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Buffalo racked up twenty hits as Casey Lawrence pitched well again. Rowdy Tellez had the game winning RBI as New Hampshire came from behind. Dunedin's game was suspended. Justin Maese pitched reasonably well but the bullpen blew his win. Vancouver and Bluefield lost close games, Bluefield in twenty innings.

Buffalo 10 Lehigh Valley 1

Buffalo outhit Lehigh Valley 20-3 and this game was a bit of a walk. It was badly needed after losses on Friday and Saturday. Dalton Pompey had a game, 4-5 with a walk and three RBI. He had a nine pitch walk to start the game and scored on a single by Darrell Ceciliani. Pompey drove in two runs as part of a three run fourth. Wilkin Castillo also had four hits. The Bisons didn't have a home run even though they scored ten runs. Jesus Montero had three hits, Shane Opitz had his first two AAA hits.

Casey Lawrence has been pitching well in his three starts since he was recalled to Buffalo. On Sunday he had a one hit shutout through six innings. Two doubles led to a run in the seventh and he was pulled, but it was an excellent start. Three relievers, including Franklin Morales, finished up.

New Hampshire 5 Portland 4

The Fisher Cats trailed 4-3 headed to the eighth. Christian Lopes singled and stole second. With two outs Jason Leblebijian drove in the tying run and moved to second on a fielding error. That brought Rowdy Tellez to the plate. He singled with a line drive to centre to put the Fisher Cats ahead. Chris Smith came out of the bullpen to get a six up, six down save.

Shane Dawson had a slightly more efficient start. On Sunday he managed to go six innings. However he was charged with four runs in those six innings. He gave up six hits and three walks for a 1.50 WHIP. He K'd 4. Eight New Hampshire hitters each had one hit.

Charlotte 3 Dunedin 3 - game suspended after nine innings

Dunedin trailed 3-2 headed to the bottom of the ninth with Chris Colabello leading off. Colabello reached with a soft line drive to right. It was his only hit of the night. Richard Urena ran for Colabello. Charlotte got two outs before Danny Jansen reached on an infield single. Mike Reeves was hit by a pitch to load the bases. With the last two being catchers both were pinch run for. Those substitutions were not necessary as the ever exciting wild pitch let Urena come home to tie the game. Jansen and Jonathan Davis had two hits, one of Davis' hits was a home run. When the game continues on Monday it will be all hands on deck after all the pinch runners used in the ninth.

Francisco Rios started for Dunedin and went five innings. He only conceded one run on four hits, and he didn't walk anyone. But on the other hand he had just one K. Rios was pulled after five innings and 71 pitches. Starlyn Suriel went three innings and gave up two runs, one earned.

Lansing 5 Burlington 7

Lansing had a 5-4 lead until Josh DeGraaf gave up three runs in the eighth. The blown save took a first A ball win away from Justin Maese. Maese is just 19 years old and this is a fairly aggressive promotion. Maese had some positives and negatives in this first start. He threw just 77 pitches in getting though six innings. He had a 10-3 ground ball, fly ball out ratio, and he walked just one. On the negative side he did not have a strike out and he was tagged for four runs on eight hits. Maese loaded the bases in the first inning by hitting two batters and walking one. But he settled down and retired nine of the last ten hitters he faced. In retrospect, maybe he should have been left in.

Lansing scored two in the first, one run came when John LaPrise stole home as part of a double steal. Carl Wise doubled in the second run. Juan Kelly hit a two run home run in the third. Wise scored the go-ahead run in the sixth when Ryan Metzler singled. Kelly was 3-4 and Connor Panas 2-4, both hits were doubles.

Vancouver 3 Boise 4

Vancouver went down 4-0 as Dalton Rodriguez had a bad start. Gino Encina pitched four shutout innings in relief to try and let the hitters get back into the game. They tried and had the tying run on second twice in the last three innings but could not bring him home.

The Canadians had just seven hits, catcher Javier Hernandez had two.

Bluefield 4 Greeneville 5 - 20 innings

Mike Green summarised this game...."Bluefield lost a 20-inning marathon last night. They left 20 runners on base and went 2-22 with runners in scoring position. Ouch. They had 16 hits including 2 homers, 10 walks and 34 strikeouts. They had the bases loaded and one out in the top of the ninth and couldn't score. They followed it up with two on and one out in the twelfth, a runner on second and nobody out in the fourteenth, and runners on second and third with one out in the sixteenth and couldn't score. They grounded into a double play, they flew into a double play, they grounded into fielder's choice at the plate, they laid down sacrifices, they popped up and they struck out. Torture. Greenville scored the winning run on a ground ball single, a wild pitch and another ground ball single." Thanks Mike.

