a beautiful thing.

Dickey the pinch hitter? That's an odd thing.

Storen coming in. Buckle up.

Tulo giveth, and Tulo taketh away.

Rarely doth he giveth.

Storen coming in. Buckle up.

Good thing, I was afraid we'd see Gavin Floyd or someone else without a record EV.

Floyd's the closer today; have to save him for a save situation that might never arise, just in case.

To be fair to Gibby, if Storen is going to feel comfortable against anyone, it should be an NL team. He has pitched well against SF in his career.

I think the play is to keep the baseball away from Tulowitzki.

I think that's his sixth error in the last fifteen games.

Dickey the pinch hitter? That's an odd thing.

Odd but weirdly logical. Dickey and Happ lead team with 27 career sac bunts. Bautista is next with 23.

Good job by Storen to escape that jam.

Agreed Magpie on the Dickey move.

Time for Saunders to pull a Smoak special.  Homer in ninth to tie it. Homer in extras to win it.

Another poor performance by Storen (that last ball could have easily been a hit, in addition to the other hit and the HBP) but it worked out. It would have been easier if Tulo had made that easy play of course. To the 11th.

Tulo isn't winning many popularity contests with his play. I have to think it is something mental and the struggles are getting to him.

Storen is only comfortable when the bases are loaded.

Odd but weirdly logical. Dickey and Happ lead team with 27 career sac bunts. Bautista is next with 23.

In extras in a day game after a night game, I thought the logical move was to hit Thole and let him replace Martin behind the plate.

Thanks for the visual, eudaimon. I was going off of gameday - I couldn't actually see just how poor Storen was pitching last inning. I just assumed he did a good job of escaping a sticky jam that was only partly of his own making. Getting Belt to strike out with the bases loaded and one out seemed pretty nifty from my online perspective.

I don't know if there's such a thing as a lousy strikeout.

They may walk Edwin too, to face Tulowitzki in the 11th with two out and load the bases.

Chance for redemption here for Tulo if EE walks.

Happ, Estrada, Chavez and Floyd were pretty fine pitching acquisitions by the front office last off-season. As a group, they've provided excellent performance at relatively low cost and limited contractual risk. Storen has obviously been very poor, but he may yet turn it around.

This might be one of Tulo's all-time worst games in the majors.

Tepera has now been in 3 games and he's bad every time.

Tepera has now been in 3 games and he's bad every time.

Huh! Who'dathunkit. Who'd have ever thought that if you trade your minor league pitching staff for someone else's salary dump and a few weeks of rental pitching that it might come back to bite you.

The key play in the game, to my mind, was the replay review in the top of the 13th.  The SF announcers thought that Goins was safe at second, and he looked that way to me too.  That meant a run and possibly more.  It sure would have been nice for Jose Bautista to be batting with runners on first and third, one out and the Jays up by a run.  The results in particular one-run games are mostly, but not entirely, a function of luck.  I put this one in the "mostly luck" category.

There were many pluses in this loss- the comeback from 3 runs down after 7 innings, Saunders' excellent at-bat that led to the home run, Chavez being stretched out a bit, Floyd pitching well again.  They'll just have to get them on Friday. 

To my mind, there were positives and negatives in today's game. In the end, the Jays had opportunities to win but couldn't get it done. That's baseball. You turn the page and move on. The team had a number of crushing losses during the first 100 or so games last year and still ended up having a successful year.

Ryan Tepera down.  Brett Cecil presumably rejoins the team. 

Man you Tulo bashers are nuts. Dude owns the highest fielding percentage for a SS in THE HISTORY of baseball. Better than Ripken, better than Jeter, better than all the greats.

I've seen Halladay struggle badly (post Mel Queen redo), I've seen many great players go through slumps and what not. Tulo has a better and longer track record than Bautista, Edwin, Donaldson...really any other player on this team.

The Blue Jays will lose over 70 games this year, Tulo will get out in something like 280 of his remaining 450 at bats, and you know what? He will still be a player on a hall of fame track. At the end of the year, just like pretty much every other hall of famer whose numbers declined slightly as they aged. And the Jays will be around 90 wins.

This is why TORONTO can't have good things. Because Tulo needs to hit 280 and not make 5 errors in 40 odd games or so. I love this site but man you guys suck sometimes, have some perspective.

I get that there are some posters on this site who (occasionally or frequently) make snide and gratuitous comments about Tulo and other players, but I don't see why legitimate inquiries can't be raised about Tulo's performance without those inquiries amounting to "bashing" and "hating." After a string of 5 WAR seasons, Tulo declined to 2.3 WAR last year and in 2016 he's sitting at approximately 0 WAR as we approach the quarter-pole of the season. In my view, it's fair to wonder what's going on with him (Dave Cameron on Fangraphs has commented on Tulo's apparent decline a few times as well, and he has no vested interest in this issue one way or the other).

Just because Tulo has had a stellar career to date is no guarantee that he will continue to be a great or good player going forward. There have been plenty of players who have declined precipitously in their 30s because of injuries or other factors. It's the nature of the game.

Just because the guy was on a HOF track in Colorado does not mean that he is the same guy here. In 2011 Roy Halladay had the best season of his career, posting a 8.3 WAR. Less than two years later he was done. Decline in many cases does not come softly, in some it comes very sharp. We can only hope Tulo doesn't end up like that, but given his injury history its not impossible.

And yeah he kinda does need to put up good numbers. Because the Jays are paying him 20 million a year this year and for 4 years after this. I don't think anyone wants to spend 20/year for the PMOD right? So he needs to hit.

I don't see why legitimate inquiries can't be raised about Tulo's performance without those inquiries amounting to "bashing" and "hating."

Agreed greenfrog. Although I am sympathetic to the complaint about negativity. There are one or two posters who are relentlessly negative on this site which does get tiresome. Sometimes I wonder if they realize that if they posted  occasional positive or even neutral comments that it would give them more credibility.

Well I admit to not loving the trade in the first place as I felt it was another case of paying for previous performance with future capital. But I'd have been fine if he would have produced since being here, but he's not so far. Doesn't mean he won't in the future. As for positivity, I'm happy with how Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Stroman, Saunders, Pillar and Osuna are doing so far this season. Think we did quite well picking up Floyd and Chavez. I don't see much else to be happy about right now.

Well, and since the relentless snide negativity is what sticks in the minds of those with differing views, it inadvertently personifies (well, basically hijacks) the more pessimistic perspective. Needless extremes tend to lead to shouting matches, not discourse.

Well said.

"I get that there are some posters on this site who (occasionally or frequently) make snide and gratuitous comments about Tulo and other players, but I don't see why legitimate inquiries can't be raised about Tulo's performance without those inquiries amounting to "bashing" and "hating." After a string of 5 WAR seasons, Tulo declined to 2.3 WAR last year and in 2016 he's sitting at approximately 0 WAR as we approach the quarter-pole of the season. In my view, it's fair to wonder what's going on with him (Dave Cameron on Fangraphs has commented on Tulo's apparent decline a few times as well, and he has no vested interest in this issue one way or the other).

Just because Tulo has had a stellar career to date is no guarantee that he will continue to be a great or good player going forward. There have been plenty of players who have declined precipitously in their 30s because of injuries or other factors. It's the nature of the game."

Very well put. Tulo's numbers are legitimately worrisome. This is not Mike Trout in a slump, this is an extremely fragile player over 30 who has not looked the same since major surgery 2 years ago. His half season in Colorado before the trade was his worst performance with the Rockies since 2008. On top of that, we're talking now about 350 PAs with Toronto where he has been poor which is not a small sample size. I haven't given up on him rebounding, but there is also a legitimate chance that he's just done as any sort of impact player. It happens.

Dang! Syndergaard hit two home runs with 4 RBI's and pitched the win. Is there anything the dude can't do ?

I was / am a fan of the Reyes for Tulo trade. And remember Reyes wasn't very good on the field or in the offseason. I hope Tulo will bounce back, but I'm concerned. His at bats don't look very good to my uninformed eye, and his defensive mis-steps haven't been great.

I'm also looking forward to Travis coming back because I haven't been that impressed with Barney in the field either (although Barney at bat has been good). I feel like he's missed some playable grounders and also his pivot on the double play hasn't been that good. I know he won a gold glove in the past, without the fame and batting stats that often goes with them, so he's probably pretty good defensively in theory, but doesn't seem to have been so far.

Tulo had a 104 wRC+ with the Rockies prior to the trade (around average offensively), and it's done nothing but dip since then. Given his age and injury history, it's certainly fair to worry about where his performance is heading, not only in 2016, but also through 2020 when he's making $20M a year each season. As Kasi mentioned, decline isn't always gradual. It could be gradual. It could also be sudden. It could be injury related as well. What a player did in his prime carries less and less weight the older he gets.

I was indifferent about the trade at the time. I hated doubling down on the 2013 model of team building (trading prospects for expensive vets), but figured if Tulo had a few more good seasons in him that he might be able to recoup the value of the deal by the end of it. Much like my opinion of Martin (who I also thought could recoup his value by the end of his contract at the time), if their declines have already begun, then we might be heading into Vernon Wells territory. Too early to make that call, and I'm certainly not saying their careers are over by any means (they could easily bounce back and end up having decent/good seasons), but those two in particular scare me right now.

It has nothing to do with "negativity". I'd rather be talking about how Tulo looks like his prime Rockies days rather than debating about whether his decline has started. Trust me.

I think there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Tulo. He's batting .172 on May 10th; that's the second-worst rate among qualified hitters. He's spent most of his career in hitter-friendly Colorado, and he is on the wrong side of 30. Players usually don't suddenly lose it at this stage of their career, but it has happened.

The sad part is, in the Jays' lineup, Tulo is not alone. The worst batting average among qualified hitters belongs to Ryan Goins, and Jose is 14th at .208. Russell Martin would be tied with Goins at .160 if he had enough at-bats. That would be four among the worst 15. 2015 seems like a long time ago now.

I must admit one of the attractions for me of baseball is it's unpredictability. Despite a boatload of data, mountains of new stats, and a plethora of analysts, it's still difficult to predict performance at a team level much less at an individual player's.

Doubt there's anyone who'd have predicted at the quarter that (a) the Jays would have the best starting pitching in the league and (b) still revert to being a .500 team.

In terms of Tulo, of course fans can criticize a $20mm player playing at replacement level. It's part of the game regardless of what Gibbons says. Doesn't mean we don't like him- which actually I do- or hope he'll turn it around quickly and prove us wrong. My hope is his leg kick experiment in spring training mucked up his mechanics, and he's taking a while - well a long while- to get his timing back. But frankly no one knows, including Tulo.

One thing the Jays could try is resting him more. Fewer games for Tulo might increase his productivity and add to his longevity. This will be easier to do once Travis is back.

Here's a puzzle.  The Blue Jays as a team have a BABIP of .286 this year as compared with .298 last year.  What is the culprit?  They've hit more line drives, fewer pop-ups , had more hard-hit balls and fewer softly-hit balls.   They have hit more balls on the ground than last year (BABIP for the league is much, much higher for ground balls vs. fly-balls).  Maybe it's a function of a decline in team power, with the result that the opposition outfielders are playing further in and fewer fly balls are dropping.

I have a theory about the team's offensive difficulties.  It seems to me that in the age of Questec, the pitch at the armpit on the inside corner (or slightly up or slighly inside) is much more likely to be called a strike than it was 15 years ago or even 5 years ago.  This has been a progressive thing and I've noticed it more this year. Conversely, the pitch just below the zone is called a strike less and less.  This club does uppercut a lot; the pitch up and in is particularly difficult for them.  They have had a tendency to lay off them but more are being called strikes.  Donaldson seems to have adapted, but Tulo and Bautista have had difficulties.  Goins had difficulty with that early in the year, but seems to be making an adaptation. The classic up and in, down and away pitching approach (rather than pounding the zone low) is making a comeback. Fangraphs had a nice description of changes in Kris Bryant's swing which fit with this theory.  He's levelled it off.  I see it also in Donaldson's swing.  I am looking forward to the return of Travis and Pompey because both should be able to thrive in this environment.

All good points beauxites. Except Tulo being injury prone...he hasn't been any more injured, seriously, then Bautista and Edwin and he had the disadvantage of playing in Coors where you're more susceptible to injury and running out of gas because of the thin air, or so I've read.

Tulo has not looked good with the bat. When I see him take a pitch down Broadway twice in a row I shake my head, but the guy is 31, has the track record, is getting his book on AL pitchers for the first time, adjusting to playing in a new country...I just don't see a sudden decline being more likely than a really really slow start. As I mentioned earlier, I see similarities to Robinson Cano last year.

One more thing, Tulo led the league in WAR in 2014 before his injury, and that sample was after he had hip surgery. So he's still got it in him. It's either a slow start or he stopped taking a steroid he was taking before. Sudden decline like this has never happened. And also, the Jays in general have faced some ridiculously talented pitching through their first 40 or so games. Smyly, Odorizzi, Archer, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Maeda, Price, Tanaka, Miller, Uehara, Kimbrel, Britton, Betances, Sale, Quintana (has he made the leap?)