The teams combined for seven runs in the first five innings, then one run over the next 14. The Jays bullpen pitched 14 shutout innings before Juandy Mendoza took the loss. Osman Gutierrez had started and it was he who gave up the four runs in his five innings. Some of the batting lines were ugly, Matt Morgan had an 0-7. Nash Knight was 4-9 with a triple and a home run. Levi Scott was 3-9 with two doubles and a home run but he struck out five times. Vladdy Jr had three hits, three K's and two walks.

GCL Blue Jays

The GCL Jays did not play on Sunday but they continued to win on Friday and Saturday. They had a 10-0 win on Saturday, Bo Bichette was 3-3, and was a triple short of the cycle. Ryan Gold,an 18 year old catcher who was a 27th round pick in this years draft, went 2-4 and his BA is now .269. Thats good for a kid. Dany Jimenez started and went six innings. He only allowed one hit and had seven K's.

The Jays won 3-1 on Friday. Gold and Manuel Herazo each had two hits. Guadalupe Chavez pitched six shutout innings with 3 K's and no walks.

Three Stars

Third Star - Nash Knight

Second Star - Casey Lawrence

First Star - Dalton Pompey


On Saturday Pompey and Matt Dominguez homered in Buffalo's loss. Danny Barnes pitched two perfect innings to get his ERA down to 0.77. Richard Urena had two hits, one of them was a home run. Connor Panas had two more doubles among his three hits. JB Woodman went 4-5 with a double. TJ Zeuch and Zach Jackson made their first appearances for the Canadians. For Bluefield Hansel Rodriguez went four innings, getting 12 outs, and nine of them were strikeouts.

Conner Greene went six innings on Friday, six hits, three walks and three K's. Richard Urena had two more hits on Friday. Angel Perdomo went six innings with eight K's, no walks.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#326534) #
Font has struggled badly since being acquired from Ottawa.
Parker - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#326535) #
I know Nash Knight is old for rookie ball, but you gotta love that plate discipline.

He's also among the league leaders in Coolest Name Evar.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#326538) #
mentioned it in the other thread - vladdy with 5sb in 20gms is a nice surprise.
Parker - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#326540) #
Agreed, ugly - this is very encouraging. He's never been scouted as having plus-plus speed, which you wouldn't expect anyway, for a 6'3 kid who goes 235 or so. It's possible he's just a really smart baserunner. Small sample caveat still applies, but it's still an exciting development!
Parker - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#326541) #
Whoa, oops. I accidentally looked up his dad's height/weight. My apologies.

Three different publications have Junior listed at 6'1/210, which is still pretty solid for a guy with those kind of base-stealing numbers. Vlad Sr. had a couple seasons where he stole 77 bases between ages 26-27, but was also caught 36 times. Not a great ratio, but there's obviously some quickness in the Guerrero pedigree.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#326544) #
yeah papa was a freak of an athlete.
jerjapan - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#326545) #
Vladdy is the best story in our minors right now, and those steals only add to his appeal.  Been a long time since I was this excited for a Jays hitting prospect, SSS and all.

Chris Smith - a 27 year old righty with the save in NH - is a great story of resilience.  Switched to pitching late in his college career, never got a chance with an org, he struggled even to catch on with the indy leagues for years but since 2014 has been lights out in the low minors.  This year he's continued his success into AA.  Easy guy to root for.

bpoz - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#326548) #
Vlad is hot right now. Hitting well in his last 10 games. Also 8 bb and only 4 Ks.

Very young so he may grow taller.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#326549) #
ceciliani has been hot for a while too now. with lake coming through so far, and pompey and ceciliani finally healthy and productive, we have a few OF options now.

Vladdy's a great story for sure....but he's got surprisingly stiff competition for that from the rest of this gutted system.

for example, Urena has a 130wrc+ as an underaged good glove SS in A+, and has cut down his K% to a quality level this year. That is no joke of a performance.
Parker - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#326551) #
Vlad Jr. is awesome so far, no question. Let's not dismiss Rowdy so quickly, though. The kid can flat-out rake.
jerjapan - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#326559) #
Who do you guys have as top ten most interesting minor league performances this year? 