It's been a tough stretch. If Tulo goes through the struggles through August after getting a chance to adjust then I'll concede he's either done or very very diminished offensively. If he is done offensively, he's still worth more than Edwin after you factor the glove.

The Blue Jays as a team have a BABIP of .286 this year as compared with .298 last year. What is the culprit?

They don't have Colabello's freakishly lucky .411 BABIP in the lineup this year. That's got to account for some of the difference right there.

I'm wondering whether there is some park or weather factor we're not considering. The offense is unexpectedly down, and the starting pitching is unexpectedly up. Has MLB given the Jays some deader baseballs? Or is it just harder to hit well when it is cold outside, even if you're in a dome?

To follow up on my comment about team BABIP, Jose Bautista is probably the clearest example.  His line-drive rate at 21% is way up this year.  He's hitting more balls hard than ever and yet his BABIP sits at .220.  Obviously, he's lost a step and so the fact that he has no infield hits yet this year is not an entirely a surprise, but the rest?  Bad luck?  Would it be mean to call it the curse of Colabello?

I had not seen Dave's comment when I posted mine. 

Weather was something that I thought of, but offence is actually slightly up throughout MLB over 2015.

"As for positivity, I'm happy with how Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Stroman, Saunders, Pillar and Osuna are doing so far this season. Think we did quite well picking up Floyd and Chavez. I don't see much else to be happy about right now."

The one positive that people keep failing to mention is Justin Smoak. 145 wRC+ on the season and even better since Cola was suspended.

I'll add Gibby into that group as well. Smoak and Saunders have been the teams best offensive players the past while and Gibby gave him all of one PA in San Fran.

"The Blue Jays as a team have a BABIP of .286 this year as compared with .298 last year. What is the culprit? "

https://www.random.org/dice/

Interestingly, ESPN's Relative Power Index (i.e. record + Strength of Schedule) has us as the 8th best team in baseball so far this year, thanks to having the 3rd toughest SoS in mlb so far this year.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

of course, our schedule doesn't get any weaker over the forseeable future. Minny is the only weak opponent on the schedule over the next month and a half.

Pitcher WAR = avg of fipwar/ra9war per 32 starts or 65ip for RP
Hitter WAR = avg of fwar/bwar per 650pa


The Good

3B Donaldson 161pa, 13.7bb%/20.5k%, .316bip/.285avg, .277iso, 165wrc+, 7.9war
CF Pillar 147pa, 2.7bb%/14.3k%, .313bip/.275avg, .138iso, 101wrc+, 6.6war
SP Happ 7gs, 6.9ip/gs, 15.7k%/6.8bb%, 43.7gb%, 51era-, 95fip-, 107xfip-, 6.2war
SP Estrada 6gs, 6.3ip/gs, 23.7k%/9.2bb%, 42.6gb%, 59era-, 80fip-, 108xfip-, 5.6war
LF Saunders 121pa, 10.7bb%/28.1k%, .420bip/.315avg, .241iso, 163wrc+, 5.4war
SP Sanchez 7gs, 6.5ip/gs, 20.9k%/9.1bb%, 59.2gb%, 64era-, 82fip-, 86xfip-, 5.3war
SP Stroman 8gs, 7.0ip/gs, 18.2k%/6.7bb%, 62.3gb%, 87era-, 82fip-, 88xfip-, 4.0war
1B Smoak 79pa, 17.7bb%/31.6k%, .459bip/.297avg, .125iso, 145wrc+, 3.3war
RP Floyd 13gms, 16.1ip, 29.5k%/6.6bb%, 45.9gb%, 41era-, 67fip-, 86xfip-, 2.2war
RP Osuna 16gms, 15.1ip, 30.0k%/6.7bb%, 34.2gb%, 44era-, 57fip-, 77xfip-, 1.9war
RP Chavez 13gms, 13.0ip, 29.1k%/9.1bb%, 47.1gb%, 51era-, 91fip-, 79xfip-, 1.0war
RP Biagini 8gms, 10.0ip, 20.0k%/13.3bb%, 60.0gb%, 22era-, 74fip-, 99xfip-, 0.7war
(IF Barney 48pa, 4.2bb%/18.8k%, .400bip/.333avg, .089iso, 126wrc+, 6.1war)
(OF Carrera 45pa, 6.7bb%/22.2k%, .419bip/.333avg, .119iso, 134wrc+, 2.2war)
(RP Girodo 5gms, 4.2ip, 22.2k%/0.0bb%, 61.5gb%, 48era-, 117fip-, 65xfip-, 0.7war)
(IF Burns 2pa, 0.0bb%/50.0k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, 132wrc+, 0.0war)


The Bad

RF Bautista 157pa, 19.1bb%/19.1k%, .220bip/.208avg, .224iso, 122wrc+, 1.5war
SS Tulowitzki 142pa, 11.3bb%/27.5k%, .190bip/.172avg, .164iso, 67wrc+, 0.9war
DH En'cion 153pa, 8.5bb%/22.2k%, .280bip/.245avg, .187iso, 103wrc+, 0.4war
SP Dickey 7gs, 5.7ip/gs, 16.0k%/8.6bb%, 46.6gb%, 128era-, 108fip-, 109xfip-, -0.2war
(C Thole 34pa, 5.9bb%/29.4k%, .190bip/.156avg, .094iso, 20wrc+, 0.0war)
(SP Hutch: 1gs, 5.2ip/gs, 22.7k%/13.6bb%, 42.9gb%, 79era-, 184fip-, 113xfip-, 0.0war)
(RP Morales 2gms, 0.2ip, 0.0k%/0.0bb%, 0.0gb%, 0era-, 77fip-, 139xfip-, 0.0war)


The Ugly

RP Cecil 15gms, 9.2ip, 18.4k%/6.1bb%, 40.0gb%, 138era-, 92fip-, 109xfip-, -0.3war
RP Storen 15gms, 12.0ip, 19.0k%/5.2bb%, 47.6gb%, 204era-, 134fip-, 94xfip-, -2.2war
2B Goins 106pa, 4.7bb%/21.7k%, .197bip/.160avg, .070iso, 14wrc+, -2.8war
C Martin 104pa, 5.8bb%/37.5k%, .263bip/.160avg, .011iso, 5wrc+, -4.4war
(RP Venditte 5gms, 3.2ip, 9.5k%/19.1bb%, 42.9gb%, 193era-, 155fip-, 202xfip-, -1.8war)
(RP Tepera 3gms, 2.1ip, 5.9k%/17.7bb%, 54.5gb%, 286era-, 180fip-, 217xfip-, -4.2war)
(RP Leon 2gms, 2.1ip, 18.2k%/9.1bb%, 50.0gb%, 202era-, 212fip-, 119xfip-, -5.6war)
(UT Dominguez 8pa, 12.5bb%/37.5k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, -67wrc+, -8.1war)
(UT Colabello 32pa, 6.3bb%/28.1k%, .100bip/.069avg, .000iso, -41wrc+, -9.1war)

Yeah I forgot about Smoak. Good catch there.

As for the Jays versus last year, babip is yeah luck, especially this far into the year. Also last year the Jays were very lucky with runners in scoring position. .269 avg overall, but .281 with runners in scoring. That luck was very likely to regress and it has. Isn't helped of course by the many black holes in the lineup right now.

Looking at ugly's list.... really makes Bautista and Encarnacion's salary demands/market value look a bit scary. Good thing money grows on trees in MLB, at least someone elses trees.

There are one or two posters who are relentlessly negative on this site which does get tiresome. Sometimes I wonder if they realize that if they posted occasional positive or even neutral comments...

My positive or neutral comment would be that it looks to me that the Blue Jays organization may have turned an important corner in the past year by hiring Mark Shapiro. It's been more than 20 years since I've thought the team was in hands this good.

Those who complain about 'negativity' are perhaps too young to remember the late 90's Ash years, when internet baseball sites like fastball and dtfc were replete with comments far more cutting, far more critical and far more 'negative' than anything seen now. The website fireash.com was put up by one blue jays fan, with the support of many. It garnered recognition in the press and from Gammons (who said it was going too far). Ash was pilloried long before the White Sox trade, his last. The Garcia acquisition was the one that irritated me the most, but the Garcia acquisition, for which we lambasted Ash online ruthlessly, was nowhere near as bad to my mind as the Tulowitzki deal with its cost in salary and players, or for that matter the organizational debacle at last year's trade deadline. Others may see it differently.

Paul Beeston left to head up MLB in 1997, leaving Sam Pollock (!) in charge of the organization. Ash reported to Pollock, and then to Godfrey from 2000 on. Pollock and Godfrey shared a similar baseball background, which was none at all, and of course Godfrey eventually replaced Ash with Ricciardi, which was the leap from the frying pan to the fire.

Moreover, the late 90's saw the team owned by Interbrew, which had no interest whatsoever in owning a baseball team and tried for years to sell it, with some discussion that it may be moved or contracted. The front office was not even given slot money for draft picks.

I'm not as sanguine about Mark Shapiro as SK, perhaps because I'm not that familiar. But the guy seems to me to represent the grown-ups coming home after having gone out sometime in the mid-90's. That's not to say that Anthopoulos was as bad a GM as Ricciardi, or Ash. But Anthopoulos, like the other two, was without any governance on baseball moves and while some of them (or at least the Donaldson and Wells trades) were excellent, and some like the Miami trade were completely understandable, some of them were very bad and will have longterm detrimental effects on the team.

At some point at the end of 2016, Shapiro is going to have to go to Rogers and tell them that the $176 millions USD in contracts that they took on for two players in 2015, are basically junk bonds. Some may disagree. I think that will have to be dealt with in some fashion. The FO is also going to have to replace Bautista and Encarnacion in the lineup, though this year that is not looking like it will be as difficult a task as it appeared before. The FO has done a good job resisting the pressure to cave into Bautista and Encarnacion's demands, and seems to have an eye on the long game. The farm system is going to need rebuilding and I see no reason to believe that won't be done intelligently.

I would say that I'm more optimistic about the long term future of the organization than at any time since 1994. Rogers is not some spendthrift egomaniac whom Toronto fans think should own the team, and would no doubt despise if that ever happened, but they're very far from Interbrew. To this point, the new leadership impresses me considerably. The short term though, is going to have lots of challenges.

I'll leave the last word to John Gibbons, whose witticisms may be missed next year.

I imagine relentlessly positive posters are every bit as annoying as relentlessly negative posters.

And I'd have to say that the balance of posts this year so far, based on the team's performance, should skew negative.

Totally agree with CBDC and uglyone's last posts. I forgot to add that I'm happy with Shapiro. But I imagine the biggest disagreements here are going to be split by positivity/negativity and by how happy they are with the change in management. Interestingly enough you can find people here on all sides of that argument, and that is what generates the most disagreement.

Isn't that $176M 'junk bond' figure a little inflated? I mean, the team got quite a bit out of Martin last year (3.5 fWAR), and Tulo's salary was dramatically offset by dumping Reyes (and he has provided 1.4 fWAR in 75 games even with his underperforming bat). I mean, the deals don't look like particularly great value at the moment, but they're not Ryan Howard anchor tied to the neck and thrown overboard contracts... or at least can't be declared so a month into the season (again, in spite of his diminished offensive performance, Tulowitzki had value last year).

As for the whole negativity thing, people can generally say whatever they want (within reason), from whatever perspective they want (negative or positive), but if they're being dismissive and snide, other people can react and call them on it, too.

So looks like the Jays were the sacrificial lamb for a rule that no longer exists:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-already-backing-off-new-slide-rule/

If the Jays were the sacrificial lamb, what does that make Colby Rasmus?

Isn't that $176M 'junk bond' figure a little inflated? I mean, the team got quite a bit out of Martin last year (3.5 fWAR), and Tulo's salary was dramatically offset by dumping Reyes (and he has provided 1.4 fWAR in 75 games even with his underperforming bat).

Both points true. Off-setting Reyes' contract is required and the team did get value out of Martin last year. The premise though is still correct I think. When the FO sold ownership on Martin and Tulo, I doubt that trying to get out of their contracts after 2 years was in the discussion, nor do I think it will be at all easy.

In response to ComebyDeanChance's thoughtful posting:

- Gord Ash was about as good a GM as it was possible to be when you're a person who doesn't have a baseball background (he started as a ticket seller) and had only Interbrew's meager resources to back him. That wasn't good enough, of course, but it wasn't his fault - he can only do what he is capable of doing. He can be blamed for being a bit too credulous and Canadian - another GM would have kicked the tires more thoroughly before accepting Sirotka for David Wells (which is what cost him his job).

- In retrospect, I'd have to say that Ricciardi did a lot of damage to the organization. He fired scouts and did a poor job of drafting - when he was let go, the Jays had an aging, losing team with one tradeable asset (Roy Halladay) and one farm system prospect of any note (Travis Snider).