For prospects IMO:  Vladdy (kid turned 17 only 4 months ago!), Angel Perdomo, SRF (given his recent surge), Tellez, Bo Bichette, Yorman Rodriguez and Danny Barnes (not exactly a prospect, I know).

For lesser lights but interesting regardless:

Jason Leblejian - possibly an ace utility IF, Chris Rowley -2 years away from the game in the military, Chris Smith - indie league warrior.

If there's an under the radar story to the org right now it seems to be injuries and comebacks - Alford's year is a major concern, Pompey worries me as well  - but great to see Jacob Anderson, Matt Smoral, Patrick Murphy and others back playing. 

Mike Green - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#326561) #
Bo Bichette has gone 3-5 today with his 4th homer in another GCL rout.  The Baby Jays are well on their way to 18-3.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#326562) #
that's gotta bring his wrc+ up to 250 or something ludicrous like that. that's worth a wow.
eldarion - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#326563) #
I echo the comments about Tellez. The hardest jump in the minor leagues is the one to AA and he's handled it beautifully. He's been flirting with an overall OPS of .900 for a few weeks now, which is absolutely terrific for a 21 year old. He should see Buffalo before year's end and make his Jays debut some time next year as a 22 year old. For a position player in the Jays system, that's impressive. Particularly one with seemingly legit power.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#326564) #
For me age is always a big deal, so i can't rate overagers like perdomo as exciting no matter what their stats are.

There's 3 genuinely exciting stories in the system this year, imo - 3 guys putting up outstanding seasons by any measure, made even more outstanding by the fact they are young for their level, and have relatively few holes in their profile - Urena, SRF, and Tellez. IMO they are putting up top-50 caliber seasons this year.

Vladdy may well join that group as he's even younger for his level and hitting well above average. I'll hold back for the moment due to his small sample size and not quite outstanding performance yet.

Rios has been a nice story but more of a "noname becomes legit solid prospect" rather than anythinh super exciting.

Other potentially exciting small samples belong to Maese and Bichette.

it's been a strange year for sure - what we though was a gutted system saw its 2 highest rated prospects (Alford/Greene) faceplant in the worst way, yet somehow the system seems to have had a good to very good year overall.

Working on my prospect list again and I've forced myself to move some guys around a bit....this is what it looks like now:


will be different next week, I'm sure.
jensan - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#326567) #
Harris, must move up this list, he has a very solid season. Zeuch ahead of Harris, no way.

Where last season, the prospects did not stand-out except for Alford & Greene, this year the revival of many prospects and top end draftees finally rising up the ladder.

Should the TBJs prospects jump up the ladder for the remainder, especially with respect to Reid Foley & Harris moving to the New Hampshire level for next year will be very important to enhancing the SP and Bullpen in the major league
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#326568) #
Harris is still stuck in A ball. Not really even close to New Hampshire. He has to get to Dunedin first. And both Perdomo and Borucki are pitching better than him at the same age, and arguably have as or more impressive arsenals of pitches.

I really don't see how I can move him up. The guys ahead of match or better him in both performance and upside imo.
jerjapan - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#326571) #
Ugly, I agree with you that Urena is awesome, but for whatever reason, I expected him to perform this well. I may be sleeping a bit on just how great of a year he is having.

That's why I have Perdomo on my list - he was just an interesting arm until last year IMO.  This year his stats pop - I think it's the org keeping him where he is, not his results.  He'd have been promoted by now under the AA regime.

I do agree with you that the system is having a good year - maybe a very good year.  Once the lower levels started playing, it became obvious where our talent lies - the top three teams are 2 games over .500, the rest of the affiliates are 33 games over. 

bpoz - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#326575) #
Tellez is really impressing me for the many reasons that have already been mentioned.

NH is a weak team according to their record. Their rotation is "gives their team a chance to win", which is mediocre rather than bad/weak.

Tellez is offense. He and D Smith Jr have 52 RBI. That impresses me. So are they clutch hitters, if that exists. Are they getting protection in the batting order.
greenfrog - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#326578) #
Per Keith Law a few days ago:

Bryan: Rowdy Tellez is tearing up AA of late as a 21 year old. Can he possibly become a league average 1b/DH in MLB? I believe I recall you saying he has a “long swing”–will that prevent him from reaching the big leagues?

Klaw: No. Can’t hit quality pitching.