- Anthopoulos's strength and weakness were the same: he was not afraid to dream big. Why not trade zillions of players to Miami? Why not trade for R.A. Dickey, or Josh Donaldson, or Troy Tulowitzki, or David Price? It will cost the team over the next two or three years, but the Jays did make it to the post-season and did have the most exciting season since 1993. (For those of you too young to remember 1992-93 - it was a lot like 2015.) If Cecil hadn't gotten hurt, and the Royals hadn't gotten some extremely generous strike calls in the final game of the ALCS, the Jays would have gotten to the World Series. As it is, we got some baseball memories that will last as long as we do - I, for one, will always remember where I was when Joey Bats did his now-famous bat flip. That's better than a whole lot of cost-effective 83-79 seasons.

- The Martin and Tulowitzki contracts won't be total washouts as long as they continue to play good defense. At least they're doing something. (Though they will have to hit at least a little bit better - the Jays can't afford one Ryan Goins in the lineup, let alone three.) The Jays signed Martin not only for his baseball skills, but because he is both Canadian and a Quebecker. What they lose in baseball value they gain in marketing. As for Tulowitzki - I'm reasonably sure that the Jays are grateful that Jose Reyes is currently not on the team.

- The Jays are one of the few teams that are actually owned by a corporation, as opposed to being owned by some rich person who sees baseball as a sideline or an opportunity for conspicuous consumption, like polo ponies or an expensive summer home in the Hamptons. For better or worse, this means that they won't be spending large amounts of money on expensive free agents - their investors and shareholders won't let them. They will focus on marketing, and on making a day at the ballpark enjoyable for casual fans, because that's where the money is.

- I think that Shapiro has done about as good a job as can be hoped. He seems to know what he is doing. However, other teams have owners that are just as smart and are willing to spend more money. It will be hard to win pennants when you're at a financial disadvantage. This is another reason why I am grateful for 2015 - we may never get to see anything like it again.

No sign that the Jays are going to back down investment in salary back to JPR era levels. I would think they're going to remain in the 130-140 million dollar range. Which won't make us the Yankees or Red Sox still leaves us on par with Baltimore and miles ahead of Tampa.

One final thought: the Tulowitzki contract will cost the Jays $94 million, but dumping Vernon Wells on the Angels saved the Jays a bit over $89 million. That's almost a wash!

Ryan Tepera down.  Brett Cecil presumably rejoins the team.

I hate to say it, but.. As soon as I saw Tepera coming into the game, I was 95% sure it was over. Heck, I didn't know if we had a reliever left or not. I was hoping they'd let Floyd go another inning - he'd only thrown 21 pitches..

What a long day - we got there early (it just worked out better that way due to logistics), but no autograph signing or batting practice.. So we waited almost 2 hours before the game even started. A very nice ballpark, though..

- The Martin and Tulowitzki contracts won't be total washouts as long as they continue to play good defense. At least they're doing something. (Though they will have to hit at least a little bit better - the Jays can't afford one Ryan Goins in the lineup, let alone three.) The Jays signed Martin not only for his baseball skills, but because he is both Canadian and a Quebecker. What they lose in baseball value they gain in marketing. As for Tulowitzki - I'm reasonably sure that the Jays are grateful that Jose Reyes is currently not on the team.

- The Jays are one of the few teams that are actually owned by a corporation, as opposed to being owned by some rich person who sees baseball as a sideline or an opportunity for conspicuous consumption, like polo ponies or an expensive summer home in the Hamptons. For better or worse, this means that they won't be spending large amounts of money on expensive free agents - their investors and shareholders won't let them. They will focus on marketing, and on making a day at the ballpark enjoyable for casual fans, because that's where the money is.

- I think that Shapiro has done about as good a job as can be hoped. He seems to know what he is doing. However, other teams have owners that are just as smart and are willing to spend more money. It will be hard to win pennants when you're at a financial disadvantage. This is another reason why I am grateful for 2015 - we may never get to see anything like it again.


Right.  The relevant worst-case scenario for Tulowitzki is not Vernon Wells, but Nomar Garciaparra who does make Tulowitzki's age 30 BBRef comp list.   Most of the list did pretty well after age 30.  As for Martin, the averages are definitely against him.  Most catchers (OK, at least half) with as much mileage on them as Martin do fade considerably in their mid 30s.  Many though do not.  A.J. Pierzynski is the current catcher on Martin's comp list who did not fade. 

There is no reason for the Blue Jays to be at a financial disadvantage in the medium-term given the size of the broadcast market.  What financial advantage do the Red Sox have on the Blue Jays?  The cultural history may lead to more loyalty in thin times, but there is no reason that the Jays cannot top them in both attendance and broadcast revenues.

"However, other teams have owners that are just as smart and are willing to spend more money. It will be hard to win pennants when you're at a financial disadvantage. This is another reason why I am grateful for 2015 - we may never get to see anything like it again."

Well over three quarters of MLB teams made the playoffs during AA's reign, many of whom had lower salaries. So I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the future yet.

I suspect the bigger issue than payroll budget is the reluctance of American free agents to come to Canada. It's a diificult thing as a fan to prove, but as I think back on the FA signings since AA started, all the "major" ones were either Canadians or had previously played on the team. It may be a coincidence but it does make you wonder.

AA alluded to that himself in the recent SN article. He talked about starting the discussions with Happ and Estrada early saying “A big part of our evaluations was who’s going to come here,”

So yeah Shapiro, build that farm system.

I suspect the bigger issue than payroll budget is the reluctance of American free agents to come to Canada. It's a diificult thing as a fan to prove, but as I think back on the FA signings since AA started, all the "major" ones were either Canadians or had previously played on the team. It may be a coincidence but it does make you wonder.

The last major American free agents who hadn't played here previously were....I guess that offseason when they signed Burnett, Ryan, and Bengie Molina. That was a long time ago.

Mind you, the Jays haven't had much trouble extending players that are already here.

I agree with the fan graph comments about Tulo that many of his stuggles suggest vision issues. I hope the team is trying to test that and see if something can be done to help that.

On the subject of American Free Agents, a recent comment (courtesy HoopsRumors) by NBA player Jared Dudley seems to encapsulate the prevailing attitude among most.


"Dudley also addressed the Raptors, saying Toronto is a great city and that players love playing there but lamenting the high taxes,"

broadcast market. What financial advantage do the Red Sox have on the Blue Jays? The cultural history may lead to more loyalty in thin times, but there is no reason that the Jays cannot top them in both attendance and broadcast revenues.