Of course, some of Law's past predictions include that Syndergaard's lack of an effective breaking ball would prevent him from becoming more than a mid-rotation starter, and that Sanchez's delivery was impairing his control and that should not be used as a starting pitcher. So make what you will of his assessment of Tellez.
PeterG - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#326579) #
translation: Tellez will be a major league star who will have a lengthy and illustrious career.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#326580) #
keith law still can't believe we deliberately ruined sanchez.

he was adamant that thor would never start in the bigs, numbers be damned.

travis couldn't hit good pitching.

keith law is the trump of prospect writers. doesn't know a famn thing but will BS with big ball until you believe he does.
uglyone - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#326582) #
damn I wish I could find his quote but Law was adamant Noah couldn't start becaue of the way he flicked his wrist on his curve or something. it was hilarious.

and then there was him explaining away his overrating of wallace because he now noticed he had "wide hips".

and then of course his famous claim that the jays had fundamentally shortened Sanchez' stride and killed all his explosiveness.

just hilarious the balls on the guy - who was only in baseball due to numbercrunching not scouting - to just outright make crap up. and never back down.
Parker - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#326583) #
Law sure loves Baretto since the Jays traded him away.

Like ugly said, it's hilarious how a guy who is even less qualified than actual scouts to make those kinds of ridiculous scouting-based statements. He's as insufferable as Mike Wilner, only with a bigger audience. His inexplicable arrogance makes it easy for both traditional scouting types AND sabermetricians to collectively shake their heads in disgust.
Mike Green - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#326584) #
Tellez was taken out of tonight's game in the fourth inning with an injury.
SK in NJ - Monday, July 18 2016 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#326585) #
I've been on the "read what Keith Law says and expect the opposite to happen" bandwagon for a while now. He not only provides nothing of substance when it comes to prospects, but his description of certain things a pitcher or hitter does just screams like a high school student adding unnecessary words into an essay to make it sound more intelligent. Not sure why he has such an audience.

With that said, if Law bashes a Jays prospect, please post it. That way we know to expect good things from that player in the future.
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#326586) #
In one of his last baseball Abstracts, Bill James said that after all of the work he had done in the field of baseball analysis, if there was one thing he would like people to have learned from his work, it would be that minor league numbers are, especially for hitters, highly predictive of major league success or failure. You have to make the appropriate adjustments for parks, leagues, and age, but once you factor all of those things in, you will have some good predictive data. He pointed out that if you look at successful minor league hitters (again, making the appropriate adjustments), who were given a lengthy opportunity in the big leagues (not just a hundred AB's here and there) it is extremely unusual for them to fail in the big leagues, barring a significant career changing injury. I tend to ignore comments from people who say that a player has a "bad body" or a "bad swing" or won't be able to hit quality pitching, etc. if the player has really good minor league numbers.

Devon Travis is an example. When the Jays traded for him, I looked through his entire minor league career, and I thought, wow, this guy is going to be a very good mlb hitter, especially for a middle infielder. I saw reports that he was short, or had other issues that would make it tough for him to succeed in the big leagues, and just thought, but look at the numbers, guys, he can hit, period. I think the same about Tellez. I don't care what his swing looks like, or what his body looks like, although if he gets really heavy, it might shorten his career, but the numbers for his age tell me he is likely to be very good mlb hitter.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 03:24 AM EDT (#326587) #
"He pointed out that if you look at successful minor league hitters (again, making the appropriate adjustments), who were given a lengthy opportunity in the big leagues (not just a hundred AB's here and there) it is extremely unusual for them to fail in the big leagues, barring a significant career changing injury."

Extremely unusual? I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. Numbers are definitely somewhat predictive but there are plenty of players who tear up the minor leagues who can't hit in the major leagues. The lower you go in the minors, the more true that is. I looked at one year of Baseball America prospects ten years ago and of the top-25 prospects, you had guys like Brandon Wood, Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Milledge, Andy Marte, Andy Laroche, Conor Jackson, Ian Stewart, etc...Players who all hit very well in the minors and none of whom became much of a major leaguer. (And players like Delmon Young and Stephen Drew who became useful but not great major leaguers) It's not rare at all. I like Tellez and hitting the way he is hitting is a great sign, and would give Law's scouting a 20/80 but scouting does matter still and hitting well in the minors is no guarantee you will hit in the majors.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#326589) #
Yeah, performance is a very important indicator, but minor league numbers translating to big league success is not a guarantee. What's good about Tellez is that he's young and performing extremely well at a very critical level (the A+ to AA jump). It's a good sign, but I don't think it would be 'unusual' if he failed, especially given his lack of defensive value (he'd need to really hit to be valuable). Look no further than Justin Smoak and countless others in the 1B/DH category to see that theory played out.