I raw numbers of attendance, I agree, but in terms of revenue/attendee? There the Red Sox seem to have a tremendous advantage. In my experience seats in Fenway versus the Dome, in roughly the same location, can be twice or thrice the price. Throw in more expensive concessions, more expenditures on team gear? I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays need to pull in full houses to take in as much as a mid-week game in Fenway.

Shapiro still has to prove that he can execute his plan properly, but his plan itself is what this team needed badly after AA's 2013-15 trade activity. So yes, I'm optimistic about that. Whether he succeeds in implementing it remains to be seen, but so far he's handled things the way I was hoping he would. My stance hasn't changed on this core. It's old with a one year window and a bottom-10 farm system. It is what it is.

Agreed on the Sox financial might, but Fenway has a capacity of 37,400 for baseball, the Dome is just over 49,000. The still beat us in total last year, but we are ahead this year. If the Jays rattle off a run of excellence, that's a lot of extra tickets in the summer.

The mid-week price for a Red Sox game in the second level in the infield is $75 US; it would be $70-$80C at the RC.   For a weekend game, like the Jays on June 4, the price is $118 US; the price for the same seats in the RC like a weekend game against the Red Sox is $103C.  The Red Sox undoubtedly get more $/bum in seat, but I doubt that it is quite at that level.  When you factor in the Blue Jays far larger TV/internet market, I don't see the Red Sox as having any structural advantage. 

Of course, for sold out games, you often buy at a higher price from a ticket reseller. 

taxes for players in toronto really aren't much different than those in many american cities.

"Shapiro still has to prove that he can execute his plan properly, but his plan itself is what this team needed badly after AA's 2013-15 trade activity. So yes, I'm optimistic about that. Whether he succeeds in implementing it remains to be seen, but so far he's handled things the way I was hoping he would. My stance hasn't changed on this core. It's old with a one year window and a bottom-10 farm system. It is what it is."

nothing shapiro has done has helped our future ability to win, in any way.

He's maintained payroll flexibility for our inevitable run at Harper. Yeah, that's it.

But seriously, helping the future can be about being more efficient with current resources, giving yourself more options down the road. He's hung on to his prospect capitol to develop further (whether to trade or play), and filled gaps with shorter term commitments which seem to be doing well. Oh, and he's starting Sanchez and keeping Hutchison as depth. He's giving himself future options while not taking away from the current team. Of course, it remains to be seen how this works out since only time will tell what he does with the flexibility he's retained.

Yeah he hasn't committed the team to any foolish long term contracts to players over 30 or traded away more of our young prospects. That's a big plus in my books. He also by going for depth in the starting pitching allowed flexibility in how they can develop Sanchez, Hutch and Osuna since they have other players who can step in short term.

He's hung on to his prospect capitol

So that was the importance of the PDC with Lansing.  I had no idea.  Now is the time to make a move on Albany...

"Yeah he hasn't committed the team to any foolish long term contracts to players over 30 or traded away more of our young prospects. That's a big plus in my books. He also by going for depth in the starting pitching allowed flexibility in how they can develop Sanchez, Hutch and Osuna since they have other players who can step in short term."

heh.

yeah he's saving all that money for the next 5yrs of rebuilding when we won't need any money.

and blocking kids with vets is also good for development at the same time.

nothing shapiro has done has helped our future ability to win, in any way.

If this was supposed to be an example of one those pointlessly negative posts here that erode a poster's credibility that was mentioned earlier, then Mission: Accomplished.

Since you average about a hundred posts a day, I don't think you need to worry at this point about whether Batter's Box at large is aware of your irrational hatred for Mark Shapiro. You look like a fool when you post stuff like this.

I'd say something about the pot and the kettle but it ain't my fight... thank god!

Don't worry uo there is plenty of vets around to block youth development. While I'm sure we'll be happy with Donaldson doing that I'm not so sure fans are going to be happy for the multiple years of Martin and Tulo that are due after this season. But we've all seen I think how well going in on old players is working for this team right now.

Maybe he'll take that money and invest it in players on the right side of thirty, perhaps by wrapping up Stroman, Pillar, Sanchez or Osuna in a deal that takes them into year 2-3 of FA. (eg: around their age 30 year, look at Chris Archer's contract for example) Now sure if the Jays went into full rebuild and dropped payroll under 100 million sure that would be one thing, but so far there is no sign of it. Just need to spread out the money a bit more rather than dumping it into several high cost high risk contracts to old players.

Calling us a bottom ten farm system is a lot like saying we were a top ten payroll last year (we were tenth). We are a lot closer to the middle tier of farm teams than to the likes of the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Tigers or the wasteland of the LA Angels.

The Angels are a class on to themselves, but we're very clearly bottom ten, and most rankings have us not at 20ish but mid 20s. So that is by all definitions bottom ten. (but yes Angels is basically one or two standard deviations past the next worst)

So that was the importance of the PDC with Lansing.

Ugh. Self-groan. I'm not sure how 'capitol' slipped past my fingers on that one. But, hey, I hear Albany's a wonderful place, with a decent craft beer scene in the area...

The Blue Jays do not have any catcher or shortstop prospects anywhere near the major leagues. 

Tulowitzki is signed at $20 million for 2016-19.  In order to provide "free agent" value for money, he's got to deliver about 2.5 WAR/season on average for that period.  At this point, I'd say that is about par for his expectation, maybe somewhat lower than is reasonable.  His contract provides for a salary of $14 million in 2020 (which by then will probably be worth between 1.5 and 2 WAR in free agent dollars).  It seems to me that highly reactive responses to Tulowitzki's issues so far this season don't really add anything.   If he cannot field his position well, as happened to Garciaparra, then it is a different situation.

Martin is signed at $20 million for 2017-19.  WAR for catchers is (along with for relief pitchers) the subject of the most dispute.  Martin is still a good defender, and perhaps ought to get some credit for the surprisingly good performance of the four starting pitchers he has caught.  I am reminded of Dave Dombrowski's decision to spend a lot of money to bring in Ivan Rodriguez for ages 32-36 after the Tigers' disastrous 2002-03 seasons to stabilize the pitching staff. 

Do I not bleed, Parker?

"by wrapping up Stroman, Pillar, Sanchez or Osuna in a deal that takes them into year 2-3 of FA. (eg: around their age 30 year, look at Chris Archer's contract for example) "

those 4 will cost us....$30-40m in 6yrs, based on Archer's contract?

and isn't Archer starting to look like a good example why being 28yrs old doesn't make you a safe investment?

So with media speculation, most of which coming out of Texas, that Bautista is going to get plunked this weekend, I was wondering which past or present Blue Jay would you most want out there if more than a bench clearing skirmish erupted (I am talking punches being thrown)?