With that said, I do like to see performance in the minors before I get excited about a prospect, especially in AA/AAA, so Tellez should definitely be taken seriously right now. A wRC+ of over 140 in AA as a 21-year old is no joke.
CeeBee - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#326590) #
"Klaw: No. Can’t hit quality pitching."

Is it not true that most major league hitters have trouble with quality pitching as well?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#326591) #
Yeah it's always important to acknowledge that most prospects - even most good prospects - fail.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#326592) #
and we should never ignore basic tools.

we can still say that henry owens or justin nicolino or brad mills or chad girodo are gonna be in tough given their 87mph heat no matter how good their stats are.

we can say a brett cecil or eduardo rodriguez will be in trouble if they can't find a third pitch.

though now that I think about it I have a harder time making that argument for.hitters - for hitters, the tools are almost always seen in the stats - K%/babip/avg gives you a very good idea of what their hit tool is like, iso gives you a very good idea of their power, and bb%/k% gives you a very good idea about their approach.

Now that I think on it it might be that it would take a much more trained and experienced eye to see a swing flaw despite good numbers than it is to point out obvious pitching weaknesses like subpar velocity or a lack of a 3rd pitch despite great numbers.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#326593) #
Devon Travis is an example. When the Jays traded for him, I looked through his entire minor league career, and I thought, wow, this guy is going to be a very good mlb hitter, especially for a middle infielder. I saw reports that he was short, or had other issues that would make it tough for him to succeed in the big leagues, and just thought, but look at the numbers, guys, he can hit, period. I think the same about Tellez. I don't care what his swing looks like, or what his body looks like, although if he gets really heavy, it might shorten his career, but the numbers for his age tell me he is likely to be very good mlb hitter.

Same. It's funny to think that in this era, so far after Moneyball and sabermetrics have become accepted in baseball, that people still so often ignore actual performance in place of how someone looks while wearing a uniform.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#326595) #
Comparing Travis Snider, who was also considered a premium hitting prospect, to Rowdy, what strikes me are the K%'s. Travis was moved a bit more aggresively, but his lowest K% was in rookie ball at 20.8%, 27.4% at age 20 in New Hampshire.

Tellez is a year older at the AA level, but his K rate is only 19%. Only in the AFL has it been over 20%.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#326596) #
K% is an important factor in predicting success for a prospect.  There aren't too many prospects who fail with good slash lines/wRC+ for age and a low K rate at AA or AAA.  Obviously, some do. 
Parker - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#326597) #
Great comments all around.

When I hear "short" to dismiss a player, I can't help but think of Yogi Berra or Kirby Puckett. Whitey Ford. With "bad body", it's Tony Gwynn and David Wells. Or Babe Ruth, for crying out loud.

Of course, a jackass like Law would say these guys are just the exception to the rule. Never mind that EVERY MLB player is exceptional from that perspective - the rule is actually that NOBODY is good enough to play baseball for a living at the MLB level.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#326598) #
yeah Snider's K% was a warning sign that shouldn't have been ignored. I'm also not sure he was the most coachable player in the world, which would make it hardsr to address weaknesses.
Parker - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#326599) #
Yeah, Snider was widely considered to be "intense and brooding"... but at the same time (often in the same articles!) he was praised for having overcome a lot of adversity earlier on in his personal life, and based on this the consensus was that he would handle any baseball struggles in stride.

Those reports seemed pretty conflicted to me at the time and I suspected it was a case of trying to cover all the bases so they could claim to be right no matter how things worked out.
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 19 2016 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#326617) #
Glevin - to clarify, the study James did was looking at guys who had reached the major leagues, so he could evaluate their big league performance compared to their minor league performance, so guys who did well in the low minors, but faded out in AA or AAA would not have been included. He was more interested in the guys who hit really well in AAA but then didn't hit in the big leagues, again, considering environment, and he found very few. I don't have time to look through the list of players you mention, but I did look at the first one, Brandon Wood. If you make the adjustments for parks and leagues that he played in, which were all very strong hitters' leagues and parks in the minors, he looks to me like a guy who would hit for a low average, but with power in the big leagues, and that was pretty much what he did, although the average was even lower than might have been anticipated, but then he never got even 300 AB's in a season, and he played in very good pitchers' parks in the big leagues. Hermedia I had a quick look at as well, and his first big league season was about bang on what I would have thought based on his minor league numbers, but then he faded badly. Don't know if there was an injury issue or not - interesting case.
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