From the past I was thinking Jon Rauch, Jose Canseco(on roids), or maybe Frank Thomas (although he was already older when with the Jays).

Present day Jay I would say Smoak or maybe Saunders or JD (injury risk withstanding).

For the record I think this is nonsense, I see not reason to plunk anyone in this circumstance. We did not try to injure nor dangerously pitch high and up to anyone of their players, which to me is the only legitimate reason to send a message back.

I am actually hoping for some shenanigans only to wake up our bats. We need something big to happen to get these bats woken from their season long slumber.

Just for shits and giggles, any thoughts on who else you would want out there from the past? Am I missing someone obvious?

melondough, surely the only proper answer to your question is George Bell (as Bruce Kison will certainly attest).

25.6/6 years for a guy who currently has a 3.2 xfip? I'll take that. (his babip is also currently 50 points higher than his career) I'm sure he'll stabilize.

ha.

george bell for sure. damaso may have pitched in with a lighter, too.

wouldn't mind a raging fulmer or lawrie in my corner, either.

How about Kawasaki in a brawl? He would strike a kung fu stance, shriek like a banshee and then babble incoherently. The opposing team would first stare in shock, then start laughing and forget what they wanted to fight about.

I'd want Cliff Johnson on my side if things got nasty, but Jose can probably take care of himself just fine.  It would be nice to have Dave Stewart around to supply the next day's death glare with accompanying welcome fastball.

"nothing shapiro has done has helped our future ability to win, in any way."

Hasn't signing Happ helped our future ability to win?

Or how about not signing Price? =)

Ah the Bell karate kick followed shortly by the Whitt home run where he yelled at Kison all the way around the bases.
FYI: that ended up being his last season (Kison that is). He wasn't horrible the rest of the year after that (40 1/3 IP 3.57 ERA 1 start 11 relief games) but that was the end for him.

et tu, pubster?

LOL! That cracked me up Island Boy. Yeah I want Kawasaka out there for sure, especially after a few beers. Didn't Stewart have a black belt?

Thanks for the info -- I'm surprised the second level seat are so expensive.

I don't want to pull a "that's not where I sit", but my preference is as close to the field up the 3rd baseline. Last year, I paid $143USD (face from a friend) at Fenway and $55 at the Dome Thursday games within one week from one another for essentially the same seat.

This year at the dome seat in section 128 close to the field is $76 for an upcoming Monday game. I went to Fenway about a month ago for the Patriots day game and sat in about that location. It is a totally unfair comparison but that seat was a very nice gift gratis from the same pal.

Twice the revenue/person might be a stretch but from this article: "Catching a Red Sox game in the historic ballpark isn’t cheap. Even the lowest-priced season tickets average $48 a game, which is the highest ticket price of any stadium surveyed. Fenway Park also has the highest prices on parking and beer. And a trip to Fenway wouldn’t be complete without indulging in a distinctive Fenway Frank, even if they are $5.25 each." ...and the margins on those Franks must be massive (tried one once, never again). Lastly, does Rogers even filter any of that TV revenue down to the Jays? From what I've read that is unclear.

Link disappeared -- here is the link referred to: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gobankingrates/most-and-least-expensive_b_9613010.html

Mark Whiten. Best shot to the pitcher's head I've seen after getting plunked.

Even more excitement and anticipation: The Rangers just called up Matt F. Bush.

I'll buy the figures in the Huffington Post article, Chris, as being representative.  The Red Sox may average just under 1 and a half times the revenue per attendee.  The Blue Jays can make up a lot of that ground thanks to higher capacity.  And as for Rogers' decision to not share all of the broadcast revenue associated with Jays broadcasts- that's a business decision but a poor excuse for not having a competitive payroll.

most rankings have us not at 20ish but mid 20s.

Kasi, which rankings are you referring to?  I posted a bunch of the higher profile sources last week, and the average ranking was 22nd.

I still think calling it a 'bottom ten' farm team is using arbitrary end-points to overstate the case.  There are 5-6 orgs that are undeniably at the bottom (LAA, Miami, Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, for sure,probably Arizona), and the Jays are in the next group with San Diego, San Fran, the White Sox, maybe the Royals - could be 19th, could be 23rd.   

Dave Parker and Dave Winfield sound about right to me.. (someone already mentioned Brad Fullmer..)

Between Sickels, Law, BP and BA, the best ranking is BP's 22nd. The others are 24, 25, 25.

Those are high profile.

Yup, along with Fangraphs, the highest profile rankings out there.

So the group you mention puts us at 24th, with some other, lower profile farm system evaluations ranking us even higher.  And they all mention how much upside the system has in the low minors (which is typically not a consideration for farm system rankings - they tend to refer to us as a system that could 'move fast').  So I'm still comfortable saying high 20s. 

Like I said, 5-6 systems objectively lower than ours.  we are in the next group.

I will say that, with the lower minors not playing yet, our upper system guys are underperforming overall and if that continues, my opinion will change. 
 
But Hypobole, I thought you said evaluation of the minors was a fools errand?

 

He said us fans are not qualified. Not that sites/orgs that do it for a living/attend games/talk to scouts/etc aren't. Fangraphs ranked them lower at 28th for Katoh and the other article by Farmsworth didn't have a ranking but it wasn't positive. Not a guy who watches minors but wouldn't surprise me from reading other people that Vlad Jr might not have as good a pro career as the guy AA traded for him to have less penalties. (DeJong)

Anyway all the sites say bottom ten and that's what SK said. I'm not sure what you're arguing. That they could be not bottom ten if our guys end up better than expected? Well you can say the same about most other orgs too. We're not scouts or paid to do this so I assume the risk/reward of low minor guys is baked into their systems/rankings.

I thought Hyperbole's point was that we, as fans, have no context for what a system looks like vs others, since we're hyper-focused on one system and don't really have knowledge of the others. All we're really doing is parsing the opinions of others when it comes to figuring out how Jays' prospects stack up.

And are we really trying to qualify ourselves out of a "bottom 10 system" when our system ranks from 22-24 out of 30 teams by prospect mavens (who have better basis for comparing systems then we do)? Isn't "bottom 10" the best way to refer to a system ranked as the 6th to 8th worst?

Every prospect site I have read (ones already mentioned here) had the Jays somewhere between 20-29, typically in the mid-20's. Hence, bottom 10 in baseball. That doesn't mean that the system can't improve organically as prospects move up, but as of now, that's where they rank. That's more than fair given that the team's best prospects are in low-A, meaning more difficult to grade highly, and pretty much every top prospect on the team save for Urena has started poorly to this point, so that ranking doesn't look bad as of yet.

remember, our prospect list would jump 10 spots if osuna and pompey were still considered prospects.

Pompey I can understand since he's still toiling in the minors, but Osuna shouldn't be counted obviously. Just like the Cubs and Sox and other teams with productive rookies from last years class wouldn't.

well, cubs and sox didn't have 20yr olds in mlb last year, and osuna's development path was non traditional.

osuna is the same age as red sox top prospects benintendi and moncada......who are toiling away in A+.

I'm not sure what you're arguing.

Fair enough.  What I'm inarticulately trying to say is that there are a lot of axioms tossed around as fact that haven't been proven - our window of contention closes next year, the long-term contracts of vets will become albatrosses,  trading prospects for vets is a bad idea and the best way to clean up the mess left by AA is to turn to a more conservative veteran like Shapiro. 

Part of this argument seems to be based on the long term prospects of our farm team.  I will happily concede that we are literally 'bottom ten' according to the more knowledgeable folks out there who peruse these systems and watch these players for a living. 

But many of these guys don't talk in terms of bottom ten, they talk tiers, and nobody has us in the bottom tier.  Further to that, as Sickels notes "the best hopes are guys at the very lowest levels" - guys not weighted as significantly in farm system rankings due to a lack of data and the variability of projection.  BP notes "Toronto could look a lot different a year from now with a healthy Max Pentecost and a stateside Vlad Guerrero, Jr. lurking in the system".  The FO team that had us as a top ten system (whoops, strike that) that had amassed enough prospect capital to go all-in last offseason is intact and I don't imagine Shapiro and Atkins want to mess much with that given their track record, especially in their first year. 

Have you looked at Lansing's pitching?  Lots of upside, and guys like Francisco Rios represent the lower level talent that could emerge this year - guys like Yennsy Diaz, Guadaloupe Chavez and Hansel Rodriguez.  Angel Perdomo has certainly emerged as a high end prospect this season. 

"Yup, along with Fangraphs, the highest profile rankings out there."

Arguably they were as good as any before Kiley McDaniel left to work with the Braves.

This year FG used BA's Top 30 prospect lists for their org rankings.

using my usual average war pace thingy.....25 and unders...

Stroman (25): 32gs, 4.7war ----- Betts (23): 1034pa, 5.2war
Sanchez (23): 18gs, 3.1war ----- Bogaerts (23): 1454pa, 3.1war
Travis (25): 238pa, 6.4war ----- Vazquez (25): 267pa, 3.2war
Pompey (23): 146pa, 2.5war ----- Rodriguez (23): 21gs, 3.0war
Osuna (21): 85.0ip, 1.7war ----- Swihart (24): 332pa, 2.0war
Hutch (25): 72gs, 1.3war ------- Owens (23): 14gs, 0.9war

Arguably they were as good as any before Kiley McDaniel left to work with the Braves.

I missed that happening - I'd been wondering why I'd only seen the KOTOH and the surplus WAR rankings.

I forgot to add to my last post another reason for prospect optimism (prospectimism?)

We are likely to have 1-3 comp picks after this offseason.  I think Saunders gets a QO if he keeps this up, along with Dickey - or at least one of the two, along with either Bautista or EE (I still expect us to resign one of the two).   

farnsworth was a massive upgrade over Kiley.

unfortunately he's just left fangraphs too.

"farnsworth was a massive upgrade over Kiley."

Thanks for the chuckle.

Sure Osuna is young, but being young and making the majors doesn't actually buy the Jays anything, He will still be a FA after he accrues six years of service time. That it happens when he is 26 versus 28/29 for other players doesn't matter. One could argue that rushing him to the majors and turning a guy who is probably our second best SP prospect outside of Stoman) into a reliever is a mistake. Would you rather have Osuna 20-26 as a reliever (or part of that being converted from reliever to starter at the major league level) or Osuna from 22-28 as a full time starter? I know which one I would like more.

Kiley hilariously ranked Blake Swihart a top 10 prospect in all of baseball last year. Kiley is just a stats nerd like the rest of us, not a baseball guy. He's a hard worker and a good networker and a good organizer, but he's no scout. Farnsworth is actually a baseball lifer from childhood, and a medical, physiology, and mechanics expert to boot. The expertise level isn't remotely close.

Kasi - we could have easily kept Osuna in the minors as one of the best starting prospects in the world, and our system would rank "better" as a result. Instead we have one of the best relievers in the league on a great contending team, and he'll become an MLB SP on the same sked.

Yeah except you seem to think that making the transition from reliever to starter will just happen and work. For one he'd need to be stretched out, and two skills needed to be a successful major league starter are much different than a reliever, Maybe he'll make the transition like you think, maybe it will take a couple years where he will not be a productive major league starter. Regardless it's a waste of an asset of his talent putting him as a closer, and I blame AA for that.

"Kiley is just a stats nerd like the rest of us, not a baseball guy. He's a hard worker and a good networker and a good organizer, but he's no scout."


Why do you spout such utter nonsense?

Kiley actually worked as a scout for 3 MLB teams.
He is currently Assistant Director of Baseball Operations for the Braves.

Kasi - another way to put it is would you rather have Osuna as a reliever and a division title in 2015 or Osuna as a starter and no idea if the Jays ever get to the playoffs again? Or maybe Osuna gets traded as part of the mid-season upgrades to get a closer.

Kiley has never actually been a scout. He's been the young newskool stats guy in a few shortlived stints in front offives. He specifically pointed out that his new job is also not actually scouting.

When it comes to actual scouting ability, you look at the guys they are higher on than the rest of the scouting world.

For Kiley, that was names like Swihart and Hoffman.

For Farnsworth, that was names like JD Martinez, Abreu, and Kang.

the results speak for themselves.

"Yeah except you seem to think that making the transition from reliever to starter will just happen and work. For one he'd need to be stretched out, and two skills needed to be a successful major league starter are much different than a reliever, Maybe he'll make the transition like you think, maybe it will take a couple years where he will not be a productive major league starter. Regardless it's a waste of an asset of his talent putting him as a closer, and I blame AA for that."

There are countless examples of great SP who started as RP. There is quite literally zero reason to think it should hurt him.

I think that's a fallacy John. Osuna was good last year no doubt, but they'd have won the division without him as well. And if Osuna got traded, then great we'd still have Hoffman. AA had a weakness in developing depth in the bullpen and rotation, which is why we had things like Castro and Osuna slotting into closer roles as rookies and a constant parade of hasbeens filling in for fifth starter spots whenever someone got injured,